USBGF OLM 2019-02-18

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 149
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB--D-CA--eC---cae----B-:0:0:1:64:0:2:0:11:10
to play 64

1.Rollout124/18* 13/9eq: +0.628
Player:
Opponent:
63.03% (G:20.43% B:0.93%)
36.97% (G:8.13% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.623...+0.633) - [85.8%]
Duration: 11 hours 40 minutes
2.xgRollout124/18* 18/14eq: +0.624 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
62.49% (G:21.41% B:0.90%)
37.51% (G:8.59% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.620...+0.629) - [14.2%]
Duration: 10 hours 55 minutes
3.playedRollout124/18* 6/2* eq: +0.619 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
61.24% (G:25.17% B:0.83%)
38.76% (G:9.32% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.615...+0.623) - [0.1%]
Duration: 9 hours 51 minutes
4.Rollout28/2* 6/2eq: +0.589 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
59.88% (G:29.79% B:0.65%)
40.12% (G:8.40% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.579...+0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/18* 6/2*
[ 9] 24/18* 13/9
[ 5] 8/2* 6/2
[ 1] 24/22 24/18*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18* 13/9

We have to hit 24/18* to send one of Neil’s checkers back, to remove one of his builders and to take a lead in the race.

The problem I have with the double hit 6/2* is that it duplicates 6’s to anchor and to cover.

We do not want to give Neil good 6’s from the bar so 18/14 looks tempting but I like making the 9 point with 13/9. The 9 point is an asset and we should usually play offensively before we play defensively.

If Neil hits us with a 6 from the bar we will have lots of returns shots so that pushes me towards 13/9.



Neil Kazaross: 52 b/23* b/20


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB-aC-CA--eC---cAe----AA:0:0:1:33:0:2:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 80
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 47
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaEBBB-----------acbbcba-:0:0:1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/4 6/1eq: +0.863
Player:
Opponent:
93.13% (G:5.73% B:0.17%)
6.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.862...+0.863) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44.9 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 5/Offeq: +0.783 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
89.15% (G:5.74% B:0.22%)
10.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.782...+0.784) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.6 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79126210
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 6/4 6/1
[ 3] 5/3 5/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/4 6/1

Even at a normal match score the best play is 6/4 6/1. The alternative wins so few gammons that the extra risk is just not worth it. Here when Gammons are worth nothing to us, we have even more incentive to “clear from the rear and not ask questions.” 6/4 6/1 is the two second play, and looking for alternatives, there is nothing better.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 80
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 40
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaECB------------acbbcba-:0:0:-1:51:10:0:1:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/1 3/2eq: -0.854
Player:
Opponent:
7.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.70% (G:8.38% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.854...-0.854) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout17/1eq: -0.860 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
7.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.00% (G:5.36% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.860...-0.860) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds
3.Rollout17/2 6/5eq: -0.868 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
6.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.38% (G:5.36% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.868...-0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds
4.Rollout16/1 2/1eq: -0.868 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
6.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.38% (G:8.99% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.868...-0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79126210
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1 3/2.

After some consideration it has to be worth spending a pip inside my board so as not to be forced to run away with the next 6 here when I cannot lose a gammon.



USBGF Members: 64 5/1 5/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 74
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 31
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DaEC-------------abbbbcb-:0:0:-1:31:10:0:1:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout17/4 2/1eq: -0.898
Player:
Opponent:
5.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.90% (G:9.53% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.898...-0.898) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30.3 seconds
2.Rollout17/3eq: -0.899 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
5.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.96% (G:9.06% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.899...-0.899) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.5 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50445514
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/4 2/1.

Of course I wait for the hoped for shot. So I’ll play 7/4 and then I think 2/1 is a tad better than 4/3, as while I want to stay off my ace point, having the spare on my 4 point rather than the 3 may allow me to keep more points closed longer during my bearoff and also reduces my chance to blot with an awkward large roll when I bring in my outfield checker as it comes around after hitting. That is, if I end up on my 8 point and roll 54 or 64, I don’t have to blot when coming in with a spare on my 4 point.



USBGF Members: 21 4/2* 3/2
Neil Kazaross: 55 b/5
USBGF Members: 64 4/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 51 5/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 43 3/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 66 6/0(2) 5/0(2)
USBGF Members: 22 3/1(2) 2/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 42 4/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 11 1/0(4)


USBGF Members win one point, and win the match 11-0.

USBGF OLM 2019-02-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 69
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-BBDBC---------c-ccad---:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout17/3 5/3eq: +0.852
Player:
Opponent:
92.61% (G:6.67% B:0.14%)
7.39% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.851...+0.852) - [98.4%]
Duration: 18 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout17/5 7/3eq: +0.851 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
92.56% (G:7.88% B:0.16%)
7.44% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.850...+0.852) - [1.6%]
Duration: 18 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout17/1eq: +0.836 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
91.82% (G:6.14% B:0.10%)
8.18% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.835...+0.837) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24732444
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[42] 7/3 5/3
[ 4] 7/1
[ 1] 7/5 7/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/3 5/3

7/3 5/3 looks best. It leaves no shots from the bar, but still three builders to make the 2 point. We need a really compelling reason to pay now and it’s not here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 63
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-DBCBB---------c-ccad---:0:0:-1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 8/3eq: -0.849
Player:
Opponent:
7.55% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
92.45% (G:3.87% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.849...-0.848) - [97.8%]
Duration: 15 minutes 01 second
2.xgRollout1Bar/23 6/1eq: -0.849 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
7.52% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
92.48% (G:4.97% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.850...-0.849) - [2.2%]
Duration: 14 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73329388
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 8/3.

It hardly matters, but still I refuse to strip the 6 point to slot my ace point when I need to cover my 4 point and my 2 point is open.



USBGF Members: 41 7/6 7/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 91
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 58
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaEBCC----------b-ccae---:0:0:-1:11:10:0:1:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout18/7 5/4 3/2(2)eq: -0.860
Player:
Opponent:
6.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.01% (G:4.29% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.861...-0.860) - [99.8%]
Duration: 32 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout15/4 3/2 3/1eq: -0.861 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
6.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.06% (G:4.57% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.862...-0.861) - [0.2%]
Duration: 29 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout13/2(2) 3/1eq: -0.865 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.26% (G:4.49% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout18/7(2) 3/2(2)eq: -0.865 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.26% (G:4.23% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 48 seconds
5.Rollout18/7 3/2 3/1eq: -0.865 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.27% (G:4.24% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 34 seconds
6.Rollout16/4 3/2(2)eq: -0.866 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.28% (G:4.36% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 02 seconds
7.Rollout18/7(2) 5/4 3/2eq: -0.866 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.28% (G:4.20% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 30 seconds
8.Rollout18/7 3/2(3)eq: -0.866 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.28% (G:4.22% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 12 seconds
9.Rollout18/7 6/4 3/2eq: -0.866 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
6.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.29% (G:4.21% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 29 seconds
10.Rollout18/7 5/4 3/1eq: -0.867 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
6.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.34% (G:4.29% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.867...-0.866) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 40 seconds
11.Rollout15/4 3/2(3)eq: -0.867 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
6.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.36% (G:4.44% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.868...-0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 31 seconds
12.Rollout13/1(2)eq: -0.870 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
6.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.48% (G:4.56% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.870...-0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 54 seconds
13.Rollout16/4 3/1eq: -0.870 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
6.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.50% (G:4.49% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.870...-0.870) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 28 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85094473
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/7 5/4 3/2(2).

