USBGF OLM 2018-08-13

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--a-E-CA--dD-----caAbbA-:0:0:1:41:2:3:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgXG Roller++21/20* 13/9eq: +0.363
Player:
Opponent:
58.63% (G:17.26% B:1.06%)
41.37% (G:11.48% B:0.45%)
2.playedXG Roller++24/20* 21/20eq: +0.303 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
56.98% (G:15.71% B:0.74%)
43.02% (G:9.96% B:0.31%)
3.XG Roller++21/20* 8/4* eq: +0.248 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
55.55% (G:19.12% B:1.62%)
44.45% (G:14.97% B:1.03%)
4.XG Roller++9/5 6/5eq: +0.233 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
56.11% (G:17.28% B:1.14%)
43.89% (G:15.14% B:0.52%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/20* 21/20
[ 6] 21/20* 13/9
[ 2] 21/20* 8/4*
[ 1] 9/5 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 174
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab--a-E-CA--dD-----cB-bb--:0:0:-1:65:2:3:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/14eq: -0.525
Player:
Opponent:
38.40% (G:8.33% B:0.25%)
61.60% (G:19.11% B:1.10%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.537 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
37.92% (G:9.40% B:0.32%)
62.08% (G:20.25% B:1.52%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/20 24/18eq: -0.541 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
38.33% (G:8.69% B:0.27%)
61.67% (G:21.27% B:1.29%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/20 21/15eq: -0.543 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
38.33% (G:8.28% B:0.24%)
61.67% (G:19.49% B:1.13%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/14.

There are two plans here. 1) is to try to stay out of serious immediate trouble so that means B/14. 2) is to try to anchor so that means B/20 13/7. Usually when faced with these decisions I’ve tried to avoid immediate disasters, sometimes failing to make the best play.

B/14 duplicates 2’s and 9’s and leaves them quite a few non-constructive 1’s since they cannot play an ace from their two back points.

B/20 13/7 duplicates 2’s as well but leaves me far more vulnerable. However, if I get pointed on and roll a 6 from the bar, that 6, assuming I enter, can make my bar point. (After, B/14 the 6 can safety 14/8.) However, if I get attacked and don’t respond well, I will be in real trouble and facing a cube.

I’ll follow my usual style here and wimp with B/14.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--a-E-CA-adD-----cB-bb--:0:0:1:53:2:3:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sun 8/19 400p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-08-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---b-d-ab-AA:0:0:1:51:2:3:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20 24/23eq: -0.363
Player:
Opponent:
42.92% (G:10.68% B:0.58%)
57.08% (G:22.14% B:1.02%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/20 6/5eq: -0.365 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
43.30% (G:10.95% B:0.58%)
56.70% (G:23.79% B:1.87%)
3.xgXG Roller++Bar/24 13/8eq: -0.374 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
41.96% (G:11.35% B:0.51%)
58.04% (G:19.38% B:1.25%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/20 9/8eq: -0.393 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
41.97% (G:9.82% B:0.44%)
58.03% (G:20.87% B:0.75%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] b/20 24/23
[10] b/24 13/8
[10] b/20 9/8
[ 7] b/20 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20 24/23

This is tricky. We do not want to enter on the 24 point as we would like to get an advanced anchor here. So, Bar/20 for the 5.

How do we play the 1? My five second answer would have been 24/23 but looking at it I really like 6/5 duplicating Neil’s 4’s. I would not argue with a partner in a consulting match, and here it would depend on my mood. I will go with Bar/20 24/23 as it was my gut instinct. This also works well as it freezes Neil’s striped 8 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---b-dAabA--:0:0:-1:61:2:3:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedXG Roller++8/2* 6/5* eq: +0.037
Player:
Opponent:
50.63% (G:20.14% B:1.05%)
49.37% (G:16.43% B:1.56%)
2.XG Roller++13/7 6/5* eq: -0.008 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
49.73% (G:17.26% B:0.85%)
50.27% (G:15.62% B:1.29%)
3.XG Roller++24/18 4/3eq: -0.031 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
49.22% (G:13.11% B:0.56%)
50.78% (G:13.61% B:0.47%)
4.XG Roller++13/6eq: -0.041 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
48.05% (G:15.14% B:0.52%)
51.95% (G:13.14% B:0.66%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2* 6/5*.

This is a poor but interesting roll. I think I am supposed to attack and use my stronger board and take advantage of the fact that they have no new points yet. Playing safe with something like 24/18 4/3 seems rather passive.

So I hit 6/5*, and there’s two choices for my 6. 13/7 brings down a builder and the wild 8/2* which can lead to a quick win or to me hoping to make a backgame. Looking at all their replies I slightly prefer 8/2*. They miss with 8 rolls and then I am doing very well. They double hit me with 10 rolls and then I will need to enter and establish a second anchor quickly. Quite a few of their rolls hit me with one checker but dance with the other and then I can hope to enter and make a 3 point board and then I will be in OK shape.

In for a penny, in for a pound.



USBGF Members: 41 b/24 b/21*
Neil Kazaross: 64 b/21 8/2


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--a-E-CA--dD-----caAbbA-:0:0:1:41:2:3:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sat 8/18 515p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-08-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:2:3:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedXG Roller++24/21 13/9eq: -0.206
Player:
Opponent:
45.80% (G:11.68% B:0.52%)
54.20% (G:17.23% B:0.83%)
2.xgXG Roller++13/10 13/9eq: -0.207 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
45.47% (G:12.94% B:0.55%)
54.53% (G:17.39% B:1.21%)
3.XG Roller++24/20 13/10eq: -0.221 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
45.53% (G:11.60% B:0.57%)
54.47% (G:17.17% B:0.82%)
4.XG Roller++24/21 24/20eq: -0.221 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
45.71% (G:10.86% B:0.54%)
54.29% (G:17.43% B:0.60%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 24/21 13/9
[ 9] 13/10 13/9
[ 7] 24/20 13/10
[ 1] 24/21 24/20


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

For Money, DMP, Gammon Save and Gammon Go, the correct reply after 53 8/3 6/3 then 43 is 13/10 13/9. For money it is right by 2 or 3 millipoints. But that is if you are using Jacoby. In New Zealand, Jacoby is not used for money play, so you will find out that the play at the top by 2 millipoints becomes 24/21 13/9. In XG, uncheck Jacoby and you will see this, and you will see that I did the rollouts.

Any rolls that are separated by only 2 or 3 millipoints are effectively equal. I would play 13/10 13/9 here, especially as we want to increase the volatility against Neil. I suspect at this score, that 24/21 13/9 may be right by a couple of millipoints, but even if you showed me the rollout and it was correct, I would still bring 2 checkers down from the midpoint. I am more used to playing this as a response and as an opening roll.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:-1:63:2:3:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedXG Roller++13/4* eq: +0.134
Player:
Opponent:
52.25% (G:17.72% B:0.92%)
47.75% (G:13.15% B:0.74%)
2.XG Roller++24/15eq: +0.014 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
50.58% (G:12.92% B:0.53%)
49.42% (G:13.40% B:0.50%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/4*.

I am happy to attack 13/4* just like I would after an opening 43 24/21 13/9 play. In comparison to the opening position, a 33 response for them becomes awful rather than a joker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---b-d-ab-AA:0:0:1:51:2:3:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 54
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 39
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABDC-------------bbdcca-:1:-1:1:21:2:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout13/Offeq: +0.820
Player:
Opponent:
91.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.820...+0.821) - [99.9%]
Duration: 20.9 seconds
2.Rollout14/3 2/Offeq: +0.819 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
91.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.818...+0.819) - [0.1%]
Duration: 20.3 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 3/0
[ 7] 4/3 2/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 3/0

After removing a checker with 2/off, we should play 3/2 to maximize the number of points our checkers are on. Another way to put this is 3/off.

Over the board, I would take a checker off the 2 point then look at the position, then decide what to do next.



Neil Kazaross: 44 4/0(4)
USBGF Members: 62 5/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 52 5/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 31 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 62 5/0 4/2
Neil Kazaross: 61 6/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 65 5/0 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 33 3/0(3) 2/0
USBGF Members: 63


Neil Kazaross wins two points and now leads 8-away/9-away.



