USBGF OLM 2017-07-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 178
             
11 point match
              pip: 168
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---aE-C---dEa--c-ca---AA:1:-1:1:55:9:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20* 20/5*eq: +0.151
Player:
Opponent:
57.56% (G:23.86% B:2.58%)
42.44% (G:8.61% B:0.33%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20* 20/10 13/8eq: +0.103 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
55.17% (G:21.82% B:1.94%)
44.83% (G:9.49% B:0.37%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/20* 13/3 8/3eq: +0.100 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
55.01% (G:24.40% B:2.56%)
44.99% (G:9.28% B:0.35%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] b/20*/5*
[ 2] b/20* 13/3 8/3


Mary Hickey recommends: b/20*/5*

Hitting twice is clear. We continue the fight hard for the points we want before it gets at all dangerous to do so. The opening is the best time to do that! With a little luck, he’ll miss and we’ll cover, and then it will be more dangerous for him than for us to continue taking risks to make key points.



Neil Kazaross: 53 b/20* b/22


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 195
             
11 point match
              pip: 168
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-a-aE-C---dEa--c-c----AA:1:-1:1:46:9:9:0:11:10
to play 46

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:1:-1:1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedXG Roller++24/20*eq: +0.038
Player:
Opponent:
51.91% (G:15.89% B:1.02%)
48.09% (G:11.89% B:0.47%)
2.XG Roller++8/5 6/5eq: -0.003 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
49.83% (G:14.64% B:0.76%)
50.17% (G:14.84% B:0.76%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 24/20*
[ 2] 8/5 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/20*

I’m not a big fan of memorizing some huge table of opening roll responses, but this is one we all need to know: If the opponent slots his 5 point with his opening roll, then with a 31* response, it’s right to hit. This is true regardless of the score, and whether or not he was supposed to slot–for example, the rule also holds when your opponent slots his 5 point with a 62, 43 etc. as well as the more commonly seen slotting rolls 21, 41, and 51. This does not contradict the principle that “the 5 point is the 5 point,” because it prevents him from making his 5 point, while gaining in the race and also slotting the best defensive anchor. Too much good stuff to pass up! We can worry about making our own 5 point later.

* A response roll of 11 is often another story, because your alternative makes two good points, not just one. But we’ll leave that discussion for another day!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 184
             
11 point match
              pip: 163
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab----E-C---dEa--c-dA---A-:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20 6/5*eq: -0.039
Player:
Opponent:
48.06% (G:11.84% B:0.47%)
51.94% (G:16.71% B:1.27%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20 24/23eq: -0.113 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
44.33% (G:10.08% B:0.37%)
55.67% (G:17.23% B:1.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 6/5*.

This is automatic, as I can go after both 5 points.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 178
             
11 point match
              pip: 168
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---aE-C---dEa--c-ca---AA:1:-1:1:55:9:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Tues 7/18 930p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-07-16

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:00:9:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:49.67% (G:16.42% B:2.02%)49.87% (G:14.04% B:0.84%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:50.33% (G:16.12% B:1.84%)50.13% (G:14.07% B:0.65%)
  Cubeless Equities-0.001-0.007
Cubeful Equities
     No double:-0.019 (-0.011)
played Double/Take:-0.007
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.007)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] Double
[13] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

The Ph. D. mathematicians among us can prove beyond doubt that it’s always right to double at the first opportunity at 2-away, 2-away. QED! They are right in theory, but that doesn’t mean it’s always best in practice. Against an expert, though, we can’t go far wrong doubling right away at this score, and that’s how I voted today.

The times where there’s a defensible case for waiting tend to be when you get a good opening roll, your opponent doesn’t double and rolls something lame, and you have the opportunity to play on for the gammon or else to get them to take a pass or pass a take later. Alternatively, they may reach a position so overwhelming that they double you out, and you’re still alive to come back and win the match. How do you know that it might work out better to wait? The fact that for whatever reason, they didn’t double you at their first opportunity! If they were playing the mathematically correct strategy, they would have doubled immediately because they know it’s “right”; therefore, they must have something else in mind.

In such a case, or in one where you know from experience that your opponent won’t double after your response to his opener, a waiting strategy really something you should try? In theory, no, and in practice, not often. But if your opponent appears to have every intention of messing around trying to get you to make an error also, it just might work. Even then, though, use caution and consider both the opponent and the specifics of the position.

I forget which year it was, but I won Player of the Year at the Ohio State club because of a Conso final that decided it, and that was how it ended–a three-game 2-away 2-away! He doubled me out of the first game, then I tied it up in the second, and won the DMP. If I had doubled right away, I would probably have lost. That’s not just playing the results, at least not in my mind, because I was quite sure waiting was the equity play. My experience with this opponent was that he definitely would continue “messing around” at the score for a long time, and that by the time he doubled me, if it came to that, it would most likely be a clear pass at the score. I also believed that if I gained an advantage, my chances of getting him to make a cube error either way were decent, and that if the game went my way I might increase my match equity by that means. If instead I doubled him into a take and he took, it would be no harm, no foul for my having waited. What was not to like?

But when in any doubt, just double and avoid difficult decisions later. You also benefit by taking no risk of zoning out near the end of a long match and forgetting about the cube!


Neil Kazaross takes.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:1:-1:1:31:9:9:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 73
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBAA---A---b-Bdcbb-b-:1:1:1:22:9:7:0:11:10
to play 22

1.xgRollout112/10 8/4 7/5eq: -0.756
Player:
Opponent:
12.47% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
87.53% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.757...-0.755) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds
2.playedRollout112/4eq: -0.764 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
12.16% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
87.84% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.765...-0.763) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 12/4
[12] 12/10 8/4 7/5
[ 1] 12/6 7/5
[ 1] 8/4 7/3


Mary Hickey recommends: 12/10 8/4 7/5

Covering the 4 point can’t be wrong, can it? Let’s start there, with 8/4! After that, we have a choice of 12/8 or 12/10 7/5. Both are good for our future bearoff, but there’s a viglet favoring the latter play: What if we get our shot now, and hit it with a roll where the other die is a 5 or a 6? We can’t “hide” both checkers from our 7 and 8 points, so we will be leaving a potentially disastrous return shot for him from the bar in those cases. Since we will also have left two loose checkers in his outer board, if we don’t get back on the board immediately, a return shot like that could even lead to a freak gammon loss that was preventable at this turn.

12/10 8/4 7/5 looks like the play, though the difference may be so tiny that it’s in the fourth decimal place.



Neil Kazaross: 43 9/6 9/5
USBGF Members: 31 18/15 7/6
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 43 18/14 15/12
Neil Kazaross: 52 6/4 5/0
USBGF Members: 55 14/4 12/7 8/3
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 62 7/5 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 21 4/2 1/0
USBGF Members: 33 3/0(4)
Neil Kazaross: 22 6/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 43 5/2 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 66 6/0 5/0 4/0(2)
USBGF Members: 32 6/3 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 65 3/0(2)


Neil Kazaross wins two points, and the match is tied 2-away/2-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 6/5.

I almost always slot an opening 21 unless way ahead in the match at some scores.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:00:9:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 77
             
11 point match
              pip: 106
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBA-----B--c-Bdbbb-b-:1:1:1:51:9:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.Rollout113/8 3/2eq: -0.811
Player:
Opponent:
10.00% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
90.00% (G:0.54% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.812...-0.810) - [99.5%]
Duration: 5 minutes 12 seconds
2.xgRollout113/8 7/6eq: -0.813 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
9.82% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
90.18% (G:0.46% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.814...-0.812) - [0.4%]
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds
3.playedRollout113/12 13/8eq: -0.813 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
9.79% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
90.21% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.814...-0.812) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout113/8 5/4eq: -0.820 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
9.54% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
90.46% (G:0.54% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.821...-0.819) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 31 seconds
5.Rollout17/2 3/2eq: -0.821 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
9.75% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
90.25% (G:0.80% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.822...-0.820) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 12 seconds
6.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: -0.825 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
9.34% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
90.66% (G:0.61% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.827...-0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 54 seconds
7.Rollout113/7eq: -0.826 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
9.29% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
90.71% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.827...-0.825) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 13/12 13/8
[ 9] 13/8 7/6
[ 4] 13/8 3/2
[ 3] 7/2 3/2
[ 1] 13/8 2/1
[ 1] 13/8 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/12 13/8

The chance we get a shot has shrunk so much that it doesn’t seem terribly important to complete a five point board by making the 2 point. Our racing chances don’t look wonderful either, but they may not be as bad as the pip count difference alone suggests. If he rolls a bunch of numbers that include 2s and 1s, he may waste pips inside to avoid leaving a shot, and also delay the start of his bearoff. That benefits us because who knows, we might boom away with a big double at just the right time–stranger things have happened. Once again, we have a difficult balance to find, this time between our limited chance to get a shot vs. a not very inspiring race.

