USBGF OLM 2017-10-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:3:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.011
Player:
Opponent:
49.81% (G:15.69% B:0.92%)
50.19% (G:14.12% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.006...+0.016) - [65.9%]
Duration: 17 hours 29 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 13/9eq: +0.010 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
49.95% (G:14.56% B:0.84%)
50.05% (G:13.77% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.004...+0.015) - [34.1%]
Duration: 17 hours 43 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 13/10eq: +0.000 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
49.87% (G:14.10% B:0.78%)
50.13% (G:13.76% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.005...+0.006) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 hours 45 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50723034
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 24/21 13/9
[13] 13/10 13/9
[ 5] 24/20 13/10


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10 13/9

At a normal match score I play the money move of 13/10 13/9. For money 13/10 13/9 or 24/21 13/9 or 24/20 13/10 are even.

Over the board I would note that we are ahead in the match by 1 point and consider 24/21 13/9 which is probably correct. However, I would still play 13/10 13/9 as I prefer the more aggressive play and against Neil I want to be more aggressive.

Also I know the 3rd roll replies against 13/9 13/10 better than I know the 3rd roll replies against 24/21 13/9.

13/10 13/9 for me.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:-1:64:3:2:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/14eq: -0.228
Player:
Opponent:
45.56% (G:10.03% B:0.44%)
54.44% (G:16.06% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.232...-0.223) - [59.8%]
Duration: 15 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.229 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
44.79% (G:12.67% B:0.49%)
55.21% (G:16.68% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.233...-0.224) - [40.2%]
Duration: 13 hours 19 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50723034
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/14.

This one is easy to remember but I cannot explain why the clear differences. If they play 43 24/20 13/10, you make the 2 point, but if they play 43 24/21 13/9, you run.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 157
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-CA-aeD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:63:3:2:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-16

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 175
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cCcHD-------------bbbb-a-:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout15/4 2/Offeq: +0.122
Player:
Opponent:
56.11% (G:39.79% B:23.80%)
43.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.117...+0.128) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout15/2eq: +0.106 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
55.28% (G:39.49% B:22.34%)
44.72% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.100...+0.111) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 5/4 2/0
[ 9] 5/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/4 2/0

The ace is forced, 5/4. If there were any serious possibility we could get in trouble and leave a shot with a later 2, then we might consider “smoothing” with 4/2, but we have so many 2s to play from the 4 point that it’s too unlikely to worry about. The bigger deal is to have as many checkers off as possible if we leave a shot and get hit, so that if he succeeds in containing and closing it out, we will have our best chance of still winning the game. 5/4 2/off looks clear.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 175
             
11 point match
              pip: 55
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cBcIC-------------bbbb-a-:1:-1:-1:65:9:9:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout124/19 22/16eq: -0.102
Player:
Opponent:
44.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.08% (G:38.70% B:21.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.104...-0.099) - [55.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 22/17eq: -0.102 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
44.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.11% (G:38.79% B:21.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.104...-0.100) - [32.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.xgRollout124/13eq: -0.103 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
44.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.16% (G:38.66% B:21.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.106...-0.101) - [8.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
4.Rollout222/11eq: -0.107 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
44.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.35% (G:38.80% B:22.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.113...-0.101) - [2.5%]
Duration: 13 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/19 22/16.

I think it is now time two move both spares out which makes it virtually certain that I won’t crash even a little bit. I don’t see much difference between the two plays, but 24/19 22/16 looks better diversified that having the checkers next to each other on the 17 and 18 points.



USBGF Members: 55 5/0(3) 4/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 36
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBbH-a--a---------bbbb-a-:1:-1:-1:42:9:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout122/18 19/17eq: -0.392
Player:
Opponent:
30.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.58% (G:52.29% B:38.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.394...-0.389) - [47.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.playedRollout122/18 16/14eq: -0.392 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
30.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.59% (G:52.36% B:38.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.394...-0.389) - [44.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
3.Rollout122/16eq: -0.393 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
30.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.67% (G:52.65% B:38.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.396...-0.391) - [6.1%]
Duration: 53 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout122/20 16/12eq: -0.394 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
30.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.71% (G:52.55% B:38.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.396...-0.392) - [1.7%]
Duration: 59 minutes 55 seconds
5.Rollout122/20 19/15eq: -0.395 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
30.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.77% (G:52.67% B:38.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.398...-0.393) - [0.1%]
Duration: 56 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/18 16/14.

Things are going downhill quickly, but all is not lost. I need to activate my opponents’ blotting aces with 22/18. After that, it hardly matters, but I’ll go with 16/14 to get a checker closer to an enter and hop point if I hit a checker soon. In general the point I want next make here is my bar point.



USBGF Members: 31 4/3*/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 32
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abB-G-aa---a-------bbbb-a-:1:-1:-1:41:9:9:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 19/15eq: -0.475
Player:
Opponent:
26.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
73.75% (G:56.34% B:42.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.477...-0.473) - [97.5%]
Duration: 59 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 14/10eq: -0.478 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
26.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
73.91% (G:56.28% B:42.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.480...-0.476) - [1.5%]
Duration: 51 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24 18/14eq: -0.478 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
26.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
73.92% (G:56.36% B:42.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.480...-0.476) - [1.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 04 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/20eq: -0.506 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
24.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
75.28% (G:58.66% B:39.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.510...-0.501) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 19/15.

I want this checker to end up on the 22 point for now while retaining the 24 point. The way to get this checker on the bar to the 22 point is to enter on the 24 point. Then 19/15 looks fine and diversified to me.

I don’t want to break the 24 point and activate blotting 3’s as if I miss that shot, it is probably my last shot.



USBGF Members: 65 4/0(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 24
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cB-E--a--aa-------bbbb-a-:1:-1:-1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/22 14/13eq: -0.482
Player:
Opponent:
25.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.12% (G:55.76% B:45.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.485...-0.480) - [51.2%]
Duration: 59 minutes 33 seconds
2.xgRollout124/22 18/17eq: -0.483 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
25.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.13% (G:55.89% B:45.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.485...-0.480) - [38.9%]
Duration: 57 minutes 01 second
3.Rollout124/22 15/14eq: -0.484 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
25.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.19% (G:55.95% B:45.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.486...-0.482) - [9.9%]
Duration: 53 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 14/13.

24/22 puts a checker where I want it to enhance my chances to hit a shot, and 14/13 gives me a direct 6 to aim at my bar point which I will usually want to make.



USBGF Members: 55 4/0(4)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 8
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBaA--a--a-a------bbbb-a-:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout122/21* 18/13eq: -0.125
Player:
Opponent:
43.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.26% (G:22.15% B:15.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.129...-0.122) - [93.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.Rollout124/19 22/21*eq: -0.129 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
43.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.44% (G:21.44% B:14.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.132...-0.125) - [6.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
3.playedRollout122/21* 21/16eq: -0.133 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
43.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.66% (G:22.53% B:15.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.137...-0.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
4.Rollout222/21* 15/10eq: -0.138 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
43.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.91% (G:23.16% B:16.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.146...-0.130) - [0.1%]
Duration: 13 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout222/21* 13/8eq: -0.146 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
42.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.31% (G:25.11% B:18.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.155...-0.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/21*/16.

22/21* is heaven sent, and I slightly prefer blocking 11 for now with 21/16. I can play 24/19 and gain on 21 but get ruined by 11. However, that means 21 is the only blotting ace so I think I should wait until more aces force two blots before paying off hugely to 11.



USBGF Members: 22 b/23


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 27
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bB----a-aa-a------bbbbAa-:1:-1:-1:66:9:9:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout124/12 18/12 16/10eq: -0.145
Player:
Opponent:
42.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.27% (G:24.86% B:16.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.148...-0.142) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout124/12 18/12 13/7eq: -0.154 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
42.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.71% (G:26.12% B:17.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.157...-0.151) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.Rollout224/6 18/12eq: -0.159 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
42.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.96% (G:25.78% B:16.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.166...-0.152) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 17 seconds
4.Rollout224/12 18/12 15/9eq: -0.170 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
41.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.50% (G:26.52% B:16.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.177...-0.163) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/12 18/12 16/10.

It looks like 3 of my 6’s should be used to make my 12 point, blocking 55, and putting builders in my outfield aiming at my desired 7 and 8 points. Then I think slotting the bar point is needlessly risky and that 16/10 gives better coverage than 15/9. Also in favor of 16/10 is that if I get hit with an 8 and roll a 2 from the bar, I can return hit.

Choices to make the 12 point leave a joker 11 but this is now in exchange for 6 bad double blotting aces and if I retain the 24 point it seems that I have to misplace checkers with this 66.



USBGF Members: 32 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 123
             
11 point match
              pip: 27
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB-------a-ab-a---bbbbAa-:1:-1:-1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/8 10/8eq: -0.038
Player:
Opponent:
48.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.90% (G:20.16% B:10.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.046...-0.030) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout115/8eq: -0.164 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:
41.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.18% (G:27.31% B:19.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.171...-0.156) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout112/7 10/8eq: -0.177 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:
41.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.87% (G:28.57% B:22.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.185...-0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 53 seconds
4.Rollout115/13 12/7eq: -0.178 (-0.140)
Player:
Opponent:
41.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.88% (G:27.56% B:18.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.185...-0.171) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 04 seconds
5.Rollout113/8 12/10eq: -0.193 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
40.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.63% (G:29.50% B:19.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.200...-0.185) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 24 seconds
6.Rollout112/5eq: -0.193 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
40.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.64% (G:27.41% B:17.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.200...-0.186) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 10 seconds
7.Rollout112/10 12/7eq: -0.194 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:
40.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.71% (G:28.60% B:19.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.201...-0.187) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 11 seconds
8.Rollout110/3eq: -0.201 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent:
39.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.03% (G:27.34% B:15.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.208...-0.193) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 53 seconds
9.Rollout115/13 10/5eq: -0.209 (-0.171)
Player:
Opponent:
39.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.47% (G:28.85% B:16.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.216...-0.203) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 10/8.

I’ll make my 8 point, which adds 61 and 51 to their list of horror double blotting aces.



USBGF Members: 63 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 116
             
11 point match
              pip: 27
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB-------a--b---b-bbbbAa-:1:-1:-1:33:9:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout115/6 12/9eq: -0.134
Player:
Opponent:
43.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.72% (G:26.11% B:12.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.141...-0.128) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout115/3eq: -0.153 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
42.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.65% (G:27.40% B:11.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.160...-0.146) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout112/9 12/3eq: -0.157 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
42.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.86% (G:26.63% B:12.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.164...-0.151) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 43 seconds
4.Rollout112/6(2)eq: -0.162 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
41.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.08% (G:27.28% B:11.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.168...-0.156) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 27 seconds
5.Rollout115/9 8/2*eq: -0.169 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
41.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.47% (G:23.04% B:15.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.177...-0.162) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 09 seconds
6.Rollout124/18 12/6eq: -0.190 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
40.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.50% (G:24.35% B:8.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.197...-0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 47 seconds
7.Rollout115/9 12/9(2)eq: -0.203 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
39.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.14% (G:30.05% B:12.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.210...-0.195) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 36 seconds
8.Rollout112/9(2) 8/2*eq: -0.203 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
39.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.16% (G:25.87% B:17.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.210...-0.196) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 19 seconds
9.Rollout112/6 8/2*eq: -0.208 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
39.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.40% (G:27.12% B:18.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.215...-0.201) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 29 seconds
10.Rollout124/21 12/3eq: -0.210 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
39.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.49% (G:25.31% B:9.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.216...-0.203) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 26 seconds
11.Rollout124/18 15/9eq: -0.213 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
39.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.63% (G:26.17% B:7.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.219...-0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 02 seconds
12.Rollout124/15 12/9eq: -0.214 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
39.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.69% (G:26.83% B:7.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.221...-0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 52 seconds
13.Rollout18/2*(2)eq: -0.225 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
38.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
61.23% (G:13.56% B:9.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.231...-0.219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/6 12/9.

