USBGF OLM 2018-12-22

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 174
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-CA--eC---c-d-a-AAA:0:0:1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 9/4* eq: -0.243
Player:
Opponent:
46.46% (G:14.11% B:0.71%)
53.54% (G:15.79% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.256...-0.231) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 9/8eq: -0.294 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
44.81% (G:11.77% B:0.55%)
55.19% (G:14.64% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.306...-0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 23/22eq: -0.385 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
43.10% (G:11.39% B:0.70%)
56.90% (G:16.96% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.397...-0.374) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] b/24 9/4*
[ 3] b/20 9/8
[ 1] b/20 23/22


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 9/4*

As Neil said “it is really important to fight for key points” – therefore we want to use the 5 to play 9/4* so the 1 has to be played Bar/24.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 166
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--A-E-C---eC---c-d-a-AB-:0:0:-1:43:4:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout1Bar/21* 24/21eq: +0.333
Player:
Opponent:
55.44% (G:15.42% B:0.81%)
44.56% (G:10.84% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.321...+0.345) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 58 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21* 13/10eq: +0.271 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
53.95% (G:16.60% B:0.97%)
46.05% (G:12.94% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.258...+0.285) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 8/4eq: +0.266 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
53.98% (G:16.64% B:1.07%)
46.02% (G:14.29% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.254...+0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21* 24/21.

An anchor on the 21 point is a nice thing to have as it cuts down on my gammon losses and isn’t easy to seriously block. Therefore I prefer making it and note that sometimes my blot in my board will be missed again.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 189
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-E-C---eC---c-d-a-ABA:0:0:1:21:4:0:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:4:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout124/20 13/10eq: -0.093
Player:
Opponent:
49.79% (G:14.28% B:0.81%)
50.21% (G:13.64% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.098...-0.088) - [65.9%]
Duration: 18 hours 12 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 13/9eq: -0.095 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
49.77% (G:14.63% B:0.89%)
50.23% (G:13.87% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.101...-0.090) - [20.2%]
Duration: 18 hours 04 minutes
3.xgRollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.096 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
49.62% (G:16.06% B:1.03%)
50.38% (G:14.20% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.101...-0.091) - [13.9%]
Duration: 17 hours 51 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 24/21 13/9
[ 9] 13/10 13/9
[ 8] 24/20 13/10


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20 13/10

Here we can toss a coin between the top 3 plays. We can either bring two down from the midpoint or split 24/20 13/10 or 24/21 13/9. I have always liked 24/20 13/10. If this were a doubles contest, then I would not object to any of the above 3 plays.

Technically it is correct by milli points to play 13/10 13/9 which does not alter when our opponent is 11 away until we are 5 away.



Neil Kazaross: 62 24/16*
USBGF Members: 42 b/23 13/9*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 168
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 170
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----E-CA--eC---c-e-A-AA-:0:0:-1:42:4:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 6/4* eq: +0.107
Player:
Opponent:
50.98% (G:13.61% B:0.76%)
49.02% (G:15.97% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.095...+0.119) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/4* eq: +0.013 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
48.55% (G:13.55% B:0.66%)
51.45% (G:16.78% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (0.000...+0.025) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 13/11eq: +0.009 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
48.68% (G:12.46% B:0.63%)
51.32% (G:16.10% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.003...+0.020) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 6/4*.

In the opening when no one has made anything, it is really important to fight for key points. With that in mind, b/21 6/4* is clear.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 174
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-CA--eC---c-d-a-AAA:0:0:1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 31
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCAbD--a----b-a-a-eba----:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout13/Off 1/Offeq: +1.893
Player:
Opponent:
97.10% (G:91.63% B:0.59%)
2.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.891...+1.895) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout13/Off 2/1eq: +1.879 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
97.14% (G:90.42% B:0.36%)
2.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.878...+1.881) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 3/0 1/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 27
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AC-bD--a----b-a-a-eba----:1:-1:-1:41:0:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout121/17 6/5eq: -1.904
Player:
Opponent:
3.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.99% (G:92.90% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.904...-1.903) - [89.8%]
Duration: 32 minutes 09 seconds
2.playedRollout121/16eq: -1.905 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
2.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.08% (G:92.81% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.906...-1.903) - [7.2%]
Duration: 32 minutes 52 seconds
3.Rollout117/13 6/5eq: -1.905 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.90% (G:92.73% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.906...-1.904) - [1.1%]
Duration: 32 minutes 34 seconds
4.Rollout112/8 6/5eq: -1.905 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.89% (G:92.85% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.906...-1.904) - [1.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 47 seconds
5.Rollout121/17 10/9eq: -1.906 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.07% (G:92.93% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.907...-1.905) - [0.1%]
Duration: 28 minutes 39 seconds
6.Rollout121/17 12/11eq: -1.906 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.08% (G:92.94% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.907...-1.905) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 41 seconds
7.Rollout221/17 8/7eq: -1.906 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.06% (G:93.05% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.908...-1.905) - [0.3%]
Duration: 7 minutes 34 seconds
8.Rollout121/17 5/4eq: -1.907 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.10% (G:92.95% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.907...-1.906) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 00 second
9.Rollout212/8 10/9eq: -1.907 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
3.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.93% (G:92.93% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.910...-1.905) - [0.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds
10.Rollout221/17 4/3eq: -1.907 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
2.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.07% (G:93.10% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.910...-1.905) - [0.2%]
Duration: 7 minutes 06 seconds
11.Rollout28/4 6/5eq: -1.908 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
2.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.01% (G:92.79% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.910...-1.906) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 28 seconds
12.Rollout217/13 5/4eq: -1.909 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
2.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.01% (G:92.81% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.911...-1.907) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds
13.Rollout212/8 5/4eq: -1.909 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
3.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.00% (G:92.92% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.911...-1.907) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 55 seconds
14.Rollout217/13 12/11eq: -1.909 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
2.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.03% (G:92.74% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.911...-1.907) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 09 seconds
15.Rollout210/9 8/4eq: -1.909 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
3.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.99% (G:92.90% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.911...-1.907) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 35 seconds
16.Rollout217/13 8/7eq: -1.909 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
3.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.99% (G:92.91% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.911...-1.907) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 11 seconds
17.Rollout217/13 10/9eq: -1.909 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
3.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.95% (G:92.88% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.911...-1.907) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds
18.Rollout212/7eq: -1.909 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
3.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.94% (G:92.86% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.911...-1.907) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 09 seconds
19.Rollout212/11 12/8eq: -1.909 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
2.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.06% (G:92.97% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.911...-1.908) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 13 seconds
20.Rollout217/16 12/8eq: -1.910 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
3.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.98% (G:92.94% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.912...-1.907) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 41 seconds
21.Rollout217/16 8/4eq: -1.910 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
2.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.14% (G:92.76% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.912...-1.909) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 10 seconds
22.Rollout212/11 8/4eq: -1.910 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
2.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.20% (G:92.74% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.912...-1.909) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 35 seconds
23.Rollout217/13 4/3eq: -1.912 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
3.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.98% (G:92.99% B:1.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.914...-1.910) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 42 seconds
24.Rollout210/5eq: -1.912 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
2.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.13% (G:92.84% B:1.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.914...-1.910) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 07 seconds
25.Rollout212/8 4/3eq: -1.914 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
2.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.07% (G:93.11% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.916...-1.912) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 19 seconds
26.Rollout28/3eq: -1.914 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
2.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.10% (G:93.08% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.916...-1.912) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 12 seconds
27.Rollout26/2 5/4eq: -1.916 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
2.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.08% (G:93.26% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.918...-1.914) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 45 seconds
28.Rollout210/6 8/7eq: -1.916 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
2.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.32% (G:93.01% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.919...-1.913) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 03 seconds
29.Rollout28/4 5/4eq: -1.917 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
2.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.27% (G:93.11% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.919...-1.914) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 50 seconds
30.Rollout217/16 10/6eq: -1.919 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
2.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.39% (G:92.91% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.921...-1.917) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/16.

My chances are so bad here that I think I have to guard again a freak backgammon so I’ll try 21/16.



USBGF Members: 65 5/0(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 17
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AC-aB--aa---b-a-a-eba----:1:-1:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.Rollout117/13 16/11eq: -1.929
Player:
Opponent:
2.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.52% (G:93.97% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.930...-1.928) - [70.2%]
Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds
2.playedRollout116/11 8/4eq: -1.929 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
2.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.62% (G:93.78% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.930...-1.929) - [29.3%]
Duration: 7 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout212/7 8/4eq: -1.931 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.59% (G:94.03% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.933...-1.930) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds
4.Rollout216/11 12/8eq: -1.932 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.59% (G:94.02% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.933...-1.930) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds
5.Rollout212/8 12/7eq: -1.933 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
2.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.56% (G:94.18% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.935...-1.932) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds
6.Rollout217/8eq: -1.933 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
2.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.62% (G:94.14% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.935...-1.932) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
7.Rollout217/13 12/7eq: -1.934 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
2.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.60% (G:94.04% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.936...-1.932) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
8.Rollout217/12 8/4eq: -1.934 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
2.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.74% (G:94.04% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.936...-1.933) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 07 seconds
9.Rollout210/5 8/4eq: -1.934 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
2.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.72% (G:94.02% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.936...-1.933) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
10.Rollout216/7eq: -1.935 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
2.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.64% (G:94.23% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.936...-1.933) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/11 8/4.

I have to assume that I hit a blot or I am losing a gammon. So 16/11 8/4 looks best if I hit. If there’s miracle doubles coming and they roll small, this also makes two crossovers and my 55 plays fine bringing two checkers to my 6 point.



