USBGF OLM 2017-05-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCB-------A------Accd-:1:1:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[16] No Redouble
[15] Redouble


Mary Hickey recommends: No Redouble

It’s tempting to think redouble here, because we’re behind in the match and this game could put us ahead. But with him having four guys off already and a speed-board if he can get back to it, his take looks pretty trivial. That doesn’t mean we can’t also have a redouble, but without much of a market-loss threat on our side, I’m not seeing it here. We’re very unlikely to close him out on this turn, and unless we roll a big double, our last two men aren’t getting home very fast, either. Let’s sit on the cube for a roll, and see if we can develop a bigger threat one way or another.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCB-------A------Accd-:1:1:1:43:5:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sat 5/27 1145a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-05-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 94
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC--DBD-------------AAccd-:1:1:1:61:5:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedXG Roller++20/14 6/5eq: +0.012
Player:
Opponent:
42.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.75% (G:4.91% B:0.05%)
2.XG Roller++21/15 6/5eq: -0.018 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
40.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.02% (G:4.70% B:0.04%)
3.XG Roller++20/13eq: -0.042 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
40.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.84% (G:4.89% B:0.05%)
4.XG Roller++20/14 4/3eq: -0.061 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
43.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.33% (G:13.53% B:0.15%)
5.XG Roller++21/14eq: -0.067 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
39.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.78% (G:4.76% B:0.04%)
6.XG Roller++21/15 20/19eq: -0.071 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
39.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.98% (G:4.83% B:0.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 20/14 6/5
[ 2] 21/15 6/5
[ 1] 21/15 4/3
[ 1] 20/13
[ 1] 21/15 20/19


Mary Hickey recommends: 20/14 6/5

20/14 6/5 looks natural, and holds up when we look at it more closely. The improvement of our builder distribution could be important whether he enters or not, and 20/14 gives us a direct return shot if he rolls a 36, 26 or a 35 enter-and-jump number. 21/15 isn’t as good because it only gives us a direct return on 36. 21/14 “worries too much”, as the wasted pip played 6/5 is no big deal here for saving the gammon. It is a big deal another way, because it improves our chances of saving the gammon the best way possible–by winning the game!



Neil Kazaross: 21 b/22
USBGF Members: 31 6/3* 4/3
Neil Kazaross: 54 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCB-------A------Accd-:1:1:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 95
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-CBCBB---a-a--babbbbA--:1:1:1:42:5:7:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout17/5 7/3eq: -0.655
Player:
Opponent:
20.18% (G:6.06% B:0.69%)
79.82% (G:16.05% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.660...-0.650) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 17 seconds
2.playedRollout18/6 8/4eq: -0.731 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
17.10% (G:4.63% B:0.54%)
82.90% (G:15.07% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.735...-0.726) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 00 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 8/6 8/4
[11] 7/5 7/3


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/5 7/3

We only have two serious candidates here: clearing the 8 or clearing the bar. If we set up the resulting positions, we see that clearing the 8 is safe for the roll, but sure looks likely to generate a shot later. Too many stripped points, and still that gap. Clearing the bar leaves him aces to hit now, but looks to roll in better on the following turn and thereafter if he misses. It also has the advantage of killing our 6s, potentially allowing us a little more game-time to let him roll a prime-cracking number. That assumes he gets the prime, of course; he’s a big favorite to make his bar point, but it’s not certain until it’s done.

Getting a second checker closed out increases our gammon risk, but if we slot and he hits us, a closeout isn’t a given. This might instead provide us the opportunity to anchor before he gets enough material to complete a blitz. If he makes the prime, we want that opportunity, because otherwise he may succeed in recirculating checkers by means of loose hits inside until he picks up a second man, and we’d then have to get a lot luckier to anchor than we have to get right now.

So much for strategy; what about tactical considerations? 11, 51 and 31 are already prime-making numbers for him, so we aren’t “giving” him those numbers. He already has them! If he rolls 61 or 41, we make his roll better, but again, we give ourselves that chance to anchor and make a last stand versus his prime. If he gets a 21, we did “give him the roll”, but we still have our chance to anchor. Overall, since the incremental danger from our slotting right now is mitigated by the factors just noted, the danger of leaving a worse shot later is high, and that our position plays better if we’re missed, clearing the bar point looks right for the long term and is the way to go today.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 89
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-DBDB----a-a--babbbbA--:1:1:-1:55:5:7:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout113/3 11/6 7/2*eq: -0.097
Player:
Opponent:
56.25% (G:8.94% B:0.56%)
43.75% (G:9.99% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.102...-0.092) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout111/6 8/3(2) 7/2*eq: -0.295 (-0.198)
Player:
Opponent:
50.40% (G:7.47% B:0.45%)
49.60% (G:15.15% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.300...-0.290) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 07 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 11/1 7/2*eq: -0.301 (-0.204)
Player:
Opponent:
51.14% (G:7.54% B:0.48%)
48.86% (G:14.53% B:1.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.306...-0.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32123691
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/3 11/6 7/2*.

Well the dice sometimes bring bad tidings as well as good. Here rather than rolling one of 27 prime making numbers I get this BAD 55. I can just handle it.



USBGF Members: 62 b/23* 7/1
Neil Kazaross: 43 b/18*
USBGF Members: 53 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 101
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Cb-DBDa---------b-cbbcA-A:1:1:-1:62:5:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout118/16 8/2*eq: +0.856
Player:
Opponent:
81.71% (G:30.55% B:1.76%)
18.29% (G:7.17% B:1.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.851...+0.862) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout18/2* 6/4eq: +0.835 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
81.17% (G:29.91% B:1.77%)
18.83% (G:7.35% B:1.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.829...+0.840) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 03 seconds
3.xgRollout118/10eq: +0.823 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
80.49% (G:27.11% B:1.61%)
19.51% (G:4.16% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.818...+0.828) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout18/6 8/2*eq: +0.811 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
80.09% (G:29.80% B:1.63%)
19.91% (G:6.82% B:1.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.805...+0.816) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 15 seconds
5.Rollout118/12 6/4eq: +0.795 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
80.17% (G:25.87% B:1.46%)
19.83% (G:4.35% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.790...+0.801) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 45 seconds
6.Rollout123/15eq: +0.742 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
79.43% (G:25.26% B:1.50%)
20.57% (G:6.84% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.737...+0.748) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/16 8/2*.

I can’t take my eye off the ball here and must continue to make strong plays. 8/2* puts a 2nd checker on the bar and might even be the best DMP play. Certainly it will win the most match ending gammons. Then the best 2 is 18/16. I am not in danger of yet cracking with a 44 or 33 so I don’t need to hop a checker into the outfield and allow some counter-play. Best is just to work to close my opponents out to try to snuff out any resistance they can offer this game.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Cb-DBD--a-------a-cbbca-B:1:1:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.Rollout18/7 6/2eq: +1.234
Player:
Opponent:
90.92% (G:36.15% B:1.72%)
9.08% (G:1.85% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.232...+1.236) - [59.7%]
Duration: 41 minutes 49 seconds
2.playedRollout18/4 3/2eq: +1.234 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
90.51% (G:37.00% B:1.72%)
9.49% (G:1.91% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.232...+1.236) - [40.3%]
Duration: 40 minutes 01 second
3.Rollout223/22 6/2eq: +1.224 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
90.60% (G:36.45% B:1.84%)
9.40% (G:2.19% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.220...+1.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 17 seconds
4.Rollout216/12 3/2eq: +1.212 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
90.12% (G:36.02% B:1.69%)
9.88% (G:1.88% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.208...+1.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 3/2.

I think the most natural play is 8/4 3/2 rather than 8/7 6/2 as I want spares on high points. But shouldn’t I be afraid of my 44 and play 23/22 6/2? However, that risks 11 from my opponents although I still may end up OK if they crash afterwards. Which ghost to be afraid of? Well seeing that I can handle one 44 without crashing I think I am supposed to add a builder for the close out. If I can’t move a back checker next turn and then roll 44 if won’t be the end of the world if all it costs me is to switch my 5 point for my 1 point.



USBGF Members: 65 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Cb-DBD--a---------cbcbb-B:1:1:-1:64:5:7:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout123/13eq: +1.322
Player:
Opponent:
92.75% (G:38.74% B:1.73%)
7.25% (G:1.30% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.320...+1.323) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout123/17 16/12eq: +1.316 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
92.57% (G:38.64% B:1.73%)
7.43% (G:1.30% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.315...+1.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 40 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/13.

This probably doesn’t make much of a difference as long as I run out with a back checker. 23/13 allows me to hit loose with 66 and 44 if my opponents enter and by leaving the checker on the 16 point, 55 will close my board. If I instead play 16/12, I do bring that checker a bit closer to home where it soon can become a direct builder, but this doesn’t add anything next turn as I can hit loose with 65 anyhow should my opponents enter a checker.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 102
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Ca-DBD--a--a------cbcbb-B:1:1:-1:31:5:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout116/13 6/5eq: +1.335
Player:
Opponent:
93.27% (G:38.41% B:1.57%)
6.73% (G:0.94% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.333...+1.336) - [92.6%]
Duration: 28 minutes 30 seconds
2.playedRollout113/9eq: +1.333 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
92.96% (G:39.04% B:1.65%)
7.04% (G:1.05% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.332...+1.335) - [7.3%]
Duration: 26 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout123/22 16/13eq: +1.331 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
93.00% (G:38.72% B:1.57%)
7.00% (G:1.02% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.330...+1.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 33 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +1.331 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
93.03% (G:38.71% B:1.72%)
6.97% (G:1.05% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.329...+1.332) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 52 seconds
5.Rollout216/15 13/10eq: +1.329 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
92.91% (G:38.83% B:1.77%)
7.09% (G:1.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.325...+1.332) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds
6.Rollout223/22 13/10eq: +1.326 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
92.77% (G:38.95% B:1.77%)
7.23% (G:1.23% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.323...+1.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds
7.Rollout216/12eq: +1.324 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
92.84% (G:38.55% B:1.68%)
7.16% (G:1.16% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.320...+1.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9.

