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is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 175  
11 point match  
pip: 58 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=cCcHDbbbba:1:1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 21 
1.  Rollout^{1}  5/4 2/Off  eq: +0.122  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  5/2  eq: +0.106 (0.017)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
USBGF Members vote:
[20] 5/4 2/0
[ 9] 5/2
Mary Hickey recommends: 5/4 2/0
The ace is forced, 5/4. If there were any serious possibility we could get in trouble and leave a shot with a later 2, then we might consider “smoothing” with 4/2, but we have so many 2s to play from the 4 point that it’s too unlikely to worry about. The bigger deal is to have as many checkers off as possible if we leave a shot and get hit, so that if he succeeds in containing and closing it out, we will have our best chance of still winning the game. 5/4 2/off looks clear.
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 175  
11 point match  
pip: 55 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=cBcICbbbba:1:1:1:65:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 65 
1.  Rollout^{1}  24/19 22/16  eq: 0.102  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  24/18 22/17  eq: 0.102 (0.001)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  24/13  eq: 0.103 (0.002)  
 
4.  Rollout^{2}  22/11  eq: 0.107 (0.005)  
 
^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 24/19 22/16.
I think it is now time two move both spares out which makes it virtually certain that I won’t crash even a little bit. I don’t see much difference between the two plays, but 24/19 22/16 looks better diversified that having the checkers next to each other on the 17 and 18 points.
USBGF Members: 55 5/0(3) 4/0
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 164  
11 point match  
pip: 36 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=bBbHaabbbba:1:1:1:42:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 42 
1.  Rollout^{1}  22/18 19/17  eq: 0.392  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  22/18 16/14  eq: 0.392 (0.000)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  22/16  eq: 0.393 (0.002)  
 
4.  Rollout^{1}  22/20 16/12  eq: 0.394 (0.002)  
 
5.  Rollout^{1}  22/20 19/15  eq: 0.395 (0.004)  
 
^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 22/18 16/14.
Things are going downhill quickly, but all is not lost. I need to activate my opponents’ blotting aces with 22/18. After that, it hardly matters, but I’ll go with 16/14 to get a checker closer to an enter and hop point if I hit a checker soon. In general the point I want next make here is my bar point.
USBGF Members: 31 4/3*/0
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 161  
11 point match  
pip: 32 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=abBGaaabbbba:1:1:1:41:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 41 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24 19/15  eq: 0.475  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24 14/10  eq: 0.478 (0.003)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24 18/14  eq: 0.478 (0.003)  
 
4.  Rollout^{2}  Bar/20  eq: 0.506 (0.030)  
 
^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays b/24 19/15.
I want this checker to end up on the 22 point for now while retaining the 24 point. The way to get this checker on the bar to the 22 point is to enter on the 24 point. Then 19/15 looks fine and diversified to me.
I don’t want to break the 24 point and activate blotting 3’s as if I miss that shot, it is probably my last shot.
USBGF Members: 65 4/0(2)
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 156  
11 point match  
pip: 24 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=cBEaaabbbba:1:1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 21 
1.  Rollout^{1}  24/22 14/13  eq: 0.482  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  24/22 18/17  eq: 0.483 (0.000)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  24/22 15/14  eq: 0.484 (0.001)  
 
^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 14/13.
24/22 puts a checker where I want it to enhance my chances to hit a shot, and 14/13 gives me a direct 6 to aim at my bar point which I will usually want to make.
USBGF Members: 55 4/0(4)
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 153  
11 point match  
pip: 8 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=bBaAaaabbbba:1:1:1:51:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 51 
1.  Rollout^{1}  22/21* 18/13  eq: 0.125  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  24/19 22/21*  eq: 0.129 (0.004)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  22/21* 21/16  eq: 0.133 (0.008)  
 
