USBGF OLM 2017-02-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-cBEBCB-----Aa--cbca---:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout115/9eq: +0.751
Player:
Opponent:
77.15% (G:26.04% B:0.73%)
22.85% (G:2.41% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.746...+0.756) - [55.4%]
Duration: 37 minutes 10 seconds
2.xgRollout16/5 6/1*eq: +0.750 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
75.78% (G:29.15% B:0.97%)
24.22% (G:3.38% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.744...+0.756) - [42.7%]
Duration: 41 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout18/3 6/5eq: +0.744 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
76.02% (G:28.36% B:1.02%)
23.98% (G:3.40% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.738...+0.750) - [1.9%]
Duration: 39 minutes 29 seconds
4.Rollout18/7 6/1*eq: +0.734 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
75.52% (G:28.43% B:0.84%)
24.48% (G:3.53% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.728...+0.739) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 05 seconds
5.Rollout115/14 6/1*eq: +0.727 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
75.50% (G:27.84% B:0.91%)
24.50% (G:3.55% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.721...+0.733) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 29 seconds
6.Rollout115/14 8/3eq: +0.718 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
75.41% (G:27.03% B:1.03%)
24.59% (G:3.58% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.712...+0.724) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 20 seconds
7.Rollout18/2*eq: +0.710 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
74.28% (G:28.62% B:1.43%)
25.72% (G:3.88% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.704...+0.717) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 25 seconds
8.Rollout115/10 6/5eq: +0.687 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
74.64% (G:26.13% B:0.99%)
25.36% (G:3.96% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.681...+0.693) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 19 seconds
9.Rollout17/2* 2/1*eq: +0.648 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
71.07% (G:32.03% B:1.11%)
28.93% (G:7.40% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.642...+0.654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 15/9
[ 3] 15/10 6/5
[ 3] 6/5 6/1*


Mary Hickey recommends:

All our options are unsatisfactory, one way or another. If we could slot our 3 point using a checker from our overstacked 6 point, that might be the way to go, but I can’t see stripping the 8 point to do it with our 5. If we had a way to blast both his back checkers off the board without giving up our bar point and leaving a blot there, I’d look at that, too. A play like that to prevent his making a second anchor can be the right idea in these situations, if it doesn’t involve as much danger as it does here, and if the follow-up when it worked was easier. I did look at it awhile, though.

So I ended up “circling back” to the very simple and straightforward 15/9. This abandons the idea of sending him back if he runs his spare on the anchor, but we can live with that. At least it lands on a point that didn’t have a spare before, which could make it easier for us to roll our block forward.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 105
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-cBEBCC------a--cbca---:1:-1:-1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout124/23 9/4eq: -0.619
Player:
Opponent:
25.65% (G:2.18% B:0.08%)
74.35% (G:20.19% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.624...-0.614) - [99.9%]
Duration: 29 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 6/1eq: -0.630 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
25.28% (G:2.03% B:0.07%)
74.72% (G:20.43% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.635...-0.625) - [0.1%]
Duration: 27 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 9/4.

Finally I can grab a 2nd anchor before an attack comes behind my 4 point anchor! For the 5, I am staying off my ace point, so I play 9/4. I don’t need to save 6’s and I am leaving with the next one.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 105
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--b-cBEBCC---------cbda---:1:-1:1:54:1:4:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sat 2/25 915p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-02-23

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBEaCC---A-Ab--cbba---:1:-1:1:62:1:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7* 9/7eq: +0.700
Player:
Opponent:
74.63% (G:26.93% B:0.98%)
25.37% (G:3.23% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.694...+0.705) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout19/7* 7/1*eq: +0.571 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:
69.48% (G:28.50% B:0.77%)
30.52% (G:6.45% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.565...+0.577) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout113/7* 7/5eq: +0.554 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:
69.64% (G:25.07% B:1.02%)
30.36% (G:4.24% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.548...+0.560) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 13/7* 9/7
[ 3] 13/7*/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/7* 9/7

When you want to block an opponent long enough for him to crack his board and not be as much of a threat to you later on, a prime is usually the way to go. It also tends to be easier to “roll” a block in front of an anchor if there are no gaps in it. I don’t see any reason that this position would be an exception to any of these common BG themes, so let’s make the bar and let him get out of there in time to save his board if he can.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 169
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--cBEBCB-----Ab--cbba---:1:-1:-1:52:1:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 9/4eq: -0.833
Player:
Opponent:
22.57% (G:3.23% B:0.17%)
77.43% (G:32.61% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.839...-0.827) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/1eq: -0.881 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
21.64% (G:2.76% B:0.08%)
78.36% (G:35.01% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.888...-0.875) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 9/4.

Bar/23 9/4 is basically forced with this rather poor roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-cBEBCB-----Aa--cbca---:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 2/24 715a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-02-22

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBE-CB---B-abA-cbba---:1:-1:1:42:1:4:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout117/15* 15/11eq: +0.551
Player:
Opponent:
70.59% (G:22.73% B:0.96%)
29.41% (G:5.01% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.545...+0.557) - [100.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 38 seconds
2.playedRollout117/15* 13/9eq: +0.531 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
69.83% (G:23.04% B:0.95%)
30.17% (G:5.20% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.525...+0.537) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 17/15* 13/9
[14] 17/15*/11
[ 1] 17/11


Mary Hickey recommends: 17/15* 13/9

We want to hit because of the added gammons, so we start with 17/15*. Then we can either keep going with 15/11, or play 13/9 which looks more flexible and gives us more ways to make the 3 point safely, which could be quite important if he either enters there or makes the ace anchor. On the downside, it also leaves us with a bit more cleanup that must be done right away, or at least very soon, once he enters. 13/9 isn’t any better than 15/11 for making the bar point, but we can win without it if we have to. I don’t think the extra blot is all that big a big deal, and I like increasing our focus on the 3 point, so I like 13/9 for the 4.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 169
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--cBE-CC---A-Ab--cbba---:1:-1:-1:52:1:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/18eq: -0.592
Player:
Opponent:
28.00% (G:4.96% B:0.28%)
72.00% (G:24.01% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.598...-0.586) - [100.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 9/4eq: -0.632 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
26.74% (G:4.48% B:0.31%)
73.26% (G:24.53% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.637...-0.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/18.

Well, now I wish that I’d passed this cube! Anyhow I need action and I am still only facing a 2 point board so out I come.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBEaCC---A-Ab--cbba---:1:-1:1:62:1:4:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBE-CB---B-abA-cbba---:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:70.93% (G:15.79% B:0.45%)71.08% (G:16.98% B:0.51%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:29.07% (G:4.94% B:0.14%)28.92% (G:5.36% B:0.23%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.533+1.138
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.895 (-0.104)±0.007 (+0.888..+0.902)
played Double/Take:+0.999±0.011 (+0.989..+1.010)
xg Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.001)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71892472
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:54.9%
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] Double
[12] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

Hey, he finally missed us! That doesn’t mean we automatically have a cube, but I still see one here, especially at this score. Let’s look at some possible outcomes: 1) We miss. So, we just come home as quietly as we can, and try to win the race after we get past him. This will be a rather standard holding game, which means we’re the favorites, though he’d have enough potential action to take. 2) We hit and he makes our ace, deuce, or three point. Yes, he has a backgame now, but its timing may or may not hold. But even if his timing works out perfectly, we haven’t left a shot yet, and he hasn’t hit it yet! 3) We hit and he fails to make another anchor. Now he has worse than normal holding game equity because of having so many men back. His chances of hitting and winning are probably about the same as in Item 1, but he will lose more gammons than in that case. If this happens, we will have lost our market.

Did someone say gammons? At this score, we sure could use one, and a doubled one would be even better. Time to try our luck at rolling a 2, since the risk when we miss isn’t all that high unless we roll 11, which we aren’t going to do.


Neil Kazaross takes.