Neil Kazaross: 53 8/3 6/3


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:2:3:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 67
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 48
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCEC---a---------bbccd--:1:-1:1:21:2:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.Rollout12/1 2/Offeq: +0.821
Player:
Opponent:
92.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
7.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.821...+0.821) - [84.4%]
Duration: 5 minutes 37 seconds
2.playedRollout13/Offeq: +0.821 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
92.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
7.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.820...+0.821) - [14.6%]
Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout24/3 2/Offeq: +0.820 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
91.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.819...+0.821) - [1.1%]
Duration: 53.3 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69054464
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69054464
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 3/0
[13] 4/3 2/0
[ 7] 2/1 2/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 2/1 2/0

First we play 2/0 then look at how best to play the 1. If we play 2/1 then we have a gap on the 2 point but any 2 can be played 4/2, so this is the correct move. I know this because years ago I read an article by Kit Woolsey called ‘The Racers Edge’. That article covers issues like this and is easily found on the internet.

If the position was slightly different, and we moved one checker from the 4 point to the 3 point then 3/0 would be correct as 2’s are more profitably played 3/1 and would be less stacked.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 67
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 45
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBEC---a---------bbccd--:1:-1:-1:41:2:1:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout116/12 2/1eq: -0.895
Player:
Opponent:
4.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.896...-0.895) - [100.0%]
Duration: 49.0 seconds
2.Rollout116/11eq: -0.901 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
4.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.902...-0.900) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.3 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/12 2/1.

Often in a nearly hopeless race it can be slightly best to assume 66 is coming. So I’ll go with 16/12 2/1, which unstacks and diversifies.



USBGF Members: 42 4/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 53 12/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 54
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 39
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABDC-------------bbdcca-:1:-1:1:21:2:1:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CECBB---------bbbbcab--:1:-1:1:54:2:1:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout17/3 7/2eq: +0.166
Player:
Opponent:
63.20% (G:2.82% B:0.12%)
36.80% (G:2.74% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.162...+0.169) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout16/1* 5/1eq: +0.147 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
60.99% (G:3.55% B:0.03%)
39.01% (G:3.30% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.144...+0.150) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 7/3 7/2
[10] 6/1* 5/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/3 7/2

If we hit 6/1* 5/1, we get hit with any 6 plus 42. That is 13 rolls. If we play 7/3 7/2, we only get hit with 1’s or 11 rolls. The 2 rolls difference equals 5.6% increased chance of getting hit.

We would need to win a lot more gammons to justify the hit, and here hitting only wins 0.4% more gammons, so I will go with the fewest number of hits — 7/3 7/2.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 61
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aADECB----------bbbbcab--:1:-1:-1:65:2:1:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout18/3 8/2eq: -0.586
Player:
Opponent:
19.54% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
80.46% (G:1.96% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.588...-0.585) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds
2.xgRollout18/3 7/1eq: -0.595 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
19.39% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
80.61% (G:2.04% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.597...-0.593) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62384428
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 8/2.

I have to stay on the ace point of course, as there’s plenty of chances to hit next turn and possibly in subsequent rolls. So my 5 is played 8/3 and now I have two choices for the 6. I can keep the prime for this turn with 8/2 or slot my ace point with 7/1, breaking the prime. 7/1 is slightly better for the long term as I can usually make a closed board, but 8/2 is slightly better for next roll. Since much of my chances come from hitting next roll, I slightly prefer 8/2.



USBGF Members: 51 5/0 3/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 55
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aBCEBB-----------bbbcbc--:1:-1:-1:54:2:1:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout17/3 7/2eq: -0.835
Player:
Opponent:
7.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.19% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.837...-0.833) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 01 second
2.Rollout17/3 6/1eq: -0.853 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
7.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.69% (G:2.41% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.855...-0.851) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62384428
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/3 7/2.

I’ll keep a 5 prime and basically winning homeboard.



USBGF Members: 61 6/5 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 62 24/16


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 67
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 48
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCEC---a---------bbccd--:1:-1:1:21:2:1:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 102
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BCBBCBA------abbbcb-b--:1:-1:1:44:2:1:0:11:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout19/5 7/3 6/2(2)eq: +0.801
Player:
Opponent:
90.10% (G:2.70% B:0.02%)
9.90% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.798...+0.803) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout19/1* 5/1(2)eq: +0.689 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
85.02% (G:3.26% B:0.01%)
14.98% (G:0.65% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.686...+0.692) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 58 seconds
3.Rollout19/5 8/4 6/2(2)eq: +0.686 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
85.30% (G:2.63% B:0.03%)
14.70% (G:0.73% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.683...+0.688) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds
4.Rollout19/5 7/3(3)eq: +0.661 (-0.140)
Player:
Opponent:
84.01% (G:2.70% B:0.04%)
15.99% (G:0.65% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.658...+0.663) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds
5.Rollout18/4(2) 5/1*(2) eq: +0.644 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:
83.08% (G:3.27% B:0.02%)
16.92% (G:0.86% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.642...+0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 17 seconds
6.playedRollout19/5 8/4(2) 7/3eq: +0.637 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:
82.38% (G:4.20% B:0.05%)
17.62% (G:1.01% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.635...+0.639) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 9/5 8/4(2) 7/3
[ 6] 9/1* 5/1(2)
[ 5] 9/5 7/3(3)
[ 5] 9/5 7/3 6/2(2)
[ 1] 9/1* 7/3 5/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/5 7/3 6/2(2)

This is really hard. If we put Neil on the bar, we do not win that many gammons, so instead of putting Neil on the bar, we should be focusing on a play that maximizes our winning chances. That means leaving no direct shots and hopefully no indirect shots.

Plays like 6/2(2) 5/1*(2) and 9/1* 5/1(2) all leave either indirect shots or leave indirect shots after we roll doubles. This is the type of position I would spend time with over the board as it is worth it.

Eventually I hope I would find 9/5 7/3 6/2(2), which leaves no shots, has four builders aimed at Neil’s blot and handles doubles next roll.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 102
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CECBB--------abbbcb-b--:1:-1:-1:61:2:1:0:11:10
to play 61

1.Rollout19/3 7/6eq: -0.653
Player:
Opponent:
16.60% (G:0.92% B:0.03%)
83.40% (G:4.02% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.654...-0.653) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 37 seconds
2.playedRollout19/3 5/4eq: -0.657 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
16.94% (G:1.07% B:0.03%)
83.06% (G:5.15% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.658...-0.656) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 58 seconds
3.xgRollout29/3 8/7eq: -0.658 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
17.08% (G:1.14% B:0.04%)
82.92% (G:4.95% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.660...-0.656) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds
4.Rollout29/3 4/3eq: -0.671 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
16.55% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
83.45% (G:5.21% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.673...-0.669) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 28 seconds
5.Rollout29/2eq: -0.673 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
15.70% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
84.30% (G:5.59% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.675...-0.670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds
6.Rollout28/7 8/2eq: -0.676 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
15.72% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)
84.28% (G:5.49% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.678...-0.674) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
7.Rollout28/2 5/4eq: -0.677 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
15.81% (G:0.70% B:0.02%)
84.19% (G:6.04% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.679...-0.674) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds
8.Rollout28/2 7/6eq: -0.682 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
15.23% (G:0.77% B:0.02%)
84.77% (G:5.15% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.685...-0.680) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds
9.Rollout28/1eq: -0.687 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
15.57% (G:0.99% B:0.03%)
84.43% (G:6.18% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.690...-0.685) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds
10.Rollout29/3 2/1eq: -0.689 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
15.46% (G:1.29% B:0.05%)
84.54% (G:6.14% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.692...-0.686) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 18 seconds
11.Rollout27/6 7/1eq: -0.694 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
15.10% (G:0.87% B:0.03%)
84.90% (G:5.75% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.696...-0.691) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds
12.Rollout27/1 5/4eq: -0.707 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
15.10% (G:0.91% B:0.03%)
84.90% (G:7.26% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.710...-0.705) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 30 seconds
13.Rollout27/1 2/1eq: -0.708 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
15.14% (G:0.70% B:0.02%)
84.86% (G:7.16% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.710...-0.705) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
14.Rollout29/8 7/1eq: -0.714 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
14.57% (G:0.79% B:0.02%)
85.43% (G:6.78% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.717...-0.712) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds
15.Rollout28/2 4/3eq: -0.748 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
14.15% (G:0.86% B:0.03%)
85.85% (G:8.34% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.751...-0.745) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds
16.Rollout224/23 9/3eq: -0.759 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
12.34% (G:0.89% B:0.03%)
87.66% (G:4.44% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.761...-0.757) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds
17.Rollout29/3 6/5eq: -0.767 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
12.95% (G:0.89% B:0.03%)
87.05% (G:7.74% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.769...-0.764) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
18.Rollout224/23 8/2eq: -0.774 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
11.81% (G:0.65% B:0.02%)
88.19% (G:5.70% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.776...-0.771) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 20 seconds
19.Rollout28/2 6/5eq: -0.776 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:
12.66% (G:0.75% B:0.02%)
87.34% (G:8.27% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.778...-0.773) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds
20.Rollout27/1 4/3eq: -0.792 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:
12.91% (G:0.93% B:0.03%)
87.09% (G:10.05% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.795...-0.790) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
21.Rollout224/23 7/1eq: -0.795 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:
11.26% (G:0.81% B:0.03%)
88.74% (G:6.36% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.797...-0.792) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds
22.Rollout27/1 6/5eq: -0.797 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:
12.33% (G:0.86% B:0.02%)
87.67% (G:9.57% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.800...-0.794) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds
23.Rollout224/17eq: -0.890 (-0.236)
Player:
Opponent:
4.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.11% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.890...-0.889) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/3 5/4.

