USBGF OLM 2018-07-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 4
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBB----AA-------A-bB-:1:1:1:65:6:7:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout121/15 13/8eq: -2.470
Player:
Opponent:
0.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.32% (G:91.29% B:90.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.470...-2.469) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32.3 seconds
2.Rollout121/10eq: -2.471 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
0.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.33% (G:91.35% B:91.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.471...-2.470) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.2 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 12/6eq: -2.474 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
0.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.34% (G:91.50% B:91.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-2.474...-2.473) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59.3 seconds
4.Rollout124/18 13/8eq: -2.477 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
0.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.35% (G:91.69% B:88.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-2.477...-2.476) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.1 seconds
5.Rollout124/18 21/16eq: -2.479 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.36% (G:91.79% B:75.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.479...-2.478) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41.2 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37236461
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 21/15 13/8
[ 6] 24/18 13/8
[ 4] 21/10
[ 4] 24/18 21/16
[ 1] 13/8 12/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 13/8

We have to come down to 1 checker on the 24 point so that any 1 by Neil except 11 gives us a shot.

Then it would be great to have a 6 prime, so the 5 has to be played 13/8. This means we have to play 24/18 with the 6.



Neil Kazaross: 61 2/0
USBGF Members: 54 15/10 12/8
Neil Kazaross: 53 2/0


Neil Kazaross wins four points and wins the match.

USBGF OLM 2018-07-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 9
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBA--A--A--A----AacB-:1:1:1:43:6:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout116/12 10/7eq: -2.304
Player:
Opponent:
3.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.73% (G:85.44% B:82.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.306...-2.303) - [52.2%]
Duration: 26 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout121/17 10/7eq: -2.304 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.75% (G:85.44% B:81.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.306...-2.303) - [47.8%]
Duration: 26 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout124/20 10/7eq: -2.342 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
2.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.20% (G:86.99% B:78.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-2.343...-2.341) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 16/12 10/7
[ 6] 21/17 10/7
[ 5] 24/20 10/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/12 10/7

We need to hit to win or just get off the gammon. So we should play as though we will get a shot and hit it. Therefore we should play 10/7, making a 5 prime. After that we need to make the 8 point so we should play 16/12, bringing another checker within range to make it.

If this were for money we should try to get off the backgammon and play 24/20 21/18.



Neil Kazaross: 52 3/0 2/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 4
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBB----AA-------A-bB-:1:1:1:65:6:7:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 13
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-A-A-----A-A--AcbB-:1:1:1:51:6:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.Rollout121/20 18/13eq: -1.604
Player:
Opponent:
14.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.49% (G:61.81% B:59.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.607...-1.600) - [52.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
2.playedRollout118/13 8/7eq: -1.604 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
14.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.54% (G:61.74% B:59.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.608...-1.601) - [37.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
3.Rollout116/11 8/7eq: -1.606 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
14.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.58% (G:61.76% B:59.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.610...-1.603) - [9.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
4.Rollout118/13 16/15eq: -1.609 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
14.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.59% (G:61.97% B:59.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.612...-1.605) - [0.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
5.Rollout118/17 16/11eq: -1.613 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
14.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.64% (G:62.15% B:59.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.616...-1.609) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
6.Rollout221/15eq: -1.618 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
14.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.75% (G:62.27% B:57.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.627...-1.610) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 24 seconds
7.Rollout221/16 8/7eq: -1.622 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
14.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.98% (G:62.20% B:59.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.632...-1.613) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 02 seconds
8.Rollout221/20 10/5eq: -1.659 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
13.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.49% (G:63.38% B:60.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.667...-1.650) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds
9.Rollout216/15 10/5eq: -1.662 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
13.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.54% (G:63.43% B:60.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.670...-1.653) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 10 seconds
10.Rollout224/19 8/7eq: -1.741 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:
11.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.18% (G:65.66% B:53.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.750...-1.733) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 58 seconds
11.Rollout224/18eq: -1.745 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:
11.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.25% (G:65.71% B:50.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.752...-1.737) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 18/13 8/7
[ 3] 24/19 8/7
[ 2] 16/11 8/7
[ 2] 21/20 18/13
[ 2] 24/18
[ 1] 21/20 10/5
[ 1] 18/13 16/15
[ 1] 16/15 10/5
[ 1] 21/16 8/7
[ 1] 21/15



Neil Kazaross: 51 3/2 3/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 9
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBA--A--A--A----AacB-:1:1:1:43:6:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 18
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBAB-A-AA----A-A---dcC-:1:1:1:63:6:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/21 11/5eq: -1.857
Player:
Opponent:
10.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.61% (G:70.21% B:63.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.860...-1.854) - [75.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 16/13eq: -1.862 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
10.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.69% (G:70.35% B:60.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.865...-1.858) - [2.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout224/18 8/5eq: -1.862 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
10.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.69% (G:70.35% B:61.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.869...-1.855) - [9.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 49 seconds
4.xgRollout211/5 10/7eq: -1.862 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
10.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.71% (G:70.27% B:63.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.871...-1.854) - [12.6%]
Duration: 18 minutes 53 seconds
5.Rollout216/13 11/5eq: -1.869 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
10.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.89% (G:70.56% B:63.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.878...-1.861) - [0.3%]
Duration: 18 minutes 45 seconds
6.Rollout218/12 8/5eq: -1.885 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
9.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.15% (G:71.10% B:66.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.893...-1.877) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 52 seconds
7.Rollout224/21 24/18eq: -2.026 (-0.168)
Player:
Opponent:
8.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.89% (G:76.55% B:42.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-2.032...-2.019) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 24/21 11/5
[ 8] 24/18 8/5
[ 5] 11/5 10/7
[ 2] 18/12 8/5
[ 2] 24/21 24/18
[ 1] 24/18 16/13
[ 1] 16/13 11/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 11/5

We need to cover the blot on our 5 point with the 6 or 3. We do not much care about whether we are backgammoned as long as we are not gammoned. We are highly likely to be gammoned if we lose, so we need to focus on ensuring we win. We will only win if we get a shot, hit a shot and contain the hit checker. We cannot control the first two parts of what we need to do but we can focus build the best board / prime that we can.

I like leaving the checker on the 8 point where it is and playing 11/5. If we can make the 8 point we can block Neil in. After that we can either play 16/13 for better coverage or there may be times when we want to only have 1 checker on our 1 point to 24/21. In a chouette I would go with how my teammates felt but probably I would play 24/21.



Neil Kazaross: 42 3/0 2/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 13
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-A-A-----A-A--AcbB-:1:1:1:51:6:7:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 24
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 172
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBAB-A-AA----A-----fcD-:1:1:1:42:6:7:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout124/20 10/8eq: -1.795
Player:
Opponent:
11.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.17% (G:68.71% B:62.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.798...-1.792) - [49.6%]
Duration: 3 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 16/14eq: -1.796 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
11.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.18% (G:68.75% B:63.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.799...-1.793) - [23.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 11/9eq: -1.796 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
11.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.16% (G:68.84% B:63.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.799...-1.793) - [20.8%]
Duration: 3 hours 11 minutes
4.Rollout111/5eq: -1.798 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
11.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.24% (G:68.82% B:63.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.801...-1.795) - [2.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 11 minutes
5.Rollout111/7 10/8eq: -1.798 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
11.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.22% (G:68.88% B:63.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.801...-1.795) - [2.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
6.playedRollout124/18eq: -1.799 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
11.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.24% (G:68.86% B:62.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.802...-1.796) - [0.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
7.Rollout116/14 11/7eq: -1.799 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
11.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.25% (G:68.92% B:63.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.803...-1.796) - [0.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 08 minutes
8.Rollout216/12 10/8eq: -1.804 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
11.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.37% (G:68.97% B:63.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.811...-1.797) - [0.3%]
Duration: 30 minutes 20 seconds
9.Rollout216/12 11/9eq: -1.806 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
11.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.37% (G:69.07% B:63.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.813...-1.798) - [0.2%]
Duration: 26 minutes 21 seconds
10.Rollout216/10eq: -1.807 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
11.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.42% (G:69.06% B:63.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.814...-1.799) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 39 seconds
11.Rollout224/20 8/6eq: -1.817 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
11.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.54% (G:69.42% B:63.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.825...-1.809) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 22 seconds
12.Rollout211/7 8/6eq: -1.825 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
11.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.74% (G:69.52% B:63.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.832...-1.817) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 24/18
[13] 11/5
[ 3] 24/20 16/14
[ 2] 24/20 8/6
[ 1] 24/20 11/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/5

The cube is on 2 so losing a backgammon is no worse than losing a gammon. So how likely are we to lose a gammon and the match? I would say very likely if we lose so we should strengthen our offense rather than trying to get off the gammon.

There are lots of options here but making our 5 point with 11/5 gives us a solid board if we do hit.



