USBGF OLM 2017-11-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 141
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-b-BCBB---ABd--c-bbbB---:1:1:1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout112/5eq: +0.214
Player:
Opponent:
46.73% (G:10.09% B:0.45%)
53.27% (G:12.17% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.211...+0.217) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 29 minutes
2.Rollout112/10 6/1eq: +0.202 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
46.49% (G:9.68% B:0.41%)
53.51% (G:12.23% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.200...+0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout213/11 6/1eq: +0.158 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
44.98% (G:9.80% B:0.34%)
55.02% (G:12.98% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.150...+0.166) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
4.Rollout213/8 12/10eq: +0.144 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
44.15% (G:10.01% B:0.51%)
55.85% (G:12.18% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.136...+0.152) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
5.Rollout213/11 12/7eq: +0.141 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
44.02% (G:10.03% B:0.49%)
55.98% (G:12.23% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.133...+0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
6.Rollout213/11 13/8eq: +0.131 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
43.78% (G:9.82% B:0.36%)
56.22% (G:11.91% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.124...+0.139) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 12/5
[ 3] 13/11 12/7
[ 3] 12/10 6/1
[ 1] 13/11 13/8
[ 1] 13/11 6/1
[ 1] 13/8 12/10


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 12/5

We are ahead in the race, with Neil having 2 checkers behind our 4 prime and we have 2 checkers behind his broken 4 prime. Notice that we are at the edge of the prime with 2 numbers which allow us to escape while Neil only has one direct number that allows him to escape.

I do not want to do anything to risk being hit so I would just play the quiet 12/5.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-b-CCBB----Bd--c-bbbB---:1:1:-1:44:3:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout111/7(4)eq: -0.144
Player:
Opponent:
56.27% (G:11.37% B:0.72%)
43.73% (G:9.96% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.150...-0.137) - [100.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout111/7(3) 8/4eq: -0.167 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
55.30% (G:11.68% B:0.79%)
44.70% (G:10.00% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.174...-0.160) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/7(4).

11/7(4) is a nice natural play with this fine roll, giving me a 5 prime with some spares to handle upcoming rolls, or to be builders should they decide to run a checker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-b-CCBB----B---cdbbbB---:1:1:1:44:3:5:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sun 11/19 915a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-11-16

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-c-BCBB----Bc--cAbbbB---:1:1:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout118/12eq: +0.378
Player:
Opponent:
51.90% (G:11.71% B:0.75%)
48.10% (G:13.26% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.369...+0.386) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout118/13 6/5eq: +0.341 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
50.76% (G:11.54% B:0.70%)
49.24% (G:13.42% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.334...+0.349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 18/12
[ 4] 18/13 6/5
[ 1] 13/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 18/12

We need to move our checker on the 18 point to safety. We want to avoid being hit on the 18 point and then Neil making his prime. So 18/13 with the 5.

The point we most want to make is our 9 point and prime Neil. Therefore we need to move 13/12 giving us more chances to make the 9 point or hit if Neil comes out with 61 or 62.

Putting that altogether we get 18/12.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 141
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-c-BCBB---ABc--c-bbbB---:1:1:-1:65:3:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout122/11eq: -0.293
Player:
Opponent:
50.75% (G:12.67% B:0.99%)
49.25% (G:10.59% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.301...-0.285) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
2.Rollout122/16 11/6eq: -0.388 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
48.22% (G:13.58% B:0.87%)
51.78% (G:12.50% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.397...-0.380) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
3.Rollout111/6 8/2eq: -0.575 (-0.282)
Player:
Opponent:
41.75% (G:13.26% B:1.08%)
58.25% (G:12.81% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.583...-0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/11.

22/11 is automatic here, freeing a back checker to a safe spot and making this about an even game now.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 141
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-b-BCBB---ABd--c-bbbB---:1:1:1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aA-b-ADBBa---Bb--c-bbbBA--:1:1:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.Rollout16/5 6/1eq: +0.250
Player:
Opponent:
46.03% (G:15.03% B:1.08%)
53.97% (G:16.29% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.247...+0.254) - [51.4%]
Duration: 9 hours 37 minutes
2.playedRollout123/18 6/5eq: +0.250 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
47.08% (G:13.26% B:1.04%)
52.92% (G:17.23% B:1.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.246...+0.254) - [48.6%]
Duration: 11 hours 14 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88621563
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 23/18 6/5
[13] 6/5 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/5 6/1

Obviously we have to cover the 5 point blot with 6/5.

If this were money I would play 23/18 but we are 8 away 6 away holding a 2 cube. If we redouble and Gammon Neil then we win the match exactly. So I have to consider playing 6/1 covering the 1 point. Covering the 1 point means Neil has no hitting numbers next turn.

I like the mobility of 23/18 but I would rather try to win this match now, so although it looks ugly, I play 6/1.


Steve Sax recommends: 23/18 6/5

In this position White rolls a 5-1 trailing in the match and owning the cube. This is a pretty handy shake as it of course makes the five-point but also does something constructive with the five.

My first instinct was that it was obvious to come out with the five as we escape a piece from Neil’s board and keep a builder on our six-point in our endeavor to make a five-prime.

Now that goals is quite a way off as we must hope to be missed and then bring enough builders on White’s four-prime to attempt to extend it to a five-prime.

And even if White is hit on his ace-point it’s not a total loss. That piece out of play is somewhat of an eyesore in that it will always be a problem until the ace-point is made, and even if that is accomplished you’re only playing with 13 checkers in a prime versus prime game.

Additionally, the fact that aces are duplicate makes coming out a bit less risky as Neil has limited numbers to hit White back. Any ace as well as 2-2, 2-4, 3-4 and 4-4 (17 out of 36) which is a little less than half of the time.

Also, if White is hit, he can land on the 23-point and potentially make a back game out of it although that wouldn’t be the ideal game plan since both sides would still have multiple checkers back.

On the more than half of the time Black doesn’t hit White, we will be attempting to either make Neil’s bar-point or hit him on our nine-point if he is unable or unwilling to move that checker.

That bonus is mitigated in some small part as fours could be duplicated either allowing us to hit on our nine-point or making the defensive 18-point on his side of the board.

It’s a super close decision and one which might sway it in favor of making the ace-point is the fact that Black will stay out more than twice as often as times where White chose to come out to the 18-point.

If that did occur (25% of the time), White will be shooting at Black on his nine-point with half of his shots sending Neil to the bar.

My vote was to make the five and come out to the 18-point but making the ace gets the very tiniest nod over coming out.

In the end it might come down to style, a term which I don’t generally like using in backgammon. However if one play or another leads you to a type of game you feel more comfortable or more suitably put, a game in which you understand how to proceed then you should make that choice.



Neil Kazaross: 53 b/22 16/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-c-BCBB----Bc--cAbbbB---:1:1:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-a-aEBBa---Bb--c-bbbBa-A:1:1:1:21:3:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23* 6/5*eq: -0.212
Player:
Opponent:
35.24% (G:9.97% B:1.02%)
64.76% (G:26.20% B:2.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.222...-0.203) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23* 23/22eq: -0.317 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:
31.40% (G:6.77% B:0.45%)
68.60% (G:20.21% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.325...-0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22eq: -0.337 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
29.77% (G:6.24% B:0.28%)
70.23% (G:16.99% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.344...-0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35762205
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] b/23* 6/5*
[ 3] b/22
[ 3] b/23*/22


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23* 6/5*

How do we intend to win this?

  • We are not going to Blitz Neil.
  • We are unlikely to prime him (but could), especially with the blot on our 1 point.
  • The race does not look good.
  • How about playing for contact from the 22 anchor? Not great.

If we play passively, we are hoping to win from the 22 point anchor. I do not like this idea. So maybe we could prime him or play a backgame – in either of those game plans we need a prime and we can start that by hit Neil with Bar/23* then hit Neil off our 5 point with 6/5*.

Once we have hit 2 checkers, Neil has no choice how he plays his entering rolls so will hit us if he rolls a 1 – and I want him to roll a 1. Then we have a chance to make our 23 point. Also Nil has less chance of hitting us on our 5 point with 2 checkers on the bar.

We are not in good shape but this is the only game plan that gives us the best chance.



Neil Kazaross: 63 b/22


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aA-b-ADBBa---Bb--c-bbbBA--:1:1:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aa--ECBa---Bb--cabbbB--A:1:1:1:62:3:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout1Bar/23 13/7eq: -0.498
Player:
Opponent:
26.28% (G:5.05% B:0.34%)
73.72% (G:22.65% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.506...-0.491) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/23 7/1eq: -0.516 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
25.48% (G:5.44% B:0.37%)
74.52% (G:22.25% B:1.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.523...-0.508) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 22/16eq: -0.520 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
28.73% (G:6.77% B:0.67%)
71.27% (G:33.03% B:2.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.529...-0.511) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 8/2*eq: -0.577 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
25.96% (G:5.55% B:0.59%)
74.04% (G:30.11% B:1.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.586...-0.569) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] b/23 7/1
[ 9] b/23 8/2*
[ 9] b/23 13/7
[ 4] b/23 22/16


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 154
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Aaa--EBBa---Bb--cabbbBA--:1:1:-1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout123/20 7/2*eq: +0.285
Player:
Opponent:
68.33% (G:20.89% B:1.18%)
31.67% (G:8.58% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.276...+0.294) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
2.Rollout123/15eq: +0.255 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
67.40% (G:23.26% B:1.81%)
32.60% (G:10.85% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.247...+0.263) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
3.Rollout116/13 7/2*eq: +0.244 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
66.73% (G:22.72% B:1.74%)
33.27% (G:9.27% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.235...+0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
4.Rollout18/5 7/2*eq: +0.222 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
65.71% (G:22.79% B:1.25%)
34.29% (G:8.97% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.213...+0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
5.Rollout116/11 7/4eq: +0.216 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
65.85% (G:20.55% B:1.18%)
34.15% (G:8.61% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.208...+0.224) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/20 7/2*.