One issue with this type of position is that I have to keep moving my checkers towards home where, after a while, I’d prefer to just keep them where they are and wait for my opponents to roll a horror ace. Here I have to weaken some outfield coverage since making the 2 point looks to be very wrong at DMP as I really need to hit a 2nd checker. Hitting loose also looks wrong as then my opps will only have 2 blotting rolls rather than 10 and this also weakens my containment.

So 15/6 12/9 appears to be my best bet. If I am hit with 52, my overall chances to recapture the escapee don’t seem to be worse than if I am not hit. If they roll the 55 joker, I have 18 return shots. 15/3 seems too awkward so I will have to pay off to the 55 joker.



USBGF Members: 33 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 104
             
11 point match
              pip: 27
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB----------a--ab-cbbbAa-:1:-1:-1:61:9:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout19/2*eq: -0.179
Player:
Opponent:
41.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.94% (G:23.05% B:12.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.186...-0.171) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 6/5eq: -0.198 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
40.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.91% (G:27.54% B:11.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.205...-0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 47 seconds
3.xgRollout112/11 9/3eq: -0.211 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
39.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.56% (G:27.85% B:11.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.217...-0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout112/5eq: -0.220 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
39.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.98% (G:28.77% B:12.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.226...-0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/2*.

I am running out of time to keep all my checkers where I want to and wait. If I play 12/5, I give up outfield control and I don’t really want to close my board anyhow since I will only win about one game in 5 if I am forced to close my board here. If I play 9/3 6/5, my spare on the 3 point is quite misplaced.

So I will hit 9/2* and hope to be hit back so I can gain some more time to wait for the USBGF Members to break their 2 point. This would be risky at a normal score where I can lose a gammon or backgammon.



USBGF Members: 41 b/24*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 121
             
11 point match
              pip: 28
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaB----------a---b-cbbbaA-:1:-1:-1:63:9:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 8/2eq: -0.143
Player:
Opponent:
42.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.17% (G:23.51% B:15.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.150...-0.137) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/16eq: -0.196 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
40.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.81% (G:25.48% B:15.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.202...-0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/19 6/3eq: -0.207 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
39.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.34% (G:27.41% B:16.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.213...-0.200) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 26 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/19 4/1*eq: -0.211 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
39.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.56% (G:30.46% B:21.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.220...-0.203) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 02 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/19 5/2eq: -0.218 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
39.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.91% (G:29.93% B:18.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.224...-0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 33 seconds
6.Rollout1Bar/19 12/9eq: -0.219 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
39.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.97% (G:28.16% B:17.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.226...-0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
7.Rollout1Bar/19 24/21eq: -0.251 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
37.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
62.55% (G:26.73% B:13.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.258...-0.244) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 30 seconds
8.Rollout1Bar/22 24/18eq: -0.263 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
36.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
63.15% (G:27.59% B:11.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.270...-0.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 47 seconds
9.Rollout1Bar/22 12/6eq: -0.276 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
36.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
63.80% (G:32.04% B:18.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.282...-0.270) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 40 seconds
10.Rollout1Bar/19 8/5eq: -0.294 (-0.150)
Player:
Opponent:
35.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
64.68% (G:31.48% B:21.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.300...-0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 8/2.

This has worked out according to plan. I now have a 2nd checker way back for some outfield control and timing and can also cover my 2 point making most aces again bad for my opponents. It will also be easier for me to close my board from here if I do hit more checkers.



USBGF Members: 41 2/1*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 113
             
11 point match
              pip: 27
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aAAa---------a---a-cbbbbA-:1:-1:-1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 6/1*eq: +0.207
Player:
Opponent:
60.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.66% (G:6.24% B:3.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.200...+0.214) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20 5/1*eq: +0.085 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
54.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.73% (G:14.04% B:8.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.078...+0.093) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/21 12/7eq: -0.098 (-0.304)
Player:
Opponent:
45.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
54.88% (G:9.57% B:5.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.103...-0.093) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/21 22/17eq: -0.197 (-0.403)
Player:
Opponent:
40.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.83% (G:14.64% B:3.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.202...-0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/16eq: -0.200 (-0.407)
Player:
Opponent:
39.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.01% (G:14.83% B:4.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.205...-0.195) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 39 seconds
6.Rollout1Bar/20 8/4eq: -0.205 (-0.412)
Player:
Opponent:
39.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.25% (G:15.17% B:5.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.210...-0.200) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 07 seconds
7.Rollout1Bar/20 22/18eq: -0.206 (-0.412)
Player:
Opponent:
39.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.28% (G:15.40% B:3.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.211...-0.200) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 6/1*.

Unfortunately, I missed, but fortunately I have a spare 5 to hit loose with and plenty of time to leave my ace point slotted if not hit.



USBGF Members: 53 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 104
             
11 point match
              pip: 28
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AAaa--------a---a-bbbbbaA:1:-1:-1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout112/11 8/5eq: +0.204
Player:
Opponent:
60.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.78% (G:5.54% B:2.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.202...+0.207) - [76.8%]
Duration: 37 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout121/20 8/5eq: +0.203 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
60.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.85% (G:5.41% B:2.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.200...+0.206) - [21.5%]
Duration: 35 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout122/21 8/5eq: +0.201 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
60.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.97% (G:5.68% B:2.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.198...+0.203) - [1.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout18/4eq: +0.198 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
59.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.09% (G:5.78% B:2.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.195...+0.201) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout121/18 12/11eq: +0.197 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
59.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.17% (G:5.74% B:2.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.194...+0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 37 seconds
6.Rollout121/18 8/7eq: +0.196 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
59.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.19% (G:5.55% B:2.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.193...+0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 41 seconds
7.Rollout222/19 12/11eq: +0.195 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
59.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.23% (G:5.82% B:2.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.189...+0.202) - [0.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 39 seconds
8.playedRollout122/19 8/7eq: +0.194 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
59.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.30% (G:5.56% B:2.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.191...+0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 06 seconds
9.Rollout212/9 8/7eq: +0.193 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
59.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.34% (G:5.56% B:2.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.186...+0.200) - [0.1%]
Duration: 6 minutes 28 seconds
10.Rollout222/18eq: +0.192 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
59.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.39% (G:6.04% B:2.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.186...+0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds
11.Rollout222/19 21/20eq: +0.192 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
59.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.40% (G:6.01% B:2.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.185...+0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 31 seconds
12.Rollout221/17eq: +0.191 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
59.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.47% (G:6.22% B:3.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.183...+0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 17 seconds
13.Rollout212/8eq: +0.186 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
59.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.72% (G:6.24% B:3.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.179...+0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds
14.Rollout222/21 12/9eq: +0.183 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
59.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.86% (G:6.63% B:3.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.176...+0.189) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds
15.Rollout221/20 12/9eq: +0.181 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
59.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.94% (G:6.22% B:3.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.175...+0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/19 8/7.

I think it is worth the slight possible loss from being double hit to play 8/7. That means that if I am hit, I can re-hit with a missing 6 or 33. It also means that I can make my prime with a 5. A prime is (likely temporary since a prime isn’t really valuable here and builders may be more important. Then 22/19 gives me 3 more numbers to make that prime.



USBGF Members: 54 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 100
             
11 point match
              pip: 28
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AA-a-a------a----abbbbbaA:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedXG Roller++19/18 12/7eq: +0.134
Player:
Opponent:
56.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.30% (G:5.37% B:1.66%)
2.XG Roller++21/20 12/7eq: +0.134 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
56.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.30% (G:5.43% B:1.78%)
3.XG Roller++12/6eq: +0.133 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
56.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.37% (G:5.89% B:1.91%)
4.XG Roller++21/16 7/6eq: +0.130 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
56.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.49% (G:6.19% B:1.99%)
5.XG Roller++19/14 7/6eq: +0.130 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
56.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.52% (G:6.09% B:1.93%)
6.XG Roller++19/13eq: +0.128 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
56.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.59% (G:5.84% B:2.21%)
7.XG Roller++19/14 12/11eq: +0.124 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
56.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.78% (G:6.02% B:2.13%)
8.XG Roller++21/16 12/11eq: +0.120 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
56.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.99% (G:6.29% B:2.05%)
9.XG Roller++21/16 19/18eq: +0.120 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
55.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.02% (G:6.36% B:2.18%)
10.XG Roller++21/20 19/14eq: +0.119 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
55.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.04% (G:6.30% B:2.40%)
11.XG Roller++21/15eq: +0.117 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
55.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.15% (G:6.79% B:2.39%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 19/18 12/7.

Hmm… do I want this prime or do I want a builder with 12/6? Note that this builder is for use after I hit more checkers. Noting that I have no checkers close to my outer board for close coverage and would hate to see a 61 roll, I will make the prime. Then I slightly prefer 19/18 getting another checker a bit closer to home.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 94
             
11 point match
              pip: 28
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AA-a--a----------bbbbbbaA:1:-1:-1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedXG Roller++18/14eq: +0.119
Player:
Opponent:
55.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.07% (G:4.68% B:1.55%)
2.xgXG Roller++7/6 7/4eq: +0.117 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
55.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.14% (G:5.63% B:1.52%)
3.XG Roller++21/18 7/6eq: +0.117 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
55.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.16% (G:5.49% B:1.70%)
4.XG Roller++21/20 18/15eq: +0.116 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
55.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.22% (G:4.88% B:1.51%)
5.XG Roller++18/15 7/6eq: +0.115 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
55.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.26% (G:5.38% B:1.81%)
6.XG Roller++21/17eq: +0.114 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
55.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.28% (G:4.74% B:1.47%)
7.XG Roller++21/20 7/4eq: +0.110 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
55.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.48% (G:5.77% B:1.84%)
8.XG Roller++18/17 7/4eq: +0.109 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
55.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.57% (G:5.78% B:1.97%)
9.XG Roller++7/3eq: +0.083 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
54.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.86% (G:6.70% B:2.27%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/14.

18/14 sticks with my plan to put this spare on my 6 pt for now and to retain the prime for now.



USBGF Members: 53 no play

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 90
             
11 point match
              pip: 28
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AA-a------a------bbbbbbaA:1:-1:-1:53:9:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedXG Roller++14/6eq: +0.076
Player:
Opponent:
53.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.20% (G:3.38% B:0.94%)
2.XG Roller++21/18 14/9eq: +0.067 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
53.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.65% (G:3.76% B:1.09%)
3.XG Roller++14/9 7/4eq: +0.065 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
53.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.73% (G:4.84% B:1.69%)
4.XG Roller++21/16 14/11eq: +0.065 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
53.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.76% (G:3.79% B:1.16%)
5.XG Roller++21/13eq: +0.063 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
53.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.87% (G:3.90% B:1.16%)
6.XG Roller++21/16 7/4eq: +0.062 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
53.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.89% (G:4.57% B:1.41%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/6.

This is where I want this spare.



