USBGF OLM 2019-08-21

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-EBC---bC---eaeB-----:0:0:1:00:5:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[35] No Double
[ 4] Double


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: No Double

At this match score almost everything is a cube if only we could lose our market next roll, because Neil’s takepoint (around 30%) is higher than for money. Nevertheless, early cubes like this one require considerable gammon chances in order to fit this bill. Since Neil holds the anchor on our 4 point, gammons are far away. He will still have a take even after we hit his blot, no matter how the next sequence will look like. We can assume that he will at least get one winning shot after we hit and this represents more than 30% winning chances which necessary to take.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-EBC---bC---eaeB-----:0:0:1:61:5:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 8/23 245p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-08-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-EBC---bCaa-d-e----B-:0:0:1:22:5:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout124/20(2)eq: +0.240
Player:
Opponent:
53.68% (G:7.78% B:0.26%)
46.32% (G:8.01% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.232...+0.249) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout124/22(2) 7/5(2)eq: +0.033 (-0.208)
Player:
Opponent:
47.90% (G:8.03% B:0.31%)
52.10% (G:12.01% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.023...+0.042) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 7/5(2)eq: +0.011 (-0.230)
Player:
Opponent:
47.37% (G:9.04% B:0.35%)
52.63% (G:15.58% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.001...+0.020) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
4.Rollout124/22 13/11 7/5(2)eq: +0.007 (-0.233)
Player:
Opponent:
46.97% (G:9.66% B:0.35%)
53.03% (G:15.26% B:1.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.002...+0.017) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79419524
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 24/20(2)
[ 2] 24/22(2) 7/5(2)
[ 1] 24/22 13/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20(2)

When our opponent has an advanced anchor, we need one too. This forces Neil to do something about the blots on his 10 and 11 points. Lastly, it means that the spares on his 6 point cannot be used to make his 5 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-EBC---bCaa-d-eB-----:0:0:-1:42:5:9:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 11/7 10/8.

I’m pretty sure that the best play for money is just to make my 4 point. But I am not 100% certain. Making the 4 point is more gammonish for both sides, but I don’t want to steer for positions like that at this score since that harms my use of the cube. I think among the best two plays that don’t make my 4 point is 13/11 10/6 which, while blocking 6’s, looks awkward. Therefore, I think 11/7 10/8 is a bit better and it only leaves 11 shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-EBC---bC---eaeB-----:0:0:1:00:5:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 8/23 830a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-08-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-EAC---cDaa-c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:5:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout113/7eq: +0.127
Player:
Opponent:
48.77% (G:12.68% B:0.54%)
51.23% (G:16.80% B:2.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.117...+0.138) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout18/7 6/1* eq: +0.050 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
46.72% (G:12.32% B:0.51%)
53.28% (G:17.14% B:2.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.039...+0.061) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 35 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79419524
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 13/7
[ 8] 8/7 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7

We should just play 13/7 covering the 7 point and creating a three prime. The nice thing about the resulting position is that we have a spare on the 8 point which can be used for making new inner board points.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-EBC---cCaa-c-e----B-:0:0:-1:53:5:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout124/21 13/8eq: -0.113
Player:
Opponent:
49.97% (G:14.97% B:1.66%)
50.03% (G:9.04% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.123...-0.103) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout110/5 8/5eq: -0.147 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
51.61% (G:18.48% B:2.56%)
48.39% (G:14.31% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.157...-0.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79419524
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 13/8.

I will play according to the score and anchor. This cuts down on the number of gammonish cubes I may have to face soon while leaving only seven fly shots. If this were a money game, I’d make my 5 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-EBC---bCaa-d-e----B-:0:0:1:22:5:9:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 8/22 630p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-08-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:5:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout113/7* eq: +0.148
Player:
Opponent:
48.63% (G:13.58% B:0.54%)
51.37% (G:16.96% B:3.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.136...+0.160) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout18/7* 6/1* eq: +0.120 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
47.67% (G:14.33% B:0.49%)
52.33% (G:18.00% B:3.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.109...+0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 30 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 13/7*
[14] 8/7* 6/1*
[ 1] 13/8 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7*

Some players like to double hit here with 8/7* 6/1*, but this is overkill. The problem is that we strip the 8 point so that we can only cover with a checker from the 13 point. If however we hit 13/7*, then we can cover with the spare on the 8 point as well as a checker from the 13 point.

Also if we are missed, and do not roll a 6 or 1, we can make and inner board point with other rolls.

I recommend 13/7*; it is good to know the correct replies to opening rolls, and even better to understand why they are correct.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/7*

Hitting is a must in order to obtain the initiative. If we had one more checker in the zone we should play 8/7* 6/1*. With only eight checkers in the zone, this “double tiger” is too weak. It is better to bring one more checker down to enhance the power of future attacks.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 165
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----EAC---dD-a-c-e----B-:0:0:-1:42:5:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/11eq: -0.355
Player:
Opponent:
47.45% (G:14.92% B:2.05%)
52.55% (G:16.48% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.366...-0.344) - [51.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/23 13/9eq: -0.355 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
47.47% (G:15.54% B:2.12%)
52.53% (G:16.94% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.367...-0.344) - [47.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 24/22eq: -0.369 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
46.64% (G:13.50% B:1.74%)
53.36% (G:16.09% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.380...-0.358) - [1.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/21 10/8eq: -0.380 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
46.47% (G:13.73% B:1.49%)
53.53% (G:16.19% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.391...-0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 13/11.

The normal play with this poor shot is b/21 13/11. Several alternatives are close and every play has some flaws. I don’t see any major reason to deviate at this score this early in the game, so I will make the normal play in hopes that it still is best.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-EAC---cDaa-c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:5:9:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 25
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----C-D-BB---B-----A-bcbdA:1:1:1:65:5:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.xgRollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -2.057
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:96.44% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.057...-2.057) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 55 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/14eq: -2.058 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:96.59% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.059...-2.058) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/20 19/13eq: -2.059 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:96.60% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.059...-2.058) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/19 13/8eq: -2.060 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:96.71% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.060...-2.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/14
[ 8] b/20 13/7
[ 3] b/20 19/13
[ 1] b/19 13/8


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/20 13/7

Kimon’s commentary here

General principles for gammon saving are avoid wasting pips, by playing over the six point into the home board, diversification of the checkers in the outfield and when almost all checkers are borne in, that crossovers become more important than saving pips. Place a checker on the 7 point was for me not amongst these principles until last OLM game where I learned it from a similar position.

Now what is the checker on the 7 point good for? Probably it makes sure a bear-in-cross-over even with the smallest number.

Next question would be when to make use of it. I checked with the position resulting from our move. This position offers an alternative cross over for the ace with 13/12. However XG plays 51 20/15 7/6.

So the answer in terms of a wild guess might be to make use of it, whenever we roll an ace.



Neil Kazaross: 42 4/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 51 19/14 13/12
Neil Kazaross: 41 4/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 31 13/12 9/6
Neil Kazaross: 63 3/0(2)
USBGF Members: 52 14/9 8/6
Neil Kazaross: 53 3/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 32


Neil Kazaross wins four points and leads 2-away/6-away.



Neil Kazaross: 63 24/18 13/10


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:5:9:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--C-D-BB--aB---bbdbAb-A-:0:0:-1:00:5:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.62% (G:31.61% B:1.33%) 64.95% (G:33.18% B:1.46%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.38% (G:9.83% B:0.85%) 35.05% (G:10.60% B:1.60%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.549 +1.172
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.657 (-0.267)±0.010 (+0.647..+0.667)
played Double/Take:+0.924±0.019 (+0.905..+0.942)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.076)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] Take
[11] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

In terms of Race, Position and Threat, Neil has a slight advantage in Race, more than average advantage in position and he has threats. He also wins a high number of Gammons as we will have several checkers far from home if we end up on the bar.

In our favour is the fact we own the 9 and 4 points and Neil does not have his 13 point any more. If he points on us, he may have to leave a blot on either or both of his 8 and 7 points.

I might let this go over the board but thinking about it with a lot more time than when playing, I think this is a take.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: Take

Neil has a big double with considerable gammon chances. Still he has three open points and two checkers back. We have a developed position and all checkers in place for a counterattack or prime if we survive his attack. At this even match score, it’s a clear take.