Many errors are caused by players talking themselves out of reasons to hit. With me having the best possible 3 point board and my opponents having a 1 point board with a blot on their ace point and being otherwise badly stripped and stacked, I certainly won’t fall victim to any passive play.

Of course I hoped to make my bar point this turn but the dice wouldn’t let me. So I’ll play 7/2* and then I think it is worth getting more connectivity and aiming for points I want in a positional battle with 23/20, risking 3 entering joker doubles.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-a-aEBBa---Bb--c-bbbBa-A:1:1:1:21:3:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a--ECBa--aBb--cabbbB--A:1:1:1:43:3:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout1Bar/18*eq: -0.206
Player:
Opponent:
34.19% (G:8.47% B:1.08%)
65.81% (G:19.87% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.214...-0.198) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/9*eq: -0.418 (-0.212)
Player:
Opponent:
29.33% (G:6.28% B:0.72%)
70.67% (G:24.88% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.426...-0.409) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] b/18*
[ 1] b/22 13/9*



Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23 13/7*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aa--ECBa---Bb--cabbbB--A:1:1:1:26:3:5:0:11:10
to play 26

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 155
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----ECBa--bBb--cAbbbB---:0:0:-1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:72.72% (G:18.33% B:0.84%)72.92% (G:19.23% B:1.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:27.28% (G:4.63% B:0.22%)27.08% (G:4.92% B:0.30%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.626+1.347
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.866 (-0.132)±0.004 (+0.862..+0.870)
played Double/Take:+0.997±0.006 (+0.991..+1.004)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.003)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:80.6%
Duration: 15 hours 22 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Take
[ 9] Pass


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 155
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----ECBa--bBb--cAbbbB---:1:1:-1:62:3:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout124/22 13/7*eq: +0.418
Player:
Opponent:
72.33% (G:19.44% B:1.12%)
27.67% (G:5.67% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.411...+0.426) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
2.Rollout124/16eq: +0.380 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
72.21% (G:11.16% B:0.40%)
27.79% (G:3.60% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.374...+0.385) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
3.Rollout113/11 13/7*eq: +0.330 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
69.22% (G:19.77% B:1.14%)
30.78% (G:6.12% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.322...+0.338) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 13/7*.

If this were DMP, I am not sure what the best play is between hitting and making the 16 point. If it were gammon save, I’d wimp and make the 16 point. But here, by attacking I can win considerably more gammons with little risk.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a--ECBa--aBb--cabbbB--A:1:1:1:43:3:5:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EBCa--bBb--c-bbbBA--:0:0:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.Rollout123/18 6/5eq: -0.940
Player:
Opponent:
29.79% (G:5.37% B:0.40%)
70.21% (G:24.67% B:1.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.957...-0.922) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout123/22 6/1*eq: -0.975 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
27.05% (G:4.66% B:0.21%)
72.95% (G:17.57% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.990...-0.960) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
3.playedRollout123/18 8/7eq: -0.983 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
27.05% (G:4.86% B:0.10%)
72.95% (G:18.51% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.999...-0.967) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
4.Rollout123/22 8/3eq: -1.000 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
26.51% (G:4.52% B:0.23%)
73.49% (G:19.49% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.009...-0.991) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
5.Rollout18/7 6/1*eq: -1.000 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
26.81% (G:4.87% B:0.28%)
73.19% (G:20.46% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.008...-0.992) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 23/18 8/7
[ 9] 23/18 6/5
[ 6] 23/22 6/1*
[ 4] 8/7 6/1*
[ 1] 23/22 8/3
[ 1] 23/18 7/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 23/18 8/7

I have to be honest, I didn’t see the correct move here (23-18, 6-5). I just played (23-18, 8-7).

My attitude was that I’m down 13 after my play and not introducing any additional blots in the mix that don’t need to be.

However, I’m a big favorite to be hit and sent further back in the race and Black’s priming capability is much more advanced than mine.

If I slot 6-5 then I give myself a better chance of winning at little additional gammon risk. Since fours are duplicated, if he doesn’t roll a four I’ll have a chance to roll a three or ace and make the prime and even if he does roll a four I can roll 1-1 or 3-3 from the bar to counter his hit.

It’s a case of, you don’t have much to lose by slotting and potentially a lot to gain if it works.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 155
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----ECBa--bBb--cAbbbB---:0:0:-1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2017-11-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 164
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---bEb--d-cAb---A:0:0:1:62:3:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 8/2*eq: -0.627
Player:
Opponent:
35.73% (G:8.28% B:0.47%)
64.27% (G:23.90% B:1.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.640...-0.614) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/7eq: -0.706 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
33.62% (G:7.36% B:0.74%)
66.38% (G:26.18% B:1.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.725...-0.688) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] b/23 8/2*
[ 6] b/23 13/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 8/2*

After we enter with Bar/23, we have the choice between 13/7 and 8/2*.

13/7 let’s Neil hit with any 5 or point on us with combinations of 1, 3 and 6 as well as 44. This looks like a very bad situation.

8/2* takes away half of Neil’s roll. Now if he also hits us on his 5 point, at least he is not making a point at the same time. Therefore, we will have a return shot.

I would play 8/2* over the board, being aware that at this score Neil probably does not have a double. He probably would have a double for money (with or without Jacoby) but not here.


Steve Sax recommends: b/23 8/2*

Here you have only two sixes to play after coming in with the forced deuce.

If you play (13-7) you leave give Black his whole roll to play and give him 1’s, 3’s, 5’s and 6’s to hit you. If you make that play, Black also has ten numbers to make his five-point accomplishing two strong goals.

If you hit with six (8-2*) you will only be pointed on with double three’s and make him dance with (6-6).

It’s true that you really don’t want to put a checker on your two-point, but the tactical hit also gives you a greater chance of making the advanced anchor so in this case, functionality takes place over apparent beauty.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaA---E-B---bEb--d-cAb-A--:0:0:-1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:64.32% (G:23.92% B:1.44%)64.34% (G:24.76% B:1.77%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:35.68% (G:8.21% B:0.38%)35.66% (G:8.42% B:0.71%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.489+1.025
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.622±0.013 (+0.609..+0.635)
     Double/Take:+0.526 (-0.095)±0.019 (+0.507..+0.546)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.378)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 59 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I certainly have an advantage here and some market losers, but often will end up looking at my opponent’s anchor on my 5 point, which will make me unhappy that I cubed. I think this is probably a double for money, but the position doesn’t scream “Must Double” to me.

At this score, I need to be more concerned about getting redoubled, especially if this turns around and I am facing some gammon losing chances, which is always possible with two checkers back. With the USBGF Members needing 8 points exactly, I would have to pass a 4 cube that has decent gammon chances.

I’ll play it cautiously at this score and take a roll in hopes of some further improvement.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaA---E-B---bEb--d-cAb-A--:0:0:-1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23* 23/18eq: +0.564
Player:
Opponent:
63.24% (G:20.60% B:1.18%)
36.76% (G:7.95% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.552...+0.577) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23* 8/3eq: +0.432 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
60.12% (G:21.99% B:1.54%)
39.88% (G:9.29% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.417...+0.447) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23*/18.

This is automatic as I hit b/23*, and then hopping 23/18 is the only reasonable 5 to play.



USBGF Members: 63 b/22 13/7*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 155
             
11 point match
              pip: 170
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----EAB---bDb--d-cAbAA--:0:0:-1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 6/5*eq: +0.488
Player:
Opponent:
61.60% (G:21.20% B:1.43%)
38.40% (G:9.26% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.475...+0.501) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 8/3*eq: +0.374 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
59.06% (G:21.72% B:1.69%)
40.94% (G:10.25% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.361...+0.387) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 6/5*.

This is also automatic as I enter bar/20 and fight for both 5 points with 6/5*. It is important to be aggressive in the early game and especially when having the stronger board.



USBGF Members: 63 b/22 13/7


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 166
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aEBB---bCb--d-babBA--:0:0:-1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout120/15 8/5eq: +0.717
Player:
Opponent:
67.39% (G:19.60% B:1.07%)
32.61% (G:6.96% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.704...+0.730) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.Rollout111/6 8/5eq: +0.536 (-0.181)
Player:
Opponent:
63.03% (G:20.71% B:1.31%)
36.97% (G:9.11% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.521...+0.551) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/15 8/5.

A fine roll for me as 8/5 closes my 5 point and gives me a good advantage. Of course I don’t want to break any points, and I am up 25 pips so I just play out with my back checker 20/15.



USBGF Members: 32 13/10*/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 151
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----EBC---bBb--c-bbbBA--:0:0:-1:63:3:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: +0.676
Player:
Opponent:
66.89% (G:19.45% B:1.09%)
33.11% (G:7.61% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.663...+0.689) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 8/2*eq: +0.556 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
63.59% (G:20.82% B:1.15%)
36.41% (G:9.22% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.543...+0.569) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16.