This looks like a clear take at a “normal” score but at this score, my recube vig is somewhat less than normal and my cost of losing a gammon is somewhat higher than normal. Most of my opponents rolls play OK for them for now, but I think that the are awkward enough to give me some play. I should also be able to make a stronger board soon and if hit can hope for a 2nd anchor. Whether I am hit or not, I can hope to hop into the outfield and increase contact.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBE-CB---B-abA-cbba---:1:-1:1:42:1:4:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--c-F-DB-b-B--aA-cbba---:0:0:1:31:1:4:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.497
Player:
Opponent:
60.12% (G:16.68% B:0.81%)
39.88% (G:11.39% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.484...+0.509) - [80.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
2.xgRollout117/16* 16/13eq: +0.490 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
59.06% (G:17.59% B:0.70%)
40.94% (G:9.40% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.478...+0.501) - [19.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
3.Rollout117/13eq: +0.432 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
60.22% (G:11.41% B:0.35%)
39.78% (G:10.40% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.423...+0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92328857
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 8/5 6/5
[13] 17/16*/13
[ 6] 17/13


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5 6/5

We can make a blot-free play today by running our back man to the midpoint, either hitting or not hitting along the way. But that blot-free situation is unlikely to last long! Our position remains precarious, while he makes his board in order unimpeded. Today I’m making our 5 point, which still leaves a double shot, but the badness stops there. We use one of the spares from each of our two stacked points to make the best point in our board, producing a lasting asset and leaving us with what I call “passive counterplay” if we do get hit. Even if we can’t are hit and then fan or just can’t disengage our back man as quickly as we’d like, we can count on our block to give him headaches as he tries to get his four back men away from us. To me, thinking long-term here beats out immediate safety, and means making that five point and keeping it till the bearoff!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBE-CB-b-B--aA-cbba---:0:0:-1:54:1:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout114/10 14/9eq: -0.981
Player:
Opponent:
28.82% (G:5.13% B:0.22%)
71.18% (G:15.92% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.992...-0.969) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
2.xgRollout19/4 6/2eq: -1.000 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
28.89% (G:5.95% B:0.25%)
71.11% (G:17.71% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.008...-0.992) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout19/5 6/1eq: -1.000 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
27.22% (G:5.06% B:0.28%)
72.78% (G:17.12% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
4.Rollout114/9 6/2eq: -1.000 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
27.46% (G:4.50% B:0.23%)
72.54% (G:21.75% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
5.Rollout114/5eq: -1.000 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
27.68% (G:4.65% B:0.17%)
72.32% (G:22.97% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
6.Rollout19/4 5/1eq: -1.000 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
24.64% (G:4.09% B:0.11%)
75.36% (G:17.23% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 71892472
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/10 14/9.

I’ll play 14/10 14/9 since the alternative makes it too unlikely that I can have a good board soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBE-CB---B-abA-cbba---:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ab-FaDB---B--ab-cbb---A:0:0:1:52:1:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/18eq: +0.041
Player:
Opponent:
49.78% (G:13.02% B:0.59%)
50.22% (G:16.23% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.029...+0.053) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/1*eq: -0.113 (-0.154)
Player:
Opponent:
45.91% (G:13.55% B:0.49%)
54.09% (G:18.27% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.125...-0.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 8/3*eq: -0.259 (-0.300)
Player:
Opponent:
42.47% (G:12.74% B:0.64%)
57.53% (G:20.57% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.271...-0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79797981
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] b/18
[ 1] b/23 6/1*
[ 1] b/23 8/3*


Mary Hickey recommends: b/18

Yes, I know the definition of insanity, but we have to do the same thing and hope for a different result. The more attackers he has in the Zone, the more urgent our escape becomes, even here where he doesn’t rate to close us out for a long time. Once again, we have no good Play B, so bar/18 is it.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 130
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ab-FaDB---B--abAcbb----:0:0:-1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout122/18 8/7*eq: +0.104
Player:
Opponent:
53.88% (G:18.39% B:0.78%)
46.12% (G:13.53% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.090...+0.117) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout118/14 8/7*eq: +0.068 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
53.45% (G:18.05% B:0.90%)
46.55% (G:14.78% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.055...+0.080) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79797981
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/18 8/7*.

This is straight forward as I hit 8/7* and then play 22/18, re-establishing a presence in my opponents outfield. If they can hit from the bar (12 shots) I will be quite happy to have that 2nd anchor and I can just re-enter and play. If they don’t hit from the bar, many entries play poorly and I am also ready to continue my attack/board building.



USBGF Members: 53 b/17*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 179
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--b-FbDB---B--aAacbb----:0:0:-1:44:1:4:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 18/14(2) 7/3eq: -0.421
Player:
Opponent:
41.13% (G:10.92% B:0.38%)
58.87% (G:14.45% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.432...-0.411) - [72.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/21 18/14(2) 9/5eq: -0.426 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
40.35% (G:10.90% B:0.44%)
59.65% (G:13.06% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.436...-0.415) - [27.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79797981
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 18/14(2) 7/3.

18/14(2) is basically forced and gives me direct contact with their blot that I’d love to recapture. Now I have two choice for my final 4. 9/5 is safe, but am I really concerned with fewer blots when I already have 4 checkers back and am far behind in pips? Therefore, I think 7/3 is more to the point as when not hit I will have 28 rolls to make my 3 point and a fine 4 point board. A couple of their rolls with hitting aces are also duped for other purposes.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--c-F-DB-b-B--aA-cbba---:0:0:1:31:1:4:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 182
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ca-F-DB--bB--a--cbb---A:0:0:1:62:1:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/17eq: +0.120
Player:
Opponent:
50.65% (G:15.76% B:0.65%)
49.35% (G:14.47% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.107...+0.132) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/2eq: -0.033 (-0.153)
Player:
Opponent:
46.71% (G:15.81% B:0.71%)
53.29% (G:17.25% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.045...-0.021) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71117745
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] b/17
[ 1] b/23 8/2


Mary Hickey recommends: b/17

bar/17 walks into a double shot, but this is yet another case of “Well, what’s Play B?” We don’t want a second blot for him to start kicking around, and there are no one-blot options other than bar/17. There is a little positivity here, though: This play has the upside of getting us out of his board if he misses.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 182
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ca-F-DB--bB--aA-cbb----:0:0:-1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout122/21 13/8*eq: +0.008
Player:
Opponent:
52.43% (G:16.35% B:0.80%)
47.57% (G:15.43% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.005...+0.022) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
2.Rollout113/8* 9/8eq: -0.024 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
51.43% (G:16.47% B:0.81%)
48.57% (G:15.65% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.037...-0.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79797981
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/21 13/8*.

I’ll hit 13/8* as the only decent 5 to play. I think using my spare on the 22 point to make the 21 point is the best ace. This could result in me getting hit again on my side of the board and having more checkers sent back but that isn’t tragic here, as my opponents have considerable work to do to block them. Of course my builders could also result in me continuing my attack.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 176
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-bb-F-DB--aB--aa-cbb---A:0:0:-1:54:1:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.Rollout124/15eq: +0.117
Player:
Opponent:
54.44% (G:17.15% B:0.75%)
45.56% (G:12.83% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.105...+0.128) - [74.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
2.xgRollout122/13eq: +0.111 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
54.05% (G:18.38% B:0.80%)
45.95% (G:13.32% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.100...+0.122) - [24.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
3.playedRollout122/18 13/8eq: +0.101 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
53.72% (G:18.50% B:0.78%)
46.28% (G:13.35% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.089...+0.113) - [1.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79797981
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/18 13/8.

This is not an easy play since I see 3 good candidates. I could play 24/15 with the idea that my blots help protect each other as I’ll usually get many return shots when hit. However, I think it is better to stay back on the 24 point and remain more flexible and also hope to pick up a blot if my opponents roll poorly and leave a blot on the 1 or 2 points.