I have decent chances for a shot now and am miles behind in the race. I will rarely lose a gammon if I stay, so running is out of the question. I’ll retain my 5 prime with 9/3 5/4, although playing 7/6 for my ace is likely just as good.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-CECBB---------bbbbcab--:1:-1:1:54:2:1:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 124
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BB-CBB---dCa--b-cbb-A--:1:-1:1:62:2:1:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 6/4eq: -0.182
Player:
Opponent:
49.72% (G:18.73% B:0.48%)
50.28% (G:12.30% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.189...-0.174) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.224 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
48.79% (G:20.14% B:0.97%)
51.21% (G:15.88% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.232...-0.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 8/6eq: -0.259 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
47.08% (G:17.54% B:0.60%)
52.92% (G:12.43% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.266...-0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/7 6/4
[12] 13/5
[ 3] 13/7 8/6
[ 1] 13/11 13/7
[ 1] 13/11 7/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 6/4

After the roll we will be ahead by 23 pips — this suggests we should not be priming. Therefore, we do not want to slot 13/5. It is usually unwise to slot while you are split, and here we are split in the sense that we have an exposed single checker back in Neil’s home board. If we slot and Neil misses the slot, he can hit loose on our rearmost checker. So let’s not slot with 13/5.

The 6 has to be played 13/7, then we should play 6/4 keeping our broken 5 prime intact and exposing no further blots.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BC-BCB---dBa--b-cbb-A--:1:-1:-1:11:2:1:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout14/2*(2) eq: -0.019
Player:
Opponent:
43.07% (G:12.22% B:0.43%)
56.93% (G:19.47% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.022...-0.016) - [72.1%]
Duration: 5 hours 03 minutes
2.xgRollout16/2* eq: -0.020 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
44.89% (G:11.90% B:0.49%)
55.11% (G:24.71% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.024...-0.017) - [27.9%]
Duration: 5 hours 34 minutes
3.Rollout211/9 8/7(2)eq: -0.041 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
43.41% (G:9.63% B:0.42%)
56.59% (G:20.26% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.048...-0.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 4/2*(2).

I had to look at this position for quite a while, and I still find this to be a difficult decision. First of all, if I don’t hit, 11/9 8/7(2) seems superior to 11/8 6/5 since I make a solid 4 prime and leave only a 61 shot. Now to compare vs. the two hitting plays. I think with my 3 point board and being far behind in the race, I am supposed to hit.

6/2* seems to be the DMP play, since I retain some priming chances if I get return hit since I may anchor. But when I don’t anchor at a routine score with gammons counting, I may get blitzed, so at this score, I think 4/2*(2) while less constructive, is safer. I will respect their board and shift points.



USBGF Members: 55 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BC-BCB---dBa--b-cb--b-A:1:-1:-1:63:2:1:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/10 11/5eq: +0.162
Player:
Opponent:
47.60% (G:14.95% B:0.49%)
52.40% (G:15.19% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.155...+0.168) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: +0.105 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
46.64% (G:16.23% B:0.50%)
53.36% (G:19.76% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.098...+0.111) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 11/5.

If I can close more points inside my board, I may be able to win with a redouble. I also don’t want to leave too many shots and blots. My builder on the 11 point isn’t aiming at any inner board points. All this means that 11/5 13/10 is clear.



USBGF Members: 54 b/16


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 109
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BC-BCB---cB-aAb-cc--b--:1:-1:-1:32:2:1:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/10 6/4eq: -0.530
Player:
Opponent:
23.52% (G:3.51% B:0.12%)
76.48% (G:11.10% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.532...-0.528) - [96.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 5/3eq: -0.533 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
23.54% (G:3.70% B:0.14%)
76.46% (G:11.55% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.535...-0.531) - [3.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes
3.Rollout213/10 8/6eq: -0.538 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
22.74% (G:3.35% B:0.15%)
77.26% (G:10.11% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.542...-0.533) - [0.1%]
Duration: 23 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 6/4.

13/10 makes a point that occasionally can result in their blot not being able to move and 6/4 starts a good inside point.



USBGF Members: 52 16/9


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 102
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BC-BCBA--bB-b-b-bca-b--:1:-1:-1:42:2:1:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout18/6 8/4eq: -0.627
Player:
Opponent:
18.60% (G:1.49% B:0.04%)
81.40% (G:7.05% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.629...-0.626) - [95.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
2.playedRollout110/4eq: -0.629 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
18.64% (G:1.44% B:0.04%)
81.36% (G:7.23% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.631...-0.628) - [4.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 8/6eq: -0.632 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
20.28% (G:1.61% B:0.05%)
79.72% (G:11.42% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.633...-0.630) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
4.Rollout28/4 5/3eq: -0.636 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
18.75% (G:1.77% B:0.04%)
81.25% (G:7.87% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.640...-0.632) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 45 seconds
5.Rollout224/20 10/8eq: -0.647 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
20.19% (G:1.81% B:0.06%)
79.81% (G:12.85% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.651...-0.643) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 39 seconds
6.Rollout210/6 8/6eq: -0.651 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
17.99% (G:1.50% B:0.03%)
82.01% (G:8.00% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.655...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds
7.Rollout224/20 5/3eq: -0.652 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
20.55% (G:1.87% B:0.05%)
79.45% (G:13.89% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.656...-0.648) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 54 seconds
8.Rollout224/20 6/4eq: -0.661 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
19.89% (G:1.84% B:0.06%)
80.11% (G:13.64% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.666...-0.657) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 29 seconds
9.Rollout210/6 5/3eq: -0.662 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
18.15% (G:1.82% B:0.05%)
81.85% (G:9.06% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.666...-0.658) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 08 seconds
10.Rollout210/8 10/6eq: -0.663 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
17.68% (G:1.38% B:0.03%)
82.32% (G:8.46% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.667...-0.659) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4.

I don’t think that I am supposed to step up 24/20 so I will make my 4 pt and look around for a 2. Slotting my 3 pt is OK but not so easy to cover and perhaps I can hit a fly shot next turn.

I’ll go with 10/4, although 8/6 for my 2 has to be just as good.



