USBGF OLM 2018-06-16

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC--AA-------bbbbbbBc--:1:1:1:42:6:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.Rollout18/6 7/3eq: -0.561
Player:
Opponent:
20.66% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
79.34% (G:4.75% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.565...-0.558) - [70.7%]
Duration: 5 minutes 24 seconds
2.playedRollout18/2eq: -0.563 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
20.72% (G:0.42% B:0.00%)
79.28% (G:4.92% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.566...-0.559) - [29.3%]
Duration: 4 minutes 55 seconds
3.Rollout17/1eq: -0.570 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
20.43% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
79.57% (G:4.87% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.574...-0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds
4.Rollout17/3 4/2eq: -0.571 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
20.49% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
79.51% (G:5.26% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.575...-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout18/4 7/5eq: -0.574 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
20.35% (G:0.46% B:0.02%)
79.65% (G:5.25% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.577...-0.571) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 8/2 (coin flip!)
[10] 8/4 7/5
[ 7] 7/1
[ 4] 8/6 7/3
[ 2] 7/3 4/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/6 7/3

We need to bring both checkers into our board, otherwise a 6 will force us to play too deep.

If we are bringing both checkers in, we want to diversify our spares so we have the best bear off if this turns into a race. If we play 8/4, then in the bearoff we could roll three 3’s before we clear the 4 point we would be forced to play 4/1. It is better therefore to play 7/3 guarding against this.

If we play 7/3, then the 2 has to be 8/6.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBC--A--------bbbbbbBc--:1:1:-1:52:6:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout19/7 9/4eq: +0.499
Player:
Opponent:
77.37% (G:3.62% B:0.05%)
22.63% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.496...+0.503) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout17/5 7/2eq: +0.481 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
76.22% (G:4.34% B:0.08%)
23.78% (G:0.55% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.478...+0.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/7 9/4.

I have to break my prime and want to keep my checkers in front of their anchor, so I can best pounce if they leave with a checker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBC--A---------bcbbcBc--:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 6/22 915p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-06-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 92
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC--AA------abbbbbbBb--:1:1:-1:22:6:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout110/2eq: +0.566
Player:
Opponent:
79.20% (G:5.31% B:0.09%)
20.80% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.564...+0.567) - [67.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout18/6 8/2eq: +0.565 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
78.47% (G:6.88% B:0.21%)
21.53% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.564...+0.567) - [33.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout110/4 8/6eq: +0.562 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
76.94% (G:9.64% B:0.48%)
23.06% (G:1.28% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.560...+0.563) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout210/6 8/6(2)eq: +0.549 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
78.04% (G:6.35% B:0.12%)
21.96% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.545...+0.553) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 00 second
5.Rollout28/4(2)eq: +0.539 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
77.30% (G:7.12% B:0.23%)
22.70% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.536...+0.543) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
6.Rollout210/8 9/7 9/5eq: +0.536 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
78.50% (G:4.28% B:0.05%)
21.50% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.532...+0.539) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 28 seconds
7.Rollout210/6 9/7(2)eq: +0.532 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
78.40% (G:4.16% B:0.06%)
21.60% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.528...+0.535) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 34 seconds
8.Rollout210/4 7/5eq: +0.519 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
75.38% (G:9.57% B:0.39%)
24.62% (G:1.31% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.515...+0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 51 seconds
9.Rollout210/6 7/5(2)eq: +0.518 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
76.72% (G:6.47% B:0.13%)
23.28% (G:0.59% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.514...+0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 26 seconds
10.Rollout28/6(2) 7/5(2)eq: +0.504 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
75.03% (G:8.69% B:0.34%)
24.97% (G:0.79% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.500...+0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
11.Rollout29/5(2)eq: +0.501 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
76.70% (G:5.22% B:0.13%)
23.30% (G:0.61% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.498...+0.505) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds
12.Rollout210/6 9/5eq: +0.500 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
74.76% (G:9.16% B:0.41%)
25.24% (G:1.36% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.496...+0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
13.Rollout210/4 9/7eq: +0.495 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
75.05% (G:8.03% B:0.32%)
24.95% (G:1.19% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.491...+0.498) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/8 13/7
[ 6] 13/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 13/7

If we play 13/2, then we have no chance of making our 6 or 5 point so we should go with 13/8 13/7.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 92
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC--AA------abbbbbbBb--:1:1:-1:22:6:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout110/2eq: +0.567
Player:
Opponent:
79.19% (G:5.40% B:0.10%)
20.81% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.564...+0.571) - [56.9%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout18/6 8/2eq: +0.567 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
78.39% (G:7.09% B:0.22%)
21.61% (G:0.70% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.563...+0.570) - [42.7%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout110/4 8/6eq: +0.562 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
76.94% (G:9.69% B:0.46%)
23.06% (G:1.31% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.558...+0.565) - [0.4%]
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds
4.Rollout110/6 8/6(2)eq: +0.549 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
78.04% (G:6.35% B:0.12%)
21.96% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.545...+0.553) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 00 second
5.Rollout18/4(2)eq: +0.539 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
77.30% (G:7.12% B:0.23%)
22.70% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.536...+0.543) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
6.Rollout110/8 9/7 9/5eq: +0.536 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
78.50% (G:4.28% B:0.05%)
21.50% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.532...+0.539) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 28 seconds
7.Rollout110/6 9/7(2)eq: +0.532 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
78.40% (G:4.16% B:0.06%)
21.60% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.528...+0.535) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 34 seconds
8.Rollout110/4 7/5eq: +0.519 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
75.38% (G:9.57% B:0.39%)
24.62% (G:1.31% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.515...+0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 51 seconds
9.Rollout110/6 7/5(2)eq: +0.518 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
76.72% (G:6.47% B:0.13%)
23.28% (G:0.59% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.514...+0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 26 seconds
10.Rollout18/6(2) 7/5(2)eq: +0.504 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
75.03% (G:8.69% B:0.34%)
24.97% (G:0.79% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.500...+0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
11.Rollout19/5(2)eq: +0.501 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
76.70% (G:5.22% B:0.13%)
23.30% (G:0.61% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.498...+0.505) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds
12.Rollout110/6 9/5eq: +0.500 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
74.76% (G:9.16% B:0.41%)
25.24% (G:1.36% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.496...+0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
13.Rollout110/4 9/7eq: +0.495 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
75.05% (G:8.03% B:0.32%)
24.95% (G:1.19% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.491...+0.498) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37692875
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/2.

I think this is a close decision between a few plays, but I’ll keep the prime for another turn with 10/2 so that no roll can beat me this turn.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC--AA-------bbbbbbBc--:1:1:1:42:6:5:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 87
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC-a------C--bbbbbbAb--:1:1:1:31:6:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout113/10 4/3eq: -1.140
Player:
Opponent:
12.18% (G:2.23% B:0.01%)
87.82% (G:37.15% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.144...-1.137) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 24 seconds
2.playedRollout113/9eq: -1.165 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
11.64% (G:2.34% B:0.01%)
88.36% (G:38.33% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.168...-1.161) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout113/12 4/1eq: -1.179 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
12.03% (G:2.41% B:0.02%)
87.97% (G:40.21% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.183...-1.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 43 seconds
4.Rollout14/3 4/1eq: -1.253 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
8.92% (G:1.56% B:0.01%)
91.08% (G:39.77% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.257...-1.249) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35766177
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 13/9
[13] 4/3 4/1
[ 5] 13/10 4/3
[ 1] 13/12 4/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

We are going to be attacked. Our only defense is to keep our board as strong as possible, so we have to play 13/10.

If we continue 10/9, we have diversified 3’s for Neil which are one of his few non-hitting numbers on his side of the board, therefore we have to play 4/3.

