USBGF OLM 2017-02-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-CB-adD---c-e---A--:0:0:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout123/22 13/8eq: +0.465
Player:
Opponent:
60.22% (G:12.51% B:0.54%)
39.78% (G:9.24% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.454...+0.476) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout123/18 6/5eq: +0.406 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
59.65% (G:10.82% B:0.45%)
40.35% (G:10.08% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.396...+0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout113/7eq: +0.398 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
58.34% (G:13.37% B:0.54%)
41.66% (G:9.77% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.387...+0.409) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
4.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: +0.385 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
58.36% (G:12.71% B:0.51%)
41.64% (G:10.28% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.373...+0.396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79647184
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 23/22 13/8
[ 7] 13/8 6/5
[ 1] 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 23/22 13/8

No need for anything fancy or forcing. We want to get home quietly past his anchor and win the race, so playing quietly with 23/22 13/8 makes sense. Our chances are good to make the 5 and 4 point in front of him, or make just one and then get through the first part of our bearoff without the other, without ever taking the risk of slotting. We have plenty of rolls ahead to try, so no need to get impatient now.



Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5 6/5
USBGF Members: 32 13/11*/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 171
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--b--E-EB--dB---b-db-A---:0:0:-1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.317
Player:
Opponent:
44.59% (G:11.46% B:0.54%)
55.41% (G:15.77% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.322...-0.312) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 26 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/11eq: -0.335 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
43.86% (G:11.67% B:0.53%)
56.14% (G:15.38% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.340...-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 30 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.373 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
42.64% (G:10.74% B:0.50%)
57.36% (G:14.33% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.384...-0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 29 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40749428
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40749428
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 6/4.

Now that I have an anchor, I think I can afford to play more aggressively. I want to maximize long term contact and enter on the 24 point and then 6/4 has considerably more potential than 13/11 and hopefully is worth the risk.
Note that the builder on the 11 point isn’t very strong when I have my 5 point as it isn’t a builder for my 5 point. When my 8 point is stripped I also cannot play 41 making a 4 prime. Additionally, the checker on my 4 point is also a builder for the 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 168
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-b--E-EB--dB---b-cbaA---:0:0:1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/23 13/9eq: +0.085
Player:
Opponent:
49.95% (G:14.46% B:0.60%)
50.05% (G:14.13% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.081...+0.090) - [99.6%]
Duration: 20 hours 39 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: +0.076 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
49.98% (G:14.35% B:0.55%)
50.02% (G:14.96% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.072...+0.081) - [0.4%]
Duration: 22 hours 27 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 24/23 13/9
[ 9] 13/9 6/5
[ 2] 24/20 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/23 13/9

If slotting produced a lot more gammons for us, without the price being too many added losses, it might be right here. But the current bot-wisdom seems to be that isn’t the case. Part of the problem is that unlike slotting with a 21 opener, we leave some added outside-hit numbers (62 and 53) that didn’t already hit on the 5 point. So today I’m playing 24/23 13/9, as I normally do*.

But even if XG 9, or 17, or whatever someday tells us that when behind in a match, it’s “right” by, say, .002 to slot with 41, I’m not switching. I will still need to know responses to the 41 slot opener, since other players will be doing it, but I will not need to know where to go on the move following that, since I will always be splitting with my own opening 41s. I don’t memorize a lot of Move 3 material, just principles and some key reference positions, so I find it helpful to simplify when I can. Almost never playing the 41 slot opener means I don’t have to keep even vague impressions about one set of third moves in my limited human memory bank.

* I slot with a 41 opener against only one opponent, Howard Shirey, and always remind him that it’s only because he likes it so much. There, Howard! You just got 15 seconds of fame in BG-land


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.280
Player:
Opponent:
45.84% (G:12.28% B:0.67%)
54.16% (G:16.68% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.285...-0.275) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout124/21eq: -0.295 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
45.56% (G:11.36% B:0.60%)
54.44% (G:16.50% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.299...-0.290) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 17 minutes
3.Rollout224/23 24/22eq: -0.322 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
45.01% (G:11.14% B:0.68%)
54.99% (G:17.02% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.333...-0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 13/11.

The correct 21 reply to 41 24/23 13/9 for money is 24/23 13/11 so I will play that here.



USBGF Members: 63 23/14*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 178
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaa---E-CA--dDA--c-e----A-:0:0:-1:65:1:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.574
Player:
Opponent:
39.00% (G:9.51% B:0.44%)
61.00% (G:18.39% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.579...-0.569) - [61.8%]
Duration: 14 hours 41 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/14eq: -0.575 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
38.67% (G:9.12% B:0.44%)
61.33% (G:17.57% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.579...-0.570) - [38.2%]
Duration: 14 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/20 24/18eq: -0.599 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
37.80% (G:8.69% B:0.56%)
62.20% (G:19.49% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.613...-0.585) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92246088
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92246088
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/14.

This sort of bad 6 entry is never pleasant. Normally one hops out with bar/14 but that is into a double shot so maybe I can find another move. 24/18 looks like leading with my chin I may come out OK, but I could get knocked out as there are many builders. 13/7 is constructive, but I fear how exposed I am both to pointing shots and double hits.

I’ll go with b/14 trying to minimize the immediate damage that can be done to me.



USBGF Members: 51 24/23 14/9


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-CB-adD---c-e---A--:0:0:-1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/22 23/22eq: -0.593
Player:
Opponent:
36.82% (G:8.00% B:0.32%)
63.18% (G:13.03% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.604...-0.581) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 6/4eq: -0.624 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
37.33% (G:8.21% B:0.38%)
62.67% (G:16.88% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.636...-0.613) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.627 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
37.39% (G:8.65% B:0.37%)
62.61% (G:17.18% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.638...-0.617) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes
4.Rollout114/11eq: -0.632 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
36.94% (G:8.38% B:0.37%)
63.06% (G:16.78% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.643...-0.620) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92246088
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 23/22.

It has been said that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. This is often true when your opponent has 10 or more checkers in the attack zone. 14/11 doesn’t really accomplish very much and every roll that I remain unanchored leaves chances for the USBGF Members to roll an attacking joker and soon blow me away. The score also is starting to matter, as for cubeful reasons, I want to reduce the chances of me losing a gammon. If this were DMP or a gammon go score for me I’d find some play more flexible and enterprising than anchoring but here I will opt for a play that should keep me in the game for a while.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-CB-adD---c-e---A--:0:0:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-13 Start of Match #6 Game #4

[Previous][Next]

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-13 End of Match #6 Game #3

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 92
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBaC-D-C--a-----aabbbbbaA:1:-1:-1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo redoubleRedouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:92.56% (G:12.62% B:0.12%)93.74% (G:11.77% B:0.12%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:7.44% (G:1.62% B:0.10%)6.26% (G:1.87% B:0.11%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.966+1.966
Cubeful Equities
xg No redouble:+1.014±0.002 (+1.012..+1.016)
     Redouble/Take:+1.923 (+0.909)±0.004 (+1.919..+1.927)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.014)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 18 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Pass
[ 2] Take


Mary Hickey recommends: Pass

This was our worst case scenario, hit/fan. Of course we have a dead drop. The only controversy possible here is whether Neil might have been too good, but I tend to go with “When in doubt, ship it.” If anyone took this, you need to think hard about how you assess not only gammon chances, but also how you figure out how much “squirm vig” you have in cases like this. There sure isn’t much here.

Even if he rolls 55 or 53, which not only don’t cover either the ace or the bar but also leave his straggler stuck in our home, he still has a top-five board and we’re still on the bar. And even if we roll an ace from there and hit him, he hasn’t missed his return shots yet. The Wuggly Ump is at the door, so don’t open it–pass and reset!