Therefore, my 4 will be played 22/18 as I need to get my back checkers going. Now there are two good 5’s and I’ve spent much time trying to compare 18/13, remaking the mid point, with 13/8, making my 8 point and leaving the USBGF Members a rather poor 62 and 53.

13/8 adds another builder giving me 10 checkers in the zone, and it is possible for me to do more damage to their lone checker on the bar when it enters. 13/8 also allows me to make the 18 point often and get some outfield control.

18/13 remakes the mid point but how important is that when most of my opponents checkers have gone past it and their mid point is stripped making it difficult for them to spread builders to try to further block me. 18/13 will be better if they hit me with 63 or roll a 7 and decide to come out to my bar point.

This is very difficult but I have to choose and I will go with 13/8, adding to my offense and also allowing me to often make the 18 point soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ab-FaDB---B--ab-cbb---A:0:0:1:25:1:4:0:11:10
to play 25

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 180
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-c--F-DB--cB---bacbA----:0:0:1:32:1:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout121/18* 18/16eq: +0.379
Player:
Opponent:
54.39% (G:21.99% B:1.09%)
45.61% (G:10.27% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.365...+0.393) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 11 minutes
2.Rollout121/18* 6/4eq: +0.296 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
53.37% (G:19.01% B:0.93%)
46.63% (G:12.03% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.282...+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 32 minutes
3.Rollout121/18* 8/6eq: +0.214 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:
50.68% (G:20.15% B:1.08%)
49.32% (G:11.58% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.201...+0.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 28 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89969939
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 21/18*/16


Mary Hickey recommends: 21/18*/16

Again, we have to risk “giving him his backgame” because we have no other useful way to play this 32 other than 21/18*/16. All the non-hitting options leave more blots and shots, and so risk letting him win going forward because we’re still semi-trapped in his board. At least hitting him gets us out of his board, and if we can just manage to stay out, we may have something good going soon!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 198
             
11 point match
              pip: 128
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-c--F-DB--cB--Ab-cb-----:0:0:-1:44:1:4:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/9* 8/4(2)eq: -0.065
Player:
Opponent:
50.92% (G:15.47% B:0.80%)
49.08% (G:16.16% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.077...-0.053) - [99.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/21 22/18 13/9*(2)eq: -0.089 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
51.10% (G:14.16% B:0.72%)
48.90% (G:17.57% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.102...-0.077) - [0.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 22/14 13/9*eq: -0.094 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
51.18% (G:13.66% B:0.69%)
48.82% (G:18.06% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.108...-0.081) - [0.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71117745
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 13/9* 8/4(2).

With this nice roll, I’ll hit 13/9*, and then I clearly prefer to make my 4 point with 8/4(2). My opponents have no extra homeboard points, so I can fiddle around with my back checkers later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 182
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ca-F-DB--bB--a--cbb---A:0:0:1:62:1:4:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-16

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 168
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-b--E-EB--dB---b-cbaA---:0:0:1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout122/21* 8/6eq: +0.251
Player:
Opponent:
52.17% (G:18.93% B:1.08%)
47.83% (G:11.68% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.239...+0.264) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 48 minutes
2.Rollout122/21* 6/4eq: +0.218 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
52.34% (G:16.64% B:0.91%)
47.66% (G:12.62% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.205...+0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 03 minutes
3.Rollout122/21* 13/11eq: +0.099 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
48.87% (G:17.28% B:0.90%)
51.13% (G:12.80% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.086...+0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 01 minute
4.Rollout18/5eq: -0.050 (-0.301)
Player:
Opponent:
47.43% (G:13.52% B:0.68%)
52.57% (G:17.61% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.062...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 41 minutes
5.Rollout122/21* 9/7eq: -0.051 (-0.302)
Player:
Opponent:
46.22% (G:15.19% B:0.76%)
53.78% (G:15.22% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.064...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 39 minutes
6.Rollout19/7 8/7eq: -0.059 (-0.310)
Player:
Opponent:
46.69% (G:13.84% B:0.75%)
53.31% (G:16.81% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.071...-0.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89969939
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 22/21* 8/6
[ 1] 22/21* 6/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/21* 8/6

Again we have a decision where only one play works with our game plan. Hitting him 22/21* and then playing the safe, if ineffectual, 8/6 keeps us paddling in place while we wait for a chance to make a constructive move.

Sending the fourth man back may allow him to set up a backgame, but fear of that outcome shouldn’t lead us to look for something that takes too much risk of other bad outcomes. He doesn’t have the backgame yet, and even if he gets it, he hasn’t won it yet.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 189
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-b--F-DB--dB---b-cbA----:0:0:-1:63:1:4:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.395
Player:
Opponent:
44.13% (G:10.24% B:0.42%)
55.87% (G:19.87% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.408...-0.382) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 24/18eq: -0.465 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
41.72% (G:8.86% B:0.41%)
58.28% (G:18.19% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.477...-0.452) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89969939
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 13/7.

My slot didn’t work out, but I will continue along the same line playing a two way game with bar/22 13/7 while my opponents still have a one point board and are very stacked.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 180
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-c--F-DB--cB---bacbA----:0:0:1:32:1:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-CB-adD---c-e---A--:0:0:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout123/22 13/8eq: +0.465
Player:
Opponent:
60.22% (G:12.51% B:0.54%)
39.78% (G:9.24% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.454...+0.476) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout123/18 6/5eq: +0.406 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
59.65% (G:10.82% B:0.45%)
40.35% (G:10.08% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.396...+0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout113/7eq: +0.398 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
58.34% (G:13.37% B:0.54%)
41.66% (G:9.77% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.387...+0.409) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
4.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: +0.385 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
58.36% (G:12.71% B:0.51%)
41.64% (G:10.28% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.373...+0.396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79647184
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 23/22 13/8
[ 7] 13/8 6/5
[ 1] 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 23/22 13/8

No need for anything fancy or forcing. We want to get home quietly past his anchor and win the race, so playing quietly with 23/22 13/8 makes sense. Our chances are good to make the 5 and 4 point in front of him, or make just one and then get through the first part of our bearoff without the other, without ever taking the risk of slotting. We have plenty of rolls ahead to try, so no need to get impatient now.



Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5 6/5
USBGF Members: 32 13/11*/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 171
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--b--E-EB--dB---b-db-A---:0:0:-1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.312
Player:
Opponent:
44.59% (G:11.50% B:0.57%)
55.41% (G:15.79% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.323...-0.301) - [96.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/11eq: -0.326 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
43.94% (G:11.62% B:0.52%)
56.06% (G:15.23% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.337...-0.315) - [3.8%]
Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.373 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
42.64% (G:10.74% B:0.50%)
57.36% (G:14.33% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.384...-0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40749428
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Rollout in progress, will extend to 7776 games.

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 6/4.

Now that I have an anchor, I think I can afford to play more aggressively. I want to maximize long term contact and enter on the 24 point and then 6/4 has considerably more potential than 13/11 and hopefully is worth the risk.
Note that the builder on the 11 point isn’t very strong when I have my 5 point as it isn’t a builder for my 5 point. When my 8 point is stripped I also cannot play 41 making a 4 prime. Additionally, the checker on my 4 point is also a builder for the 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 168
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-b--E-EB--dB---b-cbaA---:0:0:1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/23 13/9eq: +0.085
Player:
Opponent:
49.95% (G:14.46% B:0.60%)
50.05% (G:14.13% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.081...+0.090) - [99.6%]
Duration: 20 hours 39 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: +0.076 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
49.98% (G:14.35% B:0.55%)
50.02% (G:14.96% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.072...+0.081) - [0.4%]
Duration: 22 hours 27 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 24/23 13/9
[ 9] 13/9 6/5
[ 2] 24/20 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/23 13/9

If slotting produced a lot more gammons for us, without the price being too many added losses, it might be right here. But the current bot-wisdom seems to be that isn’t the case. Part of the problem is that unlike slotting with a 21 opener, we leave some added outside-hit numbers (62 and 53) that didn’t already hit on the 5 point. So today I’m playing 24/23 13/9, as I normally do*.

