USBGF OLM 2017-04-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbBCBBB--aa---bBc-bb-bA:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 6/5eq: +0.239
Player:
Opponent:
57.88% (G:13.64% B:0.87%)
42.12% (G:18.95% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.226...+0.251) - [83.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 3/2eq: +0.230 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
57.10% (G:13.63% B:0.82%)
42.90% (G:18.47% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.217...+0.243) - [16.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/20 6/5
[ 5] b/20 3/2


Mary Hickey recommends: b/20 6/5

The 5 is forced, and the ace is almost as clear: 6/5 allows us to leave the point we want next slotted, but 3/2 pushes it down a spot. I don’t see any reason to make the other play–it “saves a 5”, but I don’t see us running short of 5s, whether we get hit again or not.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbCBBBB--aa---bBcAbb-b-:0:0:-1:43:4:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout112/5*eq: -0.275
Player:
Opponent:
41.39% (G:20.08% B:0.31%)
58.61% (G:13.33% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.286...-0.264) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout113/9 12/9eq: -0.313 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
41.81% (G:10.85% B:0.21%)
58.19% (G:9.11% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.322...-0.303) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/5*.

Bombs away here, as I am happy to attack with 12/5*. This leaves 16 return shots which I might survive with a good response and 16 chances for my opponents to dance, after which I am in good shape and can hopefully cover my 5 point and soon hop a checker out with a 6 and be on the way to winning a gammon. If the score were gammon save, I think I’d have to wimp and just make my 9 point.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbCBBBB--a----bBcabb-bA:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:52.72% (G:28.81% B:0.35%)52.56% (G:29.05% B:0.38%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:47.28% (G:9.53% B:0.38%)47.44% (G:9.48% B:0.37%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.285+0.598
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.224
     Double/Take:+0.047 (-0.177)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.776)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I think I now have some advantage, but I need to accomplish some of my threats prior to doubling.



Neil Kazaross: 63 21/18 8/5
USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AaCBBBBa-a----aBcbbb-bA:0:0:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++No doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:73.34% (G:47.97% B:0.43%)73.68% (G:47.68% B:0.41%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:26.66% (G:3.45% B:0.14%)26.32% (G:3.60% B:0.14%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.986+2.049
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.038
     Double/Take:+1.747 (+0.709)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.038)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 5.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

This joker followed by their dance has left me in a very powerful position from which I can win many gammons. At this score, a cubeless gammon is worth somewhat more than usual to me since it puts me at a critical score 4-away from victory. When I combine that with how poorly most of the reader’s entering rolls play due to their stripped position, I think I should play on here.

64 closes my board, 6’s escape, 5’s and 7’s make my 8 point and my other rolls are OK.

I think this is too good, and if not it must be close and I may be able to offer a more interesting (i.e. one where the readers may err) cube later on.



Neil Kazaross: 66 21/3 15/9
USBGF Members: 41 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-CBBBB--a---aaBcbbc-bA:0:0:-1:51:4:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedXG Roller++13/8 6/5eq: +1.502
Player:
Opponent:
90.32% (G:61.06% B:0.17%)
9.68% (G:0.66% B:0.03%)
2.xgXG Roller++13/8 9/8eq: +1.500 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
90.65% (G:60.27% B:0.17%)
9.35% (G:0.68% B:0.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 6/5.

It seems automatic to stack both checkers on the 8 pt but that gives me 6 blotting 6’s if my opponents roll anything but a 52 to escape. Maybe it is worth leaving a 22 shot with 6/5 to avoid this.

Let me do some math to see if it helps starting with stacking the 8 pt. I will be hit 6/36 x 11/36 of the time next roll on the 2 point and that is 66/1296. I expect I am a slight dog when hit so lets assume that I lose 36 of those 1296 games.

If I leave the 22 super joker I am hit 1/36 or 36/1296 of the time and will be a clear dog (but not dead yet) so let’s say I lose 22 of those games. This is looking to be worth the risk but note that 66 blots. 66 occurs 1/36 of the time and is hit 11/36 of the time and I will be a substantial dog after that and expect to lose maybe 8 of those 1296 games. Well, 22+8 is less than 36 so the math (assuming that I didn’t butcher it) seems to favor leaving 22 now.