USBGF Members: 65 13/8 13/7


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 115
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BC-BDCA--b--a-b-bcb-b--:1:-1:-1:41:2:1:0:11:10
to play 41

1.Rollout113/9 8/7eq: -0.699
Player:
Opponent:
15.27% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
84.73% (G:5.27% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.700...-0.697) - [63.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
2.Rollout110/6 8/7eq: -0.699 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
15.23% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
84.77% (G:5.17% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.701...-0.698) - [33.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.playedRollout113/12 13/9eq: -0.701 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
15.05% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
84.95% (G:5.24% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.702...-0.699) - [1.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
4.xgRollout113/12 10/6eq: -0.702 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
15.02% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
84.98% (G:5.28% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.703...-0.700) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
5.Rollout213/9 10/9eq: -0.703 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
15.19% (G:0.81% B:0.02%)
84.81% (G:5.68% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.707...-0.700) - [0.8%]
Duration: 9 minutes 35 seconds
6.Rollout213/12 8/4eq: -0.704 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
15.13% (G:0.81% B:0.03%)
84.87% (G:5.91% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.708...-0.700) - [0.3%]
Duration: 11 minutes 32 seconds
7.Rollout28/7 8/4eq: -0.705 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
15.23% (G:0.78% B:0.02%)
84.77% (G:5.96% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.708...-0.701) - [0.1%]
Duration: 10 minutes 43 seconds
8.Rollout213/9 5/4eq: -0.706 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
15.10% (G:0.78% B:0.02%)
84.90% (G:5.99% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.710...-0.703) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 47 seconds
9.Rollout28/3eq: -0.707 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
15.35% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
84.65% (G:6.20% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.710...-0.703) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
10.Rollout210/9 8/4eq: -0.709 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
15.19% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
84.81% (G:6.31% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.713...-0.706) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12 13/9.

Maybe I should have slotted my 3 point last turn or do it this turn, but I choose to retain the 8 point. Here 13/12 13/9 leaves me quite a few rolls to make that 3 point naturally. However, again I see little difference.



USBGF Members: 32 8/5 7/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BCBBCBA---a-aab-bcb-b--:1:-1:-1:53:2:1:0:11:10
to play 53

1.Rollout110/7 8/3eq: -0.828
Player:
Opponent:
10.23% (G:0.69% B:0.02%)
89.77% (G:6.64% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.830...-0.827) - [99.6%]
Duration: 44 minutes 20 seconds
2.playedRollout112/7 10/7eq: -0.831 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
10.01% (G:0.64% B:0.02%)
89.99% (G:6.53% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.832...-0.830) - [0.4%]
Duration: 43 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout212/9 8/3eq: -0.842 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
9.87% (G:0.81% B:0.03%)
90.13% (G:7.70% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.845...-0.838) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout29/6 8/3eq: -0.843 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
9.76% (G:0.81% B:0.04%)
90.24% (G:7.57% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.847...-0.840) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 40 seconds
5.Rollout212/7 9/6eq: -0.847 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
9.53% (G:0.77% B:0.03%)
90.47% (G:7.34% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.850...-0.844) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/7 10/7.

I am now primed, and it seems that my best hope is too make some sort of decent priming structure of my own. This is both to deter them from leaving a shot to walk their prime and also to deter them from hitting me loose on the ace point. So making my bar point seems best.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 102
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BCBBCBA------abbbcb-b--:1:-1:1:44:2:1:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-AB-DBB--aeC---a-cbb--A-:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60.06% (G:26.09% B:0.77%) 60.30% (G:26.33% B:0.83%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.94% (G:9.02% B:0.44%) 39.70% (G:9.34% B:0.49%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.375 +0.764
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+0.464±0.010 (+0.454..+0.474)
played Double/Take:+0.388 (-0.076)±0.016 (+0.372..+0.403)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.536)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] Double
[12] No Double


Neil Kazaross takes.

I have a very easy take here as if much of the time I am not hit, this is anyone’s game, and I will often be OK when hit.



USBGF Members: 31 24/23 6/3
Neil Kazaross: 53 14/11 13/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 124
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BB-CBB---dCa--b-cbb-A--:1:-1:1:62:2:1:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---eE-A-a-cbb--A-:0:0:1:66:2:1:0:11:10
to play 66

1.xgRollout113/1*(2) eq: +0.182
Player:
Opponent:
52.85% (G:25.02% B:0.91%)
47.15% (G:13.85% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.169...+0.194) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.playedRollout115/3* 13/7(2)eq: +0.119 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
53.26% (G:19.07% B:1.10%)
46.74% (G:14.38% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.107...+0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 15/3* 13/7(2)
[11] 13/1*(2)
[ 2] 13/7(2) 8/2(2)
[ 1] 15/9 13/7(3)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/1*(2)

My gut instinct is to hit here, and the best way to do that is to also make another inner board point. The almost reflex move here for me is 13/1*(2). After this roll we will have 10 checkers in the zone, and Neil will be on the bar.

This move stops Neil from extending his prime with all his rolls, with the exception of doubles


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-AB-DBB---eC---a-cbb--A-:0:0:-1:65:2:1:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout1Bar/14eq: -0.462
Player:
Opponent:
39.73% (G:9.04% B:0.42%)
60.27% (G:25.68% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.466...-0.458) - [93.2%]
Duration: 10 hours 43 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.466 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
39.54% (G:10.72% B:0.55%)
60.46% (G:29.96% B:2.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.471...-0.462) - [6.8%]
Duration: 10 hours 44 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/14.

b/14 hopes to get a checker away but leaves me with an inferior game. However, the big play b/20 13/7 just seems too loose as I am almost certainly getting hit and will need to respond well.

I’ll go with the prudent b/14.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-AB-DBB--aeC---a-cbb--A-:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---eE---b-cc---B-:0:0:1:63:2:1:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/15eq: -0.240
Player:
Opponent:
45.83% (G:10.96% B:0.50%)
54.17% (G:16.29% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.245...-0.235) - [99.8%]
Duration: 13 hours 13 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 13/10eq: -0.250 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
45.69% (G:13.14% B:0.73%)
54.31% (G:18.47% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.255...-0.245) - [0.2%]
Duration: 13 hours 00 minute
3.Rollout224/18 6/3* eq: -0.269 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
45.64% (G:12.60% B:0.68%)
54.36% (G:19.23% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.281...-0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
4.Rollout213/4eq: -0.294 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
44.00% (G:13.64% B:0.50%)
56.00% (G:17.10% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.305...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
5.Rollout224/21 24/18eq: -0.320 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
44.89% (G:12.00% B:0.65%)
55.11% (G:20.63% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.330...-0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
6.Rollout213/7 6/3* eq: -0.343 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
43.71% (G:13.52% B:0.69%)
56.29% (G:19.40% B:1.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.355...-0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 24/15
[ 9] 24/18 13/10
[ 5] 13/7 6/3*
[ 3] 13/4
[ 2] 24/18 6/3*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/15

We have two choices here either 24/15 or 24/18 13/10. For many years with an opening 63 I ran 24/15. Many people told me it was the incorrect thing to do, but then they made incorrect replies to that opening roll so it was worth it. That did not work terribly well with players of better ability, so in the last three years I have switched to 24/18 13/10. But I am very used to playing with 24/15, and very used to playing the game after making that opening roll, so here my natural inclination is to play 24/15 here.

Here I suspect it’ll be close either way, but if we are missed after 24/15, it will be hard for Neil to run a checker into the outfield as we will have a double shot.

So I could be wrong, but 24/15 is my play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---eE-A-b-cc---A-:0:0:-1:41:2:1:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/4 5/4eq: +0.030
Player:
Opponent:
49.07% (G:15.60% B:0.57%)
50.93% (G:13.43% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.018...+0.041) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
2.Rollout113/8eq: -0.028 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
48.21% (G:13.54% B:0.46%)
51.79% (G:13.48% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.039...-0.017) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 5/4.

Making my 4 point looks to be considerably superior to anything else that I can do with this roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---eE-A-a-cbb--A-:0:0:1:66:2:1:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---b-ca-b-bB:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 61.16% (G:39.42% B:0.44%) 61.56% (G:40.12% B:0.45%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 38.84% (G:11.40% B:0.82%) 38.44% (G:11.76% B:0.92%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.501 +1.088
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.679 (-0.185)±0.009 (+0.670..+0.688)
xg Double/Take:+0.864±0.013 (+0.851..+0.877)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.136)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] Pass
[ 9] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

Neil misses us with 52, 42, 64, 65, 54 and 55. 55 is a particularly bad roll for Neil. Neil also has one checker behind our 4 prime. We have no other blots, and we have our 13 and 11 points. Add this all up, and we should take here.