But even if XG 9, or 17, or whatever someday tells us that when behind in a match, it’s “right” by, say, .002 to slot with 41, I’m not switching. I will still need to know responses to the 41 slot opener, since other players will be doing it, but I will not need to know where to go on the move following that, since I will always be splitting with my own opening 41s. I don’t memorize a lot of Move 3 material, just principles and some key reference positions, so I find it helpful to simplify when I can. Almost never playing the 41 slot opener means I don’t have to keep even vague impressions about one set of third moves in my limited human memory bank.

* I slot with a 41 opener against only one opponent, Howard Shirey, and always remind him that it’s only because he likes it so much. There, Howard! You just got 15 seconds of fame in BG-land


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 162
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.280
Player:
Opponent:
45.84% (G:12.28% B:0.67%)
54.16% (G:16.68% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.285...-0.275) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout124/21eq: -0.295 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
45.56% (G:11.36% B:0.60%)
54.44% (G:16.50% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.299...-0.290) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 17 minutes
3.Rollout224/23 24/22eq: -0.322 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
45.01% (G:11.14% B:0.68%)
54.99% (G:17.02% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.333...-0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 13/11.

The correct 21 reply to 41 24/23 13/9 for money is 24/23 13/11 so I will play that here.



USBGF Members: 63 23/14*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 178
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaa---E-CA--dDA--c-e----A-:0:0:-1:65:1:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.574
Player:
Opponent:
39.00% (G:9.51% B:0.44%)
61.00% (G:18.39% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.579...-0.569) - [61.8%]
Duration: 14 hours 41 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/14eq: -0.575 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
38.67% (G:9.12% B:0.44%)
61.33% (G:17.57% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.579...-0.570) - [38.2%]
Duration: 14 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/20 24/18eq: -0.599 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
37.80% (G:8.69% B:0.56%)
62.20% (G:19.49% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.613...-0.585) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92246088
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92246088
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/14.

This sort of bad 6 entry is never pleasant. Normally one hops out with bar/14 but that is into a double shot so maybe I can find another move. 24/18 looks like leading with my chin I may come out OK, but I could get knocked out as there are many builders. 13/7 is constructive, but I fear how exposed I am both to pointing shots and double hits.

I’ll go with b/14 trying to minimize the immediate damage that can be done to me.



USBGF Members: 51 24/23 14/9


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-CB-adD---c-e---A--:0:0:-1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/22 23/22eq: -0.593
Player:
Opponent:
36.82% (G:8.00% B:0.32%)
63.18% (G:13.03% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.604...-0.581) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 6/4eq: -0.624 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
37.33% (G:8.21% B:0.38%)
62.67% (G:16.88% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.636...-0.613) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.627 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
37.39% (G:8.65% B:0.37%)
62.61% (G:17.18% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.638...-0.617) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes
4.Rollout114/11eq: -0.632 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
36.94% (G:8.38% B:0.37%)
63.06% (G:16.78% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.643...-0.620) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92246088
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 23/22.

It has been said that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. This is often true when your opponent has 10 or more checkers in the attack zone. 14/11 doesn’t really accomplish very much and every roll that I remain unanchored leaves chances for the USBGF Members to roll an attacking joker and soon blow me away. The score also is starting to matter, as for cubeful reasons, I want to reduce the chances of me losing a gammon. If this were DMP or a gammon go score for me I’d find some play more flexible and enterprising than anchoring but here I will opt for a play that should keep me in the game for a while.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-CB-adD---c-e---A--:0:0:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-13 Start of Match #6 Game #4

[Previous][Next]

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-13 End of Match #6 Game #3

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 92
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBaC-D-C--a-----aabbbbbaA:1:-1:-1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo redoubleRedouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:92.56% (G:12.62% B:0.12%)93.74% (G:11.77% B:0.12%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:7.44% (G:1.62% B:0.10%)6.26% (G:1.87% B:0.11%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.966+1.966
Cubeful Equities
xg No redouble:+1.014±0.002 (+1.012..+1.016)
     Redouble/Take:+1.923 (+0.909)±0.004 (+1.919..+1.927)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.014)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 18 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Pass
[ 2] Take


Mary Hickey recommends: Pass

This was our worst case scenario, hit/fan. Of course we have a dead drop. The only controversy possible here is whether Neil might have been too good, but I tend to go with “When in doubt, ship it.” If anyone took this, you need to think hard about how you assess not only gammon chances, but also how you figure out how much “squirm vig” you have in cases like this. There sure isn’t much here.

Even if he rolls 55 or 53, which not only don’t cover either the ace or the bar but also leave his straggler stuck in our home, he still has a top-five board and we’re still on the bar. And even if we roll an ace from there and hit him, he hasn’t missed his return shots yet. The Wuggly Ump is at the door, so don’t open it–pass and reset!


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

This is certainly a difficult decision, as I have 28 good numbers that either close my prime or cover the ace point and give me some chances to win a gammon. But there are two problems. (1) I don’t like the 8 numbers that don’t work, and I don’t think that I am supposed to break my board to cover the ace point blot with those rolls. Therefore I will be vulnerable to being hit on the ace point and things could then blow up. (2) My overall gammon chances aren’t very high anyhow.

I’d play on if I had a couple more working numbers or if my opponents still had a blot on their ace point, but as it is I am enough concerned about their 4 point board that I will cautiously cash this game.


Neil Kazaross wins two points, and leads 7-away/10-away.

USBGF OLM 2017-02-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 100
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACbC-C-C--B-----aabbbbba-:1:-1:1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout111/6 2/1eq: +0.361
Player:
Opponent:
70.57% (G:2.82% B:0.09%)
29.43% (G:1.69% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.358...+0.365) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 2/1eq: +0.305 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
68.54% (G:1.82% B:0.02%)
31.46% (G:1.67% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.301...+0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout18/2eq: +0.293 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
67.56% (G:2.22% B:0.03%)
32.44% (G:2.03% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.290...+0.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout111/10 11/6eq: +0.285 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
67.68% (G:2.45% B:0.11%)
32.32% (G:2.92% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.281...+0.289) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 11/6 2/1
[ 5] 8/2
[ 3] 6/1 2/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 11/6 2/1

We are likely to leave the 62 and 44 indirects some time, and if we wait, he may have a closed board instead of a blot we can hit back. It helps that we get to cover our ace point if we play 11/6 with the 5, because that way our return hits, if it comes to that, are more effective. We’ll have a big board, plus fewer ways for them to backfire immediately by his hitting us again. This looks to be the right time to pay now with three shots, since later we might have to pay more — either by leaving more shots, or by having them be more costly if they’re hit.



Neil Kazaross: 62 22/14*
USBGF Members: 52 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 92
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBaC-D-C--a-----aabbbbbaA:1:-1:-1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross redoubles to 4.