Additionally after playing 6/5 I have one more roll (11) to make my close out. Also after 6/5 I can more safely clear my 8 pt with a roll like 43 after my opps dance and leave only 1 shot. Everything seems to be slightly in favor of playing 13/8 6/5 leaving the 22 super joker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 71
             
11 point match
              pip: 139
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-CBBBB------abBbcbc-bA:0:0:1:22:4:5:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Tue 4/25 345p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-04-23

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 122
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDABB--bB---bBcabb-a-:0:0:1:63:4:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/7 6/3eq: +0.420
Player:
Opponent:
61.02% (G:12.04% B:0.48%)
38.98% (G:9.60% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.409...+0.431) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: +0.278 (-0.143)
Player:
Opponent:
58.23% (G:10.68% B:0.53%)
41.77% (G:11.76% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.268...+0.287) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13280817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 13/7 6/3
[ 6] 13/10 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/7 6/3

Of course we start by completing the point in the center of our prime, 13/7. The 3 gives us two reasonable choices, but 6/3 stands out as better than 13/10 for three reasons:

1) (strategic) If he hits, it’s not “with tempo”, getting one man off his increasingly blocked-in anchor.

2) (also strategic) Any return shots we get outside his board are better for us, because then we will be the ones that “hit with tempo”. If we hit him back, we will send a third man back and gain in the race, and so will need to be thinking about getting off the anchor. Doing that at the same time as hitting looks like a winning combo.

3) (tactical) 6/3 means most of his hits are with aces, which are duplicated to cover his 5 point.

That third item rates to be less important than the first two, as would be expected since hit-and-cover duplication is one of its least important varieties. But it still adds value to the right play, even though the first two reasons, and maybe just the first one alone, should be enough to make it right.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 122
             
11 point match
              pip: 128
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbBCBBB--bA---bBcabb-a-:0:0:-1:41:4:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedXG Roller++13/12* 5/1eq: -0.138
Player:
Opponent:
43.70% (G:19.03% B:0.39%)
56.30% (G:11.95% B:0.52%)
2.XG Roller++6/5 6/2eq: -0.432 (-0.293)
Player:
Opponent:
37.89% (G:4.96% B:0.06%)
62.11% (G:8.82% B:0.21%)
3.XG Roller++6/1eq: -0.435 (-0.297)
Player:
Opponent:
37.81% (G:5.33% B:0.07%)
62.19% (G:9.04% B:0.21%)
4.XG Roller++6/2 3/2eq: -0.448 (-0.310)
Player:
Opponent:
37.63% (G:4.83% B:0.06%)
62.37% (G:9.25% B:0.23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12* 5/1.

This roll gives me a golden opportunity to try to seize the advantage. I must risk some returns shots by hitting 13/12* 5/1. If I am hit back in return I will have plenty of counter chances with my own return shots.

Passive play here will leave me stripped and praying to roll 66 next time so I have to risk changing the currently unfavorable course of this game.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbBCBBB--aa---bBc-bb-bA:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBD-BB--cB---bCcaba-a-:0:0:1:65:4:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedXG Roller++18/7eq: +0.206
Player:
Opponent:
56.22% (G:9.54% B:0.33%)
43.78% (G:8.88% B:0.17%)
2.XG Roller++13/8 13/7eq: +0.146 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
54.33% (G:9.96% B:0.37%)
45.67% (G:9.52% B:0.18%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 18/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 18/7
A solid prime is better than a broken one, and the risk that slotting the missing point in the middle of our broken prime will blow up in our collective face is about as low as it will get in this particular game. It seems the way to go, especially since there are no non-slotting plays that look good at all. We could slot our bar by bringing both checkers from our midpoint down, but 18/7 has the added advantages of getting the spare on our anchor moving, and allowing us to keep our midpoint. 18/7 looks to be the strongest and most efficient–“What’s not to like?”



