USBGF OLM 2017-12-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaBbBBC--B--b---AABbb-bc--:1:-1:1:33:3:7:0:11:10
to play 33

1.Rollout118/15(2) 17/11eq: +0.923
Player:
Opponent:
78.09% (G:33.75% B:1.31%)
21.91% (G:4.05% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.921...+0.926) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
2.playedRollout117/11 16/10eq: +0.913 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
76.40% (G:35.88% B:1.48%)
23.60% (G:4.58% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.910...+0.915) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
3.Rollout216/10 4/1*(2)eq: +0.906 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
75.10% (G:39.19% B:0.73%)
24.90% (G:5.57% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.900...+0.912) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 05 seconds
4.Rollout218/15(2) 16/10eq: +0.904 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
77.39% (G:33.70% B:1.35%)
22.61% (G:4.61% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.899...+0.910) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 04 seconds
5.Rollout218/15(2) 17/14 16/13eq: +0.883 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
76.06% (G:35.00% B:1.52%)
23.94% (G:5.72% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.875...+0.890) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 17/11 16/10
[ 6] 16/10 4/1*(2)
[ 4] 18/15(2) 17/11
[ 1] 18/15(2) 17/14 16/13
[ 1] 17/11 4/1*(2)
[ 1] 17/15


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi) teaches
at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 17/11 16/10

When I first saw this position my gut instinct was to play 17/11 16/10. Why would this be my gut instinct? Because I am always looking to give myself good 6’s and my opponent’s bad 6’s. Look at how Neil will have to play 63 or 61. Then you start to notice that 53, 51, 43 and 41 do not play that well for Neil as well. Over the board that would be the analysis that I would do, then I would look to see if there were any better alternatives, and as nothing really jumps out I would just play 17/11 16/10.



Neil Kazaross: 32 b/22 24/22


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 115
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BdBBC--BAAb-----Bbb-bc--:1:-1:1:54:3:7:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaBbBBC--B--b----ABbb-bc-A:1:-1:1:54:3:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: +0.768
Player:
Opponent:
73.09% (G:31.97% B:1.55%)
26.91% (G:7.83% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.761...+0.775) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 6/1*eq: +0.702 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
70.82% (G:32.40% B:1.29%)
29.18% (G:9.97% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.695...+0.710) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36834253
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/16
[15] b/21 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi) teaches
at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/16

In a back game you really want to stop your opponent getting a second anchor. But after this roll we will only be ahead by 26 pips, which is not enough timing for Neil to play a back game. This deters me from hitting 6/1*. However, if we had more timing, say by moving 2 checkers from Neil’s 2 point back to his 13 point, giving us a 48 pip lead after the roll, then I would hit 6/1*, as Neil could play a successful back game from there. So let’s scratch playing 6/1*.

So after entering bar/21, we really only have the choice of 9/4 or 21/16. We are ahead in the race, so let’s run while Neil is on the bar, and if he does enter and hit us we will have lots of return shots. If he does not hit us we will be very happy.



Neil Kazaross: 64 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaBbBBC--B--b---AABbb-bc--:1:-1:1:33:3:7:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBbCBC--B--b----aCbb-bc--:1:-1:1:31:3:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout118/17* 4/1*eq: +0.902
Player:
Opponent:
75.42% (G:38.49% B:1.14%)
24.58% (G:6.18% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.895...+0.909) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout118/17* 17/14eq: +0.857 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
74.20% (G:36.03% B:1.51%)
25.80% (G:5.37% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.851...+0.864) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36834253
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 18/17* 4/1*
[ 8] 18/17*/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 18/17* 4/1*

The only safe play here is 6/2, and that is just too horrible to contemplate.

Therefore I have to hit 18/17*, and as I do not want Neil to anchor, I then have to you hit 4/1*.


Steve Sax recommends: 18/17* 4/1*

Again, there are two reasonable plays with this 31.

Both plays start with 18/17*, so the follow-up is either to hit loose (4-1*) or continue from the outfield hit to the 14 point.

Both plays have their merits and let’s examine both plays now.

The conservative play of hitting and continuing only leaves four numbers from the bar for Black and they are pretty weak hits as we must break our mid-point to hit and leave two new outfield blots.

Also, by hitting and continuing if Neil comes in with any ace, he can play a back game albeit very poorly timed.

However Black would be far better off with a poorly timed “ace-three” game than a single anchor game which still might have questionable timing.

Regarding the other play, 18/17* 4/1*, I far favor this play as the upside in game winning chances as well as gammon earns are increased by this more aggressive move.

Even if the xG rollout didn’t bear this fact out, my intuition leads me to believe that the upside of aggression is generally rewarded to that end.

And even if Black hits back, White still maintains an outfield anchor on the 18-point so he can’t be primed in. And when you couple that in tandem with the fact that the USBGF Members still have two points open in our board, without even the remote likelihood of making a fifth point in our board.

Of course, if Neil doesn’t hit, we can make a fifth point in his board with half of our numbers and if Neil doesn’t roll a three either, that means that half of the time Neil will have two checkers on the bar against a five point board which would make it pretty tough to get back into the game and be at some significant risk of being gammoned.

The rollout actually has the double hit play as only right by .044, but it’s right nonetheless as it gains 2.5% additional gammons and 1.2% additional wins.

Sounds like having your cake and eating it too!



Neil Kazaross: 21 b/24*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaBbBBC--B--b----ABbb-bc-A:1:-1:1:54:3:7:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 124
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBbBBB-ABA-b----bCc--bc--:1:-1:1:62:3:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.Rollout118/10eq: +0.594
Player:
Opponent:
71.77% (G:20.15% B:0.75%)
28.23% (G:6.72% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.588...+0.601) - [99.3%]
Duration: 41 minutes 37 seconds
2.playedRollout110/4 8/6eq: +0.583 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
71.43% (G:19.40% B:0.59%)
28.57% (G:5.65% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.578...+0.589) - [0.7%]
Duration: 37 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36834253
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 10/4 8/6
[16] 18/10
[ 2] 9/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 18/10

We could just play safe with 10/4 8/6, but then we have a very inflexible position. If we play 18/10 and are not hit then we have a very flexible position with lots of time to wait for a shot. Neil’s position will be more inflexible than ours.


Steve Sax recommends: 18/10

Here there are two basic choices for White to play our 62.

One play is to run a checker from the 18 point to our 10 point, making a new point but leaving a blot in jeopardy on our eight point.

The other play is to safety the two outfield blots (10/4 8/6) which gives White two builders to attack the blot on our one point.

Both plays have their merits and are close in equity, but as always, you have to make a choice.

My choice would be to make the first play, moving from (18-10). My reasons are that we are releasing a checker from the back anchor which increases our flexibility and also gives us three builders to make the bar point or at least deuces to make the eight-point and a five point broken block.

The risk involved in our game is that we have to leave a direct shot, but that risk is largely mitigated by the fact that Neil must come off the anchor to hit (barring 61 or 52).

A second reason to make the ten-point is that even if Black hits, White has the 18-point anchor which will give us better recovery chances when we are hit and a third reason the hit by Black isn’t too serious is that Black’s home board has deep points with a builder out of play.

All of those reasons make me feel like taking the risk at this point in time since the upside is decent and the downside isn’t too risky.

The other play (10/4 8/6) doesn’t accomplish as much, but is currently risk free.

The builders on the prime don’t rate to be deployed as a loose hit for the following reasons.

First of all, Black must remain on the 24 point for that to even be a possibility and if Black rolls a six or two more than likely he will move the back checker forward.

Secondly, even if Black doesn’t safety the back checker, White might have to leave a shot anyway so the loose hit would be a mandatory risk in any case.

Third, if Black doesn’t safety, he still might make a constructive move which would leave a shot in another part of the board, 31 for example, which makes Black’s five point and leaves a shot on the 17-point.

And if that is the case, hitting loose would be equivalent to a safer move so the loose hit isn’t any bonus for White to achieve conversely not too much for Black to worry about.

Also, while I would prefer to move off the 18 point immediately. By playing safe (10/4 8/6), Black isn’t terribly likely to improve our position quickly so moving a single checker off of the 18 point and leaving an indirect shot or even direct shot isn’t too risky because of the inherent weaknesses of Black’s position as I discussed before.

It’s a close play but I favor 18/10 because of the advantages of making the play when we are not hit, and the lack of significant risk even if we are hit.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBbCBC--B--b----bCc--bc--:1:-1:-1:31:3:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.677
Player:
Opponent:
28.58% (G:6.69% B:0.58%)
71.42% (G:27.64% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.683...-0.671) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 2/1eq: -0.729 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
24.59% (G:5.05% B:0.20%)
75.41% (G:23.54% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.734...-0.724) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout16/2eq: -0.775 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
23.08% (G:3.92% B:0.15%)
76.92% (G:24.18% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.780...-0.770) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36834253
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 6/5.

