USBGF OLM 2014-03-16 End of Match #2

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 90
             
11 point match
              pip: 37
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aEDaC-------a-----a-bdbc-:1:1:1:11:10:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout15/4* 4/3 2/1*(2)eq: +0.974
Player:
Opponent:
98.71% (G:58.04% B:0.73%)
1.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.974...+0.975) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
2.Rollout12/1*(3) 1/Offeq: +0.958 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
97.89% (G:47.57% B:0.44%)
2.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.958...+0.958) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout13/1* 2/1(2)eq: +0.953 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
97.66% (G:41.06% B:0.22%)
2.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.953...+0.953) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73409848
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 5/4*/3 2/1*(2)
[ 4] 2/1*(2) 2/0


Marty Storer recommends: 5/4*/3 2/1*(2)
Another fantastic roll.

White doesn’t want Black lurking on the 1 point, so 2/1*(2) is a must. Then 5/4*/3 does several good things.

First, it puts Black on the bar and stops him from making his 6 point soon. If Black hits soon, he will likely not be able to make his 6 point at once, and may still have a second checker to bring in from the bar. So White will have a greater chance to get in and around, possibly hitting along the way.

Second, it pretty well assures that Black will get at most an 11-number shot. White’s blot numbers are aces, played 5/4 or 5/4*. Those leave only direct 4s (sometimes direct 5s, as after Black 42: bar/21; White 41: 5/4*/off) with no extras.

Finally, it prepares to clear the highest point. With three checkers on the 5 point, White has double jeopardy: six blot numbers at once, and six more after coming down to two checkers on the 5 point. Stripping the 5 point avoids that problem.



Neil Kazaross: 61 b/19
USBGF Members: 42 5/3 5/1
Neil Kazaross: 62 b/17
USBGF Members: 31 3/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 54 19/15 17/12
USBGF Members: 52 3/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 62 15/13 12/6
USBGF Members: 41 3/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 64 13/9 12/6
USBGF Members: 41 3/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross resigns.


USBGF Members win the match

Final PR: Neil Kazaross 0.39, USBGF Members 2.14

USBGF OLM 2014-03-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 115
             
11 point match
              pip: 60
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=abBEBCC-----a--------bebb-:1:1:1:44:10:7:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout16/2(2) 4/Off(2)eq: +0.730
Player:
Opponent:
86.49% (G:41.13% B:8.51%)
13.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.729...+0.731) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout16/2(3) 4/Offeq: +0.708 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
85.40% (G:37.44% B:7.75%)
14.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.707...+0.709) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83589642
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 6/2(2) 4/0(2)
[ 6] 6/2(3) 4/0


Marty Storer recommends: 6/2(2) 4/0(2)

White can leave the minimum 15 shots with 6/2(3) 4/off (Play A), or can take off an extra checker, 6/2(2) 4/off(2) (Play B), for a shot count of 17.

The extra man alone is probably enough to make Play B correct. Black’s board is weakened and in the long run he’ll have a very hard time containing a hit checker.

Also notice that Play B leads to a safer position if Black misses. The only repeaters are 55 and 52, as against 65 (horrors), 63, 53, and 33 after Play A. This difference makes the choice clear for me. I recommend 6/2(2) 4/off(2).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 115
             
11 point match
              pip: 44
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=abDE-CA-----a--------bebb-:1:1:-1:61:10:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/19* 13/12eq: -0.579
Player:
Opponent:
21.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
78.94% (G:22.63% B:2.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.580...-0.578) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/19* 3/2eq: -0.585 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
20.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.25% (G:22.19% B:1.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.586...-0.584) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/19* 19/18eq: -0.588 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
20.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.38% (G:22.32% B:2.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.589...-0.587) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 51 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/19* 13/12.

I’m back in the game with a hit, and then I think 13/12 is best aiming at my 6 point and allowing 66 from me to close it and give me real winning chances. Note how important it is that I was able to retain a 4 point board.



USBGF Members: 42 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 108
             
11 point match
              pip: 63
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bDE-Ca------a-------bebbA:1:1:-1:32:10:7:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/21 19/17eq: -0.512
Player:
Opponent:
24.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
75.61% (G:18.59% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.513...-0.511) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 3/1eq: -0.517 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
24.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
75.83% (G:19.09% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.518...-0.516) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout124/19eq: -0.525 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
23.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
76.24% (G:17.98% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.526...-0.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 45 seconds
4.Rollout119/14eq: -0.534 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
23.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
76.71% (G:18.11% B:1.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.535...-0.533) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 19/17.

This is all about containment and controlling the outerboards now, so I play 24/21 19/17. I can play with little concern about having all these blots since I cannot lose a gammon at this score and I doubt that White will be able to gain winning chances if they can enter and hit me loose with only a 3 point board.



USBGF Members: 55 b/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 43
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aDEaD--a----a-------bebb-:1:1:-1:52:10:7:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout117/10eq: -0.892
Player:
Opponent:
5.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.60% (G:41.76% B:2.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.893...-0.892) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout117/12 3/1eq: -0.894 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
5.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.72% (G:44.77% B:3.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.895...-0.894) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 17 seconds
3.Rollout112/5eq: -0.897 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
5.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.85% (G:43.81% B:2.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.898...-0.897) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 28 seconds
4.Rollout121/16 3/1eq: -0.901 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
4.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.04% (G:41.98% B:2.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.901...-0.900) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout121/14eq: -0.901 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
4.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.05% (G:38.52% B:2.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.901...-0.900) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 29 seconds
6.Rollout121/19 17/12eq: -0.901 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
4.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.06% (G:38.53% B:2.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.902...-0.901) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 58 seconds
7.Rollout121/16 17/15eq: -0.901 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
4.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.06% (G:38.74% B:2.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.902...-0.901) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds
8.Rollout121/16 12/10eq: -0.902 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
4.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.10% (G:38.84% B:2.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.902...-0.901) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 44 seconds
9.Rollout117/15 12/7eq: -0.902 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
4.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.11% (G:42.47% B:2.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.903...-0.902) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 19 seconds
10.Rollout112/7 3/1eq: -0.903 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
4.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.14% (G:45.91% B:3.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.903...-0.902) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 45 seconds
11.Rollout121/19 12/7eq: -0.911 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
4.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.55% (G:39.61% B:2.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.912...-0.911) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 17/10.

My back checkers can stay where they are to maximize my chances to get a shot. I think 17/10 adding a builder for my board is best although my chances are very bad once again.



USBGF Members: 61 5/0 3/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 96
             
11 point match
              pip: 37
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aEDaC-------a-a-----bebb-:1:1:-1:42:10:7:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout110/6 3/1eq: -0.847
Player:
Opponent:
7.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.35% (G:40.05% B:3.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.848...-0.847) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout112/6eq: -0.853 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
7.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.63% (G:36.97% B:3.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.853...-0.852) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout121/19 10/6eq: -0.859 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
7.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.96% (G:34.40% B:3.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.860...-0.859) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout112/8 3/1eq: -0.860 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
6.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.02% (G:41.48% B:3.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.861...-0.860) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout121/15eq: -0.864 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
6.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.21% (G:34.69% B:3.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.865...-0.864) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 24 seconds
6.Rollout121/17 12/10eq: -0.864 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
6.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.22% (G:34.43% B:3.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.865...-0.864) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 21 seconds
7.Rollout121/17 3/1eq: -0.865 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
6.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.26% (G:38.47% B:3.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 02 seconds
8.Rollout112/8 10/8eq: -0.870 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
6.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.48% (G:37.68% B:3.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.870...-0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 01 second
9.Rollout121/17 10/8eq: -0.870 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
6.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.52% (G:34.93% B:3.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.871...-0.870) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 09 seconds
10.Rollout121/19 12/8eq: -0.871 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
6.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.55% (G:35.86% B:3.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.871...-0.870) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 3/1.

I need my 6 point, so I slot it with 10/6. Since I have more ways to cover with a 6 than a 4, I use one of my spares to play 3/1.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 90
             
11 point match
              pip: 37
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aEDaC-------a-----a-bdbc-:1:1:1:11:10:7:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-03-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 84
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bcBBCCCB------------bdbb-:1:1:1:52:10:7:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout18/3 6/4eq: +0.837
Player:
Opponent:
91.94% (G:48.10% B:13.83%)
8.06% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.836...+0.838) - [97.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 7/5eq: +0.835 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
91.87% (G:48.34% B:14.69%)
8.13% (G:0.11% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.834...+0.836) - [2.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
3.playedRollout18/6 8/3eq: +0.830 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
91.55% (G:47.86% B:13.96%)
8.45% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.829...+0.831) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
4.Rollout18/3 5/3eq: +0.823 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
91.26% (G:46.40% B:12.79%)
8.74% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.822...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 8/3 8/6
[ 2] 8/3 7/5
[ 2] 8/3 6/4


Marty Storer recommends: 8/3 6/4

White’s plan is to help Black crash and then win from there. Timing is key. With that in mind, how should White proceed? The obvious play is the blotless 8/3 8/6, which kills White’s 5s. The alternative is to leave a blot on the 8 point, which will greatly help White’s timing if Black exits with a 6.