Neil Kazaross: 64 13/3


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 122
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDABB--bB---bBcabb-a-:0:0:1:63:4:5:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aaD-DB--dB---bBd-b--aA:0:0:1:53:4:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 8/5*eq: +0.006
Player:
Opponent:
51.32% (G:12.65% B:0.69%)
48.68% (G:16.71% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.008...+0.020) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 8/3eq: -0.101 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
48.30% (G:11.99% B:0.62%)
51.70% (G:16.35% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.112...-0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 6/3eq: -0.118 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent:
47.71% (G:11.87% B:0.71%)
52.29% (G:16.32% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.130...-0.106) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65365702
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/20 8/5*
[ 3] b/20 6/3
[ 1] b/22 8/3


Mary Hickey recommends: b/20 8/5*

Now we almost have to hit him on the 5 point, bar/20 8/5*, because we don’t have a constructive alternative. About the only other play that even exists is bar/20 8/3, but that leaves us weak in two areas, which is never good. The blot on our own 3 point would not be threatened by an immediate attack, but its presence would leave him more free than he already is to hit us loose in his home. It looks better for us to start the hitting instead, and hope we make our own 5 point if missed, and his 5 point if we are hit.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 147
             
11 point match
              pip: 153
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---aAD-CB--dB---bBdAb--a-:0:0:-1:43:4:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout1Bar/21 4/1eq: -0.173
Player:
Opponent:
44.84% (G:10.61% B:0.22%)
55.16% (G:10.27% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.184...-0.162) - [95.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/21 6/3eq: -0.186 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
44.80% (G:10.43% B:0.25%)
55.20% (G:10.04% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.197...-0.176) - [4.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 8/5*eq: -0.262 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
43.01% (G:13.59% B:0.30%)
56.99% (G:13.72% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.274...-0.250) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65365702
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays .

B/21 makes a nice anchor and now I have to content myself with a somewhat inferior mutual holding game. 8/5* is way too loose. 4/1 is ugly. So it looks like 6/3, starting a new point.



USBGF Members: 32 20/18 8/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBD-BB--dB---bCc-ba-a-:0:0:-1:62:4:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedXG Roller++13/5eq: -0.176
Player:
Opponent:
44.46% (G:9.40% B:0.12%)
55.54% (G:9.45% B:0.33%)
2.XG Roller++8/6 8/2eq: -0.306 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:
41.59% (G:8.46% B:0.09%)
58.41% (G:10.95% B:0.39%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/5.

There’s nothing for me to play here but 13/5. If I leave my anchor, my remaining checker will get clobbered noting that my weak blotty board won’t deter an attack.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 132
             
11 point match
              pip: 148
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBD-BB--cB---bCcaba-a-:0:0:1:65:4:5:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-13

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 165
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aaD-DA--dC--abBd-b---A:0:0:1:41:4:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedXG Roller++Bar/24 13/9eq: -0.104
Player:
Opponent:
47.67% (G:9.27% B:0.30%)
52.33% (G:12.37% B:0.40%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/24 9/5*eq: -0.239 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent:
45.18% (G:9.49% B:0.31%)
54.82% (G:16.43% B:0.69%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] b/24 13/9
[ 7] b/24 9/5*


Mary Hickey recommends: b/24 13/9

There is very little point in continuing our attack here. If he hits us back, that’s a bad outcome, but so is having him simply anchor on the 4 point. In that case, we’d be better off with the 9 point already made than the 5 point merely slotted, and which we might fail to cover. The 5 point can wait; the 9 point is a good offensive point and we should just grab it while we can do so without risk.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 160
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aaD-DB--dB--abBd-b--A-:0:0:-1:62:4:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedXG Roller++9/1*eq: -0.063
Player:
Opponent:
48.15% (G:12.86% B:0.32%)
51.85% (G:11.92% B:0.51%)
2.XG Roller++21/13eq: -0.092 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
48.50% (G:10.09% B:0.39%)
51.50% (G:12.57% B:0.37%)
3.XG Roller++20/14 6/4eq: -0.112 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
48.05% (G:10.71% B:0.42%)
51.95% (G:13.63% B:0.53%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/1*.