I think I should risk making my 5 point, since if I play passively I will often have issues playing my next roll constructively. I will be gammoned somewhat more often after making my 5 point since it leaves a 2nd exposed blot, but this surely will result in enough compensating extra wins and gammons for me.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBbCBC--B--b----aCbb-bc--:1:-1:1:31:3:7:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 145
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=abB-BBB-A-A-bB---bCc--bc--:1:-1:1:22:3:7:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/9(2)eq: +0.997
Player:
Opponent:
81.25% (G:32.56% B:2.59%)
18.75% (G:4.21% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.990...+1.003) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 52 seconds
2.Rollout113/11 13/9 10/8eq: +0.962 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
80.58% (G:31.22% B:2.49%)
19.42% (G:4.53% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.956...+0.969) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 17 seconds
3.Rollout118/14 13/11(2)eq: +0.959 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
80.31% (G:31.42% B:2.58%)
19.69% (G:4.61% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.952...+0.966) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout118/14 13/11 10/8eq: +0.959 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
80.46% (G:31.29% B:2.48%)
19.54% (G:4.62% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.953...+0.965) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 18 seconds
5.Rollout113/11 13/9 8/6eq: +0.954 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
80.03% (G:31.51% B:2.49%)
19.97% (G:4.86% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.948...+0.959) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 14 seconds
6.Rollout118/16 13/11(2) 10/8eq: +0.949 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
80.32% (G:30.47% B:2.49%)
19.68% (G:4.37% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.943...+0.955) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 06 seconds
7.Rollout118/14 13/11 8/6eq: +0.947 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
79.70% (G:32.11% B:2.69%)
20.30% (G:5.61% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.941...+0.953) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 51 seconds
8.Rollout118/16 13/9 10/8eq: +0.946 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
79.39% (G:32.48% B:3.00%)
20.61% (G:5.99% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.940...+0.952) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 24 seconds
9.Rollout118/14 10/6eq: +0.937 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
79.62% (G:31.34% B:2.45%)
20.38% (G:5.08% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.930...+0.943) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 41 seconds
10.Rollout113/7 10/8eq: +0.935 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
79.56% (G:31.84% B:2.49%)
20.44% (G:5.58% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.928...+0.941) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 54 seconds
11.Rollout118/14 8/4eq: +0.935 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
79.45% (G:31.30% B:2.48%)
20.55% (G:4.94% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.929...+0.941) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 55 seconds
12.Rollout118/16(2) 18/14eq: +0.930 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
80.57% (G:29.00% B:2.29%)
19.43% (G:4.74% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.924...+0.937) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 54 seconds
13.Rollout118/16(2) 13/11 10/8eq: +0.928 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
80.13% (G:29.75% B:2.45%)
19.87% (G:5.02% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.922...+0.935) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 22 seconds
14.Rollout118/16 13/11(2) 8/6eq: +0.926 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
79.21% (G:30.88% B:2.49%)
20.79% (G:4.82% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.920...+0.933) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 06 seconds
15.Rollout118/16(3) 10/8eq: +0.922 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
80.72% (G:27.98% B:2.12%)
19.28% (G:4.16% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.916...+0.928) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 54 seconds
16.Rollout113/11(2) 10/6eq: +0.912 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
79.14% (G:30.09% B:2.27%)
20.86% (G:4.60% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.906...+0.918) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 53 seconds
17.Rollout118/16 13/9 8/6eq: +0.900 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
77.85% (G:32.26% B:2.97%)
22.15% (G:7.11% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.893...+0.906) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 54 seconds
18.Rollout118/14 13/9eq: +0.896 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
78.03% (G:32.57% B:3.09%)
21.97% (G:8.06% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.889...+0.903) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67951680
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 13/9(2)
[10] 18/16(3) 10/8
[ 4] 13/11 13/9 10/8
[ 2] 18/16(3) 8/6
[ 2] 18/16 13/11(2) 10/8
[ 2] 13/11(2) 10/6
[ 1] 18/14 10/6
[ 1] 10/4 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi) teaches
at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/9(2)

Over the board I would have played 13/9 13/11 10/8. I want to make my 3 point so would have focused everything on that.

Looking at more closely, I like 13/9(2) as again it focuses on making the 3 point, but also it makes all of Neil’s 6’s bad. This to me is the deciding factor.



Neil Kazaross: 32 b/22 24/22


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 124
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBbBBB-ABA-b----bCc--bc--:1:-1:1:62:3:7:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bB-BBB-----bC---bCca-bc-A:1:-1:1:55:3:7:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout1Bar/20* 20/10 18/13eq: +0.928
Player:
Opponent:
79.70% (G:30.49% B:2.23%)
20.30% (G:4.97% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.925...+0.930) - [84.8%]
Duration: 3 hours 46 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/20* 20/10 13/8eq: +0.926 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
79.51% (G:30.94% B:2.38%)
20.49% (G:5.48% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.923...+0.928) - [15.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 54 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/20* 18/8 13/8eq: +0.900 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
78.75% (G:30.53% B:2.45%)
21.25% (G:5.83% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.893...+0.906) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 12 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/20* 20/15 18/8eq: +0.896 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
78.52% (G:30.67% B:2.34%)
21.48% (G:6.02% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.889...+0.902) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 43 seconds
5.Rollout2Bar/20* 20/15 13/8(2)eq: +0.882 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
78.14% (G:30.31% B:2.38%)
21.86% (G:6.15% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.875...+0.888) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 46 seconds
6.Rollout2Bar/20* 20/5eq: +0.861 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
77.72% (G:29.24% B:2.12%)
22.28% (G:5.45% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.855...+0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 16 seconds
7.Rollout2Bar/20* 13/8(3)eq: +0.820 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
76.22% (G:28.79% B:2.12%)
23.78% (G:6.12% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.814...+0.826) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 26 seconds
8.Rollout2Bar/20* 18/13 18/8eq: +0.781 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
74.66% (G:30.01% B:2.63%)
25.34% (G:8.95% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.773...+0.788) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33935990
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33935990
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] b/20*/10 13/8
[12] b/20*/10 18/13
[ 6] b/20* 18/8 13/8
[ 2] b/20*/5
[ 1] b/20* 18/13 18/8
[ 1] b/20 13/8 13/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20*/10 13/8

When I first saw this position, I thought that I wanted to grab a solid asset, our 8 point and just play bar/20* 18/8 13/8. The trouble with this play is 33 by Neil is devastating. Bill Robertie calls situations where one roll is so powerful that you cannot make the play you want to “silver bullet positions”. This is a silver bullet position, and we will have to look for something hours.

After I hit I really want to make my 9, 8, 7 or 3 point. Therefore my first 3 fives will be played bar/20*/10. Now I have a choice of playing 13/8 (the aggressive play) or 18/13 (the Conservative play). At this score I will make the aggressive play of 13/8.


Steve Sax recommends: b/20* 18/8 13/8

There are quiet a few choices here in playing 55 for White and each of them has their plusses and minuses.

First, my choice is to hit and make the eight-point by playing 18/8 13/8. That leaves three stripped points in the outfields but only leaves the checker on the 20 point in jeopardy.

The only number I’m really concerned with is 33 which enters and points on me and plays a fourth three from Black’s six to his three-point.

So you might ask me, why leave any joker at all? Well, each of the top two candidates has their drawbacks as well.

Both top plays are close in equity so let’s take a look at them now.

If we make play #1 (b/20*/10 18/13), we don’t leave any return shots at all, but we fail to put any checker on the eight-point as a potential blocker or attacker.

If Neil comes in with any three or ace-deuce, we have checkers seven and ten away from hitting and are unlikely to be able to put Black on the bar.

The benefit of that move, is that we can’t be hit and are prepared to clear our back point. Although I don’t think that is the highest priority as the priorities seem to be in order, (making the three-point, making the bar-point, making the eight or nine-point and then finally clearing the 18-point).

Because Black’s offensive position is a bit weak with his forward inner-board points and a piece out of play, White seemingly should be able to concentrate on offensive aspirations rather than playing safe.

Looking at play #2, (b/20*/10 13/8) leaves only a 35 but focuses a little more on making the three-point, the bar-point or certainly the eight-point.

And while I wouldn’t like giving Black a 17-1 shot, the penalty for being hit is relatively minor as White only has one checker in jeopardy and as stated before Black’s offensive position isn’t too ominous at this point.

That brings us back to my play, play #3 (b/20* 18/8 13/8). That leaves a 33 joker but barring that, we have made as much offensive structure as we can at the moment.

But for some unknown reason, my play doesn’t win many more gammons than the “safer” moves.

The only thing I can think of is that the 2.77% of the time when Black rolls 3-3, that takes some gammon winning games out of the pool as I will lose just under a third of those games or .88% overall.

And from those games, I forfeit some of my gammon wins as I go from 30% to win a gammon to 25% to win a gammon after Black rolls the 3-3 following my 5-5 move.

That doesn’t seem to add up to a whole lot and considering the structure I’m giving up by making the other two candidate moves I would still make my move.

If there is something I’m overlooking, feel free to point it out in the comments section but at this point I’m not seeing it and stand by b/20* 18/8 13/8.



Neil Kazaross: 22 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 145
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=abB-BBB-A-A-bB---bCc--bc--:1:-1:1:22:3:7:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BCBA----bC---dCe--bA--:1:-1:1:53:3:7:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout17/2 5/2eq: +0.342
Player:
Opponent:
61.39% (G:22.88% B:0.88%)
38.61% (G:14.19% B:1.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.334...+0.350) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout123/18 7/4eq: +0.273 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
59.24% (G:20.03% B:0.69%)
40.76% (G:12.69% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.265...+0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33935990
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 7/2 5/2
[ 3] 23/18 7/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/2 5/2

Even after the roll we will be 8 pips behind in the race, so any sort of running play that involves 23/18 is to be avoided.

We have a chance to make an inner board point with 7/2 5/2, and I like this with as it makes a lot of Neil’s Numbers very awkward. It is a good exercise to go through all the numbers, it is easy to see that a lot of Neil’s 1’s will be awkward.

I would rather make a point, than leave the bar point slotted.


Steve Sax recommends: 7/2 5/2

Having doubled White didn’t roll the desired six they were seeking, but 53 can be played in a constructive way.

By making the two point, we block Neil’s double aces not to mention making an additional point in their board which should our forward progress a little easier since the boardage advantage is even greater.