4.  Rollout^{2}  22/21* 15/10  eq: 0.138 (0.013)  
 
5.  Rollout^{2}  22/21* 13/8  eq: 0.146 (0.021)  
 
^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 22/21*/16.
22/21* is heaven sent, and I slightly prefer blocking 11 for now with 21/16. I can play 24/19 and gain on 21 but get ruined by 11. However, that means 21 is the only blotting ace so I think I should wait until more aces force two blots before paying off hugely to 11.
USBGF Members: 22 b/23
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 147  
11 point match  
pip: 27 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=bBaaaabbbbAa:1:1:1:66:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 66 
1.  Rollout^{1}  24/12 18/12 16/10  eq: 0.145  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  24/12 18/12 13/7  eq: 0.154 (0.009)  
 
3.  Rollout^{2}  24/6 18/12  eq: 0.159 (0.014)  
 
4.  Rollout^{2}  24/12 18/12 15/9  eq: 0.170 (0.025)  
 
^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 24/12 18/12 16/10.
It looks like 3 of my 6’s should be used to make my 12 point, blocking 55, and putting builders in my outfield aiming at my desired 7 and 8 points. Then I think slotting the bar point is needlessly risky and that 16/10 gives better coverage than 15/9. Also in favor of 16/10 is that if I get hit with an 8 and roll a 2 from the bar, I can return hit.
Choices to make the 12 point leave a joker 11 but this is now in exchange for 6 bad double blotting aces and if I retain the 24 point it seems that I have to misplace checkers with this 66.
USBGF Members: 32 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 123  
11 point match  
pip: 27 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=aBaababbbbAa:1:1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 52 
1.  Rollout^{1}  13/8 10/8  eq: 0.038  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  15/8  eq: 0.164 (0.126)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  12/7 10/8  eq: 0.177 (0.139)  
 
4.  Rollout^{1}  15/13 12/7  eq: 0.178 (0.140)  
 
5.  Rollout^{1}  13/8 12/10  eq: 0.193 (0.155)  
 
6.  Rollout^{1}  12/5  eq: 0.193 (0.155)  
 
7.  Rollout^{1}  12/10 12/7  eq: 0.194 (0.156)  
 
8.  Rollout^{1}  10/3  eq: 0.201 (0.163)  
 
9.  Rollout^{1}  15/13 10/5  eq: 0.209 (0.171)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 10/8.
I’ll make my 8 point, which adds 61 and 51 to their list of horror double blotting aces.
USBGF Members: 63 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 116  
11 point match  
pip: 27 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=aBabbbbbbAa:1:1:1:33:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 33 
1.  Rollout^{1}  15/6 12/9  eq: 0.134  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  15/3  eq: 0.153 (0.019)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  12/9 12/3  eq: 0.157 (0.023)  
 
4.  Rollout^{1}  12/6(2)  eq: 0.162 (0.027)  
 
5.  Rollout^{1}  15/9 8/2*  eq: 0.169 (0.035)  
 
6.  Rollout^{1}  24/18 12/6  eq: 0.190 (0.056)  
 
7.  Rollout^{1}  15/9 12/9(2)  eq: 0.203 (0.068)  
 
8.  Rollout^{1}  12/9(2) 8/2*  eq: 0.203 (0.069)  
 
9.  Rollout^{1}  12/6 8/2*  eq: 0.208 (0.074)  
 
10.  Rollout^{1}  24/21 12/3  eq: 0.210 (0.076)  
 
11.  Rollout^{1}  24/18 15/9  eq: 0.213 (0.078)  
 
12.  Rollout^{1}  24/15 12/9  eq: 0.214 (0.079)  
 
13.  Rollout^{1}  8/2*(2)  eq: 0.225 (0.090)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 15/6 12/9.
One issue with this type of position is that I have to keep moving my checkers towards home where, after a while, I’d prefer to just keep them where they are and wait for my opponents to roll a horror ace. Here I have to weaken some outfield coverage since making the 2 point looks to be very wrong at DMP as I really need to hit a 2nd checker. Hitting loose also looks wrong as then my opps will only have 2 blotting rolls rather than 10 and this also weakens my containment.
So 15/6 12/9 appears to be my best bet. If I am hit with 52, my overall chances to recapture the escapee don’t seem to be worse than if I am not hit. If they roll the 55 joker, I have 18 return shots. 15/3 seems too awkward so I will have to pay off to the 55 joker.
USBGF Members: 33 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 104  
11 point match  
pip: 27 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=aBaabcbbbAa:1:1:1:61:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 61 
1.  Rollout^{1}  9/2*  eq: 0.179  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  9/3 6/5  eq: 0.198 (0.019)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  12/11 9/3  eq: 0.211 (0.033)  
 