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

This is certainly a difficult decision, as I have 28 good numbers that either close my prime or cover the ace point and give me some chances to win a gammon. But there are two problems. (1) I don’t like the 8 numbers that don’t work, and I don’t think that I am supposed to break my board to cover the ace point blot with those rolls. Therefore I will be vulnerable to being hit on the ace point and things could then blow up. (2) My overall gammon chances aren’t very high anyhow.

I’d play on if I had a couple more working numbers or if my opponents still had a blot on their ace point, but as it is I am enough concerned about their 4 point board that I will cautiously cash this game.


Neil Kazaross wins two points, and leads 7-away/10-away.

USBGF OLM 2017-02-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 100
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACbC-C-C--B-----aabbbbba-:1:-1:1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout111/6 2/1eq: +0.361
Player:
Opponent:
70.57% (G:2.82% B:0.09%)
29.43% (G:1.69% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.358...+0.365) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 2/1eq: +0.305 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
68.54% (G:1.82% B:0.02%)
31.46% (G:1.67% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.301...+0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout18/2eq: +0.293 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
67.56% (G:2.22% B:0.03%)
32.44% (G:2.03% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.290...+0.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout111/10 11/6eq: +0.285 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
67.68% (G:2.45% B:0.11%)
32.32% (G:2.92% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.281...+0.289) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 11/6 2/1
[ 5] 8/2
[ 3] 6/1 2/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 11/6 2/1

We are likely to leave the 62 and 44 indirects some time, and if we wait, he may have a closed board instead of a blot we can hit back. It helps that we get to cover our ace point if we play 11/6 with the 5, because that way our return hits, if it comes to that, are more effective. We’ll have a big board, plus fewer ways for them to backfire immediately by his hitting us again. This looks to be the right time to pay now with three shots, since later we might have to pay more — either by leaving more shots, or by having them be more costly if they’re hit.



Neil Kazaross: 62 22/14*
USBGF Members: 52 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 92
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBaC-D-C--a-----aabbbbbaA:1:-1:-1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross redoubles to 4.


USBGF OLM 2017-02-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbD-D-C--B-a----bbbbbb--:1:-1:1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout16/2 4/1eq: +0.389
Player:
Opponent:
72.04% (G:2.07% B:0.02%)
27.96% (G:1.59% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.388...+0.391) - [86.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2.xgRollout18/1eq: +0.388 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
71.77% (G:2.40% B:0.02%)
28.23% (G:1.80% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.387...+0.390) - [13.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout211/4eq: +0.307 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
68.43% (G:1.62% B:0.02%)
31.57% (G:2.60% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.303...+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 6/2 4/1
[11] 8/1
[ 3] 11/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/1

Continuing the plan of preparing to clear the outside, 8/1 looks good today. If the loss of its spare means we end up clearing the 8 point ahead of the 11, that’s all right, since at least then we won’t leave a direct shot there.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACbC-C-C--B-a----bbbbbb--:1:-1:-1:64:1:2:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout112/8 7/1eq: -0.397
Player:
Opponent:
27.75% (G:1.58% B:0.03%)
72.25% (G:2.31% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.399...-0.396) - [66.9%]
Duration: 57 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout112/2eq: -0.398 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
27.44% (G:1.52% B:0.04%)
72.56% (G:2.12% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.399...-0.396) - [33.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.Rollout112/6 7/3eq: -0.401 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
27.25% (G:1.42% B:0.03%)
72.75% (G:2.15% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.402...-0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout27/3 7/1eq: -0.406 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
27.10% (G:1.43% B:0.02%)
72.90% (G:2.31% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.409...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 01 second
5.Rollout27/1 5/1eq: -0.425 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
26.44% (G:1.16% B:0.02%)
73.56% (G:2.52% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.429...-0.422) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 02 seconds
6.Rollout222/16 12/8eq: -0.427 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
27.90% (G:2.46% B:0.06%)
72.10% (G:5.24% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.430...-0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds
7.Rollout212/6 5/1eq: -0.432 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
26.06% (G:1.30% B:0.03%)
73.94% (G:2.68% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.435...-0.429) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 28 seconds
8.Rollout222/16 7/3eq: -0.440 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
27.54% (G:2.59% B:0.08%)
72.46% (G:6.52% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.443...-0.437) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 27 seconds
9.Rollout27/1 6/2eq: -0.450 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
25.38% (G:1.26% B:0.04%)
74.62% (G:3.45% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.454...-0.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 05 seconds
10.Rollout222/12eq: -0.459 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
25.45% (G:1.48% B:0.04%)
74.55% (G:2.28% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.462...-0.456) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 01 second
11.Rollout222/18 12/6eq: -0.462 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
27.03% (G:2.18% B:0.07%)
72.97% (G:6.47% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.465...-0.459) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/8 7/1.

Now with a large roll, I think that I should prepare to make my ace point since the play that holds my bar point is awkward. Therefore, I play 12/8 7/1.

It is also possible for me to come off the anchor and apply direct pressure to the 11 point in hopes that my opponents roll a poor shot, forcing a blot. However, I see too many opposing builders and jokers to want to do this right now.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 100
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACbC-C-C--B-----aabbbbba-:1:-1:1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 96
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbB-E-D--Ba-----bcbbab--:1:-1:1:42:1:2:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: +0.399
Player:
Opponent:
72.58% (G:2.12% B:0.03%)
27.42% (G:1.41% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.395...+0.403) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/2eq: +0.384 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
72.01% (G:1.96% B:0.03%)
27.99% (G:1.44% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.380...+0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout18/2eq: +0.375 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
71.56% (G:2.02% B:0.03%)
28.44% (G:1.45% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.371...+0.378) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 00 second
4.Rollout18/6 8/4eq: +0.368 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
70.96% (G:2.27% B:0.03%)
29.04% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.364...+0.371) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 8/4 6/4
[12] 6/4 6/2
[ 1] 8/6 8/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/4 6/4

I know that 8/4 6/4 leaves a shot with 66 next time, but I think it’s worth it to risk that one shot to keep on track with our game plan of clearing the outside points. Taking two men off the 6 point leaves us with only one spare on the 6 point, and if we roll numbers that cause the loss of that spare, we can end up leaving shots later while remaining awkward for the the remainder of the bear-in and bearoff. It looks right to me to take that small risk now in exchange for the improvement of keeping our spares in front of his anchor. I also don’t like that dumping a spare behind him creates a the dilly builder on the 2 point–starting the ace would be preferable. 8/4 6/4 for this bear today.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbD-D-C--Ba-----bcbbab--:1:-1:-1:31:1:2:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout113/12 6/3eq: -0.428
Player:
Opponent:
26.26% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
73.74% (G:2.26% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.432...-0.425) - [99.5%]
Duration: 29 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout17/3eq: -0.435 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
25.97% (G:1.53% B:0.03%)
74.03% (G:2.31% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.438...-0.431) - [0.5%]
Duration: 24 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12 6/3.