Neil Kazaross: 42 8/4* 6/4
USBGF Members: 54 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--C-D-BB--aB---abcbbb-AA:1:1:-1:42:5:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout124/20 13/11eq: +0.950
Player:
Opponent:
79.32% (G:42.93% B:1.95%)
20.68% (G:4.60% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.943...+0.957) - [55.4%]
Duration: 37 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout17/1* eq: +0.949 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
76.19% (G:53.21% B:1.12%)
23.81% (G:6.96% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.944...+0.955) - [44.5%]
Duration: 38 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout124/20 8/6eq: +0.939 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
78.32% (G:44.06% B:2.00%)
21.68% (G:4.75% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.933...+0.945) - [0.1%]
Duration: 34 minutes 54 seconds
4.Rollout124/18eq: +0.925 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
78.30% (G:43.44% B:2.06%)
21.70% (G:5.69% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.919...+0.932) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 13/11.

This is a two part problem. First of all, I have to decide which of three reasonable non hitting plays is best. 24/20 13/11 looks normal and I think it is a bit better than 24/20 8/6 or 24/18. Now the real question becomes one of game plan, as 7/1* is a strong try for a gammon, noting that I have 12 checkers in the attack zone and good diversification. My Gammon Value at 6-away/6-away is slightly more than for money, giving this play a bit more appeal. I’d pound 7/1* for sure if this were a near gammon go score, but here I fear that their two point board and outfield points can result in quick turnarounds. However, the best way to minimize their turnarounds is to close them out!

It has been said that “When in doubt make the DMP play” so I will wimp 24/20 13/11.



USBGF Members: 43 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 119
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--CaD-BB---Ba--abcbbb-AA:1:1:-1:44:5:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout124/20 7/3 5/1*(2) eq: +1.210
Player:
Opponent:
81.93% (G:62.13% B:0.63%)
18.07% (G:3.53% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.206...+1.215) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout124/20 11/7 5/1*(2) eq: +1.144 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
80.85% (G:58.87% B:0.56%)
19.15% (G:3.70% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.138...+1.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout124/20 8/4 5/1*(2) eq: +1.121 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
80.08% (G:58.21% B:0.52%)
19.92% (G:3.76% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.115...+1.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 7/3 5/1*(2).

Now it is time to switch points and get into full blitz mode, noting that I have 13 checkers in the zone, making a closeout very likely. Therefore, I start with 5/1*(2). Then I’ll play 24/20 to minimize chances of an accident on their side of the board. Next comes 7/3 leaving a well diversified array of builders for both open points.



USBGF Members: 62 b/23


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----CbD-BB---Ba--aac-bcAbA:1:1:-1:54:5:5:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout17/2* 6/2eq: +1.326
Player:
Opponent:
85.15% (G:64.99% B:0.38%)
14.85% (G:2.28% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.321...+1.330) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout120/15 6/2* eq: +1.089 (-0.237)
Player:
Opponent:
79.08% (G:59.87% B:0.58%)
20.92% (G:6.11% B:1.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.084...+1.094) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout111/2* eq: +0.983 (-0.343)
Player:
Opponent:
76.56% (G:54.50% B:0.44%)
23.44% (G:4.71% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.977...+0.988) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout18/4 7/2* eq: +0.890 (-0.436)
Player:
Opponent:
74.72% (G:50.58% B:0.40%)
25.28% (G:5.07% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.885...+0.896) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 09 seconds
5.Rollout120/11eq: +0.754 (-0.572)
Player:
Opponent:
71.30% (G:46.98% B:1.19%)
28.70% (G:6.60% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.748...+0.760) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/2* 6/2.

Pointing on them is much better than worrying about a few crashing sequences or the fact that I now have a wasted checker on my 3 point.



USBGF Members: 33 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----CbD-BB---Ba--a-b-bcbbB:1:1:-1:43:5:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout111/4eq: +1.174
Player:
Opponent:
82.27% (G:57.99% B:0.28%)
17.73% (G:2.60% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.169...+1.179) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout18/1eq: +1.096 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
80.17% (G:56.26% B:0.24%)
19.83% (G:3.23% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.091...+1.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout111/7 8/5eq: +1.064 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
78.50% (G:57.42% B:0.33%)
21.50% (G:4.04% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.059...+1.070) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/4.

We see how even a modest collection of opposing points can be annoying, as I have to bury a second checker. I must remain as diversified as possible, so 11/4 allows me to hit on the 5 point with 3’s that don’t escape should they enter. Also 44 and especially 33 play less worse next roll.



USBGF Members: 22 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 87
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----CbD-BB---B---a-b-ccbbB:1:1:-1:51:5:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout120/14eq: +1.465
Player:
Opponent:
89.30% (G:67.15% B:0.34%)
10.70% (G:1.06% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.461...+1.469) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout120/15 8/7eq: +1.409 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
87.89% (G:65.74% B:0.32%)
12.11% (G:1.44% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.405...+1.413) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 32 seconds
3.Rollout120/15 3/2eq: +1.402 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
87.69% (G:65.81% B:0.32%)
12.31% (G:1.49% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.398...+1.406) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 58 seconds
4.Rollout120/15 4/3eq: +1.377 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
87.27% (G:64.51% B:0.30%)
12.73% (G:1.53% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.373...+1.381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/14.

This is automatic, as I am happy to run with a 5 and then 15/14 turns a crashing 33 into a closeout joker.



USBGF Members: USBGF Members: 54 b/20


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----CaD-BB-a-B---a-bAccbbA:1:1:-1:51:5:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout120/14eq: +1.071
Player:
Opponent:
82.18% (G:48.36% B:0.28%)
17.82% (G:2.14% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.066...+1.076) - [99.9%]
Duration: 25 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout120/15 14/13eq: +1.060 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
80.78% (G:51.16% B:0.32%)
19.22% (G:2.68% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.055...+1.065) - [0.1%]
Duration: 25 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout114/8eq: +1.031 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
80.98% (G:47.46% B:0.29%)
19.02% (G:1.77% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.027...+1.036) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/14.

It is important to get out of their board. So I prefer 20/14 over 14/8. Other plays are possible and I’d consider taking more risk at Gammon Go.



USBGF Members: 11 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 75
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----C-D-BB-b-B---a-bAccbbA:1:1:-1:54:5:5:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout114/5* eq: +1.488
Player:
Opponent:
88.71% (G:71.30% B:0.41%)
11.29% (G:1.50% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.484...+1.492) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout114/10 14/9eq: +1.327 (-0.161)
Player:
Opponent:
87.19% (G:59.61% B:0.32%)
12.81% (G:1.15% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.323...+1.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/5*.

Now I hit loose hoping to finish the job.



USBGF Members: 63 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----C-D-BB-a-B---a-baccbbB:1:1:-1:32:5:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/5 3/1eq: +1.896
Player:
Opponent:
96.60% (G:88.89% B:0.61%)
3.40% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.894...+1.899) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 4/2eq: +1.880 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
96.29% (G:88.17% B:0.59%)
3.71% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.877...+1.882) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 3/1.

3/1 is best keeping the spare on the 4 point to reduce chances to be forced to blot soon.



Neil Kazaross: 66 14/2 6/0(2)
USBGF Members: 43 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 37
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----C-D-BB---B------bcbccB:1:1:-1:32:5:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout14/1 2/Offeq: +1.982
Player:
Opponent:
97.44% (G:94.09% B:1.02%)
2.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.981...+1.984) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 5/2eq: +1.960 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
97.46% (G:92.95% B:0.47%)
2.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.959...+1.962) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 4/1 2/0.

The gammon is almost a lock if I don’t get hit. Clearing leaves 6 blotting rolls but is really safe if I don’t get hit as a result. Bearing off leaves no blotting rolls now, but can lead to trouble later. Experience has shown that 6 extra blotting rolls is too much.



USBGF Members: 64 b/19
Neil Kazaross: 52 5/3 5/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 25
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----C-D-BB---B-----A-bcbdA:1:1:1:65:5:5:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 8/21 745a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-08-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-E-BB--aB---bbdb-b-B-:0:0:1:32:5:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout113/11 13/10eq: -0.879
Player:
Opponent:
32.42% (G:9.44% B:0.85%)
67.58% (G:23.03% B:2.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.894...-0.864) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 6/4eq: -0.907 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
35.09% (G:9.88% B:0.80%)
64.91% (G:31.86% B:1.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.921...-0.893) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
3.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: -0.912 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
33.13% (G:9.11% B:0.91%)
66.87% (G:25.22% B:2.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.928...-0.895) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
4.XG Roller++9/4eq: -1.000 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
29.96% (G:7.99% B:0.32%)
70.04% (G:22.42% B:1.96%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/21 6/4
[10] 13/11 13/10
[ 2] 9/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 6/4

Even though we are behind in the race, with Neil having 12 checkers in the zone, we need to split. Neil has a priming structure that we cannot afford to get trapped behind. We either need to escape one checker or anchor on Neil’s 4 point.