There is a storm coming, we need to hope we survive. 13/10 4/3 is our best chance to do so.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 83
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC-a--A---B--bbbbbbAb--:1:1:-1:31:6:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout119/16* 16/15eq: +1.172
Player:
Opponent:
88.49% (G:37.35% B:1.42%)
11.51% (G:1.20% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.168...+1.175) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout119/16* 7/6eq: +1.072 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
85.05% (G:36.97% B:1.01%)
14.95% (G:2.21% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.068...+1.076) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 26 seconds
3.Rollout119/16* 8/7eq: +1.069 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
85.06% (G:36.60% B:1.11%)
14.94% (G:2.45% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.064...+1.073) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 03 seconds
4.Rollout119/16* 9/8eq: +1.008 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:
83.74% (G:34.39% B:1.04%)
16.26% (G:2.50% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.004...+1.012) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 16 seconds
5.Rollout119/16* 2/1eq: +0.961 (-0.210)
Player:
Opponent:
85.02% (G:26.82% B:1.02%)
14.98% (G:1.46% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.957...+0.965) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 33 seconds
6.Rollout119/16* 4/3* eq: +0.957 (-0.214)
Player:
Opponent:
81.18% (G:37.02% B:1.08%)
18.82% (G:6.10% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.952...+0.962) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 26 seconds
7.Rollout119/15eq: +0.844 (-0.327)
Player:
Opponent:
88.44% (G:10.52% B:0.26%)
11.56% (G:1.65% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.841...+0.848) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58065622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 19/16*/15.

I am delighted to hit 19/16*/15 keeping my prime for now.



USBGF Members: 21 b/22


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 97
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC-----a--B--bbbbbbBb--:1:1:-1:32:6:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout18/6 8/5eq: +0.635
Player:
Opponent:
79.56% (G:10.97% B:0.28%)
20.44% (G:0.87% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.631...+0.639) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout17/5 7/4eq: +0.596 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
77.88% (G:10.61% B:0.30%)
22.12% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.593...+0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 36 seconds
3.playedRollout115/10eq: +0.590 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
79.98% (G:5.81% B:0.15%)
20.02% (G:0.56% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.586...+0.593) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 24 seconds
4.Rollout19/7 9/6eq: +0.578 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
77.23% (G:10.74% B:0.42%)
22.77% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.574...+0.582) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58065622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/10.

A difficult choice here. If my opponents had only a 3 point board, I’d quickly play 8/6 8/5 trying for to get a third checker back or possibly setting up a squeeze where they have to break anchor after hitting me. But their 4 point board has me doubting this plan. I went through all their rolls and looking ahead and I am just not sure.

I’ll wimp with 15/10.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 92
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC--------B-abbbbbbBb--:1:1:1:65:6:5:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 6/21 730a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-06-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCCa-------C-ababbbb-b-A:1:1:1:32:6:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 3/1eq: -0.987
Player:
Opponent:
13.04% (G:2.77% B:0.06%)
86.96% (G:26.71% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.991...-0.983) - [99.8%]
Duration: 10 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 4/2eq: -0.996 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
12.98% (G:2.89% B:0.05%)
87.02% (G:27.43% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.000...-0.992) - [0.2%]
Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/22 13/11eq: -1.095 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
13.25% (G:3.39% B:0.05%)
86.75% (G:36.30% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.099...-1.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35766177
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] b/22 3/1
[ 8] b/22 4/2
[ 1] b/22 13/11


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 3/1

We should simply play 3/1, keeping our spare on the highest inner board point.



Neil Kazaross: 21 20/19 10/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 87
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBBC-a------C--bbbbbbAb--:1:1:1:31:6:5:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCCCa------bCaa--bbbbb--A:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 2/1eq: -0.822
Player:
Opponent:
19.42% (G:4.89% B:0.04%)
80.58% (G:26.28% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.826...-0.817) - [99.7%]
Duration: 17 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 3/2eq: -0.830 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
19.18% (G:4.84% B:0.04%)
80.82% (G:26.64% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.835...-0.826) - [0.3%]
Duration: 16 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/23 4/3eq: -0.844 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
18.93% (G:4.76% B:0.04%)
81.07% (G:27.02% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.848...-0.839) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24117444
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] b/23 2/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 2/1

We have to enter bar/23 then decide how to play the 1. Over the board I would just go with general principles and try to stay flexible and so would want to keep my highest numbers in my home board playable without leaving a blot – so I would play 2/1. This keeps a spare 3 or 2 in reserve.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCCa------bCaa--bbbbbA--:1:1:-1:11:6:5:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout111/9 3/2*(2) eq: +0.814
Player:
Opponent:
79.83% (G:27.42% B:0.67%)
20.17% (G:5.06% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.809...+0.819) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout120/19 10/9 3/2*(2) eq: +0.794 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
79.61% (G:26.29% B:0.66%)
20.39% (G:4.87% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.790...+0.799) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout110/8 3/2*(2) eq: +0.782 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
78.80% (G:26.86% B:0.66%)
21.20% (G:4.74% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.778...+0.787) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 38 seconds
4.Rollout120/19 11/10 3/2*(2) eq: +0.742 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
77.80% (G:25.09% B:0.64%)
22.20% (G:3.99% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.738...+0.747) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35766177
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/9 3/2*(2).

I don’t want them escaping with 6’s and would like to trap them back on the ace point. So I shift 3/2*(2) and then I’ll risk just a 63 shot to bring a builder to my 9 point. If they hit, I have 8 return shots and will be OK unless I dance.

By shifting, I leave them an awful 41, 51, 61, and 43. Of course they have plenty of rolls if I don’t hit, but I fear the escaping 6 and especially the super joker 66.



USBGF Members: 22 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCCa------bC-aa-bbbb-b-A:1:1:-1:54:6:5:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.991
Player:
Opponent:
85.63% (G:29.46% B:0.65%)
14.37% (G:2.52% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.987...+0.995) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 10/5eq: +0.967 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
84.47% (G:30.05% B:0.64%)
15.53% (G:2.80% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.963...+0.971) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35766177
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 13/8.

13/9 13/8 is clear bringing more firepower for the closeout and paying off to only a 53 shot while staying back on the 20 pt in hopes of capturing another checker should they enter poorly.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCCa-------C-ababbbb-b-A:1:1:1:32:6:5:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCCCb------bBb--Bbabbb---:0:0:-1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 61.74% (G:19.99% B:0.77%) 62.47% (G:20.29% B:0.81%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 38.26% (G:7.28% B:0.06%) 37.53% (G:7.35% B:0.07%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.388 +0.886
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+0.605 (-0.065)±0.010 (+0.595..+0.615)
played Double/Take:+0.670±0.016 (+0.654..+0.686)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.330)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85688127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Take
[ 6] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

If we had made the correct move last roll, we would not be in this position – but that is the past. We cannot change our decision, we must focus the position in front of us.

If we use the old Sylvester Race, Position and Threat criteria looking at it from Neil’s point of view, we notice that we are 43 pips up in the race. That alone says take. We at least temporarily have the stronger board but Neil has better future potential. As for threats, Neil’s threats are to improve his board then win with a hit. I would not double for money unless I suspected my opponent would pass. With Neil being behind in the match it must be close, but I am not convinced of the double so we have to take.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

The USBGF Members made a big error by breaking their 6 point and now face a difficult road coming home. It seems to me that my market will clearly be lost if I can remake my 6 point and they then pop loose a couple of blots.

Therefore, and noting that I trail slightly in the match, I double now.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCCCb------bBb--Bbabbb---:1:1:-1:51:6:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout111/10 11/6eq: +0.397
Player:
Opponent:
65.63% (G:21.31% B:0.90%)
34.37% (G:7.06% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.392...+0.403) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout17/6 7/2eq: +0.382 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
65.00% (G:22.97% B:0.95%)
35.00% (G:8.87% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.376...+0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 51 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85688127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/10 11/6.

My plan was after giving this cube that would surely be taken was to make my 6 point if possible and await my shots. I have two plays to compare: 7/6 7/2 and 11/10 11/6.

If I play 7/6 7/2, I will have a major issue with a blot on my 2 point that is hard to cover for a couple of turns and sometimes I may leave 3 blots after hitting them next turn.

If I play 11/10 11/6, I make a 5 prime and have no inside blot to worry about. That would seem to be the best play except for one big problem. That problem is leaving 12 shots! However, I’ll be in good shape if missed and most of their rolls that miss will force blot(s). If I get hit and enter I should be OK and I get return shots from the bar. The hit checker may also enter on the 6 point and provide me more coverage. When missed, I also have a spare checker to play if I cannot hit them. Still, I expect the decision is close.

