USBGF OLM 2019-01-21

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-BBB--A--A---b-ebd-:1:1:1:65:8:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout116/10 13/8eq: +0.523
Player:
Opponent:
72.37% (G:11.72% B:0.50%)
27.63% (G:2.01% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.522...+0.525) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout113/2eq: +0.518 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
72.28% (G:14.24% B:0.59%)
27.72% (G:2.89% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.517...+0.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 30 minutes
3.Rollout116/5eq: +0.517 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
72.20% (G:13.06% B:0.55%)
27.80% (G:2.54% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.515...+0.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 01 minute
4.Rollout216/10 6/1eq: +0.496 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
71.45% (G:12.99% B:0.53%)
28.55% (G:2.75% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.493...+0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 47 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32]
[ 4] 13/2
[ 4] 16/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/10 13/8

16/5 looks tempting but why leave 2 rolls that let Neil escape and puts us on the bar. It is still a good roll for Neil after we play 16/10 13/8 but now we would not be on the bar and can attack his remaining checker.

If we are to leave extra shots, we need to see a clear benefit. Here I see only the downside so let’s skip 16/5 and play 16/10 13/8.”


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-CBC---------b-ebd-:1:1:-1:32:8:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout15/3 5/2eq: -0.635
Player:
Opponent:
22.77% (G:1.58% B:0.01%)
77.23% (G:13.91% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.639...-0.632) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 15 seconds
2.playedRollout15/2 3/1eq: -0.656 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
21.93% (G:1.56% B:0.01%)
78.07% (G:14.12% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.659...-0.652) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/2 3/1.

I think I should save a 4 so I can hang onto my anchor with 41 and 42 next turn so as not to have two checkers exposed to a 15 checker attack.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-CBC---------a-dce-:1:1:1:43:8:0:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 1/23 945p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-01-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--F-CB---B-AA---b-ecc-:1:1:1:53:8:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout115/10 13/10eq: +0.298
Player:
Opponent:
64.28% (G:12.18% B:0.49%)
35.72% (G:6.95% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.293...+0.304) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout116/11 15/12eq: +0.184 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
60.36% (G:10.82% B:0.49%)
39.64% (G:9.19% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.179...+0.189) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout116/8eq: +0.181 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
59.63% (G:10.53% B:0.46%)
40.37% (G:8.23% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.176...+0.185) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 55 seconds
4.Rollout115/12 6/1eq: +0.144 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
58.78% (G:11.96% B:0.42%)
41.22% (G:9.79% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.139...+0.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout116/13 15/10eq: +0.142 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:
57.75% (G:9.82% B:0.44%)
42.25% (G:7.97% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.137...+0.146) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 47 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[42] 15/10 13/10
[ 3] 16/8
[ 2] 15/12 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--F-CBB--A--A---b-ecc-:1:1:-1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout122/20eq: -0.379
Player:
Opponent:
32.07% (G:6.90% B:0.05%)
67.93% (G:13.49% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.383...-0.374) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout13/1eq: -0.414 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
31.44% (G:4.78% B:0.02%)
68.56% (G:12.69% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.419...-0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/20.

I must split and try to escape and provoke contact while I still have a 4 point board.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5* 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--a-BE-BBB--A--A---b-ecc-:1:1:-1:31:8:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 2/1eq: -0.592
Player:
Opponent:
24.46% (G:2.46% B:0.01%)
75.54% (G:13.97% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.593...-0.590) - [89.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 28 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/22 3/2eq: -0.593 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
24.37% (G:2.52% B:0.01%)
75.63% (G:14.21% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.595...-0.592) - [10.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/22 5/4eq: -0.664 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
21.46% (G:2.37% B:0.01%)
78.54% (G:16.59% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.668...-0.660) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 24 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/21eq: -0.668 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
20.81% (G:3.81% B:0.04%)
79.19% (G:18.52% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.672...-0.664) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 2/1.

Splitting looks a bit too scary with their array of builders aimed at me along with some crushing jokers. I think I have to content my self with the 3 anchor now and hope to roll 44 or hit a fly shot or win somehow as they come home to their bearoff.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-BBB--A--A---b-ebd-:1:1:1:65:8:0:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Tue 1/22 1000p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-01-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 75
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a--F-CB---B-a---bcBcbc-:1:1:1:65:8:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout121/16 21/15* eq: -0.090
Player:
Opponent:
50.33% (G:7.26% B:0.27%)
49.67% (G:13.20% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.095...-0.085) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout121/15* 15/10eq: -0.336 (-0.246)
Player:
Opponent:
44.07% (G:7.28% B:0.44%)
55.93% (G:22.61% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.341...-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 40 seconds
3.Rollout121/15* 13/8eq: -0.429 (-0.339)
Player:
Opponent:
40.31% (G:6.21% B:0.20%)
59.69% (G:23.10% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.434...-0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout121/15* 8/3* eq: -0.471 (-0.381)
Player:
Opponent:
40.58% (G:6.68% B:0.39%)
59.42% (G:26.94% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.476...-0.466) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 50 seconds
5.Rollout19/3* 8/3eq: -0.477 (-0.387)
Player:
Opponent:
34.97% (G:3.78% B:0.12%)
65.03% (G:17.50% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.481...-0.474) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] 21/16 21/15*
[ 2] 9/3* 8/3
[ 1] 21/15*/10


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 90
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--a--F-CB---B-AA--bc-cbc-:1:1:-1:33:8:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 6/3(2) 5/2eq: -0.345
Player:
Opponent:
33.81% (G:6.61% B:0.03%)
66.19% (G:12.88% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.350...-0.340) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 5/2(3)eq: -0.389 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
32.09% (G:6.35% B:0.03%)
67.91% (G:14.55% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.394...-0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 6/3(2) 5/2.

The nightmare continues, but I certainly want to kill 5’s in hopes of keeping a 4 point board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--F-CB---B-AA---b-ecc-:1:1:1:53:8:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=------F-C--a-D-a---bbacbcB:1:1:1:44:8:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21*(2) 13/9(2)eq: -0.285
Player:
Opponent:
42.67% (G:6.62% B:0.45%)
57.33% (G:15.92% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.287...-0.283) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 48 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21*(2) 6/2(2)eq: -0.292 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
42.80% (G:7.86% B:0.71%)
57.20% (G:17.10% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.294...-0.290) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 41 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/21*(2) 21/17(2)eq: -0.452 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:
34.07% (G:4.49% B:0.24%)
65.93% (G:14.49% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.458...-0.447) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/21*(2) 13/9(2)
[ 3] b/21*(2) 8/4(2)
[ 3] b/21*(2) 6/2(2)
[ 2] b/21*(2) 21/17(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21*(2) 13/9(2)

13/9(2) is a good blocking point with lots of future potential. I also like 6/2(2) as it unstacks our over stacked 6 point. I would be happy with either. I guess over the board I would play 13/9(2) as it was my 5 second play.



Neil Kazaross: 33 b/22 14/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 75
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a--F-CB---B-a---bcBcbc-:1:1:1:65:8:0:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-bDa--a-ebb--AA:1:1:1:43:8:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 10/6eq: -0.794
Player:
Opponent:
30.94% (G:7.81% B:1.22%)
69.06% (G:36.58% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.800...-0.789) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/9eq: -0.837 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
32.38% (G:8.53% B:2.18%)
67.62% (G:37.98% B:4.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.843...-0.830) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.862 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
30.68% (G:7.72% B:1.71%)
69.32% (G:40.30% B:1.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.867...-0.856) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/22 10/6
[19] b/22 13/9
[ 8] b/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 10/6

When I play backgammon I sometimes am heard to say “there’s a storm coming.” It’s a line from the end of the first Terminator movie. In the movie it is said as they can see a storm coming off the desert but really refers to the fact that a nuclear war is coming. I say it when I get the feeling that I need to take cover to minimize the damage that is about to happen to me over the board.

