USBGF OLM 2020-07-25

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 129
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBbCB----b--b-cBccAA---:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout122/18 2/1eq: -0.334
Player:
Opponent:
42.53% (G:9.20% B:0.19%)
57.47% (G:18.12% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.340...-0.328) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 06 seconds
2.playedRollout122/21 6/2eq: -0.367 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
40.59% (G:9.15% B:0.23%)
59.41% (G:15.11% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.374...-0.361) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout122/18 7/6eq: -0.389 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
40.25% (G:8.37% B:0.22%)
59.75% (G:16.02% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.396...-0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
4.Rollout122/18 4/3eq: -0.394 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
40.64% (G:8.86% B:0.19%)
59.36% (G:19.85% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.401...-0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
5.Rollout122/18 3/2eq: -0.405 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
40.23% (G:8.57% B:0.19%)
59.77% (G:19.43% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.411...-0.398) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 10 seconds
6.Rollout122/21 7/3eq: -0.415 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
38.44% (G:8.25% B:0.19%)
61.56% (G:13.60% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.422...-0.409) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
7.Rollout17/6 7/3eq: -0.452 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
38.16% (G:9.59% B:0.19%)
61.84% (G:19.70% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.458...-0.445) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 19 seconds
8.Rollout16/1eq: -0.470 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
37.96% (G:10.73% B:0.22%)
62.04% (G:23.35% B:1.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.477...-0.463) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
9.Rollout122/21 18/14eq: -0.481 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
36.15% (G:7.95% B:0.20%)
63.85% (G:11.62% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.488...-0.474) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72101720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 22/21 6/2
[ 9] 22/18 2/1
[ 1] 22/21 7/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/18 2/1

The safe play of 22/21 6/2 puts another checker behind Neil’s anchor and also creates TMP. Those two factors eliminate this play.

We need a flexible position with spares so we should play 22/18. Then the least destructive is 2/1, as we might be able to remake our board. Although Neil will have four checkers aimed at our 21 point, we will be ahead in the race by 19 pips after the roll, with a spare on our 18 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 124
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBBbBB----b--b-cBccB----:1:-1:-1:42:1:4:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/2eq: +0.308
Player:
Opponent:
57.31% (G:15.59% B:0.72%)
42.69% (G:10.44% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.302...+0.314) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout110/8 10/6eq: +0.246 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
54.52% (G:13.81% B:0.58%)
45.48% (G:8.44% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.240...+0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72101720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2.

I am behind in the race and their position is brittle, so I want to hold my structure. Therefore, I’ll play 8/2 due to lack of a better alternative.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 124
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBBbBB----b--b-bBccB-a--:1:-1:1:65:1:4:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. gary oleson says:

    anything that doesn’t put a checker on our 1 point.

  2. Barry Murphy says:

    we are ahead in the race and that 18 point anchor looks important. Neil has a blot in his board. We meet four out of five of the safe vs. bold criteria. I voted to run with 21/10.

  3. Philippe Salnave says:

    18/7 we need to keep our anchor.

  4. Eric Stippler says:

    18/7 I believe our 21 point anchor is better this turn. If he wants to skirmish at his bar point, so be it. I don’t like all the direct shot diversification we give him with this move while simultaneously abandoning our anchor.

  5. Jeff Spencer says:

    21/10 I think we break our anchor on the 21 now. Holding his bar point now is our biggest asset.

    • Chuck Bower says:

      Note that Neil (already) has four ponts blocking our 21-point compared to three blocking the 18-point. What is our gameplan if we stay on the 21-point? To die a slow death as our board crunches due to our timing advantage? To get blots hit and recirculated so that we voluntarily lose our pipcount lead?

      The 18-point isn’t a good asset when leading the race, but it’s better than the 21-point here. Neil will likely need to clear his 13-point (six away from his barpoint) to cash. I don’t think that’s the case (that he needs to clear his 10-point — six away from our 21-point) if we choose that route. He won’t even need to lead in the pipcount if our board is mush.

      Barry points out the liability of Neil’s homeboard blot. We still outboard him 4-2. This is no time to be concerned about two blots when our timing continues to be our biggest concern and Neil’s attacks come with return shots for us. I agree with:

      21/10

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