Once again, I don’t want to move any other checkers, so I hop into the outfield with b/16. Maybe I’d hit loose if they had a bunch of other loose blots or had some serious threats, but that isn’t the case here, and their mid point is stripped.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EBCa--bBb--c-bbbBA--:0:0:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:43:3:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.079
Player:
Opponent:
46.71% (G:13.52% B:0.59%)
53.29% (G:15.88% B:1.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.090...-0.067) - [74.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
2.playedRollout124/21 24/20eq: -0.085 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
47.11% (G:10.82% B:0.44%)
52.89% (G:14.66% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.096...-0.075) - [18.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 09 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 13/10eq: -0.091 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
46.82% (G:11.87% B:0.45%)
53.18% (G:15.20% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.104...-0.079) - [4.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
4.Rollout124/21 13/9eq: -0.095 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
46.61% (G:12.77% B:0.60%)
53.39% (G:15.95% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.108...-0.082) - [1.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
5.Rollout124/21 6/2*eq: -0.106 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
46.64% (G:11.72% B:0.51%)
53.36% (G:14.94% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.118...-0.093) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 24/21 24/20 [coin flip!]
[11] 24/20 13/10
[ 7] 24/21 13/9
[ 6] 24/21 6/2*
[ 3] 13/10 13/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10 13/9

The response here at a normal match score is 24/20 24/21. At 8 away 6 away you could still play that or 13/9 13/10 or 24/21 13/9. If this was a 2 team consulting match then I would be happy with any one of those 3 moves. Over the board I would make the aggressive 13/9 13/10.

At 8 away 6 away for a 2 cube our Gammon Value is 0.6 and our opponent’s live cube take point is 22.5, both of which mean we should be more aggressive. If we double at this score, Neil will be cautious about redoubling to 4 as we can take and redouble to 8 putting the match on the line. This is what we want to do against a better player. We want to shorten the match and get lucky. The longer the match, the more the better player is favored.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-eAA----:0:0:-1:22:3:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/11(2) 6/4*(2)eq: +0.394
Player:
Opponent:
59.42% (G:18.71% B:0.94%)
40.58% (G:9.13% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.381...+0.406) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout123/21 8/4* 6/4eq: +0.306 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
57.54% (G:17.31% B:0.90%)
42.46% (G:9.07% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.293...+0.319) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86124846
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11(2) 6/4*(2).

This nice roll is played like it usually is in the early game. Making the 11 and 6 points gives me a nice advantage.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 164
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---bEb--d-cAb---A:0:0:1:62:3:5:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-AC-D---bC-b-bde----B-:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:77.61% (G:11.73% B:0.54%)78.36% (G:11.51% B:0.50%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:22.39% (G:2.73% B:0.16%)21.64% (G:2.77% B:0.19%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.651+1.355
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.938 (-0.062)±0.005 (+0.933..+0.944)
     Double/Take:+1.175 (+0.175)±0.010 (+1.165..+1.185)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82450749
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] Pass
[ 3] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Pass

Let’s look at the Value Equation from Neil’s point of view

Value Equation = Prime + Blitz + Race + Contact

Prime – Neil has good priming potential: 5

Blitz – if we split then Neil can attack: 3

Race – 28 pips before the roll: 3

Contact – does favour us but only slightly: minus 0.5

Value Equation = 5 + 3 + 3 – 0.5 = 10.5

So at a normal match score I would pass. Here at 8 away 7 away our dead cube take point is 26% and our live cube take point is 23% so I pass.


Neil wins one point, and leads the match 6-away/8-away.



Neil Kazaross: 51 24/23 13/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:43:3:5:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 154
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--D-C---bD-b-bde----B-:0:0:1:51:3:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout113/8 6/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.79% (G:2.74% B:0.11%)
78.21% (G:11.42% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [33.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.Rollout113/7eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.56% (G:2.77% B:0.17%)
78.44% (G:11.21% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [33.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 13/8eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.51% (G:3.06% B:0.12%)
78.49% (G:18.90% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [33.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 82450749
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 13/8 6/5
[13] 24/23 13/8
[ 4] 13/7
[ 1] 24/23 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 6/5

We are way behind in the race, so I would not split here 24/23. Instead I want to start improving my board so 6/5 is called for.

If I play 6/5 then 13/8 bringing another checker into the zone is the other half of this roll.


Steve Sax:

If I owned the cube as White I wouldn’t split since I’m down more than 30 pips and I have Black out-boarded. I would continue to try to develop and let Black try to bring his position home without leaving a shot.

Since the cube is in the middle, I must consider that Neil (Black) will double here. If I can come up with a take then I play as I suggest in the last paragraph and develop my position (13-8, 6-5) is my play.

If I think it’s going to be a double and a pass, I simply make a move that will not allow him to play on for the gammon, so once again, I don’t split.

That is for you, the OLMer’s to decide which is the case regarding the nexus between the cube position and the checker move.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-AC-D---bC-b-bde----B-:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2017-11-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--DbB---bE---bde----B-:0:0:1:41:3:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout124/20 6/5eq: -0.534
Player:
Opponent:
36.61% (G:8.08% B:0.42%)
63.39% (G:19.81% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.545...-0.522) - [99.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: -0.554 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
35.78% (G:7.38% B:0.31%)
64.22% (G:17.99% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.564...-0.544) - [0.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
3.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: -0.565 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
35.49% (G:8.48% B:0.35%)
64.51% (G:17.60% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.575...-0.554) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
4.playedRollout113/8eq: -0.616 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
33.81% (G:7.32% B:0.28%)
66.19% (G:16.30% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.628...-0.604) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
5.Rollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.620 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
34.58% (G:8.01% B:0.33%)
65.42% (G:20.35% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.630...-0.609) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
6.Rollout18/4 6/5eq: -0.643 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
33.74% (G:7.90% B:0.33%)
66.26% (G:18.25% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.654...-0.631) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
7.Rollout124/23 6/2eq: -0.670 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:
33.53% (G:7.11% B:0.36%)
66.47% (G:21.40% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.680...-0.661) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82450749
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 13/8
[12] 24/20 6/5
[ 5] 24/23 13/9
[ 4] 24/23 24/20
[ 3] 13/9 6/5
[ 1] 24/23 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20 6/5

This week I was giving a lesson on splitting, and one of the aspects of splitting when your opponent has more than 10 checkers in the zone. The conventional wisdom is do not split when your opponent has 10 or more checkers in the zone. It is “Splitting into the jaws of Death” as one of my friends puts it.

However, when your opponent has an advanced anchor you either need to get one too (by splitting) or you need to run. Here running when this far behind is not a good idea.

I believe there are 4 game plans:

  1. Priming
  2. Attacking
  3. Racing
  4. Anchoring which is also called Contact or Ambush

With Neil anchored on our 7 point, we are not priming, we are not anchoring and we are definitely not racing. Therefore we need to anchor. So 24/20.

So do we play 24/23 or 6/5 with the one? 24/23 moves more into harm’s way but puts pressure on Neil’s stripped 8 point. 6/5 starts to improve our board. At a normal match score I would play 6/5 but it is close, but at 8 away 7 away I would play 24/20 6/5.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 154
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--DbC---bD---bde----B-:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:65.82% (G:16.53% B:0.75%)65.98% (G:16.98% B:0.78%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:34.18% (G:6.92% B:0.25%)34.02% (G:7.12% B:0.27%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.423+0.864
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.608±0.010 (+0.597..+0.618)
     Double/Take:+0.532 (-0.076)±0.015 (+0.517..+0.547)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.392)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82450749
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I have a position that just doesn’t seem good enough to cube. While there are market losing sequences, very few seem crushing. There are also poor rolls for me so cubing here seems too early. I have a typical position that threatens to become a good cube. So I will wait for an improvement.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 154
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--DbC---bD---bde----B-:0:0:-1:44:3:4:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout118/10(2)eq: +0.996
Player:
Opponent:
77.19% (G:11.09% B:0.49%)
22.81% (G:2.80% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.993...+0.999) - [99.8%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout118/14(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.986 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
76.61% (G:11.54% B:0.54%)
23.39% (G:3.09% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.980...+0.992) - [0.2%]
Duration: 12 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82450749
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/10(2).

This joker puts me up 34 pips, so my plays should be all about getting my 15 checkers home so I can bearoff. I don’t need a prime, and I need flexibility and spares. So clearly the first two 4’s go from 18/14. Now since making inner points looks to be awkward, I simply have to decide the best way to bring two more checkers into my outer board. So I made both moves and looked at the resulting position and going from 14/10 looks better to me. It is easier to clear the 13 pt than the 14 point and after making the 10 point, rolls like 62 and 51 play lots better. 41 plays does play worse, but maybe I can play it without leaving a direct shot. I also think 18/10(2) is the best DMP play and that is important noting that I will be cubing almost no matter what after this play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 154
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--D-C---bD-b-bde----B-:0:0:1:51:3:4:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-11-02

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dE---bbe----B-:0:0:1:53:3:4:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.135
Player:
Opponent:
45.39% (G:13.50% B:0.63%)
54.61% (G:16.22% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.146...-0.124) - [99.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/8eq: -0.154 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
45.53% (G:11.48% B:0.50%)
54.47% (G:16.26% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.166...-0.143) - [0.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
3.Rollout124/16eq: -0.209 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
44.64% (G:10.64% B:0.63%)
55.36% (G:17.86% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.220...-0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
4.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.227 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
43.30% (G:12.23% B:0.68%)
56.70% (G:17.07% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.240...-0.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
5.Rollout113/5eq: -0.258 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:
42.92% (G:11.68% B:0.61%)
57.08% (G:17.01% B:1.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.271...-0.245) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91922680
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 8/3 6/3
[ 1] 13/5
[ 1] 24/21 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/3

At Gammon Save, splitting is 0.003 behind making the 3 point. At Gammon Save I may split then get the lecture from my opponent after the match about how bad my move was. At that score, it is ok but it is the exception. So why try the split? Years ago a player turned up at a local tournament and made some weird openings and a lot of players made incorrect replies as they were not use to seeing those openings. Fortunately I had studied the replies to openings like 41: 24/20 6/5. It is good to memorise replies, but better to understand (as well) why the replies are correct.

