is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 45

11 point match Crawford

pip: 114 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BABBCB------------ace-Cd-:0:0:1:63:7:10:1:11:10

to play 63

1.	Rollout1	23/17 5/2	eq: -0.514
	Player: Opponent: 24.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.70% (G:25.88% B:1.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.515...-0.512) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 06 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/14	eq: -0.534 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 23.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 76.68% (G:26.34% B:0.93%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.535...-0.532) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 23/17 5/2
[ 4] 23/14


Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/17 5/2

We did not hit, but 63 is still a good roll. We cover 5/2 and then play 23/17 so that we do not crunch with 33 or 22.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 23/17 5/2

Gammons don’t count. This move might even be better for money.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 45

11 point match Crawford

pip: 105 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBBBBB----------A-ace-Bd-:0:0:-1:61:7:10:1:11:10

to play 61

1.	Rollout1	6/Off 1/Off	eq: +0.548
	Player: Opponent: 77.38% (G:32.51% B:1.97%) 22.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.546...+0.549) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/Off 5/4	eq: +0.528 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 76.42% (G:25.22% B:0.69%) 23.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.527...+0.530) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/Off	eq: +0.508 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 75.42% (G:25.39% B:0.81%) 24.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.507...+0.510) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/0 1/0.

A difficult ace, since if I bear off two checkers I will be vulnerable to leaving two blots with 62 and 52 next roll. But note that those rolls blot if I play 5/4. If I play 1/0 my 32 is safe but my 65 blots. If I play 1/0 my 63 and 53 now play safely. However, 5/4 seems to make it easier for me to clear the 5 point which leaves me in great shape.

The deuce point game has a tendency to force checkers to the ace point behind the anchor. As a result, when you get hit, you may not have enough checkers removed to have reasonable winning chances. For this reason, it is often correct to bear checkers off the ace point when playing vs a deuce point game unless playing another ace is significantly more safe. While it doesn’t matter here, more gammons are won by bearing off. What does matter is that I cannot be cubed out if hit, so every checker I can take off prior to being hit gives me more “life after death.”

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 38

11 point match Crawford

pip: 105 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBBBBB----------A--ce-Bc-:0:0:1:31:7:10:1:11:10

to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 66

11 point match Crawford

pip: 118 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ADBCB----------b-bce-Cc-:0:0:1:62:7:10:1:11:10

to play 62

1.	Rollout1	3/1	eq: -0.389
	Player: Opponent: 29.65% (G:1.77% B:0.08%) 70.35% (G:18.42% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.391...-0.386) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/3	eq: -0.486 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 24.82% (G:1.72% B:0.07%) 75.18% (G:19.28% B:0.99%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.489...-0.483) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 22 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[41] 3/1
[ 1] 5/3


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 3/1

Preparing a closed board.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 66

11 point match Crawford

pip: 116 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-AACBCB----------b-bce-Cc-:0:0:-1:65:7:10:1:11:10

to play 65

1.	Rollout1	6/1	eq: -0.095
	Player: Opponent: 48.76% (G:11.68% B:0.49%) 51.24% (G:6.85% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.098...-0.092) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3	eq: -0.136 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 50.40% (G:15.71% B:1.08%) 49.60% (G:14.00% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.139...-0.133) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1.

I cannot leave two blots here as I fear it increases my chances to lose a gammon. Therefore, I’ll play 6/1 and hope to roll well if missed.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 61

11 point match Crawford

pip: 114 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BABBCB----------b-ace-Cd-:0:0:-1:44:7:10:1:11:10

to play 44

1.	Rollout1	8/Off(2)	eq: +0.134
	Player: Opponent: 56.69% (G:21.77% B:0.83%) 43.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.132...+0.136) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/4 8/Off 5/1	eq: +0.023 (-0.110)
	Player: Opponent: 51.17% (G:15.99% B:0.38%) 48.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.021...+0.026) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/0(2).

I can’t safety my blot, but I can take off two checkers and leave a position that has many safe rolls next turn if missed.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 45

11 point match Crawford

pip: 114 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BABBCB------------ace-Cd-:0:0:1:63:7:10:1:11:10

to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 73

11 point match Crawford

pip: 123 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=---DBDB----------c-bce-BbA:0:0:1:32:7:10:1:11:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22 3/1	eq: -0.489
	Player: Opponent: 24.83% (G:1.40% B:0.05%) 75.17% (G:24.00% B:1.68%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.491...-0.487) - [100.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 5/2	eq: -0.502 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 24.10% (G:1.53% B:0.07%) 75.90% (G:17.40% B:0.92%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.505...-0.500) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 39 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] b/23 5/2
[15] b/22 3/1


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 3/1

I tend to find that cube actions alter more than checker play at different match scores. When evaluating either at any match score, I always think what would I do for money?

Here for money, we want to cut down Gammons so should enter bar/23 so then would have to play 5/2. However here we are not afraid of losing Gammons so we should make the move that gives us the best chance of winning. We have to consider bar/22 3/1. The big advantage of that play is that we have more numbers that escape and give us more timing. Considering bar/22 3/1 and comparing it to the money play of bar/23 5/2, I really cannot decide which is better. It has to be close, and I could be really wrong but I think that at this score we should enter bar/22 and play 3/1.

If this was a doubles tournament and my opponent felt strongly about either move, I would let them have the final say.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/23 5/2

Bar/22 brings no considerable improvement for our shot chances, since we can only expect a shot on the 3 point next roll: 13 instead of 11 shots. Neil can hit or even point on our blot on the 22 point. After we get hit, we will often fan and then get only an indirect shot with 2 or 4 rolls instead of a direct shot with 11 or more rolls. In total, bar/22 reduces our shot chances considerably. This outweighs the advantage of being more flexible and thus having less risk to crunch. The risk of crunching is not too high since we have 5s to play and, like before, 6s don’t play or escape.

In other words: Make sure you have no checker on the bar when the other guy is forced to leave a shot.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 66

11 point match Crawford

pip: 118 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ADBCB----------b-bce-Cc-:0:0:1:62:7:10:1:11:10

to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 96

11 point match Crawford

pip: 109 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-aACADB-B----a---b-bbe-Bb-:0:0:1:54:7:10:1:11:10

to play 54

1.	Rollout1	8/4 8/3	eq: -0.133
	Player: Opponent: 40.12% (G:6.27% B:0.26%) 59.88% (G:12.05% B:0.73%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.136...-0.130) - [100.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 00 second
2.	Rollout1	23/18 8/4	eq: -0.165 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 37.32% (G:8.57% B:0.45%) 62.68% (G:31.01% B:1.95%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.169...-0.162) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 26 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 8/4 8/3
[14] 23/18 8/4
[ 3] 6/2 6/1*
[ 1] 8/4 6/1*


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4 8/3

We should cover 8/4 with the 4 then consider how to play the 5.

