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is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 170 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 71 score: 0 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-BBBbG--bA--c--Aab-e------:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 41 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 15/14 9/5 | eq: +0.434 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 9/5 2/1 | eq: +0.358 (-0.076) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 9/5 3/2 | eq: +0.349 (-0.085) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 25268299 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

`USBGF Members vote:`

[30] **15/14 9/5**

[ 7] 9/5 3/2

[ 3] 9/5 2/1

[ 1] 15/14 3/2

teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email. |

**Grant Hoffman recommends: 15/14 9/5**

When we are hugely ahead in the race (104 pips after the roll here) I like to minimize the blot count. That means we want to only have one blot not two, so 9/5 is a must. Then the only sensible 1 is 15/14.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 170 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 66 score: 0 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-BBBbH--b---c-A-ab-e------:1:-1:-1:43:0:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 43 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 9/5 8/5 | eq: -0.891 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 13/9 6/3 | eq: -0.922 (-0.032) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 13/10 9/5 | eq: -0.933 (-0.042) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 25268299 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 9/5 8/5.**

I’d consider 21/18 13/9 if I couldn’t lose a gammon but here I just have to make my 5 point.

USBGF Members: 61 14/7

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 163 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 59 score: 0 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-BBBbH-Ab---c----a-eb-----:1:-1:-1:51:0:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 51 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 17/16 13/8 | eq: -1.651 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 17/12 13/12 | eq: -1.652 (-0.001) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 13/12 13/8 | eq: -1.652 (-0.001) | |||

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4. | Rollout^{1} | 17/16 17/12 | eq: -1.653 (-0.002) | |||

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5. | Rollout^{2} | 17/12 8/7 | eq: -1.654 (-0.003) | |||

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6. | Rollout^{2} | 13/7 | eq: -1.655 (-0.004) | |||

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7. | Rollout^{2} | 17/11 | eq: -1.657 (-0.006) | |||

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8. | Rollout^{2} | 17/12 6/5 | eq: -1.662 (-0.011) | |||

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9. | Rollout^{2} | 13/8 6/5 | eq: -1.663 (-0.012) | |||

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^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 25268299 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 25268299 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 17/12 13/12.**

It is all about gammon save now since I am unlikely to ever hit anything and possibly then win. I’ll likely need 6’s to accomplish this unlikely save so I’ll go with 17/12 13/12.

USBGF Members: 55 7/2 5/0(3)

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 157 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 39 score: 0 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-BCBbE--a---bb---a-eb-----:1:-1:-1:32:0:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 32 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 17/14 6/4 | eq: -1.840 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 13/10 6/4 | eq: -1.841 (-0.001) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 12/9 6/4 | eq: -1.842 (-0.002) | |||

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4. | Rollout^{2} | 13/8 | eq: -1.845 (-0.005) | |||

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5. | Rollout^{2} | 17/14 13/11 | eq: -1.845 (-0.005) | |||

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6. | Rollout^{3} | 8/5 6/4 | eq: -1.845 (-0.005) | |||

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7. | Rollout^{2} | 17/14 12/10 | eq: -1.845 (-0.005) | |||

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8. | Rollout^{2} | 17/15 13/10 | eq: -1.846 (-0.005) | |||

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9. | Rollout^{2} | 13/10 12/10 | eq: -1.846 (-0.006) | |||

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10. | Rollout^{2} | 6/4 6/3 | eq: -1.846 (-0.006) | |||

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11. | Rollout^{2} | 12/10 12/9 | eq: -1.849 (-0.008) | |||

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12. | Rollout^{2} | 13/11 13/10 | eq: -1.849 (-0.009) | |||

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13. | Rollout^{2} | 13/11 12/9 | eq: -1.849 (-0.009) | |||

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14. | Rollout^{2} | 17/15 12/9 | eq: -1.849 (-0.009) | |||

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15. | Rollout^{2} | 17/12 | eq: -1.850 (-0.009) | |||

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16. | Rollout^{2} | 17/15 6/3 | eq: -1.850 (-0.010) | |||

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17. | Rollout^{2} | 17/15 8/5 | eq: -1.851 (-0.011) | |||

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18. | Rollout^{2} | 13/11 8/5 | eq: -1.851 (-0.011) | |||

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19. | Rollout^{2} | 12/7 | eq: -1.851 (-0.011) | |||

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20. | Rollout^{2} | 12/10 8/5 | eq: -1.851 (-0.011) | |||

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21. | Rollout^{2} | 17/14 8/6 | eq: -1.851 (-0.011) | |||

