is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 104

11 point match

pip: 122 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=--BACCB-A-----bb--cccbB-A-:1:1:1:41:6:5:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	24/23 5/1	eq: -0.727
	Player: Opponent: 16.32% (G:0.71% B:0.01%) 83.68% (G:9.59% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.729...-0.725) - [95.0%] Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/3	eq: -0.729 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 16.57% (G:1.14% B:0.02%) 83.43% (G:10.57% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.730...-0.727) - [5.0%] Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
3.	Rollout2	5/1 4/3	eq: -0.737 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 16.55% (G:1.09% B:0.03%) 83.45% (G:11.17% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.741...-0.734) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 55 seconds
4.	Rollout2	24/23 8/4	eq: -0.742 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 16.32% (G:0.80% B:0.02%) 83.68% (G:10.81% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.746...-0.738) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 56 seconds
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 5/1 4/3
[ 6] 8/3
[ 4] 24/23 5/1


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3

First let’s play 4/3 with the 1 then think about the 4.

5/1 saves a 6 but at the cost of leaving a blot on the 1 point with only 6 covers. Also, after that move we have a lot of rolls which crash our board.

8/4 on the other hand, gives us a 5 point board with no blots. When we leave our anchor, Neil could point on us or hit loose. If he hits loose, he will have to be mindful of the fact that a return hit from us with such a good board will probably be fatal.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/23 5/1

The strongest contender should be 8/3 forming a strong 5 point board. It might even be the best play. After this play any shot we get will be almost a winning shot.

Since we will get only few indirect shots next roll, if any the drawbacks of making the 5 point are to be considered carefully: We will be in considerable danger of being forced to leave from our 22 point anchor with a 6, what would expose our remaining checkers to an attack of high gammon potential. Generally speaking we need the timing that we gain by freeing our checker from the 24 point. Since we will have in most cases time to build our board before we hit a shot and 24/23 8/4 is inflexible, 24/23 5/1 would be my play.

5/1 4/3 saves a 6 but leaves a blot on the ace what reduces the advantage of the 5 point prime in case we hit a shot next roll. Anyway we probably rather should run with a 6 next roll than crunch our board.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 104

11 point match

pip: 117 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-ABBBBB-A-----bb--cccbB-A-:1:1:-1:53:6:5:0:11:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	7/2 5/2	eq: +0.784
	Player: Opponent: 84.35% (G:13.26% B:0.43%) 15.65% (G:1.19% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.780...+0.788) - [100.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 25 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/7 10/5	eq: +0.702 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 82.44% (G:9.85% B:0.30%) 17.56% (G:0.99% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.698...+0.705) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 42 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/2 5/2.

Their blot on my ace point is a liability now. I think I should play to increase the pressure on it. This means that I make the 2 point. I can clear my outfield points later by landing on my 4 prime. Their board can also crack. I think I am winning more gammons by making the 2 point and not sacrificing any game wins to get them.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 96

11 point match

pip: 117 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-ABBBBB-A-----bb--bcbbBbA-:1:1:1:41:6:5:0:11:10

to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 114

11 point match

pip: 138 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=---ABBD-BA----cc--cbbbB-A-:1:1:1:44:6:5:0:11:10

to play 44

1.	Rollout1	9/5 8/4 6/2(2)	eq: -0.681
	Player: Opponent: 18.36% (G:1.26% B:0.04%) 81.64% (G:9.91% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.683...-0.680) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
2.	Rollout1	9/1 8/4 6/2	eq: -0.690 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 17.76% (G:0.95% B:0.02%) 82.24% (G:9.31% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.692...-0.689) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
3.	Rollout2	9/1 6/2(2)	eq: -0.693 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 18.06% (G:1.13% B:0.02%) 81.94% (G:10.06% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.697...-0.689) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 10 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/4(2) 6/2(2)	eq: -0.695 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 17.92% (G:1.22% B:0.03%) 82.08% (G:10.22% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.699...-0.691) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 31 seconds
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 9/5 8/4 6/2(2)
[ 4] 9/1 8/4 6/2
[ 3] 9/1 6/2(2)


Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/5 8/4 6/2(2)

We just rolled a lot of pips, so we need to improve our board with 6/2(2), then maximise our covers for the 4 and 1 points with 9/5 8/4.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 9/5 8/4 6/2(2)

Building our board.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 104

11 point match

pip: 122 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=--BACCB-A-----bb--cccbB-A-:1:1:1:41:6:5:0:11:10

to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 132

11 point match

pip: 152 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=----A-E-DBb-b-ba--bbbbB-A-:1:1:1:53:6:5:0:11:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	9/4 8/5	eq: -0.671
	Player: Opponent: 17.99% (G:1.85% B:0.07%) 82.01% (G:8.89% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.675...-0.666) - [99.3%] Duration: 44 minutes 00 second
2.	Rollout1	8/3 6/3	eq: -0.679 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 18.12% (G:2.11% B:0.07%) 81.88% (G:9.97% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.683...-0.674) - [0.7%] Duration: 40 minutes 38 seconds
3.	Rollout1	9/4 6/3	eq: -0.682 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 17.62% (G:1.77% B:0.08%) 82.38% (G:9.06% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.686...-0.678) - [0.0%] Duration: 42 minutes 52 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/5 8/3	eq: -0.698 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 17.39% (G:2.17% B:0.17%) 82.61% (G:10.27% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.702...-0.693) - [0.0%] Duration: 46 minutes 25 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 9/4 8/5
[15] 8/3 6/3
[ 1] 8/5 8/3


Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/4 8/5

We need to build our board, so that when we hit one of Neil’s checkers we have the best chance of containing it.

