USBGF OLM 2017-09-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
             
11 point match
              pip: 87
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBC-a-----Ba---bbbbbbaA:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout1Bar/24* 5/1eq: -1.127
Player:
Opponent:
5.24% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
94.76% (G:15.79% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.128...-1.126) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/24* 13/9eq: -1.131 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
5.25% (G:0.23% B:0.01%)
94.75% (G:16.10% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.132...-1.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 18 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/24* 13/9
[11] b/24* 5/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 108
             
11 point match
              pip: 82
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBBC-a-A---Aa---bbbbbbA-:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/19 18/13eq: +1.066
Player:
Opponent:
95.32% (G:10.04% B:0.26%)
4.68% (G:0.19% B:0.01%)
2.xgXG Roller++Bar/19 11/6eq: +1.063 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
95.34% (G:9.64% B:0.27%)
4.66% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/14eq: +1.049 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
95.37% (G:8.28% B:0.22%)
4.63% (G:0.21% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/19 18/13.

I think the plan is to try to catch another checker. I think that this means that I want to avoid being hit and also to try to maximize the number of rolls my opponents can roll that leave a direct shot. 18/13 appears to do just that as they have some bad 5’s and 6’s. The alternative plan is to place more pressure on the trapped blot on my ace point with 11/6 but then I usually get hit and will need a joker from the bar to hit back.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
             
11 point match
              pip: 82
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBCa--A--aAa---bbbbbbA-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 9/20 515p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-09-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABABBCb----bBB--a-bcbba--:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout16/3 6/1eq: +0.110
Player:
Opponent:
54.14% (G:3.87% B:0.12%)
45.86% (G:6.55% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.103...+0.117) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 5/2eq: +0.029 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
51.85% (G:3.38% B:0.07%)
48.15% (G:8.91% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.020...+0.037) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout16/1 4/1eq: -0.017 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:
50.91% (G:3.10% B:0.06%)
49.09% (G:9.28% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.026...-0.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout114/6eq: -0.069 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:
47.61% (G:8.26% B:0.35%)
52.39% (G:8.96% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.075...-0.064) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72304706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 6/3 6/1
[ 3] 14/6


Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/3 6/1

Neil’s board is too strong to allow us to do any form of paying now. Therefore we should rearrange our checkers with in our inner board and strengthen it at the same time with 6/3 6/1. Maybe when we pay, Neil with have given up his mid-point meaning we could leave fewer shots.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116

             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=-ABABBCb—-bBB–a-ccbaa–:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.XG Roller++6/3 6/1eq: +0.136
Player:
Opponent:
55.37% (G:6.05% B:0.17%)
44.63% (G:7.03% B:0.13%)
2.XG Roller++14/9 6/3eq: +0.125 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
55.03% (G:10.88% B:0.45%)
44.97% (G:9.75% B:0.26%)
3.XG Roller++14/6eq: +0.095 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
53.82% (G:8.87% B:0.30%)
46.18% (G:7.04% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

In order to make paying now correct, we would have to leave a second blot in Neil’s board


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBAb----bBB--a-bcbba--:0:0:-1:33:2:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10 13/7 5/2eq: -0.132
Player:
Opponent:
46.17% (G:5.77% B:0.10%)
53.83% (G:1.41% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.138...-0.126) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout113/10(2) 8/2eq: -0.154 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
44.83% (G:5.20% B:0.09%)
55.17% (G:1.38% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.160...-0.147) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 13/7 5/2.

This is an easy play since I can’t hold everything and still trail substantially in the race, so I must retain the 18 point. Therefore, 13/10(2) 5/2 then 10/7 preparing to make a prime which can allow me to play for the gammon if I hit a quick shot and will prevent any jokers from the bar.



USBGF Members: 63 14/5
Neil Kazaross: 61 18/11*
USBGF Members: 54 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 94
             
11 point match
              pip: 92
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBCAa-----Baa-aabbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:94.08% (G:18.68% B:0.38%)94.68% (G:18.64% B:0.35%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:5.92% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)5.32% (G:0.61% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities+1.069+2.194
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.105±0.003 (+1.102..+1.108)
     Double/Take:+2.161 (+1.056)±0.006 (+2.155..+2.166)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.105)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 9.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I am clearly too good here as most rolls make a full prime and the only thing I really don’t want to roll is boxes. If some rare accident happens to me, my opponents have a crashed 5 point board, so I may survive with a 6 from the bar.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 94
             
11 point match
              pip: 92
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBCAa-----Baa-aabbbbb-A:0:0:-1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout110/6 8/7eq: +1.151
Player:
Opponent:
95.66% (G:20.24% B:0.46%)
4.34% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.148...+1.154) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout111/7 8/7eq: +1.140 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
95.35% (G:19.63% B:0.47%)
4.65% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.136...+1.143) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 23 seconds
3.Rollout111/7 10/9eq: +1.134 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
95.23% (G:18.89% B:0.49%)
4.77% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.131...+1.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout118/17 11/7eq: +1.131 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
94.78% (G:19.49% B:0.42%)
5.22% (G:0.15% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.128...+1.134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout118/14 8/7eq: +1.127 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
95.35% (G:18.12% B:0.37%)
4.65% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.124...+1.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 8/7.

I’ll make my prime and put a builder in an optimal spot. I will be happy to close my board here as then I can win a gammon about a quarter of the time



USBGF Members: 51 b/24 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 89
             
11 point match
              pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBC-a-----Ba---bcbbbbA-:0:0:-1:32:2:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout16/1*eq: +1.156
Player:
Opponent:
96.19% (G:19.58% B:0.29%)
3.81% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.154...+1.159) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout118/16 11/8eq: +1.120 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
94.60% (G:15.81% B:0.45%)
5.40% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.118...+1.122) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout111/6eq: +1.113 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
94.62% (G:14.93% B:0.41%)
5.38% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.111...+1.115) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24943622
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1*.

I’ll hit with 6/1*, going straight for the close out with about 25% gammon chances if I achieve it. This looks better to me than following an often difficult road to catching a 2nd checker since my opponents have a 5 point board and can often get their checkers on the mid point to safety.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 84
             
11 point match
              pip: 87
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBC-a-----Ba---bbbbbbaA:0:0:1:14:2:0:0:11:10
to play 14

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 118
             
11 point match
              pip: 107
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bBB--aabcbb---:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout18/4 8/3eq: +0.162
Player:
Opponent:
55.77% (G:4.32% B:0.16%)
44.23% (G:6.18% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.155...+0.169) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 5/1eq: +0.137 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
55.44% (G:2.90% B:0.07%)
44.56% (G:8.50% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.129...+0.144) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.Rollout16/2 6/1eq: +0.137 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
55.31% (G:2.82% B:0.07%)
44.69% (G:8.08% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.129...+0.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
4.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.115 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
54.68% (G:2.95% B:0.11%)
45.32% (G:8.37% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.107...+0.123) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 41 seconds
5.Rollout18/4 6/1eq: -0.032 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent:
50.25% (G:8.55% B:0.37%)
49.75% (G:11.71% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.039...-0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 50 seconds
6.Rollout114/5eq: -0.103 (-0.265)
Player:
Opponent:
47.47% (G:3.20% B:0.10%)
52.53% (G:9.91% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.109...-0.097) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72473954
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/4 8/3
[ 4] 6/1 5/1
[ 4] 13/9 13/8
[ 3] 6/2 6/1
[ 3] 14/5
[ 1] 8/4 6/1
[ 1] 14/10 14/9


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4 8/3

When I looked at this my gut instinct was 8/4 8/3. It sure looks ugly but does not leave a shot. I was unsure but went with that. I then checked and it was correct. What I had not fully appreciated was if I play safe and wait – Neil does not have that much timing here. He will have to damage his position by either giving up his mid-point or moving deeper into his board.

To test this I moved Neil’s spare checker on his 5 point backwards and when it gets to his 9 point, he has enough timing that 13/9 13/8 becomes our correct play.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122

             
11 point match
              pip: 107
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=-AB-ABCbB—bBB-aaabbbb—:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.XG Roller++13/9 13/8eq: +0.178
Player:
Opponent:
55.42% (G:3.70% B:0.18%)
44.58% (G:8.01% B:0.27%)
2.XG Roller++8/4 8/3eq: +0.133 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
55.45% (G:4.49% B:0.13%)
44.55% (G:6.07% B:0.13%)
3.XG Roller++6/2 6/1eq: +0.131 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
56.13% (G:3.10% B:0.05%)
43.87% (G:7.99% B:0.17%)
4.XG Roller++6/1 5/1eq: +0.124 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
55.82% (G:2.94% B:0.06%)
44.18% (G:8.17% B:0.17%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 8/4 8/3

This is a particularly difficult “pay me now, pay me later” position.

The reason is that most times, when you “pay now”, the reward is an immediate win.

Here, even if you are missed when you break the mid-point (13-9, 13-8) you still have to clear an outfield point and only be up approximately 11 or 12 pips which is far from a winning position.

And when you are hit, you have two blots in your board so Black can play extra aggressively in an effort to prime White in or even close them out.

If you break the eight-point however, your next six barring double sixes will leave a direct shot. At least in that situation you will have a four-point board and possible make a fifth point is you roll 6-5.

At that point, Black will attempt to make a fifth point in his board with his three builders. And while he is unlikely to make the new point he can at least slot it in an attempt to cover the following roll.

And even then, White will only leave a shot 10/36 times.

If he leaves a shot with (6-2, 6-3, 6-4 or 6-4) Black will hit with 15 numbers and if White leaves a shot with (6-1) Black will hit with 11 numbers.

That averages out to about one third of the time so the immediate possibility for White to leave a shot and then be hit is about 9%. That’s quite a bit less often than the 30.55% of the time White is hit if he volunteers.

So since an immediate hit is nearly as bad as a later hit you’re better off hoping to get lucky later.

If the nature of the position were such that Black was unprepared to contain a White checker if it were hit, that’s the time you want to take your chances and leave the shot.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 118
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABABBCb----bBB--aabcbb---:0:0:-1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout17/2eq: -0.179
Player:
Opponent:
43.71% (G:6.42% B:0.21%)
56.29% (G:5.18% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.185...-0.173) - [96.8%]
Duration: 50 minutes 03 seconds
2.xgRollout18/3eq: -0.187 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
42.94% (G:5.80% B:0.19%)
57.06% (G:4.32% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.194...-0.181) - [3.2%]
Duration: 48 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72473954
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/2.

Even though I sometimes get a shot next turn, I will continue with my plan to further prepare my board and slot 7/2. This should win more often than 8/3. For 7/2 to fail, I have to hit a shot and be hit back and then fail to enter a board that usually will have a blot or two in it. The problem with 8/3 is that it can leave me some difficulties playing my next roll when I don’t get a shot.

Of course after 7/2, I may also roll a hit and cover joker if my opponents blot.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
             
11 point match
              pip: 98
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABABBCb----bBB--a-bcbba--:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bB--Bbabbbb---:0:0:1:11:2:0:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout116/14(2)eq: +0.193
Player:
Opponent:
56.45% (G:2.86% B:0.08%)
43.55% (G:4.86% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.186...+0.200) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.Rollout116/15(2) 6/4eq: +0.088 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:
53.59% (G:3.72% B:0.12%)
46.41% (G:7.02% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.081...+0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 29711821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 16/14(2)
[ 9] 16/15(2) 6/4


Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/14(2)

After the roll we will be up 18 pips in the race. Building a stronger board is not important. So when ahead in the race – Race. 16/14(2).

This adds 61 to our list of good rolls.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 16/14(2)

In general, when you’re ahead race and when you’re behind play for contact.

In this case, White is ahead 14 pips after the play and should just try to get home safely.

By moving (16-14 [2]) he can safety his back checkers with (1-1, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5, 6-6 and 6-1). If he makes any other play he will have far fewer rolls that clear his back point.

And if anyone is concerned about giving Black too much room to maneuver his checkers by giving up control of the sixteen and fifteen-points, notice that Black has two spare checkers on his eight point and one spare checker on his seven point so White will have likely run out of timing far before Black does.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
             
11 point match
              pip: 107
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bBB--babbbb---:0:0:-1:21:2:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout18/5eq: -0.268
Player:
Opponent:
40.58% (G:5.18% B:0.14%)
59.42% (G:2.95% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.275...-0.261) - [97.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
2.Rollout18/7 8/6eq: -0.277 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
40.26% (G:4.96% B:0.14%)
59.74% (G:2.85% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.284...-0.270) - [2.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.Rollout18/6 7/6eq: -0.283 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
39.95% (G:4.86% B:0.14%)
60.05% (G:2.95% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.291...-0.276) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72473954
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5.

