USBGF OLM 2017-10-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABD-C--beC---bBbb-b---:0:0:1:61:3:2:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/7 6/5eq: +0.082
Player:
Opponent:
52.07% (G:3.37% B:0.08%)
47.93% (G:2.10% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.079...+0.086) - [53.5%]
Duration: 13 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.082 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
52.05% (G:3.35% B:0.09%)
47.95% (G:2.08% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.079...+0.085) - [46.5%]
Duration: 12 hours 35 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49739898
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 13/7 6/5
[ 6] 13/7 8/7
[ 1] 8/2 6/5


Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 6/5

I want my points in order, so the next point I want is the 4 point. Playing 13/7 6/5 gives me 4 builders to cover it.

Although this also slots the 7 point, after I make the 4 point, my next priority is to make the 3 point rather than the 7 the point


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 13/7 6/5

White should his bar-point with a six and play 6-5 with the ace.

That way he will have 1’s, 2’s, 3’s and 4’s to make his four-point as well as 2’s, 3’s, 4’s and 5’s to make his three-point.

While it’s probably not a big deal, I believe this play is better than making the bar-point since this makes White’s play a little less flexible. Take a look at how 6-1 plays next roll after making the bar-point as opposed to the play I suggest.



65 13/2


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 130
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ACCAC--bdB---bBbb-ba--:0:0:1:62:3:2:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----ADACA-beC---bBd-b----:0:0:1:52:3:2:0:11:10
to play 52

1.Rollout19/4 6/4eq: -0.008
Player:
Opponent:
49.26% (G:2.19% B:0.05%)
50.74% (G:1.30% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.011...-0.005) - [58.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 12 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 7/5eq: -0.010 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
49.20% (G:2.27% B:0.05%)
50.80% (G:1.37% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.013...-0.007) - [11.8%]
Duration: 13 hours 18 minutes
3.xgRollout113/8 7/5eq: -0.010 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
49.20% (G:2.25% B:0.05%)
50.80% (G:1.38% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.013...-0.007) - [10.4%]
Duration: 13 hours 39 minutes
4.playedRollout19/4 7/5eq: -0.011 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
49.20% (G:2.20% B:0.05%)
50.80% (G:1.34% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.014...-0.007) - [8.6%]
Duration: 12 hours 38 minutes
5.Rollout213/8 6/4eq: -0.013 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
49.13% (G:2.81% B:0.06%)
50.87% (G:1.93% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.021...-0.005) - [9.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
6.Rollout28/3 5/3eq: -0.016 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
49.14% (G:2.26% B:0.07%)
50.86% (G:1.46% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.024...-0.009) - [1.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37892069
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37892069
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 9/4 7/5
[14] 9/4 6/4
[ 1] 13/8 6/4
[ 1] 8/3 7/5
[ 1] 8/3 5/3
[ 1] 13/8 7/5


Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/4 7/5

I need to develop my board so making the 5 point with 7/5 is a must. Next I will play 9/4 as it slots the next point in order (without any gaps).

Sometimes you may make a deeper point and slot the higher point for reasons of a better distribution but here although it would be nice to unstack the 6 point, it is better to make the points in order.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 9/4 6/4

There isn’t a tremendous amount of difference in any of the reasonable plays, but let’s try to come up with the best move.

The race is close and neither side is likely to leave a shot too soon, so your objective as White is to begin to build your board as efficiently as possible.

And in doing that you should be making new inner board points and slotting new ones

However, you want to give yourself the best chance of making a new point and the best way to do that is to give yourself as much diversity and flexibility of builders.

So in this case, I like making the four-point. That way, you unstack your six-point while keeping your seven and five-point slotted.

This way you will have 1’s, 2’s and 3’s to make your five-point while 4’s, 5’s and 6’s will either make your bar-point or start (or make) your three-point.

In the case that you get a shot, you would rather have a contiguous prime than one with gaps in it so since you can fairly freely move the pieces on your side of the board, let’s try to make our points in order.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABD-C--beC---bBd-b----:0:0:-1:11:3:2:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout16/5(2) 4/3(2)eq: -0.141
Player:
Opponent:
46.16% (G:1.74% B:0.09%)
53.84% (G:3.00% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.144...-0.138) - [66.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 11 minutes
2.Rollout16/5 6/3eq: -0.142 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
46.12% (G:1.54% B:0.07%)
53.88% (G:2.78% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.145...-0.139) - [32.2%]
Duration: 14 hours 49 minutes
3.Rollout16/5(2) 4/2eq: -0.145 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
45.95% (G:1.54% B:0.07%)
54.05% (G:2.77% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.149...-0.142) - [1.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 31 minutes
4.Rollout16/3 4/3eq: -0.147 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
45.93% (G:1.50% B:0.07%)
54.07% (G:2.82% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.150...-0.144) - [0.1%]
Duration: 12 hours 59 minutes
5.Rollout16/5(2) 6/4eq: -0.148 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
45.90% (G:1.49% B:0.07%)
54.10% (G:2.72% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.151...-0.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 06 minutes
6.Rollout26/5(3) 4/3eq: -0.151 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
45.81% (G:1.58% B:0.07%)
54.19% (G:3.11% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.159...-0.143) - [0.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
7.Rollout26/2eq: -0.157 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
45.56% (G:1.53% B:0.06%)
54.44% (G:2.95% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.165...-0.150) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
8.Rollout26/4(2)eq: -0.165 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
45.31% (G:1.39% B:0.05%)
54.69% (G:3.05% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.173...-0.158) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
9.Rollout26/5 4/3 4/2eq: -0.167 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
45.38% (G:1.63% B:0.05%)
54.62% (G:3.11% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.174...-0.159) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
10.Rollout26/5 4/1eq: -0.170 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
45.31% (G:1.70% B:0.06%)
54.69% (G:3.34% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.178...-0.162) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
11.Rollout24/2(2)eq: -0.181 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
44.89% (G:1.36% B:0.06%)
55.11% (G:2.91% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.189...-0.173) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
12.Rollout24/3 4/1eq: -0.193 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
44.55% (G:1.88% B:0.03%)
55.45% (G:3.34% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.201...-0.185) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
13.Rollout214/13(2) 6/5(2)eq: -0.207 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
44.32% (G:1.43% B:0.05%)
55.68% (G:2.92% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.215...-0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37892069
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37892069
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5(2) 4/3(2).

Two of my aces go 6/5(2), and now I have to think about the other two. 14/13(2) clears a point but leaves me a bad 61 and will waste 12 pips if I roll 66. Leaving 7 checkers on a point can be awkward if the dice don’t cooperate. I don’t see a rush to clear the 14 point, since by the time I am forced to blot there, their midpoint may be gone so I’ll leave only 4 shots.

Playing two aces in my home board looks better to me. Rather than leaving two blots that might be hard to cover, I’ll just switch 4/3(2).


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABD-C--beC---bBbb-b---:0:0:1:61:3:2:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=------E-CA-beD---cBe------:0:0:1:61:3:2:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/7 6/5eq: -0.051
Player:
Opponent:
47.89% (G:1.80% B:0.06%)
52.11% (G:1.17% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.054...-0.048) - [84.4%]
Duration: 16 hours 52 minutes
2.Rollout19/3 6/5eq: -0.054 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
47.77% (G:1.95% B:0.06%)
52.23% (G:1.29% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.057...-0.051) - [10.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: -0.055 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
47.77% (G:1.88% B:0.04%)
52.23% (G:1.27% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.058...-0.052) - [3.8%]
Duration: 15 hours 55 minutes
4.Rollout18/2 6/5eq: -0.056 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
47.65% (G:2.13% B:0.05%)
52.35% (G:1.43% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.059...-0.052) - [1.8%]
Duration: 15 hours 33 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42273818
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 13/7 6/5
[ 6] 13/7 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 6/5

In the early game, making inner board points usually beats making points I your outer board. So although we could play 13/7 8/7 it is better to start building your inner board points in order. So 13/7 6/5, slotting prepares to do this.

Note that I do not expect to get a shot next turn.

I will carry on slotting points in order and covering them until it looks like I will get a shot next turn.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----ADACA-beC---cBe------:0:0:-1:42:3:2:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.035
Player:
Opponent:
49.22% (G:1.51% B:0.06%)
50.78% (G:2.32% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.043...-0.027) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes
2.Rollout16/4 6/2eq: -0.054 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
48.81% (G:1.27% B:0.04%)
51.19% (G:2.30% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.061...-0.046) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42273818
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/4.

It is difficult to make much of a mistake in this type of position unless I later mess up a pay now or later decision. One danger in this type of position is rolling 61 when the 8 point is stripped and then being forced to blot there. But here, owning the 14 point I don’t have that 61 worry as it becomes a good roll and clears. So I can simply make my 4 point and not worry about a stripped 8 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----ADACA-beC---bBd-b----:0:0:1:52:3:2:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 157
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-CA-aeD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:3:2:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/18 21/18eq: +0.203
Player:
Opponent:
54.30% (G:10.57% B:0.35%)
45.70% (G:6.99% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.194...+0.212) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout19/3 6/3eq: +0.104 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
51.40% (G:15.27% B:0.63%)
48.60% (G:10.56% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.093...+0.115) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50723034
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 24/18 21/18
[ 4] 9/3 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 24/18 21/18

In this case there are two obvious choices. White can either make the advanced anchor or make his own three-point.

To decide what is the correct move White has to determine which move accomplishes more and which play is harder to do on a subsequent roll.

If White chooses to make his three-point, what are the odds that he will be able to make an advanced anchor on the following roll. Conversely if he makes the anchor what are the odds he will be able to make an inner board (or bar-point) on the following roll.

But that’s not the end of the story. White also has to determine which move has more value and what opportunities are given up by choosing the other.

So back to the first question. If White makes his three-point, he will be able to make the advanced anchor when he is not pointed on and links up his back two checkers. He will also be able to make an advanced anchor when he is hit and rolls a combination shot that makes an anchor.

This is a bit of a chore as you need to count those opportunities in a two roll sequence (Black’s roll and White’s response).

According to my calculations after Black plays and then White rolls, White will make his 21, 20, or 18 point on 307/1296 which is almost 23% of the time.

If however White makes the 18-point, how often will he make a blocking point in his board after Black plays?

Well, White will accomplish that goal 32 times in 36 when he is not hit. And even if you discount 6-4 as a blocking point because it makes such a deep point, he will accomplish his goal 30/36 times when he is not hit and he isn’t hit coincidentally 30/36 times.

So that’s a whopping 900/1296 success rate or 69%!

So it seems clear at this point that you would rather grab the anchor and wait to improve your home board position because of the high likelihood of success by waiting to develop.

And there are other factors in favor of making the anchor first. It takes away Black’s attack of White’s back checkers.

If White makes his three-point with the 6-3, he will be pointed on six times in 36 which means that White will be put on the ropes that sixth of a time.

When White makes the 18-point he will have the checker on his nine-point hit the same sixth of a time (6/36) but the impact is far less since that will only allow Black to escape with tempo rather than being able to accomplish two solid goals of hitting and making an inner-board point at the same time.

Another factor in choosing to make the advanced anchor is the quality of the point you are making.

When you make the three-point you are creating a double gap in your home board.

However, if you make the anchor and are not hit, you will make a better point than the three-point on 22/36 rolls which makes you a favorite to make a better inner board point while grabbing the advanced anchor to boot.

If the number were 4-1 instead, you would take your own five-point rather than the 20-point, because the quality of the five-point is too good to pass up this early in the game.

The key thing to think about in this position is the concept of “doing the harder thing first”.

The simple reason is that if both moves are of equivalent value you should make the play which if you didn’t do on this move, would be more difficult to accomplish on the following roll.

Obviously it’s not as simple as that because the nature of the position changes the more volatile the position is, but in a relatively in volatile position you would do well to adhere to this credo.



