USBGF OLM 2017-08-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 187
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abCcBDCB-------a--abbbA-a-:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout122/18* 18/12eq: +0.106
Player:
Opponent:
55.29% (G:41.58% B:23.54%)
44.71% (G:0.87% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.100...+0.112) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout122/12eq: +0.058 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
52.91% (G:36.79% B:17.53%)
47.09% (G:1.56% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.053...+0.063) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28634198
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 22/18*/12
[13] 22/12


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/18*/12

We’re out of there! The only decision we need to make is whether to hit or not on the way.

He’s so far behind in the pip count that if he rolls half-decently from the bar, there’s no way we can bust his timing by making him run out of pips to play. But we can hope that he rolls poorly instead, say by entering quickly but then rolling some low numbers that force him to bury or at least misplace some of his forward checkers. In that case we’re glad we got rid of even the few playable pips he had tied up in that checker. And even if he rolls well, we have delayed his prime-building by removing a slot he had on a point he clearly wants. He’s still favored to make a four point prime, but it will take him longer, and that’s good. There’s also another reason to hit, which is that if he fans long enough, we might be able to clear our bar point safely, or at most leaving only indirect shots.



Neil Kazaross: 61 b/24


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 204
             
11 point match
              pip: 78
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=acCcBDCB----A--a---bbb--a-:1:-1:1:61:9:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCcBDCB-------a--abbb-aaA:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23* 23/22eq: +0.062
Player:
Opponent:
53.09% (G:37.46% B:20.21%)
46.91% (G:2.42% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.056...+0.067) - [100.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23* 5/4eq: +0.029 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
51.47% (G:36.24% B:17.83%)
48.53% (G:2.84% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.024...+0.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14983862
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/23*/22
[ 5] b/23* 5/4


Mary Hickey recommends: b/23*/22

It’s a shame we have to hit either blot, but since we do, we might as well knock off the slot he’s got sitting on the better of the two inside points. That means bar/23*, then continue on to the 22 point so we don’t get blocked behind his block on any more rolls than we absolutely have to be. I expect this to be unanimous today.

(There! I got through a discussion about not hitting on his ace point without once mentioning Zombies!)



Neil Kazaross: 55 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 187
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abCcBDCB-------a--abbbA-a-:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 171
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCcBDCB----a-a----bbbAaa-:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout122/15eq: +0.091
Player:
Opponent:
54.53% (G:34.46% B:14.63%)
45.47% (G:2.09% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.085...+0.096) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout122/17 6/4eq: +0.054 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
52.72% (G:33.22% B:15.00%)
47.28% (G:3.14% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.049...+0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 26 seconds
3.Rollout17/5 7/2eq: +0.034 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
51.71% (G:32.61% B:13.15%)
48.29% (G:2.60% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.029...+0.039) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14983862
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 22/15
[ 2] 7/5 7/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/15

We’re trying to run, so that’s what we need to do! 22/15 stands out because it gets us moving, and leaves our spares on the high points. That’s important to avoid rootation if we get hit. If not, we’re closer to home and that’s good, too.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 171
             
11 point match
              pip: 81
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCcBDCB----a-aA---bbb-aa-:1:-1:-1:43:9:9:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/10* 11/7eq: -0.067
Player:
Opponent:
46.65% (G:2.73% B:0.14%)
53.35% (G:35.53% B:17.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.069...-0.065) - [80.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout113/10* 10/6eq: -0.068 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
46.58% (G:2.83% B:0.19%)
53.42% (G:34.73% B:15.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.071...-0.066) - [20.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14983862
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10* 11/7.

While there’s only a small chance to contain my opponents after hitting, I still think it is worth a try and that I should hit 13/10*. But the main reason to hit is to hope that they hit me and give me even more timing for my backgame.

After 13/10*, two 4’s are possible. 10/6 leaves one fewer blot which isn’t really important here. 11/7 slots the bar point and looks to be automatic when playing a deep backgame at DMP. However, the drawback is that I might get a few blots hit and then they can easily clear their bar point. If I have a couple checkers on the bar I won’t be able to hit any blot they may be forced to leave on their bar point. 11/7 also makes it more likely that I can make my bar point later.

Since I am playing a deep backgame at DMP, 13/10x 11/7 looks right to me.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCcBDCB-------a--abbb-aaA:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 180
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBdBCCBB-----a----bbb-aaA:1:-1:1:33:9:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 8/5 8/2eq: +0.136
Player:
Opponent:
56.82% (G:36.61% B:15.67%)
43.18% (G:1.72% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.134...+0.139) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 7/4(2) 5/2eq: +0.131 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
56.53% (G:36.21% B:15.95%)
43.47% (G:1.83% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.128...+0.133) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14983862
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] b/22 8/2 5/2
[ 2] b/22 7/4(2) 5/2


Mary Hickey recommends: b/22 8/5 8/2

Another day, another normal-looking play, just clearing from the back and hoping nothing weird happens that makes us “root” a blot on our bar point. Bar/22 8/5 8/2 is unsatisfactory, putting a spare on a point that doesn’t need it (the 2) and leaving a possible root-out double shot later on our bar point. But the alternative I see that makes sense, bar/22 7/4(2) 5/2, solves the bar point problem but strips the 5 point, very bad! We also can root on the 8 point, though at the moment I’m not seeing how it would happen soon. If we do, at least it’s a single shot instead of a double. I like bar/22 8/5 8/2 to keep the bar point in case it still turns out to be more of an asset than a liability (for example, if he rolls a 44 soon, or a series of small rolls including 4s) and because we really, seriously need at least one spare on that 5 point for later.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 180
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCdBDCB------a----bbbAaa-:1:-1:-1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout122/13eq: -0.092
Player:
Opponent:
45.41% (G:2.00% B:0.17%)
54.59% (G:34.95% B:15.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.097...-0.087) - [99.6%]
Duration: 29 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout122/17 11/7eq: -0.101 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
44.93% (G:1.98% B:0.11%)
55.07% (G:36.17% B:16.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.107...-0.096) - [0.4%]
Duration: 28 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14983862
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/13.

22/13 frees a spare checker, which is very important, and gives me some outfield coverage.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 171
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCcBDCB----a-a----bbbAaa-:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 106
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBcBBBCB-A---a----bbbaaaA:1:-1:1:22:9:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout1Bar/23* 10/6 7/5eq: +0.177
Player:
Opponent:
58.86% (G:39.17% B:17.56%)
41.14% (G:1.45% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.172...+0.182) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23* 7/5(3)eq: +0.156 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
57.81% (G:40.10% B:21.23%)
42.19% (G:1.43% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.150...+0.162) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 15 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/23* 10/4eq: +0.153 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
57.64% (G:38.27% B:18.19%)
42.36% (G:2.04% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.148...+0.158) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 54 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/23* 10/8 7/5(2)eq: +0.143 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
57.15% (G:38.39% B:19.02%)
42.85% (G:1.63% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.138...+0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/23* 8/6(2) 7/5eq: +0.139 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
56.97% (G:38.94% B:20.10%)
43.03% (G:1.65% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.134...+0.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 04 seconds
6.Rollout1Bar/23* 8/4 7/5eq: +0.138 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
56.92% (G:39.64% B:20.66%)
43.08% (G:2.06% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.133...+0.144) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 34 seconds
7.Rollout1Bar/23* 8/6 8/4eq: +0.125 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
56.23% (G:37.88% B:18.68%)
43.77% (G:1.96% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.119...+0.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] b/23* 10/6 7/5
[ 1] b/23* 10/4


Mary Hickey recommends: b/23* 10/6 7/5

The natural-looking bar/23* 10/6 7/5 looks right, if only because any other alternative either looks too awkward, leaves another blot hanging, or does both. It’s good that we’re putting a spare on the 5 point for the long term.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 184
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abBcBCCBB-----a----bbbaAa-:1:-1:-1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout1Bar/22 11/10eq: -0.191
Player:
Opponent:
40.45% (G:1.87% B:0.14%)
59.55% (G:37.96% B:16.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.193...-0.189) - [95.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/22 3/2*eq: -0.194 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
40.32% (G:1.64% B:0.09%)
59.68% (G:40.19% B:19.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.196...-0.191) - [5.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 43 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/22 4/3eq: -0.214 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
39.30% (G:1.66% B:0.12%)
60.70% (G:39.24% B:18.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.219...-0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/24 11/8eq: -0.217 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
39.17% (G:2.12% B:0.10%)
60.83% (G:39.78% B:18.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.222...-0.211) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout2Bar/22 6/5eq: -0.239 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
38.04% (G:1.01% B:0.08%)
61.96% (G:41.59% B:21.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.245...-0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 19 seconds
6.Rollout2Bar/22 5/4eq: -0.247 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
37.63% (G:1.19% B:0.12%)
62.37% (G:42.10% B:20.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.253...-0.242) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 58 seconds
7.Rollout2Bar/24 6/3eq: -0.250 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
37.49% (G:1.52% B:0.10%)
62.51% (G:41.23% B:19.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.255...-0.245) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 06 seconds
8.Rollout2Bar/24 5/2*eq: -0.266 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
36.69% (G:0.81% B:0.05%)
63.31% (G:47.56% B:30.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.274...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 40 seconds
9.Rollout2Bar/24 4/1eq: -0.311 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
34.44% (G:1.12% B:0.03%)
65.56% (G:41.93% B:19.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.316...-0.306) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 3/2*.

Same plan. I will try to get hit, hopefully on the ace point and then hope to dance or enter with a 6.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 180
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBdBCCBB-----a----bbb-aaA:1:-1:1:33:9:9:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bAcBBCCB----Aa----cbbbA--:1:-1:1:43:9:9:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout113/6eq: +0.310
Player:
Opponent:
65.52% (G:37.06% B:13.32%)
34.48% (G:2.55% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.305...+0.315) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 7/4eq: +0.267 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
63.34% (G:32.14% B:10.25%)
36.66% (G:7.77% B:1.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.262...+0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 48 seconds
3.playedRollout113/10 6/2eq: +0.260 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
63.00% (G:36.28% B:15.38%)
37.00% (G:3.17% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.255...+0.265) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 47 seconds
4.Rollout17/4 6/2eq: +0.247 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
62.37% (G:35.67% B:15.60%)
37.63% (G:2.90% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.243...+0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 13/10 6/2 [coin flip!]
[10] 7/4 6/2
[ 5] 13/6
[ 1] 13/9 7/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/6

