USBGF OLM 2019-10-25

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CB-BcCB-B-----A-c-bdb--:1:-1:1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout117/11 8/6eq: +0.493
Player:
Opponent:
73.75% (G:10.03% B:0.21%)
26.25% (G:1.61% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.489...+0.498) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 48 seconds
2.playedRollout117/9eq: +0.462 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
73.30% (G:7.76% B:0.17%)
26.70% (G:1.66% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.457...+0.466) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 17/9
[ 5] 17/11 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 17/11 8/6

I really like playing 17/11 then 8/6. 8/6 means we put Neil on the bar with 52 and 44 puts Neil on the bar without leaving a blot.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 17/9

This is what I would have played over the board for the following reasons:

It leaves no shot. We avoid three checkers on the highest because we want to clear it first. Stripping the highest point doesn’t cost much. After both safe plays we have two builders for the 5 point. Of course we would like to have a spare on the 6 point in order to have two builders for the ace point to, but when we cannot move the checker from the 11 point next roll we will be in trouble soon.

The better play according to XG is 17/11 8/6. Checking with XG´s dice distribution tool brings 13 good (green) rolls for my play and only nine good rolls for the better play. But seven of the good rolls work so well that even the fact that the better play has 3.6% more anti jokers still does not matter.

At XG++, 17/11 8/6 is even better when Neil holds the 5 point.

At this time I do not know how to get this right over the board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 102
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CB-BcCC-B-------c-bdb--:1:-1:-1:64:2:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout118/8eq: -0.416
Player:
Opponent:
28.10% (G:1.61% B:0.02%)
71.90% (G:6.68% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.420...-0.411) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 6/2eq: -0.450 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
24.15% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
75.85% (G:0.71% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.454...-0.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 21 seconds
3.Rollout118/12 6/2eq: -0.455 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
27.35% (G:1.89% B:0.03%)
72.65% (G:8.91% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.460...-0.451) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/8.

I’ll go 18/8, trying to win the game while risking some more gammon losses as their structure is somewhat awkward.



USBGF Members: 43 9/5 8/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 95
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CBBBbBB-B-----a-c-bdb--:1:-1:-1:43:2:4:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout18/1eq: -0.686
Player:
Opponent:
21.51% (G:2.34% B:0.04%)
78.49% (G:17.72% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.690...-0.682) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 6/2eq: -0.744 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
20.71% (G:2.53% B:0.05%)
79.29% (G:21.01% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.748...-0.740) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout18/4 6/3eq: -0.749 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
19.70% (G:1.79% B:0.01%)
80.30% (G:19.40% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.754...-0.745) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/1.

This exchange of 43’s has left me a big underdog. Best now must be 8/1 trying to make a 5 point board and hoping for a 6 to escape.



USBGF Members: 54 9/5 9/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CCCBbB--B-------c-bdba-:1:-1:-1:21:2:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout13/2 3/1eq: -0.757
Player:
Opponent:
18.21% (G:1.47% B:0.02%)
81.79% (G:17.17% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.760...-0.753) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout16/5 3/1eq: -0.777 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
17.98% (G:1.26% B:0.01%)
82.02% (G:18.20% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.781...-0.773) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83705238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 3/2 3/1.

3/1 makes a 5 point board, and since I don’t see how I benefit from a slot I can’t cover, my ace is 3/2.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 100
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CCCBbB--B-------c-bbcb-:1:-1:1:44:2:4:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. gary oleson says:

    no shots is good shots, we may still leave a shot, but not willingly.

  2. Joshua Riddell says:

    8/4(2) 6/2(2). Neil is breaking and now we have a monster racing lead. No need to leave a direct or indirect shot IMO.

  3. Chuck Bower says:

    Can’t see a reason to leave any blots here. Note that Neil can’t hold his current position for long.

    4(2) 2(2)

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