USBGF OLM 2020-03-16

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-D-aAdC---bbe-B----:0:0:1:54:6:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/9 11/6eq: -0.255
Player:
Opponent:
45.41% (G:10.71% B:0.46%)
54.59% (G:7.85% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.265...-0.246) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
2.Rollout111/7 6/1* eq: -0.290 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
44.96% (G:11.69% B:0.28%)
55.04% (G:9.32% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.300...-0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout111/6 8/4eq: -0.330 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
43.37% (G:10.35% B:0.36%)
56.63% (G:8.36% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.340...-0.321) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
4.Rollout111/2eq: -0.336 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
43.51% (G:10.12% B:0.31%)
56.49% (G:8.67% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.345...-0.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
5.Rollout113/9 6/1* eq: -0.347 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
43.13% (G:11.37% B:0.28%)
56.87% (G:9.29% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.357...-0.338) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
6.Rollout113/8 6/2eq: -0.367 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
42.86% (G:9.96% B:0.39%)
57.14% (G:9.45% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.376...-0.358) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
7.Rollout113/8 11/7eq: -0.384 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:
42.01% (G:9.58% B:0.48%)
57.99% (G:8.20% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.393...-0.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
8.Rollout113/4eq: -0.397 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
42.19% (G:9.61% B:0.33%)
57.81% (G:9.70% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.406...-0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10401836
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 13/9 11/6
[14] 11/7 6/1*
[ 6] 13/9 6/1*
[ 1] 13/9 13/8
[ 1] 13/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/9 11/6

The first thing we should do here is ask, what we would do at a Normal Match Score. After the roll we will be ahead in the race by 6 pips, so there no need to ‘mix it up’ but instead we should make the ugly play of 13/9 11/6. Be patient.

I know that Magriel’s Safe vs bold criteria suggest a Bold play here, as we have an advanced anchor and more checkers back, but we will be ahead in the race and we have more checkers back, but Neil is not guaranteed to safety his blot on our 10 point.


Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 13/9 11/6

We cannot escape nor can we establish a point. We can only hit on the ace point what does not pay off, since Neil neither has threats that require a tempo move nor do we have a board which justifies an attacking play: If Neil hits back on the ace point, it is bad for us. If he misses nothing is won. So we should just play safe.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----F-DAa-dB---bbe-B----:0:0:-1:21:6:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout17/5 6/5eq: +0.134
Player:
Opponent:
51.08% (G:8.91% B:0.37%)
48.92% (G:14.06% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.125...+0.143) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: +0.088 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
50.06% (G:8.92% B:0.39%)
49.94% (G:16.13% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.077...+0.098) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
3.Rollout115/13 6/5eq: +0.045 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
48.60% (G:8.62% B:0.34%)
51.40% (G:14.46% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.035...+0.054) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10401836
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/5 6/5.

The normal play here with these forward nine checkers is to make my 5 point. This also duplicates 3’s and takes advantage of the fact that their anchor and midpoint are stripped. At this score, I should be leaning towards plays that lead to more gammon chances, but I’d make the 5 point for money as well.



USBGF Members: 54 9/4 8/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-F-C-a-dB---badbB----:0:0:-1:31:6:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout115/11eq: +0.018
Player:
Opponent:
47.85% (G:9.74% B:0.36%)
52.15% (G:17.52% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.008...+0.028) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
2.Rollout17/3eq: -0.071 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
45.78% (G:9.15% B:0.41%)
54.22% (G:20.10% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.081...-0.061) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10401836
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/11.

15/11 looks like the play so that they must break anchor to hit me and so that I may be able to make my bar point if missed.



USBGF Members: 43 21/18*/14*
Neil Kazaross: 41 b/24


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 175
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 129
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab--B-F-C---dBA--b-dbA----:0:0:1:00:6:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. Stuart Katz says:

    I would roll quickly and instinctively ATS. This one looks speculative. It’s an easy scoop. At -11/-11 we might have a conversation.

  2. Philippe Salnave says:

    We should double. 11 checkers in the zone, a checker on the bar. good things may happen. At this score Neil has a take.

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