4.  Rollout^{1}  12/5  eq: 0.220 (0.041)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 9/2*.
I am running out of time to keep all my checkers where I want to and wait. If I play 12/5, I give up outfield control and I don’t really want to close my board anyhow since I will only win about one game in 5 if I am forced to close my board here. If I play 9/3 6/5, my spare on the 3 point is quite misplaced.
So I will hit 9/2* and hope to be hit back so I can gain some more time to wait for the USBGF Members to break their 2 point. This would be risky at a normal score where I can lose a gammon or backgammon.
USBGF Members: 41 b/24*
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 121  
11 point match  
pip: 28 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=aaBabcbbbaA:1:1:1:63:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 63 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/22 8/2  eq: 0.143  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/16  eq: 0.196 (0.053)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/19 6/3  eq: 0.207 (0.063)  
 
4.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/19 4/1*  eq: 0.211 (0.068)  
 
5.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/19 5/2  eq: 0.218 (0.075)  
 
6.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/19 12/9  eq: 0.219 (0.076)  
 
7.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/19 24/21  eq: 0.251 (0.107)  
 
8.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/22 24/18  eq: 0.263 (0.120)  
 
9.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/22 12/6  eq: 0.276 (0.132)  
 
10.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/19 8/5  eq: 0.294 (0.150)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays b/22 8/2.
This has worked out according to plan. I now have a 2nd checker way back for some outfield control and timing and can also cover my 2 point making most aces again bad for my opponents. It will also be easier for me to close my board from here if I do hit more checkers.
USBGF Members: 41 2/1*
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 113  
11 point match  
pip: 27 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=aAAaaacbbbbA:1:1:1:54:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 54 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/21 6/1*  eq: +0.207  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/20 5/1*  eq: +0.085 (0.121)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/21 12/7  eq: 0.098 (0.304)  
 
4.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/21 22/17  eq: 0.197 (0.403)  
 
5.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/16  eq: 0.200 (0.407)  
 
6.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/20 8/4  eq: 0.205 (0.412)  
 
7.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/20 22/18  eq: 0.206 (0.412)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays b/21 6/1*.
Unfortunately, I missed, but fortunately I have a spare 5 to hit loose with and plenty of time to leave my ace point slotted if not hit.
USBGF Members: 53 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 104  
11 point match  
pip: 28 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AAaaaabbbbbaA:1:1:1:31:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 31 
1.  Rollout^{1}  12/11 8/5  eq: +0.204  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  21/20 8/5  eq: +0.203 (0.002)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  22/21 8/5  eq: +0.201 (0.004)  
 
4.  Rollout^{1}  8/4  eq: +0.198 (0.006)  
 
5.  Rollout^{1}  21/18 12/11  eq: +0.197 (0.008)  
 
6.  Rollout^{1}  21/18 8/7  eq: +0.196 (0.008)  
 
7.  Rollout^{2}  22/19 12/11  eq: +0.195 (0.009)  
 
8.  Rollout^{1}  22/19 8/7  eq: +0.194 (0.010)  
 
9.  Rollout^{2}  12/9 8/7  eq: +0.193 (0.011)  
 
10.  Rollout^{2}  22/18  eq: +0.192 (0.012)  
 
11.  Rollout^{2}  22/19 21/20  eq: +0.192 (0.013)  
 
12.  Rollout^{2}  21/17  eq: +0.191 (0.014)  
 
13.  Rollout^{2}  12/8  eq: +0.186 (0.019)  
 
14.  Rollout^{2}  22/21 12/9  eq: +0.183 (0.022)  
 
15.  Rollout^{2}  21/20 12/9  eq: +0.181 (0.023)  
 
^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 22/19 8/7.
I think it is worth the slight possible loss from being double hit to play 8/7. That means that if I am hit, I can rehit with a missing 6 or 33. It also means that I can make my prime with a 5. A prime is (likely temporary since a prime isn’t really valuable here and builders may be more important. Then 22/19 gives me 3 more numbers to make that prime.
USBGF Members: 54 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 100  
11 point match  
pip: 28 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AAaaaabbbbbaA:1:1:1:51:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 51 
1.  XG Roller++  19/18 12/7  eq: +0.134  
 