If White decides to leave the blot, then 6/4 has to be the best deuce. The spare on the 7 point helps keep White’s prime for a turn in case Black misses. An extra roll of blockage can be critical, so 8/3 7/5 has to be worse than 8/3 6/4. Besides, as noted in the analysis of a prior move, the 4 point is a good destination for spares when defending against a 1-2 backgame.

I recommend 8/3 6/4. 8/3 8/6 works better if Black doesn’t roll an immediate 6, but compare the potential gains and losses. Gammons don’t matter for White. 8/3 6/4 gives White a chance to gain on a huge timing swing, while 8/3 8/6 promises a smaller benefit in timing, and in fewer variations. Finally, White shouldn’t fear Black’s super miracle of a hit followed by The Great Escape; timing is a much more important consideration.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 77
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bcCBCDC-------------bdbb-:1:1:-1:62:10:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.Rollout123/17 3/1eq: -0.797
Player:
Opponent:
10.02% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
89.98% (G:43.25% B:11.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.799...-0.796) - [72.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
2.playedRollout123/15eq: -0.798 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
10.00% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
90.00% (G:43.19% B:11.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.799...-0.797) - [27.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/15.

I’d prefer to keep as much home board flexibility as possible. This play means that I only have to play 2 fives if I roll 55 rather than killing a checker. I also only have 3 fours to play if I toss 44, although then I must kill a checker.



USBGF Members: 54 7/3
Neil Kazaross: 33 15/3
USBGF Members: 42 7/5 7/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is USBGF Members

score: 10
pip: 67
             
11 point match
              pip: 123
score: 7

is Neil Kazaross
XGID=-bbEBDD--------------bebb-:1:1:-1:64:10:7:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout123/13eq: -0.843
Player:
Opponent:
7.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.14% (G:42.34% B:9.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.844...-0.842) - [100.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout124/14eq: -0.880 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
6.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.00% (G:47.04% B:5.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.881...-0.879) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/13.

I think I win more games if I keep the rearmost point, so I run 23/13.



USBGF Members: 43 6/2* 5/2
Neil Kazaross: 65 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 115
             
11 point match
              pip: 60
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=abBEBCC-----a--------bebb-:1:1:1:44:10:7:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-03-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bcBBBBBB--AA-A------ceaa-:1:1:1:43:10:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout114/7eq: +0.855
Player:
Opponent:
92.80% (G:50.54% B:14.75%)
7.20% (G:0.06% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.854...+0.856) - [47.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.xgRollout114/10 11/8eq: +0.855 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
92.80% (G:50.71% B:14.86%)
7.20% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.854...+0.856) - [43.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
3.Rollout112/5eq: +0.854 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
92.76% (G:50.62% B:15.35%)
7.24% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.853...+0.855) - [7.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
4.Rollout112/9 11/7eq: +0.853 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
92.73% (G:50.31% B:15.30%)
7.27% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.852...+0.855) - [0.9%]
Duration: 55 minutes 58 seconds
5.Rollout114/10 12/9eq: +0.853 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
92.73% (G:50.58% B:15.24%)
7.27% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.852...+0.855) - [0.8%]
Duration: 45 minutes 02 seconds
6.Rollout114/11 12/8eq: +0.853 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
92.72% (G:50.65% B:14.85%)
7.28% (G:0.06% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.852...+0.854) - [0.4%]
Duration: 57 minutes 52 seconds
7.Rollout112/8 11/8eq: +0.853 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
92.70% (G:50.61% B:14.96%)
7.30% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.852...+0.854) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
8.Rollout111/4eq: +0.851 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
92.60% (G:50.58% B:15.32%)
7.40% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.849...+0.852) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 54 seconds
9.Rollout114/11 8/4eq: +0.848 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
92.49% (G:48.92% B:15.03%)
7.51% (G:0.11% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.846...+0.849) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
10.Rollout18/5 8/4eq: +0.844 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
92.33% (G:47.58% B:14.39%)
7.67% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.843...+0.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
11.Rollout111/7 8/5eq: +0.844 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
92.39% (G:48.88% B:15.20%)
7.61% (G:0.18% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.843...+0.845) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
12.Rollout114/10 8/5eq: +0.842 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
92.30% (G:49.52% B:15.67%)
7.70% (G:0.21% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.840...+0.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
13.Rollout112/9 8/4eq: +0.840 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
92.24% (G:49.54% B:15.69%)
7.76% (G:0.23% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.839...+0.841) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99332914
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[7] 14/7
[5] 12/5
[3] 14/10 11/8
[2] 11/4
[2] 12/8 11/8
[2] 14/10 12/9


Marty Storer recommends: 14/10 11/8

White can kill two 6s with 12/8 11/8. I like the idea of moving at least one checker to the 8 point, but I prefer more flexibility, so I’ll recommend 14/10 11/8.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is USBGF Members

score: 10
pip: 96
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 7

is Neil Kazaross
XGID=-bcBBBBCB--AA--------ceaa-:1:1:-1:31:10:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout14/1 3/2eq: -0.876
Player:
Opponent:
6.16% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
93.84% (G:51.23% B:15.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.877...-0.875) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout14/1 2/1eq: -0.885 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
5.70% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
94.30% (G:52.44% B:15.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.886...-0.884) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.Rollout14/3 4/1eq: -0.893 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
5.33% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
94.67% (G:52.42% B:16.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.894...-0.892) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
4.Rollout124/23 4/1eq: -0.911 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
4.40% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
95.60% (G:67.89% B:15.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.912...-0.911) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99332914
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 4/1 3/2.

I was hoping to not roll a 3 as now my last spare is gone with the forced 4/1. For my ace, it is best to make my 2 point and just to hope I can luck out and maintain a 4 point board and hit something. Most likely I will be forced to break my 4 point but I see no reason to do so now.



USBGF Members: 66 12/6 11/5
Neil Kazaross: 54 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 84
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bcBBCCCB------------bdbb-:1:1:1:52:10:7:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-03-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cbBBBBBB---A--A-A--acdaa-:1:1:1:43:10:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout117/14 15/11eq: +0.866
Player:
Opponent:
93.36% (G:51.30% B:15.95%)
6.64% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.865...+0.867) - [74.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
2.Rollout117/13 15/12eq: +0.866 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
93.34% (G:51.35% B:15.91%)
6.66% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.865...+0.867) - [23.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
3.Rollout115/8eq: +0.865 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
93.29% (G:51.40% B:15.78%)
6.71% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.864...+0.866) - [2.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
4.Rollout117/10eq: +0.864 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
93.28% (G:51.15% B:15.92%)
6.72% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.863...+0.865) - [0.5%]
Duration: 57 minutes 02 seconds
5.Rollout115/11 12/9eq: +0.864 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
93.26% (G:51.45% B:15.98%)
6.74% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.863...+0.865) - [0.1%]
Duration: 58 minutes 27 seconds
6.Rollout117/14 12/8eq: +0.864 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
93.24% (G:51.46% B:15.85%)
6.76% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.863...+0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
7.Rollout112/5eq: +0.863 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
93.23% (G:51.44% B:16.24%)
6.77% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.862...+0.864) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 45 seconds
8.xgRollout117/13 12/9eq: +0.863 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
93.21% (G:51.38% B:15.80%)
6.79% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.862...+0.864) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 01 second
9.Rollout115/12 8/4eq: +0.854 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
92.79% (G:52.43% B:19.09%)
7.21% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.852...+0.855) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
10.Rollout18/5 8/4eq: +0.852 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
92.68% (G:52.32% B:19.12%)
7.32% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.851...+0.853) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
11.Rollout117/13 8/5eq: +0.851 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
92.76% (G:52.23% B:18.37%)
7.24% (G:0.19% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.850...+0.853) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
12.Rollout112/9 8/4eq: +0.850 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
92.66% (G:52.88% B:19.01%)
7.34% (G:0.16% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.848...+0.851) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
13.Rollout115/11 8/5eq: +0.850 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
92.66% (G:52.76% B:19.31%)
7.34% (G:0.17% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.848...+0.851) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
14.Rollout117/14 8/4eq: +0.849 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
92.68% (G:52.59% B:18.73%)
7.32% (G:0.22% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.848...+0.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76307536
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[7] 17/14 15/11
[3] 12/5
[3] 15/8
[2] 17/13 12/9
[2] 17/14 12/8
[2] 17/10
[1] 17/13 15/12
[1] 17/13 8/5
[1] 8/5 8/4


Marty Storer recommends: 17/14 15/11

I like 17/14 15/11. White’s plan is to distribute spare checkers well and hope Black continues to crash, and spares on the 11, 12, and 14 points are well placed for future distribution.