Covering the 2 point isn’t very important, though we’d do it if there were a clean way to do so. Where are the ghosts hiding now? If we get the second checker hit without a lot of playable pips remaining to use if we enter and can’t get out fast, we could lose a piece of our block after a turn or two, so I’d rather not have a second blot out where he can hit it with tempo. It’s not just the immediate 61 (after 13/10 6/2) that’s a problem, but also 64 that come out and hits inside, and even rolls like 54, 31, etc. that hit inside but leave our blot hanging if we don’t enter, giving him another shot at either rolling the joker to hit it, or rolling any 6 and getting to sit there an wait for another chance at it. So today watching out for ghosts looks good, and 13/6 is a way of not opening the creaking door that might let them in.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 104
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBcBBBCB-A---a----cbbbA--:1:-1:-1:42:9:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout16/2* 3/1eq: -0.246
Player:
Opponent:
37.71% (G:1.61% B:0.11%)
62.29% (G:40.81% B:18.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.252...-0.240) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout111/7 4/2*eq: -0.274 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
36.30% (G:1.71% B:0.15%)
63.70% (G:39.13% B:16.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.279...-0.269) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout111/9 6/2*eq: -0.278 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
36.11% (G:2.75% B:0.45%)
63.89% (G:35.68% B:14.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.283...-0.273) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 09 seconds
4.Rollout16/4 6/2*eq: -0.302 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
34.89% (G:1.76% B:0.19%)
65.11% (G:38.64% B:15.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.307...-0.297) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 44 seconds
5.Rollout111/7 6/4eq: -0.307 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
34.63% (G:2.49% B:0.22%)
65.37% (G:34.76% B:12.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.312...-0.303) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 54 seconds
6.Rollout15/1 4/2*eq: -0.317 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
34.17% (G:0.97% B:0.03%)
65.83% (G:44.12% B:22.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.322...-0.311) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 00 second
7.Rollout16/2* 5/3eq: -0.324 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
33.82% (G:1.53% B:0.13%)
66.18% (G:40.77% B:17.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.329...-0.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 34 seconds
8.Rollout111/7 3/1eq: -0.332 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
33.38% (G:1.63% B:0.17%)
66.62% (G:37.78% B:14.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.337...-0.328) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 55 seconds
9.Rollout16/2* 4/2eq: -0.347 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
32.65% (G:1.82% B:0.14%)
67.35% (G:39.12% B:15.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.352...-0.342) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 23 seconds
10.Rollout111/7 5/3eq: -0.356 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
32.21% (G:1.62% B:0.22%)
67.79% (G:36.48% B:12.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.360...-0.351) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 16 seconds
11.Rollout111/5eq: -0.362 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
31.90% (G:2.14% B:0.25%)
68.10% (G:33.23% B:11.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.367...-0.357) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 07 seconds
12.Rollout16/4 5/1eq: -0.392 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:
30.40% (G:1.22% B:0.05%)
69.60% (G:37.61% B:14.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.397...-0.387) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 52 seconds
13.Rollout111/9 5/1eq: -0.397 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
30.13% (G:1.50% B:0.06%)
69.87% (G:36.15% B:12.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.402...-0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 34 seconds
14.Rollout15/1 3/1eq: -0.445 (-0.199)
Player:
Opponent:
27.74% (G:0.87% B:0.03%)
72.26% (G:37.56% B:12.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.450...-0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 24 seconds
15.Rollout15/3 5/1eq: -0.472 (-0.226)
Player:
Opponent:
26.39% (G:1.07% B:0.03%)
73.61% (G:36.78% B:11.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.477...-0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 12 seconds
16.Rollout124/22 6/2*eq: -0.492 (-0.246)
Player:
Opponent:
25.41% (G:3.40% B:0.30%)
74.59% (G:49.42% B:7.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.496...-0.487) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 53 seconds
17.Rollout124/22 11/7eq: -0.560 (-0.314)
Player:
Opponent:
22.00% (G:1.98% B:0.20%)
78.00% (G:52.53% B:5.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.564...-0.556) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 33 seconds
18.Rollout124/22 5/1eq: -0.662 (-0.416)
Player:
Opponent:
16.92% (G:1.14% B:0.11%)
83.08% (G:58.36% B:8.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.665...-0.658) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/2* 3/1.

Now I can take advantage of the fact that it is DMP, so I suffer no extra losses for a gammon or backgammon. Therefore, I’ll make a backgame play, hoping to gain some more timing by dancing a while when hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 106
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBcBBBCB-A---a----bbbaaaA:1:-1:1:22:9:9:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 177
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacBBCCCA---A-----cbaba--:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout113/12 7/5eq: +0.470
Player:
Opponent:
73.50% (G:44.29% B:13.00%)
26.50% (G:1.69% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.468...+0.472) - [83.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout113/10eq: +0.468 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
73.41% (G:44.44% B:12.59%)
26.59% (G:1.58% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.466...+0.470) - [9.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
3.playedRollout18/5eq: +0.468 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
73.38% (G:44.13% B:12.92%)
26.62% (G:1.72% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.465...+0.470) - [4.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
4.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: +0.467 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
73.37% (G:44.13% B:12.73%)
26.63% (G:1.74% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.465...+0.469) - [2.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
5.Rollout113/11 7/6eq: +0.466 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
73.31% (G:44.14% B:13.22%)
26.69% (G:1.54% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.464...+0.468) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes
6.Rollout27/4eq: +0.463 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
73.13% (G:43.73% B:13.40%)
26.87% (G:1.82% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.457...+0.468) - [0.5%]
Duration: 28 minutes 45 seconds
7.Rollout213/12 6/4eq: +0.462 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
73.09% (G:43.73% B:12.94%)
26.91% (G:1.64% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.457...+0.467) - [0.1%]
Duration: 30 minutes 00 second
8.Rollout213/12 8/6eq: +0.459 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
72.95% (G:44.12% B:12.52%)
27.05% (G:1.78% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.454...+0.464) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 19 seconds
9.Rollout27/5 6/5eq: +0.458 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
72.91% (G:43.78% B:12.42%)
27.09% (G:1.60% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.453...+0.463) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 07 seconds
10.Rollout213/11 8/7eq: +0.457 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
72.84% (G:44.07% B:13.24%)
27.16% (G:1.59% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.452...+0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 20 seconds
11.Rollout28/7 6/4eq: +0.451 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
72.56% (G:43.36% B:12.21%)
27.44% (G:1.66% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.446...+0.456) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 55 seconds
12.Rollout28/6 7/6eq: +0.448 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
72.38% (G:43.83% B:11.98%)
27.62% (G:1.81% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.443...+0.453) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 58 seconds
13.Rollout29/8 7/5eq: +0.426 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
71.31% (G:41.75% B:11.20%)
28.69% (G:1.43% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.422...+0.431) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 45 seconds
14.Rollout29/6eq: +0.422 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
71.12% (G:42.21% B:10.99%)
28.88% (G:1.56% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.418...+0.427) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 39 seconds
15.Rollout213/11 9/8eq: +0.416 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
70.79% (G:41.43% B:10.50%)
29.21% (G:1.45% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.411...+0.420) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 22 seconds
16.Rollout213/12 9/7eq: +0.416 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
70.78% (G:41.88% B:11.10%)
29.22% (G:1.90% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.411...+0.420) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 8/5
[ 5] 13/10
[ 3] 9/6
[ 1] 13/12 9/7
[ 1] 13/12 7/5
[ 1] 9/8 7/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5

As long as we leave the 9 point slotted, it’s not terribly important what we do. I voted for 8/5 because if we end up bearing off against the 1+3 backgame, we definitely want at least one spare on the 5 point, if not more. The 5 point tends to produce shots for the opponent in this backgame because both 5s and 3s play off that point, and there are no other options for either of those numbers. Putting a spare there when we can do it at no cost that I can see, makes sense.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 177
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacBCCCBA---A-----cbaba--:1:-1:-1:66:9:9:0:11:10
to play 66

1.xgRollout122/16*(3) 16/10eq: -0.433
Player:
Opponent:
28.37% (G:4.33% B:0.62%)
71.63% (G:43.29% B:19.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.438...-0.427) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 43 seconds
2.playedRollout122/16*(2) 16/4eq: -0.460 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
26.98% (G:5.48% B:0.53%)
73.02% (G:37.17% B:11.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.466...-0.455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/16*(2) 16/4.

This play would be automatic at a normal score since if I do anything except hitting and covering I will lose too many extra gammons and backgammons. But at DMP bringing out 3 checkers could be better as I gain considerably if missed. This 66 gives me some chances to win going forwards and harms my backgame chances. But it just looks too weird to me to not make my 4 point.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 116
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-baaBCCCBa---A-----cbbba-A:1:-1:-1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.Rollout124/22 6/1eq: -0.460
Player:
Opponent:
26.98% (G:4.44% B:0.44%)
73.02% (G:41.40% B:9.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.462...-0.458) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 40 minutes
2.playedRollout124/22 16/11eq: -0.469 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
26.56% (G:5.50% B:0.53%)
73.44% (G:33.41% B:5.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.470...-0.467) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 16/11.

This is automatic at a normal score but is difficult at DMP since it may be best to still play in backgame mode with 24/22 6/1. But since when my opponents enter they will often attack inside their board and I may end up with no backgame I will preserve forward options with 24/22 16/11 and hope for covering my 2 point and a quick 6.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 146
             
11 point match
              pip: 116
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aabBCCCB----Aa----cbbba-A:1:-1:1:32:9:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 189
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacABCCC-A--Ba-a--bbab---:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout113/9 10/4eq: +0.280
Player:
Opponent:
64.01% (G:39.49% B:12.41%)
35.99% (G:3.33% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.275...+0.286) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 8/4eq: +0.233 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
61.67% (G:38.41% B:10.31%)
38.33% (G:3.39% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.228...+0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout110/4 6/2*eq: +0.227 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
61.36% (G:38.01% B:13.73%)
38.64% (G:2.55% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.222...+0.233) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout110/4 8/4eq: +0.222 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
61.10% (G:37.43% B:10.01%)
38.90% (G:3.23% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.217...+0.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 13/9 10/4
[ 6] 10/4 6/2*
[ 5] 10/4 8/4
[ 1] 13/7 8/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/9 10/4

We have a choice of how to cover the 4 point, but the better way becomes clear when we consider what a super option we have with the 4 when we play the 6 10/4. Playing that 4 13/9 means that if he escapes his lone spare checker that’s at the edge of our prime, he is obliged to reset our timing by hitting. This looks more important than trying to prevent his making the 2 point now, even though he’d still be better off with the 2+3 than the 1+3. Better to bust the timing of whichever game he has, than to worry this turn about which one it is.

If he doesn’t hit, that’s even better, because if we get a small 4, we may cover the 9 point. Even if we can only hold it for one turn, it’s well worth making it, because it may prevent his running a 6 for one possibly critical roll.

Also, one of our motivations for hitting anywhere is gone now, which was to buy some time to make our 4 point before he did. We have it now! And then, too, if he rolls combinations of 5s and 4s, we certainly want to let him play them, not stay out. That means the inside hit, though not out of the question, is lower priority than before.

We don’t actually want him to hit us this turn, but if he rolls a 6, it’s the lesser of two evils. Letting him run freely might possibly save his timing just enough that we’re in big trouble if we leave a double or triple shot and get hit while bearing in. But his timing is getting so bad that if he is forced to hit us now, he might melt his lower board into blots, trying to force us to hit him on our way on and out of his board. When gammons and backgammons count, that strategy tends to be questionable, especially for humans because of the great difficulty in playing a containment ending where you have to rebuild your board starting from just two or three low points. But here at DMP, he just might want to bring on a Zombie Apocalypse!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 189
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacBBCCCA---Aa-a--bbab---:1:-1:-1:33:9:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout111/2 9/6eq: -0.385
Player:
Opponent:
30.77% (G:1.51% B:0.23%)
69.23% (G:42.52% B:13.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.390...-0.380) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 9/3eq: -0.410 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
29.48% (G:1.27% B:0.05%)
70.52% (G:43.50% B:15.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.416...-0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/2 9/6.

