USBGF OLM 2021-11-08

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---bBaD-C---cD---AbbbAb-a-:0:0:1:64:6:1:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout121/17 8/2eq: +0.127
Player:
Opponent:
56.66% (G:10.05% B:0.35%)
43.34% (G:9.42% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.118...+0.137) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
2.Rollout121/17 13/7eq: +0.038 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
55.45% (G:12.38% B:0.75%)
44.55% (G:13.03% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.028...+0.048) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
3.Rollout121/15 17/13eq: -0.071 (-0.198)
Player:
Opponent:
53.66% (G:8.66% B:0.46%)
46.34% (G:14.59% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.080...-0.062) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
4.Rollout117/13 8/2eq: -0.194 (-0.322)
Player:
Opponent:
50.80% (G:13.48% B:0.84%)
49.20% (G:18.71% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.206...-0.183) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
5.Rollout117/7eq: -0.213 (-0.340)
Player:
Opponent:
50.54% (G:13.96% B:1.03%)
49.46% (G:20.24% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.224...-0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
6.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.218 (-0.345)
Player:
Opponent:
49.75% (G:14.89% B:0.88%)
50.25% (G:19.75% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.228...-0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96378726
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 21/17 8/2
[ 8] 21/17 13/7
[ 5] 21/15 17/13
[ 2] 8/2 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2

We need to grab the 17 point with 21/17. Then, 13/7 gives Neil a double shot when his board is stronger than ours. 8/2 may look inflexible, but it is safe.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AbBaD-B---cD---Bbbb-b-a-:0:0:-1:65:6:1:0:11:10
to play 65

1.Rollout113/2eq: -0.155
Player:
Opponent:
42.17% (G:11.94% B:0.25%)
57.83% (G:13.41% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.158...-0.151) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 29 minutes
2.playedRollout120/15 7/1eq: -0.166 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
42.45% (G:9.13% B:0.18%)
57.55% (G:9.41% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.170...-0.163) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 36 minutes
3.Rollout120/9eq: -0.171 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
42.38% (G:9.05% B:0.20%)
57.62% (G:9.40% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.175...-0.167) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 17 minutes
4.Rollout220/15 13/7eq: -0.181 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
42.03% (G:9.33% B:0.23%)
57.97% (G:10.29% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.191...-0.172) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96378726
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96378726
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/15 7/1.

It seems normal to cover my ace point with 7/1. Then if I play 7/2 that blot will be there for a long time. 20/15 trying to come home makes more sense.



USBGF Members: 65 13/2
Neil Kazaross: 42 15/11 13/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbB-D-B---bCb--Babb-b-b-:0:0:1:53:6:1:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. Barry Murphy says:

    13/10 6/1 because 6/1 is safe and 13/10 is safe-ish too and there’s nothing else constructive to do with this roll and we are nearly even with pipcount.

  2. Ben Elliott says:

    13/10 6/1

  3. 13/5 is a candidate, but he has an anchor and a lead in board development, so i voted for 13/10 6/1. He nearly has TMP and is too willing to hit.

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