I think I have enough time to escape that 3 prime that I don’t need to yet play 23/22 and risk a 11 joker. I’ll go with 13/9, putting that checker in a good spot if I need to hit loose.



USBGF Members: 31 b/24


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 98
             
11 point match
              pip: 102
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Ca-DBD--a------a--cbcbbAA:1:1:-1:63:5:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout123/17 4/1*eq: +1.282
Player:
Opponent:
91.35% (G:39.28% B:1.56%)
8.65% (G:2.24% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.279...+1.286) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 4/1*eq: +1.252 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
90.71% (G:38.30% B:1.62%)
9.29% (G:2.14% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.248...+1.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/17 4/1*.

I am happy to hit 4/1* going after the closeout. Then I play 23/17 hopping out so I don’t risk ending up with two checkers back if the USBGF Members roll a saving ace from the bar.



USBGF Members: 33 no play
Neil Kazaross: 32 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 84
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD-aa------a--bbbbbbB:1:1:-1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout19/6eq: +1.527
Player:
Opponent:
96.79% (G:45.44% B:1.66%)
3.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.526...+1.528) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout117/15 9/8eq: +1.524 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
96.75% (G:45.28% B:1.66%)
3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.523...+1.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 55 seconds
3.Rollout117/14eq: +1.524 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
96.79% (G:45.18% B:1.66%)
3.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.523...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout116/14 9/8eq: +1.523 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.80% (G:45.11% B:1.64%)
3.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.522...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 53 seconds
5.xgRollout116/13eq: +1.523 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:45.16% B:1.64%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.522...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
6.Rollout116/15 9/7eq: +1.521 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
96.75% (G:45.07% B:1.63%)
3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.520...+1.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 08 seconds
7.Rollout117/15 16/15eq: +1.521 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
96.75% (G:45.02% B:1.64%)
3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.520...+1.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds
8.Rollout117/16 9/7eq: +1.519 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
96.69% (G:45.04% B:1.65%)
3.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.518...+1.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/6.

My gammon value is higher than normal here since I win the match exactly with a 4 point gammon. It is about 2/3 rather than the normal 1/2. Thus I will take some small risks to bear off quickly for a gammon. My ideal quick bearoff position after a closeout is usually to put one spare checker on my 6 and 5 points and then the dice decide what happens with my third spare. Therefore, 9/6 here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 81
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD-aa---------cbbbbbB:1:1:-1:51:5:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout117/12 6/5eq: +1.528
Player:
Opponent:
96.81% (G:45.48% B:1.75%)
3.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.526...+1.530) - [72.3%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
2.playedRollout116/10eq: +1.527 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:45.44% B:1.74%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.525...+1.528) - [16.3%]
Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds
3.Rollout117/11eq: +1.526 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:45.43% B:1.72%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.524...+1.528) - [11.3%]
Duration: 57.3 seconds
4.Rollout117/12 16/15eq: +1.524 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.69% (G:45.45% B:1.74%)
3.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.522...+1.526) - [0.2%]
Duration: 53.3 seconds
5.Rollout116/11 6/5eq: +1.516 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
96.65% (G:44.88% B:1.69%)
3.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.514...+1.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52.4 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/10.

16/10 looks smooth as my big doubles play fine. If I play 17/11 then my 55 is awkward.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 75
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD-a------a---cbbbbbB:1:1:-1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout117/14eq: +1.528
Player:
Opponent:
96.83% (G:45.38% B:1.58%)
3.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.526...+1.530) - [84.3%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
2.xgRollout117/15 10/9eq: +1.526 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.75% (G:45.42% B:1.66%)
3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.525...+1.528) - [15.5%]
Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds
3.Rollout117/16 10/8eq: +1.524 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:45.21% B:1.63%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.522...+1.526) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
4.Rollout117/15 6/5eq: +1.522 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
96.77% (G:45.16% B:1.50%)
3.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.521...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
5.Rollout110/8 6/5eq: +1.517 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
96.73% (G:44.80% B:1.54%)
3.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.515...+1.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59.2 seconds
6.Rollout110/9 6/4eq: +1.517 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:44.66% B:1.56%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.515...+1.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47.3 seconds
7.Rollout110/7eq: +1.516 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
96.53% (G:45.04% B:1.62%)
3.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.514...+1.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.6 seconds
8.Rollout117/16 6/4eq: +1.510 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
96.60% (G:44.50% B:1.56%)
3.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.508...+1.512) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50.3 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 17/14.

17/14 seems to be the most flexible, and of course, this play isn’t a big deal.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 72
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD----a---a---cbbbbbB:1:1:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout114/10 6/5eq: +1.522
Player:
Opponent:
96.70% (G:45.22% B:1.74%)
3.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.520...+1.524) - [82.8%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
2.Rollout114/9eq: +1.520 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
96.55% (G:45.36% B:1.76%)
3.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.518...+1.522) - [7.6%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
3.playedRollout110/5eq: +1.520 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
96.55% (G:45.37% B:1.69%)
3.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.519...+1.522) - [6.9%]
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds
4.Rollout114/13 10/6eq: +1.520 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
96.64% (G:45.18% B:1.73%)
3.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.518...+1.522) - [2.7%]
Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5.

I will risk a very small chance of disaster and push towards a gammon win with 10/5. If my opponents’ board and containment potential were better I wouldn’t risk a blotting 66.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 67
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD----a-------ccbbbbB:1:1:-1:53:5:7:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout114/6eq: +1.512
Player:
Opponent:
96.04% (G:45.79% B:1.64%)
3.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.510...+1.514) - [99.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds
2.Rollout114/9 6/3eq: +1.508 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.73% (G:44.19% B:1.40%)
3.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.506...+1.510) - [0.8%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
3.Rollout114/9 5/2eq: +1.500 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
96.26% (G:44.52% B:1.42%)
3.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.498...+1.502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/6.

14/6 isn’t the DMP play as I can get into trouble if I roll large numbers for a couple of turns, but it is the best play for the gammon and likely correct.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 59
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD------------dcbbbbB:1:1:-1:54:5:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout16/2 5/Offeq: +1.437
Player:
Opponent:
93.85% (G:44.35% B:1.77%)
6.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.434...+1.439) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 6/1eq: +1.409 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
95.40% (G:39.38% B:1.24%)
4.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.407...+1.411) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/2 5/0.

This ugly roll throws a wrench into my plans! If I play 6/2 6/1, I take none off and don’t leave a really safe position. It seems best to risk taking a checker off with 5/0 and then play 6/2 and hope to roll smaller next turn. I think the trade off of added gammon wins vs. added losses justifies this risk. If I do get hit as a result, I will usually still have a 5 point board and can hope to come around and survive.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 50
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD------------cbbbcbB:1:1:-1:55:5:7:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout16/1(2) 5/Off(2)eq: +1.119
Player:
Opponent:
85.37% (G:37.05% B:1.10%)
14.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.117...+1.121) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout16/1(3) 5/Offeq: +0.983 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
83.79% (G:29.85% B:0.62%)
16.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.981...+0.986) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1(2) 5/0(2).

Here comes trouble! I simply take 2 checkers off as the number of shots is 11 either way.



USBGF Members: 22 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD------------a-bbcdB:1:1:-1:63:5:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout16/3 4/Offeq: +1.287
Player:
Opponent:
88.67% (G:43.38% B:1.05%)
11.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.284...+1.289) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 3/Offeq: +1.224 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
85.11% (G:45.56% B:2.08%)
14.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.222...+1.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3 4/0.

I am regretting not playing more safely with my bearin! Now I think I have to potentially waste a roll and end up with an odd number of checkers remaining, since if I take 2 checkers off I will have many rolls to leave a shot next turn and there’s a chance if I am hit to enter and then expose a blot on my 4 point. 6/3 4/0 is very safe if I am missed.



USBGF Members: 54 b/20 b/21*
Neil Kazaross: 64 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 94
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC--DBD-------------AAccd-:1:1:1:61:5:7:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-ABC-B-B-cB---b-bbbbA--:0:0:-1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:64.51% (G:27.62% B:1.30%)64.96% (G:28.02% B:2.21%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:35.49% (G:10.62% B:0.68%)35.04% (G:11.05% B:1.27%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.541+1.248
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.652 (-0.162)±0.011 (+0.641..+0.663)
played Double/Take:+0.814±0.016 (+0.798..+0.830)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.186)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65542650
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Take
[ 5] Pass


Mary Hickey recommends: Take

His immediate threat looks big enough for him to double, but I can’t see it as sufficient for us to pass. For one thing, if he hits with a 2, we aren’t crispy critters, since we might anchor on the 23 and still have something of a game. If he has to hit inside with a 6 to freeze our blot on the 4 point in order to take another swing at it, we still might enter (hitting or not) and then either cover it or have him miss it again. We may not love our position, but it’s got enough in it, including our race lead if no hitting happens on this sequence, that the take has to be there. If his gammon threat were greater, maybe we’d have to scratch our heads a little harder, but it doesn’t look big enough to scare us away, especially since there’s pushback from our recube vig if the game takes a decent-sized turn for the better.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

I went through all my rolls, and I certainly have the advantage with threats.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-ABC-B-B-cB---b-bbbbA--:1:1:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedXG Roller++13/8eq: -0.079
Player:
Opponent:
55.48% (G:16.03% B:0.49%)
44.52% (G:11.06% B:0.43%)
2.XG Roller++23/22 13/9eq: -0.319 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:
52.60% (G:18.96% B:1.10%)
47.40% (G:24.37% B:0.74%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8.