My opponents’ 9 point now nicely pressures my checkers that have advanced in their board. I have 3 choice for this less than optimal 62.

1) I can run a checker to safety with 21/13. The problem with this is that this leaves me exposed to being hit with 2’s and pointed on by combos of 1,3,and 4. I think I can do better with play 2…

2) I can duplicate 2’s with 20/14 6/4. This while leaving me vulnerable to jokers, seems thematic with my race lead as it moves towards home. I would be happy to make my 9 point next roll with a 5 if not hit. But the problem is that if not hit with a 2, my remaining back checker will usually be hit with 4’s and 5’s.

3) I can punt 9/1* and hope for something better next roll. 1/9 of the time my opponents will dance and then I will be quite happy to have hit. If I get hit with an ace or even double hit, hopefully I can make an advanced anchor and stabilize.

They say, “when in doubt, hit.” Noting my better board and that I don’t like any play I will go with that.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 161
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aaD-DB--dB---bBd-b--aA:0:0:1:53:4:5:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-11

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-D---dCA-abBd-b----:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout114/8eq: +0.054
Player:
Opponent:
51.64% (G:10.01% B:0.38%)
48.36% (G:10.90% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.045...+0.064) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
2.playedRollout114/9 6/5*eq: +0.007 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
50.51% (G:13.04% B:0.53%)
49.49% (G:14.70% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.004...+0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91679238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 14/9 6/5*
[13] 14/8
[ 2] 6/5* 6/1*


Mary Hickey recommends: 14/9 6/5*

We are about equal in the race here, and also outboarded, which points toward playing safe. But on the other hand, we have an advanced anchor, and it’s OK that it’s outside his board when he has only two points made. The gammon risk won’t be that high if we’re hit just because we don’t have an anchor in his board. That means bold plays may be acceptable if they have a good enough chance to succeed.

Over the board, I would play 14/9 6/5*, booting him off his anchor-slot and trying to begin construction work on our offense before the window of opportunity closes. If we just sit there watching him develop his board, it may soon be strong enough that we have no choice but to keep tiptoeing around until either the dice bail us out, or we’re hit after a forced shot and then get doubled out. I’d rather take the chance now while we still have excellent chances to bounce back from a setback, if there is one.

That all said, the race does matter, and so playing safe may be advisable despite the candlesticks it leaves. The less than ideal distribution of five on the 8 point and three on the mid argues against that play, though not decisively, since at least that fifth checker is in the Zone and so might prove useful later. But over the board, there’s no way I’d talk myself into weenieing here. 14/8 has too much the look of a frogboiler to me. I’d hit and see what happens.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 158
             
11 point match
              pip: 145
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa---AD-DA--dC--abBd-b----:0:0:-1:53:4:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/20* 24/21eq: +0.216
Player:
Opponent:
54.32% (G:16.08% B:0.67%)
45.68% (G:10.01% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.205...+0.228) - [86.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 58 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20* 13/10eq: +0.205 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
53.61% (G:18.78% B:0.92%)
46.39% (G:11.20% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.192...+0.218) - [10.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20* 9/6eq: +0.200 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
53.75% (G:17.52% B:0.80%)
46.25% (G:10.59% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.186...+0.214) - [3.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 57 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72136553
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20* 24/21.

After hitting B/20x there are three 3’s to consider.

1) 9/6 is safe but looks stacked and nonconstructive.

2) 13/10 adds another builder but if I get hit somewhere, I don’t get to use that builder and I may run the risk of jokers from leaving more blots.

