USBGF OLM 2019-11-23

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BACCB-A-----bb--cccbB-A-:1:1:1:41:6:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.Rollout124/23 5/1eq: -0.727
Player:
Opponent:
16.32% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)
83.68% (G:9.59% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.729...-0.725) - [95.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
2.xgRollout18/3eq: -0.729 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
16.57% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
83.43% (G:10.57% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.730...-0.727) - [5.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
3.playedRollout25/1 4/3eq: -0.737 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
16.55% (G:1.09% B:0.03%)
83.45% (G:11.17% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.741...-0.734) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 55 seconds
4.Rollout224/23 8/4eq: -0.742 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
16.32% (G:0.80% B:0.02%)
83.68% (G:10.81% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.746...-0.738) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 5/1 4/3
[ 6] 8/3
[ 4] 24/23 5/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3

First let’s play 4/3 with the 1 then think about the 4.

5/1 saves a 6 but at the cost of leaving a blot on the 1 point with only 6 covers. Also, after that move we have a lot of rolls which crash our board.

8/4 on the other hand, gives us a 5 point board with no blots. When we leave our anchor, Neil could point on us or hit loose. If he hits loose, he will have to be mindful of the fact that a return hit from us with such a good board will probably be fatal.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/23 5/1

The strongest contender should be 8/3 forming a strong 5 point board. It might even be the best play. After this play any shot we get will be almost a winning shot.

Since we will get only few indirect shots next roll, if any the drawbacks of making the 5 point are to be considered carefully: We will be in considerable danger of being forced to leave from our 22 point anchor with a 6, what would expose our remaining checkers to an attack of high gammon potential. Generally speaking we need the timing that we gain by freeing our checker from the 24 point. Since we will have in most cases time to build our board before we hit a shot and 24/23 8/4 is inflexible, 24/23 5/1 would be my play.

5/1 4/3 saves a 6 but leaves a blot on the ace what reduces the advantage of the 5 point prime in case we hit a shot next roll. Anyway we probably rather should run with a 6 next roll than crunch our board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 117
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABBBBB-A-----bb--cccbB-A-:1:1:-1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout17/2 5/2eq: +0.784
Player:
Opponent:
84.35% (G:13.26% B:0.43%)
15.65% (G:1.19% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.780...+0.788) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout110/7 10/5eq: +0.702 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
82.44% (G:9.85% B:0.30%)
17.56% (G:0.99% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.698...+0.705) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/2 5/2.

Their blot on my ace point is a liability now. I think I should play to increase the pressure on it. This means that I make the 2 point. I can clear my outfield points later by landing on my 4 prime. Their board can also crack. I think I am winning more gammons by making the 2 point and not sacrificing any game wins to get them.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 96
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 117
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABBBBB-A-----bb--bcbbBbA-:1:1:1:41:6:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 12/6 630a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-11-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 114
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABBD-BA----cc--cbbbB-A-:1:1:1:44:6:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout19/5 8/4 6/2(2)eq: -0.681
Player:
Opponent:
18.36% (G:1.26% B:0.04%)
81.64% (G:9.91% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.683...-0.680) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
2.Rollout19/1 8/4 6/2eq: -0.690 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
17.76% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
82.24% (G:9.31% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.692...-0.689) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout29/1 6/2(2)eq: -0.693 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
18.06% (G:1.13% B:0.02%)
81.94% (G:10.06% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.697...-0.689) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout28/4(2) 6/2(2)eq: -0.695 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
17.92% (G:1.22% B:0.03%)
82.08% (G:10.22% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.699...-0.691) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 9/5 8/4 6/2(2)
[ 4] 9/1 8/4 6/2
[ 3] 9/1 6/2(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/5 8/4 6/2(2)

We just rolled a lot of pips, so we need to improve our board with 6/2(2), then maximise our covers for the 4 and 1 points with 9/5 8/4.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 9/5 8/4 6/2(2)

Building our board.



Neil Kazaross: 64 11/5 10/6


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BACCB-A-----bb--cccbB-A-:1:1:1:41:6:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 12/5 830a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-11-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=----A-E-DBb-b-ba--bbbbB-A-:1:1:1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout19/4 8/5eq: -0.671
Player:
Opponent:
17.99% (G:1.85% B:0.07%)
82.01% (G:8.89% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.675...-0.666) - [99.3%]
Duration: 44 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.679 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
18.12% (G:2.11% B:0.07%)
81.88% (G:9.97% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.683...-0.674) - [0.7%]
Duration: 40 minutes 38 seconds
3.Rollout19/4 6/3eq: -0.682 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
17.62% (G:1.77% B:0.08%)
82.38% (G:9.06% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.686...-0.678) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 52 seconds
4.Rollout18/5 8/3eq: -0.698 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
17.39% (G:2.17% B:0.17%)
82.61% (G:10.27% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.702...-0.693) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 9/4 8/5
[15] 8/3 6/3
[ 1] 8/5 8/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/4 8/5

We need to build our board, so that when we hit one of Neil’s checkers we have the best chance of containing it.

We want our 5 point. As we cannot make it here, let’s make the 4 point and slot the 5 point with 9/4 8/5.

8/3 6/3 is also great but the 5 point is the 5 point. In a chouette, I would not argue with 8/3 6/3.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 9/4 8/5

First make the highest homeboard points.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BAE-CAb-b-ba--bbbbB-A-:1:1:-1:65:6:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout115/10 13/7eq: +0.638
Player:
Opponent:
81.36% (G:7.44% B:0.23%)
18.64% (G:1.47% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.633...+0.642) - [100.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout115/10 11/5eq: +0.623 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
80.44% (G:8.20% B:0.30%)
19.56% (G:1.99% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.618...+0.628) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/10 13/7.

I am now 23 pips up. I’d love to make my 8 point, but if I just come home to my 4 prime I am happy. My natural play is 15/10 13/7. So let’s looks at the shots. Do they hit with 64? I don’t care. But do they hit with 66 or 55… I hate that, but I get returns and I can lose to those rolls anyhow and now or later. I’ll play 15/10 13/7 and if I cannot make my 8 point next turn, I hope to find a safe play as their board will be better.



USBGF Members: 51 8/3 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABBD-BAa-a-bb--cbbbB-A-:1:1:-1:43:6:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout115/11 13/10eq: +0.654
Player:
Opponent:
82.21% (G:6.29% B:0.20%)
17.79% (G:0.75% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.650...+0.658) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout113/6eq: +0.620 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
80.85% (G:6.76% B:0.23%)
19.15% (G:1.54% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.616...+0.624) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/11 13/10.

My 10 and 11 points are ideally situated as stepping stones since they are 7 and 8 points in front of their forward anchor. I’ll use these stepping stones, since I am afraid to leave a shot now that their board is shaping up nicely.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 114
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABBD-BA----cc--cbbbB-A-:1:1:1:44:6:5:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 12/4 730p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-11-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=------E-EBb-d-a---bbbbAAA-:1:1:1:41:6:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout123/22 8/4eq: -0.663
Player:
Opponent:
18.70% (G:2.51% B:0.14%)
81.30% (G:10.07% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.668...-0.658) - [99.2%]
Duration: 59 minutes 24 seconds
2.xgRollout123/22 9/5eq: -0.671 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
18.68% (G:2.43% B:0.11%)
81.32% (G:10.70% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.676...-0.666) - [0.8%]
Duration: 54 minutes 48 seconds
3.Rollout123/22 6/2eq: -0.677 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
18.40% (G:2.18% B:0.11%)
81.60% (G:10.57% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.683...-0.672) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout124/23 8/4eq: -0.700 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
19.28% (G:2.89% B:0.18%)
80.72% (G:14.67% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.705...-0.695) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 53 seconds
5.Rollout124/23 9/5eq: -0.713 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
18.96% (G:2.70% B:0.15%)
81.04% (G:14.99% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.719...-0.707) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 33 seconds
6.Rollout19/5 6/5eq: -0.719 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
20.05% (G:3.17% B:0.13%)
79.95% (G:17.29% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.724...-0.713) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 23/22 8/4
[ 9] 23/22 9/5
[ 7] 9/5 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/22 9/5

It’s always good to grab the anchor if we get the chance – it is a good insurance policy.

Then we have to decide on 9/5 slotting the best point or 8/4 unstacking. Over the board I would play 9/5.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 23/22 8/4

The first choice is between 9/5 6/5 and 23/22 x/x. Since Neil has neither checkers in our homeboard nor on the bar holding the 5 point at this moment appears less important than holding an anchor. 23/22 is the choice. Two reasonable plays for the 4 remain. 9/5 slots the better point whereas 8/4 keeps the 9 point and brings a more flexible distribution which overall will make it easier for us to build our board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=----A-E-DBb-d-a---bbbbB-A-:1:1:-1:32:6:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/11 13/10eq: +0.648
Player:
Opponent:
80.92% (G:9.40% B:0.36%)
19.08% (G:2.26% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.643...+0.653) - [100.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout115/12 13/11eq: +0.634 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
80.29% (G:9.52% B:0.39%)
19.71% (G:2.30% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.629...+0.639) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout115/10eq: +0.618 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
79.80% (G:9.08% B:0.32%)
20.20% (G:2.24% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.614...+0.623) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 39 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 11/9eq: +0.617 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
78.53% (G:12.68% B:0.63%)
21.47% (G:3.89% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.611...+0.622) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 07 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 13/10.