At 8 away 7 away, we should just make the 3 point.


Steve Sax recommends: 8/3 6/3

In general if I can do something constructive on a move I’ll chose that over a play that “prepares” to do something constructive.

And this case is no different. After Black makes his bar-point with (6-1) White rolls a (5-3).

His two basic choices are to make his three-point or split his back checkers (24-21) and play 13-8 with the five.

The advantages of the split play is that Black is stripped on his seven and eight-points and even if Black is able to point on White, he will leave varying numbers of fly shots depending on which number he points with.

And while it’s true that on a good percentage of occasions White will be able to gain the advanced anchor, I like the sure thing of making the inner board point.

If nothing else, by making the inside point it allows White to split on his following roll with more confidence as he would most likely have the edge in boardage.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-B--D-B---dE---bbe----B-:0:0:-1:66:3:4:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout124/18(2) 13/7(2)eq: +0.510
Player:
Opponent:
63.37% (G:16.74% B:0.60%)
36.63% (G:7.78% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.499...+0.521) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
2.Rollout124/18(2) 8/2(2)eq: +0.370 (-0.140)
Player:
Opponent:
59.42% (G:17.76% B:0.78%)
40.58% (G:10.42% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.359...+0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91922680
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/18(2) 13/7(2).

These nice boxes are played in the standard way 24/18(2) 13/7(2) giving me a nice early advantage.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--DbB---bE---bde----B-:0:0:1:41:3:4:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-CBCC-------b--bbdCbc---:0:0:-1:00:3:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:77.72% (G:1.68% B:0.02%)77.83% (G:1.56% B:0.03%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:22.28% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)22.17% (G:0.74% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.565+1.201
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.928 (-0.072)±0.005 (+0.923..+0.933)
     Double/Take:+1.068 (+0.068)±0.007 (+1.060..+1.075)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53895590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 30 minutes 48 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Pass
[ 9] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Pass

We are down 18 pips in the race. While Neil having a point to clear 6 away from our anchor is good for us, he now has 54, 53 and 43 as additional clearing rolls.

He has lots of spares so has plenty of time and lots of turns to roll one of those numbers or any double except 66. So that’s 11 rolls for each turn he has, and that is too much. I pass.


Steve Sax recommends: Pass

At first I thought it was a double and a clear pass. Then I looked at the race and saw that Black was only up 18 pips. You might say, “only!”.

However, if in a straight race you could take at about 12 pips, isn’t all that extra potential contact worth an extra six pips?

In the end I decided no for a couple of reasons.

First, Black has three landing spots to safely play the two checkers on his 11-point. That means that Black has 11/36 numbers to drastically minimize White’s hitting chances.

He will probably be able to safety his checkers without leaving a shot about 80% of the time (just an educated guess) and when he does he’ll be about 85% to win giving Black an immediate 68% wins.

Among the 20% of the time for sake of argument let’s say White gets a direct six shot and wins about half of those games giving Black another 10% wins equating to about 78% wins for Black and 22% for White.

If White had perfect efficiency with the cube that 22% might be enough to take the cube, but White can’t really get an efficient re-cube on most occasions to that 22% will keep White from being able to correctly take the cube.

The second point regarding White’s ability to take the cube is the fact that his home board checkers aren’t placed ideally as he currently has a gap on his deuce-point and a blot on his ace-point.

While it’s true that most often he’ll be able to straighten that mess out by the time Black might leave a shot four or five rolls down the road, he won’t always be able to have a perfect closed board waiting for Black’s exposed checker.

Additionally, White won’t always get a six shot when he does get a shot. Sometimes it will be a shot which leaves fewer hitting opportunities for White.

In the final analysis, I pass this cube, but if the race had been only 15 pips, I would have taken.


Neil Kazaross wins one point and leads 7-away/8-away.



Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dE---bbe----B-:0:0:1:53:3:4:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 124
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBDAbA--b----b-dCbc---:0:0:1:43:3:3:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout19/2eq: -0.242
Player:
Opponent:
43.38% (G:6.96% B:0.16%)
56.62% (G:3.56% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.246...-0.239) - [99.3%]
Duration: 7 hours 06 minutes
2.playedRollout19/5 6/3eq: -0.248 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
43.14% (G:6.68% B:0.16%)
56.86% (G:3.65% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.252...-0.245) - [0.7%]
Duration: 6 hours 40 minutes
3.Rollout29/5 7/4eq: -0.283 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
42.18% (G:6.40% B:0.16%)
57.82% (G:3.72% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.291...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
4.Rollout29/6 7/3eq: -0.312 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
41.44% (G:5.92% B:0.15%)
58.56% (G:3.87% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.319...-0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
5.Rollout29/5 4/1eq: -0.323 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
41.12% (G:5.11% B:0.08%)
58.88% (G:4.22% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.331...-0.316) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
6.Rollout220/16 9/6eq: -0.345 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
40.05% (G:7.59% B:0.23%)
59.95% (G:5.21% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.353...-0.337) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53895590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53895590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 9/5 6/3
[14] 9/2
[ 4] 9/5 7/4
[ 1] 20/16 9/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/5 6/3

If I was unlikely to get a shot next turn, I would play 9/2, but here it is possible that I will get a shot and it could be an indirect shot, so I will avoid leaving an inner board blot and play 9/5 6/3. This aims 4 builders at the 2 point or 1 point.



Neil Kazaross: 66 17/11(2) 13/7(2)
USBGF Members: 66 7/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-CBCC-------b--bbdCbc---:0:0:-1:00:3:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2017-10-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 102
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBDAaA--b----b-dBbca-A:0:0:1:32:3:3:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/23* 23/20eq: +0.707
Player:
Opponent:
65.51% (G:31.42% B:0.63%)
34.49% (G:6.26% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.699...+0.715) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23* 7/4eq: +0.669 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
64.22% (G:33.43% B:0.79%)
35.78% (G:7.35% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.658...+0.679) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/23* 6/3eq: +0.607 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
62.79% (G:32.52% B:0.83%)
37.21% (G:9.20% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.597...+0.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 42 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/23* 9/6eq: +0.517 (-0.190)
Player:
Opponent:
58.35% (G:28.08% B:0.75%)
41.65% (G:8.38% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.510...+0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 53895590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/23*/20
[ 8] b/23* 7/4
[ 3] b/23* 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23*/20

After hitting with Bar/23* you then have the 3 to play.

My gut instinct was to play 23/20. 9/6 seemed like a nothing play. 7/4 is reasonable but removes the slot for the 7 point. The other advantage of 23/20 is it leaves you a 1 to hit 9/8* while duplicating 1’s for your opponent. Any move where you do not play 23/20 means it could become awkward to escape the 23 point checker.

So this is a case where the obvious move is correct and the only danger is over thinking it. Bar/23*/20.



Neil Kazaross: 62 b/17


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 124
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBDAbA--b----b-dCbc---:0:0:1:43:3:3:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BABDaBB--b----b-dBbca--:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:56.76% (G:13.03% B:0.28%)56.98% (G:13.23% B:0.37%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:43.24% (G:4.94% B:0.19%)43.02% (G:4.89% B:0.19%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.227+0.498
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.274±0.006 (+0.268..+0.281)
     Double/Take:+0.141 (-0.134)±0.011 (+0.130..+0.152)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.726)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] No Double
[ 4] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

We have 16 good rolls that hit and cover – 22 11, 52, 51, 42, 41, 32, 31, 21. But some of them while good do leave a return shots from the bar. That’s 16 good rolls where we will be hit some of the time, so let’s call it equivalent to 14 good rolls.

Bad rolls are 65, 64, 63, 54, 53, 43 or 12 rolls.

14 – 12 = 2 good rolls net. How are we doing on the other rolls? Well 62 would be played 9/7* 9/3 leaving any 4 plus 22 and 31 as return shots. So according to O’Hagan’s law we do not have enough to double.

When I play a better player, I want to apply pressure so it is tempting to double and maybe over the board I would but this is No Double.



USBGF Members: 42 9/7* 8/4
Neil Kazaross: 62 b/17*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 102
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBDAaA--b----b-dBbca-A:0:0:1:23:3:3:0:11:10
to play 23

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AaBD-DB--b----b-dBbca--:0:0:1:54:3:3:0:11:10
to play 54

1.xgRollout19/4* 8/4eq: +0.343
Player:
Opponent:
57.86% (G:16.27% B:0.44%)
42.14% (G:10.40% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.335...+0.351) - [100.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 47 seconds
2.playedRollout18/3 8/4*eq: +0.318 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
56.52% (G:15.72% B:0.42%)
43.48% (G:8.57% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.310...+0.325) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 8/4* 8/3
[20] 9/4* 8/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/4* 8/4

If we attack, we will end up with:

  • an equal board to Neil,
  • with an advanced anchor,
  • with more checkers back,
  • with Neil having an inner board blot,
  • still slightly behind in the race.