USBGF Members: 33 no play

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 82
             
11 point match
              pip: 28
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AA-a-------------bcbbbbaA:1:-1:-1:65:9:9:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedXG Roller++21/10eq: -0.010
Player:
Opponent:
49.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
50.52% (G:2.51% B:0.59%)
2.XG Roller++21/15 7/2eq: -0.043 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
47.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
52.17% (G:3.79% B:0.97%)
3.XG Roller++21/16 7/1eq: -0.367 (-0.357)
Player:
Opponent:
31.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
68.36% (G:4.23% B:0.60%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/10.

No choice here and I am rolling too large.



USBGF Members: 21 b/24*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 95
             
11 point match
              pip: 27
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aAA------------a--bcbbbbA-:1:-1:-1:32:9:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/23* 4/1*eq: +0.474
Player:
Opponent:
73.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.31% (G:3.13% B:1.33%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23* 7/4eq: +0.459 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
72.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
27.03% (G:1.65% B:0.53%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/23* 23/20eq: +0.433 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
71.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.34% (G:1.95% B:0.62%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/23* 10/7eq: +0.430 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
71.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.51% (G:1.74% B:0.55%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/23* 6/3eq: +0.426 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
71.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.69% (G:1.79% B:0.55%)
6.XG Roller++Bar/23* 5/2eq: +0.383 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
69.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
30.84% (G:4.44% B:1.59%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23* 4/1*.

I’ve played enough endgame props over the years to suspect it is time for a “Looks Really Cool” play, since I have so much diversification. The ideas in play here are that this looks like the best way to prevent my opponents from anchoring on my ace point and also best to pick up a 3rd checker. If I close only 2 checkers out, I think I can win a bit less than 75%, but if can close out all 3 checkers I win over 90%. Noting that I cannot be gammoned or backgammoned, this seems worth the risk of a blowup.



USBGF Members: 51 b/24*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 50
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aAa------------a--bcbabbAA:1:-1:-1:62:9:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/23 10/4eq: +0.451
Player:
Opponent:
72.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
27.45% (G:2.24% B:0.87%)
2.xgXG Roller++Bar/23 7/1*eq: +0.444 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
72.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
27.82% (G:3.96% B:1.93%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/19 7/5eq: +0.430 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
71.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.48% (G:4.61% B:1.99%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/19 6/4eq: +0.430 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
71.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.51% (G:2.81% B:1.13%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 10/4.

Hitting loose on the ace point looks to be rather big now, as I have another checker back and would also break my bar point. As more of my checkers get sent back, the risk of failing to close out becomes greater. My spare on my 6 point is well placed, so I leave it there and recover my 4 point with my 6.



USBGF Members: 53 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 50
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Ab---------------bcbbbbAA:1:-1:-1:65:9:9:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedXG Roller++23/18 7/1*eq: +0.505
Player:
Opponent:
75.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.74% (G:1.39% B:0.57%)
2.XG Roller++23/17 6/1*eq: +0.493 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
74.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.37% (G:1.42% B:0.61%)
3.XG Roller++7/1* 6/1eq: +0.489 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
74.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.53% (G:0.07% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/18 7/1*.

I am quite certain from previous study and even a prop decades ago, that closing my board isn’t optimal. I may have to do it later rather than misplace my spares, but I can afford to try for the 3rd checker for a while. I play 7/1*, since I retain a 5 prime board and want better distribution if I get hit. If my opponents anchor, I want to be blotted on my bar point anyhow to force them out with a 6 to give me another chance at an ace.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 95
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Aa----a----------acbbbbaB:1:-1:-1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedXG Roller++18/8eq: +0.523
Player:
Opponent:
76.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.85% (G:0.97% B:0.40%)
2.XG Roller++23/17 18/14eq: +0.517 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
75.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.16% (G:1.04% B:0.41%)
3.xgXG Roller++23/13eq: +0.515 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
75.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.25% (G:1.11% B:0.45%)
4.XG Roller++23/19 18/12eq: +0.514 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
75.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.28% (G:1.12% B:0.48%)
5.XG Roller++18/12 7/3eq: +0.512 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
75.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.38% (G:0.84% B:0.32%)
6.XG Roller++23/17 7/3eq: +0.511 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
75.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.46% (G:0.88% B:0.32%)
7.XG Roller++18/14 7/1eq: +0.496 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
74.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.21% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
8.XG Roller++23/19 7/1eq: +0.495 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
74.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.24% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/8.

I’m sticking with the plan and getting this checker closer to home, where it will soon be a builder to attack on my ace point after I am hopefully hit there and pick up their 3rd checker.



USBGF Members: 43 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 85
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Aa--------------aacbbbbaB:1:-1:-1:53:9:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedXG Roller++23/18 8/5eq: +0.533
Player:
Opponent:
76.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.34% (G:0.77% B:0.32%)
2.XG Roller++23/15eq: +0.525 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
76.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.75% (G:0.84% B:0.33%)
3.XG Roller++23/20 8/3eq: +0.524 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
76.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.78% (G:0.67% B:0.22%)
4.XG Roller++23/18 7/4eq: +0.523 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
76.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.84% (G:0.75% B:0.27%)
5.XG Roller++8/3 7/4eq: +0.520 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
76.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.00% (G:0.50% B:0.17%)
6.XG Roller++23/18 6/3eq: +0.512 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
75.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.38% (G:0.71% B:0.26%)
7.XG Roller++8/5 7/2eq: +0.497 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
74.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.14% (G:0.78% B:0.29%)
8.XG Roller++23/18 4/1eq: +0.493 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
74.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.36% (G:0.99% B:0.30%)
9.XG Roller++8/5 6/1eq: +0.492 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
74.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.42% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/18 8/5.

I stick with the plan to try to catch the 3rd checker and leave very nice distribution.



USBGF Members: 42 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 77
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-----a----------accbbbaB:1:-1:-1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedXG Roller++18/11eq: +0.525
Player:
Opponent:
76.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.77% (G:0.44% B:0.17%)
2.XG Roller++18/13 6/4eq: +0.522 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
76.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.88% (G:0.44% B:0.16%)
3.XG Roller++18/13 5/3eq: +0.517 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
75.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.13% (G:0.45% B:0.17%)
4.XG Roller++18/13 7/5eq: +0.517 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
75.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.16% (G:0.47% B:0.16%)
5.XG Roller++18/16 7/2eq: +0.498 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
74.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.10% (G:0.55% B:0.19%)
6.XG Roller++18/13 3/1eq: +0.496 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
74.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.19% (G:0.46% B:0.13%)
7.XG Roller++7/2 6/4eq: +0.490 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
74.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.52% (G:0.48% B:0.15%)
8.XG Roller++18/16 6/1eq: +0.487 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
74.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
9.XG Roller++7/2 5/3eq: +0.485 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
74.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.77% (G:0.46% B:0.14%)
10.XG Roller++7/5 6/1eq: +0.482 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
74.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/11.

I bring the last checker around and retain nice distribution.



USBGF Members: 42 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 70
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A------------a---accbbbaB:1:-1:-1:11:9:9:0:11:10
to play 11

1.XG Roller++11/7eq: +0.522
Player:
Opponent:
76.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.89% (G:0.33% B:0.11%)
2.xgXG Roller++11/10 7/4eq: +0.522 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
76.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.89% (G:0.28% B:0.10%)
3.playedXG Roller++11/8 2/1eq: +0.522 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
76.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.92% (G:0.42% B:0.13%)
4.XG Roller++11/8 5/4eq: +0.519 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
75.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.05% (G:0.33% B:0.12%)
5.XG Roller++11/9 6/4eq: +0.518 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
75.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.09% (G:0.31% B:0.10%)
6.XG Roller++11/8 7/6eq: +0.515 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
75.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.23% (G:0.37% B:0.13%)
7.XG Roller++11/9 7/5eq: +0.515 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
75.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.24% (G:0.38% B:0.14%)
8.XG Roller++7/3eq: +0.515 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
75.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.27% (G:0.32% B:0.10%)
9.XG Roller++11/9 7/6 5/4eq: +0.514 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
75.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.30% (G:0.40% B:0.14%)
10.XG Roller++11/9 5/3eq: +0.514 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
75.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.31% (G:0.38% B:0.14%)
11.XG Roller++11/10 6/3eq: +0.510 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
75.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.48% (G:0.35% B:0.12%)
12.XG Roller++11/9 3/1eq: +0.510 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
75.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.49% (G:0.34% B:0.08%)
13.XG Roller++11/10 7/6 5/3eq: +0.506 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
75.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.72% (G:0.42% B:0.14%)
14.XG Roller++6/3 5/4eq: +0.505 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
75.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.75% (G:0.32% B:0.11%)
15.XG Roller++7/4 5/4eq: +0.505 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
75.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.76% (G:0.37% B:0.13%)
16.XG Roller++7/4 6/5eq: +0.500 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
75.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.98% (G:0.30% B:0.10%)
17.XG Roller++11/10 5/2eq: +0.498 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
74.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.11% (G:0.49% B:0.19%)
18.XG Roller++7/4 2/1eq: +0.496 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
74.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.18% (G:0.32% B:0.08%)
19.XG Roller++11/10 6/4 5/4eq: +0.495 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
74.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.25% (G:0.42% B:0.14%)
20.XG Roller++11/9 5/4 2/1eq: +0.495 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
74.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.26% (G:0.43% B:0.11%)
21.XG Roller++11/10 6/4 2/1eq: +0.494 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
74.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.31% (G:0.43% B:0.11%)
22.XG Roller++6/2eq: +0.493 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
74.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.34% (G:0.50% B:0.19%)
23.XG Roller++5/1eq: +0.489 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
74.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.XG Roller++11/9 7/6 2/1eq: +0.489 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
74.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.56% (G:0.41% B:0.11%)
25.XG Roller++11/10 7/5 2/1eq: +0.487 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
74.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.63% (G:0.41% B:0.10%)
26.XG Roller++7/6 5/2eq: +0.482 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
74.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.88% (G:0.55% B:0.19%)
27.XG Roller++11/10 5/3 2/1eq: +0.481 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
74.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.94% (G:0.56% B:0.16%)
28.XG Roller++11/10 7/6 5/4 2/1eq: +0.480 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
74.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.98% (G:0.44% B:0.11%)
29.XG Roller++11/10 5/4 3/1eq: +0.469 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
73.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.57% (G:0.52% B:0.13%)
30.XG Roller++7/6 5/3 2/1eq: +0.465 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
73.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.77% (G:0.53% B:0.12%)
31.XG Roller++6/3 2/1eq: +0.454 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
72.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
27.30% (G:0.76% B:0.22%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/8 2/1.

Many plays are possible but since the usual outcome is that the USBGF Members dance, and then I have to close my board. I think this gives me the best looking distribution. If 22 is rolled, then I am set up nicely to squeeze my opponents off that anchor. However, I think plays with 3/1 go a bit too far.



USBGF Members: 55 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A---------------aaccbbabB:1:-1:-1:53:9:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/5 7/2eq: +0.498
Player:
Opponent:
74.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.497...+0.500) - [90.9%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout18/3 7/4eq: +0.497 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
74.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.17% (G:0.16% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.495...+0.498) - [9.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout27/2 6/3eq: +0.490 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
74.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.486...+0.494) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25.0 seconds
4.Rollout28/3 5/2eq: +0.487 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
74.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.484...+0.491) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.4 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 7/2.