Now I can fill in my board making a 5 prime and try for a 6 prime or closed board.



USBGF Members: 65 6/0 5/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 87
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 47
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaEBBB----------aacbbcb--:0:0:-1:61:10:0:1:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/1eq: -0.840
Player:
Opponent:
8.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.98% (G:6.78% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.840...-0.839) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout17/1 2/1eq: -0.841 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
7.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.06% (G:6.70% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.842...-0.841) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout17/1 6/5eq: -0.844 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
7.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.18% (G:6.42% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.844...-0.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds
4.Rollout17/1 3/2eq: -0.844 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
7.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.18% (G:6.51% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.844...-0.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
5.Rollout18/2 6/5eq: -0.847 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
7.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.35% (G:6.45% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.847...-0.847) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
6.Rollout18/2 3/2eq: -0.850 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
7.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.52% (G:6.57% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.851...-0.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79126210
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/1.

Now with my board nearly closed I’ll slot my ace point with 8/1, as I will want a closed board if I somehow can hit a shot.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 80
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 47
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaEBBB-----------acbbcba-:0:0:1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 89
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBCCC--AA-----c-ccad---:0:0:1:55:10:0:1:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout111/1* 10/5 6/1eq: +0.812
Player:
Opponent:
90.64% (G:5.10% B:0.07%)
9.36% (G:0.31% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.811...+0.814) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout110/5 7/2(3)eq: +0.807 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
90.38% (G:3.42% B:0.01%)
9.62% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.806...+0.809) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout111/6 7/2(3)eq: +0.807 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
90.34% (G:3.15% B:0.07%)
9.66% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.806...+0.808) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24732444
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 11/1* 10/5 6/1
[ 1] 11/1 7/2(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/1* 10/5 6/1

Both the non-hitting plays that involve 7/2(3) leave Neil 2 rolls to hit us. I see no reason to allow Neil to get lucky.

I like 11/1* 10/5 6/1. It may not be pretty but Neil is on the bar. Our distribution is ok, our 5’s may be awkward but we do not leave those 2 immediate shots.



Neil Kazaross: 53 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 69
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-BBDBC---------c-ccad---:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 97
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBBCB-AABb----c-ccab---:0:0:1:62:10:0:1:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout111/5 9/7eq: +0.830
Player:
Opponent:
91.54% (G:6.87% B:0.14%)
8.46% (G:0.30% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.828...+0.832) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout111/9 11/5eq: +0.825 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
91.28% (G:7.29% B:0.26%)
8.72% (G:0.26% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.823...+0.827) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout111/3eq: +0.822 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
91.13% (G:7.55% B:0.20%)
8.87% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.820...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout111/5 6/4eq: +0.822 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
91.13% (G:7.68% B:0.15%)
8.87% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.820...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 45 seconds
5.Rollout110/4 9/7eq: +0.822 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
91.10% (G:7.43% B:0.10%)
8.90% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.819...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 00 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 11/5 9/7
[ 4] 10/4 9/7
[ 3] 11/9 11/5
[ 1] 11/5 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/5 9/7

In this type of situation we should not be slot the 8 point. There is no need to take an unnecessary risk – we will be up 28 pips in the race after the roll.

So we want to maximize the builders for our 2 and 1 points. 11/5 9/7 would be the two second play and I can see nothing better.

For the record, if Neil’s rearmost checker was still on our 1 point next roll, after we play 11/5 9/7 and we rolled 64, then we should attack 7/1* 5/1 making the point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 89
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBCCC--AAb----c-ccab---:0:0:-1:55:10:0:1:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout113/3(2)eq: -0.842
Player:
Opponent:
7.88% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
92.12% (G:4.69% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.844...-0.840) - [99.3%]
Duration: 6 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout113/3 8/3 6/1eq: -0.845 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
7.71% (G:0.21% B:0.00%)
92.29% (G:5.75% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.847...-0.844) - [0.4%]
Duration: 6 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 13/3 6/1eq: -0.846 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
7.71% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
92.29% (G:5.55% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.847...-0.844) - [0.3%]
Duration: 6 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout113/3 8/3(2)eq: -0.847 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
7.65% (G:0.26% B:0.01%)
92.35% (G:4.98% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.848...-0.845) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24732444
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/3(2).

Here I play 13/3(2), following my general principle in a position like this to stay off my ace point until better points are closed.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 89
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBCCC--AA-----c-ccad---:0:0:1:55:10:0:1:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Tue 2/12 700p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-02-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--BBBCB----dBB--b-bcab---:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/11 13/9eq: +0.754
Player:
Opponent:
87.82% (G:19.72% B:0.37%)
12.18% (G:1.12% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.751...+0.757) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout114/8eq: +0.702 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
85.28% (G:21.62% B:0.63%)
14.72% (G:2.05% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.699...+0.705) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout114/10 6/4eq: +0.698 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
85.05% (G:19.43% B:0.75%)
14.95% (G:1.80% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.695...+0.700) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 18 seconds
4.Rollout113/7eq: +0.696 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
84.98% (G:21.59% B:0.56%)
15.02% (G:1.82% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.693...+0.699) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 01 second
5.Rollout114/10 13/11eq: +0.691 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
84.85% (G:19.00% B:0.34%)
15.15% (G:2.70% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.688...+0.694) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 16 seconds
6.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: +0.681 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
84.27% (G:19.87% B:0.74%)
15.73% (G:2.21% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.678...+0.684) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 55 seconds
7.Rollout17/5 7/3eq: +0.632 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:
81.81% (G:22.30% B:0.27%)
18.19% (G:2.40% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.629...+0.635) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 13/11 13/9
[ 2] 7/5 7/3
[ 1] 14/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 13/9

We have two choices here, either 14/8 or 13/11 13/9.

14/8 slots the back of the prime and if we get away with it we have a 6 prime. But 5 shots hit – 62, 21 and 22. Do we really need to do this? After the roll we will be ahead in the race by 26 pips. We could just bring checkers into our board and attack Neil’s rearmost checker if it is still there.

13/11 13/9 aims three builders at the 8 point and means that if Neil rolled a 62 from the bar and ran Bar/17, he would be coming out to a triple shot. This aims enough builders at the 8 point, especially as we are ahead in the race by so much.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 104
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--BBBCB-A-Ad-B--b-bcab---:0:0:-1:51:10:0:1:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 13/8eq: -0.772
Player:
Opponent:
11.31% (G:0.94% B:0.04%)
88.69% (G:12.90% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.775...-0.769) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 8/3eq: -0.783 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
10.80% (G:0.77% B:0.03%)
89.20% (G:13.76% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.785...-0.780) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 13/8.

I bring down another builder with 13/8.



USBGF Members: 43 14/11 14/10


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 97
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBBCB-AABc----c-bcab---:0:0:-1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/6eq: -0.833
Player:
Opponent:
8.32% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
91.68% (G:8.70% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.834...-0.832) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.836 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
8.18% (G:0.32% B:0.01%)
91.82% (G:8.17% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.837...-0.835) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout18/6 8/3eq: -0.837 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
8.12% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
91.88% (G:10.22% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.838...-0.836) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 8/3eq: -0.837 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
8.12% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
91.88% (G:9.96% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.838...-0.836) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/6.

