USBGF OLM 2018-02-24

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBCBBB--A------bbdcc---A-:1:-1:1:32:9:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/21 3/1eq: +0.435
Player:
Opponent:
71.76% (G:26.41% B:0.00%)
28.24% (G:1.53% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.432...+0.438) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 9/7eq: +0.408 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
70.38% (G:25.11% B:0.01%)
29.62% (G:1.36% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.405...+0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 228860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 24/21 3/1
[ 9] 24/21 9/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 3/1

Things have really gone our way, we have closed Neil out and now thrown a 3 to play 24/21 getting to the edge of the prime.

We now need to throw a 6, and keep our board as long as is possible. For that reason we should avoid playing 9/7 which forces us to break our board with 62, 53, 52, 43 and 22. Instead we have to play the ugly 3/1 but sometimes backgammon is not a beauty contest. 24/21 3/1 is my play.



USBGF Members: 54 6/2 6/1
Neil Kazaross: 65 b/14
USBGF Members: 62 21/13
Neil Kazaross: 42 14/12*/8
USBGF Members: 66 no play

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 68
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBBB---A------bcdcc----A:1:-1:-1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout19/4 8/4eq: +0.658
Player:
Opponent:
82.89% (G:3.36% B:0.05%)
17.11% (G:1.78% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.656...+0.659) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout18/3 7/3eq: +0.570 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
78.51% (G:2.90% B:0.04%)
21.49% (G:1.57% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.568...+0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 228860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/4 8/4.

Well it seems that rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated! Here it is clear for me to walk in the 5 prime with 9/4 8/4. This pays off to a 63, but if I play blotlessly and make my 3 point, I pay off to 64 escaping since I will be more than 30 pips behind. So I just make the forward going play and hope to roll a “prime number” next turn.



USBGF Members: 62 b/23 9/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 60
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCCBB----------abdccb-A--:1:-1:-1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout19/8 7/4eq: +0.666
Player:
Opponent:
83.30% (G:2.96% B:0.06%)
16.70% (G:0.67% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.665...+0.667) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout17/6 7/4eq: +0.650 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
82.48% (G:2.93% B:0.06%)
17.52% (G:1.30% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.648...+0.651) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 28 seconds
3.Rollout17/3eq: +0.636 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
81.78% (G:4.10% B:0.08%)
18.22% (G:6.65% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.634...+0.637) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62631974
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/8 7/4.

My goal here is to diversify and hopefully soon make a full 6 prime and walk it in for a closeout or failing that, simply close my board. 7/4 is clear and then I need to find an ace. Slotting 4/3 would seem okay if my opponents had a weakened and blotted board, but they currently have a 5 point board, although 4 of their 11 hits will break a point. But slotting seems too risky to me when I have such good chances to make a prime soon anyhow. So it seems that the best ace is 9/8.

9/8 is not played to dodge the 61 joker as I might even be better off getting hit with 61 since I am so far behind. 9/8 is played for diversification and to make most of my 6’s (the rolls that don’t make a prime) play well.



USBGF Members: 54 5/1
Neil Kazaross: 54 8/3 7/3
USBGF Members: 32 5/2 3/1
Neil Kazaross: 65 8/2* 7/2
USBGF Members: 62 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 53
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-FDBB------------aacccbb-A:1:-1:-1:42:9:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/6 7/3eq: +0.848
Player:
Opponent:
92.39% (G:1.91% B:0.05%)
7.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.847...+0.849) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17.2 seconds
2.Rollout17/3 4/2eq: +0.843 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
92.15% (G:1.60% B:0.04%)
7.85% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.842...+0.844) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.8 seconds
3.Rollout18/4 7/5eq: +0.828 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
91.41% (G:2.00% B:0.04%)
8.59% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.827...+0.829) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17.9 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10404417
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/6 7/3.

8/6 7/3 is clear to give me a 4th builder for my ace point and a safe position. Note a small nuance here in that I don’t want to put a checker on my 2 point unless it were to be a 5th builder. This way most of my aces play well by picking and passing if they enter.



USBGF Members: 43 no play
Neil Kazaross: 42 5/1 3/1
Neil Kazaross: 21 6/5 4/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 55
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 53
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-FDBB--------------ccbbcbA:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/Offeq: +0.927
Player:
Opponent:
96.33% (G:2.41% B:0.04%)
3.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.926...+0.927) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6.7 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 5/4eq: +0.922 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.12% (G:1.49% B:0.02%)
3.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.922...+0.923) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3.6 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24571708
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/0.

I’ve studied this stuff as it comes up often. Against a 4 point crashed board or weaker, I recall it is slightly best even at DMP to play 6/0. Against a 5 point board, the dangers from being hit are greater so I’d have to play more safely and risk a bit more racing losses.

After 6/0 vs. a 4 point board I can often win when hit if I blot with a big double (55 being my worst, as I rip 3 off leaving 13 shots) so that is my choice.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 49
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 53
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-FDBB--------------bcbbcbA:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout15/Off 2/1eq: +0.965
Player:
Opponent:
98.26% (G:2.52% B:0.05%)
1.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.965...+0.966) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3.8 seconds
2.Rollout16/5 6/1eq: +0.912 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
95.58% (G:1.51% B:0.02%)
4.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.911...+0.912) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.2 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83810672
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/0 2/1.

Once again I should play for the race. After 5/0 2/1, it takes a long parlay for me to be hit and then lose. Every checker that I bear off also helps to improve my chances to survive if I am somehow hit.



Neil Kazaross: 64 6/2 6/0
USBGF Members: 41 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 33
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 53
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-FDBB---------------bbbccA:1:-1:-1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout13/2 3/Offeq: +0.978
Player:
Opponent:
98.92% (G:2.51% B:0.02%)
1.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.978...+0.979) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10.8 seconds
2.Rollout15/4 5/2eq: +0.961 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
98.05% (G:2.64% B:0.03%)
1.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.961...+0.961) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7.5 seconds
3.Rollout14/3 4/1eq: +0.959 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
97.95% (G:2.15% B:0.02%)
2.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.959...+0.959) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9.8 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58441677
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 3/2 3/0.

Here I can play 3/2 3/0, which does two good things and one bad thing. 1) It takes a checker off. 2) It only leaves me 4 blotting rolls next turn. 3) But it makes a lower gap that can lead to future problems and also cause me to waste a turn in the bearoff if I roll a 3 twice.

Notice that due to my opponent’s crashed board, they can only remain on my 3 point with 31 and 32, and 32 breaks their board further. This also causes me to prefer this play over the alternatives that seem to be at least as shot-prone and don’t take a checker off.



USBGF Members: 61 b/18
Neil Kazaross: 43 5/2 4/0
USBGF Members: 53 18/10
Neil Kazaross: 43 5/2 4/0
USBGF Members: 21 10/7
Neil Kazaross: 62 2/0(2)
USBGF Members: 51


Neil Kazaross wins two points and the match.

USBGF OLM 2018-02-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBCaBBB-------Abbdcc---A-:1:-1:1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout17/6 7/4* eq: -0.192
Player:
Opponent:
40.42% (G:11.22% B:0.01%)
59.58% (G:7.95% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.195...-0.189) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout17/4* 5/4eq: -0.202 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
39.90% (G:9.85% B:0.01%)
60.10% (G:8.76% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.205...-0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 23 seconds
3.Rollout17/4* 4/3eq: -0.224 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
38.78% (G:7.93% B:0.02%)
61.22% (G:5.73% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.227...-0.222) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 23 seconds
4.Rollout124/23 7/4* eq: -0.226 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
38.68% (G:10.81% B:0.01%)
61.32% (G:9.20% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.229...-0.224) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 20 seconds
5.Rollout115/14 7/4* eq: -0.250 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
37.48% (G:10.62% B:0.02%)
62.52% (G:9.79% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.253...-0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 33 seconds
6.Rollout17/4* 3/2eq: -0.258 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
37.09% (G:10.49% B:0.02%)
62.91% (G:9.50% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.261...-0.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 35 seconds
7.Rollout124/21 5/4* eq: -0.297 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
35.14% (G:8.11% B:0.02%)
64.86% (G:15.43% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.300...-0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 04 seconds
8.Rollout124/21 3/2eq: -0.437 (-0.246)
Player:
Opponent:
28.13% (G:9.45% B:0.10%)
71.87% (G:10.36% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.441...-0.434) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 33 seconds
9.Rollout124/21 15/14eq: -0.465 (-0.274)
Player:
Opponent:
26.73% (G:8.54% B:0.05%)
73.27% (G:11.34% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.468...-0.463) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57109259
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 7/6 7/4*
[11] 7/4*/3
[ 4] 15/14 7/4*
[ 4] 24/21 3/2
[ 1] 24/21 5/4*
[ 1] 7/4* 5/4
[ 1] 24/23 7/4*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/6 7/4*

It would be so nice to step up 24/21 and Neil miss us and then we roll a 6… but unfortunately this is not going to happen enough for us to justify the risk.

How about putting Neil on the bar with 7/4*? This does give us real winning chances. I was torn between then playing 5/4 lifting the blot or 7/6. The advantage of 7/6 is it does cut down the number of blots and makes a 43 reply by Neil less harmful. In the end I went with 7/4* 7/6. This could be wrong but it feels best.