It looks routine just to make and keep my bar point and 5 prime. But lets slow down and take a look at the future. My opponents won’t blot next roll (the 61 that is usually a horror clears nicely). Then I will have to play, and since I need to maintain both holding points, I will have to play into my board breaking my 5 prime, unless I roll 54 to make my 2 point. This means that my target is the 2 point rather than the bar point. 8/5 better aims at my 2 point since there are 3 builders. My 6 can also be played 8/2 rather than 7/1.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 118
             
11 point match
              pip: 107
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bBB--aabcbb---:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--BDbC---bB--Bcacbb----:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.Rollout16/1 5/1eq: +0.053
Player:
Opponent:
53.10% (G:4.31% B:0.14%)
46.90% (G:8.44% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.045...+0.060) - [77.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2.playedRollout18/4 6/1eq: +0.048 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
52.99% (G:5.00% B:0.16%)
47.01% (G:8.67% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.040...+0.056) - [21.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
3.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.041 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
53.56% (G:4.57% B:0.15%)
46.44% (G:6.27% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.033...+0.048) - [0.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 8/4 6/1
[ 3] 8/3 6/2
[ 2] 13/9 13/8
[ 2] 6/1 5/1
[ 2] 16/11 8/4


Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1 5/1

I have a simple rule in these holding game positions – I volunteer a shot only after I have doubled. The reason is simple, if I double I may never need to leave a shot as my opponent could pass. I want to give a good double, so plays like 13/8 13/9 means I could get hit and never get my chance to double.

So if I scratch 13/8 13/9, both of my other choices involve 6/1 so I would play that then look at the resulting position. If I play 8/4, this is good for the bear off but it makes my 6’s awkward. So I would save a 6 and play 5/1. Note that this is not because I want a strong board; that is a small bonus but largely irrelevant.

In a chouette I would be happy with either play that involves 6/1.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax:

There are two main themes here and they come down to should White risk the shot now before your opponent has a complete prime, or delay the shot and potentially be facing a better board and prime by Black.

I personally don’t like leaving the shot here for two reasons. The first reason is that you might be able to clear one of both of your outfield points with a timely double. The second reason is that whether you are hit now or later, it’s pretty daunting.

The main advantage of leaving the shot now is that seven of the hitting numbers still give you a seven off the bar to get back into the game. Only (2-1 and 2-6) hit and make the five-prime.

However that’s a pretty steep price to pay when you can get home without the additional risk.

When taking such a risk, I look for some compelling reasons to do so. For example, if White’s timing was even worse and he didn’t have a spare checker on his eight-point, that would most likely be correct to take the risk.

Also, if Black’s containment position was weaker, say he had his three-point instead of his four-point it probably would also be correct to take the risk.

However in this case, Black is in about as strong a position as you can imagine where it’s close at all to leave the shot.

The other plays that don’t leave the shot, further weaken your timing and give you bad sixes.

You can either make your ace-point which saves a spare checker on the eight-point or you can play (8-4, 6-1) or make the ace-point, which leaves fewer blots but guarantees that if White rolls any six (barring 6-6) he will put a piece out of play.

If he plays a slower development (8-4, 6-1) he might not put a piece out of play with a six but if the position gets to a scramble you might prefer to have your checkers more consolidated and not have too many blots in your board.

Positions like these are very instructive because all of the candidate plays are quite reasonable.

What you can do as an exercise is to manipulate several of the variables to see how much of a change needs to be make before any of the three candidate plays becomes clear.



Neil Kazaross: 53 8/3 6/3


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bB--Bbabbbb---:0:0:1:11:2:0:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 133
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--ADbBB--bB--Bdacba----:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.Rollout16/1eq: +0.096
Player:
Opponent:
54.07% (G:3.58% B:0.13%)
45.93% (G:6.71% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.093...+0.100) - [99.4%]
Duration: 11 hours 52 minutes
2.Rollout16/5 6/2eq: +0.091 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
53.88% (G:3.87% B:0.15%)
46.12% (G:6.57% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.087...+0.094) - [0.6%]
Duration: 11 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout15/1 2/1eq: +0.086 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
53.73% (G:3.55% B:0.13%)
46.27% (G:6.76% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.083...+0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 45 minutes
4.playedRollout19/8 9/5eq: +0.076 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
53.39% (G:4.17% B:0.18%)
46.61% (G:6.54% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.073...+0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 52 minutes
5.Rollout26/2 5/4eq: +0.056 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
53.06% (G:3.34% B:0.12%)
46.94% (G:7.35% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.048...+0.064) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
6.Rollout29/5 6/5eq: +0.018 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
51.63% (G:7.46% B:0.35%)
48.37% (G:8.74% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.010...+0.027) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
7.Rollout28/4 6/5eq: -0.009 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:
51.19% (G:7.71% B:0.32%)
48.81% (G:9.53% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.017...0.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
8.Rollout213/9 6/5eq: -0.052 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:
49.58% (G:10.00% B:0.36%)
50.42% (G:9.25% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.061...-0.043) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 9/8 9/5
[ 3] 6/5 6/2
[ 3] 6/1
[ 1] 13/9 6/5
[ 1] 16/11


Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1

I see this misplayed a lot so I am glad this came up.

Our game plan here is just to bring our checkers home safely and bear off quickly. So any move that plays 9/5 , I would reject. The 9 point is a landing pad, and keeping it means we can play 54 from the midpoint if we want to. Sure it is one roll but we do not have to roll it next roll, if we keep the 9 point, we will have more than 1 roll to roll it.

So I would just more my internal checker(s) to give myself a good distribution of checkers. I would like to end up with at least 2 checkers on each of the 4, 5 and 6 points. I want to avoid ending up with more than 2 checkers on the 3, 2 or 1 point – especially at this stage, when an unfortunate 6 later on would put a fourth checker on the 2 point. I was drawn to 6/5 6/2 but this does put a third checker on the 2 point and gives us 1 less playable 5 inside our board.

5/1 2/1 takes a checker off our 5 point where we want it for the bear off so scratch that. That just leaves 6/1. This puts a checker on a vacant point, keeps our checker on the 5 point, and avoids putting another checker on our 2 point. So although it looks ugly, I have to play 6/1.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 6/1

I like (9-5, 9-8) but xG has it as a mistake. Why is that?

I can think of a few reasons right off the top of my head.

First of all, by breaking the nine-point if White rolls 5-4 he can’t safely break his midpoint. And with a modest race lead, his ambition should be to break outfield points preferably safely.

The second reason my play could be wrong is the fact that White has bad sixes. If you notice, White already owns the two-point and other than leaving a direct shot, the only safe six to play is from (8-2).

Black’s position rates to get better and better and White is either going to need some help with a timely double or the (5-4) that would have afforded him much needed timing to get his pieces home without leaving a shot.

A better move is the simple (6-1) which is still developmental and by the time White might leave a shot, he himself could have a four or even a five-point board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 133
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--BDbC---bB--Bdacba----:0:0:-1:31:2:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/4eq: -0.124
Player:
Opponent:
44.83% (G:6.97% B:0.22%)
55.17% (G:4.12% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.132...-0.116) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
2.xgRollout18/7 8/5eq: -0.141 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
44.42% (G:6.94% B:0.21%)
55.58% (G:4.49% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.149...-0.133) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4.

8/4 builds my board and is nicely distributed.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--BDbC---bB--Bcacbb----:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B---DbBB--bB--Cdaea-----:0:0:1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout116/5eq: +0.138
Player:
Opponent:
55.00% (G:4.37% B:0.19%)
45.00% (G:5.33% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.131...+0.146) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout116/10 6/1eq: +0.057 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
52.93% (G:4.57% B:0.16%)
47.07% (G:6.86% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.049...+0.065) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
3.Rollout19/4 9/3eq: +0.023 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
51.82% (G:4.45% B:0.19%)
48.18% (G:6.93% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.015...+0.031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 16/5


Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/5

We will be ahead in the race by 11 pips after the roll. The 5 point is a good point to start and also coming down to 2 checkers on both our 16 and 13 points means that doubles play better for us. To further see what I mean about doubles, look at how 55 and 33 play for us with 3 checkers on the 16 point (and 2 on the mid-point) and compare it to 2 checkers on both the 16 and mid points. 55 and 33 play better. I know those are only 2 rolls, but it all adds up.

16/5 and see what the dice bring us.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 16/5

If you can’t escape at least you can prepare to escape. By playing (16-5) White strips the outside point with a race lead.

That allows White to advance further with his escaping doubles such as (1-1, 3-3, 5-5 and 6-6).

And one more thing, if you don’t play (16-5) you have to give up an outfield point (probably the nine-point). By keeping the nine-point it gives White a better chance to bring his pieces home safely as White might elect to break his mid-point with 5-4 in the near future.

And for those of you experimental enough to consider (16-10, 6-1) that puts you in a situation of the “negative free roll”.

What that means is that Black will only hit you when it is to his advantage to do so with numbers like (3-1, 3-2 and 3-3!)

Would you play the lottery if you couldn’t win, but if someone picked the lucky six numbers you would have to pay them the grand prize?

I didn’t think so.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--ADbBB--bB--Bdaea-----:0:0:-1:21:2:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout16/5 6/4eq: -0.219
Player:
Opponent:
42.26% (G:5.83% B:0.20%)
57.74% (G:4.38% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.227...-0.210) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
2.Rollout17/5 6/5eq: -0.239 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
41.68% (G:5.28% B:0.19%)
58.32% (G:4.63% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.247...-0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
3.Rollout18/5eq: -0.246 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
41.53% (G:5.54% B:0.17%)
58.47% (G:4.97% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.254...-0.239) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 6/4.

This roll allows me to make my 5 point and slot the next point in line. I want to create a winning board/prime if I hit a shot later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 133
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--ADbBB--bB--Bdacba----:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=------EbCB--dB-aBc-e---A--:0:0:1:64:2:0:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.007
Player:
Opponent:
51.22% (G:9.96% B:0.34%)
48.78% (G:10.31% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.017...+0.004) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout19/5 9/3eq: -0.059 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
49.80% (G:9.89% B:0.34%)
50.20% (G:11.00% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.069...-0.050) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 8/2 6/2
[ 5] 9/5 9/3


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2 6/2

There could be some hitting going on (we hope) so we need to prepare for it. We need to have another point in our board and we need it now, and the only point that we can make is the 2 point so it will have to do.

On the good side, we have 10 checkers in the zone and after we play 8/2 6/2 we will have a better board.

Even if Neil does not leave an immediate shot, improving our board must be a good thing.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 8/2 6/2

When I first looked at this position I wondered, what’s the big deal? It seems like the only reasonable play is to make the two-point.

White is ahead in the race and can’t or escape, so he should at least improve his position in some concrete way.

By making the two-point White adds to the strength of his home board, and should Black leave a shot (which he does a third to half of the time) White will be better prepared to contain Black should he be hit.

Is there any other reasonable play besides making the two-point?

Well, slotting the five and three points by breaking the nine-point isn’t terribly out of line.

It comes down to the question of a bird in the hand versus two in the bush.

Is it better to have the two-point which is a weak point, or attempt to make the five and three-points?

If White makes the double slotting play and Black leaves a shot, White might hit and make a new point in his board, or roll a number that hits but can’t make a second point in his board so risking the blots might not pay off immediately.

If Black didn’t have White’s bar-point then the double slotting move might be a better choice as it could lead to White being able to prime Black in.

However, even if White is able to make his five and three points and then hit Black, White can’t prime Black in due to Black owning the 18-point.

Also, if you make the conservative “two-point”, there is nothing saying you won’t develop your middle board points more slowly. And since both sides are at a developmental stage, there is a lot of time before very crucial sequences may occur.

I suppose since it’s right to make the two-point that that that in general it’s better to for the bird in the hand. Unless of course that little birdy hasn’t been to the bathroom yet.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 143
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B---DbBB--dB-aBc-e---A--:0:0:-1:41:2:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout110/5eq: -0.245
Player:
Opponent:
43.01% (G:8.72% B:0.32%)
56.99% (G:13.07% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.256...-0.235) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
2.Rollout16/2* 2/1eq: -0.285 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
42.20% (G:8.19% B:0.24%)
57.80% (G:13.72% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.294...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
3.Rollout110/6 8/7eq: -0.313 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
41.31% (G:7.93% B:0.28%)
58.69% (G:13.33% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.324...-0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5.

As I have to blot no matter what, I’ll just play constructively and slot my 5 point.



USBGF Members: 61 23/16


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B---DbBB--dB--Cc-ea-----:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.099
Player:
Opponent:
46.40% (G:4.43% B:0.14%)
53.60% (G:3.39% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.107...-0.092) - [99.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
2.xgRollout113/7 8/3eq: -0.115 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
46.11% (G:4.26% B:0.14%)
53.89% (G:3.80% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.123...-0.107) - [0.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89794243
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 13/7.