If Neil attacks us he may have to give up either his 7 or 8 points which will give us return shots.

The only sensible 2 is the non-blotting 6/4.

We have to split now before Neil brings the checker on his 13 point into the zone.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/11 13/10

Splitting is normally a racing play and therefore not first choice as an offensive play since we are down in the race.

We have to look out for a reasonable alternative play which might be 13/11 13/10. This would be our first choice if Neil had not have established his bar point yet. Then we would play for a counter prime, having a better timing. The split, on the contrary, would expose us to the risk of a lucky but strong attack with 12 checkers in the zone. If we survive the attack, we would still be down in the race and cannot really benefit from our racing play. If we succeed with our counter priming play we will have best winning chances regardless of the race. Easy choice.

Neil having the bar point brings us to a kind of paradox: His stronger board makes it more appealing to split and expose our back checkers to a stronger attack. Just for the same reason that makes his attack is stronger now through diversified builders and better blocking structure the defensive value of the split increases more than the additional risk connected to it. In other words: The stronger Neil’s board becomes, the higher is our desire to escape for defensive reasons; i.e. to escape the prime.

Over the board we should understand that splitting wins more games than the priming play because the latter is a weak attempt. Due to our puny 2 point board Neil will comfortably split or run his back checkers and we will have to attack. We then either may get hit or we lose our timing in a priming battle where our structure is considerably weaker than Neils.

The only problem with the split is that we lose more gammons of course.

In a money game when the other guy has still three points open, I always go for the play that brings more wins in a position like this, here in particular because I would like to keep the midpoint, but the rollout may prove me wrong.

In a 6 point match avoiding a gammon is of high importance and this could give reason to opt for the “safe” priming play.

After all this is a very difficult and close decision on a position that may well serve as reference position. Getting is right over the board is more matter of luck than of skill.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--C-D-BB--aB---bbdbAb-A-:0:0:-1:00:5:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-08-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-E-B--AcC---b-db-b-B-:0:0:1:42:5:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/9 11/9eq: -0.375
Player:
Opponent:
41.67% (G:13.57% B:0.91%)
58.33% (G:20.12% B:1.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.387...-0.364) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: -0.415 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
40.82% (G:13.74% B:0.81%)
59.18% (G:21.70% B:1.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.425...-0.404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 13/9 11/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/9 11/9

Making the 9 points leaves no blots and makes a useful point.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/9 11/9

Make the 9 point “and hit the clock” (see below). 13/9 6/4 is more flexible and gives more chances to make the 5 point if we get not hit. After the recommended play we make the 5 point with 10 rolls and after the flexible play with 15 rolls. But we get hit with 6 rolls. And the 15 rolls do only work in the 30 cases when we do not get hit. This totals in 450/1296 or 12.5/36 chances to make the 5 point next roll. Thus we pay for additional 2.5/36 chances with 6 shots after which we are almost lost. That is a bad deal.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-E-BB--cB---b-db-b-B-:0:0:-1:33:5:5:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/7(2)eq: +0.570
Player:
Opponent:
61.83% (G:21.78% B:1.73%)
38.17% (G:12.18% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.557...+0.583) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
2.Rollout18/2(2)eq: +0.219 (-0.351)
Player:
Opponent:
54.47% (G:19.60% B:1.74%)
45.53% (G:14.61% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.209...+0.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7(2).

A nice roll to make my bar point at the cost of some somewhat duplicated ace shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-E-BB--aB---bbdb-b-B-:0:0:1:32:5:5:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-AAcC--ab-eb---B-:0:0:1:64:5:5:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout110/4 8/4eq: -0.261
Player:
Opponent:
44.43% (G:14.37% B:0.98%)
55.57% (G:19.52% B:1.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.273...-0.250) - [90.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 11/7eq: -0.273 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
44.86% (G:13.95% B:0.94%)
55.14% (G:19.59% B:1.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.287...-0.260) - [9.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] 10/4 8/4
[12] 13/7 11/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 11/7

If we make the 4 point with 10/4 8/4 then we will have a stripped 8 point and it will not be easy to make more points in a potential prime.

If we make our 7 point with 11/7 13/7, then we will have three active builders on our 10, 8 and 6 points which we can use to make the 5 or 4 points. This increased ability to extend our solid three prime makes this my choice.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/7 11/7

Making the bar point or a home board point is clearly better than running into a single shot with 24/14 or split and down with 24/18 13/9. We answer Neil’s priming attempts with a counter prime. This is always reasonable, and by making a point we create a permanent asset that is more valuable than even running to safety with 65. The distribution after making the 4 point is a little better than after making the bar point. The latter play leaves us with a stripped midpoint and no additional homeboard point. In general, we prefer to establish a high inner point (5 or 6) rather than making the bar point, but after making the bar point, our priming structure is better since we can establish a 4 prime by adding one further point next roll. After both plays we do not have real bad numbers. For example we can play 6´s by running. Is a close decision. Since our game plan is to counter prime should go for the play that primes best.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-E-B--AcC--ab-eb---B-:0:0:-1:63:5:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout19/3 6/3eq: +0.262
Player:
Opponent:
55.36% (G:20.16% B:1.41%)
44.64% (G:14.39% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.251...+0.272) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.Rollout124/15eq: +0.047 (-0.215)
Player:
Opponent:
51.82% (G:16.97% B:1.28%)
48.18% (G:18.62% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.035...+0.059) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross to play 63.

Making my 3 point is automatic with this useful roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-E-B--AcC---b-db-b-B-:0:0:1:42:5:5:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:32:5:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout124/22 13/10eq: -0.212
Player:
Opponent:
45.85% (G:12.25% B:0.61%)
54.15% (G:18.07% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.223...-0.201) - [98.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
2.playedRollout113/11 13/10eq: -0.230 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
45.52% (G:13.41% B:0.75%)
54.48% (G:18.45% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.243...-0.217) - [1.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
3.Rollout113/11 8/5eq: -0.252 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
45.12% (G:13.32% B:0.65%)
54.88% (G:19.28% B:1.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.266...-0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
4.Rollout124/21 13/11eq: -0.260 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
45.11% (G:12.07% B:0.67%)
54.89% (G:18.81% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.272...-0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 13/11 13/10
[13] 24/22 13/10
[ 5] 24/21 13/11
[ 1] 13/11 8/5
[ 1] 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 13/10

This is the standard reply to 43 Down, 32 – we need to split 24/22 13/10. This duplicates Neil’s 65 which can be played 9/3* 8/3 with the already good 10/4 9/4.

I believe in learning the standard replies to openings, but to also understand why they are correct.



Neil Kazaross: 53 10/5 8/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-AAcC--ab-eb---B-:0:0:1:64:5:5:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 8
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-FCBA-------------af-:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

1.Rollout18/5 7/1eq: -1.342
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.50% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.342...-1.342) - [98.6%]
Duration: 0.7 second
2.playedRollout18/5 8/2eq: -1.342 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.51% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.342...-1.342) - [1.4%]
Duration: 1.1 seconds
3.xgRollout19/3 8/5eq: -1.343 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.59% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.343...-1.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.7 second
4.Rollout19/6 7/1eq: -1.345 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.79% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.345...-1.345) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.9 second
5.Rollout19/6 8/2eq: -1.345 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.80% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.345...-1.345) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.7 second
 
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 8/5 8/2
[17] 9/3 8/5
[ 4] 8/5 7/1
[ 2] 9/6 8/2
[ 1] 9/6 7/1


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/5 7/1

Filling the gap on the 5 point is obvious.

Now let us look out for bad combinations. Three straight 21’s might be such a combination. It fails to bear off after 9/3 8/2 and after 7/1. Nothing worse out there.

So these plays are equal? Not sure! Let us look out for the good combinations too.

XG dislikes 9/3 8/5 by 0.001 since we lose 0.1% more gammons. So what is the combination? Mmhhhh… 21 11? Does not work after any combination. Phew! Ah, I see! 31 11 will not bear off in two rolls after 9/3 7/1.