If we play 23/18, Neil can hit us with 6’s, 5’s, 2’s and 1’s – and those are just the direct numbers before we consider combinations.

If we play 8/3 then we only get hit with 1’s and we have killed our 6’s, this has to be the correct move.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/4 8/3

8/4 is obvious. 23/18 aims for outfield control. Is this worth taking the additional risk of leaving extra shots on 5 and abandoning the anchor? Gammons don’t count but getting hit in volatile positions is very expensive. Abandoning the anchor costs a lot since it would keep us guaranteed in the game for a long time in case we’d get hit. The risk of crunching next roll if we stay is small. 5s escape and 6s either escape or don’t play. Other rolls hit or cover. Most of all many 5s play awkward for Neil if we keep the anchor. Let us not turn Neil’s bad rolls into good rolls and play 8/3 hoping he will roll no 6 and in the best case no 1 as well.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 73

11 point match Crawford

pip: 123 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=---DBDB----------c-bce-BbA:0:0:1:32:7:10:1:11:10

to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 98

11 point match Crawford

pip: 117 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ACaDB-B---Aa--ab-bbd-Bb-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	12/4*	eq: -0.194
	Player: Opponent: 34.91% (G:10.47% B:0.59%) 65.09% (G:24.90% B:3.30%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.197...-0.191) - [100.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 56 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/18 5/2	eq: -0.347 (-0.153)
	Player: Opponent: 28.45% (G:8.17% B:0.58%) 71.55% (G:30.62% B:1.15%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.350...-0.344) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 11 seconds
3.	Rollout1	12/7 5/2	eq: -0.401 (-0.207)
	Player: Opponent: 27.91% (G:3.96% B:0.18%) 72.09% (G:12.51% B:0.75%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.404...-0.399) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 36 seconds
4.	Rollout1	23/15	eq: -0.418 (-0.223)
	Player: Opponent: 25.73% (G:6.59% B:0.44%) 74.27% (G:30.96% B:1.23%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.420...-0.415) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 02 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[41] 12/4*
[ 5] 23/18 5/2
[ 3] 23/15
[ 1] 12/7 5/2


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 12/4*

At any match score: Attack and go for it. Neil may miss and we will improve a lot. If he hits it does matter, but not too much since we’re down in the race, hold an anchor and can reenter on two points.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 96

11 point match Crawford

pip: 109 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-aACADB-B----a---b-bbe-Bb-:0:0:1:54:7:10:1:11:10

to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 107

11 point match Crawford

pip: 128 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ACbDB-B-------ab-bbd-Cb-:0:0:1:65:7:10:1:11:10

to play 65

1.	Rollout1	23/12	eq: -0.154
	Player: Opponent: 37.19% (G:9.89% B:0.43%) 62.81% (G:17.41% B:1.52%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.157...-0.151) - [100.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 34 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/18 8/2	eq: -0.362 (-0.208)
	Player: Opponent: 28.70% (G:6.21% B:0.27%) 71.30% (G:27.46% B:3.13%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.366...-0.359) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 03 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: -0.504 (-0.349)
	Player: Opponent: 22.77% (G:4.00% B:0.10%) 77.23% (G:15.40% B:1.07%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.506...-0.501) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 25 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 23/12


Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/12

Playing 8/3 8/2 gives us a 5 point board, but concedes the outfield and makes it so much easier for Neil to escape.

Playing 23/12 keeps our anchor and our 8 point to block some of Neil’s rolls, so that would be my play. Even if we move the spare checker on our 23 point to say our 3 point, so we have to give up the anchor with 23/12, it is still the correct move.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 107

11 point match Crawford

pip: 117 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ACbDB-B---A---ab-bbd-Bb-:0:0:-1:54:7:10:1:11:10

to play 54

1.	Rollout1	21/16 9/5	eq: -0.012
	Player: Opponent: 56.47% (G:23.12% B:3.13%) 43.53% (G:13.72% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.013...-0.010) - [99.1%] Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.	Rollout1	21/12	eq: -0.014 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 57.77% (G:20.55% B:2.24%) 42.23% (G:16.46% B:0.95%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.015...-0.013) - [0.9%] Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/12.

Well now I’ve got to go. So I’ll start with 21/16 and pause to look at the 4. 9/5 cuts down on the blot total, but I fear staying on the 16 point although 3’s are duplicated to hit and cover. If I get attacked inside, that blot may get picked up next turn. 16/12 seems a bit better to me, although now 52 hits, but at least leaves a slew of blots. 55 is also great for them after 16/12. But I still have a slight preference to run all the way.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 98

11 point match Crawford

pip: 117 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ACaDB-B---Aa--ab-bbd-Bb-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10

to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 122

11 point match Crawford

pip: 149 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABbBC-B---bB---b-cbb-BbA:0:0:1:32:7:10:1:11:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 6/3	eq: -0.266
	Player: Opponent: 32.96% (G:7.26% B:0.39%) 67.04% (G:28.55% B:5.69%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.270...-0.262) - [100.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 55 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22 8/6	eq: -0.295 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 31.85% (G:6.59% B:0.37%) 68.15% (G:38.35% B:8.87%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.299...-0.291) - [0.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 19 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/23 5/2	eq: -0.308 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 31.24% (G:6.56% B:0.40%) 68.76% (G:34.83% B:7.43%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.312...-0.303) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 53 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/23 8/5	eq: -0.309 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 31.33% (G:6.29% B:0.26%) 68.67% (G:32.29% B:6.72%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.313...-0.305) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 15 seconds
5.	Rollout1	Bar/22 13/11	eq: -0.315 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 31.06% (G:6.25% B:0.38%) 68.94% (G:43.38% B:11.40%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.319...-0.310) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 11 seconds
6.	Rollout1	Bar/22 3/1	eq: -0.316 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 30.49% (G:7.22% B:0.23%) 69.51% (G:35.40% B:7.59%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.320...-0.312) - [0.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 52 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] b/23 6/3
[ 9] b/22 13/11
[ 3] b/22 3/1
[ 1] b/22 8/6


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 6/3

We would prefer to enter on the 22 point if we could but then we have no good 2 to play so let’s enter Bar/23 then play 6/3 leaving no blots.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/23 6/3

Bar/22 13/11 was my first idea. It is a typical blunder that can happen when playing in “autopilot mode”. This play is pure, does not bury a checker, has flexible distribution, gives the best chances to hit a blot in the outfield (if any and if we are not on the bar when a shot comes up) and losing a gammon does not matter. But it completely neglects the mutual game plans and the situation.