Neil has 11 checkers in the zone. He wants to gammon us and will hit loose if necessary. Our checker on the 10 point is not an asset, it is a liability. WE want to avoid creating another liability by playing 13/9. We also do not want to play bar/18 putting a blot on a point that Neil wants to make and moving out to a triple shot.

There’s a Storm coming – play 10/6 and give ourselves the best chance of surviving the storm or minimizing the damage (i.e. We want to minimize our chances of being Gammoned).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----F-C---bDa--a-ebbA-A-:1:1:-1:41:8:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/3* eq: +0.687
Player:
Opponent:
66.48% (G:32.59% B:1.13%)
33.52% (G:9.09% B:1.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.681...+0.693) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout111/7 8/7eq: +0.656 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
67.48% (G:28.33% B:0.70%)
32.52% (G:7.59% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.651...+0.661) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3*.

Especially at this score, I need to maintain the initiative and try to not let them consolidate. Therefore I’ll play 8/3*. I’m not sure whether I’d make the bar if this were a money game situation, but will state that one of the greatest sources for checker play errors comes when players talk themselves out of hitting and attacking.



USBGF Members: 64 no play
Neil Kazaross: 66 13/1*(2)
USBGF Members: 52 b/23


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----F-C----Da----ebbaAbA:1:1:-1:51:8:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout111/6 3/2* eq: +1.157
Player:
Opponent:
76.66% (G:52.59% B:0.51%)
23.34% (G:4.17% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.152...+1.162) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 3/2* eq: +1.054 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
73.87% (G:49.56% B:0.40%)
26.13% (G:5.39% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.049...+1.059) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout124/18eq: +0.960 (-0.198)
Player:
Opponent:
72.98% (G:42.67% B:0.69%)
27.02% (G:4.82% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.955...+0.965) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/6 3/2*.

I have to keep attacking in spite of now being forced to play a very awkward 5. Wasting a checker with 6/1 is unthinkable, and will cost me dearly if this blitz fails and I have to play with a few back checkers and three checkers on my ace.



USBGF Members: 54 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 106
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----F-C----D-----fbb-abB:1:1:-1:42:8:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout16/4 6/2eq: +1.736
Player:
Opponent:
89.91% (G:76.20% B:0.49%)
10.09% (G:1.28% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.732...+1.739) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 6/2eq: +1.685 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
89.18% (G:73.28% B:0.52%)
10.82% (G:1.35% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.681...+1.688) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4 6/2.

I am delighted to have rolled a 4 to cover. As for my 2, I am rather sure I need to unstack further and make a new builder with 6/4. Often one wants to split the back checkers in a situation like this but 24/22 doesn’t help me avoid the horror of rolling 55 next.



USBGF Members: 43 b/22


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 100
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----F-C----D-----dbcAbbA:1:1:-1:51:8:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/1 4/3* eq: +1.505
Player:
Opponent:
84.50% (G:67.23% B:0.35%)
15.50% (G:2.64% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.501...+1.509) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout124/18eq: +1.439 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
85.04% (G:60.59% B:0.46%)
14.96% (G:1.64% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.436...+1.443) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1 4/3*.

I had to look at this for a bit. I hate to play 6/1, but the gains from putting two checkers on the bar vs. a 5 point board are large and lead to more gammon wins. 24/18 looks nice, but sometimes after they dance, I cannot hit on my 3 point and sooner or later they anchor (if not on their first chance).

Especially at the score, I attack.



USBGF Members: 41 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----F-C----D-----cbbabcB:1:1:-1:41:8:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/20 4/3eq: +1.583
Player:
Opponent:
86.63% (G:69.78% B:0.35%)
13.37% (G:1.86% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.579...+1.587) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: +1.573 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
85.90% (G:70.21% B:0.38%)
14.10% (G:2.27% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.569...+1.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout124/20 6/5eq: +1.571 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
86.17% (G:69.58% B:0.37%)
13.83% (G:2.19% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.566...+1.575) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout124/20 3/2eq: +1.522 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
85.89% (G:66.20% B:0.25%)
14.11% (G:1.57% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.519...+1.526) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 4/3.

24/20 is automatic to begin my trip home. Lifting the slot is surely wrong and will clearly win fewer gammons, and since I may never close my 3 point, perhaps fewer games. The best slotting play is to shift it backwards as it tends to be easier to cover long term and also prevents cracking if I roll 33.



USBGF Members: 61 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aF-C----D-----cbabbcB:1:1:-1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/21 20/14eq: +1.721
Player:
Opponent:
89.51% (G:75.85% B:0.39%)
10.49% (G:1.45% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.719...+1.722) - [82.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.Rollout120/11eq: +1.720 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
89.53% (G:75.68% B:0.41%)
10.47% (G:1.31% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.718...+1.721) - [17.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
3.Rollout224/15eq: +1.701 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
89.36% (G:74.49% B:0.39%)
10.64% (G:1.32% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.698...+1.704) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 25 seconds
4.Rollout224/18 4/1eq: +1.667 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
89.60% (G:71.44% B:0.21%)
10.40% (G:0.84% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.664...+1.670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 51 seconds
5.Rollout220/14 4/1eq: +1.662 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
89.44% (G:71.40% B:0.22%)
10.56% (G:0.98% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.659...+1.666) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 20/14.

Again I think lifting is the wrong idea. So after 20/14, I can play 20/11 and add 4 more cover rolls, but will hate it if I roll 55. 24/21 gives me 3 more cover numbers, and gets away from that horrid 55 and starts the back checker moving.



USBGF Members: 51 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 80
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=----a-F-C--a-D-----cbabbcB:1:1:-1:61:8:0:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout121/15 4/3eq: +1.875
Player:
Opponent:
94.08% (G:80.44% B:0.30%)
5.92% (G:0.24% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.873...+1.878) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout121/15 5/4eq: +1.849 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
92.66% (G:80.81% B:0.39%)
7.34% (G:0.81% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.846...+1.852) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds
3.Rollout121/15 14/13eq: +1.832 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
92.02% (G:80.31% B:0.46%)
7.98% (G:0.81% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.829...+1.835) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout121/20 14/8eq: +1.826 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
91.83% (G:80.27% B:0.42%)
8.17% (G:0.85% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.823...+1.829) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout121/15 6/5eq: +1.821 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
92.07% (G:79.51% B:0.39%)
7.93% (G:0.80% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.818...+1.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 44 seconds
6.Rollout114/8 4/3eq: +1.820 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
92.30% (G:79.10% B:0.30%)
7.70% (G:0.55% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.817...+1.823) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 24 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/15 4/3.

I took a long look at this and also using my memory of similar positions and lifting is clear at a more equal score. The open 4 point is not nearly as bothersome as an open 3 point in the bearoff and after 21/15 4/3 I leave no shots and my outfield checkers are close to home without being subject to a bad blocked large double. Next roll I can have two or even three builders for the 4 point.



USBGF Members: 64 b/21


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 73
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=------F-C-aa-D-----cbAcbcA:1:1:-1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout115/10 6/4* eq: +1.826
Player:
Opponent:
92.22% (G:79.70% B:0.34%)
7.78% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.823...+1.829) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout114/9 6/4* eq: +1.781 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
91.26% (G:77.66% B:0.33%)
8.74% (G:0.82% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.777...+1.784) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/10 6/4*.

