USBGF OLM 2017-06-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:62:9:7:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 24/22 13/7
[11] 24/18 13/11
[ 5] 13/5
[ 2] 13/11 13/7
[ 2] 24/16


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/22 13/7

Wow, we’re still here? The best way to start thinking about this move is to get into the 2A4A mindset of what I guess Neil would be consistent and call “Cubeful Gammon Save” before we consider our options.

Just running 24/16 looks lame–too early to think only about racing when the running number is this bad. It doesn’t even duplicate anything, and gives him way too many hit and cover rolls, which could be Very Bad. Let’s see if we can do better.

13/7 6/4 is an all-out building play that duplicates both his 6s and his 3s, and has the added advantage that it Looks Really Cool! But sometimes that isn’t enough to beat out disadvantageous counterfactors, which in this case include leaving two blots on our own side of the board with our back men still immobile on the ace point. Hmmm, that gives it kind of a cold, clammy gammonish feel, not the right concept at this score despite its excellent building potential.

What about options that split the back checkers to a point we’d want if we could win the fight for it? Those would include 24/18 13/11 and 24/22 13/7.

24/18 13/11 starts a fight for the bar anchor while leaving a triple shot outside and a lot of hit and cover rolls despite the duplication of 6s and 1s, making it quite dangerous, but the other half of the roll, 13/11, puts a checker in a great spot for when the dust settles. 24/22 13/7 starts a less desirable anchor (who really likes playing from the 22 point?) but it’s a much less gammonish place to sit than on the 24 point, and our chance of actually making that anchor (or a better one) is pretty good because the forward split checker we put there now is less likely to be attacked. But the cost of trying for that anchor is a blot on our bar point which if hit will give us a third man back, possibly with his having made his 5 point.

Plays like this are hard calls at special scores if you haven’t memorized them, as some players do. I haven’t memorized this one, and over the board, I know I’d play 24/22 13/7 the same as I would for money, for the same reason: it has to be a close call, but my opponent is less likely to be familiar with where it goes from here because it’s a play made less often than others. Suppose it is a third-decimal-place ding, but leads to more errors by the opponent? Well worth a small PR hit.

PR jocks don’t always lose sight of the goal of winning, but they do run that risk. The goal is first, to win the match, and toward that end, to maximize the absolute difference in PR between you and your opponent, not the ratio. For example, if you play a 6 and they play a 10, you are better off than if you play a 1 and they play a 3. Not that you’d intentionally risk playing a 6 in the Open at an ABT tournament, where chances are your opponent is pretty good, but you certainly might when playing someone 400 or 500 elo below your rating on Gridgammon, FIBS, Safe Harbor or any other online site with a robust elo rating system.

But we digress. I’m voting for 24/22 13/7 not because I think Neil isn’t familiar with it (or just about anything else we can throw at him) but because I like the chance of getting that 22 anchor and being in far less gammon danger than if we have either both back men on the ace point, or a man or men bouncing in the air with no anchor at all. We can figure out what to do with it once we have it.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 159
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----EAC---dDa--c-da-A-A-:0:0:-1:00:9:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


Today’s vote:

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thurs 6/22 815p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-06-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 11
             
11 point match
              pip: 26
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-CA-B----------------ce-:2:-1:1:52:5:7:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout16/1 4/2eq: -0.625
Player:
Opponent:
18.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
81.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.625...-0.625) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.1 second
2.playedRollout16/4 6/1eq: -0.647 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
17.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
82.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.647...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.0 second
3.Rollout16/1 3/1eq: -0.647 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
17.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
82.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.647...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 58055611
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 6/4 6/1
[11] 6/1 4/2
[ 1] 6/1 3/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 6/1 4/2

Our 5 is forced to play 6/1, and we then have three choices (6/4, 4/2, and 3/1) for the 2. No play can bear any checkers off, and we seriously needed to get down to six, so this dumb number means we are now relying on a double either now or later. One way to compare these three choices is to look at how all six possible doubles play on our next turn.

In many cases they wash, but 4/2 stands out by making 33 play better, and 3/1 stands out by making 11 play better. Although nothing yet favors 6/4, we’d probably be too hasty dropping it out at this stage, so let’s look at how some other rolls work.

As might be expected, we see a difference favoring 4/2 on most of the rolls that include a 2, because the other plays both leave a gap there. 3/1 might give us better chances if we rolled several aces in a row, but this bearoff is way too far advanced to be worrying about that. If we roll mostly aces, we’re going to be crispy critters anyway.

4/2 wins out because it gives us better chances with our 2s next turn and plays a little better on 33. It doesn’t leave us in great shape, but neither of the other plays racks up enough advantages to fight it.



Neil Kazaross: 32 2/0(2)
USBGF Members: 61 4/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 41 2/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 31 3/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 61 1/0(2)
USBGF Members: 33 4/0 3/0(2)

USBGF Members win 4 points and lead 2-away/4-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:21:9:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout113/11 6/5eq: +0.406
Player:
Opponent:
50.92% (G:14.67% B:1.68%)
49.08% (G:17.70% B:3.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.391...+0.421) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 58 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: +0.343 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
50.18% (G:13.94% B:0.87%)
49.82% (G:15.11% B:1.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.329...+0.356) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49441929
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 6/5.

Trailing at what I call “cubeful gammon go,” it is automatic for me to slot an opening 21 to jack up my gammon chances.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 9

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:62:9:7:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 31
             
11 point match
              pip: 44
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-DBBBa---------------cg-:2:-1:1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout14/2 1/Offeq: +0.083
Player:
Opponent:
54.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.082...+0.083) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.8 second
2.Rollout16/4 1/Offeq: +0.077 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
53.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.077...+0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.7 second
3.Rollout13/Offeq: +0.076 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
53.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.076...+0.076) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.0 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 58055611
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 4/2 1/0
[ 8] 3/0
[ 1] 6/4 1/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 4/2 1/0

4/2 1/off looks best, evening out our low-points distribution and ensuring we don’t miss on our next turn. This is likely to be another play that doesn’t matter a lot, since the only reasonable alternative, 3/off, also gets a man off and leaves a decent-looking distribution. But I do think filling the 2 gap, even by risking a gap on the 4 point later, is the more precise way to play this.

Another way to get to this play: Paul Magriel has said that in a bearoff, you should always use an ace to bear off directly from the ace point, and there are few if any exceptions. Doing so here first, then considering our choice of 2s, seems to me to lead to 4/2 being the best choice.



Neil Kazaross: 64 18/8
USBGF Members: 52 5/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 41 8/4 1/0
USBGF Members: 53 5/0 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 41 4/0 1/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 11
             
11 point match
              pip: 26
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-CA-B----------------ce-:2:-1:1:52:5:7:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 49
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-BBCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:32:5:7:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout15/Offeq: +0.649
Player:
Opponent:
82.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.649...+0.650) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20.9 seconds
2.playedRollout16/3 5/3eq: +0.643 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
82.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.642...+0.643) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.8 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 58055611
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 6/3 5/3
[ 9] 5/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 6/3 5/3

“Are we there yet?” Do we have enough checkers off that we can put safety ahead of speed? Given our slow, gapped board compared to his fast one, the answer tends toward “No”. But given that he doesn’t have a recube to throw at us, pushes back toward “Yes”. How do we decide?

If the two plays that take a man off (5/off and 3/off 3/1) weren’t both so hideous, I might be saying we still need to chuck checkers into the tray as fast as we can, so let’s just do it. But those both plays really are just awful, 5/off because of all the shots it leaves next time, and 3/off 3/1 because it gives us a second gap and also makes it much easier for Neil to get on and away. So even though chucking checkers is the right concept, I’m going with 6/3 5/3 because it leaves so much better prospects for shot avoidance. Sometimes the fear of stepping on a banana peel at the end of a game like this one can make people play too cautiously, but also sometimes the cost of doing what we’d rather do is just too high, and this looks to be one of those times.