Now I have to close out it seems and I have fine distribution for my bearoff.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 58
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-----------------cdbbbbB:1:-1:-1:41:9:9:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout15/Offeq: +0.535
Player:
Opponent:
76.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.531...+0.538) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16.3 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 5/4eq: +0.460 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
73.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.457...+0.464) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14.9 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/0.

I won’t consider leaving a blot on my ace pt with this fine roll for bearing off.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 53
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-----------------ccbbbbB:1:-1:-1:33:9:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.xgRollout16/Off(2)eq: +0.485
Player:
Opponent:
74.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.482...+0.489) - [86.8%]
Duration: 13.1 seconds
2.playedRollout16/Off 3/Off(2)eq: +0.482 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
74.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.479...+0.486) - [13.2%]
Duration: 32.5 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/0 3/0(2).

This play is so ugly that I considered leaving a 6 shot with the smooth 6/0(2). However, if hit, I might not roll an ace. However, I still can come around and win while my opponents dance. But that can be true if I am forced to later blot as well.



USBGF Members: 54 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 41
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-----------------bcb-bbB:1:-1:-1:53:9:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout15/2 5/Offeq: +0.382
Player:
Opponent:
69.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
30.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.378...+0.386) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
2.Rollout15/Off 4/1eq: +0.362 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
68.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.357...+0.366) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds
3.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: +0.317 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
65.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.313...+0.321) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.1 seconds
4.Rollout16/1 5/2eq: +0.310 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
65.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.306...+0.314) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49.7 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/2 5/0.

Once again, my dice are making a mess of a bearoff when my opponents were closed out!



USBGF Members: 65 b/20*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 53
             
11 point match
              pip: 46
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aA-----------------bAb-cbA:1:-1:-1:11:9:9:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout1Bar/24* 24/23 6/5*(2)eq: +0.651
Player:
Opponent:
82.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.647...+0.656) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59.9 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24* 6/5*(2) 2/1eq: +0.624 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
81.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
18.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.619...+0.629) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.2 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11 b/24*/23 6/5*(2).

This super joker makes me a big favorite once again.



USBGF Members: 43 b/22


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 49
             
11 point match
              pip: 72
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-----------------bbAcbB:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout123/17eq: +0.617
Player:
Opponent:
80.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
19.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.612...+0.622) - [100.0%]
Duration: 54.3 seconds
2.Rollout123/18 2/1eq: +0.591 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
79.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
20.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.586...+0.596) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54.5 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/17.

Closer to home and retaining that spare ace in my board incase I need it later.



USBGF Members: 44 no play
Neil Kazaross: 53 17/9
USBGF Members: 11 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 35
             
11 point match
              pip: 72
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=----------------a---bbAcbB:1:-1:-1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout19/5eq: +0.781
Player:
Opponent:
89.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.778...+0.785) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19.3 seconds
2.Rollout15/4 5/2eq: +0.770 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
88.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
11.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.768...+0.773) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14.8 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/5.

This is a difficult choice, as I can clear the 5 point and leave only 2 shots, but their 66 will often cost me the game. Also, if I clear, I am not guaranteed to be able to play safely later anyhow. 9/5 assures that I will bear more checkers off prior to being hit and I just might be able to roll well enough to avoid being hit.



USBGF Members: 11 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 31
             
11 point match
              pip: 72
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=--------------------cbAcbB:1:-1:-1:53:9:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout15/2 5/Offeq: +0.686
Player:
Opponent:
84.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
15.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.682...+0.690) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18.6 seconds
2.Rollout15/Off 4/1eq: +0.659 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
82.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.655...+0.662) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26.4 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/2 5/0.

This should be a bit easier to clean up if missed.



USBGF Members: 32 b/22


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 23
             
11 point match
              pip: 69
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=--------------------abBdbA:1:-1:-1:53:9:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout15/Off 4/1eq: +0.663
Player:
Opponent:
83.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
16.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.661...+0.664) - [99.9%]
Duration: 13.6 seconds
2.Rollout15/2 4/Offeq: +0.660 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
82.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.658...+0.661) - [0.1%]
Duration: 12.0 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 53 5/0 4/1.

This bearoff shows how bad a gap on the 3 point can be. I am regretting my earlier 33 play, which was safe only temporarily it seems. Fortunately I will remain a favorite even if hit.



USBGF Members: 33 b/13
Neil Kazaross: 63 4/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 53


Neil Kazaross wins 2 points, and the match.

USBGF OLM 2017-08-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 195
             
11 point match
              pip: 66
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dCcDDD------------bbab-a-:1:-1:1:22:9:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout16/4(4)eq: +0.244
Player:
Opponent:
62.21% (G:46.46% B:32.03%)
37.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.237...+0.251) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 2/Offeq: +0.227 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
61.35% (G:45.00% B:30.69%)
38.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.220...+0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout16/4 6/Offeq: +0.216 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
60.79% (G:45.14% B:29.26%)
39.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.209...+0.222) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout16/Off 4/2eq: +0.170 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
58.48% (G:43.54% B:26.35%)
41.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.164...+0.176) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 39 seconds
5.Rollout16/2(2)eq: +0.163 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
58.16% (G:44.34% B:25.26%)
41.84% (G:0.17% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.158...+0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33947418
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 6/4(4)
[ 1] 6/0 4/2
[ 1] 6/0 2/0


Mary Hickey recommends:

The best way not to leave a shot on a point, is not to have any checkers on it! That normally means clearing your highest point when you can against a backgame. There’s a very slight counter-consideration today in that if we keep the 6 point, we make his 33 very bad, and his 32 and 31 pretty bad though not to the point that he can’t recover from the damage they do. And if he rolls one of those numbers, or one of the remaining rolls that don’t let him leave no matter what we do (22, 21, 11), and we keep the 6 point another turn after that, then he could roll one of those baddies on the second go-round, and so forth. But these possibilities are quite small, and the danger posed by our owning the 6 point is much more long-lasting and menacing. It appears our best bet is to let that high point go now and avoid trouble on it later, with the normal play of 6/4(4).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 195
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dCcHD-------------bbab-a-:1:-1:-1:55:9:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout124/4eq: -0.182
Player:
Opponent:
40.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.10% (G:42.62% B:26.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.184...-0.180) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
2.Rollout124/9 22/17eq: -0.192 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
40.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.62% (G:43.19% B:27.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.195...-0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.Rollout224/19 22/7eq: -0.193 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
40.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.63% (G:43.14% B:26.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.199...-0.187) - [0.1%]
Duration: 14 minutes 33 seconds
4.Rollout224/14 22/12eq: -0.197 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
40.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.83% (G:43.60% B:26.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.203...-0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33947418
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33947418
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/4.

24/4 remakes my 4 point more quickly than I expected to be able to do!


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 175
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cCcHD-------------bbbb-a-:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 8/16 1115a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-08-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 204
             
11 point match
              pip: 78
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=acCcBDCB----A--a---bbb--a-:1:-1:1:61:9:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout112/5eq: +0.076
Player:
Opponent:
53.81% (G:40.00% B:22.46%)
46.19% (G:1.43% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.071...+0.082) - [99.1%]
Duration: 36 minutes 21 seconds
2.playedRollout112/6 5/4eq: +0.067 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
53.33% (G:39.12% B:21.77%)
46.67% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.061...+0.072) - [0.9%]
Duration: 35 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout112/6 7/6eq: +0.056 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
52.82% (G:38.93% B:22.31%)
47.18% (G:1.22% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.051...+0.062) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28634198
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 12/6 5/4
[12] 12/6 7/6


Mary Hickey recommends: 12/6 5/4

Yes I remember what I said about needing spares on 5 point to bear off against the 1+3 backgame, and I did look at 12/5, but decided on 12/6 5/4 because the diversity looks better somehow than that huge stack. Sorry I can’t give a more technical reason for preferring it! But this difference is likely to be small anyway, so the world won’t end if we get it wrong….well, at least not for that reason :(



Neil Kazaross: 41 b/24 10/6
USBGF Members: 32 7/5 7/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 199
             
11 point match
              pip: 66
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dCcDDD------------cbb--a-:1:-1:-1:11:9:9:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout16/3 4/3eq: -0.188
Player:
Opponent:
40.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.41% (G:43.88% B:28.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.194...-0.182) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout16/2eq: -0.203 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
39.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.15% (G:44.02% B:27.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.209...-0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 12 seconds
3.Rollout15/3(2)eq: -0.212 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
39.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.59% (G:44.89% B:27.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.218...-0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28634198
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3 4/3.

This 11 is a miserable roll as now I must misplace another checker. So 6/3 is basically forced. I know I want a prime or near prime when I hit a shot. 3/2 looks to be wrong for those purposes. My opponents rolled well and now have a clean bearoff position with many spares. I am unlikely to get a shot for a few turns. So if I play 4/3 I can sometimes remake my 4 point by the time I hit a shot.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 195
             
11 point match
              pip: 66
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dCcDDD------------bbab-a-:1:-1:1:22:9:9:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 187
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abCcBDCB-------a--abbbA-a-:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout122/18* 18/12eq: +0.106
Player:
Opponent:
55.29% (G:41.58% B:23.54%)
44.71% (G:0.87% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.100...+0.112) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout122/12eq: +0.058 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
52.91% (G:36.79% B:17.53%)
47.09% (G:1.56% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.053...+0.063) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28634198
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 22/18*/12
[13] 22/12


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/18*/12

We’re out of there! The only decision we need to make is whether to hit or not on the way.

He’s so far behind in the pip count that if he rolls half-decently from the bar, there’s no way we can bust his timing by making him run out of pips to play. But we can hope that he rolls poorly instead, say by entering quickly but then rolling some low numbers that force him to bury or at least misplace some of his forward checkers. In that case we’re glad we got rid of even the few playable pips he had tied up in that checker. And even if he rolls well, we have delayed his prime-building by removing a slot he had on a point he clearly wants. He’s still favored to make a four point prime, but it will take him longer, and that’s good. There’s also another reason to hit, which is that if he fans long enough, we might be able to clear our bar point safely, or at most leaving only indirect shots.



Neil Kazaross: 61 b/24


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 204
             
11 point match
              pip: 78
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=acCcBDCB----A--a---bbb--a-:1:-1:1:61:9:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCcBDCB-------a--abbb-aaA:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23* 23/22eq: +0.062
Player:
Opponent:
53.09% (G:37.46% B:20.21%)
46.91% (G:2.42% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.056...+0.067) - [100.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23* 5/4eq: +0.029 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
51.47% (G:36.24% B:17.83%)
48.53% (G:2.84% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.024...+0.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14983862
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/23*/22
[ 5] b/23* 5/4


Mary Hickey recommends: b/23*/22

It’s a shame we have to hit either blot, but since we do, we might as well knock off the slot he’s got sitting on the better of the two inside points. That means bar/23*, then continue on to the 22 point so we don’t get blocked behind his block on any more rolls than we absolutely have to be. I expect this to be unanimous today.

(There! I got through a discussion about not hitting on his ace point without once mentioning Zombies!)