We want our 5 point. As we cannot make it here, let’s make the 4 point and slot the 5 point with 9/4 8/5.

8/3 6/3 is also great but the 5 point is the 5 point. In a chouette, I would not argue with 8/3 6/3.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 9/4 8/5

First make the highest homeboard points.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 132

11 point match

pip: 144 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=----BAE-CAb-b-ba--bbbbB-A-:1:1:-1:65:6:5:0:11:10

to play 65

1.	Rollout1	15/10 13/7	eq: +0.638
	Player: Opponent: 81.36% (G:7.44% B:0.23%) 18.64% (G:1.47% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.633...+0.642) - [100.0%] Duration: 38 minutes 18 seconds
2.	Rollout1	15/10 11/5	eq: +0.623 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 80.44% (G:8.20% B:0.30%) 19.56% (G:1.99% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.618...+0.628) - [0.0%] Duration: 37 minutes 37 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/10 13/7.

I am now 23 pips up. I’d love to make my 8 point, but if I just come home to my 4 prime I am happy. My natural play is 15/10 13/7. So let’s looks at the shots. Do they hit with 64? I don’t care. But do they hit with 66 or 55… I hate that, but I get returns and I can lose to those rolls anyhow and now or later. I’ll play 15/10 13/7 and if I cannot make my 8 point next turn, I hope to find a safe play as their board will be better.


USBGF Members: 51 8/3 6/5


is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 121

11 point match

pip: 138 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=---ABBD-BAa-a-bb--cbbbB-A-:1:1:-1:43:6:5:0:11:10

to play 43

1.	Rollout1	15/11 13/10	eq: +0.654
	Player: Opponent: 82.21% (G:6.29% B:0.20%) 17.79% (G:0.75% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.650...+0.658) - [100.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 23 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/6	eq: +0.620 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 80.85% (G:6.76% B:0.23%) 19.15% (G:1.54% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.616...+0.624) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 19 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/11 13/10.

My 10 and 11 points are ideally situated as stepping stones since they are 7 and 8 points in front of their forward anchor. I’ll use these stepping stones, since I am afraid to leave a shot now that their board is shaping up nicely.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 114

11 point match

pip: 138 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=---ABBD-BA----cc--cbbbB-A-:1:1:1:44:6:5:0:11:10

to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 137

11 point match

pip: 157 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=------E-EBb-d-a---bbbbAAA-:1:1:1:41:6:5:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	23/22 8/4	eq: -0.663
	Player: Opponent: 18.70% (G:2.51% B:0.14%) 81.30% (G:10.07% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.668...-0.658) - [99.2%] Duration: 59 minutes 24 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/22 9/5	eq: -0.671 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 18.68% (G:2.43% B:0.11%) 81.32% (G:10.70% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.676...-0.666) - [0.8%] Duration: 54 minutes 48 seconds
3.	Rollout1	23/22 6/2	eq: -0.677 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 18.40% (G:2.18% B:0.11%) 81.60% (G:10.57% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.683...-0.672) - [0.0%] Duration: 55 minutes 21 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/23 8/4	eq: -0.700 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 19.28% (G:2.89% B:0.18%) 80.72% (G:14.67% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.705...-0.695) - [0.0%] Duration: 53 minutes 53 seconds
5.	Rollout1	24/23 9/5	eq: -0.713 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 18.96% (G:2.70% B:0.15%) 81.04% (G:14.99% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.719...-0.707) - [0.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 33 seconds
6.	Rollout1	9/5 6/5	eq: -0.719 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 20.05% (G:3.17% B:0.13%) 79.95% (G:17.29% B:1.01%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.724...-0.713) - [0.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 48 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 23/22 8/4
[ 9] 23/22 9/5
[ 7] 9/5 6/5


Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/22 9/5

It’s always good to grab the anchor if we get the chance – it is a good insurance policy.

Then we have to decide on 9/5 slotting the best point or 8/4 unstacking. Over the board I would play 9/5.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 23/22 8/4

The first choice is between 9/5 6/5 and 23/22 x/x. Since Neil has neither checkers in our homeboard nor on the bar holding the 5 point at this moment appears less important than holding an anchor. 23/22 is the choice. Two reasonable plays for the 4 remain. 9/5 slots the better point whereas 8/4 keeps the 9 point and brings a more flexible distribution which overall will make it easier for us to build our board.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 137

11 point match

pip: 152 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=----A-E-DBb-d-a---bbbbB-A-:1:1:-1:32:6:5:0:11:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	13/11 13/10	eq: +0.648
	Player: Opponent: 80.92% (G:9.40% B:0.36%) 19.08% (G:2.26% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.643...+0.653) - [100.0%] Duration: 55 minutes 58 seconds
2.	Rollout1	15/12 13/11	eq: +0.634 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 80.29% (G:9.52% B:0.39%) 19.71% (G:2.30% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.629...+0.639) - [0.0%] Duration: 54 minutes 05 seconds
3.	Rollout1	15/10	eq: +0.618 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 79.80% (G:9.08% B:0.32%) 20.20% (G:2.24% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.614...+0.623) - [0.0%] Duration: 49 minutes 39 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/10 11/9	eq: +0.617 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 78.53% (G:12.68% B:0.63%) 21.47% (G:3.89% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.611...+0.622) - [0.0%] Duration: 57 minutes 07 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 13/10.