USBGF OLM 2017-02-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbD-D-C--B-a----bbbbbb--:1:-1:1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout16/2 4/1eq: +0.389
Player:
Opponent:
72.04% (G:2.07% B:0.02%)
27.96% (G:1.59% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.388...+0.391) - [86.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2.xgRollout18/1eq: +0.388 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
71.77% (G:2.40% B:0.02%)
28.23% (G:1.80% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.387...+0.390) - [13.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout211/4eq: +0.307 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
68.43% (G:1.62% B:0.02%)
31.57% (G:2.60% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.303...+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 6/2 4/1
[11] 8/1
[ 3] 11/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/1

Continuing the plan of preparing to clear the outside, 8/1 looks good today. If the loss of its spare means we end up clearing the 8 point ahead of the 11, that’s all right, since at least then we won’t leave a direct shot there.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACbC-C-C--B-a----bbbbbb--:1:-1:-1:64:1:2:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout112/8 7/1eq: -0.397
Player:
Opponent:
27.75% (G:1.58% B:0.03%)
72.25% (G:2.31% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.399...-0.396) - [66.9%]
Duration: 57 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout112/2eq: -0.398 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
27.44% (G:1.52% B:0.04%)
72.56% (G:2.12% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.399...-0.396) - [33.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.Rollout112/6 7/3eq: -0.401 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
27.25% (G:1.42% B:0.03%)
72.75% (G:2.15% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.402...-0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout27/3 7/1eq: -0.406 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
27.10% (G:1.43% B:0.02%)
72.90% (G:2.31% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.409...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 01 second
5.Rollout27/1 5/1eq: -0.425 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
26.44% (G:1.16% B:0.02%)
73.56% (G:2.52% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.429...-0.422) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 02 seconds
6.Rollout222/16 12/8eq: -0.427 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
27.90% (G:2.46% B:0.06%)
72.10% (G:5.24% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.430...-0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds
7.Rollout212/6 5/1eq: -0.432 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
26.06% (G:1.30% B:0.03%)
73.94% (G:2.68% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.435...-0.429) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 28 seconds
8.Rollout222/16 7/3eq: -0.440 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
27.54% (G:2.59% B:0.08%)
72.46% (G:6.52% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.443...-0.437) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 27 seconds
9.Rollout27/1 6/2eq: -0.450 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
25.38% (G:1.26% B:0.04%)
74.62% (G:3.45% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.454...-0.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 05 seconds
10.Rollout222/12eq: -0.459 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
25.45% (G:1.48% B:0.04%)
74.55% (G:2.28% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.462...-0.456) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 01 second
11.Rollout222/18 12/6eq: -0.462 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
27.03% (G:2.18% B:0.07%)
72.97% (G:6.47% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.465...-0.459) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66379805
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/8 7/1.

Now with a large roll, I think that I should prepare to make my ace point since the play that holds my bar point is awkward. Therefore, I play 12/8 7/1.

It is also possible for me to come off the anchor and apply direct pressure to the 11 point in hopes that my opponents roll a poor shot, forcing a blot. However, I see too many opposing builders and jokers to want to do this right now.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 100
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACbC-C-C--B-----aabbbbba-:1:-1:1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 96
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbB-E-D--Ba-----bcbbab--:1:-1:1:42:1:2:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: +0.399
Player:
Opponent:
72.58% (G:2.12% B:0.03%)
27.42% (G:1.41% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.395...+0.403) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/2eq: +0.384 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
72.01% (G:1.96% B:0.03%)
27.99% (G:1.44% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.380...+0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout18/2eq: +0.375 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
71.56% (G:2.02% B:0.03%)
28.44% (G:1.45% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.371...+0.378) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 00 second
4.Rollout18/6 8/4eq: +0.368 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
70.96% (G:2.27% B:0.03%)
29.04% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.364...+0.371) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 8/4 6/4
[12] 6/4 6/2
[ 1] 8/6 8/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/4 6/4

I know that 8/4 6/4 leaves a shot with 66 next time, but I think it’s worth it to risk that one shot to keep on track with our game plan of clearing the outside points. Taking two men off the 6 point leaves us with only one spare on the 6 point, and if we roll numbers that cause the loss of that spare, we can end up leaving shots later while remaining awkward for the the remainder of the bear-in and bearoff. It looks right to me to take that small risk now in exchange for the improvement of keeping our spares in front of his anchor. I also don’t like that dumping a spare behind him creates a the dilly builder on the 2 point–starting the ace would be preferable. 8/4 6/4 for this bear today.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbD-D-C--Ba-----bcbbab--:1:-1:-1:31:1:2:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout113/12 6/3eq: -0.428
Player:
Opponent:
26.26% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
73.74% (G:2.26% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.432...-0.425) - [99.5%]
Duration: 29 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout17/3eq: -0.435 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
25.97% (G:1.53% B:0.03%)
74.03% (G:2.31% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.438...-0.431) - [0.5%]
Duration: 24 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12 6/3.

6/3 closes my prime and in case I get a quick shot I’d like to keep the 6 prime, so 13/12 with my ace. Depending upon what I roll next turn I may decide to retain the full prime or prepare to make my ace point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbD-D-C--B-a----bbbbbb--:1:-1:1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AbC-D-D--Cb----aacbb-b--:1:-1:1:52:1:2:0:11:10
to play 52

1.Rollout111/4eq: +0.469
Player:
Opponent:
75.61% (G:2.47% B:0.05%)
24.39% (G:1.33% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.468...+0.470) - [55.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes
2.xgRollout18/1eq: +0.469 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
75.55% (G:2.54% B:0.04%)
24.45% (G:1.28% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.467...+0.470) - [44.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes
3.Rollout211/6 8/6eq: +0.461 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
75.22% (G:2.60% B:0.05%)
24.78% (G:1.24% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.457...+0.465) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 52 seconds
4.playedRollout211/6 4/2eq: +0.457 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
75.11% (G:2.41% B:0.05%)
24.89% (G:1.29% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.453...+0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout26/1 4/2eq: +0.445 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
74.60% (G:2.37% B:0.03%)
25.40% (G:1.40% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.442...+0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 11/6 4/2
[10] 11/4
[ 4] 6/1 4/2
[ 3] 11/6 8/6
[ 3] 8/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 11/4

There’s a case for keeping the spare on the 11 point, in order to take another whack at using it to make our 5 point without leaving any indirect shots. But there’s also a case for just clearing the outfield ASAP, and I find that more convincing. I burn the spare, 11/6, and then think about the 2. We could cover the 2 point, but that strips the 4, and we don’t need the 2 point all that badly. If instead we add another spare to the 4 point with 6/4, we have plenty of well-distributed spares everywhere except the 11 point. Since the 11 point is our next one to clear if we can do it safely, or else get our 5 point in return for a few indirects, I’m not worried about that. I recommend 11/4, preparing to clear when we can.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 96
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbB-E-D--Bb----aacbb-b--:1:-1:-1:65:1:2:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/7 8/3eq: -0.450
Player:
Opponent:
25.20% (G:1.29% B:0.02%)
74.80% (G:2.29% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.453...-0.446) - [99.1%]
Duration: 30 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.456 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
24.87% (G:1.23% B:0.02%)
75.13% (G:2.39% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.459...-0.452) - [0.9%]
Duration: 26 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout17/1 6/1eq: -0.463 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
24.54% (G:1.05% B:0.01%)
75.46% (G:2.41% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.467...-0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout18/3 7/1eq: -0.466 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
24.57% (G:1.19% B:0.02%)
75.43% (G:2.60% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.469...-0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout113/7 6/1eq: -0.466 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
24.47% (G:1.18% B:0.07%)
75.53% (G:2.68% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.470...-0.463) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 55 seconds
6.Rollout113/2eq: -0.468 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
24.35% (G:1.03% B:0.02%)
75.65% (G:2.57% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.472...-0.465) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 26 seconds
7.Rollout113/8 7/1eq: -0.471 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
24.32% (G:1.10% B:0.02%)
75.68% (G:2.68% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.475...-0.467) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 8/3.