There are a couple of plays to continue with my plan to safely dominate the outfield for now. 13/11 looks good and then I find a 3. 15/12 is diversified, but I don’t want to release control over their 66 joker. So I slightly prefer 13/10. This leaves only four shots which come at a great cost if they hit. Since I don’t care if they hit the 7 shot after 13/10, I am basically leaving zero shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=----A-E-DBb-b-ba--bbbbB-A-:1:1:1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-EBa-d-a---bbbb-AAA:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/22eq: -0.701
Player:
Opponent:
23.51% (G:5.07% B:0.30%)
76.49% (G:24.38% B:1.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.708...-0.695) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 24/23eq: -0.747 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
19.90% (G:3.82% B:0.22%)
80.10% (G:20.70% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.753...-0.740) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.788 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
21.58% (G:3.97% B:0.25%)
78.42% (G:27.06% B:1.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.795...-0.781) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 8/7eq: -0.835 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:
20.71% (G:3.95% B:0.22%)
79.29% (G:29.05% B:1.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.842...-0.828) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/23 9/8eq: -0.851 (-0.150)
Player:
Opponent:
18.63% (G:3.49% B:0.19%)
81.37% (G:26.03% B:1.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.857...-0.845) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
6.Rollout1Bar/24 8/6eq: -0.857 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
18.42% (G:3.78% B:0.24%)
81.58% (G:25.88% B:1.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.863...-0.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
7.Rollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.857 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:
20.30% (G:3.86% B:0.19%)
79.70% (G:29.29% B:2.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.864...-0.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] b/22
[ 9] b/23 6/5
[ 2] b/23 24/23
[ 1] b/24 6/4


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/22

Bar/23 6/5 is what I first thought is best and I originally wrote the following: “Having established the 23 point, we should not worry too much about gammons. Yet we are still in a bad position. So we look out for a play with best turnaround potential. Having not much to lose by getting hit slotting the 5 point appears to be the strongest play.”

Finding a good play and not looking out for a better play is a main source for blunders.

Having thought twice and after consultation of XG, bar/22 is the only play: The threat of being primed is huge and the risk of splitting our back checkers by playing bar/22 is small because Neil has no builders yet. At the same time our offence and timing is weak no matter how we play. This is why the gain of the defensive play bar/22 is higher than the gain of the offensive slotting of the 5 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-EBa-d-a---bbbbAAA-:1:1:-1:63:6:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/15eq: +0.637
Player:
Opponent:
78.71% (G:13.36% B:0.63%)
21.29% (G:3.15% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.634...+0.639) - [98.7%]
Duration: 6 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 13/10eq: +0.633 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
76.97% (G:17.66% B:0.98%)
23.03% (G:4.90% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.630...+0.635) - [1.3%]
Duration: 6 hours 26 minutes
3.Rollout213/10 11/5eq: +0.619 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
74.04% (G:23.18% B:1.36%)
25.96% (G:6.05% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.612...+0.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/15.

I could make some more aggressive complicating plays taking some risks for some more gains, but it seems natural to take the simple path and hop out 24/15. This leave only six shots, and if I am hit I have return shots. My plan is to play what I call 15 vs. 3. My 15 checkers are all in the outfield and can play with little interference vs. their three checkers back in my board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=------E-EBb-d-a---bbbbAAA-:1:1:1:41:6:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-DBa-dBa---bbbb-AA-:1:1:1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.463
Player:
Opponent:
29.81% (G:8.58% B:0.41%)
70.19% (G:19.24% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.470...-0.457) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.playedRollout113/8 13/10* eq: -0.497 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
29.24% (G:8.99% B:0.55%)
70.76% (G:21.35% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.503...-0.490) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.Rollout113/10* 6/1* eq: -0.530 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
29.83% (G:10.04% B:0.48%)
70.17% (G:25.52% B:1.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.538...-0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61996098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 13/10* 13/8
[ 6] 8/3 6/3
[ 3] 13/10* 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/3

If we hit 13/10* 13/8, we give up our midpoint and Neil will have no trouble entering from the bar. This seems like giving up an asset for probably no return.

I would rather just improve our board with 8/3 6/3 and wait for a better time to hit.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/3 6/3

There are good reasons to play either 13/10* 13/8 or 13/10* 6/1* pursuing a priming or blitzing plan. The latter play would be best if we would hold the 2 point providing our attacking play with better substance. Hitting may also be best if Neil would have only a two point board instead of a three point board. Now that we have only a one point board against a three point board, our attacking chances are too weak in view of the exchange of hits that we have to expect, so that the merits of the additional 3 point predominate. Given a choice it is mostly correct to establish a first additional homeboard point rather than to hit.



Neil Kazaross: 64 b/15*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-EBa-d-a---bbbb-AAA:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-DB--dBa---bbbb-AA-:0:0:-1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.28% (G:21.28% B:1.05%) 67.33% (G:23.05% B:1.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.72% (G:9.24% B:0.44%) 32.67% (G:9.76% B:0.61%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.493 +1.090
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.836 (-0.090)±0.010 (+0.826..+0.847)
played Double/Take:+0.926±0.015 (+0.912..+0.941)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.074)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] Take
[ 3] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

Neil has a better position, threats but no racing advantage. We have counter play and our back are split -– this is really important, at this score I would Pass if they were not split.

I thought that this would be a double for money so therefore Neil should double here. After checking with XG, it is a close No Double for money, but is a double if our back checkers are not split. At this score a Double and Take but if the checkers are not split a Pass.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

My four prime from the 4 through 7 points is strong, but I am not threatening much at the moment. However, that will change if I can continue to make even small improvements and I have a few jokers I could roll. As I have a good 3 point board, if I can send back another checker or two soon, I will have decent gammon chances. The fact that the race is close and they have their 9 point is concerning, and their split back checkers are useful. But still they have only a one point board and a cramped forward position if they don’t roll well. All this means that I don’t know whether this is a double for money. I’d probably wait since almost no one is passing.

But at this score, I can double a bit sooner for money, and they need to be a bit more cautious taking since if I win two points I get to the desired 4-away score. Therefore, I believe this is a proper score based double, while, of course it is a take for them.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-DB--dBa---bbbb-AA-:1:1:-1:63:6:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/15eq: +0.402
Player:
Opponent:
67.77% (G:20.08% B:0.91%)
32.23% (G:9.22% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.399...+0.405) - [59.2%]
Duration: 7 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 13/10eq: +0.402 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
67.20% (G:21.47% B:1.15%)
32.80% (G:10.17% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.399...+0.405) - [40.8%]
Duration: 7 hours 25 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/15.

When you give a cube like I just did that most players will take, it is a good idea before sending that cube to try to determine how your non-jokers will play. If you really don’t think you’ll have much of an advantage after many of these plays, you will wish to reconsider doubling.

Here I have a decent play with 24/15 stepping behind 11 of their checkers and taking advantage of their stripped midpoint which they have to break to hit me. Of course I’d rather be missed so I can increase my outfield presence or even escape the other back checker or roll a joker to make my 8 point.

Other plays are possible but I don’t see any that does as much as 24/15 with only small risk.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-DBa-dBa---bbbb-AA-:1:1:1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D-A-dCa---bbbb-AA-:0:0:1:41:6:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout113/9 10/9eq: -0.906
Player:
Opponent:
32.41% (G:9.65% B:0.80%)
67.59% (G:22.25% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.922...-0.891) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 10/6eq: -1.000 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
29.93% (G:7.49% B:0.37%)
70.07% (G:19.76% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.008...-0.992) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 13/9eq: -1.000 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
30.37% (G:8.26% B:0.70%)
69.63% (G:22.34% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.011...-0.989) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
4.Rollout123/22 10/6eq: -1.000 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
30.41% (G:8.20% B:0.57%)
69.59% (G:23.91% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-1.010...-0.990) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
5.Rollout124/23 8/4eq: -1.000 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
29.19% (G:7.41% B:0.66%)
70.81% (G:23.57% B:1.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.011...-0.989) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
6.Rollout123/22 13/9eq: -1.000 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
30.00% (G:8.15% B:0.54%)
70.00% (G:28.20% B:2.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-1.010...-0.990) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/9 10/9
[ 1] 24/23 13/9
[ 1] 23/22 13/9


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/9 10/9

The race is on and we want to run from Neil’s homeboard and at the same time defend our selves against Neil’s priming threats. So my first impression was that the choice is between 23/22 10/6, 24/23 10/6 or even a play with 13/9 leaving two blots in the outfield and 11 shots against Neil’s much stronger board but with best chances to establish a point next if Neil fails to hit.