I don’t see anything else on the board that is traditionally constructive (can I hit, can I make a point or can I escape a back checker), so the two point is it!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bB-BBB-----bC---cCd--bb-A:1:-1:-1:43:3:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout18/1eq: -0.450
Player:
Opponent:
34.73% (G:14.34% B:0.58%)
65.27% (G:24.62% B:1.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.453...-0.446) - [99.5%]
Duration: 5 hours 32 minutes
2.playedRollout18/5 6/2eq: -0.456 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
34.25% (G:15.03% B:0.68%)
65.75% (G:24.69% B:1.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.460...-0.453) - [0.5%]
Duration: 5 hours 36 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33935990
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2* 6/2.

I can run 24/14, leaving only 13 shots which perhaps is the DMP play. Or I can point on my 2 point. If I run, I effectively leave more than 13 shots, since with 11, they will certainly switch points. They may think about switching with 33 or even 44. Running looks like it will lose somewhat more gammons than pointing and also win fewer. I can be gammoned after running if hit and I dance a while, or later on my remaining checker may be attacked in my opponent’s board. Of course by pointing, I may end up stuck on the 24 point for a while and that can lead to a gammon.

With 11 checkers in the zone, I may be able to continue the attack on their back checker. All this means that I should point.



USBGF Members: 32 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bB-BBB-----bC---cCd--bb-A:1:-1:-1:43:3:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgXG Roller++8/1eq: -0.458
Player:
Opponent:
35.24% (G:13.08% B:0.26%)
64.76% (G:23.18% B:1.31%)
2.playedXG Roller++8/5 6/2eq: -0.472 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
34.40% (G:13.66% B:0.27%)
65.60% (G:23.10% B:1.31%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 6/2.

Well this is a very poor roll! Breaking the midpoint, leaving two blots and losing outfield control, is out of the question. So I need to slot 8/5 and then 6/2 looks somewhat better than 5/1 to me. At least now if missed (13 shots) I have some decent diversification.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bB-BBB-----bC---bCca-bc-A:1:-1:1:55:3:7:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BCBA----bC---dCe--bA--:0:0:1:00:3:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:64.42% (G:21.66% B:0.97%)64.67% (G:22.84% B:1.07%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:35.58% (G:12.80% B:0.78%)35.33% (G:13.86% B:1.28%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.352+0.837
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.715 (-0.053)±0.015 (+0.700..+0.730)
played Double/Take:+0.767±0.020 (+0.748..+0.787)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.233)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33935990
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] Double
[ 6] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We are behind in the match 8 away 4 away. Our gammon value is 0.6, slightly raised.

According to O’Hagan’s Law if we have a net of 9 market losers and are doing ok on the rest of the rolls we should double. So any 6 plus 53 (making the 2 point may be Market Loss) and 55 making the 8 point gives us 20 Market Losers. We have no anti-jokers at all. A anti-joker is a roll after which our opponent should double us. We are doing ok on all our other rolls so double.


Steve Sax recommends: Double

To me the first question that comes to mind looking at this position is, “Should White double?”.

It wouldn’t seem to be a cube at a neutral score, but since White is eight away against four away, the double starts to look more appealing.

What I like about White’s position is that we have half of our numbers to make the bar point (or eight point with 55). And if we achieve that, we will be well on our way to securing victory.

Black isn’t finished of course if White makes the bar-point, but it’s an extreme uphill battle as Neil has two checkers back on his 24-point and a demanding task to get to the edge of the prime and escape.

Black is not terribly likely to be gammoned, but he can almost never re-double unless he gets to the rare position where he can’t win a gammon but is still over 85% to win.

And even if White doesn’t make the bar point, Black needs to somehow get those same back checkers out, safety them and get past White’s 18-point anchor.

What makes the game so strong for White, even trailing sixteen in the race, is that currently Black only has his three and six-points in his home board, so White can play extra aggressively in their effort to block Black in.

Neil, however has a pretty easy take, since he’s ahead a few rolls in the race and even if White makes the bar-point, he can make an effort to gain the 22-point without a tremendous effort as White currently doesn’t have enough checkers in the zone to thwart Black’s attempt to gain a forward anchor or at the least, escaping one of his back checkers.

And because of this White’s gammon chances aren’t overwhelming although still significant at nearly 22%.

One thing I like to do when posed with a cube question like this is to manipulate the score to see where the first point of double is.

So while it’s clear to me (and correct) that White has a double at “eight away-four away”, I’m curious to see when it is first correct to cube. Without rolling it out, the first point of “no double” appears to be when you take three points away from Black and he only leads “seven away-eight away”.

And if you go the other direction with points and start to add points to trailer (White in this case) they have a marginal double at “six away-four away”, but not from “five away-four away”.

In the future, be very away of the special score of “eight away-four away” where seemingly “no-double” positions can be huge cubes.


Neil Kazaross takes.

I think doubling this position would be too early at a “normal” score, noting only 8 checkers in the zone and that 19 rolls don’t make the bar point and that I have plenty of counterplay. But here, at the score, this cube comes at a good time. At this score, my gammon cost is somewhat higher than normal, but more importantly my recube vig is considerably less as once I recube, I’ll be playing DMP with an 8 cube if the USBGF Members take. Recubing will also negate any gammons I may win.

All this being said, I am far from beaten in this position and still should have a clear take.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BCBA----bC---dCe--bA--:1:-1:1:53:3:7:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 165
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBCa----cD---cCe--bA--:0:0:1:61:3:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/7* 6/5eq: +0.524
Player:
Opponent:
58.19% (G:20.40% B:0.78%)
41.81% (G:15.37% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.508...+0.539) - [79.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
2.xgRollout113/7* 7/6eq: +0.514 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
58.30% (G:21.69% B:0.72%)
41.70% (G:14.31% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.499...+0.530) - [20.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33935990
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 13/7* 6/5
[17] 13/7*/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi) teaches
at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7* 6/5

After we hit 13/7* and play the 1, we will still be behind in the race by 10 pips. If we are behind in the race then I want to prime. If I want to prime I will leave the 7 point slotted and play 6/5.

Note that we have the stronger board here, and after we leave the 7 point slotted we now have good 6’s. It is always important to give yourself good 6’s.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--BCBA----cC---cCe--bA--:0:0:-1:51:3:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 13/8eq: -0.773
Player:
Opponent:
35.20% (G:13.93% B:1.41%)
64.80% (G:22.79% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.791...-0.754) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 6/1eq: -0.827 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
34.90% (G:14.70% B:1.22%)
65.10% (G:24.18% B:1.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.847...-0.808) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24 8/3eq: -0.937 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:
33.40% (G:12.39% B:1.00%)
66.60% (G:23.86% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.954...-0.920) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33935990
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 13/8.

Bar/24 13/8 is the only move to not worsen my position.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BCBA----bC---dCe--bA--:0:0:1:00:3:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 177
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-ABD-----dC-a-cCd--bB--:0:0:1:62:3:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout123/15*eq: -0.108
Player:
Opponent:
46.25% (G:13.02% B:0.54%)
53.75% (G:23.28% B:2.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.124...-0.092) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 58 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 6/4eq: -0.146 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
44.60% (G:12.34% B:0.41%)
55.40% (G:18.65% B:2.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.162...-0.129) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3860162
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 23/15*
[11] 13/7 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/15*

Looking at this position in terms of Paul Magriel’s safe versus bold criteria:

  • We have the stronger board as we have the better points,
  • We have an anchor, a low anchor but still an anchor, and
  • We have more checkers back

This is a pretty good indication we want to play boldly. I was always taught to count every checker of mine on my opponent’s 18 point as being 1/2 a checker back. Therefore I have 3.5 checkers back compared to Neil’s one checker back.

One of the main reasons I want to hit is I want to stop Neil making any more inner board points in his board. Or to think of it another way, we are so far behind in the race, entering into a hitting contest seems like a very viable game plan to me. We are behind in the match and would really welcome a volatile situation where we can turn the cube.

I hit 23/15*.


Steve Sax recommends: 23/15*

White has two attractive choices here, trailing 8 away 4 away.

We can move a back checker with 23/15*, hitting, or make our own 4 point and slot the bar point.

Using my method of achieving assets, I find that hitting and escaping accomplishes a bit more than making the four-point and slotting the bar-point.

By hitting and escaping the back checker, White accomplishes two goals. That however is mitigated by the fact that Black has 19 numbers to hit the unprotected blot on White’s four-point.

So the net goals gained is 1.5. Now, you have to be careful in using this method for two reasons.

First, each goal gained or lost is in context with the specific position. It often comes down to quality of goals achieved rather than quantity, so you might have to rate the goals achieved with a plus or minus depending on how significant the goal achieved.

And since the rating of how significant the goal gained is somewhat subjective to the uninitiated player and a chore to analyze for the better player, it might be best to keep it simple and just tabulate goals gained or lost.

Now, getting back to the alternative play, making the four-point and unstacking our six point is definitely a decent goal to achieve. And the second part of the move playing 13/7 with the six is somewhat of a neutral move.

The reason is that Black is an underdog to hit that checker, but if we don’t, White is about even money to either make his bar-point or use that slotted checker on the seven-point to make an inner-board point.

So it seems like when comparing goals gained between the two plays that escaping and hitting is about 1/2 a goal better than the positional play.

I have not thoroughly tested this system in a variety of positions and that is a project for another day, but in this case it does seem like the analysis of half a goal gained is in line with the hitting play being better according to xG by .055.

Another thing to note and one which was key in my decision to make the hitting play was the fact that we have an active builder on our eight point.

Because of the active builder, Black has more opportunities to improve our position by making an additional inner-board point on his following roll (after the point and slot move).

According to xG, if you move the active builder to the six-point the moves are just about dead even.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 169
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-a-ABD-----dC-A-cCd--bA--:0:0:-1:51:3:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout1Bar/24 13/8eq: -0.118
Player:
Opponent:
49.51% (G:18.93% B:1.61%)
50.49% (G:15.73% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.125...-0.112) - [93.4%]
Duration: 14 hours 56 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/24 23/18eq: -0.125 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
49.86% (G:17.24% B:1.62%)
50.14% (G:16.08% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.132...-0.119) - [6.6%]
Duration: 14 hours 33 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33935990
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 13/8.