There are a couple of plays to continue with my plan to safely dominate the outfield for now. 13/11 looks good and then I find a 3. 15/12 is diversified, but I don’t want to release control over their 66 joker. So I slightly prefer 13/10. This leaves only four shots which come at a great cost if they hit. Since I don’t care if they hit the 7 shot after 13/10, I am basically leaving zero shots.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 132

11 point match

pip: 152 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=----A-E-DBb-b-ba--bbbbB-A-:1:1:1:53:6:5:0:11:10

to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 146

11 point match

pip: 160 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a----E-EBa-d-a---bbbb-AAA:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10

to play 21

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22	eq: -0.701
	Player: Opponent: 23.51% (G:5.07% B:0.30%) 76.49% (G:24.38% B:1.39%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.708...-0.695) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 24/23	eq: -0.747 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 19.90% (G:3.82% B:0.22%) 80.10% (G:20.70% B:0.85%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.753...-0.740) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.	Rollout1	Bar/23 6/5	eq: -0.788 (-0.087)
	Player: Opponent: 21.58% (G:3.97% B:0.25%) 78.42% (G:27.06% B:1.58%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.795...-0.781) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
4.	Rollout1	Bar/23 8/7	eq: -0.835 (-0.133)
	Player: Opponent: 20.71% (G:3.95% B:0.22%) 79.29% (G:29.05% B:1.72%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.842...-0.828) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
5.	Rollout1	Bar/23 9/8	eq: -0.851 (-0.150)
	Player: Opponent: 18.63% (G:3.49% B:0.19%) 81.37% (G:26.03% B:1.45%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.857...-0.845) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
6.	Rollout1	Bar/24 8/6	eq: -0.857 (-0.155)
	Player: Opponent: 18.42% (G:3.78% B:0.24%) 81.58% (G:25.88% B:1.76%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.863...-0.850) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
7.	Rollout1	Bar/24 6/4	eq: -0.857 (-0.156)
	Player: Opponent: 20.30% (G:3.86% B:0.19%) 79.70% (G:29.29% B:2.18%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.864...-0.850) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] b/22
[ 9] b/23 6/5
[ 2] b/23 24/23
[ 1] b/24 6/4


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/22

Bar/23 6/5 is what I first thought is best and I originally wrote the following: “Having established the 23 point, we should not worry too much about gammons. Yet we are still in a bad position. So we look out for a play with best turnaround potential. Having not much to lose by getting hit slotting the 5 point appears to be the strongest play.”

Finding a good play and not looking out for a better play is a main source for blunders.

Having thought twice and after consultation of XG, bar/22 is the only play: The threat of being primed is huge and the risk of splitting our back checkers by playing bar/22 is small because Neil has no builders yet. At the same time our offence and timing is weak no matter how we play. This is why the gain of the defensive play bar/22 is higher than the gain of the offensive slotting of the 5 point.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 146

11 point match

pip: 157 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a----E-EBa-d-a---bbbbAAA-:1:1:-1:63:6:5:0:11:10

to play 63

1.	Rollout1	24/15	eq: +0.637
	Player: Opponent: 78.71% (G:13.36% B:0.63%) 21.29% (G:3.15% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.634...+0.639) - [98.7%] Duration: 6 hours 25 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/18 13/10	eq: +0.633 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 76.97% (G:17.66% B:0.98%) 23.03% (G:4.90% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.630...+0.635) - [1.3%] Duration: 6 hours 26 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/10 11/5	eq: +0.619 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 74.04% (G:23.18% B:1.36%) 25.96% (G:6.05% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.612...+0.626) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/15.

I could make some more aggressive complicating plays taking some risks for some more gains, but it seems natural to take the simple path and hop out 24/15. This leave only six shots, and if I am hit I have return shots. My plan is to play what I call 15 vs. 3. My 15 checkers are all in the outfield and can play with little interference vs. their three checkers back in my board.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 137

11 point match

pip: 157 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=------E-EBb-d-a---bbbbAAA-:1:1:1:41:6:5:0:11:10

to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 146

11 point match

pip: 153 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a----E-DBa-dBa---bbbb-AA-:1:1:1:53:6:5:0:11:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	8/3 6/3	eq: -0.463
	Player: Opponent: 29.81% (G:8.58% B:0.41%) 70.19% (G:19.24% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.470...-0.457) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.	Rollout1	13/8 13/10*	eq: -0.497 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 29.24% (G:8.99% B:0.55%) 70.76% (G:21.35% B:1.10%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.503...-0.490) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.	Rollout1	13/10* 6/1*	eq: -0.530 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 29.83% (G:10.04% B:0.48%) 70.17% (G:25.52% B:1.98%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.538...-0.522) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61996098 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 13/10* 13/8
[ 6] 8/3 6/3
[ 3] 13/10* 6/1*


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/3

If we hit 13/10* 13/8, we give up our midpoint and Neil will have no trouble entering from the bar. This seems like giving up an asset for probably no return.

