USBGF OLM 2018-10-05

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-BBCAA-a-ba-bbe---AA-:1:-1:1:32:3:8:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/21 23/21eq: +0.490
Player:
Opponent:
66.86% (G:15.76% B:0.69%)
33.14% (G:6.48% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.485...+0.495) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 34 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 23/20eq: +0.352 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:
60.02% (G:17.34% B:1.14%)
39.98% (G:11.68% B:1.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.346...+0.358) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 8/6eq: +0.303 (-0.188)
Player:
Opponent:
57.58% (G:17.68% B:1.06%)
42.42% (G:12.05% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.297...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout123/21 9/6eq: +0.302 (-0.189)
Player:
Opponent:
57.43% (G:17.81% B:0.98%)
42.57% (G:11.25% B:1.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.296...+0.307) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 54 seconds
5.Rollout124/21 9/7eq: +0.285 (-0.205)
Player:
Opponent:
57.29% (G:16.75% B:0.94%)
42.71% (G:11.31% B:1.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.279...+0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 26 seconds
6.Rollout123/21 10/7eq: +0.277 (-0.213)
Player:
Opponent:
56.99% (G:16.82% B:0.90%)
43.01% (G:11.62% B:1.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.272...+0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 07 seconds
7.Rollout18/5 7/5eq: +0.266 (-0.225)
Player:
Opponent:
56.41% (G:16.98% B:0.96%)
43.59% (G:12.22% B:1.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.259...+0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 08 seconds
8.Rollout123/21 8/5eq: +0.265 (-0.225)
Player:
Opponent:
56.24% (G:18.04% B:1.23%)
43.76% (G:14.51% B:3.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.259...+0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
9.Rollout124/22 9/6eq: +0.262 (-0.229)
Player:
Opponent:
57.01% (G:15.28% B:0.74%)
42.99% (G:10.49% B:1.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.256...+0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 32 seconds
10.Rollout123/20 8/6eq: +0.258 (-0.232)
Player:
Opponent:
56.91% (G:16.24% B:0.91%)
43.09% (G:12.85% B:1.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.252...+0.264) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 15 seconds
11.Rollout124/21 10/8eq: +0.255 (-0.235)
Player:
Opponent:
56.57% (G:15.95% B:0.86%)
43.43% (G:11.83% B:1.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.249...+0.261) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 52 seconds
12.Rollout124/22 8/5eq: +0.251 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:
56.43% (G:16.78% B:0.96%)
43.57% (G:14.37% B:2.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.244...+0.258) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
13.Rollout123/20 9/7eq: +0.245 (-0.245)
Player:
Opponent:
56.28% (G:15.91% B:0.84%)
43.72% (G:12.47% B:1.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.240...+0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 51 seconds
14.Rollout124/22 10/7eq: +0.242 (-0.248)
Player:
Opponent:
56.59% (G:14.67% B:0.64%)
43.41% (G:11.04% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.237...+0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 43 seconds
15.Rollout110/7 8/6eq: +0.213 (-0.277)
Player:
Opponent:
54.96% (G:15.40% B:0.73%)
45.04% (G:11.65% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.208...+0.219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 28 seconds
16.Rollout123/20 10/8eq: +0.212 (-0.278)
Player:
Opponent:
54.95% (G:15.73% B:0.91%)
45.05% (G:12.97% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.206...+0.218) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 20 seconds
17.Rollout19/7 8/5eq: +0.200 (-0.290)
Player:
Opponent:
53.98% (G:16.54% B:1.06%)
46.02% (G:14.04% B:2.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.194...+0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 24 seconds
18.Rollout19/6 8/6eq: +0.179 (-0.312)
Player:
Opponent:
53.36% (G:15.58% B:0.73%)
46.64% (G:12.43% B:1.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.173...+0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 39 seconds
19.Rollout110/8 9/6eq: +0.164 (-0.326)
Player:
Opponent:
53.56% (G:14.01% B:0.56%)
46.44% (G:11.59% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.159...+0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 37 seconds
20.Rollout110/5eq: +0.159 (-0.332)
Player:
Opponent:
52.56% (G:15.92% B:0.98%)
47.44% (G:14.57% B:2.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.152...+0.165) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 42 seconds
21.Rollout110/7 9/7eq: +0.155 (-0.336)
Player:
Opponent:
53.27% (G:13.93% B:0.58%)
46.73% (G:12.24% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.149...+0.160) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77512623
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 24/21 23/21


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-BBCAA-a-ba-bbe-B----:1:-1:-1:64:3:8:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout113/7 10/6eq: -0.642
Player:
Opponent:
24.60% (G:4.24% B:0.30%)
75.40% (G:12.97% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.646...-0.637) - [100.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 6/2eq: -0.705 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
23.89% (G:4.04% B:0.53%)
76.11% (G:16.68% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.710...-0.700) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout113/3eq: -0.712 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
24.14% (G:4.00% B:0.32%)
75.86% (G:17.51% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.717...-0.707) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61770841
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 10/6.

I haven’t been able to accomplish much of anything for a while and now have to play 13/7 10/6 and hope for better rolls soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-BBCAA---b--bcf-B----:1:-1:1:11:3:8:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-B-CAA-cBa--bbe---AA-:1:-1:1:33:3:8:0:11:10
to play 33

1.xgRollout124/21 23/20 8/5(2)eq: +0.398
Player:
Opponent:
62.46% (G:17.15% B:0.78%)
37.54% (G:10.80% B:2.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.392...+0.404) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 8/5(3)eq: +0.377 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
61.91% (G:15.82% B:0.65%)
38.09% (G:8.28% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.372...+0.383) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout124/21 13/7 10/7eq: +0.364 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
61.36% (G:16.48% B:0.95%)
38.64% (G:10.72% B:1.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.359...+0.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
4.Rollout123/20 9/6 8/5(2)eq: +0.361 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
60.36% (G:17.40% B:0.78%)
39.64% (G:9.81% B:1.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.355...+0.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 24 seconds
5.Rollout124/21 9/6 8/5(2)eq: +0.355 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
60.74% (G:16.53% B:0.64%)
39.26% (G:9.74% B:1.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.349...+0.361) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 20 seconds
6.Rollout123/20 8/5(3)eq: +0.353 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
60.49% (G:16.46% B:0.76%)
39.51% (G:9.02% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.347...+0.358) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 54 seconds
7.Rollout123/20 13/7 10/7eq: +0.327 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
59.17% (G:17.68% B:0.98%)
40.83% (G:12.59% B:2.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.321...+0.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
8.Rollout124/21 23/20 13/10(2)eq: +0.315 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
59.46% (G:16.28% B:0.75%)
40.54% (G:11.48% B:1.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.309...+0.322) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
9.Rollout19/6 8/5(3)eq: +0.306 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
58.94% (G:15.14% B:0.63%)
41.06% (G:8.42% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.301...+0.311) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 34 seconds
10.Rollout110/4 8/5(2)eq: +0.306 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
57.79% (G:17.59% B:0.73%)
42.21% (G:10.50% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.300...+0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 10 seconds
11.Rollout123/20 13/10 8/5(2)eq: +0.305 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
58.27% (G:16.97% B:0.69%)
41.73% (G:11.38% B:2.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.299...+0.311) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 41 seconds
12.Rollout113/7 10/7 9/6eq: +0.298 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
59.07% (G:15.07% B:0.72%)
40.93% (G:10.90% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.293...+0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 22 seconds
13.playedRollout113/7(2)eq: +0.290 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
58.33% (G:16.07% B:0.69%)
41.67% (G:11.50% B:1.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.284...+0.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
14.Rollout124/21 13/10(2) 9/6eq: +0.288 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
58.62% (G:14.48% B:0.64%)
41.38% (G:9.84% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.282...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 38 seconds
15.Rollout110/7 8/5(3)eq: +0.287 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
57.67% (G:16.23% B:0.64%)
42.33% (G:10.11% B:1.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.281...+0.292) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77512623
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 13/7(2)
[ 8] 24/21 8/5(3)
[ 3] 24/21 13/7 10/7
[ 2] 23/20 13/7 10/7
[ 2] 9/6 8/5(3)
[ 1] 24/21 13/10(2) 9/6
[ 1] 13/7 10/7 9/6


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-BBCAA-c-a--bbe---AA-:1:-1:-1:32:3:8:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/11 13/10eq: -0.390
Player:
Opponent:
38.97% (G:10.06% B:1.68%)
61.03% (G:18.46% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.396...-0.384) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout113/8eq: -0.411 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
37.09% (G:9.50% B:1.59%)
62.91% (G:16.96% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.416...-0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77512623
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 13/10.