Just because I decided to lift the blot last turn doesn’t mean that I can’t hit loose this turn. Putting their second checker back on the bar vs. a 5 point board when they essentially have nothing is very strong and certainly wins more gammons.

After hitting, 15/10 is clear so that half my rolls cover after they dance and so that if hit, the 6 that I cannot use to enter can be used to hit and maintain the attack.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=------F-C--a-D-a---bbacbcB:1:1:1:44:8:0:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-bDa--cbe-A--A-:0:0:-1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 58.31% (G:19.23% B:0.89%) 58.30% (G:19.58% B:0.88%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 41.69% (G:11.48% B:1.78%) 41.70% (G:12.10% B:2.30%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.238 +0.710
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.641 (-0.034)±0.009 (+0.632..+0.650)
played Double/Take:+0.675±0.011 (+0.665..+0.686)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.325)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 09 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[44] Take
[ 4] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

For money this is not a double.

Neil has 11 checkers in the zone. He has priming potential and blitzing potential. But the key word is potential. He has no more inner board points than he started with. I wish we had either our 21 point or 10 point made but we don’t, we might make them.

A great double At This Score I would have missed over the board.

We have to take this.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-bDa--cbe-A--A-:1:1:-1:33:8:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/5(2) 7/4*(2) eq: +0.685
Player:
Opponent:
66.28% (G:31.81% B:1.47%)
33.72% (G:8.34% B:1.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.679...+0.691) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout17/4*(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.648 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
65.87% (G:29.72% B:1.34%)
34.13% (G:8.54% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.643...+0.654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5(2) 7/4*(2).

The potential to roll this sort of joker is why I cubed this position at this score. Here I am happy to point 7/4*(2) and must then decide whether make my 3 point or 5 point. If I make my 3 point I really don’t want them to roll 54 or 55 or 65. If I make my 5 point I don’t want them to roll 62 or 53 or 33 or 32. Are 5 really don’t wants worse than 7 don’t wants? Likely, but the additional deciding factor in me making choosing the to make the 5 point in spite of the more awkward position is that now any checkers that end up in my board will be forced well back and behind all my checkers for now.

It has been said that “the 5 point is the 5 point.” I’ll stick with that logic here.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-bDa--a-ebb--AA:1:1:1:34:8:0:0:11:10
to play 34

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AbDa--cbe----AA:0:0:1:41:8:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout1Bar/21 6/5eq: -0.666
Player:
Opponent:
43.32% (G:12.17% B:1.96%)
56.68% (G:21.01% B:1.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.679...-0.653) - [99.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/21 11/10eq: -0.683 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
41.42% (G:11.50% B:1.67%)
58.58% (G:19.33% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.694...-0.672) - [0.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 24/23eq: -0.697 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
41.59% (G:11.98% B:1.78%)
58.41% (G:20.10% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.707...-0.686) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/24 13/9eq: -0.697 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
40.72% (G:12.91% B:2.24%)
59.28% (G:18.64% B:1.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.708...-0.686) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] b/21 11/10
[ 7] b/24 13/9
[ 6] b/21 24/23
[ 6] b/21 6/5
[ 1] b/20
[ 1] b/24 11/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 6/5

We do not want to enter on the 24 point, so we should play Bar/21 trying for an advanced anchor.

Then we have three different 1’s to consider.

24/23 moves another checker into the ‘target range’ where there will be 3 builders or attackers aimed at it. I reject this very quickly.

11/10 will minimize shots. This is a good play but as someone once said to me ‘good is the enemy of best’.

6/5 the splot play. For a splot play to be correct we usually need to be duplicating a number and have a reasonable number of covers. Here we duplicate 4’s and have a reasonable number of covers. We should always like to give ourselves good 6’s and here 6/5 does that. This would be very clear at a normal match score or in an unlimited game. Here leading by 8 points should make us more cautious.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-bDa--cbe-A--A-:0:0:-1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-01-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---cEa--d-e----B-:0:0:1:62:8:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout124/18 13/11eq: -0.445
Player:
Opponent:
47.02% (G:13.62% B:1.82%)
52.98% (G:17.31% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.449...-0.440) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.461 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
46.14% (G:14.46% B:1.57%)
53.86% (G:15.97% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.465...-0.457) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 48 minutes
3.Rollout224/16eq: -0.477 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
46.36% (G:12.42% B:1.47%)
53.64% (G:17.33% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.487...-0.467) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 24/18 13/11
[ 5] 13/5
[ 4] 13/11 13/7
[ 1] 24/22 13/7
[ 1] 24/16
[ 1] 24/22 24/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 13/11

At this score we should still make the normal 24/18 13/11. This unstacks the 13 point and distracts Neil by putting a blot where Neil must deal with it.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--dAe----A-:0:0:-1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 53.08% (G:17.20% B:0.62%) 52.94% (G:17.83% B:0.67%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 46.92% (G:13.39% B:1.82%) 47.06% (G:14.18% B:2.25%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.097 +0.446
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.444±0.011 (+0.433..+0.455)
     Double/Take:+0.408 (-0.036)±0.012 (+0.396..+0.419)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.556)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 53 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

While I have a few joker threats, I don’t think my game is good enough even at this score to cube. If I cube now, everyone will take, but if I get some improvement, then they’ll have something to think about.



Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7* 8/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AbDa--cbe----AA:0:0:1:41:8:0:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 55
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBCBBCC--------------bbcg-:2:-1:1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/Offeq: +0.921
Player:
Opponent:
96.36% (G:2.92% B:0.05%)
3.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.920...+0.921) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 5/4eq: +0.915 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
96.17% (G:1.96% B:0.03%)
3.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.914...+0.915) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 6/1 5/4
[19] 6/0
[ 1] 6/5 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/0

There is a lot to be said for 6/1 5/4, it means we can roll large doubles without leaving a shot. If Neil had a 6 point or 5 point board then we should play 6/1 5/4 as we could not afford to be hit. However, Neil only has a 4 point board. This means for my preferred move of 6/off to be bad:

  • we would have to roll 66 or 55,
  • then Neil would have to hit us,
  • then we would have to not come in against the 4 point board
  • then we would have to lose the race from there.

This is such a remote possibility that I would just go ahead and play 6/off over the board. This will probably be close.



USBGF Members: 21 5/4 2/0
USBGF Members: 63 6/3 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 42 no play
USBGF Members: 62 5/3 5/0
Neil Kazaross: 51 b/19
USBGF Members: 52 4/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 42 19/13
USBGF Members: 52 4/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 42 13/7
USBGF Members: 54 4/0 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 22 7/5 2/0(3)
USBGF Members: 53 3/0(2)

USBGF Members win four points, and now lead 3-away/11-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/11 13/8eq: +0.309
Player:
Opponent:
50.09% (G:14.66% B:0.63%)
49.91% (G:15.09% B:1.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.305...+0.313) - [99.6%]
Duration: 18 hours 30 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 13/8eq: +0.301 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
50.41% (G:13.71% B:0.49%)
49.59% (G:14.33% B:1.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.297...+0.305) - [0.4%]
Duration: 18 hours 08 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 13/8.