I play 13/6, still aiming to make points in my board and hoping that they have an accident on the way to the bank.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 97
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBBCB-AABb----c-ccab---:0:0:1:62:10:0:1:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 123
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CDBB---dBB--b-cc-b---:0:0:1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout18/3* 5/3eq: +0.474
Player:
Opponent:
74.02% (G:10.28% B:0.16%)
25.98% (G:3.63% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.471...+0.477) - [100.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: +0.403 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
70.33% (G:5.36% B:0.23%)
29.67% (G:2.24% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.400...+0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 8/3* 5/3
[ 5] 13/11 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3* 5/3

After the roll if we do not hit, we will be ahead in the race by 13 pips. If we do hit it will be 16 pips.

If we make the safe play of 13/11 13/8, we risk Neil rolling a 6 (look at how 66 plays) and trying to get into the race. So the safe play does involve some risk.

Hitting 8/3* 5/3 does involve 3 return shots from the bar. It would be my 5 second play. I then looked around to find my second best play and I still like the hit. It puts Neil on the bar.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 116
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--B-BDBA---dBB--b-cc-b---:0:0:-1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 6/4eq: -0.485
Player:
Opponent:
25.45% (G:3.53% B:0.14%)
74.55% (G:11.82% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.487...-0.482) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 8/6eq: -0.497 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
24.83% (G:3.52% B:0.10%)
75.17% (G:12.19% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.500...-0.495) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/21 5/3eq: -0.505 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
24.45% (G:3.24% B:0.12%)
75.55% (G:12.13% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.508...-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/23 8/4eq: -0.527 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
23.33% (G:3.50% B:0.12%)
76.67% (G:10.57% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.530...-0.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/23 13/9eq: -0.528 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
23.34% (G:3.07% B:0.08%)
76.66% (G:10.12% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.531...-0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 6/4.

Things are going from bad to worse for me this game, but I have to think positively and I have no fear of being gammoned. If I enter on their 2 point, They are likely to make the 8 point and block me in. So I’ll enter on the 4 point and hope to not be pointed on. If I do hit a shot, I’ll want my 4 point so I’ll try 6/4 rather than breaking my 8 point.



USBGF Members: 42 8/4* 6/4
Neil Kazaross: 53 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--BBBCB----dBB--b-bcab---:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 136
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BDBB-A-eBa--bBdc-----:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout118/16 18/14* eq: +0.305
Player:
Opponent:
65.91% (G:10.99% B:0.81%)
34.09% (G:7.57% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.301...+0.308) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout118/14* 10/8eq: +0.209 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
61.29% (G:13.17% B:1.15%)
38.71% (G:9.25% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.206...+0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 18/16 18/14*
[ 8] 18/14* 10/8
[ 3] 8/4 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 18/16 18/14*

We have to hit 18/14*, this puts us ahead in the race. Then we should play 18/16 so Neil does not have good 6’s from the bar.

What about the Julius High paradox I just mentioned? Well you only want to leave the checker on the 18 point (when your opponent has 5 or more checkers on their mid-point) when you have a chance of making the 18 point i.e. you have checkers further back than the 18 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 130
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a----BDBB-A-eBA-Ab-dc-----:0:0:-1:53:10:0:1:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.436
Player:
Opponent:
27.94% (G:2.63% B:0.10%)
72.06% (G:8.28% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.439...-0.433) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 8/3eq: -0.456 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
26.97% (G:2.60% B:0.08%)
73.03% (G:8.67% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.459...-0.453) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 13/8.

13/8 should be better than breaking the 8 point to slot.



USBGF Members: 52 16/14 10/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 123
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CDBB---dBB--c-dc-----:0:0:-1:53:10:0:1:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.463
Player:
Opponent:
26.61% (G:2.54% B:0.09%)
73.39% (G:7.46% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.466...-0.460) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.486 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
25.45% (G:2.51% B:0.11%)
74.55% (G:8.88% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.489...-0.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 01 second
3.Rollout113/10 8/3eq: -0.488 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
25.35% (G:2.70% B:0.09%)
74.65% (G:9.21% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.491...-0.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout113/8 6/3eq: -0.490 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
25.28% (G:2.61% B:0.09%)
74.72% (G:8.98% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.493...-0.487) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 27 seconds
5.Rollout113/5eq: -0.490 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
25.26% (G:2.63% B:0.10%)
74.74% (G:8.59% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.493...-0.487) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 08 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/3.

Now I just make my 3 point, adding a new point to my forward structure and hoping to hit a fly shot soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 123
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CDBB---dBB--b-cc-b---:0:0:1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C---eD-a-bBcc-A---:0:0:1:66:10:0:1:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout122/10 13/7(2)eq: +0.103
Player:
Opponent:
55.78% (G:9.66% B:0.50%)
44.22% (G:6.91% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.100...+0.106) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout113/7(4)eq: -0.017 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
49.99% (G:10.78% B:1.04%)
50.01% (G:9.74% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.021...-0.013) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
3.Rollout113/1*(2) eq: -0.022 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
49.93% (G:14.98% B:0.28%)
50.07% (G:11.01% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.025...-0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 22/10 13/7(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/10 13/7(2)

We have just rolled a fantastic number so let’s use it well.

If you want to play 13/1*(2) – think again. Even for money this is wrong.

13/7(4) looks flexible and we are still slightly behind in the race. Unfortunately, our rearmost checker is in the attack zone and Neil will attack if we give him the chance – so we deny him the chance with 22/10 13/7(2). This gives us numbers to extend our prime and to attack if Neil advances his rearmost checker. If Neil hits us with 54 or 63 we will have return shots.

Overall 21/10 13/7(2) is my 2 second play but looking more closely I do not like any of the alternatives, so I will go with that.

One of my things I learned at San Antonio was that in the longer matches I finished them hardly having used any of my time bank. So from now on, I will be using Kent Goulding’s advice and asking myself ‘what is the second best play?’. That way I will force myself to consider moves other than the obvious. I should put a disclaimer here, in San Antonio I watched a match in one of the main events where the player had the game and therefore the match won. His opponent had a 23 point anchor and a collapsed home board. The player started considering a lot of combinations of where to put his outfield checkers. Sounds good but he only had 14 seconds of his time bank left. In this situation just go with the obvious play. The player unfortunately was still considering his options when he timed out.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 140
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EBC-A-eB-a-bBcc-----:0:0:-1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout124/22 10/6eq: -0.172
Player:
Opponent:
40.85% (G:5.89% B:0.26%)
59.15% (G:9.69% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.175...-0.169) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 13/9eq: -0.188 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
39.96% (G:7.20% B:0.30%)
60.04% (G:13.25% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.191...-0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
3.Rollout113/9 10/8eq: -0.193 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
39.75% (G:6.62% B:0.28%)
60.25% (G:10.84% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.196...-0.189) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
4.Rollout124/20 10/8eq: -0.193 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
39.91% (G:4.51% B:0.22%)
60.09% (G:10.44% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.196...-0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
5.Rollout110/4eq: -0.195 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
39.68% (G:6.34% B:0.25%)
60.32% (G:10.59% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.198...-0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 43 seconds
6.Rollout124/20 6/4eq: -0.196 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
39.76% (G:4.92% B:0.22%)
60.24% (G:13.21% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.199...-0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 10/6.