USBGF Members: 21 2/0 1/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 14
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-aB--a----baa---ebb----:1:-1:-1:41:0:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout117/13 6/5eq: -1.970
Player:
Opponent:
2.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.08% (G:92.71% B:7.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.971...-1.968) - [98.4%]
Duration: 16 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout112/8 6/5eq: -1.974 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
2.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.15% (G:92.87% B:7.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.975...-1.972) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout117/13 12/11eq: -1.975 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
2.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.16% (G:92.88% B:7.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.976...-1.973) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 07 seconds
4.Rollout211/7 6/5eq: -1.975 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
2.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.11% (G:92.91% B:7.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.979...-1.971) - [0.3%]
Duration: 3 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout217/13 10/9eq: -1.976 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
2.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.17% (G:92.74% B:7.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.979...-1.973) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
6.Rollout26/5 6/2eq: -1.976 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
2.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.15% (G:92.95% B:7.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.980...-1.972) - [0.2%]
Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds
7.Rollout217/13 11/10eq: -1.976 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
2.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.17% (G:92.90% B:7.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.981...-1.971) - [1.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 43 seconds
8.Rollout217/16 6/2eq: -1.977 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
2.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.18% (G:93.01% B:7.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.982...-1.973) - [0.1%]
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds
9.Rollout212/11 12/8eq: -1.978 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
2.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.26% (G:93.03% B:7.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.982...-1.974) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
10.Rollout217/16 12/8eq: -1.978 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
2.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.25% (G:92.89% B:7.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.982...-1.975) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds
11.Rollout212/11 6/2eq: -1.979 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
2.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.19% (G:93.01% B:7.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.983...-1.975) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds
12.Rollout110/9 6/2eq: -1.979 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
2.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.21% (G:93.11% B:7.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.980...-1.977) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 03 seconds
13.Rollout212/8 11/10eq: -1.979 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
2.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.17% (G:92.86% B:7.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.982...-1.976) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds
14.Rollout211/7 10/9eq: -1.980 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
2.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.24% (G:93.04% B:7.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.983...-1.977) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 23 seconds
15.Rollout212/8 10/9eq: -1.980 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
2.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.22% (G:92.91% B:7.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.983...-1.977) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 39 seconds
16.Rollout217/16 11/7eq: -1.981 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
2.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.28% (G:93.11% B:7.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.985...-1.978) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 17/13 6/5.

If I run, I basically can never save gammon so I lose two 100% of the time. If I stay I lose three 5.56% of the time on their huge doubles, and occasionally if I am hit with one of their bad aces and I roll poorly from the bar. That parlay doesn’t seem too likely but they will certainly hit me with 31, 51, 61, which is 16.7% of the time. I doubt that I can lose nearly as much as 10% backgammons in those sequences, but I’ll be conservative and add 1.44% more backgammons so staying loses 7% backgammons.

They blot on 8 rolls and I therefore hit 100 times in the next sequence of 1296 rolls, or 7.7%. This means I should stay, except that I cannot always save the gammon after hitting, in spite of great outfield coverage. However, the good news when I hit is that I may be able to catch more blots and actually win the game probably a couple percent of the time. The gain from winning the game vs. losing a gammon is large, and this means that I should likely stay.

So let’s say that staying loses 7% backgammons, saves 6% gammons (I lose only a single game) and wins 2% games. This might be conservative but I’ll do better to stay. The best play that stays is clearly 17/13 6/5 leaving fine diversification and coverage.



USBGF Members: 21 2/1 2/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 11
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A--aB------abaa---dcb----:1:-1:-1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.Rollout112/7 6/3eq: -1.968
Player:
Opponent:
1.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.12% (G:90.76% B:6.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.969...-1.966) - [99.8%]
Duration: 5 minutes 54 seconds
2.playedRollout112/7 10/7eq: -1.970 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
1.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.18% (G:90.93% B:6.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.971...-1.969) - [0.2%]
Duration: 6 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout212/7 11/8eq: -1.973 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
1.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.20% (G:91.01% B:6.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.975...-1.970) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds
4.Rollout213/8 6/3eq: -1.973 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
1.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.27% (G:90.93% B:6.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.975...-1.971) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds
5.Rollout211/3eq: -1.974 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
1.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.20% (G:91.15% B:6.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.977...-1.971) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds
6.Rollout213/8 12/9eq: -1.974 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
1.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.25% (G:91.07% B:6.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.977...-1.972) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds
7.Rollout212/9 12/7eq: -1.974 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
1.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.19% (G:91.11% B:6.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.977...-1.972) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
8.Rollout210/5 6/3eq: -1.975 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
1.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.26% (G:91.13% B:6.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.977...-1.973) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds
9.Rollout212/9 10/5eq: -1.977 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
1.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.26% (G:91.31% B:6.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.979...-1.974) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
10.Rollout213/8 10/7eq: -1.977 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
1.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.26% (G:91.23% B:6.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.980...-1.974) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53.8 seconds
11.Rollout212/4eq: -1.977 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
1.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.29% (G:91.15% B:6.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.979...-1.975) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds
12.Rollout213/8 11/8eq: -1.978 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
1.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.28% (G:91.30% B:6.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.981...-1.974) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
13.Rollout212/9 11/6eq: -1.980 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
1.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.28% (G:91.36% B:6.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.982...-1.978) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48.6 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/7 10/7.

Now all aces leave me a gammon save shot and still only 55 and 66 or a very poor roll from the bar backgammon me. However, I am less likely to win than last decision, but even without those wins it seems clear to stay since I can save more gammons than backgammons I lose.



USBGF Members: 32 5/3 5/2


USBGF Members win 4 points, and lead 7-away/11-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:4:0:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 170
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 71
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBbG--bA--c--Aab-e------:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout115/14 9/5eq: +0.434
Player:
Opponent:
63.54% (G:36.29% B:0.23%)
36.46% (G:2.78% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.426...+0.443) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
2.Rollout19/5 2/1eq: +0.358 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
60.98% (G:36.60% B:0.17%)
39.02% (G:4.15% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.348...+0.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
3.Rollout19/5 3/2eq: +0.349 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
60.69% (G:36.69% B:0.18%)
39.31% (G:4.41% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.340...+0.358) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 15/14 9/5
[ 7] 9/5 3/2
[ 3] 9/5 2/1
[ 1] 15/14 3/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 15/14 9/5

When we are hugely ahead in the race (104 pips after the roll here) I like to minimize the blot count. That means we want to only have one blot not two, so 9/5 is a must. Then the only sensible 1 is 15/14.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 170
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 66
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBbH--b---c-A-ab-e------:1:-1:-1:43:0:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout19/5 8/5eq: -0.891
Player:
Opponent:
23.18% (G:1.71% B:0.05%)
76.82% (G:46.76% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.897...-0.884) - [100.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 6/3eq: -0.922 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
23.44% (G:1.81% B:0.05%)
76.56% (G:50.70% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.929...-0.915) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 9/5eq: -0.933 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
22.33% (G:1.83% B:0.06%)
77.67% (G:48.96% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.940...-0.926) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/5 8/5.

I’d consider 21/18 13/9 if I couldn’t lose a gammon but here I just have to make my 5 point.



USBGF Members: 61 14/7


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 59
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBbH-Ab---c----a-eb-----:1:-1:-1:51:0:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.Rollout117/16 13/8eq: -1.651
Player:
Opponent:
3.32% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
96.68% (G:69.83% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.652...-1.650) - [68.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
2.playedRollout117/12 13/12eq: -1.652 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.16% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
96.84% (G:69.52% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.653...-1.650) - [16.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
3.Rollout113/12 13/8eq: -1.652 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.28% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
96.72% (G:69.83% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.653...-1.651) - [9.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
4.xgRollout117/16 17/12eq: -1.653 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
3.20% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
96.80% (G:69.73% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.655...-1.652) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
5.Rollout217/12 8/7eq: -1.654 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
3.12% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
96.88% (G:69.58% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.657...-1.650) - [5.3%]
Duration: 28 minutes 35 seconds
6.Rollout213/7eq: -1.655 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
3.10% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
96.90% (G:69.70% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.658...-1.652) - [1.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 57 seconds
7.Rollout217/11eq: -1.657 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
3.15% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
96.85% (G:70.01% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.661...-1.654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 17 seconds
8.Rollout217/12 6/5eq: -1.662 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
3.46% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
96.54% (G:71.15% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.666...-1.658) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 38 seconds
9.Rollout213/8 6/5eq: -1.663 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
3.46% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
96.54% (G:71.23% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.665...-1.660) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 17/12 13/12.

It is all about gammon save now since I am unlikely to ever hit anything and possibly then win. I’ll likely need 6’s to accomplish this unlikely save so I’ll go with 17/12 13/12.