Taking a look at all the rolls I think it is best to risk 5 extra shots in an attempt to better be able to contain their back checkers if they roll poorly. Note that after 13/11 13/10 their hitting 54 and 53 rolls can also be used to make a full prime. I will win a few more games after the building play as compared to wimping 13/8 but also lose a few more gammons. However, my gammon cost, while higher than at a routine score, isn’t huge.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-BBCAA-a-ba-bbe---AA-:1:-1:1:32:3:8:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-B-CAA-cBa--bbe---AA-:0:0:1:00:3:8:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 61.14% (G:17.25% B:0.82%) 61.42% (G:17.09% B:0.77%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 38.86% (G:10.34% B:1.14%) 38.58% (G:10.74% B:1.63%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.269 +0.708
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.675±0.004 (+0.671..+0.679)
played Double/Take:+0.674 (-0.001)±0.005 (+0.669..+0.679)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.325)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.3%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96275865
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:60.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 hours 07 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Double
[ 6] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We need points, and we hit with 63 and 64. We have rolls to make our 7 or 5 points. Neil could end up in a 23 point anchor game. We are up in the race by 14 pips before the roll. I double.


Neil Kazaross to play:

Neil Kazaross takes.

I have a very easy take here as while my position is clearly inferior, I have plenty of chances to improve it. Their builders are threatening but not guaranteed to make new points. My anchor on the 23 point will cut down on my gammon losses.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-B-CAA-cBa--bbe---AA-:1:-1:1:33:3:8:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bB--C-CAB-cBb--c-e---AA-:0:0:1:62:3:8:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout110/4 6/4eq: +0.630
Player:
Opponent:
58.63% (G:18.72% B:0.92%)
41.37% (G:11.87% B:1.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.626...+0.635) - [85.5%]
Duration: 10 hours 01 minute
2.xgRollout113/7 9/7eq: +0.627 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
58.89% (G:18.10% B:0.97%)
41.11% (G:12.24% B:1.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.622...+0.631) - [14.5%]
Duration: 10 hours 16 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96275865
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 10/4 6/4
[ 6] 13/7 9/7
[ 1] 24/16


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 10/4 6/4

This is really tough. My instant response was to make the 7 point with 13/7 9/7. This duplicates 1’s and starts to block Neil in. But we are ahead in the race, so that also argues against priming.

However, we are 8 points away and could use a gammon so 10/4 6/4 has to be more Gammonish.

I am really torn here, but we really need Gammons so 10/4 6/4. It is also good to retain our midpoint, and if in doubt make a point.

Gus Hansen has asked his opponents which move they would prefer him to make when he cannot decide. He then makes the move they want. In the next live tournament, I should take a coin out and toss it to decide.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-B-CAA-cBb--c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:41:3:8:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout111/7 8/7eq: -0.669
Player:
Opponent:
38.57% (G:10.84% B:1.66%)
61.43% (G:17.08% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.680...-0.657) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.Rollout16/2* 2/1* eq: -0.809 (-0.140)
Player:
Opponent:
37.57% (G:11.17% B:1.55%)
62.43% (G:20.69% B:1.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.822...-0.795) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96275865
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/7 8/7.

Rather than panicking and hitting both checkers in an attempt to gain a tempo, it seems considerably better to just build my position. Making the bar point also leaves 7 fewer shots than the double hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-B-CAA-cBa--bbe---AA-:0:0:1:00:3:8:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-CA--dDa--c-e---AA-:0:0:1:33:3:8:0:11:10
to play 33

1.xgRollout18/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.493
Player:
Opponent:
54.86% (G:19.82% B:0.79%)
45.14% (G:13.06% B:1.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.489...+0.498) - [99.7%]
Duration: 12 hours 02 minutes
2.playedRollout113/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.484 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
55.41% (G:18.01% B:0.82%)
44.59% (G:13.25% B:1.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.479...+0.489) - [0.3%]
Duration: 13 hours 54 minutes
3.Rollout213/10 8/5(3)eq: +0.385 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
52.20% (G:18.46% B:0.72%)
47.80% (G:14.05% B:1.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.375...+0.396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
4.Rollout213/10 9/3 6/3eq: +0.374 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
52.96% (G:16.71% B:0.68%)
47.04% (G:13.45% B:1.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.363...+0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
5.Rollout28/5(2) 8/2* eq: +0.368 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
51.79% (G:18.21% B:0.81%)
48.21% (G:15.52% B:2.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.357...+0.379) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
6.Rollout224/21 9/3 6/3eq: +0.365 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:
53.54% (G:15.25% B:0.60%)
46.46% (G:12.97% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.355...+0.376) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
7.Rollout28/2*(2) eq: +0.362 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
51.50% (G:18.22% B:0.80%)
48.50% (G:14.39% B:1.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.351...+0.372) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
8.Rollout224/21 13/10 6/3(2)eq: +0.360 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:
52.94% (G:15.77% B:0.70%)
47.06% (G:13.54% B:1.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.349...+0.371) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
9.Rollout223/20 8/5(3)eq: +0.359 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
52.16% (G:17.51% B:0.71%)
47.84% (G:14.69% B:1.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.347...+0.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
10.Rollout223/20 9/3 6/3eq: +0.358 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
53.20% (G:15.59% B:0.71%)
46.80% (G:14.18% B:1.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.347...+0.368) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
11.Rollout223/20 13/10 6/3(2)eq: +0.345 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:
52.30% (G:16.56% B:0.82%)
47.70% (G:14.82% B:1.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.334...+0.355) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
12.Rollout213/7(2)eq: +0.343 (-0.150)
Player:
Opponent:
52.51% (G:16.18% B:0.78%)
47.49% (G:14.79% B:1.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.332...+0.355) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19436754
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19436754
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 13/10(2) 6/3(2)
[ 9] 8/5(2) 6/3(2)
[ 4] 13/7(2)
[ 2] 13/10(2) 8/5(2)
[ 2] 13/10 9/3 6/3
[ 1] 24/21 9/3 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5(2) 6/3(2)

We obviously have to play 6/3(2) then decide on how to play the remaining two 3’s.

For money, we should play 8/5(2) giving us a great board. This puts Neil under the most pressure. It duplicates 61, 63 and 64 which are already good for Neil.

Stick once wrote ‘if in doubt, make the 5 point. When it is right, it will be right by a lot, when it is wrong it will be wrong by only a little.’

So if that’s what we should do for money, so here trailing in the match, at a multiple of 4 away from winning, we should definitely make the 5 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB--C-CAB-dBa--c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:21:3:8:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.707
Player:
Opponent:
38.57% (G:10.56% B:1.49%)
61.43% (G:18.08% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.719...-0.695) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.824 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
39.88% (G:10.82% B:1.58%)
60.12% (G:24.49% B:1.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.837...-0.812) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 11/9eq: -0.840 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:
35.36% (G:9.02% B:1.47%)
64.64% (G:18.01% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.852...-0.828) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
4.Rollout111/8eq: -0.917 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:
36.86% (G:10.07% B:1.50%)
63.14% (G:23.62% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.929...-0.905) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96275865
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 13/11.

My 2 played from 13/11 makes a hopefully useful point, and then my ace must be 24/23 anchoring to prevent their builders from blitzing me.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bB--C-CAB-cBb--c-e---AA-:0:0:1:62:3:8:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-BBCb--B--Ba--c-bcbb--A:0:0:-1:00:3:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.62% (G:22.87% B:0.38%) 76.92% (G:20.97% B:0.80%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.38% (G:4.37% B:0.11%) 23.08% (G:4.43% B:0.19%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.775 +1.693
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.932 (-0.068)±0.008 (+0.925..+0.940)
     Double/Take:+1.298 (+0.298)±0.013 (+1.286..+1.311)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19436754
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 52 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] Pass
[10] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Pass

Oops, we are on the bar against a 4 point board. Some of our entering numbers 61, 51 and 31 either leave us with an inner board blot (so Neil can easily attack) or leave a direct shot.