Neil Kazaross: 54 3/0(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 18
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBAB-A-AA----A-A---dcC-:1:1:1:63:6:7:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 34
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 179
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BB-B-B-A--A--Aa---bdcBB:1:1:1:11:6:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.xgRollout1Bar/24(2) 16/15 8/7eq: -1.613
Player:
Opponent:
15.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.09% (G:64.97% B:57.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.616...-1.610) - [34.9%]
Duration: 5 hours 51 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/24(2) 13/11eq: -1.613 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
15.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.07% (G:65.07% B:57.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.617...-1.610) - [32.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 38 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24(2) 10/9 8/7eq: -1.615 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
15.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.13% (G:65.03% B:57.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.618...-1.611) - [10.5%]
Duration: 5 hours 37 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/24(2) 8/7(2)eq: -1.616 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
15.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.13% (G:65.10% B:57.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.619...-1.612) - [4.4%]
Duration: 6 hours 19 minutes
5.Rollout2Bar/24(2) 16/14eq: -1.618 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
15.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.14% (G:65.13% B:57.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.627...-1.610) - [7.5%]
Duration: 49 minutes 06 seconds
6.Rollout1Bar/24(2) 13/12 8/7eq: -1.619 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
15.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.21% (G:65.22% B:57.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.623...-1.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 00 minute
7.Rollout2Bar/24(2) 6/5(2)eq: -1.619 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
15.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.23% (G:65.09% B:58.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.627...-1.611) - [4.6%]
Duration: 38 minutes 43 seconds
8.Rollout1Bar/24(2) 8/7 6/5eq: -1.620 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
15.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.23% (G:65.02% B:57.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.623...-1.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 24 minutes
9.Rollout2Bar/24(2) 16/15 10/9eq: -1.621 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
15.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.15% (G:65.38% B:58.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.629...-1.613) - [1.8%]
Duration: 44 minutes 46 seconds
10.Rollout2Bar/24(2) 16/15 6/5eq: -1.621 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
15.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.23% (G:65.29% B:57.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.630...-1.613) - [1.4%]
Duration: 33 minutes 02 seconds
11.Rollout2Bar/24(2) 16/15 13/12eq: -1.622 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
15.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.21% (G:65.20% B:58.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.630...-1.614) - [1.2%]
Duration: 45 minutes 01 second
12.Rollout1Bar/24(2) 13/12 6/5eq: -1.622 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
15.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.27% (G:65.15% B:57.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.625...-1.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 56 minutes
13.Rollout2Bar/24(2) 13/12 10/9eq: -1.623 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
15.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.21% (G:65.30% B:58.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.632...-1.615) - [0.7%]
Duration: 37 minutes 29 seconds
14.Rollout2Bar/24(2) 10/8eq: -1.625 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
15.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.29% (G:65.35% B:58.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.634...-1.617) - [0.1%]
Duration: 56 minutes 07 seconds
15.Rollout2Bar/24(2) 10/9 6/5eq: -1.629 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
15.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.38% (G:65.25% B:58.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.637...-1.621) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 20 seconds
16.Rollout2Bar/24(2) 8/6eq: -1.633 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
15.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.43% (G:65.54% B:58.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.642...-1.625) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] b/24(2) 13/11
[ 8] b/24(2) 16/15 8/7
[ 3] b/24(2) 13/12 8/7
[ 3] b/24(2) 10/9 8/7
[ 2] b/24(2) 8/6
[ 1] b/24(2) 13/12 10/9
[ 1] b/24(2) 8/7(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24(2) 16/15 8/7

We should just maximize our chances of making the 5 point by playing 8/7.

For the last 1, I guess we should just play 16/15 rather than 13/12 as I cannot imagine we will get off the gammon if we do not hit.



Neil Kazaross: 32 8/3
USBGF Members: 21 8/5
Neil Kazaross: 61 4/3 4/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 24
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 172
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBAB-A-AA----A-----fcD-:1:1:1:42:6:7:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBaB-BBA--A--A----bdcB-:1:1:1:11:6:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.Rollout116/15 13/12 6/5*(2) eq: +0.405
Player:
Opponent:
58.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.82% (G:22.84% B:10.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.392...+0.418) - [100.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout113/12 9/8 6/5*(2) eq: +0.369 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
57.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.53% (G:24.04% B:11.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.357...+0.381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 35 seconds
3.Rollout113/11 6/5*(2) eq: +0.356 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
57.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.75% (G:23.97% B:11.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.343...+0.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 45 seconds
4.Rollout19/7 6/5*(2) eq: +0.339 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
57.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.97% (G:24.88% B:13.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.326...+0.352) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 36 seconds
5.playedRollout19/5* eq: +0.318 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
56.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.73% (G:26.38% B:17.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.306...+0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 11 seconds
6.Rollout18/7(2) 6/5*(2) eq: +0.288 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
55.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.04% (G:25.33% B:10.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.275...+0.301) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 30 seconds
7.Rollout113/12 10/9 6/5*(2) eq: +0.288 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
55.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.29% (G:25.07% B:9.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.275...+0.301) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 12 seconds
8.Rollout116/14 6/5*(2) eq: +0.284 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
55.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.26% (G:25.29% B:9.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.271...+0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 9/5*
[ 7] 16/15 13/12 6/5*(2)
[ 3] 13/11 6/5*(2)
[ 2] 8/7(2) 6/5*(2)
[ 1] 16/14 6/5*(2)
[ 1] 16/15 13/10
[ 1] 10/8 6/5*(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/15 13/12 6/5*(2)

We need to switch points to put Neil on the bar, so 6/5*(2) is the first two 1’s.

Next we should maximize builders by playing 13/12 giving us good 6’s.

So the last 1 should be played 16/15 as we want to maintain the blocking 9 and 8 points.



Neil Kazaross: 54 b/20*/16*
USBGF Members: 22 no play
Neil Kazaross: 53 16/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 34
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 179
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BB-B-B-A--A--Aa---bdcBB:1:1:1:11:6:7:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-aC-CB---B--A----bdcB-:1:1:1:42:6:7:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout113/11 9/5* eq: -0.029
Player:
Opponent:
49.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
50.83% (G:33.13% B:21.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.034...-0.024) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout116/14 9/5* eq: -0.043 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
48.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.16% (G:33.21% B:19.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.048...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 36 minutes
3.Rollout29/5* 8/6eq: -0.071 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
48.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.81% (G:33.91% B:20.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.083...-0.058) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
4.Rollout29/7 9/5* eq: -0.071 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
48.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.72% (G:34.17% B:20.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.083...-0.059) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
5.playedRollout28/4 6/4eq: -0.091 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
47.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
52.30% (G:33.63% B:18.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.101...-0.080) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
6.Rollout29/5* 5/3eq: -0.164 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
45.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.04% (G:34.18% B:15.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.175...-0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
7.Rollout29/5* 6/4eq: -0.185 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:
46.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
53.90% (G:36.81% B:23.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.197...-0.174) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
8.Rollout224/18eq: -0.406 (-0.376)
Player:
Opponent:
42.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.47% (G:41.45% B:4.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.417...-0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 8/4 6/4
[10] 16/14 9/5*
[ 4] 13/11 9/5*
[ 4] 24/18
[ 3] 9/5*/3
[ 1] 9/7 9/5*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 9/5*

We have to contain Neil’s checker. We need to hit and then close our board, so let’s hit 9/5* and look at the resulting position.

We can then either play 13/11 or 16/14. 16/14 stays with only 2 blots (apart from the blot on our 5 point) but we only have 3 direct covers, whereas after 13/11 we will have 4 blots (apart from the blot on our 5 point) but in return we get more covers.

At a normal match score we would be more inclined to play 16/14 but here at 5 away 4 away we would like to win a gammon with the cube on 2 so we should try to win and play the more aggressive 13/11 and see what happens.



Neil Kazaross: 53 20/15
USBGF Members: 21 13/10*
Neil Kazaross: 41 b/20


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBaB-BBA--A--A----bdcB-:1:1:1:11:6:7:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 31
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--C-CB---B------abdcBA:1:1:1:54:6:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/20* 20/16eq: +0.163
Player:
Opponent:
53.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.81% (G:28.81% B:14.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.151...+0.176) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20* 13/9eq: +0.067 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
51.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.89% (G:30.26% B:15.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.056...+0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20* 8/4eq: +0.058 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
51.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
48.80% (G:31.25% B:18.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.045...+0.070) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/20*/16
[ 5] b/20* 13/9
[ 2] b/20* 24/20


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20*/16

We want to keep the anchor and moving 20/16 gives us a double shot if Neil rolls 65 or 64 from the bar, so Bar/20*/16 is my play.



Neil Kazaross: 54 b/20


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-aC-CB---B--A----bdcB-:1:1:1:42:6:7:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB--D-CB--aB-a--abbbbbAA:1:1:1:41:6:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 6/2* eq: -0.754
Player:
Opponent:
25.40% (G:4.67% B:0.62%)
74.60% (G:31.44% B:13.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.763...-0.746) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 8/4eq: -0.798 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
25.08% (G:3.57% B:0.33%)
74.92% (G:32.84% B:14.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.806...-0.790) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24 13/9eq: -0.833 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
20.86% (G:3.18% B:0.26%)
79.14% (G:26.77% B:8.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.840...-0.826) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] b/24 6/2*
[ 7] b/24 13/9



Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23* 13/7
USBGF Members: 42 no play
Neil Kazaross: 11 10/6
USBGF Members: 52 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 107
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB--C-CB---B----bcbbbbBA:1:1:-1:21:6:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout123/20eq: +0.950
Player:
Opponent:
76.50% (G:39.00% B:18.43%)
23.50% (G:1.48% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.941...+0.958) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout124/21eq: +0.892 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
74.90% (G:38.84% B:18.90%)
25.10% (G:2.02% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.883...+0.900) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.Rollout123/21 6/5eq: +0.869 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
74.30% (G:38.23% B:18.59%)
25.70% (G:2.09% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.861...+0.877) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/20.