This looks routine to me as I play 13/7 and then 8/3 slots the point I also want to make. This looks better to me than making the 7 and 8 points since that will only last one turn and I have my 2 point, which requires the 3 point to make a prime.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 114
             
11 point match
              pip: 96
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BbB-E-D--Ba-----bcbbab--:1:-1:1:42:1:2:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 130
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---bC-D-E--BbA---abdb--b--:1:-1:1:62:1:2:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/11 8/2eq: +0.487
Player:
Opponent:
76.45% (G:2.59% B:0.05%)
23.55% (G:1.06% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.483...+0.490) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout113/5eq: +0.225 (-0.262)
Player:
Opponent:
66.57% (G:5.49% B:0.27%)
33.43% (G:6.37% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.220...+0.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 8/6eq: +0.192 (-0.295)
Player:
Opponent:
65.08% (G:5.03% B:0.24%)
34.92% (G:5.91% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.187...+0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15080741
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 13/11 8/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/11 8/2

Our race lead is solid now, so our game plan is to sneak past him and not leave him any shots unless either there’s a very good reason, or we’re forced to do so. The safest play here, 13/11 8/2, gives him no shots and leaves us with well-distributed spares for follow-up, so that’s the play that stands out as best.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 130
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AbC-D-D--Cb----abdb--b--:1:-1:-1:32:1:2:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout17/4 6/4eq: -0.514
Player:
Opponent:
22.52% (G:1.14% B:0.03%)
77.48% (G:2.71% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.516...-0.513) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 05 minutes
2.xgRollout113/10 6/4eq: -0.518 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
22.42% (G:1.15% B:0.03%)
77.58% (G:2.81% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.519...-0.516) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 32 minutes
3.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: -0.518 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
22.40% (G:1.14% B:0.03%)
77.60% (G:2.79% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.520...-0.517) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11144252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/4 6/4.

This game is nothing but a 3 point game now for me. I am happy to make my 4 point here. I slightly prefer this to slotting both my 4 point and 3 point since I may roll awkwardly and have problems covering both points.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AbC-D-D--Cb----aacbb-b--:1:-1:1:52:1:2:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-E-aBbB---abdb--b--:1:-1:1:63:1:2:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/10* 10/4eq: +0.312
Player:
Opponent:
66.70% (G:13.46% B:0.73%)
33.30% (G:6.95% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.307...+0.318) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 8/5eq: +0.216 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
64.50% (G:9.72% B:0.37%)
35.50% (G:6.52% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.211...+0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 13/10*eq: +0.165 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
63.31% (G:10.44% B:0.47%)
36.69% (G:10.17% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.160...+0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 13/10*/4
[ 3] 11/5 8/5
[ 3] 13/10 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/10*/4

Of course we have to hit, 13/10*, and after that the best way to minimize both his return shots and the blots he can bounce around is to continue 10/4. The only weakness in this play is that it creates a dilly builder, but this isn’t a really bad one since we’d be happy to make the 3 or even the 2 point if we can’t have the 5 point next.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 135
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--C-D-E--BbA---abdb--b--:1:-1:-1:32:1:2:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 24/22eq: -0.444
Player:
Opponent:
25.19% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
74.81% (G:2.97% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.448...-0.440) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/5eq: -0.465 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
28.08% (G:4.65% B:0.12%)
71.92% (G:14.29% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.469...-0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout1Bar/22 6/4eq: -0.469 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
28.95% (G:5.66% B:0.18%)
71.05% (G:17.25% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.474...-0.464) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/20eq: -0.473 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
28.43% (G:4.94% B:0.19%)
71.57% (G:16.25% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.478...-0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/23 6/3eq: -0.474 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
28.73% (G:5.87% B:0.18%)
71.27% (G:16.99% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.479...-0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 24/22.

I make the 22 point which when compared to staying split will sacrifice a few wins to prevent many gammon losses. The USBGF Members have far too many checkers and builders in the attack zone for me to be comfortable staying split.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 130
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---bC-D-E--BbA---abdb--b--:1:-1:1:62:1:2:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 2/8 745p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-02-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-E-aBbB---abdb--b--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:68.60% (G:10.37% B:0.31%)68.98% (G:10.40% B:0.33%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:31.40% (G:5.01% B:0.14%)31.02% (G:5.12% B:0.14%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.432+0.912
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.702 (-0.021)±0.003 (+0.699..+0.705)
played Double/Take:+0.723±0.005 (+0.718..+0.728)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.277)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] Double
[13] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

Another day when we may have a double, but I voted not to chuck it out there yet. True, we’re up another pip, and his anchoring threat packed up and left when his forward checker moved out of our board. But along with it went our PoH (“Point on Head”) threat on our 5 point, which was where a lot of our gammons started. Also, if we miss him this turn, he is likely to escape that back man to his side of the board. That will leave us with a potentially difficult containment game as we try to keep one little watermelon seed from squirting away past us. If our lead in the race remains small or goes negative, that will make containment more urgent and our decisions may be even more difficult.

OtB, I’d risk losing my market than deal with a long series of difficult plays while my opponent’s are so easy that he’ll probably be playing Candy Crush Saga on his phone for the rest of this game! So I voted for no double here too, but again won’t whale at anybody who did double. We have to be the favorite here, so even if we’re a peach short of a pie today, it won’t be the world’s biggest outrage if we double and then win the game.


Neil Kazaross takes.

The USBGF Members have likely been close to or have had a proper cube for a few turns now while I have continued to roll lemons instead of a decent roll to stave off the cube. Here the readers have some threats and a 5 pip lead while I am not threating much of anything and my home board while 3 points isn’t very pretty. The readers have some very strong doubles (all except 2’s which aren’t bad) and clearly the better game in general so I expect this, too is a proper initial cube.

However there are some awkward rolls for them as well that leave shots so I cannot even think of passing this. I may still recover if hit with a non-double in the outfield.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-E-aBbB---abdb--b--:1:-1:1:63:1:2:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 131
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-E--BbC---accb--b--:0:0:1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout18/5* 5/1*eq: +0.610
Player:
Opponent:
64.05% (G:17.93% B:0.52%)
35.95% (G:10.41% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.601...+0.619) - [100.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 57 seconds
2.playedRollout113/6eq: +0.514 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
63.85% (G:7.26% B:0.24%)
36.15% (G:5.01% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.506...+0.521) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 13/6
[15] 8/5*/1*
[ 1] 13/9 8/5*


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5*/1*

The safe play of 13/6 would be a strong contender if either our race lead were larger, or it balanced our spares instead of stripping the midpoint. But since his board isn’t big enough yet to make attacks that risk shots too dangerous for us, and 8/5*/1* uses a spare from a stacked point to good advantage, this seems to be the right time to make our big move.

If we are hit, the game’s not over, since we have quite a few decent re-entry rolls. But looking at the upside, how will he like a cube if he fans or enters badly? I don’t think I’m giving much away by saying we should be thinking about the cube when we vote on today’s play, since in theory we should keep the cube in mind on every play.

But even if we’d already doubled, I’d still want to double hit here. We’d still want to pursue the gammons that could follow hitting, and also avoid allowing him to simply roll a 4 and then sit there waiting for a dice-barf to produce a game-winning shot for him. Those look like good thoughts no matter where the cube is–so let’s go for it with that double hit!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 131
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaD-E--BbB---accb--b--:0:0:-1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout120/15 7/6eq: -0.711
Player:
Opponent:
31.29% (G:5.10% B:0.17%)
68.71% (G:10.57% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.721...-0.701) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
2.Rollout120/15 6/5eq: -0.733 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
31.10% (G:4.85% B:0.14%)
68.90% (G:10.89% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.743...-0.723) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout18/3 7/6eq: -0.745 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
32.14% (G:7.80% B:0.21%)
67.86% (G:15.79% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.756...-0.734) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
4.Rollout120/15 8/7eq: -0.753 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
30.66% (G:4.63% B:0.13%)
69.34% (G:10.83% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.763...-0.743) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
5.Rollout18/3 6/5eq: -0.773 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
31.82% (G:7.52% B:0.21%)
68.18% (G:16.31% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.783...-0.763) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
6.Rollout124/23 8/3eq: -0.778 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
31.24% (G:6.24% B:0.18%)
68.76% (G:14.27% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.789...-0.768) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/15 7/6.