3) 24/21 looks clear to me as I now lead the race by 15 pips and would be happy to either make an advanced anchor or move my checkers closer to home next turn.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 165
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=----aaD-DA--dC--abBd-b---A:0:0:1:41:4:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--bAd-b--A-:0:0:1:65:4:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout124/18 13/8eq: -0.072
Player:
Opponent:
48.73% (G:9.01% B:0.30%)
51.27% (G:12.01% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.082...-0.062) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout124/18 10/5eq: -0.165 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
46.35% (G:9.22% B:0.39%)
53.65% (G:12.99% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.176...-0.155) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
3.Rollout124/18 6/1*eq: -0.207 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
45.65% (G:9.54% B:0.36%)
54.35% (G:14.99% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.218...-0.195) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 05 minutes
4.Rollout118/13 10/4*eq: -0.303 (-0.231)
Player:
Opponent:
43.76% (G:11.24% B:0.70%)
56.24% (G:18.73% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.315...-0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
5.Rollout110/4* 6/1*eq: -0.312 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:
43.48% (G:12.01% B:0.60%)
56.52% (G:20.29% B:1.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.324...-0.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91679238
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/18 13/8
[ 2] 18/13 10/4*
[ 1] 24/18 10/5
[ 1] 10/4* 6/1*
[ 1] 24/18 6/1*


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/18 13/8

We have a good opportunity to make our defensive anchor on the 18 point, so any alternative has to be pretty strong to fight it. Since all the alternatives leave more than one blot and do nothing constructive, 24/18 must be our 6. Now what about the 5?

Slotting the 5 point is ambitious and well-intentioned, trying hard to seize the best point in our home, but it leaves 21 shots and doesn’t guarantee that we cover it if it’s missed. That isn’t an automatic deal-breaker for the play, but 13/8 leaves only 16 shots and also gives us many ways to make a good point if it’s missed. We might get the 5, the 4, the bar, or even just the 9 point, but they’re all good. Leaving five extra shots to make a stronger bid for the best point instead doesn’t look to be a good tradeoff.



Neil Kazaross: 51 21/15*
USBGF Members: 65 b/14*
Neil Kazaross: 65 b/20 15/9


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-D---dCA-abBd-b----:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:63:4:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/18 13/10eq: -0.328
Player:
Opponent:
43.50% (G:11.13% B:0.63%)
56.50% (G:20.65% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.333...-0.323) - [84.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 47 minutes
2.xgRollout124/15eq: -0.331 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
43.34% (G:9.48% B:0.50%)
56.66% (G:18.54% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.336...-0.327) - [16.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 06 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68643906
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/18 13/10
[ 9]


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/18 13/10

Split and down, 24/18 13/10, is the book money response to a 42 opener, but even without the bot’s rollouts we can see its advantages. It tries for good points on both sides of the board, hoping to end up with something good when the dust settles. This is the time to make this kind of bid for position, before it gets more dangerous.

If we were ahead on the score, especially if we couldn’t use all four points for a doubled gammon, we might prefer just running because it’s less complicating, and so is less likely to lead to gammons either way. Running can’t be awful here either, but trying for more than just getting one guy out of his board appears more natural from one point behind on the score.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---bAd-b--A-:0:0:-1:32:4:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout16/1*eq: +0.015
Player:
Opponent:
49.26% (G:17.20% B:0.61%)
50.74% (G:13.12% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.002...+0.027) - [64.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 13/11eq: +0.011 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
49.93% (G:15.58% B:0.83%)
50.07% (G:13.35% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.002...+0.024) - [34.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 24/21eq: -0.001 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
49.52% (G:13.63% B:0.57%)
50.48% (G:12.21% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.011...+0.010) - [1.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
4.Rollout113/8eq: -0.011 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
49.43% (G:14.43% B:0.55%)
50.57% (G:12.58% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.022...+0.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68643906
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 13/11.

The slightly best reply to an opening 63 24/18 13/10 with 32 is to play 24/21 13/11, duplicating 6’s and 4’s and unstacking the mid point while going for my own anchor. With my 4 point made, I think the same play is still best. After 24/21, I could play 6/4, but that creates a dilly building while leaving only one spare on my 6 point. This could be correct if it left two spares remaining on my 6 point.

