USBGF OLM 2018-04-07

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 186
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--Ba--C-C---cB--cb-d-Bb-C-:1:1:1:61:2:1:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout124/18 6/5eq: -0.346
Player:
Opponent:
36.98% (G:6.68% B:0.25%)
63.02% (G:25.61% B:2.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.354...-0.339) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 8/7eq: -0.369 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
36.43% (G:6.33% B:0.24%)
63.57% (G:25.52% B:2.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.377...-0.361) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 24/18eq: -0.402 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
34.88% (G:7.16% B:0.32%)
65.12% (G:26.91% B:1.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.410...-0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
4.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: -0.420 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
34.34% (G:6.30% B:0.23%)
65.66% (G:25.33% B:2.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.428...-0.412) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/18 6/5
[11] 24/18 24/23
[ 9] 13/7 8/7
[ 3] 24/18 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 6/5

We need to keep our midpoint, so we should play 24/18. The question then is how to play the 1. Over the board, I would play purely and try to build my board as quickly as possible with 6/5. If I am hit, my timing will improve and I may be able to upgrade my back anchor to another one.


Steve Sax recommends: 24/18 6/5

The six seems clear to me. The USBGF Members have two anchors in Neil’s board but the third checker on the 24 point isn’t doing us any favors.

Moving out to the 18 point gives us the opportunity to either escape that checker for home board development, making the 18 point, or getting hit and improving our timing. All are acceptable results.

As far as the ace is concerned, I slightly favor slotting the five point duplicating two’s although 8/7 does give us a slightly better checker distribution for development.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 179
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--Ba-AB-C---cB--cbAd-Bb-B-:1:1:-1:21:2:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout122/20* 8/7* eq: +0.403
Player:
Opponent:
62.45% (G:30.82% B:3.27%)
37.55% (G:5.75% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.394...+0.412) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
2.Rollout122/20* 9/8eq: +0.355 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
62.24% (G:27.49% B:2.50%)
37.76% (G:6.33% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.346...+0.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout19/7* 8/7eq: +0.341 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
62.68% (G:25.89% B:2.46%)
37.32% (G:7.56% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.332...+0.350) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
4.Rollout122/20* 6/5eq: +0.333 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
62.60% (G:25.05% B:2.10%)
37.40% (G:7.11% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.324...+0.341) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/20* 8/7*.

The routine play is to hit the checkers off of points my opponent would like to make, so that means 22/20* 8/7*. I am a bit concerned about breaking up my forward structure, but only a 44 joker from the roof hits back.

These checkers should be able to serve as builders for me to make my 5 point and then hopefully 2 point, pinning the USBGF Members into a 41 backgame while they have 6 checkers back and their 2 point made. Their 2 point is not good at all for an early backgame.



USBGF Members: 61 b/24
Neil Kazaross: 21 7/5 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 128
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 205
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--aB-C---cB--ca-cbBb-CA:1:1:1:26:2:1:0:11:10
to play 26

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. mick dyett says:

    Backgames cost too much and there is another option to move forward, i will leave the back game as a last line of defence. bar-17*.

  2. Mary Hickey says:

    I’m not crazy about this backgame, but we aren’t set up well to continue well after hitting. So I voted for b/23 24/18, hoping to shift into the slightly better 2+4 backgame, and if that doesn’t happen, playing our 1+4 which this play doesn’t give up.

  3. Treena Bouque says:

    You must relish a backgame, bar/17*.

  4. Jeff Spencer says:

    I hate this back game. Maybe we can develop something else by hitting b/17*

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