I would rather just improve our board with 8/3 6/3 and wait for a better time to hit.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/3 6/3

There are good reasons to play either 13/10* 13/8 or 13/10* 6/1* pursuing a priming or blitzing plan. The latter play would be best if we would hold the 2 point providing our attacking play with better substance. Hitting may also be best if Neil would have only a two point board instead of a three point board. Now that we have only a one point board against a three point board, our attacking chances are too weak in view of the exchange of hits that we have to expect, so that the merits of the additional 3 point predominate. Given a choice it is mostly correct to establish a first additional homeboard point rather than to hit.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 146

11 point match

pip: 160 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a----E-EBa-d-a---bbbb-AAA:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10

to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 155

11 point match

pip: 153 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-DB--dBa---bbbb-AA-:0:0:-1:00:6:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.28% (G:21.28% B:1.05%)	67.33% (G:23.05% B:1.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.72% (G:9.24% B:0.44%)	32.67% (G:9.76% B:0.61%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.493	+1.090
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.836 (-0.090)	±0.010 (+0.826..+0.847)
Double/Take:	+0.926	±0.015 (+0.912..+0.941)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.074)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] Take
[ 3] Pass


Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

Neil has a better position, threats but no racing advantage. We have counter play and our back are split -– this is really important, at this score I would Pass if they were not split.

I thought that this would be a double for money so therefore Neil should double here. After checking with XG, it is a close No Double for money, but is a double if our back checkers are not split. At this score a Double and Take but if the checkers are not split a Pass.

Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

My four prime from the 4 through 7 points is strong, but I am not threatening much at the moment. However, that will change if I can continue to make even small improvements and I have a few jokers I could roll. As I have a good 3 point board, if I can send back another checker or two soon, I will have decent gammon chances. The fact that the race is close and they have their 9 point is concerning, and their split back checkers are useful. But still they have only a one point board and a cramped forward position if they don’t roll well. All this means that I don’t know whether this is a double for money. I’d probably wait since almost no one is passing.

But at this score, I can double a bit sooner for money, and they need to be a bit more cautious taking since if I win two points I get to the desired 4-away score. Therefore, I believe this is a proper score based double, while, of course it is a take for them.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 155

11 point match

pip: 153 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-DB--dBa---bbbb-AA-:1:1:-1:63:6:5:0:11:10

to play 63

1.	Rollout1	24/15	eq: +0.402
	Player: Opponent: 67.77% (G:20.08% B:0.91%) 32.23% (G:9.22% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.399...+0.405) - [59.2%] Duration: 7 hours 32 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/18 13/10	eq: +0.402 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 67.20% (G:21.47% B:1.15%) 32.80% (G:10.17% B:0.62%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.399...+0.405) - [40.8%] Duration: 7 hours 25 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/15.

When you give a cube like I just did that most players will take, it is a good idea before sending that cube to try to determine how your non-jokers will play. If you really don’t think you’ll have much of an advantage after many of these plays, you will wish to reconsider doubling.

Here I have a decent play with 24/15 stepping behind 11 of their checkers and taking advantage of their stripped midpoint which they have to break to hit me. Of course I’d rather be missed so I can increase my outfield presence or even escape the other back checker or roll a joker to make my 8 point.

Other plays are possible but I don’t see any that does as much as 24/15 with only small risk.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 146

11 point match

pip: 153 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a----E-DBa-dBa---bbbb-AA-:1:1:1:53:6:5:0:11:10

to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 155

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-D-A-dCa---bbbb-AA-:0:0:1:41:6:5:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	13/9 10/9	eq: -0.906
	Player: Opponent: 32.41% (G:9.65% B:0.80%) 67.59% (G:22.25% B:1.06%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.922...-0.891) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 10/6	eq: -1.000 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 29.93% (G:7.49% B:0.37%) 70.07% (G:19.76% B:0.82%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.008...-0.992) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/23 13/9	eq: -1.000 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 30.37% (G:8.26% B:0.70%) 69.63% (G:22.34% B:1.27%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.011...-0.989) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
4.	Rollout1	23/22 10/6	eq: -1.000 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 30.41% (G:8.20% B:0.57%) 69.59% (G:23.91% B:1.02%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-1.010...-0.990) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
5.	Rollout1	24/23 8/4	eq: -1.000 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 29.19% (G:7.41% B:0.66%) 70.81% (G:23.57% B:1.45%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.011...-0.989) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
6.	Rollout1	23/22 13/9	eq: -1.000 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 30.00% (G:8.15% B:0.54%) 70.00% (G:28.20% B:2.38%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-1.010...-0.990) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Rolled for both No double and Double Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/9 10/9
[ 1] 24/23 13/9
[ 1] 23/22 13/9


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/9 10/9

The race is on and we want to run from Neil’s homeboard and at the same time defend our selves against Neil’s priming threats. So my first impression was that the choice is between 23/22 10/6, 24/23 10/6 or even a play with 13/9 leaving two blots in the outfield and 11 shots against Neil’s much stronger board but with best chances to establish a point next if Neil fails to hit.