Neil Kazaross: 64 24/14


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=------E-CA-beD---cBe------:0:0:1:61:3:2:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:3:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.011
Player:
Opponent:
49.81% (G:15.69% B:0.92%)
50.19% (G:14.12% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.006...+0.016) - [65.9%]
Duration: 17 hours 29 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 13/9eq: +0.010 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
49.95% (G:14.56% B:0.84%)
50.05% (G:13.77% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.004...+0.015) - [34.1%]
Duration: 17 hours 43 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 13/10eq: +0.000 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
49.87% (G:14.10% B:0.78%)
50.13% (G:13.76% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.005...+0.006) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 hours 45 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50723034
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 24/21 13/9
[13] 13/10 13/9
[ 5] 24/20 13/10


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10 13/9

At a normal match score I play the money move of 13/10 13/9. For money 13/10 13/9 or 24/21 13/9 or 24/20 13/10 are even.

Over the board I would note that we are ahead in the match by 1 point and consider 24/21 13/9 which is probably correct. However, I would still play 13/10 13/9 as I prefer the more aggressive play and against Neil I want to be more aggressive.

Also I know the 3rd roll replies against 13/9 13/10 better than I know the 3rd roll replies against 24/21 13/9.

13/10 13/9 for me.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:-1:64:3:2:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/14eq: -0.228
Player:
Opponent:
45.56% (G:10.03% B:0.44%)
54.44% (G:16.06% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.232...-0.223) - [59.8%]
Duration: 15 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.229 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
44.79% (G:12.67% B:0.49%)
55.21% (G:16.68% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.233...-0.224) - [40.2%]
Duration: 13 hours 19 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50723034
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/14.

This one is easy to remember but I cannot explain why the clear differences. If they play 43 24/20 13/10, you make the 2 point, but if they play 43 24/21 13/9, you run.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 157
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-CA-aeD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:3:2:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BADBB---cB---b-bbbbAA-:0:0:-1:00:3:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:66.17% (G:34.74% B:2.37%)66.25% (G:35.43% B:2.31%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:33.83% (G:9.68% B:0.85%)33.75% (G:9.94% B:1.20%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.603+1.285
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.762 (-0.238)±0.011 (+0.751..+0.772)
     Double/Take:+1.094 (+0.094)±0.016 (+1.078..+1.110)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19918316
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] Pass
[13] Take


Grant Hoffman recommends:

This is a terrible situation. We have slotted while our back checkers are split. Neil hits our slotted 5 point with 14 numbers as 11 does not hit there. However, 11 can be used to switch in Neil’s inner board. Neil can hit our split checkers in his inner board if he does not hit our slotted 5 point. He has so many – too many good rolls.

Let’s look at the Value Equation from Neil’s point of view. Note that Neil has a broken 6 prime compared to our broken 5 prime

  • Value Equation = Prime + Blitz + race + Contact
  • Value Equation = 2 + 4 + 0 + 1

  • Value Equation = 7

We do not have anything to make me want to take. If we were anchored on the 23 or 24 point, I would take but this is just too bad.

I pass.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Neil Kazaross comments on the cube.

Structurally, it may look like I don’t have a big advantage and that my opponents are threatening to make their 5 point sometimes creating a 5 prime. However, it won’t be easy for them to make it when they are on the bar.

Tactically, I have a big advantage and gammon threats with my 4 point board and with most rolls hitting something. Most of my non hitting rolls can split my back checkers making it more difficult for them to cover their 5 point without blotting. Once one goes through all my 36 rolls, they should be able to see that this is a strong and threatening cube and that after taking and then getting hit and dancing, my opponents will often be swept off the board.

Maybe this is a close take at an even score, but at the score with less recube vig, it looks prudent to pass.


Neil Kazaross wins one point. The USBGF Members lead 8-away/9-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:3:2:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 145
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-DBC---cB---b-bbbb-AA:0:0:1:32:3:1:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout1Bar/23 6/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
33.61% (G:9.38% B:0.93%)
66.39% (G:32.93% B:2.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.009...-0.991) - [33.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/23 8/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
33.62% (G:9.79% B:0.86%)
66.38% (G:34.82% B:2.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-1.010...-0.990) - [33.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 13/10eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
31.69% (G:9.76% B:0.78%)
68.31% (G:33.48% B:3.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-1.010...-0.990) - [33.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 19918316
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/23 8/5
[18] b/23 6/3
[ 1] b/23 13/10


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 6/3

I dislike breaking the mid-point with 13/10 as we give away our outfield presence.

7/4 breaks our bar point, so let’s scrape that.

If we play 8/5 we could make a 5 prime, the bad news is that we have duplicated our 1’s to cover 24/23 and cover 6/5. Therefore I would play 6/3 which leaves Neil fewer hits and we have diversified our numbers.

In a chouette, I would accept any move except 7/4.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: b/23 6/3

White has two reasonable “three’s” to play.

He can either slot his five-point leaving a four show (plus 1-3 and 2-2) or slot the three-point leaving 2’s plus 1-1.

In a priming game you would rather make the five-point than the three-point but it seems to be wrong for a couple of reasons.

First by slotting the five-point you leave yourself vulnerable to be hit with 14 numbers whereas by slotting the three-point you only leave yourself at risk by 12 numbers.

Additionally if White slots the three-point he gives himself two active builders to cover whereas if he slots the five-point he can only cover with aces “actively” and “inactively” with 3’s and 8’s.

Another argument for slotting the three-point is that if White is hit Black still has to more of a prime to wallow through to escape. If White is hit after slotting the five-point and is hit, Black is pretty close to escaping that checker and just about as important he starts the 20-point anchor rather than the 22-point anchor.

I put the cube on the side of White here because after either play with 3-2 it’s a questionable take. So at least we can discuss the move in pragmatic terms assuming the “ghost double” and our take.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BADBB---cB---b-bbbbAA-:0:0:-1:00:3:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2017-10-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 151
             
11 point match
              pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-C-C-ABcB---bbdb---AA:0:0:1:44:3:1:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 11/7(2) 10/6eq: -0.154
Player:
Opponent:
47.62% (G:15.73% B:1.03%)
52.38% (G:17.89% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.166...-0.142) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 11/7(2) 8/4eq: -0.221 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
45.92% (G:15.58% B:1.18%)
54.08% (G:19.00% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.233...-0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 10/2 6/2eq: -0.311 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:
43.79% (G:15.35% B:1.09%)
56.21% (G:19.32% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.322...-0.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/21 13/9(2) 10/6eq: -0.321 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:
43.47% (G:14.38% B:1.15%)
56.53% (G:17.81% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.332...-0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19918316
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/21 11/7(2) 10/6
[ 5] b/21 11/7(2) 8/4
[ 3] b/21 10/2 6/2
[ 1] b/21 13/9(2) 10/6


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 11/7(2) 10/6

Grant’s commentary hereAfter we enter Bar/21 our priority should be making the either the 7, 5 or 3 points. 11/7(2) allows us to make the 7 point so let’s do that. Note that we will be ahead in the race by 10 pips after the roll so we are not really wanting a prime vs prime game but will take it as there is no real alternative. If this does end out being a prime vas prime game at least one our checkers is on the 21 point is at the edge of the prime and can escape with 6’s and 5’s. Also if Neil attacks with a checker from his 7 or 8 points, then he is breaking his prime and leaving return shots (unless he attacks with doubles).

The last 4 should be played 10/6, which although this removes a builder for our 5 point, does not leave a direct shot like 13/9 would.

After our play we are still behind, but only slightly.

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.



Neil Kazaross: 33 7/4*(2) 6/3(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 145
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-DBC---cB---b-bbbb-AA:0:0:1:32:3:1:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-02

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---bAdb---A-:0:0:1:22:3:1:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.048
Player:
Opponent:
52.20% (G:15.84% B:1.01%)
47.80% (G:15.50% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.037...+0.060) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout118/16 13/11 6/4(2)eq: -0.028 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
50.67% (G:14.69% B:0.84%)
49.33% (G:15.52% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.041...-0.015) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 18/16 6/4(2)eq: -0.038 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
50.68% (G:12.90% B:0.77%)
49.32% (G:15.36% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.049...-0.027) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 10/8 6/4(2)eq: -0.042 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
50.21% (G:15.11% B:1.14%)
49.79% (G:16.06% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.054...-0.030) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
5.Rollout110/4 6/4eq: -0.047 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
49.90% (G:14.79% B:0.93%)
50.10% (G:15.40% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.058...-0.037) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
6.Rollout113/9 6/4(2)eq: -0.051 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
50.02% (G:16.19% B:1.06%)
49.98% (G:16.83% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.063...-0.039) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
7.Rollout118/16 10/8 6/4(2)eq: -0.060 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
50.20% (G:13.04% B:0.82%)
49.80% (G:15.03% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.072...-0.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
8.Rollout118/14 6/4(2)eq: -0.061 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
49.90% (G:13.61% B:0.77%)
50.10% (G:15.32% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.071...-0.050) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41787029
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/11(2) 6/4(2)
[10] 18/14 6/4(2)
[ 3] 10/4 6/4
[ 1] 24/22 18/16 6/4(2)
[ 1] 13/11 10/8 6/4(2)
[ 1] 18/16 13/11 6/4(2)


Grant Hoffman recommends: 18/16 13/11 6/4(2)

After the roll we will be ahead in the race by 3 pips, and since we know that being behind in the race by 4 pips but on roll means the race is even, therefore in reality, we are behind in the race by 1 pip.

We have to make the 4 point 6/4(2) with our first 2 rolls. Next 13/11 giving us another builder for the 5 or 7 points is correct.

IF we play 24/22 with our last checker, we connect our checkers but connectivity can be a two way street – meaning, it allows Neil to double hit. Rear checker connectivity works best when your opponent has at least one checker on the bar so they cannot double hit, and if they single hit, you get a return shot.

OTB I would probably have played 18/16 as I hate giving my opponent good 6’s and 13/11 strips the mid-point. But I was wrong, 13/11 with the last checker is correct as it :-

  • covers a blot
  • brings another checker into the zone
  • 66 and 33 make the 5 point
  • 22 and 44 make the 7 point

Yes, 13/11 does strip the midpoint, but making the 5 or 7 point with 4 extra rolls is important.

I was also distracted because 18/16 connects the checker on the 16 point to the checkers on the 11 and 10 points. 18/16 is a little too loose and after 13/11 with the last 2, if Neil hits from his 8 point, he has to break his 8 point.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 13/11(2) 6/4(2)

In this third roll position White rolls a 2-2 leading 3-1 to 11.

As I have stated before when you roll a double take a brief overview of the entire situation and consider what your goals are in totality.

After that, prioritize your moves by accomplishing the main goals first followed by secondary goals until your move is over.

Obviously the first two “deuces” should be used to make White’s four-point. That makes a valuable inside point and unstacks the “heavy” point.

The last two deuces are less clear. However, I would make the eleven-point as a constructive move and leave the checker on his 18-point.

It’s true that you could safety from ten to eight and move 18-16 with the deuce leaving only fours, but that allows Black to hit with tempo and leave very few return shots.

The mere fact that Black is stripped on the eight-point is generally enough reason to make a constructive move since many of Black’s hits create additional blots for White to hit with an indirect shot.

As an aside, if you move a spare checker from the mid-point to the eight-point it would still be right to make the four and eleven-points with the double twos.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-C-C-ABeB---bAdb---A-:0:0:-1:33:3:1:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/7*(2)eq: +0.359
Player:
Opponent:
56.73% (G:20.24% B:1.13%)
43.27% (G:13.28% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.347...+0.371) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
2.Rollout113/7* 6/3(2)eq: +0.297 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
54.25% (G:21.11% B:1.25%)
45.75% (G:13.86% B:1.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.284...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19918316
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7*(2).

Making my bar point and a 4 prime should be much better than hitting and making my 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 151
             
11 point match
              pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-C-C-ABcB---bbdb---AA:0:0:1:44:3:1:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBB---A-dD---c-d---aaB:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:72.46% (G:28.51% B:1.93%)72.41% (G:28.91% B:2.23%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:27.54% (G:5.63% B:0.17%)27.59% (G:5.86% B:0.20%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.698+1.422
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.919 (-0.081)±0.009 (+0.910..+0.928)
     Double/Take:+1.164 (+0.164)±0.015 (+1.148..+1.179)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41787029
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] Double
[ 7] No Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

Now we have a double. If we use O’Hagan’s Law, then any of the 20 hits must lose our market. But just entering both checkers should lose our market.