23/20 looks best to me so that I don’t have to shatter catastrophically with 44 next turn.



USBGF Members: 52 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B-aC-CB---B----bcbbbbBA:1:1:-1:64:6:7:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/14eq: +1.038
Player:
Opponent:
78.11% (G:41.12% B:18.15%)
21.89% (G:0.69% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.030...+1.046) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout120/10eq: +0.975 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
75.98% (G:41.60% B:19.66%)
24.02% (G:0.93% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.967...+0.983) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/14.

Here I just want to run towards home and minimize chances for accidents.



USBGF Members: 22 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-aC-CB-a-B----bcbbbbBA:1:1:-1:55:6:7:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout120/5 14/9eq: +1.159
Player:
Opponent:
77.30% (G:49.55% B:28.31%)
22.70% (G:0.13% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.156...+1.162) - [99.2%]
Duration: 7 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout120/10 14/4eq: +1.153 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
77.22% (G:49.40% B:28.31%)
22.78% (G:0.15% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.150...+1.157) - [0.8%]
Duration: 7 hours 15 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/5 14/9.

I don’t see much difference between leaving my spares on the 10 and 4 points or 9 and 5 points but 9 and 5 looks a bit more natural to me.



USBGF Members: 33 no play
Neil Kazaross: 66 9/3
USBGF Members: 43 no play
Neil Kazaross: 42 7/5 7/3
USBGF Members: 53 no play
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/9
USBGF Members: 64 no play
Neil Kazaross: 54 6/2 5/0
USBGF Members: 54 no play
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 31
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--C-CB---B------abdcBA:1:1:1:54:6:7:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB--D-BB--cC--a--cbbb-AA:1:1:1:52:6:7:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.586
Player:
Opponent:
32.27% (G:9.59% B:1.35%)
67.73% (G:35.19% B:3.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.594...-0.578) - [99.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/1* eq: -0.602 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
30.99% (G:8.59% B:0.84%)
69.01% (G:33.67% B:5.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.610...-0.593) - [0.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] b/23 13/8
[ 3] b/23 6/1*
[ 1] b/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 13/8

Neil has the stronger board so I do not want to hit 6/1*. Coming out 23/18 gives Neil 24 shots at our bar point, which is too many, as he has such a strong board. So we are left with 13/8 which brings another checker into the zone and puts a spare on the 8 point, although it strips the mid-point.


Steve Sax recommends: b/23 13/8

13/8 is better for attempting to counterprime Neil and doesn’t put a piece out of play with the tactical hit (6/1*).

While hitting does cause Neil to stay out on four numbers, we’re out-boarded, so introducing another blot into the mix isn’t ideal.

Additionally, since Neil’s attack isn’t too strong, we have a fair chance to make an anchor in his board or on his bar point before being closed out and gammoned for the match.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB--D-CB--cB--a--cbbbAA-:1:1:-1:54:6:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/8 6/2* eq: +0.586
Player:
Opponent:
68.18% (G:35.31% B:4.74%)
31.82% (G:10.63% B:1.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.583...+0.590) - [99.8%]
Duration: 7 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout19/4 6/2* eq: +0.579 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
67.70% (G:35.11% B:4.18%)
32.30% (G:9.52% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.576...+0.583) - [0.2%]
Duration: 6 hours 59 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 6/2*.

The attacking 6/2* is a must, and then I prefer to bring down another builder with 13/8 rather than the safer 9/4 which goes a bit deeper into my board than I’d prefer. Often in these situations it is worth the slight risk to bring a new checker close to the action in one’s homeboard. If I am not hit, 21 rolls will cover my 2 point now.



USBGF Members: 55 no play
Neil Kazaross: 61 9/2
USBGF Members: 65 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB--D-CB--bB---a-bbbbbAA:1:1:-1:31:6:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout113/10 8/7eq: +1.278
Player:
Opponent:
80.80% (G:53.01% B:4.02%)
19.20% (G:4.26% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.275...+1.281) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 42 minutes
2.xgRollout123/20 8/7eq: +1.271 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
80.77% (G:52.06% B:4.85%)
19.23% (G:3.98% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.268...+1.274) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 56 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 8/7eq: +1.265 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
80.89% (G:51.23% B:4.41%)
19.11% (G:3.79% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.262...+1.268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 47 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 8/7.

It seems clear to continue to press my offense with 13/10 8/7. If hit with a 61, I have many return shots since I can hit back with 6’s and 3’s which cannot be used to enter. If I get hit with a joker 11, well that’s just too bad.

My play best prepares to continue the blitz or prime so I slightly prefer the slight risk of 13/10 vs. moving up a back checker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB--D-CB--aB-a--abbbbbAA:1:1:1:41:6:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-BB--cC-b-bAebA----:0:0:-1:00:6:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62.63% (G:26.33% B:1.27%) 62.79% (G:27.54% B:2.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.37% (G:9.18% B:0.61%) 37.21% (G:10.00% B:1.03%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.513 +1.308
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.669 (-0.185)±0.012 (+0.657..+0.681)
played Double/Take:+0.854±0.018 (+0.836..+0.871)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.146)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] Take
[ 5] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

Just looking at this position I see that we have the same number of inner board points and the race is evenish. We are trailing (which should give us more of an incentive to double) and although Neil’s Gammon value is 0.8 ours is also 0.8.

We will lose a reasonable number of gammons but winning a gammon ourselves is good. Sometimes you need to make a stand, and for us it is now. I take.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

There’s significant volatility in the next sequence of rolls. I could roll a joker and lose my market by a mile or I could be return hit with several blots and quickly become an underdog. Most all of my rolls play decently and some are very threatening.

I should be able to win this position over 60% of the time, and considering how exposed their 2 back checkers are and noting 11 checkers in the attack zone, I suspect that I can win the match with a gammon at least 25% of the time from here.

This means that I should cube at this score.

I think this might even be a cube at the start of a long match, so certainly it is a cube here with my enhanced gammon value. Of course, things may backfire and I will face some recubes to 4, but with only a 1 point lead I need to send this attacking cube.

Were I ahead by a couple more points but still 4 points away, I’d have to hold off on doubling since my gammon value would be lower and their recubes are more potent especially when they carry some gammon threats of their own.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-BB--cC-b-bAebA----:1:1:-1:61:6:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout110/4* 8/7* eq: +0.255
Player:
Opponent:
60.95% (G:28.87% B:1.87%)
39.05% (G:12.74% B:1.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.246...+0.264) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.Rollout113/7* 6/5eq: +0.111 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:
58.71% (G:21.78% B:1.97%)
41.29% (G:11.11% B:1.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.103...+0.119) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
3.Rollout113/7* 8/7eq: +0.083 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent:
58.29% (G:21.43% B:2.20%)
41.71% (G:11.48% B:1.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.075...+0.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
4.Rollout113/7* 7/6eq: +0.080 (-0.175)
Player:
Opponent:
58.63% (G:20.13% B:1.67%)
41.37% (G:10.17% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.072...+0.087) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4* 8/7*.

My plan here is to blitz so I hit twice with 10/4* 8/7*. Of course leaving all these blots could blow up in my face, but I will win many match ending gammons if it works out.



USBGF Members: 41 b/24 b/21*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-B--D-BB--cC-a-aaebA--A-:1:1:-1:11:6:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 8/7 6/4* eq: -0.159
Player:
Opponent:
53.21% (G:18.69% B:1.91%)
46.79% (G:16.96% B:3.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.169...-0.149) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 8/7 5/4*(2) eq: -0.225 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
51.02% (G:19.15% B:1.60%)
48.98% (G:16.07% B:1.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.233...-0.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 8/7 6/4*.

8/7 cleans up two blots and makes a 3 prime. Then noting that I have 5 checkers stacked on my 6 point, I think 6/4* is better than switching points. Switching leaves only 1 shot, but results in an awkward position that seems difficult to improve.

After 6/48 I will be missed half the time and then I can usually either make my 4 prime or continue to attack.



USBGF Members: 65 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 149
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-B--D-BB--cC-a--bdba--AA:1:1:-1:11:6:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout124/23 10/9 6/4eq: +0.450
Player:
Opponent:
67.01% (G:27.55% B:4.33%)
32.99% (G:9.59% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.441...+0.458) - [99.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 6/5 6/4eq: +0.433 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
66.87% (G:26.45% B:3.33%)
33.13% (G:9.37% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.424...+0.442) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
3.Rollout110/8 6/4eq: +0.413 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
66.09% (G:27.13% B:4.04%)
33.91% (G:9.95% B:1.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.403...+0.422) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
4.Rollout110/9 6/5 6/4eq: +0.401 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
65.72% (G:27.21% B:3.94%)
34.28% (G:10.17% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.392...+0.409) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 10/9 6/4.

