USBGF OLM 2019-08-11

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 8
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-FCBA-------------af-:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

1.Rollout18/5 7/1eq: -1.342
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.50% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.342...-1.342) - [98.6%]
Duration: 0.7 second
2.playedRollout18/5 8/2eq: -1.342 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.51% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.342...-1.342) - [1.4%]
Duration: 1.1 seconds
3.xgRollout19/3 8/5eq: -1.343 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.59% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.343...-1.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.7 second
4.Rollout19/6 7/1eq: -1.345 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.79% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.345...-1.345) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.9 second
5.Rollout19/6 8/2eq: -1.345 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.80% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.345...-1.345) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.7 second
 
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 8/5 8/2
[17] 9/3 8/5
[ 4] 8/5 7/1
[ 2] 9/6 8/2
[ 1] 9/6 7/1


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/5 7/1

Filling the gap on the 5 point is obvious.

Now let us look out for bad combinations. Three straight 21’s might be such a combination. It fails to bear off after 9/3 8/2 and after 7/1. Nothing worse out there.

So these plays are equal? Not sure! Let us look out for the good combinations too.

XG dislikes 9/3 8/5 by 0.001 since we lose 0.1% more gammons. So what is the combination? Mmhhhh… 21 11? Does not work after any combination. Phew! Ah, I see! 31 11 will not bear off in two rolls after 9/3 7/1.

If you would not find this over the board, don’t worry. I know at least one player who probably would miss it too. If you find it, the equity gain in an average tournament would probably be consumed by the cost of the extra calories you will need in order to compensate for the brain power you had to invest in order to find this solution.



Neil Kazaross: 44 2/0 1/0(3)
USBGF Members: 65 9/4 7/1
Neil Kazaross: 21 1/0(2)
USBGF Members: 42

Neil Kazaross wins a gammon and four points. The match is tied 6-away/6-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:43:5:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedBook113/10 13/9eq: +0.012
Player:
Opponent:
49.73% (G:14.98% B:0.75%)
50.27% (G:13.41% B:0.74%)
2.Book124/21 13/9eq: +0.004 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
49.90% (G:13.73% B:0.64%)
50.10% (G:13.04% B:0.56%)
3.Book124/20 13/10eq: +0.001 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
50.06% (G:13.38% B:0.61%)
49.94% (G:13.37% B:0.57%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 13/9.

I usually play 43 13/10 13/9 but at a tie score like this 43 24/21 13/9 is just as good.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:32:5:5:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 12
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-FBB----AA--------cf-:1:1:1:65:5:1:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout114/9 13/7eq: -1.380
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:33.93% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.381...-1.380) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.9 second
2.Rollout114/9 8/2eq: -1.393 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:35.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.393...-1.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.9 second
3.Rollout114/8 13/8eq: -1.396 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:35.30% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.396...-1.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.0 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 14/9 13/7
[10] 14/8 13/8
[ 1] 13/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 14/9 13/7

Let’s go with diversification and play 14/9 13/7 as we want to get a checker on our 5 point to guard against the very small chance or Neil rolling a couple of doubles and we never getting a checker on our 5 point and then losing a Gammon because we roll a 5.

If in doubt, diversify when you are bearing in without contact — it gives more choices.



Neil Kazaross: 53 2/0(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 8
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-FCBA-------------af-:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 16
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-EABA---BA-------acg-:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/7 9/6eq: -1.438
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.439...-1.437) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1.9 seconds
2.xgRollout114/11 13/7eq: -1.442 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.43% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.443...-1.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.0 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 8/5eq: -1.443 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.55% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.444...-1.442) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.2 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: -1.445 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.68% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.446...-1.444) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.1 seconds
5.Rollout114/8 9/6eq: -1.447 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.86% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.447...-1.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.8 seconds
6.Rollout114/5eq: -1.447 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.90% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.448...-1.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.6 seconds
7.Rollout114/8 13/10eq: -1.447 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:39.93% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.449...-1.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.7 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 13/7 9/6
[ 5] 14/5
[ 5] 14/11 13/7
[ 4] 13/7 8/5
[ 3] 14/8 9/6
[ 2] 14/8 13/10
[ 2] 14/8 7/4


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/7 9/6

Two crossovers, no wasted pips. 13/7 8/5 would be my co-favourite since it fills the gap on the 5 point. The rollout shows that it does not really matter how you play unless you waste pips without filling the gap on the 5 point.



Neil Kazaross: 31 3/0 1/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 12
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-FBB----AA--------cf-:1:1:1:65:5:1:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 24
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-EAB----B-A---Aa-bcg-:1:1:1:65:5:1:0:11:10
to play 65

1.Rollout119/14 13/7eq: -1.480
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:42.80% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.480...-1.479) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
2.Rollout115/10 13/7eq: -1.483 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.484...-1.483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
3.Rollout219/8eq: -1.484 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.23% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.485...-1.483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12.3 seconds
4.Rollout213/8 13/7eq: -1.485 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.30% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.486...-1.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14.5 seconds
5.playedRollout219/14 15/9eq: -1.485 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.31% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.487...-1.483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12.2 seconds
6.xgRollout215/9 13/8eq: -1.485 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.32% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.486...-1.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13.1 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 19/14 15/9
[ 8] 19/13 15/10
[ 3] 15/10 13/7
[ 1] 19/8
[ 1] 19/13 7/2
[ 1] 15/9 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 19/14 13/7

The 5 should be played 19/14 diversifying our outfield checkers.

The 6 is more interesting. The correct move is 13/7. We need to ensure we have more than one 1 so we can play 7/6 getting the final crossover efficiently. I call a crossover the final crossover if it puts a checker into your home board.

If we alter the original position by moving a checker from the 6 point back to the 7 point then we have two final crossovers with 1’s already and 15/9 becomes the correct move.

But if we take the original position and move a checker 8/7 giving us two final crossovers with 1’s, 13/7 stays the correct move! It seems that having four checkers able to make a final crossover is important.

A very interesting position.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 19/14 15/9

Two cross overs, best diversification.



Neil Kazaross: 54 5/0 3/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 16
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-EABA---BA-------acg-:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 40
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-DBB----B-----Bcbbce-:1:1:1:41:5:1:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout119/15 7/6eq: -1.479
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:42.71% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.479...-1.478) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 11 seconds
2.xgRollout113/9 7/6eq: -1.481 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:42.91% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.482...-1.480) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout219/15 13/12eq: -1.487 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.44% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.489...-1.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 31 seconds
4.Rollout213/12 13/9eq: -1.488 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.51% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.490...-1.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 22 seconds
5.Rollout219/18 13/9eq: -1.490 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.71% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.492...-1.487) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds
6.Rollout219/18 19/15eq: -1.492 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:43.94% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.495...-1.490) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 00 second
7.Rollout219/14eq: -1.503 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:44.85% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.504...-1.501) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds
8.Rollout219/15 3/2eq: -1.504 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:44.97% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.505...-1.502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 29 seconds
9.Rollout213/9 3/2eq: -1.505 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:45.11% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.507...-1.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 52 seconds
10.Rollout219/15 8/7eq: -1.508 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:45.35% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.509...-1.507) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 28 seconds
11.Rollout213/9 8/7eq: -1.509 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:45.39% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.510...-1.507) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 14 seconds
12.Rollout213/8eq: -1.511 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:45.60% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.512...-1.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 04 seconds
13.Rollout213/9 6/5eq: -1.520 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:46.45% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.522...-1.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 10 seconds
14.Rollout219/15 6/5eq: -1.521 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:46.54% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.523...-1.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 32 seconds
15.Rollout28/4 7/6eq: -1.524 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:46.73% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.525...-1.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 12 seconds
16.Rollout213/12 8/4eq: -1.530 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:47.33% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.532...-1.528) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 21 seconds
17.Rollout219/18 8/4eq: -1.534 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:47.65% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.536...-1.532) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 19/15 7/6
[ 5] 19/18 13/9
[ 3] 19/18 19/15
[ 3] 19/15 13/12
[ 1] 13/9 7/6
[ 1] 19/18 8/4
[ 1] 8/4 7/6
[ 1] 13/12 8/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/9 7/6

The most important part of this roll is the 1 – as long as we play 7/6 getting another checker into our home board we have done the right thing.

Next either 13/9 or 19/15 is acceptable. I have a slight preference for 13/9 as it aims another checker at our 5 point which increases our chances of putting a checker on it.