13/8 13/7 tries to make good points in case an early shot somehow pops up. I can move deeper into my board later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 136
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B---DbBB--bB--Cdaea-----:0:0:1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 159
             
11 point match
              pip: 178
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-Ca--eD---c-e---AAA:0:0:1:44:2:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 24/20 13/9*(2)eq: +0.117
Player:
Opponent:
53.10% (G:15.47% B:0.75%)
46.90% (G:10.82% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.112...+0.122) - [96.8%]
Duration: 19 hours 59 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/9* 8/4(2)eq: +0.110 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
52.41% (G:19.63% B:0.90%)
47.59% (G:12.83% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.105...+0.115) - [3.2%]
Duration: 17 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/21 13/9* 6/2(2)eq: +0.071 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
51.58% (G:18.16% B:0.87%)
48.42% (G:12.47% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.059...+0.083) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/21 24/16 13/9*eq: +0.005 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
50.77% (G:14.98% B:0.77%)
49.23% (G:13.45% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.007...+0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes
5.Rollout2Bar/21 13/9*(2) 6/2eq: -0.043 (-0.160)
Player:
Opponent:
49.71% (G:14.66% B:0.63%)
50.29% (G:13.60% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.055...-0.032) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes
6.Rollout2Bar/21 13/9*(3)eq: -0.061 (-0.177)
Player:
Opponent:
49.05% (G:15.05% B:0.73%)
50.95% (G:12.82% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.072...-0.049) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
7.Rollout2Bar/21 13/9*(2) 8/4eq: -0.062 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:
49.09% (G:15.65% B:0.73%)
50.91% (G:14.20% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.073...-0.050) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
8.Rollout2Bar/21 13/9* 9/1*eq: -0.068 (-0.185)
Player:
Opponent:
48.52% (G:15.24% B:0.38%)
51.48% (G:13.39% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.080...-0.057) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46433025
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46433025
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] b/21 24/20 13/9*(2)
[ 7] b/21 13/9* 8/4(2)
[ 3] b/21 13/9* 6/2(2)
[ 3] b/21 13/9*/1*
[ 1] b/21 13/9*(3)


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 24/20 13/9*(2)

We enter Bar/21 then hit 13/9* then decide how to pay the last two 4’s.

We could play 8/4(2) making an inner board point but this leaves return shots from the bar on our side of the board.

Better is playing 13/9 and 24/20. This puts another checker into our attack zone and starts the 20 point. Even if we are hit with a Joker 33 or 11 we would have good chances of anchoring on the 21 point. This seems like the natural play to me.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: b/21 24/20 13/9*(2)

After entering with the forced four (bar-21), I look to see what my highest priorities are.

In this case, my second four will be to hit (13-9*), which leaves two more fours.

I can either play another checker from 13-9 making the nine-point or play 8-4 twice making my four point.

If I do continue to play 13-9 and make the nine-point I’ll play 24-20 with the last four.

What is my reasoning for either play which by the way both seem reasonable?

My first choice would be to play (bar-21, 13-9*[2], 24-20). I like that because it doesn’t leave any shots on my side of the board, and still prepares to make inner board points on subsequent rolls barring a joker by Black on his next shake.

Black does have some strong shots from the bar (1-1, 2-2 and 4-4) but for the most part, White will be prepared to either improve his position on his next shake by hitting Black and sending him back (should Black have entered from the bar hitting), make a high anchor in Black’s board, or making a new point in White’s board.

The other, more aggressive move is to enter, hit and make White’s four-point. This move puts Black on the bar against a two-point board, but leaves himself vulnerable to eight return shots.

In actuality the plays are very close so not much equity is gained or sacrificed by either move so how do you know over the board which one is better?

Let’s try to compare Black’s rolls after each move to see if there is some concrete mathematical evidence for which play is stronger?

After play “A”, making the nine-point, Black has eight “good to great” rolls versus one bad roll (6-6). The stronger rolls for Black are (1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-3, 4-4 and 5-4) a net gain of seven beneficial rolls for Black.

After play “B”, making White’s four-point Black has twelve “good to great” rolls versus the four rolls that fail to enter.

Those twelve rolls include (1-1, 2-2, 3-2, 6-2, 5-3, 6-3 and 5-4).

So after subtracting the four bad rolls for Black from his twelve good rolls, that leaves a net gain of eight rolls for Black following White’s choice to make an inner board point.

That’s slightly in favor of making the nine point as you leave one fewer net good rolls for Black.

Perhaps the closeness of this ratio to some extent answers why the plays are very close in equity.

It’s not an exact science as it would take more insight or post game work to truly indicate how much equity is lost after a “good” roll for Black as compared to what equity is gained after a bad roll for Black.

I don’t know too many players that could make those calculations over the board, so perhaps this shortcut of “good rolls gained or lost” is a reasonable short cut to help determine which checker play to make.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 168
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----E-CB--eB---c-eAA-A--:0:0:-1:62:2:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 24/18eq: -0.236
Player:
Opponent:
44.32% (G:9.16% B:0.38%)
55.68% (G:16.56% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.249...-0.224) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/2*eq: -0.296 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
42.56% (G:9.71% B:0.47%)
57.44% (G:17.19% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.308...-0.284) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46433025
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 24/18.

I must hop out 24/18, as 8/2* strips my 8 point and weakens my game and 13/7 is a triple shot. 24/18 also can take advantage of the fact that my opponent’s 9 and 13 points are stripped.



USBGF Members: 54 21/16 20/16


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a---EaCB--eB--Bc-e---A--:0:0:-1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout123/18 13/10eq: -0.135
Player:
Opponent:
45.57% (G:8.07% B:0.28%)
54.43% (G:9.65% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.146...-0.124) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout123/18 6/3eq: -0.181 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
44.53% (G:7.57% B:0.27%)
55.47% (G:10.32% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.191...-0.171) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout123/18 8/5eq: -0.210 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
43.70% (G:7.99% B:0.26%)
56.30% (G:10.83% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.221...-0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 58 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46433025
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/18 13/10.

23/18 is a must, making a good anchor and minimizing any attacking threats against me. Now I have a choice of three 3’s. 8/5 is rejected as an improper slot stripping my 8 point while leaving a large stack on my 6 point. So the choice is between 6/3 leaving only 11 shots and 13/10 leaving 15 shots. I give a slight nod to 13/10 as a builder for some key points and since most of the numbers that hit leave return shots. I also lose fewer pips when hit on the 10 point rather than the 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=------EbCB--dB-aBc-e---A--:0:0:1:64:2:0:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 135
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--BBC-C---cCb--cBe------:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:75.57% (G:31.28% B:1.13%)75.43% (G:33.80% B:1.21%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:24.43% (G:4.18% B:0.18%)24.57% (G:4.56% B:0.26%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.810+1.692
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+1.053±0.007 (+1.046..+1.060)
     Double/Take:+1.479 (+0.426)±0.013 (+1.466..+1.492)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.053)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 11.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42962911
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] Double
[ 6] No Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

Let’s use the Value Equation :- VE = Prime + Blitz + Race + Contact

Prime = +2 as we have 4/5 points of a prime

Blitz = +2.5 as we have good blitzing points plus an opponent’s checker on the bar

Race = +3

Contact = +1 as Neil has no anchor, no board and is on the bar so has limited contact.

so VE = 2 + 2.5 + 3 + 1 = 8.5

One of the strange things about Backgammon in New Zealand is the Jacoby rule is not used in money play. This makes the transition to match play much easier, and means I always think “am I too good to double?”. I always like to think about a position in terms of a money game (or normal match score) then alter it to the score. Here for money without Jacoby I think this is too Good to Double but would double as I would get some takes. For Money with Jacoby you have to double and I think it would be a close pass. If this is too good to double without Jacoby (or at a Normal match score) then a 1 point lead means we must still be too Good to double. I am also confident that Neil will pass.

I could be wrong but let’s play on and re-evaluate next turn.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Neil Kazaross passes.

I have a huge pass here, and I think the USBGF Members were actually too good. I’m on the bar, and even if I roll a 32, I still will be a substantial underdog.


USBGF Members win one point, and now lead 9-away/11-away



USBGF Members: 41 24/23 13/9


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout124/16*eq: +0.218
Player:
Opponent:
54.50% (G:14.68% B:0.77%)
45.50% (G:12.68% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.206...+0.230) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.064 (-0.283)
Player:
Opponent:
47.47% (G:13.94% B:0.63%)
52.53% (G:16.04% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.076...-0.053) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46433025
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/16*.

I’m happy to hit 24/16*, which is lots better than making my 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 159
             
11 point match
              pip: 178
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-Ca--eD---c-e---AAA:0:0:1:44:2:0:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 32
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABaC-a--------Aaa-cc-bab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:72.70% (G:37.39% B:1.30%)72.63% (G:37.23% B:1.43%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:27.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)27.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.848+1.728
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.848 (-0.152)±0.006 (+0.843..+0.854)
     Double/Take:+1.502 (+0.502)±0.008 (+1.493..+1.510)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42962911
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] Double
[13] No Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

I will approach this as I would over the board. We know that we win 49.2% of the time with 8 checkers off and we have a checker on the bar and no gap on our 1 point. We might be missed and so not end up on the bar, therefore we have to have a greater than 50% chance of winning. The fact that Black has two gaps in his board, and a blot in one of them and we could win a Gammon means this has to be either a double or Too Good to Double. As it is not immediately obvious to me that it is too Good, I would Double and give my opponent the tough decision.

I asked myself ‘Would I double if Black had a stronger board?’ So I gave Black a closed board and I still like the double.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 92

             
11 point match
              pip: 32
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-ABaC-a——–Aa–bbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:69.03% (G:25.37% B:0.49%)68.70% (G:26.37% B:0.48%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:30.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)31.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.644+1.320
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.642 (-0.358)
Double/Take:+1.107 (+0.107)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: Double

I would double as White and expect Neil to pass.

While White can still win a gammon, there is too great a chance he can leave a shot and be hit and then potentially lose the game.

What I would do in a situation like this is to go through White’s numbers and see how many times Black gets a single shot, a double shot and no shots. Then I try to estimate how often White will be hit and possibly lose.

White has six great rolls (1-1, 2-1, 5-5 and 6-5) which either safety the back checker or hit and cover in his home board.

His good rolls include (3-1, 2-2, 3-2, 3-3 and 6-4) which either leave only indirect shots, or a single shot. he exception is 3-3 which leaves a little more than a single shot, but in the process, hits and makes another point in his board which enhance his game winning and gammon chances.

On thirteen rolls White is in fair shape as he only leaves a single direct shot as well as an indirect shot. Those numbers include (4-1, 5-1, 4-2, 5-2, 4-3, 5-3). I also include 4-4 as a fair shake even though it leaves a double shot, as White will win a gammon if he is missed.

Another nine times, White will roll a poor shake where he will leave a double shot. Those rolls include (6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-6 and 5-4). Taking a look at (6-6) it’s a great shot if you are missed, but you will be hit 75% of the time after this highly volatile roll.

So if you look at the breakdown between “great, good, fair and poor” rolls, the ratio is “6-great, 8-good, 13-fair, and 9 poor”.

That is slightly skewed to the fair to poor end of the spectrum and while this isn’t entirely scientific, for OTB quick analysis it indicates to me that is isn’t quite “too good” but still a double and pass since White already has eight checkers off.

That is indeed the case here although there is no guarantee that if you use this rough guess “great-poor” spectrum analysis you will get the correct action.

What makes it tempting to play on is the fact that Black has two points open in his board. Should White leave a shot and then be hit, he still has a reasonable chance to escape and win the game with some small gammon aspirations still available.


Neil Kazaross passes.

This is a huge pass for me since while I win enough games to take, I get gammoned too often when I don’t hit. Hitting also doesn’t come close to guaranteeing a win. Yet my opponents don’t have a good enough game to risk playing on, and they will be unhappy to be hit especially if they roll something that hits me and I then can pick up more than one checker.


USBGF Members win one point, and lead 10-away/11-away.



Neil Kazaross: 62 24/18 13/11
USBGF Members: 66 24/18(2) 13/7*(2)
Neil Kazaross: 52 b/20 13/11
USBGF Members: 22 7/5*(2) 6/4(2)
Neil Kazaross: 44 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 135
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--BBC-C---cCb--cBe------:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBaD--a----aa-----bbbb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:38.22% (G:10.25% B:1.11%)38.14% (G:10.22% B:1.22%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:61.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)61.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities-0.119-0.237
Cubeful Equities
played No double:-0.271±0.009 (-0.280..-0.261)
     Double/Take:-0.789 (-0.519)±0.017 (-0.807..-0.772)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.271)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 70582678
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 41 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] No Double
[ 5] Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

We are ahead in the race, but the good news ends there. Neil is well diversified in the outfield and 21, 22 and 23 leave an immediate shot by exposing another blot.

I order to double, we would have to be on the 23 point with our 4 checkers on the 4 point moved to our 3 point or 1 point and even then it would still be a take.

To use the Value Equation I would give us = Race 2 + Prime 0 + Blitz -3 + Contact -5 = -6. This would be a bad double.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: No Double

A good reference position to remember is when White (for example) has eight checker off and is closed out he is about 50/50 to win cubeless.

That assumes White’s remaining six checkers are on the ace and deuce with no gaps and no additional blots. It also assumes Black has a closed board with spares on his high points spread out.

What does that position have to do with the position in question today?

Well there are two dramatic differences in that ideal reference position which will alter the winning percentage of White.

The first on is in Black’s favor. Instead of having four on his ace-point and two on his two-point, he has two on his two-point and four on his four-point which is an extra twelve pips to bear off.

Now I don’t know exactly how those extra pips translate to extra shakes needed to bear off all of your checkers and how that impacts your winning percentage, but assuming perfect efficiency, twelve pips is one and a half rolls.

So I’m assuming with less than optimal efficiency that would be in the neighborhood of two additional shakes to bear off all of your checkers which will alter White’s winning percentage in a dramatic but yet undetermined fashion.

The second variable in determining White’s chances is the fact that Black has his deuce-point open with five checkers to bring around to board in an attempt to close White out.

Since Black doesn’t have any attackers in the vicinity of his home board, White can come in with a deuce and roll a big double (5-5) or (6-6) and potentially escape and win a gammon.

How often that happens is also a chore to determine.