Their very nice 66 makes me a clear underdog now. I believe I should move my runner up so that it directly sees daylight and can escape or hit a fly shot with some rolls. 24/20 seems to be too risky with 4 builders aimed at their best point. 24/22 looks right and that means 10/6 lifting a blot.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 65 22/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 136
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BDBB-A-eBa--bBdc-----:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 169
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---bAdb-AA--:0:0:1:32:10:0:1:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout113/11* 11/8eq: -0.176
Player:
Opponent:
43.05% (G:11.42% B:1.28%)
56.95% (G:19.55% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.177...-0.174) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 41 minutes
2.playedRollout123/18eq: -0.183 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
42.21% (G:7.72% B:0.52%)
57.79% (G:15.22% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.185...-0.181) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 51 minutes
3.Rollout218/15 13/11* eq: -0.214 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
41.47% (G:11.11% B:1.46%)
58.53% (G:21.89% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.218...-0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
4.Rollout213/10 13/11* eq: -0.215 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
41.91% (G:12.38% B:1.37%)
58.09% (G:24.21% B:1.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.220...-0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 23/18 (coin flip!)
[16] 18/15 13/11*
[10] 13/11* 13/10
[ 6] 13/11*/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

I definitely like the hit 13/11*. Over the board I would not play 13/10 as it strips the midpoint and leaves a lot more return shots.

Over the board especially if I was playing Speed Gammon (which I really like) I would play 18/15 as I hate giving my opponent’s good 6’s from the bar. You cannot enter with a 6 so make it an awkward bad number for your opponent.

But after the roll we be exactly even in the race. Also years ago Julius High did some free study groups online. One of those lessons involved when to anchor on your 18 point. Essentially when your opponent has 5 or more checkers on his/her mid-point you want an anchor on your 18 point – by moving out to the 18 point with 1 checker or staying there with 1 checker. This seem counter intuitive as your opponent has more ammunition there but you have more incentive to make the 18 point. When I give lessons I call this the Julius High paradox.

So having the benefit of looking at this with more time than over the board I can see just tidying up with 11/8 has real strength. If we make the 18 point, Neil cannot prime us and it is a lot harder to blitz us.

P.S. Julius High’s study group was great. In New Zealand they started at 5 a.m. Saturday morning so I had to get up at 4:30 a.m. to be part of it, and it was worth it. I want to publicly say thank you Julius, I benefited so much from those 10 sessions.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---bBdb-A---:0:0:-1:41:10:0:1:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout114/10 6/5eq: +0.120
Player:
Opponent:
54.72% (G:14.64% B:0.52%)
45.28% (G:9.55% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.117...+0.124) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 14/13eq: +0.101 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
54.00% (G:11.43% B:0.49%)
46.00% (G:7.97% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.098...+0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 14/10eq: +0.098 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
53.64% (G:14.09% B:0.50%)
46.36% (G:9.72% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.094...+0.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
4.Rollout113/8eq: +0.085 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
53.12% (G:12.68% B:0.49%)
46.88% (G:9.33% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.082...+0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
5.Rollout124/20 6/5eq: +0.075 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
52.65% (G:11.77% B:0.53%)
47.35% (G:9.69% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.071...+0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/10 6/5.

24/20 14/13 looks like a natural play trying to escape the last checker. But it is not flexible and is too stacked. I will also be attacked on the 20 point if they can hit. I’ll go with the more complicated and flexible 14/10 6/5 which I doubt can be far wrong if it is at all. Most of their hits now come at some cost.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C---eD-a-bBcc-A---:0:0:1:66:10:0:1:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 178
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---c-e---AAA:0:0:1:63:10:0:1:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 24/18eq: -0.181
Player:
Opponent:
42.75% (G:10.34% B:1.00%)
57.25% (G:18.89% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.186...-0.177) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.195 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
42.31% (G:11.54% B:1.17%)
57.69% (G:20.50% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.199...-0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/16eq: -0.195 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
42.08% (G:10.74% B:0.88%)
57.92% (G:19.26% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.199...-0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] b/22 24/18
[ 6] b/22 13/7
[ 3] b/16


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 24/18

This is tough. I give a lesson on early game entering with a 6. Some positions obey a clear set of rules but some are really close and some are just tough. This is a tough one. By moving the checker on the 23 point to the 21 point then I would play Bar/16 due to the duplication of 4’s.

In this position, I would play Bar/22 24/18 as we come out to a double rather than triple shot (with Bar/16) and we do not reduce our 13 point to 3 (with Bar/22 13/7).

Bar/22 24/18 means that if Neil double hits, he has to hit deep in our board and he would rather double hit higher, as his 5 or 4 points are more valuable to him than his 3 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 169
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---cAe--AA--:0:0:-1:31:10:0:1:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.156
Player:
Opponent:
56.30% (G:16.20% B:0.65%)
43.70% (G:10.63% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.152...+0.159) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
2.Rollout18/7* 6/3* eq: +0.143 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
55.31% (G:18.68% B:0.96%)
44.69% (G:13.58% B:2.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.138...+0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
3.Rollout16/3* 3/2* eq: +0.123 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
54.40% (G:18.48% B:0.82%)
45.60% (G:13.26% B:1.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.118...+0.127) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 6/5.

This score is basically a DMP situation as my gammon value is small since all a gammon win does in to take away their free drop. A backgammon win would be nice but that is very unlikely. I’m virtually certain that the best DMP play is to just make my 5 point and try to then consolidate. This seems better to me with a racing lead and even if I get hit on my 14 point I should still have a slight advantage due to my 5 point. I prefer the simple plan vs adding new blots to my forward position to attack when I don’t need a gammon and when I have only a 1 point board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 169
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---bAdb-AA--:0:0:1:32:10:0:1:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 167
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:10:0:1:11:10
to play 21

1.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.017
Player:
Opponent:
50.66% (G:15.47% B:2.16%)
49.34% (G:15.72% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.021...-0.012) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.playedRollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.029 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
49.86% (G:15.12% B:1.63%)
50.14% (G:14.33% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.033...-0.025) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 24/23 13/11
[19] 13/11 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 6/5

I always just play 13/11 6/5. Here it must be a coin flip so I would do whatever my doubles partner wanted. At 2 away 4 away I also think it is a coin flip but in all cases I would just make my standard play as I am familiar with the way the game goes.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AeD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:64:10:0:1:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/14* eq: +0.111
Player:
Opponent:
53.92% (G:16.70% B:0.81%)
46.08% (G:13.81% B:1.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.106...+0.115) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
2.Rollout18/2* 6/2eq: +0.041 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
50.43% (G:18.07% B:0.70%)
49.57% (G:13.58% B:1.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.037...+0.045) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/14*.

24/14*, gains in the race, tries to escape with a checker, and sends a 3rd checker back — this is considerably stronger at any score.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 178
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---c-e---AAA:0:0:1:63:10:0:1:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 49
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 36
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCEa-------------a--cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 99.10% (G:0.09% B:0.00%) 99.10% (G:0.47% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 0.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 0.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.982 +1.498
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.995 (-0.005)±0.000 (+0.995..+0.995)
     Redouble/Take:+1.461 (+0.461)±0.000 (+1.461..+1.461)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 59.9 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] Redouble
[ 9] No Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Redouble

Now our gammon chances are so small, and we want to guard against Neil rolling an amazing sequence of doubles, so let’s redouble here. I expect Neil to pass.


Neil Kazaross passes.