I think it best to step away from the killing field on my opponent’s 5 point and to head into the outfield. Now if they can hit me, it is from stripped points. So lacking a better 5 I play 20/15 and then I slightly prefer bearing in with 7/6 rather than stripping my 6 point with 6/5. My opponents simply have too many builders aimed at their 5 point for me to stay there.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-E-aBbB---abdb--b--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-02

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-E-aBbB---abdb--b--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:68.63% (G:10.37% B:0.31%)69.00% (G:10.32% B:0.34%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:31.37% (G:5.04% B:0.14%)31.00% (G:5.13% B:0.15%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.432+0.911
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.701 (-0.020)±0.004 (+0.697..+0.705)
played Double/Take:+0.721±0.007 (+0.715..+0.728)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.279)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
4661 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37859465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] No Double
[ 9] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

This position is pretty close to the same as last time, with each side having cleaned up a blot. It’s different in that the game has smoothly progressed one more sequence toward its end, whatever that will be, which in the absence of other factors tends to decrease volatility and make the leading side’s advantage at least a bit more stable. However, his gain of a pip in the race might negate that small factor, if it even exists here.

Overall, these considerations suggest that our double today is either the same or slightly stronger than it was last turn, which induced me to vote for the double today. I admit that I am being influenced by having already having seen the analysis of the earlier decision, and that OtB, I might have played through this cube also.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 131
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-E--BbC---accb--b--:0:0:1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 138
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbCA--bccb-a---:0:0:1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout114/8eq: +0.488
Player:
Opponent:
63.34% (G:6.31% B:0.21%)
36.66% (G:4.57% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.480...+0.496) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
2.Rollout114/9 6/5*eq: +0.293 (-0.195)
Player:
Opponent:
58.14% (G:14.06% B:0.59%)
41.86% (G:14.06% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.283...+0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 14/8
[ 1] 14/9 6/5*


Mary Hickey recommends: 14/8

14/8, because there’s nothing better to do with this roll. Hitting risks way too many shots. At least 14/8 gets rid of that outfield blot, leaving us freer to make a move next time.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 138
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-E--BbC---bccb-a---:0:0:-1:61:1:2:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/2 3/2eq: -0.668
Player:
Opponent:
32.78% (G:6.20% B:0.17%)
67.22% (G:12.47% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.678...-0.658) - [25.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 7/1eq: -0.838 (-0.170)
Player:
Opponent:
30.94% (G:6.25% B:0.19%)
69.06% (G:16.32% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.850...-0.827) - [25.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout113/6eq: -0.860 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
30.45% (G:6.06% B:0.23%)
69.55% (G:15.58% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.872...-0.848) - [25.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 55 seconds
4.Rollout124/23 8/2eq: -0.860 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
31.20% (G:6.42% B:0.20%)
68.80% (G:17.31% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.871...-0.849) - [25.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2 3/2.

The only play that makes any sense is to make another point in my board to clean up a blot.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 131
             
11 point match
              pip: 127
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-E--BbC---accb--b--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-31

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 138
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbCA--bccb-a---:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:67.86% (G:10.50% B:0.37%)68.01% (G:11.29% B:0.41%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:32.14% (G:4.46% B:0.12%)31.99% (G:4.69% B:0.14%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.425+0.903
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.672 (-0.038)±0.008 (+0.665..+0.680)
xg Double/Take:+0.711±0.010 (+0.701..+0.721)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.289)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] No Double
[ 7] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

We have some obvious advantages today. No men back, a slight lead in the race, and some threats against his forward checker–what’s not to like? We are favored, but since we can’t expect to win a prodigious number of gammons from here, and he’ll have potentially fatal return shots at our hanging blot on the 14 point even if we point on him, I don’t see this game as quite strong enough for me to want to double. It may be an “edgy”, technically correct double, and if it’s wrong, it’s can’t be wrong by much–so I don’t blame anyone for doubling it, but I’d rather wait for a more efficient cube.

If I thought an opponent had any measurable chance of passing, I’d chuck it out there and risk a small error to give him a chance to make a ginormous one. But with Neil–naah, it’s not happening, and that factor isn’t in the mix.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 138
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbCA--bccb-a---:0:0:1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbC-a-bcd--a--A:0:0:1:65:1:2:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout1Bar/14eq: +0.463
Player:
Opponent:
61.86% (G:10.23% B:0.65%)
38.14% (G:7.16% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.459...+0.467) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 54 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 11/5*eq: +0.448 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
59.52% (G:19.39% B:1.45%)
40.48% (G:12.52% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.443...+0.452) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 55 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/14
[ 9] b/20 11/5*


Mary Hickey recommends: b/14

I like the less volatile bar/14 for our 65. Hitting on the 5 point injects more volatility, but there’s no certainty we will be on the right side of it. There is also the irrefutable numerical argument that you can sometimes us in the chou when your compadres want to make some crazy-whack play: “Three blots are more numerous than one!” >> It’s often right to go all-out, leaving extra blots in the process, but do it when the need is greater than here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbCAa-bcd--a---:0:0:-1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout110/5 6/5eq: -0.712
Player:
Opponent:
32.01% (G:4.80% B:0.18%)
67.99% (G:11.43% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.723...-0.701) - [50.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout18/3 6/5eq: -0.781 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
32.01% (G:5.99% B:0.24%)
67.99% (G:15.27% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.792...-0.769) - [50.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5 6/5.

This again isn’t the anchoring roll that I’ve been hoping for but at least I can make my 5 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 138
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbCA--bccb-a---:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--AcC-a-bbe--B---:0:0:1:65:1:2:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout122/11eq: +0.298
Player:
Opponent:
57.13% (G:12.30% B:0.64%)
42.87% (G:9.79% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.288...+0.307) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
2.Rollout111/5* 6/1*eq: +0.234 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
53.12% (G:19.59% B:0.75%)
46.88% (G:12.74% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.222...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 22/11
[ 5] 11/5* 6/1*


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/11

Just because we can hit him on our 5 point, doesn’t mean we have to. If the accompanying 5 played better, then we’d likely want to, but hitting him on the ace (about the only reasonable choice for the 5) is pretty lame, partly for the reasons Chuck notes in his post–too many immediate shots for him that kill our racing advantage, and too much likelihood we leave a blot for him again next turn if we’re missed now. Another reason is that it doesn’t “put our checkers where we want them”–who needs a loose checker on the ace, especially when it will be harder than usual to cover because we strip our 6 point to hit there?

Say instead his second blot was on our 3 point, not the ace. Then the double hit would be much stronger, because we’d be hitting on a better point, destroying a better slot, and using a checker from a stacked point to do it. The double hit might be right then, and I would do it in that case.

We might have to double-hit here also, except that we have a good, solid alternative: 22/11. We leave a so-so anchor before he has a chance to develop a strong attacking formation, and leave him at least somewhat unwilling to attack, since in many cases we’ll have both return shots on his side and numerous re-entry rolls that allow us to hit him loose on our 5 point with 6s, 3s, or 1s. If instead he anchors, we will have a good blocking point, which we may need if our small racing lead doesn’t hold up.

I like 22/11 today. If we can escape Junior soon after this, we may be able to force Neil into a defensive game, where we have an advantage we can build step by step until we have an efficient cube. If we instead go tactical now, who knows where it will end up? We could quickly be on the wrong end of a cube ourselves.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 141
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BcC-a-bbe--A---:0:0:-1:63:1:2:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/7 6/3*eq: -0.537
Player:
Opponent:
38.24% (G:9.75% B:0.47%)
61.76% (G:19.25% B:1.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.548...-0.527) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: -0.673 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
34.67% (G:8.10% B:0.35%)
65.33% (G:18.99% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.686...-0.659) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.Rollout113/7 10/7eq: -0.693 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
34.18% (G:7.53% B:0.25%)
65.82% (G:18.64% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.705...-0.680) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
4.Rollout124/15eq: -0.711 (-0.173)
Player:
Opponent:
35.65% (G:7.15% B:0.39%)
64.35% (G:22.82% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.724...-0.698) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
5.Rollout110/4 7/4eq: -0.716 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:
33.83% (G:8.92% B:0.32%)
66.17% (G:19.57% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.729...-0.703) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 6/3*.