USBGF Members: 55 7/2 5/0(3)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 39
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCBbE--a---bb---a-eb-----:1:-1:-1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout117/14 6/4eq: -1.840
Player:
Opponent:
4.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.66% (G:90.33% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.841...-1.839) - [94.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
2.playedRollout113/10 6/4eq: -1.841 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
4.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.72% (G:90.22% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.842...-1.840) - [5.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
3.Rollout112/9 6/4eq: -1.842 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
4.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.66% (G:90.46% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.843...-1.842) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
4.Rollout213/8eq: -1.845 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
4.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.93% (G:90.11% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.847...-1.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout217/14 13/11eq: -1.845 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
3.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.02% (G:89.91% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.847...-1.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 16 seconds
6.Rollout38/5 6/4eq: -1.845 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
4.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.83% (G:90.42% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.847...-1.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 34 seconds
7.Rollout217/14 12/10eq: -1.845 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
4.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.91% (G:90.16% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.848...-1.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 58 seconds
8.Rollout217/15 13/10eq: -1.846 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
4.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.99% (G:89.96% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.849...-1.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 14 seconds
9.Rollout213/10 12/10eq: -1.846 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
4.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.99% (G:90.06% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.848...-1.844) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 17 seconds
10.Rollout26/4 6/3eq: -1.846 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
4.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.59% (G:91.05% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.849...-1.844) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 20 seconds
11.Rollout212/10 12/9eq: -1.849 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
4.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.96% (G:90.45% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.851...-1.847) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 43 seconds
12.Rollout213/11 13/10eq: -1.849 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
3.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.15% (G:89.86% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.851...-1.847) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 41 seconds
13.Rollout213/11 12/9eq: -1.849 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
3.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.03% (G:90.16% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.851...-1.847) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 59 seconds
14.Rollout217/15 12/9eq: -1.849 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
4.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.96% (G:90.36% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.851...-1.847) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 20 seconds
15.Rollout217/12eq: -1.850 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
3.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.04% (G:90.18% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.852...-1.847) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 17 seconds
16.Rollout217/15 6/3eq: -1.850 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
4.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.80% (G:90.82% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.852...-1.848) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 28 seconds
17.Rollout217/15 8/5eq: -1.851 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
3.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.11% (G:90.21% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.853...-1.849) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 51 seconds
18.Rollout213/11 8/5eq: -1.851 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
3.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.19% (G:90.04% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.853...-1.849) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 53 seconds
19.Rollout212/7eq: -1.851 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
4.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.97% (G:90.53% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.853...-1.849) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 14 seconds
20.Rollout212/10 8/5eq: -1.851 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
3.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.13% (G:90.19% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.854...-1.849) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 37 seconds
21.Rollout217/14 8/6eq: -1.851 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
3.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.21% (G:90.05% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.854...-1.849) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 46 seconds
22.Rollout213/10 8/6eq: -1.852 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
3.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.25% (G:89.97% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.854...-1.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 36 seconds
23.Rollout213/11 6/3eq: -1.853 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
4.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.89% (G:90.88% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.855...-1.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 56 seconds
24.Rollout212/9 8/6eq: -1.853 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
3.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.23% (G:90.15% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.855...-1.851) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 31 seconds
25.Rollout221/18 6/4eq: -1.861 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
3.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.06% (G:91.38% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.863...-1.859) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

3 2078 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 6/4.

Now the gammon save is almost hopeless unless I can hit a hopefully upcoming blot on their 5 point. If I play 6/4, I am more likely to be able to contain what I can hit and then 13/10 makes a cross over and adds a builder. Slight wastage for the gammon save from 6/4 hardly matters since I may need a checker on my 4 point for some last roll save anyhow. If the gammon save by running was a reasonable possibility, I’d make two cross overs from my mid point. Once you are over 100 pips behind you don’t rate to save many gammons without hitting.



USBGF Members: 63 5/0 3/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 31
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCAbD--a---ab-a-a-dba----:1:-1:-1:43:0:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout18/4 6/3eq: -1.915
Player:
Opponent:
2.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.12% (G:93.95% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.916...-1.914) - [53.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout112/8 10/7eq: -1.915 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
2.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.14% (G:93.91% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.916...-1.914) - [16.2%]
Duration: 57 minutes 23 seconds
3.Rollout121/18 12/8eq: -1.915 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
2.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.25% (G:93.73% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.916...-1.914) - [12.2%]
Duration: 56 minutes 05 seconds
4.Rollout121/18 13/9eq: -1.916 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
2.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.32% (G:93.57% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.916...-1.915) - [2.6%]
Duration: 47 minutes 02 seconds
5.Rollout121/14eq: -1.916 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
2.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.32% (G:93.66% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.916...-1.915) - [0.9%]
Duration: 55 minutes 34 seconds
6.Rollout117/14 12/8eq: -1.916 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
2.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.21% (G:93.86% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.917...-1.915) - [0.5%]
Duration: 51 minutes 30 seconds
7.Rollout213/10 12/8eq: -1.916 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
2.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.27% (G:93.69% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.917...-1.915) - [2.5%]
Duration: 11 minutes 07 seconds
8.Rollout217/14 13/9eq: -1.916 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
2.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.29% (G:93.59% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.918...-1.915) - [2.4%]
Duration: 8 minutes 33 seconds
9.Rollout221/17 10/7eq: -1.916 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
2.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.29% (G:93.78% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.918...-1.915) - [4.1%]
Duration: 9 minutes 51 seconds
10.Rollout210/7 8/4eq: -1.916 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.26% (G:93.71% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.917...-1.915) - [0.5%]
Duration: 10 minutes 43 seconds
11.xgRollout221/18 17/13eq: -1.916 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.32% (G:93.67% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.918...-1.915) - [1.2%]
Duration: 10 minutes 12 seconds
12.Rollout221/18 8/4eq: -1.917 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.39% (G:93.58% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.918...-1.915) - [0.4%]
Duration: 10 minutes 05 seconds
13.Rollout213/9 12/9eq: -1.917 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.27% (G:93.66% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.918...-1.915) - [1.2%]
Duration: 8 minutes 53 seconds
14.Rollout217/13 12/9eq: -1.917 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.20% (G:93.88% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.918...-1.915) - [0.7%]
Duration: 9 minutes 21 seconds
15.Rollout217/10eq: -1.917 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.32% (G:93.62% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.918...-1.916) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 55 seconds
16.Rollout212/9 8/4eq: -1.917 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.31% (G:93.77% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.919...-1.915) - [0.6%]
Duration: 8 minutes 57 seconds
17.Rollout217/14 8/4eq: -1.917 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.35% (G:93.67% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.919...-1.916) - [0.1%]
Duration: 10 minutes 30 seconds
18.Rollout212/9 12/8eq: -1.917 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.20% (G:93.90% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.919...-1.916) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
19.Rollout217/13 8/5eq: -1.918 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.34% (G:93.64% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.919...-1.917) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
20.Rollout221/17 13/10eq: -1.918 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.41% (G:93.61% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.919...-1.917) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds
21.Rollout212/8 6/3eq: -1.918 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.14% (G:94.03% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.919...-1.917) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 16 seconds
22.Rollout217/14 10/6eq: -1.918 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.40% (G:93.60% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.920...-1.916) - [0.1%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
23.Rollout213/9 8/5eq: -1.918 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.39% (G:93.59% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.920...-1.917) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 15 seconds
24.Rollout210/3eq: -1.918 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.23% (G:93.89% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.920...-1.917) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 00 second
25.Rollout213/10 8/4eq: -1.918 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
2.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.39% (G:93.63% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.919...-1.917) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds
26.Rollout221/17 8/5eq: -1.919 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
2.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.41% (G:93.66% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.920...-1.918) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 46 seconds
27.Rollout221/18 10/6eq: -1.919 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
2.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.48% (G:93.59% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.921...-1.918) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 39 seconds
28.playedRollout213/6eq: -1.920 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
2.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.47% (G:93.54% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.921...-1.918) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 51 seconds
29.Rollout210/6 8/5eq: -1.921 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
2.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.49% (G:93.55% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.922...-1.919) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
30.Rollout28/4 5/2eq: -1.927 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
2.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.43% (G:94.26% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.929...-1.926) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 40 seconds
31.Rollout26/2 5/2eq: -1.927 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
2.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.33% (G:94.53% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.929...-1.926) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/6.

A shot is even less likely now, so I will play 13/6 which wastes no pips.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 31
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCAbD--a----b-a-a-eba----:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 177
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBcG---a-Ad----b-e-A----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout121/15 11/9* eq: +0.989
Player:
Opponent:
75.55% (G:60.23% B:0.33%)
24.45% (G:2.71% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.981...+0.997) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
2.Rollout111/9* 9/3eq: +0.932 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
73.71% (G:58.55% B:0.32%)
26.29% (G:2.09% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.924...+0.939) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20401685
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 21/15 11/9*
[11] 11/9*/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/15 11/9*

We have to hit here with 11/9*.

After the hit, we could safety 9/3 but our biggest weakness is our rearmost checker. We should play 21/15, moving the rear checker closer to home and connecting it with the checker on our 9 point. We only get hit with 63 and 65, and we have “boardage” (a much stronger board).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 186
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 71
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBcG---A--d--A-b-e------:1:-1:-1:44:0:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/17 21/17 13/9eq: -0.754
Player:
Opponent:
28.18% (G:2.52% B:0.08%)
71.82% (G:46.44% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.761...-0.747) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/17 21/17 8/4eq: -0.928 (-0.174)
Player:
Opponent:
23.80% (G:2.20% B:0.07%)
76.20% (G:51.85% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.935...-0.921) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/17 21/17 13/9.

I must make obstacles to possibly restrain them and also to increase my chances of hitting, so my only play is b/17 21/17 13/9 which also wastes no pips for the gammon save.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 170
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 71
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBbG--bA--c--Aab-e------:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 77
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbCD-----dB---b-e------:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout16/5(4)eq: +1.367
Player:
Opponent:
84.20% (G:73.93% B:0.53%)
15.80% (G:1.53% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.360...+1.374) - [100.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout16/5 3/2 3/1eq: +1.307 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
82.03% (G:73.71% B:0.79%)
17.97% (G:1.86% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.301...+1.314) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout13/1(2)eq: +1.271 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
81.07% (G:72.76% B:0.70%)
18.93% (G:1.94% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.265...+1.278) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 58 seconds
4.Rollout16/5(2) 3/2(2)eq: +1.256 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
80.85% (G:71.73% B:0.80%)
19.15% (G:1.87% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.249...+1.263) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 14 seconds
5.Rollout16/5(2) 2/1(2)eq: +1.220 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
79.93% (G:70.91% B:0.71%)
20.07% (G:1.97% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.212...+1.228) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 08 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82851363
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 6/5(4)
[ 7] 3/1(2)
[ 2] 6/5(2) 2/1(2)
[ 2] 6/5 3/2 3/1
[ 1] 6/5(2) 3/2(2)



Neil Kazaross: 64 b/21 b/19
USBGF Members: 51 13/7


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 180
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 67
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBcGaA----dA---b-e------:1:-1:-1:41:0:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout119/18* 18/14eq: -0.262
Player:
Opponent:
41.56% (G:5.65% B:0.19%)
58.44% (G:35.08% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.272...-0.252) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
2.xgRollout119/15 13/12* eq: -0.320 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
40.59% (G:3.77% B:0.12%)
59.41% (G:36.24% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.329...-0.311) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout119/18* 13/9eq: -0.323 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
40.69% (G:6.16% B:0.20%)
59.31% (G:38.87% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.333...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
4.Rollout121/17 13/12* eq: -0.333 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
40.47% (G:4.00% B:0.12%)
59.53% (G:37.68% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.343...-0.324) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
5.Rollout121/17 19/18* eq: -0.342 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
39.84% (G:5.73% B:0.18%)
60.16% (G:38.26% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.352...-0.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20401685
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 19/18*/14.