This bad 33 makes my shaky timing worse. 11/2 9/6 will kill 6’s if my opponents make their 9 point so this looks like the play to best try to salvage some timing.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 177
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacBBCCCA---A-----cbaba--:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 121
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bac-BDCC---aBa-A-abb-b---:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout116/10 6/4eq: +0.268
Player:
Opponent:
63.39% (G:37.57% B:9.61%)
36.61% (G:4.33% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.262...+0.273) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
2.Rollout116/14* 8/2*eq: +0.252 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
62.58% (G:40.30% B:14.51%)
37.42% (G:3.89% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.245...+0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
3.Rollout18/2* 6/4eq: +0.242 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
62.09% (G:35.09% B:9.31%)
37.91% (G:7.81% B:1.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.236...+0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
4.Rollout116/10 13/11eq: +0.195 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
59.76% (G:35.56% B:9.57%)
40.24% (G:4.52% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.190...+0.200) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 14 seconds
5.Rollout116/10 7/5eq: +0.193 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
59.64% (G:35.49% B:9.34%)
40.36% (G:4.33% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.188...+0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 31 seconds
6.Rollout18/2* 7/5eq: +0.186 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
59.28% (G:35.60% B:12.17%)
40.72% (G:5.31% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.180...+0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
7.Rollout113/5eq: +0.176 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
58.80% (G:35.84% B:9.72%)
41.20% (G:5.27% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.171...+0.181) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 03 seconds
8.Rollout116/10 8/6eq: +0.175 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
58.75% (G:34.14% B:8.63%)
41.25% (G:5.11% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.170...+0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 51 seconds
9.Rollout113/7 6/4eq: +0.175 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
58.74% (G:32.80% B:7.42%)
41.26% (G:9.22% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.169...+0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
10.Rollout113/11 8/2*eq: +0.165 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
58.24% (G:34.19% B:10.23%)
41.76% (G:7.35% B:1.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.159...+0.171) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
11.Rollout116/8eq: +0.160 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
58.02% (G:34.31% B:9.40%)
41.98% (G:5.03% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.155...+0.165) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 46 seconds
12.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: +0.156 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
57.78% (G:35.16% B:9.78%)
42.22% (G:5.17% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.150...+0.161) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 20 seconds
13.Rollout116/14* 13/7eq: +0.147 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
57.33% (G:37.21% B:13.50%)
42.67% (G:4.65% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.139...+0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
14.Rollout116/14* 14/8eq: +0.125 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
56.27% (G:35.97% B:12.18%)
43.73% (G:4.26% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.119...+0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 16/10 6/4
[8] 16/10 7/5
[5] 16/14* 8/2*
[2] 16/14*/8
[1] 16/8
[1] 16/10 13/11
[1] 16/10 8/6


Mary Hickey recommends: 16/14* 8/2*

We’d still like to get our 4 point ahead of him, and I suppose we could slot it up today, the way the bot says we should have done yesterday. I never seriously considered the slot with our 21, and though I’m looking at it today, I see something I like better.

The double hit, 16/14* 8/2*, appears to be the kind of distraction play we need to keep him from getting our 4 point ahead of us. It also picks off one of this outfield checkers while leaving us well set to bag the other one also, which can move us along the way toward overtiming his backgame. Finally, it prevents his rolling his game forward to the 2+3 backgame, which would be better than the 1+3, especially while we are still bearing in. Here’s the rule I live by when I have a choice between these two good backgames: The 2+3 tends to beat the 1+3 when the opponent still has their 8 point to clear. So conversely (or is that inversely?) we’d rather he doesn’t get to have that preferable game if we can prevent it.

Our blot we leave on the 2 point if we hit isn’t that big a deal. If he hits it, but we get our 4 point, we’ve made a great trade. If he hits it with a roll that would otherwise have allowed him to make our 4 point, it’s still all right because at least he didn’t get it on this go-round. Maybe we’ll still get to it first, who knows? And the semi-dead checker that he hit and turned into a zombie could be the one that eats his timing, even if it doesn’t eat his brains :0)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacABCCC-A-aBa---abb-b---:1:-1:-1:43:9:9:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/9 7/4eq: -0.291
Player:
Opponent:
35.46% (G:2.71% B:0.35%)
64.54% (G:39.26% B:11.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.296...-0.285) - [75.9%]
Duration: 48 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: -0.295 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
35.27% (G:2.55% B:0.29%)
64.73% (G:40.26% B:11.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.300...-0.289) - [14.8%]
Duration: 43 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout111/4eq: -0.295 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
35.23% (G:2.47% B:0.31%)
64.77% (G:40.61% B:13.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.301...-0.290) - [9.3%]
Duration: 46 minutes 25 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 11/7eq: -0.306 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
34.69% (G:2.39% B:0.30%)
65.31% (G:40.13% B:12.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.312...-0.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 38 seconds
5.Rollout124/21* 11/7eq: -0.317 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
34.13% (G:6.83% B:1.02%)
65.87% (G:36.41% B:6.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.323...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 7/4.

My opponents did well to slot here, and I have considerable doubts as to whether I should hit it. If I hit, I improve their timing and after 11/7 I will be trying to fight a battle of primes with a broken 4 prime with one checker back vs a solid 4 prime with 6 checkers behind it. Although they will often enter and hit me back on their 4 point and I may re-hit, I don’t see winning very often going forwards. However, if I had my 4 point rather than my 3 point and could make a solid 4 prime, I’d hit. In addition, by hitting I still may play this as a backgame, but those checkers I do hit, may come back to haunt me if they end up making a prime from the rear.

So it looks close to me, since my chances to time a backgame after 13/9 7/4 aren’t that good. I’d much prefer my position for backgame purposes if I was 20 or 30 pips further behind. As things stand now, by choosing to not hit I am hoping that the USBGF Members roll some large numbers while I roll small.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 189
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacABCCC-A--Ba-a--bbab---:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-02

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 202
             
11 point match
              pip: 124
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbb-BCBEa--aB--A-abb-b---:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.Rollout18/7 6/4eq: +0.277
Player:
Opponent:
63.86% (G:35.76% B:9.19%)
36.14% (G:5.41% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.271...+0.283) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.Rollout116/15 6/4eq: +0.257 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
62.85% (G:35.66% B:9.38%)
37.15% (G:6.03% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.251...+0.263) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout113/12* 6/4eq: +0.254 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
62.69% (G:38.23% B:10.37%)
37.31% (G:6.36% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.247...+0.261) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
4.Rollout116/14 8/7eq: +0.226 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
61.30% (G:36.17% B:9.38%)
38.70% (G:4.75% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.220...+0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
5.playedRollout18/7 8/6eq: +0.223 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
61.17% (G:36.99% B:10.15%)
38.83% (G:4.26% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.217...+0.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
6.Rollout18/5eq: +0.220 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
61.01% (G:36.00% B:9.33%)
38.99% (G:5.29% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.214...+0.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
7.Rollout116/15 8/6eq: +0.216 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
60.80% (G:35.93% B:9.27%)
39.20% (G:4.75% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.210...+0.222) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
8.Rollout113/12* 8/6eq: +0.200 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
59.99% (G:37.61% B:12.04%)
40.01% (G:4.88% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.193...+0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
9.Rollout113/12* 12/10eq: +0.197 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
59.87% (G:37.25% B:11.71%)
40.13% (G:5.15% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.191...+0.204) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
10.Rollout116/13eq: +0.194 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
59.70% (G:35.38% B:7.87%)
40.30% (G:5.43% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.188...+0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 04 seconds
11.Rollout113/11 13/12*eq: +0.194 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
59.69% (G:37.12% B:12.08%)
40.31% (G:4.89% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.187...+0.201) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
12.Rollout113/11 8/7eq: +0.193 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
59.65% (G:35.11% B:9.12%)
40.35% (G:6.32% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.187...+0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
13.Rollout116/14 13/12*eq: +0.191 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
59.56% (G:36.94% B:12.17%)
40.44% (G:5.11% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.184...+0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 8/7 8/6
[7] 16/13
[6] 8/7 6/4
[4] 16/14 8/7
[3] 8/5
[1] 13/12* 6/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 16/14 8/7

We can start by rejecting the supersafe 16/13. That leaves us with too much awkwardness next turn, and for many turns thereafter, pretty much no matter what he does. Taking a risk of getting hit when it’s unlikely to lead directly to a loss doesn’t seem like too big a deal in comparison.

So, on to plays that relieve some of our awkwardness. For starters, that stack on the 8 point is just dying to roll a checker off onto our bar point with this ace! If we do that and then look around for a 2, maybe we can find a good play for it. 8/6 is a possibility, since having an extra builder there is unlikely to be bad, and a spare there could help in our bearoff. 16/14 is fine, too, getting a checker closer to home. The double shot it leaves instead of a single is no big deal, since one of the hitting rolls is a 2, which he might be better off using one of those inside our home board. Either of these choices has to beat out 16/13, so now on to the hits, to see if any of them beat out these structure-improvement plays.

After hitting with 13/12*, I like 16/14, risking a lot of returns but giving us our best chance to overtime him by hitting Blot B, and also our best shot at making the 9 point if he rolls a brick, including if he stays out. We can’t hold it for long if we get it, but at least it will prevent him from running a checker with a lot of his rolls for a couple of turns. That might be another way to attempt to overtime him.

I don’t think the hit is the wrong concept here a priori, but the opportunity cost of not diversifying with that ace and leaving that giant stack on the 8 to me overshadows any benefit that might come from hitting. I like 8/7 accompanied by 16/14, keeping the outside group together and hoping they can do something useful on their way home. If not, at least this play leaves us better set up to make the 4 point sometime later.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 202
             
11 point match
              pip: 121
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbb-BDCCa--aB--A-abb-b---:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout122/16eq: -0.255
Player:
Opponent:
37.23% (G:4.52% B:0.54%)
62.77% (G:37.57% B:12.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.261...-0.250) - [66.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.playedRollout123/22 16/11eq: -0.257 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
37.14% (G:4.24% B:0.51%)
62.86% (G:38.69% B:11.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.263...-0.251) - [33.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
3.Rollout116/10eq: -0.273 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
36.36% (G:4.16% B:0.50%)
63.64% (G:39.03% B:11.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.279...-0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
4.Rollout123/22 13/8eq: -0.276 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
36.19% (G:4.21% B:0.45%)
63.81% (G:38.41% B:10.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.282...-0.270) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/22 16/11.

Of course, I cannot play a 123 backgame from here as that needs much more timing than I currently have. So I will be moving a back checker. There are two plans for me.

22/16 makes their 9 point and gives me some timing in the outfield. It also makes the 9 point so my opponents cannot make it, but they aren’t very likely to be able to make it anyhow. The drawback of this play is that I may end up with just a 12 backgame. A 12 backgame just is so tough to time as it is so easy to prime.