6/3 closes my prime and in case I get a quick shot I’d like to keep the 6 prime, so 13/12 with my ace. Depending upon what I roll next turn I may decide to retain the full prime or prepare to make my ace point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbD-D-C--B-a----bbbbbb--:1:-1:1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AbC-D-D--Cb----aacbb-b--:1:-1:1:52:1:2:0:11:10
to play 52

1.Rollout111/4eq: +0.469
Player:
Opponent:
75.61% (G:2.47% B:0.05%)
24.39% (G:1.33% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.468...+0.470) - [55.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes
2.xgRollout18/1eq: +0.469 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
75.55% (G:2.54% B:0.04%)
24.45% (G:1.28% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.467...+0.470) - [44.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes
3.Rollout211/6 8/6eq: +0.461 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
75.22% (G:2.60% B:0.05%)
24.78% (G:1.24% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.457...+0.465) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 52 seconds
4.playedRollout211/6 4/2eq: +0.457 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
75.11% (G:2.41% B:0.05%)
24.89% (G:1.29% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.453...+0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout26/1 4/2eq: +0.445 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
74.60% (G:2.37% B:0.03%)
25.40% (G:1.40% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.442...+0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 11/6 4/2
[10] 11/4
[ 4] 6/1 4/2
[ 3] 11/6 8/6
[ 3] 8/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 11/4

There’s a case for keeping the spare on the 11 point, in order to take another whack at using it to make our 5 point without leaving any indirect shots. But there’s also a case for just clearing the outfield ASAP, and I find that more convincing. I burn the spare, 11/6, and then think about the 2. We could cover the 2 point, but that strips the 4, and we don’t need the 2 point all that badly. If instead we add another spare to the 4 point with 6/4, we have plenty of well-distributed spares everywhere except the 11 point. Since the 11 point is our next one to clear if we can do it safely, or else get our 5 point in return for a few indirects, I’m not worried about that. I recommend 11/4, preparing to clear when we can.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 96
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbB-E-D--Bb----aacbb-b--:1:-1:-1:65:1:2:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/7 8/3eq: -0.450
Player:
Opponent:
25.20% (G:1.29% B:0.02%)
74.80% (G:2.29% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.453...-0.446) - [99.1%]
Duration: 30 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.456 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
24.87% (G:1.23% B:0.02%)
75.13% (G:2.39% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.459...-0.452) - [0.9%]
Duration: 26 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout17/1 6/1eq: -0.463 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
24.54% (G:1.05% B:0.01%)
75.46% (G:2.41% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.467...-0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout18/3 7/1eq: -0.466 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
24.57% (G:1.19% B:0.02%)
75.43% (G:2.60% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.469...-0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout113/7 6/1eq: -0.466 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
24.47% (G:1.18% B:0.07%)
75.53% (G:2.68% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.470...-0.463) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 55 seconds
6.Rollout113/2eq: -0.468 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
24.35% (G:1.03% B:0.02%)
75.65% (G:2.57% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.472...-0.465) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 26 seconds
7.Rollout113/8 7/1eq: -0.471 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
24.32% (G:1.10% B:0.02%)
75.68% (G:2.68% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.475...-0.467) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 8/3.

This looks routine to me as I play 13/7 and then 8/3 slots the point I also want to make. This looks better to me than making the 7 and 8 points since that will only last one turn and I have my 2 point, which requires the 3 point to make a prime.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 96
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbB-E-D--Ba-----bcbbab--:1:-1:1:42:1:2:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 130
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---bC-D-E--BbA---abdb--b--:1:-1:1:62:1:2:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/11 8/2eq: +0.487
Player:
Opponent:
76.45% (G:2.59% B:0.05%)
23.55% (G:1.06% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.483...+0.490) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout113/5eq: +0.225 (-0.262)
Player:
Opponent:
66.57% (G:5.49% B:0.27%)
33.43% (G:6.37% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.220...+0.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 8/6eq: +0.192 (-0.295)
Player:
Opponent:
65.08% (G:5.03% B:0.24%)
34.92% (G:5.91% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.187...+0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15080741
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 13/11 8/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/11 8/2

Our race lead is solid now, so our game plan is to sneak past him and not leave him any shots unless either there’s a very good reason, or we’re forced to do so. The safest play here, 13/11 8/2, gives him no shots and leaves us with well-distributed spares for follow-up, so that’s the play that stands out as best.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 130
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AbC-D-D--Cb----abdb--b--:1:-1:-1:32:1:2:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout17/4 6/4eq: -0.514
Player:
Opponent:
22.52% (G:1.14% B:0.03%)
77.48% (G:2.71% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.516...-0.513) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 05 minutes
2.xgRollout113/10 6/4eq: -0.518 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
22.42% (G:1.15% B:0.03%)
77.58% (G:2.81% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.519...-0.516) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 32 minutes
3.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: -0.518 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
22.40% (G:1.14% B:0.03%)
77.60% (G:2.79% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.520...-0.517) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/4 6/4.

This game is nothing but a 3 point game now for me. I am happy to make my 4 point here. I slightly prefer this to slotting both my 4 point and 3 point since I may roll awkwardly and have problems covering both points.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AbC-D-D--Cb----aacbb-b--:1:-1:1:52:1:2:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-E-aBbB---abdb--b--:1:-1:1:63:1:2:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/10* 10/4eq: +0.312
Player:
Opponent:
66.70% (G:13.46% B:0.73%)
33.30% (G:6.95% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.307...+0.318) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 8/5eq: +0.216 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
64.50% (G:9.72% B:0.37%)
35.50% (G:6.52% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.211...+0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 13/10*eq: +0.165 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
63.31% (G:10.44% B:0.47%)
36.69% (G:10.17% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.160...+0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 13/10*/4
[ 3] 11/5 8/5
[ 3] 13/10 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/10*/4

Of course we have to hit, 13/10*, and after that the best way to minimize both his return shots and the blots he can bounce around is to continue 10/4. The only weakness in this play is that it creates a dilly builder, but this isn’t a really bad one since we’d be happy to make the 3 or even the 2 point if we can’t have the 5 point next.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 135
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--C-D-E--BbA---abdb--b--:1:-1:-1:32:1:2:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 24/22eq: -0.444
Player:
Opponent:
25.19% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
74.81% (G:2.97% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.448...-0.440) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/5eq: -0.465 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
28.08% (G:4.65% B:0.12%)
71.92% (G:14.29% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.469...-0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout1Bar/22 6/4eq: -0.469 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
28.95% (G:5.66% B:0.18%)
71.05% (G:17.25% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.474...-0.464) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/20eq: -0.473 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
28.43% (G:4.94% B:0.19%)
71.57% (G:16.25% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.478...-0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/23 6/3eq: -0.474 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
28.73% (G:5.87% B:0.18%)
71.27% (G:16.99% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.479...-0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 24/22.

I make the 22 point which when compared to staying split will sacrifice a few wins to prevent many gammon losses. The USBGF Members have far too many checkers and builders in the attack zone for me to be comfortable staying split.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 130
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---bC-D-E--BbA---abdb--b--:1:-1:1:62:1:2:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 2/8 745p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-02-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-E-aBbB---abdb--b--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:68.60% (G:10.37% B:0.31%)68.98% (G:10.40% B:0.33%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:31.40% (G:5.01% B:0.14%)31.02% (G:5.12% B:0.14%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.432+0.912
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.702 (-0.021)±0.003 (+0.699..+0.705)
played Double/Take:+0.723±0.005 (+0.718..+0.728)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.277)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] Double
[13] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

Another day when we may have a double, but I voted not to chuck it out there yet. True, we’re up another pip, and his anchoring threat packed up and left when his forward checker moved out of our board. But along with it went our PoH (“Point on Head”) threat on our 5 point, which was where a lot of our gammons started. Also, if we miss him this turn, he is likely to escape that back man to his side of the board. That will leave us with a potentially difficult containment game as we try to keep one little watermelon seed from squirting away past us. If our lead in the race remains small or goes negative, that will make containment more urgent and our decisions may be even more difficult.