The horror of dancing after being hit after 11/10 11/6 happens less than 15% of the time, and if it happens I have no other blot to worry about.

I’ll risk 11/10 11/6.



USBGF Members: 43 17/14 17/13
Neil Kazaross: 63 20/11*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCCCa------bCaa--bbbbb--A:1:1:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBCbB-----bBb--Bbabbb---:0:0:1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout113/8 4/1eq: -0.306
Player:
Opponent:
43.32% (G:12.70% B:0.18%)
56.68% (G:17.16% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.316...-0.296) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.368 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
42.56% (G:12.11% B:0.21%)
57.44% (G:18.98% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.378...-0.358) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 56 seconds
3.playedRollout16/3 6/1eq: -0.677 (-0.370)
Player:
Opponent:
37.60% (G:7.27% B:0.07%)
62.40% (G:20.52% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.689...-0.664) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 48 seconds
4.Rollout16/1 4/1eq: -0.831 (-0.525)
Player:
Opponent:
35.83% (G:8.06% B:0.09%)
64.17% (G:23.82% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.844...-0.818) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 6/3 6/1
[16] 13/8 4/1
[ 2] 6/1 4/1
[ 1] 13/10 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 4/1

We should reject any play that weakens our board like playing 6/3 6/1. This would give us one roll at best before we have to leave a blot or blots. We would rather strengthen our board so that points to 4/1. If we get into a blot hitting contest, we want the best board possible.

After 4/1, the only other 5 is 13/8, leaving 2 blots. Neil can hit with 3’s and 1’s. The 1’s are duplicated to cover his 6 point blot. This looks to be about as good a move as we can get so I recommend we play 13/8 4/1.


Steve Sax recommends: 13/8 4/1

We have to leave a shot or break our six point. This is not an ideal time to break our board, when our timing is as bad as it is.

Better to leave the shots now while Neil is attempting to develop and equalize board strength.

Neil has 3’s and 1’s to hit with 1’s and 5’s to cover.

We are far ahead in the race and after we make a five point board, Neil needs to tread with caution.

And while it’s true that clearing the checkers off of the 17 point is going to be a major chore, it has been made a little easier having made a fifth point in our board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCCCb------bBb--Bbabbb---:0:0:-1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles.


USBGF OLM 2018-06-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABBBbCa----bCb---bbbAb--A:0:0:1:44:6:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/17 21/17 6/2eq: +0.007
Player:
Opponent:
52.15% (G:14.55% B:0.27%)
47.85% (G:12.56% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.004...+0.017) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/17 21/17 13/9eq: -0.058 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
50.72% (G:16.66% B:0.36%)
49.28% (G:14.71% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.069...-0.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/13 6/2eq: -0.087 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
49.37% (G:20.78% B:0.40%)
50.63% (G:14.50% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.098...-0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/21 13/9(3)eq: -0.179 (-0.186)
Player:
Opponent:
47.37% (G:12.36% B:0.18%)
52.63% (G:10.85% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.188...-0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/13 21/17eq: -0.206 (-0.213)
Player:
Opponent:
46.45% (G:15.51% B:0.44%)
53.55% (G:13.93% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.216...-0.196) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] b/17 21/17 6/2
[ 5] b/17 21/17 13/9
[ 3] b/21 13/9(3)
[ 2] b/13 21/17
[ 1] b/13 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/17 21/17 6/2

We are ahead in the race by 42 pips after the roll. That is a lot. We want to get the back checkers moving so we should play b/17 21/17 with the first three 4’s.

At this point we should use Magriel’s Safe vs Bold Guide and say although we have the better board, Neil has more checkers back, an advanced anchor and is behind in the race so we should want to play safe. Also our one point lead in the says play safe. I tend to be a bit too aggressive sometimes, but here everything is saying play safe so we should play 6/2 rather than leave Neil shots.

So I recommend b/17 21/17 6/2 and await developments and see if Neil can tidy up his 18 point blot.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBBbBa----bCb--Bbbb-b---:0:0:-1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout118/13 7/4eq: +0.106
Player:
Opponent:
50.28% (G:12.93% B:0.48%)
49.72% (G:11.46% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.097...+0.115) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout118/10eq: -0.025 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:
47.61% (G:12.40% B:0.55%)
52.39% (G:15.19% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.035...-0.015) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
3.Rollout118/13 5/2eq: -0.160 (-0.266)
Player:
Opponent:
43.43% (G:10.45% B:0.36%)
56.57% (G:14.21% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.169...-0.151) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
4.Rollout120/15 18/15eq: -0.197 (-0.303)
Player:
Opponent:
43.59% (G:11.45% B:0.55%)
56.41% (G:20.64% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.208...-0.186) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/13 7/4.

This seems to be a straight forward play. 18/13 safeties a checker that will soon be a builder and 7/4 slots the 4 point that I must have to win after hitting a shot. I must avoid blunders like making the 15 point which doesn’t even achieve direct contact with the opposing checkers on my 8 point. When miles behind in the race, one should find ways to stay back safely for more contact!



USBGF Members: 63 13/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBCbB-----cBb--Babbab---:0:0:-1:62:6:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 6/4eq: +0.167
Player:
Opponent:
52.68% (G:13.73% B:0.55%)
47.32% (G:11.64% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.157...+0.176) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout113/5eq: +0.083 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
50.20% (G:12.75% B:0.51%)
49.80% (G:12.53% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.075...+0.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 6/4.

13/7 is basically forced for my 6. Then I spent a while comparing 6/4 with 7/5. 6/4 leaves me with 4 out of 5 adjacent points made whereas 7/5 leaves me with 3 of the 5 points made. 6/4 leaves my opponents 15 return shots from the bar at just one blot on my side should I hit somewhere but fail to cover whereas 7/5 leaves 18 return shots and 2 blots. The edge would seem to be to 6/4 but breaking one’s 6 point should be very carefully considered.

I then looked carefully at most of their blotting rolls and 6/4 seemed to have an edge over 7/5. If I can hit and remake my 6 point I will usually have a winning position, especially if I hit and can make a 5 prime.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBCbB-----bBb--Bbabbb---:0:0:1:53:6:5:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBCBbC-A---bCb---bbbAb---:0:0:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout18/6 3/2eq: +0.285
Player:
Opponent:
56.88% (G:24.09% B:0.71%)
43.12% (G:9.25% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.273...+0.297) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.playedRollout18/7 3/1* eq: +0.197 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
54.64% (G:21.92% B:0.37%)
45.36% (G:12.22% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.186...+0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 8/7 3/1*
[15] 8/6 3/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/6 3/2

Neil is stripped with no spares on top of any point. Some of his rolls could be very awkward, and he will usually have to break a point. He would rather break a point by hitting than break a point just leaving blots. This says play safe, and let Neil leave us the shots.

Magriel’s Safe vs Bold guide says play safe as well — although we have the better board, Neil has an anchor and more checkers back.

Having a 1 point lead makes us want to play safe.

Putting it altogether, I would play 8/6 3/2.



Neil Kazaross: 52 b/18*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABBBbCa----bCb---bbbAb--A:0:0:1:44:6:5:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBCbC-A---cCa---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:31:6:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout124/21 8/7eq: +0.549
Player:
Opponent:
61.54% (G:26.45% B:0.62%)
38.46% (G:7.69% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.540...+0.558) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 18 seconds
2.playedRollout124/21 4/3eq: +0.498 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
60.83% (G:23.04% B:0.49%)
39.17% (G:8.18% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.486...+0.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28929952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/21 4/3
[18] 24/21 8/7
[ 2] 8/4
[ 1] 13/10 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 8/7

Before the dice settles on the board, we know we would move up with a 1 or 3. With a 3 we are moving to the 21 point as we will be 50 pips ahead in the race so we just want to get out of Dodge, and that is easier to do from the 21 point. We also have 6 hitting numbers from the 21 point compared to 2 from the 23 point.

The 1 is interesting, we could play 4/3 duplicating 3’s for Neil to hit on both sides of the board if he enters, or 8/7 slotting the 7 point and having another builder for our 1 point. This was really tricky, and I did have the luxury of spending more time thinking about this than I would over the board. If we play 4/3 and Neil fans, I believe we have a double but it is a take, whereas if we play 8/7, we have a double but I think our position is too powerful and Neil would have to pass. Also 8/7 does give us a good 63 next turn which is very awkward after 4/3.