Neil Kazaross: 66 no play
USBGF Members: 62 15/9 6/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBCBBB--A------bbdcc---A-:1:-1:1:32:9:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACCaBBB-----a--bcbccA--A-:1:-1:1:61:9:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout121/15 2/1eq: -0.583
Player:
Opponent:
20.83% (G:3.97% B:0.03%)
79.17% (G:11.31% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.587...-0.580) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 21/15eq: -0.614 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
19.28% (G:3.34% B:0.01%)
80.72% (G:14.52% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.618...-0.611) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 37 seconds
3.Rollout121/15 3/2eq: -0.634 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
18.31% (G:2.78% B:0.00%)
81.69% (G:14.41% B:1.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.637...-0.631) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout121/14eq: -0.636 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
18.18% (G:3.85% B:0.04%)
81.82% (G:13.00% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.640...-0.633) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 09 seconds
5.Rollout121/15 5/4* eq: -0.652 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
17.41% (G:4.41% B:0.00%)
82.59% (G:26.29% B:4.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.655...-0.649) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 28 seconds
6.Rollout17/1 5/4* eq: -0.663 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
16.84% (G:4.35% B:0.02%)
83.16% (G:24.77% B:3.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.666...-0.660) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 47 seconds
7.Rollout121/15 6/5eq: -0.665 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
16.74% (G:2.67% B:0.02%)
83.26% (G:16.44% B:1.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.668...-0.662) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 09 seconds
8.Rollout121/15 7/6eq: -0.676 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
16.18% (G:2.56% B:0.03%)
83.82% (G:16.07% B:1.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.679...-0.674) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 33 seconds
9.Rollout17/6 7/1eq: -0.683 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
15.84% (G:3.77% B:0.02%)
84.16% (G:13.98% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.686...-0.680) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57109259
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 21/15 2/1
[ 2] 21/14
[ 1] 7/6 7/1
[ 1] 7/1 5/4*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/15 2/1

Neil rolled one of the sixes we were hoping for. After this roll we will be ahead in the race by 32 pips so we need to escape a checker with 21/15, then I would just improve my board to a 5 point board with 2/1.


Steve Sax recommends: 21/15 2/1

The USBGF Members must run out with the six and as far as the ace is concerned, might as well make the ace point.

If Neil fails to make a six prime then at least we have a five point board and can more confidently both move our back checker forward and attack Neil’s back checker.

Additionally we leave deuces duplicated for Neil as his checker on the 15 point is two away from our outfield blot. Depending on what Neil rolls they can either elect to make a six prime or hit the blot with a deuce.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBCaBBB-----a-Abcbcc---A-:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout112/7 8/7eq: +0.325
Player:
Opponent:
66.23% (G:10.16% B:0.81%)
33.77% (G:7.51% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.324...+0.326) - [86.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
2.xgRollout19/4 5/4eq: +0.324 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
66.19% (G:10.93% B:0.96%)
33.81% (G:21.35% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.323...+0.325) - [13.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout212/6eq: +0.316 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
65.80% (G:9.39% B:0.71%)
34.20% (G:6.37% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.313...+0.319) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57109259
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57109259
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/7 8/7.

This roll is another dud from my dice. At Gammon Go, I’d just chance making my 4 point and hope for good things to happen. At Gammon Save, I’d very clearly have to play more safely. For money play, I think I also have to play safely since I can lose quite a few gammons after making the 4 point. I’m not sure how this safe vs bold analysis helps me decide at DMP however!

So let’s find the best safe play, which means the best ace after playing 12/7. I think the best ace is then 8/7 making my blocked 33 play well and diversifying my small rolls that don’t hop over the 3 prime.

So what about making the 4 point? This certainly is best when I am not hit anywhere and duplicates 2’s nicely. But I am concerned about also being hit with a 3 or even a 65, as my opponents do have a 5 point board and if a 2nd blot gets picked up my chances to survive after entering go down.

I’m not at all sure, but I will more safely play 12/7 8/7 and worry about my next roll next turn.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBCaBBB-------Abbdcc---A-:1:-1:1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCbBCB--------bcbcc---B-:1:-1:1:43:9:9:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout124/21 6/2eq: -0.672
Player:
Opponent:
16.42% (G:4.49% B:0.06%)
83.58% (G:18.21% B:1.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.674...-0.669) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 5/1eq: -0.693 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
15.36% (G:3.37% B:0.01%)
84.64% (G:21.89% B:1.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.696...-0.690) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout124/21 7/3eq: -0.721 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
13.96% (G:3.16% B:0.03%)
86.04% (G:20.96% B:1.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.724...-0.718) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 30 seconds
4.Rollout15/2 5/1eq: -0.765 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
11.73% (G:2.14% B:0.00%)
88.27% (G:19.78% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.768...-0.763) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57109259
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 24/21 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 6/2

We simply must get to the edge of Neil’s prime with 24/21, if we are to have any chance of winning. Notice how Neil’s sixes play after we move 24/21:

  • with 66 he should keep his prime and play 21/9(2) and still be 10 pips behind in the race,
  • with 65 he should keep his prime and play 21/15 21/16 and be 24 pips behind in the race,
  • with 63 he should keep his prime and play 21/12 and be 25 pips behind in the race,
  • with other 6’s he should hit loose and we do have a 4 point board and will be ahead in the race.

We would like to anchor at the edge of then roll doubles to enter a favourable race. We must avoid leaving a shot, so we should play 6/2.


Steve Sax recommends: 24/21 6/2

The USBGF Members are ahead in the race but behind a prime. Our best chance is to move to the edge of the prime with the three. As far as the four is concerned, I don’t see any benefit in leaving an additional checker in jeopardy, so simply play 6/2 and hope for the best.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACCbBBB--------bcbccA--A-:1:-1:-1:63:9:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout121/12eq: +0.537
Player:
Opponent:
76.87% (G:11.94% B:0.64%)
23.13% (G:4.81% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.534...+0.540) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 5/2eq: +0.489 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
74.44% (G:12.88% B:0.57%)
25.56% (G:6.03% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.486...+0.491) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout121/15 8/5eq: +0.486 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
74.29% (G:12.51% B:0.60%)
25.71% (G:6.04% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.483...+0.489) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 48 seconds
4.Rollout121/15 6/3eq: +0.454 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
72.72% (G:12.19% B:0.76%)
27.28% (G:10.50% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.451...+0.458) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57109259
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/12.

This may be my worst roll but certainly no tragedy. I simply run a checker into my outfield and leave my spare checkers where they are as builders to make a prime. This leaves few jokers and duplicates my opponents 3’s that they need to anchor.

I could play very safely and make my 2 point, but I think retaining my builders is significantly better.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACCaBBB-----a--bcbccA--A-:1:-1:1:61:9:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBaBDC----a---bbbcc---B-:1:-1:1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout17/3 6/1* eq: -0.577
Player:
Opponent:
21.14% (G:8.43% B:0.03%)
78.86% (G:17.41% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.581...-0.574) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 6/1* eq: -0.604 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
19.78% (G:7.44% B:0.17%)
80.22% (G:19.32% B:1.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.608...-0.601) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 52 seconds
3.Rollout16/1* 5/1eq: -0.627 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
18.65% (G:6.87% B:0.05%)
81.35% (G:18.33% B:1.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.630...-0.624) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 04 seconds
4.Rollout17/2 6/2eq: -0.636 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
18.19% (G:5.64% B:0.08%)
81.81% (G:17.56% B:1.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.640...-0.633) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57109259
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 7/3 6/1*
[ 3] 7/2 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

To have any chance in the game we have to hit 6/1*.

After that, it is worth keeping a spare checker on our 6 point and our bar point so I would play 7/3.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aABCaBCB----a---bbbcc---B-:1:-1:-1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: +0.672
Player:
Opponent:
83.60% (G:16.62% B:0.97%)
16.40% (G:3.71% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.669...+0.675) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 19 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/16eq: +0.635 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
81.76% (G:15.91% B:1.49%)
18.24% (G:5.99% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.632...+0.638) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57109259
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 13/8.

This is a fine roll — now my back checkers are secure in a good spot and I can simply concentrate on playing what I call 13 vs. 2 on my side of the board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCbBCB--------bcbcc---B-:1:-1:1:43:9:9:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---BD-C--AcC--ac-db---B-:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout113/7 11/7eq: +0.082
Player:
Opponent:
54.10% (G:19.98% B:3.25%)
45.90% (G:15.95% B:2.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.078...+0.086) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
2.Rollout124/14eq: +0.016 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
50.81% (G:16.47% B:2.35%)
49.19% (G:17.05% B:2.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.012...+0.020) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57109259
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] 13/7 11/7
[ 2] 8/2 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 11/7

Normally when I am ahead in the race, I either race or attack depending on the positions and what the alternatives are. Here we are ahead in the race effectively playing DMP. The alternative of making the bar point with 13/7 11/7 is just too good a move at this score or any score so I will make the bar point.


Steve Sax recommends: 13/7 11/7

While we would like to escape, we can’t get all the way out so running 24/14 only accomplishes a portion of a goal. The goals we are trying to achieve are: (1) can we escape, (2) can we hit a checker, (3) can we make a point.

Now, not all goals are considered equal, and sometimes making a point will be a worse option than escaping part way, but in this situation it’s not the case.

That is of course because the point made (the bar point) is constructive.

Among all the points on the board that we want, it’s just about the one we want to make the most. That is because it make a four prime with aspirations of making a five prime with the active builders on the six and eight points.

There is risk involved in not attempting in that we can become counter-primed. That isn’t a favorite to occur but certainly possible, as Neil has three builders to improve to a four prime of his own or at least numbers that make his four or three point which are constructive for Neil.

However, when it comes down to it, the choice to make the bar point does seem somewhat clear as the potential of being primed in is super ceded by the desire to make a constructive move.



Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7
USBGF Members: 66 13/7(2) 8/2(2)
Neil Kazaross: 31 13/9
USBGF Members: 54 8/3 7/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBB-BDC----a---bbbdb---B-:1:-1:-1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout124/21 6/5eq: +0.417
Player:
Opponent:
70.87% (G:15.13% B:1.39%)
29.13% (G:14.78% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.414...+0.421) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 13/12eq: +0.389 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
69.45% (G:14.19% B:1.19%)
30.55% (G:14.92% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.385...+0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +0.362 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
68.08% (G:14.87% B:1.04%)
31.92% (G:13.15% B:3.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.358...+0.366) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57109259
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 6/5.