Neil Kazaross: 44 5/1(2) 4/0(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 24
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-EAB----B-A---Aa-bcg-:1:1:1:65:5:1:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 8/14 830a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-08-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 48
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--DCB---aB-----AbbbceA:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/19 7/4eq: -1.121
Player:
Opponent:
10.82% (G:0.74% B:0.02%)
89.18% (G:33.60% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.126...-1.117) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/19 8/5eq: -1.133 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
10.56% (G:0.74% B:0.02%)
89.44% (G:34.24% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.137...-1.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/19 6/3eq: -1.183 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
10.07% (G:0.67% B:0.02%)
89.93% (G:37.45% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.186...-1.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] b/19 7/4
[12] b/19 8/5
[ 5] b/19 6/3



Neil Kazaross: 53 13/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 40
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BA-DBB----B-----Bcbbce-:1:1:1:41:5:1:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DAC---bC-b-bbdbA--A-:1:1:1:61:5:1:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout124/23 13/7eq: -0.516
Player:
Opponent:
32.17% (G:8.93% B:0.66%)
67.83% (G:25.54% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.521...-0.510) - [94.8%]
Duration: 59 minutes 01 second
2.playedRollout113/7 8/7eq: -0.522 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
31.15% (G:8.89% B:0.57%)
68.85% (G:24.05% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.528...-0.517) - [5.2%]
Duration: 58 minutes 48 seconds
3.Rollout124/23 7/1* eq: -0.581 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
28.00% (G:7.11% B:0.29%)
72.00% (G:21.81% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.587...-0.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
4.Rollout113/7 6/5eq: -0.613 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
30.15% (G:8.47% B:0.49%)
69.85% (G:29.25% B:1.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.619...-0.607) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
5.Rollout18/1* eq: -0.620 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
28.45% (G:7.50% B:0.30%)
71.55% (G:25.04% B:2.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.625...-0.614) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 13/7 8/7
[17] 24/23 13/7
[ 4] 13/7 6/5
[ 1] 8/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 13/7

Whatever we do with the 1, we will be playing 13/7 with the 6 so let’s move that then decide on the 1 – this is exactly what I would do over the board.

6/5 is too big, as we do not want to slot when we are split and about to be attacked.

8/7 does not improve our position in any significant way. It does not harm, but also does no good either.

24/23 freezes Neil’s checkers on the 8 point so that if he attacks us and breaks his 8 point, we will have more return shots. This is the move that I like.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/7 8/7

We should discard any hitting play. It would be a more a tempo hit. It leaves us with three blots around and if we get hit we lose our racing chances which are still good. Better to make the bar point and keep two game plans alive, which are the running game and priming Neil´s remaining checker.

The contenders are 13/7 8/7 and 24/23 13/7. The latter is defensive. It somehow freezes Neil’s checkers on the 8 point as builder for his 5, 3 or 2 point, since the remaining checker would be under additional attack by our checker on the 23 point. But it is defensive and having an offensive alternative we should opt for the offensive play in case of doubt. 13/7 8/7 helps us making the 4 point or the 5 point with 23, 43 and 21. Freezing his checker will affect his rolls 31, 53 and 65. Anyhow, Neil should run with 64 and 54 and of course hit on the 4 point with 32 and 42. Since the analysis comes to the same number of affected roll by the offensive and defensive play, I would opt for the offensive play which is 13/7 8/7.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DCB---bB-b-bbdbA--A-:1:1:-1:66:5:1:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout110/4*(2) 7/1*(2) eq: +1.167
Player:
Opponent:
79.13% (G:58.87% B:0.50%)
20.87% (G:4.48% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.162...+1.171) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout110/4*(2) 8/2(2)eq: +0.938 (-0.229)
Player:
Opponent:
76.57% (G:42.96% B:1.09%)
23.43% (G:4.50% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.933...+0.943) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout113/1* 10/4*(2) eq: +0.899 (-0.268)
Player:
Opponent:
74.34% (G:44.92% B:0.87%)
25.66% (G:5.98% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.894...+0.904) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout113/7(2) 10/4*(2) eq: +0.755 (-0.412)
Player:
Opponent:
73.46% (G:32.50% B:1.37%)
26.54% (G:4.72% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.750...+0.760) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4*(2) 7/1*(2).

A crushing shot when I have 12 checkers in the zone, turning the game into a blitz.



USBGF Members: 65 no play
Neil Kazaross: 22 6/2(2)
USBGF Members: 43 b/22


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 102
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DCB---bB---b-bbbAbbA:1:1:-1:55:5:1:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout113/3*(2) eq: +1.801
Player:
Opponent:
93.74% (G:83.94% B:0.55%)
6.26% (G:0.40% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.799...+1.803) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout113/3* 8/3(2)eq: +1.795 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
93.73% (G:83.45% B:0.53%)
6.27% (G:0.37% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.794...+1.797) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/3*(2).

13/3*(2) looks to be best here, as I don’t gain anything by remaining with a checker on the midpoint nor by adding a spare to my 3 point. I also don’t want to have to open my board with 11.



Neil Kazaross: 55 8/3(2) 6/1(2)
USBGF Members: 61 b/19


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 62
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DCB----B-----AbbdbdA:1:1:-1:11:5:1:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout124/23 3/2 3/1eq: +0.321
Player:
Opponent:
58.24% (G:27.67% B:0.09%)
41.76% (G:3.90% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.315...+0.327) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout13/1(2)eq: +0.274 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
56.91% (G:26.53% B:0.10%)
43.09% (G:4.35% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.268...+0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 3/2 3/1.

Breaking the board is unthinkable. Therefore I play 3/2 3/1 and must decide upon the final ace. I went through all of my next rolls for both plays and stepping and retaining a spare ace was clearly best 11 times whereas staying back was clearly best only 7 times.



USBGF Members: 42 no play
Neil Kazaross: 52 23/16
USBGF Members: 44 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 51
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--DCBa---B-----AbbbceA:1:1:-1:21:5:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout116/13eq: +1.454
Player:
Opponent:
90.09% (G:61.20% B:0.05%)
9.91% (G:0.57% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.449...+1.458) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout116/14 2/1eq: +1.342 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
87.24% (G:57.36% B:0.07%)
12.76% (G:0.76% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.338...+1.347) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/13.

This play is almost universally automatic, as both plays leave two shots, so I bring my straggler closer to home.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 48
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---B--DCB---aB-----AbbbceA:1:1:1:63:5:1:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DAC---bC-b-bce-A--A-:0:0:-1:00:5:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.25% (G:19.25% B:0.84%) 65.45% (G:19.35% B:0.81%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.75% (G:8.64% B:0.37%) 34.55% (G:8.89% B:0.41%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.411 +0.885
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.700 (-0.070)±0.010 (+0.690..+0.710)
played Double/Take:+0.770±0.012 (+0.758..+0.782)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.230)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] Take
[12] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

First we have to ask ourselves what is the cube action for money, then adjust for the score.

For money, this isn’t quite a double, but it must be close. Neil has a small race lead, we have the better board and Neil has threats. Neil has 12 checkers in the attack zone. But we do have the better board and if hit with a 6 we could anchor. For money, all the counter play makes this a No Double.

At this score where Neil is 10 away and we are 6 away, this must be a double, but this is still an easy take.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: Take

I don’t think this could be pass since Neil has not established a further homeboard point yet. The fact that were are up 6-away/10-away brings no change. When being up in the match our concern are gammons or high cubes. The take point for non gammonish 2 cubes does hardly change.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

They rolled a poor shot and since I think this is probably into doubling range in a money game, I am certainly doubling at this score.