Neil Kazaross wins one point. The USBGF Members lead 9-away/10-away.



Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5 6/5
USBGF Members: 42 8/4 6/4

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--B-D-B---eE---b-db---B-:0:0:-1:21:2:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout124/23 13/11eq: +0.122
Player:
Opponent:
51.89% (G:16.56% B:0.73%)
48.11% (G:14.96% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.111...+0.133) - [97.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
2.playedRollout124/22 6/5eq: +0.105 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
51.74% (G:15.67% B:0.77%)
48.26% (G:14.89% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.093...+0.117) - [2.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 6/5.

I can do two decent things with the move. 6/5 creates a builder and 24/22 splits to an anchor I wouldn’t mind making and diversifies my back checkers. I slightly prefer this to 24/23 13/11 since with my 5 point made my builder on the 11 point is less valuable. However, I do risk getting badly hurt by 55 and 33.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---eE---b-cc---B-:0:0:1:63:2:1:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---c-ca-b-aB:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.24% (G:28.78% B:2.35%) 65.24% (G:29.57% B:2.60%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.76% (G:12.11% B:0.39%) 34.76% (G:12.30% B:0.42%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.494 +0.992
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.603 (-0.018)±0.004 (+0.598..+0.607)
xg Double/Take:+0.621±0.007 (+0.613..+0.628)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.379)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69245878
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 hours 56 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] No Double
[ 6] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

If we use O’Hagan’s Law, we have 20 rolls that hit and 44 which leaves us in a very good position. That’s 21 rolls but we need to subtract the 4 rolls that we stay on the bar giving us a net of 17 rolls. Note that O’Hagan’s Law is for an unlimited game. Here we are ahead by 2 points in the match, which may not seem like much but should make us more cautious. Balancing that is Neil is a Giant, so we need to take some chances.

I would say double but I could be wrong.



USBGF Members: 43 b/21


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---c-caAb-aA:0:0:-1:43:2:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout18/4* 4/1eq: +0.012
Player:
Opponent:
45.68% (G:24.27% B:0.40%)
54.32% (G:19.47% B:1.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.002...+0.022) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
2.Rollout18/5 8/4* eq: -0.081 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
44.83% (G:22.25% B:0.58%)
55.17% (G:24.98% B:3.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.091...-0.071) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4*/1.

A reasonable roll for me. As I have to leave at least one vulnerable blot anyhow, I might as well continue my blitz with 8/4*/1, leaving only 11 return shots.



USBGF Members: 61 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---b-ca-b-bB:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-07-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--BDBA---dD---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:2:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout124/20 8/5eq: +0.170
Player:
Opponent:
54.70% (G:17.82% B:0.82%)
45.30% (G:13.18% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.159...+0.180) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 8/5eq: +0.120 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
53.08% (G:18.57% B:0.77%)
46.92% (G:13.79% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.108...+0.131) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77936336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 24/20 8/5
[ 6] 13/9 8/5
[ 4] 24/21 6/2*
[ 2] 8/4 7/4
[ 2] 13/10 6/2*
[ 1] 24/20 13/10
[ 1] 24/21 24/20


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20 8/5

We need to safety the checker on our 8 point by playing 8/5, as Neil has a two point board now and rolls that hit. Then decide how to use the 4. 6/2* looks like overkill as Neil is not threatening much. 13/9 leaves Neil too many shots that hit and start to escape. That leaves 24/20 — which is good as Neil only has 9 checkers in the zone and making an anchor is always good. So my play would be 24/20 8/5.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--CDB----dD---c-dA-b-A-:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout123/17 13/8eq: -0.379
Player:
Opponent:
41.04% (G:8.93% B:0.37%)
58.96% (G:19.82% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.389...-0.369) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.Rollout123/17 6/1* eq: -0.413 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
40.05% (G:10.13% B:0.34%)
59.95% (G:21.73% B:1.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.423...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77936336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/17 13/8.

23/17 is certainly my 6, and then I clearly prefer 13/8 rather than the basically unneeded tempo hit 6/1*. 13/8 doesn’t strip the mid, and they aren’t threatening too much so even though 6/1* duplicates their 5’s to anchor or hit, I think it is wrong to risk losing 24 pips in the race if they roll an ace.



USBGF Members: 22 13/11(2) 6/4(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 142
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---d-dA-b-A-:0:0:-1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/5* 6/1* eq: -0.616
Player:
Opponent:
34.71% (G:12.10% B:0.38%)
65.29% (G:29.03% B:2.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.632...-0.600) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout113/5* eq: -0.792 (-0.176)
Player:
Opponent:
31.98% (G:9.67% B:0.48%)
68.02% (G:28.33% B:1.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.806...-0.778) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 77936336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5* 6/1*.

There’s no good play here, and any reasonable play has to start with 8/5*. After this I think 6/1* is best since it helps protect my blot on the 17 pt since now they cannot enter and hit with a 3. I have 10 checkers in the attack zone and may be able to turn this around quickly if missed. This also retains a spare on my mid point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---c-ca-b-aB:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---EBB---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:31:2:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.119
Player:
Opponent:
53.42% (G:16.96% B:0.71%)
46.58% (G:12.52% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.107...+0.130) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
2.Rollout124/20eq: +0.075 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
52.81% (G:13.62% B:0.66%)
47.19% (G:12.23% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.065...+0.085) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 24/21eq: +0.056 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
52.45% (G:12.80% B:0.55%)
47.55% (G:12.26% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.046...+0.066) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77936336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 8/5
[ 8] 24/23 13/10
[ 1] 24/20


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 6/5

Stick has a simple rule – every time you can make your 5 point, think very carefully about doing so. If making the 5 point is wrong, it will only be wrong by a little bit, but when it is correct, it will be correct by a lot. Here we should just make the 5 point with 8/5 6/5.

We will be hit with 17 numbers minus 4 non-hitting numbers (22, 33 and 51) plus 4 extra hitting numbers (52 and 43) so 17 numbers overall.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--BDBA---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:-1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.356
Player:
Opponent:
41.06% (G:11.85% B:0.60%)
58.94% (G:21.18% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.369...-0.344) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
2.Rollout124/16eq: -0.452 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
40.06% (G:9.07% B:0.48%)
59.94% (G:23.37% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.463...-0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77936336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/3.

I need to unstack and build my board as best as I can.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--BDBA---dD---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:2:0:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-B-BD-----BB-d-c-bcAb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.47% (G:15.86% B:0.10%) 70.92% (G:16.16% B:0.10%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.53% (G:5.35% B:0.23%) 29.08% (G:5.10% B:0.32%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.518 +1.072
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.776 (-0.093)±0.005 (+0.771..+0.781)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.868±0.009 (+0.859..+0.877)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.132)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 59 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] Redouble
[ 7] No Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Redouble

We escaped a checker, and now we can think about doubling.

If we use O’Hagan’s Law, we need 12 net market losers to redouble, assuming the other rolls are ok. Go through the numbers and you will see we do indeed have a net 12 market losers. And we are doing ok on the other rolls. In fact, all the rolls have positive equity, so ship it.


Neil Kazaross to play:

Neil Kazaross passes.

Even looking at the occasional fly shot I might hit next turn, I am hard pressed to come up with 20% hitting chances for me next roll and while these put me on the road to winning, they don’t guarantee a win. But what about later if they don’t get out and I enter and the can’t escape again? Well they usually can then hit my back checker somewhere.

Their non-escaping 11, 22,and 44 all make their 4 point, and put me in some gammon danger as well.

I am certainly not dead if they hop out, but being on the bar and behind in the race and with them with outfield control makes things look bleak, although sometimes I may get a fly shot or two as they come home.

All things considered this looks like a flip a coin decision, but rather than flip it, I’ll just be conservative and pass.