What I’m getting at is that when you get to a position that varies from your typical reference position you’re going to have to do a lot of guess work when it comes to assessing how multiple variables impact the chance from the original reference position.

One thing I do not over the board, but after I get to such an unusual position is develop a four square of reference positions that all tie the position in question to a known reference position.

In this case, the two variables are the placement of White’s checkers from his four-point to his ace-point and the other variable to chance is the five loose blots for Black to close the board out and place his spare checkers in a decent place.

What will result is four positions that can be labeled A1, A2, B1, B2.


Position A1

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127

             
Unlimited Game
              pip: 45
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-aBaD–a—-aa—–bbbb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:39.28% (G:10.39% B:1.26%)39.36% (G:10.51% B:1.27%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:60.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)60.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities-0.098-0.190
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.197
Double/Take:-0.643 (-0.446)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.197)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Position A2

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57

             
Unlimited Game
              pip: 45
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=–B-D————–cccbbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:35.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)35.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:64.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)64.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities-0.293-0.584
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.501
Double/Take:-1.112 (-0.611)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.501)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Position B1

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124

             
Unlimited Game
              pip: 33
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-DBaa–a—-aa—–bbbb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:55.15% (G:12.79% B:0.86%)55.10% (G:12.69% B:0.86%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:44.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)44.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.240+0.475
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.302
Double/Take:+0.157 (-0.145)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.698)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Position B2

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57

             
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
              pip: 33
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-DB—————-cccbbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:49.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)49.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:50.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)50.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities-0.009-0.022
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.069
Double/Beaver:-0.793 (-0.724)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.069)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 28.8%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

A1 is the position in question and B2 is the known reference position.

“A” being White’s existing position and “B” being White’s position from the known “reference position”.

“1” being Blacks existing position and “2” being Black’s position from the known reference position.

So you will then have two new reference positions, A2 and B1.

“A2” will be White’s position from the game in question and Black having a closed board with spares in good spots.

“B1” will be White’s position from the known reference position and Black’s position from the game in question.

From there you will have more evidence to make an attempt to interpolate how the two variables interact with each other and you should have a better idea how to assess equity and how small (or in this case) large changes impact overall equity in the position.

Ideally I would rather have the independent variables not be so dramatically different from the original position, but if the existing position is that far from your known reference position you might be forced to take a leap of faith in your ability to make those mental changes from what you know to what you theorize.

Since in the best scenario for White (“B1”) he’s only 55%, you can infer that the original position can’t be a double.



USBGF Members: 44 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBaD--a----aa-----bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller++18/16 12/11eq: +0.192
Player:
Opponent:
60.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.75% (G:9.97% B:1.18%)
2.playedXG Roller++18/15eq: +0.191 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
60.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.74% (G:9.78% B:1.21%)
3.XG Roller++22/20 18/17eq: +0.191 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
60.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.59% (G:9.59% B:1.09%)
4.XG Roller++22/20 12/11eq: +0.187 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
60.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.66% (G:9.85% B:1.08%)
5.xgXG Roller++18/17 12/10eq: +0.182 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
60.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.94% (G:10.01% B:1.19%)
6.XG Roller++22/19eq: +0.181 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
59.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.05% (G:9.63% B:1.00%)
7.XG Roller++12/9eq: +0.177 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
60.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.95% (G:10.13% B:1.24%)
8.XG Roller++13/10eq: +0.173 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
59.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.04% (G:10.19% B:1.20%)
9.XG Roller++18/17 13/11eq: +0.166 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
59.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.29% (G:10.40% B:1.23%)
10.XG Roller++18/16 13/12eq: +0.157 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
59.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.43% (G:10.49% B:1.12%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/15.

My checkers are fine where they are on midpoints, and I want to keep both checkers back in my opponents’ board for now in case they enter poorly. After 18/15, my 44 can be used to hit them if the hop with 52 and my 61 can hit them if the hop with 62. This seems to give the best coverage.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 124
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBaD-----a-aa-----bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:44:0:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedXG Roller++22/10 15/11eq: +0.252
Player:
Opponent:
60.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.18% (G:6.88% B:0.73%)
2.xgXG Roller++22/14 15/11 12/8eq: +0.244 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
60.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.31% (G:7.38% B:0.87%)
3.XG Roller++22/14 15/11 13/9eq: +0.232 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
60.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.61% (G:7.17% B:0.70%)
4.XG Roller++22/10 12/8eq: +0.218 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
60.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.80% (G:7.63% B:0.84%)
5.XG Roller++22/18 15/11 13/9 12/8eq: +0.218 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
60.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.73% (G:7.94% B:0.90%)
6.XG Roller++22/6eq: +0.214 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
59.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.35% (G:7.49% B:0.79%)
7.XG Roller++22/14 15/7eq: +0.207 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
59.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.12% (G:8.20% B:0.97%)
8.XG Roller++22/10 13/9eq: +0.199 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
59.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.64% (G:7.57% B:0.77%)
9.XG Roller++22/14 13/9 12/8eq: +0.198 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
59.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.31% (G:7.96% B:0.93%)
10.XG Roller++22/14 13/5eq: +0.194 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
59.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.67% (G:7.85% B:0.79%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays .

I can’t reasonably keep both checkers back anymore. 22/10 15/11 gives me quadruple coverage if they hop and 4 builders for my 7 and 8 points.



USBGF Members: 31 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 108
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB-D-------aaaa---bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:11:0:0:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedXG Roller++12/8eq: +0.258
Player:
Opponent:
60.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.23% (G:6.69% B:0.72%)
2.XG Roller++11/8 10/9eq: +0.248 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
60.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.30% (G:7.14% B:0.84%)
3.XG Roller++10/6eq: +0.245 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
60.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.65% (G:6.90% B:0.71%)
4.XG Roller++13/9eq: +0.235 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
60.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.75% (G:6.89% B:0.68%)
5.XG Roller++13/12 11/8eq: +0.231 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
60.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.78% (G:6.91% B:0.65%)
6.XG Roller++13/11 10/8eq: +0.230 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
60.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.88% (G:7.20% B:0.70%)
7.XG Roller++11/7eq: +0.196 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
59.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.62% (G:7.87% B:0.96%)
8.XG Roller++12/9 11/10eq: +0.191 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
58.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.14% (G:7.10% B:0.66%)
9.XG Roller++12/9 10/9eq: +0.190 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
58.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.26% (G:7.06% B:0.62%)
10.XG Roller++13/12 10/7eq: +0.173 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
58.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.08% (G:8.10% B:0.83%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/8.

As my checkers continue to get pushed forward, I think I should try to make my 8 point. I’ll risk 12/8 noting that I have quite a few return shots if I get hit. This checker is also useful to hit on the 2 point.



USBGF Members: 41 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 104
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB-D-------a-aa-a-bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller++13/12 10/8eq: +0.297
Player:
Opponent:
61.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.54% (G:5.04% B:0.48%)
2.playedXG Roller++11/8eq: +0.288 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
61.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.54% (G:5.37% B:0.50%)
3.XG Roller++13/12 11/9eq: +0.242 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
60.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.66% (G:6.43% B:0.70%)
4.XG Roller++13/12 8/6eq: +0.227 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
59.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.36% (G:6.39% B:0.64%)
5.XG Roller++10/9 8/6eq: +0.224 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
59.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.31% (G:6.73% B:0.72%)
6.XG Roller++10/7eq: +0.222 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
60.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.87% (G:7.59% B:0.97%)
7.XG Roller++13/10eq: +0.213 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
59.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.54% (G:6.92% B:0.67%)
8.XG Roller++8/5eq: +0.207 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
59.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.78% (G:6.59% B:0.61%)
9.XG Roller++13/11 10/9eq: +0.204 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
59.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.60% (G:7.46% B:0.74%)
10.XG Roller++11/9 10/9eq: +0.196 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
58.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.01% (G:7.38% B:0.69%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/8.

10/8 covers the 8 point per plan, and then I don’t see much difference between the ones. 11/10 looks to my eye to be a tad more diversified than 13/12 so that is my ace. Both plays leave me 30 shots if they hop with 52 (assuming my counting is correct).



USBGF Members: 61 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB-D-------a--a-b-bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:41:0:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedXG Roller++13/12 10/6eq: +0.289
Player:
Opponent:
61.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.79% (G:4.76% B:0.45%)
2.XG Roller++10/5eq: +0.276 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
60.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.14% (G:4.62% B:0.39%)
3.XG Roller++13/8eq: +0.265 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
60.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.53% (G:4.74% B:0.39%)
4.XG Roller++13/9 10/9eq: +0.242 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
59.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.30% (G:4.74% B:0.40%)
5.XG Roller++13/9 8/7eq: +0.205 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
59.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.34% (G:7.44% B:0.87%)
6.XG Roller++13/12 8/4eq: +0.202 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
58.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.14% (G:5.91% B:0.57%)
7.XG Roller++10/6 8/7eq: +0.187 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
59.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.90% (G:7.52% B:0.88%)
8.XG Roller++10/9 8/4eq: +0.182 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
58.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.51% (G:6.51% B:0.77%)
9.XG Roller++8/3eq: +0.180 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
58.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.51% (G:6.63% B:0.76%)
10.XG Roller++24/19eq: +0.180 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
58.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.75% (G:5.34% B:0.42%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12 10/6.

Chance to pick up a 2nd blot are becoming less as I am forced to advance. But I still will hang back as a 21 entry or worse yet a 22 gives me a strong cube. 13/12 10/6 looks normal and diversified.



USBGF Members: 32 b/23 4/1*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
             
11 point match
              pip: 40
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aAB-C--------a---b-cbbbAb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:65.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)65.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:34.64% (G:6.80% B:0.52%)34.28% (G:6.77% B:0.49%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.232+0.481
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.348
     Double/Take:+0.271 (-0.078)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.652)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I think that the other blotting entries gave me a fine cube, but here as I cannot wait on the ace point for more chances to pick up the blot while attacking on my 2 point and noting that I may experience the horror of cubing and dancing, I clearly have no double.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
             
11 point match
              pip: 40
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aAB-C--------a---b-cbbbAb-:0:0:-1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 4/2*eq: -0.057
Player:
Opponent:
54.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.77% (G:15.02% B:1.35%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 12/10eq: -0.106 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
48.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
51.65% (G:7.91% B:0.35%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/22 6/4eq: -0.116 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
47.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
52.07% (G:8.51% B:0.47%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/20eq: -0.126 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
47.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
52.25% (G:8.27% B:0.40%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 4/2*.

I think it is time to let the fun start, since I will win almost every game where I can pick up a second checker. If I don’t hit, then they escape with 5’s and only blot with 32 and 11 and I am often forced to attack and take risks next turn.

Hitting will of course lose more gammons, but I think it brings an adequate number of extra wins to be worth the risk.



USBGF Members: 64 b/21*/15


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
             
11 point match
              pip: 32
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aABaC--------a-A-b-cb-bab-:0:0:-1:33:0:0:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays b/19 12/9 8/5.

Bar/19 12/9 8/5 gives me coverage and builders and diversification.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 32
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABaC-a--------Aaa-cc-bab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-09-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 59
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dBBDCC------a----abbab-b-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/4 5/Offeq: +1.287
Player:
Opponent:
81.73% (G:55.42% B:7.99%)
18.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.280...+1.295) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout15/Off 4/2eq: +1.245 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
80.38% (G:54.64% B:7.70%)
19.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.238...+1.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37534731
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 6/4 5/0
[12] 5/0 4/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 6/4 5/0

This one is fairly obvious to me. If your objective in bearing off against an ace-point game is to clear points, by stripping your six point you are preparing to meet that goal in doing that.

And as a bonus, by making the right play (5-off, 6-4) you leave fewer immediate shots in the process.

If you make the second best play (5-off, 4-2) you leave a shot on seven numbers your following roll (6-3, 5-4, 6-5 and 6-6), whereas if you strip the six-point you only leave a shot on four numbers (6-5) and (5-4).

Now it’s true that (6-5) leaves a double shot, but even if you count that double (which would be excessive), it would still be six shots against seven in favor of the “stripping play”.

So remember that when you can make a play that accomplishes something extra and does it at a lower risk, there is a very good chance that it is the correct move.



Neil Kazaross: 63 24/18 7/4
USBGF Members: 66 6/0(2) 5/0(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 30
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cBBE--a-----a-----bbbb-b-:0:0:-1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout124/18eq: -1.342
Player:
Opponent:
19.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.70% (G:60.38% B:9.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.345...-1.338) - [63.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 18/16eq: -1.343 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
19.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.60% (G:60.25% B:10.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.346...-1.339) - [35.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 57 minutes
3.xgRollout124/20 12/10eq: -1.346 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
19.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.76% (G:60.45% B:10.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.350...-1.343) - [1.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
4.Rollout118/16 12/8eq: -1.353 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
19.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.29% (G:59.69% B:12.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.356...-1.349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
5.Rollout218/14 12/10eq: -1.357 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
19.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.61% (G:59.89% B:11.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.366...-1.348) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 06 seconds
6.Rollout218/12eq: -1.361 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
19.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.61% (G:59.84% B:12.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.369...-1.352) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 15 seconds
7.Rollout212/6eq: -1.383 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
18.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
81.09% (G:60.23% B:12.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.390...-1.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58924421
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58924421
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/18.