Neil Kazaross: 21 7/5 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DAC---bC-b-bbdbA--A-:1:1:1:61:5:1:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---bD-b-bce----AA:0:0:1:64:5:1:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/7eq: -0.766
Player:
Opponent:
34.56% (G:9.02% B:0.54%)
65.44% (G:19.59% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.779...-0.753) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 8/2eq: -0.935 (-0.169)
Player:
Opponent:
32.55% (G:8.14% B:0.52%)
67.45% (G:22.01% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.947...-0.923) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] b/21 13/7
[ 4] b/21 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 13/7

We only have two possible 6’s – 8/2 or 13/7. As long as we have a spare on the 13 point, we should play 13/7. 13/7 duplicates 6’s and starts the 7 point which is a point we would like to have to contain Neil.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/21 13/7

13/7 is clearly better than 8/2, since it slots the stronger point even though it leaves six more shots. When everything works fine we will establish the bar point next roll and have a reasonable position, whereas the best that can happen after 8/2 is a race in which we are down with two deep points and no hope to prime Neil’s last checker.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--DAC---bC-b-bce-A--A-:0:0:-1:00:5:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-08-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---cD-b-bbe--A-A-:0:0:1:62:5:1:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout124/16eq: -0.467
Player:
Opponent:
41.08% (G:10.01% B:0.49%)
58.92% (G:17.49% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.477...-0.457) - [98.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.Rollout122/16 13/11eq: -0.483 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
40.25% (G:11.14% B:0.50%)
59.75% (G:17.18% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.494...-0.473) - [1.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 13/7eq: -0.504 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
37.75% (G:9.55% B:0.42%)
62.25% (G:10.63% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.515...-0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
4.playedRollout122/14eq: -0.514 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
39.49% (G:9.73% B:0.33%)
60.51% (G:15.63% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.524...-0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
5.Rollout124/22 8/2eq: -0.519 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
37.15% (G:8.84% B:0.23%)
62.85% (G:10.40% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.530...-0.509) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 22/14
[11] 24/22 13/7
[ 8] 24/16
[ 1] 24/22 8/2
[ 1] 13/5


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/16

I musst admit that this XG++ result came as a kind of surprise to me after having thought shortly about the position. Over the board I might have played 24/22 13/7.

How can it be right to forego an anchor and make a play that exposes one checker to a double shot and the other checker to the attack of 11 of Neil’s checkers ?

I found two main reasons: 13/7 is ugly because of 17 hits and because it does not bring so much if the blot is not be hit due to our lack of additional points. In addition, the anchor on the 22 point is deep and Neil threatens to prime our back checkers.

By playing 24/16, we escape the prime and keep connectivity between our last checkers, hoping to make the 16 point later. In addition, the checker on the 16 point helps to contain Neil’s checker on our 1 point. It covers part of our outfield and increases our shots considerably if Neil’s back checker escapes to our outboard.

Since Neil has no additional home board point yet, we can take some chances by forgoing the anchor and going for the bigger goal, which is escaping his prime and controlling the outfield.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---cDAb-bbe----A-:0:0:-1:00:5:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60.67% (G:15.32% B:0.51%) 60.70% (G:15.77% B:0.54%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.33% (G:9.70% B:0.41%) 39.30% (G:9.96% B:0.43%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.263 +0.573
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.507±0.010 (+0.497..+0.518)
     Double/Take:+0.432 (-0.076)±0.013 (+0.419..+0.445)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.493)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

This is what I call a position that threatens to become a double. Neither side has accomplished very much and while I have some advantage I need a joker sequence to justify cubing.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---cDAb-bbe----A-:0:0:-1:42:5:1:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/11* 11/7eq: +0.632
Player:
Opponent:
63.43% (G:16.24% B:0.69%)
36.57% (G:9.18% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.622...+0.643) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 13/11* eq: +0.575 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
62.28% (G:15.25% B:0.71%)
37.72% (G:10.16% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.564...+0.587) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11*/7.

13/11*/7 is clear, since if I hit and step up I am subject to many annoying hits when outboarded. After my safe play, hoping to retain the initiative, I can consider a score-based cube if they roll poorly from the bar.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---bD-b-bce----AA:0:0:1:64:5:1:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-08-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:5:1:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout124/22 13/8eq: -0.297
Player:
Opponent:
44.40% (G:11.19% B:0.60%)
55.60% (G:13.67% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.308...-0.285) - [51.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 6/1* eq: -0.297 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
44.26% (G:12.19% B:0.55%)
55.74% (G:13.80% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.308...-0.286) - [48.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/22 13/8
[12] 24/22 6/1*
[ 1] 13/11 6/1*
[ 1] 13/6
[ 1] 13/8 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 13/8

In New Zealand the Jacoby rule is not used in money games. The disadvantage is when I play in a chouette overseas I have to get used to it. The advantage is that without the Jacoby rule, money play is more like match play. Another advantage is I tend to notice when the second roll replies are different with or without Jacoby. There are not many but there are a few, and 63 split, 52 is one of those cases.

With 64 24/18 13/9, then a 52 to play, it is correct in both cases to play 24/22 6/1* as your opponent’s builder on their 9 point is so powerful.

With a 62 24/18 13/11 then a 52 to play, it is correct in both cases, I would play 24/22 6/1* but without Jacoby splitting 24/22 13/8 is exactly equal and with Jacoby it is only 8 milli points behind so it is effectively a good choice.

With a 63 24/18 13/10 then a 52 to play, with Jacoby the hit or split are exactly equal, but without Jacoby 24/22 13/8 is correct by 18 milli points. So in the match we are playing without Jacoby, and we are ahead so want to be a bit more cautious, so we should play 24/22 13/8. But it is so close that I would not argue with a doubles partner who wanted to hit.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/22 13/8

For money it is borderline with hit and split playing 24/22 6/1*. This play wins slightly more gammons and loses a little more games. Since we are up in the match winning is more important than winning a gammon (the gammon price goes down the more we are up). Thus we chose the play that brings more wins. Interesting is that according to XG++ the recommended play loses 0.1% more gammons. The reason might be that Neil has more chances to build his board what increases his gammon chances more than the chance to hit a blot and send it 24 pips back.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaD---dD-a-c-e--A-A-:0:0:-1:62:5:1:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout118/10eq: +0.308
Player:
Opponent:
56.49% (G:11.69% B:0.41%)
43.51% (G:10.15% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.298...+0.317) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 6/4eq: +0.285 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
55.03% (G:13.91% B:0.52%)
44.97% (G:11.06% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.275...+0.296) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout124/18 10/8eq: +0.256 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
55.16% (G:10.82% B:0.32%)
44.84% (G:9.00% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.247...+0.266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes
4.Rollout124/18 13/11eq: +0.235 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
54.14% (G:12.33% B:0.37%)
45.86% (G:10.68% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.225...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/10.

I stress that good players should try to know most of the third roll continuations to openings they usually play. Since I always split an opening 63 and since 52 splitting is a common response (quite a few players don’t want to hit on the ace point even though rollout shows that it basically is a coin flip decision), I know that making the 10 point is best for money. This creates a safe a sound outfield position where I am somewhat ahead in the race and have one checker back vs. their two. Now the only roll that they can beneficially hit me with is 55. I can look forward to rolling something useful next turn as I shouldn’t be on the bar.

Making my 4 point is an option as well, and might be best at Gammon Go, but we aren’t yet at an extreme score, so I will go with the play that should win the most games. I can also anchor 24/18, but then 13/11 leaves too many shots and 10/8 seems too static.



USBGF Members: 53 8/3 6/3
Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-C---cD-b-bbe--A-A-:0:0:1:62:5:1:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--cBBBB-B---aB---cacb--BbA:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 76.70% (G:33.82% B:2.21%) 76.63% (G:34.12% B:2.26%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 23.30% (G:6.86% B:0.28%) 23.37% (G:6.93% B:0.27%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.834 +1.636
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.958 (-0.042)
     Double/Take:+1.335 (+0.335)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] Double
[ 8] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

How much things have changed in this sequence. We now hit with entering 1’s and Neil has a third checker back.

Neil does not have much timing, as he has lost his midpoint and in fact, even the rolls where we stay on the bar lose our market! The only rolls that do not lose our market are 62, 44 and 33 which still have positive equity.

We easily have a net nine market losers that O’Hagan’s Law say we need, and must be very close to being Too Good to Double.

We should double and I expect Neil to pass.


Neil Kazaross passes.

My position is much worse than last turn. Now I have a third checker back, and they have 14 shots. If they hit either blot, I can look forward to hoping to save the gammon. This is a big pass.


USBGF Members win one point and lead 6-away/10-away.



Neil Kazaross: 63 24/18 13/10

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:5:1:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 133
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBB-B---bB---cacb--BbA:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.59% (G:21.52% B:1.12%) 64.52% (G:21.36% B:1.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.41% (G:12.01% B:0.49%) 35.48% (G:11.97% B:0.46%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.398 +0.754
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.471
     Double/Take:+0.300 (-0.171)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.529)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] No Double
[ 9] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

For money, using O’Hagan’s Law if we have nine net market losers and are doing ok on the other rolls, we should double.