Looking for alternative plays (never forget!) we immediately find 13/9 10/9. Our first point on our side of the board. In general – and this position it’s no exception – the first point on our side of the board is most important for the own offence. It first brings “structure.” It blocks the opponents checkers already and it serves as landing point for builders for further points. At the same time it works in a defensive way since it protects us from getting hit.

Neil’s attacking and primng threats are still weak due to his lack of builders and so the choice between offence (13/9 10/9) and defence (24/23 …) is as clear as the choice between offence and the pure racing play 23/22.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 155

11 point match

pip: 153 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-DB--dBa---bbbb-AA-:0:0:-1:00:6:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 165 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---abcb---AA:0:0:1:52:6:5:0:11:10

to play 52

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 13/8	eq: -0.562
	Player: Opponent: 39.17% (G:11.20% B:0.87%) 60.83% (G:19.27% B:0.95%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.576...-0.548) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 10/5	eq: -0.604 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 38.27% (G:10.08% B:0.63%) 61.73% (G:20.18% B:0.99%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.616...-0.592) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] b/23 13/8
[ 3] b/23 10/5


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 13/8

10/5 is too big with Neil having a better board, even before considering our lead in the match. So, 13/8 looks fine to me.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/23 13/8

The alternative play bar/23 10/5 is too bold in view of Neil’s stronger board and our split back checkers.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-D-A-eC---abcb--AA-:0:0:-1:00:6:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.91% (G:19.45% B:0.90%)	61.03% (G:20.12% B:0.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.09% (G:10.93% B:0.70%)	38.97% (G:11.21% B:0.80%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.324	+0.721
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.563	±0.013 (+0.551..+0.576)
Double/Take:	+0.516 (-0.047)	±0.015 (+0.501..+0.531)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.437)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

It is helpful to know reference positions for money. For money I have a close decision to cube or not had they danced. At this score, I can cube a bit sooner so had they danced I’d be sending the cube this early. But they didn’t dance so I am sure I need an improvement before doubling.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-D-A-eC---abcb--AA-:0:0:-1:22:6:5:0:11:10

to play 22

1.	Rollout1	13/11 8/4 6/4	eq: +0.754
	Player: Opponent: 64.83% (G:22.70% B:1.07%) 35.17% (G:10.53% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.742...+0.766) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/22 8/4 6/4	eq: +0.714 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 63.97% (G:20.78% B:0.99%) 36.03% (G:10.19% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.703...+0.726) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 8/4 6/4.

Three of these 2’s are forced as I make my 4 point. My final 2 is more interesting. I will follow the guidelines of not splitting in front of big stacks and also unstacking heavy points and play 13/11.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 155

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-D-A-dCa---bbbb-AA-:0:0:1:41:6:5:0:11:10

to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 79

11 point match

pip: 53 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-CDBAABAA---a------edc-b--:1:-1:1:32:4:5:0:11:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	8/6 7/4	eq: +0.821
	Player: Opponent: 91.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 8.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.821...+0.822) - [99.6%] Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/5 7/5	eq: +0.820 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 91.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 8.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.819...+0.821) - [0.4%] Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/5 6/4	eq: +0.817 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 91.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 8.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.816...+0.818) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/5 7/5
[ 7] 8/5 6/4
[ 5] 8/6 7/4


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/5 6/4

Wasting pips by rolling two 4’s is worse than wasting one crossover.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 70

11 point match

pip: 38 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-CDB-CA------------edd-b--:1:-1:-1:41:4:5:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	4/3 4/Off	eq: -0.903
	Player: Opponent: 4.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 95.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.904...-0.903) - [90.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds
2.	Rollout1	4/Off 2/1	eq: -0.904 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 4.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 95.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.904...-0.903) - [10.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/5 4/Off	eq: -0.905 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 4.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 95.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.905...-0.904) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 23 seconds
4.	Rollout2	5/Off	eq: -0.909 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 4.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 95.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.910...-0.908) - [0.0%] Duration: 31.5 seconds
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 4/0 2/1.

4/0 and then as I need to get the most out of big doubles, I slightly prefer 2/1.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 167

11 point match

pip: 158 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---cAe----A-:0:0:-1:11:6:5:0:11:10

to play 11

1.	Rollout1	8/7*(2) 6/5(2)	eq: +0.473
	Player: Opponent: 58.45% (G:18.29% B:0.86%) 41.55% (G:11.07% B:0.73%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.460...+0.485) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 8/7* 6/5(2)	eq: +0.420 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 57.31% (G:18.01% B:0.94%) 42.69% (G:12.06% B:0.76%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.406...+0.433) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 03 minutes
3.	Rollout1	8/7* 7/5 6/5	eq: +0.418 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 57.36% (G:18.18% B:0.90%) 42.64% (G:11.50% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.406...+0.430) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/7*(2) 6/5(2).