Also a gammon wins the match exactly for Neil. We should let this go. That was my gut instinct and nothing about this position makes me want to do anything else.

Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

I have a big advantage here but I don’t think I am too good, noting that their 4 point board can provide counter play if I get hit. I’d be too good if my back checkers were somewhat closer to home.

This is a big pass and I can win quite a few match ending gammons if they take.


Neil Kazaross wins one point and leads 3-away/8-away.



USBGF Members: 41 24/23 13/9
Neil Kazaross: 21 24/23 13/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-CA--dDa--c-e---AA-:0:0:1:33:3:8:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C--BCbB---bBBa-a-cbbbA--:0:0:1:44:3:7:0:11:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout113/9(2) 8/4(2)eq: -0.533
Player:
Opponent:
34.50% (G:9.86% B:0.24%)
65.50% (G:17.84% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.543...-0.523) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 29 seconds
2.playedRollout114/10(2) 8/4(2)eq: -0.601 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
32.78% (G:8.90% B:0.23%)
67.22% (G:18.67% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.610...-0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout113/5(2)eq: -0.775 (-0.242)
Player:
Opponent:
29.06% (G:7.38% B:0.26%)
70.94% (G:19.15% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.789...-0.761) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 57 seconds
4.Rollout114/10(2) 13/9(2)eq: -0.790 (-0.257)
Player:
Opponent:
28.77% (G:6.12% B:0.20%)
71.23% (G:14.53% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.804...-0.776) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20707185
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 14/10(2) 8/4(2)
[ 7] 13/9(2) 8/4(2)
[ 1] 14/10(2) 13/9(2)
[ 1] 13/5(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 14/10(2) 8/4(2)

With this roll, we are now 11 pips ahead in the race after the roll. So we should play 2 checkers 14/10(2).

Next we should improve our board to a 4 point board with 8/4(2). If Neil hits loose, we want to have a board with bite — a board that would either discourage Neil from hitting or if he does hit, makes our return hits more deadly.



Neil Kazaross: 21 10/8 6/5
USBGF Members: 54 23/14


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 119
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 102
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-BBCb--B-bBA--b-bcbb---:0:0:-1:52:3:7:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11* 13/8.

They have a 4 point board so, I don’t want to leave any return shots unless I see a major gain from doing so.



USBGF Members: 63 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-BBCb--B--Ba--c-bcbb--A:0:0:-1:00:3:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-09-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 132
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--BDbB---bBBb-a-db-b-A-:0:0:1:41:3:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout18/4 6/5eq: -0.462
Player:
Opponent:
37.54% (G:10.42% B:0.42%)
62.46% (G:22.07% B:1.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.473...-0.450) - [99.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2.Rollout114/13 14/10eq: -0.486 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
36.39% (G:8.40% B:0.31%)
63.61% (G:16.42% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.496...-0.476) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
3.Rollout16/1eq: -0.490 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
37.15% (G:8.15% B:0.21%)
62.85% (G:20.21% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.503...-0.477) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
4.playedRollout124/23 6/2eq: -0.514 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
37.26% (G:7.42% B:0.32%)
62.74% (G:21.66% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.525...-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20707185
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 24/23 6/2
[8] 6/1
[8] 14/13 14/10
[1] 13/8
[1] 8/4 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4 6/5

We are very close in the race but I want to avoid any play that involves 24/23 because if Neil makes his 8 point, the new are blocked 6 pips away.

Initially I really liked 14/13 14/10 but the 14 point makes it harder for Neil to get by us and gives us another point to run to with our back checker.

Our boards are roughly the same strength so I think I like 8/4 6/5, preparing to improve our board and if Neil hits us we should have return shots.

I am unsure about this move but if the clock was ticking, I would make this move.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C--BCbB---bBBb-a-db-bA--:0:0:-1:62:3:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout110/4 6/4eq: +0.396
Player:
Opponent:
59.44% (G:22.11% B:0.82%)
40.56% (G:9.10% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.385...+0.408) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout110/8 10/4eq: +0.266 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:
57.43% (G:18.83% B:0.75%)
42.57% (G:9.29% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.256...+0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
3.Rollout110/2* eq: +0.202 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent:
56.59% (G:21.90% B:1.12%)
43.41% (G:14.45% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.188...+0.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19436754
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4 6/4.

I have to blot no matter what. If I hit 8/2*, I have nothing resembling a good 2. Therefore, I play 10/4, and then making my 4 point looks stronger than making my 8 pt. I leave 15 shots, but they will be in serious trouble after the 16 small rolls that keep them under much pressure on my 2 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C--BCbB---bBBa-a-cbbbA--:0:0:1:44:3:7:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 142
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B---DbB---dDB--c-d--b-A-:0:0:1:44:3:7:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout113/5(2)eq: +0.087
Player:
Opponent:
51.09% (G:10.26% B:0.25%)
48.91% (G:9.29% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.077...+0.098) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
2.Rollout113/9(2) 8/4(2)eq: +0.048 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
50.33% (G:9.90% B:0.26%)
49.67% (G:9.72% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.036...+0.059) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
3.Rollout114/10(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.039 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
50.16% (G:9.10% B:0.30%)
49.84% (G:9.36% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.029...+0.050) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
4.Rollout124/16 13/9(2)eq: +0.026 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
51.09% (G:4.58% B:0.16%)
48.91% (G:7.62% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.016...+0.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
5.Rollout113/9(4)eq: +0.014 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
49.65% (G:8.61% B:0.20%)
50.35% (G:8.15% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.004...+0.025) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
6.Rollout113/5 8/4(2)eq: +0.011 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
48.99% (G:11.52% B:0.28%)
51.01% (G:10.47% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (0.000...+0.023) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
7.Rollout124/16 14/10(2)eq: -0.001 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
50.66% (G:3.59% B:0.14%)
49.34% (G:6.94% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.010...+0.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
8.Rollout114/10(2) 13/5eq: -0.004 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
48.98% (G:9.48% B:0.29%)
51.02% (G:9.53% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.015...+0.006) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
9.Rollout114/10(2) 8/4(2)eq: -0.008 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
48.89% (G:9.00% B:0.24%)
51.11% (G:9.64% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.018...+0.003) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20707185
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 13/5(2)
[ 9] 24/16 13/9(2)
[ 7] 24/16 14/10(2)
[ 4] 14/10(2) 13/9(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/5(2)

For money, the best play is 13/5(2), improving our board. Then, I would hope that Neil leaves a direct shot with 63, 62, 54, or 51. He would leave an indirect with 53 and his 21 is safe but awkward with 6/3.

Here at 8 away 4 away, we have even more incentive to play aggressively so 13/5(2) is my recommendation.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 142
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 132
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--BDbB---dBB--c-d--b-A-:0:0:-1:33:3:7:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.234
Player:
Opponent:
56.55% (G:15.44% B:0.73%)
43.45% (G:9.29% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.223...+0.246) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
2.Rollout118/15(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.206 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
55.72% (G:7.21% B:0.28%)
44.28% (G:7.00% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.195...+0.217) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 8/5(3)eq: +0.197 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
55.51% (G:14.13% B:0.61%)
44.49% (G:8.66% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.186...+0.208) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
4.Rollout113/7(2)eq: +0.182 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
55.36% (G:10.72% B:0.39%)
44.64% (G:7.12% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.171...+0.194) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20707185
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10(2) 8/5(2).

Two plays here: Either I make the bar point and leave no shots, or risk 4 shots and make my 5 and 10 points. My potential to improve from making my 5 and 10 points seems worth the shots, and their hitting 61 plays OK anyhow. This more aggressive play should garner me more gammons and it is no disaster to be hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 132
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--BDbB---bBBb-a-db-b-A-:0:0:1:41:3:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 172
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=------DbD---dD---d-eB---A-:0:0:1:66:3:7:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout120/14(2) 8/2(2)eq: -0.081
Player:
Opponent:
46.88% (G:8.31% B:0.31%)
53.12% (G:11.35% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.093...-0.070) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
2.Rollout120/2 8/2eq: -0.166 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
44.49% (G:9.56% B:0.27%)
55.51% (G:13.15% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.177...-0.155) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
3.Rollout120/8(2)eq: -0.175 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
45.09% (G:6.67% B:0.24%)
54.91% (G:10.96% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.185...-0.165) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
4.Rollout124/18 20/14(2) 8/2eq: -0.260 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:
42.99% (G:4.74% B:0.18%)
57.01% (G:10.94% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.270...-0.249) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20707185
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 20/14(2) 8/2(2)
[ 6] 24/18 20/14(2) 8/2
[ 4] 20/8(2)
[ 1] 20/2 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 20/14(2) 8/2(2)

After this roll we will only be ahead by 2 pips, which means we are slightly behind. Therefore, we should keep maximize our contact and make a blocking point by playing 20/14(2) 8/2(2).