We have a powerful 4 point board, we have 20 immediate shots that hit and the only truly bad number we have is 66 and really how bad can that be? Neil would then have to repair his situation, which probably means moving 2/1 (if he can). After that we would have to still be the favourite.

Let’s turn the cube and make this Neil’s problem.

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.


Steve Sax recommends: Double
White has two checkers on the bar but that’s all that’s bad for him in this position.

He can hit with any ace or deuce and if he comes in with both checkers not hitting he’s still in a commanding position.

Black’s major hope is that White come in with one checker not hitting and Black make a desperate blitz with two checkers behind a four-prime.

It certainly seems like a double for White. as it will take multiple miracles for Black to get into the game.

As far as the take/pass decision, I think Black has to have one fewer blot or one more point in his board to have a reasonable chance.

I would double for White and pass for Black. As far as it being “too good” it’s a consideration as White can potentially contain four checkers behind a prime and it’s not too easy for Black to roll himself back into a take.


Neil Kazaross to play:

Neil Kazaross passes.

This positon looks like a clear pass to me as I think I lose to many gammons to justify taking and continuing such an uphill fight. Yet it seems correct for my opponents to cash here, as 16 rolls miss me and I could then roll well enough to get back into the game, and I won’t be facing anything worse than a 4 point board for a few rolls if I do get hit a couple of times. My anchor on the 23 point will mean that I am not soon going to be a big favorite to lose a gammon when things go awful for me.


USBGF Members win one point, and now lead 8-away/10-away.



USBGF Members: 63 24/18 13/10
Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5 6/5

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---bAdb---A-:0:0:1:22:3:1:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bB-BC-A-A-dD---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:42:2:1:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: +0.628
Player:
Opponent:
64.73% (G:20.10% B:1.06%)
35.27% (G:7.77% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.617...+0.640) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 10/8eq: +0.545 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
63.30% (G:19.55% B:1.08%)
36.70% (G:9.51% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.533...+0.557) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 10/8eq: +0.530 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
63.21% (G:18.55% B:1.05%)
36.79% (G:8.79% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.518...+0.543) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41787029
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 8/4 6/4
[ 6] 24/20 10/8
[ 3] 13/9 10/8


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4 6/4

One of the truths I learnt very early in my Backgammon career, was inner board points usually beat outer board points. The reason is simple – inner board points will make it harder for any of your opponent’s checkers that are on the bar to enter. Therefore they help you win and win more Gammons.

Looking at this another way, if I had a choice between making the 8, 7 or 4 points, which would I rather have? The 4 point removes a gap and makes my board something my opponent must be wary of.

So 8/4 6/4 for me.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 145
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBB---A-dD---d-e---AA-:0:0:-1:65:2:1:0:11:10
to play 65

1.xgRollout113/2*eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
27.64% (G:5.59% B:0.23%)
72.36% (G:24.84% B:1.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.009...-0.991) - [33.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 6/1*eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
27.56% (G:5.67% B:0.20%)
72.44% (G:27.20% B:1.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.009...-0.991) - [33.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
3.playedRollout18/2* 6/1*eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
27.45% (G:5.72% B:0.17%)
72.55% (G:28.50% B:2.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.009...-0.991) - [33.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 41787029
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2* 6/1*.

I didn’t think that there were many market losing sequences when the USBGF Members correctly didn’t cube me prior to last turn. But their 42 followed by an awful roll from me leaves me with a bad position and what looks to be a pass no matter what I play. Had I owned the cube, I’d have played 13/2* to lose somewhat fewer gammons, but here I was sure I’d be cubed after that play and since I’d pass, I went with a more wild play hitting both checkers. I had vain hopes of somehow not being cubed, with some thinking they might be too good and others shocked enough to not cube me with two checkers on the bar. However, I never expected my ploy to work, and it didn’t, so nothing was lost as I just pass when cubed anyhow.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBB---A-dD---c-d---aaB:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bB-BC-A-A-dD---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:63.24% (G:19.15% B:0.95%)63.36% (G:19.10% B:1.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:36.76% (G:8.79% B:0.32%)36.64% (G:8.67% B:0.39%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.374+0.755
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.547±0.012 (+0.535..+0.558)
     Double/Take:+0.419 (-0.127)±0.015 (+0.404..+0.434)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.453)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22124770
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] No Double
[14] Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

I really like our position. We are improving. We have a good position but not a great position.

To use the Value Equation = Prime + Blitz + Race + Contact for us :-

Value Equation = 2 + 0 + 0.5 – 1 = 1.5

So I like what we have, but we just do not have enough.

I would double a weaker play who might be scared but not Neil. If Neil was 3 away and we were still 9 away, then I would double, but not here.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: No Double

In order for a position to be a proper double your position should have a combination of positive equity and volatility (market losers).

If a position is very volatile you don’t need much equity to double and if the position isn’t very volatile the equity needs to be pretty high before you can double.

If you were bearing off and owned the cube with two checkers left, one on the five and one on the two versus your opponent’s one on his ace-point your equity would be pretty small (1/18th of the cube) as you would be a 19/17 favorite to win. However the volatility would be very high because the game would end after your next roll.

That position would be a double because of the super high volatility regardless how small the positive equity is.

This position is opposite that. The positive equity should be decent because White has a three-point board versus Black’s one point board. In addition, White has three builders to make his four-point as well as three builders to make his bar-point.

And even more obvious is the fact that he can make his eight-point with any deuce, five or any combination adding to two or five.

In total, White has 33 numbers to make one of those three blocking points.

Only 4-4 and 4-3 don’t make a blocking point and 4-3 makes the 20-point.

Sounds like I’m trying to make an argument for doubling but I’m not.

The thing is that you can only make one of those points on your next roll so there’s only so much White can do on his current roll.

Additionally Black has an anchor in White’s board. True it’s a deep anchor, but since White still has two checkers back Black should have some decent counter-play in his effort to prime White in.

And when you count the numbers, Black has 16 out of 36 numbers which make a point on his next roll so making some kind of offensive foray in an effort to counter-prime White isn’t all that unlikely.

To recognize positions with this kind of volatility/equity is an art form but with practice you can get better at it and be more prepared to double or wait at the appropriate time.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bB-BC-A-A-dD---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:42:2:1:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B-BC-A-a-dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:31:2:1:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout124/23 13/10*eq: +0.635
Player:
Opponent:
63.56% (G:25.43% B:1.15%)
36.44% (G:8.78% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.623...+0.647) - [99.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
2.Rollout113/10* 10/9eq: +0.613 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
62.84% (G:24.70% B:1.24%)
37.16% (G:9.12% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.603...+0.623) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
3.Rollout113/10* 6/5eq: +0.611 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
62.66% (G:24.87% B:1.29%)
37.34% (G:9.15% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.601...+0.621) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
4.Rollout113/10* 8/7eq: +0.588 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
62.24% (G:25.83% B:1.18%)
37.76% (G:9.63% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.577...+0.599) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22124770
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 24/23 13/10*
[ 1] 13/10* 6/5


Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 13/10*

Obviously we will hit with 13/10*.

Next we need to make the move that improves our position the most. The point I want to make next is our 4 point. I like having good 6’s so I want to stay on the 10 point.

Playing 24/23:

  • makes it easier to anchor if we are hit from the bar,
  • makes it easier to get an advanced anchor later,
  • and gives us better coverage of Neil’s outfield.

24/23 is my gut play, and therefore I would have to like an alternative better to play anything else, and no alternative looks anywhere near as good. So 24/23 for me.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 24/23 13/10*

Can you hit, can you make a point, can you escape a back checker. If you can’t do one, prepare to do one.

So the hit with the three is clear. Now we can’t escape but we can prepare to escape by splitting out back checkers. That gives us many more numbers that make an advanced anchor.

Moving 10-9 with the ace doesn’t give White any additional builders to make new points and isn’t any safer or more dangerous on the ten-point as opposed to the nine-point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-B-BC-A-A-dD---d-e---AA-:0:0:-1:21:2:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 24/23eq: -0.549
Player:
Opponent:
36.90% (G:8.62% B:0.36%)
63.10% (G:19.77% B:1.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.561...-0.537) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/11eq: -0.750 (-0.201)
Player:
Opponent:
33.38% (G:8.17% B:0.40%)
66.62% (G:24.81% B:1.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.760...-0.740) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22124770
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 24/23.

I am happy to be able to anchor on the 23 point and slow down both their attacking and priming plans.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bB-BC-A-A-dD---d-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B-BC-A-a-dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:60.87% (G:24.23% B:0.88%)61.04% (G:24.24% B:0.88%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:39.13% (G:8.71% B:0.43%)38.96% (G:8.66% B:0.41%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.377+0.767
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.517±0.011 (+0.506..+0.528)
     Double/Take:+0.406 (-0.112)±0.014 (+0.391..+0.420)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.483)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22124770
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] No Double
[10] Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double
Let’s start with Woolsey’s Law – am I sure it is a Take? Yes I am. We do have a 3 point board, but that means Neil can re-enter 75% of the time.

Next let’s try O’Hagan’s Law – what are our Market Losers?

  • 66 played 13/1*(2) giving us a checker on the bar against a 4 point board with the blot to hit on the 10 point,
  • 33 played 13/10*(2) 24/21(2) giving us a very solid position with 2 more checkers in the zone and an advanced anchor.
  • 53 played 13/10* 13/8, which hits and remakes or 8 point

These rolls are great but they are only 4 market losers, nowhere near the nett of 9 we need. Our other hits are good, but are not really market losers.

So although I want to be aggressive with the cube against a better player, I still need more of an advantage than we have here.

So let’s roll and re-evaluate next turn.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: No Double

I would wait here. Yes you have advantages, but you don’t have enough market losers to warrant a cube.

The race is close and White has two checkers back versus Black’s one and a half checkers back. Yes, you can hit with any three or (2-1) but even if you hit and Black comes in it’s still an easy take and more likely than not still not a double.

Additionally White is ahead 2-1 to 11 so all things being equal why give a marginal cube when you’re ahead in the match unless you think there’s a small fraction of the time you’re going to get a pass.

Of course Neil isn’t going to pass so forget about that fairy tale and just roll.

The only apparent market losing sequences are White hitting and a dance by Black (9%) plus 6-6 followed by most responses and 4-4 by many responses which accounts for about 13.5% of the time.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B-BC-A-a-dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:31:2:1:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 158
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:33:2:1:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/5*(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.507
Player:
Opponent:
60.88% (G:23.22% B:1.07%)
39.12% (G:9.75% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.495...+0.519) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
2.Rollout124/21(2) 8/5*(2)eq: +0.332 (-0.175)
Player:
Opponent:
57.53% (G:17.68% B:0.61%)
42.47% (G:8.67% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.321...+0.342) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
3.Rollout113/10(2) 8/5*(2)eq: +0.325 (-0.182)
Player:
Opponent:
57.37% (G:20.45% B:0.91%)
42.63% (G:11.46% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.314...+0.337) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36563271
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 8/5*(2) 6/3(2)
[ 2] 13/7(2)
[ 1] 24/18(2)


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5*(2) 6/3(2)

This is one of the standard reference positions. We play 8/5*(2) 6/3(2). If Neil fans, then we have Double / Take.

I always think of the normal match score play then alter it for the particular score if necessary, here it is not necessary.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 8/5*(2) 6/3(2)

Among the basic goals of backgammon that I always strive for this roll accomplishes a lot.

Can I make a point, can I hit, can I escape? The question is which of these goals do you want to strive towards.

Since Black has little development the current concern to escape is not a high priority.

That leaves offensive development as our priority.

First of all, when you can hit and make a point, especially a point high in your board, that is usually a good thing to do.

So the first two “three’s” will be to play 8-5* twice. That accomplishes all of those goals in one quick slash of the sword.

Secondly, how do we play the final two “threes”? Well the five-point by itself with a stack of five checkers on White’s six-point and a blot on his eight-point seems a bit awkward. However White can further develop his position by making his three-point.