A great roll giving me the advantage.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 165 score: 6 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---abcb---AA:0:0:1:52:6:5:0:11:10

to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 86

11 point match

pip: 77 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB-ABBC-A-a--a-a-dcc-b--:1:-1:1:66:4:5:0:11:10

to play 66

1.	Rollout1	10/4 8/2(2) 7/1	eq: +0.820
	Player: Opponent: 91.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 8.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.819...+0.821) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/4 8/2(3)	eq: +0.811 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 91.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 8.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.810...+0.812) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds
3.	Rollout1	10/4 8/2 7/1(2)	eq: +0.808 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 91.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 8.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.807...+0.809) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 10/4 8/2(2) 7/1
[10] 10/4 8/2(3)


Grant Hoffman recommends: 10/4 8/2(2) 7/1

Here we need to play 10/4 8/2(2) then decide on the last 2.

We should play 7/1 so we have a better chance of putting a second checker on the 4 point and to guard against us rolling three 1’s in a row and not being able to take off the last 1.

It will be close between 8/2 and 7/1 for the last 6.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 86

11 point match

pip: 53 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-CDBAABAA---a--a-a-dcc-b--:1:-1:-1:43:4:5:0:11:10

to play 43

1.	Rollout1	13/9 8/5	eq: -0.858
	Player: Opponent: 6.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 93.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.858...-0.857) - [100.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 39 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/6 8/5	eq: -0.859 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 6.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 93.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.859...-0.858) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 55 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/6	eq: -0.860 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 6.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 93.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.860...-0.859) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 37 seconds
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 8/5.

I need big doubles to have any chance.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 79

11 point match

pip: 53 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-CDBAABAA---a------edc-b--:1:-1:1:32:4:5:0:11:10

to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 86

11 point match

pip: 77 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB-ABBC-A-a--a-a-dcc-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	72.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	27.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.446	+0.884
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.699 (-0.015)	±0.003 (+0.697..+0.702)
Double/Take:	+0.714	±0.004 (+0.711..+0.718)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.286)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] Double
[ 6] No Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

Neil’s take point is 22%.

Using the Keith count adjustments, we have 4 pips penalty. That consists of:

• 2 pips for the extra checker on the 1 point,
• 1 pip for the extra checker on the 2 point,
• 1 pip for the gap on our 4 point.

Neil has a 1 pip penalty for the extra checker on his 2 point.

So the adjusted pip counts are 81 for us and 87 for Neil.

Using Ross-Benjamin, that’s 101/143 = 0.7+

0.73 = 72% so we win 72% and that is within 6% of Neil so a small double for us.

Neil Kazaross takes.

I have a close take based on pips alone, but a clear take as they have at least three pips more wastage than I do. I do think they have a double, however.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 86

11 point match

pip: 77 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB-ABBC-A-a--a-a-dcc-b--:1:-1:1:66:4:5:0:11:10

to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 94

11 point match

pip: 86 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB-ABAC---bB-a-a-dbc-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	69.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	30.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.384	+0.755
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.591	±0.007 (+0.584..+0.598)
Double/Take:	+0.559 (-0.032)	±0.008 (+0.550..+0.567)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.409)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] No Double
[16] Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

Here I used the Ross-Benjamin Count and got us winning 70% of the time when it is actually 69%. I remember being told that 13 point vs 13 point contact is worth 1% but I forgot to factor that in.

I have the take point when you are 6 away vs 7 away memorised as 22%. As I thought Neil had 30% but he actually has 31% here, this is not a double. It is close but we are not there yet.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 94

11 point match

pip: 77 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB-ABBC-A-b--a-a-dbc-b--:0:0:-1:53:4:5:0:11:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: -0.716
	Player: Opponent: 27.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 72.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.718...-0.715) - [98.9%] Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.	Rollout1	10/5 8/5	eq: -0.718 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 27.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 72.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.719...-0.717) - [1.1%] Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Rolled for both No double and Double Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/5.

13/5 seems the most diversified although 10/5 8/5 can’t be far wrong.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 86

11 point match

pip: 77 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB-ABBC-A-a--a-a-dcc-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 99

11 point match

pip: 93 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB--CAB---bBAa-bacbb-b--:0:0:1:61:4:5:0:11:10

to play 61

1.	Rollout1	14/8 7/6	eq: +0.381
	Player: Opponent: 62.70% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 37.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.378...+0.384) - [68.1%] Duration: 30 minutes 11 seconds
2.	Rollout1	14/8 6/5	eq: +0.380 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 62.68% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 37.32% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.377...+0.383) - [31.9%] Duration: 32 minutes 08 seconds
3.	Rollout1	14/7	eq: +0.362 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 62.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 37.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.359...+0.365) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 54 seconds
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 14/8 6/5
[12] 14/8 7/6
[ 4] 14/7


Grant Hoffman recommends: 14/8 6/5

We have to play the 6 by moving 14/8.

For the 1 it will be either 7/6 or 6/5. I prefer 6/5 so that we get the checker on the 5 point. Compare the two alternatives if our next roll is 55 or 66. This play should be close.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 99

11 point match

pip: 86 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB-ABAC---bB-a-bacbb-b--:0:0:-1:41:4:5:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	8/4 7/6	eq: -0.593
	Player: Opponent: 30.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.596...-0.590) - [100.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 28 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/6 7/6	eq: -0.600 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 30.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.603...-0.597) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 32 seconds
3.	Rollout1	10/9 8/4	eq: -0.603 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 30.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.606...-0.600) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 33 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/3	eq: -0.604 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 30.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.607...-0.601) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 12 seconds
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 7/6.