I have a 5 prime and my opponents don’t. They aren’t at the edge of my 5 prime and will have to roll very well to get both checkers out quickly. Their 6’s are killed, and by splitting I can reactivate them. All this points to splitting.

However, their board is significantly stronger than mine, and by splitting I may end up closed out and then will have to hope my 5 prime can hold them while they crash. They have plenty of wiggle room behind my structure so this may be a big if.

It looks close, but I think one is generally supposed to split here, and by splitting I duplicate 3’s to hit me or get to the edge of my 5 prime.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBBaBDC----a---bbbcc---B-:1:-1:1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---BD-B---cE--ad-e----B-:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout124/22 13/8eq: +0.112
Player:
Opponent:
55.59% (G:18.79% B:2.57%)
44.41% (G:14.75% B:1.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.110...+0.113) - [99.5%]
Duration: 9 hours 46 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 6/4eq: +0.108 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
55.42% (G:19.05% B:3.05%)
44.58% (G:16.27% B:2.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.106...+0.110) - [0.5%]
Duration: 10 hours 44 minutes
3.playedRollout113/11 13/8eq: +0.104 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
55.21% (G:19.44% B:2.86%)
44.79% (G:14.93% B:2.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.102...+0.106) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 40 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60280348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 13/11 13/8
[11] 24/22 13/8
[ 1] 13/8 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 13/8

We should obviously play the five 13/8, then decide on the best two. Either 6/4 or 13/11 or 24/22 is acceptable. I would look at the position and note that we had the better board so split 24/22 and challenge Neil now.



Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---BD-C--AcC--ac-db---B-:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---BD-B---cE--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:9:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 58.48% (G:20.31% B:2.94%) 58.44% (G:20.74% B:3.32%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 41.52% (G:12.74% B:1.52%) 41.56% (G:12.81% B:1.55%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.307 +0.476
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.468 (-0.008)±0.005 (+0.463..+0.472)
played Double/Take:+0.476±0.005 (+0.471..+0.481)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.524)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40445601
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:99.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 17 hours 37 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Double
[ 5] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

My cube handling at 2-away 2-away is very simple – If I think my opponent does not understand the cube actions I delay cubing to give myself a free shot at winning a Gammon. Here Neil obviously understands the score so I would just double now.

I know 31P-54D as a reference position, so I am aware that we will win 59% of the time, so I double.


Neil Kazaross takes.

While this is a very poor opening sequence for me, I still have far more than the 32.25% needed to take for the match.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---BD-B---cE--ad-e----B-:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 50
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 74
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDD----A--------A-bd-cccA:1:-1:1:42:7:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout1Bar/21 8/6eq: -0.932
Player:
Opponent:
3.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.58% (G:3.73% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.932...-0.931) - [96.6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 13 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/21 17/15eq: -0.932 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
3.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.60% (G:3.23% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.932...-0.932) - [3.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/21 3/1eq: -0.939 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
3.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.93% (G:4.26% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.939...-0.938) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8988871
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] b/21 17/15 (coin flip!)
[14] b/21 8/6
[ 2] b/21 3/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 17/15

Although we are in a bad way, we need to squeeze every drop of equity out of this position.

After we enter with Bar/21, if we play 8/6 and Neil rolls 62, yes we will get a shot, but if we hit and part of the roll is a 1 or 2 then we will not be able to safety the bolt on our 6 point. So we should play 17/15. I know this is very unlikely to happen but we need to make sure that when it does, that we have the best chance of winning.


Steve Sax recommends: b/21 8/6

It’s looking pretty grim for the USBGF Members here, but we must try to find the best play.

After entering with the forced four, I would play 8/6 with the two.

More than likely Neil will not be able (or desire to) put the USBGF Members on the bar. Since our best chance to win the game is by racing and not by contact, I believe it’s best to make the crossover, hope to be missed and roll 55 or 66.

Having made the crossover, we can get our checkers home with the big doubles and try to extend our meager winning chances to something a little more respectable.

As it turns out, after playing 8/6 or 17/15 gives us equal game winning chances (3.4%).

Perhaps the similarity of game winning chances has to do with staying an extra shake and hoping for Neil to roll 62 and the USBGF Members countering with a hit.

The 62, hit combination occurs about 2% of the time, but after one roll, Neil will either leave fewer shots or more shots depending on what he rolls after White plays.

In either case, it’s getting down to the wire as our match winning chances are even less (1.7%) than the previously mentioned 2% parlay.



Neil Kazaross: 64 6/2 6/0
USBGF Members: 66 21/3 15/9
Neil Kazaross: 64 5/1 5/0
USBGF Members: 53 9/4 8/5
Neil Kazaross: 52 5/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 44 5/1 4/0 3/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 43 5/1 3/0
USBGF Members: 62 3/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 62 3/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 31 3/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 64 3/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 63 3/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 61 2/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 55 2/0(2) 1/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 61


USBGF Members win two points. The match is tied 2-away/2-away.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 54 13/9 13/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---BD-B---cE--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:9:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 62
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 63
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDD----a-AA------Abc-ccc-:1:-1:1:31:7:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout118/17 11/8* eq: -0.101
Player:
Opponent:
44.89% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
55.11% (G:4.84% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.102...-0.099) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds
2.Rollout111/8* 3/2eq: -0.136 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
43.14% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
56.86% (G:5.64% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.137...-0.134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout111/8* 2/1eq: -0.136 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
43.11% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
56.89% (G:5.73% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.138...-0.134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds
4.Rollout111/8* 8/7eq: -0.144 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
42.72% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
57.28% (G:6.39% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.146...-0.142) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 52 seconds
5.Rollout111/8* 10/9eq: -0.162 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
41.85% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
58.15% (G:4.60% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.163...-0.160) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8988871
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 18/17 11/8
[ 5] 11/8*/7
[ 2] 11/8 10/9
[ 1] 11/8* 2/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

First I think to myself what is my game plan here. I just want to win by getting my checkers home safely. As I am unlikely to win a gammon, my game plan is to race and get my checkers home safely. After hitting 11/8*, if I leave my checker on the 18 point there, say with 3/2, I cover with any 8 (6 rolls) or 10 (3 rolls) which is 9 rolls in total. If I play 18/17 then I cover with any 7 (6 rolls) or 9 (5 rolls) which is 11 rolls in total. 2 more cover rolls would decide it for me so I play 18/17 11/8*.



Neil Kazaross: 55 b/15*/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 50
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 74
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDD----A--------A-bd-cccA:1:-1:1:42:7:9:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 65
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 80
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDD-----a---A----Abd-ccbA:1:-1:1:43:7:9:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout1Bar/18eq: -0.727
Player:
Opponent:
13.59% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
86.41% (G:10.66% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.729...-0.726) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/10eq: -0.774 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
11.29% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
88.71% (G:17.80% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.775...-0.773) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68776601
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] b/21 13/10
[11] b/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/18

It looks clever to play Bar/21 13/10, duplicating 1’s. But let’s compare how many shots we get after 13/10 and 21/18:

13/10 – 62, 52, 53, 42, 44 and 32. That’s 11 rolls.

21/18 – 61, 62, 63, 51, 52, 53, 54, 33, 32 and 21. That’s 19 rolls.

So 21/18 after bar/21 gives us 7 more rolls to hit Neil’s checker plus leaves only 1 blot but 13/10 leaves 3 blots.

So I will go with fewer blots and more shots.


Steve Sax recommends: b/18

The USBGF Members have two basic choices. We can play 13/10 or 21/18.

Each play has its gains and drawbacks so let’s go over those now.

There are three basic possibilities after either choice and those are that we will be hit, we will be missed and get a shot at Neil or Neil safeties his back checker and the race ensues.

After 21/18, Neil will hit with 15 numbers, safety his back checker without hitting with four numbers and leave a direct shot with 17 numbers.

After 13/10, Neil will hit with 19 numbers, safety his back checker without hitting with six numbers and leave a direct shot with 13 numbers.

The big swing after playing 13/10 is that when Neil rolls 62, we get a double direct shot, but how much that hit is worth is debatable since we only have a busted three point board.

Now, some of these hitting numbers have their flaws, such as 54 after (21/18) since Neil can hit, but can’t play a five without breaking his six point and leaving a shot.

Additionally Neil does safety his back checker with 66 after 13/10, but leaves a direct shot on his four point.

Those peculiarities don’t add up to too much and when you consider that 21/18 gets hit less often it seems like it should win more often.

That is even more evident when you note that by playing 21/18, we are playing with one blot. If we are missed we are only starting the race down eight pips.

True, those eight pips are quite a stretch from an normal race as we have crossover/wastage/gap issues, but we do have a chance in the race if we aren’t hit and playing with one blot gives us a better chance to at least gain in that aspect of the game.

So make the anchor, get hit less often, play with fewer blots and occasionally win the race even if you don’t hit back.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 65
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 73
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDD-----aA-------AbdAccb-:1:-1:-1:42:7:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout116/14 5/1eq: +0.559
Player:
Opponent:
78.03% (G:4.02% B:0.03%)
21.97% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.557...+0.560) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 6/4* eq: +0.472 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
74.31% (G:10.45% B:0.08%)
25.69% (G:0.70% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.470...+0.475) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 20 seconds
3.Rollout116/12 3/1eq: +0.456 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
72.91% (G:3.84% B:0.02%)
27.09% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.454...+0.457) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 11 seconds
4.Rollout116/12 5/3eq: +0.453 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
72.74% (G:3.50% B:0.01%)
27.26% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.451...+0.454) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8988871
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/14 5/1.