At this rather extreme score I am looking to increase gammon chances and make plays leading to more gammonish positions. Therefore I’ll bring two checkers down, bringing more checkers to aim at good points on my side of the board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---cEa--d-e----B-:0:0:1:62:8:0:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 63
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBBBCAA------------bbcg-:2:-1:1:41:4:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout18/4 6/5eq: +0.938
Player:
Opponent:
97.01% (G:2.76% B:0.05%)
2.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.938...+0.939) - [89.7%]
Duration: 41.8 seconds
2.playedRollout18/4 7/6eq: +0.937 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.97% (G:2.70% B:0.05%)
3.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.937...+0.938) - [10.3%]
Duration: 37.0 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 8/4 7/6
[18] 8/4 6/5
[ 2] 6/1
[ 1] 8/7 6/2
[ 1] 8/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4 6/5

We want to place our checkers on the 6, 5 and 4 points so we should play 8/4.

Next we would like our checkers on those points to be evenly distributed so we should play 6/5 rather than 7/6. The difference will probably be very small. Both handle large doubles.



USBGF Members: 21 6/5 4/2


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 55
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBCBBCC--------------bbcg-:2:-1:1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 51
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBBBCBA------------bbcgA:2:-1:1:66:4:0:0:11:10
to play 66

1.xgRollout1Bar/13 7/1*(2) eq: +0.937
Player:
Opponent:
96.96% (G:2.73% B:0.05%)
3.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.936...+0.938) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/1* eq: +0.930 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
96.17% (G:5.40% B:0.16%)
3.83% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.929...+0.931) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[41] b/1*
[ 9] b/13 7/1*(2)
[ 1] b/7 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/1*

We should hit with Bar/1*. We may not have a great chance of winning a Gammon after this play but it has to be more chance than 7/1*(2).

It is very unlikely we will get into trouble after Bar/1*. So low risk and a chance at winning a Gammon.



Neil Kazaross: 65 no play
USBGF Members: 42 7/1


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 63
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBBBCAA------------bbcg-:2:-1:1:41:4:0:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBBBCB---------A-dbAeba-:2:-1:1:63:4:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.Rollout121/18 17/11eq: +0.950
Player:
Opponent:
97.03% (G:5.46% B:0.21%)
2.97% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.949...+0.951) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 32 seconds
2.playedRollout117/8eq: +0.947 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:6.13% B:0.24%)
3.22% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.946...+0.948) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout121/12eq: +0.947 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.90% (G:5.39% B:0.18%)
3.10% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.946...+0.948) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout121/15 17/14eq: +0.946 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
96.87% (G:5.30% B:0.16%)
3.13% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.945...+0.947) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 30 seconds
5.Rollout117/11 6/3eq: +0.937 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
96.47% (G:5.79% B:0.18%)
3.53% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.936...+0.938) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 17/8
[ 5] 21/18 17/11
[ 2] 21/15 17/14
[ 2] 21/12
[ 1] 17/11 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 17/8

We should play 17/8 here, as we want to bring another checker as close as possible to attack Neil’s checker on his 24 point.

Also however small the chance we have of picking up a second checker, it has to be better than when we are not back on Neil’s 4 point. If nothing else, Neil will not be moving a checker to his 4 point while we are there so that must make his eventual bear off less efficient.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBBBCBA----------dbAeba-:2:-1:-1:22:4:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout16/4*(2) 3/1(2)eq: -0.942
Player:
Opponent:
3.76% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
96.24% (G:7.44% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.943...-0.941) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout16/4*(4) eq: -0.954 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
4.23% (G:0.09% B:0.01%)
95.77% (G:12.54% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.955...-0.953) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout15/1(2)eq: -0.958 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
2.64% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
97.36% (G:5.12% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.958...-0.957) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4*(2) 3/1(2).

Playing when primed deeply into the opponents’ board often leaves one with an array of miserable options to play like this 22. I spent some time considering all three reasonable plays. First of all, my Gammon Cost (GC) here is about 0.27 as it costs me 10.5% to lose a gammon vs. the 39.5% I gain from winning the game. This is not as bad as the 0.50 gammon cost for money play, but it still is significant.

1) Just close my board with 6/4*(2) 3/1(2). However, this goes against the general principle of not slowing them down when you’re primed, but that hardly matters since I have almost no chance to crack their prime with other plays. The problem is that after the closeout, I have 6 blotting rolls so I’ll be hit right after that play a bit more than 5% of the time, and could end up hit after the next couple of rolls if I blot again. Maybe I get hit soon about 7% of the time.

2) 6/4*(4) keeps a 4 prime and hopes to force their blot safely away with 9 rolls. But the big problem is the 30.5% of the time they hit me. I am then very unlikely to crack their prime and then win as I’d basically have to call the next few rolls exactly as needed. I also can get hit later as well, so maybe I soon end up hit 33% of the time. This seems to be too much. While this play could be best at DMP, I have to reject it here due to too many gammons lost and that I can’t expect to win very often if I am lucky enough to anchor after being hit.

3) 5/1(2) is safe for the moment, but can cost me later by further reducing my poor racing chances due to gaps after they close me out, or by me being forced to leave a blot due to gaps (they may hit me on their ace pt and I could return hit). This play just doesn’t look right to me.

So I am back to closing my board for now.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBBBCBA----------bbbcbcA:2:-1:-1:41:4:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/5 6/2eq: -0.933
Player:
Opponent:
3.80% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
96.20% (G:5.99% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.934...-0.933) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 55 seconds
2.xgRollout15/4 5/1eq: -0.941 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
3.80% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
96.20% (G:7.42% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.942...-0.940) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 6/2.

I should break from the rear, killing 5’s and leaving no gap and trying to get rid of the nuisance on the bar.



USBGF Members: 43 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 65
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBBBCBA-----------cbcccA:2:-1:-1:21:4:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout15/4 3/1eq: -0.935
Player:
Opponent:
3.78% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
96.22% (G:6.14% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.936...-0.934) - [86.4%]
Duration: 19 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout15/3 2/1eq: -0.936 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.76% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
96.24% (G:6.17% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.937...-0.935) - [12.4%]
Duration: 16 minutes 21 seconds
3.xgRollout15/2eq: -0.936 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.77% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
96.23% (G:6.37% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.937...-0.936) - [1.2%]
Duration: 17 minutes 16 seconds
4.Rollout14/3 4/2eq: -0.943 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
3.44% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
96.56% (G:5.93% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.944...-0.942) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout13/1 2/1eq: -0.944 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
3.68% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
96.32% (G:7.47% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.945...-0.944) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/4 3/1.

I don’t think leaving a gap is correct, although that play leaves me quite a few spares. I think it is best to try to minimize shot numbers with 5/4 3/1.



USBGF Members: 52 no play
Neil Kazaross: 55 no play
USBGF Members: 33 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 62
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBBBCBA-----------bcbcdA:2:-1:-1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout12/1eq: -0.937
Player:
Opponent:
3.75% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
96.25% (G:6.38% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.938...-0.936) - [53.3%]
Duration: 17 minutes 55 seconds
2.xgRollout14/3eq: -0.937 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
3.77% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
96.23% (G:6.49% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.938...-0.936) - [46.7%]
Duration: 16 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 2/1.

As awkward as it looks, I’ll stick with the plan of trying to leave fewest blotting rolls if they dance and play 2/1.



USBGF Members: 21 no play
Neil Kazaross: 66 no play
USBGF Members: 33 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBBBCBA-----------bcbbeA:2:-1:-1:21:4:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout15/4 5/3eq: -0.923
Player:
Opponent:
3.83% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
96.17% (G:3.89% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.925...-0.921) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout14/1eq: -0.950 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
3.73% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
96.27% (G:8.62% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.952...-0.948) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds
3.Rollout13/2 3/1eq: -0.969 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
3.35% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
96.65% (G:10.06% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.971...-0.967) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/4 5/3.