A poor shot, but no reason to panic. I just play 13/8 adding an attacker aimed at their blot on my 2 point.



USBGF Members: 66 13/7(2) 10/4(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 95
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-CBCBB---b----c-bbbbA--:1:1:-1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedXG Roller++13/11 8/7eq: +0.087
Player:
Opponent:
64.36% (G:10.79% B:0.32%)
35.64% (G:16.71% B:0.84%)
2.XG Roller++13/10eq: -0.078 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:
57.55% (G:9.52% B:0.27%)
42.45% (G:12.30% B:0.45%)
3.XG Roller++13/12 13/11eq: -0.096 (-0.182)
Player:
Opponent:
56.81% (G:9.66% B:0.27%)
43.19% (G:12.68% B:0.50%)
4.XG Roller++8/5eq: -0.127 (-0.214)
Player:
Opponent:
55.62% (G:9.68% B:0.27%)
44.38% (G:10.91% B:0.36%)
5.XG Roller++13/12 8/6eq: -0.140 (-0.227)
Player:
Opponent:
55.50% (G:9.96% B:0.29%)
44.50% (G:13.61% B:0.55%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 8/7.

This 21 is a nice roll for me provided I have the guts to take a chance. I must have my bar point so noting that my opponents escape with a 5 whether it is blotted or not, I have to make the big play 13/11 8/7.

In exchange for several percent more gammons lost when I get hit and more blots get picked up, I will win at least several percent more games and a probably more gammons with the big play. Even at a pure gammon save score I think I have to take this chance to be in a near winning position when not hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 95
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-CBCBB---a-a--babbbbA--:1:1:1:42:5:7:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBa--BC-B---dE---b-cbb-A--:0:0:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:57.38% (G:22.26% B:0.57%)57.45% (G:23.02% B:0.44%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:42.62% (G:11.57% B:0.69%)42.55% (G:11.77% B:1.29%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.249+0.501
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.419±0.011 (+0.407..+0.430)
     Double/Take:+0.333 (-0.086)±0.016 (+0.317..+0.349)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.581)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61560494
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 23 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] No Double
[ 7] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

One way to think about this cube is compare it to the standard opening 5-5 blitz position that puts two on the bar, but one of them re-enters on the deuce point. (Equivalent parlays include the blitz hitting only one checker, which stays out, but there was one on the deuce already.) That position is a small no-double, though in practice for money you can put it out there and hope for the occasional odd pass. So if we start with that standard reference position and consider what is different about this one, we have a better chance of getting this right than if we start with a blank slate.

We are better off because of having the 5 point instead of the 3 point, but that’s not all that big here. Our still having the 8 point, which also means we have one more man in the Zone, plus having one of our back man out and safe, are both bigger factors in our favor. Now let’s consider what Neil has, and we see that instead of essentially just the opening position, he has both his 5 and 4 points! The passive counterplay that structure represents is huge here, because it means we can’t afford to blitz away and expect to re-enter quickly, possibly forming an advanced anchor in the process, as might happen in our reference position. Sure, we’ll hit loose if we have to when there are no other good options, but we’re not at all anxious to do so. From here, the most likely outcome is that he’s going to anchor, probably on the 2 point, with us having a point made behind him and a lot of work to do even just to get home with our other thirteen checkers. Even if we get that far, we can still lose with a barf sequence while bearing off against his anchor.

All in all, this doesn’t look like much of a cube. It’s less bad because of the score and his limited ability to recube us, but that factor doesn’t look like a swing factor. It’s possible we could lose our market, but given how much work we have to do to bring this game home, if it happens I won’t cry in my mango lasse over it.



USBGF Members: 52 23/16
Neil Kazaross: 42 b/23 13/9*
USBGF Members: 33 b/22 13/10(3)
Neil Kazaross: 63 9/3* 6/3
USBGF Members: 62 b/23 10/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-ABC-B-B-cB---b-bbbbA--:0:0:-1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


Today’s vote:

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sat 5/13 930p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-05-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 151
             
11 point match
              pip: 138
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB-BC-B---dE---b-cbb-A--:0:0:1:11:5:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout13/2*(2) 2/1*(2)eq: +0.432
Player:
Opponent:
56.78% (G:23.32% B:0.39%)
43.22% (G:11.82% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.419...+0.445) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout123/22 6/5 3/2*(2)eq: +0.260 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent:
55.71% (G:16.98% B:0.86%)
44.29% (G:13.39% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.247...+0.273) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
3.Rollout18/7(2) 3/2*(2)eq: +0.243 (-0.189)
Player:
Opponent:
54.75% (G:18.37% B:0.78%)
45.25% (G:13.77% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.230...+0.255) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes
4.Rollout123/22 8/7(2) 6/5eq: +0.146 (-0.287)
Player:
Opponent:
53.79% (G:16.50% B:1.16%)
46.21% (G:15.75% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.133...+0.159) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61560494
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 3/2*(2)/1*(2)
[ 6] 23/22 8/7(2) 6/5
[ 3] 23/22 6/5 3/2*(2)
[ 3] 8/7(2) 3/2*(2)


Mary Hickey recommends:

Our best positional play has to be 23/22 8/7(2) 6/5. But best-in-class doesn’t always mean good, and this play leaves him free to play and in many cases, gain more with his roll than we just did with ours. Our best tactical play has to be 3/2*(2)/1*(2), which blows him out of our home board for at least this turn. The choice looks to be between these two very different plays, because those that are in-between, hitting only once inside, seem too uncertain in their objectives.

If we hit only once, what do we do with the other half of the roll–make the bar point for a better position if he comes in on the ace? We’d still have a long way to go before we’d have much, since that double gap in our board could prove hard to fill in quickly. If instead we play 23/22 followed by 6/5 because it’s the only fourth ace that makes sense, we are better set to escape, but our home distribution of points is awkward, with the 8 and 2 points six apart. That’s never good, though it’s not so bad as to be a deal-breaker for this decision.

Let’s not worry about how to complete the play if we hit only once. The double hit has to be better if we’re going to hit at all, not because it avoids the problem of points six pips apart, but because it hits two checkers! Hitting is good, and two checkers on the bar are more numerous than one.

Do we expect to blitz him if we hit twice? No, not really. The most likely way for that to happen is he stays out, followed by our rolling something big enough to get two checkers from our midpoint both down far enough into our inner board to take aim at our unmade points, especially the 4 and 3. It’s possible for a blitz to happen other ways, though, so that possibility is part of our game plan.

If we don’t hit at all, we let him anchor with much greater ease, which in turn can enable him to attack our back man with far less risk. Not hitting also doesn’t buy us any game-time to get Junior out of there to avoid such an attack. If the positional play were more constructive than we see here, there’d be a better case for it, but it doesn’t gain all that much here. Most of the time, a double-ace does pretty well for such a small roll, making additional points, improving distribution or both. Here, the biggest gain from it is the 23/22 move, which enables us to escape more easily assuming he lets him just sit there. The play still seems pretty unsatisfying, though.

Let’s get back to the double hit, and think about what will happen if we do it, but the blitz never materializes. A likely alternative outcome is that he anchors somewhere, since we don’t have enough Crisloid in the zone to stop him. By then, though, we may have escaped Junior from his board, and if so, this game may morph into a pretty standard holding game, and us with a substantial racing lead. That’s not so bad, is it? I like the double hit, even though we can’t answer the question, “What’s your game plan?” yet. That’s going to be up to the dice.



Neil Kazaross: 21 b/23


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBa--BC-B---dE---b-cbb-A--:0:0:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-D---dE--ab-d-b-A--:0:0:1:33:5:7:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.455
Player:
Opponent:
60.36% (G:17.09% B:0.84%)
39.64% (G:10.90% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.442...+0.468) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
2.Rollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.373 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
58.45% (G:15.83% B:0.84%)
41.55% (G:11.66% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.360...+0.386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 44 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45895348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 8/5(2) 6/3(2)
[ 6] 13/10(2) 8/5(2)
[ 1] 23/20 13/10 8/5(2)


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5(2) 6/3(2)

Looks like as good a time as any to make our 5 point, especially since it doesn’t cost us our 8 point to do it. Now what about the other two 3s?

Making either the 10 or the 3 point is strong, and in both cases we unstack a heavy point when we make the new one. Too bad we can’t do both! But since we have to choose, let’s roll with strengthening our inner board for future action by making the 3 point. What we’d really like to see is a hit/fan sequence that might enable us to double because of our gammon threat, and making the 3 point increases the odds for that “fan” portion of the parlay. It also might make him think hard before he starts messing with our straggler in his home.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 138
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB-BC-B---dE--ab-d-b-A--:0:0:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout19/5 6/5eq: -0.311
Player:
Opponent:
43.52% (G:12.32% B:0.83%)
56.48% (G:17.55% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.323...-0.298) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 21 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.484 (-0.173)
Player:
Opponent:
38.17% (G:9.58% B:0.51%)
61.83% (G:14.06% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.496...-0.472) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 28 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61560494
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/5 6/5.

This is an easy decision. Lets say I make my 9 point with 13/9. Does it then help me to anchor 24/23 or simply not play that ace? I think 24/23 might result in me winning a bit less games, but would somewhat lower my rate of gammons lost. So while 24/23 might be my best ace, it isn’t a big gain to anchor. So clearly there’s a much better play and that is to make my 5 point. Often the best defense is a good offense. I’d honestly make my 5 point at a pure gammon save score noting that my opponents have only 9 checkers in the zone and may leave some fly shots trying to develop their stacked checkers on the mid point.