There are only two reasonable choices for my 5 so let’s compare 13/8 to 23/18. 23/18 goes along with the theme of moving back checkers forward when clearly leading in the race but pays off somewhat to hit and cover jokers. 13/8 leaves fewer jokers and still retains a spare on the mid point and will give me a double shot if my opponents can’t cover their 4 point. It also results in their 6’s playing less constructively since they don’t hit. 23/18 allows me to make the 18 point when not hit, and I wouldn’t mind holding that for a couple of turns at least. 23/18 also allows me to safety that checker with a 5 if not hit.

My race lead (currently 21 pips) causes me to give a slight nod to b/24 23/18.



USBGF Members: 11 15/13 6/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 165
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBCa----dD---cCd--bA--:0:0:-1:43:3:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/6eq: -0.351
Player:
Opponent:
44.93% (G:15.68% B:1.26%)
55.07% (G:18.96% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.367...-0.334) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
2.Rollout118/11eq: -0.389 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
44.20% (G:13.71% B:1.63%)
55.80% (G:18.23% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.403...-0.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33935990
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/6.

This is another tough choice between 18/11 and 13/6. Since I want to make the 18 point to counteract my opponent’s good 3 point board, and noting that I have no blotless play, I will try 13/6. They currently have only 7 checkers in the zone, so the risk of this backfiring and resulting in me getting quickly attacked is small.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 165
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBCa----cD---cCe--bA--:0:0:1:61:3:7:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 166
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aBDBa---dC---cCd--b--A:0:0:1:32:3:7:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 7/4*eq: -0.046
Player:
Opponent:
46.82% (G:14.03% B:0.48%)
53.18% (G:19.34% B:1.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.062...-0.030) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/3eq: -0.088 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
45.70% (G:12.78% B:0.40%)
54.30% (G:16.20% B:1.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.103...-0.073) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 18/15eq: -0.158 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
44.44% (G:12.28% B:0.51%)
55.56% (G:19.09% B:1.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.173...-0.143) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/20eq: -0.163 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
43.84% (G:10.71% B:0.41%)
56.16% (G:14.06% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.178...-0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3860162
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/23 7/4*
[11] b/20
[ 5] b/23 6/3
[ 3] b/23 18/15


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 7/4*

I normally think about how I would play a move at a normal match score, then after I’ve decided that apply it to the particular score. Here at a normal match score I would still hit 7/4* rather than 6/3 the passive play. I know that my weakness is that I hate passive plays and can be too aggressive. Here we do have the slightly better board, but unfortunately we only have 8 checkers in the zone. Normally you need more than 8 checkers in the zone to launch an attack, but in this position I find the alternative 6/3 too passive. So if at a normal match score I am hitting 7/4*, then trailing 8 away 4 away, I have to attack.


Steve Sax recommends: b/23 6/3

Being down in the race, it would stand to reason that White should hit and try to contain Black here. However, there are two things making me think that might not be the best idea.

First of all, if White hits 7/4*, Black can hit him back with 19 numbers, two of which hit two checkers.

And while Neil is down significantly in the race, he doesn’t want to get even more down in the race without significant compensation.

The second reason that I would prefer not to hit, is that we have a long way to go to bring our position home.

We have to not only safety our back checkers, but somehow get past Neil’s 18 point, which is eliciting major control over our outfield.

That being the case, I would slot 6/3 and try to develop my position slowly as we bring our pieces around the board.

An added factor in me liking this play is that we don’t have a strong attack set up. We have limited builders to attack and still have to safety our two back checkers.

However, according the XG the right move is to hit. Potential reasons for this include the fact that Black will stay out 11% of the time.

Also, we come in from the bar with 12, 32 and 15, which allows Neil to resume the attack in an effort to hit Black and make new points.

I favored b/23 6/3, and my play was wrong. However, it wasn’t wrong by a tremendous amount so I’m appreciative to learn something from looking at the correct play while at the same time, my play wasn’t too bad either.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---ABDAa---dC---cCd--bA--:0:0:-1:41:3:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout1Bar/21* 17/16eq: +0.201
Player:
Opponent:
56.24% (G:22.02% B:2.43%)
43.76% (G:11.57% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.184...+0.217) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21* 6/5eq: +0.026 (-0.175)
Player:
Opponent:
52.64% (G:19.91% B:2.20%)
47.36% (G:13.33% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.009...+0.043) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21* 3/2*eq: -0.129 (-0.329)
Player:
Opponent:
49.88% (G:17.69% B:1.61%)
50.12% (G:15.72% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.145...-0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/24 17/13eq: -0.147 (-0.347)
Player:
Opponent:
49.51% (G:14.97% B:1.33%)
50.49% (G:16.07% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.161...-0.133) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3860162
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21* 17/16.

I am happy to hit b/21* and then the ace is played 17/16 as I have no desires to get fancy and just want to be able to head for home with my back checkers.



USBGF Members: 32 b/23 7/4*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 177
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---ABD--a--dC---cCd--bB--:0:0:-1:62:3:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 16/10eq: +0.128
Player:
Opponent:
54.67% (G:20.42% B:3.19%)
45.33% (G:13.12% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.111...+0.145) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/17eq: +0.052 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
53.94% (G:18.01% B:2.21%)
46.06% (G:14.18% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.035...+0.069) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3860162
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 16/10.

It can be easy to play when there’s only two choices. Here I much prefer 16/10 leaving only 3 hit and cover jokers and putting me in position to add a key 3rd point in my board if missed. If hit I hope to be able to enter (ideally with a return hit) and keep playing.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 177
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-ABD-----dC-a-cCd--bB--:0:0:1:62:3:7:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-EBB---dC---cCd-aa---:0:0:1:31:3:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.073
Player:
Opponent:
50.79% (G:8.31% B:0.27%)
49.21% (G:9.43% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.062...+0.085) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
2.Rollout118/15 6/5eq: +0.019 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
49.62% (G:9.13% B:0.36%)
50.38% (G:13.75% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.006...+0.033) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
3.Rollout118/14eq: +0.013 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
49.59% (G:7.58% B:0.25%)
50.41% (G:10.47% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.001...+0.024) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
4.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: -0.004 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
48.70% (G:10.29% B:0.40%)
51.30% (G:14.38% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.018...+0.010) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
5.Rollout113/9eq: -0.006 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
49.08% (G:8.38% B:0.33%)
50.92% (G:11.48% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.019...+0.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
6.Rollout16/5 6/3eq: -0.008 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
48.93% (G:8.69% B:0.37%)
51.07% (G:11.95% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.020...+0.005) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
7.Rollout16/2eq: -0.045 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
47.90% (G:7.44% B:0.21%)
52.10% (G:9.78% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.056...-0.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3860162
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/5 6/5
[ 4] 18/14
[ 3] 6/2
[ 3] 18/15 6/5
[ 1] 13/9
[ 1] 6/5 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 6/5

Those 2 blots in Neil’s board give us an awful lot of freedom to put our checkers where we want them.

I looked at 13/9 trying for a stronger prime, and I looked at 18/14 which again duplicates some of the hitting numbers and aims more builders at the back of our 3 prime.

But gaps immediately in front of an anchor are bad, so you would have to consider 8/5 6/5. This gives us another inner board point, effectively slots the back of the prime and challenges Neil to a blot hitting contest when he has 2 inner board points and we have none. This is the constructive move on the move I would make.


Steve Sax recommends: 8/5 6/5

I think White should make the five point here.

You should make a constructive move every turn if it’s not too risky and in this case it’s not.

That is because Black has two blots in his board and White has a high anchor.

And while it’s true that Black can hit an cover with any four (except 46), we have to not only leave the anchor to do so, but also leave a blot exposed in our board (barring 41).

And since making the five point is as close to risk free as possible, making the five-point will give White the chance of making a four prime on the following roll.

That will block Black’s forward progress and also give us a better chance of coming off the 18 point anchor with a bit more confidence.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 149
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBA---dC---cCd-aa---:0:0:-1:41:3:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout121/17* 4/3eq: -0.032
Player:
Opponent:
51.63% (G:15.34% B:1.21%)
48.37% (G:13.70% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.047...-0.018) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout18/4 6/5eq: -0.128 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
47.57% (G:9.66% B:0.63%)
52.43% (G:8.59% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.139...-0.117) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
3.Rollout18/3eq: -0.170 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:
46.46% (G:9.35% B:0.51%)
53.54% (G:8.68% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.181...-0.159) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3860162
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/17* 4/3.

The score is not nearly extreme enough for me to cling to my anchor like a life preserver. 21/17* 4/3 hits and covers and should give me a slight advantage whereas safer plays leave me an underdog.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 166
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aBDBa---dC---cCd--b--A:0:0:1:23:3:7:0:11:10
to play 23

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 163
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-E-B--AdD---dCe------:0:0:1:64:3:7:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout113/7 11/7eq: +0.050
Player:
Opponent:
50.59% (G:6.89% B:0.22%)
49.41% (G:8.18% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.040...+0.060) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout118/8eq: +0.023 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
49.61% (G:7.31% B:0.26%)
50.39% (G:8.67% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.011...+0.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28626127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 13/7 11/7
[ 5] 18/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 11/7

While 18/8 looks flexible, it leaves 6 rolls that hit our blot on the 11 point. This is just too many. I would rather grab the 7 point with 13/7 11/7 and see what develops.


Steve Sax recommends: 13/7 11/7

Again the race is very close so the objective as White will be to make a constructive move that doesn’t put us at much risk.

Making the bar point is a natural here. It makes a blocking point and doesn’t leave any shots at all.

