I hope you considered hitting with 22/16* and then swiftly rejected it. The last thing Red wants to do here is lose a gammon. Losing a single game is of little consequence because White
Ignoring the Obvious
Match Play. Double Match Point. How should Red play 33?
eXtreme Gammon ID: XGID=---aC-C-BC--aA-A---dcdb-B-:1:-1:1:33:5:5:0:7:10
Answer and Commentary
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More Bray's Learning Curve
After the forced bar/23* Red has the choice of (a) 23/20; (b) 13/10 (c) 8/5.
The worst place for a single checker in your opponent’s home board is on the 23-pt because its sixes are blocked.