Now I safely clear from the rear.



USBGF Members: 41 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 58
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBBBCBA------------dcbeA:2:-1:-1:32:4:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout14/2 4/1eq: -0.935
Player:
Opponent:
3.74% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
96.26% (G:5.80% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.936...-0.934) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout14/1 3/1eq: -0.939 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
3.69% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
96.31% (G:6.29% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.940...-0.938) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 4/2 4/1.

I think I have to play 4/2 4/1 as it seems to be a bit better for the long term.



USBGF Members: 32 no play
Neil Kazaross: 62 3/1


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 51
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBBBCBA------------bbcgA:2:-1:1:66:4:0:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBBBBB---A-------ebBeb--:2:-1:1:54:4:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout121/17 11/6eq: +0.968
Player:
Opponent:
97.57% (G:6.34% B:0.24%)
2.43% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.966...+0.969) - [99.3%]
Duration: 7 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout121/16 11/7eq: +0.964 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
97.40% (G:6.53% B:0.27%)
2.60% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.962...+0.966) - [0.7%]
Duration: 7 minutes 03 seconds
3.xgRollout121/12eq: +0.957 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
97.28% (G:6.07% B:0.19%)
2.72% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.955...+0.959) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 12 seconds
4.Rollout121/17 21/16eq: +0.956 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
97.28% (G:5.63% B:0.13%)
2.72% (G:0.03% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.954...+0.958) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 43 seconds
5.Rollout111/2eq: +0.900 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
95.32% (G:5.79% B:0.24%)
4.68% (G:0.37% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.897...+0.902) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 12 seconds
6.Rollout121/16 7/3eq: +0.677 (-0.290)
Player:
Opponent:
88.35% (G:5.44% B:0.17%)
11.65% (G:3.91% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.675...+0.680) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 38 seconds
7.Rollout121/17 7/2eq: +0.659 (-0.309)
Player:
Opponent:
87.64% (G:5.56% B:0.19%)
12.36% (G:4.07% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.656...+0.662) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 44 seconds
8.Rollout17/3 7/2eq: +0.585 (-0.383)
Player:
Opponent:
84.99% (G:3.37% B:0.13%)
15.01% (G:2.19% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.582...+0.588) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 28 seconds
9.Rollout111/6 7/3eq: +0.571 (-0.396)
Player:
Opponent:
84.51% (G:3.64% B:0.09%)
15.49% (G:3.16% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.569...+0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 21/17 11/6
[12] 21/17 21/16
[ 4] 21/16 11/7
[ 1] 21/12
[ 1] 11/2
[ 1] 11/6 7/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/17 11/6

Let’s play 11/6 so that 65 closes our board. Then 21/17 is best as we are not afraid of Neil hitting loose – in fact it would make us very happy if he did.



Neil Kazaross: 51 b/24 6/1


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBBBCB---------A-dbAeba-:2:-1:1:63:4:0:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBBBB-----AAA----ebBeb--:2:-1:1:21:4:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout114/11eq: +0.712
Player:
Opponent:
88.81% (G:6.46% B:0.17%)
11.19% (G:3.79% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.708...+0.716) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout114/13 12/10eq: +0.671 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
87.56% (G:6.00% B:0.17%)
12.44% (G:4.02% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.668...+0.674) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout112/9eq: +0.645 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
86.59% (G:5.86% B:0.19%)
13.41% (G:3.92% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.642...+0.649) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout113/10eq: +0.629 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
85.91% (G:5.91% B:0.11%)
14.09% (G:4.34% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.624...+0.633) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 34 seconds
5.Rollout113/11 12/11eq: +0.614 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
85.28% (G:5.73% B:0.21%)
14.72% (G:3.59% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.611...+0.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 14 seconds
6.Rollout114/12 13/12eq: +0.550 (-0.162)
Player:
Opponent:
83.20% (G:5.66% B:0.17%)
16.80% (G:4.29% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.546...+0.554) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[47] 14/11
[ 2] 14/12 13/12


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 14/11

Same as last time, we need to maximize our shots for Neil’s best roll of 61. Therefore, we should play 14/11.



Neil Kazaross: 44 no play
USBGF Members: 65 13/7 12/7
Neil Kazaross: 42 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBBBBB---A-------ebBeb--:2:-1:1:54:4:0:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBBBB-----A-----BebBeb--:2:-1:1:54:4:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout118/14 18/13eq: +0.661
Player:
Opponent:
87.12% (G:6.13% B:0.22%)
12.88% (G:4.15% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.657...+0.665) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout121/17 21/16eq: +0.640 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
86.16% (G:4.78% B:0.15%)
13.84% (G:3.09% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.636...+0.645) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout121/17 18/13eq: +0.636 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
86.40% (G:5.48% B:0.22%)
13.60% (G:4.08% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.632...+0.641) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 32 seconds
4.Rollout118/13 12/8eq: +0.598 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
84.98% (G:5.69% B:0.22%)
15.02% (G:4.27% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.595...+0.602) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 23 seconds
5.Rollout118/14 12/7eq: +0.595 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
85.40% (G:6.61% B:0.20%)
14.60% (G:6.24% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.592...+0.599) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 30 seconds
6.Rollout121/16 18/14eq: +0.580 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
84.49% (G:5.66% B:0.22%)
15.51% (G:4.47% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.576...+0.585) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 59 seconds
7.Rollout118/9eq: +0.575 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
83.97% (G:5.82% B:0.23%)
16.03% (G:4.42% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.571...+0.579) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 24 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 18/14 18/13
[ 7] 18/14 12/7
[ 5] 21/17 21/16
[ 3] 18/9
[ 2] 18/13 12/8
[ 1] 21/16 18/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 18/14 18/13

Our biggest concern is if Neil rolls a 61 from the bar. We therefore have to play 18/13 so we hit with 6’s as well as 5’s.

Then if we play the 4 off the anchor we just give Neil 11 and 21 as better rolls from the bar, so we have to keep the anchor.

That really just leaves 18/14 giving us 43 as another hitting roll if Neil rolls 61 from the bar.



Neil Kazaross: 62 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBBBB-----AAA----ebBeb--:2:-1:1:21:4:0:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBBBB-------A---AebBebA-:2:-1:1:62:4:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout124/16eq: +0.504
Player:
Opponent:
81.75% (G:5.84% B:0.20%)
18.25% (G:5.13% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.500...+0.509) - [100.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 08 seconds
2.playedRollout124/18 14/12eq: +0.485 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
81.12% (G:5.59% B:0.19%)
18.88% (G:5.56% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.481...+0.490) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout121/13eq: +0.425 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
80.25% (G:7.28% B:0.24%)
19.75% (G:7.93% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.420...+0.430) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout121/15 14/12eq: +0.394 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
79.24% (G:7.29% B:0.30%)
20.76% (G:8.52% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.389...+0.399) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 45 seconds
5.Rollout121/15 18/16eq: +0.385 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:
78.97% (G:7.01% B:0.30%)
21.03% (G:8.23% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.380...+0.390) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 57 seconds
6.Rollout118/12 14/12eq: +0.381 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:
78.16% (G:7.41% B:0.35%)
21.84% (G:7.28% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.376...+0.386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 46 seconds
7.Rollout118/10eq: +0.358 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:
77.83% (G:7.23% B:0.42%)
22.17% (G:8.38% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.353...+0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91009404
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 24/18 14/12
[25] 24/16
[ 1] 21/15 18/16
[ 1] 21/13
[ 1] 18/10


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 14/12

We want to escape our rearmost checker 24/18 and then we are only worried about Neil rolling a 61 from the bar and escaping bar/18. We want to have a checker within direct hitting range of our 7 point so we should play 14/12.