We are down in the race without any priming potential. All our game plans are based on first hitting a shot. Neil has three stripped points outside his homeboard and next roll he will be forced to leave a direct shot with many rolls. Leaving white blots around would help Neil to get home safe by putting one or more of our checkers on the bar.

Bar/22 13/11 leaves 20 shots plus 53 55 and 22 — a total of 24 rolls after which we will find at least one of our checkers on the bar with no direct shot for us and with three further blots chattered around the board. This reduces our shot chances considerably and for the same reason bar/22 8/6 is not as good as the only perfect safe play bar/23 6/3 which allows us to shoot on any shot that Neil has to give next roll.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 122

11 point match Crawford

pip: 144 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ACbBB-B---bB---b-cbb-Cb-:0:0:-1:63:7:10:1:11:10

to play 63

1.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: +0.196
	Player: Opponent: 63.87% (G:27.66% B:5.39%) 36.13% (G:7.93% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.194...+0.197) - [69.3%] Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
2.	Rollout1	21/18 21/15	eq: +0.195 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 65.55% (G:32.22% B:7.79%) 34.45% (G:11.27% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.193...+0.197) - [30.7%] Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
3.	Rollout1	13/10 13/7	eq: +0.178 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 63.32% (G:26.85% B:4.16%) 36.68% (G:8.56% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.177...+0.180) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/4.

Something has to give. I have three choices. I can run both checkers and will be in fine shape if I get away with it. 6’s and 1’s are duplicated, but I don’t like the added 3 shot. Just too many rolls to hit me and without anchor I can lose a gammon. So I will retain the anchor, which puts pressure on their stripped points as well.

My 6 will be 13/7 and now I have to compare 13/10 vs. 7/4. Both leave 13 shots but 7/4 leaves only one blot and one fewer hit and cover jokers. 13/10 leaves me quite a few nice rolls to make a 5 prime when missed. However, by playing 7/4 my blot on the midpoint pressures their stripped midpoint. 7/4 looks a bit more natural to me, but it is the fact that I only leave one blot that steers me to make this play. In addition they now have fewer ways to hit me and escape that spare from my 2 point.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 113

11 point match Crawford

pip: 128 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ACbDB-B---a----b-cbc-Cb-:0:0:-1:42:7:10:1:11:10

to play 42

1.	Rollout1	13/9 6/4	eq: +0.239
	Player: Opponent: 66.10% (G:19.07% B:1.85%) 33.90% (G:8.09% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.235...+0.242) - [100.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 31 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/7	eq: +0.231 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 65.48% (G:18.01% B:1.65%) 34.52% (G:7.68% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.227...+0.234) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 10 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 6/4.

I have to further weaken my position here. Breaking my 8 point and reducing my containment is unthinkable so my 4 has to be 13/9. After 13/9 I can play 9/7 which might win the beauty contest, but leaves nine more shots and six hit/cover jokers, so 9/7 is likely not best for winning the game. So that leaves 6/4, which is so ugly it hurts my eyes but maybe when not hit, I can roll something better next turn. Perhaps their 8 point will break and I can flee from the anchor into their outfield with relative safety. If 9/7 meant fewer extra shots it would be my choice and note that it also can result in me rolling something awkward when not hit. This looks close to me, but I will go with the ugly play that gets hit 25% less often with their next roll.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 107

11 point match Crawford

pip: 128 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ACbDB-B-------ab-bbd-Cb-:0:0:1:65:7:10:1:11:10

to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 138

11 point match Crawford

pip: 154 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABbBC-A---bC---cbd-b-AB-:0:0:1:52:7:10:1:11:10

to play 52

1.	Rollout1	24/22 13/8	eq: -0.243
	Player: Opponent: 33.96% (G:7.53% B:0.26%) 66.04% (G:27.10% B:3.81%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.248...-0.239) - [100.0%] Duration: 40 minutes 28 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/22 8/3	eq: -0.311 (-0.067)
	Player: Opponent: 30.91% (G:6.92% B:0.27%) 69.09% (G:29.51% B:4.13%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.315...-0.306) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[46] 24/22 13/8
[ 1] 13/8 3/1


Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 13/8

A really simple choice, we need to remake the 8 point then chose a 2.

13/11 would leave a blot on the 13 point, 3/1 ruins our board, so we should just play 24/22, which splits in front of 11 checkers but gives us the best chance to get an advanced anchor.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 138

11 point match Crawford

pip: 147 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABbBC-B---bB---cbd-bAAA-:0:0:-1:61:7:10:1:11:10

to play 61

1.	Rollout1	8/2* 2/1*	eq: +0.111
	Player: Opponent: 60.68% (G:26.30% B:2.82%) 39.32% (G:10.00% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.106...+0.115) - [100.0%] Duration: 41 minutes 51 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/7 8/7	eq: +0.075 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 58.15% (G:20.47% B:2.61%) 41.85% (G:8.58% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.070...+0.079) - [0.0%] Duration: 40 minutes 10 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/6	eq: +0.039 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 56.68% (G:20.37% B:2.14%) 43.32% (G:9.16% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.035...+0.044) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 44 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2*/1*.

The point I want in this position is my 5 point, and this roll doesn’t help me in that regard. If I play 13/7, I leave a direct shot in my outfield and my ace forces me to take a builder away. I also could lose outfield control.

In spite of the score where I cannot use a gammon, it seems best to hit two checkers. If this turns into a blitz, a closeout is still an easy way to win.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 131

11 point match Crawford

pip: 148 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABbBC-B---bB---bbd-bAAaA:0:0:-1:32:7:10:1:11:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	6/3* 3/1	eq: +0.275
	Player: Opponent: 67.91% (G:40.34% B:3.20%) 32.09% (G:8.13% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.270...+0.279) - [100.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 01 second
2.	Rollout1	6/1	eq: +0.124 (-0.151)
	Player: Opponent: 61.10% (G:29.92% B:1.83%) 38.90% (G:9.56% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.119...+0.128) - [0.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 17 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: +0.023 (-0.251)
	Player: Opponent: 56.50% (G:22.74% B:2.39%) 43.50% (G:10.40% B:0.46%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.019...+0.027) - [0.0%] Duration: 36 minutes 20 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3*/1.