If we play 18/8, we leave a six number shot to be sent back in the race. And while our position is relatively flexible when we are missed, we still haven’t made any concrete development on your side of the board.

If you went to a restaurant where you could get steak and eggs for 10 dollars or you could get steak but no eggs for 12 dollars, which special would you order?


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-EBB---dC---dCe------:0:0:-1:43:3:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout18/4 6/3eq: -0.113
Player:
Opponent:
47.70% (G:9.19% B:0.52%)
52.30% (G:7.57% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.118...-0.108) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout18/5 6/2eq: -0.132 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
47.26% (G:9.27% B:0.58%)
52.74% (G:7.93% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.137...-0.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 51 minutes
3.Rollout28/5 8/4eq: -0.136 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
47.30% (G:9.33% B:0.60%)
52.70% (G:7.61% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.147...-0.124) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
4.Rollout213/6eq: -0.149 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
46.79% (G:8.71% B:0.46%)
53.21% (G:7.79% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.161...-0.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3860162
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3860162
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/3.

How can I best play constructively and slot needed points and remain flexible without leaving a direct shot? 8/4 6/3 is the first thing that comes to mind and the usual play in this early game situation.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-EBB---dC---cCd-aa---:0:0:1:31:3:7:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-12-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 170
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-B--AdD--acBe-----A:0:0:1:61:3:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/18eq: -0.013
Player:
Opponent:
48.31% (G:10.27% B:0.36%)
51.69% (G:12.80% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.027...+0.001) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 30 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 11/5eq: -0.048 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
47.31% (G:11.82% B:0.45%)
52.69% (G:17.54% B:1.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.064...-0.033) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 30 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24 13/7eq: -0.090 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
46.41% (G:12.13% B:0.42%)
53.59% (G:19.15% B:1.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.105...-0.074) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 48 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28626127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] b/18
[ 3] b/24 11/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/18

After entering bar/24, neither breaking the 8 point or leaving a double shot interest me so I would just play bar/18. We will only be behind in the race by 3 pips with Neil on roll.


Steve Sax recommends: b/18

White can play to the 18-point or slot either the five or seven point (we’ll rule out 8/2).

Slotting the five-point leaves Black 21 numbers to send us back and slotting the bar point leaves a whopping 29 numbers to have one of our checkers sent back.

And even if White was missed, we would be an underdog to cover the five point without breaking the eight point.

To me, playing b/18 seems so natural because the race is so close and it’s way less likely for White’s checker on the 11-point to be sent back (eight numbers).

Arguments could be made to keep the checker back on the 24-point as a way of maintaining quadrant control, but I like to take risks when they are going to pay big dividends.

Since White’s eight-point is stripped, it doesn’t seem worth it to me to take the risk of slotting.

I play b/18 and hope to improve even if modestly at first.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 163
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-B--AdD--acCe------:0:0:-1:31:3:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout124/21 9/8eq: -0.039
Player:
Opponent:
50.00% (G:9.78% B:0.54%)
50.00% (G:7.88% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.051...-0.027) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: -0.079 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
48.87% (G:9.90% B:0.38%)
51.13% (G:8.09% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.091...-0.068) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes
3.Rollout113/9eq: -0.086 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
49.60% (G:11.89% B:0.81%)
50.40% (G:11.26% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.100...-0.072) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
4.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.087 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
49.24% (G:12.56% B:0.93%)
50.76% (G:10.93% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.101...-0.073) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
5.Rollout19/5eq: -0.166 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:
47.86% (G:12.46% B:0.91%)
52.14% (G:12.32% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.181...-0.151) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28626127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 9/8.

Here (and notably at the score) I should content myself with a basically even holding game rather than trying for more. But, if this were a gammon go score, I’d just make my 5 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 163
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-E-B--AdD---dCe------:0:0:1:64:3:7:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C--AdD--acAe----A-:0:0:1:64:3:7:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/18 8/4*eq: +0.214
Player:
Opponent:
53.17% (G:13.93% B:0.50%)
46.83% (G:13.08% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.199...+0.229) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 11/7eq: +0.150 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
52.11% (G:12.42% B:0.57%)
47.89% (G:13.58% B:1.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.137...+0.163) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28626127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 24/18 8/4*
[ 7] 13/7 11/7
[ 1] 24/18 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi) teaches
at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 8/4*

At a normal match score I would play 24/18 grabbing an advanced anchor and then I would fight for the 4 point with 8/4*. In the early game it is very important to fight for the 5 or 4 point.

At this score when we are 8 away 4 away it is even more important to make the aggressive play, so I will play 24/18 8/4*.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 149
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--A-E-B--AdD--acBe------:0:0:-1:11:3:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout1Bar/21*eq: -0.110
Player:
Opponent:
48.98% (G:14.38% B:1.28%)
51.02% (G:12.10% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.125...-0.095) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5(2)eq: -0.327 (-0.217)
Player:
Opponent:
44.27% (G:11.44% B:0.88%)
55.73% (G:14.90% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.341...-0.313) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24 9/8 6/5(2)eq: -0.445 (-0.335)
Player:
Opponent:
42.23% (G:10.19% B:0.89%)
57.77% (G:15.94% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.458...-0.432) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28626127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21*.

Behind in the race, and with my opponents having a fine advanced anchor, I must hit to gain pips and also to try to get my own anchor.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 170
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-B--AdD--acBe-----A:0:0:1:61:3:7:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 29
             
11 point match
              pip: 81
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBBA--A----------cAha-:1:1:1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout110/5 7/4eq: -0.780
Player:
Opponent:
9.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.23% (G:1.74% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.781...-0.780) - [98.0%]
Duration: 49.0 seconds
2.Rollout110/2eq: -0.781 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
9.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.06% (G:2.73% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.781...-0.780) - [2.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 01 second
3.Rollout110/5 4/1eq: -0.813 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
8.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.51% (G:3.01% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.813...-0.812) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout17/2 4/1eq: -0.847 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
7.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.21% (G:4.57% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.848...-0.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds
5.Rollout110/5 6/3eq: -0.847 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
7.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.63% (G:3.19% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.848...-0.847) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds
6.Rollout17/4 6/1eq: -0.851 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
7.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.27% (G:4.56% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.851...-0.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds
7.Rollout17/2 5/2eq: -0.852 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
7.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.47% (G:4.45% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.853...-0.851) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 23 seconds
8.Rollout17/2 6/3eq: -0.852 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
7.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.35% (G:4.54% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.853...-0.852) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds
9.Rollout110/7 6/1eq: -0.857 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
7.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.57% (G:4.38% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.857...-0.856) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
10.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: -0.893 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
6.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.56% (G:5.56% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.894...-0.893) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second
11.Rollout16/1 4/1eq: -0.897 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
6.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.51% (G:6.10% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.898...-0.896) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds
12.Rollout16/1 5/2eq: -0.901 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
6.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.62% (G:6.24% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.902...-0.901) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 27 seconds
13.Rollout122/14eq: -1.002 (-0.222)
Player:
Opponent:
0.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.95% (G:0.30% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.002...-1.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35752513
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 10/5 7/4
[16] 10/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 10/2

Neil leaves a shot with 65, 64, 63, 54, 53 and 43 or 12 rolls. If we hit roughly 1/3 of the time so call it as 4 rolls.

So let’s stay put, this roll.

To keep ourselves from having to run next roll, I would save a 6 with 10/2.


Steve Sax recommends: 10/5 7/4

I think it’s worth it for White to wait one more roll to get a shot. So if we get a shot and hits it, I like bringing two checkers to our home board (10/5 7/4).

That way, if White gets a shot and hits, their distribution is better than had they played 10/2.

Additionally, White are putting themselves at a slightly greater risk of being gammoned by playing 10/2. The reason for this is that White will still have two pieces to bring home and then take a checker off to save the gammon.

If Black rolls a big double, we will be left with eight checkers left. We might not even need a double if we take two off every roll and White rolls for example 43 three times in a row. Bringing two checkers in (10/5 7/4) will save the gammon after a big double if we even roll as another example 42 three times in a row, where we will be gammoned easily if they play 10/2.

Where White gains some small compensation for playing 10/2 is that if Black takes two checkers off the following roll, White has 15 numbers that we can stay with and not break our board. If we play (10/5 7/4), we only have 13 numbers that maintains our closed board.

Perhaps there something else to the position that I’m not bringing up, because although it does seem close, the decision for me is fairly clear to play 10/5 7/4.



Neil Kazaross: 54 4/0(2)
USBGF Members: 22 22/14
Neil Kazaross: 11 2/0(2)
USBGF Members: 32 14/9
Neil Kazaross: 65 4/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 63 9/0
Neil Kazaross: 54 2/0(2)

Neil Kazaross wins two points, and leads 4-away/8-away.



USBGF Members: 62 24/18 13/11


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AeD---cAe----A-:0:0:-1:43:3:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout124/21 13/9eq: -0.331
Player:
Opponent:
44.17% (G:11.66% B:0.99%)
55.83% (G:14.52% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.336...-0.326) - [91.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 21 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 24/20eq: -0.336 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
44.17% (G:10.65% B:0.96%)
55.83% (G:14.21% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.341...-0.331) - [9.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 29 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28626127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 13/9.

It pays to know how to respond to commonly played opening rolls for money or when score doesn’t matter. Here, 24/21 13/9 is somewhat superior to 24/21 24/20 and no other play has any merit. 24/21 13/9, the minor split, triplicates 2’s and doesn’t come under the gun of a new builder.