Looking for alternative plays (never forget!) we immediately find 13/9 10/9. Our first point on our side of the board. In general – and this position it’s no exception – the first point on our side of the board is most important for the own offence. It first brings “structure.” It blocks the opponents checkers already and it serves as landing point for builders for further points. At the same time it works in a defensive way since it protects us from getting hit.

Neil’s attacking and primng threats are still weak due to his lack of builders and so the choice between offence (13/9 10/9) and defence (24/23 …) is as clear as the choice between offence and the pure racing play 23/22.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-DB--dBa---bbbb-AA-:0:0:-1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-11-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---abcb---AA:0:0:1:52:6:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.562
Player:
Opponent:
39.17% (G:11.20% B:0.87%)
60.83% (G:19.27% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.576...-0.548) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 10/5eq: -0.604 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
38.27% (G:10.08% B:0.63%)
61.73% (G:20.18% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.616...-0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] b/23 13/8
[ 3] b/23 10/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 13/8

10/5 is too big with Neil having a better board, even before considering our lead in the match. So, 13/8 looks fine to me.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/23 13/8

The alternative play bar/23 10/5 is too bold in view of Neil’s stronger board and our split back checkers.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D-A-eC---abcb--AA-:0:0:-1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60.91% (G:19.45% B:0.90%) 61.03% (G:20.12% B:0.93%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.09% (G:10.93% B:0.70%) 38.97% (G:11.21% B:0.80%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.324 +0.721
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.563±0.013 (+0.551..+0.576)
     Double/Take:+0.516 (-0.047)±0.015 (+0.501..+0.531)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.437)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

It is helpful to know reference positions for money. For money I have a close decision to cube or not had they danced. At this score, I can cube a bit sooner so had they danced I’d be sending the cube this early. But they didn’t dance so I am sure I need an improvement before doubling.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D-A-eC---abcb--AA-:0:0:-1:22:6:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/11 8/4 6/4eq: +0.754
Player:
Opponent:
64.83% (G:22.70% B:1.07%)
35.17% (G:10.53% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.742...+0.766) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 8/4 6/4eq: +0.714 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
63.97% (G:20.78% B:0.99%)
36.03% (G:10.19% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.703...+0.726) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 8/4 6/4.

Three of these 2’s are forced as I make my 4 point. My final 2 is more interesting. I will follow the guidelines of not splitting in front of big stacks and also unstacking heavy points and play 13/11.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D-A-dCa---bbbb-AA-:0:0:1:41:6:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 79
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 53
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CDBAABAA---a------edc-b--:1:-1:1:32:4:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout18/6 7/4eq: +0.821
Player:
Opponent:
91.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.821...+0.822) - [99.6%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
2.playedRollout18/5 7/5eq: +0.820 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
91.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.819...+0.821) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 6/4eq: +0.817 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
91.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.816...+0.818) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/5 7/5
[ 7] 8/5 6/4
[ 5] 8/6 7/4


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/5 6/4

Wasting pips by rolling two 4’s is worse than wasting one crossover.



Neil Kazaross: 63 13/4
USBGF Members: 64 6/0 4/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 38
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CDB-CA------------edd-b--:1:-1:-1:41:4:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout14/3 4/Offeq: -0.903
Player:
Opponent:
4.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.904...-0.903) - [90.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds
2.playedRollout14/Off 2/1eq: -0.904 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
4.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.904...-0.903) - [10.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout16/5 4/Offeq: -0.905 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
4.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.905...-0.904) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 23 seconds
4.Rollout25/Offeq: -0.909 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
4.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.910...-0.908) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.5 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 4/0 2/1.

4/0 and then as I need to get the most out of big doubles, I slightly prefer 2/1.



USBGF Members: 65 6/0 5/0
Neil Kazaross: 32 6/3 2/0
USBGF Members: 11 2/0 1/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 64 6/0 4/0
USBGF Members: 63 5/0 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 42 5/1 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 11 6/5 6/4 1/0
USBGF Members: 65 3/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 52


USBGF Members win two points, and now lead 5-away/6-away.



USBGF Members: 63 24/18 13/10


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---cAe----A-:0:0:-1:11:6:5:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout18/7*(2) 6/5(2)eq: +0.473
Player:
Opponent:
58.45% (G:18.29% B:0.86%)
41.55% (G:11.07% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.460...+0.485) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 8/7* 6/5(2)eq: +0.420 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
57.31% (G:18.01% B:0.94%)
42.69% (G:12.06% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.406...+0.433) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 03 minutes
3.Rollout18/7* 7/5 6/5eq: +0.418 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
57.36% (G:18.18% B:0.90%)
42.64% (G:11.50% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.406...+0.430) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/7*(2) 6/5(2).

A great roll giving me the advantage.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---abcb---AA:0:0:1:52:6:5:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 77
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB-ABBC-A-a--a-a-dcc-b--:1:-1:1:66:4:5:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout110/4 8/2(2) 7/1eq: +0.820
Player:
Opponent:
91.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.819...+0.821) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout110/4 8/2(3)eq: +0.811 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
91.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.810...+0.812) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds
3.Rollout110/4 8/2 7/1(2)eq: +0.808 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
91.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.807...+0.809) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 10/4 8/2(2) 7/1
[10] 10/4 8/2(3)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 10/4 8/2(2) 7/1

Here we need to play 10/4 8/2(2) then decide on the last 2.

We should play 7/1 so we have a better chance of putting a second checker on the 4 point and to guard against us rolling three 1’s in a row and not being able to take off the last 1.

It will be close between 8/2 and 7/1 for the last 6.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 53
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CDBAABAA---a--a-a-dcc-b--:1:-1:-1:43:4:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout113/9 8/5eq: -0.858
Player:
Opponent:
6.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.858...-0.857) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 39 seconds
2.playedRollout110/6 8/5eq: -0.859 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
6.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.859...-0.858) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 55 seconds
3.Rollout113/6eq: -0.860 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
6.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.860...-0.859) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 8/5.

I need big doubles to have any chance.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 79
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 53
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CDBAABAA---a------edc-b--:1:-1:1:32:4:5:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 77
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB-ABBC-A-a--a-a-dcc-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 72.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 72.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 27.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.446 +0.884
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.699 (-0.015)±0.003 (+0.697..+0.702)
xg Double/Take:+0.714±0.004 (+0.711..+0.718)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.286)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] Double
[ 6] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

Neil’s take point is 22%.

Using the Keith count adjustments, we have 4 pips penalty. That consists of:

  • 2 pips for the extra checker on the 1 point,
  • 1 pip for the extra checker on the 2 point,
  • 1 pip for the gap on our 4 point.

Neil has a 1 pip penalty for the extra checker on his 2 point.

So the adjusted pip counts are 81 for us and 87 for Neil.

Using Ross-Benjamin, that’s 101/143 = 0.7+

0.73 = 72% so we win 72% and that is within 6% of Neil so a small double for us.


Here is a video made by Grant Hoffman talking about the Ross-Benjamin Count.


Neil Kazaross takes.

I have a close take based on pips alone, but a clear take as they have at least three pips more wastage than I do. I do think they have a double, however.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 77
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB-ABBC-A-a--a-a-dcc-b--:1:-1:1:66:4:5:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB-ABAC---bB-a-a-dbc-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 30.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.384 +0.755
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.591±0.007 (+0.584..+0.598)
     Double/Take:+0.559 (-0.032)±0.008 (+0.550..+0.567)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.409)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] No Double
[16] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

Here I used the Ross-Benjamin Count and got us winning 70% of the time when it is actually 69%. I remember being told that 13 point vs 13 point contact is worth 1% but I forgot to factor that in.

I have the take point when you are 6 away vs 7 away memorised as 22%. As I thought Neil had 30% but he actually has 31% here, this is not a double. It is close but we are not there yet.



USBGF Members: 13/10 13/7


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 77
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB-ABBC-A-b--a-a-dbc-b--:0:0:-1:53:4:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout113/5eq: -0.716
Player:
Opponent:
27.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
72.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.718...-0.715) - [98.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.Rollout110/5 8/5eq: -0.718 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
27.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
72.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.719...-0.717) - [1.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/5.

13/5 seems the most diversified although 10/5 8/5 can’t be far wrong.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 77
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB-ABBC-A-a--a-a-dcc-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB--CAB---bBAa-bacbb-b--:0:0:1:61:4:5:0:11:10
to play 61

1.Rollout114/8 7/6eq: +0.381
Player:
Opponent:
62.70% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
37.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.378...+0.384) - [68.1%]
Duration: 30 minutes 11 seconds
2.playedRollout114/8 6/5eq: +0.380 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
62.68% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
37.32% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.377...+0.383) - [31.9%]
Duration: 32 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout114/7eq: +0.362 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
62.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.359...+0.365) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 14/8 6/5
[12] 14/8 7/6
[ 4] 14/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 14/8 6/5

We have to play the 6 by moving 14/8.