Neil Kazaross: 33 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBBBB-----A-----BebBeb--:2:-1:1:54:4:0:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBBBB-------A---AebBebA-:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 79.40% (G:6.51% B:0.24%) 81.14% (G:6.41% B:0.33%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 20.60% (G:6.13% B:0.14%) 18.86% (G:6.35% B:0.21%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.581 +1.071
Cubeful Equities
xg No redouble:+0.875±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878)
played Redouble/Take:+0.874 (-0.001)±0.004 (+0.870..+0.878)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.125)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.8%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:66.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 hours 38 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Redouble to 4
[23] No Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Redouble

Technically this is not a Redouble, but we are playing Neil so it is tempting. However, we might want to wait until our back checker on the 24 point is anywhere else. Even if it was moved 24/21 then it would be a Redouble and an easy Take. We want to avoid Neil entering with a 51, 21 or 11 and hitting our 24 point checker.


Neil Kazaross takes.

I was hoping to not be recubed here, but that doesn’t mean that I have to pass. I think I can probably win this position about 20% of the time as their checkers are far back and they need to get that checker off my ace point before I enter and can threaten it. 20% would mean that I have to pass for money, but at this score I have tremendous recube vig to send the cube back at 8 since I’ll be risking only my meager match equity at 3-away/11-away (slightly more than 10%) while gaining about 26% match equity if I win with the cube on 8. In addition, my cubeless take point here is a bit less than the normal 25%. Gammons aren’t too common from here, but they also are more costly to them than to me at this score.

So it looks like I have to take this at this score. I’ll look silly if I dance a few more times, but that’s backgammon. The additional factor in taking is that my moves are basically forced whereas they will have some checker play decisions and could make some small errors along the way.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBBBB-------A---AebBebA-:2:-1:1:62:4:0:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 74
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BBBAA------A--becBe-B-:1:1:1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout115/14 8/3eq: -0.285
Player:
Opponent:
42.25% (G:3.39% B:0.13%)
57.75% (G:23.64% B:1.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.288...-0.283) - [84.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 7/6eq: -0.288 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
41.96% (G:3.32% B:0.13%)
58.04% (G:23.40% B:1.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.291...-0.285) - [9.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
3.xgRollout115/10 8/7eq: -0.288 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
41.74% (G:3.23% B:0.15%)
58.26% (G:22.96% B:1.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.291...-0.286) - [5.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
4.Rollout115/9eq: -0.290 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
41.94% (G:3.40% B:0.15%)
58.06% (G:23.53% B:1.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.293...-0.287) - [0.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[4] 15/14 8/3
[1] 15/10 8/7
[1] 15/9



Neil Kazaross: 53 7/2 5/2
USBGF Members: 64 24/18* 7/3
Neil Kazaross: 66 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBBBB-------A---AebBebA-:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BBB-A--A---Ab-becBc-B-:1:1:1:31:4:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout115/12 8/7eq: -0.301
Player:
Opponent:
40.11% (G:4.79% B:0.21%)
59.89% (G:21.42% B:1.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.304...-0.299) - [96.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 57 minutes
2.playedRollout111/7eq: -0.304 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
40.14% (G:4.78% B:0.23%)
59.86% (G:21.71% B:1.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.307...-0.302) - [3.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes
3.Rollout215/14 11/8eq: -0.321 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
39.25% (G:4.63% B:0.22%)
60.75% (G:21.39% B:1.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.326...-0.315) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 50 seconds
4.Rollout215/11eq: -0.321 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
39.27% (G:4.61% B:0.22%)
60.73% (G:21.56% B:1.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.327...-0.315) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 32 seconds
5.Rollout215/12 11/10eq: -0.327 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
39.29% (G:4.57% B:0.21%)
60.71% (G:21.90% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.333...-0.321) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 11/7
[13] 15/12 8/7
[ 5] 11/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/7

We want to make our 3 point so we need to keep our checkers diversified and thus should avoid 11/8.

We should play 11/7, as it gives us a 54 to make the 3 point next roll.



Neil Kazaross: 33 9/3(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 74
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BBBAA------A--becBe-B-:1:1:1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BBB-A----A--bbbebCb-B-:1:1:1:62:4:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout121/15 13/11eq: -0.414
Player:
Opponent:
35.81% (G:3.45% B:0.17%)
64.19% (G:21.84% B:1.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.417...-0.412) - [96.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.xgRollout121/13eq: -0.417 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
35.69% (G:3.35% B:0.16%)
64.31% (G:21.73% B:1.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.420...-0.415) - [4.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
3.Rollout121/15 8/6eq: -0.420 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
35.47% (G:3.41% B:0.14%)
64.53% (G:21.66% B:1.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.422...-0.418) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 21/15 13/11
[ 6] 21/15 8/6
[ 2] 21/13
[ 1] 13/7 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/15 13/11

We need to preserve our timing which means we are really grateful that we just rolled any 6 except 66. We have to play 21/15 with the 6 so we can preserve the timing we have.

Next 15/13 or 13/11 – either will do. I have a slight preference for 13/11 as we want to keep our checkers diversified on different points, but it probably does not matter much.



Neil Kazaross: 53 8/5 8/3


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BBB-A--A---Ab-becBc-B-:1:1:1:31:4:0:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 114
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 174
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BAB-A---aBa-bcbdbC--B-:1:1:1:53:4:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.662
Player:
Opponent:
26.20% (G:2.52% B:0.10%)
73.80% (G:23.28% B:1.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.664...-0.659) - [99.6%]
Duration: 3 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.666 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
26.44% (G:2.55% B:0.10%)
73.56% (G:24.10% B:1.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.669...-0.664) - [0.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 26 minutes
3.playedRollout113/5eq: -0.667 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
26.97% (G:2.85% B:0.15%)
73.03% (G:25.36% B:1.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.670...-0.665) - [0.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 46 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 13/5
[23] 13/10 13/8
[ 1] 8/5 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10 13/8

Although we really want to make our 5 point with 13/5, this gives Neil the chance to put another of our checkers behind his 5 prime. This will increase our gammon loses.

We also want to leave the 5 point slotted so let’s discard 8/3 6/3 next.

That leaves us with 13/10 13/8.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 114
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BBB-A---aAa-bcbdbC--B-:1:1:-1:55:4:0:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout113/3 11/6 8/3eq: +0.478
Player:
Opponent:
66.09% (G:23.10% B:1.72%)
33.91% (G:2.97% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.472...+0.484) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 19 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 11/6 7/2(2)eq: +0.361 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
61.41% (G:23.12% B:1.64%)
38.59% (G:4.25% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.354...+0.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/3 11/6 8/3.