If you would not find this over the board, don’t worry. I know at least one player who probably would miss it too. If you find it, the equity gain in an average tournament would probably be consumed by the cost of the extra calories you will need in order to compensate for the brain power you had to invest in order to find this solution.



Neil Kazaross: 44 2/0 1/0(3)
USBGF Members: 65 9/4 7/1
Neil Kazaross: 21 1/0(2)
USBGF Members: 42

Neil Kazaross wins a gammon and four points. The match is tied 6-away/6-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:43:5:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedBook113/10 13/9eq: +0.012
Player:
Opponent:
49.73% (G:14.98% B:0.75%)
50.27% (G:13.41% B:0.74%)
2.Book124/21 13/9eq: +0.004 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
49.90% (G:13.73% B:0.64%)
50.10% (G:13.04% B:0.56%)
3.Book124/20 13/10eq: +0.001 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
50.06% (G:13.38% B:0.61%)
49.94% (G:13.37% B:0.57%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 13/9.

I usually play 43 13/10 13/9 but at a tie score like this 43 24/21 13/9 is just as good.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:32:5:5:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 12
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-FBB----AA--------cf-:1:1:1:65:5:1:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout114/9 13/7eq: -1.380
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:33.93% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.381...-1.380) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.9 second
2.Rollout114/9 8/2eq: -1.393 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:35.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.393...-1.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.9 second
3.Rollout114/8 13/8eq: -1.396 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:35.30% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.396...-1.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.0 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 14/9 13/7
[10] 14/8 13/8
[ 1] 13/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 14/9 13/7

Let’s go with diversification and play 14/9 13/7 as we want to get a checker on our 5 point to guard against the very small chance or Neil rolling a couple of doubles and we never getting a checker on our 5 point and then losing a Gammon because we roll a 5.

If in doubt, diversify when you are bearing in without contact — it gives more choices.



Neil Kazaross: 53 2/0(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 8
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-FCBA-------------af-:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 16
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-EABA---BA-------acg-:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/7 9/6eq: -1.438
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.439...-1.437) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1.9 seconds
2.xgRollout114/11 13/7eq: -1.442 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.43% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.443...-1.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.0 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 8/5eq: -1.443 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.55% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.444...-1.442) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.2 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: -1.445 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.68% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.446...-1.444) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.1 seconds
5.Rollout114/8 9/6eq: -1.447 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.86% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.447...-1.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.8 seconds
6.Rollout114/5eq: -1.447 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.90% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.448...-1.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.6 seconds
7.Rollout114/8 13/10eq: -1.447 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.93% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.449...-1.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.7 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 13/7 9/6
[ 5] 14/5
[ 5] 14/11 13/7
[ 4] 13/7 8/5
[ 3] 14/8 9/6
[ 2] 14/8 13/10
[ 2] 14/8 7/4


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/7 9/6

Two crossovers, no wasted pips. 13/7 8/5 would be my co-favourite since it fills the gap on the 5 point. The rollout shows that it does not really matter how you play unless you waste pips without filling the gap on the 5 point.



Neil Kazaross: 31 3/0 1/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 12
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-FBB----AA--------cf-:1:1:1:65:5:1:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 24
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-EAB----B-A---Aa-bcg-:1:1:1:65:5:1:0:11:10
to play 65

1.Rollout119/14 13/7eq: -1.480
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:42.80% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.480...-1.479) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
2.Rollout115/10 13/7eq: -1.483 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.484...-1.483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
3.Rollout219/8eq: -1.484 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.23% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.485...-1.483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12.3 seconds
4.Rollout213/8 13/7eq: -1.485 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.30% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.486...-1.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14.5 seconds
5.playedRollout219/14 15/9eq: -1.485 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.31% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.487...-1.483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12.2 seconds
6.xgRollout215/9 13/8eq: -1.485 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.32% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.486...-1.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13.1 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 19/14 15/9
[ 8] 19/13 15/10
[ 3] 15/10 13/7
[ 1] 19/8
[ 1] 19/13 7/2
[ 1] 15/9 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 19/14 13/7

The 5 should be played 19/14 diversifying our outfield checkers.

The 6 is more interesting. The correct move is 13/7. We need to ensure we have more than one 1 so we can play 7/6 getting the final crossover efficiently. I call a crossover the final crossover if it puts a checker into your home board.

If we alter the original position by moving a checker from the 6 point back to the 7 point then we have two final crossovers with 1’s already and 15/9 becomes the correct move.

But if we take the original position and move a checker 8/7 giving us two final crossovers with 1’s, 13/7 stays the correct move! It seems that having four checkers able to make a final crossover is important.

A very interesting position.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 19/14 15/9

Two cross overs, best diversification.



Neil Kazaross: 54 5/0 3/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 16
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-EABA---BA-------acg-:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 40
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-DBB----B-----Bcbbce-:1:1:1:41:5:1:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout119/15 7/6eq: -1.479
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:42.71% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.479...-1.478) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 11 seconds
2.xgRollout113/9 7/6eq: -1.481 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:42.91% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.482...-1.480) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout219/15 13/12eq: -1.487 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.44% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.489...-1.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 31 seconds
4.Rollout213/12 13/9eq: -1.488 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.51% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.490...-1.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 22 seconds
5.Rollout219/18 13/9eq: -1.490 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.71% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.492...-1.487) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds
6.Rollout219/18 19/15eq: -1.492 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.94% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.495...-1.490) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 00 second
7.Rollout219/14eq: -1.503 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:44.85% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.504...-1.501) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds
8.Rollout219/15 3/2eq: -1.504 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:44.97% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.505...-1.502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 29 seconds
9.Rollout213/9 3/2eq: -1.505 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:45.11% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.507...-1.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 52 seconds
10.Rollout219/15 8/7eq: -1.508 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:45.35% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.509...-1.507) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 28 seconds
11.Rollout213/9 8/7eq: -1.509 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:45.39% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.510...-1.507) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 14 seconds
12.Rollout213/8eq: -1.511 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:45.60% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.512...-1.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 04 seconds
13.Rollout213/9 6/5eq: -1.520 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:46.45% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.522...-1.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 10 seconds
14.Rollout219/15 6/5eq: -1.521 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:46.54% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.523...-1.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 32 seconds
15.Rollout28/4 7/6eq: -1.524 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:46.73% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.525...-1.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 12 seconds
16.Rollout213/12 8/4eq: -1.530 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:47.33% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.532...-1.528) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 21 seconds
17.Rollout219/18 8/4eq: -1.534 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:47.65% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.536...-1.532) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 19/15 7/6
[ 5] 19/18 13/9
[ 3] 19/18 19/15
[ 3] 19/15 13/12
[ 1] 13/9 7/6
[ 1] 19/18 8/4
[ 1] 8/4 7/6
[ 1] 13/12 8/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/9 7/6

The most important part of this roll is the 1 – as long as we play 7/6 getting another checker into our home board we have done the right thing.

Next either 13/9 or 19/15 is acceptable. I have a slight preference for 13/9 as it aims another checker at our 5 point which increases our chances of putting a checker on it.



Neil Kazaross: 44 5/1(2) 4/0(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 24
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-EAB----B-A---Aa-bcg-:1:1:1:65:5:1:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 8/14 830a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-08-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 48
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--DCB---aB-----AbbbceA:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/19 7/4eq: -1.121
Player:
Opponent:
10.82% (G:0.74% B:0.02%)
89.18% (G:33.60% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.126...-1.117) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/19 8/5eq: -1.133 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
10.56% (G:0.74% B:0.02%)
89.44% (G:34.24% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.137...-1.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/19 6/3eq: -1.183 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
10.07% (G:0.67% B:0.02%)
89.93% (G:37.45% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.186...-1.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] b/19 7/4
[12] b/19 8/5
[ 5] b/19 6/3



Neil Kazaross: 53 13/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 40
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-DBB----B-----Bcbbce-:1:1:1:41:5:1:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DAC---bC-b-bbdbA--A-:1:1:1:61:5:1:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout124/23 13/7eq: -0.516
Player:
Opponent:
32.17% (G:8.93% B:0.66%)
67.83% (G:25.54% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.521...-0.510) - [94.8%]
Duration: 59 minutes 01 second
2.playedRollout113/7 8/7eq: -0.522 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
31.15% (G:8.89% B:0.57%)
68.85% (G:24.05% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.528...-0.517) - [5.2%]
Duration: 58 minutes 48 seconds
3.Rollout124/23 7/1* eq: -0.581 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
28.00% (G:7.11% B:0.29%)
72.00% (G:21.81% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.587...-0.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
4.Rollout113/7 6/5eq: -0.613 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
30.15% (G:8.47% B:0.49%)
69.85% (G:29.25% B:1.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.619...-0.607) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
5.Rollout18/1* eq: -0.620 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
28.45% (G:7.50% B:0.30%)
71.55% (G:25.04% B:2.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.625...-0.614) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 13/7 8/7
[17] 24/23 13/7
[ 4] 13/7 6/5
[ 1] 8/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 13/7

Whatever we do with the 1, we will be playing 13/7 with the 6 so let’s move that then decide on the 1 – this is exactly what I would do over the board.

