USBGF OLM 2021-10-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 64
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--b-BBBABB---A-A-----B-eh-:2:-1:1:21:0:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.Rollout113/12 9/7eq: +1.085
Player:
Opponent:
89.43% (G:31.25% B:1.00%)
10.57% (G:1.69% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.083...+1.086) - [80.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
2.Rollout19/8 9/7eq: +1.084 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
89.40% (G:31.17% B:1.00%)
10.60% (G:1.59% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.082...+1.085) - [14.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
3.xgRollout115/14 9/7eq: +1.083 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
89.37% (G:31.21% B:1.02%)
10.63% (G:1.67% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.082...+1.085) - [3.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
4.playedRollout121/20 9/7eq: +1.083 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
89.38% (G:31.17% B:1.01%)
10.62% (G:1.60% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.081...+1.084) - [1.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30493823
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 21/20 9/7
[ 3] 15/14 9/7
[ 2] 9/8 9/7
[ 2] 13/12 9/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/20 9/7

We have to create a solid five prime with 9/7, then after that we should just play 21/20, which diversifies our outfield numbers. This does risk Neil rolling 61 and hitting us 23/16*, but that is such a rare event and then we would have stay on the bar, not hit Neil’s fleeing checker and then he would have to you roll 61 again. That’s all such a rare event that we will risk it and be amazed if it happens.



Neil Kazaross: 43 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 64
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--b-BBBBBA---A-A----AA-eh-:2:-1:1:53:0:1:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. Rambiz Khalili Yazdi Rambiz Khalili Yazdi says:

    We need to start thinking about trap plays. It was not clear to me that we had to make the bar with that 21 the roll before, either. I go with 13/8 9/6. Let’s leave Neil at least two bad numbers.

  2. I agree with Jerry that we need to put most ammunition in place to complete the 6 prime by making the 9. After that we need to think about the best trapping play because he has only got a 2 point board. The best way to win a single game or a gammon is by trapping him, i.e. putting both of his checkers on the bar. How we do that will depend on what we roll after our 6 prime is made.

  3. Eric Stippler says:

    I don’t consider attempts to build the three point as cautious, rather systematic and sound. Trapping on the 4 point? A remote maybe, but not until we see how the remainder of our checkers can be arranged as they come home. 21/18 13/8 is solid and makes 55 a joker for us rather than an inconvenience.

  4. Todd Porter Todd Porter says:

    maybe I’m over thinking this but would like to set up a 7 point prime. then split the 4.

    This runs a small risk of him moving his anchor to the 4 point but if we can get both his checkers on the bar, maybe we can gammon him.

  5. Ben Elliott says:

    20/12

    • Jerry Nussbaum says:

      I agree with this, because I think the Most Important Point on the board is the 9 and this move put the most ammunition in place to make that 6 prime in front of his anchor. After that we can work on putting a blot on the 3 to work on a trap. 20/12

  6. Brion Brooks says:

    9/6 or 9/4 for sure. Then bring up a checker from his inner board. I’m not sure, but we’ll never win this by cautiously advancing the prime. We were cautious in not going for a third checker. We were cautious by not hitting him in our inner board and trying a close out. Now our caution has given him an anchor with us having little chance of cashing in a third checker. Our best hope is taking a chance and setting up a trap play. YMMV

Speak Your Mind