Neil Kazaross: 53 8/3 6/3


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 142
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B---DbB---dDB--c-d--b-A-:0:0:1:44:3:7:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 37
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 44
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABCC------------acbba--:0:0:-1:00:3:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 80.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 80.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 19.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 20.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.601 +1.188
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.839 (-0.161)±0.001 (+0.837..+0.840)
     Double/Take:+1.064 (+0.064)±0.002 (+1.061..+1.066)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64321160
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 32.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] Pass
[ 4] Take


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

Now we have the same number of checkers off and I lead by 7 pips and have no real defects in bearoff structure.


Neil Kazaross wins one point and leads 4-away/8-away.



Neil Kazaross: 54 24/20 13/8
USBGF Members: 51 13/8 6/5*
Neil Kazaross: 51 b/20* 24/23
USBGF Members: 54 b/20 24/20
Neil Kazaross: 52 23/18 20/18


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 172
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=------DbD---dD---d-eB---A-:0:0:1:66:3:7:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 44
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABADC------------bcbbaa-:0:0:1:21:3:6:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout15/4 2/Offeq: -0.574
Player:
Opponent:
30.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.576...-0.572) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout13/Offeq: -0.590 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
30.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.593...-0.588) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64321160
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 5/4 2/0
[ 8] 3/0
[ 1] 6/4 5/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 5/4 2/0

I recommend playing 2/0, then we should to balance the number of checkers on the 4, 5 and 6 points, so 5/4.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 44
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 47
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCC------------bcbbaa-:0:0:-1:00:3:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 30.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.384 +0.757
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.576±0.002 (+0.573..+0.578)
     Double/Take:+0.534 (-0.042)±0.003 (+0.531..+0.537)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.424)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64321160
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I’m ahead 3 pips in a medium length bearoff so I should be close to a cube except for two things. 1) My extra checker. 2) My lead in the match.

I just can’t win this game often enough to justify cubing.



Neil Kazaross: 61 6/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 21 3/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 37
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 44
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABCC------------acbba--:0:0:-1:00:3:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-09-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 58
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 64
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABCDD------------ccccb--:0:0:1:31:3:6:0:11:10
to play 31

1.Rollout15/4 3/Offeq: -0.404
Player:
Opponent:
35.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
64.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.406...-0.403) - [99.6%]
Duration: 50 minutes 02 seconds
2.playedRollout14/Offeq: -0.407 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
35.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
64.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.408...-0.405) - [0.4%]
Duration: 48 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout23/Off 2/1eq: -0.413 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
35.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
64.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.416...-0.411) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout26/5 3/Offeq: -0.416 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
35.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
64.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.419...-0.414) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64321160
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64321160
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 4/0
[ 4] 5/4 3/0
[ 2] 6/5 3/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 3/0 2/1

We should play 3/0 2/1 which gives us a good 2 next roll as it covers the gap on our 2 point.



Neil Kazaross: 61 6/0 2/1
USBGF Members: 64 6/0 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 43 4/0 3/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 44
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABADC------------bcbbaa-:0:0:1:21:3:6:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 62
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBED---------a--bcccba-:0:0:1:21:3:6:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout15/4 2/Offeq: -0.333
Player:
Opponent:
38.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
61.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.335...-0.330) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout13/Offeq: -0.364 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
37.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.367...-0.361) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds
3.Rollout12/1 2/Offeq: -0.365 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
37.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.367...-0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64321160
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 5/4 2/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 5/4 2/0

If in doubt, take them off! So 2/Off, then 5/4 trying to even up the checkers on the 4, 5 and 6 points.



Neil Kazaross: 31 9/6 1/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 58
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 64
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABCDD------------ccccb--:0:0:1:31:3:6:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 65
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBEC--A------aa-bbccba-:0:0:1:21:3:6:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout19/6eq: -0.333
Player:
Opponent:
38.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
61.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.336...-0.330) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout19/7 5/4eq: -0.346 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
37.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.349...-0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 21 seconds
3.Rollout15/4 3/1eq: -0.351 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
37.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.354...-0.349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout19/7 2/1eq: -0.370 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
37.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.373...-0.368) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64321160
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 9/6
[ 8] 9/7 5/4
[ 2] 9/7 2/1
[ 1] 5/4 5/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/6

We should just play 9/6 here. If there was a gap on our 4 point then the play would be 9/7 5/4.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 65
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBED---------aa-bbccba-:0:0:-1:21:3:6:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout18/5eq: -0.045
Player:
Opponent:
48.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.046...-0.044) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
2.Rollout19/6eq: -0.050 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
48.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.051...-0.049) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64321160
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5.

8/5 looks to be a bit better than 9/6 in that it is less likely to run into issues with missing 5’s later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 62
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBED---------a--bcccba-:0:0:1:21:3:6:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 82
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBB-A----Aabb-c-bbba-:0:0:1:51:3:6:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout19/4 7/6eq: +0.171
Player:
Opponent:
54.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.168...+0.174) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 48 seconds
2.playedRollout114/9 7/6eq: +0.164 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
54.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.161...+0.167) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout17/6 7/2eq: +0.133 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
53.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.130...+0.136) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 28 seconds
4.Rollout19/4 2/1eq: +0.129 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
53.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.127...+0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 25 seconds
5.Rollout114/8eq: +0.128 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
53.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.125...+0.131) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 14/9 7/6
[ 9] 9/4 7/6
[ 2] 14/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

We have to play 7/6 to get the crossover. 14/9 puts a second checker on the 9 point which is not very flexible so we should play 9/4. If we had a 4 to play instead of a 5, 14/10 looks best as it is diversified and more flexible. It will probably be close.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCCA-B-----abb-c-bbba-:0:0:-1:64:3:6:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout110/4 9/5eq: -0.039
Player:
Opponent:
49.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
50.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.042...-0.036) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout19/5 9/3eq: -0.056 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
48.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.059...-0.054) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 54 seconds
3.Rollout19/5 8/2eq: -0.064 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
48.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.067...-0.061) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64321160
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4 9/5.

9/5 is a must to fill my gapped 5 point and then 10/4 has to be the best 6, not yet going too deep into my board.



USBGF Members: 42 9/5 7/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 71
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBEC--A------ab-cacbba-:0:0:-1:51:3:6:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout19/4 6/5eq: -0.065
Player:
Opponent:
48.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.066...-0.063) - [62.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.playedRollout18/3 6/5eq: -0.065 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
48.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.066...-0.064) - [37.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64321160
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/5.

My ace should go 6/5 trying to mend the weakness on my 5 point. Then I slightly prefer to diversify a bit with 8/3.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 65
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBEC--A------aa-bbccba-:0:0:1:21:3:6:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBAA---A--bcb-cAb-c--:0:0:1:11:3:6:0:11:10
to play 11