23/22 keeps a 31 game that can still transition forward into a 32 game or into something holding the 4 point anchor. It also prepares to spring a checker into the outfield with a 6. After 23/22, I think the best 5 is 16/11 minimizing the damage if I roll 44 next and avoiding getting my outfield checkers too far forward.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 121
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bac-BDCC---aBa-A-abb-b---:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 190
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbb-BCBE---aB----abbab-A-:1:-1:1:53:9:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout124/21* 21/16eq: +0.232
Player:
Opponent:
61.62% (G:38.80% B:12.15%)
38.38% (G:4.41% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.226...+0.239) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.Rollout113/5eq: +0.202 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
60.10% (G:36.04% B:10.82%)
39.90% (G:6.40% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.196...+0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: +0.179 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
58.95% (G:35.57% B:10.54%)
41.05% (G:7.02% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.173...+0.186) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 24/21*/16
[ 6] 13/5
[ 1] 13/10 13/8


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/21*/16

We have to get Junior out of the back sometime, and if not now, when? We get rid of a well-placed enemy checker with 24/21*, and then get out with 21/16. While that added man back might let him time his game better, it also might help us overtime his game, making him crash up front before he can run his spares.

The standout alternative play would be 13/5, putting a builder where we could use one. It would be better, though, if that builder came from our stack on the 8 point, not from the midpoint. But the real problem with that play is that we still could get snagged back there in his board, and if we play 13/5 we miss a decent opportunity to un-snag ourselves. After we take care of that loose end, we can worry about what to do next to break up his backgame.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 211
             
11 point match
              pip: 124
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abbb-BCBE---aB--A-abb-b---:1:-1:-1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.224
Player:
Opponent:
38.78% (G:4.94% B:0.40%)
61.22% (G:37.87% B:10.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.230...-0.218) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: -0.288 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
35.61% (G:3.80% B:0.37%)
64.39% (G:40.40% B:11.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.294...-0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16.

I’m happy to be able to play b/16 gaining some timing and flexibility.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 202
             
11 point match
              pip: 124
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbb-BCBEa--aB--A-abb-b---:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-31

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 197
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aabb-BCBB---bD----Abbab-A-:1:-1:1:55:9:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout118/8 13/8 6/1*eq: +0.278
Player:
Opponent:
63.89% (G:36.24% B:7.03%)
36.11% (G:6.96% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.271...+0.284) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.playedRollout118/8 13/8(2)eq: +0.240 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
61.99% (G:35.80% B:8.39%)
38.01% (G:5.90% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.234...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 18/8 13/8(2)
[13] 18/8 13/8 6/1*


Mary Hickey recommends: 18/8 13/8 6/1*

I agree with the readers who think we need to hit on the ace point, 6/1*, and then play 18/8 13/8. It’s not to prevent his making the ace anchor, but rather to stop him from making our 4 point, either immediately or in stages. Our own distribution after this play is awful for our getting it, but if we keep him busy for a turn or two, we still might beat him to it. Alternatively, he might be forced to pooch his timing by hitting our dead checker and turning it into a zombie!

One big deal with our trying to make our 4 point is that if his backgame turns out to be well timed after all, bringing a solid five point prime home against it will be difficult, but bringing in a four point prime with a gap at the front edge is likely to be even more difficult! The other big deal is not letting him get it, since the 3+4 backgame is better for him if his timing stays iffy, and the 2+3+4 is one of the best three-points backgames, and maybe the best overall here, if he’s able to time it. After his staying out followed by our double 5s, it’s possible that he can. So, let’s not let him get that point if we can prevent it!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 197
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aabb-BCBE---bB-----bbab-A-:1:-1:-1:61:9:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout1Bar/24 22/16eq: -0.291
Player:
Opponent:
35.45% (G:5.59% B:0.71%)
64.55% (G:36.85% B:12.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.297...-0.285) - [87.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/24 13/7eq: -0.297 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
35.17% (G:4.90% B:0.53%)
64.83% (G:40.16% B:12.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.304...-0.289) - [12.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 13/7.

Normally when there’s only two choices how to play a number things can be easy to evaluate. This is certainly not the case here! I can play 13/7 which keeps the valuable anchor on the 22 point, but risks getting too far forward and then crashing my board at least to some extent.

Or I can play 22/16 which will do a better job of maintaining timing, but also may result in me playing a 21 backgame, which requires considerably more timing that I have. How to decide? Well this is the OLM and I have plenty of time look at both plays on the board and look at how the USBGF Members rolls then play. I am also looking at the difficulty the readers will have making these plays both this turn and for later turns. Well that helps decide it for me as after 13/7, I am unsure how the readers should play many of their rolls.

I like retaining the 22 point anchor and forcing some of their 5’s to play 13/8.

OK, since I’m basically in full backgame mode, I play b/24 13/7.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 190
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbb-BCBE---aB----abbab-A-:1:-1:1:53:9:9:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 179
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-abb-BCBB---bD----abbab-AA:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/18*eq: +0.400
Player:
Opponent:
69.99% (G:38.35% B:7.90%)
30.01% (G:5.55% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.393...+0.406) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: +0.362 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
68.08% (G:34.70% B:7.94%)
31.92% (G:8.35% B:1.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.356...+0.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/18*
[ 3] b/23 13/8


Mary Hickey recommends: b/18*

We may have mixed feelings about more or less having to hit, bar/18*, but the alternative of bar/23 13/8 looks too constricting for us. We will still have two men back, not good, and a builder on the 8, which isn’t bad in itself but can’t help us if we find we need to build our prime from the back rather than the front, which is still a possibility.

It’s true he may get a third anchor, but that’s not the end of the world. He doesn’t have the timing to play from all three anchors, and even if he did, the 1-2-3 is a lousy three-anchor setup. It tends to get overtimed (too many back, spares unable to run, and the forward game cracks up) and it generates its triple shots relatively late compared to, say, the 2-3-4 or 2-3-5 setups. He may be able to switch over to something better, but that’s something we’ll have to worry about later if it happens.



Neil Kazaross: 65 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 197
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aabb-BCBB---bD----Abbab-A-:1:-1:1:55:9:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sun 7/30 930a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-07-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cD---b-bb-a-AA:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/18eq: +0.328
Player:
Opponent:
66.38% (G:34.10% B:8.73%)
33.62% (G:6.07% B:1.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.321...+0.334) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: +0.307 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
65.33% (G:37.14% B:10.43%)
34.67% (G:6.52% B:1.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.300...+0.313) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/18
[ 7] b/23 13/8


Mary Hickey recommends: b/18

The move that gets us closer to escape seems more important than adding a builder to our 8 point. If we get even one checker permanently freed, that’s good because it will then also become a builder for our forward block, and be a reservoir of playable pips in case we roll an unwelcome big double at a bad time. Also, Neil will have a harder time containing a single remaining back man, because it’s always threatening to take a flying leap out without the liability of leaving a companion behind. Bar/18 looks best for our current objectives.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cD---bAbb-a-A-:1:-1:-1:62:9:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout123/21 13/7*eq: -0.301
Player:
Opponent:
34.93% (G:7.21% B:0.98%)
65.07% (G:36.78% B:10.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.309...-0.294) - [98.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
2.playedRollout124/22 13/7*eq: -0.313 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
34.35% (G:6.69% B:1.28%)
65.65% (G:35.64% B:7.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.320...-0.306) - [1.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout124/16eq: -0.319 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
34.04% (G:6.61% B:0.86%)
65.96% (G:34.17% B:7.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.326...-0.313) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
4.Rollout123/21 22/16eq: -0.322 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
33.89% (G:6.03% B:0.89%)
66.11% (G:37.00% B:12.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.329...-0.316) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 13/7*.

Another play with many options. It seems that I erred earlier in not coming out with my 6. That is to be considered here as well. However, hitting with a 6 prevents my opponents from making much progress and may force them to hit me on my side of the board. If they dance, it still may be possible for me to form a good frontal position and then start hopping over their 4 prime.

So after hitting 13/7*, then 24/22 looks normal as it upgrades my anchor and aims at the outer board as well. However, a big split with 23/21 is to be considered as a try for better anchors or even a point in my opponent’s outer board. I’d try 23/21 for sure if they had a totally stripped 4 prime, but here they have a builder on their 6 point to attack my split checkers with. So I will make the natural looking play leaving me, for now, with anchors on their 3 and 2 points.



USBGF Members: 55 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 188
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-abb-BCBB---bD---babb-a-AA:1:-1:-1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout18/4 8/3eq: -0.355
Player:
Opponent:
32.25% (G:7.34% B:1.15%)
67.75% (G:35.49% B:6.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.362...-0.348) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: -0.375 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
31.25% (G:6.40% B:1.16%)
68.75% (G:37.77% B:7.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.382...-0.368) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
3.Rollout113/9 8/3eq: -0.385 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
30.73% (G:7.60% B:1.40%)
69.27% (G:36.28% B:7.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.391...-0.379) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
4.Rollout113/8 7/3eq: -0.388 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
30.62% (G:8.57% B:1.52%)
69.38% (G:30.05% B:5.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.394...-0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 8/3.

This is not my best roll, but I can continue to play it constructively with 8/4 8/3 as I see nothing else worthy of consideration.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 179
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-abb-BCBB---bD----abbab-AA:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 207
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cDa--c-ba---AA:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/22eq: +0.265
Player:
Opponent:
63.25% (G:35.83% B:9.75%)
36.75% (G:6.13% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.258...+0.272) - [49.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: +0.265 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
63.23% (G:33.91% B:9.14%)
36.77% (G:8.12% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.257...+0.272) - [41.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24 13/11eq: +0.261 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
63.04% (G:35.25% B:9.11%)
36.96% (G:6.93% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.254...+0.267) - [8.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5eq: +0.252 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
62.58% (G:35.40% B:9.62%)
37.42% (G:6.31% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.244...+0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/22
[ 3] b/24 13/11
[ 2] b/23 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: b/22

b/22 is more or less the default play, though I took extra time on this to see if I could come up with a good reason to do anything else. That doesn’t seem to be the case, because our being caught flat-footed on the ace point and then blocked in seems more likely to cause us to crack eventually, than anything that might go wrong from this split position. b/22, and don’t spend too much time on a play like this over the board. That’s where time trouble comes from!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 207
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cDa--c-ba-A-A-:1:-1:-1:65:9:9:0:11:10
to play 65

1.xgRollout122/11eq: -0.292
Player:
Opponent:
35.41% (G:6.69% B:0.92%)
64.59% (G:35.01% B:9.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.298...-0.286) - [98.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout122/16 8/3*eq: -0.303 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
34.87% (G:5.50% B:0.88%)
65.13% (G:39.31% B:12.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.311...-0.295) - [1.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
3.playedRollout111/5 8/3*eq: -0.312 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
34.39% (G:6.25% B:0.87%)
65.61% (G:35.41% B:10.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.319...-0.306) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
4.Rollout122/16 13/8eq: -0.315 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
34.27% (G:5.04% B:0.84%)
65.73% (G:37.13% B:12.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.323...-0.306) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
5.Rollout122/16 11/6eq: -0.319 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
34.04% (G:5.93% B:0.74%)
65.96% (G:37.21% B:10.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.326...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/5 8/3*.