Let’s assess this nearly hopeless race. They have 13 checkers and basically a speed board that can afford one miss. So sans doubles, they are off in 7 rolls. I need 18 crossovers to come home and bearoff. So that is 9 rolls assuming optimistically that I don’t miss. This means that I am MILES behind and will need them to roll poorly enough to generate two misses while at least half my rolls are useful doubles.

I doubt I can win this more than a percent or two so I have a huge pass as clearly my chances are better from 11-away/Crawford..


USBGF Members win two points, and now lead Crawford/11-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 167
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:10:0:1:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 43
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBEB-----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 98.57% (G:4.28% B:0.09%) 98.59% (G:3.74% B:0.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 1.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 1.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.994 +1.478
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+1.009±0.000 (+1.009..+1.010)
     Redouble/Take:+1.419 (+0.410)±0.000 (+1.419..+1.420)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.009)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.3%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 57.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] No Redouble
[14] Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Redouble

Every roll is a new cube decision. Here the decision is the same, we cannot roll any roll that leaves a shot this time so we roll and see if we can win a gammon – but we will ask ourselves whether we should double next roll.

Let’s not redouble as we are too good.



USBGF Members: 52 5/3 5/0
Neil Kazaross: 52 b/20 8/6


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 49
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 36
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCEa-------------a--cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBDBB----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/4 6/1eq: +0.990
Player:
Opponent:
96.87% (G:3.00% B:0.06%)
3.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.990...+0.990) - [98.9%]
Duration: 33.9 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 5/Offeq: +0.990 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
96.41% (G:4.12% B:0.08%)
3.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.990...+0.990) - [1.1%]
Duration: 1.3 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 6/4 6/1
[19] 5/3 5/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/4 6/1

Let’s just clear the 6 point here with 6/4 6/1. I do not see any reason to get to a position where we could leave a shot next roll.



Neil Kazaross: 21 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 43
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBEB-----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBDBB----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 98.26% (G:5.27% B:0.11%) 98.32% (G:4.24% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 1.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 1.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.993 +1.468
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+1.013±0.000 (+1.012..+1.013)
     Redouble/Take:+1.398 (+0.385)±0.000 (+1.398..+1.399)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.013)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.2%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] No Redouble
[18] Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Redouble

If we roll say 65 and Neil responses with 66 we are still 82% favorite. If we keep the cube we must be able to gammon him a small percentage of the time.

The fact that nothing leaves a shot means we should just play on. If we move one of our checkers on the 4 point back to our 6 point then we should redouble and Neil should pass but if we move it to our 5 point we are still too good to redouble.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBDBB----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBCCC----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/4 5/Offeq: +1.013
Player:
Opponent:
98.26% (G:5.29% B:0.10%)
1.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.013...+1.013) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 5/3eq: +1.000 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
97.35% (G:4.21% B:0.04%)
2.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.000...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second
3.Rollout16/1 4/2eq: +1.000 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
96.42% (G:4.40% B:0.04%)
3.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.000...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.4 second
4.Rollout15/Off 4/2eq: +1.000 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
95.20% (G:6.00% B:0.07%)
4.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.000...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] 6/4 5/0
[ 2] 6/1 5/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/4 5/0

Let’s play 6/4 5/0 which takes a checker off and guards against doubles like 66, 55 and 44. We are even ended after this move.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBDBB----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 68
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBBCB---AA-----a----cdf-:1:1:1:42:8:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout111/9 10/6eq: +1.010
Player:
Opponent:
98.01% (G:5.56% B:0.10%)
1.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.010...+1.010) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout110/4eq: +1.008 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
97.84% (G:5.28% B:0.10%)
2.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.007...+1.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout111/5eq: +1.007 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
97.76% (G:5.38% B:0.09%)
2.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.007...+1.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout110/6 5/3eq: +1.005 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
97.39% (G:5.24% B:0.09%)
2.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.005...+1.006) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds
5.Rollout111/7 10/8eq: +1.004 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
97.57% (G:5.01% B:0.08%)
2.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.004...+1.005) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds
6.Rollout110/8 5/1eq: +1.003 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
97.30% (G:4.70% B:0.06%)
2.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.003...+1.003) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds
7.Rollout111/7 5/3eq: +1.000 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
97.17% (G:5.14% B:0.06%)
2.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.000...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.5 seconds
8.Rollout111/9 5/1eq: +1.000 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
97.11% (G:4.80% B:0.08%)
2.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.000...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6.5 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 11/9 10/6
[15] 10/4
[ 6] 11/5
[ 4] 11/7 10/8
[ 1] 11/7 5/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/5

There are so many acceptable plays here – 10/6 5/3, 11/5, 10/4 or 10/6 11/9. I would not argue with any of them in a chouette but here over the board I would probably just play 11/5. The important question is can our move handle 66 or 55 next roll. If yes then any of the above is fine.



USBGF Members: 32 9/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBCCC----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 73
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBBBB-A-A--A---a----cdf-:1:1:1:32:8:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/11 8/5eq: +1.008
Player:
Opponent:
97.82% (G:5.52% B:0.10%)
2.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.008...+1.008) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout110/7 8/6eq: +1.006 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
97.69% (G:5.17% B:0.09%)
2.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.006...+1.007) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36651371
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 13/11 8/5
[ 6] 10/7 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 8/5

In these types positions (bearing in against an opponent’s checkers on the bar), I remember something that Kit Woolsey wrote that it is better to put your spares on the 5 point rather than the 6 point. The reason is that you will want to clear the 6 point soon anyway and it is more likely high doubles will not hurt you.

Next we want to diversify our outfield checkers so that we have more choice where to put them.

So, here we should consider 13/11 8/5 and see how it handles 66 and 55. 66 is great and 55 ok so let’s go with 13/11 8/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 68
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBBCB---AA-----a----cdf-:1:1:1:42:8:0:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BCBCB-A-A--A---a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 93.09% (G:4.50% B:0.11%) 93.26% (G:3.21% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 6.91% (G:0.07% B:0.00%) 6.74% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.885 +1.273
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.964 (-0.026)±0.001 (+0.963..+0.964)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.990±0.002 (+0.988..+0.991)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.010)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36651371
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] No Double
[13] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Redouble

If we play on do we win many Gammons? No.

Is this a take? It might be at 11 away 3 away. So if one is not immediately sure, we should Redouble – this is Woolsey’s law in action.