I’ve seen many errors made over the years by players who’ve been granted a stay of execution like this. One should slow down, calm down, and try to regain focus when a freaky sequence happens and take stock of what is happening on the board. Here I am so far behind in pips that I need to hit the checker on the 18 point and risk 8 more shots. I can leave only a hitting 55 by playing 19/15 13/12*, but the problem with that is that the checker on the 18 point will almost always find safety. Then I may end up gammoned easily if their remaining checker can run home.

So this means leaving 9 shots with 19/188/14. Three quarters of the time I am not hit and almost all their rolls leave me chances to hit a second checker. Noting that if hit, I may enter their cracked 4 point board, I have to risk this.



USBGF Members: 42 b/21 13/11*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 186
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBcG-----Ad----b-e-A----:1:-1:-1:63:0:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.692
Player:
Opponent:
31.30% (G:3.19% B:0.10%)
68.70% (G:48.92% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.696...-0.689) - [99.8%]
Duration: 8 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/19 6/3eq: -0.700 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
31.76% (G:3.61% B:0.11%)
68.24% (G:51.03% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.703...-0.696) - [0.2%]
Duration: 8 hours 46 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20401685
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16.

After entering I have only two choices: 6/3 and 19/16. I’ve often said that when you don’t want to be hit, strongly consider leaving fewer meaningful shots. B/16 is hit by 12 two’s and 66, but 66 hardly matters since I usually lose a gammon whether it hits or not. 6/3 leaves 15 shots and 55 is really nasty. But if I do get hit loose or they roll small I get a shot. This seems like a close call, but I don’t need a blot on my 3 point that can be hard to cover and the 16 point is a good spot for outfield coverage assuming I am missed and am trying to contain their back checker. Additionally, 6/3 wastes some pips for the gammon save.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 177
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBcG---a-Ad----b-e-A----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 81
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbBD--A--dB---b-e------:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout19/5eq: +1.717
Player:
Opponent:
92.31% (G:86.66% B:0.85%)
7.69% (G:0.31% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.712...+1.722) - [99.9%]
Duration: 41 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout19/7 6/5(2)eq: +1.706 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
92.12% (G:86.17% B:0.75%)
7.88% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.700...+1.711) - [0.1%]
Duration: 39 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95159005
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 9/5
[ 3] 9/7 6/5(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/5

9/7 6/5(2) looks cute, but over the board the best play is 9/5.



Neil Kazaross: 62 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 77
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbCD-----dB---b-e------:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 101
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbBC--A--dA---bAe-A----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout121/11 18/8eq: +1.698
Player:
Opponent:
92.03% (G:85.60% B:0.77%)
7.97% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.693...+1.702) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 20 seconds
2.playedRollout121/6 18/13eq: +1.680 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
91.61% (G:84.75% B:0.80%)
8.39% (G:0.37% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.675...+1.685) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout121/11 13/3eq: +1.664 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
91.21% (G:84.55% B:0.67%)
8.79% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.659...+1.669) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout121/16 18/8 13/8eq: +1.659 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
91.13% (G:84.19% B:0.70%)
8.87% (G:0.47% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.654...+1.663) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95159005
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 21/6 18/13
[10] 21/16 18/8 13/8
[ 4] 21/11 18/8
[ 2] 21/11 13/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/6 18/13

When the game looks all over unless your opponent rolls a double from the bar – make sure you avoid the double from the bar. Here we need to avoid placing any checker on a point that can be hit if Neil rolls 44. So no blots on our 16 or 8 point.

We should definitely move our 2 rearmost checkers so 21/6 18/13 is best. We can then handle rolling any double.



Neil Kazaross: 52 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 81
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbBD--A--dB---b-e------:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 109
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbABAAA--dA---b-eA--A--:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.xgRollout123/21 13/11 8/6 7/5eq: +1.399
Player:
Opponent:
86.17% (G:72.41% B:0.54%)
13.83% (G:1.37% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.393...+1.406) - [99.7%]
Duration: 55 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout123/21 20/18 13/11 7/5eq: +1.387 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
86.02% (G:71.36% B:0.52%)
13.98% (G:1.46% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.381...+1.393) - [0.4%]
Duration: 50 minutes 52 seconds
3.playedRollout123/21 20/18 8/6 7/5eq: +1.377 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
85.72% (G:71.12% B:0.55%)
14.28% (G:1.49% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.371...+1.383) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 59 seconds
4.Rollout120/18 13/11 8/6 7/5eq: +1.371 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
85.47% (G:71.25% B:0.53%)
14.53% (G:1.40% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.365...+1.378) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 45 seconds
5.Rollout123/21 9/5 8/6eq: +1.369 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
85.37% (G:71.20% B:0.53%)
14.63% (G:1.51% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.362...+1.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 02 seconds
6.Rollout123/21 13/11 9/5eq: +1.368 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
85.54% (G:71.12% B:0.51%)
14.46% (G:1.63% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.361...+1.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 25 seconds
7.Rollout123/21 20/16 7/5eq: +1.364 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
85.40% (G:70.81% B:0.51%)
14.60% (G:1.61% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.358...+1.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 03 seconds
8.Rollout113/11 9/5 8/6eq: +1.363 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
85.16% (G:71.26% B:0.53%)
14.84% (G:1.53% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.356...+1.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 18 seconds
9.Rollout120/16 13/11 7/5eq: +1.358 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
85.11% (G:70.90% B:0.51%)
14.89% (G:1.72% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.352...+1.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 13 seconds
10.Rollout123/21 13/9 7/5eq: +1.358 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
85.22% (G:70.48% B:0.50%)
14.78% (G:1.50% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.352...+1.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 11 seconds
11.Rollout120/16 8/6 7/5eq: +1.354 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
85.08% (G:70.51% B:0.53%)
14.92% (G:1.58% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.348...+1.360) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 52 seconds
12.Rollout123/21 20/18 9/5eq: +1.351 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
85.11% (G:70.48% B:0.53%)
14.89% (G:1.76% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.344...+1.358) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 34 seconds
13.Rollout120/14 7/5eq: +1.349 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
85.10% (G:70.12% B:0.50%)
14.90% (G:1.65% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.343...+1.355) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 18 seconds
14.Rollout113/11 9/5 7/5eq: +1.349 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
84.79% (G:70.79% B:0.53%)
15.21% (G:1.70% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.342...+1.355) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 34 seconds
15.Rollout113/9 8/6 7/5eq: +1.346 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
84.82% (G:70.28% B:0.53%)
15.18% (G:1.40% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.340...+1.351) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 04 seconds
16.Rollout123/21 9/5 7/5eq: +1.345 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
84.79% (G:70.51% B:0.52%)
15.21% (G:1.72% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.338...+1.351) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 12 seconds
17.Rollout120/18 13/11 9/5eq: +1.338 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
84.76% (G:70.38% B:0.49%)
15.24% (G:1.79% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.331...+1.345) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 00 second
18.Rollout19/5 8/6 7/5eq: +1.333 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
84.35% (G:70.53% B:0.56%)
15.65% (G:1.75% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.326...+1.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 08 seconds
19.Rollout120/18 9/5 8/6eq: +1.329 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
84.40% (G:70.17% B:0.52%)
15.60% (G:1.71% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.323...+1.336) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 27 seconds
20.Rollout120/18 13/9 7/5eq: +1.324 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
84.49% (G:69.20% B:0.47%)
15.51% (G:1.62% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.318...+1.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 26 seconds
21.Rollout120/16 9/5eq: +1.318 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
84.16% (G:69.91% B:0.51%)
15.84% (G:1.98% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.310...+1.325) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 25 seconds
22.Rollout120/18 9/5 7/5eq: +1.317 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
84.05% (G:69.85% B:0.53%)
15.95% (G:1.88% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.310...+1.323) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 46 seconds
23.Rollout113/5eq: +1.290 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
83.30% (G:69.19% B:0.49%)
16.70% (G:2.06% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.283...+1.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95159005
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[6] 23/21 20/18 8/6 7/5
[5] 23/21 13/11 8/6 7/5
[4] 20/14 7/5
[4] 23/21 20/16 7/5
[3] 23/21 20/18 13/11 7/5
[3] 23/21 20/18 9/5
[3] 20/18 9/5 8/6
[2] 13/9 8/6 7/5
[2] 13/5
[1] 20/18 13/11 8/6 7/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/21 13/11 7/5

The first two has to be 7/5 covering our inner board blot.

Next we should play 8/6 so that if Neil rolls 44 that he does not hit us from the bar. Note that if he does roll 44, he would enter and hit without leaving any blots for us to return hit.

We should advance our rearmost checker so 23/21 then 13/11 feels right.