Of the two, though, playing for the race also plays to minimize the very small chance we get gammoned if he’s the one that booms past us with doubles. For me today, that’s the swing factor regarding which game plan to maximize.

With both gammon avoidance and winning the bearoff in mind, I think 7/2 should not be our 5. That wastes pips, and we can’t afford to waste any without a good reason. 13/8 is a perfectly acceptable 5, so let’s start by saying that’s how we’re playing it, and look for the best ace. There are three decent ones available: the distribution-smoothing 3/2, and the crossover-making 7/6 or 13/12. If we want to quibble about which of them is best, that’s fine because that’s part of what we’re here for :0) But I think any one of them is perfectly all right to do. I picked 13/12 but have no beef with either of the other two.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 77
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBAA---A---c-Bdbbb-b-:1:1:-1:31:9:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout16/2eq: +0.758
Player:
Opponent:
87.58% (G:0.31% B:0.01%)
12.42% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.757...+0.759) - [99.9%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
2.playedRollout19/5eq: +0.755 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
87.39% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
12.61% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.754...+0.756) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/5.

Two plays have merit. 1) The straightforward 9/5, hoping to not roll 62 or 61 next. 2) 6/2 hoping to stall a turn or two and roll a double to clear with never having any blotting risk.

I’d play 6/2 with a huge race lead, but here I will try 9/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 73
             
11 point match
              pip: 100
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBAA---A---b-Bdcbb-b-:1:1:1:22:9:7:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sat 7/15 1145p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-07-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BAABBA--b-B--c-Bbbbb-b-:1:1:1:43:9:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout18/4 7/4eq: -0.492
Player:
Opponent:
28.42% (G:1.03% B:0.05%)
71.58% (G:3.03% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.495...-0.489) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 54 seconds
2.playedRollout18/5 7/3eq: -0.507 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
27.86% (G:1.10% B:0.06%)
72.14% (G:3.19% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.509...-0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 24 seconds
3.Rollout17/4 7/3eq: -0.507 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
27.65% (G:1.25% B:0.06%)
72.35% (G:3.02% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.510...-0.505) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 59 seconds
4.Rollout18/4 5/2eq: -0.511 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
28.37% (G:1.15% B:0.03%)
71.63% (G:3.94% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.514...-0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 49 seconds
5.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.540 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
23.77% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
76.23% (G:0.79% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.543...-0.538) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 8/5 7/3
[ 6] 8/4 7/4
[ 6] 8/4 5/2
[ 2] 7/4 7/3
[ 1] 13/10 13/9


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5 7/3

We can’t make both our missing high points, but we can make the 5, so unless the other half of the roll plays badly, that’s a good starting point. The only other play for the other half of the roll is 7/3, and that is a bit awkward, so I’ll try making the 4 point instead and see what the 3 does: either 8/4 or 7/3. Neither of those choices looks special either.

What can break the three-way tie? Not the covering duplication of the possible hit with a 2, because he’s not likely to be forced to “pay now” on this turn, nor to choose to do so. I’m OK with leaving 2s to cover. So what I’ll look for next is duplications of our rolls to cover versus rolls that make the 2 point. Now 8/5 7/3 wins, but with an asterisk–until we bring the midpoint down, what rolls are we going to use to make the 5 point with a 3 anyway? Just 32 and 31, probably. This diversification doesn’t seem to be much of a big deal.

How about other factors, including how well the roll plays for our future bearoff? Now 8/4 7/4 looks better. It puts that awkward, semi-dillied spare that we can’t avoid without making plays we don’t like at all, such as bringing the midpoint down, onto our 4 point. That is better for the bearoff than on the 3 point given the same number of pips total. (We have to include that disclaimer, because otherwise we’d just be Captain Obvious and say our ideal bearoff is all fifteen on the ace point! But then, when I pointed out this difference to one student, he quickly rejoined with, “Not me, I’d rather start with all fifteen already in the bearoff tray” :0) True enough, yes?)

As with yesterday’s decision, these small factors (Marty might call them “viglets”) favoring one reasonable play over another are hard to quantify and compare. I had to vote for something, so I picked 8/5 7/3, with the tiebreaker for me being Kit’s famous backgammon identity axiom, “The 5 point is the 5 point.” I don’t see anything much to like about 7/4 7/3, but I do think 8/4 7/4 is a decent contender because of where it puts the spare. Once again, as long as we don’t do break our midpoint and prematurely release the pressure on his backward point, I don’t think we’re going to do anything awful here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 106
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBA---b-B--c-Bbbbb-b-:1:1:-1:44:9:7:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout114/6(2)eq: +0.783
Player:
Opponent:
88.71% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
11.29% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.781...+0.784) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout114/10(2) 9/5 6/2eq: +0.721 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
85.31% (G:0.72% B:0.03%)
14.69% (G:0.36% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.719...+0.722) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout114/10(2) 9/1eq: +0.710 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
84.86% (G:0.65% B:0.03%)
15.14% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.709...+0.712) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/6(2).

14/6(2) with this joker gives me a nearly won game.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 77
             
11 point match
              pip: 106
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-CABBA-----B--c-Bdbbb-b-:1:1:1:51:9:7:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 96
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-B--CBB--b-B-ab-Bcbab-b-:1:1:1:41:9:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/4 6/5eq: -0.558
Player:
Opponent:
25.56% (G:1.50% B:0.02%)
74.44% (G:3.48% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.561...-0.556) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 7/6eq: -0.568 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
24.55% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
75.45% (G:2.93% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.570...-0.565) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout17/2eq: -0.578 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
24.63% (G:0.87% B:0.03%)
75.37% (G:3.51% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.581...-0.575) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 37 seconds
4.Rollout17/3 6/5eq: -0.582 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
23.36% (G:0.84% B:0.00%)
76.64% (G:2.48% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.585...-0.580) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 37 seconds
5.Rollout18/7 8/4eq: -0.587 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
23.31% (G:0.94% B:0.01%)
76.69% (G:2.64% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.589...-0.584) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 29 seconds
6.Rollout18/3eq: -0.594 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
23.57% (G:1.05% B:0.02%)
76.43% (G:3.25% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.596...-0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 19 seconds
7.Rollout17/6 7/3eq: -0.596 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
22.90% (G:0.77% B:0.00%)
77.10% (G:2.73% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.599...-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 13 seconds
8.Rollout18/7 6/2eq: -0.602 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
23.03% (G:1.03% B:0.00%)
76.97% (G:3.15% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.605...-0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 08 seconds
9.Rollout16/2 3/2eq: -0.609 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
22.97% (G:0.73% B:0.00%)
77.03% (G:3.44% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.612...-0.607) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 24 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 8/4 6/5
[ 7] 8/7 8/4
[ 2] 7/2
[ 2] 8/4 7/6
[ 1] 7/6 7/3
[ 1] 6/2 3/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/2

This is a tough call, playing for the win, but not too hard and “purely” because multiple blots could lead to gammons, but not forgetting about the race, either, since we’re behind but still alive in it. There are quite a few plays that make sense for various reasons on our side of the board, but I picked 7/2 because: a) it leaves only one blot in our home, and only two total; 2) if we don’t hit next turn, it leaves us with good small numbers making the high points and good large ones covering the 2; and 3) (less important, but a factor anyway) if we get a shot, we know for sure it will not be a 6 or a 5, so I like having those be covering numbers.

These reasons are good, but light in weight, so some other reasonable choice might be better for some other reason, also light but a bit heavier than these. There isn’t any slam-dunk choice, so try to sort out the delicate balance among hits, the race, and avoiding gammons, and you’ll be good. And yes, that is easier said than done!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 96
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BAABBA--b-B-ab-Bcbab-b-:1:1:-1:21:9:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout110/9 6/4eq: +0.448
Player:
Opponent:
69.94% (G:2.45% B:0.09%)
30.06% (G:1.13% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.446...+0.449) - [90.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout110/8 6/5eq: +0.446 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
69.84% (G:2.48% B:0.09%)
30.16% (G:1.29% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.445...+0.448) - [8.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.Rollout110/8 5/4eq: +0.446 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
69.71% (G:2.57% B:0.08%)
30.29% (G:1.25% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.444...+0.447) - [0.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
4.Rollout210/8 9/8eq: +0.438 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
68.59% (G:3.30% B:0.10%)
31.41% (G:1.95% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.435...+0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16846700
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/9 6/4.