So putting it together, we should play 24/21 8/7.



Neil Kazaross: 21 b/24 13/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBCBbC-A---bCb---bbbAb---:0:0:1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 6/8 930p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-06-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBCbC-A---cCa---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 56.42% (G:24.11% B:0.44%) 56.79% (G:24.15% B:0.46%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 43.58% (G:7.73% B:0.34%) 43.21% (G:7.76% B:0.41%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.278 +0.619
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.306±0.010 (+0.296..+0.316)
     Double/Take:+0.111 (-0.195)±0.015 (+0.096..+0.127)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.694)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27404414
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] No Double
[ 9] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

I looked at this with the Value Equation = Prime + Blitz + Racing + Contact. This is a relative measure comparing both sides and got

VE = -3 + 1 + 5 -2 = 1, Therefore No Double for Money. Here we should be a bit more cautious as we have a 1 point lead. Players tend to undervalue a 1 point lead but it can and will change the proper action.

Then I looked at this in terms of Race, Position and Threat. We have race, maybe have a slightly better position but hardly any threats so again No double for money.

If we moved the back checker 24/23 so we could see daylight then we would almost have a double, if we moved it 24/21 so we not could hit with 61, 52 and 43 – then it would be Double / Pass.

But with the current position, I would not double.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBCbC-A---cCa---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:31:6:5:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-BaD-BB--dCA---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:62:6:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout114/8 6/4eq: -0.039
Player:
Opponent:
51.05% (G:12.21% B:0.58%)
48.95% (G:12.34% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.050...-0.028) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
2.Rollout114/6eq: -0.093 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
49.74% (G:12.57% B:0.61%)
50.26% (G:13.28% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.104...-0.082) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
3.Rollout113/5* eq: -0.216 (-0.177)
Player:
Opponent:
46.95% (G:15.94% B:1.29%)
53.05% (G:17.68% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.229...-0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33840375
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 14/8 6/4
[ 4] 13/5*
[ 1] 14/8 4/2*
[ 1] 14/6
[ 1] 8/2* 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 14/8 6/4

With every student who I have, I go over Magriel’s Safe vs Bold Guide. I say ‘Guide’ as it is not always correct, but it is the majority of the time. I remember a saying I read – ‘The strongest person may not always win the fight, nor the fastest person win the race, but if I have to bet money on it, then that’s how I would bet.’

Here Neil has the better board and 3 checkers back to our 1 checker back. This screams ‘Play Safe’ to me. Also having just a 1 point lead in the match gives me the same message. Therefore, I would play 14/8 6/4.



Neil Kazaross: 42 24/20 13/11
USBGF Members: 66 9/3(2) 8/2*(2)
Neil Kazaross: 62 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BBCbC-A---cCa---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:00:6:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 84
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-CBCAA---b--cb--bbb-A--:1:-1:1:66:2:5:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout123/5 8/2eq: +1.795
Player:
Opponent:
93.03% (G:83.38% B:0.46%)
6.97% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.792...+1.798) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout123/5 7/1eq: +1.775 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
92.65% (G:82.65% B:0.45%)
7.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.771...+1.779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33840375
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 23/5 8/2
[ 4] 23/5 7/1
[ 2] 23/11 8/2 7/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/5 8/2

We just rolled a great number. The first three 6’s should be played 23/5. There may not look like much difference between 8/2 and 7/1, but 7/1 makes us leave a blot on our 3 point if we roll 55, so we should instead play 8/2 which leaves no blots next roll.



Neil Kazaross: 11 no play
USBGF Members: 65 7/2 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 31 b/22
USBGF Members: 33 6/3*(2) 5/2 4/1
Neil Kazaross: 62 b/19
USBGF Members: 52 5/3 5/0
Neil Kazaross: 54 b/20 10/6
USBGF Members: 41 4/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 42 20/18 10/6
USBGF Members: 62 4/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 43 10/6 9/6
USBGF Members: 63 3/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 43 13/6
USBGF Members: 22 2/0(4)
Neil Kazaross: 53 19/14 9/6


USBGF Members win four points, and now lead 5-away/6-away



USBGF Members: 42 8/4 6/4

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:11:6:5:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout18/7(2) 6/5(2)eq: +0.149
Player:
Opponent:
52.09% (G:15.85% B:0.80%)
47.91% (G:15.79% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.136...+0.162) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 6/5(2)eq: +0.122 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
51.47% (G:14.47% B:0.72%)
48.53% (G:14.57% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.111...+0.133) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33840375
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/7(2) 6/5(2).

The proper play of 11 after 42 8/4 6/4 is to make two good points, risking a 7 shot, but with hopes for a 4 prime soon.



USBGF Members: 42 24/22 13/9
Neil Kazaross: 43 7/3* 6/3
USBGF Members: 42 b/23 13/9


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-BB--eC---aabb-bAA-:0:0:-1:21:6:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout113/11 8/7eq: +0.078
Player:
Opponent:
50.31% (G:16.34% B:0.89%)
49.69% (G:16.97% B:1.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.067...+0.089) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 8/7eq: +0.000 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
49.18% (G:15.02% B:0.80%)
50.82% (G:18.48% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.011...+0.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33840375
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 8/7.

8/7 is a must, making my bar point, so I have to decide between 24/22 and 13/11. 24/22 seems to expose me to blitz possibilities and if I make the 22 point, my back checkers are still blocked due to the opposing 9 point. Surely, 13/11 unstacking and leaving only 2 shots is better.



USBGF Members: 63 23/14*
Neil Kazaross: 51 b/20 24/23


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-BaD-BB--dCA---bbb-b-A-:0:0:1:62:6:5:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-BCC-A-A-b--cb--bbb-A--:1:-1:1:11:2:5:0:11:10
to play 11

1.Rollout123/22 8/7 4/3(2)eq: +1.665
Player:
Opponent:
89.54% (G:79.63% B:0.43%)
10.46% (G:0.93% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.661...+1.670) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 59 seconds
2.xgRollout110/9 8/7 4/3(2)eq: +1.607 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
88.16% (G:77.62% B:0.37%)
11.84% (G:1.02% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.602...+1.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout123/22 10/9 8/7 5/4eq: +1.606 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
87.72% (G:78.44% B:0.42%)
12.28% (G:1.21% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.601...+1.611) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 28 seconds
4.Rollout123/22 10/9 6/4eq: +1.590 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
87.44% (G:77.64% B:0.42%)
12.56% (G:1.30% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.585...+1.595) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 46 seconds
5.Rollout110/9 8/7 6/4eq: +1.583 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
87.23% (G:77.53% B:0.41%)
12.77% (G:1.39% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.578...+1.588) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 44 seconds
6.playedRollout110/7 5/4eq: +1.578 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
87.16% (G:77.23% B:0.42%)
12.84% (G:1.25% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.573...+1.583) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 03 seconds
7.Rollout110/8 4/3(2)eq: +1.577 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
87.88% (G:75.59% B:0.39%)
12.12% (G:1.09% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.572...+1.582) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 22 seconds
8.Rollout110/7 8/7eq: +1.566 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
87.21% (G:75.89% B:0.40%)
12.79% (G:1.22% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.561...+1.570) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 25 seconds
9.Rollout18/4eq: +1.560 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
86.98% (G:75.76% B:0.46%)
13.02% (G:1.22% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.555...+1.564) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 42 seconds
10.Rollout123/22 10/9 8/6eq: +1.546 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
86.55% (G:75.69% B:0.44%)
13.45% (G:1.40% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.540...+1.551) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 47 seconds
11.Rollout123/22 10/9 4/3(2)eq: +1.530 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
86.30% (G:74.85% B:0.36%)
13.70% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.524...+1.535) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 02 seconds
12.Rollout123/22 10/7eq: +1.523 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
86.03% (G:74.84% B:0.40%)
13.97% (G:1.55% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.518...+1.528) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 25 seconds
13.Rollout110/9 8/5eq: +1.519 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
85.89% (G:74.68% B:0.45%)
14.11% (G:1.46% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.514...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 21 seconds
14.Rollout123/22 10/9 5/3eq: +1.519 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
85.08% (G:76.84% B:0.41%)
14.92% (G:2.86% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.514...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 07 seconds
15.Rollout110/7 6/5eq: +1.515 (-0.150)
Player:
Opponent:
85.89% (G:74.54% B:0.39%)
14.11% (G:1.58% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.510...+1.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 04 seconds
16.Rollout18/6 4/3(2)eq: +1.513 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
86.23% (G:73.69% B:0.39%)
13.77% (G:1.21% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.508...+1.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33840375
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 10/7 5/4
[ 7] 10/9 8/7 6/4
[ 7] 10/7 8/7
[ 6] 23/22 10/9 8/7 5/4
[ 5] 23/22 10/7
[ 4] 23/22 8/7 4/3(2)
[ 3] 10/9 8/7 4/3(2)
[ 1] 23/22 10/9 6/4
[ 1] 23/22 10/9 5/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/22 8/7 4/3(2)

I first looked at 23/22 10/7, but this duplicates 5’s and 4’s on both sides of the board.