Our market losers are the hitting rolls 54, 53, 52, and 43. Also, maybe 22. That gives us nine market losers, but we need to subtract any anti market losers, which are any roll we roll after which Neil can double us, whether we have a take or not is irrelevant. Although Neil does not have a redouble after any of our rolls even 62 (bar/23 13/7) we are not doing ok here with a lot of rolls – the nine rolls we stay on the bar, as well as 44, 33, 62, 41 and 32. So, overall we should not be doubling here for money but it would be close.

So, since this is not a double for money, then we should not be doubling here with our 7 away 10 away lead in the match.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: No Double

This is a very deceptive position.

The general criteria for an initial cube seem to be fulfilled. Our position is better, we threaten to improve up position considerably before we roll again and we will still be the favourite in case we will not be able to execute a threat.

XG says is a small no double for money and here is my guess why:

Due to the fact that we have three checkers in Neil’s home board we will only be a small favourite in case we won’t hit. We may even be underdog when we fan and Neil has a good number like 15 or 55. In addition, after we hit and Neil enters he will have only a small or clear but no big pass.

As a general rule we may assume that it is in most cases neither a double nor a pass when the guy on roll has three checkers in the opponents home board in a prime versus prime position.

Knowing that is no double for money we know that it is even bigger no double when we are up in the match.



USBGF Members: 52 b/18*
Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23 13/7*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--cBBBB-B---aB---cacb--BbA:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aa-CD-BA--dB---b-dbA-AaA:0:0:1:22:4:1:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/23 6/4(2) 5/3* eq: +0.368
Player:
Opponent:
60.24% (G:24.30% B:1.26%)
39.76% (G:13.69% B:0.74%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/21 6/4(2)eq: +0.208 (-0.161)
Player:
Opponent:
56.56% (G:19.99% B:0.88%)
43.44% (G:12.48% B:0.42%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] b/23 6/4(2) 5/3*
[15] b/21 6/4(2)
[ 1] b/23 13/11 13/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 6/4(2) 5/3*

The first three 2’s are easy – Bar/23 6/4(2) giving us a stronger board.

Offense or Defence, i.e. 23/21 or 5/3*? In general offense comes before defence and here we have 11 checkers in the zone, a stronger board, an anchor, more checkers back and Neil has an inner board blot. Those of you who know Paul Magriel’s Safe vs Bold Criteria will see that every one of his guidelines says play boldly, and playing boldly here means attacking with 5/3*.

Yes we are ahead in the match, which means we should be a bit more cautious, but not here.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/23 6/4(2) 5/3*

Offence vs. defence?

Bar/21 6/4(2) looks good and safe. Does it bring more equity than the recommended offensive play brings? The answer would be in the affirmative if Neil had a stronger attack. i.e. more builders in the zone and if at the same time our attack would be weaker. When in doubt always go for the offensive play since it helps winning the game whereas the defensive play only protects you from losing the game prior to maturity.

In this particular case the “safe” play is not that safe because Neils can hit our checker on the 9 point with 15 rolls. So hitting loose on the 3 point does not give much more shots than Neil has anyway, but it makes escaping much more difficult for him and he might even dance. Of course this results in more wins and more gammons for us compared to the “safe” play. Due to his weak attack and due our anchor on the 2 point, we should not risk too many additional gammons.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aABBB-BA--dB---b-dbA-Ba-:0:0:-1:52:4:1:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/23 6/1eq: -0.313
Player:
Opponent:
39.28% (G:13.21% B:0.52%)
60.72% (G:19.37% B:0.94%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.380 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
38.04% (G:12.21% B:0.49%)
61.96% (G:19.61% B:0.98%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 6/1.

I am happy to be able to enter, and happy to be able to cover my ace point.



USBGF Members: 63 21/18 9/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 144
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBB-B---dB---bAcb--Bb-:0:0:-1:65:4:1:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 13/7.

I hit 13/7* and then have a difficult 5. Positionally, I’d like to come out 23/18, but this means that I am getting hit by most of their entering rolls, and I think that is too much to risk when the have a 4 point board. I’ll wimp with the prudent 13/8 and hope to be missed, and then build a new blocking point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 133
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBB-B---bB---cacb--BbA:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a--BD-Ba-AdC---b-ebA-AA-:0:0:1:64:4:1:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedXG Roller++13/9* 11/5eq: -0.128
Player:
Opponent:
49.16% (G:16.92% B:0.76%)
50.84% (G:16.37% B:1.07%)
2.XG Roller++24/18 13/9* eq: -0.140 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
49.97% (G:15.00% B:0.70%)
50.03% (G:18.22% B:1.53%)
3.XG Roller++21/15 13/9* eq: -0.145 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
49.93% (G:15.85% B:0.74%)
50.07% (G:18.44% B:1.44%)
4.XG Roller++13/9* 8/2* eq: -0.196 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
47.94% (G:18.12% B:0.62%)
52.06% (G:19.54% B:1.89%)
5.XG Roller++8/2* 6/2eq: -0.200 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
46.68% (G:17.18% B:0.50%)
53.32% (G:16.32% B:1.16%)
6.XG Roller++13/7 11/7eq: -0.223 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
47.44% (G:13.58% B:0.61%)
52.56% (G:16.95% B:0.92%)
7.XG Roller++13/9* 9/3eq: -0.309 (-0.182)
Player:
Opponent:
46.07% (G:14.76% B:0.65%)
53.93% (G:20.17% B:1.63%)
8.XG Roller++21/11eq: -0.310 (-0.182)
Player:
Opponent:
44.76% (G:11.61% B:0.41%)
55.24% (G:15.82% B:0.65%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 13/9* 11/5
[ 8] 21/15 13/9*
[ 8] 13/9* 8/2*
[ 5] 8/2* 6/2
[ 3] 13/7 11/7
[ 1] 24/18 13/9*
[ 1] 21/11


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/9* 11/5

I would dismiss making the 2 point quickly – we only have nine checkers in the zone and having three checkers in Neil’s board makes this unattractive.

So we have to hit 13/9*. How to play the 6?

8/2* lets Neil hit from the bar so is too big.

21/15 connects the checkers so I would not argue with this in a chouette, 24/18 does the same and again I would not argue with this in a chouette.

The play I like is 11/5, after which we have 10 checkers in the attack zone. If we do not move it, then the checker on the 11 point is bearing on the 5 point which is already made. We will have one of Neil’s checkers on the bar, and will be ready to attack.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/9* 11/5

First question is if we want to hit or make the bar point. The latter brings a permanent asset and the merits of such asset add up every consecutive roll.

The downside is that Neil has already escaped one checker and we fail to send it back. Escaping one checker is a big achievement in the early stages and vice versa sending it back brings great advantage.

We have similar two point boards. A good structure but still four points open and not too many builders so getting hit back does not cost too much. We can afford to take some chances if that’s justified by the reward.

The possible reward can be summarized as follows:

More gammons, gain of a tempo (Neil has to use half of his roll to enter and cannot improve his position further to possibly making an anchor), racing advantage. In addition after any hitting play will have ample builders in the zone and probably will be able to establish further points soon whereas it will be more difficult to seen back another checker of Neil after we make the bar point.

This all boils down to hit 13/9*.

Let us find the 6. 24/18 gives (too?) many return shots. 21/15 seems better but is disconnects our back checkers. At the same time the checker on the 21 point is only under moderate attack.

11/5 keeps connectivity on Neil’s side of the board an brings an important builder to the zone for the continuation of our attack.

Interesting that XG seems to like 8/2* 6/2 quite well.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-a--CD-BA--dB---b-ebA-AA-:0:0:-1:53:4:1:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 6/1* eq: +0.058
Player:
Opponent:
48.85% (G:16.52% B:0.90%)
51.15% (G:18.36% B:0.88%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.013 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
48.02% (G:14.68% B:0.86%)
51.98% (G:19.24% B:0.74%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/22 23/18eq: -0.051 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
47.73% (G:14.86% B:1.11%)
52.27% (G:22.20% B:0.71%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 6/1*.