I can safely pick and pass, continuing my attack and also gaining pips.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 126

11 point match Crawford

pip: 149 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABbBC-B---bB---bbc-b-BbA:0:0:-1:11:7:10:1:11:10

to play 11

1.	Rollout1	8/5 6/5	eq: +0.236
	Player: Opponent: 65.74% (G:31.09% B:5.73%) 34.26% (G:7.64% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.234...+0.238) - [93.6%] Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
2.	Rollout1	7/5(2)	eq: +0.234 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 65.68% (G:31.32% B:5.56%) 34.32% (G:7.71% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.233...+0.236) - [6.4%] Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/5(2).

I have two good ways to make my 5 point, and somewhat prefer the blotless play since they have a three point board and since if I get hit with seven stripped points, I may enter badly.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 122

11 point match Crawford

pip: 149 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABbBC-B---bB---b-cbb-BbA:0:0:1:32:7:10:1:11:10

to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 145

11 point match Crawford

pip: 161 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--aBaBC-B---cC---bbd-b-AAA:0:0:1:61:7:10:1:11:10

to play 61

1.	Rollout1	Bar/24 8/2*	eq: -0.084
	Player: Opponent: 39.25% (G:12.72% B:0.65%) 60.75% (G:25.04% B:7.00%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.089...-0.079) - [100.0%] Duration: 55 minutes 33 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/24 13/7	eq: -0.109 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 38.36% (G:12.04% B:0.79%) 61.64% (G:26.48% B:6.29%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.114...-0.104) - [0.0%] Duration: 50 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] b/24 8/2*
[ 5] b/24 13/7


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/24 13/7

I am curious as to the outcome of the rollout at high settings. XG++ hits by a small margin and a rollout at 3 ply/XG Roller prefers my play by 0.001. Over the board and even after seeing XG++, I would play b/24 8/2* for the reasons as follows:

Having only three points made and nine checkers in the zone, our own attack is of medium force. In order to hit we have to trade in our 8 point which is –being a permanent asset and blocking Neil´s checkers in our homeboard — very important. Getting hit back on the 2 or on the 8 point costs much more than getting hit on the 7 point since we weakened our position considerably by relinquishing the 8 point.

In addition, Neil’s priming and attacking threats are moderate. He has only a two point board and a bad distribution of his builders. Thus it is not too important to play a tempo move.

On the other hand the best possible outcome would be Neil fanning. But this happens only in 9 of 36 rolls and I feel better to have a stronger position in the remaining 25 rolls.

Maybe this position turns out to be a reference position for the problem of trading in the 8 point in order to hit or playing a passive game like I propose.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 147

11 point match Crawford

pip: 154 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=a-ABaBC-A---cC---bbd-b-AB-:0:0:-1:54:7:10:1:11:10

to play 54

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/8	eq: +0.237
	Player: Opponent: 65.78% (G:24.37% B:3.81%) 34.22% (G:7.66% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.233...+0.241) - [100.0%] Duration: 45 minutes 20 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/16	eq: +0.024 (-0.213)
	Player: Opponent: 59.49% (G:22.41% B:4.91%) 40.51% (G:16.11% B:0.63%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.019...+0.029) - [0.0%] Duration: 49 minutes 41 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 13/8.

A fine roll for me anchoring and bringing down a builder and giving me a nice advantage in the game.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 138

11 point match Crawford

pip: 154 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABbBC-A---bC---cbd-b-AB-:0:0:1:52:7:10:1:11:10

to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 146

11 point match Crawford

pip: 145 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BaBC-C---cC---bbd-b--B-:0:0:1:41:7:10:1:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	24/23 8/4*	eq: +0.238
	Player: Opponent: 51.54% (G:20.10% B:1.60%) 48.46% (G:18.12% B:2.61%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.233...+0.243) - [100.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 22 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/4* 4/3	eq: +0.186 (-0.052)
	Player: Opponent: 48.67% (G:20.65% B:1.18%) 51.33% (G:16.29% B:2.13%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.182...+0.190) - [0.0%] Duration: 41 minutes 03 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/4* 6/5	eq: +0.183 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 49.05% (G:19.62% B:1.40%) 50.95% (G:18.40% B:3.46%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.178...+0.188) - [0.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 43 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/4* 5/4	eq: +0.164 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 48.39% (G:19.05% B:1.20%) 51.61% (G:18.62% B:3.81%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.159...+0.169) - [0.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 35 seconds
5.	Rollout1	24/23 24/20	eq: +0.113 (-0.125)
	Player: Opponent: 48.11% (G:14.62% B:1.30%) 51.89% (G:16.65% B:1.61%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.109...+0.117) - [0.0%] Duration: 46 minutes 41 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 24/23 8/4*
[14] 8/4*/3
[ 2] 24/23 24/20
[ 1] 13/8


Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 8/4*

We have to fight for the 5 and 4 points. We need to attack 8/4* then the best 1 is to split 24/23, putting pressure on Neil’s 8 point. If we are hit, then having split means we have more chances of getting an anchor.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/23 8/4*

More or less reasonable alternative moves are 13/8, 24/23 13/9, 24/23 24/20, 24/20 6/5, and 8/4*/3. The problem with the non-hitting moves is that Neil can freely move and establish an anchor, make a point or attack. Most of all we do not really develop our own position. After any non-hitting move we are not favourite since Neil has so many opportunities.

Thus we have to hit for both, defence and offence. If Neil does not enter on the four point, we will be the in good shape (except if he rolls aces) and if he enters or hits back we do not lose much since the game plan for both sides is either priming or attacking instead of running due to the ample contact.

What about the ace?

4/3 plays safe but if we want to make the 4 point we cannot expect to make it without leaving a shot. And we need the 4 point badly. We rather take chances now than later. Later might be too late if Neil establishes an anchor. Later might be more dangerous if Neil improves his board. So we leave the checker on the 4 point.

6/5 is safe but does not improve our play in Neil’s homeboard.