Any reasonable 2 after I play 24/20 should be fine, but I’ll continue out to the 18 point just to be better situated to save a backgammon if I roll very small and also to have 66 play a bit better for the gammon save (although it seems I may need several 66’s). I can worry about diversifying in the outfield after I hit a blot next turn.



USBGF Members: 63 4/0 3/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 23
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBAD--b-----a-----bbbb-b-:0:0:-1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout124/22* 18/13eq: +0.269
Player:
Opponent:
61.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.33% (G:10.21% B:1.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.258...+0.280) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout124/22* 22/17eq: +0.225 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
60.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.37% (G:11.00% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.215...+0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 26 seconds
3.Rollout124/22* 12/7eq: +0.151 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
59.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.47% (G:13.16% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.140...+0.163) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout124/19 24/22*eq: +0.070 (-0.199)
Player:
Opponent:
56.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.89% (G:12.55% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.060...+0.080) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58924421
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22* 18/13.

I want to be able to hit on the outerboard points that they could enter and hop to. I also want a double shot if they enter with 22 or 21. So I’ll play 24/22* 18/13.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
             
11 point match
              pip: 45
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBaD--a----aa-----bbbb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 64
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=acBBDDC------a----bbb-b-b-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout16/3 5/3eq: +1.382
Player:
Opponent:
83.19% (G:59.80% B:8.99%)
16.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.378...+1.386) - [99.5%]
Duration: 6 hours 51 minutes
2.playedRollout15/Offeq: +1.375 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
82.04% (G:59.95% B:10.22%)
17.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.372...+1.379) - [0.5%]
Duration: 7 hours 07 minutes
3.Rollout26/3 4/2eq: +1.357 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
82.20% (G:59.15% B:9.36%)
17.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+1.347...+1.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
4.Rollout25/3 5/2eq: +1.309 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
81.07% (G:57.84% B:8.84%)
18.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+1.300...+1.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
5.Rollout26/4 5/2eq: +1.301 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
80.76% (G:57.24% B:9.02%)
19.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.293...+1.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37534731
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37534731
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 5/0
[20] 6/3 4/2
[ 1] 6/3 5/3
[ 1] 5/2 4/2


Grant Hoffman recommends: 5/0

Over the board I would look and see that 6/3 5/3 leaves blotting rolls 66 and 65 next time and it takes no checkers off.

5/Off leaves no shots and takes a checker off. This is the play I would make. I know we want to start clearing the 6 point with 6/3 5/3 but those 3 bad numbers makes 5/Off my choice.

After making my choice I did a small rollout and XG prefers 6/3 5/3 by 0.011. So I moved Neil’s checkers 7/4(2) giving him a 5 point board and now 5/Off comes out slightly ahead as it wins more Gammons. In the original position, I did not fully appreciate Neil’s weak board and 4 point gap in his board. They give me freedom to clear the 6 point now. Note that these were 2k rollouts done quickly.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: 5/0

In general when you are bearing off against an ace-point game you should make clearing your back points a higher priority than taking checkers off.

In a reversal of my, “can you make a point”, here the objective is, “can you break a point”. Well unless you’re prepared to leave a direct shot, the answer is no.

And if you can’t break a point, can you “prepare” to break a point. That would be accomplished by stripping the outside point (if your ambition is to break your six-point).

You can prepare to break the outside point by stripping the six-point. That can be accomplished in two ways.

Choice A is to play (6-3, 6-4). That move prepares to clear the six-point and only leaves a shot if you roll (6-5) or (6-6).

Choice B is to play (6-3, 4-2). That play also prepares to clear the six-point and leaves shots on (6-5) or (4-4).

To me, if the choice is between these two plays then there is no choice.

Choice A (6-3, 6-4) leaves shots on three numbers, just like choice B, but when White leaves a shot with 6-6, he gets four checkers off, whereas after 4-4 having made “choice B”, he gets only two or three checkers off.

And not only that, White will have a gap on the four-point which is much worse than boxes after choice A, where White has cleared both the six and five-points.

Having said all that, “Choice C” (5-off) takes a checker off and has no immediate bad numbers on the next roll.

Why isn’t a play that leaves no shots on the next roll superior to the play that leaves three shots?

I can’t exactly say for sure but what I can say is that had I not studied these types of positions I would have played “Choice C”.

It’s extremely close and it’s somewhat optional.

The lesson to be learned here is that it’s approximately worth risking three shots to prepare to clear the six-point against an ace-point game.

That could be changed if Black’s position were more solid in that if White left a shot and was hit he stood a much greater chance of losing the game.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 59
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=acBBDCC------a----bbb-b-b-:0:0:-1:31:0:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 7/4eq: -1.330
Player:
Opponent:
17.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
82.79% (G:57.12% B:8.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.339...-1.322) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout1Bar/24 12/9eq: -1.358 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
16.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
83.30% (G:57.86% B:8.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.366...-1.351) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37534731
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 7/4.

7/4 slots my 4 point which I would love to make in case I get a hit, or in case my opponents roll very awkwardly and get scared and cash due to my strong board. Making the 4 point is more important than worrying about potential pip wastage since I may be forced to waste anyhow if I cannot soon escape from the 24 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 59
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dBBDCC------a----abbab-b-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=abBBDCB------b----bbbAbAb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:74.31% (G:35.01% B:3.90%)73.95% (G:34.95% B:4.36%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:25.69% (G:3.56% B:0.12%)26.05% (G:3.59% B:0.14%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.847+1.716
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.953 (-0.047)±0.008 (+0.944..+0.961)
     Double/Take:+1.474 (+0.474)±0.013 (+1.460..+1.487)
     Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2030510
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] No Double
[16] Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

Recently I have been trying to use the Value Equation for doubling, proposed in Marc Olsen’s two books.

the Value Equation = Race + Prime + Blitz + Contact. These are the 4 ways to win at Backgammon. You give each factor a relative rating compared to your opponent.

We are ahead in the race so give Race +3

We have a better prime as Neil cannot prime so I would give Prime +2

Blitz, I would give +1 as although we cannot close Neil out, we can score a high number of Gammons by sending more checkers back

Contact favours us as Neil has TMP.

So in all 4 areas we have an advantage meaning we have to be too good to double at a NMS.

Yes an immediate 33 is bad for us, but it is survivable.

Now let’s look at Woolsey’s law. Would I take this as Neil? No way, I would be relieved to have been doubled and drop.

So I will go with Too Good to Double.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: No Double

You can win a gammon here. You can also get very unlucky and roll 3-3 and probably lose the game.

I’d play on here although you might in some sequences that you will go from “too good” to “double take” if Brown enters with 1-6.

What I do in a situation like this is go through my numbers and grade them in four categories. Great, good, fair and poor. If there are a significant number of “great and good” numbers compared to the “fair and poor” numbers then I’ll consider “playing on”.

In this case any number that escapes one or both back checkers but doesn’t force White to break his board is “great or good”. Any number that doesn’t escape one or both checkers is “fair or poor”.

Ten numbers don’t escape and (5-3), which does escape forces White to weaken a spare checker on his prime.

In addition, Black doesn’t have any additional blots to pick up which would otherwise enhance White’s gammon opportunities.

Still, I’d take a shake for two reasons. First for all of the reasons stated previously of your ability to potentially win a gammon and the second reason which isn’t too common and a bit subtle.

That second reason is that on some occasions your position deteriorates from “too good” or “double/huge pass” to “double/pass”. On some of those occasions your opponent might take a drop.

So even if a position isn’t quite “too good”, by “playing on” you might get them to make an incorrect decision.



USBGF Members: 54 21/12


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 88
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=abBBDCB-----Ab----bbb-bAb-:0:0:-1:41:0:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 12/8eq: -1.090
Player:
Opponent:
23.05% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
76.95% (G:38.08% B:5.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.097...-1.083) - [100.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 7/3eq: -1.171 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
18.20% (G:1.07% B:0.03%)
81.80% (G:38.47% B:4.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.177...-1.164) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37534731
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 12/8.

After entering bar/24 I have a choice of two 4’s. I am not sure which one loses more gammons, but I do know which one wins more games, and that is 12/8 not ruining my frontal position.



USBGF Members: 66 23/17*/5 12/6
Neil Kazaross: 54 no play

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 64
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=acBBDDC------a----bbb-b-b-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 104
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBCCBA-----b----bbbabAbA:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout1Bar/21* 7/4eq: +0.947
Player:
Opponent:
73.26% (G:34.41% B:4.16%)
26.74% (G:4.09% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.939...+0.954) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21* 5/2eq: +0.928 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
70.45% (G:33.69% B:4.11%)
29.55% (G:5.45% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.924...+0.933) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2030510
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] b/21* 7/4
[ 3] b/21* 5/2


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21* 7/4

Another easy decision, we hit with the 4 then ask ourselves is there any reason to play 5/2? I cannot think why we would want to play so deep and leave Neil a 61 from the bar. Therefore I would play 7/4.

Neil has TMP here, and even if he rolls a 1 he is in terrible shape. If he rolls a 41 here he would have to play 12/8 keeping his 3 prime (7 to 5) and hoping we roll 33 and crash our board leaving a shot.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: b/21* 7/4

Great, an easy one where I can relax my weary brain.

So the hit is forced and you have a three to play. If you had a reason to save 4’s or 5’s you could consider playing 5-2 with the three, but White already can exit Black’s board with those numbers so there are two good reasons to lift (7-4).

The first and most obvious reason is that you don’t want to get hit with (6-1). There’s just no benefit for you to keep a checker on your bar-point since it would be a very long time before you could even make it, and even if you could, you probably would just want to bear in your checkers on top of the prime with as good a distribution as you could manage.

And that brings us to the second point. By playing 5-2, you weaken your distribution which in the long term should see you winning fewer games and fewer gammons.



Neil Kazaross: 43 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 141
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=abBBDCB------b----bbbAbAb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 104
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBCCBA-----b----bbbabAbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:56.04% (G:22.12% B:2.23%)55.76% (G:22.28% B:2.38%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:43.96% (G:15.47% B:0.63%)44.24% (G:15.45% B:0.61%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.206+0.414
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.184±0.010 (+0.175..+0.194)
     Double/Take:+0.062 (-0.122)±0.015 (+0.047..+0.077)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.816)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2030510
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] No Double
[ 3] Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

I want to double (as we are playing Neil) but cannot. Let’s look at PRaT :-

  • Race: > 10% so 1
  • Position: a pure 5 point board so 0.5
  • Threats: 1

But our checker is on the bar so -0.5 and we have a blot on our 7 point so -0.5.

Add this up and it is 1 + 0.5 + 1 – 0.5 – 05 = 1.5, therefore No Double.

Just moving our 7 point checker 7/6 would mean we have 2 out of 3 so I would double then.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: No Double

Sad to say, I looked at the xG rollout before I answered the problem. I can’t objectively say what I would have done, but let’s talk about the parameters of the position anyway.

White is on roll and can hit with 12 numbers. If he hits he’ll be well on his way to a win and a potential gammon.

If he stays out I wouldn’t say that Black had a double so the temptation to cube for White is intriguing.

If the checker on White’s bar-point were on his six-point for example then I believe it would be a double since he wouldn’t have to fear the tempo reversal when he fanned and Black popped out with a six.

However in the actual game White has some concern when he stays out as Black can either hit and escape while hitting or cover his four-point with 25 numbers, and when you add 5-2 and 5-5 that make the two-point, that’s 28 numbers that do something pretty positive for Black.

So the final observation and it’s not an easy one to do over the board, is that if you have a position that’s volatile two ways and neither side on roll is over 60% it doesn’t appear to be a double at an even score.

This might be a catch all rule of thumb, but experiment with a variety of different positions to see if that is the case.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 104
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBCCBA-----b----bbbabAbA:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-ABCBCa---AbB----bbbabAb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout113/5 11/7* 6/2eq: +1.638
Player:
Opponent:
91.21% (G:75.94% B:2.95%)
8.79% (G:1.22% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.633...+1.644) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout113/9(2) 11/7* 6/2eq: +1.620 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
90.73% (G:73.52% B:2.94%)
9.27% (G:1.09% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.615...+1.625) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout113/9 11/7* 7/3 6/2eq: +1.555 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
89.30% (G:70.86% B:2.75%)
10.70% (G:1.49% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.549...+1.562) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 51 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2030510
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 13/5 11/7* 6/2
[10] 13/9(2) 11/7* 6/2
[ 3] 13/9 11/7*/3 6/2


Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/5 11/7* 6/2

We rolled one of our jokers. Over the board, some players just make the ‘natural’ move that feels right to them. If it is second best it is probably not wrong by much, right? Well throwing away equity is bad, especially if taking just a little more time means we get to the right answer.

In this case I would make the part of the move that I know is correct. Here that is three of the fours : 11/7* 6/2 then 13/9. I would then look at the board and weigh up 9/5 which gives me another attacker if Neil enters one checker or 13/9 making Neil’s 11 reply even weaker. Mary had a saying ‘If you have to choose between blah and going for the throat – go for the throat’. I apologise to Mary if I have mis-quoted it.

One of the faults in my play is I can be too aggressive so here I am looking to see if there is any reason not to play 9/5. I want to keep Neil from covering or moving his 4 point blot, I want to score a Gammon so I will go with 9/5 and if Neil rolls 11, then that’s life. Again, in a chouette I would suggest this move but not push it as it should be close.