9/5 6/5 is very clear.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 151
             
11 point match
              pip: 138
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB-BC-B---dE---b-cbb-A--:0:0:1:11:5:7:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 172
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--bCC-B-BBcB-A--bbb-b---:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:69.03% (G:19.36% B:0.57%)69.28% (G:19.56% B:0.61%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:30.97% (G:5.18% B:0.31%)30.72% (G:5.36% B:0.46%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.528+1.105
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.916 (-0.072)±0.010 (+0.906..+0.926)
xg Double/Take:+0.988±0.013 (+0.975..+1.001)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.012)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67815246
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:96.4%
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] Double
[ 2] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

Now we have something! Our lead in the race is huge, to the point where we can (almost!) discount the possibility of his winning in the race. Our position has improved, too, with more points made on offense and few bad rolls this turn. Neil’s position on his side has also improved, but his counterplay in the moment is near zero; he will be counting on a much later shot unless he hits an indirect. OK, that’s two parts of the PRaT triad; what about our threats?

We don’t need a new threat here, because we just carried one out! It was to free our last back man, and also to set Neil much farther back in the race. Our 64 was a joker, carrying out an unlikely threat that was nonetheless very big when it actually came through for us.

This double has to be good at the score, given that the gammons are one-sided in our direction and that he needs more to recube us than he would for money, again because he will be cautious about “kicking the rock” that lets us recube for the match.


Neil Kazaross passes.

Ouch, the wrong time to fan when there’s plenty of play left. Let me take a good look at the position and see if I can determine my losses and gammon losses. I may not make a 2nd anchor and I often won’t time a 41 backgame anyhow. However, I may end up winning a 4 point holding game and that nuisance checker on the ace point may help me, or it may get attacked at some point leading to more gammon losses. I don’t like how my opponents’ doubles play and even the 33 that can’t safety their straggler plays nicely. My game is compromised somewhat by not having the gap on my 4 point. On a bad day I won’t be able to make it later and a quick hit isn’t nearly as strong.

If I owned my 4 point rather than my 3 point, my response would be “TAKE can’t pass this even at this score.” As it is I’d grab this cube for money or at many away many away but at this score, my recube vig is much less. I think this looks like a 70/20 position for the USBGF Members… i.e. they win 70% games and 20% gammons. Even noting my own few % gammon wins, this seems at best a score-based tossup so I’ll concede the point as I don’t think my their position is any more difficult to play than my own.

I pass reluctantly.


USBGF Members win one point. Neil Kazaross leads 4-away/6-away.



USBGF Members: 65 24/13


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eF---c-e----A-:0:0:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.246
Player:
Opponent:
43.80% (G:11.49% B:0.68%)
56.20% (G:12.88% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.258...-0.233) - [99.3%]
Duration: 4 hours 10 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: -0.268 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
44.27% (G:11.88% B:0.88%)
55.73% (G:14.61% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.281...-0.256) - [0.7%]
Duration: 4 hours 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67815246
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 13/9.

I think this is very close for money play and I’d usually slot to complicate. Here at the score and vs. the very strong Reader Collective it looks prudent to make a play that is less gammonish and split. Hopefully the rollout can teach us something at this score. I will go with the cautious split.



USBGF Members: 51 24/23 13/8
Neil Kazaross: 42 8/4 6/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-D---dE--ab-d-b-A--:0:0:1:33:5:7:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CC-B---dE--abAd--b-A-:0:0:1:63:4:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/18 13/10eq: +0.512
Player:
Opponent:
60.78% (G:16.62% B:0.56%)
39.22% (G:9.63% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.499...+0.525) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout18/2* 5/2eq: +0.398 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
55.97% (G:20.92% B:1.22%)
44.03% (G:13.82% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.385...+0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36792465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/18 13/10
[ 4] 8/2* 5/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/18 13/10

This is one of those rolls that let us do something good, but are not decisive in themselves. Hitting inside is no longer the right option for us, not because we don’t want to attack, but because we have something much better to do with this 63 than we had with that earlier 61. 24/18 is very strong, combining two blots that could have got us in trouble into a valuable defensive point. Then 13/10 makes sense with the 3, setting up to do good things if on this roll, he doesn’t do any bad things. For those worried this play is not aggressive enough, you can think of it as “passive aggressive”, setting up for a more effective and sustainable attack later on, with a Plan B defense in place as well.



Neil Kazaross: 32 24/21 23/21
USBGF Members: 62 18/16*/10
Neil Kazaross: 11 b/24 8/7* 6/5(2)
USBGF Members: 22 b/21 13/11(2)
Neil Kazaross: 64 13/7 8/4*
USBGF Members: 64 b/21*/15
Neil Kazaross: 55 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 172
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--bCC-B-BBcB-A--bbb-b---:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CC-B---dE--abAd--b-A-:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:60.97% (G:18.57% B:0.83%)61.06% (G:19.06% B:0.87%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:39.03% (G:11.14% B:1.33%)38.94% (G:11.64% B:1.98%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.270+0.572
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.537±0.014 (+0.523..+0.552)
     Double/Take:+0.454 (-0.084)±0.018 (+0.436..+0.471)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.463)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36792465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 17 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] No Double
[ 9] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

We have some rolls that do good things, but none of them are decisive unless he rolls something seriously lame in response. We aren’t ahead in the race, and our positional advantage is mostly about board quality and potential to improve, not anything all that solid. Nothing much is likely to happen between now and next turn, so let’s wait and see if we improve on this sequence, and then start thinking about a cube. No double, wait and see.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CC-B---dE--abAd--b-A-:0:0:1:63:4:7:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 163
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--BD-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:4:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.Rollout18/2* 2/1*eq: +0.312
Player:
Opponent:
53.86% (G:20.78% B:0.84%)
46.14% (G:13.74% B:1.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.298...+0.326) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 11 minutes
2.playedRollout124/18 6/5eq: +0.279 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
55.52% (G:15.63% B:0.71%)
44.48% (G:12.75% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.266...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13707498
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 24/18 6/5
[10] 8/2*/1*
[ 4] 13/7 8/7
[ 1] 13/6


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/2*/1*

If we hit twice, we start a very thin blitz, but that just might be the ticket to our catching up in this match. The only alternative that makes sense is the positional, put-em-where-they-want-to-go 24/18 6/5. What I don’t like about that play at the score is that if Neil gets a blitz of his own going, he can double us in a situation where four points gets him out clean, not something we want to see or have to figure out. That play leaves him free to try to do that.

If instead we start a blitz of our own and it fails, the odds are decent that we can organize a defense on his side before we get run over. If our blitz picks up any speed, we will be the ones doubling, and his recube will be slowed down by the prospect of “kicking the rock” that allows us to take and reship for the match.

The double hit is unsatisfactory because it costs us our 8 point and does nothing to unstack the mid, but it still looks right at this score, so I think we should try it: 8/2*/1*.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CC-B---dE--acAe----A-:0:0:-1:53:4:7:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/3.

This roll isn’t good and looking at my choices excites me about as much as looking at a bag of rotten apples. 9/1* doesn’t accomplish anything but to hope to be missed and roll better next turn. 23/18 9/6 makes a bigger stack and leaves me with little offense and hoping to survive on their side of the board. Making my 3 point does little to stymie my opponents but at least it accomplishes something and leaves me diversified if not hit. OK that clinches it for me —
I will make my 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CC-B---dE--abAd--b-A-:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-BC-D--Bc--a-b-dcbB---:0:0:-1:00:4:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:78.92% (G:3.79% B:0.08%)79.45% (G:3.58% B:0.10%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:21.08% (G:1.07% B:0.04%)20.55% (G:1.12% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.604+1.189
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.957 (-0.043)±0.005 (+0.952..+0.962)
xg Double/Take:+1.026 (+0.026)±0.007 (+1.019..+1.034)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78555927
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] Pass
[11] Take


Mary Hickey abstains.

For the first time ever, I abstained from voting today. Not on the local school bond issue, which I did go out and vote for. But here at the OLM, I don’t know which is the right course, so I’m leaving it to the readers!

My gut says to take because of the score (letting him go to 4-away from this far behind without a fight when the position isn’t gammonish doesn’t feel right) but I also know that I’m overly quick to justify three-anchor takes because of the score, even when I’m sure they’re a pass for money, as is the case here.

The race is an important component of our equity, but it’s not that good here. Even a 66 probably will get us only to parity, not a lead. There are also a couple of disquieting positional elements here, including our missing midpoint, yes, but also our missing 4 point plus a stiff and ineffective builder distribution. That’s bad for the race if we get that 66, and also bad if we hit a shot, especially if it comes early. He’ll have quite a bit of immediate life after death because of that dead spot which we aren’t set up well to remedy quickly.

If we had the same pip count, which is not very good for this kind of ending, but at least had a better quality board, a more fluid distribution, and something good to do with a 55, maybe we could find a decent take at the score. Maybe we have one anyway, but I have enough doubt to say I can’t recommend it. Over the board, I’d probably take, but I’d also let a doubles pard talk me out of it.

I took an ending like this vs. Ed O’Laughlin in a 9 point match in North Carolina, maybe in 2014. (He probably remembers the year, what time of night it was, where we were sitting, and whether the hotel coffee was any good!) Passing would have meant going down 1A8A Crawford, so take and reship meant at least a chance to start a comeback. I noted that if I hit him, he wouldn’t have a lot of “life after death” since I already had a top-four board, and was better set than here to improve. But on the downside, his position was also better than here, with his midpoint already cleared and just one distant straggler to bring home. I hated passing when it wasn’t all that hard to see how I could win it, even though it didn’t look all that appetizing. I forget what the race was. I finally convinced myself to take by saying, “…and also a redoubled gammon lets me win the match clean, and there are always a couple of percent gammons hiding in most contact positions.” Well, XG bonked the decision, and also said I’d only win about a half-percent gammons, but I got one of them! As we left the playing room, I suggested to the director that he confiscate Ed’s belt and shoelaces.