For the 1 it will be either 7/6 or 6/5. I prefer 6/5 so that we get the checker on the 5 point. Compare the two alternatives if our next roll is 55 or 66. This play should be close.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB-ABAC---bB-a-bacbb-b--:0:0:-1:41:4:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/4 7/6eq: -0.593
Player:
Opponent:
30.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.596...-0.590) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout110/6 7/6eq: -0.600 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
30.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.603...-0.597) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 32 seconds
3.Rollout110/9 8/4eq: -0.603 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
30.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.606...-0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 33 seconds
4.Rollout18/3eq: -0.604 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
30.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.607...-0.601) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 7/6.

8/4 7/6 makes two crossovers and distributes as best as possible.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB-ABAC---bB-a-a-dbc-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB--CAB---bBAa-bacbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.19% (G:0.04% B:0.00%) 65.18% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.81% (G:0.08% B:0.00%) 34.82% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.303 +0.586
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.461±0.007 (+0.454..+0.468)
     Double/Take:+0.357 (-0.104)±0.009 (+0.349..+0.366)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.539)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] No Double
[ 3] Double


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB--CAB---bBAa-bacbb-b--:0:0:1:61:4:5:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABB--CACa--bB---d-bbb-bA-:0:0:1:61:4:5:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/1eq: -0.691
Player:
Opponent:
31.51% (G:2.93% B:0.04%)
68.49% (G:6.72% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.698...-0.684) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout17/1 6/5eq: -0.725 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
30.98% (G:3.27% B:0.04%)
69.02% (G:8.45% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.733...-0.717) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 8/1
[10] 7/1 6/5
[ 4] 24/18 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/1

The problem with 7/1 6/5 is that we do not have that many covers. This leads us to the safe 8/1 – slightly conservative.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/1

We are up in the race. Thus running is an option. We have to balance the risk of getting hit on the 18 point and the merits of winning a race after playing 24/18 with the risk of getting primed or attacked and the merits of hitting a fly shot after staying on the 24 point. Here our we are only little ahead. Attacking threats are almost zero next roll due to Neil’s lack of builders in his homeboard and we can establish an aditional homeboard point what will help a lot if we get lucky and hit a shot: Stay.

Slotting the 5 point will provide Neil with a target when we hit, what might nullify the hit. At the same time it does not add considerable equity when Neil fails to hit back because after we hit, we will be huge favourite anyway due to the big racing lead.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB--CABa--bB---d-bbb-bA-:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.55% (G:6.80% B:0.13%) 68.76% (G:7.22% B:0.15%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.45% (G:2.94% B:0.04%) 31.24% (G:2.97% B:0.06%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.419 +0.937
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.692±0.003 (+0.689..+0.695)
     Double/Take:+0.685 (-0.006)±0.004 (+0.681..+0.689)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.308)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.0%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:99.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 45 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I think I am close to a double but not quite there and would like another builder or a lead of a couple more pips.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB--CABa--bB---d-bbb-bA-:0:0:-1:32:4:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout116/13 8/6eq: +0.620
Player:
Opponent:
66.47% (G:5.13% B:0.10%)
33.53% (G:2.08% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.612...+0.627) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout116/11eq: +0.596 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
65.75% (G:6.32% B:0.16%)
34.25% (G:3.47% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.587...+0.604) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/13 8/6.

16/13 is a must now that their board is good. For the two, 8/6 looks normal and smoothing and safe. 13/11 could be best, but I am usually losing when hit. Since I have a nice positional advantage and will remain close to a cube, I play safe with 8/6 building.



USBGF Members: 64 24/14


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB--CAB---cBA--c-cbb-b--:0:0:-1:31:4:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout113/10 8/7eq: -0.460
Player:
Opponent:
34.80% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
65.20% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.463...-0.457) - [51.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.Rollout18/7 8/5eq: -0.460 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
34.78% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
65.22% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.463...-0.457) - [48.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 8/7.

My ace should go 8/7, and there can’t be any meaningful difference between 13/10 and 8/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBB--CAB---bBAa-bacbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 115
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A--DCDb--aB---d-cbb-aA-:0:0:1:55:4:5:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout18/3 7/2(2) 6/1eq: -0.556
Player:
Opponent:
35.66% (G:6.66% B:0.12%)
64.34% (G:12.64% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.559...-0.553) - [89.8%]
Duration: 4 hours 29 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 7/2 6/1(2)eq: -0.559 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
35.74% (G:6.98% B:0.13%)
64.26% (G:13.54% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.562...-0.556) - [10.2%]
Duration: 4 hours 21 minutes
3.Rollout18/3(2) 7/2(2)eq: -0.569 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
35.31% (G:6.25% B:0.15%)
64.69% (G:11.96% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.572...-0.566) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 26 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 8/3 7/2(2) 6/1
[ 8] 8/3 7/2 6/1(2)
[ 7] 8/3(2) 7/2(2)


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/3 7/2(2) 6/1

We should keep our midpoint in order to protect our checker on the 24 point and to keep pressure on Neil’s back checkers.

The recommended play is most flexible. It brings four crossovers and keeps the most builders to cover the blot on the ace.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 115
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABB--CACb--aB---d-cbb-aA-:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.26% (G:12.76% B:0.40%) 64.37% (G:14.28% B:0.48%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.74% (G:6.62% B:0.14%) 35.63% (G:7.29% B:0.24%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.365 +0.817
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.557±0.009 (+0.548..+0.565)
     Double/Take:+0.502 (-0.054)±0.011 (+0.492..+0.513)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.443)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

My race lead is gone and I don’t have my bar point. I also have two blots to clean up. All this means is that I should take a roll here and assess next turn.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 115
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABB--CACb--aB---d-cbb-aA-:0:0:-1:43:4:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout116/13 6/2eq: +0.500
Player:
Opponent:
63.16% (G:10.08% B:0.44%)
36.84% (G:5.71% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.492...+0.507) - [100.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 10 seconds
2.xgRollout113/10 6/2eq: +0.453 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
61.77% (G:8.55% B:0.33%)
38.23% (G:4.12% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.445...+0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 15 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 6/2eq: +0.441 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
61.56% (G:9.54% B:0.34%)
38.44% (G:5.46% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.432...+0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/13 6/2.

My 4 is automatic: 6/2. However, my 3 is far from automatic. 13/10 may look to be automatic but I don’t think it is once I look at the blots on their side of the board. 13/10 doesn’t do as much to contain their back checker as I’d like.

So let’s look at 8/5. This looks better but still suffers to their 66. The only 1’s I am worried about are 11, 15, 16. But lets look at 16/13 with the idea of blocking 66 for while and simply playing around my checker on the 16 point as a builder.

But is 16/13 too loose? I don’t think so since while they have 14 shots I don’t think they are supposed to hit with all those rolls. If I hit back, I usually win and now I don’t usually lose to their 66. I cannot stress enough the importance of considering all 30 pieces on the board. I’ll try 16/13 6/2.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABB--CACa--bB---d-bbb-bA-:0:0:1:61:4:5:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 134
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bECD---bB---d-cab-a-A:0:0:1:31:4:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 6/3eq: -0.379
Player:
Opponent:
42.86% (G:6.63% B:0.24%)
57.14% (G:16.75% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.388...-0.370) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 7/4eq: -0.409 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
41.96% (G:6.61% B:0.26%)
58.04% (G:17.33% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.419...-0.399) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 8/7eq: -0.437 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
41.38% (G:5.48% B:0.20%)
58.62% (G:18.13% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.445...-0.428) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/24 6/3
[18] b/22 8/7
[ 4] b/24 7/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 6/3

Bar/22 8/7 leaves the fewest shots but takes all pressure off Neil.

Bar/24 6/3 keeps the pressure on both Neil’s blots, duplicates his 1’s to hit and cover the 5 point and playing 6/3 maximises our covering rolls.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/24 6/3

We are down in the race, so escaping does not necessarily lead to winning. Entering on the 24 point will make it difficult for Neil to safe both blots unless he rolls a 3. Of course this involves the risk of being primed or attacked later but this can happen after we enter on the 22 point too. But entering on the 22 point will most probably miss out an opportunity to hit a shot and gain an considerable racing advantage.