When you don’t want to be hit, leave clearly fewer shots. 16/14 5/1 leaves only 9 shots so that’s my choice rather than coming closer to home and leaving many more shots.



USBGF Members: 64 21/11*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 63
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=aDDD------AA------Abc-ccc-:1:-1:-1:53:7:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout1Bar/20 5/2eq: +0.029
Player:
Opponent:
51.55% (G:2.03% B:0.00%)
48.45% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.028...+0.030) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 23 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/17eq: +0.025 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
51.33% (G:2.72% B:0.02%)
48.67% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.024...+0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8988871
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/17.

This is a tough decision, as if I stay put, I leave 28 shots but sometimes get to hit a needed return shot in my board. However, this forces my to use my last spare 3 and 4 that I can play without breaking my board. If I come out, I retain that spare but leave 24 shots. Since the race is now close and I’d like to hit a return shot, this play seems very close to me. I went through all the rolls and I am not sure, but if not hit, I want to be closer to home and not waste a bit of pips with 52. That clinches it for me as to what I play, and it is 4 fewer shots now.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 62
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 63
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDD----a-AA------Abc-ccc-:1:-1:1:31:7:9:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 64
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDD--A------A----abdAccb-:1:-1:1:31:7:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout121/18* 13/12eq: -0.284
Player:
Opponent:
35.74% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
64.26% (G:13.54% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.285...-0.282) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 11 seconds
2.playedRollout121/18* 6/5eq: -0.296 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
35.13% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
64.87% (G:10.24% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.297...-0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout121/18* 18/17eq: -0.301 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
34.86% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
65.14% (G:12.25% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.303...-0.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96164720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 21/18* 6/5
[ 9] 21/18* 13/12
[ 4] 21/18*/17


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/18* 13/12

Fantastic, we hit with 21/18*, now how do we play the 1? Moving 6/5 gives us 2 fewer shots to hit us, but even if missed we still have to get the other 2 checkers around safely into our board. Neil is a favourite to enter, so getting those checkers home might not be that easy after 6/5. 6/5 means the only chance we have to make a 4 point board is to roll an 8.

What about 13/12? We get hit 2 more rolls but in exchange, if we are missed and roll a 6, we have made a 4 point board and now have only 1 checker to get home. Neil cannot stick around, as any 6 forces him to run and any 5 makes him either run or weaken his board. So 21/18* 13/12 for me.


Steve Sax recommends: 21/18* 13/12

After hitting with the three White has an ace to play.

The two factors in determining the correct ace are how often we will be hit after making the play and how often we will cover the blot in our board if we are missed.

The first play that comes to mind is 21/18* 13/12, which leaves Neil 16 return shots, but if Neil doesn’t hit, we have 18 numbers to cover.

The “safer” play of 21/18* 6/5 leaves 14 return shots but if missed only gives us six numbers to make an inside point.

A third alternative of 21/18*/17 leaves 15 return shots and eight numbers to make the inside point.

How often a covering number will help us win is difficult to determine since Neil rates to enter, which will leave us with options to either cover, lift or hit loose in his board.

And simultaneously we need to consider where to place our back checkers in order to give us the best chance to contain Neil’s “hit” checker.

We are ahead in the race after hitting, so it’s not imperative to make a new point in our home board, but it certainly assists us to win the game, either if Neil stays out or comes in and is subsequently hit and then faced with a four point board instead of a three point board.

So if we can for the moment just assume that making an extra point in our board is good and being hit is bad, I would project that two additional shots (16 vs. 14) is a worthwhile risk with three times as many covers (18 vs. 6).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 74
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 60
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=aDDD-A-------A----Abd-ccb-:1:-1:-1:54:7:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/20* 20/16eq: +0.871
Player:
Opponent:
93.56% (G:29.86% B:0.42%)
6.44% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.870...+0.872) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20* 5/1eq: +0.794 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
89.78% (G:23.80% B:0.30%)
10.22% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.793...+0.796) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68776601
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20*/16.

This hit saves me and makes me a huge favorite. After b/20*, it is very clear to come closer to home with 20/16. Note that their 44 joker hits me no matter which 4 I play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 65
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 80
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDD-----a---A----Abd-ccbA:1:-1:1:43:7:9:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCE-------A---bb-bbbBbab-:1:-1:1:51:7:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout111/6 3/2eq: -0.523
Player:
Opponent:
23.42% (G:0.44% B:0.01%)
76.58% (G:6.95% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.524...-0.522) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 39 seconds
2.xgRollout111/5eq: -0.525 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
23.25% (G:0.50% B:0.02%)
76.75% (G:6.96% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.526...-0.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout111/6 2/1eq: -0.529 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
23.10% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
76.90% (G:6.60% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.530...-0.529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96164720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 11/6 3/2
[ 8] 11/5
[ 2] 11/6 2/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/6 3/2

If we play 6/5, then if we roll a subsequent 5, we must move from the 21 point, if Neil has moved his checkers on the 9 point. We want to have the choice of whether to run or not rather than having no choice, so we should keep the checker on our 6 point and play 3/2, which does not strip the 2 point.


Steve Sax recommends: 11/6 3/2

Again, it doesn’t make a whole lot of difference, but we should save a five (51 and 52) in case Neil breaks his nine point with numbers like 31, 61, 42, 33, 43, 63, 64 and 66.

I don’t see the gain in moving to the five point unless we get out with a big double. At that point, we would be better off with the loose checker on the five point instead of the four point, but that sequence is a longshot, whereas the above mentioned combinations at least occur 56/1296 which is about 4.3%.



Neil Kazaross: 55 10/5(2) 7/2(2)
USBGF Members: 53 21/13
Neil Kazaross: 62 9/7 9/3


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 64
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDD--A------A----abdAccb-:1:-1:1:31:7:9:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 114
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDF---------a-bcbbbbCa---:1:-1:1:51:7:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout12/1eq: -0.606
Player:
Opponent:
19.38% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
80.62% (G:7.01% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.609...-0.603) - [72.7%]
Duration: 15 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout13/2eq: -0.607 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
19.30% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
80.70% (G:6.87% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.610...-0.604) - [27.3%]
Duration: 15 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16585226
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 2/1
[15] 3/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 2/1

We should play 2/1 so we can handle 22 without breaking our 3 point, but I suspect the difference will be tiny.


Steve Sax recommends: 2/1

Not a lot on the line here, but if we knew we were going to roll 22 next, we would rather have four spares than three on our three point.

With four spares, we can keep our three point for the moment and with three, we lose the three point.

Also, if it somehow came down to a contact bear off, we would rather have a spare on the ace point, so we could take two checkers off with 21 or 31. That last part is super minor as we would rate to have already rolled an ace or deuce to accomplish that feat, far previous to any bear off where Neil is on the bar.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 114
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CCF---------a-bcbbbbCa---:1:-1:-1:52:7:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout112/7 3/1eq: +0.611
Player:
Opponent:
80.91% (G:7.80% B:0.13%)
19.09% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.609...+0.614) - [97.7%]
Duration: 15 minutes 19 seconds
2.Rollout19/2eq: +0.607 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
80.70% (G:7.37% B:0.09%)
19.30% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.604...+0.610) - [1.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 43 seconds
3.xgRollout112/5eq: +0.607 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
80.66% (G:7.76% B:0.18%)
19.34% (G:0.32% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.604...+0.610) - [1.2%]
Duration: 14 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout112/7 9/7eq: +0.604 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
80.59% (G:7.29% B:0.13%)
19.41% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.601...+0.607) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16585226
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/7 3/1.

I still want to keep their 3 checkers primed for as long as possible. If I play 9/2, then a 53 roll won’t be good. I think better is the flexible 12/7 3/1. I don’t see and bad blotting big doubles after this play.



USBGF Members: 62 3/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 107
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCE-----------bcbcbbC--a-:1:-1:-1:11:7:9:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout19/5eq: +0.612
Player:
Opponent:
80.94% (G:8.36% B:0.16%)
19.06% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.610...+0.615) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 23 seconds
2.xgRollout19/6 7/6eq: +0.602 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
80.47% (G:8.42% B:0.13%)
19.53% (G:0.38% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.599...+0.604) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 59 seconds
3.Rollout19/8 7/6 7/5eq: +0.570 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
79.35% (G:10.25% B:0.19%)
20.65% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.567...+0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 52 seconds
4.Rollout17/5(2)eq: +0.556 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
78.77% (G:10.36% B:0.30%)
21.23% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.552...+0.559) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 24 seconds
5.Rollout17/6(2) 7/5eq: +0.546 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
77.76% (G:7.56% B:0.19%)
22.24% (G:0.47% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.543...+0.549) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 23 seconds
6.Rollout18/5 7/6eq: +0.538 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
77.81% (G:10.27% B:0.28%)
22.19% (G:0.90% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.535...+0.541) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 08 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16585226
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/5.

9/5 keeps my prime in the most flexible manner. At a different score such as Gammon Go for me rather than Gammon Save, I’d consider messing around with trapping ideas, where I’d try to force my opponents to hit me and then hope to later force them to break their anchor with hopes to close out 2 or better yet 3 checkers. But at Gammon Save, these ideas are rejected by me.



USBGF Members: 53 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCE-----------bbbcbcC--a-:1:-1:-1:65:7:9:0:11:10
to play 65

1.xgRollout17/2 7/1eq: +0.591
Player:
Opponent:
80.12% (G:9.08% B:0.12%)
19.88% (G:0.55% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.589...+0.594) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 50 seconds
2.playedRollout18/3 8/2eq: +0.570 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
78.80% (G:5.72% B:0.07%)
21.20% (G:0.30% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.568...+0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout18/2 7/2eq: +0.569 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
79.07% (G:7.58% B:0.10%)
20.93% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.566...+0.571) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16585226
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 8/2.