Neil Kazaross: 55 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 187
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abCcBDCB-------a--abbbA-a-:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 171
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCcBDCB----a-a----bbbAaa-:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout122/15eq: +0.091
Player:
Opponent:
54.53% (G:34.46% B:14.63%)
45.47% (G:2.09% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.085...+0.096) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout122/17 6/4eq: +0.054 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
52.72% (G:33.22% B:15.00%)
47.28% (G:3.14% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.049...+0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 26 seconds
3.Rollout17/5 7/2eq: +0.034 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
51.71% (G:32.61% B:13.15%)
48.29% (G:2.60% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.029...+0.039) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14983862
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 22/15
[ 2] 7/5 7/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/15

We’re trying to run, so that’s what we need to do! 22/15 stands out because it gets us moving, and leaves our spares on the high points. That’s important to avoid rootation if we get hit. If not, we’re closer to home and that’s good, too.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 171
             
11 point match
              pip: 81
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCcBDCB----a-aA---bbb-aa-:1:-1:-1:43:9:9:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/10* 11/7eq: -0.067
Player:
Opponent:
46.65% (G:2.73% B:0.14%)
53.35% (G:35.53% B:17.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.069...-0.065) - [80.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout113/10* 10/6eq: -0.068 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
46.58% (G:2.83% B:0.19%)
53.42% (G:34.73% B:15.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.071...-0.066) - [20.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14983862
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10* 11/7.

While there’s only a small chance to contain my opponents after hitting, I still think it is worth a try and that I should hit 13/10*. But the main reason to hit is to hope that they hit me and give me even more timing for my backgame.

After 13/10*, two 4’s are possible. 10/6 leaves one fewer blot which isn’t really important here. 11/7 slots the bar point and looks to be automatic when playing a deep backgame at DMP. However, the drawback is that I might get a few blots hit and then they can easily clear their bar point. If I have a couple checkers on the bar I won’t be able to hit any blot they may be forced to leave on their bar point. 11/7 also makes it more likely that I can make my bar point later.

Since I am playing a deep backgame at DMP, 13/10x 11/7 looks right to me.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCcBDCB-------a--abbb-aaA:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 180
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBdBCCBB-----a----bbb-aaA:1:-1:1:33:9:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 8/5 8/2eq: +0.136
Player:
Opponent:
56.82% (G:36.61% B:15.67%)
43.18% (G:1.72% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.134...+0.139) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 7/4(2) 5/2eq: +0.131 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
56.53% (G:36.21% B:15.95%)
43.47% (G:1.83% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.128...+0.133) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14983862
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] b/22 8/2 5/2
[ 2] b/22 7/4(2) 5/2


Mary Hickey recommends: b/22 8/5 8/2

Another day, another normal-looking play, just clearing from the back and hoping nothing weird happens that makes us “root” a blot on our bar point. Bar/22 8/5 8/2 is unsatisfactory, putting a spare on a point that doesn’t need it (the 2) and leaving a possible root-out double shot later on our bar point. But the alternative I see that makes sense, bar/22 7/4(2) 5/2, solves the bar point problem but strips the 5 point, very bad! We also can root on the 8 point, though at the moment I’m not seeing how it would happen soon. If we do, at least it’s a single shot instead of a double. I like bar/22 8/5 8/2 to keep the bar point in case it still turns out to be more of an asset than a liability (for example, if he rolls a 44 soon, or a series of small rolls including 4s) and because we really, seriously need at least one spare on that 5 point for later.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 180
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCdBDCB------a----bbbAaa-:1:-1:-1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout122/13eq: -0.092
Player:
Opponent:
45.41% (G:2.00% B:0.17%)
54.59% (G:34.95% B:15.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.097...-0.087) - [99.6%]
Duration: 29 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout122/17 11/7eq: -0.101 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
44.93% (G:1.98% B:0.11%)
55.07% (G:36.17% B:16.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.107...-0.096) - [0.4%]
Duration: 28 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14983862
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/13.

22/13 frees a spare checker, which is very important, and gives me some outfield coverage.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 171
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bCcBDCB----a-a----bbbAaa-:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 106
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBcBBBCB-A---a----bbbaaaA:1:-1:1:22:9:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout1Bar/23* 10/6 7/5eq: +0.177
Player:
Opponent:
58.86% (G:39.17% B:17.56%)
41.14% (G:1.45% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.172...+0.182) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23* 7/5(3)eq: +0.156 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
57.81% (G:40.10% B:21.23%)
42.19% (G:1.43% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.150...+0.162) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 15 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/23* 10/4eq: +0.153 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
57.64% (G:38.27% B:18.19%)
42.36% (G:2.04% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.148...+0.158) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 54 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/23* 10/8 7/5(2)eq: +0.143 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
57.15% (G:38.39% B:19.02%)
42.85% (G:1.63% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.138...+0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/23* 8/6(2) 7/5eq: +0.139 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
56.97% (G:38.94% B:20.10%)
43.03% (G:1.65% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.134...+0.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 04 seconds
6.Rollout1Bar/23* 8/4 7/5eq: +0.138 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
56.92% (G:39.64% B:20.66%)
43.08% (G:2.06% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.133...+0.144) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 34 seconds
7.Rollout1Bar/23* 8/6 8/4eq: +0.125 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
56.23% (G:37.88% B:18.68%)
43.77% (G:1.96% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.119...+0.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] b/23* 10/6 7/5
[ 1] b/23* 10/4


Mary Hickey recommends: b/23* 10/6 7/5

The natural-looking bar/23* 10/6 7/5 looks right, if only because any other alternative either looks too awkward, leaves another blot hanging, or does both. It’s good that we’re putting a spare on the 5 point for the long term.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 184
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abBcBCCBB-----a----bbbaAa-:1:-1:-1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout1Bar/22 11/10eq: -0.191
Player:
Opponent:
40.45% (G:1.87% B:0.14%)
59.55% (G:37.96% B:16.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.193...-0.189) - [95.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/22 3/2*eq: -0.194 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
40.32% (G:1.64% B:0.09%)
59.68% (G:40.19% B:19.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.196...-0.191) - [5.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 43 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/22 4/3eq: -0.214 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
39.30% (G:1.66% B:0.12%)
60.70% (G:39.24% B:18.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.219...-0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/24 11/8eq: -0.217 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
39.17% (G:2.12% B:0.10%)
60.83% (G:39.78% B:18.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.222...-0.211) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout2Bar/22 6/5eq: -0.239 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
38.04% (G:1.01% B:0.08%)
61.96% (G:41.59% B:21.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.245...-0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 19 seconds
6.Rollout2Bar/22 5/4eq: -0.247 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
37.63% (G:1.19% B:0.12%)
62.37% (G:42.10% B:20.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.253...-0.242) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 58 seconds
7.Rollout2Bar/24 6/3eq: -0.250 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
37.49% (G:1.52% B:0.10%)
62.51% (G:41.23% B:19.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.255...-0.245) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 06 seconds
8.Rollout2Bar/24 5/2*eq: -0.266 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
36.69% (G:0.81% B:0.05%)
63.31% (G:47.56% B:30.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.274...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 40 seconds
9.Rollout2Bar/24 4/1eq: -0.311 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
34.44% (G:1.12% B:0.03%)
65.56% (G:41.93% B:19.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.316...-0.306) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 3/2*.

Same plan. I will try to get hit, hopefully on the ace point and then hope to dance or enter with a 6.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 180
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBdBCCBB-----a----bbb-aaA:1:-1:1:33:9:9:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bAcBBCCB----Aa----cbbbA--:1:-1:1:43:9:9:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout113/6eq: +0.310
Player:
Opponent:
65.52% (G:37.06% B:13.32%)
34.48% (G:2.55% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.305...+0.315) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 7/4eq: +0.267 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
63.34% (G:32.14% B:10.25%)
36.66% (G:7.77% B:1.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.262...+0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 48 seconds
3.playedRollout113/10 6/2eq: +0.260 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
63.00% (G:36.28% B:15.38%)
37.00% (G:3.17% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.255...+0.265) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 47 seconds
4.Rollout17/4 6/2eq: +0.247 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
62.37% (G:35.67% B:15.60%)
37.63% (G:2.90% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.243...+0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 13/10 6/2 [coin flip!]
[10] 7/4 6/2
[ 5] 13/6
[ 1] 13/9 7/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/6

Covering the 2 point isn’t very important, though we’d do it if there were a clean way to do so. Where are the ghosts hiding now? If we get the second checker hit without a lot of playable pips remaining to use if we enter and can’t get out fast, we could lose a piece of our block after a turn or two, so I’d rather not have a second blot out where he can hit it with tempo. It’s not just the immediate 61 (after 13/10 6/2) that’s a problem, but also 64 that come out and hits inside, and even rolls like 54, 31, etc. that hit inside but leave our blot hanging if we don’t enter, giving him another shot at either rolling the joker to hit it, or rolling any 6 and getting to sit there an wait for another chance at it. So today watching out for ghosts looks good, and 13/6 is a way of not opening the creaking door that might let them in.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 104
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBcBBBCB-A---a----cbbbA--:1:-1:-1:42:9:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout16/2* 3/1eq: -0.246
Player:
Opponent:
37.71% (G:1.61% B:0.11%)
62.29% (G:40.81% B:18.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.252...-0.240) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout111/7 4/2*eq: -0.274 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
36.30% (G:1.71% B:0.15%)
63.70% (G:39.13% B:16.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.279...-0.269) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout111/9 6/2*eq: -0.278 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
36.11% (G:2.75% B:0.45%)
63.89% (G:35.68% B:14.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.283...-0.273) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 09 seconds
4.Rollout16/4 6/2*eq: -0.302 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
34.89% (G:1.76% B:0.19%)
65.11% (G:38.64% B:15.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.307...-0.297) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 44 seconds
5.Rollout111/7 6/4eq: -0.307 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
34.63% (G:2.49% B:0.22%)
65.37% (G:34.76% B:12.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.312...-0.303) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 54 seconds
6.Rollout15/1 4/2*eq: -0.317 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
34.17% (G:0.97% B:0.03%)
65.83% (G:44.12% B:22.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.322...-0.311) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 00 second
7.Rollout16/2* 5/3eq: -0.324 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
33.82% (G:1.53% B:0.13%)
66.18% (G:40.77% B:17.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.329...-0.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 34 seconds
8.Rollout111/7 3/1eq: -0.332 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
33.38% (G:1.63% B:0.17%)
66.62% (G:37.78% B:14.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.337...-0.328) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 55 seconds
9.Rollout16/2* 4/2eq: -0.347 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
32.65% (G:1.82% B:0.14%)
67.35% (G:39.12% B:15.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.352...-0.342) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 23 seconds
10.Rollout111/7 5/3eq: -0.356 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
32.21% (G:1.62% B:0.22%)
67.79% (G:36.48% B:12.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.360...-0.351) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 16 seconds
11.Rollout111/5eq: -0.362 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
31.90% (G:2.14% B:0.25%)
68.10% (G:33.23% B:11.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.367...-0.357) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 07 seconds
12.Rollout16/4 5/1eq: -0.392 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:
30.40% (G:1.22% B:0.05%)
69.60% (G:37.61% B:14.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.397...-0.387) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 52 seconds
13.Rollout111/9 5/1eq: -0.397 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
30.13% (G:1.50% B:0.06%)
69.87% (G:36.15% B:12.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.402...-0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 34 seconds
14.Rollout15/1 3/1eq: -0.445 (-0.199)
Player:
Opponent:
27.74% (G:0.87% B:0.03%)
72.26% (G:37.56% B:12.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.450...-0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 24 seconds
15.Rollout15/3 5/1eq: -0.472 (-0.226)
Player:
Opponent:
26.39% (G:1.07% B:0.03%)
73.61% (G:36.78% B:11.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.477...-0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 12 seconds
16.Rollout124/22 6/2*eq: -0.492 (-0.246)
Player:
Opponent:
25.41% (G:3.40% B:0.30%)
74.59% (G:49.42% B:7.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.496...-0.487) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 53 seconds
17.Rollout124/22 11/7eq: -0.560 (-0.314)
Player:
Opponent:
22.00% (G:1.98% B:0.20%)
78.00% (G:52.53% B:5.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.564...-0.556) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 33 seconds
18.Rollout124/22 5/1eq: -0.662 (-0.416)
Player:
Opponent:
16.92% (G:1.14% B:0.11%)
83.08% (G:58.36% B:8.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.665...-0.658) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/2* 3/1.

