USBGF OLM 2020-01-29

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 64
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBC-AC------A-----cddcBa-:1:1:1:21:10:6:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout113/11 6/5eq: -1.032
Player:
Opponent:
4.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.77% (G:10.18% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.033...-1.030) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout113/10eq: -1.035 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
4.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.89% (G:10.28% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.037...-1.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout113/11 3/2eq: -1.043 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
4.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.90% (G:10.95% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.045...-1.042) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds
4.Rollout16/4 5/4eq: -1.046 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
4.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.81% (G:11.32% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.047...-1.044) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds
5.Rollout113/11 5/4eq: -1.046 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
4.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.75% (G:11.45% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.048...-1.045) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds
6.Rollout113/12 6/4eq: -1.048 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
4.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.66% (G:11.70% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.049...-1.046) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
7.Rollout16/5 6/4eq: -1.050 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
4.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.65% (G:11.93% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.052...-1.049) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19430303
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 13/11 6/5
[ 5] 6/4 5/4
[ 1] 13/10
[ 1] 6/5 3/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 6/5

We should play 6/5 with the 1 giving us a 5 point board.

Next 13/11 is the way to play the 2 as I think 3/1 creates more wastage and this could turn into a race if we roll 66 or we hit and bring our checkers home after Neil has taken some checkers off.


Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 13/11 6/5

We still can win after hitting a shot. We need the 5 point for this and playing 13/10 will probably even lose more gammons due to the risk of getting hit back.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 64
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 95
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBC-BB----A-------cddcBa-:1:1:-1:53:10:6:0:11:10
to play 53

1.Rollout15/Off 4/1eq: +1.033
Player:
Opponent:
96.10% (G:9.76% B:0.11%)
3.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.032...+1.033) - [97.1%]
Duration: 17 minutes 28 seconds
2.playedRollout15/Off 3/Offeq: +1.032 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
95.85% (G:10.10% B:0.12%)
4.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.031...+1.033) - [2.9%]
Duration: 17 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86457829
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/0 3/0.

I have a tough choice after 5/0 between 4/1 and 3/0. 4/1 caters to the possibility of them running a checker next turn, but I don’t expect them to often do that, so I will rip another checker for hopefully a bit more gammons, as I don’t yet see any blot rolls for me.



USBGF Members: 43 11/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCABB------------ccdbBa-:1:1:-1:21:10:6:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout14/1eq: +1.020
Player:
Opponent:
95.61% (G:9.46% B:0.11%)
4.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.018...+1.021) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 1/Offeq: +1.009 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
95.12% (G:9.32% B:0.15%)
4.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.008...+1.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout16/4 1/Offeq: +1.003 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
95.46% (G:8.12% B:0.14%)
4.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.002...+1.004) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds
4.Rollout16/3eq: +1.003 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
95.59% (G:7.98% B:0.10%)
4.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.002...+1.004) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86457829
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 4/1.

They still have a 5 point board so I will play the safe 4/1 which also will allow me to attack on the 2 point with some rolls if they break it with their next play.



USBGF Members: 54 23/14
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 42
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCABB-------A----bbcbAb-:1:1:1:64:10:6:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 2/7 800a Eastern time.

Comments

  1. Philippe Salnave says:

    14/4 makes the 4 point.

  2. Larry Brown Larry Brown says:

    14/4.

  3. gary oleson says:

    we need to hit a shot now, need to contain the checker, once we start taking our board apart, our winning chances evaporate. covering the 4 is logical.

  4. Ed Rozmiarek says:

    14/4 – seems like a no-brainer. Closes out our board, and now we hope for a hit, or a lucky big double.

  5. Phil Lerman says:

    14/4 — too soon to panic and run; and closing our board (and hoping for a hit) is too tempting to ignore. Unless i’m missing something (which I usually am), we only get an immediate hit on Neil’s 64, and only hit that a third of the time (a third of two shots, so 1/36 of the time). So not great — but the best chance we have of a quick win. And maybe there’s a combination that gives us a hit in another roll or two, if we’re still there.

    The alternative — saving a 6 with 14/8 6/2 — leaves us in such a mess that even a hit won’t help (and could lead to further disaster). So let’s take our tiny chance now, then cut and run and avoid the gammon in a roll or two.

  6. Eric Stippler says:

    14/4 I know Jason doesn’t like comments about ‘automatic’ moves, but this is close to that. Two crossovers and a closed board result. We haven’t much of a shot at a hit, but it could happen or we could roll BIG next turn and this positions us the best to race. I also believe that this reduces the gammon percentage for NK to single digits.

    • Mary Hickey says:

      I agree with this play. The gammon danger isn’t that big with his having only four men off so far. Who knows, maybe the dice will get stuck on this roll and then we have a shot right away 😁

    • Online Match Editor says:

      I agree this is pretty close to automatic. One thing I’ll note: we RARELY have unanimous votes in the OLM, and this is no exception. Not every vote I’ve received has been for 14/4.

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