Let us look out for the 3. 7/4 would be more beautiful but it strips the midpoint, so we “break the mountain” (Michihito Kageyama) and unstack the 6 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-bDCD---bB---d-cab-aA-:0:0:-1:44:4:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout113/5 8/4 6/2eq: +0.525
Player:
Opponent:
60.98% (G:18.98% B:0.39%)
39.02% (G:5.32% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.520...+0.529) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 46 minutes
2.playedRollout120/16(2) 13/5eq: +0.504 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
62.30% (G:13.97% B:0.43%)
37.70% (G:7.60% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.500...+0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 16 minutes
3.Rollout213/9 13/5 6/2eq: +0.464 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
60.33% (G:15.66% B:0.28%)
39.67% (G:4.61% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.455...+0.472) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/16(2) 13/5.

A nice roll for me. After a good look I think I need to try hard to do better than 13/5 13/9 6/2 which leaves my back checkers disconnected and gives them several nice rolls to escape into the outfield. However, it could be an error to not make a 4 pt board.

I can play 8/4 instead of 13/9 for better outfield coverage. If they roll 66 and hit me I get a direct shot so I am no worse than if I play 13/9. But they hit and cover with some aces. This position also looks a bit “funny”.

If I am going to leave an ace shot, 20/16(2) 13/5 looks best to me. This play gives better outfield control and heads for home, noting that I have the racing lead now. I think it is worth some risk from their aces.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 115
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A--DCDb--aB---d-cbb-aA-:0:0:1:55:4:5:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bE-D---bEa--d-cab--A-:0:0:1:66:4:5:0:11:10
to play 66

1.xgRollout113/7(2) 8/2(2)eq: -0.441
Player:
Opponent:
40.31% (G:5.97% B:0.17%)
59.69% (G:14.90% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.449...-0.433) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
2.playedRollout124/18 13/7(3)eq: -0.477 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
40.28% (G:5.15% B:0.32%)
59.72% (G:16.60% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.486...-0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
3.Rollout113/7(3) 8/2eq: -0.499 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
39.17% (G:6.33% B:0.20%)
60.83% (G:15.48% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.508...-0.489) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/18 13/7(3)
[14] 13/7(2) 8/2(2)
[ 3] 13/7(3) 8/2
[ 1] 24/18 13/7(2) 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7(2) 8/2(2)

If we look at this in terms of Magriel’s Safe vs Bold criteria, Neil has the stronger board, an advanced anchor and more checkers back. All of which tells us we should be making a Safe play. That means 24/18 is not going to be part of our play. Neil has too many hit and cover rolls after that play.

First we will move 13/7(2) then decide how to play the last couple of 2’s. If we move another 13/7 we strip the 13 point and have to play 8/2 leaving a blot in our inner board. We are forced to play 8/2 at least once so why not just play 8/2(2) creating another inner board point? So my play is 13/7(2) 8/2(2).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bECD---bBa--dAcab----:0:0:-1:54:4:5:0:11:10
to play 54

1.xgRollout111/7* 8/3eq: -0.030
Player:
Opponent:
48.03% (G:13.39% B:0.39%)
51.97% (G:10.28% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.034...-0.026) - [91.3%]
Duration: 9 hours 13 minutes
2.playedRollout111/7* 7/2eq: -0.034 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
47.88% (G:12.80% B:0.32%)
52.12% (G:9.04% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.039...-0.030) - [8.7%]
Duration: 10 hours 06 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/7*/2.

I have to hit 11/7* to try to avoid a holding game where I am behind in the race. Now my 5 is not good. I see only two decent 5’s. 8/3 is the more pure 5, but I fear the extra blot and shots in spite of my anchor as they have a nice array of builders to pounce on blots that enter. 7/2 seems better, and still tries to build my board, but with one fewer blot.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 134
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bECD---bB---d-cab-a-A:0:0:1:13:4:5:0:11:10
to play 13

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bE-C---cF---dae----A-:0:0:1:32:4:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout113/10 6/4eq: -0.410
Player:
Opponent:
41.66% (G:6.69% B:0.26%)
58.34% (G:16.66% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.422...-0.398) - [99.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
2.playedRollout113/8eq: -0.431 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
41.17% (G:5.31% B:0.26%)
58.83% (G:15.92% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.442...-0.420) - [0.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 6/4eq: -0.432 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
40.85% (G:4.57% B:0.24%)
59.15% (G:15.33% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.442...-0.422) - [0.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
4.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: -0.442 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
41.19% (G:5.93% B:0.30%)
58.81% (G:17.71% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.452...-0.431) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 13/8
[11] 6/4 6/3
[ 8] 24/21 6/4
[ 4] 13/10 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10 6/4

We really want to unstack the 13 point. So that means either 13/8 or 13/10 6/4. We want to start our board, so we should go with 13/10 6/4 but would not argue with a chouette team mate who wanted 13/8.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/10 6/4

Moving up from the 24 point makes no sense. Neil has no priming threat yet and we are down in the race. We like the contact and are curious if Neil will be able to safe his blot next roll. Since we have only one checker back we even cannot anchor what again speaks against moving up.

6/4 6/3 is a strong contender because our prime goal is building homeboard points. The only drawback is our lack of builders in the zone which results in bad distribution and inflexibility. 13/10 6/4 is more flexible and covering the 10 point would be useful too. But the race is not lost yet and getting hit costs our remaining racing chances. This must be a very close call.

Since Neil has not established a point yet I wold slightly prefer the recommended play due to its better distribution.

13/8 is too shy as regards to our racing.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bE-D---cE---dae----A-:0:0:-1:22:4:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/11 7/5 6/4(2)eq: +0.474
Player:
Opponent:
58.99% (G:17.92% B:0.37%)
41.01% (G:6.15% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.463...+0.485) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 8/4 6/4eq: +0.444 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
58.13% (G:18.40% B:0.41%)
41.87% (G:6.12% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.432...+0.455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52226481
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 7/5 6/4(2).

Duane Jensen sends me a 22 to play every day and from seeing many of these I am virtually certain that my first two 2’s make my 4 point. Then I play 13/11 after which 7/5 seems a bit better than 8/6. This leaves me in the nice position where I have a builder 6 pips away from my slotted 5 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bE-D---bEa--d-cab--A-:0:0:1:66:4:5:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBBBBA-AA----dccc-Baa-:0:0:-1:00:4:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 78.01% (G:6.27% B:0.04%) 78.27% (G:6.01% B:0.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 21.99% (G:1.81% B:0.05%) 21.73% (G:2.00% B:0.07%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.605 +1.227
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.931 (-0.069)±0.005 (+0.926..+0.935)
     Double/Take:+1.128 (+0.128)±0.007 (+1.121..+1.134)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75636980
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Pass
[ 4] Take


Neil Kazaross wins one point and now leads 6-away/7-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:54:4:5:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20 13/8eq: +0.021
Player:
Opponent:
50.58% (G:14.24% B:0.90%)
49.42% (G:13.74% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.016...+0.026) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 22 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.004 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
49.90% (G:15.58% B:0.94%)
50.10% (G:14.06% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.001...+0.009) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 39 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75636980
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 13/8.

I almost always make the usual split with an opening 54.



USBGF Members: 65 24/13


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dF---d-e----A-:0:0:-1:64:4:5:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/20 13/7eq: +0.128
Player:
Opponent:
51.71% (G:12.70% B:0.32%)
48.29% (G:6.39% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.118...+0.139) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
2.Rollout120/10eq: +0.067 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
51.54% (G:11.72% B:0.44%)
48.46% (G:10.23% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.057...+0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75636980
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 13/7.

The normal way to play 64 after 54 split (unless leaving a double shot), is to anchor and slot the bar. By making their 5 point, I will lose fewer gammons.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bE-C---cF---dae----A-:0:0:1:32:4:5:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-11-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBBBBA---B---dccc-Baa-:0:0:1:21:4:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout113/12 13/11eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.80% (G:2.02% B:0.08%)
78.20% (G:6.10% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 50 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout113/10eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.74% (G:1.93% B:0.08%)
78.26% (G:6.16% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 32 minutes 16 seconds
3.xgRollout113/11 4/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.90% (G:2.10% B:0.09%)
78.10% (G:6.56% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 34 minutes 30 seconds
4.Rollout113/12 5/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.92% (G:2.06% B:0.08%)
78.08% (G:6.69% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 35 minutes 25 seconds
5.Rollout113/12 8/6eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.68% (G:1.96% B:0.08%)
78.32% (G:6.20% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 45 minutes 50 seconds
6.Rollout113/11 7/6eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.67% (G:1.93% B:0.08%)
78.33% (G:6.24% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 34 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 75636980
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 13/12 13/11
[ 6] 9/6
[ 5] 13/10
[ 2] 13/11 7/6
[ 1] 13/12 8/6
[ 1] 7/6 7/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBBBBA-AA----dccc-Baa-:0:0:-1:00:4:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-11-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABCBB---cC---e-cc-B-a-:0:0:1:42:4:4:0:11:10
to play 42