That way White unstacks the “heavy” six-point, make a third point in his board, and reduces the number of return shots at the blot on White’s from five to three as now (5-3) doesn’t hit but actually stays out.

It’s a pretty simple decision this move but these “jokers” become more difficult when your opponent, in this case Black has development of their own.

We’ll deal with those situations as they arise as the match progresses.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-B-BC-A---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:-1:64:2:1:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout1Bar/15eq: -0.504
Player:
Opponent:
39.30% (G:8.63% B:0.41%)
60.70% (G:24.20% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.516...-0.493) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 24/18eq: -0.592 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
37.13% (G:8.40% B:0.39%)
62.87% (G:28.46% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.603...-0.581) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 13/7eq: -0.608 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
36.51% (G:8.92% B:0.45%)
63.49% (G:26.11% B:1.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.619...-0.597) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22124770
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/15.

This is automatic, as I come in and out and try to stay out of further troubles by being hit on key points.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B-BC-A-a-dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-23

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 29
             
11 point match
              pip: 40
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-EBCCB---------------cccb-:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:98.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)98.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:1.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)1.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.972+1.952
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+1.000 (0.000)±0.000 (+1.000..+1.000)
     Double/Take:+1.950 (+0.950)±0.001 (+1.949..+1.951)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36563271
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6.4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Pass
[ 0] Take


Grant Hoffman recommends: Pass
About 4 years ago I started doing serious study of all the different racing formulas. I found the best one was Arthur Benjamin’s modified Kleinman Count. https://www.math.hmc.edu/~benjamin/papers/BackgammonRacing.pdf Think of it as the Klienman Count with more calculations. I use a short cut that makes it very quick to do over the board.

First I apply the Reichert adjustments (or iSight as I refer to it). In this case Neil has a penalty of 1 for > 2 checkers on his 2 point – making his count 29 + 1 = 30.

We have a penalty of 6 – 2 / checker > 2 checkers on the 1 point. so 40 + 6 = 46.

iSight also has a penalty of 1 / extra checker you have compared to your opponent, but I do not use this, as it seems to be factored into Arthur Benjamin’s modified Kleinman Count.

My shortcuts involve memorization so I will cut to the chase – with 30 to 40 corresponds to 404 / 51 = 8

7.8 corresponds to 97% so 8 means we are just above 97% winning chances for Neil. I have done this as I would over the board, so if I have made an error, it would be the same error I would make OTB.

If Neil wins > 97%, then I am passing.

Arthur Benjamin’s modified Kleinman Count is fantastic, it takes effort to master it, but is so easy once you do. I use it for money and match. The more difficult part is knowing when to apply the iSight adjustments for Crossovers and when not to. Somewhere on my Backgammon list of things to do, is write an article on Arthur Benjamin’s modified Kleinman Count. The shame of it is, I have never met anyone who uses it. I owe a debt to Danny Kleinman and Arthur Benjamin for all the effort they have put into race formulas.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.


Neil Kazaross wins won point. The USBGF Members now lead 9-away/10-away.



Neil Kazaross: 54 24/20 13/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:54:2:1:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20 13/8eq: +0.067
Player:
Opponent:
50.63% (G:13.99% B:0.79%)
49.37% (G:13.60% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.057...+0.078) - [99.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.048 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
49.89% (G:15.24% B:0.78%)
50.11% (G:13.79% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.036...+0.060) - [0.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54916184
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 13/8.

I almost always split an opening 54. I haven’t had the best results after 13/9 13/8, often getting a front loaded position or rolling something awkward that can’t do anything. The only times I bring two down are when I know it is clearly correct at the score. That means at scores where I want to increase my gammon chances at the expense of fewer wins.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 158
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:33:2:1:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-22

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
             
11 point match
              pip: 82
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBCa--A--aAa---bbbbbbA-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/12* 9/3eq: -1.074
Player:
Opponent:
5.23% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
94.77% (G:10.46% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.076...-1.072) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout113/12* 12/6*eq: -1.141 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
5.57% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
94.43% (G:17.50% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.144...-1.138) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout113/6*eq: -1.171 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
5.53% (G:0.33% B:0.02%)
94.47% (G:20.19% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.174...-1.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 51 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 13/12* 9/3
[ 3] 9/2
[ 2] 13/7 9/8
[ 2] 13/6*


Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/12* 9/3

We are not trying to close Black out here, so after 13/12* we should avoid hitting 12/6* as this gives Black 11 hitting numbers.

We are trying to make sure that no more of our checkers are hit so 9/3 safeties a checker and makes Black’s only hitting number 66.

If our checker on the 24 point was moved to the 17 point, I would still make the same play. 10 extra hitting numbers for Black is just too many.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 13/12* 9/3

White is six-primed here. He wants to avoid having an additional checker picked up so he should make the play which minimizes that.

If he hits and plays 9-3 with the six he will be hit with one number (6-6). If he hits twice he will leave 11 numbers.

By not hitting White leaves 20 shots.

When I was a child I didn’t care for Brussels Sprouts and if given the choice I would rather eat one than 11 or 20. At least that way I would qualify for dessert while still maintaining an appetite.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 109
             
11 point match
              pip: 75
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBCBCa-----A-a---bbbbbbA-:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout1Bar/19 11/6eq: +1.094
Player:
Opponent:
94.52% (G:12.81% B:0.38%)
5.48% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.091...+1.096) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/14eq: +1.052 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
94.56% (G:8.37% B:0.23%)
5.44% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.050...+1.054) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/19 11/6.

I’ll keep the 19 point with 11/6 in hopes that their blot cannot make it to safety.



USBGF Members: 44 12/4 5/1(2)
Neil Kazaross: 41 6/1*
USBGF Members: 54 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 60
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-EBCCAb-----------bbbbbbaA:0:0:-1:66:2:0:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout119/7(2)eq: +1.018
Player:
Opponent:
94.67% (G:5.12% B:0.13%)
5.33% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.017...+1.019) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout119/13 19/1eq: +1.011 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
96.23% (G:2.93% B:0.06%)
3.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.010...+1.012) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 44 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 19/7(2).

I think it is worth some silliness after 19/7(2), since I can often cash if I roll the bad 44 or 55. I try for another checker with little risk as I have cube access. Without cube access I think I’d just close my board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 69
             
11 point match
              pip: 60
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-EBCCA------------dbbbbbaA:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:94.37% (G:3.72% B:0.09%)94.96% (G:3.38% B:0.07%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:5.63% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)5.04% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.926+1.879
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.007±0.001 (+1.006..+1.008)
     Double/Take:+1.848 (+0.841)±0.004 (+1.844..+1.851)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.007)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

As I felt when I decline to close my board last turn, I think I am marginally too good here. I will accept the slight risk of 44 or 55 followed by my opponents entering and will play on here, although I will often have to cash next turn.



USBGF Members: 43 no play
Neil Kazaross: 64 7/3 7/1
Neil Kazaross: 21 7/6 7/5
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 45
             
11 point match
              pip: 60
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-EBCCA-------------bbbcbbA:0:0:-1:22:2:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout16/4 6/Offeq: +1.041
Player:
Opponent:
98.54% (G:4.22% B:0.10%)
1.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.040...+1.043) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19.1 seconds
2.Rollout14/Off(2)eq: +1.030 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
97.60% (G:3.96% B:0.09%)
2.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.028...+1.032) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46.6 seconds
3.Rollout16/4(2) 2/Off(2)eq: +1.024 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
98.38% (G:3.08% B:0.05%)
1.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.023...+1.025) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.8 seconds
4.Rollout16/4 6/2 3/1eq: +1.024 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
97.84% (G:2.81% B:0.06%)
2.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.022...+1.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18.4 seconds
5.Rollout16/2(2)eq: +1.021 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
98.46% (G:2.28% B:0.04%)
1.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.021...+1.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11.6 seconds
6.Rollout16/4(2) 5/3(2)eq: +1.016 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
97.69% (G:1.66% B:0.03%)
2.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.016...+1.016) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7.8 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4 6/0.

Some slight risk to push for the gammon seems justified. If I play 6/4 6/0 and then roll a blotting double and get hit, I should be able to offer a strong cube from the bar. Creating a gap on my 4 point looks wrong as it will slow me down later much of the time and increase blotting risk.



USBGF Members: 52 no play
Neil Kazaross: 63 5/2 5/0
USBGF Members: 55 b/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 29
             
11 point match
              pip: 40
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-EBCCB---------------cccb-:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2017-09-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
             
11 point match
              pip: 87
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBC-a-----Ba---bbbbbbaA:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout1Bar/24* 5/1eq: -1.127
Player:
Opponent:
5.24% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
94.76% (G:15.79% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.128...-1.126) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/24* 13/9eq: -1.131 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
5.25% (G:0.23% B:0.01%)
94.75% (G:16.10% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.132...-1.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 18 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/24* 13/9
[11] b/24* 5/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 108
             
11 point match
              pip: 82
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBBC-a-A---Aa---bbbbbbA-:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.xgRollout1Bar/19 11/6eq: +1.084
Player:
Opponent:
94.87% (G:11.58% B:0.35%)
5.13% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.083...+1.085) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/19 18/13eq: +1.082 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
94.55% (G:11.60% B:0.34%)
5.45% (G:0.24% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.081...+1.082) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 08 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/14eq: +1.066 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
94.67% (G:9.80% B:0.28%)
5.33% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.064...+1.069) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/19 18/13.

I think the plan is to try to catch another checker. I think that this means that I want to avoid being hit and also to try to maximize the number of rolls my opponents can roll that leave a direct shot. 18/13 appears to do just that as they have some bad 5’s and 6’s. The alternative plan is to place more pressure on the trapped blot on my ace point with 11/6 but then I usually get hit and will need a joker from the bar to hit back.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
             
11 point match
              pip: 82
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBCa--A--aAa---bbbbbbA-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABABBCb----bBB--a-bcbba--:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout16/3 6/1eq: +0.110
Player:
Opponent:
54.14% (G:3.87% B:0.12%)
45.86% (G:6.55% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.103...+0.117) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 5/2eq: +0.029 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
51.85% (G:3.38% B:0.07%)
48.15% (G:8.91% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.020...+0.037) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout16/1 4/1eq: -0.017 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:
50.91% (G:3.10% B:0.06%)
49.09% (G:9.28% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.026...-0.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout114/6eq: -0.069 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:
47.61% (G:8.26% B:0.35%)
52.39% (G:8.96% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.075...-0.064) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72304706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 6/3 6/1
[ 3] 14/6


Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/3 6/1

Neil’s board is too strong to allow us to do any form of paying now. Therefore we should rearrange our checkers with in our inner board and strengthen it at the same time with 6/3 6/1. Maybe when we pay, Neil with have given up his mid-point meaning we could leave fewer shots.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116

             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=-ABABBCb—-bBB–a-ccbaa–:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.XG Roller++6/3 6/1eq: +0.136
Player:
Opponent:
55.37% (G:6.05% B:0.17%)
44.63% (G:7.03% B:0.13%)
2.XG Roller++14/9 6/3eq: +0.125 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
55.03% (G:10.88% B:0.45%)
44.97% (G:9.75% B:0.26%)
3.XG Roller++14/6eq: +0.095 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
53.82% (G:8.87% B:0.30%)
46.18% (G:7.04% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

In order to make paying now correct, we would have to leave a second blot in Neil’s board


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBAb----bBB--a-bcbba--:0:0:-1:33:2:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10 13/7 5/2eq: -0.132
Player:
Opponent:
46.17% (G:5.77% B:0.10%)
53.83% (G:1.41% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.138...-0.126) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout113/10(2) 8/2eq: -0.154 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
44.83% (G:5.20% B:0.09%)
55.17% (G:1.38% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.160...-0.147) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 13/7 5/2.

This is an easy play since I can’t hold everything and still trail substantially in the race, so I must retain the 18 point. Therefore, 13/10(2) 5/2 then 10/7 preparing to make a prime which can allow me to play for the gammon if I hit a quick shot and will prevent any jokers from the bar.