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax:

Would you like chocolate on your peanut butter or would you like peanut butter in your chocolate.

Here you have a delicious 4-4 to play as you accomplish most of your goals in one roll.

The only thing remaining is to hit the third checker, escape your back piece and close your board.

While you can’t do anything about closing your board or hitting the third checker on this move, you can enhance your chances of closing the board by bringing a third builder to the five-point after hitting and closing your two-point.

By making the “bold” play of (6-2, 11-7*, 13-5) White leaves himself vulnerable to 1-1 which would enter both checkers from the bar but also hit White on his mid-point.

If you make the “safe” play then Black will be able to hit you on his two-point and have a shot at getting back into the game. However only barely, as White can double and it’s super strong, almost a drop.

If you make the “bold” play, bringing the third checker to the five-point and Black rolls 1-1, White is still a favorite, but no longer has a double or anything approaching it.

In general I like to play big and go for the win especially when it comes to giving one joker for your opponent, but in this case it’s wrong.

If you play the “bold” way then White has nine numbers to close his board, and should Black enter with one piece he has 33 numbers to hit loose (34 if you count a switching play with 5-5), as only 5-2 would fail to hit loose for White.

If you play the “safe” way, then you only have four numbers to close the board and six numbers (5-2, 5-4 and 4-1) which don’t hit loose at all (plus 5-5 which only switches).

Next time I’ll opt for “M&M’s”


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 124
             
11 point match
              pip: 92
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=b-BBCCBA----bA----bbbabAb-:0:0:-1:11:0:0:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout1Bar/24(2) 13/12*(2)eq: -0.186
Player:
Opponent:
44.01% (G:15.31% B:0.65%)
55.99% (G:22.09% B:2.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.195...-0.177) - [99.9%]
Duration: 33 minutes 21 seconds
2.xgRollout1Bar/24(2) 13/12* 4/3eq: -0.208 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
45.03% (G:14.89% B:0.57%)
54.97% (G:19.62% B:2.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.218...-0.197) - [0.1%]
Duration: 26 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2030510
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays B/24(2) 13/12*(2).

This joker saves me for now! B/24(2) and 13/12* are automatic and now I have to consider whether the leave the 4 point slotted or to lift it with 4/3, creating what is basically a dilly builder, although it can be used to attack on my 2 point if possible. If I am going to leave it slotted then 13/12 is prudent as it leaves me with only 1 blot, cutting down on gammon and backgammon losses. After 13/12, half my rolls make the 4 point next turn if not hit. Also by making the 12 point, I cause my opponents to lose their 6 point if they roll the hitting 44. If I lift the checker then 44 hits me on the 12 point.

The problems with lifting are that I often need the 4 point to have a cube when things go my way. My 4 point also can cause them to enter and then crash with bad rolls in later turns. The problems with slotting are getting hit and after muting the value of their 44 this looks like about 10.5 more shots to me and that is 29% which may be too much vs. a 5 prime board.

But I am going to chance leaving the slot as I want my 4 point and leave only 1 blot. I think it is worth the risk to leave the slot, noting that if I lift I have all sorts of problems if the USBGF Members enter anyhow and I may soon be looking at their cube. Once in a while, my 12 point will cause them to break their board later if they roll some silly blocked double.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 120
             
11 point match
              pip: 104
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBCCBA-----b----bbbabAbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-ABCBCa---AbB----bbbabAb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:85.07% (G:66.80% B:3.11%)85.19% (G:66.88% B:2.99%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:14.93% (G:4.11% B:0.22%)14.81% (G:4.19% B:0.26%)
  Cubeless Equities+1.370+2.798
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.426±0.005 (+1.420..+1.431)
     Double/Take:+2.686 (+1.260)±0.009 (+2.677..+2.695)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.426)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 25.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 44 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] No Double
[13] Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

We have Race, Position and Threats. Score 1 for each or a total of 3. Then add 0.5 for Neil’s checker on the bar giving us 3.5, therefore we have to be Too Good to Double. Our weakness is the duplication of hitting and covering numbers but this is minor.

Note that although it is too Good to Double on this roll, we should be reviewing that choice on subsequent rolls if Neil gets back in the game.

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.co.nz)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.


Steve Sax recommends: No Double

Upon first observation I see an excellent opportunity to go for the gammon. Black has one checker on the bar and White is threatening to send a second and then third checker to the roof.

If White is successful in achieving this tsunami like blitz he will easily win a gammon and in some occasions a backgammon.

And what is good about this particular position in terms of “playing on” is that there isn’t a tremendous amount of risk involved.

For this to backfire, a series of events need to occur.

1) He can’t cover.

2) He is hit.

3) He fails to enter.

How often does that happen in comparison to White successfully at least achieving the first parts of his goal which are to make his two-point and put at least a second Black checker to the roof.

Well to answer that question, first let’s see the success ratio for White.

On his opening 36 rolls, 12 of them I would consider to be “great”. That is, they accomplish two goals I have spoken about previously. Those are that they can hit and cover. If you look at how (2-2, 4-2, 6-2, 4-4, 5-4, 6-4 and 6-5) play they put Black on the ropes and White well on his way to achieve his goals.

Another 19 rolls cover his two-point or in two cases, (3-3 and 6-6) make his bar-point and put a second checker on the bar. I would consider those to be “good” rolls.

And in seven cases (5-1, 6-1, 5-3 and 5-5) White can either make his ace-point or put a second checker on the bar. While those aren’t “poor” rolls, they can be classified as “fair” in that they do accomplish one goal, but no more.

If Black counters by entering in those cases, he has potential to turn the game around, but will need some cooperation from White in that even if Black comes in and hits, White will have to stay out.

There is one variable that seems to make this an issue in the first place and that is one of duplication. Since White can hit with 2’s and 4’s and also cover with those same numbers, there is an illusion of lack of strength in the position, but I think that is just what I stated. An illusion.

Getting back to an earlier question, how much risk is White in if he correctly “plays on”?

If White rolls one of his “great” rolls (hitting and covering) Black only has 1-1 to counter with and even in the worst case, White still is close to a double.

If White rolls one of his “good” rolls and simply covers, Black must enter and hit to even have a chance.

Let’s say White covers with 3-1 as an example. If Black comes in with 1-1 or 2-1 White will have a very strong double. And even if Black enters with 4-1 or 6-1 White will still have a double. In all other cases White will still have a “play on” if Black fans or comes in more weakly.

It’s only when White rolls one of his seven, “fair” rolls that Black has any reasonable chance at all.

Let’s look at the example where White rolls 6-1 and hits (13-7*, 11-10) and Black enters hitting with a deuce. Even in that case, White should double and Black only has a small take.

So realistically, for Black to get back into the game, White has to roll one of his seven “fair” rolls and Black has to counter with a number that enters both checkers, hitting.

That happens (7/36×4/36) or 28/1296, effectively 2% of the time.

And even in those cases, White can come in and hit him back or anchor in Black’s board.

It’s beyond the scope of this writing here to cover all possible three roll sequences (46656) but basically, 98% of the time you’re still playing on or cubing Black out and 2% of the time you have some work to do to recover.

Use “spectrum analysis of numbers” also seen but not identified as such in xG’s dice distribution to attempt to determine how strong your position is when considering cube action, be it “playing on” or simply whether a position is a double, re-double or pass.

If you can get a sense of the skew of “great, good, fair and poor” numbers, it will help you to make better cube decisions.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-ABCBCa---AbB----bbbabAb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 115
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aCCBCa---AbB----bbbab-bA:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 3/2*eq: +0.590
Player:
Opponent:
64.53% (G:42.93% B:2.35%)
35.47% (G:16.88% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.583...+0.597) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 11/10eq: +0.101 (-0.489)
Player:
Opponent:
51.09% (G:25.34% B:1.57%)
48.91% (G:19.89% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.094...+0.108) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.135 (-0.725)
Player:
Opponent:
46.55% (G:22.23% B:1.25%)
53.45% (G:23.71% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.143...-0.127) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 28 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] b/23 3/2*
[ 1] b/23 11/10
[ 1] b/23 6/5


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 3/2*

This is a case of kill or be killed.

If we play safe Neil will attack one of our blots. So even if we were at Gammon Save, I would enter with Bar/23 then hit 3/2*.

I know this duplicates our twos and fours to both hit and cover but we must play to win.


Steve Sax recommends: b/23 3/2*

There is no other choice. The hit is mandatory. Would you rather be the prey or the predator? Nuf sed.



Neil Kazaross: 44 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-ABCBCa---AbB----bbbabAb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-23

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 115
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aCCBCa---AbB----bbbab-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:54.91% (G:32.16% B:1.86%)54.85% (G:32.58% B:1.92%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:45.09% (G:20.92% B:0.60%)45.15% (G:20.92% B:0.57%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.226+0.470
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.104±0.010 (+0.095..+0.114)
     Double/Take:+0.023 (-0.081)±0.016 (+0.007..+0.039)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.896)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 56 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] No Double
[ 3] Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

Lets’s use PRaT here.

I like a 10% race in order to score 1 for the race, so here it is 0.

Position – we have a slightly stronger board in that it is purer than Neil’s, so maybe 0.5.

Threats – yes any 4 plus 22 gives us 1 for threats.

But we need to subtract 0.5 (my rule of thumb) for every checker on the bar; here that is -0.5. This comes to 0 + 0.5 + 1 – 0.5 = 1 so No Double / Take.

Sure I would like to double Neil early but this is not a double. What would make it a double? Moving my 11 point checker back to the 13 point should do the trick. Now I lose less Gammons, and do not need to tidy up that blot if I enter without hitting.

Since Steve mentioned he teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, I also teach there and can be contacted for lessons at grant@hoffman.co.nz


Steve Sax recommends: No Double
I wouldn’t double here. If it were a money game and you needed to activate gammons it might be a double but in a match you don’t have to.

On top of that, White only has 12 numbers to enter and hit the blot on the 21-point. White does have a few more numbers that hit inside his board (2-1) or (2-6) which hits on his own bar-point.

That’s just not enough, at least at this score. If the match score were skewed to where Black was leading then it could easily be a double or if the match was sufficiently short where a doubled gammon impacts the result of the match significantly then it might then be a double.

And since White stays out (16/36) times, he might be facing a very scary re-cube where Black would have 16/36 numbers to close his four-point (plus 5-2) which would make his two-point. That means that if White stays out, Black will be able to close his board half of the time. And on top of that, Black will be able to hit White’s loose blot on the 11-point an additional six times (4-1, 4-2, 4-6).

Since the elements of the position are similar (both sides have a four-point board) and it’s not a double, at a neutral score either White’s position has to be improved somewhat or Blacks position has to be worse in some way for it to be a double for White.

Simply moving White’s blot to any existing point would do the trick. In that case, White could double since he would be in less jeopardy if he stayed out and wouldn’t be facing a re-cube.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 115
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aCCBCa---AbB----bbbab-bA:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-22

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 123
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBCCC----AbB----cbb-b-bA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 5/3eq: +0.426
Player:
Opponent:
61.36% (G:18.02% B:0.93%)
38.64% (G:11.76% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.423...+0.430) - [99.6%]
Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 11/9eq: +0.420 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
61.11% (G:18.59% B:1.00%)
38.89% (G:11.18% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.416...+0.423) - [0.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/21 5/3
[14] b/21 11/9


Paul Weaver:

When I first saw this position, I was confident that B/21 5/3 would be best by a clear margin. My 5184 3-ply XG rollout was won by B/21 5/3, but the margin was a narrow .008, close enough to be considered a tie. B/21 5/3 duplicates Neil’s 54 and minimizes shots, leaving 17 hitters (31 32
33 43 53 63 11 21 22 54). B/21 11/9 leaves 4 additional shots (61 52). Here is one rather obscure advantage of B/21 11/9: If Team is missed and we
then roll 21 31 11 63, we will bring the 9 point blot to safety, which would not happen if it were on the 11 point.

In general, when the two best checker plays are within .015, I believe there is very little point in spending much time studying the position. It is a much more efficient use of our time to study positions we get wrong in which the margin between the two plays is larger.

Finally, I am not confident in my ability to analyze the position when the two best plays are so very close.


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 5/3

We will be ahead in the race by 16 pips after the roll, Therefore we should be playing a racing game plan. So we need to enter on the 21 point preparing to simply escape.

So after that, how do we play the two? If I play it in my inner board, then 5/3 keeping my checkers diversified seems best. I could play 11/9 but I like keeping the checker on the 11 point so a 64 (and to a lesser extend a 55) will let me escape the rear checker and safety it and the checker on the 11 point. In a chouette I would agree to either 5/3 or 11/9.

To clarify, when I write my comments I will write them as soon as I get the position from Jason, and I would make the move as I would over the board with the time pressures of actual play.


Steve Sax recommends: b/21 5/3

Here White has a 4-2 to play and a decision must be made where he should enter. It ends up being a relatively simple problem in my mind since by coming in with a deuce, he has an awkward four to play.

By playing (bar-23), his choices on the four all weaken his position. If he chooses to play (11-7) with the four he is volunteering a direct shot when Black also has a respectable four point board.

If he chooses to play (5-1) with the four, he loses a builder off his prime, and additionally it allows Black to play more aggressive with his checkers regarding escaping and hitting since White not has a blot in his board.