So whatever the readers decide today, is fine by me. If I’m needed to break a tie, I’m voting for a take, but I’m not bonking a pass.



Neil Kazaross wins one point, and leads 4-away/7-away



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 41 24/23 13/9


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 163
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--BD-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:4:7:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-02

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 138
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--D-D-ABc--a-b-dcbB---:0:0:1:51:4:6:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 10/5 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 10/5 6/5

It’s hard to see any play here except making our 5 point. As the forum posters have noted, the big decision will be tomorrow when Neil throws a cube our way. Let’s get a head start thinking about it now!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-BC-D--Bc--a-b-dcbB---:0:0:-1:00:4:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2017-05-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 145
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C-AAcB-b-b-ccaB---:0:0:1:52:4:6:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 13/11 13/8
[ 5] 11/9 6/1*
[ 3] 10/3
[ 3] 11/9 10/5
[ 1] 10/8 6/1*
[ 1] 8/1*
[ 1] 11/9 8/3


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/11 13/8

When a game that is drifting toward a loss, it’s often right to do something to change its direction. For this reason, we have to consider plays that include the tempo hit 6/1*. But the bad news on those plays is that our follow-up is difficult and may continue to be dangerous, even if we aren’t hit on this go. And if we are hit, several of his hitting rolls also cover on his 4 point, leaving us with only indirect shots back.

All these drawbacks are not automatic deal-breakers for those plays, but we have to first consider the simple play of bringing down the midpoint, 13/11 13/8. By doing this, we pretty much concede him his 4 point, but I think we can live with that considering how likely he was to make it anyway. The two-down play has the advantage of being easier to follow up if it works, meaning that he doesn’t hit us or escape. It also minimizes shots, which is good because we don’t want to risk losing our parity in the race unnecessarily. Overall, two-down looks like the best we can do with this lame number.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 138
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-D-ABc--b-b-ccaB---:0:0:-1:66:4:6:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 24/6 10/4.

Three of these joker 6’s are easily played: 24/12 10/4. Then there’s not much between the two remaining plays as each leave 4 shots. I will go with 12/6 since my remaining blot appears to be closer to safety and if it is hit and I roll a 3 from the bar, which I can’t use to enter, I can use it to return hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 138
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--D-D-ABc--a-b-dcbB---:0:0:1:51:4:6:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---dD-a-c-cc-B---:0:0:1:32:4:6:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/11 13/10eq: -0.266
Player:
Opponent:
40.50% (G:9.79% B:0.21%)
59.50% (G:11.14% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.275...-0.257) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
2.Rollout113/8eq: -0.364 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
38.43% (G:8.15% B:0.25%)
61.57% (G:11.98% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.374...-0.354) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78555927
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/11 13/10
[ 2] 13/8
[ 2] 13/11 6/3


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/11 13/10

If we didn’t already have a spare on the 8 point, weenieing with 13/8 might be best, but here bringing down extra builders to work with that spare to make blocking points in a hurry looks pretty good. The risk of the more forcing 13/11 13/10 doesn’t seem excessive, and even if we are hit, our anchor prevents it from being an immediate disaster.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 145
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C-AAdB-a-c-cc-B---:0:0:-1:43:4:6:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgXG Roller++24/20 13/10eq: +0.025
Player:
Opponent:
54.64% (G:9.91% B:0.39%)
45.36% (G:13.30% B:0.27%)
2.playedXG Roller++13/10 8/4eq: +0.017 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
53.83% (G:11.29% B:0.50%)
46.17% (G:12.53% B:0.38%)
3.XG Roller++13/10 13/9eq: +0.016 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
53.48% (G:12.54% B:0.56%)
46.52% (G:13.02% B:0.48%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 8/4.

My 3 is obviously 13/10 and now there are 3 fours to consider, noting that dumping my 4 deep into my board behind their anchor is too weak during the formative early game.

1) 24/20. Often when one doesn’t want to touch the forward checkers one just moves a back checker. But the problem here is that I step under the attack of 4 builders and my opponents have 11 checkers in the attack zone so the pointing attack my continue.

2) 13/9 slots my 9 point which I’d like to make and this checker also can be a builder for other points. This leaves 15 shots and not only dupes many 6’s it also dupes 42 and 51. This play looks like a strong candidate.

3) 8/4 leaves only 11 shots and goes after a very good point and dupes all my opponents’ 1’s except for 21. If they hit me they will often leave quite a few blots and be vulnerable to counter attack. While I don’t care for stripping the 8 point I have 30 rolls to nicely cover if not hit and if is often good to slot a key point when you own the point 6 pips behind it.

I’ll try 13/10 8/4.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 145
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C-AAcB-b-b-ccaB---:0:0:1:52:4:6:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 72
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BaBBBBB------B--bccbbbA:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:68.43% (G:45.93% B:0.04%)68.46% (G:45.96% B:0.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:31.57% (G:2.32% B:0.09%)31.54% (G:2.33% B:0.10%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.873+1.812
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.915 (-0.085)±0.008 (+0.907..+0.923)
     Double/Take:+1.413 (+0.413)±0.011 (+1.402..+1.424)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 39 minutes 50 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] Pass
[ 6] Take


Mary Hickey recommends: Pass

It’s not hard to see how we can win this game, so thinking about dropping can be difficult until we consider the gammons we will lose when he escapes with a 6 on this turn, or next turn if he rolls something small and doesn’t break. Another way it goes from bad to worse for us is if he does break, but we fail to enter, and then he rolls an escaping 6. We will then be relying on indirects to hit him, or maybe be lucky enough to enter on the 6 and have him roll a small enough number to give us one last whack at him.

I feel as though I should be able to provide an answer as to what percentage of gammons we lose when he rolls a 6 and freezes us till he’s partway into his bearoff, both if his spares are high the way they are now or if he’s been forced to move them down. I don’t know the answer to either half of that two-part question, but I do know that it’s quite a lot, given all the crossovers we will have to make, starting with getting in off the bar once he opens up. He’s likely to have at least two tries to get out with a 6 and start that parlay.

Throw in that a gammon gets him to 2-away, and this game looks even worse for us. We need to let this one go. Passing doesn’t leave us all that far behind in the match, so let’s not give him a good chance to turn it into a runaway.


Neil Kazaross wins one point, and now leads 5-away, 7-away.



Neil Kazaross: 52 24/22 13/8
USBGF Members: 51 24/23 13/8
Neil Kazaross: 63 22/13
USBGF Members: 53 8/3 6/3
Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5 6/5
USBGF Members: 21 24/22 23/22


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---eD---c-db-B---:0:0:-1:31:4:6:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedXG Roller++13/10 6/5eq: +0.143
Player:
Opponent:
56.49% (G:11.24% B:0.37%)
43.51% (G:9.72% B:0.28%)
2.XG Roller++24/21 6/5eq: +0.100 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
55.96% (G:10.09% B:0.37%)
44.04% (G:10.92% B:0.25%)
3.XG Roller++24/23 13/10eq: +0.072 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
54.89% (G:11.08% B:0.37%)
45.11% (G:11.00% B:0.30%)
4.XG Roller++24/20eq: +0.060 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
55.18% (G:9.17% B:0.33%)
44.82% (G:11.24% B:0.25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 6/5.

6/5 is where I should play my ace and then 13/10 unstacks and stays mostly out of harm’s way when compared to 24/21. If I play 24/21, they will be happy to attack that checker noting that all points that they will hit loose from have spares on them. After 13/10, their 52 shot is blocked and while they will hit with 61 they won’t be making their bar point.

13/10 6/5 provides builders for key points.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---dD-a-c-cc-B---:0:0:1:32:4:6:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 71
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-CBBBB------abBbcbc-bA:0:0:1:22:4:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 18/16*(2) 5/3eq: +0.172
Player:
Opponent:
58.36% (G:8.25% B:0.33%)
41.64% (G:21.48% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.164...+0.181) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 18/16* 16/14 5/3eq: +0.071 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
55.75% (G:8.88% B:0.37%)
44.25% (G:25.02% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.060...+0.082) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] b/23 18/16*(2) 5/3
[ 2] b/23 18/16*/14 5/3


Mary Hickey recommends: b/23 18/16*(2) 5/3

Awesome roll for us! But we have to be careful not to play it too cute. bar/23 5/3 and 18/16* for sure, but then do we want to hang back with the other man on the 18 to wait and see if he rolls something bad and gives us a chance at a second checker? If we even start an analysis like the one Neil just did, the answer is a definite No long before we finish it. I just looked at the five entering aces he has that hit us back, which are immediately catastrophic for us in most cases, compared to only four shot-leavers (1-6 and 2-6) which haven’t done anything for us unless we then hit that second checker. This trade-off is highly unfavorable, nothing like the one Neil had where he was only leaving us one joker, and gained some improvement the rest of the time.

There is another small vig favoring running 16/14, and that is if he rolls a 64, we have 19 shots at him instead of just 17. That might swing a close call, but this isn’t and it won’t.

We only have to win the game once. That last 2 wants to be played 18/16, committing fully to a 15 vs. 1 containment ending.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 87
             
11 point match
              pip: 131
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--B-BBBBB------Bb-bcbcAb-:0:0:-1:21:4:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 3/2*eq: -0.103
Player:
Opponent:
44.03% (G:24.48% B:0.09%)
55.97% (G:8.45% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.112...-0.094) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 5/4eq: -0.507 (-0.405)
Player:
Opponent:
33.02% (G:13.55% B:0.14%)
66.98% (G:7.57% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.516...-0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 3/2*.