Another option since I have my 4 point made, and since my opponents missing 6’s and 4’s could be quite bad, especially 4 dances, is to hit loose 6/1*. But I doubt that is best with just 8 checkers in the zone.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 158
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--bAd-b--A-:0:0:1:65:4:5:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-04-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 86
             
11 point match
              pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBDaCC---a-----aababbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:87.72% (G:2.23% B:0.02%)88.33% (G:2.24% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:12.28% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)11.67% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.777+1.643
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.992 (-0.008)±0.001 (+0.991..+0.993)
     Double/Take:+1.594 (+0.594)±0.004 (+1.590..+1.598)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68643906
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] Double
[ 4] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

When there’s a market loss this huge, we have to consider, at least for a moment, whether we might be too good to double. I did think about it here, but not for very long. We have only a few rolls that start a potential gammon parlay, and on rolls where we can’t attack safely, we risk regaining our market on his big doubles. Add that most of our attacking rolls don’t give us much chance at a gammon even if we roll them, and it looks as though we should just take the point.


Neil Kazaross passes.


USBGF Members win 1 point. Neil Kazaross leads 6-away/7-away.



Neil Kazaross: 42 8/4 6/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 161
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 4

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:63:4:5:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-31

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBbCCB-B------aac-bbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:69.05% (G:1.48% B:0.02%)69.22% (G:1.44% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:30.95% (G:0.76% B:0.01%)30.78% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.388+0.793
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.649±0.008 (+0.641..+0.657)
     Double/Take:+0.619 (-0.029)±0.009 (+0.610..+0.629)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.351)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28566445
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] No Double
[ 3] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

As before, I don’t see us having any threats that are serious enough to justify a double now. It can easily go bad from here if we lose our race lead and perhaps end up with the worse distribution as well. If so, we don’t want him owning the cube, not only because he might throw it back, but because we will have lost our opportunity to possibly find an efficient cube later on that he has to pass. You know, like the one last game that he gave us and that I wanted to take anyway :0)

This isn’t the kind of position where we tend to have massive regrets if things go well and we lose our market. If one of our few market-losing sequences happens, at least we get to keep the point we score on the double-out, and we won’t have let a potential doubled gammon slip away.



USBGF Members: 66 10/4(2) 8/2(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBDbCC---------aac-bbbb-:0:0:-1:61:3:5:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout18/2 6/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.84% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
88.16% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [12.5%]
Duration: 17 minutes 26 seconds
2.playedRollout120/14 6/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.90% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
88.10% (G:2.28% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [12.5%]
Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout17/1 6/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.14% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
88.86% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [12.5%]
Duration: 16 minutes 29 seconds
4.Rollout18/2 7/6eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.78% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
89.22% (G:0.94% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [12.5%]
Duration: 14 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout18/1eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.63% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
89.37% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [12.5%]
Duration: 13 minutes 58 seconds
6.Rollout120/14 7/6eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.88% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
89.12% (G:1.95% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.003...-0.997) - [12.5%]
Duration: 11 minutes 36 seconds
7.Rollout120/13eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.92% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
89.08% (G:2.21% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [12.5%]
Duration: 13 minutes 54 seconds
8.Rollout120/14 8/7eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.75% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
89.25% (G:2.22% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.002...-0.998) - [12.5%]
Duration: 10 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 68643906
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/14 6/5.

I’ll play 20/14 6/5, not wasting pips and attempting to close my board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 86
             
11 point match
              pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBDaCC---a-----aababbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-30

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:42:3:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout17/3 4/2eq: +0.595
Player:
Opponent:
67.46% (G:1.23% B:0.02%)
32.54% (G:0.65% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.586...+0.604) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.Rollout17/1eq: +0.560 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
66.61% (G:1.34% B:0.02%)
33.39% (G:0.88% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.552...+0.569) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
3.Rollout16/2 4/2eq: +0.546 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
66.31% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
33.69% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.538...+0.555) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
4.Rollout18/6 8/4eq: +0.540 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
66.18% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
33.82% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.532...+0.549) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85172974
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 7/3 4/2
[ 3] 10/8 10/6
[ 2] 6/2 4/2