1.Rollout112/9 7/6eq: -0.386
Player:
Opponent:
36.79% (G:2.10% B:0.03%)
63.21% (G:1.35% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.389...-0.384) - [59.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
2.Rollout18/5 7/6eq: -0.387 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
36.81% (G:2.11% B:0.04%)
63.19% (G:1.43% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.390...-0.385) - [19.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
3.Rollout112/11 8/6 5/4eq: -0.388 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
36.87% (G:2.14% B:0.04%)
63.13% (G:1.51% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.391...-0.386) - [7.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
4.Rollout112/11 8/6 7/6eq: -0.388 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
36.74% (G:2.13% B:0.04%)
63.26% (G:1.32% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.391...-0.386) - [6.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
5.Rollout112/10 8/6eq: -0.388 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
36.84% (G:2.17% B:0.04%)
63.16% (G:1.41% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.391...-0.386) - [4.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
6.Rollout18/6 7/6 5/4eq: -0.389 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
36.65% (G:2.04% B:0.04%)
63.35% (G:1.45% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.392...-0.387) - [1.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
7.Rollout112/10 7/6 5/4eq: -0.389 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
36.76% (G:2.07% B:0.04%)
63.24% (G:1.44% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.392...-0.387) - [1.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
8.playedRollout112/9 8/7eq: -0.390 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
36.86% (G:2.21% B:0.04%)
63.14% (G:1.47% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.393...-0.388) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
9.Rollout18/4eq: -0.391 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
36.78% (G:2.14% B:0.04%)
63.22% (G:1.62% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.393...-0.388) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
10.Rollout112/11 7/4eq: -0.392 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
36.69% (G:2.06% B:0.04%)
63.31% (G:1.56% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.394...-0.389) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
11.Rollout112/10 8/7 5/4eq: -0.392 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
36.78% (G:2.16% B:0.04%)
63.22% (G:1.55% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.395...-0.390) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
12.Rollout212/10 7/5eq: -0.397 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
36.58% (G:2.06% B:0.03%)
63.42% (G:1.55% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.403...-0.391) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 34 seconds
13.Rollout212/11 8/5eq: -0.398 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
36.56% (G:2.13% B:0.04%)
63.44% (G:1.64% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.405...-0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 20 seconds
14.Rollout212/9 5/4eq: -0.399 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
36.46% (G:2.19% B:0.04%)
63.54% (G:1.67% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.406...-0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds
15.Rollout212/8eq: -0.400 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
36.33% (G:2.12% B:0.03%)
63.67% (G:1.59% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.406...-0.394) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 11 seconds
16.Rollout27/3eq: -0.405 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
36.31% (G:2.05% B:0.04%)
63.69% (G:1.75% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.411...-0.399) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 27 seconds
17.Rollout212/11 7/6 5/3eq: -0.406 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
36.32% (G:2.08% B:0.04%)
63.68% (G:1.62% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.413...-0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 41 seconds
18.Rollout27/4 5/4eq: -0.406 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
36.26% (G:1.96% B:0.04%)
63.74% (G:1.78% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.413...-0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 42 seconds
19.Rollout28/6 5/3eq: -0.409 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
36.28% (G:2.10% B:0.04%)
63.72% (G:1.72% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.415...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 00 second
20.Rollout212/10 5/3eq: -0.409 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
36.23% (G:2.06% B:0.03%)
63.77% (G:1.74% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.415...-0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 24 seconds
21.Rollout212/11 8/7 5/3eq: -0.409 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
36.27% (G:2.04% B:0.03%)
63.73% (G:1.81% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.416...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 22 seconds
22.Rollout25/1eq: -0.410 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
36.28% (G:2.33% B:0.04%)
63.72% (G:2.22% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.417...-0.404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 00 second
23.Rollout27/6 5/2eq: -0.411 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
36.07% (G:2.12% B:0.04%)
63.93% (G:1.84% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.417...-0.404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 59 seconds
24.Rollout28/7 5/2eq: -0.414 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
36.07% (G:2.01% B:0.04%)
63.93% (G:1.94% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.420...-0.408) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 12/9 8/7
[ 8] 12/11 8/6 7/6
[ 1] 12/9 7/6
[ 1] 12/10 8/6
[ 1] 12/11 8/6 5/4
[ 1] 8/7 5/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 12/11 8/6 7/6

After the roll we will be ahead by 12 pips, so we should be trying for a racing game plan. This means we should get 2 checkers into our home board with 8/6 7/6.

For the final 1, playing 12/11 means we get another checker in with a 5 or 6.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBB-A-----bcb-cAb-c--:0:0:-1:61:3:6:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout19/3 4/3eq: +0.009
Player:
Opponent:
51.29% (G:0.95% B:0.01%)
48.71% (G:4.31% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.003...+0.016) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout19/2eq: -0.045 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
48.49% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
51.51% (G:1.72% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.052...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout19/3 2/1eq: -0.101 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
47.73% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
52.27% (G:4.19% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.107...-0.094) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 00 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/3 4/3.

I still want to try to contain their back checker so I keep my semblance of a blockade. Therefore, I’ll play 9/3 and find an ace. The most flexible and best ace for the bearoff is 4/3.



USBGF Members: 42 20/14


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 88
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 82
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBB-A----Abbb-c-abc--:0:0:-1:61:3:6:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout110/4 2/1eq: -0.306
Player:
Opponent:
40.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.307...-0.305) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 8/7eq: -0.310 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
40.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.311...-0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout110/4 6/5eq: -0.310 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
40.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.311...-0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4 2/1.

10/4 is basically forced so let’s look at my aces. I think 2/1 is slightly best, putting that dilly builder on a new point. Since my checkers that are beyond my open 5 point are all well placed to get there, I can play 2/1.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 82
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBB-A----Aabb-c-bbba-:0:0:1:51:3:6:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBAC-----cb-b-cAc-bA-:0:0:1:66:3:6:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout124/12 8/2(2)eq: -0.289
Player:
Opponent:
39.50% (G:3.37% B:0.05%)
60.50% (G:2.17% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.295...-0.283) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout124/6 8/2eq: -0.313 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
38.83% (G:5.46% B:0.10%)
61.17% (G:2.74% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.319...-0.307) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 12 seconds
3.Rollout124/6 7/1eq: -0.365 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
36.46% (G:9.47% B:0.21%)
63.54% (G:4.29% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.371...-0.360) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 53 seconds
4.Rollout124/12 8/2 7/1eq: -0.381 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
36.62% (G:9.37% B:0.14%)
63.38% (G:5.90% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.387...-0.374) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 24/12 8/2(2)
[ 9] 24/6 8/2
[ 2] 8/2(3) 7/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/12 8/2(2)

Before the roll we were behind 13 pips in the race, after the roll we will be ahead by 11 pips. Running is now a viable game plan so let’s get our back checker out of dodge by playing 24/12.

Our checker on the 20 point is still in danger and Neil will hit us if he gets a chance. We want to make any of our return hits as fatal as possible, so let’s improve our board by playing 8/2(2). Then we will have a killer 5 point board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBAA---A-cb-b-cAc-b--:0:0:-1:22:3:6:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout111/9(3) 4/2eq: -0.071
Player:
Opponent:
48.36% (G:0.85% B:0.01%)
51.64% (G:1.83% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.077...-0.065) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 52 seconds
2.Rollout111/9(3) 6/4eq: -0.133 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
46.53% (G:0.65% B:0.01%)
53.47% (G:1.46% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.139...-0.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/9(3) 4/2.

I can’t afford to hit loose since after continuing on to my 3 point, I leave 13 slightly gammonish shots. Also, this play is not decisive if it works since they can enter and still run away later. So I have play 11/9(3) and then 4/2 looks best keeping a builder.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBAA---A--bcb-cAb-c--:0:0:1:11:3:6:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCB-C----Acb-c-e---bAA:0:0:1:65:3:6:0:11:10
to play 65

1.xgRollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.593
Player:
Opponent:
32.39% (G:5.23% B:0.11%)
67.61% (G:10.17% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.596...-0.590) - [75.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 47 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.595 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
32.27% (G:4.55% B:0.08%)
67.73% (G:9.06% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.598...-0.591) - [25.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 38 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/20 13/7
[10] b/20 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20 8/2

In this type of position, the default is to slot the next point in our inner board with 8/2. We will have a board with no high gaps if we make the 2 point so this looks good for me.

13/7 will probably be close or maybe even better, certainly I would let my partners in a chouette do whichever move they wanted as it should be a close call.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBAC-----cb-c-eA--bA-:0:0:-1:00:3:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.70% (G:9.01% B:0.16%) 67.98% (G:9.37% B:0.09%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.30% (G:4.57% B:0.10%) 32.02% (G:4.80% B:0.07%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.398 +0.793
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.598±0.008 (+0.590..+0.606)
     Double/Take:+0.473 (-0.126)±0.012 (+0.460..+0.485)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.402)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I might have a cube for money, but with this lead in the match I will be cautious and hold off. I can lose quickly by getting hit, or later by losing race, or even to a 20 point holding game if they make that anchor.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBAC-----cb-c-eA--bA-:0:0:-1:22:3:6:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4(2)eq: +0.656
Player:
Opponent:
68.97% (G:6.23% B:0.19%)
31.03% (G:2.22% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.646...+0.666) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout110/8(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.544 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
66.96% (G:3.47% B:0.07%)
33.04% (G:1.74% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.536...+0.552) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/4(2).