USBGF Members: 63 14/5
Neil Kazaross: 61 18/11*
USBGF Members: 54 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 94
             
11 point match
              pip: 92
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBCAa-----Baa-aabbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:94.08% (G:18.68% B:0.38%)94.68% (G:18.64% B:0.35%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:5.92% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)5.32% (G:0.61% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities+1.069+2.194
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.105±0.003 (+1.102..+1.108)
     Double/Take:+2.161 (+1.056)±0.006 (+2.155..+2.166)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.105)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 9.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I am clearly too good here as most rolls make a full prime and the only thing I really don’t want to roll is boxes. If some rare accident happens to me, my opponents have a crashed 5 point board, so I may survive with a 6 from the bar.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 94
             
11 point match
              pip: 92
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBCAa-----Baa-aabbbbb-A:0:0:-1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout110/6 8/7eq: +1.151
Player:
Opponent:
95.66% (G:20.24% B:0.46%)
4.34% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.148...+1.154) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout111/7 8/7eq: +1.140 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
95.35% (G:19.63% B:0.47%)
4.65% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.136...+1.143) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 23 seconds
3.Rollout111/7 10/9eq: +1.134 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
95.23% (G:18.89% B:0.49%)
4.77% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.131...+1.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout118/17 11/7eq: +1.131 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
94.78% (G:19.49% B:0.42%)
5.22% (G:0.15% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.128...+1.134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout118/14 8/7eq: +1.127 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
95.35% (G:18.12% B:0.37%)
4.65% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.124...+1.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 8/7.

I’ll make my prime and put a builder in an optimal spot. I will be happy to close my board here as then I can win a gammon about a quarter of the time



USBGF Members: 51 b/24 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 89
             
11 point match
              pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBC-a-----Ba---bcbbbbA-:0:0:-1:32:2:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout16/1*eq: +1.156
Player:
Opponent:
96.19% (G:19.58% B:0.29%)
3.81% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.154...+1.159) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout118/16 11/8eq: +1.120 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
94.60% (G:15.81% B:0.45%)
5.40% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.118...+1.122) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout111/6eq: +1.113 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
94.62% (G:14.93% B:0.41%)
5.38% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.111...+1.115) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1*.

I’ll hit with 6/1*, going straight for the close out with about 25% gammon chances if I achieve it. This looks better to me than following an often difficult road to catching a 2nd checker since my opponents have a 5 point board and can often get their checkers on the mid point to safety.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
             
11 point match
              pip: 87
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBC-a-----Ba---bbbbbbaA:0:0:1:14:2:0:0:11:10
to play 14

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 118
             
11 point match
              pip: 107
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bBB--aabcbb---:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout18/4 8/3eq: +0.162
Player:
Opponent:
55.77% (G:4.32% B:0.16%)
44.23% (G:6.18% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.155...+0.169) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 5/1eq: +0.137 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
55.44% (G:2.90% B:0.07%)
44.56% (G:8.50% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.129...+0.144) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.Rollout16/2 6/1eq: +0.137 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
55.31% (G:2.82% B:0.07%)
44.69% (G:8.08% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.129...+0.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
4.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.115 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
54.68% (G:2.95% B:0.11%)
45.32% (G:8.37% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.107...+0.123) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 41 seconds
5.Rollout18/4 6/1eq: -0.032 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent:
50.25% (G:8.55% B:0.37%)
49.75% (G:11.71% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.039...-0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 50 seconds
6.Rollout114/5eq: -0.103 (-0.265)
Player:
Opponent:
47.47% (G:3.20% B:0.10%)
52.53% (G:9.91% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.109...-0.097) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72473954
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/4 8/3
[ 4] 6/1 5/1
[ 4] 13/9 13/8
[ 3] 6/2 6/1
[ 3] 14/5
[ 1] 8/4 6/1
[ 1] 14/10 14/9


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4 8/3

When I looked at this my gut instinct was 8/4 8/3. It sure looks ugly but does not leave a shot. I was unsure but went with that. I then checked and it was correct. What I had not fully appreciated was if I play safe and wait – Neil does not have that much timing here. He will have to damage his position by either giving up his mid-point or moving deeper into his board.

To test this I moved Neil’s spare checker on his 5 point backwards and when it gets to his 9 point, he has enough timing that 13/9 13/8 becomes our correct play.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122

             
11 point match
              pip: 107
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=-AB-ABCbB—bBB-aaabbbb—:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.XG Roller++13/9 13/8eq: +0.178
Player:
Opponent:
55.42% (G:3.70% B:0.18%)
44.58% (G:8.01% B:0.27%)
2.XG Roller++8/4 8/3eq: +0.133 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
55.45% (G:4.49% B:0.13%)
44.55% (G:6.07% B:0.13%)
3.XG Roller++6/2 6/1eq: +0.131 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
56.13% (G:3.10% B:0.05%)
43.87% (G:7.99% B:0.17%)
4.XG Roller++6/1 5/1eq: +0.124 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
55.82% (G:2.94% B:0.06%)
44.18% (G:8.17% B:0.17%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 8/4 8/3

This is a particularly difficult “pay me now, pay me later” position.

The reason is that most times, when you “pay now”, the reward is an immediate win.

Here, even if you are missed when you break the mid-point (13-9, 13-8) you still have to clear an outfield point and only be up approximately 11 or 12 pips which is far from a winning position.

And when you are hit, you have two blots in your board so Black can play extra aggressively in an effort to prime White in or even close them out.

If you break the eight-point however, your next six barring double sixes will leave a direct shot. At least in that situation you will have a four-point board and possible make a fifth point is you roll 6-5.

At that point, Black will attempt to make a fifth point in his board with his three builders. And while he is unlikely to make the new point he can at least slot it in an attempt to cover the following roll.

And even then, White will only leave a shot 10/36 times.

If he leaves a shot with (6-2, 6-3, 6-4 or 6-4) Black will hit with 15 numbers and if White leaves a shot with (6-1) Black will hit with 11 numbers.

That averages out to about one third of the time so the immediate possibility for White to leave a shot and then be hit is about 9%. That’s quite a bit less often than the 30.55% of the time White is hit if he volunteers.

So since an immediate hit is nearly as bad as a later hit you’re better off hoping to get lucky later.

If the nature of the position were such that Black was unprepared to contain a White checker if it were hit, that’s the time you want to take your chances and leave the shot.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 118
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABABBCb----bBB--aabcbb---:0:0:-1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout17/2eq: -0.180
Player:
Opponent:
43.67% (G:6.30% B:0.20%)
56.33% (G:5.09% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.183...-0.177) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 58 minutes
2.xgRollout18/3eq: -0.190 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
42.86% (G:5.72% B:0.18%)
57.14% (G:4.22% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.193...-0.187) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 51 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72473954
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/2.

Even though I sometimes get a shot next turn, I will continue with my plan to further prepare my board and slot 7/2. This should win more often than 8/3. For 7/2 to fail, I have to hit a shot and be hit back and then fail to enter a board that usually will have a blot or two in it. The problem with 8/3 is that it can leave me some difficulties playing my next roll when I don’t get a shot.

Of course after 7/2, I may also roll a hit and cover joker if my opponents blot.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABABBCb----bBB--a-bcbba--:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bB--Bbabbbb---:0:0:1:11:2:0:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout116/14(2)eq: +0.193
Player:
Opponent:
56.45% (G:2.86% B:0.08%)
43.55% (G:4.86% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.186...+0.200) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.Rollout116/15(2) 6/4eq: +0.088 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:
53.59% (G:3.72% B:0.12%)
46.41% (G:7.02% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.081...+0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 29711821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 16/14(2)
[ 9] 16/15(2) 6/4


Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/14(2)

After the roll we will be up 18 pips in the race. Building a stronger board is not important. So when ahead in the race – Race. 16/14(2).

This adds 61 to our list of good rolls.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 16/14(2)

In general, when you’re ahead race and when you’re behind play for contact.

In this case, White is ahead 14 pips after the play and should just try to get home safely.

By moving (16-14 [2]) he can safety his back checkers with (1-1, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5, 6-6 and 6-1). If he makes any other play he will have far fewer rolls that clear his back point.

And if anyone is concerned about giving Black too much room to maneuver his checkers by giving up control of the sixteen and fifteen-points, notice that Black has two spare checkers on his eight point and one spare checker on his seven point so White will have likely run out of timing far before Black does.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
             
11 point match
              pip: 107
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bBB--babbbb---:0:0:-1:21:2:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout18/5eq: -0.272
Player:
Opponent:
40.54% (G:5.17% B:0.15%)
59.46% (G:2.93% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.275...-0.269) - [99.8%]
Duration: 6 hours 51 minutes
2.Rollout18/7 8/6eq: -0.280 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
40.27% (G:5.02% B:0.14%)
59.73% (G:2.91% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.283...-0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 36 minutes
3.Rollout28/6 7/6eq: -0.283 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
39.95% (G:4.86% B:0.14%)
60.05% (G:2.95% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.291...-0.276) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72473954
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72473954
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5.

It looks routine just to make and keep my bar point and 5 prime. But lets slow down and take a look at the future. My opponents won’t blot next roll (the 61 that is usually a horror clears nicely). Then I will have to play, and since I need to maintain both holding points, I will have to play into my board breaking my 5 prime, unless I roll 54 to make my 2 point. This means that my target is the 2 point rather than the bar point. 8/5 better aims at my 2 point since there are 3 builders. My 6 can also be played 8/2 rather than 7/1.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 118
             
11 point match
              pip: 107
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bBB--aabcbb---:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--BDbC---bB--Bcacbb----:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.Rollout16/1 5/1eq: +0.052
Player:
Opponent:
52.98% (G:4.36% B:0.14%)
47.02% (G:8.48% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.049...+0.055) - [99.5%]
Duration: 9 hours 07 minutes
2.playedRollout18/4 6/1eq: +0.046 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
52.90% (G:5.12% B:0.20%)
47.10% (G:8.72% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.042...+0.049) - [0.2%]
Duration: 8 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout213/9 13/8eq: +0.041 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
53.56% (G:4.57% B:0.15%)
46.44% (G:6.27% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.033...+0.048) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 8/4 6/1
[ 3] 8/3 6/2
[ 2] 13/9 13/8
[ 2] 6/1 5/1
[ 2] 16/11 8/4


Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1 5/1

I have a simple rule in these holding game positions – I volunteer a shot only after I have doubled. The reason is simple, if I double I may never need to leave a shot as my opponent could pass. I want to give a good double, so plays like 13/8 13/9 means I could get hit and never get my chance to double.

So if I scratch 13/8 13/9, both of my other choices involve 6/1 so I would play that then look at the resulting position. If I play 8/4, this is good for the bear off but it makes my 6’s awkward. So I would save a 6 and play 5/1. Note that this is not because I want a strong board; that is a small bonus but largely irrelevant.

In a chouette I would be happy with either play that involves 6/1.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax:

There are two main themes here and they come down to should White risk the shot now before your opponent has a complete prime, or delay the shot and potentially be facing a better board and prime by Black.

I personally don’t like leaving the shot here for two reasons. The first reason is that you might be able to clear one of both of your outfield points with a timely double. The second reason is that whether you are hit now or later, it’s pretty daunting.

The main advantage of leaving the shot now is that seven of the hitting numbers still give you a seven off the bar to get back into the game. Only (2-1 and 2-6) hit and make the five-prime.

However that’s a pretty steep price to pay when you can get home without the additional risk.

When taking such a risk, I look for some compelling reasons to do so. For example, if White’s timing was even worse and he didn’t have a spare checker on his eight-point, that would most likely be correct to take the risk.

Also, if Black’s containment position was weaker, say he had his three-point instead of his four-point it probably would also be correct to take the risk.

However in this case, Black is in about as strong a position as you can imagine where it’s close at all to leave the shot.

The other plays that don’t leave the shot, further weaken your timing and give you bad sixes.

You can either make your ace-point which saves a spare checker on the eight-point or you can play (8-4, 6-1) or make the ace-point, which leaves fewer blots but guarantees that if White rolls any six (barring 6-6) he will put a piece out of play.

If he plays a slower development (8-4, 6-1) he might not put a piece out of play with a six but if the position gets to a scramble you might prefer to have your checkers more consolidated and not have too many blots in your board.