USBGF Members win two points and lead 9-away/11-away.



USBGF Members: 61 13/7 8/7
Neil Kazaross: 51 24/23 13/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---EBB---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:31:2:0:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-B-BD-----AB-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout121/12eq: +0.502
Player:
Opponent:
60.00% (G:15.10% B:0.17%)
40.00% (G:9.52% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.495...+0.509) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 12/6eq: +0.324 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:
52.96% (G:15.42% B:0.11%)
47.04% (G:8.00% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.318...+0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 52 seconds
3.Rollout112/3eq: +0.312 (-0.190)
Player:
Opponent:
52.70% (G:13.70% B:0.09%)
47.30% (G:7.90% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.306...+0.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 29 seconds
4.Rollout121/18 12/6eq: +0.303 (-0.199)
Player:
Opponent:
54.00% (G:14.78% B:0.18%)
46.00% (G:12.67% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.298...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 08 seconds
5.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: +0.283 (-0.219)
Player:
Opponent:
51.01% (G:16.58% B:0.11%)
48.99% (G:7.77% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.278...+0.289) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 21/12
[ 6] 13/7 12/9
[ 6] 13/10 13/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/12

Anchors are great. They protect us against being blitzed and if they are advanced enough, they protect us against being primed. But there comes a time to give up our anchor. Breaking our anchor when Neil is on the bar is probably the best time to break anchor — this includes breaking the anchor to hit. So we should run here. We will be up in the race by 9 pips after the roll.



Neil Kazaross: 65 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-B-BD-----BB-d-c-bcAb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-B-BD-----AB-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 58.49% (G:16.82% B:0.16%) 59.25% (G:16.96% B:0.21%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 41.51% (G:8.23% B:0.40%) 40.75% (G:8.39% B:0.57%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.257 +0.544
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.492±0.007 (+0.485..+0.499)
     Redouble/Take:+0.243 (-0.249)±0.011 (+0.232..+0.254)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.508)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] No Redouble
[ 7] Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Redouble

This is much more menacing, but we still have 2 checkers to escape.

If you move one of our checkers to the 16 point then it is almost a double. Move it to the 14 point and then we have only 1 checker left to escape – then we would have a redouble. So let’s escape one checker, and then give Neil the cube.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-B-BD-----AB-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-B-AD-----AC-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 47.09% (G:11.97% B:0.10%) 47.69% (G:12.07% B:0.10%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 52.91% (G:9.49% B:0.42%) 52.31% (G:10.43% B:0.58%)
  Cubeless Equities -0.036 -0.067
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.148±0.006 (+0.142..+0.154)
     Redouble/Take:-0.471 (-0.619)±0.012 (-0.483..-0.460)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.852)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 29.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] No Redouble
[ 0] Redouble



USBGF Members: 22 13/5
Neil Kazaross: 55 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-B-BD-----AB-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----AF-B-a--C-d-c-cbCb---:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout18/3(2) 6/1(2)eq: -0.568
Player:
Opponent:
20.15% (G:1.17% B:0.02%)
79.85% (G:4.28% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.569...-0.566) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 35 minutes
2.Rollout113/3 6/1(2)eq: -0.573 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
19.94% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
80.06% (G:4.25% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.575...-0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout221/6 13/8eq: -0.578 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
19.74% (G:1.03% B:0.03%)
80.26% (G:3.70% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.582...-0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 33 seconds
4.Rollout213/3 8/3 6/1eq: -0.578 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
19.93% (G:1.21% B:0.03%)
80.07% (G:4.84% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.582...-0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 26 seconds
5.Rollout213/3 8/3(2)eq: -0.584 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
19.66% (G:1.12% B:0.03%)
80.34% (G:4.57% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.588...-0.580) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 47 seconds
6.Rollout221/6 8/3eq: -0.585 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
19.53% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
80.47% (G:3.98% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.589...-0.582) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 15 seconds
7.Rollout221/11 8/3(2)eq: -0.592 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
20.02% (G:1.36% B:0.03%)
79.98% (G:6.14% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.596...-0.588) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 35 seconds
8.Rollout221/1eq: -0.592 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
19.44% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
80.56% (G:4.75% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.596...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 05 seconds
9.Rollout213/8(2) 13/3eq: -0.602 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
18.66% (G:0.88% B:0.02%)
81.34% (G:3.88% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.606...-0.599) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 45 seconds
10.Rollout221/11 13/3eq: -0.605 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
19.62% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
80.38% (G:6.53% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.609...-0.601) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 41 seconds
11.Rollout221/11 6/1(2)eq: -0.610 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
19.34% (G:1.15% B:0.03%)
80.66% (G:6.66% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.613...-0.606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 35 seconds
12.Rollout213/8(3) 6/1eq: -0.620 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
17.99% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
82.01% (G:4.35% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.624...-0.617) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 35 seconds
13.Rollout221/16 13/3 8/3eq: -0.629 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
19.62% (G:1.68% B:0.06%)
80.38% (G:9.55% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.633...-0.625) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 8/3(2) 6/1(2)
[ 3] 21/6 13/8
[ 2] 13/3 6/1(2)
[ 2] 21/11 8/3(2)
[ 1] 21/16 13/3 8/3
[ 1] 21/16 13/3 8/3
[ 1] 21/11 6/1(2)
[ 1] 21/11 13/3
[ 1] 13/3 8/3(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3(2) 6/1(2)

After the roll we will still be behind in the race by 20 pips with Neil on roll, so we should not moving any of our back checkers.

Instead, we need to concentrate on building our board so if we get a shot and hit it, we have the best board we can possibly have. Our 6 point also needs unstacking so we should just play 8/3(2) 6/1(2).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-B-AD---a--C-d-c-cbCb---:1:1:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout115/13 6/5eq: +0.436
Player:
Opponent:
74.03% (G:7.24% B:0.25%)
25.97% (G:3.03% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.432...+0.441) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout115/14 10/8eq: +0.399 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
72.60% (G:7.37% B:0.24%)
27.40% (G:3.31% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.394...+0.404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/13 6/5.

There are only 2 plays to consider. 15/13 6/5 which leaves 15 shots but only one hit/cover roll and 15/14 10/8 which leaves 13 shots but 6 hit/cover rolls.
Hit and covers are very bad for me so this has me thinking to just leave them the one joker. Additionally, it is a bit easier for me to play safe next turn when missed if I advance 15/13. 15/14 also lets their hitting 55 play rather well.

Everything points to 15/13 6/5 being clear.



USBGF Members: 63 21/12*
Neil Kazaross: 61 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-B-AD-----AC-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=------F-C-ba-C-b-c-cbBb--A:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 8/5eq: -0.516
Player:
Opponent:
23.54% (G:2.84% B:0.08%)
76.46% (G:9.26% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.518...-0.514) - [99.9%]
Duration: 5 hours 36 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 6/3eq: -0.521 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
23.49% (G:2.75% B:0.09%)
76.51% (G:9.46% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.523...-0.519) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 hours 28 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/21 8/5
[14] b/21 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 8/5

It would be nice to unstack the 6 point but the 5 point is the 5 point so we should play 8/5. In a chouette I would go with whatever the team wanted.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----AF-B-ba-C-b-c-cbCb---:1:1:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout115/10 14/10eq: +0.513
Player:
Opponent:
76.23% (G:9.23% B:0.21%)
23.77% (G:2.64% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.511...+0.515) - [99.2%]
Duration: 5 hours 16 minutes
2.Rollout115/11 15/10eq: +0.509 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
76.14% (G:9.50% B:0.24%)
23.86% (G:2.93% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.508...+0.511) - [0.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 23 minutes
3.Rollout214/5eq: +0.479 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
75.23% (G:9.05% B:0.19%)
24.77% (G:3.04% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.475...+0.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 08 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/10 14/10.