6/5 is too big, as we do not want to slot when we are split and about to be attacked.

8/7 does not improve our position in any significant way. It does not harm, but also does no good either.

24/23 freezes Neil’s checkers on the 8 point so that if he attacks us and breaks his 8 point, we will have more return shots. This is the move that I like.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/7 8/7

We should discard any hitting play. It would be a more a tempo hit. It leaves us with three blots around and if we get hit we lose our racing chances which are still good. Better to make the bar point and keep two game plans alive, which are the running game and priming Neil´s remaining checker.

The contenders are 13/7 8/7 and 24/23 13/7. The latter is defensive. It somehow freezes Neil’s checkers on the 8 point as builder for his 5, 3 or 2 point, since the remaining checker would be under additional attack by our checker on the 23 point. But it is defensive and having an offensive alternative we should opt for the offensive play in case of doubt. 13/7 8/7 helps us making the 4 point or the 5 point with 23, 43 and 21. Freezing his checker will affect his rolls 31, 53 and 65. Anyhow, Neil should run with 64 and 54 and of course hit on the 4 point with 32 and 42. Since the analysis comes to the same number of affected roll by the offensive and defensive play, I would opt for the offensive play which is 13/7 8/7.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DCB---bB-b-bbdbA--A-:1:1:-1:66:5:1:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout110/4*(2) 7/1*(2) eq: +1.167
Player:
Opponent:
79.13% (G:58.87% B:0.50%)
20.87% (G:4.48% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.162...+1.171) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout110/4*(2) 8/2(2)eq: +0.938 (-0.229)
Player:
Opponent:
76.57% (G:42.96% B:1.09%)
23.43% (G:4.50% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.933...+0.943) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout113/1* 10/4*(2) eq: +0.899 (-0.268)
Player:
Opponent:
74.34% (G:44.92% B:0.87%)
25.66% (G:5.98% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.894...+0.904) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout113/7(2) 10/4*(2) eq: +0.755 (-0.412)
Player:
Opponent:
73.46% (G:32.50% B:1.37%)
26.54% (G:4.72% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.750...+0.760) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4*(2) 7/1*(2).

A crushing shot when I have 12 checkers in the zone, turning the game into a blitz.



USBGF Members: 65 no play
Neil Kazaross: 22 6/2(2)
USBGF Members: 43 b/22


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 102
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DCB---bB---b-bbbAbbA:1:1:-1:55:5:1:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout113/3*(2) eq: +1.801
Player:
Opponent:
93.74% (G:83.94% B:0.55%)
6.26% (G:0.40% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.799...+1.803) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout113/3* 8/3(2)eq: +1.795 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
93.73% (G:83.45% B:0.53%)
6.27% (G:0.37% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.794...+1.797) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/3*(2).

13/3*(2) looks to be best here, as I don’t gain anything by remaining with a checker on the midpoint nor by adding a spare to my 3 point. I also don’t want to have to open my board with 11.



Neil Kazaross: 55 8/3(2) 6/1(2)
USBGF Members: 61 b/19


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 62
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DCB----B-----AbbdbdA:1:1:-1:11:5:1:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout124/23 3/2 3/1eq: +0.321
Player:
Opponent:
58.24% (G:27.67% B:0.09%)
41.76% (G:3.90% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.315...+0.327) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout13/1(2)eq: +0.274 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
56.91% (G:26.53% B:0.10%)
43.09% (G:4.35% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.268...+0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 3/2 3/1.

Breaking the board is unthinkable. Therefore I play 3/2 3/1 and must decide upon the final ace. I went through all of my next rolls for both plays and stepping and retaining a spare ace was clearly best 11 times whereas staying back was clearly best only 7 times.



USBGF Members: 42 no play
Neil Kazaross: 52 23/16
USBGF Members: 44 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 51
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--DCBa---B-----AbbbceA:1:1:-1:21:5:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout116/13eq: +1.454
Player:
Opponent:
90.09% (G:61.20% B:0.05%)
9.91% (G:0.57% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.449...+1.458) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout116/14 2/1eq: +1.342 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
87.24% (G:57.36% B:0.07%)
12.76% (G:0.76% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.338...+1.347) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/13.

This play is almost universally automatic, as both plays leave two shots, so I bring my straggler closer to home.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 48
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--DCB---aB-----AbbbceA:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DAC---bC-b-bce-A--A-:0:0:-1:00:5:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.25% (G:19.25% B:0.84%) 65.45% (G:19.35% B:0.81%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.75% (G:8.64% B:0.37%) 34.55% (G:8.89% B:0.41%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.411 +0.885
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.700 (-0.070)±0.010 (+0.690..+0.710)
played Double/Take:+0.770±0.012 (+0.758..+0.782)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.230)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] Take
[12] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

First we have to ask ourselves what is the cube action for money, then adjust for the score.

For money, this isn’t quite a double, but it must be close. Neil has a small race lead, we have the better board and Neil has threats. Neil has 12 checkers in the attack zone. But we do have the better board and if hit with a 6 we could anchor. For money, all the counter play makes this a No Double.

At this score where Neil is 10 away and we are 6 away, this must be a double, but this is still an easy take.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: Take

I don’t think this could be pass since Neil has not established a further homeboard point yet. The fact that were are up 6-away/10-away brings no change. When being up in the match our concern are gammons or high cubes. The take point for non gammonish 2 cubes does hardly change.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

They rolled a poor shot and since I think this is probably into doubling range in a money game, I am certainly doubling at this score.



Neil Kazaross: 21 7/5 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DAC---bC-b-bbdbA--A-:1:1:1:61:5:1:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---bD-b-bce----AA:0:0:1:64:5:1:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/7eq: -0.766
Player:
Opponent:
34.56% (G:9.02% B:0.54%)
65.44% (G:19.59% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.779...-0.753) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 8/2eq: -0.935 (-0.169)
Player:
Opponent:
32.55% (G:8.14% B:0.52%)
67.45% (G:22.01% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.947...-0.923) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] b/21 13/7
[ 4] b/21 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 13/7

We only have two possible 6’s – 8/2 or 13/7. As long as we have a spare on the 13 point, we should play 13/7. 13/7 duplicates 6’s and starts the 7 point which is a point we would like to have to contain Neil.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/21 13/7

13/7 is clearly better than 8/2, since it slots the stronger point even though it leaves six more shots. When everything works fine we will establish the bar point next roll and have a reasonable position, whereas the best that can happen after 8/2 is a race in which we are down with two deep points and no hope to prime Neil’s last checker.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DAC---bC-b-bce-A--A-:0:0:-1:00:5:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-08-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---cD-b-bbe--A-A-:0:0:1:62:5:1:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout124/16eq: -0.467
Player:
Opponent:
41.08% (G:10.01% B:0.49%)
58.92% (G:17.49% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.477...-0.457) - [98.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.Rollout122/16 13/11eq: -0.483 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
40.25% (G:11.14% B:0.50%)
59.75% (G:17.18% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.494...-0.473) - [1.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 13/7eq: -0.504 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
37.75% (G:9.55% B:0.42%)
62.25% (G:10.63% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.515...-0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
4.playedRollout122/14eq: -0.514 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
39.49% (G:9.73% B:0.33%)
60.51% (G:15.63% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.524...-0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
5.Rollout124/22 8/2eq: -0.519 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
37.15% (G:8.84% B:0.23%)
62.85% (G:10.40% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.530...-0.509) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 22/14
[11] 24/22 13/7
[ 8] 24/16
[ 1] 24/22 8/2
[ 1] 13/5


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/16

I musst admit that this XG++ result came as a kind of surprise to me after having thought shortly about the position. Over the board I might have played 24/22 13/7.

How can it be right to forego an anchor and make a play that exposes one checker to a double shot and the other checker to the attack of 11 of Neil’s checkers ?