I don’t want a bunch of blots and my 5 prime could still be useful, so I’ll play 13/3 11/6 8/3.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BBB-A----A--bbbebCb-B-:1:1:1:62:4:0:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 178
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-B-B---bBb--cbdbBA-B-:1:1:1:31:4:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout122/21 8/5eq: -0.525
Player:
Opponent:
31.39% (G:4.02% B:0.13%)
68.61% (G:22.49% B:1.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.531...-0.520) - [100.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.558 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
31.94% (G:4.00% B:0.20%)
68.06% (G:26.37% B:2.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.566...-0.551) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 07 seconds
3.Rollout18/7 8/5eq: -0.561 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
32.07% (G:4.35% B:0.19%)
67.93% (G:26.73% B:2.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.567...-0.555) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 24 seconds
4.Rollout122/21 13/10eq: -0.570 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
30.81% (G:4.07% B:0.12%)
69.19% (G:25.17% B:1.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.576...-0.564) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 31 seconds
5.Rollout122/21 6/3eq: -0.594 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
29.51% (G:3.14% B:0.20%)
70.49% (G:23.99% B:1.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.600...-0.588) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 47 seconds
6.Rollout113/9eq: -0.601 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
30.97% (G:3.89% B:0.15%)
69.03% (G:27.92% B:2.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.608...-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 13 seconds
7.Rollout113/10 8/7eq: -0.606 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
31.52% (G:4.11% B:0.17%)
68.48% (G:29.01% B:2.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.613...-0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 28 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 22/21 8/5
[ 2] 8/7 8/5
[ 1] 24/21 22/21
[ 1] 8/5 6/5
[ 1] 13/10 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/21 8/5

We really need to improve our board here by playing 8/5.

It would be really nice to make the 22 point anchor but if we do not play 22/21 we risk being pointed on. If we do play 22/21 then any 5 or 6 helps us preserve our timing.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 174
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BAB-A---bBb--cbdbC--B-:1:1:-1:42:4:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/9 11/9eq: +0.605
Player:
Opponent:
72.09% (G:22.05% B:1.36%)
27.91% (G:3.12% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.599...+0.611) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout111/5eq: +0.493 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
67.64% (G:22.08% B:1.60%)
32.36% (G:4.42% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.486...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 37 seconds
3.Rollout113/7eq: +0.493 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
67.45% (G:22.10% B:1.71%)
32.55% (G:4.84% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.487...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout113/11 13/9eq: +0.491 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
67.85% (G:21.10% B:1.54%)
32.15% (G:4.48% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.485...+0.497) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 49 seconds
5.Rollout111/9 11/7eq: +0.488 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
67.38% (G:22.27% B:1.64%)
32.62% (G:5.20% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.481...+0.495) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 11/9.

This 42 is a nice roll to let me make my 5 prime. The idea is to hope to minimize the chances of them being able to release their spare on my 4 point and also to restrain any more checkers that I may hit. Hopefully, this results in them being forced to damage their home board situation soon. My outfield blots aren’t of much consequence here.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 114
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 174
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BAB-A---aBa-bcbdbC--B-:1:1:1:53:4:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 186
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BaB-A---bCa--cbdbB--BA:1:1:1:53:4:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.560
Player:
Opponent:
31.13% (G:4.84% B:0.30%)
68.87% (G:25.57% B:1.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.567...-0.553) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 8/3eq: -0.605 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
31.01% (G:4.71% B:0.30%)
68.99% (G:28.56% B:2.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.612...-0.598) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 21/16eq: -0.818 (-0.258)
Player:
Opponent:
29.13% (G:4.82% B:0.45%)
70.87% (G:38.82% B:6.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.826...-0.810) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[42] b/22 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 13/8

There is no way we should abandon our 21 point anchor with 21/16. That leaves 8/3 which buries a checker or 13/8 which makes the 8 point. 13/8 just has to be correct.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 178
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BaB-B---bBa--cbdbBA-B-:1:1:-1:54:4:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout120/11eq: +0.549
Player:
Opponent:
69.87% (G:22.25% B:1.39%)
30.13% (G:3.79% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.543...+0.555) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout120/15 11/7eq: +0.522 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
68.51% (G:22.81% B:1.40%)
31.49% (G:4.60% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.517...+0.528) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout111/7 8/3* eq: +0.510 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
66.27% (G:26.68% B:2.21%)
33.73% (G:6.75% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.503...+0.517) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
4.Rollout120/16 8/3* eq: +0.492 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
66.69% (G:25.29% B:1.84%)
33.31% (G:7.89% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.485...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
5.Rollout120/16 11/6eq: +0.488 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
67.19% (G:22.82% B:1.49%)
32.81% (G:5.41% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.482...+0.494) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 19 seconds
6.Rollout18/3* 7/3eq: +0.458 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
63.44% (G:27.85% B:2.48%)
36.56% (G:6.87% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.451...+0.465) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/11.

A nice take of my double by the USBGF Members as they have somewhat of a two-way game that can go either forwards or backwards. My plan here should be based upon not letting them to be able to quickly get anything going forwards. Therefore, it looks really bad for me to break my prime and point on the 3. This leaves too many return shots and too many blots. I also don’t need to increase their timing should they dance. I shouldn’t focus too much on which backgame points they may hold, but focus on making sure I don’t lose this game before they have only a backgame.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 178
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-B-B---bBb--cbdbBA-B-:1:1:1:31:4:0:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-B-BAB-A---bCa--cbdbB--B-:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.72% (G:23.18% B:1.93%) 65.71% (G:23.25% B:1.85%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.28% (G:7.65% B:0.30%) 34.29% (G:7.61% B:0.38%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.483 +1.030
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.848 (-0.025)±0.009 (+0.838..+0.857)
played Double/Take:+0.872±0.018 (+0.854..+0.890)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.128)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:99.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] Take
[15] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

A good score based double by Neil. If I was playing a weak player I might consider passing but would still take. However, we are playing Neil so he will probably outplay us in the rest of the match so we should lean towards taking.

We have a 3 point board so Neil will stay on the bar 25% of the time. He could enter without hitting, which is also good for us. Neil has the blot on his 11 point which we could hit.

If Neil hits our checker on our 5 point then we get enough timing for a backgame and might be able to upgrade our 41 to a 42 or 43 backgame.

Against Neil we would be happy to be able to get our position to where we could redouble to 4 even if it is not technically correct.

Everything says take and to quote Malcom Davis ‘let’s play some backgammon’.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-B-BAB-A---bCa--cbdbB--B-:1:1:-1:41:4:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout1Bar/20* eq: +0.556
Player:
Opponent:
67.95% (G:26.47% B:2.08%)
32.05% (G:4.92% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.548...+0.563) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 11/7eq: +0.436 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:
65.99% (G:21.26% B:1.60%)
34.01% (G:7.10% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.430...+0.443) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20*.

I have no reason to not hit, as I don’t want them to make their 5 point potentially trapping my back checker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 186
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BaB-A---bCa--cbdbB--BA:1:1:1:53:4:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 176
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BAC-B---bCa--cbdbB--B-:0:0:1:64:4:0:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout18/2* 6/2eq: -0.878
Player:
Opponent:
34.38% (G:7.73% B:0.39%)
65.62% (G:23.31% B:1.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.884...-0.873) - [95.4%]
Duration: 10 hours 25 minutes
2.xgRollout113/3eq: -0.884 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
35.08% (G:6.11% B:0.37%)
64.92% (G:24.28% B:1.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.890...-0.877) - [4.6%]
Duration: 10 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout213/9 13/7eq: -0.915 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
36.87% (G:6.02% B:0.37%)
63.13% (G:28.42% B:2.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.932...-0.898) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
4.Rollout213/7 6/2* eq: -0.934 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
34.68% (G:6.30% B:0.33%)
65.32% (G:25.64% B:2.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.950...-0.918) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
5.Rollout221/11eq: -1.000 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:
34.24% (G:6.77% B:0.38%)
65.76% (G:29.40% B:3.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.011...-0.989) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 8/2* 6/2
[ 7] 13/3
[ 3] 13/9 13/7
[ 2] 21/11
[ 1] 13/7 6/2*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2* 6/2

Over the board I would play 8/2* 6/2 as it wins more gammons than 13/3, but 13/3 could very well be the best play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-B-BAB-A---bCa--cbdbB--B-:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-12-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 181
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-A-D-C---dCc--c-d-B--B-:0:0:1:41:4:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/4 6/5eq: -0.413
Player:
Opponent:
42.28% (G:11.11% B:0.51%)
57.72% (G:15.66% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.426...-0.400) - [99.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 21/20eq: -0.439 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
40.99% (G:9.88% B:0.41%)
59.01% (G:13.77% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.452...-0.426) - [0.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 46 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 8/4eq: -0.451 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
40.51% (G:10.65% B:0.46%)
59.49% (G:14.01% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.461...-0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 10 minutes
4.Rollout121/20 8/4eq: -0.527 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
39.75% (G:10.35% B:0.48%)
60.25% (G:16.65% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.539...-0.515) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 8/4 6/5 [coin flip!]
[22] 24/23 8/4
[ 2] 24/20 21/20
[ 1] 21/20 8/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4 6/5

We have to cover 8/4 then decide what to do with the 1.