24/23 brings maximum flexibility but includes the risk of being double hit if Neil rolls a 43, 44, 45 or 46, save of the question if Neil should double hit with all these numbers. Since we do not have too many spare checkers in the outfield we need flexibility. When we get hit only one time we will have more chances to establish an advanced anchor in Neil’s homeboard. This is worth taking some extra chances.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 145

11 point match Crawford

pip: 161 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--aBaBC-B---cC---bbd-b-AAA:0:0:1:61:7:10:1:11:10

to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 152

11 point match Crawford

pip: 153 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--aBD-D---cC---cbe----B-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	8/3 6/3	eq: +0.229
	Player: Opponent: 52.43% (G:17.47% B:0.99%) 47.57% (G:12.41% B:1.67%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.224...+0.233) - [100.0%] Duration: 51 minutes 10 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/16	eq: +0.179 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 52.24% (G:12.99% B:0.82%) 47.76% (G:12.93% B:1.44%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.175...+0.182) - [0.0%] Duration: 59 minutes 16 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/21 6/1*	eq: +0.150 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 50.00% (G:14.62% B:0.46%) 50.00% (G:14.05% B:1.63%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.146...+0.154) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
4.	Rollout1	24/21 13/8	eq: +0.144 (-0.085)
	Player: Opponent: 50.07% (G:13.83% B:0.80%) 49.93% (G:12.88% B:1.28%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.140...+0.148) - [0.0%] Duration: 55 minutes 27 seconds
5.	Rollout1	24/21 8/3	eq: +0.138 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 49.62% (G:14.17% B:0.70%) 50.38% (G:15.40% B:2.18%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.134...+0.142) - [0.0%] Duration: 56 minutes 53 seconds
6.	Rollout1	8/5 6/1*	eq: +0.136 (-0.093)
	Player: Opponent: 48.59% (G:15.98% B:0.44%) 51.41% (G:14.94% B:1.83%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.132...+0.140) - [0.0%] Duration: 54 minutes 44 seconds
7.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.133 (-0.096)
	Player: Opponent: 48.53% (G:15.76% B:0.71%) 51.47% (G:14.02% B:1.65%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.128...+0.137) - [0.0%] Duration: 47 minutes 54 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 8/3 6/3
[ 2] 24/16
[ 1] 13/5


Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/3

We have 10 checkers in the zone and would like to attack. Neil has 10 checkers in the attack zone and would like to attack. If we split or run then Neil would like to attack us.

So we should just make the 3 point with 8/3 6/3. This is the play for money. After doing the money analysis then we can think about how we can adjust it for the particular score. Here at 4a 1a Crawford, we would like to score a gammon so we have even more reason to play 8/3 6/3.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/3 6/3

A beginner will immediately jump on this play without considering any alternative. Make a point is normally best play since it creates a permanent asset.

Only the fact that this point is behind Neil’s advanced checker makes us look out for an alternative play. Hitting might be an alternative move but we have to hit on the ace point what is no good. Running 24/16 escapes one checker but it seems less powerful than creating a strong 3 point board with considerable gammon threats.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 146

11 point match Crawford

pip: 145 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BaBC-C---cC---bbd-b--B-:0:0:1:41:7:10:1:11:10

to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 159

11 point match Crawford

pip: 159 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--aAE-C---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:51:7:10:1:11:10

to play 51

1.	Rollout1	13/8 6/5	eq: +0.257
	Player: Opponent: 54.31% (G:16.60% B:0.86%) 45.69% (G:12.44% B:1.84%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.252...+0.262) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.	Rollout1	6/5 6/1*	eq: +0.234 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 53.05% (G:16.82% B:0.59%) 46.95% (G:13.58% B:1.78%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.229...+0.238) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 13/8 6/5
[12] 6/5 6/1*
[ 1] 6/1* 5/4*
[ 1] 13/8 5/4*


Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 6/5

We have to play 6/5 with the 1. Then as we only have nine checkers in the zone, we should play 13/8 bringing another checker into the zone.

If we alter the position to bring another checker into the zone before the roll by moving a checker 13/8, then we would have 10 checkers in the zone which is enough to launch an attack so then we could play 6/1*.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/8 6/5

Make the 5 point and do not hit too deep (6/1*) unless you have a strong reason for doing so.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 152

11 point match Crawford

pip: 153 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--aBD-D---cC---cbe----B-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10

to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 158

11 point match Crawford

pip: 167 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	13/5*	eq: +0.110
	Player: Opponent: 48.26% (G:14.09% B:0.88%) 51.74% (G:18.68% B:2.87%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.106...+0.115) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/5* 6/1*	eq: +0.069 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 46.40% (G:13.73% B:0.55%) 53.60% (G:20.06% B:3.27%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.064...+0.074) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
3.	Rollout1	8/3 6/3	eq: +0.066 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 46.94% (G:12.36% B:0.77%) 53.06% (G:15.73% B:2.02%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.062...+0.070) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/5*
[10] 8/3 6/3
[ 2] 8/5* 6/1*


Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/5*

We need to fight for the 5 and 4 points, so here 13/5* is the best choice.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/5*

13/5*: XG says: This play seems to be best no matter what the score is. It wins more games and more gammons. How to find that out over the board? Very difficult, maybe impossible.

The general guideline In the opening (no point made yet) is as follows: Play aggressive in order to make a homeboard point, make an anchor, make an outfield point, escape one checker, stop the opponent from achieving his goals (tempo hit).

With this position we have come to a dilemma because 8/3 6/3 makes a homeboard point which is not too deep to be made in the opening in general. The merits of a permanent asset (point) add up every roll and normally outweigh the merits of a tactical play (tempo hit).

The more tactical play 8/5* exposes the checker to 22 shots resulting in black being favorite if he hits back. Only after 14 rolls of Neil we will be the favorite. We then can make the 5 point with 26 shots and have further good rolls.

The good thing about hitting even if Neil hits back is that we disturbed him from developing his position. After we make the 3 point almost all rolls play good or black: 15 rolls establish his 20 point; 14 rolls make a homeboard point or the bar point; 7 rolls escape the checker from blacks 20 point and only 1.2 and 1:5 play a little awkward.

We can conclude that 8/5* works very well in an offensive way after the 14 rolls of Neil that miss our shot and it works very well in a defensive way after the 22 rolls that hit our shot. Thus this play helps us after every possible roll of Neil!

This is not the case with 8/3 6/3: This play only works somehow well when Neil will not establish his 20 point. If he does our checkers on the three point will be kind of buried for a long time, because they are placed behind Neil’s checkers and cannot be used in order to block Neil or as landing points in a race. Of course if Neil will not make the anchor he still will have all other good rolls except 1:2 and 1:5.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 163

11 point match Crawford

pip: 159 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=aa---AE-C---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:-1:31:7:10:1:11:10

to play 31

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21	eq: -0.269
	Player: Opponent: 45.37% (G:12.59% B:1.89%) 54.63% (G:17.11% B:1.05%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.273...-0.264) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/24 13/10	eq: -0.283 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 44.87% (G:14.10% B:1.70%) 55.13% (G:17.45% B:2.23%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.288...-0.278) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.	Rollout1	Bar/22 24/23	eq: -0.286 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 45.02% (G:12.55% B:1.58%) 54.98% (G:18.11% B:0.98%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.290...-0.281) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76649427 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21.