I found two main reasons: 13/7 is ugly because of 17 hits and because it does not bring so much if the blot is not be hit due to our lack of additional points. In addition, the anchor on the 22 point is deep and Neil threatens to prime our back checkers.

By playing 24/16, we escape the prime and keep connectivity between our last checkers, hoping to make the 16 point later. In addition, the checker on the 16 point helps to contain Neil’s checker on our 1 point. It covers part of our outfield and increases our shots considerably if Neil’s back checker escapes to our outboard.

Since Neil has no additional home board point yet, we can take some chances by forgoing the anchor and going for the bigger goal, which is escaping his prime and controlling the outfield.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---cDAb-bbe----A-:0:0:-1:00:5:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60.67% (G:15.32% B:0.51%) 60.70% (G:15.77% B:0.54%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.33% (G:9.70% B:0.41%) 39.30% (G:9.96% B:0.43%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.263 +0.573
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.507±0.010 (+0.497..+0.518)
     Double/Take:+0.432 (-0.076)±0.013 (+0.419..+0.445)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.493)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

This is what I call a position that threatens to become a double. Neither side has accomplished very much and while I have some advantage I need a joker sequence to justify cubing.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---cDAb-bbe----A-:0:0:-1:42:5:1:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/11* 11/7eq: +0.632
Player:
Opponent:
63.43% (G:16.24% B:0.69%)
36.57% (G:9.18% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.622...+0.643) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 13/11* eq: +0.575 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
62.28% (G:15.25% B:0.71%)
37.72% (G:10.16% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.564...+0.587) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11*/7.

13/11*/7 is clear, since if I hit and step up I am subject to many annoying hits when outboarded. After my safe play, hoping to retain the initiative, I can consider a score-based cube if they roll poorly from the bar.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---bD-b-bce----AA:0:0:1:64:5:1:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:5:1:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout124/22 13/8eq: -0.297
Player:
Opponent:
44.40% (G:11.19% B:0.60%)
55.60% (G:13.67% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.308...-0.285) - [51.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 6/1* eq: -0.297 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
44.26% (G:12.19% B:0.55%)
55.74% (G:13.80% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.308...-0.286) - [48.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/22 13/8
[12] 24/22 6/1*
[ 1] 13/11 6/1*
[ 1] 13/6
[ 1] 13/8 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 13/8

In New Zealand the Jacoby rule is not used in money games. The disadvantage is when I play in a chouette overseas I have to get used to it. The advantage is that without the Jacoby rule, money play is more like match play. Another advantage is I tend to notice when the second roll replies are different with or without Jacoby. There are not many but there are a few, and 63 split, 52 is one of those cases.

With 64 24/18 13/9, then a 52 to play, it is correct in both cases to play 24/22 6/1* as your opponent’s builder on their 9 point is so powerful.

With a 62 24/18 13/11 then a 52 to play, it is correct in both cases, I would play 24/22 6/1* but without Jacoby splitting 24/22 13/8 is exactly equal and with Jacoby it is only 8 milli points behind so it is effectively a good choice.

With a 63 24/18 13/10 then a 52 to play, with Jacoby the hit or split are exactly equal, but without Jacoby 24/22 13/8 is correct by 18 milli points. So in the match we are playing without Jacoby, and we are ahead so want to be a bit more cautious, so we should play 24/22 13/8. But it is so close that I would not argue with a doubles partner who wanted to hit.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/22 13/8

For money it is borderline with hit and split playing 24/22 6/1*. This play wins slightly more gammons and loses a little more games. Since we are up in the match winning is more important than winning a gammon (the gammon price goes down the more we are up). Thus we chose the play that brings more wins. Interesting is that according to XG++ the recommended play loses 0.1% more gammons. The reason might be that Neil has more chances to build his board what increases his gammon chances more than the chance to hit a blot and send it 24 pips back.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaD---dD-a-c-e--A-A-:0:0:-1:62:5:1:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout118/10eq: +0.308
Player:
Opponent:
56.49% (G:11.69% B:0.41%)
43.51% (G:10.15% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.298...+0.317) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 6/4eq: +0.285 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
55.03% (G:13.91% B:0.52%)
44.97% (G:11.06% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.275...+0.296) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout124/18 10/8eq: +0.256 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
55.16% (G:10.82% B:0.32%)
44.84% (G:9.00% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.247...+0.266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes
4.Rollout124/18 13/11eq: +0.235 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
54.14% (G:12.33% B:0.37%)
45.86% (G:10.68% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.225...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/10.

I stress that good players should try to know most of the third roll continuations to openings they usually play. Since I always split an opening 63 and since 52 splitting is a common response (quite a few players don’t want to hit on the ace point even though rollout shows that it basically is a coin flip decision), I know that making the 10 point is best for money. This creates a safe a sound outfield position where I am somewhat ahead in the race and have one checker back vs. their two. Now the only roll that they can beneficially hit me with is 55. I can look forward to rolling something useful next turn as I shouldn’t be on the bar.

Making my 4 point is an option as well, and might be best at Gammon Go, but we aren’t yet at an extreme score, so I will go with the play that should win the most games. I can also anchor 24/18, but then 13/11 leaves too many shots and 10/8 seems too static.



USBGF Members: 53 8/3 6/3
Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---cD-b-bbe--A-A-:0:0:1:62:5:1:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--cBBBB-B---aB---cacb--BbA:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 76.52% (G:34.03% B:2.28%) 76.45% (G:34.34% B:2.67%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 23.48% (G:7.03% B:0.31%) 23.55% (G:7.19% B:0.31%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.831 +1.633
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.964 (-0.036)±0.010 (+0.954..+0.974)
     Double/Take:+1.326 (+0.326)±0.015 (+1.311..+1.341)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] Double
[ 8] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

How much things have changed in this sequence. We now hit with entering 1’s and Neil has a third checker back.

Neil does not have much timing, as he has lost his midpoint and in fact, even the rolls where we stay on the bar lose our market! The only rolls that do not lose our market are 62, 44 and 33 which still have positive equity.

We easily have a net nine market losers that O’Hagan’s Law say we need, and must be very close to being Too Good to Double.

We should double and I expect Neil to pass.


Neil Kazaross passes.

My position is much worse than last turn. Now I have a third checker back, and they have 14 shots. If they hit either blot, I can look forward to hoping to save the gammon. This is a big pass.


USBGF Members win one point and lead 6-away/10-away.



Neil Kazaross: 63 24/18 13/10

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:5:1:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 133
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBB-B---bB---cacb--BbA:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.98% (G:22.21% B:1.44%) 64.24% (G:22.18% B:1.52%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.02% (G:12.50% B:0.54%) 35.76% (G:12.73% B:0.54%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.390 +0.746
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.459±0.011 (+0.448..+0.470)
     Double/Take:+0.279 (-0.180)±0.015 (+0.264..+0.295)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.541)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] No Double
[ 9] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

For money, using O’Hagan’s Law if we have nine net market losers and are doing ok on the other rolls, we should double.

Our market losers are the hitting rolls 54, 53, 52, and 43. Also, maybe 22. That gives us nine market losers, but we need to subtract any anti market losers, which are any roll we roll after which Neil can double us, whether we have a take or not is irrelevant. Although Neil does not have a redouble after any of our rolls even 62 (bar/23 13/7) we are not doing ok here with a lot of rolls – the nine rolls we stay on the bar, as well as 44, 33, 62, 41 and 32. So, overall we should not be doubling here for money but it would be close.

So, since this is not a double for money, then we should not be doubling here with our 7 away 10 away lead in the match.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: No Double

This is a very deceptive position.

The general criteria for an initial cube seem to be fulfilled. Our position is better, we threaten to improve up position considerably before we roll again and we will still be the favourite in case we will not be able to execute a threat.

XG says is a small no double for money and here is my guess why:

Due to the fact that we have three checkers in Neil’s home board we will only be a small favourite in case we won’t hit. We may even be underdog when we fan and Neil has a good number like 15 or 55. In addition, after we hit and Neil enters he will have only a small or clear but no big pass.

As a general rule we may assume that it is in most cases neither a double nor a pass when the guy on roll has three checkers in the opponents home board in a prime versus prime position.

Knowing that is no double for money we know that it is even bigger no double when we are up in the match.