When playing a backgame, we want to play purely, i.e. we want to make our points in order. Here the next point we want to make is our 5 point so we should just go ahead and slot it with 6/5.

We may not end up in a backgame but how ever this game develops, having our 5 point will be good.

If Neil hits our checker on the 5 point, he may give us the timing we need to play a backgame. So 6/5 has no real downside.



Neil Kazaross: 66 13/7(2) 11/5(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 176
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BAC-B---bCa--cbdbB--B-:0:0:1:64:4:0:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 184
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----a-E-Ca--dCb--c-d-B--AA:0:0:1:21:4:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 6/4* eq: -0.468
Player:
Opponent:
40.91% (G:10.01% B:0.49%)
59.09% (G:15.65% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.481...-0.455) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 16 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.526 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
39.58% (G:9.41% B:0.38%)
60.42% (G:15.90% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.538...-0.513) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22eq: -0.566 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
37.93% (G:8.98% B:0.35%)
62.07% (G:14.59% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.578...-0.553) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 27 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 8/7eq: -0.602 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent:
37.58% (G:8.89% B:0.31%)
62.42% (G:16.03% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.615...-0.590) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 32 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/23 24/23eq: -0.636 (-0.168)
Player:
Opponent:
36.48% (G:8.46% B:0.46%)
63.52% (G:15.36% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.649...-0.624) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] b/24 6/4*
[ 3] b/23 6/5
[ 2] b/23 24/23


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 6/4*

My first reaction was to play Bar/23 6/5. Fortunately I looked deeper, as this is not the right play. This is a position that could develop into a backgame but it is not certain that it will. So before we commit to a backgame it is worth trying to go forward. Therefore, fighting for the 4 point with bar/24 6/4* is best. If this was definitely going to be a backgame then we would rather enter bar/23 to try for a much superior 24 backgame over a 14 backgame, but we should try to go forward.

The good news is that we are unstacking our 6 point and do not care too much if hit. And we could end up playing a backgame that is not a 14 backgame.

Over the board with the clock ticking, I could easily have made an error here. But we have to fight for our 4 point and try to go forward.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 181
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---A-D-Ca--dCb--c-d-B--B-:0:0:-1:52:4:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 16/11eq: +0.428
Player:
Opponent:
58.72% (G:13.99% B:0.67%)
41.28% (G:10.51% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.416...+0.440) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 16/14eq: +0.329 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
56.37% (G:13.66% B:0.69%)
43.63% (G:12.08% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.317...+0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 13/11eq: +0.324 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
56.65% (G:12.97% B:0.68%)
43.35% (G:11.98% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.311...+0.337) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 39 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 16/11.

I have a nice play that caters to my needs to stay out of trouble and try to make some good points. I have no need to provoke an exchange of hits on their side of the table with a play like b/20 16/14, because that basically gives them a free shot to attack me. If the attack works, I lose ground and if it fails, they don’t mind getting some more pieces sent back to my weak and non-priming board.

Their position is often described as a two-way game since they can try to block me or attack me and go forwards and if that fails fall into a very playable backgame. My best counter to that now is to not provoke them on their side of the board.

Therefore, b/23 16/11 seems quite clear and maybe I can make some new points soon. My checker on their 2 point isn’t yet in any danger.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 181
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-A-D-C---dCc--c-d-B--B-:0:0:1:41:4:0:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 175
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-E-C---dDb--c-d-A--B-:0:0:1:43:4:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout124/21 24/20eq: -0.372
Player:
Opponent:
41.66% (G:8.56% B:0.39%)
58.34% (G:10.72% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.376...-0.368) - [99.5%]
Duration: 19 hours 47 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 6/2eq: -0.380 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
41.51% (G:9.42% B:0.37%)
58.49% (G:11.52% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.385...-0.376) - [0.5%]
Duration: 19 hours 19 minutes
3.playedRollout224/21 13/9eq: -0.440 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
40.63% (G:9.40% B:0.41%)
59.37% (G:12.91% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.450...-0.429) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23404811
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/21 13/9
[11] 24/21 24/20
[ 3] 24/21 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20 24/21

Because Neil, has an advanced anchor we need one too so 24/21 has to be the 3.

If we play 13/9 then this just plays to Neil’s game plan. He is ahead in the race and would like to race. It is easiest to race if he puts one of our checkers on the bar at the same time. He wants to move his rearmost checker and hit us in the process.



Neil Kazaross: 32 21/16*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 184
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----a-E-Ca--dCb--c-d-B--AA:0:0:1:21:4:0:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 169
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 186
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-E-C--aeC---c-d-A--C-:0:0:1:65:4:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout124/13eq: -0.368
Player:
Opponent:
42.92% (G:9.95% B:0.47%)
57.08% (G:14.09% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.380...-0.356) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 29 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 13/8eq: -0.485 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
40.98% (G:10.07% B:0.57%)
59.02% (G:17.12% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.496...-0.474) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 13 minutes
3.Rollout121/10eq: -0.562 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent:
39.47% (G:9.57% B:0.47%)
60.53% (G:18.34% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.574...-0.550) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 10 minutes
4.Rollout124/18 8/3eq: -0.577 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:
39.51% (G:9.61% B:0.61%)
60.49% (G:19.17% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.588...-0.565) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 03 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 24/13
[ 1] 24/18 13/8
[ 1] 21/10


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/13

I have a saying – “Three checkers on the 24 point is the kiss of death.” Ok, it is probably a bit dramatic, but we should try to avoid leaving 3 checkers on the 24 point unless there is another priority. It is usually right to get the 3rd checker off the 24 point, and when it is wrong, it is not wrong by much.



Neil Kazaross: 32 14/11 13/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 175
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-E-C---dDb--c-d-A--B-:0:0:1:43:4:0:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 189
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-E-C---eC---c-d-a-ABA:0:0:1:21:4:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 23/21* eq: -0.328
Player:
Opponent:
44.35% (G:11.01% B:0.53%)
55.65% (G:14.99% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.341...-0.315) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.571 (-0.243)
Player:
Opponent:
40.65% (G:9.31% B:0.40%)
59.35% (G:21.08% B:1.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.584...-0.558) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25268299
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] b/24 23/21*
[ 5] b/23 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 23/21*

Before the roll we trail by 30 pips. If we hit bar/24 23/21* we will have reduced that to only trailing by 6 pips. We will have a checker on the 21 point which is a good point to anchor on.

Having 3 checkers on the 24 point is bad but Neil has only a one point board so we will have time to split off the 24 point.



Neil Kazaross: 65 b/14


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 169
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 186
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----b-E-C--aeC---c-d-A--C-:0:0:1:65:4:0:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10