24/21 24/20, advancing both back checkers, also duplicates 6’s and strives for an advanced anchor which I’d love to have, but I also don’t want to get attacked! So I go with the usual 24/21 13/9.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C--AdD--acAe----A-:0:0:1:64:3:7:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 37
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBB-A-------A---bcAga-:1:1:1:61:3:5:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout116/9eq: -0.759
Player:
Opponent:
10.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.05% (G:2.26% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.759...-0.758) - [82.7%]
Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds
2.playedRollout116/10 8/7eq: -0.759 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
10.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.05% (G:2.27% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.759...-0.758) - [17.3%]
Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds
3.Rollout116/15 8/2eq: -0.772 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
10.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.18% (G:3.39% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.772...-0.771) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout18/1eq: -0.775 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
10.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.12% (G:3.95% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.776...-0.775) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds
5.Rollout116/10 2/1eq: -0.780 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
10.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.97% (G:3.12% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.781...-0.779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
6.Rollout116/10 4/3eq: -0.782 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
10.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.99% (G:2.90% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.783...-0.782) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 59 seconds
7.Rollout116/10 5/4eq: -0.787 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
9.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.18% (G:2.96% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.788...-0.787) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 23 seconds
8.Rollout116/10 3/2eq: -0.789 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
9.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.36% (G:3.05% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.790...-0.789) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
9.Rollout116/10 6/5eq: -0.793 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
9.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.43% (G:3.05% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.793...-0.792) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds
10.Rollout18/2 5/4eq: -0.847 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
7.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.05% (G:4.96% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.848...-0.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 08 seconds
11.Rollout18/2 6/5eq: -0.847 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
8.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.00% (G:5.14% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.848...-0.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds
12.Rollout18/2 3/2eq: -0.851 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
7.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.28% (G:4.74% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.852...-0.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 23 seconds
13.Rollout18/2 4/3eq: -0.851 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
7.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.21% (G:4.89% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.852...-0.851) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 26 seconds
14.Rollout122/15eq: -1.009 (-0.250)
Player:
Opponent:
0.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.87% (G:1.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.009...-1.009) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 17 seconds
15.Rollout122/16 8/7eq: -1.009 (-0.251)
Player:
Opponent:
0.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.89% (G:1.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.009...-1.009) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 51 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35752513
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 16/10 8/7
[ 9] 16/9
[ 1] 22/16 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/10 8/7

I will stay put with my rear checker and hope that Neil rolls 66, 55, 44 or 33.

So I have to move 16/10 with the 6. The 1 will probably be trivial but here is how I decide:

I want to minimise the number of rolls to get off the Gammon. I look at getting to my 6 point by comparing it to hitting at blot on my 6 point next roll. For example if I play 10/9 then that is the same hitting a blot when you can hit it with a 3 or 2 or 21 times. If I play 8/7 that is the same as if I could hit with a 4 or 1 which is 23 times therefore I would play 16/10 8/7. The difference is probably trivial in this case but it is worth practising. Also I have memorised all the 2 roll hitting combinations – there are not that many and it is easier than doing it over the board.

So 16/10 8/7 for me.


Steve Sax recommends:

Not too difficult a problem here. White can play the full seven pips without wasting any and maintaining his closed board.

White of course should still keep a checker back on the 22 point not only to get a shot on eight numbers, but to also not allow Black to take checkers off greedily as if White didn’t have a sentry back on the 22 point.

The six is obvious (16/10) and the ace is of little consequence whether you play (10/9), or (8/7).

Since aces are most damaging in White’s effort to save the gammon, I have a slight preference to play (8/7) as our worst gammon saving number can at least be played with perfect efficiency (7/6).



Neil Kazaross: 53 5/2 5/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 29
             
11 point match
              pip: 81
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBBA--A----------cAha-:1:1:1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 43
             
11 point match
              pip: 94
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBB-A-----------ccBh--:1:1:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout122/17 8/7eq: -0.788
Player:
Opponent:
10.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.78% (G:2.71% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.789...-0.787) - [86.3%]
Duration: 7 minutes 28 seconds
2.playedRollout122/16eq: -0.789 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
10.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.82% (G:2.68% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.789...-0.788) - [13.7%]
Duration: 7 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout122/17 2/1eq: -0.807 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
9.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.52% (G:3.77% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.808...-0.806) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout122/17 3/2eq: -0.811 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
9.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.69% (G:3.89% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.812...-0.810) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds
5.Rollout122/17 5/4eq: -0.811 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
9.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.71% (G:3.67% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.812...-0.810) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 38 seconds
6.Rollout122/17 4/3eq: -0.811 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
9.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.68% (G:3.77% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.812...-0.811) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 40 seconds
7.Rollout122/17 6/5eq: -0.812 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
9.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.82% (G:3.72% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.813...-0.812) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 10 seconds
8.Rollout18/2eq: -0.821 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
9.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.20% (G:5.26% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.822...-0.821) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35752513
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 22/16
[17] 8/2
[ 4] 22/17 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/16

We have to consider running to get off the Gammon.

The Neil’s only number that leaves a shot is 65, and this leaves a shot whether we run or not. Neil’s 22, 11 and 21 allow him to put us on the bar but that is only 4 numbers. So we should run.

I would run 22/16.


Steve Sax recommends: 22/16

In this case, I’m prepared to come off the anchor for three reasons.

First of all, by running (22/16), we get gammoned less often. In this case, we have 28 pips and three checkers to bring home and then take one checker off.

Since Black only has one checker off with a gap on his ace-point and White leaving a checker on Black’s three-point, Black will probably need to roll two big doubles to have a decent chance at a gammon.

Secondly, White doesn’t need to be worried about Black using his builders to put him on the bar. The reason for this is that numbers which he might make that move with (11, 22 and 21) would be far better used to take checkers off and not put White on the bar.

So running off the anchor has an added bonus in that it gives Black an opportunity to make a mistake on a checker play.

The third reason that White should run is that if he doesn’t, he will have a closed board with a spare on his two-point. In that case, more than likely Black will still have a two prime blocking forward movement from White so on those four numbers (1-1, 2-2 and 2-1) where White can’t escape the prime, he will be forced to break his board.



Neil Kazaross: 51 5/0 2/1


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 37
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBB-A-------A---bcAga-:1:1:1:61:3:5:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 48
             
11 point match
              pip: 102
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBB---------A--bbcBg--:1:1:1:62:3:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout116/8eq: -0.730
Player:
Opponent:
13.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.08% (G:4.73% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.732...-0.728) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
2.Rollout122/14eq: -0.748 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
13.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.95% (G:4.72% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.750...-0.746) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35752513
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 16/8
[ 1] 22/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/8

I would just play 16/8. If we did run a checker from the 22 point, then 33 and 22 become really good rolls for Neil.

33 leaves a blot if we keep the 22 point but Neil can play 6/3*(2) 5/2(2) if we run.

Neil can play 22 better by playing 6/4(2) 5/3*(2) if we leave the 22 point.

So I will just keep the 22 point and play 16/8.


Steve Sax recommends: 16/8

By playing 16/8, we don’t waste any pips and maintain your anchor and a closed board. There are a rare set of circumstances where we will wish we had run out.

Those would include times where Black didn’t clear his six-point and we roll 33.

So if Black rolls 31, 32, 34 or 35 and then White rolls 33, we will have wished we had run out as we now have to break a point in our board.

When White gives up the anchor and Black rolls 22, the dynamic is different. In this case, Black will simply take four checkers off so the only number we’re really discussing here how the difference in how 33 plays whether White maintains the anchor or not.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 48
             
11 point match
              pip: 94
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBB-A----------bbcBg--:1:1:-1:41:3:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/5 6/2eq: +0.798
Player:
Opponent:
90.32% (G:2.51% B:0.01%)
9.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.796...+0.800) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds
2.Rollout14/Off 2/1eq: +0.742 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
87.05% (G:3.97% B:0.01%)
12.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.740...+0.743) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35752513
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 6/2.

With this roll I am happy to be rid of my 6 point and avoiding bad 3’s for the moment. Note that their board is closed and a race loss is next to impossible, and a gammon win very unlikely. So when I have a clearly safest play, I don’t get distracted and do anything else.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 43
             
11 point match
              pip: 94
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBB-A-----------ccBh--:1:1:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 55
             
11 point match
              pip: 110
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BBCBA--------A--ccbBg--:1:1:1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.Rollout116/8eq: -0.701
Player:
Opponent:
14.96% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
85.04% (G:4.42% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.702...-0.700) - [93.8%]
Duration: 28 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout116/11 5/2eq: -0.702 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
15.19% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
84.81% (G:4.84% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.703...-0.701) - [6.2%]
Duration: 27 minutes 24 seconds
3.playedRollout17/2 5/2eq: -0.705 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
15.67% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
84.33% (G:5.71% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.706...-0.704) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 56 seconds
4.Rollout116/13 7/2eq: -0.705 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
15.18% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
84.82% (G:5.08% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.706...-0.704) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 02 seconds
5.Rollout116/11 7/4eq: -0.712 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
14.39% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
85.61% (G:4.52% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.713...-0.711) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35752513
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 7/2 5/2
[11] 16/8
[ 4] 16/11 7/4
[ 1] 16/13 7/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/2 5/2

We rolled our best roll so we should just make our 2 point with 7/2 5/2.


Steve Sax recommends: 7/2 5/2

I don’t care that XG’s rollout has the play as close. We should close the board.

If Neil rolls 33 on his next shake and we hit (1%), we will win the game instead of worrying about him coming in and hitting.

Our chance of being gammoned is pretty small and if we play 16/11 with the five it doesn’t decrease it all that much.

Not only is making the deuce point good in the short run, but in subsequent plays we can play more boldly in a few shakes by running off the anchor and playing our phantom 22-point holding game.

A play can be intellectually correct and there can still be a marginal swing in equity because it’s right in the fat part of the zone where the defender doesn’t win that often or get gammoned all that often either so the swing on the move is generally very small.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 55
             
11 point match
              pip: 102
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBB---------A--ccbBg--:1:1:-1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/4 5/Offeq: +0.735
Player:
Opponent:
86.12% (G:5.25% B:0.02%)
13.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.733...+0.738) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 2/Offeq: +0.667 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
83.01% (G:5.26% B:0.01%)
16.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.664...+0.669) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35752513
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4 5/0.