Neil Kazaross: 51 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 101
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbBC--A--dA---bAe-A----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 12/19 915a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-12-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbAB-AA--dB---b-e-A-A--:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout123/16eq: +0.905
Player:
Opponent:
75.16% (G:54.22% B:0.44%)
24.84% (G:4.92% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.902...+0.908) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 59 minutes
2.Rollout123/22 21/15eq: +0.897 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
75.02% (G:53.71% B:0.44%)
24.98% (G:4.96% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.893...+0.900) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 34 minutes
3.Rollout221/15 8/7eq: +0.869 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
74.30% (G:52.85% B:0.47%)
25.70% (G:4.93% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.860...+0.877) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
4.Rollout221/14eq: +0.858 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
74.00% (G:52.63% B:0.44%)
26.00% (G:5.09% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.850...+0.866) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 28 seconds
5.Rollout213/6eq: +0.850 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
73.46% (G:53.89% B:0.42%)
26.54% (G:5.31% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.841...+0.858) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
6.playedRollout221/20 13/7eq: +0.847 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
73.41% (G:53.52% B:0.44%)
26.59% (G:5.42% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.838...+0.855) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 46 seconds
7.Rollout223/22 13/7eq: +0.845 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
73.62% (G:53.49% B:0.46%)
26.38% (G:5.84% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.836...+0.853) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
8.Rollout221/15 9/8eq: +0.845 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
73.78% (G:51.70% B:0.43%)
26.22% (G:5.00% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.837...+0.852) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 21 seconds
9.Rollout221/15 6/5eq: +0.835 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
73.57% (G:51.85% B:0.40%)
26.43% (G:5.64% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.827...+0.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
10.Rollout213/7 8/7eq: +0.823 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
72.89% (G:52.31% B:0.49%)
27.11% (G:5.41% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.814...+0.831) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 16 seconds
11.Rollout213/7 6/5eq: +0.787 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
72.16% (G:51.97% B:0.44%)
27.84% (G:6.37% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.778...+0.796) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 55121427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 55121427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 21/20 13/7
[ 7] 13/6
[ 7] 23/16
[ 4] 13/7 8/7
[ 3] 21/15 9/8
[ 2] 23/22 13/7
[ 1] 23/22 21/15
[ 1] 21/15 8/7
[ 1] 13/7 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/16

We would love to play 13/7 bringing yet another builder into the zone but we do not want to give up the mid-point.

So we have to play either 23/16 or 23/22 21/15. How to decide? Let me quote the late Walter Trice from “Backgammon Bootcamp” page 91 – ‘So when in doubt, one approach is to just pick up the hindmost checker and see if you can put it down in a reasonable place’. 23/16 stays connected and follows the above advice.



Neil Kazaross: 61 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 109
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbABAAA--dA---b-eA--A--:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 188
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBaBb-C-B-A-dC---b-e-A-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.41% (G:34.92% B:0.74%) 63.35% (G:35.48% B:0.57%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.59% (G:7.67% B:0.35%) 36.65% (G:7.93% B:0.37%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.550 +1.123
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.735 (-0.064)±0.010 (+0.724..+0.745)
played Double/Take:+0.799±0.016 (+0.782..+0.815)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.201)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 55121427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] Double
[ 7] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We have the stronger board, with one of Neil’s checker’s on the bar. We are up in the race by 53 pips before the roll. We have threats and at least 9 market losers with no real anti-jokers so this has to be a double.

So ship it and let Neil decide.


Neil Kazaross takes.

A sound double and one I didn’t want to see, but with my high anchor in their 3 point board, I cannot pass it when they have two unanchored checkers back. This is a fine double for them with rather good diversification and threats. I will be most unhappy if they soon make a 4th point and I cannot enter quickly.



USBGF Members: 64 8/2* 6/2
Neil Kazaross: 52 b/20
USBGF Members: 54 13/9 10/5*
Neil Kazaross: 21 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbAB-AA--dB---b-e-A-A--:1:-1:1:16:0:0:0:11:10
to play 16

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 165
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaBb-C-B---dD---b-e-A-a-A:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout1Bar/23* 23/20eq: +0.484
Player:
Opponent:
58.23% (G:27.04% B:0.68%)
41.77% (G:9.37% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.471...+0.496) - [97.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/23* 13/10eq: +0.465 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
57.70% (G:27.66% B:0.71%)
42.30% (G:9.80% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.451...+0.479) - [2.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23* 21/18eq: +0.428 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
57.34% (G:26.17% B:0.71%)
42.66% (G:10.02% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.415...+0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42875827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] b/23* 13/10
[13] b/23*/20
[ 6] b/23 21/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23*/20

Obviously we need to hit Bar/23*.

Then we should consider 13/10 and 23/20.

13/10 gives Neil a good 6 from the bar, and that is something we would rather not do. He cannot enter with a 6 so his 6’s could be very awkward.

23/20 slots the 20 point, takes aim at any checkers that Neil has to play from his 13 point (that do not go to his 8 point). 23/20 is my quick move but I cannot see a better alternative so will go with that.



Neil Kazaross: 11 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 188
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBaBb-C-B-A-dC---b-e-A-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-Ba-C-A---eE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout124/21 13/8eq: +0.038
Player:
Opponent:
49.07% (G:18.47% B:0.38%)
50.93% (G:11.44% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.029...+0.047) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: +0.009 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
47.80% (G:19.51% B:0.29%)
52.20% (G:10.84% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.000...+0.019) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85471217
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 24/21 13/8
[ 2] 13/10 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 13/8

First we play 13/8 then consider how to play the 3. If we play 13/10, Neil can hit and escape which we do not want to happen.

24/21 confronts now when we have the stronger board. Even if Neil points on us, we will have many return shots from the bar as we can attack Neil’s rearmost checker.

So 24/21 13/8 for me.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-Ba-C-B---eD-a-c-e-A--A-:0:0:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/4* eq: -0.347
Player:
Opponent:
43.55% (G:10.27% B:0.51%)
56.45% (G:25.27% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.358...-0.337) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 10/6eq: -0.395 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
42.48% (G:8.44% B:0.45%)
57.52% (G:22.75% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.404...-0.386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
3.Rollout18/4* 6/1* eq: -0.410 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
42.06% (G:11.47% B:0.42%)
57.94% (G:27.30% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.419...-0.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
4.Rollout121/16 10/6eq: -0.434 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
41.08% (G:5.83% B:0.27%)
58.92% (G:20.18% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.444...-0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42875827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/4*.

I have three plays to consider (hitting both is too loose and strips my 8) and don’t like any of them. 21/16 10/6 is ugly and leaves 15 shots, and if missed, I am still behind in the race and often likely to blot later. Stacking 13/8 10/6 may be a bit better, but is also ugly and certainly isn’t dynamic. Since I expect to play 13/8 anyhow, I might as well look at trying for more with 8/4*. This seems counterintuitive when outboarded, but if missed I am doing fine. I have a 6 to cover my 4 point and if hit, maybe I can anchor or at least enter and make my 10 point. Being behind in the game, I’ll risk mixing it up and hit, and hope they roll a missing 6.



USBGF Members: 11 b/21*
Neil Kazaross: 64 b/21 10/4*
USBGF Members: 32 b/23 24/21*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 173
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-Bb-C-B---dD---c-e-A-A--:0:0:-1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.Rollout1Bar/23 13/7eq: -0.454
Player:
Opponent:
41.40% (G:10.04% B:0.42%)
58.60% (G:25.14% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.459...-0.449) - [54.4%]
Duration: 13 hours 06 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/23 8/2* eq: -0.455 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
40.79% (G:9.97% B:0.37%)
59.21% (G:22.42% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.459...-0.450) - [45.6%]
Duration: 13 hours 08 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42875827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 8/2*.

I have two plays to consider, noting that breaking anchor is unthinkable. 13/7 is hopeful and enterprising and puts this checker in a good spot, but unfortunately it isn’t likely to remain in that spot. After 13/7, that blot is hit with 5’s and 3’s and my blot on my 23 point can be hit with 6’s and 4’s. This just seems to be too much to me, so as much as it hurts my eyes I have to play 8/2*.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 165
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaBb-C-B---dD---b-e-A-a-A:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout18/3(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.282
Player:
Opponent:
53.18% (G:24.70% B:0.69%)
46.82% (G:11.06% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.272...+0.291) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
2.Rollout113/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.210 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
53.17% (G:21.75% B:0.69%)
46.83% (G:11.10% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.199...+0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout113/3 6/1*(2) eq: +0.103 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:
50.18% (G:21.09% B:0.74%)
49.82% (G:12.58% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.091...+0.115) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
4.Rollout113/3 8/3 6/1* eq: +0.087 (-0.195)
Player:
Opponent:
50.29% (G:19.75% B:0.70%)
49.71% (G:12.60% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.075...+0.098) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
5.Rollout113/3(2)eq: -0.003 (-0.284)
Player:
Opponent:
49.20% (G:16.31% B:0.56%)
50.80% (G:13.21% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.014...+0.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42875827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/3(2) 6/1*(2)
[ 3] 13/3(2)
[ 2] 13/8(2) 6/1*(2)
[ 2] 13/3 8/3 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3(2) 6/1*(2)

A nice reply to Neil’s 63 split. The standard reply is 8/3(2) 6/1*(2) and that is my choice. If Neil fans we can double him out.



Neil Kazaross: 54 b/21 18/13


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-Ba-C-A---eE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-08

[Previous] [Next]


Neil Kazaross: 63 24/18 13/10

Today's vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 59
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBCBA-----------dcbbcA-:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout124/18 7/6eq: -0.773
Player:
Opponent:
11.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.67% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.774...-0.773) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout124/17eq: -0.789 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
10.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.46% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.789...-0.789) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout124/18 6/5eq: -0.799 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
10.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.93% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.799...-0.798) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout124/18 5/4eq: -0.799 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
10.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.94% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.799...-0.799) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 42 seconds
5.Rollout124/18 3/2eq: -0.811 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
9.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.57% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.811...-0.811) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 12 seconds
6.Rollout124/18 4/3eq: -0.813 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
9.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.67% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.813...-0.813) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 06 seconds
7.Rollout124/18 2/1eq: -0.817 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
9.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.85% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.817...-0.817) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 20 seconds
8.Rollout17/1 5/4eq: -0.847 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
7.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.35% (G:1.58% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.847...-0.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74059911
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 24/18 7/6 (coin flip!)
[14] 7/1 5/4
[ 1] 24/17


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 7/6

If we stay on the 24 point, we will have to play 7/1, then next turn we will be forced to run if we roll a 6.