8/4 6/4(2) makes a useful point and keeps my blocking points which are also threatening builders if they don’t anchor.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBAC-----cb-b-cAc-bA-:0:0:1:66:3:6:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BCB-C----Ccb-d-f---AA-:0:0:1:55:3:6:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout123/18 13/3 8/3eq: -0.355
Player:
Opponent:
38.27% (G:7.02% B:0.18%)
61.73% (G:6.28% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.363...-0.346) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout123/18 8/3(3)eq: -0.378 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
37.44% (G:6.86% B:0.13%)
62.56% (G:6.52% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.387...-0.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
3.playedRollout113/3(2)eq: -0.411 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
36.84% (G:6.16% B:0.12%)
63.16% (G:6.59% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.420...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
4.Rollout123/18 13/8 13/3eq: -0.419 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
36.35% (G:5.85% B:0.16%)
63.65% (G:7.24% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.428...-0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 13/3(2)
[11] 23/18 13/3 8/3
[ 7] 23/13 8/3(2)
[ 1] 23/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/18 13/3 8/3

After the roll we will still be 4 pips behind in the race with Neil on roll. Therefore, we are not aiming for a racing game plan. So we should play a checker to Neil’s bar point by playing 23/18. This makes it harder for Neil to make inner points with rolls like 51, 62 and 65 as now we will have a direct shot. This is the classic ‘distraction’ play. This encourages an exchange of hits, so we need to improve our board by making our 3 point. If we make it with 8/3(3) we create a dilly builder and give up the 8 point so instead let’s play 13/3 8/3. We make the 3 point and retain the 8 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCB-C----Acb-d-f---AA-:0:0:-1:00:3:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.39% (G:6.62% B:0.18%) 63.51% (G:6.86% B:0.24%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.61% (G:6.09% B:0.14%) 36.49% (G:6.23% B:0.19%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.273 +0.525
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.419±0.008 (+0.410..+0.427)
     Double/Take:+0.119 (-0.300)±0.013 (+0.106..+0.132)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.581)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 25.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I wouldn’t consider cubing this for money so it must be a huge blunder at this score, where I can face a 4 cube if I roll poorly. I simply can’t win this game often enough to cube yet and need to make a good point and then reconsider.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCB-C----Acb-d-f---AA-:0:0:-1:64:3:6:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout18/2* 6/2eq: +0.599
Player:
Opponent:
67.58% (G:7.91% B:0.19%)
32.42% (G:4.15% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.591...+0.608) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 8/4eq: +0.284 (-0.316)
Player:
Opponent:
59.47% (G:6.26% B:0.19%)
40.53% (G:7.31% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.276...+0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2* 6/2.

I’ve often said, that when you really don’t want to be hit, leave fewer or better yet no shots. Therefore, I make the 2 point which also puts one of my 6 checkers on the 6 point to work. This leaves no blots and safely retains spares to make other points.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCB-C----Acb-c-e---bAA:0:0:1:56:3:6:0:11:10
to play 56

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABC-D---bCba-d-f---AA-:0:0:1:32:3:6:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout123/20 6/4eq: -0.493
Player:
Opponent:
34.80% (G:7.59% B:0.28%)
65.20% (G:13.54% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.498...-0.489) - [93.7%]
Duration: 9 hours 44 minutes
2.playedRollout18/5 6/4eq: -0.498 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
34.51% (G:7.35% B:0.23%)
65.49% (G:12.09% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.502...-0.494) - [6.3%]
Duration: 9 hours 21 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 6/4eq: -0.503 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
34.46% (G:7.05% B:0.24%)
65.54% (G:12.38% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.507...-0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 11 minutes
4.Rollout223/21 13/10eq: -0.519 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
34.05% (G:7.38% B:0.29%)
65.95% (G:13.65% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.529...-0.509) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
5.Rollout223/21 8/5eq: -0.531 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
33.77% (G:7.29% B:0.24%)
66.23% (G:13.75% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.540...-0.521) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
6.Rollout224/21 6/4eq: -0.547 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
33.56% (G:6.45% B:0.20%)
66.44% (G:11.99% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.557...-0.538) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
7.Rollout213/11 8/5eq: -0.580 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
32.50% (G:6.74% B:0.22%)
67.50% (G:13.92% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.589...-0.570) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
8.Rollout223/21 6/3eq: -0.586 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
32.82% (G:6.73% B:0.22%)
67.18% (G:14.90% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.595...-0.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
9.Rollout213/10 8/6eq: -0.588 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
32.38% (G:6.62% B:0.22%)
67.62% (G:13.11% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.599...-0.578) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
10.Rollout223/18eq: -0.589 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
32.34% (G:6.28% B:0.24%)
67.66% (G:14.50% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.599...-0.580) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
11.Rollout223/20 13/11eq: -0.593 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
32.39% (G:6.74% B:0.24%)
67.61% (G:15.35% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.603...-0.582) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
12.Rollout223/20 8/6eq: -0.597 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
32.20% (G:6.63% B:0.23%)
67.80% (G:15.25% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.608...-0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
13.Rollout28/6 8/5eq: -0.605 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
31.88% (G:6.59% B:0.21%)
68.12% (G:13.22% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.614...-0.595) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
14.Rollout28/3eq: -0.608 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
32.30% (G:6.35% B:0.21%)
67.70% (G:13.72% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.618...-0.597) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
15.Rollout224/21 13/11eq: -0.617 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:
31.71% (G:6.03% B:0.22%)
68.29% (G:13.73% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.627...-0.606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
16.Rollout224/21 8/6eq: -0.627 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent:
31.45% (G:5.89% B:0.21%)
68.55% (G:13.43% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.637...-0.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
17.Rollout224/22 13/10eq: -0.628 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent:
31.22% (G:5.49% B:0.19%)
68.78% (G:12.12% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.638...-0.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
18.Rollout224/22 8/5eq: -0.634 (-0.140)
Player:
Opponent:
30.96% (G:5.50% B:0.20%)
69.04% (G:12.19% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.644...-0.623) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
19.Rollout213/11 6/3eq: -0.638 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:
31.58% (G:6.07% B:0.23%)
68.42% (G:14.83% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.648...-0.627) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
20.Rollout224/21 23/21eq: -0.658 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:
29.06% (G:2.95% B:0.10%)
70.94% (G:3.96% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.666...-0.649) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 8/5 6/4
[11] 24/21 23/21
[ 3] 13/10 6/4
[ 2] 23/20 6/4
[ 1] 23/18
[ 1] 24/21 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 6/4

Anchoring up looks bad to me as Neil will tidy up his 10 point blot and then be able to reach a point where he can double.

6/4 has to be the 2, giving us a stronger board or a ‘board with bite’ to quote a friend.

8/5 looks ok, but how do we intend to win this? The question I ask myself a lot. We need to confront Neil now with 24/21. Yes, I know that is stepping under the gun with 4 builders aimed at us. But that is my move, and in a chouette if it all went wrong, I am sure the others would think me crazy but it puts Neil under pressure right now.