The correct play here for money is to split all the way up trying for a good anchor to counteract their 5 point. I don’t think this gammon save-like score will change that.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 159

11 point match Crawford

pip: 159 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--aAE-C---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:51:7:10:1:11:10

to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 72

11 point match

pip: 97 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--BBBBBB-A--A--b---dcbAac-:1:1:1:61:7:8:0:11:10

to play 61

1.	Rollout1	12/5	eq: -0.578
	Player: Opponent: 17.00% (G:0.77% B:0.03%) 83.00% (G:1.36% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.580...-0.576) - [95.7%] Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.	Rollout1	12/6 9/8	eq: -0.580 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 16.93% (G:0.76% B:0.05%) 83.07% (G:1.29% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.581...-0.578) - [4.2%] Duration: 55 minutes 49 seconds
3.	Rollout1	12/6 7/6	eq: -0.581 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 16.78% (G:0.42% B:0.02%) 83.22% (G:1.19% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.583...-0.580) - [0.1%] Duration: 46 minutes 05 seconds
4.	Rollout2	12/11 9/3	eq: -0.591 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 16.71% (G:0.65% B:0.05%) 83.29% (G:1.59% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.594...-0.587) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds
5.	Rollout2	9/3 7/6	eq: -0.595 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 16.50% (G:0.42% B:0.01%) 83.50% (G:1.49% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.598...-0.591) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
6.	Rollout2	12/11 7/1	eq: -0.597 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 16.30% (G:0.63% B:0.02%) 83.70% (G:2.34% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.601...-0.593) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 57 seconds
7.	Rollout2	7/6 7/1	eq: -0.601 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 16.11% (G:0.40% B:0.01%) 83.89% (G:2.03% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.605...-0.597) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds
8.	Rollout2	9/8 7/1	eq: -0.602 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 16.24% (G:0.63% B:0.02%) 83.76% (G:2.45% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.606...-0.598) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 07 seconds
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 12/6 9/8
[ 5] 12/5
[ 1] 12/6 7/6
[ 1] 12/11 9/3
[ 1] 12/11 7/1
[ 1] 7/6 7/1


Grant Hoffman recommends: 12/6 9/8

We need to stay back on the 22 point. We need to keep our 6 prime so we should move the 6 by playing 12/6, then 9/8 as it keeps the prime intact.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 12/6 9/8

The same ideas as last roll apply. No need to escape but we should not risk unnecessary gammons by playing 7/1 7/6 or 9/2 for example. A six prime is in place and there is nothing left to do but to bear in to the six point without wasting pips. 12/6 7/6 would be overplaying this idea since we can afford to keep the six prime.

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 68

11 point match

pip: 93 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--BBBBCBA------b---ccb-bcA:1:1:-1:22:7:8:0:11:10

to play 22

1.	Rollout1	10/4 6/4	eq: +0.867
	Player: Opponent: 93.57% (G:3.17% B:0.04%) 6.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.865...+0.869) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/2	eq: +0.824 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 92.05% (G:3.07% B:0.04%) 7.95% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.821...+0.827) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 46 seconds
3.	Rollout1	10/6(2)	eq: +0.811 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 91.41% (G:3.54% B:0.02%) 8.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.808...+0.814) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4 6/4.

I have a nice safe play here that won’t blot next turn and will assure that I can take checkers off soon. After 10/4 6/4, the only roll that doesn’t safety my blot next turn is 21 and that roll closes my board. This play has to be better than bringing both checkers in which leaves me a blotting 66 and awkward rolls containing a 3 and a large number.

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 52

11 point match

pip: 93 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--BBBBCBA----------bcd-ccA:1:1:-1:51:7:8:0:11:10

to play 51

1.	Rollout1	6/5 6/1	eq: +0.925
	Player: Opponent: 96.12% (G:2.98% B:0.02%) 3.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.924...+0.927) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/Off 1/Off	eq: +0.887 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 93.57% (G:5.66% B:0.06%) 6.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.885...+0.888) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 36 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 6/1.

I should not be taking slight risks to win an unlikely gammon when they have a prime and most of their checkers in their homeboard. If I get hit, I will be forced to drop the cube because of the score unless I have many checkers off.

6/5 6/1 is clear and very safe for now.

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 46

11 point match

pip: 93 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--BBBBCBA-----------dd-cdA:1:1:-1:63:7:8:0:11:10

to play 63

1.	Rollout1	5/2 5/Off	eq: +0.897
	Player: Opponent: 94.74% (G:2.80% B:0.02%) 5.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.896...+0.899) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 00 second
2.	Rollout1	5/Off 4/1	eq: +0.886 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 94.32% (G:3.19% B:0.02%) 5.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.885...+0.887) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/2 5/0.

This is a rather standard play when I must avoid being hit and have almost no gammon chances. It should be slightly better to try to clear my 5 point next roll with 5/0 5/2.

If I play 4/1, I do have two fewer blotting rolls next turn but often will end up with the same four blotting rolls after next turn. This can be referred to as double jeopardy.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 167

11 point match Crawford

pip: 167 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:54:7:10:1:11:10

to play 54

1.	Rollout1	24/20 13/8	eq: -0.142
	Player: Opponent: 50.17% (G:16.77% B:2.49%) 49.83% (G:14.12% B:0.82%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.144...-0.140) - [94.9%] Duration: 8 hours 07 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/15	eq: -0.144 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 50.12% (G:14.66% B:2.02%) 49.88% (G:14.24% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.146...-0.142) - [5.1%] Duration: 7 hours 56 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/9 13/8	eq: -0.156 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 49.63% (G:17.90% B:2.53%) 50.37% (G:14.44% B:1.37%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.161...-0.152) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 55814307 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 55814307 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 13/8.