Neil Kazaross: 52 b/18


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 31
             
11 point match
              pip: 44
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-DBBBa---------------cg-:2:-1:1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 54
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout14/Off 1/Offeq: +0.643
Player:
Opponent:
82.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
17.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.642...+0.643) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18.3 seconds
2.Rollout15/Offeq: +0.513 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:
75.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.512...+0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.2 seconds
3.Rollout16/5 4/Offeq: +0.493 (-0.150)
Player:
Opponent:
74.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.492...+0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16.7 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 33971493
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 4/0 1/0
[ 1] 6/5 4/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 4/0 1/0

Two off looks right here. This is one of the few small rolls that plays really well! Yes, there are a couple of shot-leavers and awkward plays next turn after we do this, but there are also a couple of baddies after the only reasonable alternative, 4/off 6/5. Whether we get hit or not, the race could turn into a photo finish where that one extra checker we take off now could be the decider, so let’s not worry over details. We need to take two off, and be happy that doing so leaves a reasonably safe position for next turn.



Neil Kazaross: 61 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 49
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-BBCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:32:5:7:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-14

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBCB--A--A----------cg-:2:-1:1:53:5:7:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout112/4eq: +0.404
Player:
Opponent:
70.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.403...+0.405) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41.3 seconds
2.Rollout112/7 9/6eq: +0.372 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
68.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.372...+0.373) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47.6 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 54526924
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 12/4
[ 8] 12/7 9/6


Mary Hickey recommends: 12/4

12/4 looks right this time. Slotting the 8 point has been a close call on the plays up till now, including our last move where it was apparently right by a few millipoints. (One voter got it right, but it wasn’t me!) But slotting the bar today with 12/7 9/6 doesn’t look good at all. It gives him a chance to run off with the game by hitting us with a 25 just as we were about to start our bearoff, and lets his 26 escape for good. In contrast, staying back on the 9 point gives us one last shot at him on all his hopping rolls. 12/4 also puts a spare at a good spot for bearing off with minimal additional gapping. An added fine point in its favor is that it gives us a productive use for a missing 2 once he’s gone and we are back to bearing off.

12/7 9/6 does give us something in compensation for its risks, including the added closers and restarting our bearoff a little faster on our smallest rolls. It just doesn’t look like enough bang for the buck–12/4 looks to be the better package deal.



Neil Kazaross: 51 no play
USBGF Members: 21 9/6
Neil Kazaross: 51 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 54
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBBC-----AA---------cg-:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout112/8 6/5eq: +0.299
Player:
Opponent:
64.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.298...+0.300) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds
2.playedRollout113/9 6/5eq: +0.293 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
64.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.292...+0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
3.Rollout113/8eq: +0.292 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
64.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.291...+0.292) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds
4.Rollout113/9 12/11eq: +0.287 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
64.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.287...+0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds
5.Rollout112/7eq: +0.261 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
63.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
36.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.261...+0.262) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds
6.Rollout112/11 6/2eq: +0.171 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:
58.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.171...+0.172) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 13/9 6/5
[ 9] 13/9 12/11
[ 2] 13/8
[ 1] 12/7
[ 1] 12/8 6/5
[ 1] 12/11 6/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/9 6/5

Different day, but a similar decision. I still don’t see any compelling reason to slot the 8 point, since again it gives him two shots but gives us only two rolls (or three, if we play 6/5 with the ace) to close the board. I still favor keeping our back men working together to close in, and so the choice looks to be between 13/9 12/11 and 13/9 6/5. The first play has the advantage of getting a little closer to bearing off, but the second is better if he gets in and hops because we get a few more shots, and it plays a bit better overall, though not great, with the big doubles. I wouldn’t want to waste a lot of pips for those gains, but it’s often true that the cost of a single “wasted” pip is worth some added advantage that it buys. I think this is one of those times, so I like 13/9 6/5.



Neil Kazaross: 53 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBCB--A--A----------cg-:2:-1:1:53:5:7:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 76
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBBC-----A------A---cg-:2:-1:1:42:5:7:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout119/13eq: +0.244
Player:
Opponent:
62.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.243...+0.244) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout119/17 12/8eq: +0.237 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
61.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.237...+0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
3.Rollout119/15 12/10eq: +0.233 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
61.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.233...+0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout112/8 6/4eq: +0.216 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
60.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.215...+0.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 19/13
[11] 19/17 12/8
[ 2] 12/8 6/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 19/13

Today’s play is difficult because the strategic and tactical elements argue against one another. Strategically, in a containment ending we want our checkers all working together in committed fashion to close in on the lone enemy checker, and the best play for that strategy is 19/13. But tactically, if we get away with 19/17 12/8, we have a couple of ways to close, many ways to get a diversified builder onto our block, and more ways to hit him if he enters but can’t hop out.

Regarding 19/17 12/8, I don’t find the argument that 64 will then close the board very convincing. It’s only two numbers, and to get it we give him two numbers, the hitting 62–and he gets to shoot first! But the argument that we will have more ways to hit loose inside if he enters and doesn’t hop is a good one because covers a lot more sequences.

In favor of 19/13, we have much better coverage on his worst rolls for us, the ones that enter and hop. We also don’t leave him any shots. There’s also a small vig favoring it in that 66 turn plays better, leaving no shot inside.

We aren’t overly scared of leaving just two shots if there’s enough benefit if it works, but here I don’t quite see it. I’m going with the strategic play of 19/13, trying to close the net while he’s not set to run and escape from it.



Neil Kazaross: 41 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBBC-----AA---------cg-:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 89
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C-BBBC-a----------A---cgA:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout1Bar/20eq: -0.314
Player:
Opponent:
34.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
65.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.315...-0.312) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.3 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 6/5eq: -0.332 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
33.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.334...-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32.6 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/21 19/18eq: -0.370 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
31.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
68.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.372...-0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.0 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] b/20
[12] b/21 6/5
[ 4] b/21 19/18


Mary Hickey recommends: b/20

The 4 is forced, bar/21, so all we have to do is figure out what to do with the ace. We have no reason to step outside his board with the ace, since then his rolls that hit it leave us only indirects to hit back. That means 19/18 is out, and the choice is between 21/20 and 6/5.

Both our back men are far enough back that we don’t have to play 6/5 just to keep sufficient distance to prevent his jumping over us. The forward checker is 11 away from his blot, which is already an excellent distance, often the best. Being back 13 instead of 12 with the other man is nothing special, even though it gives us a few extra shots on some of his small-roll-followed-by-small-roll parlays.

More important is that since he’s forced to come to us, we will get more a double direct shot on 42 by having them only one pip apart, the way they’ll be after 21/20. There is no compensating roll that gives us that advantage after 6/5. We also pick up a few extra shots on combos such as 6 plus 7, 7 plus 8 etc. over 6 plus 8 or 7 plus 9. This concentration of our shot-hitting power into one roll is especially good when the cube is available and the shot is more decisive than it will be here when he’s got four men off, but it’s often the right concept regardless of where the cube is. In addition, there is also a tactical argument favoring 21/20, which is that after his potentially disastrous (for us, anyway) roll of 33, he’ll have to hit us, and we’ll then have 15 ways to hit him instead of just the 11 we’d have after 6/5.

Yes, 21/20 looks to be our best ace. After that, it’s all up to the dice.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 84
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C-BBBC-a----------AA--cg-:2:-1:-1:31:5:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout117/13eq: +0.380
Player:
Opponent:
68.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.378...+0.381) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.6 seconds
2.Rollout117/14 2/1eq: +0.318 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
65.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.317...+0.320) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42.2 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 17/13.

I must play 17/13, leaving one more immediate shot to improve my chances of getting to safety next roll. Additionally, if I play 2/1, I have no more spares remaining on my 2 point, and could end up exposing a blot there if I get hit and enter and roll a blocked 1. But even with many spares on the 2 point, I think 17/13 is best.



USBGF Members: 22 20/12*
Neil Kazaross: 66 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 76
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BBBC-----A------A---cg-:2:-1:1:42:5:7:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 69
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCABBBC---------------Acg-:2:-1:1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout122/19eq: +0.220
Player:
Opponent:
60.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.219...+0.221) - [99.6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds
2.xgRollout122/20 6/5eq: +0.218 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
60.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.218...+0.219) - [0.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout222/21 6/4eq: +0.174 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
58.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.172...+0.176) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.4 seconds
4.Rollout26/3eq: +0.167 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
58.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
41.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.166...+0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49.0 seconds
5.Rollout222/20 3/2eq: +0.156 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
57.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.154...+0.158) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.1 seconds
6.Rollout26/4 3/2eq: +0.105 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
55.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
44.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.103...+0.107) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.1 seconds
7.Rollout222/21 4/2eq: +0.089 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
54.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.087...+0.090) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.3 seconds
8.Rollout26/5 4/2eq: +0.083 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:
54.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.082...+0.085) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.6 seconds
9.Rollout222/20 2/1eq: +0.075 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:
53.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.073...+0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.2 seconds
10.Rollout25/2eq: +0.062 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:
53.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.060...+0.063) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20.6 seconds
11.Rollout26/4 2/1eq: +0.044 (-0.176)
Player:
Opponent:
52.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
47.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.042...+0.046) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20.9 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 22/19
[ 2] 22/20 6/5
[ 1] 22/20 2/1
[ 1] 6/4 2/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/19

We definitely want to keep the 2 point slotted and keep trying to cover the blot. We also want to get back to our home and restart our bearoff regardless of whether we can cover or not, so I don’t see any reason not to simply play 22/19 with this lame excuse for a roll. If he stays out, maybe we can roll that 4 we want, or at least something bigger!



Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23*/17


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 89
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C-BBBC-a----------A---cgA:2:-1:1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 74
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBCBC----------------cgA:2:-1:1:32:5:7:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 4/2*eq: +0.216
Player:
Opponent:
60.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.214...+0.218) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46.6 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20eq: -0.277 (-0.493)
Player:
Opponent:
36.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
63.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.278...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.3 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] b/22 4/2*


Mary Hickey recommends: b/22 4/2*

Letting him run away scot-free now would be outright criminal! We are lucky to have a roll that enters and hits back, and should do so with no hesitation whatever. I trust that today’s vote to hit, bar/22 4/2*, will be unanimous.



Neil Kazaross: 33 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 38
             
11 point match
              pip: 69
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCABBBC---------------Acg-:2:-1:1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBDCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:52:5:7:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout15/Off 4/2*eq: +0.299
Player:
Opponent:
64.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.298...+0.301) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29.3 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 4/2*eq: +0.192 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
59.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.41% (G:0.79% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.190...+0.193) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.8 seconds
3.Rollout16/4 5/Offeq: -0.160 (-0.460)
Player:
Opponent:
41.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.162...-0.159) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5.4 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 5/0 4/2*
[ 4] 6/4 5/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/0 4/2*

We have to hit and try for that closeout, because if he gets away, his four men already off plus a speed-board when he gets there, make his life just too easy! This isn’t some kind of pip counting position where we talk about his “wastage”. It is a rolls position, where we are the ones who are likely to waste half-rolls whenever we hit that gap on our 2 point, along with any other gaps that might open up later in the bearoff. We need to make our strong board, not his fast one, the key to the highway by means of a hit, 5/off 4/2*. If he misses us, even if we can’t cover we will have cost him what might be a critical turn in a photo finish.



Neil Kazaross: 32 b/23*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 74
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBCBC----------------cgA:2:-1:1:32:5:7:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBDCC----------------cg-:1:1:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo redoubleRedouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:65.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)65.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:34.27% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)34.10% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.314+0.604
Cubeful Equities
xg No redouble:+0.665±0.002 (+0.663..+0.667)
played Redouble/Take:+0.604 (-0.061)±0.003 (+0.601..+0.607)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.335)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 35.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] Redouble
[11] No Redouble


Mary Hickey recommends: No Redouble

“Are we there yet?” We would have been if he’d stayed out. But since he’s in, even though we’re still favored to win and have some market loss on the point-on-head rolls, along with big doubles followed by garbage, I’d rather hold off for a turn. I am especially looking at sequences where we have to hit loose, and he fans. We will then have a very strong double, usually favored to cover though certainly not a lock to do so. In those cases, he might get another shot, but then he still has to hit it. If he doesn’t, we might cover on the second try, or we might just win the game in a bearoff. Another time we’ll have a better double is if we roll something that doesn’t allow us to hit, but does let us get two checkers off, and he’s still there next turn.


Neil Kazaross takes.

I have an easy take as I need only a fraction over 25% to take at this score. I won’t usually be closed out and if I am I will usually have about 20% winning chances remaining. Even after a joker like 66 I retain chances as I have a speed board and 4 checkers off.

If I am hit loose, I may roll a 2 and hit back, or my opponents might not be able to cover conveniently (i.e. blotlessly). If I am not hit and can hop out, I will often be the favorite.

The reason this position hasn’t been a proper cube along much of the journey is that I have 4 checkers off and my opponents have a spare on their ace point. This results in their upside not being much over 80%.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBDCC----------------cg-:2:-1:1:52:5:7:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-02

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCC---------A-----ccd-:1:1:1:33:5:7:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout116/4eq: +0.768
Player:
Opponent:
67.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.767...+0.770) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10.6 seconds
2.Rollout116/7 6/3eq: +0.735 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
66.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.77% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.733...+0.738) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22.5 seconds
3.Rollout116/7 5/2eq: +0.656 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
64.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.10% (G:3.22% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.654...+0.657) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 21 seconds
4.Rollout116/10 6/3 4/1eq: +0.576 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
61.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.13% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.573...+0.579) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.9 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24043096
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 16/4
[ 2] 16/7 6/3
[ 1] 16/10 6/3 4/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 16/4

This roll lets us turn the game into a race-and-bearoff ending, and I don’t see any reason not to just do that, bringing Junior home to the 4 point. We aren’t giving up on making the 2 point if he’s there or on the bar next turn and the dice let us do it, but the more probable way this game will end is with a no-contact race after he gets on and gets away, one way or another. Since we aren’t dependent on a hit to win, no need to delay the start of our bearoff by hanging back for one more turn.



Neil Kazaross: 22 b/23 3/1(3)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 36
             
11 point match
              pip: 58
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBDCC----------------cg-:1:1:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-06-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCC---------A-----ccd-:1:1:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[17] No Redouble
[16] Redouble


Mary Hickey recommends: Redouble

Market loss is starting to look significant here. For starters, all our pointing numbers end the game. Our big doubles look to do the same after another fan by him, which of course assumes he doesn’t hit the shot we leave with 66. Those sequences, plus our getting a good number that lands inside our board (guaranteeing that we will either close or get at least one checker off on the next turn), then his fanning once again, sounds to me like quite a bit. Getting to our 7 or 8 point will likely do it too if he fans, since that would give us a fourth builder and also many rolls that start our bearoff.

I think we have enough market loss here for a small redouble. And against an opponent this good, small is good enough. His take is easy because he has four men off already, he has a speed-board while our bearoff board is imperfect, and we haven’t carried out a decisive threat yet. While he has no recube power as he would at many other scores, he has going for him that if he wins this game on a 4-cube, he wins the match, and is taking no risk at all of losing a gammon and having us win the match instead. If there’s any kind of recube to be happy about seeing at this score, this is it!

It also helps vs. a super player that our side will be relatively easy to play, even though we haven’t got it quite right on every play along the way to here. The odds that we’re going to blunder any time from now to the end are just about zero, so this represents a good opportunity for us. Let’s redouble, win this game more or less on autopilot, and be thinking hard about how to play and cube at 2-away 4-away :0)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCC---------A-----ccd-:1:1:1:33:5:7:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 76
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCB----A-----A----ccd-:1:1:1:51:5:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.XG Roller++17/12 4/3eq: +0.637
Player:
Opponent:
63.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
36.31% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++17/12 11/10eq: +0.632 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
63.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
36.65% (G:0.85% B:0.01%)
3.playedXG Roller++17/16 11/6eq: +0.613 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
62.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.06% (G:0.50% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 17/16 11/6
[11] 17/12 11/10
[ 3] 17/12 4/3


Mary Hickey recommends: 17/12 11/10

Another roll, another plan! Now we are starting to close in, and bringing both our back men into action looks to be the priority. Unlike yesterday, we can give ourselves substantial hitting chances on his hop-out rolls by playing 17/12 11/10. I think that should have priority over getting a third builder for the 2 point, since after this play no matter what he enters with, our chances of hitting him are excellent. Another factor that is growing with each move/fan sequence is that it’s perfectly possible we will end up winning this game without ever making the 2 point, so doing that is shrinking in importance.

And today is as good as any to tell y’all: After this match ends, Marty Storer will return as Guest Expert, and I will rejoin the team. I’ve enjoyed doing these commentaries, and it’s helped me by keeping me from drifting away from backgammon when other projects start taking up a lot of time. If we have no time at all for our favorite game, we’re just too busy! I’m glad our regular team members seldom wander away for very long, and I look forward to keeping in touch with the game and with all of you by participating on the Readers team.



