USBGF OLM 2018-09-12

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-BBBB-----bF---dbe----A-:0:0:1:00:2:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 76.47% (G:35.31% B:1.52%) 76.39% (G:36.56% B:1.40%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 23.53% (G:4.24% B:0.18%) 23.61% (G:4.49% B:0.18%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.834 +1.809
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+1.096±0.007 (+1.090..+1.103)
     Double/Take:+1.726 (+0.630)±0.011 (+1.715..+1.738)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.096)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 13.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] Double
[15] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

I always try to think of what I would do in a doubling position for money, then adjust for the match score. In New Zealand, we do not use the Jacoby rule, so it is even easier to adjust as we have to consider if we are Too Good to Double.

Here we have a four point board, we have escaped one checker and our opponent has a checker on the bar. Neil has a three prime and a stripped mid-point. For money I think we are Too Good to Double.

At 9 away 5 away, I still think we are Too Good to Double, but we should double if we thought that our opponent would mistakenly take. This is dependent on the opponent, but here I do not think a player of Neil’s ability would take this, so we have to hold on to the cube.


Neil Kazaross passes.

I pass thinking that they were too good to double here. Note that many of my entering rolls expose a new blot.


USBGF Members win one point, and Neil Kazaross leads 5-away/8-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:3:6:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. Karl Duzell says:

    Splitting seems best. No need to panic.

  2. gary oleson says:

    Slotting takes checkers off of stacks, threatening to make our 5 point.

  3. Philippe Salnave says:

    Down and split — a standard opening roll.

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