USBGF OLM 2018-06-25

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 31
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--C-CB---B------abdcBA:1:1:1:54:6:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/20* 20/16eq: +0.163
Player:
Opponent:
53.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.81% (G:28.81% B:14.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.151...+0.176) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20* 13/9eq: +0.067 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
51.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.89% (G:30.26% B:15.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.056...+0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20* 8/4eq: +0.058 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
51.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.80% (G:31.25% B:18.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.045...+0.070) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/20*/16
[ 5] b/20* 13/9
[ 2] b/20* 24/20


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20*/16

We want to keep the anchor and moving 20/16 gives us a double shot if Neil rolls 65 or 64 from the bar, so Bar/20*/16 is my play.



Neil Kazaross: 54 b/20


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-aC-CB---B--A----bdcB-:1:1:1:42:6:7:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. Philippe Salnave says:

    Making the 4 point is our best chance of winning the game. Neil has the killer rolls of 66 and 55 and 65 hits. His 62 leaves an extra blot and 64 and 63 leaves us a direct shot. We could play 9/5*/3 but it is very passive. Also his 54 leaves us a direct shot. So making the 4 point is my play.

  2. Ray Bills says:

    I may be wrong, but I like 24/18 because it creates a couple of nightmare rolls for Neil: 53 and 43. In addition, the extra coverage in the outfield is a big plus *and* we are not wasting any pips with regard to getting off of the G. I would like to have the 4 point too, but I think sequence is important here and we need coverage first, then inner board points later.

  3. Treena Bouque says:

    I agree with Mary!

  4. gary oleson says:

    75% he can run, *5 16/14, we’re a ways off from avoiding the gammon, contact favors us. maybe he’ll be four two itous

  5. Mary Hickey says:

    Make the 4 point! Good for the long term, where we not only hit the checker again, but also contain it and go from getting gammoned to winning the game.

    • Larry Brown Larry Brown says:

      I agree. In addition 25% of the time he can’t run, and on a roll of 8 or less we get two shots. We have a lot of work to do to win this game and making the 4 point seems best. If we hit way to many problems. More than 1/3 of the time he hits us and on 25% of those we dance. What if he hits us twice?

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