Neil Kazaross: 41 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCC---------A-----ccd-:1:1:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCB-------A------Accd-:1:1:1:43:5:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.XG Roller++14/7eq: +0.546
Player:
Opponent:
61.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.85% (G:2.83% B:0.02%)
2.playedXG Roller++21/17 14/11eq: +0.545 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
60.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.15% (G:1.77% B:0.02%)
3.xgXG Roller++21/18 14/10eq: +0.544 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
60.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
39.53% (G:1.64% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller++21/17 5/2eq: +0.521 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
61.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.27% (G:7.12% B:0.09%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 21/17 14/11
[11] 14/7
[ 2] 21/18 14/10
[ 1] 21/17 5/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 14/7

Getting another checker into action at the hot spot on the board seems more important than moosing around in the outfield, since a third man there can help us make the 2 point or hit loose if he enters but doesn’t get out. I’d rather put that builder on the 8 point than the 7, because then he wouldn’t have an entering number that jumps over us, but we have to play what we got. We leave two very bad numbers (52) and two pretty bad ones (62), with the 62s already being rather bad to have him roll, and that doesn’t seem to be too much to pay for what could be a critical third builder or hitter.

I don’t see us needing to take the larger risk of slotting. Having only one direct cover plus a few indirects if it’s missed doesn’t look all that good. It’s not unthinkable, but despite his weak board, we have to worry at least a little about a gammon parlay starting with a hit/fan sequence.



Neil Kazaross: 51 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 76
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCB----A-----A----ccd-:1:1:1:51:5:7:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCB-------A------Accd-:1:1:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[16] No Redouble
[15] Redouble


Mary Hickey recommends: No Redouble

It’s tempting to think redouble here, because we’re behind in the match and this game could put us ahead. But with him having four guys off already and a speed-board if he can get back to it, his take looks pretty trivial. That doesn’t mean we can’t also have a redouble, but without much of a market-loss threat on our side, I’m not seeing it here. We’re very unlikely to close him out on this turn, and unless we roll a big double, our last two men aren’t getting home very fast, either. Let’s sit on the cube for a roll, and see if we can develop a bigger threat one way or another.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCB-------A------Accd-:1:1:1:43:5:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 94
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC--DBD-------------AAccd-:1:1:1:61:5:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedXG Roller++20/14 6/5eq: +0.012
Player:
Opponent:
42.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
57.75% (G:4.91% B:0.05%)
2.XG Roller++21/15 6/5eq: -0.018 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
40.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.02% (G:4.70% B:0.04%)
3.XG Roller++20/13eq: -0.042 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
40.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.84% (G:4.89% B:0.05%)
4.XG Roller++20/14 4/3eq: -0.061 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
43.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
56.33% (G:13.53% B:0.15%)
5.XG Roller++21/14eq: -0.067 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
39.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.78% (G:4.76% B:0.04%)
6.XG Roller++21/15 20/19eq: -0.071 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
39.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.98% (G:4.83% B:0.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 20/14 6/5
[ 2] 21/15 6/5
[ 1] 21/15 4/3
[ 1] 20/13
[ 1] 21/15 20/19


Mary Hickey recommends: 20/14 6/5

20/14 6/5 looks natural, and holds up when we look at it more closely. The improvement of our builder distribution could be important whether he enters or not, and 20/14 gives us a direct return shot if he rolls a 36, 26 or a 35 enter-and-jump number. 21/15 isn’t as good because it only gives us a direct return on 36. 21/14 “worries too much”, as the wasted pip played 6/5 is no big deal here for saving the gammon. It is a big deal another way, because it improves our chances of saving the gammon the best way possible–by winning the game!



Neil Kazaross: 21 b/22
USBGF Members: 31 6/3* 4/3
Neil Kazaross: 54 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 83
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC-BCCB-------A------Accd-:1:1:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 95
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-CBCBB---a-a--babbbbA--:1:1:1:42:5:7:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout17/5 7/3eq: -0.655
Player:
Opponent:
20.18% (G:6.06% B:0.69%)
79.82% (G:16.05% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.660...-0.650) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 17 seconds
2.playedRollout18/6 8/4eq: -0.731 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
17.10% (G:4.63% B:0.54%)
82.90% (G:15.07% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.735...-0.726) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 00 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 8/6 8/4
[11] 7/5 7/3


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/5 7/3

We only have two serious candidates here: clearing the 8 or clearing the bar. If we set up the resulting positions, we see that clearing the 8 is safe for the roll, but sure looks likely to generate a shot later. Too many stripped points, and still that gap. Clearing the bar leaves him aces to hit now, but looks to roll in better on the following turn and thereafter if he misses. It also has the advantage of killing our 6s, potentially allowing us a little more game-time to let him roll a prime-cracking number. That assumes he gets the prime, of course; he’s a big favorite to make his bar point, but it’s not certain until it’s done.

Getting a second checker closed out increases our gammon risk, but if we slot and he hits us, a closeout isn’t a given. This might instead provide us the opportunity to anchor before he gets enough material to complete a blitz. If he makes the prime, we want that opportunity, because otherwise he may succeed in recirculating checkers by means of loose hits inside until he picks up a second man, and we’d then have to get a lot luckier to anchor than we have to get right now.

So much for strategy; what about tactical considerations? 11, 51 and 31 are already prime-making numbers for him, so we aren’t “giving” him those numbers. He already has them! If he rolls 61 or 41, we make his roll better, but again, we give ourselves that chance to anchor and make a last stand versus his prime. If he gets a 21, we did “give him the roll”, but we still have our chance to anchor. Overall, since the incremental danger from our slotting right now is mitigated by the factors just noted, the danger of leaving a worse shot later is high, and that our position plays better if we’re missed, clearing the bar point looks right for the long term and is the way to go today.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 89
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-DBDB----a-a--babbbbA--:1:1:-1:55:5:7:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout113/3 11/6 7/2*eq: -0.097
Player:
Opponent:
56.25% (G:8.94% B:0.56%)
43.75% (G:9.99% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.102...-0.092) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout111/6 8/3(2) 7/2*eq: -0.295 (-0.198)
Player:
Opponent:
50.40% (G:7.47% B:0.45%)
49.60% (G:15.15% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.300...-0.290) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 07 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 11/1 7/2*eq: -0.301 (-0.204)
Player:
Opponent:
51.14% (G:7.54% B:0.48%)
48.86% (G:14.53% B:1.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.306...-0.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32123691
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/3 11/6 7/2*.

Well the dice sometimes bring bad tidings as well as good. Here rather than rolling one of 27 prime making numbers I get this BAD 55. I can just handle it.



USBGF Members: 62 b/23* 7/1
Neil Kazaross: 43 b/18*
USBGF Members: 53 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 125
             
11 point match
              pip: 101
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Cb-DBDa---------b-cbbcA-A:1:1:-1:62:5:7:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout118/16 8/2*eq: +0.856
Player:
Opponent:
81.71% (G:30.55% B:1.76%)
18.29% (G:7.17% B:1.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.851...+0.862) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout18/2* 6/4eq: +0.835 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
81.17% (G:29.91% B:1.77%)
18.83% (G:7.35% B:1.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.829...+0.840) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 03 seconds
3.xgRollout118/10eq: +0.823 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
80.49% (G:27.11% B:1.61%)
19.51% (G:4.16% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.818...+0.828) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout18/6 8/2*eq: +0.811 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
80.09% (G:29.80% B:1.63%)
19.91% (G:6.82% B:1.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.805...+0.816) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 15 seconds
5.Rollout118/12 6/4eq: +0.795 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
80.17% (G:25.87% B:1.46%)
19.83% (G:4.35% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.790...+0.801) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 45 seconds
6.Rollout123/15eq: +0.742 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
79.43% (G:25.26% B:1.50%)
20.57% (G:6.84% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.737...+0.748) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/16 8/2*.