10/9 6/4 looks to be automatic but on more detailed inspection maybe I can try 10/8 9/8 to make things somewhat easier to clear. With what 2’s will they hit me with after I make the 8 point? Well 22 wrecks me and they probably hit with 21, but hitting with 23 or 24 looks risky at gammon save. I am not sure if it is worth this slight risk since 10/9 6/4 makes a 5 point board which will often make any hit I can make a gammon win.

10/9 6/4 just looks fine and can’t possibly be far wrong, so I will go with that simple play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BAABBA--b-B--c-Bbbbb-b-:1:1:1:43:9:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 104
             
11 point match
              pip: 123
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-B--DBBb-a-B--b-Bcbab-b-:1:1:1:41:9:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/1eq: -0.389
Player:
Opponent:
35.04% (G:2.70% B:0.06%)
64.96% (G:4.50% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.393...-0.386) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 16 seconds
2.xgRollout18/4 6/5eq: -0.411 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
32.63% (G:2.78% B:0.12%)
67.37% (G:3.17% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.414...-0.408) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 11357183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 6/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 6/1

We have the chance now to cover the ace point using a spare from the 6 point, and should do so. Then if there’s a blot hanging around in the outer boards next turn, we’re in better shape to hit it, since we won’t be leaving so many blots ourselves that we’ll be taking too much gammon risk to do so. If it turns out we’re unable to contain that blot once we hit it, that may be all right because the gain we make in the race by hitting might be enough to let us win that way instead, without a closeout. We’re behind now, but not by a huge margin.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 104
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-B--CBBb-a-B--b-Bcbab-b-:1:1:-1:62:9:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout116/14 16/10eq: +0.404
Player:
Opponent:
63.60% (G:6.59% B:0.24%)
36.40% (G:3.29% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.401...+0.407) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 19 seconds
2.Rollout114/6eq: +0.384 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
64.71% (G:4.48% B:0.15%)
35.29% (G:2.26% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.381...+0.387) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout114/8 6/4eq: +0.377 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
63.19% (G:5.67% B:0.13%)
36.81% (G:2.77% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.374...+0.381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 11357183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/14 16/10.

I am up 22 pips after this roll, so I should look to continue the plan of coming around and trying to get my checkers home for the bear off. If I play 16/14 16/10, I advance along that plan and my outfield points will give me return shots if the 13 number shot is hit with anything other than a 33 joker. This seems to me to be the best way forward and makes more sense than either 14/8 6/4 or 14/6.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 96
             
11 point match
              pip: 118
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-B--CBB--b-B-ab-Bcbab-b-:1:1:1:41:9:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 111
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-aDCBb---B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:1:51:9:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout17/2 3/2eq: -0.346
Player:
Opponent:
37.49% (G:3.06% B:0.15%)
62.51% (G:4.82% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.348...-0.345) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 09 minutes
2.playedRollout17/1eq: -0.352 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
37.34% (G:3.07% B:0.13%)
62.66% (G:4.93% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.353...-0.350) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout28/7 8/3eq: -0.367 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
36.14% (G:2.52% B:0.00%)
63.86% (G:4.49% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.371...-0.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 01 second
4.Rollout26/1 3/2eq: -0.397 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
33.92% (G:2.16% B:0.04%)
66.08% (G:3.75% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.400...-0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 20 seconds
5.Rollout28/2eq: -0.636 (-0.289)
Player:
Opponent:
32.70% (G:3.37% B:0.37%)
67.30% (G:14.49% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.640...-0.632) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 03 seconds
6.Rollout28/3 7/6eq: -0.650 (-0.304)
Player:
Opponent:
31.49% (G:2.80% B:0.21%)
68.51% (G:14.01% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.654...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 56 seconds
7.Rollout27/6 7/2eq: -0.659 (-0.313)
Player:
Opponent:
32.47% (G:3.73% B:0.14%)
67.53% (G:15.43% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.663...-0.655) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 19 seconds
8.Rollout28/7 6/1eq: -0.689 (-0.342)
Player:
Opponent:
30.70% (G:3.50% B:0.24%)
69.30% (G:15.14% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.693...-0.684) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 45 seconds
9.Rollout218/13 7/6eq: -0.726 (-0.379)
Player:
Opponent:
32.52% (G:3.81% B:0.28%)
67.48% (G:18.80% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.730...-0.722) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 42 seconds
10.Rollout213/8 6/5*eq: -0.732 (-0.385)
Player:
Opponent:
42.47% (G:8.42% B:0.97%)
57.53% (G:29.06% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.737...-0.727) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 40 seconds
11.Rollout213/12 13/8eq: -0.736 (-0.390)
Player:
Opponent:
30.87% (G:3.84% B:0.38%)
69.13% (G:17.68% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.741...-0.732) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 21 seconds
12.Rollout218/17 18/13eq: -0.742 (-0.396)
Player:
Opponent:
32.53% (G:3.73% B:0.39%)
67.47% (G:19.64% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.746...-0.738) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 43 seconds
13.Rollout213/7eq: -0.745 (-0.398)
Player:
Opponent:
31.33% (G:4.01% B:0.32%)
68.67% (G:18.57% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.749...-0.740) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 41 seconds
14.Rollout213/8 7/6eq: -0.756 (-0.409)
Player:
Opponent:
30.68% (G:3.97% B:0.47%)
69.32% (G:18.47% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.760...-0.752) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 23 seconds
15.Rollout28/3 6/5*eq: -0.820 (-0.473)
Player:
Opponent:
36.22% (G:6.35% B:0.49%)
63.78% (G:27.20% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.825...-0.815) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 21 seconds
16.Rollout218/13 6/5*eq: -0.855 (-0.508)
Player:
Opponent:
38.77% (G:6.33% B:0.61%)
61.23% (G:31.50% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.860...-0.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 11357183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 11357183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 7/1 (coin flip!)
[13] 7/2 3/2
[ 1] 8/7 8/3
[ 1] 18/17 18/13
[ 1] 13/8 6/5*
[ 1] 18/13 6/5*


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/1

Hitting is too risky, and isn’t guaranteed to “work” even if we are missed. He still has the 4 point to enter on as well as the 5, and if he enters and sits there, we might have another choice like this one to make–cover and hit loose, or point on him still leaving a blot on the 5 point. We might even find ourselves unable to either hit or cover, and then we’re in a bad spot even if he enters in the back of our board or stays out.

Once again, we have safe options that are reasonable, if not exactly special. We can make the 2 point, shifting to having a blot on the 3, or we can play 7/1. I like 7/1 a little better because it avoids losing the 3 point to make a point 6 away from the top of our outside block, which is undesirable because the 8 and 2 cannot be part of the same prime. But since we’re likely to let the 8 point go soon anyway, and we may never reach a point where we’re blocking in an enemy checker with a prime, that’s not as big a deal as it is in the game’s earlier stages where priming is more likely to happen than it is here. I voted for 7/1, but making the 2 point is fine–just don’t hit and we’ll be doing the right thing.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 111
             
11 point match
              pip: 123
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-B-aDBBb---B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:-1:61:9:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout120/14 5/4eq: +0.338
Player:
Opponent:
62.86% (G:4.05% B:0.16%)
37.14% (G:2.48% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.335...+0.341) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout120/14 6/5eq: +0.309 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
61.41% (G:4.07% B:0.15%)
38.59% (G:2.81% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.306...+0.313) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout120/14 3/2eq: +0.307 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
59.55% (G:5.78% B:0.15%)
40.45% (G:4.72% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.303...+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 44 seconds
4.Rollout120/13eq: +0.302 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
60.76% (G:4.33% B:0.17%)
39.24% (G:3.29% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.299...+0.305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 11357183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/14 5/4.