I notice their array of builders aimed at me. I also notice my big stack on my 6 point. Both of these factors mean that I should strongly consider 6/1* as a tempo play. I think the fact that they dance 11% of the time is enough to make this correct.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aa-CD-BA--dB---b-dbA-AaA:0:0:1:22:4:1:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:21:4:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.277
Player:
Opponent:
45.92% (G:12.48% B:0.75%)
54.08% (G:16.80% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.288...-0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout124/21eq: -0.305 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
45.47% (G:11.71% B:0.66%)
54.53% (G:16.79% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.316...-0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 24/22eq: -0.331 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
44.75% (G:11.21% B:0.54%)
55.25% (G:16.96% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.341...-0.320) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 24/23 13/11
[ 5] 24/21
[ 1] 24/23 24/22


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 13/11

The standard reply here is just 24/23 13/11, and being ahead in the match I see no reason to alter our reply, so let’s stick with 24/23 13/11.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C--AdD--ac-e---AA-:0:0:-1:43:4:1:0:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout124/20 23/20eq: +0.324
Player:
Opponent:
55.60% (G:14.22% B:0.47%)
44.40% (G:8.66% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.320...+0.328) - [98.3%]
Duration: 17 hours 12 minutes
2.playedRollout19/5 8/5eq: +0.317 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
54.82% (G:17.75% B:0.72%)
45.18% (G:11.96% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.313...+0.322) - [1.7%]
Duration: 14 hours 03 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/5 8/5.

At this score, I felt my opening 41 was a close decision, since the trailer benefits from increased mutual gammon chances. Had I been a point or two further behind, I’d have slotted. Here with this 43 I face a similar decision. I am rather sure that it is slightly best for money to just grab the 20 point anchor. Therefore the decision is likely very close at this score. I also want a longer and more complicated game in this setting when I am clearly behind in the match. This makes me want to make my 5 point here, although it does still leave me stacked on the 6 point and strips my 8 point. However, I am not leaving a bunch of fly shots as I would if I anchored.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 64 24/14*
USBGF Members: 42 b/21 13/11*
Neil Kazaross: 63 b/16


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a--BD-Ba-AdC---b-ebA-AA-:0:0:1:64:4:1:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AABC-B---eC---bbdBb-A--:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.58% (G:9.13% B:0.23%) 75.36% (G:8.06% B:0.22%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.42% (G:3.39% B:0.08%) 24.64% (G:3.19% B:0.13%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.548 +1.122
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.941 (-0.059)±0.005 (+0.936..+0.946)
xg Double/Take:+1.024 (+0.024)±0.009 (+1.015..+1.033)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Pass
[22] Take


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

My 61 has improved my game by adding an additional landing point.


Neil Kazaross wins one point. The USBGF Members lead 7-away/10-away.



Neil Kazaross: 41 24/23 13/9


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:21:4:1:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-25

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-AD-C---eC---bbdBb-A--:0:0:1:32:4:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/5 6/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
24.78% (G:3.35% B:0.14%)
75.22% (G:8.11% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 6/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
24.14% (G:3.05% B:0.10%)
75.86% (G:7.63% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
3.Rollout113/11 8/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
24.15% (G:3.11% B:0.13%)
75.85% (G:7.93% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
4.Rollout123/20 13/11eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.10% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
79.90% (G:2.40% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
5.Rollout123/20 5/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.23% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
79.77% (G:2.76% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
6.Rollout123/20 6/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
20.15% (G:1.12% B:0.04%)
79.85% (G:2.59% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 8/5 6/4
[ 6] 13/11 8/5
[ 3] 13/11 6/3
[ 1] 23/20 6/4
[ 1] 23/20 5/3
[ 1] 23/20 13/11


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 6/4

We need to cover 8/5 with the 3, then as we are unlikely to get a shot now so we should slot 6/4 to quickly build our board.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/5 6/4

Build our board and wait for a shot. No need to think of avoiding being attacked, avoiding being forced to leave the anchor or saving the gammon by playing 23/20 at this stage.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AABC-B---eC---bbdBb-A--:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-07-24

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=------E-D---fC---c-dBb-A--:0:0:1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout18/3 6/5eq: -0.742
Player:
Opponent:
31.21% (G:5.31% B:0.17%)
68.79% (G:9.61% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.751...-0.733) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: -0.767 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
30.37% (G:4.89% B:0.12%)
69.63% (G:9.04% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.777...-0.757) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.Rollout18/7 8/3eq: -0.789 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
29.91% (G:5.00% B:0.17%)
70.09% (G:9.28% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.799...-0.779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
4.Rollout113/7eq: -0.791 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
29.54% (G:4.59% B:0.28%)
70.46% (G:8.45% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.801...-0.780) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout18/2eq: -0.827 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
29.20% (G:4.49% B:0.16%)
70.80% (G:9.21% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.837...-0.816) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 34 seconds
6.Rollout123/22 8/3eq: -0.855 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
27.99% (G:3.69% B:0.15%)
72.01% (G:7.70% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.864...-0.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
7.Rollout16/5 6/1eq: -0.869 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:
28.09% (G:4.28% B:0.11%)
71.91% (G:9.12% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.879...-0.859) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
8.Rollout123/22 13/8eq: -0.878 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
27.41% (G:3.09% B:0.10%)
72.59% (G:7.28% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.887...-0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 8/3 6/5
[10] 13/8 6/5
[ 6] 23/18 6/5
[ 1] 23/22 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/5

We are playing a holding game. To win a holding game you need to:

  • Get a shot,
  • Hit the blot,
  • Contain the hit checker.

The first two on the list require some luck, but make sure when you achieve them, you have a good solid board or prime waiting for that hit checker. The best way to get that board or prime is to slot the points you want then cover them.

The 1 should be played 6/5, starting the 5 point.

The 5 is more interesting, We should avoid 13/8 here as it strips the 13 point, so 8/3 has to be correct. If we had another checker on the 13 point we might play 13/8.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/3 6/5

Build our board as quick as possible. Stripping the midpoint is bad as is running off the 23 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-AD-C---fC---c-dBb-A--:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.97% (G:9.37% B:0.29%) 69.12% (G:9.19% B:0.29%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.03% (G:5.29% B:0.16%) 30.88% (G:5.27% B:0.23%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.419 +0.859
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.744±0.003 (+0.741..+0.748)
xg Double/Take:+0.737 (-0.007)±0.004 (+0.733..+0.742)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.256)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:99.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 hours 11 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

Up 24 pips and behind in the match, I have a few market losing sequences here, but just a few. Often if I improve somewhat they may take next turn. I’ll just roll.



Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-AD-C---eC---bbdBb-A--:0:0:1:32:4:0:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-D---fD---b-d-bA-A-:0:0:1:41:4:0:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.528
Player:
Opponent:
38.93% (G:9.34% B:0.47%)
61.07% (G:16.24% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.532...-0.524) - [98.7%]
Duration: 11 hours 24 minutes
2.xgRollout113/8eq: -0.535 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
38.81% (G:8.83% B:0.41%)
61.19% (G:16.73% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.539...-0.531) - [1.3%]
Duration: 11 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout26/1* eq: -0.587 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
37.37% (G:8.73% B:0.29%)
62.63% (G:15.97% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.594...-0.580) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 48 minutes
4.Rollout224/23 22/18eq: -0.591 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
38.37% (G:8.21% B:0.47%)
61.63% (G:19.26% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.598...-0.584) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 37 minutes
5.Rollout213/9 6/5eq: -0.611 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
38.74% (G:9.56% B:0.67%)
61.26% (G:21.48% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.620...-0.602) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 24/23 13/9
[ 5] 13/9 6/5
[ 5] 24/23 22/18
[ 5] 13/8
[ 2] 6/1*
[ 1] 22/18 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 13/9

The only 4 that looks good to me is 13/9. This creates a builder which will be hopefully used in conjunction with a checker from our 8 point.

I would not slot 6/5, as that just diversifies Neil’s numbers. 9/8 stacks the 8 point and removes the builder, so I will go with 24/23.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/23 13/9

We are down in the race, Neil has already escaped one checker and he has a stronger board. We want to catch up by building homeboard points, and we should take chances to do so now, while he has not yet too many checkers in his homeboard zone. 13/9 diversifies our builders for homeboard points and 24/23 lets us escape with a 5 even though escaping is of least priority because we are trailing. Our game plan is rather attacking or priming. If we get hit we will probably be able to enter and to establish an anchor.

Slotting is “split and slot”, which in general too dangerous. It tries to achieve too many goals at the same time.

I did a rollout for this match score because XG showed me very often that playing 13/8 is best, obviously because it is safer. The result was 0.005 difference. Nothing! Conclusion: Is my above consideration is worthless? I do not think so. Whatever you play you should have your reason for it. It may be right, wrong or like in this case borderline but when you have a reason you have best chances to pick the right play.