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22. | Rollout^{2} | 13/10 8/6 | eq: -1.852 (-0.011) | |||

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23. | Rollout^{2} | 13/11 6/3 | eq: -1.853 (-0.012) | |||

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24. | Rollout^{2} | 12/9 8/6 | eq: -1.853 (-0.013) | |||

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25. | Rollout^{2} | 21/18 6/4 | eq: -1.861 (-0.020) | |||

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^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 25268299 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 25268299 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{3} 2078 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 25268299 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 6/4.**

Now the gammon save is almost hopeless unless I can hit a hopefully upcoming blot on their 5 point. If I play 6/4, I am more likely to be able to contain what I can hit and then 13/10 makes a cross over and adds a builder. Slight wastage for the gammon save from 6/4 hardly matters since I may need a checker on my 4 point for some last roll save anyhow. If the gammon save by running was a reasonable possibility, I’d make two cross overs from my mid point. Once you are over 100 pips behind you don’t rate to save many gammons without hitting.

USBGF Members: 63 5/0 3/0

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 152 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 31 score: 0 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-BCAbD--a---ab-a-a-dba----:1:-1:-1:43:0:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 43 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 8/4 6/3 | eq: -1.915 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 12/8 10/7 | eq: -1.915 (0.000) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 21/18 12/8 | eq: -1.915 (0.000) | |||

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4. | Rollout^{1} | 21/18 13/9 | eq: -1.916 (-0.001) | |||

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5. | Rollout^{1} | 21/14 | eq: -1.916 (-0.001) | |||

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6. | Rollout^{1} | 17/14 12/8 | eq: -1.916 (-0.001) | |||

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7. | Rollout^{2} | 13/10 12/8 | eq: -1.916 (-0.001) | |||

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8. | Rollout^{2} | 17/14 13/9 | eq: -1.916 (-0.001) | |||

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9. | Rollout^{2} | 21/17 10/7 | eq: -1.916 (-0.001) | |||

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10. | Rollout^{2} | 10/7 8/4 | eq: -1.916 (-0.002) | |||

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11. | Rollout^{2} | 21/18 17/13 | eq: -1.916 (-0.002) | |||

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12. | Rollout^{2} | 21/18 8/4 | eq: -1.917 (-0.002) | |||

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13. | Rollout^{2} | 13/9 12/9 | eq: -1.917 (-0.002) | |||

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14. | Rollout^{2} | 17/13 12/9 | eq: -1.917 (-0.002) | |||

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15. | Rollout^{2} | 17/10 | eq: -1.917 (-0.002) | |||

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16. | Rollout^{2} | 12/9 8/4 | eq: -1.917 (-0.002) | |||

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17. | Rollout^{2} | 17/14 8/4 | eq: -1.917 (-0.002) | |||

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18. | Rollout^{2} | 12/9 12/8 | eq: -1.917 (-0.003) | |||

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19. | Rollout^{2} | 17/13 8/5 | eq: -1.918 (-0.003) | |||

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20. | Rollout^{2} | 21/17 13/10 | eq: -1.918 (-0.003) | |||

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21. | Rollout^{2} | 12/8 6/3 | eq: -1.918 (-0.003) | |||

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22. | Rollout^{2} | 17/14 10/6 | eq: -1.918 (-0.003) | |||

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23. | Rollout^{2} | 13/9 8/5 | eq: -1.918 (-0.003) | |||

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24. | Rollout^{2} | 10/3 | eq: -1.918 (-0.003) | |||

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25. | Rollout^{2} | 13/10 8/4 | eq: -1.918 (-0.003) | |||

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26. | Rollout^{2} | 21/17 8/5 | eq: -1.919 (-0.004) | |||

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27. | Rollout^{2} | 21/18 10/6 | eq: -1.919 (-0.004) | |||

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28. | Rollout^{2} | 13/6 | eq: -1.920 (-0.005) | |||

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29. | Rollout^{2} | 10/6 8/5 | eq: -1.921 (-0.006) | |||

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30. | Rollout^{2} | 8/4 5/2 | eq: -1.927 (-0.012) | |||

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31. | Rollout^{2} | 6/2 5/2 | eq: -1.927 (-0.013) | |||

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^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 25268299 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 25268299 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 13/6.**

A shot is even less likely now, so I will play 13/6 which wastes no pips.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 145 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 31 score: 0 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-BCAbD--a----b-a-a-eba----:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 31 |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

3/0 1/0, hoping that by the time he has something to hit it can only save. Doubles play better and as DK states it is safer. Merry Christmas everyone!

3-off, 1-off. not only the most gammons, but safest, too.