I can’t take my eye off the ball here and must continue to make strong plays. 8/2* puts a 2nd checker on the bar and might even be the best DMP play. Certainly it will win the most match ending gammons. Then the best 2 is 18/16. I am not in danger of yet cracking with a 44 or 33 so I don’t need to hop a checker into the outfield and allow some counter-play. Best is just to work to close my opponents out to try to snuff out any resistance they can offer this game.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Cb-DBD--a-------a-cbbca-B:1:1:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.Rollout18/7 6/2eq: +1.234
Player:
Opponent:
90.92% (G:36.15% B:1.72%)
9.08% (G:1.85% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.232...+1.236) - [59.7%]
Duration: 41 minutes 49 seconds
2.playedRollout18/4 3/2eq: +1.234 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
90.51% (G:37.00% B:1.72%)
9.49% (G:1.91% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.232...+1.236) - [40.3%]
Duration: 40 minutes 01 second
3.Rollout223/22 6/2eq: +1.224 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
90.60% (G:36.45% B:1.84%)
9.40% (G:2.19% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.220...+1.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 17 seconds
4.Rollout216/12 3/2eq: +1.212 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
90.12% (G:36.02% B:1.69%)
9.88% (G:1.88% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.208...+1.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 3/2.

I think the most natural play is 8/4 3/2 rather than 8/7 6/2 as I want spares on high points. But shouldn’t I be afraid of my 44 and play 23/22 6/2? However, that risks 11 from my opponents although I still may end up OK if they crash afterwards. Which ghost to be afraid of? Well seeing that I can handle one 44 without crashing I think I am supposed to add a builder for the close out. If I can’t move a back checker next turn and then roll 44 if won’t be the end of the world if all it costs me is to switch my 5 point for my 1 point.



USBGF Members: 65 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Cb-DBD--a---------cbcbb-B:1:1:-1:64:5:7:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout123/13eq: +1.322
Player:
Opponent:
92.75% (G:38.74% B:1.73%)
7.25% (G:1.30% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.320...+1.323) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout123/17 16/12eq: +1.316 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
92.57% (G:38.64% B:1.73%)
7.43% (G:1.30% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.315...+1.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 40 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/13.

This probably doesn’t make much of a difference as long as I run out with a back checker. 23/13 allows me to hit loose with 66 and 44 if my opponents enter and by leaving the checker on the 16 point, 55 will close my board. If I instead play 16/12, I do bring that checker a bit closer to home where it soon can become a direct builder, but this doesn’t add anything next turn as I can hit loose with 65 anyhow should my opponents enter a checker.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 102
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Ca-DBD--a--a------cbcbb-B:1:1:-1:31:5:7:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout116/13 6/5eq: +1.335
Player:
Opponent:
93.27% (G:38.41% B:1.57%)
6.73% (G:0.94% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.333...+1.336) - [92.6%]
Duration: 28 minutes 30 seconds
2.playedRollout113/9eq: +1.333 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
92.96% (G:39.04% B:1.65%)
7.04% (G:1.05% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.332...+1.335) - [7.3%]
Duration: 26 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout123/22 16/13eq: +1.331 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
93.00% (G:38.72% B:1.57%)
7.00% (G:1.02% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.330...+1.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 33 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +1.331 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
93.03% (G:38.71% B:1.72%)
6.97% (G:1.05% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.329...+1.332) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 52 seconds
5.Rollout216/15 13/10eq: +1.329 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
92.91% (G:38.83% B:1.77%)
7.09% (G:1.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.325...+1.332) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds
6.Rollout223/22 13/10eq: +1.326 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
92.77% (G:38.95% B:1.77%)
7.23% (G:1.23% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.323...+1.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds
7.Rollout216/12eq: +1.324 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
92.84% (G:38.55% B:1.68%)
7.16% (G:1.16% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.320...+1.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9.

I think I have enough time to escape that 3 prime that I don’t need to yet play 23/22 and risk a 11 joker. I’ll go with 13/9, putting that checker in a good spot if I need to hit loose.



USBGF Members: 31 b/24


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 98
             
11 point match
              pip: 102
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Ca-DBD--a------a--cbcbbAA:1:1:-1:63:5:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout123/17 4/1*eq: +1.282
Player:
Opponent:
91.35% (G:39.28% B:1.56%)
8.65% (G:2.24% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.279...+1.286) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 4/1*eq: +1.252 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
90.71% (G:38.30% B:1.62%)
9.29% (G:2.14% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.248...+1.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/17 4/1*.

I am happy to hit 4/1* going after the closeout. Then I play 23/17 hopping out so I don’t risk ending up with two checkers back if the USBGF Members roll a saving ace from the bar.



USBGF Members: 33 no play
Neil Kazaross: 32 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 84
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD-aa------a--bbbbbbB:1:1:-1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout19/6eq: +1.527
Player:
Opponent:
96.79% (G:45.44% B:1.66%)
3.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.526...+1.528) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout117/15 9/8eq: +1.524 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
96.75% (G:45.28% B:1.66%)
3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.523...+1.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 55 seconds
3.Rollout117/14eq: +1.524 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
96.79% (G:45.18% B:1.66%)
3.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.523...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout116/14 9/8eq: +1.523 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.80% (G:45.11% B:1.64%)
3.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.522...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 53 seconds
5.xgRollout116/13eq: +1.523 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:45.16% B:1.64%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.522...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
6.Rollout116/15 9/7eq: +1.521 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
96.75% (G:45.07% B:1.63%)
3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.520...+1.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 08 seconds
7.Rollout117/15 16/15eq: +1.521 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
96.75% (G:45.02% B:1.64%)
3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.520...+1.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds
8.Rollout117/16 9/7eq: +1.519 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
96.69% (G:45.04% B:1.65%)
3.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.518...+1.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/6.

My gammon value is higher than normal here since I win the match exactly with a 4 point gammon. It is about 2/3 rather than the normal 1/2. Thus I will take some small risks to bear off quickly for a gammon. My ideal quick bearoff position after a closeout is usually to put one spare checker on my 6 and 5 points and then the dice decide what happens with my third spare. Therefore, 9/6 here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 81
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD-aa---------cbbbbbB:1:1:-1:51:5:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout117/12 6/5eq: +1.528
Player:
Opponent:
96.81% (G:45.48% B:1.75%)
3.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.526...+1.530) - [72.3%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
2.playedRollout116/10eq: +1.527 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:45.44% B:1.74%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.525...+1.528) - [16.3%]
Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds
3.Rollout117/11eq: +1.526 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:45.43% B:1.72%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.524...+1.528) - [11.3%]
Duration: 57.3 seconds
4.Rollout117/12 16/15eq: +1.524 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.69% (G:45.45% B:1.74%)
3.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.522...+1.526) - [0.2%]
Duration: 53.3 seconds
5.Rollout116/11 6/5eq: +1.516 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
96.65% (G:44.88% B:1.69%)
3.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.514...+1.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52.4 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/10.

16/10 looks smooth as my big doubles play fine. If I play 17/11 then my 55 is awkward.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 75
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD-a------a---cbbbbbB:1:1:-1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout117/14eq: +1.528
Player:
Opponent:
96.83% (G:45.38% B:1.58%)
3.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.526...+1.530) - [84.3%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
2.xgRollout117/15 10/9eq: +1.526 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.75% (G:45.42% B:1.66%)
3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.525...+1.528) - [15.5%]
Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds
3.Rollout117/16 10/8eq: +1.524 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:45.21% B:1.63%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.522...+1.526) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
4.Rollout117/15 6/5eq: +1.522 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
96.77% (G:45.16% B:1.50%)
3.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.521...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
5.Rollout110/8 6/5eq: +1.517 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
96.73% (G:44.80% B:1.54%)
3.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.515...+1.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59.2 seconds
6.Rollout110/9 6/4eq: +1.517 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
96.78% (G:44.66% B:1.56%)
3.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.515...+1.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47.3 seconds
7.Rollout110/7eq: +1.516 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
96.53% (G:45.04% B:1.62%)
3.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.514...+1.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.6 seconds
8.Rollout117/16 6/4eq: +1.510 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
96.60% (G:44.50% B:1.56%)
3.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.508...+1.512) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50.3 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 17/14.

17/14 seems to be the most flexible, and of course, this play isn’t a big deal.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 72
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD----a---a---cbbbbbB:1:1:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout114/10 6/5eq: +1.522
Player:
Opponent:
96.70% (G:45.22% B:1.74%)
3.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.520...+1.524) - [82.8%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
2.Rollout114/9eq: +1.520 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
96.55% (G:45.36% B:1.76%)
3.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.518...+1.522) - [7.6%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
3.playedRollout110/5eq: +1.520 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
96.55% (G:45.37% B:1.69%)
3.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.519...+1.522) - [6.9%]
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds
4.Rollout114/13 10/6eq: +1.520 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
96.64% (G:45.18% B:1.73%)
3.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.518...+1.522) - [2.7%]
Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5.