8/4 7/6 makes two crossovers and distributes as best as possible.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 94

11 point match

pip: 86 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB-ABAC---bB-a-a-dbc-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 99

11 point match

pip: 93 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB--CAB---bBAa-bacbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.19% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)	65.18% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.81% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)	34.82% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.303	+0.586
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.461	±0.007 (+0.454..+0.468)
Double/Take:	+0.357 (-0.104)	±0.009 (+0.349..+0.366)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.539)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] No Double
[ 3] Double


is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 99

11 point match

pip: 93 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB--CAB---bBAa-bacbb-b--:0:0:1:61:4:5:0:11:10

to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 108

11 point match

pip: 110 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-ABB--CACa--bB---d-bbb-bA-:0:0:1:61:4:5:0:11:10

to play 61

1.	Rollout1	8/1	eq: -0.691
	Player: Opponent: 31.51% (G:2.93% B:0.04%) 68.49% (G:6.72% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.698...-0.684) - [100.0%] Duration: 34 minutes 06 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/1 6/5	eq: -0.725 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 30.98% (G:3.27% B:0.04%) 69.02% (G:8.45% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.733...-0.717) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 16 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 8/1
[10] 7/1 6/5
[ 4] 24/18 8/7


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/1

The problem with 7/1 6/5 is that we do not have that many covers. This leads us to the safe 8/1 – slightly conservative.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/1

We are up in the race. Thus running is an option. We have to balance the risk of getting hit on the 18 point and the merits of winning a race after playing 24/18 with the risk of getting primed or attacked and the merits of hitting a fly shot after staying on the 24 point. Here our we are only little ahead. Attacking threats are almost zero next roll due to Neil’s lack of builders in his homeboard and we can establish an aditional homeboard point what will help a lot if we get lucky and hit a shot: Stay.

Slotting the 5 point will provide Neil with a target when we hit, what might nullify the hit. At the same time it does not add considerable equity when Neil fails to hit back because after we hit, we will be huge favourite anyway due to the big racing lead.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 108

11 point match

pip: 103 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB--CABa--bB---d-bbb-bA-:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68.55% (G:6.80% B:0.13%)	68.76% (G:7.22% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.45% (G:2.94% B:0.04%)	31.24% (G:2.97% B:0.06%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.419	+0.937
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.692	±0.003 (+0.689..+0.695)
Double/Take:	+0.685 (-0.006)	±0.004 (+0.681..+0.689)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.308)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.0%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		99.7%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 45 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I think I am close to a double but not quite there and would like another builder or a lead of a couple more pips.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 108

11 point match

pip: 103 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB--CABa--bB---d-bbb-bA-:0:0:-1:32:4:5:0:11:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	16/13 8/6	eq: +0.620
	Player: Opponent: 66.47% (G:5.13% B:0.10%) 33.53% (G:2.08% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.612...+0.627) - [100.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 40 seconds
2.	Rollout1	16/11	eq: +0.596 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 65.75% (G:6.32% B:0.16%) 34.25% (G:3.47% B:0.05%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.587...+0.604) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 48 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/13 8/6.

16/13 is a must now that their board is good. For the two, 8/6 looks normal and smoothing and safe. 13/11 could be best, but I am usually losing when hit. Since I have a nice positional advantage and will remain close to a cube, I play safe with 8/6 building.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 103

11 point match

pip: 93 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB--CAB---cBA--c-cbb-b--:0:0:-1:31:4:5:0:11:10

to play 31

1.	Rollout1	13/10 8/7	eq: -0.460
	Player: Opponent: 34.80% (G:0.08% B:0.00%) 65.20% (G:0.04% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.463...-0.457) - [51.1%] Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/7 8/5	eq: -0.460 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 34.78% (G:0.10% B:0.00%) 65.22% (G:0.04% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.463...-0.457) - [48.9%] Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 8/7.

My ace should go 8/7, and there can’t be any meaningful difference between 13/10 and 8/5.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 99

11 point match

pip: 93 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBB--CAB---bBAa-bacbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 115

11 point match

pip: 130 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=---A--DCDb--aB---d-cbb-aA-:0:0:1:55:4:5:0:11:10

to play 55

1.	Rollout1	8/3 7/2(2) 6/1	eq: -0.556
	Player: Opponent: 35.66% (G:6.66% B:0.12%) 64.34% (G:12.64% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.559...-0.553) - [89.8%] Duration: 4 hours 29 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/3 7/2 6/1(2)	eq: -0.559 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 35.74% (G:6.98% B:0.13%) 64.26% (G:13.54% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.562...-0.556) - [10.2%] Duration: 4 hours 21 minutes
3.	Rollout1	8/3(2) 7/2(2)	eq: -0.569 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 35.31% (G:6.25% B:0.15%) 64.69% (G:11.96% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.572...-0.566) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 26 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 8/3 7/2(2) 6/1
[ 8] 8/3 7/2 6/1(2)
[ 7] 8/3(2) 7/2(2)


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/3 7/2(2) 6/1

We should keep our midpoint in order to protect our checker on the 24 point and to keep pressure on Neil’s back checkers.