I almost always split an opening 54 with the only exception being when I trail at a lopsided score where I am seeking more gammon wins. That is not the case here.

is Neil Kazaross score: 10 pip: 158

11 point match Crawford

pip: 167 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10

to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 77

11 point match

pip: 104 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABBBBBAA---Aab---ccbAac-:1:1:1:61:7:8:0:11:10

to play 61

1.	Rollout1	13/12 8/2	eq: -0.597
	Player: Opponent: 16.58% (G:0.73% B:0.03%) 83.42% (G:2.13% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.599...-0.595) - [57.4%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/6	eq: -0.598 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 16.38% (G:0.68% B:0.03%) 83.62% (G:2.05% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.600...-0.596) - [23.6%] Duration: 55 minutes 48 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/2 7/6	eq: -0.598 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 16.51% (G:0.55% B:0.03%) 83.49% (G:2.06% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.600...-0.596) - [18.9%] Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
4.	Rollout2	9/2	eq: -0.604 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 16.52% (G:0.61% B:0.03%) 83.48% (G:2.34% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.608...-0.600) - [0.1%] Duration: 10 minutes 13 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/7 9/8	eq: -0.606 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 16.30% (G:0.69% B:0.03%) 83.70% (G:2.28% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.610...-0.601) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 20 seconds
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 13/12 8/2
[ 7] 13/7 9/8
[ 3] 13/6
[ 3] 9/2
[ 2] 22/16 13/12


Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/12 8/2

After the roll, Neil will be ahead in the race by 20 pips and on roll. So a Racing Game plan should not be one we are seeking. We need to stay for the contact, so we should play 8/2 with the 6 giving us a great board and a 6 prime.

After that the 1 should probably just be played 13/12 which does get a crossover.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/7 9/8

The race is off. We stay in Neil’s home board for best shot chances. Gammon threats do not force us to run into the double shot. 13/7 9/8 makes a 6 prime with least gammon risk.

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 77

11 point match

pip: 97 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--BBBBBB-A--A-ab---ccbAac-:1:1:-1:41:7:8:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	11/6	eq: +0.531
	Player: Opponent: 81.50% (G:1.23% B:0.01%) 18.50% (G:0.59% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.527...+0.535) - [100.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/10 6/2	eq: +0.452 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 78.27% (G:0.98% B:0.02%) 21.73% (G:0.60% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.447...+0.456) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 29 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/6.

You have to bring them in to take them off, so 11/6 is clear. I may have to leave a fatal 7 shot next roll, but I also may be able to pick and pass or clear my 10 point safely or decide to stall with some rolls.

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 72

11 point match

pip: 97 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--BBBBBB-A--A--b---dcbAac-:1:1:1:61:7:8:0:11:10

to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 93

11 point match

pip: 104 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABBBBBAA---Aac-b-cc-A-c-:0:0:-1:00:7:8:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.22% (G:2.78% B:0.04%)	71.92% (G:2.67% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.78% (G:1.79% B:0.15%)	28.08% (G:1.87% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.449	+1.319
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.804 (-0.076)	±0.008 (+0.796..+0.812)
Double/Take:	+0.880	±0.012 (+0.868..+0.892)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.120)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 48 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] Take
[ 6] Pass


Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

We are in trouble but we could get a shot or still win the race. Neil has three checkers on his 1 point, which means he has some wastage.

We also have a strong board so any hit by us will be powerful.

Finally, we are playing a better player so we should be more inclined to take and shorten the match.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: Take

My first idea was to pass and I wrote this: We are down 11 pips in a position that is borderline in a race for money. The take point is higher than for money, since we are facing the Crawford game in case of a loss. The crucial question now is who benefits more from the existing contact, i.e. do our shot chances outweigh Neil’s attacking chances or vice versa? Neil will leave no shot this roll an we still be exposed for one or more rolls to his attack an then maybe get one indirect shot. In order to get a direct shot we will first have to survive one or more attacks. Not enough.

I missed the fact that Neil buried already three checkers on his ace point. This lack of builders weakens his attack considerably and increases our short term chances.

Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

I am ahead 11 pips and have a good diversification of pointing and blocking rolls and I am not likely to soon be forced to leave a direct shot. This is a must double.

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 93

11 point match

pip: 104 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABBBBBAA---Aac-b-cc-A-c-:1:1:-1:44:7:8:0:11:10

to play 44

1.	Rollout1	10/2 8/4(2)	eq: +0.345
	Player: Opponent: 73.67% (G:3.22% B:0.08%) 26.33% (G:2.30% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.340...+0.350) - [100.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 01 second
2.	Rollout1	10/6(2) 10/2	eq: +0.286 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 72.37% (G:2.44% B:0.03%) 27.63% (G:2.61% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.281...+0.291) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 17 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/2 8/4(2).

This is lots of pips but I have to leave an 8 shot. 10/2 8/4(2) looks natural but unblocks their hitting 53 so I have to look at 10/6(2) 10/2. The safer play seems to leave me awkward and stacked and lacking my 4 point, and looks likely to run into trouble later. I think I have to leave two extra shots now. At least if I am hit, 12 rolls hit back, whereas later if hit they will often have a full prime.

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 77

11 point match

pip: 104 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABBBBBAA---Aab---ccbAac-:1:1:1:61:7:8:0:11:10

to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 93

11 point match

pip: 111 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABBBBBA----Bac-b-cc---cA:0:0:1:43:7:8:0:11:10

to play 43

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22 13/9	eq: -0.868
	Player: Opponent: 28.28% (G:1.72% B:0.11%) 71.72% (G:2.81% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.881...-0.855) - [100.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 46 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22 8/4	eq: -0.899 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 27.90% (G:1.73% B:0.07%) 72.10% (G:3.03% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.912...-0.885) - [0.0%] Duration: 47 minutes 14 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/22 7/3	eq: -0.944 (-0.076)
	Player: Opponent: 27.40% (G:1.74% B:0.06%) 72.60% (G:3.38% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.957...-0.931) - [0.0%] Duration: 47 minutes 03 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/22 6/2	eq: -0.970 (-0.102)
	Player: Opponent: 27.17% (G:1.66% B:0.05%) 72.83% (G:3.38% B:0.05%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.983...-0.956) - [0.0%] Duration: 37 minutes 25 seconds
5.	Rollout1	Bar/22 5/1	eq: -1.000 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 25.54% (G:1.73% B:0.06%) 74.46% (G:6.12% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.009...-0.991) - [0.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 49 seconds
6.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/10	eq: -1.000 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 23.10% (G:1.05% B:0.04%) 76.90% (G:3.21% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 45 seconds
7.	Rollout1	Bar/18	eq: -1.000 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 23.09% (G:1.13% B:0.05%) 76.91% (G:3.32% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%] Duration: 43 minutes 34 seconds
8.	Rollout1	Bar/21 8/5	eq: -1.000 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 22.81% (G:0.95% B:0.02%) 77.19% (G:3.54% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.006...-0.994) - [0.0%] Duration: 37 minutes 27 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Rolled for both No double and Double Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] b/22 13/9
[ 3] b/21 13/10
[ 1] b/22 8/4


Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 13/9

After the roll we will be behind in the race by 11 pips, with Neil on roll. We should not be racing but rather seeking contact, so we should stay back as far as possible which means we should enter on the 22 point with the 3. This means we have only three builders aimed at us not 4.