Positions like these are very instructive because all of the candidate plays are quite reasonable.

What you can do as an exercise is to manipulate several of the variables to see how much of a change needs to be make before any of the three candidate plays becomes clear.



Neil Kazaross: 53 8/3 6/3


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bB--Bbabbbb---:0:0:1:11:2:0:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 133
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--ADbBB--bB--Bdacba----:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.Rollout16/1eq: +0.096
Player:
Opponent:
54.07% (G:3.58% B:0.13%)
45.93% (G:6.71% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.093...+0.100) - [99.4%]
Duration: 11 hours 52 minutes
2.Rollout16/5 6/2eq: +0.091 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
53.88% (G:3.87% B:0.15%)
46.12% (G:6.57% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.087...+0.094) - [0.6%]
Duration: 11 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout15/1 2/1eq: +0.086 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
53.73% (G:3.55% B:0.13%)
46.27% (G:6.76% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.083...+0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 45 minutes
4.playedRollout19/8 9/5eq: +0.076 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
53.39% (G:4.17% B:0.18%)
46.61% (G:6.54% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.073...+0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 52 minutes
5.Rollout26/2 5/4eq: +0.056 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
53.06% (G:3.34% B:0.12%)
46.94% (G:7.35% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.048...+0.064) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
6.Rollout29/5 6/5eq: +0.018 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
51.63% (G:7.46% B:0.35%)
48.37% (G:8.74% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.010...+0.027) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
7.Rollout28/4 6/5eq: -0.009 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:
51.19% (G:7.71% B:0.32%)
48.81% (G:9.53% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.017...0.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
8.Rollout213/9 6/5eq: -0.052 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:
49.58% (G:10.00% B:0.36%)
50.42% (G:9.25% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.061...-0.043) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 9/8 9/5
[ 3] 6/5 6/2
[ 3] 6/1
[ 1] 13/9 6/5
[ 1] 16/11


Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1

I see this misplayed a lot so I am glad this came up.

Our game plan here is just to bring our checkers home safely and bear off quickly. So any move that plays 9/5 , I would reject. The 9 point is a landing pad, and keeping it means we can play 54 from the midpoint if we want to. Sure it is one roll but we do not have to roll it next roll, if we keep the 9 point, we will have more than 1 roll to roll it.

So I would just more my internal checker(s) to give myself a good distribution of checkers. I would like to end up with at least 2 checkers on each of the 4, 5 and 6 points. I want to avoid ending up with more than 2 checkers on the 3, 2 or 1 point – especially at this stage, when an unfortunate 6 later on would put a fourth checker on the 2 point. I was drawn to 6/5 6/2 but this does put a third checker on the 2 point and gives us 1 less playable 5 inside our board.

5/1 2/1 takes a checker off our 5 point where we want it for the bear off so scratch that. That just leaves 6/1. This puts a checker on a vacant point, keeps our checker on the 5 point, and avoids putting another checker on our 2 point. So although it looks ugly, I have to play 6/1.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 6/1

I like (9-5, 9-8) but xG has it as a mistake. Why is that?

I can think of a few reasons right off the top of my head.

First of all, by breaking the nine-point if White rolls 5-4 he can’t safely break his midpoint. And with a modest race lead, his ambition should be to break outfield points preferably safely.

The second reason my play could be wrong is the fact that White has bad sixes. If you notice, White already owns the two-point and other than leaving a direct shot, the only safe six to play is from (8-2).

Black’s position rates to get better and better and White is either going to need some help with a timely double or the (5-4) that would have afforded him much needed timing to get his pieces home without leaving a shot.

A better move is the simple (6-1) which is still developmental and by the time White might leave a shot, he himself could have a four or even a five-point board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 133
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--BDbC---bB--Bdacba----:0:0:-1:31:2:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/4eq: -0.124
Player:
Opponent:
44.83% (G:6.97% B:0.22%)
55.17% (G:4.12% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.132...-0.116) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
2.xgRollout18/7 8/5eq: -0.141 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
44.42% (G:6.94% B:0.21%)
55.58% (G:4.49% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.149...-0.133) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4.

8/4 builds my board and is nicely distributed.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--BDbC---bB--Bcacbb----:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B---DbBB--bB--Cdaea-----:0:0:1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout116/5eq: +0.138
Player:
Opponent:
55.00% (G:4.37% B:0.19%)
45.00% (G:5.33% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.131...+0.146) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout116/10 6/1eq: +0.057 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
52.93% (G:4.57% B:0.16%)
47.07% (G:6.86% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.049...+0.065) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
3.Rollout19/4 9/3eq: +0.023 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
51.82% (G:4.45% B:0.19%)
48.18% (G:6.93% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.015...+0.031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 16/5


Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/5

We will be ahead in the race by 11 pips after the roll. The 5 point is a good point to start and also coming down to 2 checkers on both our 16 and 13 points means that doubles play better for us. To further see what I mean about doubles, look at how 55 and 33 play for us with 3 checkers on the 16 point (and 2 on the mid-point) and compare it to 2 checkers on both the 16 and mid points. 55 and 33 play better. I know those are only 2 rolls, but it all adds up.

16/5 and see what the dice bring us.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 16/5

If you can’t escape at least you can prepare to escape. By playing (16-5) White strips the outside point with a race lead.

That allows White to advance further with his escaping doubles such as (1-1, 3-3, 5-5 and 6-6).

And one more thing, if you don’t play (16-5) you have to give up an outfield point (probably the nine-point). By keeping the nine-point it gives White a better chance to bring his pieces home safely as White might elect to break his mid-point with 5-4 in the near future.

And for those of you experimental enough to consider (16-10, 6-1) that puts you in a situation of the “negative free roll”.

What that means is that Black will only hit you when it is to his advantage to do so with numbers like (3-1, 3-2 and 3-3!)

Would you play the lottery if you couldn’t win, but if someone picked the lucky six numbers you would have to pay them the grand prize?

I didn’t think so.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--ADbBB--bB--Bdaea-----:0:0:-1:21:2:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout16/5 6/4eq: -0.219
Player:
Opponent:
42.26% (G:5.83% B:0.20%)
57.74% (G:4.38% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.227...-0.210) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
2.Rollout17/5 6/5eq: -0.239 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
41.68% (G:5.28% B:0.19%)
58.32% (G:4.63% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.247...-0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
3.Rollout18/5eq: -0.246 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
41.53% (G:5.54% B:0.17%)
58.47% (G:4.97% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.254...-0.239) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 6/4.

This roll allows me to make my 5 point and slot the next point in line. I want to create a winning board/prime if I hit a shot later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 133
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--ADbBB--bB--Bdacba----:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=------EbCB--dB-aBc-e---A--:0:0:1:64:2:0:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.007
Player:
Opponent:
51.22% (G:9.96% B:0.34%)
48.78% (G:10.31% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.017...+0.004) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout19/5 9/3eq: -0.059 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
49.80% (G:9.89% B:0.34%)
50.20% (G:11.00% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.069...-0.050) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 8/2 6/2
[ 5] 9/5 9/3


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2 6/2

There could be some hitting going on (we hope) so we need to prepare for it. We need to have another point in our board and we need it now, and the only point that we can make is the 2 point so it will have to do.

On the good side, we have 10 checkers in the zone and after we play 8/2 6/2 we will have a better board.

Even if Neil does not leave an immediate shot, improving our board must be a good thing.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 8/2 6/2

When I first looked at this position I wondered, what’s the big deal? It seems like the only reasonable play is to make the two-point.

White is ahead in the race and can’t or escape, so he should at least improve his position in some concrete way.

By making the two-point White adds to the strength of his home board, and should Black leave a shot (which he does a third to half of the time) White will be better prepared to contain Black should he be hit.

Is there any other reasonable play besides making the two-point?

Well, slotting the five and three points by breaking the nine-point isn’t terribly out of line.

It comes down to the question of a bird in the hand versus two in the bush.

Is it better to have the two-point which is a weak point, or attempt to make the five and three-points?

If White makes the double slotting play and Black leaves a shot, White might hit and make a new point in his board, or roll a number that hits but can’t make a second point in his board so risking the blots might not pay off immediately.

If Black didn’t have White’s bar-point then the double slotting move might be a better choice as it could lead to White being able to prime Black in.

However, even if White is able to make his five and three points and then hit Black, White can’t prime Black in due to Black owning the 18-point.

Also, if you make the conservative “two-point”, there is nothing saying you won’t develop your middle board points more slowly. And since both sides are at a developmental stage, there is a lot of time before very crucial sequences may occur.

I suppose since it’s right to make the two-point that that that in general it’s better to for the bird in the hand. Unless of course that little birdy hasn’t been to the bathroom yet.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 143
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B---DbBB--dB-aBc-e---A--:0:0:-1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout110/5eq: -0.245
Player:
Opponent:
43.01% (G:8.72% B:0.32%)
56.99% (G:13.07% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.256...-0.235) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
2.Rollout16/2* 2/1eq: -0.285 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
42.20% (G:8.19% B:0.24%)
57.80% (G:13.72% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.294...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
3.Rollout110/6 8/7eq: -0.313 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
41.31% (G:7.93% B:0.28%)
58.69% (G:13.33% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.324...-0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5.

As I have to blot no matter what, I’ll just play constructively and slot my 5 point.



USBGF Members: 61 23/16


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B---DbBB--dB--Cc-ea-----:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.099
Player:
Opponent:
46.40% (G:4.43% B:0.14%)
53.60% (G:3.39% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.107...-0.092) - [99.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
2.xgRollout113/7 8/3eq: -0.115 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
46.11% (G:4.26% B:0.14%)
53.89% (G:3.80% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.123...-0.107) - [0.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 13/7.

13/8 13/7 tries to make good points in case an early shot somehow pops up. I can move deeper into my board later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B---DbBB--bB--Cdaea-----:0:0:1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 159
             
11 point match
              pip: 178
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-Ca--eD---c-e---AAA:0:0:1:44:2:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 24/20 13/9*(2)eq: +0.117
Player:
Opponent:
53.10% (G:15.47% B:0.75%)
46.90% (G:10.82% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.112...+0.122) - [96.8%]
Duration: 19 hours 59 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/9* 8/4(2)eq: +0.110 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
52.41% (G:19.63% B:0.90%)
47.59% (G:12.83% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.105...+0.115) - [3.2%]
Duration: 17 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/21 13/9* 6/2(2)eq: +0.071 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
51.58% (G:18.16% B:0.87%)
48.42% (G:12.47% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.059...+0.083) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/21 24/16 13/9*eq: +0.005 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
50.77% (G:14.98% B:0.77%)
49.23% (G:13.45% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.007...+0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes
5.Rollout2Bar/21 13/9*(2) 6/2eq: -0.043 (-0.160)
Player:
Opponent:
49.71% (G:14.66% B:0.63%)
50.29% (G:13.60% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.055...-0.032) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes
6.Rollout2Bar/21 13/9*(3)eq: -0.061 (-0.177)
Player:
Opponent:
49.05% (G:15.05% B:0.73%)
50.95% (G:12.82% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.072...-0.049) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
7.Rollout2Bar/21 13/9*(2) 8/4eq: -0.062 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:
49.09% (G:15.65% B:0.73%)
50.91% (G:14.20% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.073...-0.050) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
8.Rollout2Bar/21 13/9* 9/1*eq: -0.068 (-0.185)
Player:
Opponent:
48.52% (G:15.24% B:0.38%)
51.48% (G:13.39% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.080...-0.057) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46433025
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46433025
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] b/21 24/20 13/9*(2)
[ 7] b/21 13/9* 8/4(2)
[ 3] b/21 13/9* 6/2(2)
[ 3] b/21 13/9*/1*
[ 1] b/21 13/9*(3)


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 24/20 13/9*(2)

We enter Bar/21 then hit 13/9* then decide how to pay the last two 4’s.

We could play 8/4(2) making an inner board point but this leaves return shots from the bar on our side of the board.

Better is playing 13/9 and 24/20. This puts another checker into our attack zone and starts the 20 point. Even if we are hit with a Joker 33 or 11 we would have good chances of anchoring on the 21 point. This seems like the natural play to me.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: b/21 24/20 13/9*(2)

After entering with the forced four (bar-21), I look to see what my highest priorities are.