Now I can take advantage of the fact that it is DMP, so I suffer no extra losses for a gammon or backgammon. Therefore, I’ll make a backgame play, hoping to gain some more timing by dancing a while when hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 106
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBcBBBCB-A---a----bbbaaaA:1:-1:1:22:9:9:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 177
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacBBCCCA---A-----cbaba--:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout113/12 7/5eq: +0.470
Player:
Opponent:
73.50% (G:44.29% B:13.00%)
26.50% (G:1.69% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.468...+0.472) - [83.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout113/10eq: +0.468 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
73.41% (G:44.44% B:12.59%)
26.59% (G:1.58% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.466...+0.470) - [9.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
3.playedRollout18/5eq: +0.468 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
73.38% (G:44.13% B:12.92%)
26.62% (G:1.72% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.465...+0.470) - [4.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
4.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: +0.467 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
73.37% (G:44.13% B:12.73%)
26.63% (G:1.74% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.465...+0.469) - [2.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
5.Rollout113/11 7/6eq: +0.466 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
73.31% (G:44.14% B:13.22%)
26.69% (G:1.54% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.464...+0.468) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes
6.Rollout27/4eq: +0.463 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
73.13% (G:43.73% B:13.40%)
26.87% (G:1.82% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.457...+0.468) - [0.5%]
Duration: 28 minutes 45 seconds
7.Rollout213/12 6/4eq: +0.462 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
73.09% (G:43.73% B:12.94%)
26.91% (G:1.64% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.457...+0.467) - [0.1%]
Duration: 30 minutes 00 second
8.Rollout213/12 8/6eq: +0.459 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
72.95% (G:44.12% B:12.52%)
27.05% (G:1.78% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.454...+0.464) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 19 seconds
9.Rollout27/5 6/5eq: +0.458 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
72.91% (G:43.78% B:12.42%)
27.09% (G:1.60% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.453...+0.463) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 07 seconds
10.Rollout213/11 8/7eq: +0.457 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
72.84% (G:44.07% B:13.24%)
27.16% (G:1.59% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.452...+0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 20 seconds
11.Rollout28/7 6/4eq: +0.451 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
72.56% (G:43.36% B:12.21%)
27.44% (G:1.66% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.446...+0.456) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 55 seconds
12.Rollout28/6 7/6eq: +0.448 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
72.38% (G:43.83% B:11.98%)
27.62% (G:1.81% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.443...+0.453) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 58 seconds
13.Rollout29/8 7/5eq: +0.426 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
71.31% (G:41.75% B:11.20%)
28.69% (G:1.43% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.422...+0.431) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 45 seconds
14.Rollout29/6eq: +0.422 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
71.12% (G:42.21% B:10.99%)
28.88% (G:1.56% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.418...+0.427) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 39 seconds
15.Rollout213/11 9/8eq: +0.416 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
70.79% (G:41.43% B:10.50%)
29.21% (G:1.45% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.411...+0.420) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 22 seconds
16.Rollout213/12 9/7eq: +0.416 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
70.78% (G:41.88% B:11.10%)
29.22% (G:1.90% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.411...+0.420) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 8/5
[ 5] 13/10
[ 3] 9/6
[ 1] 13/12 9/7
[ 1] 13/12 7/5
[ 1] 9/8 7/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5

As long as we leave the 9 point slotted, it’s not terribly important what we do. I voted for 8/5 because if we end up bearing off against the 1+3 backgame, we definitely want at least one spare on the 5 point, if not more. The 5 point tends to produce shots for the opponent in this backgame because both 5s and 3s play off that point, and there are no other options for either of those numbers. Putting a spare there when we can do it at no cost that I can see, makes sense.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 177
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacBCCCBA---A-----cbaba--:1:-1:-1:66:9:9:0:11:10
to play 66

1.xgRollout122/16*(3) 16/10eq: -0.433
Player:
Opponent:
28.37% (G:4.33% B:0.62%)
71.63% (G:43.29% B:19.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.438...-0.427) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 43 seconds
2.playedRollout122/16*(2) 16/4eq: -0.460 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
26.98% (G:5.48% B:0.53%)
73.02% (G:37.17% B:11.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.466...-0.455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/16*(2) 16/4.

This play would be automatic at a normal score since if I do anything except hitting and covering I will lose too many extra gammons and backgammons. But at DMP bringing out 3 checkers could be better as I gain considerably if missed. This 66 gives me some chances to win going forwards and harms my backgame chances. But it just looks too weird to me to not make my 4 point.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 116
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-baaBCCCBa---A-----cbbba-A:1:-1:-1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.Rollout124/22 6/1eq: -0.460
Player:
Opponent:
26.98% (G:4.44% B:0.44%)
73.02% (G:41.40% B:9.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.462...-0.458) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 40 minutes
2.playedRollout124/22 16/11eq: -0.469 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
26.56% (G:5.50% B:0.53%)
73.44% (G:33.41% B:5.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.470...-0.467) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10884849
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 16/11.

This is automatic at a normal score but is difficult at DMP since it may be best to still play in backgame mode with 24/22 6/1. But since when my opponents enter they will often attack inside their board and I may end up with no backgame I will preserve forward options with 24/22 16/11 and hope for covering my 2 point and a quick 6.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 146
             
11 point match
              pip: 116
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aabBCCCB----Aa----cbbba-A:1:-1:1:32:9:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 189
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacABCCC-A--Ba-a--bbab---:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout113/9 10/4eq: +0.280
Player:
Opponent:
64.01% (G:39.49% B:12.41%)
35.99% (G:3.33% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.275...+0.286) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 8/4eq: +0.233 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
61.67% (G:38.41% B:10.31%)
38.33% (G:3.39% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.228...+0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout110/4 6/2*eq: +0.227 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
61.36% (G:38.01% B:13.73%)
38.64% (G:2.55% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.222...+0.233) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout110/4 8/4eq: +0.222 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
61.10% (G:37.43% B:10.01%)
38.90% (G:3.23% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.217...+0.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 13/9 10/4
[ 6] 10/4 6/2*
[ 5] 10/4 8/4
[ 1] 13/7 8/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/9 10/4

We have a choice of how to cover the 4 point, but the better way becomes clear when we consider what a super option we have with the 4 when we play the 6 10/4. Playing that 4 13/9 means that if he escapes his lone spare checker that’s at the edge of our prime, he is obliged to reset our timing by hitting. This looks more important than trying to prevent his making the 2 point now, even though he’d still be better off with the 2+3 than the 1+3. Better to bust the timing of whichever game he has, than to worry this turn about which one it is.

If he doesn’t hit, that’s even better, because if we get a small 4, we may cover the 9 point. Even if we can only hold it for one turn, it’s well worth making it, because it may prevent his running a 6 for one possibly critical roll.

Also, one of our motivations for hitting anywhere is gone now, which was to buy some time to make our 4 point before he did. We have it now! And then, too, if he rolls combinations of 5s and 4s, we certainly want to let him play them, not stay out. That means the inside hit, though not out of the question, is lower priority than before.

We don’t actually want him to hit us this turn, but if he rolls a 6, it’s the lesser of two evils. Letting him run freely might possibly save his timing just enough that we’re in big trouble if we leave a double or triple shot and get hit while bearing in. But his timing is getting so bad that if he is forced to hit us now, he might melt his lower board into blots, trying to force us to hit him on our way on and out of his board. When gammons and backgammons count, that strategy tends to be questionable, especially for humans because of the great difficulty in playing a containment ending where you have to rebuild your board starting from just two or three low points. But here at DMP, he just might want to bring on a Zombie Apocalypse!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 189
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacBBCCCA---Aa-a--bbab---:1:-1:-1:33:9:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout111/2 9/6eq: -0.385
Player:
Opponent:
30.77% (G:1.51% B:0.23%)
69.23% (G:42.52% B:13.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.390...-0.380) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 9/3eq: -0.410 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
29.48% (G:1.27% B:0.05%)
70.52% (G:43.50% B:15.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.416...-0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/2 9/6.

This bad 33 makes my shaky timing worse. 11/2 9/6 will kill 6’s if my opponents make their 9 point so this looks like the play to best try to salvage some timing.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 177
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacBBCCCA---A-----cbaba--:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 121
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bac-BDCC---aBa-A-abb-b---:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout116/10 6/4eq: +0.268
Player:
Opponent:
63.39% (G:37.57% B:9.61%)
36.61% (G:4.33% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.262...+0.273) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
2.Rollout116/14* 8/2*eq: +0.252 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
62.58% (G:40.30% B:14.51%)
37.42% (G:3.89% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.245...+0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
3.Rollout18/2* 6/4eq: +0.242 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
62.09% (G:35.09% B:9.31%)
37.91% (G:7.81% B:1.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.236...+0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
4.Rollout116/10 13/11eq: +0.195 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
59.76% (G:35.56% B:9.57%)
40.24% (G:4.52% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.190...+0.200) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 14 seconds
5.Rollout116/10 7/5eq: +0.193 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
59.64% (G:35.49% B:9.34%)
40.36% (G:4.33% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.188...+0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 31 seconds
6.Rollout18/2* 7/5eq: +0.186 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
59.28% (G:35.60% B:12.17%)
40.72% (G:5.31% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.180...+0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
7.Rollout113/5eq: +0.176 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
58.80% (G:35.84% B:9.72%)
41.20% (G:5.27% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.171...+0.181) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 03 seconds
8.Rollout116/10 8/6eq: +0.175 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
58.75% (G:34.14% B:8.63%)
41.25% (G:5.11% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.170...+0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 51 seconds
9.Rollout113/7 6/4eq: +0.175 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
58.74% (G:32.80% B:7.42%)
41.26% (G:9.22% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.169...+0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
10.Rollout113/11 8/2*eq: +0.165 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
58.24% (G:34.19% B:10.23%)
41.76% (G:7.35% B:1.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.159...+0.171) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
11.Rollout116/8eq: +0.160 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
58.02% (G:34.31% B:9.40%)
41.98% (G:5.03% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.155...+0.165) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 46 seconds
12.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: +0.156 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
57.78% (G:35.16% B:9.78%)
42.22% (G:5.17% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.150...+0.161) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 20 seconds
13.Rollout116/14* 13/7eq: +0.147 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
57.33% (G:37.21% B:13.50%)
42.67% (G:4.65% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.139...+0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
14.Rollout116/14* 14/8eq: +0.125 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
56.27% (G:35.97% B:12.18%)
43.73% (G:4.26% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.119...+0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 16/10 6/4
[8] 16/10 7/5
[5] 16/14* 8/2*
[2] 16/14*/8
[1] 16/8
[1] 16/10 13/11
[1] 16/10 8/6


Mary Hickey recommends: 16/14* 8/2*

We’d still like to get our 4 point ahead of him, and I suppose we could slot it up today, the way the bot says we should have done yesterday. I never seriously considered the slot with our 21, and though I’m looking at it today, I see something I like better.