After 6/4 I need to play two more aces. The first should be 10/9 leaving just 2 shots to aim at the inside point I want next. Now I can continue 9/8 slotting the back of the 5 prime but leaving 2 more shots. Or I can split my back checkers hoping to make some progress moving them while my opponents are on the bar and outboarded. I face only slight potential loss from being counterattacked next roll as they are on the bar vs. a 3 point board. As they will often survive to anchor, I think splitting 24/23 has more merit than 9/8.



USBGF Members: 54 no play
Neil Kazaross: 22 7/3(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB--D-BB--cC--a--cbbb-AA:1:1:1:52:6:7:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-BA--cD-b-b-ebA--A-:0:0:1:64:6:7:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/18 13/9eq: -0.847
Player:
Opponent:
37.13% (G:9.25% B:0.82%)
62.87% (G:26.93% B:1.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.854...-0.840) - [99.5%]
Duration: 14 hours 44 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 13/7eq: -0.856 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
34.91% (G:9.62% B:0.68%)
65.09% (G:23.06% B:3.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.863...-0.849) - [0.5%]
Duration: 13 hours 29 minutes
3.Rollout224/14eq: -0.890 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
36.30% (G:8.23% B:0.78%)
63.70% (G:25.65% B:1.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.906...-0.874) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
4.Rollout28/2 6/2eq: -0.896 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
34.40% (G:9.85% B:0.98%)
65.60% (G:22.81% B:3.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.912...-0.880) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 24/18 13/9
[ 8] 24/14
[ 6] 8/2 6/2
[ 4] 13/9 13/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 13/9

This is a really tough position.

I think 8/2 6/2 just leaves too many shots and commits us to a blitzing type of game when we are behind in the race.

13/9 13/7 goes for the prime but strips the 13 point.

I liked 24/14 as it duplicated 2’s and this would have been my choice over the board.

However, it is inferior to 24/18 13/9, which

  • makes a new point, and
  • leaves only 2 blots

24/18 seems to diversify Neil’s good rolls (which it does) but if he hits with a 1 or 3 he has to give up a point and give us return shots especially if he breaks the 8 point. I disliked having a blot on the 18 and 21 points as it is easier for Neil to double hit. This lead me astray and I chose the wrong move. To quote Samuel Beckett “Every try, ever fail. Try again, fail again. Fail better.”

An interesting position that I have learned a lot from.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-BB--cC-b-bAebA----:0:0:-1:00:6:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-06-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-CA--eD---d-e-A--A-:0:0:1:53:6:7:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout124/21 13/8eq: -0.088
Player:
Opponent:
48.04% (G:10.47% B:0.33%)
51.96% (G:7.07% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.099...-0.077) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
2.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.114 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
47.65% (G:13.85% B:0.42%)
52.35% (G:12.02% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.127...-0.102) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 6/1* eq: -0.188 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
45.72% (G:10.93% B:0.26%)
54.28% (G:9.25% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.200...-0.176) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
4.Rollout124/21 9/4eq: -0.208 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:
45.43% (G:10.07% B:0.35%)
54.57% (G:8.70% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.219...-0.196) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
5.Rollout124/21 8/3eq: -0.244 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
44.74% (G:9.91% B:0.29%)
55.26% (G:9.46% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.256...-0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
6.Rollout121/13eq: -0.257 (-0.168)
Player:
Opponent:
45.27% (G:9.59% B:0.36%)
54.73% (G:11.62% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.268...-0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 8/3 6/3
[ 8] 24/21 13/8
[ 4] 21/13
[ 1] 24/21 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 13/8

Neil would love to win either a doubled or undoubled gammon. Making the 21 point gives us a lot of security and cuts down on his gammons.

This is the correct move also for money, as Neil would like to unstack his 6 and 8 points. Every time I have an opponent who has a stacked 8 and 6 points with no additional inner board points and no builders in the outfield, I think about trying for an advanced anchor. In that situation you will make it hard for them to unstack unless they play behind you, which affects their flexibility.

So 24/21 13/8 for me. After that play we will have 10 checkers in the zone and still a spare on the 13 point to hit with if Neil runs to his 15 or 14 point.


Steve Sax recommends: 24/21 13/8

At this score we should play conservatively and make the advanced anchor as well as playing a checker from the mid point to the eight point.

Since Neil needs 4 points and we need 5, it’s more imperative to play cautiously and not allow Neil extra chances to win a doubled gammon for the match.

I checked the play at other scores and what surprised me is that even at 4-away 2-away, it’s still right to make the anchor versus the inside point.

If the roll were a 41 instead, it would then be right to make the five point since it’s a much better inside point than the three point. The only exception would be if you were 2-away against 4-away at which time it would again be right to make the advanced anchor.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-BA--eD---d-e-A--A-:0:0:-1:33:6:7:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.456
Player:
Opponent:
59.09% (G:16.06% B:1.28%)
40.91% (G:10.44% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.451...+0.461) - [99.9%]
Duration: 10 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout18/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.445 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
58.75% (G:15.90% B:1.29%)
41.25% (G:10.04% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.440...+0.450) - [0.1%]
Duration: 9 hours 24 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10(2) 8/5(2).

I thought that the USBGF Members would have done better to anchor last turn so now this 33 can put them under considerable pressure. 8/5(2) is automatic. Then I must compare making the 3 point vs making the 10 point. While the 3 point is nice, the 10 point puts them under even more pressure to anchor and will be useful to block them on my 4 point should they anchor there. I remain flexible since I retain a spare on my midpoint and can also hope to run out with my lone back checker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-BA--cD-b-b-ebA--A-:0:0:1:64:6:7:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C---fE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:6:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout124/21 13/9eq: -0.253
Player:
Opponent:
44.87% (G:11.60% B:0.42%)
55.13% (G:12.77% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.258...-0.247) - [99.8%]
Duration: 13 hours 54 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 13/10eq: -0.270 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
44.76% (G:11.25% B:0.44%)
55.24% (G:13.35% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.275...-0.265) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 49 minutes
3.Rollout213/10 13/9eq: -0.275 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
44.43% (G:12.62% B:0.41%)
55.57% (G:13.92% B:1.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.288...-0.261) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 24/20 13/10
[ 8] 13/10 13/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 13/9

With an opening 43, I bring two checkers down. I have learned that the correct response after my opponent opens with 65 is split: 24/21 13/9.

24/21 makes it hard for Neil to bring checkers from his 13 point down to the 11, 10 or 9 points. 13/9 gives us a very good builder for our inner board.

At this score I would stick with the standard response and still play 24/21 13/9.


Steve Sax recommends: 24/21 13/9

When playing for money, or early in the match we should play 24/21 13/9. Now it is even more imperative to make that play as Neil is 4 away against our 5 away.

Since Neil is 4 away, our openings need to be especially sensitive towards not letting Neil get to doubled gammon opportunities, which would end the match.

We’re better off playing for an anchor game where on many of Neil’s doubled games, he only wins two points.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-CA--fD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:-1:41:6:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout113/8eq: +0.006
Player:
Opponent:
49.98% (G:10.35% B:0.56%)
50.02% (G:13.43% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.006...+0.017) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
2.Rollout124/23 8/4* eq: -0.069 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
48.03% (G:12.57% B:1.07%)
51.97% (G:15.40% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.082...-0.056) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8.

The correct response to an opening 43 24/21 13/9 is the ugly hit and split. But after I’ve opened with 65, things are different since I lead in the race and have only one checker back. I suspect that the cautious 13/8 is clear now.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-CA--eD---d-e-A--A-:0:0:1:53:6:7:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 73
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBD------------bbbccBab-:1:1:1:51:6:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout14/3eq: -0.678
Player:
Opponent:
15.54% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
84.46% (G:3.97% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.680...-0.675) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout12/1eq: -0.687 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
15.11% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
84.89% (G:3.88% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.690...-0.684) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 4/3
[ 6] 2/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 4/3

Winning the race by rolling big double still has to be a major way that we win from here. So we want to have the best possible bear off structure, therefore we should spread the checkers evenly with 4/3.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 73
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 75
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCCC------------bbbccBab-:1:1:-1:32:6:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/6 8/5eq: +0.649
Player:
Opponent:
83.14% (G:3.90% B:0.04%)
16.86% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.646...+0.652) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout15/2 4/2eq: +0.623 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
82.56% (G:3.17% B:0.03%)
17.44% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.620...+0.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout17/5 7/4eq: +0.593 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
80.95% (G:4.20% B:0.05%)
19.05% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.590...+0.597) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/6 8/5.

My opponents have been forced to waste plenty of pips, and if I clear I will have four builders if they run a checker away. If I dump two checkers on the two point, I’ll retain a 5 prime which is good but I may blot later and they won’t likely crash more. Noting that I need to bear in and off at some point to win I think it is best to head towards that goal now.



USBGF Members: 61 22/15
Neil Kazaross: 31 6/3*/2
USBGF Members: 43 b/22 15/11

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 64
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 64
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCCC------A------bbdcAbb-:1:1:-1:43:6:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout17/3* 5/2eq: +0.516
Player:
Opponent:
77.66% (G:5.49% B:0.06%)
22.34% (G:1.16% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.514...+0.519) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout17/4 7/3* eq: +0.508 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
77.06% (G:5.79% B:0.07%)
22.94% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.505...+0.511) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/3* 5/2.