So my reason helped me to pick a play that is best and even though I did not expect 13/8 to be borderline. My further policy for situations like this is as follows: When the opponent has split checkers in my homeboard, I rather play 13/8 because of the increased number of hits. When I am up in the race I would maybe opt for the safe play too.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-DA--fC---b-d-bAA--:0:0:-1:22:4:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout124/16* eq: +0.711
Player:
Opponent:
66.23% (G:14.23% B:0.68%)
33.77% (G:7.11% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.702...+0.721) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
2.Rollout113/9(2)eq: +0.575 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
62.33% (G:16.39% B:0.68%)
37.67% (G:9.25% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.564...+0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
3.Rollout16/2*(2) eq: +0.565 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
60.56% (G:17.75% B:0.71%)
39.44% (G:8.71% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.556...+0.573) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/16*.

24/16* gains 24 pips (16 plus the 8 I just rolled) and escapes my last checker with tempo giving me a nice advantage unless they return hit. This is better than anything else I can do.



USBGF Members: 52 b/20 22/20
Neil Kazaross: 53 16/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=------E-D---fC---c-dBb-A--:0:0:1:51:4:0:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:52:4:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout124/22 13/8eq: -0.363
Player:
Opponent:
43.92% (G:11.58% B:0.69%)
56.08% (G:17.92% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.373...-0.353) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.440 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
42.48% (G:12.46% B:0.77%)
57.52% (G:19.02% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.451...-0.428) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 24/22 13/8
[ 5] 13/11 13/8
[ 1] 13/8 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 13/8

For money the correct reply is to split 24/22 13/8. Neil has a stripped 8 point, so if he attacks from that point he leaves a blot.

At this score we have no need for anything more aggressive.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/22 13/8

This play brings improvement on both sides and there are no indications against the split like us trailing in the race or Neil having a strong attack on our blots in his homeboard.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-d-bA-A-:0:0:-1:65:4:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout124/13eq: +0.307
Player:
Opponent:
56.24% (G:12.44% B:0.41%)
43.76% (G:10.24% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.297...+0.317) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 13/8eq: +0.285 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
55.15% (G:13.81% B:0.57%)
44.85% (G:11.22% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.275...+0.295) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/13.

I could consider stopping on the 18 point and bringing down a 5, but they have four checkers on their 8 point and that play diversifies many rolls for them. Simply running looks better.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-D---fD---b-d-bA-A-:0:0:1:41:4:0:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBCCC-------b--bcc--bb--:1:-1:1:44:2:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout16/2 4/Off(3)eq: +1.288
Player:
Opponent:
93.96% (G:42.87% B:0.11%)
6.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.286...+1.291) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout16/2(3) 5/1eq: +1.211 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
97.40% (G:27.00% B:0.02%)
2.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.210...+1.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74626554
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 6/2 4/0(3)
[ 4] 6/2(3) 5/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/2 4/0(3)

Neil needs 12 crossovers to take off a checker. If we play 6/2 4/Off(3) we will have 12 checkers remaining so as it will be close, with us having a good chance to win a Gammon.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 6/2 4/0(3)

6/2(3) 5/1 is a little safer but the recommended play wins more gammons. Do the gammons outweigh the additional losses? Let´s ask Neil and in particular his ingenious numbers. According to Neil´s numbers every point that the leader leads brings additional 5% of match equity when the trailer is at 11-away. Winning a single game brings us to 4:0 and to a match equity of 50& + 4×5% = 70%. A gammon brings us to 50% + 6×5% = 80% whereas a loss of two points brings us to even and to 50% match equity. Compared to a single win a gammon brings us 10% whereas a loss costs us 20%. The “gammon price” is ½. I.e. we are willing to pay half a win in order to win one gammon. In other words: Does the recommended play bring double as many additional gammons than additional losses?

This is hard to calculate but we can estimate by doing the gammon count: Neil has minimum 37 pips to go in order to bear off the first checker. This equals to about 5 rolls with 8.something being the average roll. When we will need about the same number of rolls to bear all checkers off when Neil starts to run it will be a close call for gammon. Normally and at a normal money game gammon price of ½ it is worth taking an additional risk in the bearoff in order to safe one roll when it is or when it becomes a close call for gammon. When we have high or hardly chances on a gammon anyway we should opt for the safer play.

After the recommended play we have still 12 checkers and about 7-8 rolls to bear off. Neil normally will not enter immediately. He will waste about maybe two rolls in the average to enter our homeboard. So gammon will be a close call what makes it worth to take some chances in order to safe one or even two rolls by bearing off three checkers.



Neil Kazaross: 11 no play
USBGF Members: 53 6/3 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCCC-C--------b--bcc--bb--:1:-1:-1:62:2:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/19 8/6eq: -1.308
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.309...-1.307) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/19 7/5eq: -1.316 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.88% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.317...-1.315) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/19 8/6.

There’s no need for me to yet waste pips in this gammon save race so B/19 8/6 crossing over to my 6 point.



USBGF Members: 63 5/0 3/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 25
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CCB-Ba-------b--acd--bb--:1:-1:-1:22:2:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout119/17 11/9 8/6 7/5eq: -1.295
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:28.76% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.295...-1.294) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10.1 seconds
2.Rollout111/9 8/6 7/5(2)eq: -1.296 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:28.94% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.297...-1.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.8 seconds
3.Rollout119/17 8/6 7/5(2)eq: -1.301 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:29.41% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.302...-1.301) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7.9 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 19/17 11/9 8/6 7/5.

Three of my deuces seem clear and crossover: 19/17 8/6 7/5. Now looking at that position I have six crossovers to bring them in and need a seventh to bearoff a checker. Therefore, assuming they don’t miss and no one rolls a useful double, I can afford one miss. If I again play 7/5 I cross over but leave myself an abundance of needed 5’s to cross over. Perhaps it is better to play 11/9 and not waste another pip. The pip I “wasted” with 7/5 filled a gap to crossover so it isn’t a waste. I can’t decide so I flipped a coin and it came up 11/9.



USBGF Members: 42 5/1 2/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 96
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 19
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBB-A--a-----a-a-bea-bb--:1:-1:-1:64:2:0:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout117/13 11/5eq: -1.086
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:8.39% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.086...-1.086) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1.6 seconds
2.Rollout117/7eq: -1.094 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:9.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.094...-1.093) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.6 seconds
3.Rollout117/11 9/5eq: -1.095 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:9.26% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.095...-1.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.3 seconds
4.Rollout111/5 9/5eq: -1.096 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:9.33% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.096...-1.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.4 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85250720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 17/13 11/5.

Several plays are possible and should be close. Their missing 4 caused them to waste a turn and my 64 is a large roll so I should be a big favorite to save this gammon. I can make two crossovers and waste two pips or make one crossover and waste one pip.

If I go for the one cross over play of 17/13 11/5, I leave myself with five short crossovers and can bearoff a checker much of the time with my sixth crossover, i.e. in three rolls, which should be adequate even if they roll a double. This looks to be slightly better than leaving myself long crossover with another play or two and perhaps getting hurt by rolling tiny three times in a row.

It hardly matters, but I will go with 17/13 11/5.



USBGF Members: 31 3/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 61 13/6
USBGF Members: 51 5/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 44 9/5 7/3(2) 6/2
USBGF Members: 52 3/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 41

USBGF Members win two points and leads 7-away/11-away.



Neil Kazaross: 42 8/4 6/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:52:4:0:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 73
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBB-BBD-BA----b--bcc--bb--:1:-1:1:33:2:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout19/3 8/5 6/3eq: +1.416
Player:
Opponent:
97.37% (G:47.03% B:0.08%)
2.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.414...+1.419) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout18/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +1.399 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
97.61% (G:44.77% B:0.07%)
2.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.396...+1.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74626554
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 9/3 8/5 6/3
[ 1] 9/3 6/3(2)
[ 1] 8/5(2) 6/3(2)


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 9/3 8/5 6/3

Nothing safer or more gammonish.