1.Rollout17/3 6/4eq: -0.793
Player:
Opponent:
28.23% (G:2.80% B:0.11%)
71.77% (G:4.21% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.796...-0.790) - [83.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 56 minutes
2.playedRollout113/9 6/4eq: -0.796 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
28.17% (G:2.77% B:0.09%)
71.83% (G:4.22% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.799...-0.793) - [9.1%]
Duration: 6 hours 44 minutes
3.Rollout113/9 7/5eq: -0.796 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
28.15% (G:2.91% B:0.10%)
71.85% (G:4.60% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.799...-0.793) - [6.5%]
Duration: 6 hours 37 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 7/3eq: -0.798 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
28.19% (G:2.95% B:0.12%)
71.81% (G:4.83% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.801...-0.795) - [0.7%]
Duration: 6 hours 22 minutes
5.Rollout113/11 8/4eq: -0.798 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
28.13% (G:2.77% B:0.09%)
71.87% (G:4.35% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.801...-0.795) - [0.4%]
Duration: 5 hours 40 minutes
6.Rollout18/4 5/3eq: -0.799 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
28.11% (G:2.94% B:0.12%)
71.89% (G:4.83% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.802...-0.796) - [0.2%]
Duration: 5 hours 27 minutes
7.Rollout18/4 7/5eq: -0.799 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
28.05% (G:2.78% B:0.09%)
71.95% (G:4.36% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.802...-0.796) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 hours 20 minutes
8.Rollout113/9 8/6eq: -0.799 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
28.07% (G:2.88% B:0.11%)
71.93% (G:4.67% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.803...-0.796) - [0.1%]
Duration: 4 hours 12 minutes
9.Rollout17/5 7/3eq: -0.800 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
28.02% (G:2.87% B:0.11%)
71.98% (G:4.60% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.803...-0.797) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 45 minutes
10.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.802 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
27.95% (G:2.78% B:0.10%)
72.05% (G:4.43% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.805...-0.799) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 20 minutes
11.Rollout18/6 8/4eq: -0.804 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
27.84% (G:2.66% B:0.09%)
72.16% (G:4.34% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.807...-0.801) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 59 minutes
12.Rollout113/11 6/2eq: -0.805 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
27.95% (G:2.87% B:0.09%)
72.05% (G:4.89% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.808...-0.802) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 13 minutes
13.Rollout18/6 7/3eq: -0.806 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
28.02% (G:3.09% B:0.12%)
71.98% (G:5.39% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.809...-0.802) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes
14.Rollout213/7eq: -0.806 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
27.84% (G:2.77% B:0.10%)
72.16% (G:4.54% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.813...-0.799) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 13/9 6/4
[ 6] 13/11 8/4
[ 3] 7/3 6/4
[ 1] 8/4 7/5
[ 1] 22/18 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/3 6/4

First, let’s make our 4 point with 6/4.

Next how to play the 4? 13/9 looks nice but I always remember reading an article by Kit Woolsey years ago that said go ahead and slot the next point in your board, so we should play 7/3. For this to go wrong, we should need to get a shot, hit the shot and fail to cover the blot on our 3 point, then Neil would have to hit it and that sequence of events is unlikely as Neil will not leave a shot unless he has to. The short version is “if in doubt, slot the next point in your board”. If a shot was very likely next turn, we should consider not slotting, but not here.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 7/3 6/4

Although I must admit that I probably might have played 13/9 6/4, 7/3 6/4 is probably better. Here the difference is very small but we should take the opportunity to grasp the principle for similar situations. The principle is to achieve the best distribution of checkers to build the homeboard points in the right order and as quick as possible. This is achieved by 7/3 6/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBBBBA--cB---e-cc-B-a-:0:0:-1:00:4:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross does not double.

This is tempting to cube but their position is about perfect for a 3 point game and I lack my 4 and 7 points and expect to run out of spares soon. I think it prudent to take another roll.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBBBBA--cB---e-cc-B-a-:0:0:-1:66:4:4:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7(3) 8/2.

This is my best roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBBBBA---B---dccc-Baa-:0:0:1:21:4:4:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABCBB---dB---e-cb-C-a-:0:0:1:54:4:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.xgRollout122/18 8/3eq: -0.735
Player:
Opponent:
30.80% (G:4.41% B:0.16%)
69.20% (G:8.84% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.739...-0.732) - [84.9%]
Duration: 8 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout122/18 13/8eq: -0.739 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
31.10% (G:4.21% B:0.13%)
68.90% (G:10.11% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.743...-0.735) - [6.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 07 minutes
3.Rollout18/4 8/3eq: -0.739 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
30.13% (G:3.68% B:0.11%)
69.87% (G:6.47% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.742...-0.736) - [4.6%]
Duration: 7 hours 27 minutes
4.Rollout18/3 7/3eq: -0.739 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
30.13% (G:3.66% B:0.10%)
69.87% (G:6.47% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.743...-0.736) - [3.7%]
Duration: 7 hours 33 minutes
5.Rollout18/4 7/2eq: -0.741 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
30.19% (G:3.87% B:0.12%)
69.81% (G:7.14% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.745...-0.738) - [0.2%]
Duration: 6 hours 49 minutes
6.Rollout18/3 6/2eq: -0.746 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
30.04% (G:4.16% B:0.12%)
69.96% (G:7.71% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.749...-0.742) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 51 minutes
7.Rollout213/4eq: -0.748 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
30.16% (G:3.76% B:0.10%)
69.84% (G:7.39% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.756...-0.740) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
8.Rollout222/18 7/2eq: -0.749 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
30.57% (G:4.55% B:0.20%)
69.43% (G:9.48% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.757...-0.740) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
9.Rollout27/3 7/2eq: -0.749 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
29.91% (G:4.06% B:0.12%)
70.09% (G:7.35% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.757...-0.740) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
10.Rollout27/2 6/2eq: -0.751 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
29.73% (G:3.69% B:0.12%)
70.27% (G:6.75% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.760...-0.743) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 25 seconds
11.Rollout213/9 13/8eq: -0.754 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
29.88% (G:3.60% B:0.10%)
70.12% (G:6.84% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.762...-0.746) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
12.Rollout213/9 8/3eq: -0.754 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
30.29% (G:4.10% B:0.06%)
69.71% (G:8.68% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.762...-0.746) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
13.playedRollout222/13eq: -0.769 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
28.63% (G:2.85% B:0.10%)
71.37% (G:4.09% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.777...-0.762) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 22/13
[12] 8/4 8/3
[ 3] 22/18 8/3
[ 1] 13/4


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/4

The first most obvious contender is 22/13. This play is safe but antithematic, since it is a racing play. We have to hit a blot and contain it by forcing contact and/or building a strong board. And Neil still has a blot on the ace point which indicates bold play.

Taking into account that the 13 point is not strong in getting a shot when the opponents last checker is on his 13 point, 13/4 seems to be better since it turns any shot to come into an almost winning shot. The risk of getting hit is reduced by Neil’s blot on the ace point. Over the board 13/4 would be my choice.

XG probably plays 22/18 8/3. XG obviously finds that having all checkers in place and maximum contact is better than having a stronger board at this moment obviously due to Neil’s weak two point board and his blot on the ace. This is hard to find since this play adds a blot to our homeboard and relinquishes the valuable 8 point. It may make sense, but I doubt that there are many players out there who would find this best without XG´s help. This position is worth an in-depth study which I cannot deliver with this comment.

The difference with the previous position, where XG prefers the safer play is that by attacking on the 18 point the opponent cannot make the third point in his homeboard, whereas by attacking on the 4 point he will end up with an additional point if we fail to hit.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABCBB---dC---e-cb-B-a-:0:0:-1:00:4:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.47% (G:4.04% B:0.11%) 71.71% (G:3.83% B:0.14%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.53% (G:2.74% B:0.08%) 28.29% (G:2.78% B:0.08%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.443 +0.901
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.780±0.007 (+0.772..+0.787)
     Double/Take:+0.755 (-0.024)±0.009 (+0.747..+0.764)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.220)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I think I am too awkward to cube and no one will pass if I do. So I’ll wait for a slight improvement should one come.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABCBB---dC---e-cb-B-a-:0:0:-1:62:4:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/5eq: +0.775
Player:
Opponent:
71.54% (G:4.04% B:0.08%)
28.46% (G:2.63% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.767...+0.783) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.Rollout18/6 8/2eq: +0.726 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
69.87% (G:4.53% B:0.11%)
30.13% (G:3.15% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.719...+0.734) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/5.