USBGF Members: 42 5/1 3/1


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 73
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBBBB-A-A--A---a----cdf-:1:1:1:32:8:0:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 43
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBBB-B-A--a---a-A--cdf-:1:1:1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.xgRollout119/13* 10/7eq: +0.942
Player:
Opponent:
90.78% (G:4.18% B:0.10%)
9.22% (G:0.43% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.940...+0.944) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 55 seconds
2.playedRollout119/13* 8/5eq: +0.924 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
91.31% (G:4.32% B:0.11%)
8.69% (G:0.24% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.924...+0.925) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 24 seconds
3.Rollout119/13* 13/10eq: +0.871 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
88.64% (G:4.34% B:0.12%)
11.36% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.871...+0.872) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36651371
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 19/13* 8/5
[21] 19/13* 10/7
[ 1] 19/10



Neil Kazaross: 62 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BCBCB-A-A--A---a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-CC-C-B--b-----Aa-dce-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout18/3 6/4eq: -0.293
Player:
Opponent:
34.72% (G:4.30% B:0.13%)
65.28% (G:2.65% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.295...-0.291) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout110/5 6/4eq: -0.310 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
33.94% (G:3.53% B:0.11%)
66.06% (G:2.55% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.312...-0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout18/1eq: -0.326 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
33.35% (G:4.53% B:0.06%)
66.65% (G:2.87% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.329...-0.323) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 34 seconds
4.Rollout18/6 8/3eq: -0.335 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
32.53% (G:2.83% B:0.09%)
67.47% (G:1.97% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.337...-0.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 45 seconds
5.Rollout110/5 8/6eq: -0.341 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
32.09% (G:3.09% B:0.10%)
67.91% (G:1.73% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.343...-0.338) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 27 seconds
6.Rollout110/3eq: -0.352 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
31.68% (G:2.75% B:0.10%)
68.32% (G:1.92% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.354...-0.350) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9783186
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 8/3 6/4
[ 7] 10/5 6/4
[ 6] 10/3
[ 2] 8/1
[ 1] 8/6 8/3
[ 1] 10/5 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/4

The same as last move — we need the 4 point so 6/4. Then let’s maximize builders/covers for the 2 point with 8/3.



Neil Kazaross: 32 5/2 3/1
USBGF Members: 63 10/4 5/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 47
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBBB-B-A--b-----A--cdf-:1:1:-1:31:8:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout112/8eq: -0.466
Player:
Opponent:
31.58% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)
68.42% (G:11.17% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.467...-0.464) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout112/11 12/9eq: -0.496 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
29.89% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
70.11% (G:9.42% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.497...-0.494) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout112/9 2/1eq: -0.639 (-0.173)
Player:
Opponent:
23.52% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
76.48% (G:11.29% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.641...-0.637) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout112/9 3/2eq: -0.644 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:
23.26% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
76.74% (G:11.36% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.647...-0.642) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36651371
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/8.

I have to leave a double shot and fortunately have these memorized so I know 12/8 is 24 shots whereas 12/9 12/11 is 25 shots, but let’s count anyhow. 20 rolls can hit a double shot directly so we want to them see what un-duplicated combos hit.

After 12/8. 11 hits, 51 hits and 33 hits. 22 and 42 are duplicated. So 24 shots.

After 12/11 12/9, 11 hits, 21 hits, 41 hits. 23 is duplicated. So 25 shots.

So I play 12/8 and pray for the 1/3 of the time I am not hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 43
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBBB-B-A--a---a-A--cdf-:1:1:1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 57
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-CC-BaC-a-------a-dceA:1:1:1:62:8:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout1Bar/19 6/4eq: -0.236
Player:
Opponent:
36.96% (G:4.83% B:0.26%)
63.04% (G:2.13% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.238...-0.233) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 12 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/19 10/8eq: -0.262 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
35.56% (G:4.56% B:0.23%)
64.44% (G:1.87% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.265...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/19 5/3eq: -0.279 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
35.00% (G:4.48% B:0.19%)
65.00% (G:2.21% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.282...-0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/19 8/6eq: -0.290 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
34.62% (G:4.64% B:0.21%)
65.38% (G:2.42% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.293...-0.287) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9783186
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] b/19 10/8
[16] b/19 6/4
[ 1] b/19 8/6
[ 1] b/19 5/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/19 6/4

We are not going to win the race — we could roll 66 twice and still not win the race so we should plan to get a shot and hit a shot but then the third part of the equation is to contain the checker that we have hit. To contain the checker, we need to make our board in order from the 6 downwards. Therefore we need our 4 point and the quickest and surest way to make it is to slot it.



Neil Kazaross: 41 16/12 13/12


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-CC-C-B--b-----Aa-dce-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 63
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--Aa-CD-BBC-a-------a-dce-:1:1:1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout19/3* 6/3eq: +0.542
Player:
Opponent:
73.68% (G:11.48% B:0.56%)
26.32% (G:3.11% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.539...+0.546) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/3* eq: +0.466 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
71.37% (G:11.87% B:0.61%)
28.63% (G:5.26% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.462...+0.469) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] 9/3* 6/3
[ 2] 10/1
[ 1] 8/2 6/3*
[ 1] 10/4 5/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/3* 6/3

We are behind in the race by 42 pips before the roll. Our game plan cannot be racing. We need to attack and make an inner board point with 9/3* 6/3. After that we will have a 4th point slotted and 3 builders aimed at it. Neil also has an inner board blot that will still be there after Neil hits with 21, 52 and 62. Even if after we are hit, and we come in without hitting, Neil will have to get 2 checkers past us.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-AB-CC-BAC-a-------a-dce-:1:1:-1:54:8:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/16* eq: -0.228
Player:
Opponent:
42.88% (G:2.88% B:0.01%)
57.12% (G:18.15% B:1.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.231...-0.224) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: -0.669 (-0.441)
Player:
Opponent:
20.35% (G:2.48% B:0.01%)
79.65% (G:8.25% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.672...-0.666) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16*.

I am delighted to be able to hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 57
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-CC-BaC-a-------a-dceA:1:1:1:62:8:0:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-CBC---------a-dce-:1:1:1:43:8:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout110/7 6/2eq: +0.645
Player:
Opponent:
77.88% (G:15.56% B:0.65%)
22.12% (G:2.52% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.641...+0.649) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout110/7 8/4eq: +0.617 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
76.86% (G:17.28% B:0.93%)
23.14% (G:3.74% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.612...+0.621) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 14 seconds
3.playedRollout18/5 6/2eq: +0.606 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
75.62% (G:14.64% B:0.66%)
24.38% (G:1.65% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.603...+0.609) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout110/6 8/5eq: +0.529 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
72.28% (G:13.91% B:0.66%)
27.72% (G:2.05% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.525...+0.532) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 8/5 6/2
[14] 10/6 8/5
[ 3] 10/7 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 10/7 6/2

If we win a Gammon we win the match. The go for gold is the double slot of 10/7 8/4 – that is too risky for me.

We want to force Neil off his 22 point anchor. If we slot 10/7 6/2 we will have a spare on the 8 point to cover the 7 point if needed (if missed) or to use to attack if Neil hits us with 43, 42, 41 or 31. The spare on our 8 point let’s us attack Neil’s rear checker if Neil hits with 54 or 64.

We could just play quiet with 8/5 6/2 and I would not argue against that in a chouette but here we want to complicate with 10/7 6/2.



Neil Kazaross: 54 22/13


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 63
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--Aa-CD-BBC-a-------a-dce-:1:1:1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-BBB--A--A---b-ebd-:1:1:1:65:8:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout116/10 13/8eq: +0.523
Player:
Opponent:
72.37% (G:11.72% B:0.50%)
27.63% (G:2.01% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.522...+0.525) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout113/2eq: +0.518 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
72.28% (G:14.24% B:0.59%)
27.72% (G:2.89% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.517...+0.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 30 minutes
3.Rollout116/5eq: +0.517 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
72.20% (G:13.06% B:0.55%)
27.80% (G:2.54% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.515...+0.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 01 minute
4.Rollout216/10 6/1eq: +0.496 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
71.45% (G:12.99% B:0.53%)
28.55% (G:2.75% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.493...+0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 47 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32]
[ 4] 13/2
[ 4] 16/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/10 13/8

16/5 looks tempting but why leave 2 rolls that let Neil escape and puts us on the bar. It is still a good roll for Neil after we play 16/10 13/8 but now we would not be on the bar and can attack his remaining checker.