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/3 4/2

I think this one will be unanimous: The checkers just fall naturally into place with 7/3, completing our started point in the line, and 4/2, starting the next one. Keeping his anchor blocked as well as we can has to be thematic here. Don’t give him safe double-jumps with his big rolls that also get him off to a good start in close race! Instead, we need to build our board and hope that later on, he’s either forced off with one checker, or crashes and so wastes pips in the race.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBbCCBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:-1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout116/8eq: -0.649
Player:
Opponent:
30.88% (G:0.73% B:0.01%)
69.12% (G:1.42% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.652...-0.646) - [99.6%]
Duration: 8 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout116/11 7/4eq: -0.655 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
30.72% (G:0.68% B:0.01%)
69.28% (G:1.51% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.658...-0.652) - [0.4%]
Duration: 7 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout116/11 6/3eq: -0.658 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
30.54% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
69.46% (G:1.49% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.661...-0.655) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 47 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85172974
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/8.

I’ll play 16/8, keeping 3 builders for my 5 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 91
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBbCCB-B------aac-bbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-29

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:69.99% (G:1.50% B:0.02%)70.30% (G:1.47% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:30.01% (G:0.67% B:0.01%)29.70% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.409+0.842
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.673 (-0.003)±0.003 (+0.670..+0.676)
xg Double/Take:+0.676±0.004 (+0.672..+0.680)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.324)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85172974
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:85.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 hours 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] No Double
[11] Double


Mary Hickey recommends: No Double

I don’t quite see a cube for us here. This is exactly the kind of cube Neil wants at the score, an easy one with about as little gammon-juice as you can find in a contact position, and with the race quite close if we don’t hit him. I think we can risk a few market losers in order to send a cube later on that we can hope won’t be what Neil calls a “huge, honking take”. This one’s honking like an 18-wheeler on black ice! Next turn, maybe not so much.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:42:3:5:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 109
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACcCBB-B--B----bb-bbbb-:0:0:1:33:3:5:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/7(2)eq: +0.588
Player:
Opponent:
67.21% (G:1.52% B:0.03%)
32.79% (G:0.70% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.584...+0.591) - [99.4%]
Duration: 6 hours 57 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/7 6/3eq: +0.582 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
66.97% (G:1.55% B:0.03%)
33.03% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.578...+0.585) - [0.6%]
Duration: 6 hours 50 minutes
3.Rollout213/10 13/7 4/1eq: +0.568 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
66.76% (G:1.72% B:0.03%)
33.24% (G:0.88% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.560...+0.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 23 seconds
4.Rollout213/10(2) 6/3 4/1eq: +0.565 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
66.37% (G:1.67% B:0.02%)
33.63% (G:0.91% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.557...+0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout213/10 13/4eq: +0.562 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
66.51% (G:1.47% B:0.03%)
33.49% (G:0.73% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.554...+0.570) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 14 seconds
6.Rollout213/10(2) 4/1(2)eq: +0.548 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
65.89% (G:1.60% B:0.03%)
34.11% (G:0.89% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.541...+0.556) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47733525
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47733525
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 13/7(2)
[ 4] 13/10 13/7 6/3
[ 1] 10/7 10/4 6/3
[ 1] 10/7(2) 6/3 4/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/10 13/7 6/3

I don’t see much difference between 13/10 13/7 6/3 and the simple 13/7(2), but I voted for the former to prevent his getting any ideas about stepping out with a 41. We want to close in on a recube, so we definitely don’t want him running that third checker — we want him to start crashing!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACcCDB-B-------bb-bbbb-:0:0:-1:41:3:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout120/16 7/6eq: -0.677
Player:
Opponent:
29.75% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)
70.25% (G:1.39% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.686...-0.669) - [20.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout17/3 6/5eq: -0.757 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
27.94% (G:0.44% B:0.01%)
72.06% (G:1.47% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.766...-0.748) - [20.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout120/16 6/5eq: -0.758 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
28.73% (G:1.92% B:0.03%)
71.27% (G:3.46% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.767...-0.749) - [20.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout17/6 7/3eq: -0.776 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
27.52% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
72.48% (G:1.64% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.784...-0.767) - [20.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 43 seconds
5.Rollout17/2eq: -0.779 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
27.52% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)
72.48% (G:1.54% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.787...-0.770) - [20.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47733525
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/16 7/6.