My opponents have a closed board and winning a gammon is very unlikely. I need to play safe with 6/4 5/0. Anything else would be very bad.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 48
             
11 point match
              pip: 102
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBB---------A--bbcBg--:1:1:1:62:3:5:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 75
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BBBBB----------dccbCc--:1:1:1:62:3:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout122/16 7/5eq: -0.743
Player:
Opponent:
12.58% (G:0.30% B:0.01%)
87.42% (G:3.76% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.744...-0.742) - [53.7%]
Duration: 58 minutes 19 seconds
2.Rollout122/14eq: -0.743 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
12.54% (G:0.31% B:0.01%)
87.46% (G:3.76% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.744...-0.742) - [46.3%]
Duration: 56 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21020372
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 22/16 7/5
[17] 22/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/14

We are obviously going to play the 6 by moving 22/16.

Next we have to decide how to play the 2. There cannot be much in it, but in these situations I would rather keep my 7 point so it is harder for any black checker that we hit to escape. Therefore I would play 22/14.


Steve Sax recommends: 22/16 7/5

Black has many spares on the points he wants to clear so he won’t likely leave a shot any time soon.

That being the case, you should want to give yourself the best chance (as White) to make a closed board.

The best way to accomplish that is to exit Black’s prime with the six and play 7-5 with the deuce. That gives White two numbers to close the board as opposed to one.

Perhaps more important than making the two-point in the next roll is the ability to slot your two-point which will give you a better chance to make the point more quickly.

By playing 7-5, you can slot the two-point with 25/36 numbers as opposed to the 15 you would be able to slot your deuce-point with if you play (22-14) with the 6-2.

And even if you don’t get a shot and hit it, by making the closed board that will give White a better chance if he has to leave the anchor at a future date.

That will give White a better chance to win a “phantom” 22-point game first of all, and secondly White rates to be gammoned less often the more he can maintain a close board as opposed to a five-point board.

Don’t be a turkey by denying yourself the best chance to make a closed board. Play 7-5 with the deuce and you’ll avoid fowl play 😊.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!



Neil Kazaross: 55 7/2(4)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 55
             
11 point match
              pip: 110
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BBCBA--------A--ccbBg--:1:1:1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-23

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 99
             
11 point match
              pip: 126
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-B-BBC-A---a---cdbcbC---:1:1:1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout19/4 7/4eq: -0.702
Player:
Opponent:
14.00% (G:0.23% B:0.01%)
86.00% (G:3.89% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.705...-0.698) - [99.2%]
Duration: 14 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout17/4 7/2eq: -0.708 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
13.96% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)
86.04% (G:4.45% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.711...-0.705) - [0.8%]
Duration: 13 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21020372
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 9/4 7/4
[ 2] 7/4 7/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/4 7/4

In a chouette, if one of my team suggested 7/4 7/2 I would probably agree, even though I much prefer 9/4 7/4. We have very little chance of getting an immediate shot (Neil rolls 21, we then hit the indirect shot)

so it might seem that slotting the 4 and 2 points is the long-term play, with but I do like to lock up the 4 point.

Fortunately Neil cannot double us out here as we own the cube. If the cube was in the centre and Neil doubled us, I would pass.


Steve Sax recommends: 9/4 7/4

White could slot both his four and two-points and prepare to fill them both in, but why not make the four-point immediately?

Since he is behind a five prime, he can slot with fives and escape with sixes and other numbers can be played by breaking his bar-point bringing those two checkers in as builders to close his board.

If he chooses to double slot, there is a small sequence where Black rolls 2-1 and White hits a fly shot and isn’t prepared to contain Black.

Additionally, if White doesn’t make the four-point now and rolls 4-4 on his next roll, he won’t be able to make a four-point board.

I don’t think there is too much more to this position but if anyone can come up with something else I’d be happy to know what that is.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 99
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BBBBB-----a---cdbcbC---:1:1:-1:66:3:5:0:11:10
to play 66

1.xgRollout112/6 8/2 7/1(2)eq: +0.771
Player:
Opponent:
87.94% (G:5.85% B:0.05%)
12.06% (G:0.33% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.769...+0.774) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 17 seconds
2.playedRollout112/6 8/2(3)eq: +0.762 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
87.88% (G:4.84% B:0.04%)
12.12% (G:0.28% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.759...+0.764) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21020372
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/6 8/2(3).

A fine roll for me to clear with. I could strip and keep a 5 prime and block 5’s for a turn, but their 5’s play OK. Clearing looks clearly best to me.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 75
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BBBBB----------dccbCc--:1:1:1:62:3:5:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-22

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaB-BBB-B-------cdbcbBA--:1:1:1:21:3:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout123/22 9/7eq: -0.514
Player:
Opponent:
23.00% (G:2.02% B:0.06%)
77.00% (G:10.33% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.518...-0.510) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout123/22 7/5eq: -0.644 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:
19.62% (G:1.45% B:0.01%)
80.38% (G:13.91% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.648...-0.641) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 39 seconds
3.Rollout19/6eq: -0.650 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
20.43% (G:2.34% B:0.06%)
79.57% (G:17.49% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.654...-0.645) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout17/6 7/5eq: -0.718 (-0.203)
Player:
Opponent:
17.91% (G:1.84% B:0.03%)
82.09% (G:16.91% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.722...-0.713) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21020372
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 23/22 9/7
[ 1] 9/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi) teaches
at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/22 9/7

If we leave our checker on the 23 point alone, it could be attacked by Neil’s 3 active builders. We need to get it over the 5 prim so 23/22 is called for.

After that then 9/7 is the only move as we do not want to leave a direct shot.



Neil Kazaross: 65 23/12


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 99
             
11 point match
              pip: 126
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-B-BBC-A---a---cdbcbC---:1:1:1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-aBBBB-B-----a-cdbbbB--A:1:1:1:11:3:5:0:11:10
to play 11

1.xgRollout1Bar/24 9/8 4/3*(2)eq: -0.470
Player:
Opponent:
25.49% (G:6.52% B:0.16%)
74.51% (G:18.34% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.476...-0.464) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 53 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/23 4/3*(2)eq: -0.489 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
24.73% (G:6.11% B:0.24%)
75.27% (G:17.82% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.495...-0.483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24 7/6 4/3*(2)eq: -0.499 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
24.73% (G:6.61% B:0.09%)
75.27% (G:19.18% B:1.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.505...-0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 54 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/23 9/8(2)eq: -0.566 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
23.26% (G:3.14% B:0.06%)
76.74% (G:17.07% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.571...-0.561) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21020372
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/23 4/3*(2)
[10] b/24 9/8 4/3*(2)
[ 3] b/23 9/8(2)
[ 2] b/24 7/6 4/3*(2)
[ 1] b/24 9/8(2) 4/3*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-B-BBB-B-----a-cdbbbBA--:1:1:-1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 10/5eq: +0.602
Player:
Opponent:
77.76% (G:17.64% B:0.80%)
22.24% (G:2.84% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.597...+0.607) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 7/2*eq: +0.417 (-0.185)
Player:
Opponent:
72.84% (G:19.31% B:1.02%)
27.16% (G:7.83% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.410...+0.423) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 47 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21020372
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 10/5.

I don’t need a 2nd checker back and I also hope my opponents can roll something awkward and break up. So Bar/23 10/5 leaves me nicely positioned.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaB-BBB-B-------cdbcbBA--:1:1:1:21:3:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 118
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-aBCCB-B-a-----cdbbbB---:1:1:1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/1 5/3*eq: +0.033
Player:
Opponent:
38.02% (G:15.19% B:0.33%)
61.98% (G:12.41% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.026...+0.041) - [100.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout19/4 5/3*eq: -0.182 (-0.216)
Player:
Opponent:
34.19% (G:10.28% B:0.18%)
65.81% (G:17.37% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.189...-0.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout19/7 9/4eq: -0.219 (-0.252)
Player:
Opponent:
32.87% (G:5.96% B:0.21%)
67.13% (G:8.63% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.224...-0.214) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] 6/1 5/3*
[ 2] 9/7 9/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi) teaches
at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1 5/3*

If we do not hit here, then any 5 is good for Neil. If we hit 6/1 5/3* then only 62 and 53 let Neil partially escape.

The only other alternatives to hitting is to start to destroy our prime so I have to hit 6/1 5/3*.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 121
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-ABBBB-B-a-----cdbbbB---:1:1:-1:43:3:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout1Bar/22* 14/10eq: +0.542
Player:
Opponent:
76.34% (G:17.63% B:0.73%)
23.66% (G:4.16% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.537...+0.548) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22* 8/4eq: +0.512 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
75.40% (G:18.46% B:0.81%)
24.60% (G:5.09% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.506...+0.517) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22* 14/10.

I’ll play 14/10 — this brings a checker to a good safe spot where I can add it to my collection of builder/spares on my 5 prime next turn if I cannot do something useful with my back checker. 8/4 would be a clear error with my 4, misplacing that checker on my 4 point where it has less movement and leaving a silly looking distribution of my 3 spares.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-aBBBB-B-----a-cdbbbB--A:1:1:1:11:3:5:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-b-CCBB----B---cdbbbB---:1:1:1:44:3:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout113/9(2) 6/2 5/1eq: +0.241
Player:
Opponent:
47.40% (G:10.64% B:0.63%)
52.60% (G:12.02% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.234...+0.248) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 57 seconds
2.playedRollout113/9(2) 8/4(2)eq: +0.195 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
46.02% (G:10.99% B:0.44%)
53.98% (G:11.23% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.187...+0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/9(2) 8/4(2)
[15] 13/9(2) 6/2 5/1
[ 1] 8/4(2) 6/2 5/1
[ 1] 13/1 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi) teaches
at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/9(2) 6/2 5/1

First we need to play 13/9(2) then think about how to play the last two 4’s.