I must hit, both to try to defend my checker on the 20 point that I need to cover and also to try to get something going offensively.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 144
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--BbC-a-bcd--a--A:0:0:1:56:1:2:0:11:10
to play 56

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---dD---bbe--A-A-:0:0:1:22:1:2:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout124/22 13/11 6/4(2)eq: +0.298
Player:
Opponent:
55.59% (G:16.71% B:0.66%)
44.41% (G:10.16% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.287...+0.310) - [99.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
2.Rollout113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.276 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
55.37% (G:17.01% B:0.82%)
44.63% (G:12.08% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.265...+0.287) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 8/4 6/4eq: +0.271 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
54.78% (G:16.46% B:0.65%)
45.22% (G:10.48% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.260...+0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
4.Rollout124/20 22/20 13/11eq: +0.257 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
54.71% (G:13.04% B:0.37%)
45.29% (G:7.07% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.247...+0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 24/22 13/11 6/4(2)
[ 3] 24/20 22/20 13/11
[ 2] 13/11(2) 6/4(2)


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/22 13/11 6/4(2)

Ducks like to waddle in pairs, at least in backgammon, and 6/4(2) is the default with two of the deuces in an early set of 2s. Sometimes another play will beat it out (for example, after 64: split and down, all four of the 2s are used to kick his builder/slot off the 9 point and get ahead in the race.) Other times there might be something wrong with 6/4(2): for example, it might strip the 6 point and/or make us leave a blot hanging at some inopportune location. But here, no considerations along those lines apply, so I will start with 6/4(2).

24/22 looks good for another of the 2s, not because we’re that scared on this roll, but because his position might get more threatening in the future, and we may not have the opportunity then to lock up a defense. The 22-anchor isn’t anybody’s favorite, but it’s not bad when it’s poorly blocked the way it is here. It’s certainly better than the ace or deuce anchor, or no anchor with a man or men on the bar. The Golden Anchor is better, but not enough better to burn three of our four deuces to secure it, and in the process pass up making our 4 point. So again, this deuce looks good, and anything else we see has to fight hard to beat it.

13/11 makes a good fourth deuce. It’s a builder for the 5 or bar point, and maybe even the 9 point, plus it’s a slot for a point we wouldn’t mind having, especially as long as our 5 point is still open (as at least one poster has noted). Making the 11 point right now instead of the 22 seems a bad trade, since leaving the 11 point slotted risks only a 64 hit on this turn, and we’re likely to need an anchor a lot longer than the 11 point. Another factor that will occasionally matter: we can survive being hit on the 11 point if we have the anchor much more easily than getting pointed on his board and entering poorly or even not at all.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-C-D--AdC---bbe--B---:0:0:-1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout124/20 13/10eq: -0.449
Player:
Opponent:
41.59% (G:10.00% B:0.51%)
58.41% (G:19.85% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.459...-0.438) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
2.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.552 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
38.98% (G:9.50% B:0.45%)
61.02% (G:21.37% B:1.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.565...-0.539) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 6/2eq: -0.581 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
38.03% (G:9.83% B:0.45%)
61.97% (G:20.27% B:1.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.593...-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
4.Rollout113/6eq: -0.600 (-0.151)
Player:
Opponent:
37.70% (G:9.13% B:0.39%)
62.30% (G:19.99% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.610...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95832907
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 13/10.

The way for me to attempt to balance the position is to make my own advanced anchor. I won’t like it if my opponents make their 5 point whether I am pointed on or not. As nothing else looks remotely constructive, I have to stick my head in the lion’s mouth with 24/20 13/10.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 152
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-D--AcC-a-bbe--B---:0:0:1:65:1:2:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-27 Start of Match #6 Game #3

[Previous][Next]


USBGF Members: 52 24/22 13/8
Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 160
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---dD---bbe--A-A-:0:0:1:22:1:2:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-01-27 End of Match #6 Game #2

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBBBE---bB--abac-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:77.53% (G:2.79% B:0.07%)78.02% (G:2.67% B:0.09%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:22.47% (G:1.43% B:0.03%)21.98% (G:1.46% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.565+1.154
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.948 (-0.052)±0.005 (+0.942..+0.953)
     Double/Take:+1.040 (+0.040)±0.007 (+1.033..+1.047)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Double
[ 0] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

The only reason I can imagine for not doubling today is to take a roll for a 66 to try for a gammon. But what if instead we roll nothing much, and he rolls the 66 or 55? Our gammon chances can’t be high enough to give him a free shot to him slime his way back into serious contention. Time to use the cube to either knock him out, or make him pay to see the slime. Double!


Neil Kazaross passes.

This type of 4 point holding game tends to become a small pass for money when the lead becomes greater than 20 pips. Here I am behind 24 pips which should make this a pass, but I have to consider how awkward my opponents 4’s are and can be for some time. 64 and 54 play quite poorly and certainly would leave me happy to have taken this cube. But there’s another factor — and that is that once in a while I won’t have adequate containment ready if I do hit. Due to that factor I am unsure whether to take this for money or not.

That makes my decision here more simple. Clearly even with what is still likely a 25% takepoint, I have somewhat less recube vig than for money at this score. That causes me to think that I technically have a pass at this score. The other factor is that if I felt it was a toss-up at the score, I don’t need to have a potential for several points to be at stake in a position that is easy to play. But still I think this is a pass at the score. My opponent’s lead is too much and they will usually untangle the position.


USBGF Members win one point. Neil Kazaross leads 9-away/10-away.

USBGF OLM 2017-01-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 128
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBBBC---bB--cbBc-ba---:0:0:1:55:0:2:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout118/8(2)eq: +0.983
Player:
Opponent:
77.40% (G:2.95% B:0.06%)
22.60% (G:1.35% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.982...+0.985) - [97.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.Rollout118/13 18/3eq: +0.980 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
76.72% (G:2.67% B:0.07%)
23.28% (G:1.57% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.977...+0.983) - [2.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 48 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 18/8(2)
[ 2] 18/13 18/3
[ 1] 13/3(2)


Mary Hickey recommends: 18/8(2)

We have been making “waiting plays”, waiting for something like this 55 to arrive. Well, it’s here! Now it’s time to dismantle our anchor which has become a liability because of our racing lead, and plop it onto the 8 point, 18/8(2). No need to diversify by leaving a man back on the mid and playing 8/3, because that dilly builder doesn’t gain us anything new. We already have plenty of 2s and 1s to play, and our big doubles don’t play any better or worse if we reduce the size of the stack on the 8 point, either.

An aside: Does anyone know where David Kettler is? No offense to those who have been posting, including Chuck of course, but the discussions aren’t quite the same without him!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBBBE---bB--cb-c-ba---:0:0:-1:62:0:2:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout19/7 9/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
22.15% (G:1.53% B:0.04%)
77.85% (G:2.66% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [14.3%]
Duration: 56 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 8/6eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.84% (G:1.43% B:0.04%)
78.16% (G:2.67% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [14.3%]
Duration: 51 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout19/3 6/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.70% (G:1.44% B:0.05%)
78.30% (G:3.04% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [14.3%]
Duration: 51 minutes 34 seconds
4.Rollout19/7 8/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.89% (G:1.39% B:0.04%)
79.11% (G:2.95% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [14.3%]
Duration: 44 minutes 51 seconds
5.Rollout18/2 4/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.94% (G:1.38% B:0.04%)
79.06% (G:3.23% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [14.3%]
Duration: 50 minutes 33 seconds
6.Rollout19/3 4/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
21.10% (G:1.44% B:0.04%)
78.90% (G:3.61% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [14.3%]
Duration: 41 minutes 17 seconds
7.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.20% (G:1.23% B:0.05%)
79.80% (G:2.56% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [14.3%]
Duration: 56 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 15191507
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/7 9/3.

9/3 covers my slot and 9/7 diversifies nicely to help me make both my 5 and bar points soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 108
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBBBE---bB--abac-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10