And of course, White is not going to break the mid-point for all of the obvious reasons.

Under other circumstances I’d rather enter on the 23-point than the 21-point because it is out of the “attack zone”. That way, White is less likely to be attacked and can either safety the blot on his 11-point or potentially escape his back checker with a six if not hit.

In this case however, Black already has his ace-point made. That severely mitigates his ability to prime White in and honestly, he must successfully blitz and close out White to secure the win.

So if White does enter on the four-point, how should he play the deuce?

He obviously doesn’t want to lose an active builder so (6-4) is thrown out as a candidate move.

This brings the deuce down to two choices. White can play (11-9), or (5-3).

Why is one play better than the other one?

Well it comes down to simple duplication. By playing (11-9), White can hit and escape a back checker with (6-1) or (5-2). And if you notice, those numbers don’t play constructively on the offensive side of Black’s board.

However if White plays (5-3) with deuce Black can hit him with (5-4) or (6-3 in White’s outfield). As you will notice, those numbers also hit White inside Black’s home board.

The thing here to remember is that not only can you duplicate direct numbers, but you can duplicate indirect numbers as well.

It rolls out super close so there has to be some compensation for White to diversify Black’s indirect numbers. The only thing I can come up with is that all things being equal you would rather have your builders on the higher points than the lower points.

That way you might have the option to play a big number to hit or start your ace-point or move a smaller number on your prime (such as the original suggestion of (5-3) with the deuce.

It affords you a little more flexibility to have your builders on the high points, but honestly not enough in my mind to be a fair tradeoff for the diversification you afford Black by playing (11-9).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 123
             
11 point match
              pip: 107
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bCCBC----AbB----cbbAb-b-:0:0:-1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout123/18 7/4*eq: -0.108
Player:
Opponent:
45.14% (G:20.94% B:0.50%)
54.86% (G:32.33% B:1.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.116...-0.099) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 7/4*eq: -0.158 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
43.61% (G:18.59% B:0.37%)
56.39% (G:25.61% B:2.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.168...-0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/18 7/4*.

This roll gives me good chances to quickly turn an unfavorable position into a very threatening one. 7/4* is basically forced, and then I prefer risking getting crushed by coming off my anchor with 23/18. This threatens my opponents’ other blot and also helps me escape their 4 prime/board. Of course this can blow up in my face and result in 3 checkers closed out, but if I play 13/8 I also am in bad shape when hit.

Also, after 23/18 I am in OK shape if my they enter and can’t hit (23 and 25).


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 115
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aCCBCa---AbB----bbbab-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBCBC----AcC----cbc-b-A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout111/3eq: -0.010
Player:
Opponent:
49.64% (G:14.21% B:0.67%)
50.36% (G:10.12% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.014...-0.006) - [94.4%]
Duration: 5 hours 38 minutes
2.playedRollout113/5eq: -0.014 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
49.36% (G:15.41% B:0.66%)
50.64% (G:10.57% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.018...-0.011) - [5.6%]
Duration: 5 hours 36 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/5
[11] 11/3


Steve Sax recommends: 13/5

Backgammon is a game of tradeoffs. In this case, you can make a play that is riskier (13-5) but has a stronger overall position, or (11-3) which is safer but slightly less constructive.

My instinct is to play (13-5) as White appears to have stronger overall winning chances if he is not hit. The obvious drawback is that White is hit with (5-4) and (6-3) which do little else around the board.

However, even though (5-4) and (6-3) are good rolls for Black, they are not without risk. If White is hit, he can come back and hit Black either on the 11-point or inside his board with 13 return shots (as 4-3) would be played (bar-21, 24-21) or it would be 15 return shots.

The play is close according to an xG rollout although the conservative (11-3) is slightly better mathematically.

That speaks volumes to the better constructive nature of (13-5) as it keeps builders on the high points and gives White a good (6-4) if he is not hit.

Additionally, White will be able to play (6-5) without leaving a direct shot if he makes the more robust play of (13-5) in the first place.

As a general rule, I think it’s better to make a play that doesn’t turn weak rolls for your opponent into good rolls unless you put yourself into a much stronger position going forward.

It was almost the case in this point, but not quite. My move of (13-5) is only a small error but an error nonetheless.

Steve Sax, instructor for BLC “The Backgammon Learning Center” gives individual or group backgammon lessons to players of all skill levels. Contact him at backgammonplayer@msn.com.


Paul Weaver recommends: 11/3

Before writing my analysis of positions here, I want to make it clear that I always use XG beforehand to tell me what is going on. Neil and those who participate in the voting are not allowed to do this, but it is my understanding from Jason that I am allowed to do so. I don’t think I would consent to do this column if I were not allowed to consult, but Grant said he did not, so I want to state that I will be using XG before writing.

There are only two candidate plays, 11/3 and 13/5. The safe 11/3 has a slight drawback — Team’s next 51 42 play a bit awkwardly and 65 will leave a shot. The disadvantage of the builder/blot play 13/5 is that it leaves 4 shots this turn. Also, if Team rolls a good jumping number (61 43 53 63) next turn, Team does not need the distraction of the blot in the outfield while trying to bring his back checker to safety. The 11 point blot has almost no value as a builder. Team should try to escape with 53 next turn instead of making the 8 point. Team gains a bit by making the 7 point with 64, but has to leave a 13-number shot.

In yesterday’s position, Team was justified in leaving 6 outfield shots and three blots, but in today’s position, Team should not leave 4 outfield shots even though it leaves only one blot.

P.S. Within a minute of sending the above draft, as I was on my way to play the piano, this weird thought (don’t know where it came from) just happened to pop into my head: Team’s next 66 plays much better after 11/3 than after 13/5. Take a look. After 11/3, Team’s next 66 will allow us to make and keep the 7 point, but after 13/5, Team’s next 66 does not allow us to end up with the 7 point. Could not focus on my piano playing until I sent in this update.


Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/3

Before any move I consider 3 things:- 1) what is the score? 2) where is the cube 3) where do I stand in the race?

Here we are ahead in the race by 27 pips after the roll. We would love to just get into a race and win the race.

There only seems to be two moves worth considering: 13/5 and 11/3.

13/5 leaves Neil 4 rolls that hit, 63 and 54. Do we gain enough by this move to compensate for those shots? No.

Playing 11/3 gives us 11 checkers in the zone ready to attack if need be (if Neil runs a checker), leaves only 1 blot and plays to a racing game plan. So 11/3 is the move that I would make.

If however we were at Gammon Go then 13/5 would get my vote.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 112
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBCCC----AcB----cbc-b-A-:0:0:-1:44:0:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout113/1* 5/1eq: -0.199
Player:
Opponent:
43.87% (G:13.87% B:0.27%)
56.13% (G:16.86% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.208...-0.190) - [99.8%]
Duration: 38 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout113/9(2) 13/5eq: -0.217 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
44.16% (G:8.23% B:0.27%)
55.84% (G:13.08% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.226...-0.209) - [0.2%]
Duration: 37 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/1* 5/1.

My opponents left me an outfield blot last turn, and since I don’t care for a positional play with this 44, I will attack and make a 4 point board in hopes of later escaping and maybe hitting that blot. So I attack with 13/1* 5/1.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 123
             
11 point match
              pip: 113
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBCCC----AbB----cbb-b-bA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 126
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-BBBC-A---cD---abcb-b-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout113/11 13/9eq: +0.404
Player:
Opponent:
59.33% (G:22.08% B:1.85%)
40.67% (G:12.44% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.394...+0.415) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 8/6eq: +0.366 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
58.19% (G:20.92% B:1.73%)
41.81% (G:10.26% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.356...+0.377) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
3.playedRollout113/11 8/4eq: +0.366 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
58.39% (G:21.00% B:1.81%)
41.61% (G:10.44% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.355...+0.377) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
4.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: +0.352 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
57.97% (G:21.49% B:1.69%)
42.03% (G:11.45% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.342...+0.361) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
5.Rollout113/7eq: +0.349 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
57.09% (G:21.68% B:1.78%)
42.91% (G:13.39% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.336...+0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 13/11 8/4
[17] 13/11 13/9
[ 2] 13/9 6/4
[ 1] 13/7


Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 13/9

I am also new at this and want to say that with my comments I expect that sometimes I will suggest a wrong move, and will not be perfect, that’s ok as I will try to make the move I would over the board.

I look at this position and ask myself what is the most valuable point I could make? Here it is my bar point. I want it but do I want it enough to slot it? No, slotting while split (technically I am not split because I only have 1 checker back but practically this is the same as being split) is rarely a good idea. If we play 13/11 13/9 we will have 4 builders aimed at the bar point. This is good enough. Why make the bar point, that is a priming game plan and we are ahead in the race? The answer is simply we have the timing for a priming game with our opponent having 2 checkers back to our 1.

The other way to think about this is to apply Simborg’s Law – ask yourself what move does my opponent least want us to make – then make it. Here that has to be 13/11 13/9.


Steve Sax recommends: 13/11 13/9

The team decided not to double which doesn’t really impact my decision on how to play the 4-2 although in a different position cube placement could easily determine how I want to make a checker play.

In general when the cube is in the middle or you own it you should tend to play slightly more conservative as you only need to reach a reasonable doubling point and not 100% which would be required if your opponent owned the cube.

In this position I’m looking to do one of the three goals of constructive checker play. Those are; Can I make a point, Can I escape a back checker and, Can I hit an enemy checker.

If you can’t do one of those three then the next best thing is to prepare to achieve one of those goals. In this case it would be to bring builders into place to make the bar point which is of all the points on the board, the one you most want to make.

The play would be (13-11, 13-9). This play has some risks in that it leaves White vulnerable to six fly shots (6-1, 6-2, 6-4) but even with a more conservative play (13-11, 8-4) you’re still leaving two shots. So the increase in shots you are leaving isn’t six shots, but four.

Is it worth leaving four shots in order to give your side a good chance to make the bar-point and get you that much closer to winning the game?

I think so. Your back checker is for the most part out of harms way as he can only be pointed on reasonably by 3-3, 6-5 and 6-6. Well, 6-5 and 6-6 are duplicated as those numbers play better on the other side of the board. And regarding 3-3, Black may indeed choose to make his ace-point with that number, but he would be sacrificing the integrity of his board as he would be relegating his position to a blitz at a significant disadvantage.

That disadvantage would be that he has two checkers back to White’s one, and since White has first strike to come in after such a move is hard pressed to successfully achieve that blitz.

Where Black would benefit from making his ace-point with 3-3 (and I know we’re a bit off the topic here) is that if White stayed out all he would have to do is to split hit back checkers, jump out with a six or better yet, hit one of those six fly shots (assuming White doesn’t enter in the interim.

So back to the main issue, since White’s back checker is safe, all he really has to dodge is for Black to hit the fly shot, roll boxes and to some extent (6-5) and (1-1).

So on 26 occasions, White has an excellent chance of making his bar-point and further solidifying his advantage and getting very close to a cube.

Using the “square law of builder efficiency,” you take the number of builders and square it with itself to see how many numbers will make the bar-point if White is not hit.

There is one proviso, in that you must see what doubles work as there on most occasions at least one double that doesn’t work to make a point.

In this case, builders are “one, two, four, and six away from their target point. You will notice going through the rolls that (1-1, 2-2 and 6-6) make White’s bar-point, but 4-4 does not.

So you subtract that from your “square law of builder efficiency”. 4×4=16 minus one = 15 builders which make your bar-point.

One thing to note however is that if you do play (13-11, 13-9) you strip your mid-point and if you subsequently make your bar-point with (6-1, 6-2 or 6-4) you will be leaving a shot on your mid-point.

That is certainly worth the risk especially since aces are duplicated but it is worth noting as it diminishes the value of your position slightly more than had you an extra active builder on your mid-point.

So in the end, the “big play” seems to be better because it’s constructive and not too much riskier. After all, backgammon is essentially a game of risk versus reward and in this case the builders play seems to fit that bill or reward outranking risk.


Paul Weaver recommends: 13/11 13/9

The best play is 13/11 13/9, bringing down two builders for the 7 point, leaving 6 shots on Team’s side. The position after this play has been made is shown below.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143

             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-b-BBBC-AA-AcB—abcb-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Team is faced with a classic checker-play decision: Are the shots and blots worth the risk? If Neil hits one of Team’s three outfield blots, Team will have 17 return shots (on average) and a stronger board, sometimes including loose hits on the 1 point with 51 52 54. Team should therefore not be afraid of leaving the three outfield blots and Team should not be afraid of an exchange of hits.

After Team plays 13/11 13/9, Neil can hit with roughly 17% of his numbers in the outfield, but he will get hit back almost half the time. In other words, only 9% of the time will Neil hit an outfield blot and not get hit back. Taking the Team’s return shots into consideration, it is certainly worth the risk to leave the 6 shots.

If Team is missed, Team’s jumping 3s are unduplicated. In other words, the 3s that may be used to jump Neil’s prime (63 53 43) are distinct from the numbers that make the 7 point.