This is a decent roll for me, as out I come heading for home with my spare checker with 20/14 and then I can play 5/4 slotting a good point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 104
             
11 point match
              pip: 123
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-B--DBBb-a-B--b-Bcbab-b-:1:1:1:41:9:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abECC----B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:1:53:9:7:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.162
Player:
Opponent:
47.89% (G:5.24% B:0.19%)
52.11% (G:5.97% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.166...-0.157) - [100.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout17/2 6/3eq: -0.242 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
43.64% (G:4.32% B:0.14%)
56.36% (G:5.71% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.245...-0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: -0.261 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
43.50% (G:5.22% B:0.14%)
56.50% (G:6.53% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.264...-0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 17 seconds
4.Rollout118/15 18/13eq: -0.326 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:
42.99% (G:2.74% B:0.07%)
57.01% (G:9.28% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.330...-0.322) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 69024107
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/3 6/3


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/3 6/3

Once again, we have a completely shot-free alternative that’s reasonable, so our choice is clear. Since we aren’t sure who’s holding whom now, we are in no rush to get off our bar point anchor. This is especially true when doing so leaves gammonish shots, as it would here. Making the 3 point is an effective play that reduces our huge deficit in board strength, and includes using a checker from the oversized stack on our 6 point to do it. Nothing not to like!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BabDCB----B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:-1:54:9:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout121/16 20/16eq: +0.171
Player:
Opponent:
53.66% (G:4.87% B:0.16%)
46.34% (G:5.74% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.167...+0.175) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout121/16 6/2eq: +0.137 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
50.68% (G:6.19% B:0.22%)
49.32% (G:5.59% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.134...+0.141) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 69024107
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/16 20/16.

There are some things to notice about this position. 1) I am up 18 pips after this roll. 2) I have few spare pips to play on my side of the board without soon being forced to harm my structure if I cannot hop a back checker out conveniently. 3) The score is gammon go for me and the road to winning said gammon starts with hitting a blot.

Everything points to moving forward by making the 16 point. Unfortunately this leaves my opponents 9 rolls to point on me, but the other 27 do not so I strongly feel that I have to take this risk. I may even be able to survive being pointed on, but their 22 and 33 will often wreck me.

The only alternative I see is 21/16 6/2 but that looks too feeble and doesn’t properly address the fact that I need to move forward.

21/16 20/16 just seems like a must for me here, especially at the score.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 111
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-aDCBb---B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:1:51:9:7:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abECB----B-AbbBbb-b-b-:1:1:1:43:9:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout115/8eq: -0.248
Player:
Opponent:
42.79% (G:4.29% B:0.31%)
57.21% (G:5.20% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.252...-0.244) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout17/3 6/3eq: -0.365 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
44.58% (G:5.28% B:0.43%)
55.42% (G:12.82% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.369...-0.360) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout118/15 18/14eq: -0.396 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:
42.08% (G:3.61% B:0.14%)
57.92% (G:11.88% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.401...-0.391) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.490 (-0.242)
Player:
Opponent:
39.51% (G:5.37% B:0.25%)
60.49% (G:14.01% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.495...-0.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 06 seconds
5.Rollout18/4* 7/4eq: -0.523 (-0.274)
Player:
Opponent:
43.44% (G:5.98% B:0.58%)
56.56% (G:19.57% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.528...-0.517) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 20536239
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 15/8
[ 4] 7/3 6/3
[ 2] 8/4* 7/4
[ 1] 18/15 18/14


Mary Hickey recommends: 15/8

Once again, Neil has rolled a double that makes it necessary for us to play safe. Leaving the anchor also means leaving seven shots, and in return all we get is the 15 point that doesn’t block much of anything. It’s more dangerous to be hit now, because his board is stronger, and so we need to get more “bang for the buck” if we leave more shots than we have to. Even at the score and with his board being bigger, we might be willing to leave a couple of extra shots for a solid positional gain, but here we would be leaving seven more shots than the reasonable alternative that is fighting it, 15/8. Seven is a lot more than “a couple” of shots, and the gain is small, so 15/8 is the winner.

A note about making the 3 point: We’d like to have it, but we have to leave five shots if we make it. The gain is real, but it’s for the future, and before the future arrives we’re likely to fill in at least some of our inner board. We have plenty of well-arranged builders, and are likely to get at least a couple of turns to do it. Making our board is important but not urgent, so we can wait to do it until next turn when we likely can do it without leaving any shots.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abECC----B--bbBbb-b-b-:1:1:-1:32:9:7:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/6 8/5eq: +0.171
Player:
Opponent:
52.85% (G:5.71% B:0.22%)
47.15% (G:5.00% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.167...+0.175) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout19/4eq: +0.116 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
49.15% (G:6.67% B:0.23%)
50.85% (G:5.62% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.112...+0.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 20536239
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/6 8/5.

I had hoped to hop my spare on the 21 point into the outfield. But now I need to wait for next roll and it is important to leave no new blots. So, I’ll play the building play: 8/6 8/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abECC----B--b-Bcc-b-b-:1:1:1:53:9:7:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---bECB----B--cbAcbB--b-:1:1:1:63:9:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout121/18 21/15eq: -0.282
Player:
Opponent:
47.81% (G:5.73% B:0.52%)
52.19% (G:11.92% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.288...-0.277) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout118/15 13/7eq: -0.380 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
40.27% (G:6.01% B:0.18%)
59.73% (G:9.27% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.384...-0.376) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout118/9eq: -0.386 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
40.13% (G:6.18% B:0.38%)
59.87% (G:9.44% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.391...-0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout118/12 6/3eq: -0.431 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:
39.73% (G:6.01% B:0.28%)
60.27% (G:11.27% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.435...-0.426) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 20536239
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 21/18 21/15
[ 1] 18/12 6/3
[ 1] 18/15 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 21/18 21/15

Once again, we have to shift gears and play from where we are, not from where we were. Now we have an opportunity to try to play the game as primarily a race by leaving his board, 21/15 21/18. This leaves us with a lesser holding game anchor if it turns out we need it, but our game plan isn’t holding once we make this play. We want to have our outfield checkers work together to help one another get home, closing in on his anchor and back checker, and possibly blocking the spare’s escape long enough for his already imperfect forward position to crash at least a little. We’d like that to happen before we are forced to leave any direct shots, and maybe it will, who knows? But we’ll be happy to settle for a close race that we win by one checker :0)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---bECB----B-AcbBcb---b-:1:1:-1:33:9:7:0:11:10
to play 33

1.Rollout18/2(2)eq: +0.280
Player:
Opponent:
52.85% (G:11.13% B:0.21%)
47.15% (G:5.03% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.278...+0.282) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 45 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 9/3 6/3eq: +0.275 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
55.98% (G:7.76% B:0.18%)
44.02% (G:4.31% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.273...+0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 23 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 20536239
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 9/3 6/3.

At a typical score, it would be automatic to make my 3 point and advance 24/21, as I now have a decent lead in pips and need to aim at the outfield and hopefully move into it very soon.

Here, at gammon go, making my 2 point and retaining more contact has merit as it should win more gammons but at the cost of more losses. However, my opponents don’t then have all that many bad rolls and I may soon have to compromise either my anchor or my forward position.

At gammon go, I am still unsure of the play, but will play it safe and go with the natural looking 24/21 9/3 6/3, which can’t be far wrong.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abECB----B-AbbBbb-b-b-:1:1:1:43:9:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-07-02

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 135
             
11 point match
              pip: 146
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---bECB--A-B--bbacbB--b-:1:1:1:43:9:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout17/3 6/3eq: -0.312
Player:
Opponent:
45.00% (G:8.80% B:1.09%)
55.00% (G:10.62% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.317...-0.308) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout111/8 6/2eq: -0.334 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
42.62% (G:7.26% B:0.54%)
57.38% (G:9.32% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.338...-0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout111/7 6/3eq: -0.336 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
42.49% (G:7.21% B:0.56%)
57.51% (G:9.30% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.341...-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 56 seconds
4.Rollout111/8 7/3eq: -0.345 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
42.24% (G:7.55% B:0.29%)
57.76% (G:9.49% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.350...-0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout111/4eq: -0.367 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
41.38% (G:6.90% B:0.47%)
58.62% (G:9.72% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.371...-0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 09 seconds
6.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: -0.419 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
40.22% (G:6.29% B:0.40%)
59.78% (G:11.16% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.423...-0.414) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 59 seconds
7.Rollout121/18* 11/7eq: -0.464 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
48.97% (G:14.59% B:1.73%)
51.03% (G:22.18% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.472...-0.457) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 02 seconds
8.Rollout113/10 11/7eq: -0.496 (-0.184)
Player:
Opponent:
37.68% (G:6.59% B:0.52%)
62.32% (G:12.50% B:1.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.501...-0.492) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 03 seconds
9.playedRollout121/18* 18/14eq: -0.573 (-0.260)
Player:
Opponent:
46.04% (G:12.66% B:1.58%)
53.96% (G:24.69% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.579...-0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 75337098
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 21/18*/14
[12] 7/3 6/3
[ 3] 21/18* 11/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/3 6/3

Last move the games vs. gammons tradeoff at this score favored playing forward, but Neil’s excellent 44 is a game-changer for us. Sending a fourth man back isn’t a priority now that he is anchored on our 5 point, because he can recover so much more easily from a hit. He also just brought two more checkers to the Zone to attack us if we break the anchor, increasing our gammon risk no matter what we do with the accompanying 4 (Picking up 11/7 is probably the better choice, because it prevents his hitting with tempo 20/14*, avoids giving him a good 6 in the first place, and decreases our blot count from three to just two.)