The 4 point is a good destination for spares against a 1-2 backgame, but after 11/4 White must play four 6s in the event of boxcars; that’s bad because White wants delay. After the recommended move only three boxcars can be played. That said, other reasonable moves (15/8, for example, killing a 6 for good) will hardly be any different in equity.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is USBGF Members

score: 10
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 7

is Neil Kazaross
XGID=-cbBBBBBB--AA-A-----acdaa-:1:1:-1:21:10:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/23 5/3eq: -0.852
Player:
Opponent:
7.34% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
92.66% (G:50.31% B:14.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.853...-0.851) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.Rollout15/2eq: -0.859 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
6.98% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
93.02% (G:50.87% B:15.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.860...-0.858) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
3.Rollout15/4 3/1eq: -0.860 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
6.91% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
93.09% (G:51.41% B:15.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.861...-0.859) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
4.Rollout124/23 3/1eq: -0.864 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
6.73% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
93.27% (G:50.78% B:15.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.865...-0.863) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
5.Rollout124/23 4/2eq: -0.867 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
6.60% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
93.40% (G:50.48% B:15.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.868...-0.866) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
6.Rollout13/2 3/1eq: -0.874 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
6.24% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
93.76% (G:52.12% B:16.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.875...-0.873) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99332914
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 5/3.

This roll is acceptable and allows me put my spare back checker where I want it on the 23 point and to kill 4’s with 5/3. I can worry about closing my lower homeboard points later, and if something crazy happens and I end up hitting and getting hit on my ace or deuce point I won’t mind recirculating. But, anyhow, the most likely occurrence for the shambles that is my homeboard is to end up making my lower points and hopefully I roll enough killed large numbers to retain 4 points.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bcBBBBBB--AA-A------ceaa-:1:1:1:43:10:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-03-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 115
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=abbBBBBBB-----A--AA-d-daa-:1:1:1:32:10:7:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout117/12eq: +0.857
Player:
Opponent:
92.92% (G:51.33% B:15.90%)
7.08% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.856...+0.858) - [28.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
2.Rollout118/13eq: +0.857 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
92.93% (G:51.52% B:16.26%)
7.07% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.856...+0.858) - [24.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
3.playedRollout118/15 14/12eq: +0.857 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
92.91% (G:51.36% B:15.76%)
7.09% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.856...+0.858) - [15.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
4.Rollout118/16 17/14eq: +0.857 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
92.91% (G:51.62% B:15.79%)
7.09% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.856...+0.858) - [12.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
5.Rollout114/9eq: +0.857 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
92.90% (G:51.79% B:15.95%)
7.10% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.856...+0.858) - [10.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
6.Rollout118/16 14/11eq: +0.857 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
92.90% (G:51.44% B:16.03%)
7.10% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.856...+0.858) - [6.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
7.Rollout117/15 14/11eq: +0.856 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
92.87% (G:51.50% B:16.10%)
7.13% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.855...+0.857) - [1.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
8.Rollout118/15 17/15eq: +0.855 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
92.84% (G:51.48% B:16.09%)
7.16% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.854...+0.857) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76307536
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[5] 18/15 14/12 (coin flip!)
[5] 18/13
[4] 17/12
[2] 18/16 14/11
[2] 17/15 14/11


Marty Storer recommends: 18/15 14/12

I’ll recommend 18/15 14/12, trying to follow my own bearin rules.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=abbBBBBBB---A--A-A--d-daa-:1:1:-1:11:10:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.xgRollout1Bar/23 5/4(2)eq: -0.861
Player:
Opponent:
6.90% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
93.10% (G:50.92% B:15.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.862...-0.860) - [57.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/24 5/4(3)eq: -0.861 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
6.89% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
93.11% (G:51.87% B:16.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.862...-0.860) - [42.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24 5/4(2) 3/2eq: -0.870 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
6.45% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
93.55% (G:52.04% B:16.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.871...-0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 5/4 3/2eq: -0.872 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
6.35% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
93.65% (G:51.42% B:15.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.873...-0.871) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/23 5/4 2/1eq: -0.878 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
6.07% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
93.93% (G:52.43% B:15.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.879...-0.877) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
6.Rollout1Bar/24 5/4(2) 2/1eq: -0.878 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
6.05% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
93.95% (G:53.58% B:16.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.879...-0.877) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
7.Rollout1Bar/23 3/1eq: -0.883 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
5.82% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
94.18% (G:52.27% B:15.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.884...-0.882) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
8.Rollout1Bar/23 5/3eq: -0.883 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
5.80% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
94.20% (G:51.97% B:15.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.884...-0.882) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
9.Rollout1Bar/23 3/2(2)eq: -0.885 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
5.73% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
94.27% (G:51.94% B:15.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.886...-0.884) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
10.Rollout1Bar/24 5/4 3/1eq: -0.885 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
5.69% (G:0.04% B:0.01%)
94.31% (G:53.52% B:16.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.886...-0.884) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83589642
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 5/4(3).

This is very difficult to decide how to best salvage some meager chances and I’ve looked at many plays several times.

I think the plan is to try to kill numbers as best as possible and to make my 4 point in hopes that I can luck out and retain a 4 point board for long enough. With that in mind my play at this score is the weird looking bar/24 5/4(3).

The idea here is to kill 4’s next and hope to delay my crash. The fact that I don’t step up to the 23 point and allow White to break the 8 to squeeze me out with 6’s doesn’t matter much at this score where I don’t care if I lose a gammon or backgammon.

At a normal score I think I’d find another play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cbBBBBBB---A--A-A--acdaa-:1:1:1:43:10:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-03-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=abbBBBBBB--------B-Ad-daa-:1:1:1:31:10:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout117/13eq: +0.871
Player:
Opponent:
93.57% (G:51.65% B:15.60%)
6.43% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.869...+0.872) - [36.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
2.Rollout117/16 17/14eq: +0.870 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
93.56% (G:51.89% B:15.80%)
6.44% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.869...+0.871) - [22.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
3.Rollout119/15eq: +0.870 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
93.56% (G:51.82% B:15.63%)
6.44% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.869...+0.871) - [17.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
4.playedRollout119/18 17/14eq: +0.870 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
93.55% (G:51.62% B:15.57%)
6.45% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.869...+0.871) - [16.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
5.Rollout119/16 17/16eq: +0.870 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
93.54% (G:51.45% B:15.67%)
6.46% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.869...+0.871) - [6.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76307536
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 19/18 17/14
[6] 17/13
[2] 17/16 17/14
[1] 19/15


Marty Storer recommends: 19/18 17/14

This decision doesn’t matter much. In positions like this it’s usually a good idea to diversify, so I’ll recommend 19/18 17/14. Crossing a quadrant (19/18) may help get to a position where all of White’s spares are on top of the prime somewhere, so that 6s are killed and breakage is delayed.

Of course there are only very small viglets of equity at stake here. In general it’s necessary to diversify, to watch for awkward plays of high numbers, and to try not to put two of the spares six points apart–thus I reject 17/13. (Sometimes five apart is bad too, so I wouldn’t play 17/16 17/14, though that can’t be too much different from other moves.) Sometimes it’s necessary to check how big-and-small numbers play (61, 51, and the like). But there’s still plenty of room to maneuver. After 19/18 17/14, nothing plays badly. At this early stage of the bearin, diversification is key.



Neil Kazaross: no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 115
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=abbBBBBBB-----A--AA-d-daa-:1:1:1:32:10:7:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 133
             
11 point match
              pip: 135
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbBBBBBB----------AdadaaB:1:1:1:44:10:7:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21*(2) 21/17(2)eq: +0.879
Player:
Opponent:
93.99% (G:52.53% B:15.56%)
6.01% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.878...+0.880) - [79.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21*(2) 19/11eq: +0.878 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
93.96% (G:52.57% B:16.07%)
6.04% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.877...+0.879) - [20.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21*(2) 21/13eq: +0.875 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
93.79% (G:52.51% B:16.14%)
6.21% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.874...+0.876) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/21*(2) 21/17 19/15eq: +0.874 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
93.75% (G:52.47% B:16.26%)
6.25% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.873...+0.875) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] b/21*/17(2)
[ 4] b/21*(2) 21/17 19/15
[ 2] b/21*(2) 21/13
[ 1] b/21*(2) 19/11


Marty Storer recommends: b/21* 19/11

The nightmare double 1 appeared, but luckily White has not rolled a 2 or 1 to recirculate one of Black’s deeply placed checkers. A 1 would have been especially unwelcome.

For the last two 4s, White can avoid contact by playing two checkers to the 17 point. But the 21 anchor stops Black from playing 5/4, and this is a concrete if very small benefit. I think White can afford to keep the anchor for at least a turn. I recommend 19/11. A checker on the 11 point gives lots of options to distribute well. Finally, note that after 19/11 Black’s one-prime isn’t much of a problem. White can play two successive double aces without breaking the 8 point.



Neil Kazaross: no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=abbBBBBBB--------B-Ad-daa-:1:1:1:31:10:7:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=abaBBBBBA--A--------eAeBa-:1:1:1:43:10:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout121/17 11/8eq: +0.904
Player:
Opponent:
95.24% (G:48.89% B:13.94%)
4.76% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.903...+0.905) - [93.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
2.playedRollout123/19 11/8eq: +0.903 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
95.18% (G:49.53% B:14.35%)
4.82% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.902...+0.904) - [6.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
3.Rollout121/14eq: +0.898 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
94.98% (G:48.66% B:14.04%)
5.02% (G:0.09% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.897...+0.899) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 23/19 11/8
[ 3] 21/17 11/8
[ 1] 21/14
[ 1] 11/4


Marty Storer recommends: 23/19 11/8

White may as well make the full prime, 11/8. If Black comes in soon, he may start to bury checkers.