2.  XG Roller++  21/20 12/7  eq: +0.134 (0.000)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  12/6  eq: +0.133 (0.001)  
 
4.  XG Roller++  21/16 7/6  eq: +0.130 (0.004)  
 
5.  XG Roller++  19/14 7/6  eq: +0.130 (0.004)  
 
6.  XG Roller++  19/13  eq: +0.128 (0.006)  
 
7.  XG Roller++  19/14 12/11  eq: +0.124 (0.010)  
 
8.  XG Roller++  21/16 12/11  eq: +0.120 (0.014)  
 
9.  XG Roller++  21/16 19/18  eq: +0.120 (0.014)  
 
10.  XG Roller++  21/20 19/14  eq: +0.119 (0.015)  
 
11.  XG Roller++  21/15  eq: +0.117 (0.017)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 19/18 12/7.
Hmm… do I want this prime or do I want a builder with 12/6? Note that this builder is for use after I hit more checkers. Noting that I have no checkers close to my outer board for close coverage and would hate to see a 61 roll, I will make the prime. Then I slightly prefer 19/18 getting another checker a bit closer to home.
USBGF Members: 64 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 94  
11 point match  
pip: 28 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AAaabbbbbbaA:1:1:1:31:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 31 
1.  XG Roller++  18/14  eq: +0.119  
 
2.  XG Roller++  7/6 7/4  eq: +0.117 (0.001)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  21/18 7/6  eq: +0.117 (0.002)  
 
4.  XG Roller++  21/20 18/15  eq: +0.116 (0.003)  
 
5.  XG Roller++  18/15 7/6  eq: +0.115 (0.004)  
 
6.  XG Roller++  21/17  eq: +0.114 (0.004)  
 
7.  XG Roller++  21/20 7/4  eq: +0.110 (0.008)  
 
8.  XG Roller++  18/17 7/4  eq: +0.109 (0.010)  
 
9.  XG Roller++  7/3  eq: +0.083 (0.036)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 18/14.
18/14 sticks with my plan to put this spare on my 6 pt for now and to retain the prime for now.
USBGF Members: 53 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 90  
11 point match  
pip: 28 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AAaabbbbbbaA:1:1:1:53:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 53 
1.  XG Roller++  14/6  eq: +0.076  
 
2.  XG Roller++  21/18 14/9  eq: +0.067 (0.009)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  14/9 7/4  eq: +0.065 (0.011)  
 
4.  XG Roller++  21/16 14/11  eq: +0.065 (0.011)  
 
5.  XG Roller++  21/13  eq: +0.063 (0.013)  
 
6.  XG Roller++  21/16 7/4  eq: +0.062 (0.014)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 14/6.
This is where I want this spare.
USBGF Members: 33 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 82  
11 point match  
pip: 28 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AAabcbbbbaA:1:1:1:65:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 65 
1.  XG Roller++  21/10  eq: 0.010  
 
2.  XG Roller++  21/15 7/2  eq: 0.043 (0.033)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  21/16 7/1  eq: 0.367 (0.357)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 21/10.
No choice here and I am rolling too large.
USBGF Members: 21 b/24*
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 95  
11 point match  
pip: 27 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=aAAabcbbbbA:1:1:1:32:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 32 
1.  XG Roller++  Bar/23* 4/1*  eq: +0.474  
 
2.  XG Roller++  Bar/23* 7/4  eq: +0.459 (0.014)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  Bar/23* 23/20  eq: +0.433 (0.041)  
 