This is an ugly roll, but at least it is 11 pips. Even at the score, if my opponents had crushed to a 2 point board, I’d try to spring a trap later with 7/2 7/1, but I have doubts that’s best vs. a 3 point board. I think I recall trap plays vs the 21 point anchor in this book. Mike Corbett’s Book

Anyhow, here I wimp with 8/3 8/2.



USBGF Members: 64 21/11


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 92
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCE-------A---bb-cbcBaaa-:1:-1:-1:62:7:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout17/1 5/3eq: +0.495
Player:
Opponent:
75.24% (G:6.13% B:0.08%)
24.76% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.493...+0.497) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout19/7 9/3eq: +0.434 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
72.31% (G:5.82% B:0.17%)
27.69% (G:0.59% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.432...+0.437) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16585226
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/1 5/3.

7/1 5/3 is clear to keep as much blockade as possible, and to make points in my board so I can later attack a lone checker on my 4 point if one remains.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCE-------A---bb-bbbBbab-:1:-1:1:51:7:9:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=aADC-BB--------bcbbcbC----:1:-1:1:42:7:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout15/3 5/1eq: -0.642
Player:
Opponent:
17.45% (G:0.45% B:0.00%)
82.55% (G:11.36% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.646...-0.638) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 3/1eq: -0.720 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
13.70% (G:0.30% B:0.05%)
86.30% (G:13.81% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.724...-0.716) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout15/1 3/1eq: -0.729 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
13.22% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
86.78% (G:16.81% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.733...-0.725) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 09 seconds
4.Rollout16/4 6/2eq: -0.741 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
12.66% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
87.34% (G:17.59% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.745...-0.738) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 50 seconds
5.Rollout16/2 5/3eq: -0.779 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:
10.80% (G:0.24% B:0.00%)
89.20% (G:23.03% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.782...-0.776) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 40 seconds
6.Rollout16/4 5/1eq: -0.786 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:
10.53% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
89.47% (G:21.18% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.790...-0.783) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87947858
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 5/3 5/1
[ 3] 6/4 6/2
[ 2] 6/2 3/1
[ 1] 6/4 5/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 5/3 5/1

Leaving another blot would be very bad so we need to play 5/3 5/1. No extra blots to potentially be sent back behind Neil’s 6 prime.

We need to get as much equity out of this position as we can. We are down but we are not out yet.


Steve Sax recommends: 5/3 5/1

In this position, we don’t need to have any additional checkers sent back. With three on the 21 point behind a six prime, even with a busted board, I would expect us to win about 20%.

After playing 5/3 5/1, even with the stripped six point to clear, XG has White winning 17.5% of the time.

Any other play exposes an additional blot and with no capability of counter-priming Neil or ability to make any semblance of a back game it would be foolish to make any other play which risks having another checker sent back, giving we even poorer racing chances than we already had.



Neil Kazaross: 63 no play
USBGF Members: 33 6/3(2)
Neil Kazaross: 21 no play
USBGF Members: 63 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBDF-----------bcbbcbC----:1:-1:-1:53:7:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/17eq: +0.606
Player:
Opponent:
80.75% (G:9.45% B:0.21%)
19.25% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.603...+0.609) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 18 seconds
2.xgRollout1Bar/20 6/3eq: +0.597 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
80.37% (G:9.87% B:0.16%)
19.63% (G:0.52% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.594...+0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87947858
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/17.

Eventually I expect I will want to play checkers behind their anchor in an effort to keep those 3 checkers stuck in my board for as long as possible to give me the best racing chances. However, I don’t have to do so right away. I also need to watch out how big doubles play. Everything seems OK for now if I play b/17.



USBGF Members: 53 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDF----a------bcbbcbC----:1:-1:-1:53:7:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.Rollout117/14 6/1eq: +0.611
Player:
Opponent:
80.90% (G:7.63% B:0.12%)
19.10% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.610...+0.612) - [79.5%]
Duration: 56 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout117/9eq: +0.610 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
80.82% (G:7.33% B:0.12%)
19.18% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.609...+0.611) - [19.6%]
Duration: 53 minutes 20 seconds
3.playedRollout117/12 6/3eq: +0.609 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
80.77% (G:7.28% B:0.11%)
19.23% (G:0.32% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.608...+0.610) - [0.9%]
Duration: 46 minutes 58 seconds
4.Rollout217/12 9/6eq: +0.605 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
80.60% (G:7.78% B:0.16%)
19.40% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.602...+0.608) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87947858
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87947858
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 17/12 6/3.

Again I don’t think there’s much difference between the top few plays. This time I’ll transpose to what I could have had if I played 6/3 last turn. I’ll play 17/12 6/3 and hopefully I don’t roll the awkward looking 44.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 114
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDF---------a-bcbbbbCa---:1:-1:1:15:7:9:0:11:10
to play 15

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 114
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aCC-BBB-------bcbbcbC----:1:-1:1:65:7:9:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout17/2 7/1* eq: -0.697
Player:
Opponent:
14.82% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
85.18% (G:13.92% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.701...-0.693) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout17/1* 6/1eq: -0.710 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
14.26% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)
85.74% (G:13.24% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.713...-0.706) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 28 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3053670
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 7/2 7/1*
[ 1] 7/1* 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/2 7/1*

Over the board I would hit 7/2 7/1* and hope that Neil would enter and then roll large non-escaping numbers that collapses his board quickly. This is the really optimistic, hope for a miracle approach but it is all we have.



Neil Kazaross: 63 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=aADC-BB--------bcbbcbC----:1:-1:1:42:7:9:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 119
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBC-BCB-a-----bbbbcbBA---:1:-1:1:41:7:9:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout122/21 6/2eq: -0.606
Player:
Opponent:
18.75% (G:0.96% B:0.08%)
81.25% (G:11.24% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.610...-0.602) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 54 seconds
2.xgRollout17/6 7/3eq: -0.631 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
17.65% (G:0.78% B:0.02%)
82.35% (G:12.12% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.635...-0.627) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89113970
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 22/21 6/2
[ 1] 6/2 3/2
[ 1] 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/21 6/2

In a prime versus prime battle, last thing we want to do is put our opponent on the bar so that they do not have 2 moves. So if anyone considered 6/1*, think again real fast.

We want to keep as much of our prime as is possible, so 6/2 has to be the play. Next it would be wise to play 22/21 safetying our checker on the 22 point.

All we need now is for Neil to roll a large number, hopefully one of his cracking numbers 66, 55 or 44.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 114
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aCC-BBB-a-----bbbbcbC----:1:-1:-1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout116/9eq: +0.637
Player:
Opponent:
82.44% (G:11.34% B:0.26%)
17.56% (G:0.57% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.633...+0.641) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout116/10 6/5eq: +0.623 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
81.81% (G:10.96% B:0.18%)
18.19% (G:0.66% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.619...+0.627) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89113970
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/9.

By playing 16/9, I maintain a spare on my 6 point and also give myself a playable 6, which could be important if my opponents somehow retain their bar point with a roll like 11 or 43.

16/9 looks natural and is my play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 114
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aCC-BBB-------bcbbcbC----:1:-1:1:65:7:9:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 173
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 133
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-BcBCBB-B------bbcba--AA:1:-1:1:22:7:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.Rollout1Bar/21* 24/22 8/6eq: +0.610
Player:
Opponent:
55.78% (G:24.71% B:9.81%)
44.22% (G:8.16% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.602...+0.617) - [99.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/21* 24/22 10/8eq: +0.595 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
55.27% (G:24.46% B:10.52%)
44.73% (G:7.18% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.587...+0.602) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21* 8/6(2)eq: +0.562 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
53.75% (G:24.33% B:10.17%)
46.25% (G:6.83% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.554...+0.569) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/21* 10/8(2)eq: +0.533 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
53.00% (G:23.66% B:8.54%)
47.00% (G:7.18% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.526...+0.540) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76187143
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/21* 24/22 10/8
[ 5] b/21* 10/8(2)
[ 3] b/21* 24/22 8/6
[ 1] b/23 24/22 10/8(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21* 24/22 8/6

Hitting and advancing with the first three 2’s Bar/21* 24/22 would be my play.

The last 2 is interesting. I do not think that there is much difference. If I was in a chouette I would agree with either 10/8 or 8/6.

10/8 keeps the prime which is good insurance. My preference is to play 8/6 as this cause a 61 or 64 by Neil to be awkward rolls that force him to give up either his 7 or 8 points, and play a checker to his 1 or 2 points. I think that this would be very bad for Neil so I would play 8/6.



Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23 21/15*
USBGF Members: 31 b/21


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 186
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-baBbBCBC-a------bbcbBA---:1:-1:-1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout123/21 15/14eq: -0.455
Player:
Opponent:
47.25% (G:9.58% B:1.02%)
52.75% (G:20.01% B:5.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.458...-0.452) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 22 minutes
2.Rollout123/21 6/5eq: -0.463 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
46.99% (G:9.80% B:1.03%)
53.01% (G:20.11% B:5.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.466...-0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 14 minutes
3.Rollout224/23 15/13eq: -0.550 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
44.33% (G:8.31% B:0.69%)
55.67% (G:21.82% B:6.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.556...-0.543) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89113970
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89113970
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/21 15/14.

If this were a backgame, I’d prefer the 42 game to the 41 game, although the 41 game is often underrated. But this isn’t a backgame at all, as I have fine chances to win going forward especially if my opponents cannot hop over my 4 prime.

So 23/21 is my 2, and then there’s likely little difference but 15/14 retaining my lone forward spare on the 6 point looks normal.



