USBGF OLM 2020-10-08

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 64
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBBB------b----dBBccc-:0:0:1:63:2:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.Rollout121/12eq: -0.242
Player:
Opponent:
41.60% (G:6.16% B:0.22%)
58.40% (G:17.12% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.247...-0.236) - [99.4%]
Duration: 54 minutes 40 seconds
2.playedRollout17/1 4/1eq: -0.253 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
41.16% (G:4.12% B:0.13%)
58.84% (G:19.04% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.259...-0.246) - [0.6%]
Duration: 44 minutes 08 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25645909
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 7/1 4/1
[ 3] 21/12


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

To win from here we need to do three things:

  • get a shot,
  • hit the blot and
  • win after we have hit the blot.

We want to make sure that we win after we hit, so weant to keep our 5 prime and abandon an anchor. The anchor to abandon has to be the 21 point anchor with 21/12, as the 20 point anchor keeps direct pressure on Neil’s 11 point. It’s true that this will give Neil five great additional numbers: 32, 22 and 21. It does however give us 61 as a new number that gives us a shot. So Neil gets a net of three good numbers. We should be willing to pay the price of three additional numbers to keep our board pure.

This will probably be close.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 64
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BBBBA------b----dBBccc-:0:0:-1:61:2:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout12/1eq: +0.342
Player:
Opponent:
61.43% (G:17.77% B:0.29%)
38.57% (G:4.42% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.336...+0.347) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout13/2eq: +0.315 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
60.92% (G:17.17% B:0.29%)
39.08% (G:4.49% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.309...+0.321) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 07 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25645909
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 2/1.

2/1 is clear as it saves a spare 2 that I might want to play without breaking my board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 63
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BBBBA------b----dBBcbd-:0:0:1:61:2:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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