I am quite sure that I need to hit, since while I am still a clear favorite if I play safe, it is possible to lose the race or to blot next roll. Therefore the choice is between 7/3* 6/3 which is best if they dance, and 7/4* 5/2 which is best if they hit, since I clearly have more chances to rehit.

So let’s look at next roll considerations and see if I can decide upon the best play. After switching to the 3 point, I am very safe if missed, but only 9 rolls will then cover cleanly. After playing 5/2, 25 of my rolls will cover blotlessly since 64 blots. This gives only a slight edge to 5/2 noting that the closeout isn’t worth all that much when I am now a huge favorite and my gammon chances are small.

After switching, I have no rolls to leave a repeat shot and am very unlikely to ever have to. But after 5/2 I have 6 rolls to leave a repeat shot if they dance. Let’s try to calculate how often this happens. 25/36 dances, 6/36 still blotted, 11/36 hit. This occurs 1650/46656 of the time or 3.53%. Of course I don’t have to lose all of these but may possibly still blot later especially if I’ve left the 3 point open. I’d expect to lose maybe an additional 2.2% as a result of being hit next roll after playing 7/3* 5/2 this turn, and a small fraction of a percent from being hit later.

So let’s look at the effect of being able to rehit when hit. I count 22 rehits after switching when I am hit and 76 rehits after playing 5/2 since there’s often more contact so I get more shots from the bar. This is 54/1292 or 4.17%. While rehitting is nice, it doesn’t guarantee a win, but I’d expect to win over 3% more games as a result of these extra rehitting sequences.

It does seem that 5/2 is my best 3 and that it may result in nearly 1% more wins.



USBGF Members: 51 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 57
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 67
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCCC------A------abccacbA:1:1:-1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout17/5 4/3eq: +1.026
Player:
Opponent:
97.77% (G:6.69% B:0.06%)
2.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.025...+1.027) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15.2 seconds
2.Rollout17/6 5/3eq: +1.006 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
96.76% (G:7.07% B:0.06%)
3.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.005...+1.007) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22.6 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/5 4/3.

With them having a checker closed out and a checker in their outfield, I have an almost certain win if I don’t get hit. I only gain a tiny amount of extra gammons if I risk some blotting numbers. Therefore, I play safe.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 54
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 67
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCCC------A-------bdbbcbA:1:1:-1:32:6:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout15/Offeq: +1.028
Player:
Opponent:
97.35% (G:7.75% B:0.07%)
2.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.027...+1.029) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18.3 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 5/2eq: +1.004 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
97.80% (G:4.67% B:0.03%)
2.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.003...+1.005) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.7 seconds
3.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: +0.962 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
95.87% (G:4.83% B:0.05%)
4.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.961...+0.964) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9.6 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/0.

Thirty years ago, I had a program that could roll these things out and play it quite well from here. Unfortunately, it never progressed beyond very simple contact like this, but I can recall much of what I learned and further study with Extreme Gammon has reinforced that. Thirty years ago, many players ago would think me nuts to play 5/0 here, and that 5/0 doesn’t mesh with my choice to not leave spares on the 6 and 4 points last turn risking 4 blot rolls and significant losing chances with a 65.

But here, things are different. If I clear the 6 point, I almost never get hit, but I doubt that is even the best DMP play since a 66 or a 6 soon followed by some big doubles will seriously threaten me. I think playing both checkers from my 5 point is the best DMP play, but that is close.

5/0 should win enough extra gammons to justify the slight risk of losing from getting hit with several checkers borne off. Note that I may roll something other than two large numbers next time and that spare on the 5 point may leave me with a safe position after clearing the 6 point.

It is important here to get at least one checker off prior to breaking the closed board.



Neil Kazaross: 62 6/4 6/0
USBGF Members: 11 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 41
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 67
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCCC------A--------ccbcbA:1:1:-1:44:6:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout15/1 4/Off(3)eq: +1.149
Player:
Opponent:
99.17% (G:14.50% B:0.11%)
0.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.148...+1.150) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4.2 seconds
2.Rollout15/1(3) 4/Offeq: +1.073 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
99.81% (G:6.72% B:0.02%)
0.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.073...+1.074) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.0 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/1 4/0(3).

If I rip 3 checkers off, I have reasonable chances to win a gammon and it is very unlikely that I can lose, since 10 of their rolls break contact. If I blot and get hit, I will have at least 6 checkers off vs a crashed 4 point board.



USBGF Members: 51 no play
Neil Kazaross: 63 5/2 5/0
USBGF Members: 65 b/19 11/6
Neil Kazaross: 63 3/0(2)
USBGF Members: 43 19/12
Neil Kazaross: 52 2/0(2)
USBGF Members: 33 12/6 3/0(2)


Neil Kazaross wins two points and leads 4-away/5-away.



Neil Kazaross: 65 24/13


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C---fE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:6:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBC--A---------bcbbcBc--:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout17/4eq: -0.545
Player:
Opponent:
20.74% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
79.26% (G:3.04% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.548...-0.541) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout17/5 4/3eq: -0.558 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
20.43% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
79.57% (G:3.69% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.562...-0.555) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
3.Rollout17/5 2/1eq: -0.565 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
20.20% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
79.80% (G:3.63% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.568...-0.562) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout14/1eq: -0.576 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
19.71% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
80.29% (G:3.64% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.580...-0.573) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds
5.Rollout17/6 4/2eq: -0.577 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
19.81% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
80.19% (G:3.95% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.581...-0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 7/4
[ 9] 4/1
[ 5] 7/5 4/3
[ 2] 7/5 2/1
[ 2] 7/6 4/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/4

We are only ahead in the race by 1 pip after the roll, which means that we are behind, as Neil will be on roll.

We will run with any 6 next time so we have to move the checker on our 7 point into our board. We want to bring it in in such a way that we keep our board as long as possible. That means we want to put it so that we have the least chance of having to move it next roll, Therefore, we should play 7/4.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBD------------bcbbcBc--:1:1:-1:11:6:5:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout17/5 2/1(2)eq: +0.637
Player:
Opponent:
82.45% (G:4.90% B:0.04%)
17.55% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.634...+0.640) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout17/4 2/1eq: +0.609 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
81.56% (G:4.20% B:0.04%)
18.44% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.605...+0.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout17/6(2) 7/5eq: +0.589 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
80.54% (G:4.56% B:0.06%)
19.46% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.586...+0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/5 2/1(2).

All plays I want to consider include playing 7/5, and now I must find 2 more aces. 2/1(2) is the first thing that comes to mind because it looks most flexible whether or not they run a checker with a 6. If they run I want to be able to attack and make a 5 point board. If they don’t run I want to be able to make a 5 point board.

Since I don’t have any checkers back to recapture escapees, I don’t think 7/5 7/6(2) is best, as I will regret their 44 or 64 and won’t care for any roll that doesn’t point on them. Keeping a 5 prime should be best so I’ll go with 7/5 2/1(2).


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 73
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBD------------bbbccBab-:1:1:1:15:6:5:0:11:10
to play 15

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC--AA-------bbbbbbBc--:1:1:1:42:6:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.Rollout18/6 7/3eq: -0.561
Player:
Opponent:
20.66% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
79.34% (G:4.75% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.565...-0.558) - [70.7%]
Duration: 5 minutes 24 seconds
2.playedRollout18/2eq: -0.563 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
20.72% (G:0.42% B:0.00%)
79.28% (G:4.92% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.566...-0.559) - [29.3%]
Duration: 4 minutes 55 seconds
3.Rollout17/1eq: -0.570 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
20.43% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
79.57% (G:4.87% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.574...-0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds
4.Rollout17/3 4/2eq: -0.571 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
20.49% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
79.51% (G:5.26% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.575...-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout18/4 7/5eq: -0.574 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
20.35% (G:0.46% B:0.02%)
79.65% (G:5.25% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.577...-0.571) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 8/2 (coin flip!)
[10] 8/4 7/5
[ 7] 7/1
[ 4] 8/6 7/3
[ 2] 7/3 4/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/6 7/3

We need to bring both checkers into our board, otherwise a 6 will force us to play too deep.

If we are bringing both checkers in, we want to diversify our spares so we have the best bear off if this turns into a race. If we play 8/4, then in the bearoff we could roll three 3’s before we clear the 4 point we would be forced to play 4/1. It is better therefore to play 7/3 guarding against this.

If we play 7/3, then the 2 has to be 8/6.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBC--A--------bbbbbbBc--:1:1:-1:52:6:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout19/7 9/4eq: +0.499
Player:
Opponent:
77.37% (G:3.62% B:0.05%)
22.63% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.496...+0.503) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout17/5 7/2eq: +0.481 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
76.22% (G:4.34% B:0.08%)
23.78% (G:0.55% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.478...+0.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/7 9/4.