We should play the 4 by playing 13/9, which moves a checker closer to home. Moving to the 18 point also moves closer to home, but if we are hit there we lose all the pips.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/22 13/9

Again moving up to the 18 point leaves a triple shot for Neil. Only two of Neil’s builders point on the 23 point and we hope to exit with 6 or 4 next roll or even better hit a shot. 13/9 is self evident.

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 93

11 point match

pip: 104 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABBBBBAA---Aac-b-cc-A-c-:0:0:-1:00:7:8:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 110

11 point match

pip: 116 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=---BBBBABA--bBba-b-db-A-b-:0:0:1:62:7:8:0:11:10

to play 62

1.	Rollout1	9/7 8/2	eq: -0.383
	Player: Opponent: 40.05% (G:3.61% B:0.05%) 59.95% (G:4.65% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.386...-0.379) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 hours 34 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/6 8/2	eq: -0.393 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 39.73% (G:3.87% B:0.07%) 60.27% (G:4.78% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.396...-0.389) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 05 minutes
3.	Rollout1	9/3 7/5	eq: -0.393 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 39.47% (G:3.50% B:0.06%) 60.53% (G:4.51% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.396...-0.390) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 12 minutes
4.	Rollout2	8/2 7/5	eq: -0.403 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 39.64% (G:3.73% B:0.07%) 60.36% (G:5.02% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.412...-0.394) - [0.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 05 seconds
5.	Rollout2	9/3 8/6	eq: -0.411 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 39.30% (G:3.75% B:0.05%) 60.70% (G:4.57% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.420...-0.402) - [0.0%] Duration: 27 minutes 58 seconds
6.	Rollout2	8/2 4/2	eq: -0.416 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 39.37% (G:3.87% B:0.11%) 60.63% (G:5.34% B:0.13%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.426...-0.407) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 15 seconds
7.	Rollout2	8/6 7/1	eq: -0.420 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 38.70% (G:3.90% B:0.05%) 61.30% (G:5.36% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.429...-0.411) - [0.0%] Duration: 38 minutes 18 seconds
8.	Rollout2	9/1	eq: -0.430 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 38.51% (G:3.79% B:0.05%) 61.49% (G:5.39% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.439...-0.422) - [0.0%] Duration: 36 minutes 54 seconds
9.	Rollout2	7/1 3/1	eq: -0.456 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 38.01% (G:3.70% B:0.03%) 61.99% (G:5.92% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.465...-0.448) - [0.0%] Duration: 36 minutes 12 seconds
10.	Rollout2	13/11 13/7	eq: -0.478 (-0.096)
	Player: Opponent: 37.65% (G:3.16% B:0.08%) 62.35% (G:2.95% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.488...-0.469) - [0.0%] Duration: 56 minutes 51 seconds
11.	Rollout2	8/2 6/4	eq: -0.491 (-0.109)
	Player: Opponent: 37.00% (G:4.39% B:0.15%) 63.00% (G:7.50% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.500...-0.482) - [0.0%] Duration: 44 minutes 19 seconds
12.	Rollout2	9/3 4/2	eq: -0.498 (-0.115)
	Player: Opponent: 37.03% (G:4.41% B:0.09%) 62.97% (G:7.83% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.507...-0.488) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 09 seconds
13.	Rollout2	8/2 5/3	eq: -0.501 (-0.118)
	Player: Opponent: 36.67% (G:4.50% B:0.12%) 63.33% (G:7.44% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.510...-0.491) - [0.0%] Duration: 42 minutes 27 seconds
14.	Rollout2	9/3 6/4	eq: -0.515 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 35.80% (G:5.06% B:0.18%) 64.20% (G:9.18% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.524...-0.505) - [0.0%] Duration: 50 minutes 15 seconds
15.	Rollout2	7/1 4/2	eq: -0.528 (-0.146)
	Player: Opponent: 35.72% (G:5.16% B:0.13%) 64.28% (G:9.52% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.538...-0.519) - [0.0%] Duration: 50 minutes 06 seconds
16.	Rollout2	8/2 3/1	eq: -0.534 (-0.152)
	Player: Opponent: 35.29% (G:7.14% B:0.18%) 64.71% (G:11.13% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.543...-0.525) - [0.0%] Duration: 57 minutes 43 seconds
17.	Rollout2	9/3 5/3	eq: -0.541 (-0.159)
	Player: Opponent: 35.07% (G:5.16% B:0.14%) 64.93% (G:10.22% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.550...-0.532) - [0.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 17 seconds
18.	Rollout2	7/1 6/4	eq: -0.544 (-0.162)
	Player: Opponent: 35.34% (G:5.54% B:0.18%) 64.66% (G:11.62% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.554...-0.535) - [0.0%] Duration: 54 minutes 35 seconds
19.	Rollout2	7/1 5/3	eq: -0.555 (-0.172)
	Player: Opponent: 35.09% (G:6.67% B:0.25%) 64.91% (G:13.46% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.565...-0.545) - [0.0%] Duration: 57 minutes 06 seconds
20.	Rollout2	22/16 9/7	eq: -0.587 (-0.205)
	Player: Opponent: 35.07% (G:3.83% B:0.09%) 64.93% (G:5.38% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.596...-0.579) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45232853 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 9/7 8/2
[ 3] 13/11 13/7
[ 3] 9/3 7/5
[ 2] 22/16 9/7
[ 1] 9/3 8/6
[ 1] 8/2 7/5
[ 1] 8/6 8/2


Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/7 8/2

We should just play 9/7 8/2 which gives us a 5 prime, with both ends slotted.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 9/7 8/2

We would like to run, but being exposed to a triple shot after 22/16, waiting for a shot is more appealing. Two down (13/11 13/7) is worth thinking of. It is better for the race, makes the six prime and is less gammonish. But our 13 point serves as a landing point and puts pressure on Neil’s 13 point.

is Neil Kazaross score: 8 pip: 110

11 point match

pip: 108 score: 7 is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABBBBBA---bBba-b-db-A-b-:0:0:-1:32:7:8:0:11:10

to play 32