Next I considered 4/3(2), so that if Neil eventually anchors, he will be anchoring high so it will be easier to get our checkers past him. If we play 4/3(2), then we have to play 8/7 avoiding 44 from the bar. This leaves us with only the final 4 to play.

If we play 10/9, we duplicate 4’s so we have to play 23/22 giving us 1’s, 2’s, 3’s and 6’s to make our 4 point and 4’s and 5’s to escape. We now have a lot of good rolls, so I will go with 23/22 8/7 4/3(2).



Neil Kazaross: 42 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 84
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-CBCAA---b--cb--bbb-A--:1:-1:1:66:2:5:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-BBC-AA--b--cb--bbbAA--:1:-1:1:44:2:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout122/10 8/4eq: +1.594
Player:
Opponent:
87.60% (G:77.74% B:0.46%)
12.40% (G:1.35% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.590...+1.599) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 40 seconds
2.playedRollout122/10 9/5eq: +1.582 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
87.44% (G:77.09% B:0.44%)
12.56% (G:1.34% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.577...+1.587) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout122/14 9/5 8/4eq: +1.571 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
87.20% (G:76.45% B:0.44%)
12.80% (G:1.40% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.566...+1.575) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 45 seconds
4.Rollout122/6eq: +1.561 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
86.72% (G:76.69% B:0.43%)
13.28% (G:1.51% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.555...+1.566) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58079147
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 22/10 9/5
[12] 22/14 9/5 8/4
[ 7] 22/10 8/4
[ 3] 22/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/10 8/4

We should run 22/10 then look at the last 4.

We could play either 9/5 or 8/4 with the last 4. Years ago I remember reading an article by Bill Robertie saying if you have awkward number on one side of the board, make the play that makes that number useful elsewhere. Here we should not play a one 23/22 as now 6’s are blocked, and if we roll a 6, we use up the most timing. So, we should make a play that gives me a good one elsewhere, therefore we should play 8/4 rather than 9/5. I know this duplicates our 6’s but playing 9/5 duplicates our 5’s so I will go with 8/4.

It is probably close, and I could be wrong. In a chouette I would be happy to go with either.



Neil Kazaross: 44 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-BCC-A-A-b--cb--bbb-A--:1:-1:1:11:2:5:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-BBC--A--bA-cb--bbb-B--:1:-1:1:51:2:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout123/17eq: +1.486
Player:
Opponent:
85.07% (G:74.05% B:0.46%)
14.93% (G:2.94% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.482...+1.491) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout123/18 9/8eq: +1.447 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
83.92% (G:73.04% B:0.41%)
16.08% (G:3.05% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.442...+1.452) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 16 seconds
3.playedRollout123/22 13/8eq: +1.434 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
83.37% (G:72.94% B:0.41%)
16.63% (G:2.86% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.429...+1.439) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 23 seconds
4.Rollout123/18 6/5eq: +1.425 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
83.44% (G:71.98% B:0.42%)
16.56% (G:3.19% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.420...+1.429) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 33 seconds
5.Rollout123/22 23/18eq: +1.421 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
83.34% (G:72.04% B:0.41%)
16.66% (G:3.43% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.416...+1.426) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58079147
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 23/22 13/8
[ 4] 23/17
[ 2] 13/7
[ 2] 13/8 9/8
[ 1] 9/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/17

One of the advantages of playing over the board is you get to try out various moves before committing to them. Although I personally do not think this should be allowed it is useful in positions like these.

If we play 23/22 13/8, we need 6’s, 5’s and 3’s to make our 3 point and to escape our back checkers we need 6’s and 5’s, so we have duplicated our 6’s and 5’s. So this cannot be the correct move.

I agree that we need to get our back checkers moving so we have to play 23/18 then look for the best 1.

Playing 9/8 just reduces our point making rolls so scrap that.

Playing 23/22 just blocks our 6’s so scrap that.

We really need to be able to play our 4’s and 3’s, which playing 18/17 allows us to do.

I know in the last move I said ‘where is the game’ but our priority here is to guarantee mobility and this takes precedence over bring another checker into the zone.”



Neil Kazaross: 54 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-BBC-AA--b--cb--bbbAA--:1:-1:1:44:2:5:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 114
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-BBC-----bB-cb--bbb-B--:1:-1:1:31:2:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout113/9eq: +1.316
Player:
Opponent:
80.49% (G:69.05% B:0.44%)
19.51% (G:4.27% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.310...+1.321) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 52 seconds
2.xgRollout123/22 13/10eq: +1.293 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
80.22% (G:67.91% B:0.41%)
19.78% (G:4.16% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.287...+1.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58079147
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 13/9
[13] 23/22 13/10
[ 1] 23/22 7/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/9

I can understand why some players would want to split here, but the Danish players have a saying ‘where is the game?’. This saying means where should we be focusing my attention or what is our priority here. I believe our most important priority is to close Neil out or attack him if he enters from the bar. Playing 13/9 gives us a another builder 6 pips away from our open 3 point.

What are our bad numbers if we play 13/9 rather than splitting 13/10 23/22 ? We can handle 44 and 33, and notice that by advancing 23/22 we are now blocking our 6’s.

This is going to be close, so in a chouette, I would go with what the majority of the team wanted, but in a match 13/9 would be my play.



Neil Kazaross: 42 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-BBC--A--bA-cb--bbb-B--:1:-1:1:51:2:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBa-BBBB----bC-cb--bbb-B--:1:-1:1:41:2:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout17/2* eq: +0.355
Player:
Opponent:
56.90% (G:37.28% B:0.37%)
43.10% (G:13.95% B:1.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.348...+0.363) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout123/18eq: +0.252 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
57.39% (G:26.31% B:0.62%)
42.61% (G:11.98% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.245...+0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout123/22 13/9eq: +0.228 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:
54.85% (G:30.12% B:0.58%)
45.15% (G:13.12% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.221...+0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout113/8eq: +0.171 (-0.184)
Player:
Opponent:
52.74% (G:30.28% B:0.44%)
47.26% (G:14.42% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.164...+0.179) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25300992
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 7/2*
[ 3] 13/8
[ 2] 23/22 13/9
[ 2] 23/18



Neil Kazaross: 55 no play
USBGF Members: 43 13/6
Neil Kazaross: 64 no play
USBGF Members: 32 7/2
Neil Kazaross: 42 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 114
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBB-BBC-----bB-cb--bbb-B--:1:-1:1:31:2:5:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBa-BBBB----bC-cb--bbb-B--:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60.05% (G:33.64% B:0.52%) 60.31% (G:36.72% B:0.43%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.95% (G:10.91% B:0.72%) 39.69% (G:11.55% B:0.84%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.406 +0.968
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.631 (-0.191)±0.010 (+0.620..+0.641)
played Double/Take:+0.822±0.016 (+0.805..+0.838)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.178)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25300992
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] Double
[ 7] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

First I would think about whether I would double this for money. We have market losers and using the value equation we are in good shape so I would double.

If I would double for money, then I have to double at 9-away/6-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

Neil Kazaross takes.