USBGF Members: 52 b/18*
Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23 13/7*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--cBBBB-B---aB---cacb--BbA:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aa-CD-BA--dB---b-dbA-AaA:0:0:1:22:4:1:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 6/4(2) 5/3* eq: +0.377
Player:
Opponent:
60.32% (G:25.22% B:1.57%)
39.68% (G:13.93% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.361...+0.394) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 6/4(2)eq: +0.235 (-0.143)
Player:
Opponent:
56.83% (G:20.84% B:1.12%)
43.17% (G:12.62% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.223...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] b/23 6/4(2) 5/3*
[15] b/21 6/4(2)
[ 1] b/23 13/11 13/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 6/4(2) 5/3*

The first three 2’s are easy – Bar/23 6/4(2) giving us a stronger board.

Offense or Defence, i.e. 23/21 or 5/3*? In general offense comes before defence and here we have 11 checkers in the zone, a stronger board, an anchor, more checkers back and Neil has an inner board blot. Those of you who know Paul Magriel’s Safe vs Bold Criteria will see that every one of his guidelines says play boldly, and playing boldly here means attacking with 5/3*.

Yes we are ahead in the match, which means we should be a bit more cautious, but not here.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/23 6/4(2) 5/3*

Offence vs. defence?

Bar/21 6/4(2) looks good and safe. Does it bring more equity than the recommended offensive play brings? The answer would be in the affirmative if Neil had a stronger attack. i.e. more builders in the zone and if at the same time our attack would be weaker. When in doubt always go for the offensive play since it helps winning the game whereas the defensive play only protects you from losing the game prior to maturity.

In this particular case the “safe” play is not that safe because Neils can hit our checker on the 9 point with 15 rolls. So hitting loose on the 3 point does not give much more shots than Neil has anyway, but it makes escaping much more difficult for him and he might even dance. Of course this results in more wins and more gammons for us compared to the “safe” play. Due to his weak attack and due our anchor on the 2 point, we should not risk too many additional gammons.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aABBB-BA--dB---b-dbA-Ba-:0:0:-1:52:4:1:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 6/1eq: -0.316
Player:
Opponent:
39.49% (G:13.48% B:0.50%)
60.51% (G:20.26% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.328...-0.303) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.400 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
38.14% (G:12.40% B:0.46%)
61.86% (G:20.53% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.412...-0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 6/1.

I am happy to be able to enter, and happy to be able to cover my ace point.



USBGF Members: 63 21/18 9/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 144
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBB-B---dB---bAcb--Bb-:0:0:-1:65:4:1:0:11:10
to play 65

1.xgRollout123/18 13/7* eq: -0.441
Player:
Opponent:
37.45% (G:12.39% B:0.53%)
62.55% (G:28.89% B:1.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.452...-0.431) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
2.playedRollout113/8 13/7* eq: -0.470 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
35.73% (G:12.35% B:0.48%)
64.27% (G:22.05% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.480...-0.459) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 13/7.

I hit 13/7* and then have a difficult 5. Positionally, I’d like to come out 23/18, but this means that I am getting hit by most of their entering rolls, and I think that is too much to risk when the have a 4 point board. I’ll wimp with the prudent 13/8 and hope to be missed, and then build a new blocking point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 133
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBB-B---bB---cacb--BbA:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a--BD-Ba-AdC---b-ebA-AA-:0:0:1:64:4:1:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout113/9* 11/5eq: -0.108
Player:
Opponent:
49.37% (G:17.86% B:1.02%)
50.63% (G:16.64% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.113...-0.103) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 08 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 13/9* eq: -0.124 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
50.07% (G:15.45% B:0.87%)
49.93% (G:18.51% B:1.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.128...-0.119) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 00 minute
3.Rollout221/15 13/9* eq: -0.145 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
49.93% (G:16.33% B:0.93%)
50.07% (G:18.85% B:1.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.157...-0.133) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
4.Rollout213/9* 8/2* eq: -0.162 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
48.31% (G:19.36% B:0.85%)
51.69% (G:19.57% B:1.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.174...-0.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
5.Rollout28/2* 6/2eq: -0.190 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
46.66% (G:18.22% B:0.67%)
53.34% (G:16.44% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.202...-0.179) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
6.Rollout213/7 11/7eq: -0.209 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
47.50% (G:14.47% B:0.69%)
52.50% (G:17.37% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.220...-0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
7.Rollout213/9* 9/3eq: -0.289 (-0.181)
Player:
Opponent:
46.46% (G:15.57% B:0.83%)
53.54% (G:20.22% B:1.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.301...-0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
8.Rollout221/11eq: -0.298 (-0.190)
Player:
Opponent:
44.99% (G:12.16% B:0.55%)
55.01% (G:16.20% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.309...-0.287) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 13/9* 11/5
[ 8] 21/15 13/9*
[ 8] 13/9* 8/2*
[ 5] 8/2* 6/2
[ 3] 13/7 11/7
[ 1] 24/18 13/9*
[ 1] 21/11


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/9* 11/5

I would dismiss making the 2 point quickly – we only have nine checkers in the zone and having three checkers in Neil’s board makes this unattractive.

So we have to hit 13/9*. How to play the 6?

8/2* lets Neil hit from the bar so is too big.

21/15 connects the checkers so I would not argue with this in a chouette, 24/18 does the same and again I would not argue with this in a chouette.

The play I like is 11/5, after which we have 10 checkers in the attack zone. If we do not move it, then the checker on the 11 point is bearing on the 5 point which is already made. We will have one of Neil’s checkers on the bar, and will be ready to attack.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/9* 11/5

First question is if we want to hit or make the bar point. The latter brings a permanent asset and the merits of such asset add up every consecutive roll.

The downside is that Neil has already escaped one checker and we fail to send it back. Escaping one checker is a big achievement in the early stages and vice versa sending it back brings great advantage.

We have similar two point boards. A good structure but still four points open and not too many builders so getting hit back does not cost too much. We can afford to take some chances if that’s justified by the reward.

The possible reward can be summarized as follows:

More gammons, gain of a tempo (Neil has to use half of his roll to enter and cannot improve his position further to possibly making an anchor), racing advantage. In addition after any hitting play will have ample builders in the zone and probably will be able to establish further points soon whereas it will be more difficult to seen back another checker of Neil after we make the bar point.

This all boils down to hit 13/9*.

Let us find the 6. 24/18 gives (too?) many return shots. 21/15 seems better but is disconnects our back checkers. At the same time the checker on the 21 point is only under moderate attack.

11/5 keeps connectivity on Neil’s side of the board an brings an important builder to the zone for the continuation of our attack.

Interesting that XG seems to like 8/2* 6/2 quite well.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-a--CD-BA--dB---b-ebA-AA-:0:0:-1:53:4:1:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 6/1* eq: +0.042
Player:
Opponent:
48.83% (G:16.79% B:1.04%)
51.17% (G:19.29% B:1.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.028...+0.055) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.026 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
48.04% (G:15.03% B:0.93%)
51.96% (G:20.33% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.038...-0.015) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 23/18eq: -0.072 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
47.46% (G:15.18% B:1.23%)
52.54% (G:23.06% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.084...-0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 6/1*.

I notice their array of builders aimed at me. I also notice my big stack on my 6 point. Both of these factors mean that I should strongly consider 6/1* as a tempo play. I think the fact that they dance 11% of the time is enough to make this correct.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aa-CD-BA--dB---b-dbA-AaA:0:0:1:22:4:1:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:21:4:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.277
Player:
Opponent:
45.92% (G:12.48% B:0.75%)
54.08% (G:16.80% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.288...-0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout124/21eq: -0.305 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
45.47% (G:11.71% B:0.66%)
54.53% (G:16.79% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.316...-0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 24/22eq: -0.331 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
44.75% (G:11.21% B:0.54%)
55.25% (G:16.96% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.341...-0.320) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 24/23 13/11
[ 5] 24/21
[ 1] 24/23 24/22


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 13/11

The standard reply here is just 24/23 13/11, and being ahead in the match I see no reason to alter our reply, so let’s stick with 24/23 13/11.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C--AdD--ac-e---AA-:0:0:-1:43:4:1:0:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout124/20 23/20eq: +0.324
Player:
Opponent:
55.60% (G:14.22% B:0.47%)
44.40% (G:8.66% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.320...+0.328) - [98.3%]
Duration: 17 hours 12 minutes
2.playedRollout19/5 8/5eq: +0.317 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
54.82% (G:17.75% B:0.72%)
45.18% (G:11.96% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.313...+0.322) - [1.7%]
Duration: 14 hours 03 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/5 8/5.