The recommended play is most flexible. It brings four crossovers and keeps the most builders to cover the blot on the ace.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 115

11 point match

pip: 110 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-ABB--CACb--aB---d-cbb-aA-:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.26% (G:12.76% B:0.40%)	64.37% (G:14.28% B:0.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.74% (G:6.62% B:0.14%)	35.63% (G:7.29% B:0.24%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.365	+0.817
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.557	±0.009 (+0.548..+0.565)
Double/Take:	+0.502 (-0.054)	±0.011 (+0.492..+0.513)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.443)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

My race lead is gone and I don’t have my bar point. I also have two blots to clean up. All this means is that I should take a roll here and assess next turn.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 115

11 point match

pip: 110 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-ABB--CACb--aB---d-cbb-aA-:0:0:-1:43:4:5:0:11:10

to play 43

1.	Rollout1	16/13 6/2	eq: +0.500
	Player: Opponent: 63.16% (G:10.08% B:0.44%) 36.84% (G:5.71% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.492...+0.507) - [100.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 10 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10 6/2	eq: +0.453 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 61.77% (G:8.55% B:0.33%) 38.23% (G:4.12% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.445...+0.460) - [0.0%] Duration: 59 minutes 15 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/5 6/2	eq: +0.441 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 61.56% (G:9.54% B:0.34%) 38.44% (G:5.46% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.432...+0.449) - [0.0%] Duration: 53 minutes 19 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/13 6/2.

My 4 is automatic: 6/2. However, my 3 is far from automatic. 13/10 may look to be automatic but I don’t think it is once I look at the blots on their side of the board. 13/10 doesn’t do as much to contain their back checker as I’d like.

So let’s look at 8/5. This looks better but still suffers to their 66. The only 1’s I am worried about are 11, 15, 16. But lets look at 16/13 with the idea of blocking 66 for while and simply playing around my checker on the 16 point as a builder.

But is 16/13 too loose? I don’t think so since while they have 14 shots I don’t think they are supposed to hit with all those rolls. If I hit back, I usually win and now I don’t usually lose to their 66. I cannot stress enough the importance of considering all 30 pieces on the board. I’ll try 16/13 6/2.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 108

11 point match

pip: 110 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-ABB--CACa--bB---d-bbb-bA-:0:0:1:61:4:5:0:11:10

to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 131

11 point match

pip: 134 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=-----bECD---bB---d-cab-a-A:0:0:1:31:4:5:0:11:10

to play 31

1.	Rollout1	Bar/24 6/3	eq: -0.379
	Player: Opponent: 42.86% (G:6.63% B:0.24%) 57.14% (G:16.75% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.388...-0.370) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/24 7/4	eq: -0.409 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 41.96% (G:6.61% B:0.26%) 58.04% (G:17.33% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.419...-0.399) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
3.	Rollout1	Bar/22 8/7	eq: -0.437 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 41.38% (G:5.48% B:0.20%) 58.62% (G:18.13% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.445...-0.428) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/24 6/3
[18] b/22 8/7
[ 4] b/24 7/4


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 6/3

Bar/22 8/7 leaves the fewest shots but takes all pressure off Neil.

Bar/24 6/3 keeps the pressure on both Neil’s blots, duplicates his 1’s to hit and cover the 5 point and playing 6/3 maximises our covering rolls.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/24 6/3

We are down in the race, so escaping does not necessarily lead to winning. Entering on the 24 point will make it difficult for Neil to safe both blots unless he rolls a 3. Of course this involves the risk of being primed or attacked later but this can happen after we enter on the 22 point too. But entering on the 22 point will most probably miss out an opportunity to hit a shot and gain an considerable racing advantage.

Let us look out for the 3. 7/4 would be more beautiful but it strips the midpoint, so we “break the mountain” (Michihito Kageyama) and unstack the 6 point.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 131

11 point match

pip: 130 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=---A-bDCD---bB---d-cab-aA-:0:0:-1:44:4:5:0:11:10

to play 44

1.	Rollout1	13/5 8/4 6/2	eq: +0.525
	Player: Opponent: 60.98% (G:18.98% B:0.39%) 39.02% (G:5.32% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.520...+0.529) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 hours 46 minutes
2.	Rollout1	20/16(2) 13/5	eq: +0.504 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 62.30% (G:13.97% B:0.43%) 37.70% (G:7.60% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.500...+0.508) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 hours 16 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/9 13/5 6/2	eq: +0.464 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 60.33% (G:15.66% B:0.28%) 39.67% (G:4.61% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.455...+0.472) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52226481 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/16(2) 13/5.

A nice roll for me. After a good look I think I need to try hard to do better than 13/5 13/9 6/2 which leaves my back checkers disconnected and gives them several nice rolls to escape into the outfield. However, it could be an error to not make a 4 pt board.

I can play 8/4 instead of 13/9 for better outfield coverage. If they roll 66 and hit me I get a direct shot so I am no worse than if I play 13/9. But they hit and cover with some aces. This position also looks a bit “funny”.

If I am going to leave an ace shot, 20/16(2) 13/5 looks best to me. This play gives better outfield control and heads for home, noting that I have the racing lead now. I think it is worth some risk from their aces.

is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 115

11 point match

pip: 130 score: 4 is USBGF Members

XGID=---A--DCDb--aB---d-cbb-aA-:0:0:1:55:4:5:0:11:10

to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10