I am delighted to be able to enter and hit, noting that this is still anybody’s game and I have good gammon chances.



USBGF Members: 63 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 84
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB-BBBBB------Bb-bcbbabA:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:50.63% (G:30.23% B:0.05%)50.74% (G:30.95% B:0.08%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:49.37% (G:5.42% B:0.21%)49.26% (G:5.94% B:0.28%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.302+0.641
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.201±0.008 (+0.193..+0.208)
     Double/Take:+0.009 (-0.192)±0.015 (-0.006..+0.025)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.799)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

With limited time before I crash I think that I need to get a 2 before I can cube. There are also a few horrid rolls for me.



Neil Kazaross: 32 23/21 5/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 79
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BaBBBBB------Bb-bbbbbbA:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:76.48% (G:55.59% B:0.06%)76.61% (G:55.58% B:0.09%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:23.52% (G:1.55% B:0.06%)23.39% (G:1.64% B:0.05%)
  Cubeless Equities+1.154+2.391
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.222±0.005 (+1.217..+1.228)
     Double/Take:+2.094 (+0.872)±0.011 (+2.083..+2.105)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.222)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 20.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 32 minutes 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

That 32 joker again leaves me too good and by a decent margin this time as I have 14 pips to play before crashing and am very likely to win a gammon if I can hop out.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 79
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BaBBBBB------Bb-bbbbbbA:0:0:-1:43:4:5:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 8/4.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 72
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BaBBBBB------B--bccbbbA:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


Today’s vote:

USBGF OLM 2017-04-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbBCBBB--aa---bBc-bb-bA:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 6/5eq: +0.239
Player:
Opponent:
57.88% (G:13.64% B:0.87%)
42.12% (G:18.95% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.226...+0.251) - [83.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 3/2eq: +0.230 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
57.10% (G:13.63% B:0.82%)
42.90% (G:18.47% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.217...+0.243) - [16.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/20 6/5
[ 5] b/20 3/2


Mary Hickey recommends: b/20 6/5

The 5 is forced, and the ace is almost as clear: 6/5 allows us to leave the point we want next slotted, but 3/2 pushes it down a spot. I don’t see any reason to make the other play–it “saves a 5”, but I don’t see us running short of 5s, whether we get hit again or not.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbCBBBB--aa---bBcAbb-b-:0:0:-1:43:4:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout112/5*eq: -0.275
Player:
Opponent:
41.39% (G:20.08% B:0.31%)
58.61% (G:13.33% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.286...-0.264) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout113/9 12/9eq: -0.313 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
41.81% (G:10.85% B:0.21%)
58.19% (G:9.11% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.322...-0.303) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/5*.

Bombs away here, as I am happy to attack with 12/5*. This leaves 16 return shots which I might survive with a good response and 16 chances for my opponents to dance, after which I am in good shape and can hopefully cover my 5 point and soon hop a checker out with a 6 and be on the way to winning a gammon. If the score were gammon save, I think I’d have to wimp and just make my 9 point.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbCBBBB--a----bBcabb-bA:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:52.72% (G:28.81% B:0.35%)52.56% (G:29.05% B:0.38%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:47.28% (G:9.53% B:0.38%)47.44% (G:9.48% B:0.37%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.285+0.598
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.224
     Double/Take:+0.047 (-0.177)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.776)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I think I now have some advantage, but I need to accomplish some of my threats prior to doubling.



Neil Kazaross: 63 21/18 8/5
USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AaCBBBBa-a----aBcbbb-bA:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:73.34% (G:47.97% B:0.43%)73.68% (G:47.68% B:0.41%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:26.66% (G:3.45% B:0.14%)26.32% (G:3.60% B:0.14%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.986+2.049
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.038
     Double/Take:+1.747 (+0.709)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.038)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 5.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

This joker followed by their dance has left me in a very powerful position from which I can win many gammons. At this score, a cubeless gammon is worth somewhat more than usual to me since it puts me at a critical score 4-away from victory. When I combine that with how poorly most of the reader’s entering rolls play due to their stripped position, I think I should play on here.

64 closes my board, 6’s escape, 5’s and 7’s make my 8 point and my other rolls are OK.

I think this is too good, and if not it must be close and I may be able to offer a more interesting (i.e. one where the readers may err) cube later on.



Neil Kazaross: 66 21/3 15/9
USBGF Members: 41 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-CBBBB--a---aaBcbbc-bA:0:0:-1:51:4:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedXG Roller++13/8 6/5eq: +1.502
Player:
Opponent:
90.32% (G:61.06% B:0.17%)
9.68% (G:0.66% B:0.03%)
2.xgXG Roller++13/8 9/8eq: +1.500 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
90.65% (G:60.27% B:0.17%)
9.35% (G:0.68% B:0.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 6/5.

It seems automatic to stack both checkers on the 8 pt but that gives me 6 blotting 6’s if my opponents roll anything but a 52 to escape. Maybe it is worth leaving a 22 shot with 6/5 to avoid this.

Let me do some math to see if it helps starting with stacking the 8 pt. I will be hit 6/36 x 11/36 of the time next roll on the 2 point and that is 66/1296. I expect I am a slight dog when hit so lets assume that I lose 36 of those 1296 games.

If I leave the 22 super joker I am hit 1/36 or 36/1296 of the time and will be a clear dog (but not dead yet) so let’s say I lose 22 of those games. This is looking to be worth the risk but note that 66 blots. 66 occurs 1/36 of the time and is hit 11/36 of the time and I will be a substantial dog after that and expect to lose maybe 8 of those 1296 games. Well, 22+8 is less than 36 so the math (assuming that I didn’t butcher it) seems to favor leaving 22 now.

Additionally after playing 6/5 I have one more roll (11) to make my close out. Also after 6/5 I can more safely clear my 8 pt with a roll like 43 after my opps dance and leave only 1 shot. Everything seems to be slightly in favor of playing 13/8 6/5 leaving the 22 super joker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 71
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-CBBBB------abBbcbc-bA:0:0:1:22:4:5:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-23

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 122
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDABB--bB---bBcabb-a-:0:0:1:63:4:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/7 6/3eq: +0.420
Player:
Opponent:
61.02% (G:12.04% B:0.48%)
38.98% (G:9.60% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.409...+0.431) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: +0.278 (-0.143)
Player:
Opponent:
58.23% (G:10.68% B:0.53%)
41.77% (G:11.76% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.268...+0.287) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 13/7 6/3
[ 6] 13/10 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/7 6/3

Of course we start by completing the point in the center of our prime, 13/7. The 3 gives us two reasonable choices, but 6/3 stands out as better than 13/10 for three reasons:

1) (strategic) If he hits, it’s not “with tempo”, getting one man off his increasingly blocked-in anchor.

2) (also strategic) Any return shots we get outside his board are better for us, because then we will be the ones that “hit with tempo”. If we hit him back, we will send a third man back and gain in the race, and so will need to be thinking about getting off the anchor. Doing that at the same time as hitting looks like a winning combo.

3) (tactical) 6/3 means most of his hits are with aces, which are duplicated to cover his 5 point.

That third item rates to be less important than the first two, as would be expected since hit-and-cover duplication is one of its least important varieties. But it still adds value to the right play, even though the first two reasons, and maybe just the first one alone, should be enough to make it right.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 122
             
11 point match
              pip: 128
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbBCBBB--bA---bBcabb-a-:0:0:-1:41:4:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedXG Roller++13/12* 5/1eq: -0.138
Player:
Opponent:
43.70% (G:19.03% B:0.39%)
56.30% (G:11.95% B:0.52%)
2.XG Roller++6/5 6/2eq: -0.432 (-0.293)
Player:
Opponent:
37.89% (G:4.96% B:0.06%)
62.11% (G:8.82% B:0.21%)
3.XG Roller++6/1eq: -0.435 (-0.297)
Player:
Opponent:
37.81% (G:5.33% B:0.07%)
62.19% (G:9.04% B:0.21%)
4.XG Roller++6/2 3/2eq: -0.448 (-0.310)
Player:
Opponent:
37.63% (G:4.83% B:0.06%)
62.37% (G:9.25% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12* 5/1.

This roll gives me a golden opportunity to try to seize the advantage. I must risk some returns shots by hitting 13/12* 5/1. If I am hit back in return I will have plenty of counter chances with my own return shots.

Passive play here will leave me stripped and praying to roll 66 next time so I have to risk changing the currently unfavorable course of this game.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbBCBBB--aa---bBc-bb-bA:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBD-BB--cB---bCcaba-a-:0:0:1:65:4:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedXG Roller++18/7eq: +0.206
Player:
Opponent:
56.22% (G:9.54% B:0.33%)
43.78% (G:8.88% B:0.17%)
2.XG Roller++13/8 13/7eq: +0.146 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
54.33% (G:9.96% B:0.37%)
45.67% (G:9.52% B:0.18%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 18/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 18/7
A solid prime is better than a broken one, and the risk that slotting the missing point in the middle of our broken prime will blow up in our collective face is about as low as it will get in this particular game. It seems the way to go, especially since there are no non-slotting plays that look good at all. We could slot our bar by bringing both checkers from our midpoint down, but 18/7 has the added advantages of getting the spare on our anchor moving, and allowing us to keep our midpoint. 18/7 looks to be the strongest and most efficient–“What’s not to like?”