If we are to leave extra shots, we need to see a clear benefit. Here I see only the downside so let’s skip 16/5 and play 16/10 13/8.”


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-CBC---------b-ebd-:1:1:-1:32:8:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout15/3 5/2eq: -0.635
Player:
Opponent:
22.77% (G:1.58% B:0.01%)
77.23% (G:13.91% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.639...-0.632) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 15 seconds
2.playedRollout15/2 3/1eq: -0.656 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
21.93% (G:1.56% B:0.01%)
78.07% (G:14.12% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.659...-0.652) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/2 3/1.

I think I should save a 4 so I can hang onto my anchor with 41 and 42 next turn so as not to have two checkers exposed to a 15 checker attack.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-CBC---------a-dce-:1:1:1:43:8:0:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--F-CB---B-AA---b-ecc-:1:1:1:53:8:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout115/10 13/10eq: +0.298
Player:
Opponent:
64.28% (G:12.18% B:0.49%)
35.72% (G:6.95% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.293...+0.304) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout116/11 15/12eq: +0.184 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
60.36% (G:10.82% B:0.49%)
39.64% (G:9.19% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.179...+0.189) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout116/8eq: +0.181 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
59.63% (G:10.53% B:0.46%)
40.37% (G:8.23% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.176...+0.185) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 55 seconds
4.Rollout115/12 6/1eq: +0.144 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
58.78% (G:11.96% B:0.42%)
41.22% (G:9.79% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.139...+0.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout116/13 15/10eq: +0.142 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:
57.75% (G:9.82% B:0.44%)
42.25% (G:7.97% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.137...+0.146) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 47 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[42] 15/10 13/10
[ 3] 16/8
[ 2] 15/12 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--F-CBB--A--A---b-ecc-:1:1:-1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout122/20eq: -0.379
Player:
Opponent:
32.07% (G:6.90% B:0.05%)
67.93% (G:13.49% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.383...-0.374) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout13/1eq: -0.414 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
31.44% (G:4.78% B:0.02%)
68.56% (G:12.69% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.419...-0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/20.

I must split and try to escape and provoke contact while I still have a 4 point board.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5* 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--a-BE-BBB--A--A---b-ecc-:1:1:-1:31:8:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 2/1eq: -0.592
Player:
Opponent:
24.46% (G:2.46% B:0.01%)
75.54% (G:13.97% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.593...-0.590) - [89.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 28 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/22 3/2eq: -0.593 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
24.37% (G:2.52% B:0.01%)
75.63% (G:14.21% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.595...-0.592) - [10.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/22 5/4eq: -0.664 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
21.46% (G:2.37% B:0.01%)
78.54% (G:16.59% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.668...-0.660) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 24 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/21eq: -0.668 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
20.81% (G:3.81% B:0.04%)
79.19% (G:18.52% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.672...-0.664) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 2/1.

Splitting looks a bit too scary with their array of builders aimed at me along with some crushing jokers. I think I have to content my self with the 3 anchor now and hope to roll 44 or hit a fly shot or win somehow as they come home to their bearoff.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-BBB--A--A---b-ebd-:1:1:1:65:8:0:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 75
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a--F-CB---B-a---bcBcbc-:1:1:1:65:8:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout121/16 21/15* eq: -0.090
Player:
Opponent:
50.33% (G:7.26% B:0.27%)
49.67% (G:13.20% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.095...-0.085) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout121/15* 15/10eq: -0.336 (-0.246)
Player:
Opponent:
44.07% (G:7.28% B:0.44%)
55.93% (G:22.61% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.341...-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 40 seconds
3.Rollout121/15* 13/8eq: -0.429 (-0.339)
Player:
Opponent:
40.31% (G:6.21% B:0.20%)
59.69% (G:23.10% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.434...-0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout121/15* 8/3* eq: -0.471 (-0.381)
Player:
Opponent:
40.58% (G:6.68% B:0.39%)
59.42% (G:26.94% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.476...-0.466) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 50 seconds
5.Rollout19/3* 8/3eq: -0.477 (-0.387)
Player:
Opponent:
34.97% (G:3.78% B:0.12%)
65.03% (G:17.50% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.481...-0.474) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] 21/16 21/15*
[ 2] 9/3* 8/3
[ 1] 21/15*/10


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 90
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--a--F-CB---B-AA--bc-cbc-:1:1:-1:33:8:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 6/3(2) 5/2eq: -0.345
Player:
Opponent:
33.81% (G:6.61% B:0.03%)
66.19% (G:12.88% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.350...-0.340) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 5/2(3)eq: -0.389 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
32.09% (G:6.35% B:0.03%)
67.91% (G:14.55% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.394...-0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 6/3(2) 5/2.

The nightmare continues, but I certainly want to kill 5’s in hopes of keeping a 4 point board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--F-CB---B-AA---b-ecc-:1:1:1:53:8:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=------F-C--a-D-a---bbacbcB:1:1:1:44:8:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21*(2) 13/9(2)eq: -0.285
Player:
Opponent:
42.67% (G:6.62% B:0.45%)
57.33% (G:15.92% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.287...-0.283) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 48 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21*(2) 6/2(2)eq: -0.292 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
42.80% (G:7.86% B:0.71%)
57.20% (G:17.10% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.294...-0.290) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 41 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/21*(2) 21/17(2)eq: -0.452 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:
34.07% (G:4.49% B:0.24%)
65.93% (G:14.49% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.458...-0.447) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/21*(2) 13/9(2)
[ 3] b/21*(2) 8/4(2)
[ 3] b/21*(2) 6/2(2)
[ 2] b/21*(2) 21/17(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21*(2) 13/9(2)

13/9(2) is a good blocking point with lots of future potential. I also like 6/2(2) as it unstacks our over stacked 6 point. I would be happy with either. I guess over the board I would play 13/9(2) as it was my 5 second play.



Neil Kazaross: 33 b/22 14/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 75
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a--F-CB---B-a---bcBcbc-:1:1:1:65:8:0:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-bDa--a-ebb--AA:1:1:1:43:8:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 10/6eq: -0.794
Player:
Opponent:
30.94% (G:7.81% B:1.22%)
69.06% (G:36.58% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.800...-0.789) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/9eq: -0.837 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
32.38% (G:8.53% B:2.18%)
67.62% (G:37.98% B:4.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.843...-0.830) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.862 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
30.68% (G:7.72% B:1.71%)
69.32% (G:40.30% B:1.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.867...-0.856) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/22 10/6
[19] b/22 13/9
[ 8] b/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 10/6

When I play backgammon I sometimes am heard to say “there’s a storm coming.” It’s a line from the end of the first Terminator movie. In the movie it is said as they can see a storm coming off the desert but really refers to the fact that a nuclear war is coming. I say it when I get the feeling that I need to take cover to minimize the damage that is about to happen to me over the board.

Neil has 11 checkers in the zone. He wants to gammon us and will hit loose if necessary. Our checker on the 10 point is not an asset, it is a liability. WE want to avoid creating another liability by playing 13/9. We also do not want to play bar/18 putting a blot on a point that Neil wants to make and moving out to a triple shot.