USBGF Members: 51 22/16
Neil Kazaross: 66 21/9*(2)
USBGF Members: 65 b/15
Neil Kazaross: 21/10*
USBGF Members: 53 b/22 8/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-C-BCBB--a---abbbcbBA---:1:-1:-1:11:7:9:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout114/10eq: +0.153
Player:
Opponent:
66.22% (G:16.55% B:0.95%)
33.78% (G:8.57% B:1.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.147...+0.160) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout124/23(2) 10/8eq: +0.092 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
63.25% (G:14.22% B:1.19%)
36.75% (G:8.64% B:1.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.087...+0.097) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 39 seconds
3.Rollout124/23(2) 14/13 10/9eq: +0.089 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
63.06% (G:13.97% B:1.10%)
36.94% (G:8.59% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.084...+0.094) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 37 seconds
4.Rollout124/23(2) 10/9 6/5eq: +0.086 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
62.99% (G:13.18% B:1.08%)
37.01% (G:8.69% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.081...+0.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout124/23(2) 14/12eq: +0.060 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
62.92% (G:12.73% B:0.63%)
37.08% (G:9.92% B:1.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.055...+0.065) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 35 seconds
6.Rollout124/23(2) 14/13 6/5eq: +0.055 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
62.78% (G:13.62% B:0.79%)
37.22% (G:10.05% B:1.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.049...+0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 14 seconds
7.Rollout124/23 14/12 10/9eq: -0.014 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:
62.36% (G:13.44% B:1.06%)
37.64% (G:13.07% B:1.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.020...-0.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 47 seconds
8.Rollout124/23 14/13 10/8eq: -0.019 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent:
62.25% (G:14.44% B:1.32%)
37.75% (G:13.18% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.024...-0.013) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 55 seconds
9.Rollout124/23 10/7eq: -0.020 (-0.174)
Player:
Opponent:
62.29% (G:13.73% B:1.21%)
37.71% (G:13.31% B:1.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.027...-0.014) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89113970
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/10.

This is a battle of primes, and usually the first order of business is to make an actual full prime. Then I can hope my opponents roll something to self destruct, or that I can move a back checker. If I cannot hop out my spare on my 6 point may provide me a few critical pip to wait for my opponent’s 2nd roll which usually will bust their structure if they are still primed.

Alternatives like making the 23 point and playing 10/8 can work out fine if they don’t hop a 6 soon, but I could still crack even after advancing my anchor. So it seems clear to make 6 in a row.



USBGF Members: 33 8/2(2)
Neil Kazaross: 53 24/16


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 119
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBC-BCB-a-----bbbbcbBA---:1:-1:1:41:7:9:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-02-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 174
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--baEBD-B------bbdbA--A-:1:-1:1:33:7:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/5*(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.831
Player:
Opponent:
65.10% (G:26.45% B:8.14%)
34.90% (G:5.73% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.824...+0.838) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 8/5*(2) 6/3eq: +0.787 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
66.33% (G:23.03% B:5.58%)
33.67% (G:7.94% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.780...+0.794) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 8/5* 6/3(2)eq: +0.622 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:
60.91% (G:20.18% B:5.30%)
39.09% (G:9.03% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.615...+0.629) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
4.Rollout124/21 10/7 8/5*(2) eq: +0.612 (-0.219)
Player:
Opponent:
59.94% (G:20.66% B:4.87%)
40.06% (G:8.56% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.606...+0.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
5.Rollout124/21 8/5*(3) eq: +0.550 (-0.281)
Player:
Opponent:
57.83% (G:19.67% B:4.65%)
42.17% (G:9.97% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.543...+0.556) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76187143
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 8/5*(2) 6/3(2)
[11] 24/21 8/5(2) 6/3
[ 2] 24/21 10/7 8/5*(2)
[ 1] 24/21 8/5(3)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5*(2) 6/3(2)

The first two 3’s should be played 8/5*(2), putting the checker on the bar and making another inner board point.

If our checker was back on the 24 point, then I would play 24/21(2) in a heartbeat (after carefully considering the alternatives of course). But as we have one checker already at the edge of the prime, we can afford to be more aggressive and make another inner board point with 6/3(2).



Neil Kazaross: 42 b/21 6/4*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 173
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 133
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-BcBCBB-B------bbcba--AA:1:-1:1:22:7:9:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-01-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 183
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ba-b-EBD-B-a----badb--A-A:1:-1:1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout1Bar/22eq: +0.415
Player:
Opponent:
53.77% (G:17.00% B:3.60%)
46.23% (G:13.12% B:1.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.412...+0.418) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 40 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/24 23/21eq: +0.407 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
53.28% (G:17.06% B:3.86%)
46.72% (G:13.16% B:1.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.404...+0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 58 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/23 8/7eq: +0.374 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
51.23% (G:17.49% B:3.54%)
48.77% (G:12.67% B:1.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.367...+0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40192569
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40192569
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] b/24 23/21
[10] b/22
[ 9] b/23 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 23/21

Our biggest issue now is making sure we have mobility and flexibility, which means we must not get stuck behind the possible 4 prime that Neil is building. For that reason I want to make sure that we get over it with the maximum number of rolls, therefore I would play bar/24 23/21 so that we can escape with any 5 or 6.

This will leave us vulnerable to being attacked, but if Neil does that, he is using up his timing and I would not mind spending some time on the bar, especially if Neil gets stuck behind our broken 4 prime. If Neil gets into a hitting battle with us and we hit him, his forward position will not be pretty. After the roll Neil will be behind 36 pips, this is not a lot of timing to play a back game.

So, we need to give ourselves the best chance of getting into the outfield, getting into a hitting battle may not be that bad, and if we spend time on the bar, it will hurt Neil’s timing.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 183
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ba-b-EBD-B-a----badbA--A-:1:-1:-1:63:7:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout123/20 13/7eq: -0.385
Player:
Opponent:
46.14% (G:11.44% B:1.21%)
53.86% (G:15.38% B:2.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.391...-0.378) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/7eq: -0.445 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
44.00% (G:10.83% B:1.09%)
56.00% (G:16.23% B:1.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.451...-0.439) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
3.Rollout123/14eq: -0.487 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
44.07% (G:9.42% B:1.31%)
55.93% (G:18.40% B:4.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.494...-0.479) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
4.Rollout113/7 6/3eq: -0.510 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:
43.86% (G:10.28% B:1.18%)
56.14% (G:19.38% B:5.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.518...-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
5.Rollout113/4* eq: -0.574 (-0.189)
Player:
Opponent:
42.46% (G:10.61% B:1.28%)
57.54% (G:21.16% B:6.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.581...-0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76187143
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/20 13/7.

13/7 makes a nice 4 prime, so now I have to find a 3. I need to concentrate on trying to escape checkers from my opponents’ board, and the best way to do that seems to be to diversify escaping rolls with 23/20. My checker on the 20 point may get attacked but if pointed on, the USBGF Members may have broken a point and if hit loose I have many return shots.

This is a common situation. My 10 forward checkers are nearly as well placed as I could reasonably hope for (although I’d happily play 6/4* if I could) so I should just move my back checkers.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 174
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--baEBD-B------bbdbA--A-:1:-1:1:33:7:9:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-01-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 188
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--b-E-DAB-cBa--c-d----A-:1:-1:1:62:7:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 9/7eq: +0.501
Player:
Opponent:
57.04% (G:18.03% B:3.82%)
42.96% (G:8.19% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.495...+0.508) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
2.Rollout124/16eq: +0.442 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
56.28% (G:15.83% B:3.33%)
43.72% (G:10.36% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.436...+0.448) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40192569
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] 13/7 9/7
[ 1] 24/16
[ 1] 24/22 9/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 9/7

If Neil is playing a 14 backgame, we need to build a prime in front of his anchors. If he rolls a 1, will he hit us? If he does, he removes some of his timing. We will be ahead in the race by 55 pips after the roll. So we do not mind being hit, and building as good a prime as we can in front of Neil’s anchors is good.

There does not seem to be any viable alternative so I will go with 13/7 9/7.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 188
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 133
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--b-EBD-B-cAa--c-d----A-:1:-1:-1:51:7:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout113/12* 12/7eq: -0.513
Player:
Opponent:
43.25% (G:9.52% B:1.23%)
56.75% (G:18.90% B:4.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.520...-0.506) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.xgRollout113/8 13/12* eq: -0.528 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
41.11% (G:8.65% B:1.01%)
58.89% (G:17.52% B:3.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.535...-0.521) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: -0.541 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
42.89% (G:7.26% B:0.82%)
57.11% (G:19.95% B:5.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.548...-0.535) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
4.Rollout113/12* 11/6eq: -0.559 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
39.46% (G:8.16% B:0.89%)
60.54% (G:17.41% B:4.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.566...-0.553) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40192569
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12*/7.

My opponents have only a 1 point board and don’t yet have a strong blocking structure, so I am most certainly not committed to a back game and can win going forward. Therefore, I’ll play 13/12*, and look for the best 5. Coming out 21/16 is an invitation to be gammoned if things go at all wrong. 11/6 is craven. So I must choose between 13/8 which looks stacked and ugly, or the more aggressive 12/7 which would be automatic if this weren’t a Gammon Save score. My Gammon Cost is 1 so extra wins gained trade evenly with extra gammons lost. After 12/7, 16 rolls hit me, but my opponents have only a 1 point board, so I am not terribly worried. 20 rolls miss, and then I can often get some offense going. The resulting position looks like a backgammon position to me and sees worth the risk compared to 13/8. Note that 13/8 is hit by 44, so I only leave 15 more slots.

I think I need to chance 12/7 which also is more complicated. I think I gain more wins from 12/7 than added gammon losses it costs me.