In this case, my second four will be to hit (13-9*), which leaves two more fours.

I can either play another checker from 13-9 making the nine-point or play 8-4 twice making my four point.

If I do continue to play 13-9 and make the nine-point I’ll play 24-20 with the last four.

What is my reasoning for either play which by the way both seem reasonable?

My first choice would be to play (bar-21, 13-9*[2], 24-20). I like that because it doesn’t leave any shots on my side of the board, and still prepares to make inner board points on subsequent rolls barring a joker by Black on his next shake.

Black does have some strong shots from the bar (1-1, 2-2 and 4-4) but for the most part, White will be prepared to either improve his position on his next shake by hitting Black and sending him back (should Black have entered from the bar hitting), make a high anchor in Black’s board, or making a new point in White’s board.

The other, more aggressive move is to enter, hit and make White’s four-point. This move puts Black on the bar against a two-point board, but leaves himself vulnerable to eight return shots.

In actuality the plays are very close so not much equity is gained or sacrificed by either move so how do you know over the board which one is better?

Let’s try to compare Black’s rolls after each move to see if there is some concrete mathematical evidence for which play is stronger?

After play “A”, making the nine-point, Black has eight “good to great” rolls versus one bad roll (6-6). The stronger rolls for Black are (1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-3, 4-4 and 5-4) a net gain of seven beneficial rolls for Black.

After play “B”, making White’s four-point Black has twelve “good to great” rolls versus the four rolls that fail to enter.

Those twelve rolls include (1-1, 2-2, 3-2, 6-2, 5-3, 6-3 and 5-4).

So after subtracting the four bad rolls for Black from his twelve good rolls, that leaves a net gain of eight rolls for Black following White’s choice to make an inner board point.

That’s slightly in favor of making the nine point as you leave one fewer net good rolls for Black.

Perhaps the closeness of this ratio to some extent answers why the plays are very close in equity.

It’s not an exact science as it would take more insight or post game work to truly indicate how much equity is lost after a “good” roll for Black as compared to what equity is gained after a bad roll for Black.

I don’t know too many players that could make those calculations over the board, so perhaps this shortcut of “good rolls gained or lost” is a reasonable short cut to help determine which checker play to make.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 168
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----E-CB--eB---c-eAA-A--:0:0:-1:62:2:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 24/18eq: -0.236
Player:
Opponent:
44.32% (G:9.16% B:0.38%)
55.68% (G:16.56% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.249...-0.224) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/2*eq: -0.296 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
42.56% (G:9.71% B:0.47%)
57.44% (G:17.19% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.308...-0.284) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46433025
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 24/18.

I must hop out 24/18, as 8/2* strips my 8 point and weakens my game and 13/7 is a triple shot. 24/18 also can take advantage of the fact that my opponent’s 9 and 13 points are stripped.



USBGF Members: 54 21/16 20/16


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a---EaCB--eB--Bc-e---A--:0:0:-1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout123/18 13/10eq: -0.135
Player:
Opponent:
45.57% (G:8.07% B:0.28%)
54.43% (G:9.65% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.146...-0.124) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout123/18 6/3eq: -0.181 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
44.53% (G:7.57% B:0.27%)
55.47% (G:10.32% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.191...-0.171) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout123/18 8/5eq: -0.210 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
43.70% (G:7.99% B:0.26%)
56.30% (G:10.83% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.221...-0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 58 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46433025
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/18 13/10.

23/18 is a must, making a good anchor and minimizing any attacking threats against me. Now I have a choice of three 3’s. 8/5 is rejected as an improper slot stripping my 8 point while leaving a large stack on my 6 point. So the choice is between 6/3 leaving only 11 shots and 13/10 leaving 15 shots. I give a slight nod to 13/10 as a builder for some key points and since most of the numbers that hit leave return shots. I also lose fewer pips when hit on the 10 point rather than the 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=------EbCB--dB-aBc-e---A--:0:0:1:64:2:0:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 135
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--BBC-C---cCb--cBe------:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:75.57% (G:31.28% B:1.13%)75.43% (G:33.80% B:1.21%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:24.43% (G:4.18% B:0.18%)24.57% (G:4.56% B:0.26%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.810+1.692
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+1.053±0.007 (+1.046..+1.060)
     Double/Take:+1.479 (+0.426)±0.013 (+1.466..+1.492)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.053)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 11.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42962911
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] Double
[ 6] No Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

Let’s use the Value Equation :- VE = Prime + Blitz + Race + Contact

Prime = +2 as we have 4/5 points of a prime

Blitz = +2.5 as we have good blitzing points plus an opponent’s checker on the bar

Race = +3

Contact = +1 as Neil has no anchor, no board and is on the bar so has limited contact.

so VE = 2 + 2.5 + 3 + 1 = 8.5

One of the strange things about Backgammon in New Zealand is the Jacoby rule is not used in money play. This makes the transition to match play much easier, and means I always think “am I too good to double?”. I always like to think about a position in terms of a money game (or normal match score) then alter it to the score. Here for money without Jacoby I think this is too Good to Double but would double as I would get some takes. For Money with Jacoby you have to double and I think it would be a close pass. If this is too good to double without Jacoby (or at a Normal match score) then a 1 point lead means we must still be too Good to double. I am also confident that Neil will pass.

I could be wrong but let’s play on and re-evaluate next turn.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Neil Kazaross passes.

I have a huge pass here, and I think the USBGF Members were actually too good. I’m on the bar, and even if I roll a 32, I still will be a substantial underdog.


USBGF Members win one point, and now lead 9-away/11-away



USBGF Members: 41 24/23 13/9


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout124/16*eq: +0.218
Player:
Opponent:
54.50% (G:14.68% B:0.77%)
45.50% (G:12.68% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.206...+0.230) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.064 (-0.283)
Player:
Opponent:
47.47% (G:13.94% B:0.63%)
52.53% (G:16.04% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.076...-0.053) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46433025
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/16*.

I’m happy to hit 24/16*, which is lots better than making my 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 159
             
11 point match
              pip: 178
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-Ca--eD---c-e---AAA:0:0:1:44:2:0:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 32
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABaC-a--------Aaa-cc-bab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:72.70% (G:37.39% B:1.30%)72.63% (G:37.23% B:1.43%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:27.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)27.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.848+1.728
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.848 (-0.152)±0.006 (+0.843..+0.854)
     Double/Take:+1.502 (+0.502)±0.008 (+1.493..+1.510)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42962911
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] Double
[13] No Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

I will approach this as I would over the board. We know that we win 49.2% of the time with 8 checkers off and we have a checker on the bar and no gap on our 1 point. We might be missed and so not end up on the bar, therefore we have to have a greater than 50% chance of winning. The fact that Black has two gaps in his board, and a blot in one of them and we could win a Gammon means this has to be either a double or Too Good to Double. As it is not immediately obvious to me that it is too Good, I would Double and give my opponent the tough decision.

I asked myself ‘Would I double if Black had a stronger board?’ So I gave Black a closed board and I still like the double.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 92

             
11 point match
              pip: 32
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-ABaC-a——–Aa–bbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:69.03% (G:25.37% B:0.49%)68.70% (G:26.37% B:0.48%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:30.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)31.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.644+1.320
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.642 (-0.358)
Double/Take:+1.107 (+0.107)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: Double

I would double as White and expect Neil to pass.

While White can still win a gammon, there is too great a chance he can leave a shot and be hit and then potentially lose the game.

What I would do in a situation like this is to go through White’s numbers and see how many times Black gets a single shot, a double shot and no shots. Then I try to estimate how often White will be hit and possibly lose.

White has six great rolls (1-1, 2-1, 5-5 and 6-5) which either safety the back checker or hit and cover in his home board.

His good rolls include (3-1, 2-2, 3-2, 3-3 and 6-4) which either leave only indirect shots, or a single shot. he exception is 3-3 which leaves a little more than a single shot, but in the process, hits and makes another point in his board which enhance his game winning and gammon chances.

On thirteen rolls White is in fair shape as he only leaves a single direct shot as well as an indirect shot. Those numbers include (4-1, 5-1, 4-2, 5-2, 4-3, 5-3). I also include 4-4 as a fair shake even though it leaves a double shot, as White will win a gammon if he is missed.

Another nine times, White will roll a poor shake where he will leave a double shot. Those rolls include (6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-6 and 5-4). Taking a look at (6-6) it’s a great shot if you are missed, but you will be hit 75% of the time after this highly volatile roll.

So if you look at the breakdown between “great, good, fair and poor” rolls, the ratio is “6-great, 8-good, 13-fair, and 9 poor”.

That is slightly skewed to the fair to poor end of the spectrum and while this isn’t entirely scientific, for OTB quick analysis it indicates to me that is isn’t quite “too good” but still a double and pass since White already has eight checkers off.

That is indeed the case here although there is no guarantee that if you use this rough guess “great-poor” spectrum analysis you will get the correct action.

What makes it tempting to play on is the fact that Black has two points open in his board. Should White leave a shot and then be hit, he still has a reasonable chance to escape and win the game with some small gammon aspirations still available.


Neil Kazaross passes.

This is a huge pass for me since while I win enough games to take, I get gammoned too often when I don’t hit. Hitting also doesn’t come close to guaranteeing a win. Yet my opponents don’t have a good enough game to risk playing on, and they will be unhappy to be hit especially if they roll something that hits me and I then can pick up more than one checker.


USBGF Members win one point, and lead 10-away/11-away.



Neil Kazaross: 62 24/18 13/11
USBGF Members: 66 24/18(2) 13/7*(2)
Neil Kazaross: 52 b/20 13/11
USBGF Members: 22 7/5*(2) 6/4(2)
Neil Kazaross: 44 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 135
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--BBC-C---cCb--cBe------:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBaD--a----aa-----bbbb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:38.22% (G:10.25% B:1.11%)38.14% (G:10.22% B:1.22%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:61.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)61.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities-0.119-0.237
Cubeful Equities
played No double:-0.271±0.009 (-0.280..-0.261)
     Double/Take:-0.789 (-0.519)±0.017 (-0.807..-0.772)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.271)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 70582678
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 41 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] No Double
[ 5] Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

We are ahead in the race, but the good news ends there. Neil is well diversified in the outfield and 21, 22 and 23 leave an immediate shot by exposing another blot.

I order to double, we would have to be on the 23 point with our 4 checkers on the 4 point moved to our 3 point or 1 point and even then it would still be a take.

To use the Value Equation I would give us = Race 2 + Prime 0 + Blitz -3 + Contact -5 = -6. This would be a bad double.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: No Double

A good reference position to remember is when White (for example) has eight checker off and is closed out he is about 50/50 to win cubeless.

That assumes White’s remaining six checkers are on the ace and deuce with no gaps and no additional blots. It also assumes Black has a closed board with spares on his high points spread out.

What does that position have to do with the position in question today?

Well there are two dramatic differences in that ideal reference position which will alter the winning percentage of White.

The first on is in Black’s favor. Instead of having four on his ace-point and two on his two-point, he has two on his two-point and four on his four-point which is an extra twelve pips to bear off.

Now I don’t know exactly how those extra pips translate to extra shakes needed to bear off all of your checkers and how that impacts your winning percentage, but assuming perfect efficiency, twelve pips is one and a half rolls.

So I’m assuming with less than optimal efficiency that would be in the neighborhood of two additional shakes to bear off all of your checkers which will alter White’s winning percentage in a dramatic but yet undetermined fashion.

The second variable in determining White’s chances is the fact that Black has his deuce-point open with five checkers to bring around to board in an attempt to close White out.

Since Black doesn’t have any attackers in the vicinity of his home board, White can come in with a deuce and roll a big double (5-5) or (6-6) and potentially escape and win a gammon.

How often that happens is also a chore to determine.

What I’m getting at is that when you get to a position that varies from your typical reference position you’re going to have to do a lot of guess work when it comes to assessing how multiple variables impact the chance from the original reference position.