The double hit, 16/14* 8/2*, appears to be the kind of distraction play we need to keep him from getting our 4 point ahead of us. It also picks off one of this outfield checkers while leaving us well set to bag the other one also, which can move us along the way toward overtiming his backgame. Finally, it prevents his rolling his game forward to the 2+3 backgame, which would be better than the 1+3, especially while we are still bearing in. Here’s the rule I live by when I have a choice between these two good backgames: The 2+3 tends to beat the 1+3 when the opponent still has their 8 point to clear. So conversely (or is that inversely?) we’d rather he doesn’t get to have that preferable game if we can prevent it.

Our blot we leave on the 2 point if we hit isn’t that big a deal. If he hits it, but we get our 4 point, we’ve made a great trade. If he hits it with a roll that would otherwise have allowed him to make our 4 point, it’s still all right because at least he didn’t get it on this go-round. Maybe we’ll still get to it first, who knows? And the semi-dead checker that he hit and turned into a zombie could be the one that eats his timing, even if it doesn’t eat his brains :0)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacABCCC-A-aBa---abb-b---:1:-1:-1:43:9:9:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/9 7/4eq: -0.291
Player:
Opponent:
35.46% (G:2.71% B:0.35%)
64.54% (G:39.26% B:11.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.296...-0.285) - [75.9%]
Duration: 48 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: -0.295 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
35.27% (G:2.55% B:0.29%)
64.73% (G:40.26% B:11.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.300...-0.289) - [14.8%]
Duration: 43 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout111/4eq: -0.295 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
35.23% (G:2.47% B:0.31%)
64.77% (G:40.61% B:13.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.301...-0.290) - [9.3%]
Duration: 46 minutes 25 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 11/7eq: -0.306 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
34.69% (G:2.39% B:0.30%)
65.31% (G:40.13% B:12.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.312...-0.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 38 seconds
5.Rollout124/21* 11/7eq: -0.317 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
34.13% (G:6.83% B:1.02%)
65.87% (G:36.41% B:6.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.323...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 7/4.

My opponents did well to slot here, and I have considerable doubts as to whether I should hit it. If I hit, I improve their timing and after 11/7 I will be trying to fight a battle of primes with a broken 4 prime with one checker back vs a solid 4 prime with 6 checkers behind it. Although they will often enter and hit me back on their 4 point and I may re-hit, I don’t see winning very often going forwards. However, if I had my 4 point rather than my 3 point and could make a solid 4 prime, I’d hit. In addition, by hitting I still may play this as a backgame, but those checkers I do hit, may come back to haunt me if they end up making a prime from the rear.

So it looks close to me, since my chances to time a backgame after 13/9 7/4 aren’t that good. I’d much prefer my position for backgame purposes if I was 20 or 30 pips further behind. As things stand now, by choosing to not hit I am hoping that the USBGF Members roll some large numbers while I roll small.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 189
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bacABCCC-A--Ba-a--bbab---:1:-1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-02

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 202
             
11 point match
              pip: 124
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbb-BCBEa--aB--A-abb-b---:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.Rollout18/7 6/4eq: +0.277
Player:
Opponent:
63.86% (G:35.76% B:9.19%)
36.14% (G:5.41% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.271...+0.283) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.Rollout116/15 6/4eq: +0.257 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
62.85% (G:35.66% B:9.38%)
37.15% (G:6.03% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.251...+0.263) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout113/12* 6/4eq: +0.254 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
62.69% (G:38.23% B:10.37%)
37.31% (G:6.36% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.247...+0.261) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
4.Rollout116/14 8/7eq: +0.226 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
61.30% (G:36.17% B:9.38%)
38.70% (G:4.75% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.220...+0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
5.playedRollout18/7 8/6eq: +0.223 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
61.17% (G:36.99% B:10.15%)
38.83% (G:4.26% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.217...+0.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
6.Rollout18/5eq: +0.220 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
61.01% (G:36.00% B:9.33%)
38.99% (G:5.29% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.214...+0.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
7.Rollout116/15 8/6eq: +0.216 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
60.80% (G:35.93% B:9.27%)
39.20% (G:4.75% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.210...+0.222) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
8.Rollout113/12* 8/6eq: +0.200 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
59.99% (G:37.61% B:12.04%)
40.01% (G:4.88% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.193...+0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
9.Rollout113/12* 12/10eq: +0.197 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
59.87% (G:37.25% B:11.71%)
40.13% (G:5.15% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.191...+0.204) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
10.Rollout116/13eq: +0.194 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
59.70% (G:35.38% B:7.87%)
40.30% (G:5.43% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.188...+0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 04 seconds
11.Rollout113/11 13/12*eq: +0.194 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
59.69% (G:37.12% B:12.08%)
40.31% (G:4.89% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.187...+0.201) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
12.Rollout113/11 8/7eq: +0.193 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
59.65% (G:35.11% B:9.12%)
40.35% (G:6.32% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.187...+0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
13.Rollout116/14 13/12*eq: +0.191 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
59.56% (G:36.94% B:12.17%)
40.44% (G:5.11% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.184...+0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 8/7 8/6
[7] 16/13
[6] 8/7 6/4
[4] 16/14 8/7
[3] 8/5
[1] 13/12* 6/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 16/14 8/7

We can start by rejecting the supersafe 16/13. That leaves us with too much awkwardness next turn, and for many turns thereafter, pretty much no matter what he does. Taking a risk of getting hit when it’s unlikely to lead directly to a loss doesn’t seem like too big a deal in comparison.

So, on to plays that relieve some of our awkwardness. For starters, that stack on the 8 point is just dying to roll a checker off onto our bar point with this ace! If we do that and then look around for a 2, maybe we can find a good play for it. 8/6 is a possibility, since having an extra builder there is unlikely to be bad, and a spare there could help in our bearoff. 16/14 is fine, too, getting a checker closer to home. The double shot it leaves instead of a single is no big deal, since one of the hitting rolls is a 2, which he might be better off using one of those inside our home board. Either of these choices has to beat out 16/13, so now on to the hits, to see if any of them beat out these structure-improvement plays.

After hitting with 13/12*, I like 16/14, risking a lot of returns but giving us our best chance to overtime him by hitting Blot B, and also our best shot at making the 9 point if he rolls a brick, including if he stays out. We can’t hold it for long if we get it, but at least it will prevent him from running a checker with a lot of his rolls for a couple of turns. That might be another way to attempt to overtime him.

I don’t think the hit is the wrong concept here a priori, but the opportunity cost of not diversifying with that ace and leaving that giant stack on the 8 to me overshadows any benefit that might come from hitting. I like 8/7 accompanied by 16/14, keeping the outside group together and hoping they can do something useful on their way home. If not, at least this play leaves us better set up to make the 4 point sometime later.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 202
             
11 point match
              pip: 121
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbb-BDCCa--aB--A-abb-b---:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout122/16eq: -0.255
Player:
Opponent:
37.23% (G:4.52% B:0.54%)
62.77% (G:37.57% B:12.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.261...-0.250) - [66.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.playedRollout123/22 16/11eq: -0.257 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
37.14% (G:4.24% B:0.51%)
62.86% (G:38.69% B:11.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.263...-0.251) - [33.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
3.Rollout116/10eq: -0.273 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
36.36% (G:4.16% B:0.50%)
63.64% (G:39.03% B:11.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.279...-0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
4.Rollout123/22 13/8eq: -0.276 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
36.19% (G:4.21% B:0.45%)
63.81% (G:38.41% B:10.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.282...-0.270) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/22 16/11.

Of course, I cannot play a 123 backgame from here as that needs much more timing than I currently have. So I will be moving a back checker. There are two plans for me.

22/16 makes their 9 point and gives me some timing in the outfield. It also makes the 9 point so my opponents cannot make it, but they aren’t very likely to be able to make it anyhow. The drawback of this play is that I may end up with just a 12 backgame. A 12 backgame just is so tough to time as it is so easy to prime.

23/22 keeps a 31 game that can still transition forward into a 32 game or into something holding the 4 point anchor. It also prepares to spring a checker into the outfield with a 6. After 23/22, I think the best 5 is 16/11 minimizing the damage if I roll 44 next and avoiding getting my outfield checkers too far forward.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 121
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bac-BDCC---aBa-A-abb-b---:1:-1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 190
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbb-BCBE---aB----abbab-A-:1:-1:1:53:9:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout124/21* 21/16eq: +0.232
Player:
Opponent:
61.62% (G:38.80% B:12.15%)
38.38% (G:4.41% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.226...+0.239) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.Rollout113/5eq: +0.202 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
60.10% (G:36.04% B:10.82%)
39.90% (G:6.40% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.196...+0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: +0.179 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
58.95% (G:35.57% B:10.54%)
41.05% (G:7.02% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.173...+0.186) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 24/21*/16
[ 6] 13/5
[ 1] 13/10 13/8


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/21*/16

We have to get Junior out of the back sometime, and if not now, when? We get rid of a well-placed enemy checker with 24/21*, and then get out with 21/16. While that added man back might let him time his game better, it also might help us overtime his game, making him crash up front before he can run his spares.

The standout alternative play would be 13/5, putting a builder where we could use one. It would be better, though, if that builder came from our stack on the 8 point, not from the midpoint. But the real problem with that play is that we still could get snagged back there in his board, and if we play 13/5 we miss a decent opportunity to un-snag ourselves. After we take care of that loose end, we can worry about what to do next to break up his backgame.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 211
             
11 point match
              pip: 124
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abbb-BCBE---aB--A-abb-b---:1:-1:-1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.224
Player:
Opponent:
38.78% (G:4.94% B:0.40%)
61.22% (G:37.87% B:10.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.230...-0.218) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: -0.288 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
35.61% (G:3.80% B:0.37%)
64.39% (G:40.40% B:11.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.294...-0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16.

I’m happy to be able to play b/16 gaining some timing and flexibility.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 202
             
11 point match
              pip: 124
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbb-BCBEa--aB--A-abb-b---:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-31

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 197
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aabb-BCBB---bD----Abbab-A-:1:-1:1:55:9:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout118/8 13/8 6/1*eq: +0.278
Player:
Opponent:
63.89% (G:36.24% B:7.03%)
36.11% (G:6.96% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.271...+0.284) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.playedRollout118/8 13/8(2)eq: +0.240 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
61.99% (G:35.80% B:8.39%)
38.01% (G:5.90% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.234...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 18/8 13/8(2)
[13] 18/8 13/8 6/1*


Mary Hickey recommends: 18/8 13/8 6/1*

I agree with the readers who think we need to hit on the ace point, 6/1*, and then play 18/8 13/8. It’s not to prevent his making the ace anchor, but rather to stop him from making our 4 point, either immediately or in stages. Our own distribution after this play is awful for our getting it, but if we keep him busy for a turn or two, we still might beat him to it. Alternatively, he might be forced to pooch his timing by hitting our dead checker and turning it into a zombie!

One big deal with our trying to make our 4 point is that if his backgame turns out to be well timed after all, bringing a solid five point prime home against it will be difficult, but bringing in a four point prime with a gap at the front edge is likely to be even more difficult! The other big deal is not letting him get it, since the 3+4 backgame is better for him if his timing stays iffy, and the 2+3+4 is one of the best three-points backgames, and maybe the best overall here, if he’s able to time it. After his staying out followed by our double 5s, it’s possible that he can. So, let’s not let him get that point if we can prevent it!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 197
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aabb-BCBE---bB-----bbab-A-:1:-1:-1:61:9:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout1Bar/24 22/16eq: -0.291
Player:
Opponent:
35.45% (G:5.59% B:0.71%)
64.55% (G:36.85% B:12.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.297...-0.285) - [87.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/24 13/7eq: -0.297 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
35.17% (G:4.90% B:0.53%)
64.83% (G:40.16% B:12.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.304...-0.289) - [12.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 13/7.