All the above are Magriel’s Safe vs Bold guide. So I will be hitting and making a point, so which point? If in doubt, I want to make a pure board, i.e. the points made in order. Therefore I play 9/4* 8/4. This also gives me good 3’s which are blocked on the other side of the board. Also, I like to have a good 6.


Steve Sax recommends: 8/4* 8/3

White is down in the race and is out-boarded. However White can attempt to equalize the position by hitting and making a new point.

The question is, what new point?

Should he make the three-point or the four-point? To determine which point White should make requires some analysis of gains versus drawbacks.

Making the four-point leaves two blots and a three shot. Black can hit back with 14 numbers, five of which hit and cover (1-1, 3-1, 4-1) and 3-6 which hits two blots.

Playing two checkers off the eight-point (hitting and making the three-point also leaves 14 shots, four of which hit and cover (2-2, 4-4 and 4-1) with 4-6 hitting and escaping the prime.

If you knew you were going to be missed you would undoubtedly make the four-point because it creates a more contiguous prime. And the fact that you will be missed 22 times makes the decision to make the four-point quite compelling.

Additionally, if Black comes in on the ace or deuce-point, White is more equipped to block Black in as they will have three active builders to make the three-point and a four prime.

Regarding making the three-point and hitting loose on the four-point, White does have a broken four-point blockade if Black hits on White’s four-point. In the case of the previous play, White only has a three-prime so it might be easier for Black to escape if he hits on White’s three-point.

A drawback of making the three-point is that if Black comes in on the 23-point, White’s eight-point is stripped so any subsequent attempt to prime or attack is mitigated by the slight weakness of the position.

When I analyze these positions I always (well usually) make my decision on which move to make before conducting a rollout.

In this case, I slightly liked making the three-point and hitting loose on the four-point. It turns out I and which ever OLMr’s like this play are slightly wrong regarding the correct choice.

Perhaps what makes the difference is the fact that White has an advanced anchor in Black’s board. In those cases, it is usually okay for the attacking side to take a few more chances than they might normally if they have the bastion of an advanced anchor to fall back upon.



Neil Kazaross: 61 b/18


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BABDaBB--b----b-dBbca--:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 135
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-BD-DB-Ab----c-dBbba--:0:0:1:62:3:3:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout111/3*eq: -0.044
Player:
Opponent:
47.88% (G:9.91% B:0.33%)
52.12% (G:8.69% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.054...-0.035) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
2.Rollout111/5 6/4eq: -0.072 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
47.41% (G:9.17% B:0.26%)
52.59% (G:8.45% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.082...-0.063) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
3.Rollout111/9 8/2eq: -0.074 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
47.00% (G:8.10% B:0.23%)
53.00% (G:6.44% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.082...-0.065) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
4.Rollout111/5 8/6eq: -0.111 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
45.89% (G:7.69% B:0.26%)
54.11% (G:5.78% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.120...-0.102) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 11/3*
[ 5] 11/5 8/6
[ 3] 11/9 8/2
[ 1] 11/5 6/4
[ 1] 20/18 11/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/3*

I use and teach Magriel’s Safe vs Bold criteria.

  • Here Neil has the better board, indicating we should play safe.
  • We have an advanced anchor, whereas Neil does not – indicating we should play boldly.
  • We have more checkers back – indicating we should play boldly.
  • Neil has an inner board blot – indicating we should play boldly.
  • We are behind in the race – indicating we should play boldly.

So we should just play boldly by hitting with 11/3*.

If there was a really good alternative to playing boldly, I would consider it, but there is not.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 115
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--A-BD-DB--b----c-dBbba--:0:0:-1:54:3:3:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 8/3eq: -0.263
Player:
Opponent:
44.22% (G:7.90% B:0.27%)
55.78% (G:13.44% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.271...-0.255) - [100.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 6/1eq: -0.307 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
42.96% (G:7.83% B:0.18%)
57.04% (G:15.06% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.315...-0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 56 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: -0.372 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
41.16% (G:7.33% B:0.25%)
58.84% (G:16.08% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.380...-0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 8/3.

This play is basically forced, since I will likely be attacked so I don’t want to expose any new blots. In addition, 8/3 weakens my position less than the other 5’s.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AaBD-DB--b----b-dBbca--:0:0:1:54:3:3:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 146
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-DB--cB---c-dBb-a--:0:0:1:32:3:3:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/11 13/10eq: +0.212
Player:
Opponent:
54.71% (G:11.22% B:0.38%)
45.29% (G:7.77% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.208...+0.216) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout16/1eq: +0.196 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
54.18% (G:11.58% B:0.32%)
45.82% (G:8.50% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.191...+0.200) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout28/5 6/4eq: +0.099 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
52.77% (G:12.36% B:0.48%)
47.23% (G:12.50% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.087...+0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/11 13/10
[12] 6/1
[ 3] 8/5 6/4
[ 1] 20/15


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 13/10

As the race is even after the roll, any play that breaks the 20 point anchor can be dismissed.

Next we want to keep our checkers in front of the Neil’s anchor as effectively we are behind in the race. Therefore we can dismiss 6/1.

This leaves 13/11 13/10. Although this breaks the mid-point, it creates builders for the 7, 5 or 4 points. Looking at this in terms of Magriel’s safe vs bold criteria, we have an advanced anchor and Neil has an inner board blot. Those two criteria mean we should make a bold move but not super bold (like 8/5 6/4) as Neil has the stronger board.

So I will go with 13/11 13/10.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 141
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-DBAAc----c-dBb-a--:0:0:-1:54:3:3:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout122/13eq: -0.251
Player:
Opponent:
45.13% (G:5.84% B:0.27%)
54.87% (G:13.75% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.262...-0.241) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 6/2eq: -0.399 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
40.57% (G:6.96% B:0.24%)
59.43% (G:12.25% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.408...-0.389) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 6/2eq: -0.401 (-0.150)
Player:
Opponent:
40.30% (G:6.41% B:0.20%)
59.70% (G:11.27% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.411...-0.391) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
4.Rollout113/4eq: -0.453 (-0.202)
Player:
Opponent:
39.07% (G:6.80% B:0.19%)
60.93% (G:12.11% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.463...-0.443) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/13.

Let’s look at the course of this game if I sit on my anchor and work on my board. Most likely the USBGF Members will make at least two of three key new points over the next couple of turns, and I will then be stuck on that anchor and looking at a cube while my position deteriorates around their anchor on my 5 point. This and my 9 pip lead point towards running a checker, but the problem is that my remaining checker will often be attacked before it can get away. It will face 13 checkers in the attack zone but only 11 are aimed directly at it. Noting the 1 point board and clearly worse timing and anchor to play positionally, I really have to run and risk the pending attack.



USBGF Members: 51 10/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 55 13/3(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 135
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-BD-DB-Ab----c-dBbba--:0:0:1:62:3:3:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-23

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-D---cDa--d-c-b--B-:0:0:1:44:3:3:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout124/20(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.268
Player:
Opponent:
56.36% (G:10.45% B:0.33%)
43.64% (G:7.32% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.258...+0.279) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout124/20(2) 8/4(2)eq: +0.154 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
53.48% (G:10.59% B:0.30%)
46.52% (G:7.27% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.144...+0.164) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
3.Rollout124/16(2)eq: +0.139 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:
53.69% (G:5.96% B:0.22%)
46.31% (G:7.52% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.129...+0.150) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/20(2) 13/9(2)
[10] 24/20(2) 8/4(2)
[ 1] 24/16(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20(2) 13/9(2)

Making the 20 point 24/20(2) with the first two 4’s ruins Neil’s Priming and Attacking chances, so that has to be correct.

The only other choice is do we play 8/4(2) making another inner board point or 13/9(2).

I always try to give myself good 6’s and give my opponent bad 6’s. Here 13/9(2) means that Neil’s 6’s will be awkward.

With 61 he would have to play 13/7 8/7 and leave a shot,

with 62 he would have to play 13/11 8/2 which leaves a deep inner board blot,

with 63 he would have to play 11/2 which leaves a deep inner board blot,

with 64 he would have to play 13/7 11/7 a good roll but he is only winning about 44% of the time,

with 65 he would have to play 11/6 8/2 which leaves a deep inner board blot,

with 66 he would have to play 13/1 8/2(2) which leaves a deep inner board blot.

So 24/20(2) 13/9(2) for me.


Steve Sax recommends: 24/20(2) 13/9(2)

When I am preparing to play any number (especially doubles) I look at the overall picture and attempt to assess the goals I want to achieve.

Then as I move the checkers, I attempt to achieve the highest goal first, followed by the second goal and so on until my move is completed.

Well as usual, my goals are to escape, hit or make new points. I can’t hit, so I have to find constructive moves among escaping and point making (blocking in this case) goals.

The first thing that comes to mind is making the 20-point. The reason is that it not only accomplishes one goal of making the advanced anchor, but it denies your opponent to accomplish one of his goals.

The net effect is that you are a +1 in goals achieved when you neutralize his ability to block you in.

After making the 20-point, White has two more fours to play. He can actually abandon the 20-point immediately after making it and run all the way to the 16-point.

It’s not a terrible idea as he’s up six in the race and reduces Black’s blocking ability to a certain extent.

However, I’m going to give up on that idea, because even if Black makes the 11-point, White still has a decent game by making a more constructive move on his side of the board.

That bring the choices down to making the nine-point or making his four-point.

Which one is more constructive and which one has better opportunities to continue to be constructive and make additional blocking points on subsequent rolls?

If you choose to make the four-point, you can make additional blocking points with (1-1, 3-3, 4-4 or 6-6). I would also add (2-2) but that would be better used to run off the 20-point to the 16-point.