USBGF Members: 66 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 182
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--b-EBD-B-b-a--cad----AA:1:-1:-1:63:7:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout111/5 8/5eq: -0.323
Player:
Opponent:
48.77% (G:14.17% B:1.83%)
51.23% (G:14.90% B:2.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.329...-0.316) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/7eq: -0.362 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
44.91% (G:10.10% B:1.08%)
55.09% (G:13.01% B:1.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.368...-0.356) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: -0.396 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
45.52% (G:11.88% B:1.16%)
54.48% (G:15.32% B:3.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.403...-0.389) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40192569
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/5 8/5.

My back checkers aren’t terribly constrained, so rather than 24/21 13/7, I prefer to make my 5 point which now leaves only 13 return shots. Hopefully I can have a 4 prime soon which may force the USBGF Members to play awkwardly if they can’t hop over it. 13/10 13/7 is also possible, but doesn’t make my best point, and leaves 5 fly shots.



USBGF Members: 62 b/23 24/18*
Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23 13/7*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 183
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ba-b-EBD-B-a----badb--A-A:1:-1:1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-01-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 188
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--b-E-DAB-cBa--c-d----A-:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 57.75% (G:19.45% B:3.11%) 58.13% (G:18.28% B:4.45%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 42.25% (G:8.40% B:0.70%) 41.87% (G:7.95% B:0.85%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.241 +0.828
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.817 (-0.011)±0.005 (+0.812..+0.822)
played Double/Take:+0.828±0.006 (+0.822..+0.834)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.172)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80956063
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:99.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 hours 51 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] Double
[ 8] No Double


Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: Double

Well we know it is a cube because in the previous discussion, I went through Neil’s replies to our 55 and determined that we would have a cube after any reply from Neil.

That being said, why is it a double?

Well the basic theme behind doubling at “four away/two away” is can you win a doubled gammon and the match.

And even though we have no additional inner board points and Neil has two anchors in our board, it’s still a double because we want to lose our market.

It may seem like we don’t have any market losers, but we can lose our market in one of two ways.

Either we roll something so good that improves our position to the level of “double/drop” or Neil rolls something so poor that it also reaches the plateau of “double/drop”.

In Extreme Gammon, if you go to (“dice distribution”–details–expanded) you can see all the sequences of White rolling and Black’s reply and determine the equity for White after each combination.

You can see a lot of (1.000) equities where we have lost our market and very few where our equity is less than .500. And while that’s not that easy to determine over the board, simply visualize how the positions will look after each sequence.

You don’t have to attribute an equity to each of those as that would be unnecessarily burdensome but just go through them quickly and get a sense of how the position will look.

With practice this will become easier as time goes on and you will get a good sense of when to double whether it’s “4 away/2 away” or any other relevant score.


Neil Kazaross takes.

A reasonably common situation for an early advantage is that the leader has what I call a 60-20 game. This means that the leader’s total wins is about 60% and his total gammon wins is about 20%.
If that were the case here, his total of wins and gammons would be 80% and per the Rule of 80 at this score, I’d have a borderline drop/take.

Let’s look deeply at the position. While I have 4 checkers back, two of them are on a good anchor. The USBGF Members have a checker far back that may allow me to develop counterplay going forward and quite a few rolls will leave me a direct shot and a chance to send a 2nd checker back. While a backgame is an option for me, I am most certainly not committed to playing one noting that the USBGF Members have only a 1 point board and nothing yet resembling a prime to restrain my back checkers.

So will I lose about 20% gammons from here? I think maybe, but that would be the top of the range I’d expect. Can I lose 60% total games? I think probably not, but perhaps and again that is the top of the range I’d expect. So we have a “maybe” for gammons lost and a “probably not” for my estimate of games lost.

This means that the USBGF Members probably don’t win a total of 80% games + gammons and I think it very unlikely that they can win more than that which would give me a proper pass. As the worst case I estimate from here leaves me with a flip a coin decision, I have to take this cube. In addition, play from here is often rather complicated.

I refer The Reader’s again to Neil’s Rule of 80.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 188
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--b-E-DAB-cBa--c-d----A-:1:-1:1:62:7:9:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-01-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 179
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ba---E-CAA-cCaa-c-d----AA:0:0:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout1Bar/15* 15/10 13/8eq: +0.929
Player:
Opponent:
59.84% (G:23.18% B:3.23%)
40.16% (G:8.10% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.919...+0.938) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/15* 15/10 9/4eq: +0.796 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:
58.55% (G:19.82% B:2.80%)
41.45% (G:9.63% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.783...+0.808) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/15* 8/3(2)eq: +0.764 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:
54.96% (G:22.30% B:5.67%)
45.04% (G:11.97% B:1.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.749...+0.779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/15* 15/10 8/3eq: +0.715 (-0.214)
Player:
Opponent:
56.83% (G:19.17% B:3.13%)
43.17% (G:10.70% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.701...+0.729) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/15* 15/5eq: +0.609 (-0.320)
Player:
Opponent:
55.02% (G:18.54% B:3.03%)
44.98% (G:13.41% B:2.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.594...+0.623) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
6.Rollout1Bar/20 13/3 8/3eq: +0.572 (-0.357)
Player:
Opponent:
51.19% (G:19.35% B:4.25%)
48.81% (G:15.43% B:2.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.558...+0.585) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80956063
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] b/15*/10 13/8
[ 1] b/15*/10 9/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/15*/10 13/8

We have to hit with bar/15*. Then we could make our 3 point, but it is better to consolidate and bring another checker into the zone. Although this strips our 13 point we will have 12 checkers in the zone ready to attack or make inner board points, which is what we want to do at this score.

Also I expect to be doubling next turn, so there is no way I am going to give Neil more fly shots from the bar.


Steve Sax recommends: b/15*/10 13/8

Here we can accomplish three goals in one move.

We can hit (b/15*), and we can escape and make a new point (15/10). You can’t ask for much more than that other than making an inner board point.

There doesn’t even seem to be a reasonable second choice as hitting and making the three point is far too messy.

What we accomplish with b/15*/10 13/8 is a setup for a double after any reply by Neil. Since the USBGF Members need four and Neil needs two, we don’t need much inspiration to send the cube when Neil has four checkers back, even though we have yet to make an inner board point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 194
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=aba---E-DAB-cBa--c-d----A-:0:0:-1:42:7:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 23/21eq: -0.835
Player:
Opponent:
41.86% (G:7.87% B:0.81%)
58.14% (G:18.41% B:4.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.849...-0.820) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 24/20eq: -1.000 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:
37.61% (G:6.52% B:0.62%)
62.39% (G:24.25% B:6.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.009...-0.991) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 13/11eq: -1.000 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:
37.83% (G:7.07% B:0.72%)
62.17% (G:25.23% B:6.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.009...-0.991) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 13/9eq: -1.000 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:
37.58% (G:6.79% B:0.79%)
62.42% (G:24.14% B:7.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 80956063
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 23/21.

A nice roll for me, as I can make an advanced anchor and cut down on the number of gammons lost while retaining decent winning chances.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 188
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--b-E-DAB-cBa--c-d----A-:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-01-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 179
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ba---E-CAA-cCaa-c-d----AA:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 53.83% (G:16.77% B:2.55%) 54.01% (G:16.42% B:3.34%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 46.17% (G:13.72% B:1.90%) 45.99% (G:13.44% B:1.92%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.037 +0.550
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.558±0.006 (+0.552..+0.564)
xg Double/Take:+0.550 (-0.008)±0.007 (+0.543..+0.556)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.442)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.8%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5993284
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:96.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 day 06 hours 39 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] No Double
[ 8] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

Although this is close, we are on the bar with 3 blots scattered around the board. I would not double this, but I think it will be a lot closer than people imagine.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 179
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ba---E-CAA-cCaa-c-d----AA:0:0:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-01-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CAA-dCa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:54:7:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20* 20/15eq: +0.617
Player:
Opponent:
55.16% (G:16.87% B:2.22%)
44.84% (G:12.98% B:1.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.604...+0.631) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 50 minutes
2.Rollout124/20* 13/8eq: +0.549 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
53.15% (G:17.06% B:3.98%)
46.85% (G:13.26% B:2.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.533...+0.565) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 43 minutes
3.Rollout124/20* 9/4eq: +0.465 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
51.98% (G:15.69% B:2.78%)
48.02% (G:14.67% B:2.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.450...+0.480) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 03 minutes
4.Rollout110/5 9/5eq: +0.454 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent:
51.48% (G:16.04% B:2.10%)
48.52% (G:15.36% B:2.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.442...+0.467) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5993284
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 24/20*/15
[ 4] 24/20* 13/8
[ 4] 10/5 9/5
[ 1] 24/20* 10/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20*/15

We want to score gammons, therefore we need to hit and make inner board points. We also want to stop our opponent from making inner board points. All of this points to hitting 24/20*.

So how about the 5? if we play 13/8 we bring another checker into the zone which is useful for making inner board points. It also gives us good 6’s and if we are hit in the outfield from the bar, we could anchor on the opponent’s 5 point. Even at Gammon go, a high anchor is very useful for us as it still stops two of our opponent’s Game plays – Attacking and Priming. If anchors were not so valuable, if we were playing DMP, then continuing 20/15 would be correct.

Again, we should be thinking about whether to double next turn.


Steve Sax recommends: 24/20*/15

Between making the five point or hitting, I would rather hit. If we make the five point, we’re making a good point, but there are two main problems in making that move.

First of all, you allow Neil to equalize the position by making his own five point. And secondly, our builder distribution is weak as we would have used our flexible builders on the ten and nine points to make the point, while still maintaining a stack of checkers on our six-point.

I prefer the hit because it accomplishes one and a half goals. It hits (one goal) and it partially escapes (half a goal).