It certainly looks like time to pay now and duplicate 3’s and leave only 6 hit and cover rolls while their board is still awkward. If I wait and play 14/5, they can cover their slot with 24 rolls (although 22 is better played making the 4 point) and have a couple other rolls that make inside point(s) so I will face greater danger later. This play goes along with my plan from a couple of rolls ago when I attacked with 44 hoping to slow their board development.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----AF-B-a--C-d-c-cbCb---:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 171
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C-aA-C-b-cbcbB---A:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 11/6eq: -0.387
Player:
Opponent:
29.83% (G:5.54% B:0.21%)
70.17% (G:14.08% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.394...-0.379) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.419 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
30.62% (G:6.14% B:0.28%)
69.38% (G:20.06% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.426...-0.412) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 6/1* eq: -0.426 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
30.17% (G:6.05% B:0.20%)
69.83% (G:19.26% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.433...-0.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/22 11/6
[12] b/22 6/1*
[ 5] b/22 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 11/6

Now is not the time to leave blots. I know that I would play 11/6 quickly even though I do not like stacking the 6 point, leaving blots is worse.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-F-C-a--C-b-cbcbBA---:1:1:-1:44:0:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout124/16 7/3*(2) eq: +0.421
Player:
Opponent:
71.10% (G:14.86% B:0.57%)
28.90% (G:5.03% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.415...+0.426) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 15/11 7/3*(2) eq: +0.408 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
70.46% (G:15.92% B:0.49%)
29.54% (G:5.31% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.402...+0.414) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.Rollout115/3* 7/3eq: +0.354 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
67.12% (G:19.91% B:0.65%)
32.88% (G:6.40% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.348...+0.361) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
4.Rollout124/16 15/7eq: +0.350 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
68.52% (G:15.73% B:0.59%)
31.48% (G:6.24% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.343...+0.356) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/16 7/3*(2).

I find this to be a difficult choice between keeping my blockade or switching to the 3 point. I’d switch instantly if there were any other blots to pick up. Lets look at the complete play. If I play 15/7, then the last two 4’s run 24/16. If I play 7/3*(2), then the best way to play the position should be to run 24/16 maintaining connectivity while they are on the bar and have very few jokers. So with that settled I play 24/16 and just have to compare 15/7 vs. 7/3*(2).

I think 15/7 would be right if my two back checkers were closer to home. But in looking at how all their rolls play I think pointing is better. My big gains come the 25% of the time they dance, as I maintain the initiative and can easily move closer to home and my gammon chances go up. If they enter with anything but a joker they can’t make a new point and their entering 5’s and 6’s don’t accomplish much. If I get hit in their outfield I have return shots and some other rolls can enter and make a point in their outfield.

I’ll hit, trying to maintain the initiative and using a 3 point board, while trying to slow them from developing their position.



USBGF Members: 65 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=----a-F-Caa--C-b-c-cbBb--A:1:1:-1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout121/15 16/14eq: +0.551
Player:
Opponent:
76.12% (G:14.33% B:0.43%)
23.88% (G:3.27% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.546...+0.556) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
2.Rollout121/13eq: +0.527 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
74.62% (G:16.17% B:0.46%)
25.38% (G:3.99% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.521...+0.533) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
3.Rollout121/15 8/6eq: +0.520 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
74.67% (G:15.05% B:0.46%)
25.33% (G:3.71% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.515...+0.526) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout116/10 15/13eq: +0.512 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
74.09% (G:16.22% B:0.50%)
25.91% (G:3.98% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.506...+0.517) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/15 16/14.

I should just make my way towards home.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=------F-C-ba-C-b-c-cbBb--A:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-AAcC---cadbA--A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.15% (G:25.98% B:2.04%) 63.98% (G:27.44% B:2.34%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.85% (G:8.98% B:0.47%) 36.02% (G:9.31% B:0.54%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.473 +0.984
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.665 (-0.027)±0.004 (+0.661..+0.670)
played Double/Take:+0.693±0.007 (+0.686..+0.699)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.307)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 hours 34 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] Take
[ 4] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

Good double, Neil has 10 checkers in the zone and points on us with 10 numbers. He hits us in the outfield 7 numbers.

But we are not on the bar and Neil has misses. This can go many ways, we could anchor, or hit back or not be hit. It is far too early to let this go. This is an easy take.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

While the game has just begun I believe that I have enough threats and a strong enough position to cube. Most certainly, the USBGF Members have adequate play to make this a clear take. My real threats come from hitting something and having them dance or enter poorly. Most of my rolls can either point on them or make a 4 prime. If this gets into a blot hitting contest I have the stronger board and often will have a 4 prime as well.

Due to my attack, I (as does Grant) think 10/8 was slightly better than 13/11 for their last play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-AAcC---cadbA--A-:1:1:-1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 6/4* eq: +0.355
Player:
Opponent:
64.95% (G:25.85% B:2.42%)
35.05% (G:9.37% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.348...+0.362) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 13/7eq: +0.200 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
61.87% (G:20.22% B:1.31%)
38.13% (G:9.87% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.193...+0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
3.Rollout17/1* 6/4* eq: +0.195 (-0.159)
Player:
Opponent:
59.04% (G:27.71% B:2.58%)
40.96% (G:12.02% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.187...+0.204) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 6/4*.

I have a straight forward normal attacking play. 13/7 makes my 4 prime and then I’ll play 6/4*, hoping to extend my prime or blitz. I will be missed half the time and have a very strong advantage. The other half the time I will be hit and have a 4 prime and hope to roll decently from the bar, entering their 1 point board and hopefully accomplishing something somewhere. Additionally, they will be in extreme danger after their 4 dancing rolls.



USBGF Members: 64 b/21*/15


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 165
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab----E-C-AAbC-A-cbcb---A-:1:1:-1:43:0:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/10* eq: +0.303
Player:
Opponent:
63.71% (G:25.70% B:2.56%)
36.29% (G:10.48% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.295...+0.312) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 24/21eq: +0.111 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
58.60% (G:18.84% B:0.86%)
41.40% (G:9.27% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.103...+0.119) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 13/10*.

Fortunately I can return hit. This is much better than anchoring and allowing them to consolidate and make new good points.



USBGF Members: 43 b/21 24/21


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--a-E-C-AAaC-a-cbcbB----:1:1:-1:33:0:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout124/15* 13/10eq: +0.321
Player:
Opponent:
66.83% (G:17.25% B:0.66%)
33.17% (G:6.89% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.313...+0.329) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 24/15* eq: +0.264 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
64.54% (G:17.23% B:0.96%)
35.46% (G:7.53% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.256...+0.271) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/15* 13/10.

This looks clear to me as well as I have a play that sends back a third checker, gains nicely in the race, diversifies, and makes my 10 point while cleaning up blots and better containing their checkers that just anchored on my 4 point. Hitting is much better for me than passively anchoring somewhere.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 171
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C-aA-C-b-cbcbB---A:1:1:1:35:0:0:0:11:10
to play 35

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-cD---cadb---AA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.Rollout1Bar/21 10/8eq: -0.664
Player:
Opponent:
35.60% (G:8.32% B:0.41%)
64.40% (G:24.33% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.669...-0.660) - [75.7%]
Duration: 12 hours 36 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/9eq: -0.667 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
36.29% (G:9.75% B:0.50%)
63.71% (G:27.54% B:2.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.673...-0.660) - [24.3%]
Duration: 13 hours 12 minutes
3.playedRollout2Bar/21 13/11eq: -0.689 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
35.79% (G:9.02% B:0.41%)
64.21% (G:26.36% B:2.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.703...-0.675) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/21 24/22eq: -0.697 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
35.84% (G:8.60% B:0.49%)
64.16% (G:27.93% B:1.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.713...-0.681) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] b/21 13/11
[ 8] b/23 13/9
[ 7] b/21 10/8
[ 3] b/21 24/22


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 10/8

Neil has 10 checkers in the zone so it looks like we should enter on the 23 point, but if we do that 13/9 leaves another blot and 10/6 overstacks the 6 point. So we have to enter on the 21 point. We want to avoid 13/11 as it leaves another blot when we could be attacked.

