USBGF OLM 2021-10-09

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 62
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 180
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBB----a-CaB--A-dCbdc-:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.88% (G:16.39% B:0.48%) 70.39% (G:17.98% B:0.67%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.12% (G:17.96% B:0.09%) 29.61% (G:17.98% B:0.11%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.370 +0.907
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.713 (-0.149)±0.009 (+0.704..+0.722)
played Redouble/Take:+0.862±0.015 (+0.847..+0.877)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.138)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66007719
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] Redouble
[21] No Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Redouble

We hit with any 1, 2 or 4 so that gives us at least 27 hitting rolls. We double hit with 11 rolls so we must have market loses here. We have the best 3 point board that we could have. For money, this is a redouble this for money, especially against somebody of Neil’s calibre.

We are trailing in the match by 1 point, which a lot of players consider insignificant in an 11 point match, but this shwould be enough to make us redouble against any player. I expect Neil to take.


Neil Kazaross to play:

Neil Kazaross takes.

Eight rolls miss and they have only six checkers in the zone. Of course if they hit two they may have total outfield control but sometimes the dice have something to say about that.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 62
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 180
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBB----a-CaB--A-dCbdc-:2:-1:1:54:0:1:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. Eric Stippler says:

    I think Gary is right. We have to pickup the more advanced checker on the 14 point before he tiptoes to safety. After that moving onto the 9 point cuts Neil’s return shot tally from seven to two.

  2. run to the 9 point, after a brief stop on the 14 point. we need some diversification, but don’t want to offer more shots than necessary.

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