I will risk a very small chance of disaster and push towards a gammon win with 10/5. If my opponents’ board and containment potential were better I wouldn’t risk a blotting 66.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 67
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD----a-------ccbbbbB:1:1:-1:53:5:7:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout114/6eq: +1.512
Player:
Opponent:
96.04% (G:45.79% B:1.64%)
3.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.510...+1.514) - [99.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds
2.Rollout114/9 6/3eq: +1.508 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
96.73% (G:44.19% B:1.40%)
3.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.506...+1.510) - [0.8%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
3.Rollout114/9 5/2eq: +1.500 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
96.26% (G:44.52% B:1.42%)
3.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.498...+1.502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/6.

14/6 isn’t the DMP play as I can get into trouble if I roll large numbers for a couple of turns, but it is the best play for the gammon and likely correct.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 59
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD------------dcbbbbB:1:1:-1:54:5:7:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout16/2 5/Offeq: +1.437
Player:
Opponent:
93.85% (G:44.35% B:1.77%)
6.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.434...+1.439) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 6/1eq: +1.409 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
95.40% (G:39.38% B:1.24%)
4.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.407...+1.411) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/2 5/0.

This ugly roll throws a wrench into my plans! If I play 6/2 6/1, I take none off and don’t leave a really safe position. It seems best to risk taking a checker off with 5/0 and then play 6/2 and hope to roll smaller next turn. I think the trade off of added gammon wins vs. added losses justifies this risk. If I do get hit as a result, I will usually still have a 5 point board and can hope to come around and survive.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 50
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD------------cbbbcbB:1:1:-1:55:5:7:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout16/1(2) 5/Off(2)eq: +1.119
Player:
Opponent:
85.37% (G:37.05% B:1.10%)
14.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.117...+1.121) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout16/1(3) 5/Offeq: +0.983 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
83.79% (G:29.85% B:0.62%)
16.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.981...+0.986) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1(2) 5/0(2).

Here comes trouble! I simply take 2 checkers off as the number of shots is 11 either way.



USBGF Members: 22 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-C--DBD------------a-bbcdB:1:1:-1:63:5:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout16/3 4/Offeq: +1.287
Player:
Opponent:
88.67% (G:43.38% B:1.05%)
11.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.284...+1.289) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 3/Offeq: +1.224 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
85.11% (G:45.56% B:2.08%)
14.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.222...+1.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14737706
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3 4/0.

I am regretting not playing more safely with my bearin! Now I think I have to potentially waste a roll and end up with an odd number of checkers remaining, since if I take 2 checkers off I will have many rolls to leave a shot next turn and there’s a chance if I am hit to enter and then expose a blot on my 4 point. 6/3 4/0 is very safe if I am missed.



USBGF Members: 54 b/20 b/21*
Neil Kazaross: 64 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 44
             
11 point match
              pip: 94
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aC--DBD-------------AAccd-:1:1:1:61:5:7:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-ABC-B-B-cB---b-bbbbA--:0:0:-1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:64.51% (G:27.62% B:1.30%)64.96% (G:28.02% B:2.21%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:35.49% (G:10.62% B:0.68%)35.04% (G:11.05% B:1.27%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.541+1.248
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.652 (-0.162)±0.011 (+0.641..+0.663)
played Double/Take:+0.814±0.016 (+0.798..+0.830)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.186)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65542650
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Take
[ 5] Pass


Mary Hickey recommends: Take

His immediate threat looks big enough for him to double, but I can’t see it as sufficient for us to pass. For one thing, if he hits with a 2, we aren’t crispy critters, since we might anchor on the 23 and still have something of a game. If he has to hit inside with a 6 to freeze our blot on the 4 point in order to take another swing at it, we still might enter (hitting or not) and then either cover it or have him miss it again. We may not love our position, but it’s got enough in it, including our race lead if no hitting happens on this sequence, that the take has to be there. If his gammon threat were greater, maybe we’d have to scratch our heads a little harder, but it doesn’t look big enough to scare us away, especially since there’s pushback from our recube vig if the game takes a decent-sized turn for the better.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

I went through all my rolls, and I certainly have the advantage with threats.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-ABC-B-B-cB---b-bbbbA--:1:1:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedXG Roller++13/8eq: -0.079
Player:
Opponent:
55.48% (G:16.03% B:0.49%)
44.52% (G:11.06% B:0.43%)
2.XG Roller++23/22 13/9eq: -0.319 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:
52.60% (G:18.96% B:1.10%)
47.40% (G:24.37% B:0.74%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8.

A poor shot, but no reason to panic. I just play 13/8 adding an attacker aimed at their blot on my 2 point.



USBGF Members: 66 13/7(2) 10/4(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 95
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-CBCBB---b----c-bbbbA--:1:1:-1:21:5:7:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedXG Roller++13/11 8/7eq: +0.087
Player:
Opponent:
64.36% (G:10.79% B:0.32%)
35.64% (G:16.71% B:0.84%)
2.XG Roller++13/10eq: -0.078 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:
57.55% (G:9.52% B:0.27%)
42.45% (G:12.30% B:0.45%)
3.XG Roller++13/12 13/11eq: -0.096 (-0.182)
Player:
Opponent:
56.81% (G:9.66% B:0.27%)
43.19% (G:12.68% B:0.50%)
4.XG Roller++8/5eq: -0.127 (-0.214)
Player:
Opponent:
55.62% (G:9.68% B:0.27%)
44.38% (G:10.91% B:0.36%)
5.XG Roller++13/12 8/6eq: -0.140 (-0.227)
Player:
Opponent:
55.50% (G:9.96% B:0.29%)
44.50% (G:13.61% B:0.55%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 8/7.

This 21 is a nice roll for me provided I have the guts to take a chance. I must have my bar point so noting that my opponents escape with a 5 whether it is blotted or not, I have to make the big play 13/11 8/7.

In exchange for several percent more gammons lost when I get hit and more blots get picked up, I will win at least several percent more games and a probably more gammons with the big play. Even at a pure gammon save score I think I have to take this chance to be in a near winning position when not hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 129
             
11 point match
              pip: 95
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-CBCBB---a-a--babbbbA--:1:1:1:42:5:7:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-12

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBa--BC-B---dE---b-cbb-A--:0:0:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:57.38% (G:22.26% B:0.57%)57.45% (G:23.02% B:0.44%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:42.62% (G:11.57% B:0.69%)42.55% (G:11.77% B:1.29%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.249+0.501
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.419±0.011 (+0.407..+0.430)
     Double/Take:+0.333 (-0.086)±0.016 (+0.317..+0.349)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.581)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61560494
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 23 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] No Double
[ 7] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

One way to think about this cube is compare it to the standard opening 5-5 blitz position that puts two on the bar, but one of them re-enters on the deuce point. (Equivalent parlays include the blitz hitting only one checker, which stays out, but there was one on the deuce already.) That position is a small no-double, though in practice for money you can put it out there and hope for the occasional odd pass. So if we start with that standard reference position and consider what is different about this one, we have a better chance of getting this right than if we start with a blank slate.

We are better off because of having the 5 point instead of the 3 point, but that’s not all that big here. Our still having the 8 point, which also means we have one more man in the Zone, plus having one of our back man out and safe, are both bigger factors in our favor. Now let’s consider what Neil has, and we see that instead of essentially just the opening position, he has both his 5 and 4 points! The passive counterplay that structure represents is huge here, because it means we can’t afford to blitz away and expect to re-enter quickly, possibly forming an advanced anchor in the process, as might happen in our reference position. Sure, we’ll hit loose if we have to when there are no other good options, but we’re not at all anxious to do so. From here, the most likely outcome is that he’s going to anchor, probably on the 2 point, with us having a point made behind him and a lot of work to do even just to get home with our other thirteen checkers. Even if we get that far, we can still lose with a barf sequence while bearing off against his anchor.

All in all, this doesn’t look like much of a cube. It’s less bad because of the score and his limited ability to recube us, but that factor doesn’t look like a swing factor. It’s possible we could lose our market, but given how much work we have to do to bring this game home, if it happens I won’t cry in my mango lasse over it.