At this score, I felt my opening 41 was a close decision, since the trailer benefits from increased mutual gammon chances. Had I been a point or two further behind, I’d have slotted. Here with this 43 I face a similar decision. I am rather sure that it is slightly best for money to just grab the 20 point anchor. Therefore the decision is likely very close at this score. I also want a longer and more complicated game in this setting when I am clearly behind in the match. This makes me want to make my 5 point here, although it does still leave me stacked on the 6 point and strips my 8 point. However, I am not leaving a bunch of fly shots as I would if I anchored.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 64 24/14*
USBGF Members: 42 b/21 13/11*
Neil Kazaross: 63 b/16


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a--BD-Ba-AdC---b-ebA-AA-:0:0:1:64:4:1:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AABC-B---eC---bbdBb-A--:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.58% (G:9.13% B:0.23%) 75.36% (G:8.06% B:0.22%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.42% (G:3.39% B:0.08%) 24.64% (G:3.19% B:0.13%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.548 +1.122
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.941 (-0.059)±0.005 (+0.936..+0.946)
xg Double/Take:+1.024 (+0.024)±0.009 (+1.015..+1.033)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Pass
[22] Take


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

My 61 has improved my game by adding an additional landing point.


Neil Kazaross wins one point. The USBGF Members lead 7-away/10-away.



Neil Kazaross: 41 24/23 13/9


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:21:4:1:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-AD-C---eC---bbdBb-A--:0:0:1:32:4:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/5 6/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
24.78% (G:3.35% B:0.14%)
75.22% (G:8.11% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 6/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
24.14% (G:3.05% B:0.10%)
75.86% (G:7.63% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
3.Rollout113/11 8/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
24.15% (G:3.11% B:0.13%)
75.85% (G:7.93% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
4.Rollout123/20 13/11eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.10% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
79.90% (G:2.40% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
5.Rollout123/20 5/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.23% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
79.77% (G:2.76% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
6.Rollout123/20 6/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.15% (G:1.12% B:0.04%)
79.85% (G:2.59% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 8/5 6/4
[ 6] 13/11 8/5
[ 3] 13/11 6/3
[ 1] 23/20 6/4
[ 1] 23/20 5/3
[ 1] 23/20 13/11


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 6/4

We need to cover 8/5 with the 3, then as we are unlikely to get a shot now so we should slot 6/4 to quickly build our board.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/5 6/4

Build our board and wait for a shot. No need to think of avoiding being attacked, avoiding being forced to leave the anchor or saving the gammon by playing 23/20 at this stage.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AABC-B---eC---bbdBb-A--:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-07-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=------E-D---fC---c-dBb-A--:0:0:1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout18/3 6/5eq: -0.742
Player:
Opponent:
31.21% (G:5.31% B:0.17%)
68.79% (G:9.61% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.751...-0.733) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: -0.767 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
30.37% (G:4.89% B:0.12%)
69.63% (G:9.04% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.777...-0.757) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.Rollout18/7 8/3eq: -0.789 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
29.91% (G:5.00% B:0.17%)
70.09% (G:9.28% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.799...-0.779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
4.Rollout113/7eq: -0.791 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
29.54% (G:4.59% B:0.28%)
70.46% (G:8.45% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.801...-0.780) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout18/2eq: -0.827 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
29.20% (G:4.49% B:0.16%)
70.80% (G:9.21% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.837...-0.816) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 34 seconds
6.Rollout123/22 8/3eq: -0.855 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
27.99% (G:3.69% B:0.15%)
72.01% (G:7.70% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.864...-0.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
7.Rollout16/5 6/1eq: -0.869 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:
28.09% (G:4.28% B:0.11%)
71.91% (G:9.12% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.879...-0.859) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
8.Rollout123/22 13/8eq: -0.878 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
27.41% (G:3.09% B:0.10%)
72.59% (G:7.28% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.887...-0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 8/3 6/5
[10] 13/8 6/5
[ 6] 23/18 6/5
[ 1] 23/22 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/5

We are playing a holding game. To win a holding game you need to:

  • Get a shot,
  • Hit the blot,
  • Contain the hit checker.

The first two on the list require some luck, but make sure when you achieve them, you have a good solid board or prime waiting for that hit checker. The best way to get that board or prime is to slot the points you want then cover them.

The 1 should be played 6/5, starting the 5 point.

The 5 is more interesting, We should avoid 13/8 here as it strips the 13 point, so 8/3 has to be correct. If we had another checker on the 13 point we might play 13/8.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/3 6/5

Build our board as quick as possible. Stripping the midpoint is bad as is running off the 23 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-AD-C---fC---c-dBb-A--:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.97% (G:9.37% B:0.29%) 69.12% (G:9.19% B:0.29%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.03% (G:5.29% B:0.16%) 30.88% (G:5.27% B:0.23%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.419 +0.859
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.744±0.003 (+0.741..+0.748)
xg Double/Take:+0.737 (-0.007)±0.004 (+0.733..+0.742)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.256)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:99.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 hours 11 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

Up 24 pips and behind in the match, I have a few market losing sequences here, but just a few. Often if I improve somewhat they may take next turn. I’ll just roll.



Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-AD-C---eC---bbdBb-A--:0:0:1:32:4:0:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-D---fD---b-d-bA-A-:0:0:1:41:4:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.528
Player:
Opponent:
38.93% (G:9.34% B:0.47%)
61.07% (G:16.24% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.532...-0.524) - [98.7%]
Duration: 11 hours 24 minutes
2.xgRollout113/8eq: -0.535 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
38.81% (G:8.83% B:0.41%)
61.19% (G:16.73% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.539...-0.531) - [1.3%]
Duration: 11 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout26/1* eq: -0.587 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
37.37% (G:8.73% B:0.29%)
62.63% (G:15.97% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.594...-0.580) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 48 minutes
4.Rollout224/23 22/18eq: -0.591 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
38.37% (G:8.21% B:0.47%)
61.63% (G:19.26% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.598...-0.584) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 37 minutes
5.Rollout213/9 6/5eq: -0.611 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
38.74% (G:9.56% B:0.67%)
61.26% (G:21.48% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.620...-0.602) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 24/23 13/9
[ 5] 13/9 6/5
[ 5] 24/23 22/18
[ 5] 13/8
[ 2] 6/1*
[ 1] 22/18 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 13/9

The only 4 that looks good to me is 13/9. This creates a builder which will be hopefully used in conjunction with a checker from our 8 point.

I would not slot 6/5, as that just diversifies Neil’s numbers. 9/8 stacks the 8 point and removes the builder, so I will go with 24/23.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/23 13/9

We are down in the race, Neil has already escaped one checker and he has a stronger board. We want to catch up by building homeboard points, and we should take chances to do so now, while he has not yet too many checkers in his homeboard zone. 13/9 diversifies our builders for homeboard points and 24/23 lets us escape with a 5 even though escaping is of least priority because we are trailing. Our game plan is rather attacking or priming. If we get hit we will probably be able to enter and to establish an anchor.

Slotting is “split and slot”, which in general too dangerous. It tries to achieve too many goals at the same time.

I did a rollout for this match score because XG showed me very often that playing 13/8 is best, obviously because it is safer. The result was 0.005 difference. Nothing! Conclusion: Is my above consideration is worthless? I do not think so. Whatever you play you should have your reason for it. It may be right, wrong or like in this case borderline but when you have a reason you have best chances to pick the right play.

So my reason helped me to pick a play that is best and even though I did not expect 13/8 to be borderline. My further policy for situations like this is as follows: When the opponent has split checkers in my homeboard, I rather play 13/8 because of the increased number of hits. When I am up in the race I would maybe opt for the safe play too.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-DA--fC---b-d-bAA--:0:0:-1:22:4:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout124/16* eq: +0.711
Player:
Opponent:
66.23% (G:14.23% B:0.68%)
33.77% (G:7.11% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.702...+0.721) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
2.Rollout113/9(2)eq: +0.575 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
62.33% (G:16.39% B:0.68%)
37.67% (G:9.25% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.564...+0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
3.Rollout16/2*(2) eq: +0.565 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
60.56% (G:17.75% B:0.71%)
39.44% (G:8.71% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.556...+0.573) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/16*.

24/16* gains 24 pips (16 plus the 8 I just rolled) and escapes my last checker with tempo giving me a nice advantage unless they return hit. This is better than anything else I can do.



USBGF Members: 52 b/20 22/20
Neil Kazaross: 53 16/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=------E-D---fC---c-dBb-A--:0:0:1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10