Neil Kazaross: 64 13/3


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 122
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDABB--bB---bBcabb-a-:0:0:1:63:4:5:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aaD-DB--dB---bBd-b--aA:0:0:1:53:4:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 8/5*eq: +0.006
Player:
Opponent:
51.32% (G:12.65% B:0.69%)
48.68% (G:16.71% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.008...+0.020) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 8/3eq: -0.101 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
48.30% (G:11.99% B:0.62%)
51.70% (G:16.35% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.112...-0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 6/3eq: -0.118 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent:
47.71% (G:11.87% B:0.71%)
52.29% (G:16.32% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.130...-0.106) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65365702
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/20 8/5*
[ 3] b/20 6/3
[ 1] b/22 8/3


Mary Hickey recommends: b/20 8/5*

Now we almost have to hit him on the 5 point, bar/20 8/5*, because we don’t have a constructive alternative. About the only other play that even exists is bar/20 8/3, but that leaves us weak in two areas, which is never good. The blot on our own 3 point would not be threatened by an immediate attack, but its presence would leave him more free than he already is to hit us loose in his home. It looks better for us to start the hitting instead, and hope we make our own 5 point if missed, and his 5 point if we are hit.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---aAD-CB--dB---bBdAb--a-:0:0:-1:43:4:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout1Bar/21 4/1eq: -0.173
Player:
Opponent:
44.84% (G:10.61% B:0.22%)
55.16% (G:10.27% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.184...-0.162) - [95.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/21 6/3eq: -0.186 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
44.80% (G:10.43% B:0.25%)
55.20% (G:10.04% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.197...-0.176) - [4.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 8/5*eq: -0.262 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
43.01% (G:13.59% B:0.30%)
56.99% (G:13.72% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.274...-0.250) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65365702
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays .

B/21 makes a nice anchor and now I have to content myself with a somewhat inferior mutual holding game. 8/5* is way too loose. 4/1 is ugly. So it looks like 6/3, starting a new point.



USBGF Members: 32 20/18 8/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBD-BB--dB---bCc-ba-a-:0:0:-1:62:4:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedXG Roller++13/5eq: -0.176
Player:
Opponent:
44.46% (G:9.40% B:0.12%)
55.54% (G:9.45% B:0.33%)
2.XG Roller++8/6 8/2eq: -0.306 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:
41.59% (G:8.46% B:0.09%)
58.41% (G:10.95% B:0.39%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/5.

There’s nothing for me to play here but 13/5. If I leave my anchor, my remaining checker will get clobbered noting that my weak blotty board won’t deter an attack.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBD-BB--cB---bCcaba-a-:0:0:1:65:4:5:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 165
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aaD-DA--dC--abBd-b---A:0:0:1:41:4:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 13/9eq: -0.111
Player:
Opponent:
47.71% (G:10.14% B:0.35%)
52.29% (G:13.21% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.123...-0.100) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 9/5*eq: -0.247 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
45.33% (G:10.30% B:0.49%)
54.67% (G:17.54% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.260...-0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65365702
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] b/24 13/9
[ 7] b/24 9/5*


Mary Hickey recommends: b/24 13/9

There is very little point in continuing our attack here. If he hits us back, that’s a bad outcome, but so is having him simply anchor on the 4 point. In that case, we’d be better off with the 9 point already made than the 5 point merely slotted, and which we might fail to cover. The 5 point can wait; the 9 point is a good offensive point and we should just grab it while we can do so without risk.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aaD-DB--dB--abBd-b--A-:0:0:-1:62:4:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout19/1*eq: -0.067
Player:
Opponent:
48.28% (G:13.78% B:0.44%)
51.72% (G:12.77% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.079...-0.055) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout121/13eq: -0.093 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
48.41% (G:10.76% B:0.55%)
51.59% (G:13.52% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.104...-0.082) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout120/14 6/4eq: -0.113 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
47.93% (G:11.39% B:0.72%)
52.07% (G:13.98% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.124...-0.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78555927
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/1*.

My opponents’ 9 point now nicely pressures my checkers that have advanced in their board. I have 3 choice for this less than optimal 62.

1) I can run a checker to safety with 21/13. The problem with this is that this leaves me exposed to being hit with 2’s and pointed on by combos of 1,3,and 4. I think I can do better with play 2…

2) I can duplicate 2’s with 20/14 6/4. This while leaving me vulnerable to jokers, seems thematic with my race lead as it moves towards home. I would be happy to make my 9 point next roll with a 5 if not hit. But the problem is that if not hit with a 2, my remaining back checker will usually be hit with 4’s and 5’s.

3) I can punt 9/1* and hope for something better next roll. 1/9 of the time my opponents will dance and then I will be quite happy to have hit. If I get hit with an ace or even double hit, hopefully I can make an advanced anchor and stabilize.

They say, “when in doubt, hit.” Noting my better board and that I don’t like any play I will go with that.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aaD-DB--dB---bBd-b--aA:0:0:1:53:4:5:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-D---dCA-abBd-b----:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout114/8eq: +0.054
Player:
Opponent:
51.64% (G:10.01% B:0.38%)
48.36% (G:10.90% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.045...+0.064) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
2.playedRollout114/9 6/5*eq: +0.007 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
50.51% (G:13.04% B:0.53%)
49.49% (G:14.70% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.004...+0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91679238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 14/9 6/5*
[13] 14/8
[ 2] 6/5* 6/1*


Mary Hickey recommends: 14/9 6/5*

We are about equal in the race here, and also outboarded, which points toward playing safe. But on the other hand, we have an advanced anchor, and it’s OK that it’s outside his board when he has only two points made. The gammon risk won’t be that high if we’re hit just because we don’t have an anchor in his board. That means bold plays may be acceptable if they have a good enough chance to succeed.

Over the board, I would play 14/9 6/5*, booting him off his anchor-slot and trying to begin construction work on our offense before the window of opportunity closes. If we just sit there watching him develop his board, it may soon be strong enough that we have no choice but to keep tiptoeing around until either the dice bail us out, or we’re hit after a forced shot and then get doubled out. I’d rather take the chance now while we still have excellent chances to bounce back from a setback, if there is one.

That all said, the race does matter, and so playing safe may be advisable despite the candlesticks it leaves. The less than ideal distribution of five on the 8 point and three on the mid argues against that play, though not decisively, since at least that fifth checker is in the Zone and so might prove useful later. But over the board, there’s no way I’d talk myself into weenieing here. 14/8 has too much the look of a frogboiler to me. I’d hit and see what happens.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 158
             
11 point match
              pip: 145
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa---AD-DA--dC--abBd-b----:0:0:-1:53:4:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/20* 24/21eq: +0.212
Player:
Opponent:
54.28% (G:15.93% B:0.69%)
45.72% (G:9.90% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.207...+0.217) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 26 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20* 13/10eq: +0.197 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
53.46% (G:18.85% B:0.92%)
46.54% (G:11.19% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.192...+0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20* 9/6eq: +0.196 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
53.59% (G:17.81% B:0.81%)
46.41% (G:10.64% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.191...+0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 50 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72136553
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20* 24/21.

After hitting b/20* there are three 3’s to consider.

1) 9/6 is safe but looks stacked and nonconstructive.

2) 13/10 adds another builder but if I get hit somewhere, I don’t get to use that builder and I may run the risk of jokers from leaving more blots.

3) 24/21 looks clear to me as I now lead the race by 15 pips and would be happy to either make an advanced anchor or move my checkers closer to home next turn.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 165
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aaD-DA--dC--abBd-b---A:0:0:1:41:4:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--bAd-b--A-:0:0:1:65:4:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout124/18 13/8eq: -0.072
Player:
Opponent:
48.73% (G:9.01% B:0.30%)
51.27% (G:12.01% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.082...-0.062) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout124/18 10/5eq: -0.165 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
46.35% (G:9.22% B:0.39%)
53.65% (G:12.99% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.176...-0.155) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
3.Rollout124/18 6/1*eq: -0.207 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
45.65% (G:9.54% B:0.36%)
54.35% (G:14.99% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.218...-0.195) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 05 minutes
4.Rollout118/13 10/4*eq: -0.303 (-0.231)
Player:
Opponent:
43.76% (G:11.24% B:0.70%)
56.24% (G:18.73% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.315...-0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
5.Rollout110/4* 6/1*eq: -0.312 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:
43.48% (G:12.01% B:0.60%)
56.52% (G:20.29% B:1.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.324...-0.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91679238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/18 13/8
[ 2] 18/13 10/4*
[ 1] 24/18 10/5
[ 1] 10/4* 6/1*
[ 1] 24/18 6/1*


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/18 13/8

We have a good opportunity to make our defensive anchor on the 18 point, so any alternative has to be pretty strong to fight it. Since all the alternatives leave more than one blot and do nothing constructive, 24/18 must be our 6. Now what about the 5?

Slotting the 5 point is ambitious and well-intentioned, trying hard to seize the best point in our home, but it leaves 21 shots and doesn’t guarantee that we cover it if it’s missed. That isn’t an automatic deal-breaker for the play, but 13/8 leaves only 16 shots and also gives us many ways to make a good point if it’s missed. We might get the 5, the 4, the bar, or even just the 9 point, but they’re all good. Leaving five extra shots to make a stronger bid for the best point instead doesn’t look to be a good tradeoff.



Neil Kazaross: 51 21/15*
USBGF Members: 65 b/14*
Neil Kazaross: 65 b/20 15/9


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-D---dCA-abBd-b----:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:63:4:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/18 13/10eq: -0.328
Player:
Opponent:
43.50% (G:11.13% B:0.63%)
56.50% (G:20.65% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.333...-0.323) - [84.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 47 minutes
2.xgRollout124/15eq: -0.331 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
43.34% (G:9.48% B:0.50%)
56.66% (G:18.54% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.336...-0.327) - [16.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 06 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68643906
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/18 13/10
[ 9]


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/18 13/10

Split and down, 24/18 13/10, is the book money response to a 42 opener, but even without the bot’s rollouts we can see its advantages. It tries for good points on both sides of the board, hoping to end up with something good when the dust settles. This is the time to make this kind of bid for position, before it gets more dangerous.