USBGF Members: 52 23/16
Neil Kazaross: 42 b/23 13/9*
USBGF Members: 33 b/22 13/10(3)
Neil Kazaross: 63 9/3* 6/3
USBGF Members: 62 b/23 10/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 137
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Bb-ABC-B-B-cB---b-bbbbA--:0:0:-1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


Today’s vote:

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sat 5/13 930p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-05-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 151
             
11 point match
              pip: 138
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB-BC-B---dE---b-cbb-A--:0:0:1:11:5:7:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout13/2*(2) 2/1*(2)eq: +0.432
Player:
Opponent:
56.78% (G:23.32% B:0.39%)
43.22% (G:11.82% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.419...+0.445) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout123/22 6/5 3/2*(2)eq: +0.260 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent:
55.71% (G:16.98% B:0.86%)
44.29% (G:13.39% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.247...+0.273) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
3.Rollout18/7(2) 3/2*(2)eq: +0.243 (-0.189)
Player:
Opponent:
54.75% (G:18.37% B:0.78%)
45.25% (G:13.77% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.230...+0.255) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes
4.Rollout123/22 8/7(2) 6/5eq: +0.146 (-0.287)
Player:
Opponent:
53.79% (G:16.50% B:1.16%)
46.21% (G:15.75% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.133...+0.159) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61560494
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 3/2*(2)/1*(2)
[ 6] 23/22 8/7(2) 6/5
[ 3] 23/22 6/5 3/2*(2)
[ 3] 8/7(2) 3/2*(2)


Mary Hickey recommends:

Our best positional play has to be 23/22 8/7(2) 6/5. But best-in-class doesn’t always mean good, and this play leaves him free to play and in many cases, gain more with his roll than we just did with ours. Our best tactical play has to be 3/2*(2)/1*(2), which blows him out of our home board for at least this turn. The choice looks to be between these two very different plays, because those that are in-between, hitting only once inside, seem too uncertain in their objectives.

If we hit only once, what do we do with the other half of the roll–make the bar point for a better position if he comes in on the ace? We’d still have a long way to go before we’d have much, since that double gap in our board could prove hard to fill in quickly. If instead we play 23/22 followed by 6/5 because it’s the only fourth ace that makes sense, we are better set to escape, but our home distribution of points is awkward, with the 8 and 2 points six apart. That’s never good, though it’s not so bad as to be a deal-breaker for this decision.

Let’s not worry about how to complete the play if we hit only once. The double hit has to be better if we’re going to hit at all, not because it avoids the problem of points six pips apart, but because it hits two checkers! Hitting is good, and two checkers on the bar are more numerous than one.

Do we expect to blitz him if we hit twice? No, not really. The most likely way for that to happen is he stays out, followed by our rolling something big enough to get two checkers from our midpoint both down far enough into our inner board to take aim at our unmade points, especially the 4 and 3. It’s possible for a blitz to happen other ways, though, so that possibility is part of our game plan.

If we don’t hit at all, we let him anchor with much greater ease, which in turn can enable him to attack our back man with far less risk. Not hitting also doesn’t buy us any game-time to get Junior out of there to avoid such an attack. If the positional play were more constructive than we see here, there’d be a better case for it, but it doesn’t gain all that much here. Most of the time, a double-ace does pretty well for such a small roll, making additional points, improving distribution or both. Here, the biggest gain from it is the 23/22 move, which enables us to escape more easily assuming he lets him just sit there. The play still seems pretty unsatisfying, though.

Let’s get back to the double hit, and think about what will happen if we do it, but the blitz never materializes. A likely alternative outcome is that he anchors somewhere, since we don’t have enough Crisloid in the zone to stop him. By then, though, we may have escaped Junior from his board, and if so, this game may morph into a pretty standard holding game, and us with a substantial racing lead. That’s not so bad, is it? I like the double hit, even though we can’t answer the question, “What’s your game plan?” yet. That’s going to be up to the dice.



Neil Kazaross: 21 b/23


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 152
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBa--BC-B---dE---b-cbb-A--:0:0:1:00:5:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-D---dE--ab-d-b-A--:0:0:1:33:5:7:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.455
Player:
Opponent:
60.36% (G:17.09% B:0.84%)
39.64% (G:10.90% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.442...+0.468) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
2.Rollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.373 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
58.45% (G:15.83% B:0.84%)
41.55% (G:11.66% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.360...+0.386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 44 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45895348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 8/5(2) 6/3(2)
[ 6] 13/10(2) 8/5(2)
[ 1] 23/20 13/10 8/5(2)


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5(2) 6/3(2)

Looks like as good a time as any to make our 5 point, especially since it doesn’t cost us our 8 point to do it. Now what about the other two 3s?

Making either the 10 or the 3 point is strong, and in both cases we unstack a heavy point when we make the new one. Too bad we can’t do both! But since we have to choose, let’s roll with strengthening our inner board for future action by making the 3 point. What we’d really like to see is a hit/fan sequence that might enable us to double because of our gammon threat, and making the 3 point increases the odds for that “fan” portion of the parlay. It also might make him think hard before he starts messing with our straggler in his home.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 138
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB-BC-B---dE--ab-d-b-A--:0:0:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout19/5 6/5eq: -0.311
Player:
Opponent:
43.52% (G:12.32% B:0.83%)
56.48% (G:17.55% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.323...-0.298) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 21 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.484 (-0.173)
Player:
Opponent:
38.17% (G:9.58% B:0.51%)
61.83% (G:14.06% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.496...-0.472) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 28 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61560494
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/5 6/5.

This is an easy decision. Lets say I make my 9 point with 13/9. Does it then help me to anchor 24/23 or simply not play that ace? I think 24/23 might result in me winning a bit less games, but would somewhat lower my rate of gammons lost. So while 24/23 might be my best ace, it isn’t a big gain to anchor. So clearly there’s a much better play and that is to make my 5 point. Often the best defense is a good offense. I’d honestly make my 5 point at a pure gammon save score noting that my opponents have only 9 checkers in the zone and may leave some fly shots trying to develop their stacked checkers on the mid point.

9/5 6/5 is very clear.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 151
             
11 point match
              pip: 138
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaB-BC-B---dE---b-cbb-A--:0:0:1:11:5:7:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 172
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--bCC-B-BBcB-A--bbb-b---:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:69.03% (G:19.36% B:0.57%)69.28% (G:19.56% B:0.61%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:30.97% (G:5.18% B:0.31%)30.72% (G:5.36% B:0.46%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.528+1.105
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.916 (-0.072)±0.010 (+0.906..+0.926)
xg Double/Take:+0.988±0.013 (+0.975..+1.001)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.012)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67815246
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:96.4%
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] Double
[ 2] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

Now we have something! Our lead in the race is huge, to the point where we can (almost!) discount the possibility of his winning in the race. Our position has improved, too, with more points made on offense and few bad rolls this turn. Neil’s position on his side has also improved, but his counterplay in the moment is near zero; he will be counting on a much later shot unless he hits an indirect. OK, that’s two parts of the PRaT triad; what about our threats?

We don’t need a new threat here, because we just carried one out! It was to free our last back man, and also to set Neil much farther back in the race. Our 64 was a joker, carrying out an unlikely threat that was nonetheless very big when it actually came through for us.

This double has to be good at the score, given that the gammons are one-sided in our direction and that he needs more to recube us than he would for money, again because he will be cautious about “kicking the rock” that lets us recube for the match.


Neil Kazaross passes.

Ouch, the wrong time to fan when there’s plenty of play left. Let me take a good look at the position and see if I can determine my losses and gammon losses. I may not make a 2nd anchor and I often won’t time a 41 backgame anyhow. However, I may end up winning a 4 point holding game and that nuisance checker on the ace point may help me, or it may get attacked at some point leading to more gammon losses. I don’t like how my opponents’ doubles play and even the 33 that can’t safety their straggler plays nicely. My game is compromised somewhat by not having the gap on my 4 point. On a bad day I won’t be able to make it later and a quick hit isn’t nearly as strong.

If I owned my 4 point rather than my 3 point, my response would be “TAKE can’t pass this even at this score.” As it is I’d grab this cube for money or at many away many away but at this score, my recube vig is much less. I think this looks like a 70/20 position for the USBGF Members… i.e. they win 70% games and 20% gammons. Even noting my own few % gammon wins, this seems at best a score-based tossup so I’ll concede the point as I don’t think my their position is any more difficult to play than my own.