OtB, I’d risk losing my market than deal with a long series of difficult plays while my opponent’s are so easy that he’ll probably be playing Candy Crush Saga on his phone for the rest of this game! So I voted for no double here too, but again won’t whale at anybody who did double. We have to be the favorite here, so even if we’re a peach short of a pie today, it won’t be the world’s biggest outrage if we double and then win the game.


Neil Kazaross takes.

The USBGF Members have likely been close to or have had a proper cube for a few turns now while I have continued to roll lemons instead of a decent roll to stave off the cube. Here the readers have some threats and a 5 pip lead while I am not threating much of anything and my home board while 3 points isn’t very pretty. The readers have some very strong doubles (all except 2’s which aren’t bad) and clearly the better game in general so I expect this, too is a proper initial cube.

However there are some awkward rolls for them as well that leave shots so I cannot even think of passing this. I may still recover if hit with a non-double in the outfield.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-E-aBbB---abdb--b--:1:-1:1:63:1:2:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 131
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-E--BbC---accb--b--:0:0:1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout18/5* 5/1*eq: +0.610
Player:
Opponent:
64.05% (G:17.93% B:0.52%)
35.95% (G:10.41% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.601...+0.619) - [100.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 57 seconds
2.playedRollout113/6eq: +0.514 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
63.85% (G:7.26% B:0.24%)
36.15% (G:5.01% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.506...+0.521) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 13/6
[15] 8/5*/1*
[ 1] 13/9 8/5*


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5*/1*

The safe play of 13/6 would be a strong contender if either our race lead were larger, or it balanced our spares instead of stripping the midpoint. But since his board isn’t big enough yet to make attacks that risk shots too dangerous for us, and 8/5*/1* uses a spare from a stacked point to good advantage, this seems to be the right time to make our big move.

If we are hit, the game’s not over, since we have quite a few decent re-entry rolls. But looking at the upside, how will he like a cube if he fans or enters badly? I don’t think I’m giving much away by saying we should be thinking about the cube when we vote on today’s play, since in theory we should keep the cube in mind on every play.

But even if we’d already doubled, I’d still want to double hit here. We’d still want to pursue the gammons that could follow hitting, and also avoid allowing him to simply roll a 4 and then sit there waiting for a dice-barf to produce a game-winning shot for him. Those look like good thoughts no matter where the cube is–so let’s go for it with that double hit!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 131
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaD-E--BbB---accb--b--:0:0:-1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout120/15 7/6eq: -0.711
Player:
Opponent:
31.29% (G:5.10% B:0.17%)
68.71% (G:10.57% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.721...-0.701) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
2.Rollout120/15 6/5eq: -0.733 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
31.10% (G:4.85% B:0.14%)
68.90% (G:10.89% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.743...-0.723) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout18/3 7/6eq: -0.745 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
32.14% (G:7.80% B:0.21%)
67.86% (G:15.79% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.756...-0.734) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
4.Rollout120/15 8/7eq: -0.753 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
30.66% (G:4.63% B:0.13%)
69.34% (G:10.83% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.763...-0.743) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
5.Rollout18/3 6/5eq: -0.773 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
31.82% (G:7.52% B:0.21%)
68.18% (G:16.31% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.783...-0.763) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
6.Rollout124/23 8/3eq: -0.778 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
31.24% (G:6.24% B:0.18%)
68.76% (G:14.27% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.789...-0.768) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/15 7/6.

I think it best to step away from the killing field on my opponent’s 5 point and to head into the outfield. Now if they can hit me, it is from stripped points. So lacking a better 5 I play 20/15 and then I slightly prefer bearing in with 7/6 rather than stripping my 6 point with 6/5. My opponents simply have too many builders aimed at their 5 point for me to stay there.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-E-aBbB---abdb--b--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-02

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-E-aBbB---abdb--b--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:68.63% (G:10.37% B:0.31%)69.00% (G:10.32% B:0.34%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:31.37% (G:5.04% B:0.14%)31.00% (G:5.13% B:0.15%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.432+0.911
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.701 (-0.020)±0.004 (+0.697..+0.705)
played Double/Take:+0.721±0.007 (+0.715..+0.728)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.279)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
4661 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] No Double
[ 9] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

This position is pretty close to the same as last time, with each side having cleaned up a blot. It’s different in that the game has smoothly progressed one more sequence toward its end, whatever that will be, which in the absence of other factors tends to decrease volatility and make the leading side’s advantage at least a bit more stable. However, his gain of a pip in the race might negate that small factor, if it even exists here.

Overall, these considerations suggest that our double today is either the same or slightly stronger than it was last turn, which induced me to vote for the double today. I admit that I am being influenced by having already having seen the analysis of the earlier decision, and that OtB, I might have played through this cube also.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 131
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-E--BbC---accb--b--:0:0:1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 138
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbCA--bccb-a---:0:0:1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout114/8eq: +0.488
Player:
Opponent:
63.34% (G:6.31% B:0.21%)
36.66% (G:4.57% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.480...+0.496) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
2.Rollout114/9 6/5*eq: +0.293 (-0.195)
Player:
Opponent:
58.14% (G:14.06% B:0.59%)
41.86% (G:14.06% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.283...+0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 14/8
[ 1] 14/9 6/5*


Mary Hickey recommends: 14/8

14/8, because there’s nothing better to do with this roll. Hitting risks way too many shots. At least 14/8 gets rid of that outfield blot, leaving us freer to make a move next time.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 138
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-E--BbC---bccb-a---:0:0:-1:61:1:2:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/2 3/2eq: -0.668
Player:
Opponent:
32.78% (G:6.20% B:0.17%)
67.22% (G:12.47% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.678...-0.658) - [25.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 7/1eq: -0.838 (-0.170)
Player:
Opponent:
30.94% (G:6.25% B:0.19%)
69.06% (G:16.32% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.850...-0.827) - [25.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout113/6eq: -0.860 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
30.45% (G:6.06% B:0.23%)
69.55% (G:15.58% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.872...-0.848) - [25.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 55 seconds
4.Rollout124/23 8/2eq: -0.860 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
31.20% (G:6.42% B:0.20%)
68.80% (G:17.31% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.871...-0.849) - [25.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2 3/2.

The only play that makes any sense is to make another point in my board to clean up a blot.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 131
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-E--BbC---accb--b--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-31

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 138
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbCA--bccb-a---:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:67.86% (G:10.50% B:0.37%)68.01% (G:11.29% B:0.41%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:32.14% (G:4.46% B:0.12%)31.99% (G:4.69% B:0.14%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.425+0.903
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.672 (-0.038)±0.008 (+0.665..+0.680)
xg Double/Take:+0.711±0.010 (+0.701..+0.721)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.289)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] No Double
[ 7] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

We have some obvious advantages today. No men back, a slight lead in the race, and some threats against his forward checker–what’s not to like? We are favored, but since we can’t expect to win a prodigious number of gammons from here, and he’ll have potentially fatal return shots at our hanging blot on the 14 point even if we point on him, I don’t see this game as quite strong enough for me to want to double. It may be an “edgy”, technically correct double, and if it’s wrong, it’s can’t be wrong by much–so I don’t blame anyone for doubling it, but I’d rather wait for a more efficient cube.