If we were ahead on the score, especially if we couldn’t use all four points for a doubled gammon, we might prefer just running because it’s less complicating, and so is less likely to lead to gammons either way. Running can’t be awful here either, but trying for more than just getting one guy out of his board appears more natural from one point behind on the score.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---bAd-b--A-:0:0:-1:32:4:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/21 13/11eq: +0.012
Player:
Opponent:
49.87% (G:15.75% B:0.76%)
50.13% (G:13.41% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.007...+0.017) - [91.7%]
Duration: 15 hours 58 minutes
2.Rollout16/1*eq: +0.007 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
49.23% (G:17.13% B:0.66%)
50.77% (G:13.24% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.002...+0.012) - [8.3%]
Duration: 16 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 24/21eq: -0.005 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
49.53% (G:13.68% B:0.63%)
50.47% (G:12.32% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.010...0.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 42 minutes
4.Rollout213/8eq: -0.011 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
49.43% (G:14.43% B:0.55%)
50.57% (G:12.58% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.022...+0.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68643906
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68643906
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 13/11.

The slightly best reply to an opening 63 24/18 13/10 with 32 is to play 24/21 13/11, duplicating 6’s and 4’s and unstacking the mid point while going for my own anchor. With my 4 point made, I think the same play is still best. After 24/21, I could play 6/4, but that creates a dilly building while leaving only one spare on my 6 point. This could be correct if it left two spares remaining on my 6 point.

Another option since I have my 4 point made, and since my opponents missing 6’s and 4’s could be quite bad, especially 4 dances, is to hit loose 6/1*. But I doubt that is best with just 8 checkers in the zone.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--bAd-b--A-:0:0:1:65:4:5:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 86
             
11 point match
              pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBDaCC---a-----aababbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:87.72% (G:2.23% B:0.02%)88.33% (G:2.24% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:12.28% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)11.67% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.777+1.643
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.992 (-0.008)±0.001 (+0.991..+0.993)
     Double/Take:+1.594 (+0.594)±0.004 (+1.590..+1.598)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68643906
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] Double
[ 4] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

When there’s a market loss this huge, we have to consider, at least for a moment, whether we might be too good to double. I did think about it here, but not for very long. We have only a few rolls that start a potential gammon parlay, and on rolls where we can’t attack safely, we risk regaining our market on his big doubles. Add that most of our attacking rolls don’t give us much chance at a gammon even if we roll them, and it looks as though we should just take the point.


Neil Kazaross passes.


USBGF Members win 1 point. Neil Kazaross leads 6-away/7-away.



Neil Kazaross: 42 8/4 6/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:63:4:5:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-31

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBbCCB-B------aac-bbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:69.05% (G:1.48% B:0.02%)69.22% (G:1.44% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:30.95% (G:0.76% B:0.01%)30.78% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.388+0.793
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.649±0.008 (+0.641..+0.657)
     Double/Take:+0.619 (-0.029)±0.009 (+0.610..+0.629)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.351)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28566445
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] No Double
[ 3] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

As before, I don’t see us having any threats that are serious enough to justify a double now. It can easily go bad from here if we lose our race lead and perhaps end up with the worse distribution as well. If so, we don’t want him owning the cube, not only because he might throw it back, but because we will have lost our opportunity to possibly find an efficient cube later on that he has to pass. You know, like the one last game that he gave us and that I wanted to take anyway :0)

This isn’t the kind of position where we tend to have massive regrets if things go well and we lose our market. If one of our few market-losing sequences happens, at least we get to keep the point we score on the double-out, and we won’t have let a potential doubled gammon slip away.



USBGF Members: 66 10/4(2) 8/2(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBDbCC---------aac-bbbb-:0:0:-1:61:3:5:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout18/2 6/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.84% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
88.16% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [12.5%]
Duration: 17 minutes 26 seconds
2.playedRollout120/14 6/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.90% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
88.10% (G:2.28% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [12.5%]
Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout17/1 6/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.14% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
88.86% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [12.5%]
Duration: 16 minutes 29 seconds
4.Rollout18/2 7/6eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.78% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
89.22% (G:0.94% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [12.5%]
Duration: 14 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout18/1eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.63% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
89.37% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [12.5%]
Duration: 13 minutes 58 seconds
6.Rollout120/14 7/6eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.88% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
89.12% (G:1.95% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [12.5%]
Duration: 11 minutes 36 seconds
7.Rollout120/13eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.92% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
89.08% (G:2.21% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [12.5%]
Duration: 13 minutes 54 seconds
8.Rollout120/14 8/7eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.75% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
89.25% (G:2.22% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [12.5%]
Duration: 10 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 68643906
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/14 6/5.

I’ll play 20/14 6/5, not wasting pips and attempting to close my board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 86
             
11 point match
              pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBDaCC---a-----aababbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:42:3:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout17/3 4/2eq: +0.595
Player:
Opponent:
67.46% (G:1.23% B:0.02%)
32.54% (G:0.65% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.586...+0.604) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.Rollout17/1eq: +0.560 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
66.61% (G:1.34% B:0.02%)
33.39% (G:0.88% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.552...+0.569) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
3.Rollout16/2 4/2eq: +0.546 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
66.31% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
33.69% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.538...+0.555) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
4.Rollout18/6 8/4eq: +0.540 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
66.18% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
33.82% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.532...+0.549) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85172974
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 7/3 4/2
[ 3] 10/8 10/6
[ 2] 6/2 4/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/3 4/2

I think this one will be unanimous: The checkers just fall naturally into place with 7/3, completing our started point in the line, and 4/2, starting the next one. Keeping his anchor blocked as well as we can has to be thematic here. Don’t give him safe double-jumps with his big rolls that also get him off to a good start in close race! Instead, we need to build our board and hope that later on, he’s either forced off with one checker, or crashes and so wastes pips in the race.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBbCCBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:-1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout116/8eq: -0.649
Player:
Opponent:
30.88% (G:0.73% B:0.01%)
69.12% (G:1.42% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.652...-0.646) - [99.6%]
Duration: 8 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout116/11 7/4eq: -0.655 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
30.72% (G:0.68% B:0.01%)
69.28% (G:1.51% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.658...-0.652) - [0.4%]
Duration: 7 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout116/11 6/3eq: -0.658 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
30.54% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
69.46% (G:1.49% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.661...-0.655) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 47 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85172974
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/8.

I’ll play 16/8, keeping 3 builders for my 5 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBbCCB-B------aac-bbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:69.99% (G:1.50% B:0.02%)70.30% (G:1.47% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:30.01% (G:0.67% B:0.01%)29.70% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.409+0.842
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.673 (-0.003)±0.003 (+0.670..+0.676)
xg Double/Take:+0.676±0.004 (+0.672..+0.680)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.324)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85172974
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:85.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 hours 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] No Double
[11] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

I don’t quite see a cube for us here. This is exactly the kind of cube Neil wants at the score, an easy one with about as little gammon-juice as you can find in a contact position, and with the race quite close if we don’t hit him. I think we can risk a few market losers in order to send a cube later on that we can hope won’t be what Neil calls a “huge, honking take”. This one’s honking like an 18-wheeler on black ice! Next turn, maybe not so much.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:42:3:5:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 109
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACcCBB-B--B----bb-bbbb-:0:0:1:33:3:5:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/7(2)eq: +0.588
Player:
Opponent:
67.21% (G:1.52% B:0.03%)
32.79% (G:0.70% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.584...+0.591) - [99.4%]
Duration: 6 hours 57 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/7 6/3eq: +0.582 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
66.97% (G:1.55% B:0.03%)
33.03% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.578...+0.585) - [0.6%]
Duration: 6 hours 50 minutes
3.Rollout213/10 13/7 4/1eq: +0.568 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
66.76% (G:1.72% B:0.03%)
33.24% (G:0.88% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.560...+0.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 23 seconds
4.Rollout213/10(2) 6/3 4/1eq: +0.565 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
66.37% (G:1.67% B:0.02%)
33.63% (G:0.91% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.557...+0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout213/10 13/4eq: +0.562 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
66.51% (G:1.47% B:0.03%)
33.49% (G:0.73% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.554...+0.570) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 14 seconds
6.Rollout213/10(2) 4/1(2)eq: +0.548 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
65.89% (G:1.60% B:0.03%)
34.11% (G:0.89% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.541...+0.556) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47733525
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47733525
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 13/7(2)
[ 4] 13/10 13/7 6/3
[ 1] 10/7 10/4 6/3
[ 1] 10/7(2) 6/3 4/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/10 13/7 6/3

I don’t see much difference between 13/10 13/7 6/3 and the simple 13/7(2), but I voted for the former to prevent his getting any ideas about stepping out with a 41. We want to close in on a recube, so we definitely don’t want him running that third checker — we want him to start crashing!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACcCDB-B-------bb-bbbb-:0:0:-1:41:3:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout120/16 7/6eq: -0.677
Player:
Opponent:
29.75% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)
70.25% (G:1.39% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.686...-0.669) - [20.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout17/3 6/5eq: -0.757 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
27.94% (G:0.44% B:0.01%)
72.06% (G:1.47% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.766...-0.748) - [20.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout120/16 6/5eq: -0.758 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
28.73% (G:1.92% B:0.03%)
71.27% (G:3.46% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.767...-0.749) - [20.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout17/6 7/3eq: -0.776 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
27.52% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
72.48% (G:1.64% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.784...-0.767) - [20.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 43 seconds
5.Rollout17/2eq: -0.779 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
27.52% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)
72.48% (G:1.54% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.787...-0.770) - [20.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47733525
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/16 7/6.

7/6 brings a checker to a good spot in my board. 20/16 attempts to escape my spare at the cost of a few shots that my opponents may not even want to hit with some rolls that can.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10