Neil can play every single roll safely this turn. So we need to decide whether we win more by staying or running. If we run 24/18 then we should play 7/6 getting a crossover which gets the other checker into our board.

Notice that Neil has a gap on his 1 point and we need two long crossovers to get our checkers into our board. I think we will have a better chance to win by running now than waiting for a possible shot at least two turns down the track. Also if we wait we will probably have damaged our board making it hard to contain any hit checkers, so let’s go now.



Neil Kazaross: 31 3/0 2/1
USBGF Members: 11 18/14
Neil Kazaross: 43 4/0 3/0
USBGF Members: 42 14/8
Neil Kazaross: 54 5/0 4/0
USBGF Members: 11 8/6 1/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 22 6/4(2) 2/0(2)
USBGF Members: 41 4/0 2/1
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 54 5/0 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 62 6/0 4/2
USBGF Members: 21 2/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 62 5/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 51


Neil Kazaross wins two points and the match.

USBGF OLM 2018-12-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCCB---A-------edabcA-:1:-1:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout111/1 7/2 6/1eq: -0.680
Player:
Opponent:
16.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.00% (G:1.40% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.681...-0.680) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout111/1 7/2(2)eq: -0.687 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
15.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.33% (G:1.23% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.687...-0.686) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 11/1 7/2 6/1
[ 2] 11/1 7/2(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

We could bring all the checkers in with 11/1 7/2(2) but that is the racing play, and I think we have a better chance of winning by making a strong board with 11/1 7/2 6/1 and hoping we get a shot and hit. If Neil rolls 66 we get a double shot. If he rolls 55 or 65 we get a single shot.



Neil Kazaross: 52 6/4 5/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 59
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBCBA-----------dcbbcA-:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCBB---A-A-b---dd-bcA-:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/6eq: -0.634
Player:
Opponent:
17.28% (G:1.02% B:0.04%)
82.72% (G:3.55% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.635...-0.633) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 59 seconds
2.xgRollout111/4eq: -0.637 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
17.14% (G:1.03% B:0.04%)
82.86% (G:3.99% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.638...-0.636) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 17 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 11/10eq: -0.637 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
17.11% (G:1.03% B:0.05%)
82.89% (G:3.90% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.638...-0.636) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout113/7 5/4eq: -0.639 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
17.03% (G:1.00% B:0.03%)
82.97% (G:3.94% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.640...-0.638) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/6
[ 2] 24/17
[ 1] 24/18 13/12
[ 1] 13/7 5/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/6

If we run we risk being hit, and if missed we will be in a losing race so we have to stay.

Our next job is to cover the blot on our 2 point. Either 11/4 or 13/6 bring another builder into direct range to cover it. 13/6 has to be better than 11/4 as 13/6 gives us 4’s to cover and 11/4 gives us 2’s to cover.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCCB---A---b---dd-bcA-:1:-1:-1:64:7:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout110/6 10/4eq: +0.253
Player:
Opponent:
64.73% (G:4.21% B:0.09%)
35.27% (G:2.07% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.251...+0.255) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout110/4 6/2eq: +0.147 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
65.81% (G:3.26% B:0.11%)
34.19% (G:8.44% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.145...+0.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 10/4.

10/6 10/4 leaves only one blot and only 11 shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCCB---A-------edabcA-:1:-1:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 85
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB---A-A-b-b-dc-bb-A:1:-1:1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.Rollout1Bar/24 11/9eq: -0.685
Player:
Opponent:
15.23% (G:0.53% B:0.02%)
84.77% (G:4.23% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.686...-0.684) - [99.6%]
Duration: 44 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/11eq: -0.686 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
15.17% (G:0.51% B:0.02%)
84.83% (G:4.16% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.687...-0.685) - [0.3%]
Duration: 45 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24 5/3eq: -0.687 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
15.14% (G:0.53% B:0.02%)
84.86% (G:4.68% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.687...-0.686) - [0.1%]
Duration: 40 minutes 29 seconds
4.playedRollout1Bar/24 4/2eq: -0.687 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
15.03% (G:0.62% B:0.02%)
84.97% (G:4.95% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.688...-0.686) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] b/24 4/2
[10] b/24 11/9
[ 9] b/24 13/11


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 4/2

We should simply play 4/2 with the 2. We want to improve our board so that if we do get the lucky shot, we have a killer board. We could have an exchange of hits reasonably soon and we might not have covered the blot on our 2 point, but we will still have a 5 prime in place. I think the benefits of improving our board strength are the most important factor here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 85
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCBB---A-A-b-b-dc-bbA-:1:-1:-1:63:7:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout18/5 8/2eq: +0.610
Player:
Opponent:
81.48% (G:3.58% B:0.08%)
18.52% (G:1.00% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.608...+0.612) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/3eq: +0.508 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
77.35% (G:4.95% B:0.09%)
22.65% (G:1.96% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.505...+0.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout18/2 5/2eq: +0.447 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent:
74.33% (G:3.96% B:0.21%)
25.67% (G:2.00% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.444...+0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 29 seconds
4.Rollout110/4 6/3eq: +0.180 (-0.430)
Player:
Opponent:
68.37% (G:5.89% B:0.31%)
31.63% (G:9.38% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.177...+0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 49 seconds
5.Rollout110/4 5/2eq: +0.151 (-0.458)
Player:
Opponent:
67.08% (G:4.93% B:0.32%)
32.92% (G:9.51% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.149...+0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds
6.Rollout110/1* eq: +0.149 (-0.461)
Player:
Opponent:
65.04% (G:9.59% B:0.18%)
34.96% (G:7.61% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.146...+0.151) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 00 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 8/2.

8/5 8/2 leaves no blots and leaves me quite a few rolls to make a needed new point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCBB---A-A-b---dd-bcA-:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB-----Bcb-c-bbAc---:1:-1:1:52:7:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout17/2 4/2eq: -0.179
Player:
Opponent:
39.71% (G:1.35% B:0.02%)
60.29% (G:2.01% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.181...-0.176) - [99.8%]
Duration: 11 minutes 44 seconds
2.playedRollout121/16 13/11eq: -0.184 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
39.45% (G:1.34% B:0.06%)
60.55% (G:2.07% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.187...-0.182) - [0.1%]
Duration: 13 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 4/2eq: -0.185 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
39.50% (G:1.26% B:0.05%)
60.50% (G:1.94% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.187...-0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 07 seconds
4.Rollout113/6eq: -0.185 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
39.42% (G:1.31% B:0.00%)
60.58% (G:1.66% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.188...-0.183) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 30 seconds
5.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.187 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
39.26% (G:1.41% B:0.02%)
60.74% (G:1.88% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.189...-0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 39 seconds
6.Rollout121/16 4/2eq: -0.192 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
38.98% (G:1.44% B:0.19%)
61.02% (G:2.39% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.194...-0.189) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 21/16 13/11
[ 8] 7/2 4/2
[ 7] 13/6
[ 2] 13/11 13/8
[ 1] 13/8 4/2
[ 1] 21/16 4/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/2 4/2

My first thought was that we will be ahead in the race by 9 pips after the roll so let’s run. But then I starting thinking that if we play 21/16 13/11, Neil hits us with 1’s and 2’s (small numbers) while his big numbers (that do not contain 1’s or 2’s) are better than normal for racing.

Also we have fewer return shots if we run than when we stay and Neil hits us loose.

It is hard to stay on the point that your opponent wants, but here the alternative 7/2 4/2 gives us a 5 point board, so I will go with that but could be very wrong.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB---A-AcbAc-bb-c---:1:-1:-1:52:7:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout111/6 11/9* eq: +0.398
Player:
Opponent:
73.12% (G:3.61% B:0.19%)
26.88% (G:3.24% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.395...+0.400) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout111/9* 8/3eq: +0.299 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
68.10% (G:3.53% B:0.13%)
31.90% (G:3.16% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.296...+0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout111/9* 10/5eq: +0.265 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
67.69% (G:3.72% B:0.22%)
32.31% (G:4.41% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.263...+0.268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/9* 11/6.

I must hit as I trail in the race and will be an underdog if I don’t hit. 11/9* leaves only a 17-1 joker. After hitting, the only sensible 5 is 11/6 leaving me in great shape if they don’t throw their joker. The seemingly safer 8/3 leaves my position so awkward that it might end up costing me as many gammon losses as leaving the 2nd blot.



USBGF Members: 53 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 101
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB---A-Aabac-cb-c--A:1:-1:-1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/2 3/2eq: +0.584
Player:
Opponent:
81.09% (G:6.08% B:0.15%)
18.91% (G:1.90% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.581...+0.587) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 9/8eq: +0.551 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
78.46% (G:3.69% B:0.22%)
21.54% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.548...+0.553) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout111/5 10/9eq: +0.507 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
76.86% (G:3.71% B:0.12%)
23.14% (G:1.49% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.505...+0.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2 3/2.

If this weren’t a gammon save score, I’d make the 2 point instantly to put that dilly on my 3 point to work. Here I needed to look at the safe 11/5 9/8. This still leaves 4 builders for my critical 4 point, but I remain with only a 3 point board and quite a few rolls play rather awkwardly next turn.

So if I leave the 17-1 shot again, how many more extra gammon losses will it cost me? I’m now not likely to lose a gammon unless the 2nd blot gets picked up as well and then both get closed out. If hit, I am 55.5% to enter and 4 of those rolls return hit. My other entries hide my 2nd blot. At most getting hit with a 54 will cost me 2% for gammon losses. Note that I have a 4 point board now which will help me stave off a blitz anytime I can hit from the bar.

Since I think that making my 2 point will add more than 2% to my winning chances, I am taking that risk.



USBGF Members: 63 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB---A-Aabab-cb-bb-A:1:-1:-1:63:7:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout111/5 9/6eq: +0.735
Player:
Opponent:
87.19% (G:7.09% B:0.18%)
12.81% (G:0.42% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.733...+0.738) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout111/8 9/3eq: +0.699 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
85.43% (G:6.10% B:0.14%)
14.57% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.696...+0.701) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/5 9/6.

