At first sight this looks to be a crushing double. Red has twenty-eight numbers to hit a White blot. He already leads by twenty-two pips in the race and there is a very real gammon threat.
The truth is very different. This is a double but only just and the take is trivial. Why is that?
- White has a strong home board so a hit will be very powerful. Fifty percent of the time White will enter next turn after a hit by Red.
- White’s anchor is a powerful asset which provides equity until the end of the game.
- Red’s blot on White’s 3-pt is still a liability rather than an asset.
- Red has a dilly builder on the 2-pt. It would be much better placed on Red’s 5-pt.
- On Red’s eight misses White has a very playable position.
Not doubling as Red is an error but dropping as White is a quadruple, blunder.
I hope you will agree that this is a very instructive problem.