After Team plays 13/11 13/9, with which of Neil’s rolls should he attack on his 1 point? He should hit with 66 (his best number by far) 65 33 55.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-BCBC----AcC---abcb-b-A-:0:0:-1:11:0:0:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout124/23(2) 8/7 6/5eq: -0.218
Player:
Opponent:
44.29% (G:9.07% B:0.34%)
55.71% (G:14.39% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.222...-0.214) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 18 minutes
2.Rollout124/23(2) 8/6eq: -0.227 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
44.16% (G:9.33% B:0.34%)
55.84% (G:15.26% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.231...-0.223) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 09 minutes
3.Rollout224/23(2) 5/4(2)eq: -0.239 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
43.86% (G:8.86% B:0.34%)
56.14% (G:16.82% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.248...-0.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
4.Rollout224/23(2) 6/4eq: -0.271 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
44.58% (G:7.85% B:0.33%)
55.42% (G:21.77% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.280...-0.263) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23(2) 8/7 6/5.

Nice roll here! 24/23(2) makes an anchor that is less likely to be primed and 8/7 6/5 keeps my points and builders and is blotless.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 139
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBCBC----AcC----cbc-b-A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 126
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-BBBC-A---cD---abcb-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:62.89% (G:21.58% B:1.76%)63.03% (G:21.54% B:1.78%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:37.11% (G:8.80% B:0.37%)36.97% (G:8.81% B:0.40%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.403+0.823
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.540±0.004 (+0.536..+0.544)
     Double/Take:+0.535 (-0.005)±0.006 (+0.528..+0.541)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.460)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.2%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81180230
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:92.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 hours 43 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] No Double
[ 7] Double


Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

Early in a match against an unknown I will double even if I do not think it is a double to find out how my opponent will react to doubles. So against an unknown I would double here because we have Race (being up 10%), Position (a slightly stronger and purer board) and some threats (not many but some). The threats are hitting with 43 and 61 (not making the bar point). 33 looks good for making the bar point, 63 and 53 escape in to the outfield with our last checker and if it is missed that is great. 64 and 51 look good to me as well. So against most players I would send it over.

We are playing Neil and he is a better player. How do you beat a better player? By being aggressive and increasing the volatility and shortening the match. The longer the match the more mistakes you will make than the better player so use the cube and shorten the match. Also you hoping to get a little lucky.

I would cube here expecting Neil to take.


Steve Sax recommends: Double

I was very torn between doubling and not doubling. In the end I decided to double just in case my opponent might make a mistake and pass.

Within the context of this OLM I might double for another reason. I know that Neil won’t make the mistake and pass but if it is as close as I think it is why not increase the volatility of the match against one of the best players in the world.

Now back to the position. The reason I had such a tough time in deciding whether to double or not is based on PRaT.

First lets discuss PRaT which can also be referred to as Pips, Position and Threats.

1) Pips–White is 17 pips ahead in the race. That’s two whole shakes up should he be able to get his back checker out.

2) Position–White has Black out-boarded 4/3 although Black has his bar-point so it’s not that huge an advantage in relative boardage/prime. White has one checker back and Black has two checkers back… advantage White.

3) Threats/volatility–White’s 6-1 is a great shot although it’s duplicated which diminishes the value of his position in terms of absolute threats.

He can also hit with 4-3 and potentially escape with 5-3 and 6-3.

In addition White can make his bar-point with 3-3 or 6-6. Ideally you want 9-10 market losers to properly send a cube although that can be swayed by the magnitude in which you lose your market.

You won’t lose your market with 3-3 or 6-6 if Black counters with 4-2, 2-2 or 1-1 and you might not lose your market with 1-6 or 3-4 if Black hits a fly shot from the bar.

If you count all potential market losers as absolute market losers we can include (1-6, 3-4, 3-3 and 6-6) with (3-5 and 3-6) as half value to keep it simple. That’s only 8 market losers which is slightly under the threshold of 9.

So after all this analysis I find it to be slightly short of a cube but under tournament conditions I would double if I was playing a superior player or an inferior player who I have a strong read that they might drop with even a modest frequency.


Paul Weaver:

In this prime-vs-prime position, the USBGF Members have these two advantages over Neil: (1) Team has only one checker back, while Neil has two back and (2) Team has a stronger offense, with the best four-point board. The Team clearly has an advantage, but is it enough to double? The XG rollout suggests it is probably a marginal no double. The take is easy; passing would be a quadruple whopper. Even after the rollout, I am still not certain, but this much I know for sure: the worst you can do here is to be wrong by a tiny amount, probably less than .01.

The XG rollout suggests that it is not a double by .005, but XG also tells us that if there is a 1.2% chance your opponent will pass, then the double is justified. Look in the bottom left-hand corner above and you will see the 1.2% in parenthesis.

How do you evaluate this over the board without consulting XG? In my opinion, the best way to learn cube action is to assemble and organize a large number of reference positions. Put this one in your prime-vs-prime folder.

Another helpful way to study cube action is to ask XG to evaluate variations of the position. For example, what would the cube action be above if we took one checker each from Team’s 6 point and 8 point and put both on the 7 point, giving Team a five-prime? What would happen if we then improved Neil’s position by upgrading his 3 point to his 4 point?

I am new at this, so it may take me a while to figure out what format and style to use for this column. I welcome your feedback.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 126
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-BBBC-A---cD---abcb-b-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---dF---abd--b-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.323
Player:
Opponent:
57.99% (G:17.98% B:1.00%)
42.01% (G:13.46% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.313...+0.332) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/10eq: +0.106 (-0.217)
Player:
Opponent:
53.67% (G:13.88% B:0.78%)
46.33% (G:15.69% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.096...+0.116) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout113/9eq: +0.090 (-0.233)
Player:
Opponent:
53.02% (G:15.47% B:0.85%)
46.98% (G:16.16% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.078...+0.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
4.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: -0.001 (-0.324)
Player:
Opponent:
51.28% (G:14.61% B:0.78%)
48.72% (G:18.18% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.012...+0.010) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
5.Rollout124/20eq: -0.003 (-0.326)
Player:
Opponent:
51.05% (G:11.61% B:0.61%)
48.95% (G:16.67% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.013...+0.007) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81180230
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 8/5 6/5


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 6/5

Stepping up with either 24/20 or 24/23 13/10 seems like you are asking to be attacked. Neil has made his three point so is more geared towards an attacking game plan, so stepping up is just helping him to achieve his game plan – not ours.

Sometimes it is not correct to make the 5 point but here making our 5 point has to be correct.



Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5 6/5
USBGF Members: 55 13/3(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 126
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-BBBC-A---dD----bcb-b-A-:0:0:-1:41:0:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout113/8eq: -0.538
Player:
Opponent:
37.00% (G:8.85% B:0.37%)
63.00% (G:21.48% B:1.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.551...-0.525) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: -0.650 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
34.87% (G:8.29% B:0.33%)
65.13% (G:21.49% B:1.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.664...-0.636) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47758368
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8.

If I split, I invite both the cube and a blitz attack (either this turn or later) as I often won’t be able to re-anchor. So I will bring down a builder and 13/8 goes to a point I would like to make and leaves only 2 more shots than 13/9. But those extra 2 shots hardly matter since 61 is duped to both hit and make the bar point.

13/8 is very clear.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 143
             
11 point match
              pip: 126
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b-BBBC-A---cD---abcb-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-17

[Previous][Next]


USBGF Members: 65 24/13
Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7
USBGF Members: 42 8/4 6/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---dF---bbe----A-:0:0:-1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.275
Player:
Opponent:
42.73% (G:13.11% B:0.50%)
57.27% (G:15.58% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.285...-0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.317 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
42.26% (G:11.77% B:0.46%)
57.74% (G:16.13% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.329...-0.305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81180230
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/3.

Here I prefer making my 3 point rather than stripping my mid point and having many checkers close together too soon by pulling down two builders. Note that 52 is blocked so I am only leaving 4 shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---dF---abd--b-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-08-16

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 175
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cCcHD-------------bbbb-a-:1:-1:1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout15/4 2/Offeq: +0.122
Player:
Opponent:
56.11% (G:39.79% B:23.80%)
43.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.117...+0.128) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout15/2eq: +0.106 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
55.28% (G:39.49% B:22.34%)
44.72% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.100...+0.111) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 5/4 2/0
[ 9] 5/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/4 2/0

The ace is forced, 5/4. If there were any serious possibility we could get in trouble and leave a shot with a later 2, then we might consider “smoothing” with 4/2, but we have so many 2s to play from the 4 point that it’s too unlikely to worry about. The bigger deal is to have as many checkers off as possible if we leave a shot and get hit, so that if he succeeds in containing and closing it out, we will have our best chance of still winning the game. 5/4 2/off looks clear.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 175
             
11 point match
              pip: 55
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cBcIC-------------bbbb-a-:1:-1:-1:65:9:9:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout124/19 22/16eq: -0.102
Player:
Opponent:
44.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.08% (G:38.70% B:21.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.104...-0.099) - [55.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 22/17eq: -0.102 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
44.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.11% (G:38.79% B:21.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.104...-0.100) - [32.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.xgRollout124/13eq: -0.103 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
44.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.16% (G:38.66% B:21.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.106...-0.101) - [8.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
4.Rollout222/11eq: -0.107 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
44.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
55.35% (G:38.80% B:22.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.113...-0.101) - [2.5%]
Duration: 13 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/19 22/16.

I think it is now time two move both spares out which makes it virtually certain that I won’t crash even a little bit. I don’t see much difference between the two plays, but 24/19 22/16 looks better diversified that having the checkers next to each other on the 17 and 18 points.



USBGF Members: 55 5/0(3) 4/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 36
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBbH-a--a---------bbbb-a-:1:-1:-1:42:9:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout122/18 19/17eq: -0.392
Player:
Opponent:
30.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.58% (G:52.29% B:38.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.394...-0.389) - [47.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.playedRollout122/18 16/14eq: -0.392 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
30.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.59% (G:52.36% B:38.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.394...-0.389) - [44.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
3.Rollout122/16eq: -0.393 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
30.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.67% (G:52.65% B:38.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.396...-0.391) - [6.1%]
Duration: 53 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout122/20 16/12eq: -0.394 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
30.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.71% (G:52.55% B:38.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.396...-0.392) - [1.7%]
Duration: 59 minutes 55 seconds
5.Rollout122/20 19/15eq: -0.395 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
30.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.77% (G:52.67% B:38.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.398...-0.393) - [0.1%]
Duration: 56 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/18 16/14.

Things are going downhill quickly, but all is not lost. I need to activate my opponents’ blotting aces with 22/18. After that, it hardly matters, but I’ll go with 16/14 to get a checker closer to an enter and hop point if I hit a checker soon. In general the point I want next make here is my bar point.



USBGF Members: 31 4/3*/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 32
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=abB-G-aa---a-------bbbb-a-:1:-1:-1:41:9:9:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 19/15eq: -0.475
Player:
Opponent:
26.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
73.75% (G:56.34% B:42.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.477...-0.473) - [97.5%]
Duration: 59 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 14/10eq: -0.478 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
26.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
73.91% (G:56.28% B:42.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.480...-0.476) - [1.5%]
Duration: 51 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24 18/14eq: -0.478 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
26.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
73.92% (G:56.36% B:42.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.480...-0.476) - [1.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 04 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/20eq: -0.506 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
24.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
75.28% (G:58.66% B:39.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.510...-0.501) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 19/15.

I want this checker to end up on the 22 point for now while retaining the 24 point. The way to get this checker on the bar to the 22 point is to enter on the 24 point. Then 19/15 looks fine and diversified to me.

I don’t want to break the 24 point and activate blotting 3’s as if I miss that shot, it is probably my last shot.



USBGF Members: 65 4/0(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 24
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cB-E--a--aa-------bbbb-a-:1:-1:-1:21:9:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/22 14/13eq: -0.482
Player:
Opponent:
25.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.12% (G:55.76% B:45.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.485...-0.480) - [51.2%]
Duration: 59 minutes 33 seconds
2.xgRollout124/22 18/17eq: -0.483 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
25.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.13% (G:55.89% B:45.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.485...-0.480) - [38.9%]
Duration: 57 minutes 01 second
3.Rollout124/22 15/14eq: -0.484 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
25.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.19% (G:55.95% B:45.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.486...-0.482) - [9.9%]
Duration: 53 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 14/13.

24/22 puts a checker where I want it to enhance my chances to hit a shot, and 14/13 gives me a direct 6 to aim at my bar point which I will usually want to make.



USBGF Members: 55 4/0(4)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 8
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBaA--a--a-a------bbbb-a-:1:-1:-1:51:9:9:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout122/21* 18/13eq: -0.125
Player:
Opponent:
43.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.26% (G:22.15% B:15.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.129...-0.122) - [93.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.Rollout124/19 22/21*eq: -0.129 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
43.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.44% (G:21.44% B:14.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.132...-0.125) - [6.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
3.playedRollout122/21* 21/16eq: -0.133 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
43.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.66% (G:22.53% B:15.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.137...-0.130) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
4.Rollout222/21* 15/10eq: -0.138 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
43.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.91% (G:23.16% B:16.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.146...-0.130) - [0.1%]
Duration: 13 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout222/21* 13/8eq: -0.146 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
42.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.31% (G:25.11% B:18.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.155...-0.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60486438
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/21*/16.

22/21* is heaven sent, and I slightly prefer blocking 11 for now with 21/16. I can play 24/19 and gain on 21 but get ruined by 11. However, that means 21 is the only blotting ace so I think I should wait until more aces force two blots before paying off hugely to 11.



USBGF Members: 22 b/23


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 147