I however you make the nine-point, on your next roll, you can make an additional blocking point with (1-1, 3-1, 3-3, 4-2, 2-2, 6-1, 4-4 and 6-6).

And some of these numbers are even better than the numbers in the previous series, because they accomplish more than one goal in a single move.

Double ones makes two blocking points and double two’s makes a blocking point and escapes to the 20-point.

In addition to that, by making the nine-point, you block double sixes which could easily lose you the game should Black roll it.

Remember that the purpose for making checker plays is to simultaneously accomplish goals and deny your opponent to achieve his own goals. So the effect for a good move gives you the best chance to have a plus net goals achieved per move.

And in this case, I believe making the 20-point and the nine-point best achieves this effect.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 146
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-DB--cBa--d-cBb----:0:0:-1:65:3:3:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout111/6 8/2eq: -0.335
Player:
Opponent:
41.83% (G:7.20% B:0.24%)
58.17% (G:10.68% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.340...-0.331) - [97.8%]
Duration: 11 hours 46 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 11/6eq: -0.342 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
41.51% (G:7.96% B:0.26%)
58.49% (G:10.69% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.346...-0.337) - [2.2%]
Duration: 11 hours 38 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/6 8/2.

With one great shot my advantage is gone and now I am an underdog, and this 65 doesn’t help me. Had the readers not made their 9 point, I could make my 11 point with this 65. But as it stands I must play 11/6 and then find a 6.

13/7 is interesting but strips the mid so that only an ace can cover my slot conveniently. I’ll go with 8/2 instead, remaining more flexible.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 146
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-DB--cB---c-dBb-a--:0:0:1:32:3:3:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-22

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a--E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:41:3:3:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout113/8eq: -0.197
Player:
Opponent:
45.78% (G:11.62% B:0.45%)
54.22% (G:15.05% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.202...-0.192) - [85.1%]
Duration: 15 hours 11 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: -0.201 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
45.70% (G:10.77% B:0.46%)
54.30% (G:14.93% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.206...-0.196) - [14.9%]
Duration: 15 hours 28 minutes
3.Rollout28/3*eq: -0.232 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
45.01% (G:12.30% B:0.57%)
54.99% (G:16.85% B:1.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.245...-0.219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
4.Rollout224/23 13/9eq: -0.252 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
44.71% (G:11.67% B:0.55%)
55.29% (G:16.90% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.264...-0.240) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 13/8
[12] 24/23 24/20
[ 5] 24/23 13/9
[ 1] 8/3*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8

I have the rollout for 52S-41 without Jacoby, as money games in New Zealand are played without Jacoby.

The correct move is 13/8 thought there is nothing wrong with 24/23 24/20, it is only behind by 0.007 If I was playing a consulting match, I would not argue it either way. Personally I would just play 13/8. This brings another checker into the zone which makes our doubles much better. It also unstacks the 13 point, which it is good to do in the early game.

So 13/8 for me at this even match score.


Steve Sax recommends: 24/23 24/20

It looks like it comes down to two plays divergent in strategy.

One play is the simple (13-8) and the other one is the more open play of (24-23, 24-20).

I rule out (8-3*) because the risk isn’t worth the reward. You get to put Black on the bar, but you strip your eight point and are starting a somewhat deep point.

And that play only succeeds when White is missed (17/36) and he covers with a three or ten (17/36) or just under 25%. I don’t count covers using the eight point because it breaks an existing point in doing so.

The first play that comes to mind for me is (13-8). Although the play doesn’t develop much, it at least brings a second active builder to the eight-point which could come in handy if White rolls a “working” double such as (1-1, 3-3, 4-4 or 5-5). Those numbers are especially useful after adding the extra active builder because you don’t have to break the eight-point to make a new point.

The disadvantage for playing (13-8) is that it allows Black to develop on his side of the board by bringing builders down to his outfield which could result in White losing the priming battle.

The other candidate play is (24-23, 24-20). That play attempts to make an advanced anchor before Black has a chance to bring builders down from the mid-point.

While it’s true that Black does have some strong attacking numbers (1-1, 3-1, 3-3, 4-4) the overwhelming set of numbers will only allow Black to hit loose or not at all.

Looking at the numbers it’s extremely close and comes down to the style of play you’re comfortable with.

Personally I don’t like to talk about “style” when discussing backgammon strategy, if the play is legitimately close, play the type of game you’re more comfortable with.

That being said, if you’re more comfortable playing a contact game (the split play) then maybe you should work on your priming game. And the vice versa is true if you find the priming game easier to handle, do some studying on contact games which will occur with the major and minor split play.

Also on close moves like this, play to your opponent’s weaknesses. If he’s weak on priming games you should play (13-8) and if he’s weak on contact games………….well you get the point.

All things being equal, if you’re the superior player I guess the split play is better because weaker players don’t tend to handle hitting situations as well as they should unless the rolls are “naturals”.

In the final analysis I would make the split play against inferior opponents. So I guess I make the split play 😉.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a--E-D---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:-1:22:3:3:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout124/22 13/11 6/4(2)eq: +0.452
Player:
Opponent:
59.21% (G:18.79% B:0.84%)
40.79% (G:8.98% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.441...+0.463) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 8/4 6/4eq: +0.409 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
58.17% (G:18.67% B:0.86%)
41.83% (G:9.14% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.397...+0.420) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
3.Rollout113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.399 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
58.39% (G:18.66% B:1.08%)
41.61% (G:11.14% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.387...+0.412) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 13/11 6/4(2).

There’s no need for me to play too safely with this 22 so the first thing I do is to make my 4 point. Then I play 13/11 and look around for the final deuce. I can play 13/11 as I would on the opening roll, but here that strips my midpoint, but more importantly, my back checkers are split so making an anchor seems prudent. Now after 24/22, my opponents cannot blitz me and their 55 turns into a horror and will earn them the cube.

24/22 13/11 6/4(2) aims for an early cubing formation where my back checkers are safe and at least somewhat advanced not blocked and where I can hopefully make another improvement or two with my forward position and then offer a strong cube.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-D---cDa--d-c-b--B-:0:0:1:44:3:3:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 71
             
11 point match
              pip: 80
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCBBBB--------b--Bbeabab-:0:0:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:74.75% (G:0.41% B:0.00%)74.79% (G:0.38% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:25.25% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)25.21% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.495+0.975
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.752 (-0.104)±0.004 (+0.748..+0.756)
xg Double/Take:+0.857±0.006 (+0.851..+0.863)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.143)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] Pass
[18] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

These are the type of positions I hate to take but know I have to. I hate to take because I feel like the outcome will be decided by the dice rather than skill.

I know our dead cube take point is 25%. Yes, we will have cube access but not that much, but if we have a take based on the Dead cube then we will have a take based on the Live cube.

First I work out using Arthur Benjamin’s modified Kleinman count that I will win 19% of the time here in a straight race.

Neil has 11 numbers that effectively win outright on the next roll – 66, 55, 44, 22, 11, 65, 64 and 54.

Neil has 6 rolls that leave a shot 63, 62 and 61. Say I hit 1/3 of the time or the equivalent of 2 rolls, that’s another 5.6%.

Add 5.6 to 19 = 24.6 so we are very close to the Dead Cube Take Point. The position will repeat with the other 19 rolls so I will definitely make it to the Dead Cube Take Point. Therefore I have to take.

This is the process I would use over the board with the clock running. I would also look at my opponent. I would consider passing if I thought I was the better player but here I would obviously take.

Now we only get to recube if we hit (2 rolls) or if catch up in the race. If we use the Live Cube Take Point of 21.5% at 8 away 9 away then we definitely have to take.

So not happily but I do take.


Steve Sax recommends: Take

I agree Neil (Black) should double. He is up 9 pips in a 71-80 pip race. If there were no provisions for wastage, crossovers, gaps or potential gaps it would be a double and a take.

Black does have the advantage in crossovers and wastage but has some potential gaps brewing in his home board.

However, White has some shot equity. He has immediate shot equity in that, if Black rolls (6-1, 6-2 or 6-3) and White hits, White will win with the cube with a very small free roll for a gammon.

That immediate shot equity accounts for 74 games in 1296 or 5.7%. Also, if Black fails to safety and White runs with one piece, there is of course a chance Black will roll one of those same shot leaving numbers which accounts for approximately an additional one to two percent (just a guess).

So with about 7% shot equity, White only needs to come up with another 15-16% race equity to warrant a take and according to this simple comparison position it appears that White has about 18% race equity.

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 71

             
11 point match
              pip: 80
score: 3

is Player 1

XGID=-BBBBBC———Bb-cdbbaa-:0:0:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:82.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)82.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:17.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)17.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.643+1.277
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.904 (-0.096)±0.002 (+0.902..+0.906)
Double/Take:+1.168 (+0.168)±0.014 (+1.154..+1.183)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91978515
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

So adding the two percentages together White has 25% cubeless, and owning the cube it becomes a very easy take.


Neil wins one point and the match is tied 8-away/8-away.