4.  XG Roller++  Bar/23* 10/7  eq: +0.430 (0.044)  
 
5.  XG Roller++  Bar/23* 6/3  eq: +0.426 (0.048)  
 
6.  XG Roller++  Bar/23* 5/2  eq: +0.383 (0.091)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays b/23* 4/1*.
I’ve played enough endgame props over the years to suspect it is time for a “Looks Really Cool” play, since I have so much diversification. The ideas in play here are that this looks like the best way to prevent my opponents from anchoring on my ace point and also best to pick up a 3rd checker. If I close only 2 checkers out, I think I can win a bit less than 75%, but if can close out all 3 checkers I win over 90%. Noting that I cannot be gammoned or backgammoned, this seems worth the risk of a blowup.
USBGF Members: 51 b/24*
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 114  
11 point match  
pip: 50 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=aAaabcbabbAA:1:1:1:62:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 62 
1.  XG Roller++  Bar/23 10/4  eq: +0.451  
 
2.  XG Roller++  Bar/23 7/1*  eq: +0.444 (0.007)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  Bar/19 7/5  eq: +0.430 (0.021)  
 
4.  XG Roller++  Bar/19 6/4  eq: +0.430 (0.021)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays b/23 10/4.
Hitting loose on the ace point looks to be rather big now, as I have another checker back and would also break my bar point. As more of my checkers get sent back, the risk of failing to close out becomes greater. My spare on my 6 point is well placed, so I leave it there and recover my 4 point with my 6.
USBGF Members: 53 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 106  
11 point match  
pip: 50 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AbbcbbbbAA:1:1:1:65:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 65 
1.  XG Roller++  23/18 7/1*  eq: +0.505  
 
2.  XG Roller++  23/17 6/1*  eq: +0.493 (0.013)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  7/1* 6/1  eq: +0.489 (0.016)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 23/18 7/1*.
I am quite certain from previous study and even a prop decades ago, that closing my board isn’t optimal. I may have to do it later rather than misplace my spares, but I can afford to try for the 3rd checker for a while. I play 7/1*, since I retain a 5 prime board and want better distribution if I get hit. If my opponents anchor, I want to be blotted on my bar point anyhow to force them out with a 6 to give me another chance at an ace.
USBGF Members: 64 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 95  
11 point match  
pip: 51 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AaaacbbbbaB:1:1:1:64:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 64 
1.  XG Roller++  18/8  eq: +0.523  
 
2.  XG Roller++  23/17 18/14  eq: +0.517 (0.006)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  23/13  eq: +0.515 (0.008)  
 
4.  XG Roller++  23/19 18/12  eq: +0.514 (0.009)  
 
5.  XG Roller++  18/12 7/3  eq: +0.512 (0.011)  
 
6.  XG Roller++  23/17 7/3  eq: +0.511 (0.012)  
 
7.  XG Roller++  18/14 7/1  eq: +0.496 (0.027)  
 
8.  XG Roller++  23/19 7/1  eq: +0.495 (0.028)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 18/8.
I’m sticking with the plan and getting this checker closer to home, where it will soon be a builder to attack on my ace point after I am hopefully hit there and pick up their 3rd checker.
USBGF Members: 43 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 85  
11 point match  
pip: 51 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AaaacbbbbaB:1:1:1:53:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 53 
1.  XG Roller++  23/18 8/5  eq: +0.533  
 
2.  XG Roller++  23/15  eq: +0.525 (0.008)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  23/20 8/3  eq: +0.524 (0.009)  
 
4.  XG Roller++  23/18 7/4  eq: +0.523 (0.010)  
 
5.  XG Roller++  8/3 7/4  eq: +0.520 (0.013)  
 
6.  XG Roller++  23/18 6/3  eq: +0.512 (0.021)  
 
7.  XG Roller++  8/5 7/2  eq: +0.497 (0.036)  
 
8.  XG Roller++  23/18 4/1  eq: +0.493 (0.040)  
 
9.  XG Roller++  8/5 6/1  eq: +0.492 (0.042)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 23/18 8/5.
I stick with the plan to try to catch the 3rd checker and leave very nice distribution.
USBGF Members: 42 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 77  
11 point match  
pip: 51 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AaaccbbbaB:1:1:1:52:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 52 
1.  XG Roller++  18/11  eq: +0.525  
 