Better than average roll with a nice smooth 13/5 to play and a cube to consider next roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABCBB---cC---e-cc-B-a-:0:0:1:42:4:4:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----A-DBC--adB-a-c-cb-C-a-:0:0:1:31:4:4:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.727
Player:
Opponent:
30.84% (G:4.85% B:0.15%)
69.16% (G:8.79% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.736...-0.718) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2.Rollout17/4 6/5eq: -0.752 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
30.45% (G:5.13% B:0.14%)
69.55% (G:9.82% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.761...-0.742) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
3.Rollout122/21 7/4eq: -0.755 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
30.87% (G:5.82% B:0.23%)
69.13% (G:12.27% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.765...-0.744) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
4.Rollout18/4eq: -0.762 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
29.85% (G:4.66% B:0.17%)
70.15% (G:9.10% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.772...-0.752) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 8/5 6/5
[ 6] 22/21 7/4
[ 1] 8/4
[ 1] 22/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 6/5

We have an interesting choice here, 22/21 7/4 going for contact now or 8/5 6/5.

The issue with 22/21 7/4 is that we give up the 7 point. In these types of positions, where you can make the 5 point or some other play, I remember Stick’s advice of ‘Make the 5 point unless you are convinced the other play is correct’. Here, I am not correct the other play is correct so I will make the 5 point. As Stick would say, when it is wrong it is not wrong by much, but when it is right, it is usually right by a lot.

If you moved one of our checkers 8/7 so we retained the 7 point after 22/21 7/4, then that could be the right play.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/5 6/5

Having the return shot on Neils ace point and a further blot on his 14 point makes it very tempting to play 22/21 6/5 in order to challenge Neil’s checker on his 10 point. He will hardly be able to play shot free unless he rolls a 4 or 31. First we want to hit a shot and only second we want to contain it. And with so many blots our best chance to hit a shot is bold play by creating contact. Correct?

Maybe, but hitting a shot does not necessarily mean winning the game.

It is clear that due to the better homeboard after 8/5 6/5 we will win more games after hitting than if we would play 22/21 6/5. Still we may win the same number or even more games after we play 22/21 6/5 due to achieving more hits. The question is, what pays off better, more hits with fewer wins after having hit or fewer hits with more wins after having hit? This question is hard to answer and subject to every detail of the position and to experience. Here it turns out that the total number of wins is almost equal and comparing the resulting positions you might be able to guess this over the board.

In particular cases when you have the choice between two plays of equal winning chances you must look at the gammons i.e. if either play brings or costs more gammons for you.

It is easy to see that 22/21 6/5 costs considerably more gammons. Our blot on Neil’s 21 point is immediately under attack, and even if we hit next roll there will be many sequences that result in getting hit in our own homebaord, which will be more vulnerable than after making the 5 point. On the other hand our chances of winning gammon do not increase by the bold play since this goes along with a weaker homeboard.

A rule of thumb we might apply here that in the midgame, a permanent asset (our better board after making the 5 point) normally trumps the tactical advantage of getting more shots.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABCBB--adB-a-c-cb-C-a-:0:0:-1:62:4:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout114/8 10/8eq: +0.722
Player:
Opponent:
69.23% (G:7.13% B:0.15%)
30.77% (G:3.96% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.713...+0.730) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
2.Rollout114/6eq: +0.653 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
67.33% (G:8.93% B:0.20%)
32.67% (G:5.30% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.644...+0.662) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/8 10/8.

Their board has improved, so I have to play safe even if it is a bit awkward.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABCBB---dB---e-cb-C-a-:0:0:1:54:4:4:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EAC---dC-a-c-cb-C-a-:0:0:1:62:4:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 6/4eq: -0.455
Player:
Opponent:
39.81% (G:9.46% B:0.59%)
60.19% (G:17.98% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.468...-0.443) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: -0.553 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
37.29% (G:8.74% B:0.65%)
62.71% (G:18.43% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.564...-0.541) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
3.Rollout122/16 7/5eq: -0.573 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
37.31% (G:8.39% B:0.50%)
62.69% (G:19.29% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.584...-0.562) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
4.Rollout113/7 8/6eq: -0.580 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
35.99% (G:8.06% B:0.38%)
64.01% (G:15.91% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.590...-0.570) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
5.Rollout122/14eq: -0.642 (-0.187)
Player:
Opponent:
35.65% (G:7.66% B:0.33%)
64.35% (G:19.30% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.652...-0.631) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 13/7 6/4
[ 3] 13/7 8/6
[ 1] 22/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 6/4

First we need to play 13/7 giving us at least one more asset.

If we look at this in terms of Paul Magriel’s safe versus bold criteria, although Neil has a stronger board, we have an anchor, more checkers back and Neil has an inner board blot, so we should be considering making a bold play. The bold play that springs to mind here is playing 6/4 which also has the benefit of starting to unstack our 6 point.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/7 6/4

Since we are down in the race we should focus on attacking or priming. 13/7 is obvious. 6/4 is the only remaining reasonable play for the 2. If it works we will be able to establish the 4 point and will have a good blocking structure. Getting hit does hardly matter since the race is lost anyway and we even might hit the blot on Neil’s ace point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--A-DBC---dB-a-c-cb-C-a-:0:0:-1:00:4:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60.27% (G:18.25% B:0.66%) 60.33% (G:18.33% B:0.79%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.73% (G:9.38% B:0.46%) 39.67% (G:9.39% B:0.76%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.298 +0.612
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.462±0.012 (+0.450..+0.473)
     Double/Take:+0.305 (-0.156)±0.016 (+0.290..+0.321)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.538)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I have an advantage but it seems not enough to double.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--A-DBC---dB-a-c-cb-C-a-:0:0:-1:64:4:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/14eq: +0.476
Player:
Opponent:
62.47% (G:12.73% B:0.57%)
37.53% (G:8.90% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.466...+0.487) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout110/4 8/4eq: +0.371 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:
58.48% (G:17.12% B:0.56%)
41.52% (G:9.34% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.360...+0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/14.

I can either make my 4 point or run out. Running out looks like it better caters to my overall game plan since I am well ahead in the race. If I make my 4 point and they make their 4 point, my back checker doesn’t look so good back on the ace point. When I run out I leave 17 shots but some these shots come at a cost for them. 2’s are duped from their stripped midpoint. The indirects leave me return shots as well.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----A-DBC--adB-a-c-cb-C-a-:0:0:1:31:4:4:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---b-cb-A-aA:0:0:1:63:4:4:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.135
Player:
Opponent:
46.93% (G:13.69% B:0.67%)
53.07% (G:15.60% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.140...-0.130) - [99.7%]
Duration: 15 hours 55 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/22 9/3eq: -0.144 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
46.59% (G:13.09% B:0.59%)
53.41% (G:14.79% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.149...-0.140) - [0.3%]
Duration: 15 hours 02 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/16eq: -0.186 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
47.16% (G:11.69% B:0.68%)
52.84% (G:18.84% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.197...-0.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] b/22 13/7
[12] b/22 9/3
[ 4] b/16



Neil Kazaross: 51 24/18*
USBGF Members: 32 b/22 9/7*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----EAC---eC---b-cb-C-a-:0:0:-1:55:4:4:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout1Bar/10 6/1eq: +0.427
Player:
Opponent:
59.95% (G:16.34% B:0.55%)
40.05% (G:9.49% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.423...+0.432) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 hours 58 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/10 13/8eq: +0.411 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
59.76% (G:15.97% B:0.61%)
40.24% (G:9.99% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.406...+0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 32 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/15 13/8 6/1eq: +0.375 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
58.85% (G:16.26% B:0.55%)
41.15% (G:10.54% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.364...+0.386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/5eq: +0.361 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
58.64% (G:14.85% B:0.55%)
41.36% (G:10.22% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.351...+0.372) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/10 13/8.

The first three 5’s go B/10 and then I have three choices. I prefer 13/8 over 10/5 due to better building potential. I can afford leave leave four somewhat duplicated indirects when I get returns when hit.

Now for 6/1. It is often correct just to cover that blot but what a stripped ugly position I leave. That play hurts my eyes.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EAC---dC-a-c-cb-C-a-:0:0:1:62:4:4:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 82
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 64
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCED-b---A-------d-bbcb-:1:-1:1:61:2:4:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout111/5 2/1eq: +0.845
Player:
Opponent:
92.98% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
7.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.844...+0.846) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 4/3eq: +0.841 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
92.78% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
7.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.840...+0.841) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
3.Rollout111/5 3/2eq: +0.838 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
92.69% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
7.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.837...+0.839) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 12 seconds
4.Rollout111/4eq: +0.832 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
92.40% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
7.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.831...+0.833) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 11/5 2/1
[ 4] 11/5 4/3
[ 1] 11/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/5 2/1

I believe the best play is to simply play 2/1, putting a checker on the vacant 1 point.

Now we have only one checker on the 2 point, but after we have taken off the remaining checker on the 2 point, we have good 2’s, any 2 can be played 4/2 refilling the vacant 2 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 82
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AACEE-b-----------d-bbcb-:1:-1:-1:22:2:4:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout118/10eq: -0.863
Player:
Opponent:
6.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.79% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.864...-0.862) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout118/16 18/12eq: -0.867 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
6.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.95% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.867...-0.866) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/10.

18/10 makes a crossover and lets all my large doubles play well.