One thing I do not over the board, but after I get to such an unusual position is develop a four square of reference positions that all tie the position in question to a known reference position.

In this case, the two variables are the placement of White’s checkers from his four-point to his ace-point and the other variable to chance is the five loose blots for Black to close the board out and place his spare checkers in a decent place.

What will result is four positions that can be labeled A1, A2, B1, B2.


Position A1

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127

             
Unlimited Game
              pip: 45
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-aBaD–a—-aa—–bbbb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:39.28% (G:10.39% B:1.26%)39.36% (G:10.51% B:1.27%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:60.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)60.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities-0.098-0.190
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.197
Double/Take:-0.643 (-0.446)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.197)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Position A2

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57

             
Unlimited Game
              pip: 45
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=–B-D————–cccbbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:35.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)35.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:64.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)64.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities-0.293-0.584
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.501
Double/Take:-1.112 (-0.611)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.501)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Position B1

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124

             
Unlimited Game
              pip: 33
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-DBaa–a—-aa—–bbbb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:55.15% (G:12.79% B:0.86%)55.10% (G:12.69% B:0.86%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:44.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)44.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.240+0.475
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.302
Double/Take:+0.157 (-0.145)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.698)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Position B2

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57

             
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
              pip: 33
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-DB—————-cccbbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:49.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)49.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:50.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)50.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities-0.009-0.022
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.069
Double/Beaver:-0.793 (-0.724)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.069)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 28.8%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

A1 is the position in question and B2 is the known reference position.

“A” being White’s existing position and “B” being White’s position from the known “reference position”.

“1” being Blacks existing position and “2” being Black’s position from the known reference position.

So you will then have two new reference positions, A2 and B1.

“A2” will be White’s position from the game in question and Black having a closed board with spares in good spots.

“B1” will be White’s position from the known reference position and Black’s position from the game in question.

From there you will have more evidence to make an attempt to interpolate how the two variables interact with each other and you should have a better idea how to assess equity and how small (or in this case) large changes impact overall equity in the position.

Ideally I would rather have the independent variables not be so dramatically different from the original position, but if the existing position is that far from your known reference position you might be forced to take a leap of faith in your ability to make those mental changes from what you know to what you theorize.

Since in the best scenario for White (“B1”) he’s only 55%, you can infer that the original position can’t be a double.



USBGF Members: 44 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBaD--a----aa-----bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller++18/16 12/11eq: +0.192
Player:
Opponent:
60.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.75% (G:9.97% B:1.18%)
2.playedXG Roller++18/15eq: +0.191 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
60.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.74% (G:9.78% B:1.21%)
3.XG Roller++22/20 18/17eq: +0.191 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
60.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.59% (G:9.59% B:1.09%)
4.XG Roller++22/20 12/11eq: +0.187 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
60.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.66% (G:9.85% B:1.08%)
5.xgXG Roller++18/17 12/10eq: +0.182 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
60.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.94% (G:10.01% B:1.19%)
6.XG Roller++22/19eq: +0.181 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
59.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.05% (G:9.63% B:1.00%)
7.XG Roller++12/9eq: +0.177 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
60.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.95% (G:10.13% B:1.24%)
8.XG Roller++13/10eq: +0.173 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
59.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.04% (G:10.19% B:1.20%)
9.XG Roller++18/17 13/11eq: +0.166 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
59.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.29% (G:10.40% B:1.23%)
10.XG Roller++18/16 13/12eq: +0.157 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
59.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.43% (G:10.49% B:1.12%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/15.

My checkers are fine where they are on midpoints, and I want to keep both checkers back in my opponents’ board for now in case they enter poorly. After 18/15, my 44 can be used to hit them if the hop with 52 and my 61 can hit them if the hop with 62. This seems to give the best coverage.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 124
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBaD-----a-aa-----bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:44:0:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedXG Roller++22/10 15/11eq: +0.252
Player:
Opponent:
60.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.18% (G:6.88% B:0.73%)
2.xgXG Roller++22/14 15/11 12/8eq: +0.244 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
60.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.31% (G:7.38% B:0.87%)
3.XG Roller++22/14 15/11 13/9eq: +0.232 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
60.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.61% (G:7.17% B:0.70%)
4.XG Roller++22/10 12/8eq: +0.218 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
60.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.80% (G:7.63% B:0.84%)
5.XG Roller++22/18 15/11 13/9 12/8eq: +0.218 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
60.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.73% (G:7.94% B:0.90%)
6.XG Roller++22/6eq: +0.214 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
59.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.35% (G:7.49% B:0.79%)
7.XG Roller++22/14 15/7eq: +0.207 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
59.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.12% (G:8.20% B:0.97%)
8.XG Roller++22/10 13/9eq: +0.199 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
59.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.64% (G:7.57% B:0.77%)
9.XG Roller++22/14 13/9 12/8eq: +0.198 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
59.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.31% (G:7.96% B:0.93%)
10.XG Roller++22/14 13/5eq: +0.194 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
59.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.67% (G:7.85% B:0.79%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays .

I can’t reasonably keep both checkers back anymore. 22/10 15/11 gives me quadruple coverage if they hop and 4 builders for my 7 and 8 points.



USBGF Members: 31 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 108
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB-D-------aaaa---bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:11:0:0:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedXG Roller++12/8eq: +0.258
Player:
Opponent:
60.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.23% (G:6.69% B:0.72%)
2.XG Roller++11/8 10/9eq: +0.248 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
60.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.30% (G:7.14% B:0.84%)
3.XG Roller++10/6eq: +0.245 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
60.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.65% (G:6.90% B:0.71%)
4.XG Roller++13/9eq: +0.235 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
60.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.75% (G:6.89% B:0.68%)
5.XG Roller++13/12 11/8eq: +0.231 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
60.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.78% (G:6.91% B:0.65%)
6.XG Roller++13/11 10/8eq: +0.230 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
60.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.88% (G:7.20% B:0.70%)
7.XG Roller++11/7eq: +0.196 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
59.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.62% (G:7.87% B:0.96%)
8.XG Roller++12/9 11/10eq: +0.191 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
58.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.14% (G:7.10% B:0.66%)
9.XG Roller++12/9 10/9eq: +0.190 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
58.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.26% (G:7.06% B:0.62%)
10.XG Roller++13/12 10/7eq: +0.173 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
58.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.08% (G:8.10% B:0.83%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/8.

As my checkers continue to get pushed forward, I think I should try to make my 8 point. I’ll risk 12/8 noting that I have quite a few return shots if I get hit. This checker is also useful to hit on the 2 point.



USBGF Members: 41 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 104
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB-D-------a-aa-a-bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller++13/12 10/8eq: +0.297
Player:
Opponent:
61.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.54% (G:5.04% B:0.48%)
2.playedXG Roller++11/8eq: +0.288 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
61.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.54% (G:5.37% B:0.50%)
3.XG Roller++13/12 11/9eq: +0.242 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
60.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.66% (G:6.43% B:0.70%)
4.XG Roller++13/12 8/6eq: +0.227 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
59.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.36% (G:6.39% B:0.64%)
5.XG Roller++10/9 8/6eq: +0.224 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
59.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.31% (G:6.73% B:0.72%)
6.XG Roller++10/7eq: +0.222 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
60.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.87% (G:7.59% B:0.97%)
7.XG Roller++13/10eq: +0.213 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
59.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.54% (G:6.92% B:0.67%)
8.XG Roller++8/5eq: +0.207 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
59.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.78% (G:6.59% B:0.61%)
9.XG Roller++13/11 10/9eq: +0.204 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
59.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.60% (G:7.46% B:0.74%)
10.XG Roller++11/9 10/9eq: +0.196 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
58.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.01% (G:7.38% B:0.69%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/8.

10/8 covers the 8 point per plan, and then I don’t see much difference between the ones. 11/10 looks to my eye to be a tad more diversified than 13/12 so that is my ace. Both plays leave me 30 shots if they hop with 52 (assuming my counting is correct).



USBGF Members: 61 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB-D-------a--a-b-bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:41:0:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedXG Roller++13/12 10/6eq: +0.289
Player:
Opponent:
61.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.79% (G:4.76% B:0.45%)
2.XG Roller++10/5eq: +0.276 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
60.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.14% (G:4.62% B:0.39%)
3.XG Roller++13/8eq: +0.265 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
60.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.53% (G:4.74% B:0.39%)
4.XG Roller++13/9 10/9eq: +0.242 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
59.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.30% (G:4.74% B:0.40%)
5.XG Roller++13/9 8/7eq: +0.205 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
59.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.34% (G:7.44% B:0.87%)
6.XG Roller++13/12 8/4eq: +0.202 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
58.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.14% (G:5.91% B:0.57%)
7.XG Roller++10/6 8/7eq: +0.187 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
59.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.90% (G:7.52% B:0.88%)
8.XG Roller++10/9 8/4eq: +0.182 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
58.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.51% (G:6.51% B:0.77%)
9.XG Roller++8/3eq: +0.180 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
58.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.51% (G:6.63% B:0.76%)
10.XG Roller++24/19eq: +0.180 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
58.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.75% (G:5.34% B:0.42%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12 10/6.

Chance to pick up a 2nd blot are becoming less as I am forced to advance. But I still will hang back as a 21 entry or worse yet a 22 gives me a strong cube. 13/12 10/6 looks normal and diversified.



USBGF Members: 32 b/23 4/1*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
             
11 point match
              pip: 40
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aAB-C--------a---b-cbbbAb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:65.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)65.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:34.64% (G:6.80% B:0.52%)34.28% (G:6.77% B:0.49%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.232+0.481
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.348
     Double/Take:+0.271 (-0.078)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.652)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I think that the other blotting entries gave me a fine cube, but here as I cannot wait on the ace point for more chances to pick up the blot while attacking on my 2 point and noting that I may experience the horror of cubing and dancing, I clearly have no double.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
             
11 point match
              pip: 40
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aAB-C--------a---b-cbbbAb-:0:0:-1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 4/2*eq: -0.057
Player:
Opponent:
54.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.77% (G:15.02% B:1.35%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 12/10eq: -0.106 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
48.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.65% (G:7.91% B:0.35%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/22 6/4eq: -0.116 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
47.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
52.07% (G:8.51% B:0.47%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/20eq: -0.126 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
47.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
52.25% (G:8.27% B:0.40%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 4/2*.

I think it is time to let the fun start, since I will win almost every game where I can pick up a second checker. If I don’t hit, then they escape with 5’s and only blot with 32 and 11 and I am often forced to attack and take risks next turn.

Hitting will of course lose more gammons, but I think it brings an adequate number of extra wins to be worth the risk.



USBGF Members: 64 b/21*/15


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
             
11 point match
              pip: 32
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aABaC--------a-A-b-cb-bab-:0:0:-1:33:0:0:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays b/19 12/9 8/5.

Bar/19 12/9 8/5 gives me coverage and builders and diversification.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 32
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABaC-a--------Aaa-cc-bab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-01

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 59
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dBBDCC------a----abbab-b-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/4 5/Offeq: +1.287
Player:
Opponent:
81.73% (G:55.42% B:7.99%)
18.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.280...+1.295) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout15/Off 4/2eq: +1.245 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
80.38% (G:54.64% B:7.70%)
19.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.238...+1.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37534731
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 6/4 5/0
[12] 5/0 4/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 6/4 5/0

This one is fairly obvious to me. If your objective in bearing off against an ace-point game is to clear points, by stripping your six point you are preparing to meet that goal in doing that.

And as a bonus, by making the right play (5-off, 6-4) you leave fewer immediate shots in the process.

If you make the second best play (5-off, 4-2) you leave a shot on seven numbers your following roll (6-3, 5-4, 6-5 and 6-6), whereas if you strip the six-point you only leave a shot on four numbers (6-5) and (5-4).

Now it’s true that (6-5) leaves a double shot, but even if you count that double (which would be excessive), it would still be six shots against seven in favor of the “stripping play”.

So remember that when you can make a play that accomplishes something extra and does it at a lower risk, there is a very good chance that it is the correct move.



Neil Kazaross: 63 24/18 7/4
USBGF Members: 66 6/0(2) 5/0(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 140