I also prefer 24/20*/15 over the 24/20* 13/8 because we maintain a spare checker on the mid point. Also, by running out all the way we duplicate Neil’s entering and hitting numbers, whereas if we stay on the 20 point, we give Neil some good sixes to hit us back.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 184
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab----E-CAA-dCaA-c-d----A-:0:0:-1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/10* eq: -0.549
Player:
Opponent:
45.94% (G:13.23% B:2.00%)
54.06% (G:16.35% B:3.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.564...-0.533) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 24/22eq: -0.807 (-0.259)
Player:
Opponent:
39.26% (G:9.37% B:1.10%)
60.74% (G:15.23% B:2.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.822...-0.793) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 13/11eq: -0.874 (-0.326)
Player:
Opponent:
39.75% (G:9.35% B:1.31%)
60.25% (G:17.15% B:3.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.889...-0.859) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5993284
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 13/10*.

Bar/23 13/10* allows me to return hit nearly safely with hopes to make a good point next turn.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 179
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ba---E-CAA-cCaa-c-d----AA:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-01-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CAA-dCa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 53.81% (G:17.29% B:2.43%) 53.92% (G:16.80% B:3.44%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 46.19% (G:13.87% B:1.86%) 46.08% (G:13.64% B:1.89%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.037 +0.563
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.563 (0.000)±0.006 (+0.557..+0.569)
xg Double/Take:+0.563±0.006 (+0.557..+0.570)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.437)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5993284
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:53.6%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 day 06 hours 58 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] No Double
[14] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We need to double this. Neil’s Gammon value goes from around 0.9 to 0, and ours goes from 0.5 to 1.

I have a student who is mathematically challenged, my advice to him at 4a 2a is double early and win a Gammon. So let’s double and then work on winning that Gammon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CAA-dCa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:54:7:9:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-01-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:7:9:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.398
Player:
Opponent:
50.43% (G:15.35% B:1.69%)
49.57% (G:16.07% B:3.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.385...+0.411) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/9eq: +0.350 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
50.68% (G:14.15% B:1.21%)
49.32% (G:16.23% B:2.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.336...+0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 13/10eq: +0.343 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
50.81% (G:13.35% B:1.14%)
49.19% (G:14.94% B:2.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.329...+0.357) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 43 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36134762
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 13/10 13/9
[ 5] 24/21 13/9
[ 1] 24/20 13/10
[ 1] 13/9 8/5
[ 1] 13/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

We are at a score that I call “Super Gammon Go.” Meaning that I want to make plays that will result in me winning a Gammon, hopefully with the cube on 2.

The best way to play for gammons at this score is 13/10 13/9. As this is my normal play of 43, I would make that play here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CAA-eC---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.565
Player:
Opponent:
45.83% (G:14.38% B:1.73%)
54.17% (G:16.59% B:3.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.580...-0.550) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.699 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent:
45.12% (G:14.09% B:2.37%)
54.88% (G:18.75% B:1.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.713...-0.685) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87255007
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 6/5.

I think the clearly best play is to slot regardless of score. This duplicates 4’s, and if not hit, should allow me to keep pace with the board building. Note that by splitting, I am also subject to getting gammoned, as I may end up getting attacked in a turn or two if I cannot re-anchor after my opponents close a new point or two.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CAA-dCa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-01-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBaB-B-ABbBaA-c-cb--a-A:0:0:1:00:6:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.42% (G:27.06% B:2.16%) 65.34% (G:28.58% B:2.11%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.58% (G:10.37% B:1.52%) 34.66% (G:11.59% B:2.14%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.360 +1.188
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.765 (-0.235)±0.010 (+0.755..+0.775)
     Double/Take:+1.188 (+0.188)±0.014 (+1.175..+1.202)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] Double
[ 4] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We have a lot of hitting numbers here, and even some less than average numbers which do not but hit still have positive equity.

We also give Neil a dead cube — so we get to double Neil and then never have to worry about the cube again for this game.

Easy cube.


Neil Kazaross passes.

My take point here is low if I cannot lose a gammon. Lets estimate it. If I pass I have about 67%, and if I take lose I have 60%. So by taking I risk 7 to gain 33. 7/(7+33) = 17.5%. So I can take very loosely in a race.

But what is my gammon cost (GC)? If I lose a single with the cube on 2 I have 60% but if I lose a gammon I have only 32%. So losing a G costs me 28%. Winning the game with the cube on 2 means that I have 100% vs 60% for a loss for a gain of 40%. So my GC is 28/40 = 70%.

So let’s estimate that I can win 35% but lose a gammon 25%. Now that gammon adjusts to 35% – (25% x 70%) = 17.5% so this would mean a borderline drop/take. However, there a couple % backgammons to be lost here and I suspect that at this score, since my opponents don’t fear a gammon loss and will just pound me on their 5 point, I may lose more than 25% gammons and perhaps 35% is optimistic for my wins.

So all in all, I suspect a clear pass here at the score.


USBGF Members win one point, and Neil Kazaross leads 2-away/4-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:7:9:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 1/24 815p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-01-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bAB-C-B-ABcBa--b-eb--A-A:0:0:1:64:6:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout1Bar/15eq: -0.012
Player:
Opponent:
48.56% (G:13.99% B:0.78%)
51.44% (G:25.23% B:4.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.026...+0.002) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 10/4eq: -0.077 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
46.30% (G:13.49% B:0.72%)
53.70% (G:22.34% B:4.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.089...-0.065) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/15
[12] b/21 10/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/15

If we then play 10/4, we give ourselves another covering number, but now Neil can hit us with 4’s and 2’s. If he hits us with 2’s, he gets to unstack his very stacked 6 point -– which is what he wants to do.

If we run into the outfield with 21/15, Neil hits us with 1’s and 3’s, but notice his 1’s are duplicated. This also is a distraction play as he has to deal with our checker on his 10 point. In one of Bill Robertie’s books he advised you to leave blots in front of stripped intermediate points.

So bar/15 for me.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bAB-C-B-ABcBaA-b-eb--A--:0:0:-1:54:6:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/8 6/2* eq: -0.331
Player:
Opponent:
43.94% (G:18.75% B:3.02%)
56.06% (G:16.39% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.343...-0.319) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
2.Rollout111/2* eq: -0.362 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
43.25% (G:19.02% B:2.15%)
56.75% (G:15.83% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.374...-0.350) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90917921
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 6/2*.

I have to hit 6/2* to both unstack and also to make it more difficult for my opponents to consolidate their blots and to cover their 3 point. Now I have to find a 5. 23/18 might be the DMP play, but looks to be too risky at the score with no anchor and 4 blots.

11/6 is safest now, but stacks again and, as Malcolm Davis has said, “It hurts my eyes.”

13/8 seems better although I fear the extra blot. However, it only leaves 31 and 41 as extra hitting rolls, and my opponents might choose to cover their 3 point with 31. Noting my anchor, and that I often have return shots I think this is the way to go.



USBGF Members: 32 b/23* 6/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 166
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-bBB-B-B-ABbBaA-c-db--A--:0:0:-1:54:6:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 6/2* eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
34.59% (G:10.59% B:1.46%)
65.41% (G:26.90% B:1.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.009...-0.991) - [25.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 11/7eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
33.10% (G:8.17% B:1.27%)
66.90% (G:25.16% B:1.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.008...-0.992) - [25.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/16eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
30.69% (G:6.65% B:0.75%)
69.31% (G:24.45% B:1.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [25.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/20 8/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
29.48% (G:6.41% B:0.89%)
70.52% (G:36.00% B:2.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-1.010...-0.990) - [25.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 87380703
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 6/2*.

Since I cannot safety a blot, I might as well hit 6/2* in hopes of preventing an attack on the blot on my 20 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBaB-B-ABbBaA-c-cb--a-A:0:0:1:00:6:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-01-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aaB-C-C-ABdB---bbe---AA-:0:0:1:54:6:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20 8/3* eq: +0.415
Player:
Opponent:
56.27% (G:17.30% B:0.65%)
43.73% (G:13.96% B:1.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.403...+0.426) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.Rollout18/3* 6/2* eq: +0.350 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
52.79% (G:20.56% B:0.70%)
47.21% (G:16.54% B:2.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.339...+0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
3.Rollout110/6 8/3* eq: +0.333 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
53.65% (G:17.90% B:0.64%)
46.35% (G:14.78% B:2.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.322...+0.344) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
4.Rollout124/15eq: +0.324 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
55.59% (G:14.40% B:0.59%)
44.41% (G:13.64% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.312...+0.336) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 24/20 8/3*
[ 7] 24/15
[ 2] 8/3* 6/2*
[ 1] 24/20 10/5
[ 1] 10/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20 8/3*

It sure looks tempting to double hit – the Double Tiger play as Michi would term it. But if we do that, we have stripped our 6 point, and that is not advisable.

Neil has made his bar point, so we need to split 24/20. Then to keep him off balance and potentially start a blitz, we should attack 8/3*. This is a good example of what I call the ‘Cautious blitz’.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aAB-C-B-ABdB---bbeA--A--:0:0:-1:22:6:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/11 7/5*(2) eq: -0.080
Player:
Opponent:
50.08% (G:21.00% B:3.14%)
49.92% (G:14.39% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.093...-0.067) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 7/5*(2) 6/4eq: -0.181 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
49.14% (G:19.13% B:3.91%)
50.86% (G:16.14% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.194...-0.168) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 7/5* 6/4(2)eq: -0.205 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
48.78% (G:19.06% B:3.64%)
51.22% (G:18.05% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.218...-0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 13/11 7/5*(2).

Useful counterattacking doubles from the bar have turned the initiative in many games. Here I am happy to do nothing fancy. I just enter and point and bring down a builder.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bAB-C-B-ABcBa--b-eb--A-A:0:0:1:64:6:9:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10