2.  XG Roller++  18/13 6/4  eq: +0.522 (0.002)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  18/13 5/3  eq: +0.517 (0.007)  
 
4.  XG Roller++  18/13 7/5  eq: +0.517 (0.008)  
 
5.  XG Roller++  18/16 7/2  eq: +0.498 (0.027)  
 
6.  XG Roller++  18/13 3/1  eq: +0.496 (0.029)  
 
7.  XG Roller++  7/2 6/4  eq: +0.490 (0.035)  
 
8.  XG Roller++  18/16 6/1  eq: +0.487 (0.038)  
 
9.  XG Roller++  7/2 5/3  eq: +0.485 (0.040)  
 
10.  XG Roller++  7/5 6/1  eq: +0.482 (0.043)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 18/11.
I bring the last checker around and retain nice distribution.
USBGF Members: 42 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 70  
11 point match  
pip: 51 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AaaccbbbaB:1:1:1:11:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 11 
1.  XG Roller++  11/7  eq: +0.522  
 
2.  XG Roller++  11/10 7/4  eq: +0.522 (0.000)  
 
3.  XG Roller++  11/8 2/1  eq: +0.522 (0.001)  
 
4.  XG Roller++  11/8 5/4  eq: +0.519 (0.003)  
 
5.  XG Roller++  11/9 6/4  eq: +0.518 (0.004)  
 
6.  XG Roller++  11/8 7/6  eq: +0.515 (0.007)  
 
7.  XG Roller++  11/9 7/5  eq: +0.515 (0.007)  
 
8.  XG Roller++  7/3  eq: +0.515 (0.008)  
 
9.  XG Roller++  11/9 7/6 5/4  eq: +0.514 (0.008)  
 
10.  XG Roller++  11/9 5/3  eq: +0.514 (0.008)  
 
11.  XG Roller++  11/10 6/3  eq: +0.510 (0.012)  
 
12.  XG Roller++  11/9 3/1  eq: +0.510 (0.012)  
 
13.  XG Roller++  11/10 7/6 5/3  eq: +0.506 (0.017)  
 
14.  XG Roller++  6/3 5/4  eq: +0.505 (0.017)  
 
15.  XG Roller++  7/4 5/4  eq: +0.505 (0.017)  
 
16.  XG Roller++  7/4 6/5  eq: +0.500 (0.022)  
 
17.  XG Roller++  11/10 5/2  eq: +0.498 (0.025)  
 
18.  XG Roller++  7/4 2/1  eq: +0.496 (0.026)  
 
19.  XG Roller++  11/10 6/4 5/4  eq: +0.495 (0.027)  
 
20.  XG Roller++  11/9 5/4 2/1  eq: +0.495 (0.028)  
 
21.  XG Roller++  11/10 6/4 2/1  eq: +0.494 (0.028)  
 
22.  XG Roller++  6/2  eq: +0.493 (0.029)  
 
23.  XG Roller++  5/1  eq: +0.489 (0.033)  
 
24.  XG Roller++  11/9 7/6 2/1  eq: +0.489 (0.033)  
 
25.  XG Roller++  11/10 7/5 2/1  eq: +0.487 (0.035)  
 
26.  XG Roller++  7/6 5/2  eq: +0.482 (0.040)  
 
27.  XG Roller++  11/10 5/3 2/1  eq: +0.481 (0.041)  
 
28.  XG Roller++  11/10 7/6 5/4 2/1  eq: +0.480 (0.042)  
 
29.  XG Roller++  11/10 5/4 3/1  eq: +0.469 (0.054)  
 
30.  XG Roller++  7/6 5/3 2/1  eq: +0.465 (0.058)  
 
31.  XG Roller++  6/3 2/1  eq: +0.454 (0.068)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 11/8 2/1.
Many plays are possible but since the usual outcome is that the USBGF Members dance, and then I have to close my board. I think this gives me the best looking distribution. If 22 is rolled, then I am set up nicely to squeeze my opponents off that anchor. However, I think plays with 3/1 go a bit too far.
USBGF Members: 55 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 66  
11 point match  
pip: 51 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AaaccbbabB:1:1:1:53:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 53 
1.  Rollout^{1}  8/5 7/2  eq: +0.498  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  8/3 7/4  eq: +0.497 (0.002)  
 