Now with my big racing lead and smooth position, I am a big favorite, so I am not leaving any unnecessary shots. 11/5 9/6 looks good and retains 4 builders for my 4 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 85
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB---A-A-b-b-dc-bb-A:1:-1:1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCCB----bBba-c-bb-c-A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/21 6/4eq: -0.108
Player:
Opponent:
41.94% (G:2.64% B:0.04%)
58.06% (G:2.59% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.111...-0.105) - [96.7%]
Duration: 18 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 7/5eq: -0.112 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
41.89% (G:2.49% B:0.05%)
58.11% (G:2.70% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.115...-0.110) - [1.8%]
Duration: 16 minutes 32 seconds
3.Rollout124/21 5/3eq: -0.113 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
41.78% (G:2.58% B:0.11%)
58.22% (G:2.54% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.116...-0.110) - [1.4%]
Duration: 16 minutes 26 seconds
4.Rollout124/21 4/2eq: -0.130 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
41.02% (G:2.46% B:0.04%)
58.98% (G:3.32% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.133...-0.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout124/21 3/1eq: -0.137 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
40.66% (G:2.46% B:0.09%)
59.34% (G:3.51% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.140...-0.135) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 57 seconds
6.Rollout17/2eq: -0.201 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
36.42% (G:3.53% B:0.10%)
63.58% (G:3.28% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.204...-0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 28 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 24/21 6/4
[ 4] 24/21 5/3
[ 4] 6/4 5/2
[ 1] 7/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 6/4

We would like to win this game and also gammon Neil. If we cannot gammon Neil, we need to at least win the game. Neil has 4 builders aimed at his 7 point, and if he makes it, then it will be harder to escape, so let’s step up with 24/21. We would welcome a blot hitting contest with our side having a stronger board and a 5 prime in place.

24/21 is good for just escaping and winning the race.

We should play 6/4 with the two as we cannot move the two from the 24 point so 6/4 diversifies the two.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB----bBba-c-bbAc---:1:-1:-1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/11 13/10eq: +0.058
Player:
Opponent:
54.00% (G:1.60% B:0.05%)
46.00% (G:1.10% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.056...+0.060) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout110/5eq: -0.089 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
47.26% (G:1.42% B:0.04%)
52.74% (G:1.71% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.091...-0.087) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 13/10.

The themes for me remain the same. Try to contain their straggler and leave few if any shots. Therefore, I play 13/11 13/10.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB-----Bcb-c-bbAc---:1:-1:1:52:7:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCB---AbBbb-d-b--c--A:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 11/5eq: +0.042
Player:
Opponent:
46.16% (G:5.96% B:0.06%)
53.84% (G:2.65% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.039...+0.046) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 7/1eq: +0.008 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
44.68% (G:5.71% B:0.09%)
55.32% (G:3.28% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.004...+0.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.001 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
43.72% (G:6.23% B:0.17%)
56.28% (G:2.48% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.004...+0.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/24 11/5
[14] b/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 11/5

After the roll we will be ahead by 10 pips. After we enter on the 24 point we should play safe with 11/5 rather than 24/18 which comes out to 4 builders aimed at us.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCCB----bBbb-d-b--c-A-:1:-1:-1:53:7:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout110/5 8/5eq: -0.007
Player:
Opponent:
55.82% (G:2.97% B:0.16%)
44.18% (G:6.19% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.010...-0.004) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.031 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
51.20% (G:1.25% B:0.03%)
48.80% (G:2.73% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.033...-0.028) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 01 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5 8/5.

This is a hard choice since losing a gammon means losing the match! Therefore, making my 5 point isn’t automatic. But if I don’t make it, then I am not sure that I am even a game favorite, as I am down 2 pips and they are on roll and my containment chances are then shaky. Also plays that don’t make my 5 point leave me somewhat awkward and I could still roll something to blot and then maybe lose a gammon.

However, 3 shots may be too many. I think I get gammoned about half the time when I am hit or about 4% extra overall. At a gammon go score like this, my gammon cost is 1 as the added cost of losing a gammon is the same equity as the difference between winning and losing the game. So do I think that making my 5 point adds as much or more than 4% to my winning chances vs wimping? I think it probably does since I should be a definite favorite after making that point, as now I have real chances to contain their straggler.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCCB----bBba-c-bb-c-A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 11/22 800a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-11-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC--A-AbCbb-d-c-Ab---:1:-1:1:62:7:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 9/7eq: -0.100
Player:
Opponent:
41.67% (G:3.32% B:0.08%)
58.33% (G:3.01% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.102...-0.099) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.106 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
41.41% (G:3.29% B:0.10%)
58.59% (G:3.18% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.107...-0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout111/5 9/7eq: -0.108 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
41.36% (G:3.25% B:0.07%)
58.64% (G:3.08% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.109...-0.106) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/7 9/7
[ 5] 13/5
[ 2] 11/5 9/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 9/7

As we cannot escape, I think we should just make our 7 point with 13/7 9/7. Then we will have a 5 prime in place to contain any blot we hit.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 114
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCB---AbBbb-d-c-Ab---:1:-1:-1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout16/4* 4/3eq: -0.012
Player:
Opponent:
54.04% (G:2.59% B:0.11%)
45.96% (G:4.62% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.015...-0.008) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout16/3eq: -0.191 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:
43.98% (G:1.69% B:0.06%)
56.02% (G:3.54% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.194...-0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 09 seconds
3.Rollout18/6 3/2eq: -0.256 (-0.245)
Player:
Opponent:
40.07% (G:1.26% B:0.02%)
59.93% (G:2.88% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.259...-0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout111/10 8/6eq: -0.294 (-0.283)
Player:
Opponent:
45.82% (G:2.78% B:0.26%)
54.18% (G:10.54% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.298...-0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4*/3.

This is all about gaining pips and not leaving shots. 6/4*/3, while somewhat awkward, caters to both of my priorities.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCB---AbBbb-d-b--c--A:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC----BdCb--d-e----A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout113/8eq: +0.257
Player:
Opponent:
54.55% (G:8.30% B:0.17%)
45.45% (G:2.38% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.255...+0.259) - [86.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 41 minutes
2.xgRollout113/10 11/9eq: +0.256 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
54.49% (G:8.30% B:0.20%)
45.51% (G:2.33% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.254...+0.257) - [13.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
3.Rollout111/6eq: +0.254 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
54.49% (G:8.23% B:0.15%)
45.51% (G:2.31% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.253...+0.256) - [0.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
4.Rollout111/9 11/8eq: +0.252 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
54.34% (G:8.24% B:0.23%)
45.66% (G:2.40% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.250...+0.253) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes
5.Rollout213/10 6/4eq: +0.251 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
54.46% (G:8.08% B:0.25%)
45.54% (G:2.34% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.247...+0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 50 seconds
6.Rollout111/8 6/4eq: +0.250 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
54.28% (G:8.25% B:0.18%)
45.72% (G:2.43% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.249...+0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
7.Rollout213/11 6/3eq: +0.242 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
54.33% (G:7.77% B:0.10%)
45.67% (G:2.07% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.238...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 43 seconds
8.Rollout211/9 6/3eq: +0.240 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
54.01% (G:8.00% B:0.14%)
45.99% (G:2.37% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.237...+0.244) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 24 seconds
9.Rollout213/10 5/3eq: +0.214 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
53.24% (G:7.44% B:0.27%)
46.76% (G:2.89% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.210...+0.217) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 21 seconds
10.Rollout26/1eq: +0.207 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
52.89% (G:7.47% B:0.19%)
47.11% (G:3.26% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.204...+0.211) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 24 seconds
11.Rollout211/8 5/3eq: +0.203 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
52.63% (G:7.54% B:0.24%)
47.37% (G:3.14% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.200...+0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 15 seconds
12.Rollout211/9 5/2eq: +0.202 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
52.72% (G:7.39% B:0.09%)
47.28% (G:3.24% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.198...+0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 06 seconds
13.Rollout213/11 5/2eq: +0.202 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
52.69% (G:7.39% B:0.19%)
47.31% (G:3.10% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.198...+0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 58 seconds
14.Rollout211/8 4/2eq: +0.198 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
52.59% (G:7.29% B:0.12%)
47.41% (G:3.24% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.194...+0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 00 second
15.Rollout213/10 4/2eq: +0.196 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
52.27% (G:7.51% B:0.18%)
47.73% (G:3.25% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.192...+0.200) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 51 seconds
16.playedRollout224/21 11/9eq: +0.192 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
57.71% (G:1.86% B:0.04%)
42.29% (G:1.48% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.189...+0.194) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 22 seconds
17.Rollout25/2 4/2eq: +0.188 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
52.06% (G:7.35% B:0.12%)
47.94% (G:3.27% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.184...+0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 35 seconds
18.Rollout224/22 13/10eq: +0.187 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
56.03% (G:3.33% B:0.07%)
43.97% (G:1.72% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.184...+0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 28 seconds
19.Rollout224/22 11/8eq: +0.185 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
56.01% (G:3.26% B:0.08%)
43.99% (G:1.47% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.182...+0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 24/21 11/9
[7] 13/10 11/9
[6] 13/8
[2] 24/22 13/10
[1] 24/22 11/8
[1] 11/9 11/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10 11/9

We have to leave our checker on the 24 point alone so Neil has some awkward rolls.