For the 4, I slightly prefer 23/19. One reason is to avoid the possibility of crunching with two successive double 3s after Black makes his 23 point. There’s a small problem with 23/19 on Black’s double 1 (how does he play it?), but like the double 3s variation, that’s hardly anything to worry about.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is USBGF Members

score: 10
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 7

is Neil Kazaross
XGID=abaBBBBBB----------AeAeAa-:1:1:-1:11:10:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 5/4* 3/2*eq: -0.853
Player:
Opponent:
7.30% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
92.70% (G:54.01% B:18.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.854...-0.851) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 5/4*(2) 3/2*eq: -0.871 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
6.40% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
93.60% (G:56.85% B:20.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.872...-0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 5/4*(2)eq: -0.894 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
5.27% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
94.73% (G:49.06% B:13.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.895...-0.892) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 5/4* 3/2*.

Perhaps I can salvage some play from here if I enter and step up to make the 23 point and then hit both blots loose. I hope my opponents are forced to hit two checkers and that I can then dance for a very long time.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 133
             
11 point match
              pip: 135
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bbBBBBBB----------AdadaaB:1:1:1:44:10:7:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-aBCBaC--B--------eAeBa-:1:1:1:41:10:7:0:11:10
to play 41
1.playedRollout111/7* 8/7eq: +0.837
Player:
Opponent:
92.31% (G:38.15% B:8.17%)
7.69% (G:0.42% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.836...+0.839) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes
2.Rollout18/7* 7/3*eq: +0.781 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
90.38% (G:45.26% B:12.90%)
9.62% (G:1.28% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.779...+0.783) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26342439
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 11/7* 8/7
[ 7] 8/7*/3*


Marty Storer recommends: 11/7* 8/7

This fantastic roll makes the bar point on Black’s head, for a five-point prime. Black will have a very hard time winning from here.



Neil Kazaross: 52 b/23
USBGF Members: 52 8/3* 5/3
Neil Kazaross: 54 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=abaBBBBBA--A--------eAeBa-:1:1:1:43:10:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 115
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-aBBB-D--B--------eaeCa-:1:1:1:32:10:7:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout123/21* 21/18eq: +0.721
Player:
Opponent:
87.69% (G:34.18% B:6.13%)
12.31% (G:1.54% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.720...+0.723) - [99.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 41 minutes
2.playedRollout123/21* 8/5eq: +0.718 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
87.66% (G:36.32% B:7.11%)
12.34% (G:1.66% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.716...+0.720) - [0.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 29 minutes
3.Rollout123/21* 11/8eq: +0.671 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
85.84% (G:33.96% B:6.47%)
14.16% (G:2.18% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.669...+0.673) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 27 minutes
4.Rollout18/3*eq: +0.669 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
86.54% (G:33.75% B:6.65%)
13.46% (G:2.94% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.667...+0.671) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26342439
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 23/21* 8/5
[ 3] 8/3*
[ 2] 23/21*/18


Marty Storer recommends: 23/21*/18

White hits with the 2, 23/21*, sending back a fourth checker and preventing Black from making his 4 point with a 1. Then the choice is between adding a builder for the inner board, 8/5, or coming to the 18 point. The alternatives are probably close, but I’d rather move to the 18 point, leaving an extra checker on the 8 point aiming at the key 7 point. It’s more critical to control the outfield and try for the 7 point than it is to attack inside the board. 21/18 controls more outfield territory and also avoids being hit wit double 1. Black has aces to play other than 5/4*, so none of his rolls force him to hit loose and leave a double direct return.



Neil Kazaross: 52 b/18


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-aBCBaC--B--------eAeBa-:1:1:1:41:10:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-23

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 157
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-D--B-------bebcBaA:1:1:1:11:10:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout1Bar/24* 24/23 6/5(2)eq: +0.308
Player:
Opponent:
72.56% (G:21.15% B:3.03%)
27.44% (G:6.82% B:1.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.306...+0.310) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24* 24/23 8/7(2)eq: +0.149 (-0.160)
Player:
Opponent:
66.99% (G:17.50% B:2.27%)
33.01% (G:9.11% B:2.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.147...+0.151) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24* 11/10 6/5(2)eq: +0.111 (-0.197)
Player:
Opponent:
68.07% (G:21.79% B:3.74%)
31.93% (G:11.94% B:4.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.109...+0.113) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/24* 8/7 6/5(2)eq: +0.086 (-0.223)
Player:
Opponent:
68.32% (G:21.03% B:3.35%)
31.68% (G:13.39% B:5.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.083...+0.088) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78967146
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/24*/23 6/5(2)
[ 2] b/24* 11/10 6/5(2)
[ 1] b/24* 8/7 6/5(2)


Marty Storer recommends: b/24*/23 6/5(2)

A beautiful roll. There’s no reason not to play the natural bar/24*/23 6/5(2). From the 23 point the spare back man has the most chance to hop out of Black’s board. More importantly, if White leaves a blot or two, Black may be able to pull off a lucky win by hitting, whether immediately or later.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 127
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab--BBB-D--B-------bebcC--:1:1:-1:33:10:7:0:11:10
to play 33

1.xgRollout1Bar/22 6/3 4/1(2)eq: -0.667
Player:
Opponent:
14.09% (G:2.45% B:0.55%)
85.91% (G:29.62% B:4.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.669...-0.665) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/22 6/3(2) 4/1eq: -0.682 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
13.58% (G:2.23% B:0.46%)
86.42% (G:31.76% B:5.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.683...-0.680) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78967146
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 6/3(2) 4/1.

Two rolls ago I thought that I had a good game but a bad 33 followed by a totally hideous one has shattered my world. Now I need a miracle to win this game. Since I have to blot anyhow, I play bar/22 6/3 4/1 and then look to compare which final 3 is best.

6/3 leaves 1 shot fewer than 4/1 but doesn’t make a point now. However, perhaps I can cover my 4 point with an ace — although that will be a mixed blessing if I have to break it with a bad 3. 6/3 also kills 5’s.

4/1 leaves 1 shot more than 6/3 but the blot is easier to clean up when missed and at least I have a 3 point board when hit if I return hit.

I’m still not sure, but I need a miracle from here and some of those miracles involve me remaking my 4 point so I’ll go with 6/3.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 115
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-aBBB-D--B--------eaeCa-:1:1:1:32:10:7:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 130
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BaD-C--B-B---b-cbcbB--:1:1:1:62:10:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/5*eq: -0.624
Player:
Opponent:
41.65% (G:11.41% B:1.59%)
58.35% (G:21.79% B:7.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.627...-0.622) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout111/9 11/5*eq: -0.696 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
39.73% (G:10.34% B:1.46%)
60.27% (G:23.39% B:8.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.699...-0.694) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
3.Rollout111/5* 6/4eq: -0.699 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
39.55% (G:10.44% B:1.48%)
60.45% (G:23.35% B:8.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.702...-0.696) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 03 minutes
4.Rollout111/5* 5/3eq: -0.706 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
38.45% (G:9.94% B:1.50%)
61.55% (G:22.62% B:7.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.708...-0.703) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 06 minutes
5.Rollout18/2 6/4eq: -0.728 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
34.49% (G:8.05% B:0.77%)
65.51% (G:19.89% B:5.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.730...-0.725) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78967146
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 13/5*
[ 2] 8/2 6/4


Marty Storer recommends: 13/5*

White must hit, 13/5*. Non-hitting moves leave at least one blot, for plenty of gammon danger, without helping White win. If Black misses a return shot at White’s 5 point (only 20 numbers hit), White can make that point and be extremely happy.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 135
             
11 point match
              pip: 142
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab--BAD-C--B-A---b-cbcbB--:1:1:-1:55:10:7:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout1Bar/20* 20/5eq: +0.917
Player:
Opponent:
66.79% (G:27.71% B:10.37%)
33.21% (G:4.89% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.915...+0.920) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20* 20/10 6/1eq: +0.876 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
65.28% (G:27.19% B:9.59%)
34.72% (G:7.66% B:1.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.874...+0.879) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78967146
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20*/5.

I hit and run around to my 5 point. I will hope that I can move one of my other back checkers next turn and/or attack on the ace point should White enter there.