I have quite a difficult choice here. I play the 6 naturally and make my 5 point, and then I think the best 5 is 8/3* as 13/8 strips the mid point and I have to be wary of losing outfield presence for the moment.

However, I can also use this 6 for timing and hop 22/16. Then it is possible to go very blotty and hit 8/3* or to consolidate 16/11. I prefer 16/11, as after 8/3* I think my opponents are smart enough to hit the blots they want to hit and I may end up with half a dozen or more checkers almost primed.

22/11 looks like a good play to me here in with this likely backgame, but I don’t fancy forgoing my 5 point and just as important, I need that checker in my opponents board so I can hopefully make some better anchors than the 1 and 2 points.

For that reason, I play 11/5 8/3*.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cD---b-bb-a-AA:1:-1:1:25:9:9:0:11:10
to play 25

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 194
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-baa-BCBB---cDaa-c-ba---AA:1:-1:1:32:9:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout1Bar/22 13/11eq: +0.254
Player:
Opponent:
62.69% (G:33.55% B:7.53%)
37.31% (G:7.39% B:1.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.248...+0.260) - [75.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/20*eq: +0.250 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
62.52% (G:37.82% B:12.36%)
37.48% (G:6.23% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.243...+0.258) - [23.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 13/10eq: +0.244 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
62.18% (G:35.52% B:9.45%)
37.82% (G:7.35% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.237...+0.250) - [0.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 24/21eq: +0.243 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
62.15% (G:33.20% B:8.18%)
37.85% (G:8.13% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.237...+0.249) - [0.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/22 24/22eq: +0.243 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
62.14% (G:32.00% B:7.42%)
37.86% (G:7.11% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.237...+0.249) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/20*
[ 3] b/22 13/11
[ 2] b/22 24/22


Mary Hickey recommends: b/20*

Once again, a difficult call because it’s DMP. If we could win a gammon, the hit would be clear. I think it’s right here anyway, since he isn’t committed to a backgame yet. Hitting now will pretty much end his chances of winning going forward, which were still in the mix until now despite his four men back.

But even if he’s committed to a backgame, he doesn’t actually have one yet. He is favored, but not certain, to make a second point in our board this turn. If he doesn’t get one, we have decent chances of preventing it. And if he does get a backgame, that’s not exactly an instant win. We may be able to overtime it for him, by making a long, solid block and then sending more checkers back until he runs out of options and has to crash. Or the dice may do our job for us, handing him a couple of big doubles that cause him to crash without our having to do anything.

I have a feeling that the vote will go with the hit today, right or wrong, because there will be a split among the various non-hitting options. But even if one or more of the non-hitting options roll out better than the hit, the difference is likely to not only be small, but one that even XG can’t quite suss out. This will be a very complicated game, no matter what play we choose today, and a sufficiently strong rollout to find the difference (and that’s with near-perfect play!) could delay the OLM for a couple of weeks. No need for that, since no matter what the bot says, someone with a different view of the matter could be right in practice when humans play humans.

So let’s assume everybody was right today, as long as they weren’t too opinionated about it :0)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 214
             
11 point match
              pip: 154
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abaa-BCBB---cDaa-c-bA---A-:1:-1:-1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 10/5*eq: -0.264
Player:
Opponent:
36.82% (G:6.10% B:0.92%)
63.18% (G:36.90% B:10.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.271...-0.256) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.293 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
35.33% (G:4.80% B:0.68%)
64.67% (G:39.82% B:11.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.301...-0.285) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 11/6eq: -0.302 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
34.91% (G:5.46% B:0.78%)
65.09% (G:38.38% B:10.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.309...-0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 10/5*.

This is automatic as I enter bar/23 and hit 10/5*.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 207
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cDa--c-ba---AA:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 197
             
11 point match
              pip: 164
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab-a-BCAB---cEaa-c-c----B-:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.Rollout113/9 13/7eq: +0.279
Player:
Opponent:
63.94% (G:34.57% B:11.74%)
36.06% (G:7.02% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.272...+0.286) - [88.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
2.playedRollout124/20 13/7eq: +0.271 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
63.57% (G:35.77% B:10.66%)
36.43% (G:6.19% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.264...+0.279) - [7.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
3.Rollout124/14*eq: +0.271 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
63.53% (G:37.17% B:13.50%)
36.47% (G:5.70% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.264...+0.277) - [4.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
4.Rollout113/3*eq: +0.234 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
61.68% (G:35.89% B:16.21%)
38.32% (G:7.29% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.227...+0.240) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
5.Rollout124/18 7/3*eq: +0.232 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
61.62% (G:36.07% B:13.85%)
38.38% (G:6.78% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.225...+0.239) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 4139092
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 24/20 13/7 (coin flip!)
[10] 24/14*
[ 5] 13/3*
[ 1] 24/18 7/3*
[ 1] 13/9 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/20 13/7

This one’s a tough call, and it’s not only because of the score. There are several good plays available here, and a case can be made for all of them.

There’s the outside hit, 24/14*, which would have to be right if we could win a gammon. Yes, it might help him time his backgame if he gets one, but if he doesn’t, we have an extra checker to push back to the ace point. This play can also help us win by taking away one of his block-builders and soon turning our hitting checker into a builder for our own forward structure. This play is a strong contender at DMP as well as for money.

Then we have plays that include 13/7, completing the Structure Worth More than the Sum of Its Parts, followed up with either 24/20 or 13/9. Both plays of the 4 have merit: 24/20 because it mobilizes our back men, and 13/9 because it both slots another point in our prime, and provides us with another attacker to stop him from making a second anchor if he doesn’t do so on this turn.

And speaking of preventing his getting a second anchor, then we have two plays that include 7/3* as their 4, trying to prevent his making the second anchor on this turn even if he rolls a 3.. The 6 can then be played 13/7 or 24/18.

Even though preventing the second anchor is a very good objective, I’m going to pass on those last two plays. This is in part because of the extraordinary complexity of the game that follows if we are hit, and in part because stopping his anchoring is not so hugely important that it swamps all other objectives. Regarding the second group, the Structure Worth More is an excellent long-lasting asset, and we have a long game ahead of us. If we play 13/7, I like 24/20 for the 4, threatening his outer board blots if we decide we want one of them, allowing us to form a temporary anchor while we do some more building up front, or inviting an exchange of hits on his 5 point that could favor us. For me, that play wins unless 24/14*, bagging an extra checker and also running a back man, can beat out making the bar point.

This is still a hard call, even though now I have it down to two plays, so next I’m going to consider which accomplishes something that might be harder to do later. If we don’t make the bar point now, even though we are favored to beat him to it, we might never get it, and might be sorry later that we don’t have it. It’s also true that we might never hit another blot if we don’t do it now, but given our lead in the race, I don’t think we will be all that sorry all that often if we can’t send a fifth man back. But then, as I often say, only half kidding: “There’s no such thing as a won race!”

I’m still tempted to flip a coin, but I’m going to go with 24/20 13/7 because of the long-lasting asset it creates.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 197
             
11 point match
              pip: 154
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab-a-BCBB---cDaa-c-cA---A-:1:-1:-1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 6/5*eq: -0.251
Player:
Opponent:
37.46% (G:6.30% B:0.74%)
62.54% (G:36.36% B:12.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.258...-0.244) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22eq: -0.278 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
36.08% (G:6.18% B:0.82%)
63.92% (G:35.22% B:8.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.284...-0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 11/10eq: -0.297 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
35.16% (G:6.48% B:0.74%)
64.84% (G:33.81% B:8.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.302...-0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 22/21eq: -0.309 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
34.56% (G:5.26% B:0.88%)
65.44% (G:38.60% B:13.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.316...-0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 6/5*.

I should make one more attempt at building a decent forward position. If I play bar/23 6/5*, I may be missed and if I am hit, I can usually make a second point and the pips lost may help me time some kind of backgame. Of course I am at risk of being attacked with medium sized doubles but even then my opponents have only 9 checkers in the attack zone and I can usually establish a second point in their board.

It is DMP, so I cannot be gammoned or backgammoned so that makes b/23 6/5* even more clear to me. In for a penny, in for a pound.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 194
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-baa-BCBB---cDaa-c-ba---AA:1:-1:1:32:9:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-23

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 186
             
11 point match
              pip: 168
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-aEaC---cEaa-c-c----AA:1:-1:1:11:9:9:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 8/7* 6/5*(2)eq: +0.237
Player:
Opponent:
61.84% (G:35.46% B:11.08%)
38.16% (G:7.57% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.230...+0.243) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5*(2)eq: +0.150 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
57.48% (G:27.98% B:5.90%)
42.52% (G:9.05% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.144...+0.155) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] b/24 8/7* 6/5*(2)


Mary Hickey recommends: b/24 8/7* 6/5*(2)

Sometimes there is no quiz factor, and the “natural” or “obvious” play is actually right! I’ll be surprised if bar/24 8/7* 6/5*(2) isn’t both right and unanimous.



Neil Kazaross: 51 b/24


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 197
             
11 point match
              pip: 164
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab-a-BCAB---cEaa-c-c----B-:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-22

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 195
             
11 point match
              pip: 168
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-a-aE-C---dEa--c-c----AA:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.xgRollout1Bar/21 24/18eq: +0.013
Player:
Opponent:
50.64% (G:21.46% B:3.71%)
49.36% (G:13.11% B:1.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.007...+0.018) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/15eq: -0.003 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
49.86% (G:20.18% B:3.28%)
50.14% (G:12.88% B:1.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.008...+0.003) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] b/15
[ 7] b/21 24/18


Mary Hickey recommends: b/21 24/18

There are only four choices, and we can quickly eliminate two: 13/7 because it’s too bold, and 8/2 because it’s too wimpy. Both these plays have the problem of being Splots (where are you today, Chuck?), that is, combinations of a slot and a split. Such plays aren’t always wrong, but even when a bold play is needed, they frequently finish second to some play that is bold but doesn’t leave you weak in two areas of the board at once. Here, both the Splot plays have a lot wrong with them, and we have two good alternatives that play just on the opponent’s side, so it would seem the choice has to be between them. But it’s not that easy to figure out which is better, bar/21/15 or bar/21 24/18.

Bar/15 has the advantage of leaving fewer shots, and that checker itself is in a good spot to escape to safety, help make outer board points or just “watch” our outer board if it isn’t hit. Sometimes that is a compelling enough argument for a play like this, but here I’m not so sure. If it turns out that checker has nothing useful to do next turn, it’s at least going to be exposed to shots from the midpoint again, and possibly also from the 11 if it’s been covered, which is quite possible. (Otherwise the blot there now will probably be gone, which of course would be good.) In addition, there will continue to be indirects threatening it from the 20 and 22 points.