Entering on the 21 point is good because if Neil makes a prime, we could anchor at the very edge of it. We will probably be attacked so we want to have reduce the number of blots we have anywhere. This means we need to play 10/8 which tidies up the blot but does not over stack the 10 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-AAcC---cadbA--A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-07-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-db---B-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/18 13/10eq: -0.381
Player:
Opponent:
42.01% (G:10.47% B:0.50%)
57.99% (G:19.63% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.386...-0.376) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 59 minutes
2.Rollout124/15eq: -0.394 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
41.86% (G:9.39% B:0.43%)
58.14% (G:19.25% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.398...-0.389) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 51 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/18 13/10
[ 7] 24/15


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 13/10

For years I always played 24/15 but it is better to split now with 24/18 13/10 while Neil has a stripped 8 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---bAdb---A-:0:0:-1:65:0:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/8 13/7* eq: +0.485
Player:
Opponent:
60.21% (G:21.46% B:1.15%)
39.79% (G:10.15% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.480...+0.490) - [99.9%]
Duration: 11 hours 48 minutes
2.Rollout113/7* 6/1* eq: +0.474 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
58.96% (G:25.04% B:1.01%)
41.04% (G:11.20% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.469...+0.479) - [0.1%]
Duration: 10 hours 51 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 13/7*.

This happens to be a 3rd roll situation that I know and was discussing with David Rockwell in Novi. The best play is 13/8 13/7*.

In contrast to responding to an opening 63 24/18 13/10, now 13/8 adds a needed spare to the 8 point, whereas 6/1* is getting close to stripping the 6 point. Additionally the presence of my 5 point means that 65 and 22 no longer can hit me.

Also quite important is that my play steers towards making a 4 prime and also a priming game.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-cD---cadb---AA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-04

[Previous] [Next]


Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-db---B-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 4
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBB----AA-------A-bB-:1:1:1:65:6:7:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout121/15 13/8eq: -2.470
Player:
Opponent:
0.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.32% (G:91.29% B:90.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.470...-2.469) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32.3 seconds
2.Rollout121/10eq: -2.471 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
0.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.33% (G:91.35% B:91.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.471...-2.470) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.2 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 12/6eq: -2.474 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
0.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.34% (G:91.50% B:91.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-2.474...-2.473) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59.3 seconds
4.Rollout124/18 13/8eq: -2.477 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
0.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.35% (G:91.69% B:88.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-2.477...-2.476) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.1 seconds
5.Rollout124/18 21/16eq: -2.479 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
0.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.36% (G:91.79% B:75.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.479...-2.478) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41.2 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37236461
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 21/15 13/8
[ 6] 24/18 13/8
[ 4] 21/10
[ 4] 24/18 21/16
[ 1] 13/8 12/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 13/8

We have to come down to 1 checker on the 24 point so that any 1 by Neil except 11 gives us a shot.

Then it would be great to have a 6 prime, so the 5 has to be played 13/8. This means we have to play 24/18 with the 6.



Neil Kazaross: 61 2/0
USBGF Members: 54 15/10 12/8
Neil Kazaross: 53 2/0


Neil Kazaross wins four points and wins the match.

USBGF OLM 2018-07-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 9
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBA--A--A--A----AacB-:1:1:1:43:6:7:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout116/12 10/7eq: -2.304
Player:
Opponent:
3.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.73% (G:85.44% B:82.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.306...-2.303) - [52.2%]
Duration: 26 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout121/17 10/7eq: -2.304 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.75% (G:85.44% B:81.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.306...-2.303) - [47.8%]
Duration: 26 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout124/20 10/7eq: -2.342 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
2.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.20% (G:86.99% B:78.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-2.343...-2.341) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 16/12 10/7
[ 6] 21/17 10/7
[ 5] 24/20 10/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/12 10/7

We need to hit to win or just get off the gammon. So we should play as though we will get a shot and hit it. Therefore we should play 10/7, making a 5 prime. After that we need to make the 8 point so we should play 16/12, bringing another checker within range to make it.

If this were for money we should try to get off the backgammon and play 24/20 21/18.



Neil Kazaross: 52 3/0 2/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 4
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 144
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBB----AA-------A-bB-:1:1:1:65:6:7:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-07-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 13
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-A-A-----A-A--AcbB-:1:1:1:51:6:7:0:11:10
to play 51

1.Rollout121/20 18/13eq: -1.604
Player:
Opponent:
14.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.49% (G:61.81% B:59.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.607...-1.600) - [52.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
2.playedRollout118/13 8/7eq: -1.604 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
14.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.54% (G:61.74% B:59.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.608...-1.601) - [37.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
3.Rollout116/11 8/7eq: -1.606 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
14.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.58% (G:61.76% B:59.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.610...-1.603) - [9.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
4.Rollout118/13 16/15eq: -1.609 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
14.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.59% (G:61.97% B:59.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.612...-1.605) - [0.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
5.Rollout118/17 16/11eq: -1.613 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
14.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.64% (G:62.15% B:59.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.616...-1.609) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
6.Rollout221/15eq: -1.618 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
14.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.75% (G:62.27% B:57.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.627...-1.610) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 24 seconds
7.Rollout221/16 8/7eq: -1.622 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
14.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.98% (G:62.20% B:59.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.632...-1.613) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 02 seconds
8.Rollout221/20 10/5eq: -1.659 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
13.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.49% (G:63.38% B:60.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.667...-1.650) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds
9.Rollout216/15 10/5eq: -1.662 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
13.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.54% (G:63.43% B:60.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.670...-1.653) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 10 seconds
10.Rollout224/19 8/7eq: -1.741 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:
11.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.18% (G:65.66% B:53.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.750...-1.733) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 58 seconds
11.Rollout224/18eq: -1.745 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:
11.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.25% (G:65.71% B:50.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.752...-1.737) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 18/13 8/7
[ 3] 24/19 8/7
[ 2] 16/11 8/7
[ 2] 21/20 18/13
[ 2] 24/18
[ 1] 21/20 10/5
[ 1] 18/13 16/15
[ 1] 16/15 10/5
[ 1] 21/16 8/7
[ 1] 21/15



Neil Kazaross: 51 3/2 3/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 9
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBA--A--A--A----AacB-:1:1:1:43:6:7:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-06-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 18
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 166
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBAB-A-AA----A-A---dcC-:1:1:1:63:6:7:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/21 11/5eq: -1.857
Player:
Opponent:
10.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.61% (G:70.21% B:63.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.860...-1.854) - [75.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 16/13eq: -1.862 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
10.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.69% (G:70.35% B:60.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.865...-1.858) - [2.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout224/18 8/5eq: -1.862 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
10.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.69% (G:70.35% B:61.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.869...-1.855) - [9.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 49 seconds
4.xgRollout211/5 10/7eq: -1.862 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
10.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.71% (G:70.27% B:63.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.871...-1.854) - [12.6%]
Duration: 18 minutes 53 seconds
5.Rollout216/13 11/5eq: -1.869 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
10.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.89% (G:70.56% B:63.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.878...-1.861) - [0.3%]
Duration: 18 minutes 45 seconds
6.Rollout218/12 8/5eq: -1.885 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
9.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.15% (G:71.10% B:66.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.893...-1.877) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 52 seconds
7.Rollout224/21 24/18eq: -2.026 (-0.168)
Player:
Opponent:
8.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.89% (G:76.55% B:42.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-2.032...-2.019) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 24/21 11/5
[ 8] 24/18 8/5
[ 5] 11/5 10/7
[ 2] 18/12 8/5
[ 2] 24/21 24/18
[ 1] 24/18 16/13
[ 1] 16/13 11/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 11/5

We need to cover the blot on our 5 point with the 6 or 3. We do not much care about whether we are backgammoned as long as we are not gammoned. We are highly likely to be gammoned if we lose, so we need to focus on ensuring we win. We will only win if we get a shot, hit a shot and contain the hit checker. We cannot control the first two parts of what we need to do but we can focus build the best board / prime that we can.

I like leaving the checker on the 8 point where it is and playing 11/5. If we can make the 8 point we can block Neil in. After that we can either play 16/13 for better coverage or there may be times when we want to only have 1 checker on our 1 point to 24/21. In a chouette I would go with how my teammates felt but probably I would play 24/21.



Neil Kazaross: 42 3/0 2/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 13
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-A-A-----A-A--AcbB-:1:1:1:51:6:7:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10