A fine double at the score, but one I can’t pass. If I am hit and fan again I will be in serious trouble, but if I can enter I will have good chances. I am unsure whether this would be a proper cube at a “normal” score. That assessment should mean a clear take at the score.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBa-BBBB----bC-cb--bbb-B--:1:-1:1:41:2:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sun 5/20 915a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-05-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-BBCC----bC-cb--bbb-B--:0:0:1:65:2:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout17/1* 6/1eq: +0.391
Player:
Opponent:
53.99% (G:26.18% B:0.47%)
46.01% (G:13.57% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.377...+0.404) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
2.Rollout123/17 7/2* eq: +0.357 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
55.43% (G:21.76% B:1.09%)
44.57% (G:15.62% B:1.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.344...+0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
3.Rollout113/2* eq: +0.350 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
54.03% (G:23.14% B:0.96%)
45.97% (G:14.28% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.337...+0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25300992
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 7/1* 6/1
[ 4] 13/2*
[ 1] 23/17 7/2*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

Neil has too many good rolls that make his 7 or 8 points so we have to hit to stop him doing that.

Over the board, I would just play 7/1* 6/1. This creates a 4 point board and leaves no return shots from the bar. After the roll we will be ahead in the race by 22 pips.



Neil Kazaross: 11 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBa-BBBB----bC-cb--bbb-B--:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-BBCC----bC-cb--bbb-B--:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 57.47% (G:22.26% B:0.85%) 57.88% (G:22.80% B:0.85%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 42.53% (G:12.77% B:0.84%) 42.12% (G:12.95% B:0.89%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.224 +0.520
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.450±0.012 (+0.438..+0.462)
     Double/Take:+0.373 (-0.077)±0.016 (+0.357..+0.388)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.550)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25300992
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] No Double
[16] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

Although we are behind in the match, we do not have enough market losers. I see 66 and 55 as market losers, but that is about all. All rolls leave us with positive equity, we should just wait until we can give Neil a tough decision.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-BBCC----bC-cb--bbb-B--:0:0:1:65:2:5:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BBC-C---cC-bb--bbb-AA-:0:0:1:11:2:5:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout124/23 8/7(3)eq: +0.476
Player:
Opponent:
58.43% (G:20.94% B:1.09%)
41.57% (G:12.22% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.463...+0.488) - [98.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
2.xgRollout124/23 8/7(2) 6/5eq: +0.457 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
58.10% (G:20.21% B:1.10%)
41.90% (G:12.59% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.444...+0.470) - [2.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
3.Rollout18/7(3) 6/5eq: +0.390 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
56.62% (G:21.37% B:1.29%)
43.38% (G:13.97% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.378...+0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
4.Rollout124/22 8/7(2)eq: +0.367 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
56.40% (G:21.11% B:1.33%)
43.60% (G:14.87% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.353...+0.380) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
5.Rollout18/7(2) 8/6eq: +0.361 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
55.79% (G:21.55% B:1.29%)
44.21% (G:14.19% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.349...+0.374) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
6.Rollout123/22 8/7(3)eq: +0.344 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
55.49% (G:21.37% B:1.31%)
44.51% (G:14.08% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.331...+0.358) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
7.Rollout18/7(2) 6/4eq: +0.313 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent:
54.85% (G:20.36% B:1.26%)
45.15% (G:15.12% B:1.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.301...+0.325) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
8.Rollout123/22 8/7(2) 6/5eq: +0.297 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:
54.76% (G:20.80% B:1.46%)
45.24% (G:15.37% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.284...+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
9.Rollout124/22 23/22 6/5eq: +0.248 (-0.228)
Player:
Opponent:
53.12% (G:18.69% B:0.83%)
46.88% (G:11.92% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.236...+0.260) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72136467
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 24/23 8/7(3)
[10] 24/22 8/7(2)
[ 9] 24/23 8/7(2) 6/5
[ 7] 23/22 8/7(3)
[ 4] 24/22 23/22 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 8/7(2) 6/5

The first 2 ones should be played 8/7(2).

Initially I wanted to play 24/22, but we have just made Neil’s 6’s awkward, and if we play 24/22, we make his 6’s good again by letting him hit 9/3* if he needs to. So we should just tidy up the blots in Neil’s board with 24/23 then choose the last remaining one.

The choice has to be either 6/5 or 8/7 leaving no blots. I like the idea of making a 5 prime so we should leave the checker on the 8 point and play 6/5.

So putting it all together, we should play 24/23 8/7(2) 6/5.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BBCC----cC-bb--bbb-B--:0:0:-1:31:2:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout124/23 13/10eq: -0.437
Player:
Opponent:
42.60% (G:12.64% B:0.70%)
57.40% (G:22.16% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.449...-0.424) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 9/6eq: -0.589 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
39.66% (G:12.23% B:0.78%)
60.34% (G:26.13% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.602...-0.575) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.Rollout113/9eq: -0.619 (-0.182)
Player:
Opponent:
37.79% (G:11.11% B:0.63%)
62.21% (G:21.23% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.630...-0.607) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72136467
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 13/10.

24/23 is a must, as I need to split to see daylight directly before more builders come. If attacked I have a fine 3 point board, and if I can gain the initiative I may be able to use my outfield builders to work on my own prime.

Then 13/10 is obvious to keep all my assets.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-BBCC----bC-cb--bbb-B--:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 5/17 1100a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-05-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBCAC-a-cC-baa-bbb--aA:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 52.91% (G:22.27% B:1.35%) 52.88% (G:22.28% B:1.37%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 47.09% (G:9.85% B:0.41%) 47.12% (G:9.65% B:0.34%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.176 +0.394
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.242±0.011 (+0.231..+0.252)
     Double/Take:+0.160 (-0.081)±0.020 (+0.140..+0.180)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.758)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 29240170
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] No Double
[ 7] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

We are behind in the match and hit with any 1, 62, 53, 63, 32 and 33 or 20 rolls. That’s 56% of the time. Sounds like it could be a double, but hitting is not the same as winning. If the spare checker on our 8 point was on our 7 point then this would be a double, but only due to the score. Alter this to a money game with the spare on our 8 point moved to cover the blot on our 7 point and it is not quite a double.

Remember we stay on the bar with 9 rolls.

It would be nice to double but we are not quite there yet.



USBGF Members: 53 b/17*
Neil Kazaross: 43 b/18*
USBGF Members: 32 b/23 13/10*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---BBCaC-A-cB-baA-bbb-Aa-:0:0:-1:31:2:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 18/15* eq: -0.278
Player:
Opponent:
46.12% (G:16.83% B:1.04%)
53.88% (G:22.19% B:1.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.290...-0.266) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 9/8* eq: -0.458 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:
43.44% (G:14.18% B:0.80%)
56.56% (G:28.23% B:2.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.474...-0.442) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67357186
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 18/15*.

This is clear to me. By hitting on the 15 point, I duplicatee aces, take away one of their builders, gain more pips, leave fewer return shots and also link my 2 outfield blots. B/24 18/15* looks to be best by far.



USBGF Members: 41 b/24* 17/13
Neil Kazaross: 61 b/24 15/9


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BBC-C---cC-bb--bbb-AA-:0:0:1:11:2:5:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-C-a-cD-bab-c-b--aA:0:0:1:65:2:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.xgRollout1Bar/14eq: -0.274
Player:
Opponent:
42.00% (G:4.50% B:0.14%)
58.00% (G:4.58% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.282...-0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.307 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
41.31% (G:4.41% B:0.22%)
58.69% (G:5.13% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.315...-0.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 39777494
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] b/20 13/7 (coin flip!)
[16] b/14
[ 1] b/20 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/14

We are 11 pips behind in the race and we have just rolled 11 pips. So how do we intend to win this game?

If we stay with bar/20 13/7, Neil has 4 checkers aimed at us to make a 3 point board. If Neil points on us, we will probably have a shot at the blot on his 1 point, but if we miss we will be behind in the race in a position I would not want.