Those negatives don’t make bar/15 a bad play, but they make it weaker than usual–is that enough to make bar/21 24/18 catch up? That play is dangerous because of the many double hits that may happen, but getting hit twice isn’t as dangerous here as it is with both gammons and the cube in play. Our chance of getting closed out is quite small even if, as one frequent poster here sometimes puts it, “the house falls on us”. Neil needs twelve checkers to do that, and four of his fifteen of them are very far away, which means there are only 11 we need to consider available. (“What is the sound of one checker pointing?”) It’s also hard to make such a limited number of checkers roll perfectly into a solid prime or block, so his attacking or blocking strategy will always be in danger of stalling out even if it starts well. But more importantly, he can’t double us out no matter how well this sequence and the next one go for him, which means we will still have substantial winning chances even if we make this play and it goes kerblooie.

What about the upside compared to bar/15? We may establish either of the two good anchors we are starting, or maybe even the 20 point. We don’t leave our back checker stranded while we take care of that forward checker next turn, if he isn’t hit. We take less risk of ending up with both our back checkers farther back in his board than we want them, especially given our race lead, if that forward checker does get hit. We may force him to make hits he doesn’t really like, for example stripping the 8 to hit us. We distract him so that he can’t place his checkers optimally “where they want to go,” as Kit would say.

I voted for bar/21 24/18, but I admit to possibly being over-influenced by having seen other superficially similar early-game positions where enter-and-hop plays are very wrong! I got here late today, and the vote seems headed toward bar/15 being the readers’ choice, and I won’t choke on my mango lasse in surprise if the rollout shows they are right. But I will be very surprised if they both don’t beat out the Splots.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 195
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-a-aE-C---dEaA-c-c----A-:1:-1:-1:63:9:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/18 13/10*eq: -0.009
Player:
Opponent:
49.54% (G:12.71% B:1.51%)
50.46% (G:21.58% B:3.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.011...-0.007) - [99.9%]
Duration: 14 hours 05 minutes
2.Rollout122/16 13/10*eq: -0.014 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
49.29% (G:13.17% B:1.77%)
50.71% (G:21.73% B:4.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.016...-0.012) - [0.1%]
Duration: 14 hours 11 minutes
3.Rollout220/14 13/10*eq: -0.029 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
48.55% (G:12.99% B:2.07%)
51.45% (G:22.19% B:5.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.035...-0.023) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
4.Rollout211/5 8/5eq: -0.031 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
48.44% (G:13.51% B:1.65%)
51.56% (G:20.46% B:4.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.036...-0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/18 13/10*.

I think hitting and gaining some pips and taking half a roll away from my opponents is superior to making my 5 point. So it is 13/10*, and now I have to find a 6.

20/14 looks to be too passive as it takes the checker away from a point I’d like to make.

22/16 connects nicely to my blot/builders in my outfield and results in some of my opponents 6’s not being able to hit me. However, if I get hit on the 16 point, my own 6’s except 63 aren’t good and I also have bad 6’s if hit loose on the 20 point.

24/18 leaves 6 blots but I like the diversification. However, it may be trying to accomplish too much. But it is DMP, and the USBGF Members have made no forward progress. I won’t like their odd numbered entering doubles but these threaten 22/16 as well.

Let’s play a complicated game! I will try 24/18 13/10*.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 186
             
11 point match
              pip: 168
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-aEaC---cEaa-c-c----AA:1:-1:1:11:9:9:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 178
             
11 point match
              pip: 168
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---aE-C---dEa--c-ca---AA:1:-1:1:55:9:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout1Bar/20* 20/5*eq: +0.122
Player:
Opponent:
56.10% (G:28.41% B:7.79%)
43.90% (G:9.06% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.116...+0.128) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20* 20/10 13/8eq: +0.074 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
53.68% (G:28.06% B:6.68%)
46.32% (G:10.39% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.069...+0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout1Bar/20* 13/3 8/3eq: +0.061 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
53.06% (G:29.36% B:9.72%)
46.94% (G:9.33% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.055...+0.067) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] b/20*/5*
[ 2] b/20* 13/3 8/3


Mary Hickey recommends: b/20*/5*

Hitting twice is clear. We continue the fight hard for the points we want before it gets at all dangerous to do so. The opening is the best time to do that! With a little luck, he’ll miss and we’ll cover, and then it will be more dangerous for him than for us to continue taking risks to make key points.



Neil Kazaross: 53 b/20* b/22


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 195
             
11 point match
              pip: 168
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-a-aE-C---dEa--c-c----AA:1:-1:1:46:9:9:0:11:10
to play 46

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:1:-1:1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout124/20*eq: +0.018
Player:
Opponent:
50.88% (G:20.20% B:2.98%)
49.12% (G:13.41% B:1.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.013...+0.022) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.001 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
49.94% (G:17.08% B:2.38%)
50.06% (G:17.51% B:2.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.006...+0.003) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 24/20*
[ 2] 8/5 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/20*

I’m not a big fan of memorizing some huge table of opening roll responses, but this is one we all need to know: If the opponent slots his 5 point with his opening roll, then with a 31* response, it’s right to hit. This is true regardless of the score, and whether or not he was supposed to slot–for example, the rule also holds when your opponent slots his 5 point with a 62, 43 etc. as well as the more commonly seen slotting rolls 21, 41, and 51. This does not contradict the principle that “the 5 point is the 5 point,” because it prevents him from making his 5 point, while gaining in the race and also slotting the best defensive anchor. Too much good stuff to pass up! We can worry about making our own 5 point later.

* A response roll of 11 is often another story, because your alternative makes two good points, not just one. But we’ll leave that discussion for another day!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 184
             
11 point match
              pip: 163
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab----E-C---dEa--c-dA---A-:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 6/5*eq: -0.015
Player:
Opponent:
49.26% (G:13.07% B:1.41%)
50.74% (G:21.12% B:4.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.020...-0.010) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 24/23eq: -0.091 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
45.45% (G:11.26% B:1.08%)
54.55% (G:22.81% B:3.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.096...-0.086) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 6/5*.

This is automatic, as I can go after both 5 points.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 178
             
11 point match
              pip: 168
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---aE-C---dEa--c-ca---AA:1:-1:1:55:9:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-16

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:00:9:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:49.25% (G:16.66% B:2.81%)49.26% (G:16.64% B:2.80%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:50.75% (G:15.79% B:2.08%)50.74% (G:15.57% B:2.01%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.001-0.042
Cubeful Equities
     No double:-0.042 (0.000)±0.006 (-0.048..-0.037)
played Double/Take:-0.042±0.006 (-0.047..-0.036)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.042)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 4139092
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:52.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 22 hours 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] Double
[13] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

The Ph. D. mathematicians among us can prove beyond doubt that it’s always right to double at the first opportunity at 2-away, 2-away. QED! They are right in theory, but that doesn’t mean it’s always best in practice. Against an expert, though, we can’t go far wrong doubling right away at this score, and that’s how I voted today.

The times where there’s a defensible case for waiting tend to be when you get a good opening roll, your opponent doesn’t double and rolls something lame, and you have the opportunity to play on for the gammon or else to get them to take a pass or pass a take later. Alternatively, they may reach a position so overwhelming that they double you out, and you’re still alive to come back and win the match. How do you know that it might work out better to wait? The fact that for whatever reason, they didn’t double you at their first opportunity! If they were playing the mathematically correct strategy, they would have doubled immediately because they know it’s “right”; therefore, they must have something else in mind.

In such a case, or in one where you know from experience that your opponent won’t double after your response to his opener, a waiting strategy really something you should try? In theory, no, and in practice, not often. But if your opponent appears to have every intention of messing around trying to get you to make an error also, it just might work. Even then, though, use caution and consider both the opponent and the specifics of the position.

I forget which year it was, but I won Player of the Year at the Ohio State club because of a Conso final that decided it, and that was how it ended–a three-game 2-away 2-away! He doubled me out of the first game, then I tied it up in the second, and won the DMP. If I had doubled right away, I would probably have lost. That’s not just playing the results, at least not in my mind, because I was quite sure waiting was the equity play. My experience with this opponent was that he definitely would continue “messing around” at the score for a long time, and that by the time he doubled me, if it came to that, it would most likely be a clear pass at the score. I also believed that if I gained an advantage, my chances of getting him to make a cube error either way were decent, and that if the game went my way I might increase my match equity by that means. If instead I doubled him into a take and he took, it would be no harm, no foul for my having waited. What was not to like?

But when in any doubt, just double and avoid difficult decisions later. You also benefit by taking no risk of zoning out near the end of a long match and forgetting about the cube!


Neil Kazaross takes.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:1:-1:1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 73
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBAA---A---b-Bdcbb-b-:1:1:1:22:9:7:0:11:10
to play 22

1.xgRollout112/10 8/4 7/5eq: -0.756
Player:
Opponent:
12.47% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
87.53% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.757...-0.755) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds
2.playedRollout112/4eq: -0.764 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
12.16% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
87.84% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.765...-0.763) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 12/4
[12] 12/10 8/4 7/5
[ 1] 12/6 7/5
[ 1] 8/4 7/3


Mary Hickey recommends: 12/10 8/4 7/5

Covering the 4 point can’t be wrong, can it? Let’s start there, with 8/4! After that, we have a choice of 12/8 or 12/10 7/5. Both are good for our future bearoff, but there’s a viglet favoring the latter play: What if we get our shot now, and hit it with a roll where the other die is a 5 or a 6? We can’t “hide” both checkers from our 7 and 8 points, so we will be leaving a potentially disastrous return shot for him from the bar in those cases. Since we will also have left two loose checkers in his outer board, if we don’t get back on the board immediately, a return shot like that could even lead to a freak gammon loss that was preventable at this turn.

12/10 8/4 7/5 looks like the play, though the difference may be so tiny that it’s in the fourth decimal place.



Neil Kazaross: 43 9/6 9/5
USBGF Members: 31 18/15 7/6
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 43 18/14 15/12
Neil Kazaross: 52 6/4 5/0
USBGF Members: 55 14/4 12/7 8/3
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 62 7/5 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 21 4/2 1/0
USBGF Members: 33 3/0(4)
Neil Kazaross: 22 6/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 43 5/2 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 66 6/0 5/0 4/0(2)
USBGF Members: 32 6/3 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 65 3/0(2)


Neil Kazaross wins two points, and the match is tied 2-away/2-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout113/11 6/5eq: +0.030
Player:
Opponent:
50.53% (G:15.57% B:1.93%)
49.47% (G:17.63% B:2.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.018...+0.043) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: +0.004 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
50.08% (G:15.28% B:1.70%)
49.92% (G:14.69% B:1.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.008...+0.016) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 6/5.