I pass reluctantly.


USBGF Members win one point. Neil Kazaross leads 4-away/6-away.



USBGF Members: 65 24/13


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eF---c-e----A-:0:0:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.246
Player:
Opponent:
43.80% (G:11.49% B:0.68%)
56.20% (G:12.88% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.258...-0.233) - [99.3%]
Duration: 4 hours 10 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: -0.268 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
44.27% (G:11.88% B:0.88%)
55.73% (G:14.61% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.281...-0.256) - [0.7%]
Duration: 4 hours 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67815246
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 13/9.

I think this is very close for money play and I’d usually slot to complicate. Here at the score and vs. the very strong Reader Collective it looks prudent to make a play that is less gammonish and split. Hopefully the rollout can teach us something at this score. I will go with the cautious split.



USBGF Members: 51 24/23 13/8
Neil Kazaross: 42 8/4 6/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 150
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-D---dE--ab-d-b-A--:0:0:1:33:5:7:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CC-B---dE--abAd--b-A-:0:0:1:63:4:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/18 13/10eq: +0.512
Player:
Opponent:
60.78% (G:16.62% B:0.56%)
39.22% (G:9.63% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.499...+0.525) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout18/2* 5/2eq: +0.398 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
55.97% (G:20.92% B:1.22%)
44.03% (G:13.82% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.385...+0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36792465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/18 13/10
[ 4] 8/2* 5/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/18 13/10

This is one of those rolls that let us do something good, but are not decisive in themselves. Hitting inside is no longer the right option for us, not because we don’t want to attack, but because we have something much better to do with this 63 than we had with that earlier 61. 24/18 is very strong, combining two blots that could have got us in trouble into a valuable defensive point. Then 13/10 makes sense with the 3, setting up to do good things if on this roll, he doesn’t do any bad things. For those worried this play is not aggressive enough, you can think of it as “passive aggressive”, setting up for a more effective and sustainable attack later on, with a Plan B defense in place as well.



Neil Kazaross: 32 24/21 23/21
USBGF Members: 62 18/16*/10
Neil Kazaross: 11 b/24 8/7* 6/5(2)
USBGF Members: 22 b/21 13/11(2)
Neil Kazaross: 64 13/7 8/4*
USBGF Members: 64 b/21*/15
Neil Kazaross: 55 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 172
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--bCC-B-BBcB-A--bbb-b---:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CC-B---dE--abAd--b-A-:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:60.97% (G:18.57% B:0.83%)61.06% (G:19.06% B:0.87%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:39.03% (G:11.14% B:1.33%)38.94% (G:11.64% B:1.98%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.270+0.572
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.537±0.014 (+0.523..+0.552)
     Double/Take:+0.454 (-0.084)±0.018 (+0.436..+0.471)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.463)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36792465
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 17 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] No Double
[ 9] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

We have some rolls that do good things, but none of them are decisive unless he rolls something seriously lame in response. We aren’t ahead in the race, and our positional advantage is mostly about board quality and potential to improve, not anything all that solid. Nothing much is likely to happen between now and next turn, so let’s wait and see if we improve on this sequence, and then start thinking about a cube. No double, wait and see.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CC-B---dE--abAd--b-A-:0:0:1:63:4:7:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 163
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--BD-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:4:7:0:11:10
to play 61

1.Rollout18/2* 2/1*eq: +0.312
Player:
Opponent:
53.86% (G:20.78% B:0.84%)
46.14% (G:13.74% B:1.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.298...+0.326) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 11 minutes
2.playedRollout124/18 6/5eq: +0.279 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
55.52% (G:15.63% B:0.71%)
44.48% (G:12.75% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.266...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13707498
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 24/18 6/5
[10] 8/2*/1*
[ 4] 13/7 8/7
[ 1] 13/6


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/2*/1*

If we hit twice, we start a very thin blitz, but that just might be the ticket to our catching up in this match. The only alternative that makes sense is the positional, put-em-where-they-want-to-go 24/18 6/5. What I don’t like about that play at the score is that if Neil gets a blitz of his own going, he can double us in a situation where four points gets him out clean, not something we want to see or have to figure out. That play leaves him free to try to do that.

If instead we start a blitz of our own and it fails, the odds are decent that we can organize a defense on his side before we get run over. If our blitz picks up any speed, we will be the ones doubling, and his recube will be slowed down by the prospect of “kicking the rock” that allows us to take and reship for the match.

The double hit is unsatisfactory because it costs us our 8 point and does nothing to unstack the mid, but it still looks right at this score, so I think we should try it: 8/2*/1*.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CC-B---dE--acAe----A-:0:0:-1:53:4:7:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/3.

This roll isn’t good and looking at my choices excites me about as much as looking at a bag of rotten apples. 9/1* doesn’t accomplish anything but to hope to be missed and roll better next turn. 23/18 9/6 makes a bigger stack and leaves me with little offense and hoping to survive on their side of the board. Making my 3 point does little to stymie my opponents but at least it accomplishes something and leaves me diversified if not hit. OK that clinches it for me —
I will make my 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CC-B---dE--abAd--b-A-:0:0:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-BC-D--Bc--a-b-dcbB---:0:0:-1:00:4:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:78.92% (G:3.79% B:0.08%)79.45% (G:3.58% B:0.10%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:21.08% (G:1.07% B:0.04%)20.55% (G:1.12% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.604+1.189
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.957 (-0.043)±0.005 (+0.952..+0.962)
xg Double/Take:+1.026 (+0.026)±0.007 (+1.019..+1.034)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78555927
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] Pass
[11] Take


Mary Hickey abstains.

For the first time ever, I abstained from voting today. Not on the local school bond issue, which I did go out and vote for. But here at the OLM, I don’t know which is the right course, so I’m leaving it to the readers!

My gut says to take because of the score (letting him go to 4-away from this far behind without a fight when the position isn’t gammonish doesn’t feel right) but I also know that I’m overly quick to justify three-anchor takes because of the score, even when I’m sure they’re a pass for money, as is the case here.

The race is an important component of our equity, but it’s not that good here. Even a 66 probably will get us only to parity, not a lead. There are also a couple of disquieting positional elements here, including our missing midpoint, yes, but also our missing 4 point plus a stiff and ineffective builder distribution. That’s bad for the race if we get that 66, and also bad if we hit a shot, especially if it comes early. He’ll have quite a bit of immediate life after death because of that dead spot which we aren’t set up well to remedy quickly.

If we had the same pip count, which is not very good for this kind of ending, but at least had a better quality board, a more fluid distribution, and something good to do with a 55, maybe we could find a decent take at the score. Maybe we have one anyway, but I have enough doubt to say I can’t recommend it. Over the board, I’d probably take, but I’d also let a doubles pard talk me out of it.

I took an ending like this vs. Ed O’Laughlin in a 9 point match in North Carolina, maybe in 2014. (He probably remembers the year, what time of night it was, where we were sitting, and whether the hotel coffee was any good!) Passing would have meant going down 1A8A Crawford, so take and reship meant at least a chance to start a comeback. I noted that if I hit him, he wouldn’t have a lot of “life after death” since I already had a top-four board, and was better set than here to improve. But on the downside, his position was also better than here, with his midpoint already cleared and just one distant straggler to bring home. I hated passing when it wasn’t all that hard to see how I could win it, even though it didn’t look all that appetizing. I forget what the race was. I finally convinced myself to take by saying, “…and also a redoubled gammon lets me win the match clean, and there are always a couple of percent gammons hiding in most contact positions.” Well, XG bonked the decision, and also said I’d only win about a half-percent gammons, but I got one of them! As we left the playing room, I suggested to the director that he confiscate Ed’s belt and shoelaces.

So whatever the readers decide today, is fine by me. If I’m needed to break a tie, I’m voting for a take, but I’m not bonking a pass.



Neil Kazaross wins one point, and leads 4-away/7-away



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 41 24/23 13/9


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 163
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--BD-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:4:7:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-05-02

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 138
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--D-D-ABc--a-b-dcbB---:0:0:1:51:4:6:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 10/5 6/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 10/5 6/5

It’s hard to see any play here except making our 5 point. As the forum posters have noted, the big decision will be tomorrow when Neil throws a cube our way. Let’s get a head start thinking about it now!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 112
             
11 point match
              pip: 132
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B-BC-D--Bc--a-b-dcbB---:0:0:-1:00:4:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.