If I thought an opponent had any measurable chance of passing, I’d chuck it out there and risk a small error to give him a chance to make a ginormous one. But with Neil–naah, it’s not happening, and that factor isn’t in the mix.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 138
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbCA--bccb-a---:0:0:1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbC-a-bcd--a--A:0:0:1:65:1:2:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout1Bar/14eq: +0.463
Player:
Opponent:
61.86% (G:10.23% B:0.65%)
38.14% (G:7.16% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.459...+0.467) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 54 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 11/5*eq: +0.448 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
59.52% (G:19.39% B:1.45%)
40.48% (G:12.52% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.443...+0.452) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 55 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/14
[ 9] b/20 11/5*


Mary Hickey recommends: b/14

I like the less volatile bar/14 for our 65. Hitting on the 5 point injects more volatility, but there’s no certainty we will be on the right side of it. There is also the irrefutable numerical argument that you can sometimes us in the chou when your compadres want to make some crazy-whack play: “Three blots are more numerous than one!” >> It’s often right to go all-out, leaving extra blots in the process, but do it when the need is greater than here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbCAa-bcd--a---:0:0:-1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout110/5 6/5eq: -0.712
Player:
Opponent:
32.01% (G:4.80% B:0.18%)
67.99% (G:11.43% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.723...-0.701) - [50.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout18/3 6/5eq: -0.781 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
32.01% (G:5.99% B:0.24%)
67.99% (G:15.27% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.792...-0.769) - [50.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5 6/5.

This again isn’t the anchoring roll that I’ve been hoping for but at least I can make my 5 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 138
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbCA--bccb-a---:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--AcC-a-bbe--B---:0:0:1:65:1:2:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout122/11eq: +0.298
Player:
Opponent:
57.13% (G:12.30% B:0.64%)
42.87% (G:9.79% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.288...+0.307) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
2.Rollout111/5* 6/1*eq: +0.234 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
53.12% (G:19.59% B:0.75%)
46.88% (G:12.74% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.222...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 22/11
[ 5] 11/5* 6/1*


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/11

Just because we can hit him on our 5 point, doesn’t mean we have to. If the accompanying 5 played better, then we’d likely want to, but hitting him on the ace (about the only reasonable choice for the 5) is pretty lame, partly for the reasons Chuck notes in his post–too many immediate shots for him that kill our racing advantage, and too much likelihood we leave a blot for him again next turn if we’re missed now. Another reason is that it doesn’t “put our checkers where we want them”–who needs a loose checker on the ace, especially when it will be harder than usual to cover because we strip our 6 point to hit there?

Say instead his second blot was on our 3 point, not the ace. Then the double hit would be much stronger, because we’d be hitting on a better point, destroying a better slot, and using a checker from a stacked point to do it. The double hit might be right then, and I would do it in that case.

We might have to double-hit here also, except that we have a good, solid alternative: 22/11. We leave a so-so anchor before he has a chance to develop a strong attacking formation, and leave him at least somewhat unwilling to attack, since in many cases we’ll have both return shots on his side and numerous re-entry rolls that allow us to hit him loose on our 5 point with 6s, 3s, or 1s. If instead he anchors, we will have a good blocking point, which we may need if our small racing lead doesn’t hold up.

I like 22/11 today. If we can escape Junior soon after this, we may be able to force Neil into a defensive game, where we have an advantage we can build step by step until we have an efficient cube. If we instead go tactical now, who knows where it will end up? We could quickly be on the wrong end of a cube ourselves.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 141
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BcC-a-bbe--A---:0:0:-1:63:1:2:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/7 6/3*eq: -0.537
Player:
Opponent:
38.24% (G:9.75% B:0.47%)
61.76% (G:19.25% B:1.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.548...-0.527) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: -0.673 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
34.67% (G:8.10% B:0.35%)
65.33% (G:18.99% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.686...-0.659) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.Rollout113/7 10/7eq: -0.693 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
34.18% (G:7.53% B:0.25%)
65.82% (G:18.64% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.705...-0.680) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
4.Rollout124/15eq: -0.711 (-0.173)
Player:
Opponent:
35.65% (G:7.15% B:0.39%)
64.35% (G:22.82% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.724...-0.698) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
5.Rollout110/4 7/4eq: -0.716 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:
33.83% (G:8.92% B:0.32%)
66.17% (G:19.57% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.729...-0.703) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 6/3*.

I must hit, both to try to defend my checker on the 20 point that I need to cover and also to try to get something going offensively.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbC-a-bcd--a--A:0:0:1:56:1:2:0:11:10
to play 56

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---dD---bbe--A-A-:0:0:1:22:1:2:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout124/22 13/11 6/4(2)eq: +0.298
Player:
Opponent:
55.59% (G:16.71% B:0.66%)
44.41% (G:10.16% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.287...+0.310) - [99.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
2.Rollout113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.276 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
55.37% (G:17.01% B:0.82%)
44.63% (G:12.08% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.265...+0.287) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 8/4 6/4eq: +0.271 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
54.78% (G:16.46% B:0.65%)
45.22% (G:10.48% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.260...+0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
4.Rollout124/20 22/20 13/11eq: +0.257 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
54.71% (G:13.04% B:0.37%)
45.29% (G:7.07% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.247...+0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 24/22 13/11 6/4(2)
[ 3] 24/20 22/20 13/11
[ 2] 13/11(2) 6/4(2)


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/22 13/11 6/4(2)

Ducks like to waddle in pairs, at least in backgammon, and 6/4(2) is the default with two of the deuces in an early set of 2s. Sometimes another play will beat it out (for example, after 64: split and down, all four of the 2s are used to kick his builder/slot off the 9 point and get ahead in the race.) Other times there might be something wrong with 6/4(2): for example, it might strip the 6 point and/or make us leave a blot hanging at some inopportune location. But here, no considerations along those lines apply, so I will start with 6/4(2).

24/22 looks good for another of the 2s, not because we’re that scared on this roll, but because his position might get more threatening in the future, and we may not have the opportunity then to lock up a defense. The 22-anchor isn’t anybody’s favorite, but it’s not bad when it’s poorly blocked the way it is here. It’s certainly better than the ace or deuce anchor, or no anchor with a man or men on the bar. The Golden Anchor is better, but not enough better to burn three of our four deuces to secure it, and in the process pass up making our 4 point. So again, this deuce looks good, and anything else we see has to fight hard to beat it.

13/11 makes a good fourth deuce. It’s a builder for the 5 or bar point, and maybe even the 9 point, plus it’s a slot for a point we wouldn’t mind having, especially as long as our 5 point is still open (as at least one poster has noted). Making the 11 point right now instead of the 22 seems a bad trade, since leaving the 11 point slotted risks only a 64 hit on this turn, and we’re likely to need an anchor a lot longer than the 11 point. Another factor that will occasionally matter: we can survive being hit on the 11 point if we have the anchor much more easily than getting pointed on his board and entering poorly or even not at all.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-C-D--AdC---bbe--B---:0:0:-1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout124/20 13/10eq: -0.449
Player:
Opponent:
41.59% (G:10.00% B:0.51%)
58.41% (G:19.85% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.459...-0.438) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
2.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.552 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
38.98% (G:9.50% B:0.45%)
61.02% (G:21.37% B:1.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.565...-0.539) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 6/2eq: -0.581 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
38.03% (G:9.83% B:0.45%)
61.97% (G:20.27% B:1.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.593...-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
4.Rollout113/6eq: -0.600 (-0.151)
Player:
Opponent:
37.70% (G:9.13% B:0.39%)
62.30% (G:19.99% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.610...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 13/10.