USBGF Members: 11 8/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBCCC-------b--bcc--bb--:1:-1:1:44:2:0:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 87
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBB-ACC-C-----b--bccA-bb--:1:-1:1:21:2:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout18/6 5/4eq: +0.706
Player:
Opponent:
78.79% (G:24.60% B:0.11%)
21.21% (G:1.99% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.703...+0.710) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 4/3eq: +0.695 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
78.74% (G:22.82% B:0.08%)
21.26% (G:1.48% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.692...+0.699) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout16/4 5/4eq: +0.668 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
77.72% (G:23.59% B:0.13%)
22.28% (G:2.18% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.664...+0.671) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 02 seconds
4.Rollout18/7 6/4eq: +0.667 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
77.02% (G:26.33% B:0.13%)
22.98% (G:2.98% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.663...+0.670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74626554
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 8/6 5/4
[10] 8/7 6/4
[ 8] 6/4 5/4
[ 3] 5/3 4/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/6 5/4

We could switch points 5/3 4/3 to give ourselves more diversified builders aimed at the open 4 point. This would benefit us on our next turn if we survive Neil’s next roll. Unfortunately, 5/3 4/3 removes the duplication of 3’s that just playing 8/6 5/4 gives us. My rule of thumb is go with the immediate benefit, and making the 4 point benefits us sooner, by giving Neil fewer hitting numbers from the bar. We may never make the remaining point but our game plan is simply to escape the last checker not close our board.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/6 5/4

The 4 point is better than the 3 point in this case. We have still a checker in Neil´s homeboard and therefore we want to block his last checker better in case he enters. Furthermore we duplicate the Neil´s 3s which he needs to enter and to hit whereas he cannot make use of the 4 unless we turn it into a good number for him by playing 5/3 4/3.



Neil Kazaross: 42 no play
USBGF Members: 65 20/9
Neil Kazaross: 44 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 73
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBB-BBD-BA----b--bcc--bb--:1:-1:1:33:2:0:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB-aCB-BAAA--b--bccA-bb--:1:-1:1:33:2:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.xgRollout110/4* 9/6 4/1eq: +0.243
Player:
Opponent:
64.74% (G:17.39% B:0.18%)
35.26% (G:6.28% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.239...+0.247) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 16 seconds
2.playedRollout111/8 10/4* 9/6eq: +0.051 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
57.93% (G:15.83% B:0.13%)
42.07% (G:9.52% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.047...+0.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout111/8 10/4* 4/1eq: +0.043 (-0.200)
Player:
Opponent:
57.99% (G:14.48% B:0.17%)
42.01% (G:8.58% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.038...+0.048) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 11/8 10/4* 9/6
[12] 10/4*/1 9/6
[ 6] 11/8 10/4*/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/8 10/4* 9/6

Playing passively and letting Neil attack here is too dangerous. We have to attack 10/4*, then 9/6. We do not want to sacrifice our 8 point so let’s play 11/8.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 10/4*/1 9/6

Hitting is compulsory. No need to leave a direct shot inside for later cover, since we will be in perfect shape if Neil only cannot hit one of our blots. 9/3 is perfectly safe and costs nothing (no advantage when we do not get hit) compared to 10/7 because we have in both cases three builders for or homeboard. In addition after 10/7 4s are duplicated and we should use it to escape (after having payed 9/3) rather than making a homeboard point or the bar point.



Neil Kazaross: 66 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 87
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBB-ACC-C-----b--bccA-bb--:1:-1:1:21:2:0:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB-aCB-BAAA--b--bccA-bb--:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.19% (G:21.42% B:0.21%) 66.36% (G:22.40% B:0.20%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.81% (G:10.04% B:0.76%) 33.64% (G:10.34% B:0.79%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.433 +0.879
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.508 (-0.118)±0.007 (+0.501..+0.514)
played Double/Take:+0.626±0.010 (+0.616..+0.635)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.374)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 52 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Double
[13] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

If we look at this position we do indeed have Race (10% race lead roughly), a better position, threats and we will win more than 20% Gammons. So it’s a very clear double for money.

This score should make us slightly conservative but only slightly.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: Double

The position is volatile. We have threats (point on Neil’s checker or hit loose and fan). We lose or market after the execution of the threats and we’re still favourite before the opponent rolls, when we do not execute the threats. This is a general rule for cube handling in volatile situations.

This position fits perfectly: We will hit loose (no miss) if we cannot point on Neil’s checker and he will only become a favourite after he hits back.

The match score does not alter our cube decision. We are up only two points. It is a big double and we can make use of all for possible points or even of possible eight points in case of a redouble.


Neil Kazaross takes.

Fortunately my last roll entered and cleaned up my blots making this a take for me. Of course I have the worst of this tactical situation. 14 of their rolls make a 5 point board on my head and every roll hits me. But I have plenty of chances as they have a checker still in my homeboard behind 4 of my points. Let’s say they hit me loose, and I don’t roll a 4. I may enter with a 3 and hit them with 31, 32, 33,and 36 and if they cannot hit back they’ll often face a four cube due to so many blots and my gammon chances.

If all goes terribly for me and I get closed out and they run their back checker home, I have only seven checkers in my outfield to bring in and should be a slight fave to save the gammon. Their 66 is a poor roll for them as it misplaces some forward checkers. Sometimes, as they progress towards closing me out, they may need to also use a 4 or 5 to step out as well as hit me. Every turn that checker stays in my board gives me chances to enter with a joker and gives them chances to roll something badly blocked.

All in all, a good attacking double by them in a situation where a ton of equity will swing on the next sequences of rolls. But I have a clear take, especially trailing in the match where I can recube to four aggressively if I can withstand their assault and be entered and on roll with my own attacking threats.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB-aCB-BAAA--b--bccA-bb--:1:-1:1:33:2:0:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 115
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB--CB-B--b-Bb--bcbBaba--:0:0:1:43:2:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout18/4 6/3eq: -0.317
Player:
Opponent:
41.04% (G:3.23% B:0.05%)
58.96% (G:3.44% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.320...-0.314) - [99.8%]
Duration: 6 hours 23 minutes
2.Rollout18/5 8/4eq: -0.323 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
40.87% (G:3.02% B:0.06%)
59.13% (G:2.96% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.326...-0.320) - [0.2%]
Duration: 6 hours 00 minute
3.playedRollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.330 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
40.39% (G:2.74% B:0.04%)
59.61% (G:2.34% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.333...-0.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 56 minutes
4.Rollout213/10 8/4eq: -0.344 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
40.05% (G:4.06% B:0.09%)
59.95% (G:2.98% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.351...-0.337) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 26 seconds
5.Rollout28/4 5/2eq: -0.356 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
39.91% (G:2.34% B:0.04%)
60.09% (G:3.39% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.363...-0.349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
6.Rollout28/1eq: -0.369 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
39.33% (G:2.11% B:0.04%)
60.67% (G:3.38% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.377...-0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
7.Rollout213/6eq: -0.375 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
39.29% (G:3.67% B:0.07%)
60.71% (G:3.14% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.382...-0.368) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 53 seconds
8.Rollout213/9 8/5eq: -0.382 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
39.15% (G:3.38% B:0.09%)
60.85% (G:3.20% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.390...-0.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 02 seconds
9.Rollout26/3 6/2eq: -0.384 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
38.89% (G:1.99% B:0.03%)
61.11% (G:3.83% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.391...-0.377) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
10.Rollout26/3 5/1eq: -0.399 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
38.59% (G:2.48% B:0.03%)
61.41% (G:4.11% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.407...-0.391) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
11.Rollout28/5 6/2eq: -0.408 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
38.46% (G:2.16% B:0.04%)
61.54% (G:4.18% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.416...-0.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 59 seconds
12.Rollout213/9 6/3eq: -0.430 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
37.59% (G:4.72% B:0.21%)
62.41% (G:4.35% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.437...-0.422) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 23 seconds
13.Rollout213/9 5/2eq: -0.434 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
37.51% (G:3.09% B:0.06%)
62.49% (G:3.62% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.441...-0.426) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 24 seconds
14.Rollout220/13eq: -0.439 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:
37.58% (G:4.88% B:0.08%)
62.42% (G:7.12% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.446...-0.432) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 39 seconds
15.Rollout213/10 5/1eq: -0.444 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:
37.17% (G:2.84% B:0.06%)
62.83% (G:3.54% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.451...-0.437) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 13/10 13/9
[12] 20/13
[ 7] 8/5 8/4
[ 3] 13/10 8/4
[ 2] 8/4 5/2
[ 2] 13/6
[ 1] 8/4 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 8/4

It might look tempting to break the 20 point anchor with 20/13 but we would only be three pips ahead in the race after the roll. Neil could attack and even if we are missed, then Neil would improve his board and attack next turn.