Neil Kazaross: 52 24/22 13/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a--E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:41:3:3:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 82
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCBBB-A------d--Bbd-bab-:0:0:1:32:3:2:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/5 3/1eq: -0.420
Player:
Opponent:
35.42% (G:0.68% B:0.01%)
64.58% (G:0.55% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.427...-0.412) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout118/13eq: -0.450 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
35.14% (G:2.13% B:0.04%)
64.86% (G:1.84% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.457...-0.444) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 6/4eq: -0.452 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
34.69% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
65.31% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.460...-0.445) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 51 seconds
4.Rollout18/3eq: -0.459 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
34.25% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)
65.75% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.467...-0.452) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout16/1eq: -0.468 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
33.87% (G:0.36% B:0.01%)
66.13% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.475...-0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 28 seconds
6.Rollout18/6 4/1eq: -0.487 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
33.51% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
66.49% (G:0.74% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.494...-0.479) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 47 seconds
7.Rollout15/2 3/1eq: -0.487 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
33.17% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
66.83% (G:0.69% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.495...-0.479) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 12 seconds
8.Rollout18/5 4/2eq: -0.488 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
33.49% (G:0.36% B:0.01%)
66.51% (G:0.85% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.495...-0.480) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds
9.Rollout18/6 5/2eq: -0.492 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
33.24% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
66.76% (G:0.84% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.500...-0.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 38 seconds
10.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: -0.497 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
33.19% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
66.81% (G:0.68% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.504...-0.489) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 38 seconds
11.Rollout16/4 5/2eq: -0.505 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
32.94% (G:0.30% B:0.01%)
67.06% (G:0.92% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.513...-0.497) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 05 seconds
12.Rollout14/1 3/1eq: -0.523 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
32.31% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
67.69% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.531...-0.515) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/5 3/1
[ 3] 18/13
[ 1] 4/1 3/1
[ 1] 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 3/1

After the roll we will be behind in the race by 1 pip. It may look tempting to play 18/13 Duplicating 3’s to hit and cover but …

Neil has a 4.5 board, and even if we are missed we are still behind in the race.

We need to just make the safe play of 8/5 3/1 and see what happens next roll.


Steve Sax recommends: 8/5 3/1

Being down in the race by one pip isn’t inspiring me very much to run here and I’m not going to do it.

While there are some sequences where you benefit by running now they are overridden by the negative aspects of the “pre-emptive run”.

The drawbacks can be described by a simple term. “Negative free roll”.

That is when you can only lose by your move on certain rolls, but you can’t gain.

In this case by running White allows Black to hit and cover with 3-3 and 5-3 as well as hit and lift with 3-1.

While it’s true that 3-3 is a good number for Black in any case, it’s not nearly the virtual game ending joker that White would allow Black if he were to make a break for it.

The benefit for running now is that you can potentially avoid being forced to leave a shot with (6-1, 6-2 or 6-3) on the second roll if you had chosen to play safe on the first roll.

And if that shot did occur on the second roll, Black would then be a favorite to now have a five-point board which makes being hit later rather than sooner more damaging.

The balance between the times you get hit by running in comparison with the times you are hit later facing a five-point board isn’t too overwhelming.

Still, the waiting play is correct even if by only a small amount.

A quick examination showed that even moving White’s checker from the eight to the seven-point would then make the play a tossup between running or developing White’s board.



Neil Kazaross: 65 10/5 10/4
USBGF Members: 5/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 71
             
11 point match
              pip: 80
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BCBBBB--------b--Bbeabab-:0:0:-1:00:3:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2017-10-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 94
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCAA---b--b-bBbb-bab-:0:0:1:63:3:2:0:11:10
to play 63

1.Rollout18/2 6/3eq: -0.123
Player:
Opponent:
45.43% (G:2.46% B:0.05%)
54.57% (G:1.85% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.130...-0.116) - [54.7%]
Duration: 32 minutes 04 seconds
2.playedRollout17/1 6/3eq: -0.124 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
45.52% (G:2.84% B:0.06%)
54.48% (G:1.86% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.131...-0.117) - [44.5%]
Duration: 31 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout17/1 4/1eq: -0.132 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
45.28% (G:2.60% B:0.05%)
54.72% (G:1.57% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.139...-0.125) - [0.8%]
Duration: 28 minutes 56 seconds
4.Rollout18/5 7/1eq: -0.153 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
44.52% (G:3.90% B:0.08%)
55.48% (G:1.61% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.160...-0.146) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 40 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 7/1 6/3
[ 8] 7/1 4/1
[ 4] 8/2 6/3
[ 1] 8/5 7/1
[ 1] 8/2 7/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/1 6/3

I want to play 7/1 making the next point in my board. Yes I could get a shot this turn and could get hit because I played 7/1 but I am prepared to take that risk due to Neil’s inner board blot.

Next I have to ask myself ‘do I need to save a six?’ I think I do so would make the ugly play of 6/3. Neil could leave a shot here with 61 or 63, so I want to still have my anchor when he does.

I am not sure but 7/1 6/3 looks right to me.


Steve Sax recommends: 7/1 6/3

I would definitely slot the ace-point with the six and then decide on the three.

Black is stripped on three outfield points, but only leaves a shot with 6-1 on his next roll.

He may or may not make a fifth point in his board, but I don’t want to take a chance and be forced to play a six from my 18-point.

So it comes down to playing 6-3 or 4-1 with the three.

I favor slightly playing 6-3 as my next 6-1 or 6-2 don’t break my closed board.

Also, I can play any seven and keep my closed board (4-3 or 5-2) as well as any number smaller than that.

There is a possibility Black might leave a shot two rolls down the road and I want to have a closed board if possible.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 94
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCBBB-A---b--b-bBbb-bab-:0:0:-1:33:3:2:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.195
Player:
Opponent:
56.94% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
43.06% (G:1.10% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.188...+0.202) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout113/10(2) 5/2(2)eq: +0.126 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
54.26% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
45.74% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.118...+0.134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 33 seconds
3.Rollout113/10(2) 6/3 5/2eq: +0.112 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
53.64% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
46.36% (G:2.46% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.104...+0.119) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds
4.Rollout18/2(2)eq: +0.099 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
53.61% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
46.39% (G:2.77% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.092...+0.106) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 42 seconds
5.Rollout113/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.080 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
52.58% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
47.42% (G:0.80% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.074...+0.087) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10(2) 8/5(2).

This is routine, as I only have a couple options and don’t want to chop up my homeboard. After this roll I lead in the race by 6 pips which makes me a slight favorite in a straight race. A 4 pip lead would make things about even with my opponents on roll since the average roll is just a tad more than 8. Therefore, on average we’d see saw back and forth each side having a 4 point lead when the other is on roll.

So having a slight lead makes we want to clear towards home. If I don’t clear with 13/10(2), there’s no good option for these 3’s anyhow as I’d have to break my 8 point and leave two stripped and exposed outfield points pressured by my opponents anchor. Then I may be the one to blot!

After 13/10(2), the race is close so I don’t want to waste pips inside and I need to crossover so 8/5(2) is clear. I now have a slight advantage and a bit more than in just a straight race since they will usually run into some pip wasting or blotting issues before I do if they can’t soon get off their 18 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 82
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCBBB-A------d--Bbd-bab-:0:0:1:32:3:2:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 99
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBAB--Ab--b-bBbbaca--:0:0:1:65:3:2:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout111/6 8/2eq: -0.170
Player:
Opponent:
44.16% (G:2.43% B:0.06%)
55.84% (G:1.31% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.177...-0.162) - [89.4%]
Duration: 44 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout18/3 8/2eq: -0.176 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
43.94% (G:2.43% B:0.06%)
56.06% (G:1.27% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.183...-0.169) - [10.6%]
Duration: 43 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout111/5 7/2eq: -0.187 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
43.57% (G:2.22% B:0.05%)
56.43% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.194...-0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 11/6 8/2
[ 7] 11/5 7/2
[ 1] 8/2 7/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/6 8/2

The first thing to do is play 8/2 covering the two point and giving us a 5 point board. After the roll we will be ahead by 2 pips which is equal to being ever so slightly behind in the race.

Next, we want our spares on high points so I would simply play 11/6.


Steve Sax recommends: 11/6 8/2

Here White should cover the two-point with a six and play 11-6 with the five.

I like this play for three reasons.

1) You make a fifth point in your board.

2) You keep your bar-point slotted which might turn into a six-prime at the same time as you getting a shot and hitting Black.

3) You keep a spare checker on your six-point which could result in you keeping your six point (and a five-point board) in the case that Black subsequently leaves a shot bring his pieces home and White hitting him.

There isn’t a lot of equity gained in making the suggested move, but I can’t see an argument for making another play that refute my reasons.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 99
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCAA---b--b-bBbbaca--:0:0:-1:32:3:2:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout14/1 3/1eq: +0.077
Player:
Opponent:
53.06% (G:1.34% B:0.04%)
46.94% (G:2.63% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.070...+0.084) - [99.9%]
Duration: 42 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 5/2eq: +0.060 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
52.80% (G:1.75% B:0.05%)
47.20% (G:4.11% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.052...+0.068) - [0.1%]
Duration: 37 minutes 27 seconds
3.xgRollout15/2 3/1eq: +0.049 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
52.39% (G:1.43% B:0.03%)
47.61% (G:3.64% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.042...+0.056) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout18/6 8/5eq: +0.035 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
51.26% (G:1.81% B:0.09%)
48.74% (G:2.87% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.028...+0.042) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 4/1 3/1.

I want to clear either my 13 point or 10 point but not the 8 point which will create more blotting rolls for me. So I must play this within my board and making my ace point then looks to be best.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 94
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCAA---b--b-bBbb-bab-:0:0:1:63:3:2:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-16

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 115
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBAA---bB-c-cBbb-ba--:0:0:1:52:3:2:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.168
Player:
Opponent:
44.18% (G:1.64% B:0.04%)
55.82% (G:0.99% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.175...-0.161) - [90.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.Rollout18/6 7/2eq: -0.175 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
43.88% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
56.12% (G:1.15% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.181...-0.168) - [9.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
3.XG Roller++8/1eq: -0.183 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
43.59% (G:1.36% B:0.01%)
56.41% (G:1.41% B:0.04%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30078360
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/11 13/8
[ 9] 8/6 7/2
[ 1] 8/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 13/8

New roll, and a new position.