I almost always slot an opening 21 unless way ahead in the match at some scores.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:00:9:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 77
             
11 point match
              pip: 106
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBA-----B--c-Bdbbb-b-:1:1:1:51:9:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.Rollout113/8 3/2eq: -0.811
Player:
Opponent:
10.00% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
90.00% (G:0.54% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.812...-0.810) - [99.5%]
Duration: 5 minutes 12 seconds
2.xgRollout113/8 7/6eq: -0.813 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
9.82% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
90.18% (G:0.46% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.814...-0.812) - [0.4%]
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds
3.playedRollout113/12 13/8eq: -0.813 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
9.79% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
90.21% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.814...-0.812) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout113/8 5/4eq: -0.820 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
9.54% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
90.46% (G:0.54% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.821...-0.819) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 31 seconds
5.Rollout17/2 3/2eq: -0.821 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
9.75% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
90.25% (G:0.80% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.822...-0.820) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 12 seconds
6.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: -0.825 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
9.34% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
90.66% (G:0.61% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.827...-0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 54 seconds
7.Rollout113/7eq: -0.826 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
9.29% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
90.71% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.827...-0.825) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 13/12 13/8
[ 9] 13/8 7/6
[ 4] 13/8 3/2
[ 3] 7/2 3/2
[ 1] 13/8 2/1
[ 1] 13/8 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/12 13/8

The chance we get a shot has shrunk so much that it doesn’t seem terribly important to complete a five point board by making the 2 point. Our racing chances don’t look wonderful either, but they may not be as bad as the pip count difference alone suggests. If he rolls a bunch of numbers that include 2s and 1s, he may waste pips inside to avoid leaving a shot, and also delay the start of his bearoff. That benefits us because who knows, we might boom away with a big double at just the right time–stranger things have happened. Once again, we have a difficult balance to find, this time between our limited chance to get a shot vs. a not very inspiring race.

Of the two, though, playing for the race also plays to minimize the very small chance we get gammoned if he’s the one that booms past us with doubles. For me today, that’s the swing factor regarding which game plan to maximize.

With both gammon avoidance and winning the bearoff in mind, I think 7/2 should not be our 5. That wastes pips, and we can’t afford to waste any without a good reason. 13/8 is a perfectly acceptable 5, so let’s start by saying that’s how we’re playing it, and look for the best ace. There are three decent ones available: the distribution-smoothing 3/2, and the crossover-making 7/6 or 13/12. If we want to quibble about which of them is best, that’s fine because that’s part of what we’re here for :0) But I think any one of them is perfectly all right to do. I picked 13/12 but have no beef with either of the other two.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 77
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBAA---A---c-Bdbbb-b-:1:1:-1:31:9:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout16/2eq: +0.758
Player:
Opponent:
87.58% (G:0.31% B:0.01%)
12.42% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.757...+0.759) - [99.9%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
2.playedRollout19/5eq: +0.755 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
87.39% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
12.61% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.754...+0.756) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/5.

Two plays have merit. 1) The straightforward 9/5, hoping to not roll 62 or 61 next. 2) 6/2 hoping to stall a turn or two and roll a double to clear with never having any blotting risk.

I’d play 6/2 with a huge race lead, but here I will try 9/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 73
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBAA---A---b-Bdcbb-b-:1:1:1:22:9:7:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sat 7/15 1145p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-07-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BAABBA--b-B--c-Bbbbb-b-:1:1:1:43:9:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout18/4 7/4eq: -0.492
Player:
Opponent:
28.42% (G:1.03% B:0.05%)
71.58% (G:3.03% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.495...-0.489) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 54 seconds
2.playedRollout18/5 7/3eq: -0.507 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
27.86% (G:1.10% B:0.06%)
72.14% (G:3.19% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.509...-0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 24 seconds
3.Rollout17/4 7/3eq: -0.507 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
27.65% (G:1.25% B:0.06%)
72.35% (G:3.02% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.510...-0.505) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 59 seconds
4.Rollout18/4 5/2eq: -0.511 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
28.37% (G:1.15% B:0.03%)
71.63% (G:3.94% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.514...-0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 49 seconds
5.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.540 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
23.77% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
76.23% (G:0.79% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.543...-0.538) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 8/5 7/3
[ 6] 8/4 7/4
[ 6] 8/4 5/2
[ 2] 7/4 7/3
[ 1] 13/10 13/9


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5 7/3

We can’t make both our missing high points, but we can make the 5, so unless the other half of the roll plays badly, that’s a good starting point. The only other play for the other half of the roll is 7/3, and that is a bit awkward, so I’ll try making the 4 point instead and see what the 3 does: either 8/4 or 7/3. Neither of those choices looks special either.

What can break the three-way tie? Not the covering duplication of the possible hit with a 2, because he’s not likely to be forced to “pay now” on this turn, nor to choose to do so. I’m OK with leaving 2s to cover. So what I’ll look for next is duplications of our rolls to cover versus rolls that make the 2 point. Now 8/5 7/3 wins, but with an asterisk–until we bring the midpoint down, what rolls are we going to use to make the 5 point with a 3 anyway? Just 32 and 31, probably. This diversification doesn’t seem to be much of a big deal.

How about other factors, including how well the roll plays for our future bearoff? Now 8/4 7/4 looks better. It puts that awkward, semi-dillied spare that we can’t avoid without making plays we don’t like at all, such as bringing the midpoint down, onto our 4 point. That is better for the bearoff than on the 3 point given the same number of pips total. (We have to include that disclaimer, because otherwise we’d just be Captain Obvious and say our ideal bearoff is all fifteen on the ace point! But then, when I pointed out this difference to one student, he quickly rejoined with, “Not me, I’d rather start with all fifteen already in the bearoff tray” :0) True enough, yes?)

As with yesterday’s decision, these small factors (Marty might call them “viglets”) favoring one reasonable play over another are hard to quantify and compare. I had to vote for something, so I picked 8/5 7/3, with the tiebreaker for me being Kit’s famous backgammon identity axiom, “The 5 point is the 5 point.” I don’t see anything much to like about 7/4 7/3, but I do think 8/4 7/4 is a decent contender because of where it puts the spare. Once again, as long as we don’t do break our midpoint and prematurely release the pressure on his backward point, I don’t think we’re going to do anything awful here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 106
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBA---b-B--c-Bbbbb-b-:1:1:-1:44:9:7:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout114/6(2)eq: +0.783
Player:
Opponent:
88.71% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
11.29% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.781...+0.784) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout114/10(2) 9/5 6/2eq: +0.721 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
85.31% (G:0.72% B:0.03%)
14.69% (G:0.36% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.719...+0.722) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout114/10(2) 9/1eq: +0.710 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
84.86% (G:0.65% B:0.03%)
15.14% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.709...+0.712) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/6(2).

14/6(2) with this joker gives me a nearly won game.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 77
             
11 point match
              pip: 106
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBA-----B--c-Bdbbb-b-:1:1:1:51:9:7:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 96
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-B--CBB--b-B-ab-Bcbab-b-:1:1:1:41:9:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/4 6/5eq: -0.558
Player:
Opponent:
25.56% (G:1.50% B:0.02%)
74.44% (G:3.48% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.561...-0.556) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 7/6eq: -0.568 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
24.55% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
75.45% (G:2.93% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.570...-0.565) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout17/2eq: -0.578 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
24.63% (G:0.87% B:0.03%)
75.37% (G:3.51% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.581...-0.575) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 37 seconds
4.Rollout17/3 6/5eq: -0.582 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
23.36% (G:0.84% B:0.00%)
76.64% (G:2.48% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.585...-0.580) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 37 seconds
5.Rollout18/7 8/4eq: -0.587 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
23.31% (G:0.94% B:0.01%)
76.69% (G:2.64% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.589...-0.584) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 29 seconds
6.Rollout18/3eq: -0.594 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
23.57% (G:1.05% B:0.02%)
76.43% (G:3.25% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.596...-0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 19 seconds
7.Rollout17/6 7/3eq: -0.596 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
22.90% (G:0.77% B:0.00%)
77.10% (G:2.73% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.599...-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 13 seconds
8.Rollout18/7 6/2eq: -0.602 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
23.03% (G:1.03% B:0.00%)
76.97% (G:3.15% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.605...-0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 08 seconds
9.Rollout16/2 3/2eq: -0.609 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
22.97% (G:0.73% B:0.00%)
77.03% (G:3.44% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.612...-0.607) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 24 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 8/4 6/5
[ 7] 8/7 8/4
[ 2] 7/2
[ 2] 8/4 7/6
[ 1] 7/6 7/3
[ 1] 6/2 3/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/2

This is a tough call, playing for the win, but not too hard and “purely” because multiple blots could lead to gammons, but not forgetting about the race, either, since we’re behind but still alive in it. There are quite a few plays that make sense for various reasons on our side of the board, but I picked 7/2 because: a) it leaves only one blot in our home, and only two total; 2) if we don’t hit next turn, it leaves us with good small numbers making the high points and good large ones covering the 2; and 3) (less important, but a factor anyway) if we get a shot, we know for sure it will not be a 6 or a 5, so I like having those be covering numbers.

These reasons are good, but light in weight, so some other reasonable choice might be better for some other reason, also light but a bit heavier than these. There isn’t any slam-dunk choice, so try to sort out the delicate balance among hits, the race, and avoiding gammons, and you’ll be good. And yes, that is easier said than done!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 96
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BAABBA--b-B-ab-Bcbab-b-:1:1:-1:21:9:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout110/9 6/4eq: +0.448
Player:
Opponent:
69.94% (G:2.45% B:0.09%)
30.06% (G:1.13% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.446...+0.449) - [90.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout110/8 6/5eq: +0.446 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
69.84% (G:2.48% B:0.09%)
30.16% (G:1.29% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.445...+0.448) - [8.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.Rollout110/8 5/4eq: +0.446 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
69.71% (G:2.57% B:0.08%)
30.29% (G:1.25% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.444...+0.447) - [0.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
4.Rollout210/8 9/8eq: +0.438 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
68.59% (G:3.30% B:0.10%)
31.41% (G:1.95% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.435...+0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/9 6/4.

10/9 6/4 looks to be automatic but on more detailed inspection maybe I can try 10/8 9/8 to make things somewhat easier to clear. With what 2’s will they hit me with after I make the 8 point? Well 22 wrecks me and they probably hit with 21, but hitting with 23 or 24 looks risky at gammon save. I am not sure if it is worth this slight risk since 10/9 6/4 makes a 5 point board which will often make any hit I can make a gammon win.

10/9 6/4 just looks fine and can’t possibly be far wrong, so I will go with that simple play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BAABBA--b-B--c-Bbbbb-b-:1:1:1:43:9:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 104
             
11 point match
              pip: 123
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-B--DBBb-a-B--b-Bcbab-b-:1:1:1:41:9:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/1eq: -0.389
Player:
Opponent:
35.04% (G:2.70% B:0.06%)
64.96% (G:4.50% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.393...-0.386) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 16 seconds
2.xgRollout18/4 6/5eq: -0.411 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
32.63% (G:2.78% B:0.12%)
67.37% (G:3.17% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.414...-0.408) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 11357183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 6/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 6/1

We have the chance now to cover the ace point using a spare from the 6 point, and should do so. Then if there’s a blot hanging around in the outer boards next turn, we’re in better shape to hit it, since we won’t be leaving so many blots ourselves that we’ll be taking too much gammon risk to do so. If it turns out we’re unable to contain that blot once we hit it, that may be all right because the gain we make in the race by hitting might be enough to let us win that way instead, without a closeout. We’re behind now, but not by a huge margin.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 104
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-B--CBBb-a-B--b-Bcbab-b-:1:1:-1:62:9:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout116/14 16/10eq: +0.404
Player:
Opponent:
63.60% (G:6.59% B:0.24%)
36.40% (G:3.29% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.401...+0.407) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 19 seconds
2.Rollout114/6eq: +0.384 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
64.71% (G:4.48% B:0.15%)
35.29% (G:2.26% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.381...+0.387) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout114/8 6/4eq: +0.377 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
63.19% (G:5.67% B:0.13%)
36.81% (G:2.77% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.374...+0.381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 11357183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/14 16/10.