I have to break my prime and want to keep my checkers in front of their anchor, so I can best pounce if they leave with a checker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBC--A---------bcbbcBc--:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 92
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC--AA------abbbbbbBb--:1:1:-1:22:6:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout110/2eq: +0.566
Player:
Opponent:
79.20% (G:5.31% B:0.09%)
20.80% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.564...+0.567) - [67.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout18/6 8/2eq: +0.565 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
78.47% (G:6.88% B:0.21%)
21.53% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.564...+0.567) - [33.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout110/4 8/6eq: +0.562 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
76.94% (G:9.64% B:0.48%)
23.06% (G:1.28% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.560...+0.563) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout210/6 8/6(2)eq: +0.549 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
78.04% (G:6.35% B:0.12%)
21.96% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.545...+0.553) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 00 second
5.Rollout28/4(2)eq: +0.539 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
77.30% (G:7.12% B:0.23%)
22.70% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.536...+0.543) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
6.Rollout210/8 9/7 9/5eq: +0.536 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
78.50% (G:4.28% B:0.05%)
21.50% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.532...+0.539) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 28 seconds
7.Rollout210/6 9/7(2)eq: +0.532 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
78.40% (G:4.16% B:0.06%)
21.60% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.528...+0.535) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 34 seconds
8.Rollout210/4 7/5eq: +0.519 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
75.38% (G:9.57% B:0.39%)
24.62% (G:1.31% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.515...+0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 51 seconds
9.Rollout210/6 7/5(2)eq: +0.518 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
76.72% (G:6.47% B:0.13%)
23.28% (G:0.59% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.514...+0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 26 seconds
10.Rollout28/6(2) 7/5(2)eq: +0.504 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
75.03% (G:8.69% B:0.34%)
24.97% (G:0.79% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.500...+0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
11.Rollout29/5(2)eq: +0.501 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
76.70% (G:5.22% B:0.13%)
23.30% (G:0.61% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.498...+0.505) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds
12.Rollout210/6 9/5eq: +0.500 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
74.76% (G:9.16% B:0.41%)
25.24% (G:1.36% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.496...+0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
13.Rollout210/4 9/7eq: +0.495 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
75.05% (G:8.03% B:0.32%)
24.95% (G:1.19% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.491...+0.498) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/8 13/7
[ 6] 13/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 13/7

If we play 13/2, then we have no chance of making our 6 or 5 point so we should go with 13/8 13/7.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 92
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC--AA------abbbbbbBb--:1:1:-1:22:6:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout110/2eq: +0.567
Player:
Opponent:
79.19% (G:5.40% B:0.10%)
20.81% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.564...+0.571) - [56.9%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout18/6 8/2eq: +0.567 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
78.39% (G:7.09% B:0.22%)
21.61% (G:0.70% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.563...+0.570) - [42.7%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout110/4 8/6eq: +0.562 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
76.94% (G:9.69% B:0.46%)
23.06% (G:1.31% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.558...+0.565) - [0.4%]
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds
4.Rollout110/6 8/6(2)eq: +0.549 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
78.04% (G:6.35% B:0.12%)
21.96% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.545...+0.553) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 00 second
5.Rollout18/4(2)eq: +0.539 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
77.30% (G:7.12% B:0.23%)
22.70% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.536...+0.543) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
6.Rollout110/8 9/7 9/5eq: +0.536 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
78.50% (G:4.28% B:0.05%)
21.50% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.532...+0.539) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 28 seconds
7.Rollout110/6 9/7(2)eq: +0.532 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
78.40% (G:4.16% B:0.06%)
21.60% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.528...+0.535) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 34 seconds
8.Rollout110/4 7/5eq: +0.519 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
75.38% (G:9.57% B:0.39%)
24.62% (G:1.31% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.515...+0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 51 seconds
9.Rollout110/6 7/5(2)eq: +0.518 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
76.72% (G:6.47% B:0.13%)
23.28% (G:0.59% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.514...+0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 26 seconds
10.Rollout18/6(2) 7/5(2)eq: +0.504 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
75.03% (G:8.69% B:0.34%)
24.97% (G:0.79% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.500...+0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
11.Rollout19/5(2)eq: +0.501 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
76.70% (G:5.22% B:0.13%)
23.30% (G:0.61% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.498...+0.505) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds
12.Rollout110/6 9/5eq: +0.500 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
74.76% (G:9.16% B:0.41%)
25.24% (G:1.36% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.496...+0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
13.Rollout110/4 9/7eq: +0.495 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
75.05% (G:8.03% B:0.32%)
24.95% (G:1.19% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.491...+0.498) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/2.

I think this is a close decision between a few plays, but I’ll keep the prime for another turn with 10/2 so that no roll can beat me this turn.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC--AA-------bbbbbbBc--:1:1:1:42:6:5:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 87
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC-a------C--bbbbbbAb--:1:1:1:31:6:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout113/10 4/3eq: -1.140
Player:
Opponent:
12.18% (G:2.23% B:0.01%)
87.82% (G:37.15% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.144...-1.137) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 24 seconds
2.playedRollout113/9eq: -1.165 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
11.64% (G:2.34% B:0.01%)
88.36% (G:38.33% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.168...-1.161) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout113/12 4/1eq: -1.179 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
12.03% (G:2.41% B:0.02%)
87.97% (G:40.21% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.183...-1.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 43 seconds
4.Rollout14/3 4/1eq: -1.253 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
8.92% (G:1.56% B:0.01%)
91.08% (G:39.77% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.257...-1.249) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35766177
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 13/9
[13] 4/3 4/1
[ 5] 13/10 4/3
[ 1] 13/12 4/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

We are going to be attacked. Our only defense is to keep our board as strong as possible, so we have to play 13/10.

If we continue 10/9, we have diversified 3’s for Neil which are one of his few non-hitting numbers on his side of the board, therefore we have to play 4/3.

There is a storm coming, we need to hope we survive. 13/10 4/3 is our best chance to do so.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 83
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC-a--A---B--bbbbbbAb--:1:1:-1:31:6:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout119/16* 16/15eq: +1.172
Player:
Opponent:
88.49% (G:37.35% B:1.42%)
11.51% (G:1.20% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.168...+1.175) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout119/16* 7/6eq: +1.072 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
85.05% (G:36.97% B:1.01%)
14.95% (G:2.21% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.068...+1.076) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 26 seconds
3.Rollout119/16* 8/7eq: +1.069 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
85.06% (G:36.60% B:1.11%)
14.94% (G:2.45% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.064...+1.073) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 03 seconds
4.Rollout119/16* 9/8eq: +1.008 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:
83.74% (G:34.39% B:1.04%)
16.26% (G:2.50% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.004...+1.012) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 16 seconds
5.Rollout119/16* 2/1eq: +0.961 (-0.210)
Player:
Opponent:
85.02% (G:26.82% B:1.02%)
14.98% (G:1.46% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.957...+0.965) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 33 seconds
6.Rollout119/16* 4/3* eq: +0.957 (-0.214)
Player:
Opponent:
81.18% (G:37.02% B:1.08%)
18.82% (G:6.10% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.952...+0.962) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 26 seconds
7.Rollout119/15eq: +0.844 (-0.327)
Player:
Opponent:
88.44% (G:10.52% B:0.26%)
11.56% (G:1.65% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.841...+0.848) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58065622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 19/16*/15.

I am delighted to hit 19/16*/15 keeping my prime for now.



USBGF Members: 21 b/22


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 97
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC-----a--B--bbbbbbBb--:1:1:-1:32:6:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout18/6 8/5eq: +0.635
Player:
Opponent:
79.56% (G:10.97% B:0.28%)
20.44% (G:0.87% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.631...+0.639) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout17/5 7/4eq: +0.596 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
77.88% (G:10.61% B:0.30%)
22.12% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.593...+0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 36 seconds
3.playedRollout115/10eq: +0.590 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
79.98% (G:5.81% B:0.15%)
20.02% (G:0.56% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.586...+0.593) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 24 seconds
4.Rollout19/7 9/6eq: +0.578 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
77.23% (G:10.74% B:0.42%)
22.77% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.574...+0.582) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58065622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/10.

A difficult choice here. If my opponents had only a 3 point board, I’d quickly play 8/6 8/5 trying for to get a third checker back or possibly setting up a squeeze where they have to break anchor after hitting me. But their 4 point board has me doubting this plan. I went through all their rolls and looking ahead and I am just not sure.

I’ll wimp with 15/10.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 92
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC--------B-abbbbbbBb--:1:1:1:65:6:5:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCCa-------C-ababbbb-b-A:1:1:1:32:6:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 3/1eq: -0.987
Player:
Opponent:
13.04% (G:2.77% B:0.06%)
86.96% (G:26.71% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.991...-0.983) - [99.8%]
Duration: 10 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 4/2eq: -0.996 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
12.98% (G:2.89% B:0.05%)
87.02% (G:27.43% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.000...-0.992) - [0.2%]
Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/22 13/11eq: -1.095 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
13.25% (G:3.39% B:0.05%)
86.75% (G:36.30% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.099...-1.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35766177
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] b/22 3/1
[ 8] b/22 4/2
[ 1] b/22 13/11


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 3/1

We should simply play 3/1, keeping our spare on the highest inner board point.