USBGF Members: 51 b/24 13/8
Neil Kazaross: 33 8/5(2) 6/3 4/1*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 157
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-D--B-------bebcBaA:1:1:1:11:10:7:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 157
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-c--B-D-B--B-C---c-cbcaA-A:1:1:1:52:10:7:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.310
Player:
Opponent:
49.12% (G:14.30% B:2.14%)
50.88% (G:13.94% B:2.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.313...-0.308) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 11/6eq: -0.478 (-0.168)
Player:
Opponent:
42.65% (G:12.04% B:1.70%)
57.35% (G:15.79% B:2.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.481...-0.476) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 8/3eq: -0.587 (-0.277)
Player:
Opponent:
43.07% (G:12.50% B:2.14%)
56.93% (G:21.39% B:6.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.590...-0.585) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 50 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.754 (-0.444)
Player:
Opponent:
45.42% (G:12.56% B:2.27%)
54.58% (G:31.56% B:1.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.757...-0.751) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] b/23 13/8


Marty Storer recommends: b/23 13/8

Bar/23 13/8 is forced. White’s anchor stops Black’s blitz dead, and now Black has more checkers back with a bad formation of three on the 24 point. If White can make the 5 or bar point next turn, Black may be in trouble. Look for him to do all he can to counter White’s newly indicated blocking plan.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-c--B-D-C--B-B---c-cbcaB--:1:1:-1:54:10:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20 8/3eq: +0.340
Player:
Opponent:
51.85% (G:14.43% B:3.41%)
48.15% (G:13.66% B:2.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.337...+0.342) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout124/15eq: +0.294 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
50.07% (G:13.96% B:2.38%)
49.93% (G:15.91% B:2.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.292...+0.297) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 59 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78967146
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 8/3.

The blitz is over and now I have 12 checkers forward and need to move my rear checkers. But first I cover my 3 point and make a nice 4 point board which hopefully can lead to a gammon win if I am able to hit something soon. Of course then I advance with the 4 to the 20 point.

I won’t like the 10 rolls that point on me, but most other rolls except for 55 play rather poorly for White, often forcing them to try to attack me with some dire consequences if I return hit.

I could run out with the flexible 24/15, which duplicates aces, but the problem is that this also leaves 3’s to hit and doesn’t build my board.

24/20 8/3 seems clear to me.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 130
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--BaD-C--B-B---b-cbcbB--:1:1:1:62:10:7:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B--BaC--ac-cbc--AA:1:1:1:62:10:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 24/18eq: -1.013
Player:
Opponent:
38.42% (G:10.09% B:1.82%)
61.58% (G:37.25% B:2.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.016...-1.010) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/7eq: -1.045 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
36.09% (G:10.86% B:2.08%)
63.91% (G:36.56% B:4.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.048...-1.043) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 25 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] b/23 24/18
[ 4] b/23 13/7
[ 1] b/23 11/5


Marty Storer recommends: b/23 24/18

The obvious play is bar/23 24/18, minimizing blots. However, bar/23 13/7 deserves to be considered as well. That move seems to maximize White’s chance for an anchor, and thus perhaps for a saved gammon. The forward slot isn’t very promising by itself, as Black is ready to attack with all his resources.

I reject 13/7 for two reasons. First, 24/18 gives Black 6s, 2s, 1s, and 4s to hit (four numbers on the dice), while 13/7 gives him 6s, 4s, 2s, 5s, and 3s (five). The second reason is the third blot. Even if White anchors during Black’s upcoming attack, a third checker back will hurt White’s winning chances, and it will certainly increase Black’s chance to win the match with a gammon. In the short term, if Black hits and White hits back immediately, the 7-point checker may be quite a liability. So bar/23 24/18, though no bargain, looks best.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B--BaC--acAcbc-A--:1:1:-1:65:10:7:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/7* 7/2*eq: +1.190
Player:
Opponent:
65.07% (G:42.34% B:2.33%)
34.93% (G:9.04% B:1.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.187...+1.193) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
2.Rollout113/7* 9/4eq: +0.699 (-0.491)
Player:
Opponent:
55.86% (G:27.75% B:2.39%)
44.14% (G:10.40% B:1.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.697...+0.702) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 09 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7*/2*.

This nice roll allows me to continue the blitz by double hitting.



USBGF Members: 32 b/22 b/23*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 146
             
11 point match
              pip: 154
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab--B-D-B--B-C--ac-cbcAA--:1:1:-1:61:10:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 9/3*eq: +0.535
Player:
Opponent:
51.19% (G:24.36% B:2.39%)
48.81% (G:16.17% B:3.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.532...+0.538) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 51 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 8/2*eq: +0.399 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
47.06% (G:21.82% B:1.36%)
52.94% (G:18.03% B:4.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.397...+0.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 59 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 9/3*.

Their nice roll may save them, but the attack continues as I enter and hit on the 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 157
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-c--B-D-B--B-C---c-cbcaA-A:1:1:1:25:10:7:0:11:10
to play 25

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-16

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B--BbCa--c-bbc--AA:1:1:1:63:10:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.773
Player:
Opponent:
41.26% (G:12.31% B:2.25%)
58.74% (G:28.50% B:2.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.775...-0.770) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 18 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 24/18eq: -0.906 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:
38.88% (G:11.50% B:1.90%)
61.12% (G:32.57% B:2.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.908...-0.903) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.946 (-0.174)
Player:
Opponent:
34.99% (G:11.11% B:1.98%)
65.01% (G:30.80% B:4.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.949...-0.943) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 30 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/22 11/5eq: -1.080 (-0.307)
Player:
Opponent:
33.76% (G:10.13% B:1.92%)
66.24% (G:35.97% B:7.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.083...-1.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 20 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/16
[ 1] b/22 11/5


Marty Storer recommends: b/16

Bar/16 to try to get out of Dodge. It’s the wrong idea to leave any more blots, and bar/16 minimizes Black’s good numbers. If Black misses on his 9 point, White has plenty of hope left.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 149
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B--BbCa-Ac-bbc--A-:1:1:-1:54:10:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/9* 11/6eq: +0.807
Player:
Opponent:
59.40% (G:29.52% B:3.07%)
40.60% (G:11.48% B:1.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.805...+0.810) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout113/9* 9/4eq: +0.729 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
57.72% (G:27.37% B:3.19%)
42.28% (G:12.03% B:2.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.726...+0.731) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 41 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 13/9*eq: +0.722 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
58.60% (G:26.21% B:3.39%)
41.40% (G:11.16% B:1.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.719...+0.724) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 37 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9* 11/6.

Hitting with 13/9* allows me to continue my attack in hopes of a blitz, and now I must find the best 5. 9/4 dodges a 63 return shot but looks quite awkward and ugly with my 2 spares stacked on the 4 point and no spare on the other inner points. Additionally, there are 5 returns from the bar that hit on the mid point. If I am hit with anything except 11, White will forgo making an anchor this roll and at gammon save that could cost them.

13/8 dodges those ace shots, but I only really fear one of them, and that is 11. Thus I think I can make the pretty diversified play after 13/9* with 11/6 for my 5. Now I have all sorts of good rolls next turn, and if White anchors, I may be able to make the bar or even the 9 point. Certainly this play will result in the most gammon wins for me, and that really is foremost in my plans at this gammon go score.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B--BaC--ac-cbc--AA:1:1:1:26:10:7:0:11:10
to play 26

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B--AbDb--c-c-c--AA:1:1:1:52:10:7:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 13/11eq: -0.501
Player:
Opponent:
47.65% (G:16.15% B:2.89%)
52.35% (G:21.62% B:1.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.503...-0.498) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.550 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
44.72% (G:15.13% B:2.31%)
55.28% (G:21.18% B:2.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.553...-0.547) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 46 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] b/20 13/11 (coin flip!)
[9] b/23 13/8


Marty Storer recommends: b/20 13/11

All right, let Black do his worst. I recommend bar/20 13/11. White doesn’t want to be attacked on the 20 point, but the 11 point is a new and useful asset, serving as a station for builders aiming at the open 5 and 7 points. Also, if White can hit or anchor on the 20, things will probably be all right. Another reason to stay on the 20 point is that Black will often be forced to leave a double direct return shot if he wants to hit twice inside.

Play B seems to be bar/18, stepping away from the lion’s mouth of Black’s 5 point. That’s what I’d do if there were no new point to be had, or no other fine way to play a 2. Bar/23 13/8 is a try, but like alternatives, that play leaves the back checkers vulnerable to many attacking numbers, also giving Black best chances to use his 4-point dilly builder to effect. It’s much more dangerous than it may look.



Neil Kazaross: 61 11/5* 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B--BbCa--c-bbc--AA:1:1:1:36:10:7:0:11:10
to play 36

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 159
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---cEb--c-c-b--B-:1:1:1:62:10:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.Rollout113/5eq: -0.493
Player:
Opponent:
43.69% (G:15.34% B:2.06%)
56.31% (G:17.47% B:3.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.496...-0.490) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 39 minutes
2.xgRollout124/16eq: -0.506 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
44.71% (G:14.38% B:2.11%)
55.29% (G:19.08% B:1.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.509...-0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 39 minutes
3.playedRollout124/18 13/11eq: -0.512 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
45.66% (G:15.92% B:2.64%)
54.34% (G:20.25% B:2.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.514...-0.509) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 47 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: -0.516 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
43.39% (G:15.83% B:2.49%)
56.61% (G:18.31% B:3.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.519...-0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 48 minutes
5.Rollout124/22 13/7eq: -0.537 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
42.59% (G:14.74% B:2.19%)
57.41% (G:18.51% B:2.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.539...-0.534) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 00 minute
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 24/18 13/11
[5] 24/16
[4] 13/5
[1] 24/22 13/7


Marty Storer recommends: 13/5

This looks to me like a tough choice between 13/5 and 24/16. (I don’t like 13/7 13/11 because it doesn’t duplicate any more of Black’s good numbers than does 13/5, it leaves two blots instead of one, and it slots a less valuable point.) At a normal score I might play either of those moves, or 24/18 13/11. All three plays have their attractions and none is really great. But at Gammon Save I want to avoid mixing things up too much, therefore I prefer not to put a blot on the 18 point.