Keeping the prime and playing 6/2 5/1 gives Neil a lot of bad rolls. Only 11 advancing his anchor and 61 escaping are good rolls. Any other roll weakens his structure, he may keep his prime but will be forced to move his checkers forward. Neil will not split off his anchor with any 1 (as we will attack) so this has to be the play.

If instead we play 8/4(2) we have given Neil 5’s as a good number.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-bBCCB-B-------cdbbbB---:1:1:-1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout122/14eq: -0.148
Player:
Opponent:
57.62% (G:11.28% B:0.68%)
42.38% (G:15.04% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.156...-0.140) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 7/2eq: -0.202 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
52.85% (G:12.32% B:0.44%)
47.15% (G:10.35% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.209...-0.196) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/14.

Should I stay or should I go now? If I stay, I hope my opponents have to break up their position, but risk them rolling a 6 and hopping out. If I run I risk them attacking and then escaping with a 6.

If their anchor was back a point in my board so as not to be on the edge of my 5 prime looking at daylight, it would be automatic to run. Here it seems anything but automatic, but I think the key issue is their blot on their ace point which gives me more tactical chances when I am attacked after running, as maybe I can hit it or maybe they cover it but don’t cover their 3 point instead.

OK into the storm I go.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 118
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-aBCCB-B-a-----cdbbbB---:1:1:1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 141
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-b-BCBB---ABd--c-bbbB---:1:1:1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout112/5eq: +0.214
Player:
Opponent:
46.73% (G:10.09% B:0.45%)
53.27% (G:12.17% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.211...+0.217) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 29 minutes
2.Rollout112/10 6/1eq: +0.202 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
46.49% (G:9.68% B:0.41%)
53.51% (G:12.23% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.200...+0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout213/11 6/1eq: +0.158 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
44.98% (G:9.80% B:0.34%)
55.02% (G:12.98% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.150...+0.166) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
4.Rollout213/8 12/10eq: +0.144 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
44.15% (G:10.01% B:0.51%)
55.85% (G:12.18% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.136...+0.152) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
5.Rollout213/11 12/7eq: +0.141 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
44.02% (G:10.03% B:0.49%)
55.98% (G:12.23% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.133...+0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
6.Rollout213/11 13/8eq: +0.131 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
43.78% (G:9.82% B:0.36%)
56.22% (G:11.91% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.124...+0.139) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 12/5
[ 3] 13/11 12/7
[ 3] 12/10 6/1
[ 1] 13/11 13/8
[ 1] 13/11 6/1
[ 1] 13/8 12/10


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 12/5

We are ahead in the race, with Neil having 2 checkers behind our 4 prime and we have 2 checkers behind his broken 4 prime. Notice that we are at the edge of the prime with 2 numbers which allow us to escape while Neil only has one direct number that allows him to escape.

I do not want to do anything to risk being hit so I would just play the quiet 12/5.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-b-CCBB----Bd--c-bbbB---:1:1:-1:44:3:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout111/7(4)eq: -0.144
Player:
Opponent:
56.27% (G:11.37% B:0.72%)
43.73% (G:9.96% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.150...-0.137) - [100.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout111/7(3) 8/4eq: -0.167 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
55.30% (G:11.68% B:0.79%)
44.70% (G:10.00% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.174...-0.160) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/7(4).

11/7(4) is a nice natural play with this fine roll, giving me a 5 prime with some spares to handle upcoming rolls, or to be builders should they decide to run a checker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-b-CCBB----B---cdbbbB---:1:1:1:44:3:5:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-16

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-c-BCBB----Bc--cAbbbB---:1:1:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout118/12eq: +0.378
Player:
Opponent:
51.90% (G:11.71% B:0.75%)
48.10% (G:13.26% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.369...+0.386) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout118/13 6/5eq: +0.341 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
50.76% (G:11.54% B:0.70%)
49.24% (G:13.42% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.334...+0.349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 18/12
[ 4] 18/13 6/5
[ 1] 13/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 18/12

We need to move our checker on the 18 point to safety. We want to avoid being hit on the 18 point and then Neil making his prime. So 18/13 with the 5.

The point we most want to make is our 9 point and prime Neil. Therefore we need to move 13/12 giving us more chances to make the 9 point or hit if Neil comes out with 61 or 62.

Putting that altogether we get 18/12.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 141
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-c-BCBB---ABc--c-bbbB---:1:1:-1:65:3:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout122/11eq: -0.293
Player:
Opponent:
50.75% (G:12.67% B:0.99%)
49.25% (G:10.59% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.301...-0.285) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
2.Rollout122/16 11/6eq: -0.388 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
48.22% (G:13.58% B:0.87%)
51.78% (G:12.50% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.397...-0.380) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
3.Rollout111/6 8/2eq: -0.575 (-0.282)
Player:
Opponent:
41.75% (G:13.26% B:1.08%)
58.25% (G:12.81% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.583...-0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/11.

22/11 is automatic here, freeing a back checker to a safe spot and making this about an even game now.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 141
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-b-BCBB---ABd--c-bbbB---:1:1:1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aA-b-ADBBa---Bb--c-bbbBA--:1:1:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.Rollout16/5 6/1eq: +0.250
Player:
Opponent:
46.03% (G:15.03% B:1.08%)
53.97% (G:16.29% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.247...+0.254) - [51.4%]
Duration: 9 hours 37 minutes
2.playedRollout123/18 6/5eq: +0.250 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
47.08% (G:13.26% B:1.04%)
52.92% (G:17.23% B:1.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.246...+0.254) - [48.6%]
Duration: 11 hours 14 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 23/18 6/5
[13] 6/5 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/5 6/1

Obviously we have to cover the 5 point blot with 6/5.

If this were money I would play 23/18 but we are 8 away 6 away holding a 2 cube. If we redouble and Gammon Neil then we win the match exactly. So I have to consider playing 6/1 covering the 1 point. Covering the 1 point means Neil has no hitting numbers next turn.

I like the mobility of 23/18 but I would rather try to win this match now, so although it looks ugly, I play 6/1.


Steve Sax recommends: 23/18 6/5

In this position White rolls a 5-1 trailing in the match and owning the cube. This is a pretty handy shake as it of course makes the five-point but also does something constructive with the five.

My first instinct was that it was obvious to come out with the five as we escape a piece from Neil’s board and keep a builder on our six-point in our endeavor to make a five-prime.

Now that goals is quite a way off as we must hope to be missed and then bring enough builders on White’s four-prime to attempt to extend it to a five-prime.

And even if White is hit on his ace-point it’s not a total loss. That piece out of play is somewhat of an eyesore in that it will always be a problem until the ace-point is made, and even if that is accomplished you’re only playing with 13 checkers in a prime versus prime game.

Additionally, the fact that aces are duplicate makes coming out a bit less risky as Neil has limited numbers to hit White back. Any ace as well as 2-2, 2-4, 3-4 and 4-4 (17 out of 36) which is a little less than half of the time.

Also, if White is hit, he can land on the 23-point and potentially make a back game out of it although that wouldn’t be the ideal game plan since both sides would still have multiple checkers back.

On the more than half of the time Black doesn’t hit White, we will be attempting to either make Neil’s bar-point or hit him on our nine-point if he is unable or unwilling to move that checker.

That bonus is mitigated in some small part as fours could be duplicated either allowing us to hit on our nine-point or making the defensive 18-point on his side of the board.

It’s a super close decision and one which might sway it in favor of making the ace-point is the fact that Black will stay out more than twice as often as times where White chose to come out to the 18-point.

If that did occur (25% of the time), White will be shooting at Black on his nine-point with half of his shots sending Neil to the bar.

My vote was to make the five and come out to the 18-point but making the ace gets the very tiniest nod over coming out.

In the end it might come down to style, a term which I don’t generally like using in backgammon. However if one play or another leads you to a type of game you feel more comfortable or more suitably put, a game in which you understand how to proceed then you should make that choice.



Neil Kazaross: 53 b/22 16/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-c-BCBB----Bc--cAbbbB---:1:1:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-a-aEBBa---Bb--c-bbbBa-A:1:1:1:21:3:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23* 6/5*eq: -0.212
Player:
Opponent:
35.24% (G:9.97% B:1.02%)
64.76% (G:26.20% B:2.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.222...-0.203) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23* 23/22eq: -0.317 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:
31.40% (G:6.77% B:0.45%)
68.60% (G:20.21% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.325...-0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22eq: -0.337 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
29.77% (G:6.24% B:0.28%)
70.23% (G:16.99% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.344...-0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35762205
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] b/23* 6/5*
[ 3] b/22
[ 3] b/23*/22


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23* 6/5*

How do we intend to win this?

  • We are not going to Blitz Neil.
  • We are unlikely to prime him (but could), especially with the blot on our 1 point.
  • The race does not look good.
  • How about playing for contact from the 22 anchor? Not great.

If we play passively, we are hoping to win from the 22 point anchor. I do not like this idea. So maybe we could prime him or play a backgame – in either of those game plans we need a prime and we can start that by hit Neil with Bar/23* then hit Neil off our 5 point with 6/5*.

Once we have hit 2 checkers, Neil has no choice how he plays his entering rolls so will hit us if he rolls a 1 – and I want him to roll a 1. Then we have a chance to make our 23 point. Also Nil has less chance of hitting us on our 5 point with 2 checkers on the bar.

We are not in good shape but this is the only game plan that gives us the best chance.



Neil Kazaross: 63 b/22


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aA-b-ADBBa---Bb--c-bbbBA--:1:1:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10