There’s a Storm coming – play 10/6 and give ourselves the best chance of surviving the storm or minimizing the damage (i.e. We want to minimize our chances of being Gammoned).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----F-C---bDa--a-ebbA-A-:1:1:-1:41:8:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/3* eq: +0.687
Player:
Opponent:
66.48% (G:32.59% B:1.13%)
33.52% (G:9.09% B:1.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.681...+0.693) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout111/7 8/7eq: +0.656 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
67.48% (G:28.33% B:0.70%)
32.52% (G:7.59% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.651...+0.661) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3*.

Especially at this score, I need to maintain the initiative and try to not let them consolidate. Therefore I’ll play 8/3*. I’m not sure whether I’d make the bar if this were a money game situation, but will state that one of the greatest sources for checker play errors comes when players talk themselves out of hitting and attacking.



USBGF Members: 64 no play
Neil Kazaross: 66 13/1*(2)
USBGF Members: 52 b/23


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----F-C----Da----ebbaAbA:1:1:-1:51:8:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout111/6 3/2* eq: +1.157
Player:
Opponent:
76.66% (G:52.59% B:0.51%)
23.34% (G:4.17% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.152...+1.162) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 3/2* eq: +1.054 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
73.87% (G:49.56% B:0.40%)
26.13% (G:5.39% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.049...+1.059) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout124/18eq: +0.960 (-0.198)
Player:
Opponent:
72.98% (G:42.67% B:0.69%)
27.02% (G:4.82% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.955...+0.965) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/6 3/2*.

I have to keep attacking in spite of now being forced to play a very awkward 5. Wasting a checker with 6/1 is unthinkable, and will cost me dearly if this blitz fails and I have to play with a few back checkers and three checkers on my ace.



USBGF Members: 54 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 106
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----F-C----D-----fbb-abB:1:1:-1:42:8:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout16/4 6/2eq: +1.736
Player:
Opponent:
89.91% (G:76.20% B:0.49%)
10.09% (G:1.28% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.732...+1.739) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 6/2eq: +1.685 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
89.18% (G:73.28% B:0.52%)
10.82% (G:1.35% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.681...+1.688) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4 6/2.

I am delighted to have rolled a 4 to cover. As for my 2, I am rather sure I need to unstack further and make a new builder with 6/4. Often one wants to split the back checkers in a situation like this but 24/22 doesn’t help me avoid the horror of rolling 55 next.



USBGF Members: 43 b/22


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 100
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----F-C----D-----dbcAbbA:1:1:-1:51:8:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/1 4/3* eq: +1.505
Player:
Opponent:
84.50% (G:67.23% B:0.35%)
15.50% (G:2.64% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.501...+1.509) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout124/18eq: +1.439 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
85.04% (G:60.59% B:0.46%)
14.96% (G:1.64% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.436...+1.443) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1 4/3*.

I had to look at this for a bit. I hate to play 6/1, but the gains from putting two checkers on the bar vs. a 5 point board are large and lead to more gammon wins. 24/18 looks nice, but sometimes after they dance, I cannot hit on my 3 point and sooner or later they anchor (if not on their first chance).

Especially at the score, I attack.



USBGF Members: 41 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----F-C----D-----cbbabcB:1:1:-1:41:8:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/20 4/3eq: +1.583
Player:
Opponent:
86.63% (G:69.78% B:0.35%)
13.37% (G:1.86% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.579...+1.587) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: +1.573 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
85.90% (G:70.21% B:0.38%)
14.10% (G:2.27% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.569...+1.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout124/20 6/5eq: +1.571 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
86.17% (G:69.58% B:0.37%)
13.83% (G:2.19% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.566...+1.575) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout124/20 3/2eq: +1.522 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
85.89% (G:66.20% B:0.25%)
14.11% (G:1.57% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.519...+1.526) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 4/3.

24/20 is automatic to begin my trip home. Lifting the slot is surely wrong and will clearly win fewer gammons, and since I may never close my 3 point, perhaps fewer games. The best slotting play is to shift it backwards as it tends to be easier to cover long term and also prevents cracking if I roll 33.



USBGF Members: 61 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aF-C----D-----cbabbcB:1:1:-1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/21 20/14eq: +1.721
Player:
Opponent:
89.51% (G:75.85% B:0.39%)
10.49% (G:1.45% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.719...+1.722) - [82.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.Rollout120/11eq: +1.720 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
89.53% (G:75.68% B:0.41%)
10.47% (G:1.31% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.718...+1.721) - [17.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
3.Rollout224/15eq: +1.701 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
89.36% (G:74.49% B:0.39%)
10.64% (G:1.32% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.698...+1.704) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 25 seconds
4.Rollout224/18 4/1eq: +1.667 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
89.60% (G:71.44% B:0.21%)
10.40% (G:0.84% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.664...+1.670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 51 seconds
5.Rollout220/14 4/1eq: +1.662 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
89.44% (G:71.40% B:0.22%)
10.56% (G:0.98% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.659...+1.666) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 20/14.

Again I think lifting is the wrong idea. So after 20/14, I can play 20/11 and add 4 more cover rolls, but will hate it if I roll 55. 24/21 gives me 3 more cover numbers, and gets away from that horrid 55 and starts the back checker moving.



USBGF Members: 51 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 80
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=----a-F-C--a-D-----cbabbcB:1:1:-1:61:8:0:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout121/15 4/3eq: +1.875
Player:
Opponent:
94.08% (G:80.44% B:0.30%)
5.92% (G:0.24% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.873...+1.878) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout121/15 5/4eq: +1.849 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
92.66% (G:80.81% B:0.39%)
7.34% (G:0.81% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.846...+1.852) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds
3.Rollout121/15 14/13eq: +1.832 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
92.02% (G:80.31% B:0.46%)
7.98% (G:0.81% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.829...+1.835) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout121/20 14/8eq: +1.826 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
91.83% (G:80.27% B:0.42%)
8.17% (G:0.85% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.823...+1.829) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout121/15 6/5eq: +1.821 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
92.07% (G:79.51% B:0.39%)
7.93% (G:0.80% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.818...+1.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 44 seconds
6.Rollout114/8 4/3eq: +1.820 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
92.30% (G:79.10% B:0.30%)
7.70% (G:0.55% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.817...+1.823) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 24 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/15 4/3.

I took a long look at this and also using my memory of similar positions and lifting is clear at a more equal score. The open 4 point is not nearly as bothersome as an open 3 point in the bearoff and after 21/15 4/3 I leave no shots and my outfield checkers are close to home without being subject to a bad blocked large double. Next roll I can have two or even three builders for the 4 point.



USBGF Members: 64 b/21


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 73
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=------F-C-aa-D-----cbAcbcA:1:1:-1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout115/10 6/4* eq: +1.826
Player:
Opponent:
92.22% (G:79.70% B:0.34%)
7.78% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.823...+1.829) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout114/9 6/4* eq: +1.781 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
91.26% (G:77.66% B:0.33%)
8.74% (G:0.82% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.777...+1.784) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/10 6/4*.

Just because I decided to lift the blot last turn doesn’t mean that I can’t hit loose this turn. Putting their second checker back on the bar vs. a 5 point board when they essentially have nothing is very strong and certainly wins more gammons.

After hitting, 15/10 is clear so that half my rolls cover after they dance and so that if hit, the 6 that I cannot use to enter can be used to hit and maintain the attack.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=------F-C--a-D-a---bbacbcB:1:1:1:44:8:0:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10