Let’s diversify our checkers by playing 13/10 11/9, giving us more chances of making our 8 or 7 points.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC--A-AdCb--d-e-A----:1:-1:-1:33:7:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.051
Player:
Opponent:
55.48% (G:2.74% B:0.09%)
44.52% (G:2.91% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.050...+0.053) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes
2.xgRollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.046 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
54.65% (G:2.80% B:0.08%)
45.35% (G:2.38% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.044...+0.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout28/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: -0.025 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
50.27% (G:2.08% B:0.05%)
49.73% (G:1.51% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.027...-0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 23 seconds
4.Rollout213/10(4)eq: -0.058 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
48.77% (G:1.24% B:0.04%)
51.23% (G:1.69% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.065...-0.051) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 15 seconds
5.Rollout213/7(2)eq: -0.088 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:
47.57% (G:1.48% B:0.08%)
52.43% (G:1.95% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.090...-0.085) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 12 seconds
6.Rollout211/5(2)eq: -0.106 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:
45.72% (G:0.95% B:0.05%)
54.28% (G:1.04% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.108...-0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 01 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10(2) 6/3(2).

A very nice roll for me. 13/10(2) is automatic to block their 6’s and to apply pressure to their blot which may soon get pointed on. Now it seems automatic to make my 5 point with the remaining 3’s, but then I look at the position and see 5 stripped points and an awkward stack on my 6 point. I also see that my 11 point is now doing very little because my 5 pt has been made. So then I return those two checkers to the 8 point and look at making my 3 point. This seems to be considerably more flexible and also to have more potential to build a good 4 point board quickly.

What’s not to like about making my 3 point after 13/10(2)? Well, I don’t have my 5 point! But I can often make it soon, and my 11 point now functions as useful builders.

I prefer the more flexible 13/10(2) 6/3(2).


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC--A-AbCbb-d-c-Ab---:1:-1:1:26:7:9:0:11:10
to play 26

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBB-Ba-BeC--Ad-e----A-:1:-1:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout113/3 8/3(2)eq: +0.562
Player:
Opponent:
59.67% (G:18.45% B:0.60%)
40.33% (G:4.31% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.558...+0.567) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 06 seconds
2.playedRollout116/6 8/3(2)eq: +0.548 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
62.13% (G:15.27% B:0.43%)
37.87% (G:2.70% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.544...+0.552) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout116/11 13/3 8/3eq: +0.538 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
61.54% (G:15.35% B:0.54%)
38.46% (G:2.24% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.533...+0.542) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout111/6(2) 8/3(2)eq: +0.533 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
58.68% (G:17.95% B:0.30%)
41.32% (G:4.14% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.528...+0.537) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 03 seconds
5.Rollout116/6 13/3eq: +0.494 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
60.51% (G:14.21% B:0.36%)
39.49% (G:2.77% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.490...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90064475
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 16/6 8/3(2)
[10] 16/11 13/3 8/3
[ 4] 16/6 13/3
[ 2] 13/3 8/3(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/3 8/3(2)

If this were a unlimited game or a normal match score then after playing 8/3(2), we should just play 16/6. But at 4 away 2 away with the cube owned by Neil, we have to consider 13/3. 13/3 must increase our Gammons won. Does it increase our Gammons lost? We do not care if it does, Gammons lost are irrelevant, if we lose the game we lose the match so Gammons lost do not count.

I would not have thought that there would be much in it, but we want to get as much equity as possible, so let’s play 13/3 with the final two 5’s as it must increase the Gammons won.



Neil Kazaross: 52 16/11 13/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC----BdCb--d-e----A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-C-C--BdC--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.18% (G:18.01% B:1.02%) 55.35% (G:18.67% B:1.33%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.82% (G:13.88% B:1.67%) 44.65% (G:14.93% B:2.11%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.047 +0.717
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.646 (-0.071)±0.013 (+0.633..+0.659)
played Double/Take:+0.717±0.014 (+0.703..+0.731)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.283)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24002543
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Double
[12] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

I refer to 4 away 2 away as Super Gammon Go, and conversely 2 away 4 away as Super Gammon Save.

At Super Gammon Go, we are looking for Blitzing or Priming positions with high volatility. When we find one of those positions at Super Gammon Go, we should double.

Here we have priming and blitzing potential. It is easier to blitz when your opponent has only one checker back as they cannot anchor. We lose our market and hit in the outfield with 44, 22, 53 and 62. We also lose our market with 66, 55 and probably 33. This is more than enough to double at this score.

Neil Kazaross takes.

A fine score-based cube but one I cannot even dream to pass. The doubling window is very wide at this score where there are some gammons floating around. Note that by doubling me, they render the extra cost of gammons they may lose as meaningless.

Neil’s Rule of 80 is for this exact score. If the number of total wins the trailer can achieve plus their gammon wins is over 80% then the leader should pass. In this position there’s no way that I can expect to lose 60% of the games nor can I expect to lose 20% gammons. Therefore, I have a trivial take.

When should the trailer cube in the early game at 4-away, 2-away? A good rule of thumb is that they usually want to cube when there’s reasonable gammon chances and the total is 70% or more.

Note that the total at the start of the game is 64%. 50% wins plus 14% gammons and they clearly are favorites here with some market losers.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 65 24/13
USBGF Members: 53 24/16*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---BBB-B--BeC--Ad-e----A-:1:-1:-1:63:7:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.826
Player:
Opponent:
35.25% (G:7.64% B:0.82%)
64.75% (G:26.55% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.832...-0.820) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.840 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
32.79% (G:8.76% B:1.13%)
67.21% (G:24.77% B:1.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.845...-0.834) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90064475
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16.

Not a nice 6 for me, but I don’t want to leave a second blot vulnerable so out I come with B/16. 11 rolls miss and maybe I can survive. If hit I hope to enter and just play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBB-Ba-BeC--Ad-e----A-:1:-1:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:22:7:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.497
Player:
Opponent:
53.20% (G:14.76% B:0.91%)
46.80% (G:13.65% B:1.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.485...+0.509) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/4(2)eq: +0.381 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
50.55% (G:14.18% B:0.92%)
49.45% (G:15.50% B:2.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.366...+0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout124/22(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.352 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:
51.12% (G:12.30% B:0.97%)
48.88% (G:11.87% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.339...+0.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 8/4 6/4eq: +0.305 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
48.71% (G:13.67% B:0.90%)
51.29% (G:16.46% B:2.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.291...+0.319) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
5.Rollout124/22(2) 13/11(2)eq: +0.284 (-0.213)
Player:
Opponent:
50.33% (G:11.66% B:0.64%)
49.67% (G:12.55% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.271...+0.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
6.Rollout124/20 6/4(2)eq: +0.281 (-0.216)
Player:
Opponent:
50.39% (G:11.92% B:1.15%)
49.61% (G:14.74% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.268...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24002543
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 13/11(2) 6/4(2)
[ 1] 24/22(2) 13/11(2)
[ 1] 24/22(2) 6/4(2)
[ 1] 24/20(2)
[ 1] 13/5*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11(2) 6/4(2)

The normal reply to 54 split with a 22 is 13/11(2) 6/4(2). This wins the most games and the most gammons.

At 4 away 2 away this move becomes even more correct.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-C--BdC---d-e----B-:0:0:-1:65:7:9:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 20/9.

My blot on the 20 point is now in mortal danger so I will move it to the 9 point, hopefully out of harm’s way and where it is a builder.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-C-C--BdC--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BEA--C------------edaab--:1:-1:1:53:5:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout16/1 3/Offeq: +0.928
Player:
Opponent:
96.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.928...+0.928) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9.3 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: +0.923 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
96.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.923...+0.923) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.9 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 6/1 3/0
[ 1] 6/3 6/1



Neil Kazaross: 63 6/0 3/0
USBGF Members: 22 2/0(4)
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 62 6/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 55 6/1 5/0(3)
USBGF Members: 52 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 32


USBGF Members win two points, and Neil Kazaross leads 2-away/4-away.



Neil Kazaross: 54 24/20 13/8

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:22:7:9:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 40
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AFA--D------------fcbab--:1:-1:1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/1 2/Offeq: +0.881
Player:
Opponent:
94.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.881...+0.881) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59.8 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/1eq: +0.868 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
93.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
6.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.868...+0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.3 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 6/1 2/0
[ 1] 6/4 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1 2/0

I like the saying ‘if in doubt, rip them off’. I have no doubt here, so we should just play 2/off.

To win this game we need to take all our checkers off before Neil does, and we have just rolled a number that lets us take a checker off, so take a checker off.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BEA--C------------fcbab--:1:-1:-1:41:5:9:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/5 4/Offeq: -0.939
Player:
Opponent:
3.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.939...-0.939) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30.0 seconds
2.Rollout14/Off 2/1eq: -0.939 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.939...-0.939) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26.5 seconds
3.Rollout15/Offeq: -0.941 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.941...-0.941) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.3 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 4/0.

I’ll take a checker off, and then the ace hardly matters, but I cannot win this game without 55 or 66 or both, so I’ll play 6/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BEA--C------------edaab--:1:-1:1:53:5:9:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CAB-H---a--------ecbaba-:1:-1:1:44:5:9:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout16/2(2) 4/Off(2)eq: +0.758
Player:
Opponent:
87.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.758...+0.758) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13.9 seconds
2.Rollout16/2(3) 4/Offeq: +0.752 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
87.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.752...+0.752) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.0 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 6/2(2) 4/0(2)
[ 3] 6/2(3) 4/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/2(2) 4/0(2)

We need to play 4/off(2) 6/2(2). We should just take off the maximum number of checkers unless there is a really good reason not to.

Now any 5 or 4 will not take a checker off and cause wastage by moving to the 1 or 2 points – until we clear our 6 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 49
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--EA--F---a--------ecbaba-:1:-1:-1:31:5:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout115/12 6/5eq: -0.865
Player:
Opponent:
6.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.865...-0.865) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6.3 seconds
2.playedRollout115/11eq: -0.865 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
6.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.865...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3.1 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/11.

I’m far behind in pips and fully in desperation mode. 15/11 lets me take off 3 checkers with 55 and doesn’t seem worse if I roll the needed boxes. It does play a bit worse if I roll 44 but I need to cater to huge rolls.



USBGF Members: 54 6/2 6/1
Neil Kazaross: 51 11/6 1/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 40
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AFA--D------------fcbab--:1:-1:1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10