USBGF OLM 2020-10-22

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--EBBAA-eB---a-cbb--B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout124/22 13/9eq: -0.508
Player:
Opponent:
39.79% (G:10.49% B:0.53%)
60.21% (G:25.22% B:2.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.519...-0.497) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
2.playedRollout113/11 13/9eq: -0.535 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
38.55% (G:10.07% B:0.51%)
61.45% (G:21.61% B:1.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.547...-0.524) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83674657
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 13/11 13/9
[13] 24/22 13/9
[ 1] 9/5 7/5
[ 1] 13/9 10/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 13/9

Whatever else we do we have to play 13/9 blocking Neil’s 6’s.

There is an old saying “When your opponent has an advanced anchor, you need one too” or to quote a proverb from Michy’s book “counter and advanced anchor with an advanced anchor.” What both of these sayings are telling us to do is split 24/22 trying to get an advanced anchor. We can do this as Neil has only eight checkers in the zone, but if we took a checker from Neil’s midpoint and placed it on his 8 point so that we had nine checkers in the zone without adding any diversification, we would have to play 13/11. Nine checkers in the zone would be too many here for us to split.


Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 24/22 13/9

Making the 4 point is too bold. Staying on the 24 point allows Neil to prime our rear checkers too easily. We should try to stop him from doing so and to establish an anchor as well, or at least to escape next roll. Neil does not have enough checkers in the zone to make us worry too much about losing a gammon. We should choose the play that brings best improvement if it works.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--EBBBAAe----a-cbb--B-:0:0:-1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/11 13/9eq: +0.433
Player:
Opponent:
59.00% (G:21.04% B:1.34%)
41.00% (G:10.71% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.420...+0.445) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.Rollout113/7eq: +0.316 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
56.24% (G:19.09% B:1.12%)
43.76% (G:12.03% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.303...+0.328) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
3.Rollout113/11 8/4eq: +0.271 (-0.161)
Player:
Opponent:
55.04% (G:19.61% B:1.12%)
44.96% (G:11.20% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.259...+0.284) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60674284
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 13/9.

13/11 13/9 leaves me four builders to make my bar point and duplicates some of their point making numbers.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--EBBBAAc-a-aa-cbb--B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. Eric Stippler says:

    Since we didn’t split last move, I think we have to make the riskier play now and grab our 5 point with 10/5 8/5, leaving a direct 5 and a nasty joker 53.

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