USBGF OLM 2019-01-23

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 63
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--Aa-CD-BBC-a-------a-dce-:1:1:1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout19/3* 6/3eq: +0.542
Player:
Opponent:
73.68% (G:11.48% B:0.56%)
26.32% (G:3.11% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.539...+0.546) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/3* eq: +0.466 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
71.37% (G:11.87% B:0.61%)
28.63% (G:5.26% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.462...+0.469) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] 9/3* 6/3
[ 2] 10/1
[ 1] 8/2 6/3*
[ 1] 10/4 5/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/3* 6/3

We are behind in the race by 42 pips before the roll. Our game plan cannot be racing. We need to attack and make an inner board point with 9/3* 6/3. After that we will have a 4th point slotted and 3 builders aimed at it. Neil also has an inner board blot that will still be there after Neil hits with 21, 52 and 62. Even if after we are hit, and we come in without hitting, Neil will have to get 2 checkers past us.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-AB-CC-BAC-a-------a-dce-:1:1:-1:54:8:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/16* eq: -0.228
Player:
Opponent:
42.88% (G:2.88% B:0.01%)
57.12% (G:18.15% B:1.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.231...-0.224) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: -0.669 (-0.441)
Player:
Opponent:
20.35% (G:2.48% B:0.01%)
79.65% (G:8.25% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.672...-0.666) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16*.

I am delighted to be able to hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 57
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-CC-BaC-a-------a-dceA:1:1:1:62:8:0:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. Eric Stippler says:

    Correction… I voted 10/8 then wrote 8/6 in my comments.

  2. Jeff Spencer says:

    I agree with Stephen and Mary. I don’t think we’ll be able to win without making the 4 point, so let’s slot it now.

  3. Thomas Rebelo Thomas Rebelo says:

    I prefer 10/8 for the reason that it gives us a good cover on the deuce point and we may have to use all the rolls to hit our next shot and we don’t want to have two blots in house after that.

  4. Joshua Riddell says:

    I voted Bar/19 10/8 so that if we do hit a shot, we don’t have two blots to clean up.

  5. Eric Stippler says:

    8/6… too many blots with 6/4 and it doesn’t advance an outside man… not worried about losing gammon, but sometimes 2 pips can make a difference late.

  6. Stephen Trundy says:

    I like 6/4 with the deuce. Seems like the other deuces don’t give us anything we don’t already have. I suppose 8/6 would save the most gammons. I’d rather put the checker where it wants to go.

    • Mary Hickey says:

      I like 6/4 with the deuce also. Anything else seems too “slow”. I also don’t see any need to go into panicked gammon-save mode yet. Let’s keep on trying to win!

    • Neil Kazaross says:

      I think 8/6 loses more G’s since it breaks the 8 pt which is useful to contain me if you can hit. I’ll go on record and state that excessive concern over losing very improbable G’s when you have good chances to win by hitting and need a good board has chucked away far more points than those saved by trying to play to reduce G’s lost by a very small percentage.

  7. Phil Franklin says:

    I play the two so we can cover the 2 point from the 8 point without breaking the 8 point.

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