3.  Rollout^{2}  7/2 6/3  eq: +0.490 (0.008)  
 
4.  Rollout^{2}  8/3 5/2  eq: +0.487 (0.011)  
 
^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 7/2.
Now I have to close out it seems and I have fine distribution for my bearoff.
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 58  
11 point match  
pip: 51 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AcdbbbbB:1:1:1:41:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 41 
1.  Rollout^{1}  5/Off  eq: +0.535  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  6/2 5/4  eq: +0.460 (0.074)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 5/0.
I won’t consider leaving a blot on my ace pt with this fine roll for bearing off.
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 53  
11 point match  
pip: 51 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AccbbbbB:1:1:1:33:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 33 
1.  Rollout^{1}  6/Off(2)  eq: +0.485  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  6/Off 3/Off(2)  eq: +0.482 (0.003)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 6/0 3/0(2).
This play is so ugly that I considered leaving a 6 shot with the smooth 6/0(2). However, if hit, I might not roll an ace. However, I still can come around and win while my opponents dance. But that can be true if I am forced to later blot as well.
USBGF Members: 54 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 41  
11 point match  
pip: 51 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AbcbbbB:1:1:1:53:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 53 
1.  Rollout^{1}  5/2 5/Off  eq: +0.382  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  5/Off 4/1  eq: +0.362 (0.020)  
 
3.  Rollout^{1}  6/3 6/1  eq: +0.317 (0.065)  
 
4.  Rollout^{1}  6/1 5/2  eq: +0.310 (0.072)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 5/2 5/0.
Once again, my dice are making a mess of a bearoff when my opponents were closed out!
USBGF Members: 65 b/20*
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 53  
11 point match  
pip: 46 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=aAbAbcbA:1:1:1:11:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 11 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 24/23 6/5*(2)  eq: +0.651  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 6/5*(2) 2/1  eq: +0.624 (0.027)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 11 b/24*/23 6/5*(2).
This super joker makes me a big favorite once again.
USBGF Members: 43 b/22
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 49  
11 point match  
pip: 72 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=abbAcbB:1:1:1:51:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 51 
1.  Rollout^{1}  23/17  eq: +0.617  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  23/18 2/1  eq: +0.591 (0.026)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 23/17.
Closer to home and retaining that spare ace in my board incase I need it later.
USBGF Members: 44 no play
Neil Kazaross: 53 17/9
USBGF Members: 11 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 35  
11 point match  
pip: 72 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=abbAcbB:1:1:1:31:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 31 
1.  Rollout^{1}  9/5  eq: +0.781  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  5/4 5/2  eq: +0.770 (0.011)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 9/5.
This is a difficult choice, as I can clear the 5 point and leave only 2 shots, but their 66 will often cost me the game. Also, if I clear, I am not guaranteed to be able to play safely later anyhow. 9/5 assures that I will bear more checkers off prior to being hit and I just might be able to roll well enough to avoid being hit.
USBGF Members: 11 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 31  
11 point match  
pip: 72 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=cbAcbB:1:1:1:53:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 53 
1.  Rollout^{1}  5/2 5/Off  eq: +0.686  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  5/Off 4/1  eq: +0.659 (0.027)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 5/2 5/0.
This should be a bit easier to clean up if missed.
USBGF Members: 32 b/22
is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 23  
11 point match  
pip: 69 score: 9 is USBGF Members  
XGID=abBdbA:1:1:1:53:9:9:0:11:10  
to play 53 
1.  Rollout^{1}  5/Off 4/1  eq: +0.663  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  5/2 4/Off  eq: +0.660 (0.003)  
 
^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60486438 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 53 5/0 4/1.
This bearoff shows how bad a gap on the 3 point can be. I am regretting my earlier 33 play, which was safe only temporarily it seems. Fortunately I will remain a favorite even if hit.
USBGF Members: 33 b/13
Neil Kazaross: 63 4/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 53
Neil Kazaross wins 2 points, and the match.