The better course of action is to play 8/5 8/4, slotting the next point in our board and retaining our midpoint.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/10 13/9

Choosing the least evil. The problem with 20/13 is that we might not be able to exit our second checker next roll, even though Neil has not too many rolls with which he should hit this roll. 8/5 8/4 will cause problems next roll with almost any 1 or 2.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB--CB-BAAb--b--bcbBaba--:0:0:-1:62:2:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout114/6eq: +0.307
Player:
Opponent:
59.09% (G:2.49% B:0.12%)
40.91% (G:3.33% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.299...+0.315) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout114/8 4/2eq: +0.286 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
58.34% (G:2.42% B:0.11%)
41.66% (G:3.13% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.279...+0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 37 seconds
3.Rollout18/6 8/2eq: +0.243 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
56.72% (G:2.34% B:0.10%)
43.28% (G:3.10% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.235...+0.250) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout114/12 14/8eq: +0.237 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
57.36% (G:2.59% B:0.13%)
42.64% (G:4.72% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.230...+0.245) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/6.

I have a nice natural smooth play that heads for home and leaves only a hitting 54 as other 9’s are blocked. Alternatives are ugly and/or break my 8 point which I don’t want to do. I’ll risk the 54 joker. After playing 14/8, 8/6 is more smooth and better long term than 4/2, gapping my 4 point.



USBGF Members: 54 20/11*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 114
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBB--CB-BAAA--b--bccAaba--:0:0:-1:42:2:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 4/2eq: -0.623
Player:
Opponent:
33.79% (G:10.28% B:0.76%)
66.21% (G:22.50% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.632...-0.614) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 6/4eq: -0.717 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
32.72% (G:9.53% B:0.71%)
67.28% (G:23.04% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.728...-0.706) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 4/2.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB-aCB-BAAA--b--bccA-bb--:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB--BBaB--a-Bb--bcbBbb--A:0:0:1:55:2:0:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout1Bar/15 20/15(2)eq: +0.183
Player:
Opponent:
54.41% (G:5.75% B:0.05%)
45.59% (G:2.31% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.175...+0.190) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/5eq: -0.153 (-0.336)
Player:
Opponent:
44.91% (G:6.68% B:0.06%)
55.09% (G:3.92% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.160...-0.146) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/15 8/3(2)eq: -0.235 (-0.418)
Player:
Opponent:
42.13% (G:11.73% B:0.16%)
57.87% (G:5.83% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.243...-0.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] b/5
[20] b/15 20/15(2)
[ 1] b/15 8/3(2)
[ 1] b/20 13/3 8/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/15 20/15(2)

We have just rolled a great number that gets us off the bar and gives us the chance to get out of our 20 point holding game.

We will only be up in the race by two pips but consider the number of Neil’s rolls that leave us a shots next roll:

  • Triple shot: 11
  • Double shot: 21, 32, 61, 62, 66
  • Single shot: 52, 63, 53, 65, 33

There are 19 rolls that leave a shot and 9 of those rolls leave a double shot and one leaves a triple shot. We now have good control of the outfield.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/15 20/15(2)

We should avoid leaving a shot. b/5 keeps maximum contact.

Although we are trailing slightly we should reject b/5 since our timing is too bad. Waiting on the 20 point will often force us to leave the anchor with one checker or to bury checkers deep on or homeboard.

And of course we still have nice shot chances after the recommended play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 115
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB--CBaB--a-Bb--bcbBbb---:0:0:-1:42:2:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout118/14 4/2eq: +0.269
Player:
Opponent:
57.51% (G:2.75% B:0.11%)
42.49% (G:3.03% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.261...+0.276) - [99.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.Rollout118/14 3/1eq: +0.254 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
57.12% (G:2.93% B:0.11%)
42.88% (G:3.26% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.247...+0.261) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/14 4/2.

I am delighted to be able to safe up both blots with 18/14 and then my best 2 should be 4/2 staying off my ace point and looking a bit easier to clean up.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 115
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB--CB-B--b-Bb--bcbBaba--:0:0:1:43:2:0:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB--ABbC-A--Bb--bcbBbb---:0:0:1:21:2:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout110/8 5/4eq: -0.324
Player:
Opponent:
41.37% (G:4.66% B:0.11%)
58.63% (G:6.99% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.327...-0.320) - [92.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 29 minutes
2.Rollout110/8 6/5eq: -0.327 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
41.23% (G:4.61% B:0.11%)
58.77% (G:6.91% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.330...-0.324) - [8.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 13 minutes
3.playedRollout28/5eq: -0.373 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
39.47% (G:7.69% B:0.14%)
60.53% (G:7.66% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.381...-0.366) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/5
[10] 10/8 6/5
[ 5] 10/8 5/4
[ 1] 13/10


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 10/8 6/5

Neil has a strong board, so we should reject 8/5, which although it gives us a 4 point board, is bad if Neil hits us.

So we have to play 10/8 then decide on the 1. My initial thought was 6/5 as 2’s are blocked from our 20 point anchor. It will be close with 5/4 so let’s just play 6/5.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 10/8 5/4

For me this is a very difficult position, and over the board I would easily have played 8/5 because we hold an anchor and with so much contact it is anyhow not going to be a pure race for many rolls. So my conclusion was that a good position and a strong homeboard are of high importance. Of course they are, but getting hit is expensive too.

8/5 in fact is better (per XG++) when Neil´s two checkers from the 22 point are placed as spares on 20 point (Neil´s 6 point) although we will be four pips up before our roll. 8/5 is also better too if Neil´s two checkers from the 22 point are placed on the 24 point (his ace point) what makes him trailing by 6 pips. Maybe this allows us to conclude that the mutual board strength is of higher importance than the race in this case and that the risk of getting hit is slightly higher than the positional disadvantage resulting out of the bad distribution after 10/8 5/4 at the given strength of Neil´s board.

At this moment I have no idea how to better get these positions right over the board. We have to accept that backgammon very often depends on guesses and experience.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 120
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB--BBbB-A--Bb--bcbBbb---:0:0:-1:31:2:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout118/15* 15/14eq: +0.418
Player:
Opponent:
62.65% (G:9.05% B:0.38%)
37.35% (G:11.68% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.408...+0.427) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout118/15* 7/6eq: +0.303 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
59.87% (G:10.32% B:0.53%)
40.13% (G:14.71% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.293...+0.314) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout17/3eq: +0.215 (-0.203)
Player:
Opponent:
55.66% (G:7.17% B:0.21%)
44.34% (G:6.40% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.207...+0.223) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/15*/14.

This is a different situation from last turn. I now have a rather good containment structure and a 3 point board, and they have a 4 point board which can turn things around quickly if they can return hit and I dance.

If I hit, I play 18/15*/14. Let’s count shots. 16, 26, 56, 51, 52 and 21 hit me. 22 and 11 double hit me. This is only 14 rolls. They miss me with 22 rolls, 9 of which dance. Some of their missing rolls enter poorly and force them to break something. Looking at all their missing rolls, it seems that I can sometimes cube after some of them. If they return hit, they’ll have three checkers somewhat contained in my board. I like the odds of hitting and don’t care to play safely with 7/3.

18/15*/14 looks well worth the risk.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB--BBaB--a-Bb--bcbBbb--A:0:0:1:55:2:0:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-07-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB---BbC--B-Bb--bccBba---:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout111/10 11/5eq: -0.360
Player:
Opponent:
40.18% (G:7.87% B:0.22%)
59.82% (G:8.67% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.368...-0.352) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
2.Rollout111/4eq: -0.382 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
39.58% (G:7.39% B:0.19%)
60.42% (G:8.66% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.390...-0.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
3.Rollout113/6eq: -0.383 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
38.80% (G:6.38% B:0.13%)
61.20% (G:5.95% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.390...-0.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
4.Rollout111/5 6/5eq: -0.392 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
39.29% (G:7.00% B:0.15%)
60.71% (G:8.54% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.400...-0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 11/10 11/5
[ 1] 8/1
[ 1] 13/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/10 11/5

13/6 diversifies Neil’s good numbers and 8/1 completely strips us and just looks ugly.

That leaves 11/10 11/5 which starts the 5 point and as a bonus duplicates 3’s to hit and cover Neil’s 3 point – this is the play I would make.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB--ABbC-A--Bb--bccBba---:0:0:-1:21:2:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout16/3eq: +0.254
Player:
Opponent:
56.53% (G:6.69% B:0.23%)
43.47% (G:5.43% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.246...+0.262) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.xgRollout118/15* eq: +0.232 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
57.89% (G:12.47% B:0.78%)
42.11% (G:17.95% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.221...+0.243) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13932353
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3.

If I hit them, I leave three blots and while 3’s are duped, they can also hit me with 6’s and 1’s. I suspect this is too much and will cautiously play 6/3.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BB--ABbC-A--Bb--bcbBbb---:0:0:1:21:2:0:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10