USBGF OLM 2018-06-24

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB--D-CB--aB-a--abbbbbAA:1:1:1:41:6:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 6/2* eq: -0.754
Player:
Opponent:
25.40% (G:4.67% B:0.62%)
74.60% (G:31.44% B:13.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.763...-0.746) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 8/4eq: -0.798 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
25.08% (G:3.57% B:0.33%)
74.92% (G:32.84% B:14.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.806...-0.790) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24 13/9eq: -0.833 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
20.86% (G:3.18% B:0.26%)
79.14% (G:26.77% B:8.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.840...-0.826) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] b/24 6/2*
[ 7] b/24 13/9



Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23* 13/7
USBGF Members: 42 no play
Neil Kazaross: 11 10/6
USBGF Members: 52 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 107
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB--C-CB---B----bcbbbbBA:1:1:-1:21:6:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout123/20eq: +0.950
Player:
Opponent:
76.50% (G:39.00% B:18.43%)
23.50% (G:1.48% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.941...+0.958) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout124/21eq: +0.892 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
74.90% (G:38.84% B:18.90%)
25.10% (G:2.02% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.883...+0.900) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.Rollout123/21 6/5eq: +0.869 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
74.30% (G:38.23% B:18.59%)
25.70% (G:2.09% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.861...+0.877) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/20.

23/20 looks best to me so that I don’t have to shatter catastrophically with 44 next turn.



USBGF Members: 52 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B-aC-CB---B----bcbbbbBA:1:1:-1:64:6:7:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/14eq: +1.038
Player:
Opponent:
78.11% (G:41.12% B:18.15%)
21.89% (G:0.69% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.030...+1.046) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout120/10eq: +0.975 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
75.98% (G:41.60% B:19.66%)
24.02% (G:0.93% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.967...+0.983) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/14.

Here I just want to run towards home and minimize chances for accidents.



USBGF Members: 22 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-aC-CB-a-B----bcbbbbBA:1:1:-1:55:6:7:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout120/5 14/9eq: +1.159
Player:
Opponent:
77.30% (G:49.55% B:28.31%)
22.70% (G:0.13% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.156...+1.162) - [99.2%]
Duration: 7 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout120/10 14/4eq: +1.153 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
77.22% (G:49.40% B:28.31%)
22.78% (G:0.15% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.150...+1.157) - [0.8%]
Duration: 7 hours 15 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/5 14/9.

I don’t see much difference between leaving my spares on the 10 and 4 points or 9 and 5 points but 9 and 5 looks a bit more natural to me.



USBGF Members: 33 no play
Neil Kazaross: 66 9/3
USBGF Members: 43 no play
Neil Kazaross: 42 7/5 7/3
USBGF Members: 53 no play
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/9
USBGF Members: 64 no play
Neil Kazaross: 54 6/2 5/0
USBGF Members: 54 no play
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 31
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--C-CB---B------abdcBA:1:1:1:54:6:7:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. Philippe Salnave says:

    I come out to the outfield in case he comes out so I will have a double shot.

    • Stephen Trundy says:

      Agreed his 45, 36, 46 and 56 are alll forced out and I don’t really want to get hit with the 55. Important play to get right I think.

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