Neil Kazaross: 32 13/11 13/10


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BCB-C----Ccb-d-f---AA-:0:0:1:55:3:6:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BD-C---cDbb-c-e---AA-:0:0:1:52:3:6:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout123/21 8/3eq: -0.693
Player:
Opponent:
29.57% (G:5.15% B:0.18%)
70.43% (G:12.21% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.697...-0.689) - [65.2%]
Duration: 10 hours 29 minutes
2.playedRollout113/8 6/4eq: -0.694 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
29.54% (G:4.82% B:0.17%)
70.46% (G:11.28% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.698...-0.690) - [33.6%]
Duration: 11 hours 03 minutes
3.Rollout123/21 13/8eq: -0.698 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
29.44% (G:4.73% B:0.15%)
70.56% (G:11.72% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.702...-0.694) - [1.2%]
Duration: 10 hours 15 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 8/3eq: -0.708 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
29.10% (G:4.86% B:0.16%)
70.90% (G:11.24% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.712...-0.704) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 48 minutes
5.Rollout28/3 6/4eq: -0.709 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
29.55% (G:4.93% B:0.16%)
70.45% (G:12.07% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.718...-0.699) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
6.Rollout223/18 6/4eq: -0.718 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
29.32% (G:4.77% B:0.18%)
70.68% (G:13.51% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.728...-0.709) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
7.Rollout223/16eq: -0.719 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
29.24% (G:5.05% B:0.21%)
70.76% (G:14.09% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.729...-0.708) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
8.Rollout224/22 13/8eq: -0.719 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
28.89% (G:4.01% B:0.17%)
71.11% (G:9.99% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.729...-0.710) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
9.Rollout213/11 13/8eq: -0.725 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
28.85% (G:4.52% B:0.16%)
71.15% (G:10.88% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.735...-0.715) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
10.Rollout213/6eq: -0.731 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
28.57% (G:4.45% B:0.20%)
71.43% (G:11.05% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.741...-0.722) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
11.Rollout224/22 8/3eq: -0.732 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
28.58% (G:4.23% B:0.16%)
71.42% (G:10.43% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.742...-0.723) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
12.Rollout223/18 13/11eq: -0.735 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
28.62% (G:4.49% B:0.21%)
71.38% (G:12.29% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.746...-0.725) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 13/8 6/4
[ 7] 8/3 6/4
[ 5] 23/18 13/11
[ 4] 24/22 13/8
[ 3] 23/21 13/8
[ 2] 23/18 6/4
[ 1] 13/11 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/4

We ask ourselves: how do we intend to win this game? We cannot prime Neil, and we are behind in the race by 15 pips after the roll so racing does not looks bad. The most likely way that we will win this is if we get a shot, hit the checker and contain the hit checker.

We do not have a shot now, so we should work on containing the checker when we hopefully get the shot and hit the checker. This means we should build our board now. So we should play 6/4 then play either 8/3 (my preference) or 13/8. I would agree with either in a chouette if my partners felt strongly about either play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABC-D---cCbb-c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:54:3:6:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/8 10/6eq: +0.251
Player:
Opponent:
59.60% (G:12.09% B:0.49%)
40.40% (G:10.34% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.241...+0.261) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/1* eq: +0.220 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
59.36% (G:12.12% B:0.51%)
40.64% (G:11.52% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.208...+0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 6/2* eq: +0.129 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
57.30% (G:12.00% B:0.56%)
42.70% (G:12.69% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.118...+0.141) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
4.Rollout16/2* 6/1* eq: +0.120 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
56.78% (G:13.16% B:0.63%)
43.22% (G:12.52% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.108...+0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
5.Rollout110/1* eq: +0.112 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:
56.43% (G:11.96% B:0.55%)
43.57% (G:12.94% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.101...+0.123) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
6.Rollout111/6 10/6eq: +0.025 (-0.226)
Player:
Opponent:
53.84% (G:12.13% B:0.58%)
46.16% (G:12.95% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.014...+0.036) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 10/6.

This may be my least useful roll and makes me happy that I didn’t cube. Especially at this score, I felt that I needed to make a good point first, and then consider whether to cube.

I am now up 24 pips and out-boarded as well and don’t want to be hit as all of my checkers are at least half way home. This means play to not be hit. I leave only 9 shots, with the ugly 13/8 10/6 and if hit I have quite a few return shots. This also retains my builder structure for next roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABC-D---bCba-d-f---AA-:0:0:1:32:3:6:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:3:6:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout124/23 13/8eq: +0.134
Player:
Opponent:
50.12% (G:13.76% B:0.58%)
49.88% (G:13.33% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.130...+0.139) - [98.6%]
Duration: 16 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: +0.126 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
49.94% (G:14.02% B:0.55%)
50.06% (G:14.45% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.121...+0.132) - [1.4%]
Duration: 17 hours 51 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/13 13/8
[13] 13/8 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 6/5

I recommend my normal opening 51, which is to slot. Even here being behind in the match it may not be correct, but that is my play. If Neil misses, we get the chance to make our 5 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:33:3:6:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout124/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.151
Player:
Opponent:
55.61% (G:14.36% B:0.54%)
44.39% (G:8.30% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.141...+0.161) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
2.Rollout124/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.124 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
54.88% (G:14.50% B:0.67%)
45.12% (G:8.56% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.114...+0.134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout113/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.069 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
54.46% (G:17.40% B:1.14%)
45.54% (G:12.51% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.057...+0.080) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21(2) 13/10(2).

The correct play for money is to make the 21 and 10 points, and at this score where I don’t want to face gammonish cubes, this also must be correct.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBD-C---cD-b-c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:55:3:6:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout121/11(2)eq: +0.645
Player:
Opponent:
69.45% (G:9.60% B:0.30%)
30.55% (G:4.57% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.635...+0.656) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout121/16(2) 10/5(2)eq: +0.504 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:
65.56% (G:14.17% B:0.54%)
34.44% (G:6.85% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.494...+0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/11(2).

When ahead in the race, one should usually run. 21/11(2) leaves me ahead 22 pips and with an outfield structure of points that functions as builders as well. I call this type of game that I will now have “15 vs. 2.” If I can soon make a point or two in my board, this position shouldn’t be too hard to bring home.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BD-C---cDbb-c-e---AA-:0:0:1:52:3:6:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-BBBB-----bF---dbe----A-:0:0:1:00:2:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 76.47% (G:35.31% B:1.52%) 76.39% (G:36.56% B:1.40%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 23.53% (G:4.24% B:0.18%) 23.61% (G:4.49% B:0.18%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.834 +1.809
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+1.096±0.007 (+1.090..+1.103)
     Double/Take:+1.726 (+0.630)±0.011 (+1.715..+1.738)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.096)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 13.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] Double
[15] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

I always try to think of what I would do in a doubling position for money, then adjust for the match score. In New Zealand, we do not use the Jacoby rule, so it is even easier to adjust as we have to consider if we are Too Good to Double.

Here we have a four point board, we have escaped one checker and our opponent has a checker on the bar. Neil has a three prime and a stripped mid-point. For money I think we are Too Good to Double.

At 9 away 5 away, I still think we are Too Good to Double, but we should double if we thought that our opponent would mistakenly take. This is dependent on the opponent, but here I do not think a player of Neil’s ability would take this, so we have to hold on to the cube.


Neil Kazaross passes.

I pass thinking that they were too good to double here. Note that many of my entering rolls expose a new blot.


USBGF Members win one point, and Neil Kazaross leads 5-away/8-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:3:6:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---bF---dbe----A-:0:0:1:33:2:6:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/5(2) 6/3*(2) eq: +0.999
Player:
Opponent:
72.25% (G:29.49% B:1.41%)
27.75% (G:5.21% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.993...+1.005) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout113/10(2) 6/3*(2) eq: +0.870 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:
66.78% (G:22.70% B:1.00%)
33.22% (G:7.52% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.862...+0.878) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 8/5(2) 6/3*(2)
[ 1] 13/10(2) 6/3*(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5(2) 6/3*(2)

For money, we should play 8/5(2) 6/3*(2) to win more games and more gammons. Here we are trailing 9-away/5-away, so we need to make aggressive moves which win more gammons, so we should just make the same play that we would for money.



Neil Kazaross: 33 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-BBBB-----bF---dbe----A-:0:0:1:00:2:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 35
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 41
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ECBC-B------------baabd--:0:0:-1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 97.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 97.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 2.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 2.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.950 +2.045
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+1.000 (0.000)±0.000 (+1.000..+1.000)
     Double/Take:+2.037 (+1.037)±0.001 (+2.036..+2.039)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] Pass
[ 1] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Pass

We need to use Matussek’s adjustments to the EPC to get the EPC. Matussek’s paper on EPC gave an exact formula for the number of checkers on each point, but then in the iSight paper the author outlined an approximate method. I use both methods depending on the position.

It usually takes 3 lessons to fully cover EPC, so I will not attempt to cover it completely here.

With the approximate method you take the raw Pipcount plus a constant of 5, plus 2 for every checker on the 1 point and 1 for every checker on the 2 or 3 points.

We have 41 + 5 + (2 * 5) + (1 * 5) = 61, our actual EPC is 60.7

Neil has 35 + 5 + (1 * 6) = 46 which is the actual EPC.