24/16 is straightforward, trying to flee and minimizing shots at the runner. Yet it’s a bit feeble, and breaks White’s anchor.

What about 13/5? The problem with that move is that it gives White a chance to send back a third checker. Yet if Black misses, White can most often cover the 5; and the slotting play keeps the 24 anchor for security.

As noted, this is a tough choice. I’ll go with 13/5, “playing to win rather than playing not to lose.” The slot is a reasonable mix of aggression and safety.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 159
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B--AcDb--cAc-b--A-:1:1:-1:63:10:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedXG Roller++13/7* 7/4eq: +0.461
Player:
Opponent:
53.11% (G:18.99% B:1.05%)
46.89% (G:13.96% B:0.77%)
2.XG Roller++13/7* 11/8eq: +0.336 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
49.61% (G:16.38% B:0.85%)
50.39% (G:15.62% B:1.12%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7*/4.

This decent roll allows me to safely hit and lift and prepare for my hoped for match ending blitz, while leaving no counter shots.

I play 13/7*/4, and hopefully the USBGF Members cannot anchor and I can point on them or double hit next roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B--AbDb--c-c-c--AA:1:1:1:52:10:7:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:00:10:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:46.50% (G:12.49% B:1.07%)46.63% (G:12.65% B:1.23%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:53.50% (G:18.66% B:2.53%)53.37% (G:19.06% B:2.80%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.059+0.812
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.779 (-0.033)±0.003 (+0.776..+0.782)
played Double/Take:+0.812±0.004 (+0.809..+0.816)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.188)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 hours 27 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] Take


Marty Storer recommends: Take

Not much thought required here. White does much better to play for two points as the game favorite than to give up a point and start less than afresh, with no free drop and with Black at the pure Backgammon Go score.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---eE---c-e----B-:1:1:-1:22:10:7:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.390
Player:
Opponent:
52.30% (G:16.39% B:1.85%)
47.70% (G:17.03% B:2.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.387...+0.392) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout124/22(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.351 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
51.99% (G:14.83% B:1.16%)
48.01% (G:14.40% B:1.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.348...+0.353) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 46 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11(2) 6/4(2).

The normal way to play 22 after an opening 42 is to make the 4 and 22 points with the 4 and 11 points a reasonably close second play. Making the 22 point cuts down somewhat on gammon losses whereas making the 11 point results in more gammon wins. Since this is a gammon go score for me, I don’t care about more gammon losses and my gammon wins are actually a tad more valuable than a single game win.

Therefore, I make the 4 and 11 points at this score, and instantly.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 159
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---cEb--c-c-b--B-:1:1:1:62:10:7:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-11 Start of Match #2 Game #10

[Previous][Next]


USBGF Members: 42 8/4 6/4

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:00:10:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles.

USBGF OLM 2014-02-11 End of Match #2 Game #9

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 17
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 88
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBCBBB-----------A--bb-cA:0:0:1:42:10:5:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 18/14eq: -1.695
Player:
Opponent:
5.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.95% (G:62.86% B:2.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.695...-1.695) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30.3 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 5/1eq: -1.858 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent:
3.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.92% (G:72.59% B:2.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.858...-1.857) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/23 6/2eq: -1.865 (-0.170)
Player:
Opponent:
2.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.26% (G:72.67% B:2.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.866...-1.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.1 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/19eq: -2.004 (-0.309)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:79.60% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.004...-2.004) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4.0 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] b/23 18/14
[ 1] b/19


Marty Storer recommends: b/23 18/14

Bar/23 18/14 is clearly best. There’s no way to win the game without hitting, and Black will have eight blot numbers (62 52 42 12) against a checker on his 2 point. Also, that checker has another kind of value as an obstacle. It will delay Black’s bearoff on some of his following rolls, or force him to leave a shot if he wants to rip checkers off in the attempt to win a critical gammon. For example, how does he play 31 or 11?

Note that White’s chance to lose a backgammon is of little concern. To lose two points is much worse than losing one, but losing three is only slightly worse than losing two. Whether Black gets to 7 points or 8, he will still need two two-point wins or one doubled gammon in order to win the match. The eighth point has value for Black, getting him to an even score where White cannot exercise a “free drop”–where the post-Crawford match leader gives up a point to the even-away opponent rather than play out a doubled game as an underdog. Here, the value of the free drop is insignificant when weighed against several percent of extra winning chances.



Neil Kazaross: 62 4/2* 4/0
USBGF Members: 33 no play
Neil Kazaross: 64 3/0(2)
USBGF Members: 65 b/14
Neil Kazaross: 22 2/0 1/0(3)

Neil Kazaross wins 2 points

USBGF Members lead 10-7 (to 11), post-Crawford

USBGF OLM 2014-02-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 33
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 103
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBCCC--------------ecbB-:0:0:1:32:10:5:1:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout16/1eq: -1.367
Player:
Opponent:
8.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.35% (G:42.16% B:6.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.368...-1.366) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout15/3 4/1eq: -1.370 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
8.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.38% (G:42.34% B:6.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.371...-1.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 09 seconds
3.xgRollout14/1 3/1eq: -1.380 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
8.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.71% (G:42.56% B:6.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.380...-1.379) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54219605
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 6/1
[ 3] 5/3 4/1
[ 1] 5/2 4/2


Marty Storer recommends: 6/1

White must fill the 1 point, 4/1, to help save the gammon, and also in hopes of covering after a lucky hit.

For the 2, 6/4 looks best. First, spares on the 4 and 5 give 24 ways to cover the blot in case White needs to do so; 5/3 leaves only 23 covers. Second, 6/4 does better if White follows immediately with a roll that doesn’t move a back checker. Double 3 plays 6/3(2) 5/2 4/1, keeping a five-point board; and 31 closes the board. If White has spares on the 6 and 3 instead of on the 5 and 4, those rolls play worse.



Neil Kazaross: 43 4/0 3/0
USBGF Members: 32 5/3 4/1
Neil Kazaross: 32 4/2 3/0
USBGF Members: 51 24/18
Neil Kazaross: 11 4/3 2/1*(3)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 17
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 88
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBCBBB-----------A--bb-cA:0:0:1:24:10:5:1:11:10
to play 24

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 40
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 107
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBB-----------aadcbB-:0:0:1:11:10:5:1:11:10
to play 11

1.Rollout17/6(2) 5/4 2/1eq: -1.204
Player:
Opponent:
8.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.55% (G:29.21% B:3.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.205...-1.203) - [87.7%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
2.playedRollout17/6 7/4eq: -1.204 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
8.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.33% (G:29.64% B:3.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.205...-1.204) - [12.3%]
Duration: 7 minutes 07 seconds
3.Rollout17/6 7/5 2/1eq: -1.207 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
8.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.64% (G:29.30% B:3.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.207...-1.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout17/6(2) 5/3eq: -1.209 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
8.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.55% (G:29.68% B:3.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.210...-1.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 23 seconds
5.Rollout17/6(2) 3/1eq: -1.210 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
8.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.73% (G:29.46% B:3.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.211...-1.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 27 seconds
6.Rollout17/5(2)eq: -1.215 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
8.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.74% (G:29.82% B:2.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.216...-1.214) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 35 seconds
7.Rollout17/6(2) 2/1(2)eq: -1.216 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
8.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.77% (G:29.83% B:3.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.217...-1.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 56 seconds
8.Rollout17/4 2/1eq: -1.221 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
8.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.04% (G:31.39% B:3.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.222...-1.220) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 08 seconds
9.Rollout17/6 5/3 2/1eq: -1.228 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
8.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.20% (G:31.63% B:3.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.228...-1.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds
10.Rollout17/6 5/4 3/1eq: -1.228 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
8.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.20% (G:31.64% B:3.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.229...-1.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds
11.Rollout17/3eq: -1.230 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
8.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.06% (G:32.02% B:3.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.230...-1.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 45 seconds
12.Rollout17/6 4/1eq: -1.230 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
8.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.20% (G:31.82% B:3.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.231...-1.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
13.Rollout17/4 5/4eq: -1.232 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
9.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.98% (G:32.35% B:3.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.234...-1.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds
14.Rollout17/6 5/2eq: -1.233 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
8.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.17% (G:32.10% B:3.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.233...-1.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds
15.Rollout17/6 7/5 3/2eq: -1.233 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
8.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.99% (G:30.81% B:3.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.233...-1.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds
16.Rollout17/6 7/5 4/3eq: -1.237 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
7.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.08% (G:31.01% B:3.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.238...-1.236) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds
17.Rollout17/6(2) 4/2eq: -1.238 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
7.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.11% (G:31.02% B:3.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.239...-1.237) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds
18.Rollout15/1eq: -1.239 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
9.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.25% (G:34.00% B:3.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.240...-1.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54991264
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 7/6 7/4
[ 1] 7/6 7/5 2/1
[ 1] 5/1
[ 1] 7/4


Marty Storer recommends: 7/6 7/4

The best chance to win has come and probably gone. Though Black is not completely out of the woods–he blots with immediate 51, 55 and 44, and may leave more shots later–it was great for him to vacate his two highest points, bear two checkers off, and dodge White’s bullet. That means saving the gammon is now White’s clear priority. Instead of keeping the prime for another turn, I recommend 7/4 7/6, getting two crossovers in anticipation of running a back checker next time. White can’t run with combinations of 3s, 2s, and 1s, but those numbers at least fill the open 1 point: small consolation for the wasted pips, but something.