Neil Kazaross: 21 20/19 10/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 87
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC-a------C--bbbbbbAb--:1:1:1:31:6:5:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCCCa------bCaa--bbbbb--A:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 2/1eq: -0.822
Player:
Opponent:
19.42% (G:4.89% B:0.04%)
80.58% (G:26.28% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.826...-0.817) - [99.7%]
Duration: 17 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 3/2eq: -0.830 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
19.18% (G:4.84% B:0.04%)
80.82% (G:26.64% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.835...-0.826) - [0.3%]
Duration: 16 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/23 4/3eq: -0.844 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
18.93% (G:4.76% B:0.04%)
81.07% (G:27.02% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.848...-0.839) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24117444
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] b/23 2/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 2/1

We have to enter bar/23 then decide how to play the 1. Over the board I would just go with general principles and try to stay flexible and so would want to keep my highest numbers in my home board playable without leaving a blot – so I would play 2/1. This keeps a spare 3 or 2 in reserve.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCCa------bCaa--bbbbbA--:1:1:-1:11:6:5:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout111/9 3/2*(2) eq: +0.814
Player:
Opponent:
79.83% (G:27.42% B:0.67%)
20.17% (G:5.06% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.809...+0.819) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout120/19 10/9 3/2*(2) eq: +0.794 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
79.61% (G:26.29% B:0.66%)
20.39% (G:4.87% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.790...+0.799) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout110/8 3/2*(2) eq: +0.782 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
78.80% (G:26.86% B:0.66%)
21.20% (G:4.74% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.778...+0.787) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 38 seconds
4.Rollout120/19 11/10 3/2*(2) eq: +0.742 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
77.80% (G:25.09% B:0.64%)
22.20% (G:3.99% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.738...+0.747) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35766177
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/9 3/2*(2).

I don’t want them escaping with 6’s and would like to trap them back on the ace point. So I shift 3/2*(2) and then I’ll risk just a 63 shot to bring a builder to my 9 point. If they hit, I have 8 return shots and will be OK unless I dance.

By shifting, I leave them an awful 41, 51, 61, and 43. Of course they have plenty of rolls if I don’t hit, but I fear the escaping 6 and especially the super joker 66.



USBGF Members: 22 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCCa------bC-aa-bbbb-b-A:1:1:-1:54:6:5:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.991
Player:
Opponent:
85.63% (G:29.46% B:0.65%)
14.37% (G:2.52% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.987...+0.995) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 10/5eq: +0.967 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
84.47% (G:30.05% B:0.64%)
15.53% (G:2.80% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.963...+0.971) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35766177
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 13/8.

13/9 13/8 is clear bringing more firepower for the closeout and paying off to only a 53 shot while staying back on the 20 pt in hopes of capturing another checker should they enter poorly.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCCa-------C-ababbbb-b-A:1:1:1:32:6:5:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCCCb------bBb--Bbabbb---:0:0:-1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 61.74% (G:19.99% B:0.77%) 62.47% (G:20.29% B:0.81%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 38.26% (G:7.28% B:0.06%) 37.53% (G:7.35% B:0.07%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.388 +0.886
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+0.605 (-0.065)±0.010 (+0.595..+0.615)
played Double/Take:+0.670±0.016 (+0.654..+0.686)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.330)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85688127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Take
[ 6] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

If we had made the correct move last roll, we would not be in this position – but that is the past. We cannot change our decision, we must focus the position in front of us.

If we use the old Sylvester Race, Position and Threat criteria looking at it from Neil’s point of view, we notice that we are 43 pips up in the race. That alone says take. We at least temporarily have the stronger board but Neil has better future potential. As for threats, Neil’s threats are to improve his board then win with a hit. I would not double for money unless I suspected my opponent would pass. With Neil being behind in the match it must be close, but I am not convinced of the double so we have to take.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

The USBGF Members made a big error by breaking their 6 point and now face a difficult road coming home. It seems to me that my market will clearly be lost if I can remake my 6 point and they then pop loose a couple of blots.

Therefore, and noting that I trail slightly in the match, I double now.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCCCb------bBb--Bbabbb---:1:1:-1:51:6:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout111/10 11/6eq: +0.397
Player:
Opponent:
65.63% (G:21.31% B:0.90%)
34.37% (G:7.06% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.392...+0.403) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout17/6 7/2eq: +0.382 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
65.00% (G:22.97% B:0.95%)
35.00% (G:8.87% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.376...+0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 51 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85688127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/10 11/6.

My plan was after giving this cube that would surely be taken was to make my 6 point if possible and await my shots. I have two plays to compare: 7/6 7/2 and 11/10 11/6.

If I play 7/6 7/2, I will have a major issue with a blot on my 2 point that is hard to cover for a couple of turns and sometimes I may leave 3 blots after hitting them next turn.

If I play 11/10 11/6, I make a 5 prime and have no inside blot to worry about. That would seem to be the best play except for one big problem. That problem is leaving 12 shots! However, I’ll be in good shape if missed and most of their rolls that miss will force blot(s). If I get hit and enter I should be OK and I get return shots from the bar. The hit checker may also enter on the 6 point and provide me more coverage. When missed, I also have a spare checker to play if I cannot hit them. Still, I expect the decision is close.

The horror of dancing after being hit after 11/10 11/6 happens less than 15% of the time, and if it happens I have no other blot to worry about.

I’ll risk 11/10 11/6.



USBGF Members: 43 17/14 17/13
Neil Kazaross: 63 20/11*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCCCa------bCaa--bbbbb--A:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBCbB-----bBb--Bbabbb---:0:0:1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout113/8 4/1eq: -0.306
Player:
Opponent:
43.32% (G:12.70% B:0.18%)
56.68% (G:17.16% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.316...-0.296) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.368 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
42.56% (G:12.11% B:0.21%)
57.44% (G:18.98% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.378...-0.358) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 56 seconds
3.playedRollout16/3 6/1eq: -0.677 (-0.370)
Player:
Opponent:
37.60% (G:7.27% B:0.07%)
62.40% (G:20.52% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.689...-0.664) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 48 seconds
4.Rollout16/1 4/1eq: -0.831 (-0.525)
Player:
Opponent:
35.83% (G:8.06% B:0.09%)
64.17% (G:23.82% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.844...-0.818) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 6/3 6/1
[16] 13/8 4/1
[ 2] 6/1 4/1
[ 1] 13/10 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 4/1

We should reject any play that weakens our board like playing 6/3 6/1. This would give us one roll at best before we have to leave a blot or blots. We would rather strengthen our board so that points to 4/1. If we get into a blot hitting contest, we want the best board possible.

After 4/1, the only other 5 is 13/8, leaving 2 blots. Neil can hit with 3’s and 1’s. The 1’s are duplicated to cover his 6 point blot. This looks to be about as good a move as we can get so I recommend we play 13/8 4/1.


Steve Sax recommends: 13/8 4/1

We have to leave a shot or break our six point. This is not an ideal time to break our board, when our timing is as bad as it is.

Better to leave the shots now while Neil is attempting to develop and equalize board strength.

Neil has 3’s and 1’s to hit with 1’s and 5’s to cover.

We are far ahead in the race and after we make a five point board, Neil needs to tread with caution.

And while it’s true that clearing the checkers off of the 17 point is going to be a major chore, it has been made a little easier having made a fifth point in our board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCCCb------bBb--Bbabbb---:0:0:-1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles.


USBGF OLM 2018-06-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABBBbCa----bCb---bbbAb--A:0:0:1:44:6:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/17 21/17 6/2eq: +0.007
Player:
Opponent:
52.15% (G:14.55% B:0.27%)
47.85% (G:12.56% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.004...+0.017) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/17 21/17 13/9eq: -0.058 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
50.72% (G:16.66% B:0.36%)
49.28% (G:14.71% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.069...-0.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/13 6/2eq: -0.087 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
49.37% (G:20.78% B:0.40%)
50.63% (G:14.50% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.098...-0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/21 13/9(3)eq: -0.179 (-0.186)
Player:
Opponent:
47.37% (G:12.36% B:0.18%)
52.63% (G:10.85% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.188...-0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/13 21/17eq: -0.206 (-0.213)
Player:
Opponent:
46.45% (G:15.51% B:0.44%)
53.55% (G:13.93% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.216...-0.196) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] b/17 21/17 6/2
[ 5] b/17 21/17 13/9
[ 3] b/21 13/9(3)
[ 2] b/13 21/17
[ 1] b/13 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/17 21/17 6/2

We are ahead in the race by 42 pips after the roll. That is a lot. We want to get the back checkers moving so we should play b/17 21/17 with the first three 4’s.

At this point we should use Magriel’s Safe vs Bold Guide and say although we have the better board, Neil has more checkers back, an advanced anchor and is behind in the race so we should want to play safe. Also our one point lead in the says play safe. I tend to be a bit too aggressive sometimes, but here everything is saying play safe so we should play 6/2 rather than leave Neil shots.

So I recommend b/17 21/17 6/2 and await developments and see if Neil can tidy up his 18 point blot.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBBbBa----bCb--Bbbb-b---:0:0:-1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout118/13 7/4eq: +0.106
Player:
Opponent:
50.28% (G:12.93% B:0.48%)
49.72% (G:11.46% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.097...+0.115) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout118/10eq: -0.025 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:
47.61% (G:12.40% B:0.55%)
52.39% (G:15.19% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.035...-0.015) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
3.Rollout118/13 5/2eq: -0.160 (-0.266)
Player:
Opponent:
43.43% (G:10.45% B:0.36%)
56.57% (G:14.21% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.169...-0.151) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
4.Rollout120/15 18/15eq: -0.197 (-0.303)
Player:
Opponent:
43.59% (G:11.45% B:0.55%)
56.41% (G:20.64% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.208...-0.186) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/13 7/4.