Another problem we have because of Neil’s shiny new anchor is that the pile of builders on our 6 point is now constrained, unable to make the point we want most because he’s on it. There is an old backgammon saying not to make points behind the opponent’s advanced anchor, but it has so many exceptions that I’m not sure why it’s still floating around in the BG-ether. But if they don’t make points behind him, what are those constrained builders supposed to do? We have a chance to use one of them, plus the spare on the bar point, to some advantage by making the 3 point, and this looks to be the kind of safe, solid move we need right now. We have to like the blot count better, too: just one, while keeping an advanced anchor for insurance in case it’s hit.

Looks like today we need to shift gears to playing primarily defense, and make a point in our home with 7/3 6/3.



Neil Kazaross: 65 b/14*
USBGF Members: 43 b/21 14/11*
Neil Kazaross: 61 b/24 20/14*
USBGF Members: 43 b/18
Neil Kazaross: 54 24/20 14/9


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---bECB----B--cbAcbB--b-:1:1:1:63:9:7:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 151
             
11 point match
              pip: 149
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-c----ECB---bC---bacbAA-b-:1:1:1:21:9:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout17/5 6/5eq: +0.082
Player:
Opponent:
67.98% (G:24.82% B:5.91%)
32.02% (G:13.87% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.077...+0.087) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 13 seconds
2.playedRollout122/21 13/11eq: +0.019 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
59.74% (G:17.76% B:2.53%)
40.26% (G:8.81% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.013...+0.024) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 43113791
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 22/21 13/11
[15] 7/5 6/5
[ 1] 22/21 7/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/5 6/5

The issues are clear here, since there are only two plays that make sense and they serve entirely different ends. Making the 5 point completes a solid four point block against his three back checkers, great for offense but leaving Frick and Frack under attack on the other side of the board. 22/21 13/11 defends the back men but does very little on offense, leaving us with a big stack on the 6 point and only a one point board. Making the 5 point has to win more games, but anchoring has to save more gammons. Which one wins the tradeoff?

For money, making the 5 point would be clear. It looks right here, too, because of the effective use of our builders and the way our block will make it very hard for him to get his three stacked back men into action. Even if he points on us and we fan, we are likely to have plenty of time to recover. He will have to get quite lucky to manage a closeout with only twelve checkers, or to get at least one of those back men into action before we can do something on defense–either anchoring or hitting a fourth checker.

But even given all that, there’s a solid case for anchoring up because of the score. Cultivating just the right amount of gammon-fear at gammon save scores is not an easy balancing act. Knowing that the tradeoff is 1 to 1 instead of approximately .5 to 1 is good, but it doesn’t always provide the answer. Here, the offensive play is just so perfect that it feels right despite the danger, but this wouldn’t be true if the offensive play were unsatisfactory in some way. For example, if we rolled 31 but for some reason couldn’t hit, we could get the 5 point but it would cost us our 8 point, leaving a blot there. Then it would most likely be better to anchor up and play 13/10.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 151
             
11 point match
              pip: 146
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-c----ECB--AbB---bacbB--b-:1:1:-1:44:9:7:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout124/20(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.271
Player:
Opponent:
54.61% (G:8.93% B:0.54%)
45.39% (G:8.37% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.266...+0.276) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout124/20(3) 7/3eq: +0.227 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
54.49% (G:6.87% B:0.52%)
45.51% (G:5.56% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.223...+0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout124/20(2) 24/16eq: +0.226 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
53.69% (G:7.62% B:0.34%)
46.31% (G:7.84% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.222...+0.230) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 45 seconds
4.Rollout124/20(2) 7/3 6/2eq: +0.220 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
50.57% (G:10.44% B:0.51%)
49.43% (G:10.29% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.215...+0.225) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 23 seconds
5.Rollout124/16(2)eq: +0.220 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
51.86% (G:9.12% B:0.48%)
48.14% (G:12.18% B:1.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.215...+0.224) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 43113791
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 (2) 13/9(2).

These great 4’s would be automatic at a normal score but here when a gammon win is as valuable as a single win and a gammon loss is meaningless compared to a single loss, I should consider complications.

By playing 24/20(2) 13/9(2), I put my opponents under considerably more total board pressure, and many of their next rolls leave at least a blot. The 3 shot I leave on my bar point is risky for them to hit with other than 33 which is a fine roll for them anyhow.

I will go for complications at gammon go with 24/20(2) 13/9(2).


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 135
             
11 point match
              pip: 146
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---bECB--A-B--bbacbB--b-:1:1:1:43:9:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----EBB---cD---b-cbaB-b-:1:1:1:61:9:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 6/5eq: -0.242
Player:
Opponent:
50.04% (G:13.15% B:1.28%)
49.96% (G:12.14% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.244...-0.240) - [76.1%]
Duration: 4 hours 43 minutes
2.playedRollout122/21* 13/7eq: -0.243 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
54.09% (G:17.02% B:3.02%)
45.91% (G:16.25% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.246...-0.241) - [23.9%]
Duration: 5 hours 20 minutes
3.Rollout222/16 22/21*eq: -0.280 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
54.26% (G:15.66% B:2.72%)
45.74% (G:18.26% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.286...-0.274) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 42 seconds
4.Rollout222/21* 21/15eq: -0.285 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
54.09% (G:15.78% B:2.50%)
45.91% (G:18.35% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.291...-0.279) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 43113791
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 43113791
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 22/21* 13/7
[ 6] 13/7 6/5
[ 4] 22/21* 22/16
[ 1] 22/21*/15


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/21* 13/7

Should we hit or not? Hitting is good because of the race, and because it may never be safer than now, for all we know. But there is a very reasonable and constructive non-hitting play available, 13/7 6/5, which preserves our defense and sets us up to play better on offense if our slot isn’t hit. There is also duplication of his hit-and-cover 4s, which probably doesn’t matter much; this is one of the least important types of duplication, and seldom swings a lot of weight equity-wise.

I don’t like the non-hit, though, because it lets him “hit with tempo” with his 4s. Even if his hitting 4 doesn’t escape, he major-splits his back men in relative safety by hitting, and that represents some tempo (game time) also. If it turns out we really hate the hitting plays, we can always come back to this idea, but let’s look at them before we try to sell the non-hit to ourselves.

If we hit 22/21* with the ace, then we have three reasonable choices for the 6. We can run either of the back men into the outfield, or we can play 13/7. If he were ready to blitz both our back men off the board, stepping out might be better (though of course in that case, so might not hitting!) but here, where he has to enter with half his roll, leaving both back checkers where they are looks OK. The main reason to choose that option doesn’t have a lot to do with his potential attack, though; it has to do with ours!

Once we play 13/7, we are not playing primarily defense any more, the way we were when we made the 22 and bar points with our 21. 13/7 gives us a valuable new builder for the inner board points we need either to back up an attack or just to block him in. If the dice let us do something constructive next turn up front, we can do it, and if not, we can worry then about running one of our back men, or re-anchoring either on the 21 point or on one of the outside points they can reach.

22/21* 13/7 looks like our chance to “make a move” at a good time. It doesn’t commit us too early to any game plan, and allows us reasonable chances to recover from a setback or two if we begin to press forward on our next rolls.