Speaking of filling the open 1 point: that’s sometimes correct during a race to save the gammon. White can fill the ace immediately with 7/5 7/6 2/1, or gain two crossovers but switch from the 2 to the 1 point, 7/6(2) 2/1(2). It’s an axiom that lower gaps hurt gammon-saving chances more than higher ones do; that’s because you want to diversify numbers that bear in the fifteenth checker, and numbers that bear off the first one. Higher numbers are good for bearing in, and lower ones for bearing off. Therefore you want a bear-in number to correspond to a gap, and high numbers are better for bearing in.

Example, and variants, relating to higher versus lower gaps: Suppose you’re trying hard to save the gammon. You have all your interior points filled but your 4 point (with at least two checkers on each filled point), and your last outside checker is on the 11 point. With a 1 to play, you don’t fill your 4 point (for 23 numbers to bear off next time) but play 11/10 (for 28).

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 3

             
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
              pip: 63
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-CCC-BC———-A——c-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
to play 61

1.XG Roller++17/10eq: -1.352
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:35.19% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++17/11 5/4eq: -1.468 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:46.76% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Similarly, with the 2 point open and your last outside checker on the 9 point, you play 9/8 instead of 3/2.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 3

             
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
              pip: 67
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-C-CCBC——–A——–c-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
to play 61

1.xgXG Roller++15/8eq: -1.167
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:16.67% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++15/9 3/2eq: -1.213 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:21.30% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

With the 3 point open and the checker on the 10 point, play 10/9, not 4/3.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 3

             
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
              pip: 65
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-CC-CBC———A——-c-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
to play 61

1.XG Roller++16/9eq: -1.213
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:21.30% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++16/10 4/3eq: -1.329 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:32.87% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

With the 5 point open and the checker on the 12 point, play 12/11.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 3

             
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
              pip: 63
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-CCBC-C———–A—–c-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
to play 61

1.xgXG Roller++18/11eq: -1.491
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:49.07% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++18/12 6/5eq: -1.653 (-0.162)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:65.28% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

But in those same situations with the 1 point open instead of the 2, 3, 4 or 5, you play 2/1 except if the exterior checker is on the 12 (with the checker on the 11, 2/1 and 11/10 are equal).

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 3

             
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
              pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=–CCCBC———-A——c-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
to play 61

1.XG Roller++17/11 2/1eq: -1.468
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:46.76% B:0.00%)
2.xgXG Roller++17/10eq: -1.468
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:46.76% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 3

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 70
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=–CCCBC——–A——–c-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
to play 61

1.xgXG Roller++15/9 2/1eq: -1.213
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:21.30% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++15/8eq: -1.398 (-0.185)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.81% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 3

             
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
              pip: 71
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=–CCCBC———A——-c-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
to play 61

1.xgXG Roller++16/10 2/1eq: -1.329
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:32.87% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++16/9eq: -1.421 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:42.13% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 3

             
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
              pip: 75
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=–CBCCC———–A—–c-:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
to play 61

1.XG Roller++18/11eq: -1.560
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:56.02% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++18/12 2/1eq: -1.653 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:65.28% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Stranger things have happened, but in this position I doubt that filling or switching is best. White may still hit, after all. Maybe a filling or switching play would be correct at a pure Gammon Go score (ahead at Crawford, opponent needing 2). In that case I’d be tempted to play 7/6 7/5 2/1.



Neil Kazaross: 52 6/4 5/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 33
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 103
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBCCC--------------ecbB-:0:0:1:32:10:5:1:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 51
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBBBA----------bbdcbB-:0:0:1:21:10:5:1:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout18/6 7/6eq: -0.985
Player:
Opponent:
12.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
87.84% (G:17.95% B:1.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.986...-0.984) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds
2.playedRollout18/5eq: -0.990 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
12.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
87.06% (G:19.58% B:1.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.991...-0.989) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout17/6 7/5eq: -0.992 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
12.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
87.75% (G:18.67% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.993...-0.992) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54991264
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[8] 8/5
[6] 7/6 7/5
[5] 8/6 7/6


Marty Storer recommends: 8/5

Another tough one. This time I’ll recommend 8/5, hoping for a hit, after which a full prime would be nice to have. “You can’t be gammoned if you win.” But either 7/6 7/5 or 8/6 7/6 may be best; I’m really not sure. It’s tempting to get two crossovers one way or the other, and it’s difficult to quantify such positions without having studied them intensively.



Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 40
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 107
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBB-----------aadcbB-:0:0:1:11:10:5:1:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 59
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 117
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCCBA----------ccdbbB-:0:0:1:43:10:5:1:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout18/4 5/2eq: -0.997
Player:
Opponent:
11.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.52% (G:17.84% B:1.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.998...-0.996) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 6/2eq: -1.000 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
11.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.57% (G:17.96% B:1.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.000...-0.999) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 09 seconds
3.playedRollout16/2 5/2eq: -1.001 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
11.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.12% (G:18.79% B:1.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.002...-1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 17 seconds
4.Rollout17/4 6/2eq: -1.002 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
11.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.53% (G:18.18% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.002...-1.001) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10662719
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 6/2 5/2
[ 1] 8/4 5/2
[ 1] 8/4 7/4


Marty Storer recommends: 8/4 5/2

This play is not at all clear to me. Black has no blot numbers this turn, and that’s a reason for White to think about passing up the 2 point in favor of a slotting play. Such a play may gain future flexibility, and White can also get a crossover. A crossover may be worth something at this GS-like score–I doubt it can be worth much–but I think it’s wrong to cross twice without slotting the 2 point; White wants to hit and win, and has to improve the board sometime. I’ll recommend 8/4 5/2, giving the same chance to cover the 2 point as 8/5 6/2, but keeping a spare on the 6 point. That spare will mean extra flexibility after some of the larger cover numbers.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 59
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBBBA----------ccdbbB-:0:0:-1:62:10:5:1:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout16/Off 5/3eq: +0.986
Player:
Opponent:
88.44% (G:17.11% B:1.06%)
11.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.985...+0.987) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 4/2eq: +0.971 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
86.74% (G:18.58% B:1.21%)
13.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.970...+0.972) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 40 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10662719
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/0 5/3.

This looks routine as 5/3 is clearly safer for the long term than 4/2. Of course, 5/3 exposes me to the horrid double shot leaving 65, but it also prepares to clear both back points. Note that 4/2 blots after 44 and 66 as is easily seen and has a surprise blot number of 53 (often missed when I’ve heard people discuss this position).

Note the difference if White’s board was destroyed. Then I’d be more concerned with not leaving two blots since that would be about the only realistic way to lose this game. But here, I likely lose when just one blot is hit over the next several turns as they have some timing. Thus, long term safety matters.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 51
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBBBA----------bbdcbB-:0:0:1:21:10:5:1:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-02-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 68
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 128
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBB----AA--a--ccdbbB-:0:0:1:65:10:5:1:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/8 12/6eq: -0.989
Player:
Opponent:
10.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.22% (G:16.12% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.990...-0.988) - [58.5%]
Duration: 25 minutes 16 seconds
2.xgRollout112/6 7/2eq: -0.989 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
10.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.18% (G:16.19% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.990...-0.988) - [41.5%]
Duration: 26 minutes 40 seconds
3.Rollout113/2eq: -0.992 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
11.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.00% (G:16.68% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.993...-0.991) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10662719
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 13/8 12/6
[6] 13/2


Marty Storer recommends: 12/6 7/2

There are three good moves: 13/2, keeping the five-prime and slotting the next target point; 12/6 7/2, forgetting about the five-prime, concentrating on future improvement by maximizing overall flexibility; and 12/6 13/8, keeping the five points in a row, adding builders for the 2 point and wasting no outside motion.