USBGF Members: 51 5/0 1/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 74
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 51
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACED-a-------a---d-bbcb-:1:-1:-1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout118/10eq: -0.866
Player:
Opponent:
6.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.867...-0.866) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout118/12 6/4eq: -0.867 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
6.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.868...-0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 12 seconds
3.Rollout218/12 10/8eq: -0.874 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
5.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.875...-0.873) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds
4.Rollout218/16 10/4eq: -0.876 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
5.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.877...-0.875) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/10.

18/10 follows the plans of getting good 5’s and making big doubles work.



USBGF Members: 65 5/0(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 41
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACEB---------b---d-bbcb-:1:-1:-1:43:2:4:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout110/3eq: -0.949
Player:
Opponent:
2.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.949...-0.949) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30.7 seconds
2.playedRollout110/7 10/6eq: -0.952 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.952...-0.951) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.6 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/7 10/6.

I think I need 66 to have a chance. This play looks close for my 3.



USBGF Members: 64 5/0 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 62 7/5 6/0
USBGF Members: 66 5/0 4/0(3)
Neil Kazaross: 54 5/0 4/0
USBGF Members: 33 4/1 3/0(3)


USBGF Members win two points, and the match is tied 7-away/7-away.



USBGF Members: 41 24/23 13/9
Neil Kazaross: 41 6/2*/1*
USBGF Members: 53 b/22 b/20
Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5* 6/5

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---b-cb-A-aA:0:0:1:36:4:4:0:11:10
to play 36

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 100
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CCCBbB--B-------c-bbcb-:1:-1:1:44:2:4:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout18/4(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0.550
Player:
Opponent:
77.62% (G:7.10% B:0.06%)
22.38% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.547...+0.553) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 5/1*(3) eq: +0.356 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent:
68.39% (G:10.67% B:0.06%)
31.61% (G:2.69% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.352...+0.360) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 8/4(2) 6/2(2)
[11] 8/4 5/1*(3)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4(2) 6/2(2)

If we put Neil on the bar with 8/4 5/1*(3), he will hit us with 62, 21, 51 and 53 – that’s eight rolls or 22% of the time. That is too much.

If we play 8/4(2) 6/2(2) then 55, 44, 33, 22, 54, 53, 52, 43 and 42 weaken his board so that if we later get hit it will not be as bad. That’s 14 rolls or 39% of the time. I may have missed some rolls — I did that quickly.

So let’s go with 8/4(2) 6/2(2) as it leaves no blots and still has three active builders aimed at Neil’s blot on our 1 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 100
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBCEC-b---B-------c-bbcb-:1:-1:-1:33:2:4:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout118/6eq: -0.630
Player:
Opponent:
19.89% (G:0.58% B:0.01%)
80.11% (G:8.48% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.632...-0.627) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout118/12(2)eq: -0.644 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
16.93% (G:0.36% B:0.01%)
83.07% (G:3.76% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.646...-0.641) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/6.

With their board broken, I should look at taking some chances to get more shots. This will get me gammoned more often but also win more often.

If I run 18/12(2), I get a direct shot after 41 65 and 64 — six rolls. If I play 18/6, I get a direct after 61 62 63 65 51 52 and 53 — 14 rolls.

So the big play gets a shot on eight more rolls. I think this is worth some risk of losing a gammon. My quick analysis doesn’t consider indirect shots. I also don’t win all my hits but I have to be at least a slight favorite if I hit.

18/6 plays to win and is my choice as my gammon cost is only slight worse than for money. I think I am too far down in the race to run and if I run, I still leave a vulnerable checker back.



USBGF Members: 51 11/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 88
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 64
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBCED-a---A-------d-bbcb-:1:-1:-1:51:2:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout124/18eq: -0.756
Player:
Opponent:
10.73% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
89.27% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.758...-0.754) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22.5 seconds
2.Rollout118/13 6/5eq: -0.799 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
9.87% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
90.13% (G:2.05% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.801...-0.797) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
3.Rollout118/12eq: -0.803 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
9.30% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
90.70% (G:1.39% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.805...-0.802) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 01 second
4.Rollout118/13 2/1eq: -0.816 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
8.92% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
91.08% (G:1.77% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.818...-0.814) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
5.Rollout124/19 6/5eq: -0.836 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
9.85% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
90.15% (G:5.52% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.838...-0.834) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
6.Rollout124/19 2/1eq: -0.848 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
8.87% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
91.13% (G:4.71% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.850...-0.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/18.

Backgammon is a math game, so let’s see how often I can hit next roll after anchoring or staying back.

If I play 24/18, I can hit them 15 times after 44 and 12 times after 22 and 11 times after 11, 21, 31 for 82 times.

If I play 18/13 6/5, I can hit them 11 times after 55 and 41 for 33 times. Now let’s check indirects. I get two shots after 11, as they shift. I get four shots after 21 31 assuming they come forward which may not be best. 32 and 43 and 42 point on me leaving two shots. So this looks like 16 addition shots from indirects for a total of 49. So by anchoring, I hit them 33 times more often on my next roll. That is about 2.5% more. But if I stay back I can hit something later but with their useful stacks, it isn’t terribly likely. Also, if I am to roll a couple sets of big doubles to get into the race I’d prefer not to waste them on the bar. Perhaps staying back hits more often long term, but as I have slight racing chances I am not sure what the best DMP play is. This clinches it for me, as by coming out, I won’t lose a freak gammon from getting pointed on and then dancing for a long time.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 82
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 64
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCED-b---A-------d-bbcb-:1:-1:1:61:2:4:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-25

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CB-BcCB-B-----A-c-bdb--:1:-1:1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout117/11 8/6eq: +0.493
Player:
Opponent:
73.75% (G:10.03% B:0.21%)
26.25% (G:1.61% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.489...+0.498) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 48 seconds
2.playedRollout117/9eq: +0.462 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
73.30% (G:7.76% B:0.17%)
26.70% (G:1.66% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.457...+0.466) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 17/9
[ 5] 17/11 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 17/11 8/6

I really like playing 17/11 then 8/6. 8/6 means we put Neil on the bar with 52 and 44 puts Neil on the bar without leaving a blot.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 17/9

This is what I would have played over the board for the following reasons:

It leaves no shot. We avoid three checkers on the highest because we want to clear it first. Stripping the highest point doesn’t cost much. After both safe plays we have two builders for the 5 point. Of course we would like to have a spare on the 6 point in order to have two builders for the ace point to, but when we cannot move the checker from the 11 point next roll we will be in trouble soon.

The better play according to XG is 17/11 8/6. Checking with XG´s dice distribution tool brings 13 good (green) rolls for my play and only nine good rolls for the better play. But seven of the good rolls work so well that even the fact that the better play has 3.6% more anti jokers still does not matter.

At XG++, 17/11 8/6 is even better when Neil holds the 5 point.

At this time I do not know how to get this right over the board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 102
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CB-BcCC-B-------c-bdb--:1:-1:-1:64:2:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout118/8eq: -0.416
Player:
Opponent:
28.10% (G:1.61% B:0.02%)
71.90% (G:6.68% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.420...-0.411) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 6/2eq: -0.450 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
24.15% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
75.85% (G:0.71% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.454...-0.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 21 seconds
3.Rollout118/12 6/2eq: -0.455 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
27.35% (G:1.89% B:0.03%)
72.65% (G:8.91% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.460...-0.451) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/8.

I’ll go 18/8, trying to win the game while risking some more gammon losses as their structure is somewhat awkward.



USBGF Members: 43 9/5 8/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 95
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CBBBbBB-B-----a-c-bdb--:1:-1:-1:43:2:4:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout18/1eq: -0.686
Player:
Opponent:
21.51% (G:2.34% B:0.04%)
78.49% (G:17.72% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.690...-0.682) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 6/2eq: -0.744 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
20.71% (G:2.53% B:0.05%)
79.29% (G:21.01% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.748...-0.740) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout18/4 6/3eq: -0.749 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
19.70% (G:1.79% B:0.01%)
80.30% (G:19.40% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.754...-0.745) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/1.

This exchange of 43’s has left me a big underdog. Best now must be 8/1 trying to make a 5 point board and hoping for a 6 to escape.



USBGF Members: 54 9/5 9/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CCCBbB--B-------c-bdba-:1:-1:-1:21:2:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout13/2 3/1eq: -0.757
Player:
Opponent:
18.21% (G:1.47% B:0.02%)
81.79% (G:17.17% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.760...-0.753) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout16/5 3/1eq: -0.777 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
17.98% (G:1.26% B:0.01%)
82.02% (G:18.20% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.781...-0.773) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 3/2 3/1.

3/1 makes a 5 point board, and since I don’t see how I benefit from a slot I can’t cover, my ace is 3/2.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 100
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CCCBbB--B-------c-bbcb-:1:-1:1:44:2:4:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10