Normally when there’s only two choices how to play a number things can be easy to evaluate. This is certainly not the case here! I can play 13/7 which keeps the valuable anchor on the 22 point, but risks getting too far forward and then crashing my board at least to some extent.

Or I can play 22/16 which will do a better job of maintaining timing, but also may result in me playing a 21 backgame, which requires considerably more timing that I have. How to decide? Well this is the OLM and I have plenty of time look at both plays on the board and look at how the USBGF Members rolls then play. I am also looking at the difficulty the readers will have making these plays both this turn and for later turns. Well that helps decide it for me as after 13/7, I am unsure how the readers should play many of their rolls.

I like retaining the 22 point anchor and forcing some of their 5’s to play 13/8.

OK, since I’m basically in full backgame mode, I play b/24 13/7.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 190
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbb-BCBE---aB----abbab-A-:1:-1:1:53:9:9:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 179
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-abb-BCBB---bD----abbab-AA:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/18*eq: +0.400
Player:
Opponent:
69.99% (G:38.35% B:7.90%)
30.01% (G:5.55% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.393...+0.406) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: +0.362 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
68.08% (G:34.70% B:7.94%)
31.92% (G:8.35% B:1.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.356...+0.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/18*
[ 3] b/23 13/8


Mary Hickey recommends: b/18*

We may have mixed feelings about more or less having to hit, bar/18*, but the alternative of bar/23 13/8 looks too constricting for us. We will still have two men back, not good, and a builder on the 8, which isn’t bad in itself but can’t help us if we find we need to build our prime from the back rather than the front, which is still a possibility.

It’s true he may get a third anchor, but that’s not the end of the world. He doesn’t have the timing to play from all three anchors, and even if he did, the 1-2-3 is a lousy three-anchor setup. It tends to get overtimed (too many back, spares unable to run, and the forward game cracks up) and it generates its triple shots relatively late compared to, say, the 2-3-4 or 2-3-5 setups. He may be able to switch over to something better, but that’s something we’ll have to worry about later if it happens.



Neil Kazaross: 65 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 197
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=aabb-BCBB---bD----Abbab-A-:1:-1:1:55:9:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sun 7/30 930a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-07-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cD---b-bb-a-AA:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/18eq: +0.328
Player:
Opponent:
66.38% (G:34.10% B:8.73%)
33.62% (G:6.07% B:1.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.321...+0.334) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: +0.307 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
65.33% (G:37.14% B:10.43%)
34.67% (G:6.52% B:1.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.300...+0.313) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/18
[ 7] b/23 13/8


Mary Hickey recommends: b/18

The move that gets us closer to escape seems more important than adding a builder to our 8 point. If we get even one checker permanently freed, that’s good because it will then also become a builder for our forward block, and be a reservoir of playable pips in case we roll an unwelcome big double at a bad time. Also, Neil will have a harder time containing a single remaining back man, because it’s always threatening to take a flying leap out without the liability of leaving a companion behind. Bar/18 looks best for our current objectives.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cD---bAbb-a-A-:1:-1:-1:62:9:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout123/21 13/7*eq: -0.301
Player:
Opponent:
34.93% (G:7.21% B:0.98%)
65.07% (G:36.78% B:10.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.309...-0.294) - [98.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
2.playedRollout124/22 13/7*eq: -0.313 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
34.35% (G:6.69% B:1.28%)
65.65% (G:35.64% B:7.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.320...-0.306) - [1.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout124/16eq: -0.319 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
34.04% (G:6.61% B:0.86%)
65.96% (G:34.17% B:7.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.326...-0.313) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
4.Rollout123/21 22/16eq: -0.322 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
33.89% (G:6.03% B:0.89%)
66.11% (G:37.00% B:12.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.329...-0.316) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 13/7*.

Another play with many options. It seems that I erred earlier in not coming out with my 6. That is to be considered here as well. However, hitting with a 6 prevents my opponents from making much progress and may force them to hit me on my side of the board. If they dance, it still may be possible for me to form a good frontal position and then start hopping over their 4 prime.

So after hitting 13/7*, then 24/22 looks normal as it upgrades my anchor and aims at the outer board as well. However, a big split with 23/21 is to be considered as a try for better anchors or even a point in my opponent’s outer board. I’d try 23/21 for sure if they had a totally stripped 4 prime, but here they have a builder on their 6 point to attack my split checkers with. So I will make the natural looking play leaving me, for now, with anchors on their 3 and 2 points.



USBGF Members: 55 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 188
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-abb-BCBB---bD---babb-a-AA:1:-1:-1:54:9:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout18/4 8/3eq: -0.355
Player:
Opponent:
32.25% (G:7.34% B:1.15%)
67.75% (G:35.49% B:6.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.362...-0.348) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: -0.375 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
31.25% (G:6.40% B:1.16%)
68.75% (G:37.77% B:7.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.382...-0.368) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
3.Rollout113/9 8/3eq: -0.385 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
30.73% (G:7.60% B:1.40%)
69.27% (G:36.28% B:7.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.391...-0.379) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
4.Rollout113/8 7/3eq: -0.388 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
30.62% (G:8.57% B:1.52%)
69.38% (G:30.05% B:5.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.394...-0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 8/3.

This is not my best roll, but I can continue to play it constructively with 8/4 8/3 as I see nothing else worthy of consideration.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 179
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-abb-BCBB---bD----abbab-AA:1:-1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 207
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cDa--c-ba---AA:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/22eq: +0.265
Player:
Opponent:
63.25% (G:35.83% B:9.75%)
36.75% (G:6.13% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.258...+0.272) - [49.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: +0.265 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
63.23% (G:33.91% B:9.14%)
36.77% (G:8.12% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.257...+0.272) - [41.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24 13/11eq: +0.261 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
63.04% (G:35.25% B:9.11%)
36.96% (G:6.93% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.254...+0.267) - [8.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5eq: +0.252 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
62.58% (G:35.40% B:9.62%)
37.42% (G:6.31% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.244...+0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/22
[ 3] b/24 13/11
[ 2] b/23 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: b/22

b/22 is more or less the default play, though I took extra time on this to see if I could come up with a good reason to do anything else. That doesn’t seem to be the case, because our being caught flat-footed on the ace point and then blocked in seems more likely to cause us to crack eventually, than anything that might go wrong from this split position. b/22, and don’t spend too much time on a play like this over the board. That’s where time trouble comes from!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 207
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cDa--c-ba-A-A-:1:-1:-1:65:9:9:0:11:10
to play 65

1.xgRollout122/11eq: -0.292
Player:
Opponent:
35.41% (G:6.69% B:0.92%)
64.59% (G:35.01% B:9.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.298...-0.286) - [98.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout122/16 8/3*eq: -0.303 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
34.87% (G:5.50% B:0.88%)
65.13% (G:39.31% B:12.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.311...-0.295) - [1.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
3.playedRollout111/5 8/3*eq: -0.312 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
34.39% (G:6.25% B:0.87%)
65.61% (G:35.41% B:10.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.319...-0.306) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
4.Rollout122/16 13/8eq: -0.315 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
34.27% (G:5.04% B:0.84%)
65.73% (G:37.13% B:12.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.323...-0.306) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
5.Rollout122/16 11/6eq: -0.319 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
34.04% (G:5.93% B:0.74%)
65.96% (G:37.21% B:10.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.326...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/5 8/3*.

I have quite a difficult choice here. I play the 6 naturally and make my 5 point, and then I think the best 5 is 8/3* as 13/8 strips the mid point and I have to be wary of losing outfield presence for the moment.

However, I can also use this 6 for timing and hop 22/16. Then it is possible to go very blotty and hit 8/3* or to consolidate 16/11. I prefer 16/11, as after 8/3* I think my opponents are smart enough to hit the blots they want to hit and I may end up with half a dozen or more checkers almost primed.

22/11 looks like a good play to me here in with this likely backgame, but I don’t fancy forgoing my 5 point and just as important, I need that checker in my opponents board so I can hopefully make some better anchors than the 1 and 2 points.

For that reason, I play 11/5 8/3*.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 196
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cD---b-bb-a-AA:1:-1:1:25:9:9:0:11:10
to play 25

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 194
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-baa-BCBB---cDaa-c-ba---AA:1:-1:1:32:9:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout1Bar/22 13/11eq: +0.254
Player:
Opponent:
62.69% (G:33.55% B:7.53%)
37.31% (G:7.39% B:1.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.248...+0.260) - [75.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/20*eq: +0.250 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
62.52% (G:37.82% B:12.36%)
37.48% (G:6.23% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.243...+0.258) - [23.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 13/10eq: +0.244 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
62.18% (G:35.52% B:9.45%)
37.82% (G:7.35% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.237...+0.250) - [0.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 24/21eq: +0.243 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
62.15% (G:33.20% B:8.18%)
37.85% (G:8.13% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.237...+0.249) - [0.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/22 24/22eq: +0.243 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
62.14% (G:32.00% B:7.42%)
37.86% (G:7.11% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.237...+0.249) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/20*
[ 3] b/22 13/11
[ 2] b/22 24/22


Mary Hickey recommends: b/20*

Once again, a difficult call because it’s DMP. If we could win a gammon, the hit would be clear. I think it’s right here anyway, since he isn’t committed to a backgame yet. Hitting now will pretty much end his chances of winning going forward, which were still in the mix until now despite his four men back.

But even if he’s committed to a backgame, he doesn’t actually have one yet. He is favored, but not certain, to make a second point in our board this turn. If he doesn’t get one, we have decent chances of preventing it. And if he does get a backgame, that’s not exactly an instant win. We may be able to overtime it for him, by making a long, solid block and then sending more checkers back until he runs out of options and has to crash. Or the dice may do our job for us, handing him a couple of big doubles that cause him to crash without our having to do anything.

I have a feeling that the vote will go with the hit today, right or wrong, because there will be a split among the various non-hitting options. But even if one or more of the non-hitting options roll out better than the hit, the difference is likely to not only be small, but one that even XG can’t quite suss out. This will be a very complicated game, no matter what play we choose today, and a sufficiently strong rollout to find the difference (and that’s with near-perfect play!) could delay the OLM for a couple of weeks. No need for that, since no matter what the bot says, someone with a different view of the matter could be right in practice when humans play humans.

So let’s assume everybody was right today, as long as they weren’t too opinionated about it :0)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 214
             
11 point match
              pip: 154
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abaa-BCBB---cDaa-c-bA---A-:1:-1:-1:52:9:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 10/5*eq: -0.264
Player:
Opponent:
36.82% (G:6.10% B:0.92%)
63.18% (G:36.90% B:10.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.271...-0.256) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.293 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
35.33% (G:4.80% B:0.68%)
64.67% (G:39.82% B:11.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.301...-0.285) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 11/6eq: -0.302 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
34.91% (G:5.46% B:0.78%)
65.09% (G:38.38% B:10.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.309...-0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94484154
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 10/5*.

This is automatic as I enter bar/23 and hit 10/5*.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 207
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bba-BCBB---cDa--c-ba---AA:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 197
             
11 point match