Wastage of outside motion isn’t of much concern. Black won’t leave a shot next turn unless he volunteers with some small number–but he didn’t take any chances last turn, playing the safe 11/9 5/4(2) instead of the more optimistic 11/10 5/4 5/3. He’ll likely safety his outside checker no matter what he rolls. That means White should have no worries about blotting on the 2 point this time. White wants to keep the 24 point for a while yet, and so will have to fill the 2 point soon, and perhaps the 1 point as well. But 12/6 13/8 certainly isn’t bad.

12/6 7/2 follows the principle that a strong board is built fastest by slotting and then covering. After this move, White has no bad numbers. After 13/2, there are fewer ways to make the 2 point, and double 4 is somewhat ugly.

I prefer 12/6 7/2 because Black is quite unlikely to leave a shot over the next couple of turns. That means White should try to increase long-term prospects to create and keep a good board. It makes sense to start by aiming all guns at the open 2 point. That said, the other two moves can’t be too far wrong.



Neil Kazaross: 54 9/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 59
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 117
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCCBA----------ccdbbB-:0:0:1:43:10:5:1:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-01-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 72
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 148
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BCBAA---BBa----cebbbB-:0:0:1:55:10:5:1:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout113/3 12/7 8/3eq: -0.952
Player:
Opponent:
14.91% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
85.09% (G:19.65% B:1.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.953...-0.951) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 13/3 12/7eq: -0.955 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
14.90% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
85.10% (G:19.86% B:1.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.956...-0.954) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout113/8(2) 12/7(2)eq: -0.958 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
14.87% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
85.13% (G:20.02% B:1.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.959...-0.957) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 29 seconds
4.Rollout113/3(2)eq: -0.958 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
14.69% (G:0.04% B:0.01%)
85.31% (G:19.80% B:1.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.960...-0.957) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10662719
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 13/3 12/7 8/3
[ 4] 13/3(2)
[ 3] 13/8(2) 12/7(2)
[ 1] 13/8 13/3 12/7


Marty Storer recommends: 13/3 12/7 8/3

It looks right to make the 3 and 7 points for a five-point prime. That way White gains on a few 17-to-1 shots, and also dissuades Black from smoothing with rolls like 32 and 41. The structure will last a while, and will help if Black leaves a direct shot any time soon (unlikely for at least several rolls).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 72
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 128
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBB----AAa----cebbbB-:0:0:-1:11:10:5:1:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout111/9 5/4(2)eq: +0.940
Player:
Opponent:
86.08% (G:17.19% B:1.32%)
13.92% (G:0.31% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.939...+0.941) - [96.1%]
Duration: 36 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout111/8 5/4eq: +0.939 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
85.88% (G:17.41% B:1.37%)
14.12% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.938...+0.940) - [3.9%]
Duration: 33 minutes 34 seconds
3.Rollout111/10 5/4 5/3eq: +0.931 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
85.50% (G:17.38% B:1.35%)
14.50% (G:0.36% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.930...+0.932) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10662719
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/9 5/4(2).

Many plays are possible and if I am not careful I can create a blotting 55 for myself. It looks like 11/9 5/4(2) is safe and flexible so I will play that.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 68
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 128
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBB----AA--a--ccdbbB-:0:0:1:65:10:5:1:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-01-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 96
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 157
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BCBA-b--BBa--A-ce-bbB-:0:0:1:54:10:5:1:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout117/8eq: -0.420
Player:
Opponent:
39.91% (G:5.06% B:0.32%)
60.09% (G:16.99% B:2.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.421...-0.418) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout117/12 7/3eq: -0.439 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
39.61% (G:4.96% B:0.36%)
60.39% (G:17.97% B:3.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.441...-0.437) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10662719
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 17/8
[ 2] 17/12 7/3


Marty Storer recommends: 17/8

It’s time to clear the outfield blot. The choice is between the natural 17/8, and 17/12 7/3. Unfortunately, the slot gives White few ways to cover next turn (about the same chance as to make the 3 point naturally after 17/8), and leaves a blot inside that might hurt if White hits soon. Also, it’s useful to move the spare past the obstacle on the 9 point. I prefer 17/8, though I doubt the difference between the two plays is huge.



Neil Kazaross: 66 16/4(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 72
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 148
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BCBAA---BBa----cebbbB-:0:0:1:55:10:5:1:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-01-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 103
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 165
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BCBAc--BB---Aacd-bbB-:0:0:1:22:10:5:1:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout18/4 7/5 6/4eq: -0.462
Player:
Opponent:
40.18% (G:5.51% B:0.45%)
59.82% (G:20.58% B:4.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.464...-0.460) - [96.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout117/13 6/4(2)eq: -0.464 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
38.79% (G:4.99% B:0.26%)
61.21% (G:18.75% B:2.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.466...-0.462) - [3.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
3.Rollout117/13 8/4eq: -0.494 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
37.73% (G:5.06% B:0.42%)
62.27% (G:19.42% B:2.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.496...-0.492) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
4.Rollout117/13 7/5 6/4eq: -0.497 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
38.08% (G:5.29% B:0.44%)
61.92% (G:20.22% B:2.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.499...-0.495) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10662719
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 8/4 7/5 6/4
[ 2] 17/13 8/4
[ 1] 17/15 8/4 6/4
[ 1] 12/8(2)
[ 1] 12/10(2) 7/5 6/4


Marty Storer recommends: 8/4 7/5 6/4

There are usually a lot of good choices with small doubles. This decision is difficult, requiring White to think about the best game plan.

White can lift the outside blot to the 13 point, avoiding Black’s four indirects. Then the final 2s can be 12/10(2); 8/4; 7/5 6/4; or even 6/4(2). I think White should keep both midpoints in any case, needing to restrain Black’s back checkers.

The other idea is to leave the outside blot alone and make the 4 point: 8/4 7/5 6/4. That move pays off to 62 and 53, but it might give Black trouble on the next turn.

I prefer making the 4 point, taking some risk in return for maximal restraint, while improving the board. I recommend 8/4 7/5 6/4. For money I wouldn’t hesitate, but I won’t be surprised if a play with 17/13 comes out ahead at this gammon save-like score.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 103
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 157
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BCBA-c--BB---Aacd-bbB-:0:0:-1:52:10:5:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout116/11 7/5eq: +0.340
Player:
Opponent:
55.22% (G:18.22% B:4.26%)
44.78% (G:6.75% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.338...+0.342) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout116/9eq: +0.326 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
54.13% (G:18.96% B:3.10%)
45.87% (G:8.65% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.324...+0.328) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
3.Rollout17/2 5/3eq: +0.318 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
55.32% (G:16.49% B:2.95%)
44.68% (G:6.53% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.316...+0.320) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10662719
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/11 7/5.

While White’s board is improving, it isn’t tragic to be hit yet noting that the bar point isn’t covered and the rolls that hit and cover leave returns. Therefore, I will challenge in the outfield with 16/11 and lift my blot with 7/5. I really don’t think it is time for me to bury checkers yet, although it may soon come to that, but at least I preserve plenty of spares.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 96
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 157
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BCBA-b--BBa--A-ce-bbB-:0:0:1:54:10:5:1:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2014-01-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 112
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 172
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BCBAd--BB-----cd-bbC-:0:0:1:43:10:5:1:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout124/17eq: -0.492
Player:
Opponent:
39.14% (G:6.08% B:0.52%)
60.86% (G:21.30% B:4.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.494...-0.489) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 30 minutes
2.xgRollout18/4 7/4eq: -0.503 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
39.19% (G:6.50% B:0.55%)
60.81% (G:22.16% B:5.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.505...-0.501) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout124/21 8/4eq: -0.526 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
40.08% (G:6.65% B:0.55%)
59.92% (G:25.17% B:7.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.528...-0.523) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 18 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10662719
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 24/17
[ 5] 24/21 8/4
[ 3] 8/4 7/4
[ 1] 24/21 12/8


Marty Storer recommends: 24/17

I play 24/17. It looks worth four shots to cover outfield territory and jump the spare back checker. After the alternative 8/4 7/4, White won’t be happy if Black brings a checker into his outfield. White’s 8 point is slotted, so a hit may easily lead to a strong four-prime after 24/17.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 112
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 165
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BCBAd--BB---A-cd-bbB-:0:0:-1:63:10:5:1:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout116/7eq: +0.475
Player:
Opponent:
59.99% (G:21.50% B:3.01%)
40.01% (G:5.95% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.473...+0.477) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes
2.Rollout116/10 5/2eq: +0.422 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
58.92% (G:18.97% B:3.54%)
41.08% (G:6.46% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.420...+0.425) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 09 minutes
3.Rollout116/10 6/3eq: +0.407 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
58.25% (G:18.79% B:3.60%)
41.75% (G:6.76% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.405...+0.409) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10662719
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/7.

Sometimes backgammon is an easy game. When you don’t want to move any of your more forward checkers, just move checkers from the back and preferably from a stack. So this means 16/7.

Note that I have to leave a blot no matter what I play. Now if I’m hit, my opponents break their anchor, and I may be able to counter attack and perhaps win a gammon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 103
             
11 point match
Crawford
              pip: 165
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BCBAc--BB---Aacd-bbB-:0:0:1:22:10:5:1:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10