This seems to be a straight forward play. 18/13 safeties a checker that will soon be a builder and 7/4 slots the 4 point that I must have to win after hitting a shot. I must avoid blunders like making the 15 point which doesn’t even achieve direct contact with the opposing checkers on my 8 point. When miles behind in the race, one should find ways to stay back safely for more contact!



USBGF Members: 63 13/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBCbB-----cBb--Babbab---:0:0:-1:62:6:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 6/4eq: +0.167
Player:
Opponent:
52.68% (G:13.73% B:0.55%)
47.32% (G:11.64% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.157...+0.176) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout113/5eq: +0.083 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
50.20% (G:12.75% B:0.51%)
49.80% (G:12.53% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.075...+0.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 6/4.

13/7 is basically forced for my 6. Then I spent a while comparing 6/4 with 7/5. 6/4 leaves me with 4 out of 5 adjacent points made whereas 7/5 leaves me with 3 of the 5 points made. 6/4 leaves my opponents 15 return shots from the bar at just one blot on my side should I hit somewhere but fail to cover whereas 7/5 leaves 18 return shots and 2 blots. The edge would seem to be to 6/4 but breaking one’s 6 point should be very carefully considered.

I then looked carefully at most of their blotting rolls and 6/4 seemed to have an edge over 7/5. If I can hit and remake my 6 point I will usually have a winning position, especially if I hit and can make a 5 prime.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBCbB-----bBb--Bbabbb---:0:0:1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBCBbC-A---bCb---bbbAb---:0:0:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout18/6 3/2eq: +0.285
Player:
Opponent:
56.88% (G:24.09% B:0.71%)
43.12% (G:9.25% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.273...+0.297) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.playedRollout18/7 3/1* eq: +0.197 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
54.64% (G:21.92% B:0.37%)
45.36% (G:12.22% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.186...+0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 8/7 3/1*
[15] 8/6 3/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/6 3/2

Neil is stripped with no spares on top of any point. Some of his rolls could be very awkward, and he will usually have to break a point. He would rather break a point by hitting than break a point just leaving blots. This says play safe, and let Neil leave us the shots.

Magriel’s Safe vs Bold guide says play safe as well — although we have the better board, Neil has an anchor and more checkers back.

Having a 1 point lead makes us want to play safe.

Putting it altogether, I would play 8/6 3/2.



Neil Kazaross: 52 b/18*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABBBbCa----bCb---bbbAb--A:0:0:1:44:6:5:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBCbC-A---cCa---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:31:6:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout124/21 8/7eq: +0.549
Player:
Opponent:
61.54% (G:26.45% B:0.62%)
38.46% (G:7.69% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.540...+0.558) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 18 seconds
2.playedRollout124/21 4/3eq: +0.498 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
60.83% (G:23.04% B:0.49%)
39.17% (G:8.18% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.486...+0.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/21 4/3
[18] 24/21 8/7
[ 2] 8/4
[ 1] 13/10 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 8/7

Before the dice settles on the board, we know we would move up with a 1 or 3. With a 3 we are moving to the 21 point as we will be 50 pips ahead in the race so we just want to get out of Dodge, and that is easier to do from the 21 point. We also have 6 hitting numbers from the 21 point compared to 2 from the 23 point.

The 1 is interesting, we could play 4/3 duplicating 3’s for Neil to hit on both sides of the board if he enters, or 8/7 slotting the 7 point and having another builder for our 1 point. This was really tricky, and I did have the luxury of spending more time thinking about this than I would over the board. If we play 4/3 and Neil fans, I believe we have a double but it is a take, whereas if we play 8/7, we have a double but I think our position is too powerful and Neil would have to pass. Also 8/7 does give us a good 63 next turn which is very awkward after 4/3.

So putting it together, we should play 24/21 8/7.



Neil Kazaross: 21 b/24 13/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBCBbC-A---bCb---bbbAb---:0:0:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 6/8 930p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-06-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBCbC-A---cCa---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 56.42% (G:24.11% B:0.44%) 56.79% (G:24.15% B:0.46%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 43.58% (G:7.73% B:0.34%) 43.21% (G:7.76% B:0.41%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.278 +0.619
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.306±0.010 (+0.296..+0.316)
     Double/Take:+0.111 (-0.195)±0.015 (+0.096..+0.127)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.694)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27404414
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] No Double
[ 9] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

I looked at this with the Value Equation = Prime + Blitz + Racing + Contact. This is a relative measure comparing both sides and got

VE = -3 + 1 + 5 -2 = 1, Therefore No Double for Money. Here we should be a bit more cautious as we have a 1 point lead. Players tend to undervalue a 1 point lead but it can and will change the proper action.

Then I looked at this in terms of Race, Position and Threat. We have race, maybe have a slightly better position but hardly any threats so again No double for money.

If we moved the back checker 24/23 so we could see daylight then we would almost have a double, if we moved it 24/21 so we not could hit with 61, 52 and 43 – then it would be Double / Pass.

But with the current position, I would not double.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBCbC-A---cCa---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:31:6:5:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-BaD-BB--dCA---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:62:6:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout114/8 6/4eq: -0.039
Player:
Opponent:
51.05% (G:12.21% B:0.58%)
48.95% (G:12.34% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.050...-0.028) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
2.Rollout114/6eq: -0.093 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
49.74% (G:12.57% B:0.61%)
50.26% (G:13.28% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.104...-0.082) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
3.Rollout113/5* eq: -0.216 (-0.177)
Player:
Opponent:
46.95% (G:15.94% B:1.29%)
53.05% (G:17.68% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.229...-0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33840375
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 14/8 6/4
[ 4] 13/5*
[ 1] 14/8 4/2*
[ 1] 14/6
[ 1] 8/2* 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 14/8 6/4

With every student who I have, I go over Magriel’s Safe vs Bold Guide. I say ‘Guide’ as it is not always correct, but it is the majority of the time. I remember a saying I read – ‘The strongest person may not always win the fight, nor the fastest person win the race, but if I have to bet money on it, then that’s how I would bet.’

Here Neil has the better board and 3 checkers back to our 1 checker back. This screams ‘Play Safe’ to me. Also having just a 1 point lead in the match gives me the same message. Therefore, I would play 14/8 6/4.



Neil Kazaross: 42 24/20 13/11
USBGF Members: 66 9/3(2) 8/2*(2)
Neil Kazaross: 62 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBCbC-A---cCa---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 84
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-CBCAA---b--cb--bbb-A--:1:-1:1:66:2:5:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout123/5 8/2eq: +1.795
Player:
Opponent:
93.03% (G:83.38% B:0.46%)
6.97% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.792...+1.798) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout123/5 7/1eq: +1.775 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
92.65% (G:82.65% B:0.45%)
7.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.771...+1.779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33840375
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 23/5 8/2
[ 4] 23/5 7/1
[ 2] 23/11 8/2 7/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/5 8/2

We just rolled a great number. The first three 6’s should be played 23/5. There may not look like much difference between 8/2 and 7/1, but 7/1 makes us leave a blot on our 3 point if we roll 55, so we should instead play 8/2 which leaves no blots next roll.



Neil Kazaross: 11 no play
USBGF Members: 65 7/2 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 31 b/22
USBGF Members: 33 6/3*(2) 5/2 4/1
Neil Kazaross: 62 b/19
USBGF Members: 52 5/3 5/0
Neil Kazaross: 54 b/20 10/6
USBGF Members: 41 4/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 42 20/18 10/6
USBGF Members: 62 4/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 43 10/6 9/6
USBGF Members: 63 3/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 43 13/6
USBGF Members: 22 2/0(4)
Neil Kazaross: 53 19/14 9/6


USBGF Members win four points, and now lead 5-away/6-away



USBGF Members: 42 8/4 6/4

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:11:6:5:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout18/7(2) 6/5(2)eq: +0.149
Player:
Opponent:
52.09% (G:15.85% B:0.80%)
47.91% (G:15.79% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.136...+0.162) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 6/5(2)eq: +0.122 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
51.47% (G:14.47% B:0.72%)
48.53% (G:14.57% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.111...+0.133) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33840375
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/7(2) 6/5(2).

The proper play of 11 after 42 8/4 6/4 is to make two good points, risking a 7 shot, but with hopes for a 4 prime soon.



USBGF Members: 42 24/22 13/9
Neil Kazaross: 43 7/3* 6/3
USBGF Members: 42 b/23 13/9


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-BB--eC---aabb-bAA-:0:0:-1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout113/11 8/7eq: +0.078
Player:
Opponent:
50.31% (G:16.34% B:0.89%)
49.69% (G:16.97% B:1.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.067...+0.089) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 8/7eq: +0.000 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
49.18% (G:15.02% B:0.80%)
50.82% (G:18.48% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.011...+0.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33840375
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 8/7.

8/7 is a must, making my bar point, so I have to decide between 24/22 and 13/11. 24/22 seems to expose me to blitz possibilities and if I make the 22 point, my back checkers are still blocked due to the opposing 9 point. Surely, 13/11 unstacking and leaving only 2 shots is better.



USBGF Members: 63 23/14*
Neil Kazaross: 51 b/20 24/23


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-BaD-BB--dCA---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:62:6:5:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10