The way for me to attempt to balance the position is to make my own advanced anchor. I won’t like it if my opponents make their 5 point whether I am pointed on or not. As nothing else looks remotely constructive, I have to stick my head in the lion’s mouth with 24/20 13/10.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--AcC-a-bbe--B---:0:0:1:65:1:2:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-27 Start of Match #6 Game #3

[Previous][Next]


USBGF Members: 52 24/22 13/8
Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---dD---bbe--A-A-:0:0:1:22:1:2:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-27 End of Match #6 Game #2

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBBBE---bB--abac-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:77.53% (G:2.79% B:0.07%)78.02% (G:2.67% B:0.09%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:22.47% (G:1.43% B:0.03%)21.98% (G:1.46% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.565+1.154
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.948 (-0.052)±0.005 (+0.942..+0.953)
     Double/Take:+1.040 (+0.040)±0.007 (+1.033..+1.047)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Double
[ 0] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

The only reason I can imagine for not doubling today is to take a roll for a 66 to try for a gammon. But what if instead we roll nothing much, and he rolls the 66 or 55? Our gammon chances can’t be high enough to give him a free shot to him slime his way back into serious contention. Time to use the cube to either knock him out, or make him pay to see the slime. Double!


Neil Kazaross passes.

This type of 4 point holding game tends to become a small pass for money when the lead becomes greater than 20 pips. Here I am behind 24 pips which should make this a pass, but I have to consider how awkward my opponents 4’s are and can be for some time. 64 and 54 play quite poorly and certainly would leave me happy to have taken this cube. But there’s another factor — and that is that once in a while I won’t have adequate containment ready if I do hit. Due to that factor I am unsure whether to take this for money or not.

That makes my decision here more simple. Clearly even with what is still likely a 25% takepoint, I have somewhat less recube vig than for money at this score. That causes me to think that I technically have a pass at this score. The other factor is that if I felt it was a toss-up at the score, I don’t need to have a potential for several points to be at stake in a position that is easy to play. But still I think this is a pass at the score. My opponent’s lead is too much and they will usually untangle the position.


USBGF Members win one point. Neil Kazaross leads 9-away/10-away.

USBGF OLM 2017-01-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 128
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBBBC---bB--cbBc-ba---:0:0:1:55:0:2:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout118/8(2)eq: +0.983
Player:
Opponent:
77.40% (G:2.95% B:0.06%)
22.60% (G:1.35% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.982...+0.985) - [97.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.Rollout118/13 18/3eq: +0.980 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
76.72% (G:2.67% B:0.07%)
23.28% (G:1.57% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.977...+0.983) - [2.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 48 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 18/8(2)
[ 2] 18/13 18/3
[ 1] 13/3(2)


Mary Hickey recommends: 18/8(2)

We have been making “waiting plays”, waiting for something like this 55 to arrive. Well, it’s here! Now it’s time to dismantle our anchor which has become a liability because of our racing lead, and plop it onto the 8 point, 18/8(2). No need to diversify by leaving a man back on the mid and playing 8/3, because that dilly builder doesn’t gain us anything new. We already have plenty of 2s and 1s to play, and our big doubles don’t play any better or worse if we reduce the size of the stack on the 8 point, either.

An aside: Does anyone know where David Kettler is? No offense to those who have been posting, including Chuck of course, but the discussions aren’t quite the same without him!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBBBE---bB--cb-c-ba---:0:0:-1:62:0:2:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout19/7 9/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
22.15% (G:1.53% B:0.04%)
77.85% (G:2.66% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [14.3%]
Duration: 56 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 8/6eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.84% (G:1.43% B:0.04%)
78.16% (G:2.67% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [14.3%]
Duration: 51 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout19/3 6/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.70% (G:1.44% B:0.05%)
78.30% (G:3.04% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [14.3%]
Duration: 51 minutes 34 seconds
4.Rollout19/7 8/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.89% (G:1.39% B:0.04%)
79.11% (G:2.95% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [14.3%]
Duration: 44 minutes 51 seconds
5.Rollout18/2 4/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.94% (G:1.38% B:0.04%)
79.06% (G:3.23% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [14.3%]
Duration: 50 minutes 33 seconds
6.Rollout19/3 4/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.10% (G:1.44% B:0.04%)
78.90% (G:3.61% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [14.3%]
Duration: 41 minutes 17 seconds
7.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.20% (G:1.23% B:0.05%)
79.80% (G:2.56% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [14.3%]
Duration: 56 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/7 9/3.

9/3 covers my slot and 9/7 diversifies nicely to help me make both my 5 and bar points soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBBBE---bB--abac-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bCCBC---cB--bcBc-b----:0:0:1:32:0:2:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout16/3 5/3eq: +0.363
Player:
Opponent:
60.14% (G:7.45% B:0.24%)
39.86% (G:5.74% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.355...+0.371) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
2.Rollout18/3eq: +0.342 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
59.63% (G:7.55% B:0.26%)
40.37% (G:6.15% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.333...+0.351) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 6/3 5/3
[ 9] 8/3


Mary Hickey recommends:

Again, the natural-looking waiting play looks best. The 3 point is the best inner board point we can make, there’s no better use for those builders, and there’s no play elsewhere on the board fighting it. Leaving shots doesn’t make sense, so we can’t begin clearing our more distant points, even though we’d like to. So, we do what we can and see what develops.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 128
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBBBC---cB--bcBc-b----:0:0:-1:54:0:2:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/9 8/3eq: -0.408
Player:
Opponent:
38.62% (G:5.80% B:0.20%)
61.38% (G:7.82% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.412...-0.405) - [94.7%]
Duration: 10 hours 22 minutes
2.xgRollout113/4eq: -0.412 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
38.73% (G:5.59% B:0.20%)
61.27% (G:8.03% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.415...-0.409) - [5.2%]
Duration: 9 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout29/5 9/4eq: -0.421 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
38.22% (G:5.68% B:0.18%)
61.78% (G:7.14% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.428...-0.413) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 8/3.

Three reasonable plays come to mind and I see little real difference between them. Perhaps it is worth it to try to retain the 9 point for a turn or two more rather than slotting the 5 point. I will go with 13/9 8/3, slotting my 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 128
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBBBC---bB--cbBc-ba---:0:0:1:55:0:2:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBB---dC--acBc-b----:0:0:1:51:0:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout113/8 6/5eq: +0.392
Player:
Opponent:
61.13% (G:6.69% B:0.19%)
38.87% (G:5.30% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.389...+0.396) - [99.9%]
Duration: 13 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout113/7eq: +0.385 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
60.97% (G:6.65% B:0.19%)
39.03% (G:5.37% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.381...+0.388) - [0.1%]
Duration: 13 hours 03 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91247282
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 13/8 6/5
[ 1] 18/13 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/8 6/5

Sometimes the “natural” play not only looks right, but is right. No thoughts of running, or of anything fancy–13/8 6/5 and see where this goes. It’s OK to have rolling a decent double in the next few rolls as part of our game plan. If that doesn’t happen, we can run off the anchor later on if we have to.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bCCBC---dB--acBc-b----:0:0:-1:31:0:2:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout113/9eq: -0.406
Player:
Opponent:
38.24% (G:5.57% B:0.18%)
61.76% (G:7.07% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.415...-0.397) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
2.Rollout19/5eq: -0.435 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
37.50% (G:5.29% B:0.14%)
62.50% (G:6.66% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.443...-0.428) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
3.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.442 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
37.95% (G:6.50% B:0.24%)
62.05% (G:8.22% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.450...-0.434) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9.