If we run Bar/14, we do leave a double shot but even if hit our chances of entering are better as Neil is not making a point at the same time unless he rolls 44. If missed we are alive in the game with a chance to win. If Neil hits with 31, we will have any 1 + 63 + 54 + 65 to hit back. Staying on the target range with Bar/20 13/7 scares me too much.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBCAC-a-cC-bab-cAb--a-:0:0:-1:31:2:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5* 6/5eq: -0.241
Player:
Opponent:
47.18% (G:9.60% B:0.32%)
52.82% (G:22.17% B:1.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.251...-0.231) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout113/9eq: -0.341 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
41.90% (G:4.14% B:0.15%)
58.10% (G:13.90% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.348...-0.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 39777494
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5* 6/5.

If I don’t point, I have to play 13/9 and that is an even race where I am leaving 15 shots, so I am a clear underdog. I will also be an underdog if I point as that leaves 20 shots and I have some risk of losing a gammon due to 4 blots.

But after pointing, my opponents will dance 25% of the time, and then I should be in fine shape. If hit, I can sometimes re-hit or make an outside point and may then be OK.

It has been said, that when in doubt… HIT. I’m not really in much doubt so I’ll play 8/5* 6/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBCAC-a-cC-baa-bbb--aA:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-C-a-cD-bab-c-b--aA:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.55% (G:17.87% B:0.65%) 55.76% (G:17.87% B:0.64%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.45% (G:6.51% B:0.18%) 44.24% (G:6.36% B:0.20%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.218 +0.460
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.327±0.009 (+0.317..+0.336)
     Double/Take:+0.234 (-0.093)±0.012 (+0.221..+0.246)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.673)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54829122
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] No Double
[ 6] Double


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-C-a-cD-bab-c-b--aA:0:0:1:56:2:5:0:11:10
to play 56

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBCAC---cB-bab-c-b-Ba-:0:0:1:55:2:5:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout123/18(2) 8/3(2)eq: +0.899
Player:
Opponent:
70.53% (G:30.16% B:0.64%)
29.47% (G:6.45% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.891...+0.906) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout113/3 8/3 6/1* eq: +0.868 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
67.58% (G:41.91% B:1.02%)
32.42% (G:9.63% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.857...+0.878) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.Rollout123/18 8/3(2) 6/1* eq: +0.812 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
67.19% (G:41.21% B:1.27%)
32.81% (G:11.65% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.801...+0.823) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
4.Rollout18/3(3) 6/1* eq: +0.806 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
65.21% (G:40.20% B:0.80%)
34.79% (G:9.05% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.795...+0.818) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
5.Rollout123/13 8/3(2)eq: +0.763 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
65.07% (G:29.63% B:0.80%)
34.93% (G:8.54% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.755...+0.772) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 41 seconds
6.playedRollout123/13(2)eq: +0.729 (-0.170)
Player:
Opponent:
69.88% (G:16.63% B:0.38%)
30.12% (G:4.25% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.722...+0.736) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
7.Rollout123/18(2) 13/8 6/1* eq: +0.705 (-0.193)
Player:
Opponent:
64.54% (G:27.65% B:0.66%)
35.46% (G:10.02% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.696...+0.714) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
8.Rollout123/8 6/1* eq: +0.626 (-0.272)
Player:
Opponent:
62.34% (G:27.19% B:0.80%)
37.66% (G:10.47% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.617...+0.636) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
9.Rollout123/18(2) 13/8 7/2eq: +0.605 (-0.293)
Player:
Opponent:
61.62% (G:20.97% B:0.59%)
38.38% (G:8.71% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.595...+0.615) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
10.Rollout18/3(2) 7/2 6/1* eq: +0.591 (-0.307)
Player:
Opponent:
61.81% (G:37.20% B:0.80%)
38.19% (G:11.86% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.580...+0.603) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
11.Rollout123/18(2) 13/8(2)eq: +0.574 (-0.325)
Player:
Opponent:
61.02% (G:18.64% B:0.42%)
38.98% (G:6.25% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.564...+0.583) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
12.Rollout123/18(2) 8/3 7/2eq: +0.568 (-0.331)
Player:
Opponent:
60.41% (G:22.60% B:0.59%)
39.59% (G:10.92% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.557...+0.579) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
13.Rollout123/18 23/13 6/1* eq: +0.558 (-0.341)
Player:
Opponent:
61.96% (G:26.36% B:1.04%)
38.04% (G:13.21% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.547...+0.569) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
14.Rollout123/18(2) 7/2 6/1* eq: +0.548 (-0.350)
Player:
Opponent:
60.76% (G:25.71% B:0.60%)
39.24% (G:10.86% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.537...+0.559) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
15.Rollout123/18 8/3(3)eq: +0.533 (-0.366)
Player:
Opponent:
57.12% (G:30.13% B:1.82%)
42.88% (G:14.15% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.522...+0.544) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 21 seconds
16.Rollout18/3(3) 7/2eq: +0.531 (-0.368)
Player:
Opponent:
57.23% (G:29.03% B:0.83%)
42.77% (G:11.15% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.520...+0.542) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
17.Rollout113/3(2)eq: +0.505 (-0.393)
Player:
Opponent:
56.74% (G:27.14% B:0.68%)
43.26% (G:8.59% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.497...+0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54829122
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 23/13(2)
[10] 23/18(2) 8/3(2)
[ 6] 13/3 8/3 6/1*
[ 3] 13/3(2)
[ 3] 23/18 8/3(2) 6/1*
[ 2] 23/8 6/1*
[ 1] 23/18(2) 13/8 6/1*
[ 1] 8/3(3) 7/2
[ 1] 8/3(3) 6/1*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 119
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBCAC---cD-bab-c-b--a-:0:0:-1:63:2:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/18* 18/15eq: -0.332
Player:
Opponent:
44.38% (G:6.33% B:0.25%)
55.62% (G:17.83% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.341...-0.322) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
2.Rollout124/18* 9/6eq: -0.378 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
42.56% (G:7.02% B:0.27%)
57.44% (G:18.43% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.386...-0.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54829122
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/18*/15.

This is a life saving roll for me, as I play 24/18*/15. I will be in fine shape if missed, as I will lead in the race and hopefully can cover my 9 point and head towards home.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-C-a-cD-bab-c-b--aA:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBCAC---cB-bab-c-b-Ba-:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.83% (G:25.62% B:1.11%) 63.93% (G:26.37% B:1.16%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.17% (G:10.13% B:0.47%) 36.07% (G:10.62% B:0.58%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.421 +0.917
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.705 (-0.075)±0.011 (+0.694..+0.716)
xg Double/Take:+0.780±0.015 (+0.765..+0.795)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.220)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54829122
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] No Double
[18] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We are behind in the match 9-away 6-away.

We have rolls that attack on our 1 point, rolls that hit in the outfield and rolls that just make our bar point. We have enough market losers to turn the cube so we should double.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBCAC---cB-bab-c-b-Ba-:0:0:1:55:2:5:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBC-C---eC-a-b-c-b-Ba-:0:0:1:51:2:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout123/22 6/1* eq: +0.492
Player:
Opponent:
57.89% (G:23.53% B:0.61%)
42.11% (G:11.53% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.483...+0.501) - [83.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout18/7 6/1* eq: +0.485 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
57.48% (G:25.77% B:0.68%)
42.52% (G:12.06% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.473...+0.496) - [16.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
3.playedRollout113/7eq: +0.468 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
57.56% (G:22.97% B:0.84%)
42.44% (G:11.09% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.455...+0.481) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
4.Rollout123/18 6/5eq: +0.422 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
58.13% (G:20.82% B:0.83%)
41.87% (G:14.26% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.410...+0.434) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
5.Rollout123/22 23/18eq: +0.418 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
58.61% (G:19.25% B:0.81%)
41.39% (G:13.60% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.408...+0.429) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
6.Rollout123/18 8/7eq: +0.418 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
57.72% (G:21.95% B:0.99%)
42.28% (G:14.64% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.405...+0.431) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
7.Rollout123/22 13/8eq: +0.381 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
56.91% (G:20.26% B:0.62%)
43.09% (G:11.61% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.370...+0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
8.Rollout18/3 6/5eq: +0.336 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:
54.61% (G:22.02% B:0.66%)
45.39% (G:11.88% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.324...+0.348) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
9.Rollout123/22 8/3eq: +0.314 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:
55.08% (G:21.51% B:0.83%)
44.92% (G:14.19% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.302...+0.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
10.Rollout18/3 4/3eq: +0.313 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:
54.53% (G:21.39% B:0.66%)
45.47% (G:12.39% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.300...+0.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
11.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: +0.299 (-0.193)
Player:
Opponent:
54.54% (G:20.40% B:0.61%)
45.46% (G:11.83% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.288...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54829122
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 13/7
[7] 23/22 6/1*
[7] 23/22 13/8
[6] 23/22 23/18
[5] 8/7 6/1*
[4] 13/8 6/5
[1] 23/22 8/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/7 6/1*

I really want to make my bar point so we should move 8/7, then decide on how to play the 5.