Neil Kazaross: 61 b/24 13/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 151
             
11 point match
              pip: 149
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-c----ECB---bC---bacbAA-b-:1:1:1:21:9:7:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 157
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----EAC---cDa-ab-db-A-A-:1:1:1:21:9:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/22 8/7eq: -0.343
Player:
Opponent:
45.36% (G:13.56% B:1.56%)
54.64% (G:12.53% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.349...-0.338) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout17/5 6/5eq: -0.430 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
46.86% (G:15.99% B:2.83%)
53.14% (G:18.36% B:1.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.436...-0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 80510591
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] 24/22 8/7
[ 2] 7/5 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/22 8/7

As we have already discussed, we need that anchor, even though it appears he’s going to blockade it fairly effectively. 24/22 is just about automatic for that reason. We’d only look at something else if the accompanying ace were awful, but it’s not–it makes the bar point, giving us the start of some forward structure. Making both points and working from there looks to be best.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 157
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----EBB---cDa-ab-db-B---:1:1:-1:55:9:7:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout111/1 9/4 6/1eq: +0.162
Player:
Opponent:
46.84% (G:11.25% B:0.96%)
53.16% (G:14.26% B:1.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.160...+0.164) - [97.9%]
Duration: 4 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 9/4 6/1(2)eq: +0.159 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
46.56% (G:11.38% B:0.81%)
53.44% (G:14.45% B:1.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.157...+0.161) - [2.1%]
Duration: 4 hours 25 minutes
3.Rollout213/8 11/1 6/1eq: +0.145 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
46.24% (G:10.99% B:0.49%)
53.76% (G:14.19% B:1.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.140...+0.150) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 32 seconds
4.Rollout213/8 11/1 9/4eq: +0.120 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
44.76% (G:11.23% B:0.65%)
55.24% (G:15.17% B:2.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.115...+0.125) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 80510591
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 80510591
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/1 9/4 6/1.

It normally can be awful to roll an early 55 that cannot move your back checkers, when your opponents have anchored on the your 3 point and taken away your normal play. This is the case here, and the USBGF Members chose well to anchor at this score with that 21. Here, I think my best bet is to leave only 1 blot and to try to improve my board with 11/1 9/4 6/1, which also keeps a bit of flexibility.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----EBB---cD---b-cbaB-b-:1:1:1:61:9:7:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-22

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----EAC---dDa--c-da-A-A-:0:0:-1:00:9:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:57.10% (G:17.70% B:1.53%)56.88% (G:18.06% B:1.90%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:42.90% (G:12.61% B:1.80%)43.12% (G:13.26% B:1.95%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.113+0.760
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.688 (-0.071)±0.013 (+0.675..+0.701)
played Double/Take:+0.760±0.014 (+0.746..+0.774)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.240)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80510591
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] Take
[ 1] Pass


Mary Hickey recommends: Take

Neil is right to double, because in some sense he has “won the opening”, and in a way that is at least somewhat gammonish. At this special score, that’s good enough. Since he “won the opening”, he’s the game favorite just because he’s on roll, and by doubling us now, he juices up his own gammons while negating ours. It’s a good trade at this special score of 4a2a.

Can we take? The game is very young, and although there’s plenty of potential for it to go bad for us, nothing’s actually happened yet. Yes, we can definitely take this one. He’s doubling this early to be sure he doesn’t lose his market, and he hasn’t done so yet.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----EAC---dDa--c-da-A-A-:1:1:-1:43:9:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/9 8/5eq: +0.424
Player:
Opponent:
54.26% (G:16.96% B:1.63%)
45.74% (G:15.56% B:2.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.418...+0.431) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 8/5eq: +0.407 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
54.55% (G:15.82% B:1.62%)
45.45% (G:15.34% B:1.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.401...+0.413) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 80510591
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 8/5.

My 3 is forced (8/5) and then I think at what is now gammon go, I should bring the heat and duplicate 6’s with 13/9. If hit with a 6, my opponents usually have to forgo making their bar and maybe I can return hit. Anytime my opponents can’t hit and don’t anchor, they run substantial risk of me attacking and sometimes that attack leads to a closeout.

24/20 looks like the best DMP play, but 13/9 is going to get me clearly more gammons.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 157
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----EAC---cDa-ab-db-A-A-:1:1:1:21:9:7:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:62:9:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout124/22 13/7eq: -0.768
Player:
Opponent:
42.73% (G:13.47% B:2.13%)
57.27% (G:17.85% B:1.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.774...-0.762) - [80.9%]
Duration: 13 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 6/4eq: -0.771 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
42.93% (G:14.32% B:2.35%)
57.07% (G:18.13% B:3.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.778...-0.765) - [19.1%]
Duration: 14 hours 25 minutes
3.Rollout213/5eq: -0.797 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
42.39% (G:14.35% B:2.16%)
57.61% (G:18.13% B:2.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.811...-0.782) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
4.Rollout224/18 13/11eq: -0.798 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
43.60% (G:13.27% B:2.28%)
56.40% (G:19.37% B:2.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.813...-0.784) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
5.Rollout213/11 13/7eq: -0.800 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
42.81% (G:14.15% B:2.14%)
57.19% (G:18.62% B:3.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.816...-0.785) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
6.Rollout224/16eq: -0.819 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
43.30% (G:12.26% B:2.12%)
56.70% (G:19.51% B:1.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.833...-0.804) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 80510591
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 80510591
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 24/22 13/7
[11] 24/18 13/11
[ 5] 13/5
[ 2] 13/11 13/7
[ 2] 24/16


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/22 13/7

Wow, we’re still here? The best way to start thinking about this move is to get into the 2A4A mindset of what I guess Neil would be consistent and call “Cubeful Gammon Save” before we consider our options.

Just running 24/16 looks lame–too early to think only about racing when the running number is this bad. It doesn’t even duplicate anything, and gives him way too many hit and cover rolls, which could be Very Bad. Let’s see if we can do better.

13/7 6/4 is an all-out building play that duplicates both his 6s and his 3s, and has the added advantage that it Looks Really Cool! But sometimes that isn’t enough to beat out disadvantageous counterfactors, which in this case include leaving two blots on our own side of the board with our back men still immobile on the ace point. Hmmm, that gives it kind of a cold, clammy gammonish feel, not the right concept at this score despite its excellent building potential.

What about options that split the back checkers to a point we’d want if we could win the fight for it? Those would include 24/18 13/11 and 24/22 13/7.

24/18 13/11 starts a fight for the bar anchor while leaving a triple shot outside and a lot of hit and cover rolls despite the duplication of 6s and 1s, making it quite dangerous, but the other half of the roll, 13/11, puts a checker in a great spot for when the dust settles. 24/22 13/7 starts a less desirable anchor (who really likes playing from the 22 point?) but it’s a much less gammonish place to sit than on the 24 point, and our chance of actually making that anchor (or a better one) is pretty good because the forward split checker we put there now is less likely to be attacked. But the cost of trying for that anchor is a blot on our bar point which if hit will give us a third man back, possibly with his having made his 5 point.

Plays like this are hard calls at special scores if you haven’t memorized them, as some players do. I haven’t memorized this one, and over the board, I know I’d play 24/22 13/7 the same as I would for money, for the same reason: it has to be a close call, but my opponent is less likely to be familiar with where it goes from here because it’s a play made less often than others. Suppose it is a third-decimal-place ding, but leads to more errors by the opponent? Well worth a small PR hit.

PR jocks don’t always lose sight of the goal of winning, but they do run that risk. The goal is first, to win the match, and toward that end, to maximize the absolute difference in PR between you and your opponent, not the ratio. For example, if you play a 6 and they play a 10, you are better off than if you play a 1 and they play a 3. Not that you’d intentionally risk playing a 6 in the Open at an ABT tournament, where chances are your opponent is pretty good, but you certainly might when playing someone 400 or 500 elo below your rating on Gridgammon, FIBS, Safe Harbor or any other online site with a robust elo rating system.

But we digress. I’m voting for 24/22 13/7 not because I think Neil isn’t familiar with it (or just about anything else we can throw at him) but because I like the chance of getting that 22 anchor and being in far less gammon danger than if we have either both back men on the ace point, or a man or men bouncing in the air with no anchor at all. We can figure out what to do with it once we have it.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----EAC---dDa--c-da-A-A-:0:0:-1:00:9:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2017-06-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 11
             
11 point match
              pip: 26
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-CA-B----------------ce-:2:-1:1:52:5:7:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout16/1 4/2eq: -0.625
Player:
Opponent:
18.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
81.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.625...-0.625) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.1 second
2.playedRollout16/4 6/1eq: -0.647 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
17.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
82.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.647...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.0 second
3.Rollout16/1 3/1eq: -0.647 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
17.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
82.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.647...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 58055611
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 6/4 6/1
[11] 6/1 4/2
[ 1] 6/1 3/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 6/1 4/2

Our 5 is forced to play 6/1, and we then have three choices (6/4, 4/2, and 3/1) for the 2. No play can bear any checkers off, and we seriously needed to get down to six, so this dumb number means we are now relying on a double either now or later. One way to compare these three choices is to look at how all six possible doubles play on our next turn.