I could make my 5 point, but with some 2’s I will be hit. I could slot my 5 point, but see no reason to not make my 9 point and that leaves a flexible position as well.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bCCBC---cB--bcBc-b----:0:0:1:32:0:2:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-23 Start of Match #6 Game #2

[Previous][Next]

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:64:0:2:0:11:10
to play 64

1.Rollout124/14eq: -0.033
Player:
Opponent:
50.46% (G:12.58% B:0.64%)
49.54% (G:13.56% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.037...-0.028) - [49.2%]
Duration: 18 hours 43 minutes
2.playedRollout124/18 13/9eq: -0.033 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
50.22% (G:13.97% B:0.74%)
49.78% (G:13.90% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.038...-0.029) - [31.3%]
Duration: 19 hours 05 minutes
3.xgRollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.034 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
49.61% (G:16.42% B:1.05%)
50.39% (G:14.66% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.039...-0.030) - [19.5%]
Duration: 15 hours 40 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66958413
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/18 13/9.

With 64, I almost always open with the splitting play unless I’m far behind and wanting to raise gammon chances or unless it is practically DMP vs. a strong opponent.



USBGF Members: 66 24/18(2) 13/7*(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 143
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----EBC---dC--acBe------:0:0:-1:22:0:2:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 6/4(2)eq: -0.527
Player:
Opponent:
38.16% (G:8.01% B:0.28%)
61.84% (G:15.10% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.537...-0.517) - [99.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 24/22 6/4(2)eq: -0.545 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
37.47% (G:7.76% B:0.32%)
62.53% (G:15.45% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.554...-0.535) - [0.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 13/9eq: -0.554 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
37.60% (G:7.14% B:0.32%)
62.40% (G:15.16% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.564...-0.544) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27019558
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 6/4(2).

I remember the following 3rd roll position from the Ballard/Weaver book.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
             
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
              pip: 165
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=------EbC-A-cD---cbe----AA:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
to play 31

1.xgXG Roller++Bar/22 6/5eq: -0.558
Player:
Opponent:
36.68% (G:7.25% B:0.26%)
63.32% (G:18.61% B:0.84%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/10eq: -0.634 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
34.80% (G:6.71% B:0.23%)
65.20% (G:16.80% B:0.73%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position after 63 24/18 13/10; 66 24/18(2) 13/7*(2); 31 to play


The correct play is not to routinely enter on the 24 point and make the 10 point but to create more contact with bar/22 6/5!

I will follow the same principle here with bar/21 6/4(2).



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 21 24/21


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBB---dC--acBc-b----:0:0:1:51:0:2:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-23 End of Match #6 Game #1

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 53
             
11 point match
              pip: 77
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BDBCBa-----B--a----bbcf-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo redoubleRedouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:74.08% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)74.21% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:25.92% (G:0.54% B:0.01%)25.79% (G:0.54% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.476+0.980
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.680 (-0.173)±0.002 (+0.677..+0.682)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.853±0.005 (+0.848..+0.858)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.147)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13191740
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 50.9 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] Pass
[16] Take


Mary Hickey recommends: Take

As someone noted two days ago, it’s about 15% that he both doesn’t get away, and we hit him. If that sequence happens, he has a tiny bit of “life after death”, but we can do fuzzy math and say that our tiny gammon chance cancels that out. Most of the time we’re going to end up redoubling to 8 and ending it anyway.

But that 15% isn’t enough to take on its own, so what else do we have going? The race doesn’t look good at all, even with all his inner board wastage, and if the race were all we had, this would be a dead drop. But let’s not think black and white–there’s some race vig here, isn’t there? What if he rolls very small and doesn’t get by us, but we miss with a large number, that is, a big double or two numbers that bring the midpoint down close to home? In cases like that, we may be the first to bear off, and keep the train rolling till we have a decent and likely efficient recube. And even if we get off to a disappointing start, we may still catch up, who knows? Again, our racing chances will certainly not drop to zero here–even if he gets by us and we “roll nothing” on this turn, which would certainly qualify as a bad start.

Do two passes (our shots and our race-plus-recube) add up to a take? I recommend we assume yes, take, and watch carefully every turn from now on for 8-cube opportunities!


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

Obviously I have a clear recube here as I will lose my market most of the time I am not hit and I will only be hit a bit over 14% next turn (if my memory is correct). It is this fact that causes many players to drop this cube incorrectly. Another factor, is that some may have been planning to drop anyhow if they missed me with a non big double.

Lets analyze further. I can almost never win when hit since there are very few sequences that will allow me to take next roll. 86% of the time I am missed. Can my opponents win 15% of those owning the cube? 15% x 86% = 12.9% That number might be a tad high, but I think they can win enough races to get to over 25% cubeful wins.


Neil Kazaross leads 9-away/11-away.

USBGF OLM 2017-01-22

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 53
             
11 point match
              pip: 85
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBBBaB----B--a----bbcf-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/5 8/3eq: -0.858
Player:
Opponent:
25.76% (G:0.56% B:0.01%)
74.24% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.863...-0.853) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.940 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
23.78% (G:1.03% B:0.03%)
76.22% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.945...-0.936) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout16/1 4/1eq: -1.000 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
21.10% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
78.90% (G:1.15% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: -1.000 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
20.73% (G:0.55% B:0.02%)
79.27% (G:0.72% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 13191740
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 8/5 8/3
[ 2] 6/3 6/1
[ 1] 13/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5 8/3

There doesn’t seem to be any play that makes sense except to clear the 8 point. We don’t want to give him shots in addition to his escape-and-race chances, and we don’t want to trash our board in case he doesn’t get away and we hit on our second try. 8/5 8/3 looks clear.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 53
             
11 point match
              pip: 77
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BDBCBa-----B--a----bbcf-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross redoubles to 4.


USBGF OLM 2017-01-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 53
             
11 point match
              pip: 85
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBBBaB----B--a----bbcf-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:68.31% (G:3.23% B:0.07%)69.82% (G:3.69% B:0.08%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:31.69% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)30.18% (G:0.55% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.397+0.867
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.392 (-0.194)±0.004 (+0.389..+0.396)
played Double/Take:+0.586±0.007 (+0.580..+0.593)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.414)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13191740
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] Double
[ 2] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

Or market loss on the hit/fan sequences is huge, and we lose our market also if we hit and he enters with an ace and we’re set up well to attack. (Maybe even if we’re not, given how weak his board is.) Since we start off with 24 hitting rolls and a top-five board, we are missing a good opportunity to increase our position’s positive equity if we don’t double now. Sure, we’ll be unhappy if we miss, but we were going to be unhappy if we missed anyway. Kick the rock!

Neil Kazaross takes.

A fine, high volatility action double by the USBGF Members. But, of course, a trivial take for me. 1/3 of the time I am missed and I can recube most of those times. I might rarely steal a win after being hit and will be unlikely to lose a gammon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 53
             
11 point match
              pip: 85
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBBBaB----B--a----bbcf-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 66
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACBBBbB----B-A----b-cce-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.xgRollout18/5 8/2eq: +0.345
Player:
Opponent:
58.96% (G:9.10% B:0.27%)
41.04% (G:1.22% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.339...+0.352) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 21 seconds
2.playedRollout115/6eq: +0.290 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
57.81% (G:7.51% B:0.24%)
42.19% (G:1.05% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.283...+0.297) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13191740
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 15/6
[13] 8/5 8/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5 8/2

His odds of leaving a shot have increased a lot because of losing his last non-breaking 5 on this turn. So, let’s consider what will happen if he rolls one of them. As before, they play much better if he can leave two blots vs. just our midpoint, but be ready to pick up if missed. That suggests staying back on the 15 may be stronger, especially considering how badly his 52 and 51 will then be forced to play–it’s depressing even thinking about it >> And of course, owning the 2 point will make our lives easier if we do hit him, so that factor favors making it now.