13/8 gives us a cover without losing the 8 point.

6/1* puts Neil on the bar. With 9 of his rolls he will stay on the bar. Only 6 rolls hit, and none of his hits both hit and cover his ace point. The hit also stops him improving on his side of the board so we should play 8/7 6/1*.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBCAC---eB-a-b-c-b-Ba-:0:0:-1:43:2:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.793
Player:
Opponent:
35.96% (G:10.25% B:0.56%)
64.04% (G:26.65% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.807...-0.780) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout113/6eq: -0.848 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
34.82% (G:9.86% B:0.73%)
65.18% (G:26.66% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.861...-0.834) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54829122
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 13/9.

I can bring two checkers down to unstack and make a new point and create a builder.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBCAC---cB-bab-c-b-Ba-:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-c-b-AaA:0:0:1:22:2:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2)eq: +0.300
Player:
Opponent:
55.13% (G:18.56% B:0.89%)
44.87% (G:13.65% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.288...+0.312) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/4 6/4eq: +0.230 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
53.59% (G:18.54% B:0.80%)
46.41% (G:14.04% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.219...+0.242) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90188296
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[43] b/23 13/11 6/4(2)
[ 1] b/23 8/4 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 13/11 6/4(2)

The default play with two 2’s is 6/4(2), improving our board. So that just leaves the last two. I like 13/11 giving us more builders for the 9, 7 or 5 points.


Steve Sax recommends: b/23 13/11 6/4(2)

We are for sure making our four point. The last deuce seems clear to bring a builder down (13/11), as the benefit of the extra builder far outweighs the risk of being hit with 6/4.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-C-D--AeC---b-c-b-Ba-:0:0:-1:32:2:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/22 13/10eq: -0.374
Player:
Opponent:
43.25% (G:13.60% B:0.66%)
56.75% (G:20.07% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.379...-0.369) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 10 minutes
2.Rollout16/1eq: -0.402 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
42.42% (G:13.03% B:0.51%)
57.58% (G:19.59% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.406...-0.397) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 45 minutes
3.Rollout213/8eq: -0.406 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
42.46% (G:12.91% B:0.59%)
57.54% (G:19.69% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.419...-0.394) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
4.Rollout213/11 13/10eq: -0.418 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
42.09% (G:13.55% B:0.76%)
57.91% (G:19.93% B:1.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.431...-0.406) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90188296
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90188296
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 13/10.

Often when the ace point is slotted, it is best to cover it so as not to have to worry about that blot later and since it increases the chance that your opponent dances when hit. But here, I see higher priorities. The USBGF Members are poised to make both their bar and 5 points soon and I need an anchor to help offset that. So this means 24/22 and then 13/10 goes along nicely with that and unstacks my mid point to create a new builder. Note also that my builder on the 13 point is difficult to hit since all shots but 53 are blocked and 53 also can be used to point on me.



USBGF Members: 63 11/5 8/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aBBC-C---dC-a-b-c-b-Ba-:0:0:-1:63:2:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.xgRollout113/7 10/7eq: -0.554
Player:
Opponent:
40.11% (G:12.21% B:0.60%)
59.89% (G:25.47% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.565...-0.543) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2.playedRollout122/13eq: -0.592 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
39.87% (G:10.06% B:0.56%)
60.13% (G:25.75% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.604...-0.580) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57485984
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/13.

Plays like this with clearly divergent plans when each play looks fine can be difficult. I took a long look at this one and neither play stood out as clearly best. It might seem normal to make my bar point, but that leaves my back checkers exposed to attack from 10 checkers in the zone. My counter chances after being attacked aren’t as good as they could be due to my blot on my ace point. This and the fact that I am only hit by a 53 cause me to think that running to the mid point is more prudent. I also prefer running over 10/1.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBC-C---eC-a-b-c-b-Ba-:0:0:1:51:2:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-05-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 39
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBBAa----A--A-----Acf--:2:-1:-1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.80% (G:26.08% B:0.94%) 71.78% (G:25.85% B:2.60%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 28.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.721 +1.076
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.822 (-0.178)±0.001 (+0.821..+0.824)
     Redouble/Take:+1.041 (+0.041)±0.001 (+1.039..+1.042)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90188296
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 57 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] Pass
[ 7] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Pass

I did this exactly as I would over the board and went through the rolls counting the number of rolls that leave us a shot.

The direct shots we get next turn are after Neil rolls 33, 11, 65, 64, 63, 61, 43, 42, 31 and 21.

The indirect shots (from the bar) we get next turn are after Neil rolls 22, 62, 54, 52, 51, 41, and 32.

Then I calculated that we hit roughly 1/3 of the time for the 18 directs and roughly 1/5 for the 13 indirects is about 9 shots. Then we have to win from there so say 70% of the time. We are not guaranteed to cover the slotted 6 point. Even if we are hit and do not hit back, depending on where we enter we may get a latter shot. All this makes it hard to calculate the exact win percentage over the board so I would just go with around the initial 9 rolls or 25%.

What percentage of the time do we need to win and how do we calculate it over the board? On an 8 cube when both players are 9 away or greater the formula for the take point for the leader is

25% + 1.5% * Difference
= 25 + (1.5 * 1) = 25 + 1.5 = 26.5%, the actual take point is 27.18

We actually win around 28% of the time here (my estimate was off) but the other factor is the number of gammons we lose. It has to be at least 20% so this pushes us into pass territory. Therefore, we just do not have enough to take here so I would pass.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

My detailed calculations show that I will be hit 435 times out of the 1296 sequences of the next two rolls. That’s about 1/3 of the time. We have some reference position from earlier where I was on the bar with the 6 point slotted and one builder in the outfield. These show my losing somewhat less than 60% of the time. I considered that a couple of the times I am hit after this roll may be jokers that close me out. Therefore, I estimated that I lose a total of 60% of the games as a result of being hit next turn.

1/3 x 60% = 20%.

But things aren’t over if I am missed unless (for practical purposes) I escape home with a 44,55, or 66. So we have 5/9 of the time where I can be hit in subsequent rolls.

I estimated that I could be hit 25% of the time later and would lose 60% of those for 15%.

5/9 x 15%= 8 1/3% additional losses.

So I estimated than I lose 28 1/3% from here. Clearly my opponents take point is higher than at a “normal” score, and clearly they have almost no recube vig so it became trivial for me to recube this volatile position. Considering that some of my wins are gammons which, while being of small value, still help me somewhat, I have no real idea whether the USBGF Members can eke out a take here.


Neil Kazaross wins four points and leads 6-away/9-away.



USBGF Members: 51 24/23 13/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:41:2:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/2* 2/1* eq: -0.212
Player:
Opponent:
46.37% (G:13.08% B:0.47%)
53.63% (G:15.49% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.217...-0.207) - [96.7%]
Duration: 16 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout113/8eq: -0.218 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
46.27% (G:12.24% B:0.54%)
53.73% (G:15.40% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.223...-0.214) - [3.3%]
Duration: 14 hours 42 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: -0.232 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
45.91% (G:10.70% B:0.58%)
54.09% (G:14.63% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.237...-0.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 09 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90188296
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/2*/1*.

Double hitting early in the game and ending up with a checker on your ace point is over-rated by quite a few players in my experience. I’d gladly re-roll if that were allowed. But here, I know that double hitting is somewhat the best of a bad batch of choices.



USBGF Members: 62 b/23
Neil Kazaross: 42 8/4 6/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-c-b-AaA:0:0:1:22:2:5:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10