It would be nice to cover our 2 point and give ourselves a 5 point board …. but if we play 8/6 7/2 we will have some awkward rolls next turn. Those rolls are 61, 51 and even 41. Suppose Neil makes his 4 point with the spares from the 10 and 8 points and we roll 61 or 51. We would have to weaken our board in some way as we cannot play the 1 from the midpoint so we would be forced to keep our mid-point. With 41, I would lay 6/1 which keeps our board but it may take a few turns to cover our 1 point blot. After that, we would not want to roll 1x again as that would further cause us problems.

The alternative is to give up the mid-point now with 13/11 13/8. This is flexible and removes the above awkward rolls. 6 awkward rolls may not sound like much, but that’s 17% of the time and it is easily avoidable.

So 13/11 13/8 for me.

P.S. Bill Robertie covered this concept well in his book ‘Modern Backgammon’.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBAB--Ab--c-cBbb-ba--:0:0:-1:65:3:2:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout110/4 8/3eq: +0.237
Player:
Opponent:
57.76% (G:1.07% B:0.04%)
42.24% (G:1.90% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.229...+0.244) - [71.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.xgRollout110/4 6/1eq: +0.234 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
58.14% (G:1.03% B:0.03%)
41.86% (G:2.11% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.227...+0.241) - [28.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.Rollout110/5 8/2eq: +0.219 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
57.37% (G:0.90% B:0.03%)
42.63% (G:2.00% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.212...+0.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 46 seconds
4.Rollout18/2 6/1eq: +0.208 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
56.96% (G:0.95% B:0.03%)
43.04% (G:2.21% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.200...+0.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32510833
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4 8/3.

I think my 6 should be played 10/4 to slot my 4 point, both for the race and to try to make it in case I hit later. Then I have an ugly 5 to play. If I were far ahead in the race, I’d play 6/1 and avoid a blotting 61 for now (although 66 blots) and retain a bit more timing in my outfield. But with the race close, I don’t think I want to mangle my board like that. So I’ll play 10/4 8/3.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 99
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBAB--Ab--b-bBbbaca--:0:0:1:65:3:2:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 122
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--A-BCBAB---bBbb-bBbb-ba--:0:0:1:52:3:2:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout18/3 5/3eq: -0.253
Player:
Opponent:
41.58% (G:1.56% B:0.03%)
58.42% (G:0.91% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.256...-0.250) - [98.6%]
Duration: 8 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout18/6 8/3eq: -0.259 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
41.47% (G:1.53% B:0.03%)
58.53% (G:1.05% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.262...-0.256) - [0.3%]
Duration: 8 hours 02 minutes
3.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.260 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
41.36% (G:1.41% B:0.03%)
58.64% (G:1.01% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.263...-0.257) - [0.1%]
Duration: 7 hours 53 minutes
4.Rollout18/3 7/5eq: -0.262 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
41.33% (G:1.54% B:0.03%)
58.67% (G:1.11% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.265...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 23 minutes
5.Rollout27/2 5/3eq: -0.263 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
41.30% (G:1.48% B:0.03%)
58.70% (G:1.08% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.269...-0.256) - [0.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
6.Rollout28/6 7/2eq: -0.263 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
41.31% (G:1.54% B:0.03%)
58.69% (G:1.08% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.270...-0.256) - [0.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66706178
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66706178
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 8/3 5/3
[ 5] 7/2 5/3
[ 2] 8/6 7/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 5/3

Playing 8/3 5/3 makes the next point in order. It also gives us 6’s and 5’s to cover the slotted 2 point. I would look to see if there was anything I liked better, but here there is nothing I like better so I would play 8/3 5/3.

We do not need to worry about clearing the 13 point yet. We still have timing, and I really want to improve the strength of our board.


Steve Sax recommends: 8/3 5/3

Because the position is so in volatile it doesn’t matter a whole lot what you do as long as you don’t leave a direct shot.

I personally would make the three-point and depending on what the sequence was between what Neil rolled and my next roll, either bring two checkers off the mid-point or make my own two-point.

The only benefit for making the three-point this roll over bringing two down now is to block Neil on double aces. And even that doesn’t gain you too much equity as he can play it fairly conveniently on his side of the board.

And after my (5-2) which puts me up one pip and then his proposed (1-1) which would put him up three pips, there isn’t too much equity gained for him to move from (13-12) twice.

Also when you consider that if after making the three-point, I roll 6-1 followed by another 6-1 or even 5-1 I might leave a shot or at least play deep my pips which could cost me in the bear off. That could cost me in the race somewhat and to a great percentage of the time, that’s what we’re going to end up in.

In the final analysis the equity differential is very minor, but we should always strive to make the best play and if it can be analyzed to a correct answer then we should take that route.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 115
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBAA---bBbb-bBbb-ba--:0:0:-1:31:3:2:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout111/10 11/8eq: +0.127
Player:
Opponent:
54.33% (G:1.06% B:0.04%)
45.67% (G:1.69% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.120...+0.133) - [87.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout15/4 5/2eq: +0.121 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
54.14% (G:1.11% B:0.03%)
45.86% (G:2.12% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.114...+0.128) - [12.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
3.Rollout16/2eq: +0.109 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
53.77% (G:1.06% B:0.03%)
46.23% (G:2.01% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.102...+0.116) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66706178
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/10 11/8.

Keeping my landing points and playing inside my board is possible but with the race getting closer and the 11 point being awkward at times, I think I should clear it. This also aims builders at my 4 point.

11/10 11/8 per my plan last turn when I made Too Many Points with that 33.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 115
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBAA---bB-c-cBbb-ba--:0:0:1:52:3:2:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-10-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 130
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ACCAC--bdB---bBbb-ba--:0:0:1:62:3:2:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout18/2 6/4eq: -0.002
Player:
Opponent:
49.38% (G:2.92% B:0.09%)
50.62% (G:1.79% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.011...+0.006) - [98.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
2.Rollout18/2 5/3eq: -0.016 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
49.05% (G:3.74% B:0.09%)
50.95% (G:2.65% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.024...-0.008) - [0.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
3.Rollout18/2 7/5eq: -0.018 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
48.85% (G:3.53% B:0.15%)
51.15% (G:2.62% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.025...-0.010) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
4.Rollout18/6 8/2eq: -0.019 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
48.95% (G:3.77% B:0.10%)
51.05% (G:2.87% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.027...-0.011) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
5.Rollout18/2 4/2eq: -0.019 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
48.90% (G:2.72% B:0.06%)
51.10% (G:1.90% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.027...-0.011) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66706178
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 8/2 6/4
[ 2] 8/2 4/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2 6/4
I like making the 4 point 6/4. This gives us a pure 3 point board.

How do we play the six? If we play 13/7 we give Neil 20 hitting numbers which is too many. Our 13 point has some restraining value in this situation. If we clear it safely then the only shots we would have at a 14 point blot (if Neil leaves a 14 point blot) would be indirect shots.

So we are left with 8/2. We do not have to like it, we just have to do it.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 122
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--A-BCBAB--bdB---bBbb-ba--:0:0:-1:33:3:2:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout114/11(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.222
Player:
Opponent:
57.40% (G:1.06% B:0.04%)
42.60% (G:1.60% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.215...+0.229) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
2.Rollout114/8(2)eq: +0.203 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
56.90% (G:0.85% B:0.02%)
43.10% (G:1.01% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.196...+0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
3.xgRollout113/10(4)eq: +0.194 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
56.59% (G:1.00% B:0.04%)
43.41% (G:1.01% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.187...+0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66706178
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/11(2) 13/10(2).

This is a nice roll for me giving me a slight race lead and allowing me to disengage somewhat and come forward towards home. There are three reasonable plays.

A) 13/10(4) may look a bit funny, but this gives me some spares to play. By releasing the mid point/bar point contact, I may be able to leave only a 7 shot once my opponents have to abandon their mid point. However, this leaves them a basically winning 66, while my 66 would win for me. But is mid point/bar point contact really bad for me? I don’t think so, since if we get squeezed down to having no spares and nothing but those 2 outfield points, I have 10 pips more timing due to having 2 checkers on the 13 point vs. their 18 point. So keeping the mid point for now may be OK.

B) 14/8(2) clears the 14 point and gives me spares and any apparent awkwardness isn’t so bad. If I can’t play safely from the mid point next roll, I just play from the 8 point.

3) 14/11(2) 13/10(2) looks like it makes TMP (too many points) that are under contact. But this may not be as bad as it looks and I might be able to clear the mid point next roll, landing safely on my 3 outfield points. That would result in a nicer position for me, while still having some restraining contact vs. their anchor on my bar point, unless they roll a big number. This play also blocks 33 and 44 and 66 for now. If I leave fewer jokers, they are less likely to roll one!

But still, TMP worries me, so I looked at all my next rolls and then looked at them a 2nd time. Most rolls can clear something, and if I roll 21 or 41 or 43, I can play inside my board. The only severe issues I will face are if roll those award numbers a couple of times in succession.

I will try 14/11(2) 13/10(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 122
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--A-BCBAB---bBbb-bBbb-ba--:0:0:1:52:3:2:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10