USBGF OLM 2017-03-29

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:69.99% (G:1.50% B:0.02%)70.30% (G:1.47% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:30.01% (G:0.67% B:0.01%)29.70% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.409+0.842
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.673 (-0.003)±0.003 (+0.670..+0.676)
xg Double/Take:+0.676±0.004 (+0.672..+0.680)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.324)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85172974
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:85.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 hours 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] No Double
[11] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

I don’t quite see a cube for us here. This is exactly the kind of cube Neil wants at the score, an easy one with about as little gammon-juice as you can find in a contact position, and with the race quite close if we don’t hit him. I think we can risk a few market losers in order to send a cube later on that we can hope won’t be what Neil calls a “huge, honking take”. This one’s honking like an 18-wheeler on black ice! Next turn, maybe not so much.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:42:3:5:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Comments

  1. David Kettler says:

    I went with the crowd here, 7-3, 4-2. It’s tempting to just hurry in and risk fewer shots by clearing the 10, but I’m not that confident about the race, blocking his double 5’s is good, I think it is likely that he will burn more wasted pips than we will, and I’m not very worried about clearing down the road. I won’t be too surprised if we’re wrong though.

  2. Igor Erovenko says:

    I think our race lead is not big enough to justify clearing the 10pt.

  3. Thomas Rebelo Thomas Rebelo says:

    Blocks dbl 5 as well

  4. Karl Sours Karl Sours says:

    Neil has a 5 pt board while we have a 2 pt board. Make the pt and get ready for another or a quit hit. 7/3 4/2

  5. Stephen Trundy says:

    7/3, 4/2 most likely outcome (since we missed) is a race. Need good bear-off structure balanced with good structure for a later possible hit…which is same here. I say build it quick with no more than a single blot.

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