In many cases they wash, but 4/2 stands out by making 33 play better, and 3/1 stands out by making 11 play better. Although nothing yet favors 6/4, we’d probably be too hasty dropping it out at this stage, so let’s look at how some other rolls work.

As might be expected, we see a difference favoring 4/2 on most of the rolls that include a 2, because the other plays both leave a gap there. 3/1 might give us better chances if we rolled several aces in a row, but this bearoff is way too far advanced to be worrying about that. If we roll mostly aces, we’re going to be crispy critters anyway.

4/2 wins out because it gives us better chances with our 2s next turn and plays a little better on 33. It doesn’t leave us in great shape, but neither of the other plays racks up enough advantages to fight it.



Neil Kazaross: 32 2/0(2)
USBGF Members: 61 4/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 41 2/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 31 3/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 61 1/0(2)
USBGF Members: 33 4/0 3/0(2)

USBGF Members win 4 points and lead 2-away/4-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:21:9:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout113/11 6/5eq: +0.406
Player:
Opponent:
50.92% (G:14.67% B:1.68%)
49.08% (G:17.70% B:3.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.391...+0.421) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 58 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: +0.343 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
50.18% (G:13.94% B:0.87%)
49.82% (G:15.11% B:1.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.329...+0.356) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49441929
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 6/5.

Trailing at what I call “cubeful gammon go,” it is automatic for me to slot an opening 21 to jack up my gammon chances.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:62:9:7:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 31
             
11 point match
              pip: 44
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-DBBBa---------------cg-:2:-1:1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout14/2 1/Offeq: +0.083
Player:
Opponent:
54.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.082...+0.083) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.8 second
2.Rollout16/4 1/Offeq: +0.077 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
53.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.077...+0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.7 second
3.Rollout13/Offeq: +0.076 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
53.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.076...+0.076) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.0 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 58055611
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 4/2 1/0
[ 8] 3/0
[ 1] 6/4 1/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 4/2 1/0

4/2 1/off looks best, evening out our low-points distribution and ensuring we don’t miss on our next turn. This is likely to be another play that doesn’t matter a lot, since the only reasonable alternative, 3/off, also gets a man off and leaves a decent-looking distribution. But I do think filling the 2 gap, even by risking a gap on the 4 point later, is the more precise way to play this.

Another way to get to this play: Paul Magriel has said that in a bearoff, you should always use an ace to bear off directly from the ace point, and there are few if any exceptions. Doing so here first, then considering our choice of 2s, seems to me to lead to 4/2 being the best choice.



Neil Kazaross: 64 18/8
USBGF Members: 52 5/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 41 8/4 1/0
USBGF Members: 53 5/0 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 41 4/0 1/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 11
             
11 point match
              pip: 26
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-CA-B----------------ce-:2:-1:1:52:5:7:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 49
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-BBCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:32:5:7:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout15/Offeq: +0.649
Player:
Opponent:
82.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.649...+0.650) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20.9 seconds
2.playedRollout16/3 5/3eq: +0.643 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
82.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.642...+0.643) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.8 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 58055611
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 6/3 5/3
[ 9] 5/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 6/3 5/3

“Are we there yet?” Do we have enough checkers off that we can put safety ahead of speed? Given our slow, gapped board compared to his fast one, the answer tends toward “No”. But given that he doesn’t have a recube to throw at us, pushes back toward “Yes”. How do we decide?

If the two plays that take a man off (5/off and 3/off 3/1) weren’t both so hideous, I might be saying we still need to chuck checkers into the tray as fast as we can, so let’s just do it. But those both plays really are just awful, 5/off because of all the shots it leaves next time, and 3/off 3/1 because it gives us a second gap and also makes it much easier for Neil to get on and away. So even though chucking checkers is the right concept, I’m going with 6/3 5/3 because it leaves so much better prospects for shot avoidance. Sometimes the fear of stepping on a banana peel at the end of a game like this one can make people play too cautiously, but also sometimes the cost of doing what we’d rather do is just too high, and this looks to be one of those times.



Neil Kazaross: 52 b/18


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 31
             
11 point match
              pip: 44
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-DBBBa---------------cg-:2:-1:1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 54
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout14/Off 1/Offeq: +0.643
Player:
Opponent:
82.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.642...+0.643) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18.3 seconds
2.Rollout15/Offeq: +0.513 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:
75.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.512...+0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.2 seconds
3.Rollout16/5 4/Offeq: +0.493 (-0.150)
Player:
Opponent:
74.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.492...+0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16.7 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 33971493
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 4/0 1/0
[ 1] 6/5 4/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 4/0 1/0

Two off looks right here. This is one of the few small rolls that plays really well! Yes, there are a couple of shot-leavers and awkward plays next turn after we do this, but there are also a couple of baddies after the only reasonable alternative, 4/off 6/5. Whether we get hit or not, the race could turn into a photo finish where that one extra checker we take off now could be the decider, so let’s not worry over details. We need to take two off, and be happy that doing so leaves a reasonably safe position for next turn.



Neil Kazaross: 61 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 49
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-BBCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:32:5:7:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBCB--A--A----------cg-:2:-1:1:53:5:7:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout112/4eq: +0.404
Player:
Opponent:
70.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.403...+0.405) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41.3 seconds
2.Rollout112/7 9/6eq: +0.372 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
68.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.372...+0.373) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47.6 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 54526924
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 12/4
[ 8] 12/7 9/6


Mary Hickey recommends: 12/4

12/4 looks right this time. Slotting the 8 point has been a close call on the plays up till now, including our last move where it was apparently right by a few millipoints. (One voter got it right, but it wasn’t me!) But slotting the bar today with 12/7 9/6 doesn’t look good at all. It gives him a chance to run off with the game by hitting us with a 25 just as we were about to start our bearoff, and lets his 26 escape for good. In contrast, staying back on the 9 point gives us one last shot at him on all his hopping rolls. 12/4 also puts a spare at a good spot for bearing off with minimal additional gapping. An added fine point in its favor is that it gives us a productive use for a missing 2 once he’s gone and we are back to bearing off.

12/7 9/6 does give us something in compensation for its risks, including the added closers and restarting our bearoff a little faster on our smallest rolls. It just doesn’t look like enough bang for the buck–12/4 looks to be the better package deal.



Neil Kazaross: 51 no play
USBGF Members: 21 9/6
Neil Kazaross: 51 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 54
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBBC-----AA---------cg-:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout112/8 6/5eq: +0.299
Player:
Opponent:
64.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.298...+0.300) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds
2.playedRollout113/9 6/5eq: +0.293 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
64.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.292...+0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
3.Rollout113/8eq: +0.292 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
64.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.291...+0.292) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds
4.Rollout113/9 12/11eq: +0.287 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
64.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.287...+0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds
5.Rollout112/7eq: +0.261 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
63.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
36.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.261...+0.262) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds
6.Rollout112/11 6/2eq: +0.171 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:
58.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.171...+0.172) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 13/9 6/5
[ 9] 13/9 12/11
[ 2] 13/8
[ 1] 12/7
[ 1] 12/8 6/5
[ 1] 12/11 6/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/9 6/5

Different day, but a similar decision. I still don’t see any compelling reason to slot the 8 point, since again it gives him two shots but gives us only two rolls (or three, if we play 6/5 with the ace) to close the board. I still favor keeping our back men working together to close in, and so the choice looks to be between 13/9 12/11 and 13/9 6/5. The first play has the advantage of getting a little closer to bearing off, but the second is better if he gets in and hops because we get a few more shots, and it plays a bit better overall, though not great, with the big doubles. I wouldn’t want to waste a lot of pips for those gains, but it’s often true that the cost of a single “wasted” pip is worth some added advantage that it buys. I think this is one of those times, so I like 13/9 6/5.



Neil Kazaross: 53 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBCB--A--A----------cg-:2:-1:1:53:5:7:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 76
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBBC-----A------A---cg-:2:-1:1:42:5:7:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout119/13eq: +0.244
Player:
Opponent:
62.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.243...+0.244) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout119/17 12/8eq: +0.237 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
61.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.237...+0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
3.Rollout119/15 12/10eq: +0.233 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
61.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.233...+0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout112/8 6/4eq: +0.216 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
60.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.215...+0.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 19/13
[11] 19/17 12/8
[ 2] 12/8 6/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 19/13

Today’s play is difficult because the strategic and tactical elements argue against one another. Strategically, in a containment ending we want our checkers all working together in committed fashion to close in on the lone enemy checker, and the best play for that strategy is 19/13. But tactically, if we get away with 19/17 12/8, we have a couple of ways to close, many ways to get a diversified builder onto our block, and more ways to hit him if he enters but can’t hop out.

