USBGF OLM 2019-10-18

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 138
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-bBbD-aB--AA-aabbCbb--:0:0:1:65:2:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout115/9 14/9eq: -0.047
Player:
Opponent:
48.09% (G:10.34% B:0.40%)
51.91% (G:12.64% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.057...-0.036) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
2.Rollout121/10* eq: -0.142 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
47.24% (G:10.82% B:0.52%)
52.76% (G:22.07% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.153...-0.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78653918
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 15/9 14/9
[17] 21/10*
[ 2] 15/10* 14/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 15/9 14/9

Lots of blots but Neil has two more inner board points than us. This means we should not be getting into a blot hitting contest.

We are behind in the race so we should be priming/blocking so let’s make another blocking point and let Neil try to tidy up his blots if he can.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 15/9 14/9

Any hitting play is too dangerous due to Neil’s strong board and does not pay off due to Neil’s anchors and our weak board. The blocking point is best choice.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 138
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-bBbDBaB-----aabbCbb--:0:0:-1:42:2:4:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/6 7/3eq: -0.022
Player:
Opponent:
49.82% (G:13.01% B:0.41%)
50.18% (G:10.16% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.032...-0.012) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
2.Rollout115/11 8/6eq: -0.089 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
48.03% (G:11.51% B:0.33%)
51.97% (G:9.55% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.099...-0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78653918
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/6 7/3.

There’s tons of remaining contact so I should try to keep pieces in play. This means 15/11 8/6 is a strong consideration. But what does that play accomplish other than to leave 15 shots?

So I look at a safer play: 8/6 7/3. This doesn’t leave many shots since I think the only roll they want to hit me with are 11 and 65. I still lead in the race so this is a factor. I also may want to make my 15 point so my anchors aren’t so hemmed in. This clinches it for me and lifting my two blots is now clear.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-bBbDBaB-------cbCcb--:0:0:1:52:2:4:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. Eric Stippler says:

    My first gut call was the diversifying 21/16 8/6 but several moments reflection turned me to the weenie play 8/3 8/6. As it has been observed, sometimes that approach is best. Giving Neil 17 directs and 19 total shots with a superior board doesn’t seem like good backgammon. The alternative of breaking our best contain point 11/9 11/6 also sticks in my craw. I decided to activate BOTH builders on the 8 and wait for him to approach. He HAS to come. He has five checkers on our side of the board with the 10 remaining ALREADY in his inner board!

  2. gary oleson says:

    gotta put a spare on the 6 point, and since we’re low on resources 21/16.

  3. Joshua Riddell says:

    11/9 11/6. I think getting hit against that board is really bad.

    • Jeff Spencer says:

      Getting stuck back while he increases his control of the outfield is really bad too. If we don’t step out now and try to establish a controlling point, it’s only going to be worse later.

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