I am up 22 pips after this roll, so I should look to continue the plan of coming around and trying to get my checkers home for the bear off. If I play 16/14 16/10, I advance along that plan and my outfield points will give me return shots if the 13 number shot is hit with anything other than a 33 joker. This seems to me to be the best way forward and makes more sense than either 14/8 6/4 or 14/6.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 96
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-B--CBB--b-B-ab-Bcbab-b-:1:1:1:41:9:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 111
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-aDCBb---B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:1:51:9:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout17/2 3/2eq: -0.346
Player:
Opponent:
37.49% (G:3.06% B:0.15%)
62.51% (G:4.82% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.348...-0.345) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 09 minutes
2.playedRollout17/1eq: -0.352 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
37.34% (G:3.07% B:0.13%)
62.66% (G:4.93% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.353...-0.350) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout28/7 8/3eq: -0.367 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
36.14% (G:2.52% B:0.00%)
63.86% (G:4.49% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.371...-0.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 01 second
4.Rollout26/1 3/2eq: -0.397 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
33.92% (G:2.16% B:0.04%)
66.08% (G:3.75% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.400...-0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 20 seconds
5.Rollout28/2eq: -0.636 (-0.289)
Player:
Opponent:
32.70% (G:3.37% B:0.37%)
67.30% (G:14.49% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.640...-0.632) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 03 seconds
6.Rollout28/3 7/6eq: -0.650 (-0.304)
Player:
Opponent:
31.49% (G:2.80% B:0.21%)
68.51% (G:14.01% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.654...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 56 seconds
7.Rollout27/6 7/2eq: -0.659 (-0.313)
Player:
Opponent:
32.47% (G:3.73% B:0.14%)
67.53% (G:15.43% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.663...-0.655) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 19 seconds
8.Rollout28/7 6/1eq: -0.689 (-0.342)
Player:
Opponent:
30.70% (G:3.50% B:0.24%)
69.30% (G:15.14% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.693...-0.684) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 45 seconds
9.Rollout218/13 7/6eq: -0.726 (-0.379)
Player:
Opponent:
32.52% (G:3.81% B:0.28%)
67.48% (G:18.80% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.730...-0.722) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 42 seconds
10.Rollout213/8 6/5*eq: -0.732 (-0.385)
Player:
Opponent:
42.47% (G:8.42% B:0.97%)
57.53% (G:29.06% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.737...-0.727) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 40 seconds
11.Rollout213/12 13/8eq: -0.736 (-0.390)
Player:
Opponent:
30.87% (G:3.84% B:0.38%)
69.13% (G:17.68% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.741...-0.732) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 21 seconds
12.Rollout218/17 18/13eq: -0.742 (-0.396)
Player:
Opponent:
32.53% (G:3.73% B:0.39%)
67.47% (G:19.64% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.746...-0.738) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 43 seconds
13.Rollout213/7eq: -0.745 (-0.398)
Player:
Opponent:
31.33% (G:4.01% B:0.32%)
68.67% (G:18.57% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.749...-0.740) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 41 seconds
14.Rollout213/8 7/6eq: -0.756 (-0.409)
Player:
Opponent:
30.68% (G:3.97% B:0.47%)
69.32% (G:18.47% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.760...-0.752) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 23 seconds
15.Rollout28/3 6/5*eq: -0.820 (-0.473)
Player:
Opponent:
36.22% (G:6.35% B:0.49%)
63.78% (G:27.20% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.825...-0.815) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 21 seconds
16.Rollout218/13 6/5*eq: -0.855 (-0.508)
Player:
Opponent:
38.77% (G:6.33% B:0.61%)
61.23% (G:31.50% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.860...-0.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 11357183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 11357183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 7/1 (coin flip!)
[13] 7/2 3/2
[ 1] 8/7 8/3
[ 1] 18/17 18/13
[ 1] 13/8 6/5*
[ 1] 18/13 6/5*


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/1

Hitting is too risky, and isn’t guaranteed to “work” even if we are missed. He still has the 4 point to enter on as well as the 5, and if he enters and sits there, we might have another choice like this one to make–cover and hit loose, or point on him still leaving a blot on the 5 point. We might even find ourselves unable to either hit or cover, and then we’re in a bad spot even if he enters in the back of our board or stays out.

Once again, we have safe options that are reasonable, if not exactly special. We can make the 2 point, shifting to having a blot on the 3, or we can play 7/1. I like 7/1 a little better because it avoids losing the 3 point to make a point 6 away from the top of our outside block, which is undesirable because the 8 and 2 cannot be part of the same prime. But since we’re likely to let the 8 point go soon anyway, and we may never reach a point where we’re blocking in an enemy checker with a prime, that’s not as big a deal as it is in the game’s earlier stages where priming is more likely to happen than it is here. I voted for 7/1, but making the 2 point is fine–just don’t hit and we’ll be doing the right thing.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 111
             
11 point match
              pip: 123
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-B-aDBBb---B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:-1:61:9:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout120/14 5/4eq: +0.338
Player:
Opponent:
62.86% (G:4.05% B:0.16%)
37.14% (G:2.48% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.335...+0.341) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout120/14 6/5eq: +0.309 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
61.41% (G:4.07% B:0.15%)
38.59% (G:2.81% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.306...+0.313) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout120/14 3/2eq: +0.307 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
59.55% (G:5.78% B:0.15%)
40.45% (G:4.72% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.303...+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 44 seconds
4.Rollout120/13eq: +0.302 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
60.76% (G:4.33% B:0.17%)
39.24% (G:3.29% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.299...+0.305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 11357183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/14 5/4.

This is a decent roll for me, as out I come heading for home with my spare checker with 20/14 and then I can play 5/4 slotting a good point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 104
             
11 point match
              pip: 123
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-B--DBBb-a-B--b-Bcbab-b-:1:1:1:41:9:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abECC----B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:1:53:9:7:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.162
Player:
Opponent:
47.89% (G:5.24% B:0.19%)
52.11% (G:5.97% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.166...-0.157) - [100.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout17/2 6/3eq: -0.242 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
43.64% (G:4.32% B:0.14%)
56.36% (G:5.71% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.245...-0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: -0.261 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
43.50% (G:5.22% B:0.14%)
56.50% (G:6.53% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.264...-0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 17 seconds
4.Rollout118/15 18/13eq: -0.326 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:
42.99% (G:2.74% B:0.07%)
57.01% (G:9.28% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.330...-0.322) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 69024107
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/3 6/3


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/3 6/3

Once again, we have a completely shot-free alternative that’s reasonable, so our choice is clear. Since we aren’t sure who’s holding whom now, we are in no rush to get off our bar point anchor. This is especially true when doing so leaves gammonish shots, as it would here. Making the 3 point is an effective play that reduces our huge deficit in board strength, and includes using a checker from the oversized stack on our 6 point to do it. Nothing not to like!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BabDCB----B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:-1:54:9:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout121/16 20/16eq: +0.171
Player:
Opponent:
53.66% (G:4.87% B:0.16%)
46.34% (G:5.74% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.167...+0.175) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout121/16 6/2eq: +0.137 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
50.68% (G:6.19% B:0.22%)
49.32% (G:5.59% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.134...+0.141) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 69024107
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/16 20/16.

There are some things to notice about this position. 1) I am up 18 pips after this roll. 2) I have few spare pips to play on my side of the board without soon being forced to harm my structure if I cannot hop a back checker out conveniently. 3) The score is gammon go for me and the road to winning said gammon starts with hitting a blot.

Everything points to moving forward by making the 16 point. Unfortunately this leaves my opponents 9 rolls to point on me, but the other 27 do not so I strongly feel that I have to take this risk. I may even be able to survive being pointed on, but their 22 and 33 will often wreck me.

The only alternative I see is 21/16 6/2 but that looks too feeble and doesn’t properly address the fact that I need to move forward.

21/16 20/16 just seems like a must for me here, especially at the score.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 111
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-aDCBb---B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:1:51:9:7:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abECB----B-AbbBbb-b-b-:1:1:1:43:9:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout115/8eq: -0.248
Player:
Opponent:
42.79% (G:4.29% B:0.31%)
57.21% (G:5.20% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.252...-0.244) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout17/3 6/3eq: -0.365 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
44.58% (G:5.28% B:0.43%)
55.42% (G:12.82% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.369...-0.360) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout118/15 18/14eq: -0.396 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:
42.08% (G:3.61% B:0.14%)
57.92% (G:11.88% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.401...-0.391) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.490 (-0.242)
Player:
Opponent:
39.51% (G:5.37% B:0.25%)
60.49% (G:14.01% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.495...-0.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 06 seconds
5.Rollout18/4* 7/4eq: -0.523 (-0.274)
Player:
Opponent:
43.44% (G:5.98% B:0.58%)
56.56% (G:19.57% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.528...-0.517) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 20536239
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 15/8
[ 4] 7/3 6/3
[ 2] 8/4* 7/4
[ 1] 18/15 18/14


Mary Hickey recommends: 15/8

Once again, Neil has rolled a double that makes it necessary for us to play safe. Leaving the anchor also means leaving seven shots, and in return all we get is the 15 point that doesn’t block much of anything. It’s more dangerous to be hit now, because his board is stronger, and so we need to get more “bang for the buck” if we leave more shots than we have to. Even at the score and with his board being bigger, we might be willing to leave a couple of extra shots for a solid positional gain, but here we would be leaving seven more shots than the reasonable alternative that is fighting it, 15/8. Seven is a lot more than “a couple” of shots, and the gain is small, so 15/8 is the winner.

A note about making the 3 point: We’d like to have it, but we have to leave five shots if we make it. The gain is real, but it’s for the future, and before the future arrives we’re likely to fill in at least some of our inner board. We have plenty of well-arranged builders, and are likely to get at least a couple of turns to do it. Making our board is important but not urgent, so we can wait to do it until next turn when we likely can do it without leaving any shots.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abECC----B--bbBbb-b-b-:1:1:-1:32:9:7:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/6 8/5eq: +0.171
Player:
Opponent:
52.85% (G:5.71% B:0.22%)
47.15% (G:5.00% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.167...+0.175) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout19/4eq: +0.116 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
49.15% (G:6.67% B:0.23%)
50.85% (G:5.62% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.112...+0.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 20536239
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/6 8/5.

I had hoped to hop my spare on the 21 point into the outfield. But now I need to wait for next roll and it is important to leave no new blots. So, I’ll play the building play: 8/6 8/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abECC----B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:1:53:9:7:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10