Regarding 19/17 12/8, I don’t find the argument that 64 will then close the board very convincing. It’s only two numbers, and to get it we give him two numbers, the hitting 62–and he gets to shoot first! But the argument that we will have more ways to hit loose inside if he enters and doesn’t hop is a good one because covers a lot more sequences.

In favor of 19/13, we have much better coverage on his worst rolls for us, the ones that enter and hop. We also don’t leave him any shots. There’s also a small vig favoring it in that 66 turn plays better, leaving no shot inside.

We aren’t overly scared of leaving just two shots if there’s enough benefit if it works, but here I don’t quite see it. I’m going with the strategic play of 19/13, trying to close the net while he’s not set to run and escape from it.



Neil Kazaross: 41 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBBC-----AA---------cg-:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 89
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C-BBBC-a----------A---cgA:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout1Bar/20eq: -0.314
Player:
Opponent:
34.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
65.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.315...-0.312) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.3 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 6/5eq: -0.332 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
33.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.334...-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32.6 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/21 19/18eq: -0.370 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
31.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
68.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.372...-0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.0 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] b/20
[12] b/21 6/5
[ 4] b/21 19/18


Mary Hickey recommends: b/20

The 4 is forced, bar/21, so all we have to do is figure out what to do with the ace. We have no reason to step outside his board with the ace, since then his rolls that hit it leave us only indirects to hit back. That means 19/18 is out, and the choice is between 21/20 and 6/5.

Both our back men are far enough back that we don’t have to play 6/5 just to keep sufficient distance to prevent his jumping over us. The forward checker is 11 away from his blot, which is already an excellent distance, often the best. Being back 13 instead of 12 with the other man is nothing special, even though it gives us a few extra shots on some of his small-roll-followed-by-small-roll parlays.

More important is that since he’s forced to come to us, we will get more a double direct shot on 42 by having them only one pip apart, the way they’ll be after 21/20. There is no compensating roll that gives us that advantage after 6/5. We also pick up a few extra shots on combos such as 6 plus 7, 7 plus 8 etc. over 6 plus 8 or 7 plus 9. This concentration of our shot-hitting power into one roll is especially good when the cube is available and the shot is more decisive than it will be here when he’s got four men off, but it’s often the right concept regardless of where the cube is. In addition, there is also a tactical argument favoring 21/20, which is that after his potentially disastrous (for us, anyway) roll of 33, he’ll have to hit us, and we’ll then have 15 ways to hit him instead of just the 11 we’d have after 6/5.

Yes, 21/20 looks to be our best ace. After that, it’s all up to the dice.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 84
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C-BBBC-a----------AA--cg-:2:-1:-1:31:5:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout117/13eq: +0.380
Player:
Opponent:
68.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.378...+0.381) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.6 seconds
2.Rollout117/14 2/1eq: +0.318 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
65.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.317...+0.320) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42.2 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 17/13.

I must play 17/13, leaving one more immediate shot to improve my chances of getting to safety next roll. Additionally, if I play 2/1, I have no more spares remaining on my 2 point, and could end up exposing a blot there if I get hit and enter and roll a blocked 1. But even with many spares on the 2 point, I think 17/13 is best.



USBGF Members: 22 20/12*
Neil Kazaross: 66 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 76
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBBC-----A------A---cg-:2:-1:1:42:5:7:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 69
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCABBBC---------------Acg-:2:-1:1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout122/19eq: +0.220
Player:
Opponent:
60.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.219...+0.221) - [99.6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds
2.xgRollout122/20 6/5eq: +0.218 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
60.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.218...+0.219) - [0.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout222/21 6/4eq: +0.174 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
58.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.172...+0.176) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.4 seconds
4.Rollout26/3eq: +0.167 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
58.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.166...+0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49.0 seconds
5.Rollout222/20 3/2eq: +0.156 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
57.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.154...+0.158) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.1 seconds
6.Rollout26/4 3/2eq: +0.105 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
55.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.103...+0.107) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.1 seconds
7.Rollout222/21 4/2eq: +0.089 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
54.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.087...+0.090) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.3 seconds
8.Rollout26/5 4/2eq: +0.083 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:
54.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.082...+0.085) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.6 seconds
9.Rollout222/20 2/1eq: +0.075 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:
53.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.073...+0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.2 seconds
10.Rollout25/2eq: +0.062 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:
53.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.060...+0.063) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20.6 seconds
11.Rollout26/4 2/1eq: +0.044 (-0.176)
Player:
Opponent:
52.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
47.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.042...+0.046) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20.9 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 22/19
[ 2] 22/20 6/5
[ 1] 22/20 2/1
[ 1] 6/4 2/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/19

We definitely want to keep the 2 point slotted and keep trying to cover the blot. We also want to get back to our home and restart our bearoff regardless of whether we can cover or not, so I don’t see any reason not to simply play 22/19 with this lame excuse for a roll. If he stays out, maybe we can roll that 4 we want, or at least something bigger!



Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23*/17


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 89
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C-BBBC-a----------A---cgA:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 74
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBCBC----------------cgA:2:-1:1:32:5:7:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 4/2*eq: +0.216
Player:
Opponent:
60.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.214...+0.218) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46.6 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20eq: -0.277 (-0.493)
Player:
Opponent:
36.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
63.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.278...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.3 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] b/22 4/2*


Mary Hickey recommends: b/22 4/2*

Letting him run away scot-free now would be outright criminal! We are lucky to have a roll that enters and hits back, and should do so with no hesitation whatever. I trust that today’s vote to hit, bar/22 4/2*, will be unanimous.



Neil Kazaross: 33 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 69
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCABBBC---------------Acg-:2:-1:1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBDCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:52:5:7:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout15/Off 4/2*eq: +0.299
Player:
Opponent:
64.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.298...+0.301) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.3 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 4/2*eq: +0.192 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
59.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.41% (G:0.79% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.190...+0.193) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.8 seconds
3.Rollout16/4 5/Offeq: -0.160 (-0.460)
Player:
Opponent:
41.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.162...-0.159) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5.4 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 5/0 4/2*
[ 4] 6/4 5/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/0 4/2*

We have to hit and try for that closeout, because if he gets away, his four men already off plus a speed-board when he gets there, make his life just too easy! This isn’t some kind of pip counting position where we talk about his “wastage”. It is a rolls position, where we are the ones who are likely to waste half-rolls whenever we hit that gap on our 2 point, along with any other gaps that might open up later in the bearoff. We need to make our strong board, not his fast one, the key to the highway by means of a hit, 5/off 4/2*. If he misses us, even if we can’t cover we will have cost him what might be a critical turn in a photo finish.



Neil Kazaross: 32 b/23*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 74
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBCBC----------------cgA:2:-1:1:32:5:7:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBDCC----------------cg-:1:1:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo redoubleRedouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:65.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)65.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:34.27% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)34.10% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.314+0.604
Cubeful Equities
xg No redouble:+0.665±0.002 (+0.663..+0.667)
played Redouble/Take:+0.604 (-0.061)±0.003 (+0.601..+0.607)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.335)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 35.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] Redouble
[11] No Redouble


Mary Hickey recommends: No Redouble

“Are we there yet?” We would have been if he’d stayed out. But since he’s in, even though we’re still favored to win and have some market loss on the point-on-head rolls, along with big doubles followed by garbage, I’d rather hold off for a turn. I am especially looking at sequences where we have to hit loose, and he fans. We will then have a very strong double, usually favored to cover though certainly not a lock to do so. In those cases, he might get another shot, but then he still has to hit it. If he doesn’t, we might cover on the second try, or we might just win the game in a bearoff. Another time we’ll have a better double is if we roll something that doesn’t allow us to hit, but does let us get two checkers off, and he’s still there next turn.


Neil Kazaross takes.

I have an easy take as I need only a fraction over 25% to take at this score. I won’t usually be closed out and if I am I will usually have about 20% winning chances remaining. Even after a joker like 66 I retain chances as I have a speed board and 4 checkers off.

If I am hit loose, I may roll a 2 and hit back, or my opponents might not be able to cover conveniently (i.e. blotlessly). If I am not hit and can hop out, I will often be the favorite.

The reason this position hasn’t been a proper cube along much of the journey is that I have 4 checkers off and my opponents have a spare on their ace point. This results in their upside not being much over 80%.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBDCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:52:5:7:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10