John O’Hagan recommended that you take 7 from each EPC and then plug the numbers in to the Kleinman count. If we subtract 7 we get our side 54, and Neil 39. I like to use the Benjamin count, which was invented by Arthur Benjamin as I have always found it more accurate than the Kleinman count. It uses the Kleinman count as its basis, and the simple way I describe it is “it’s like the Kleinman count but was more calculations to get a more accurate answer.” Here the Benjamin count = 364÷68 = 5.3

In the table for the Benjamin count 5.3 is equivalent to 94% winning chances for Neil. This makes it very easy, as our take point has to be greater than 6% so we should pass. Note that in fact Neil wins this 97.5% of the time. The effective live cube take point at 9 away 4 away is 24% from memory.

Although the Benjamin count has slightly more calculations than the Kleinman count, you can minimize the amount of calculations if you are prepared to put in the time memorizing numbers. It is not for the fainthearted, but I have never found a method more accurate. Of course, you may be seriously good at doing mathematical calculations, in which case you would need to do less memorization.

Anyway, this would be my approach over the board.


Neil Kazaross wins one point and leads 5-away/9-away.



Neil Kazaross: 51 24/23 13/8
USBGF Members: 65 24/13

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dF---d-e----A-:0:0:-1:41:2:6:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout123/22 13/9eq: -0.254
Player:
Opponent:
45.87% (G:12.36% B:0.60%)
54.13% (G:12.34% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.258...-0.250) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 53 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 23/22eq: -0.266 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
45.70% (G:10.18% B:0.45%)
54.30% (G:11.85% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.270...-0.262) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 49 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/22 13/9.

It seems best to try to make a slight improvement on both sides of the board with 23/22 13/9.



USBGF Members: 42 8/4 6/4
Neil Kazaross: 62 13/7 9/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---bF---dbe----A-:0:0:1:33:2:6:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBBB------a-----Bdbcad--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout15/4 5/1eq: -0.558
Player:
Opponent:
32.63% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
67.37% (G:0.52% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.563...-0.553) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout15/1 2/1eq: -0.633 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
30.28% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
69.72% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.640...-0.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 5/4 5/1
[ 3] 18/13
[ 1] 18/14 2/1
[ 1] 5/1 2/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 5/4 5/1

HI Jason,

“We missed, and although I hate to tear up our board, we have to.

The way to tear it up is 5/4 5/1, as this leaves no blots. We will get a another chance to hit Neil’s blot when he does not get past us on 16 rolls (66, 33, 22, 11, 51, 42, 41, 32, 31, 21). That’s 42% of the time, and assuming we then hit 1/3 of those rolls, that’s 14% of the time overall.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ECBC-------a-----Bdbcad--:0:0:-1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.40% (G:0.57% B:0.01%) 67.56% (G:0.55% B:0.01%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.60% (G:0.06% B:0.00%) 32.44% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.354 +0.817
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.558±0.005 (+0.553..+0.563)
     Double/Take:+0.501 (-0.057)±0.007 (+0.494..+0.507)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.442)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

Memory says that I am hit about 15% next roll due to not being able to get by this roll. This would seem to indicate that I can cube, but while I lead in the race due to their wastage, this lead isn’t overwhelming. My 66, which would be a game winner if I could move, is a complete waste of 24 pips. The score is also a factor, as if I have to eat a 4 cube after getting hit, I have little vig in recubing to 8 for the match. All in all, it seems prudent to wait. I’d cube for sure if I were certain to be able to get by their anchor, even with a 7. But, here I’ll wait and reconsider next turn if not hit.



Neil Kazaross: 55 13/3 5/0(2)
USBGF Members: 41 18/17 18/14
Neil Kazaross: 64 6/0 4/0
USBGF Members: 64 17/11 14/10
Neil Kazaross: 41 6/5 4/0
USBGF Members: 54 11/6 10/6

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 35
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 41
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ECBC-B------------baabd--:0:0:-1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-09-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCBBA-----b-----Bcbcad--:0:0:1:42:2:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout16/2 3/1eq: -0.177
Player:
Opponent:
44.67% (G:0.76% B:0.02%)
55.33% (G:1.38% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.183...-0.172) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 5/1eq: -0.283 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
41.03% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
58.97% (G:2.34% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.289...-0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout16/2 5/3eq: -0.285 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
41.02% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)
58.98% (G:2.45% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.291...-0.279) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds
4.Rollout15/3 5/1eq: -0.288 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
40.74% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
59.26% (G:2.27% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.294...-0.282) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 6/2 3/1
[ 1] 5/3 5/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/2 3/1

There is no way we should leave a double shot here, especially as the alternative 6/2 3/1 retains a 5 point board, so that is the play.

If we had rolled 52 then we should still keep the 18 point by playing 6/1 3/1.



Neil Kazaross: 61 13/6


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBBB------a-----Bdbcad--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBBA----b-----Bcbcad--:0:0:1:63:2:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout17/1 6/3eq: -0.244
Player:
Opponent:
42.60% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
57.40% (G:1.27% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.250...-0.238) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout17/1 5/2eq: -0.281 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
41.14% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
58.86% (G:1.49% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.286...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 55 seconds
3.Rollout118/9eq: -0.289 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
40.17% (G:2.23% B:0.06%)
59.83% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.295...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 7/1 6/3
[11] 18/9
[ 1] 18/15 7/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/1 6/3

If we run, any 6 for Neil is now much better than if we stay.

If we run, we will be ahead in the race by 1 pip, which means we are behind in the race.

The argument against running is that Neil’s board will improve next roll so it will be harder to run later. Firstly, we do not want to run unless we roll big doubles so we will not be leaving a shot. If we play 7/1 6/3, and Neil then rolls 54, 53, 51, 43 or 42 then he still leaves an inner board blot. 54 leaves two inner board blots.

So, we should give up one inner board point to make Neil’s 6’s awkward.



Neil Kazaross: 66 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCBBA-----b-----Bcbcad--:0:0:1:42:2:5:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BABBBC-A---b----cBcbcaa--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/7 6/2eq: -0.154
Player:
Opponent:
45.23% (G:1.63% B:0.04%)
54.77% (G:2.12% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.157...-0.152) - [99.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
2.Rollout16/5 6/2eq: -0.160 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
44.95% (G:1.50% B:0.03%)
55.05% (G:2.15% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.162...-0.157) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
3.Rollout26/2 5/4eq: -0.173 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
44.57% (G:1.56% B:0.04%)
55.43% (G:2.32% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.179...-0.168) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 52 seconds
4.Rollout26/1eq: -0.174 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
44.48% (G:1.65% B:0.04%)
55.52% (G:2.40% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.180...-0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 26 seconds
5.Rollout26/2 3/2eq: -0.186 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
44.31% (G:1.19% B:0.03%)
55.69% (G:2.33% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.192...-0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 33 seconds
6.Rollout26/2 4/3eq: -0.198 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
44.08% (G:1.27% B:0.03%)
55.92% (G:2.39% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.204...-0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 44 seconds
7.Rollout25/4 5/1eq: -0.203 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
43.75% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
56.25% (G:2.27% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.209...-0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 14 seconds
8.Rollout28/7 5/1eq: -0.209 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
43.83% (G:1.23% B:0.03%)
56.17% (G:2.59% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.215...-0.203) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 53 seconds
9.Rollout25/1 3/2eq: -0.215 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
43.64% (G:1.12% B:0.02%)
56.36% (G:2.52% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.221...-0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 42 seconds
10.Rollout218/13eq: -0.232 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
41.65% (G:10.12% B:0.24%)
58.35% (G:9.19% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.238...-0.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 13 seconds
11.Rollout25/1 4/3eq: -0.243 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
42.91% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
57.09% (G:2.52% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.249...-0.237) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 01 second
12.Rollout28/4 6/5eq: -0.255 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
42.18% (G:1.74% B:0.05%)
57.82% (G:1.96% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.261...-0.249) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 13 seconds
13.Rollout28/4 3/2eq: -0.257 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
42.16% (G:1.83% B:0.05%)
57.84% (G:2.15% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.263...-0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 36 seconds
14.Rollout28/3eq: -0.260 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
42.10% (G:1.74% B:0.04%)
57.90% (G:2.01% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.266...-0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 8/7 6/2



Neil Kazaross: 66 8/2(3)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBBA----b-----Bcbcad--:0:0:1:63:2:5:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10