Another reason to like clearing the 8 point is that it makes his 61 especially bad! (Why would we want to block it, Chuck?) This may be a “viglet” because it only affects 2/36 rolls, but it sure is a big swing when it happens. More from the Dept. of Viglets: If he does hit us with that 44, we might enter on the 4 point and give him some further grief. If we vamoose and he rolls the 44, he just doubles us out the next turn.

Are all these factors favoring staying back worth the 62 and 53 that hit us? In this case, I’m not even counting the 44 because we’d prefer to be hit if he rolls it. I say yes they are, especially given that we will often have some “life after death” after these four hits, even if we don’t hit a return shot.



Neil Kazaross: 11 5/4(2) 3/1
USBGF Members: 31 6/2
Neil Kazaross: 63 18/9


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 53
             
11 point match
              pip: 85
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBBBaB----B--a----bbcf-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 72
             
11 point match
              pip: 101
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBCbB----B-A---ab-cdc-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout115/14 6/4eq: +0.356
Player:
Opponent:
57.51% (G:9.64% B:0.42%)
42.49% (G:2.71% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.348...+0.364) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout115/14 4/2eq: +0.302 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
56.58% (G:9.43% B:0.42%)
43.42% (G:2.79% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.295...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 54 seconds
3.playedRollout16/3eq: +0.301 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
56.63% (G:9.70% B:0.39%)
43.37% (G:3.25% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.293...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout16/4 3/2eq: +0.301 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
56.59% (G:9.90% B:0.42%)
43.41% (G:3.22% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.293...+0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 55 seconds
5.Rollout16/4 2/1eq: +0.274 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
55.76% (G:9.64% B:0.41%)
44.24% (G:3.57% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.266...+0.282) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 06 seconds
6.Rollout13/1 2/1eq: +0.269 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
55.76% (G:9.77% B:0.42%)
44.24% (G:3.43% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.261...+0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 04 seconds
7.Rollout15/2eq: +0.269 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
55.89% (G:9.59% B:0.40%)
44.11% (G:3.53% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.261...+0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 27 seconds
8.Rollout16/5 4/2eq: +0.262 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
55.74% (G:9.31% B:0.38%)
44.26% (G:3.17% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.254...+0.270) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 50 seconds
9.Rollout115/12eq: +0.251 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
56.28% (G:8.83% B:0.32%)
43.72% (G:3.06% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.244...+0.258) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 59 seconds
10.Rollout18/5eq: +0.251 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
56.20% (G:12.20% B:0.57%)
43.80% (G:6.61% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.244...+0.258) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 16 seconds
11.Rollout115/13 6/5eq: +0.199 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:
54.70% (G:8.27% B:0.29%)
45.30% (G:1.57% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.192...+0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13191740
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 6/3
[10] 15/14 6/4
[ 4] 15/13 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 15/14 6/4

Again, picking up our straggler would be the wrong concept, so we need to play 6/4 and then consider whether to come one point closer with the ace. Staying back as far as possible and continuing 4/3 with the ace is the default play, so playing 15/14 has to have some advantage(s) over just staying put, in order to fight it.

Are there any advantages from moving up? He gets four hitting shots if we move up, but the five shots he gets if we stay put includes 44, which likely also wins no matter what we do (and once again, it’s probably close as to whether or not he should hit us.) So it appears there’s not much difference there. It could matter a bit that if we move up, he’s less well placed after hitting if we enter, whether we hit back or not.

If he’s forced to run from the anchor, 15/14 gives us four additional shots besides the 6s and 1s, while staying back gives us only only three extras. As Igor noted in the discussion, 6/3 also leaves us with duplicated aces if he is forced to run, but that type of duplication is seldom important enough to swing much weight. 6/4 leaves a spare in a better spot for a future bearoff if it gets close, but that Wuggly Ump is far away.

What if the way things go, we want to add that back man to our forward position next turn? That could happen if our alternative loses our 8 point and/or weakens our board. It will be easier to move that checker to safety from the 14 than from the 15–rolls of 44, 51, 42 and 62 are especially affected.

So we are seeing several small factors, what Marty Storer calls “viglets”, favoring 15/14. Are they enough to make the play right? Yeah, probably. I voted that they do, and that 6/4 15/14 is better, but 6/3 is nondestructive and can’t be considered “bad”.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 72
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACBBBbB----B-A---ab-cdc-:0:0:-1:51:0:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/1 2/1eq: -0.301
Player:
Opponent:
42.31% (G:1.74% B:0.01%)
57.69% (G:8.60% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.308...-0.295) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 3/2eq: -0.322 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
41.87% (G:1.68% B:0.00%)
58.13% (G:8.98% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.329...-0.315) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13191740
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1 2/1.

6/1 2/1 is automatic.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 66
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACBBBbB----B-A----b-cce-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 1/20 930a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-01-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 82
             
11 point match
              pip: 109
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABCCbC----B-A--abb-ccb-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout18/2 5/3eq: -0.010
Player:
Opponent:
48.03% (G:6.25% B:0.25%)
51.97% (G:4.18% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.017...-0.003) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout115/13 8/2eq: -0.066 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
48.22% (G:5.11% B:0.16%)
51.78% (G:4.62% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.072...-0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13191740
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 8/2 5/3
[ 1] 15/13 8/2
[ 1] 8/2 6/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/2 5/3

The natural board-building play of 8/2 5/3 makes it more dangerous for him to run on quite a few of his rolls, but it comes at the cost of some risk. Leaving five shots is scary, but again let’s not count 44 since: a) it was a likely game-winner anyway, and b) he might not even be supposed to hit us with it, since he’d doing so would risk our hitting back with a 43, which he’d have to trade off against our rolling a 66 or 55 and getting back into the race.

But not leaving the shots involves the harder-to-measure risk of opportunity cost. If we play safe, 15/13 8/2, leaving two blots in our home, he can run double-jump off the anchor with midsized rolls such as 54, 53 and 52 rather than bust his board. Then even if we hit, we may cover only one of our homeboard blots and end up losing anyway. If we decide to leave the shots, of course we get hit with the 53, but we make the 54 and 52 much nastier for him. I think we should build our board, 8/2 5/3, and see what happens next.

BTW in similar situations to what Neil would have if we played safe, when you either choose or are forced to run with a 54: It will usually be better to double-jump them both, leaving 20 shots and two blots, rather than run with just one, leaving 24 shots (6s and 1s) but only one blot. Worrying too much about gammons, and also not looking ahead to how easy or difficult it will be to clean up next turn, can lead to a wrong move in these situations.

And speaking of 54, kudos to Kaz for not hitting with the 54. I think most players, myself included, would have hit it almost automatically in the flow of a game.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 82
             
11 point match
              pip: 101
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBCbB----B-A--abb-ccb-:0:0:-1:64:0:0:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout17/1 6/2eq: -0.370
Player:
Opponent:
41.40% (G:2.24% B:0.01%)
58.60% (G:9.71% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.378...-0.361) - [100.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout17/1 5/1eq: -0.415 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
40.21% (G:2.12% B:0.01%)
59.79% (G:9.97% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.423...-0.406) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13191740
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/1 6/2.

I surely can’t blot, so I have to use my saved 6 for 7/1. After that, I slightly prefer 6/2 as experience has taught me to not break a more interior point in a nearly vain attempt to save a bit more timing unless massively ahead in the race and even then it is unclear.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 72
             
11 point match
              pip: 101
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBCbB----B-A---ab-cdc-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10