7/6 brings a checker to a good spot in my board. 20/16 attempts to escape my spare at the cost of a few shots that my opponents may not even want to hit with some rolls that can.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 130
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABcCBB-B-aB-a--ac-bbb-A:0:0:1:21:3:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.316
Player:
Opponent:
43.08% (G:7.22% B:0.47%)
56.92% (G:18.12% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.327...-0.306) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 3/1eq: -0.350 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
42.56% (G:6.80% B:0.29%)
57.44% (G:19.32% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.361...-0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47733525
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/24 6/4
[ 7] b/24 3/1


Mary Hickey recommends: b/24 6/4

The ace is forced, and we’re fine with that because what we really didn’t want was to stay out! Now we have to decide between creating a dilly builder or kicking our slotted checker down to the ace point. Since we may need as good a board as we can achieve in this game where there’s still plenty of contact, and we may also have to think about wastage avoidance if the game turns into a race, I’ll go with the dilly, bar/24 6/4 even though I don’t like dillies any better than the seven people who voted for the other play do. At least this checker is unlikely to have an opportunity to help build the better 5 point any time in the foreseeable future.



Neil Kazaross: 62 13/7 10/8
USBGF Members: 43 24/17*
Neil Kazaross: 54 b/16
USBGF Members: 65 17/6
Neil Kazaross: 55 16/1 6/1


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 109
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACcCBB-B--B----bb-bbbb-:0:0:1:33:3:5:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 145
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BcBBC-B-bCa--b-c-bbA--:0:0:1:32:3:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout123/18eq: -0.011
Player:
Opponent:
51.37% (G:5.26% B:0.26%)
48.63% (G:13.07% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.021...-0.001) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
2.playedRollout113/10 8/6eq: -0.053 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
50.18% (G:5.94% B:0.23%)
49.82% (G:13.04% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.063...-0.042) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
3.Rollout123/20 8/6eq: -0.063 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
50.02% (G:6.58% B:0.30%)
49.98% (G:15.22% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.073...-0.052) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
4.Rollout113/8eq: -0.076 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
49.76% (G:5.92% B:0.20%)
50.24% (G:13.65% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.086...-0.066) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 13/10 8/6
[12] 23/18


Mary Hickey recommends: 23/18

Of course I have an advantage in analyzing this one, having seen the results because I was away during the actual vote. So I’ll start by saying that this close vote doesn’t surprise me, because it appears to me to be a very difficult problem, not at all obvious despite the wrong play being an 04 error. I don’t think there’s an overarching principle hiding here, because small tweaks could swing this one to the side of caution. Maybe the take-away is not to dismiss a dangerous attempt at running when doing so is your primary strategic objective.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 145
             
11 point match
              pip: 135
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BcCBB-C-bBa--b-c-bbA--:0:0:-1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout111/3eq: -0.113
Player:
Opponent:
45.84% (G:10.48% B:0.27%)
54.16% (G:5.89% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.122...-0.104) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.144 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
45.07% (G:9.49% B:0.22%)
54.93% (G:5.45% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.153...-0.136) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/3.

I have a difficult choice to make and there’s only two plays to consider. Breaking the mid point for builders is a natural play that can lead to a pretty position if I can make my 5 point next turn or failing that my bar point. However this play has some defects as I will be faced with a nasty cube after being hit with 6 rolls. My mid point still has value in a holding game, and I certainly want it next turn if the USBGF Members roll 65 or even 41 since I then get an ace shot.

So this leaves 11/3. I don’t like dilly builders, but this is some more firepower to aim at the checker on my 2 point that will often remain there next turn. When one doesn’t really want to be hit, one should consider leaving no blots. By leaving no blots this turn I don’t have to worry about them next turn should I roll a number that can run my spare from my 20 point.

Note that had my opponents stepped up to my 5 point, I’d hit loose with the 3, as I have a 3 point board and that play could soon be decisive if it works. But attacking on a point so my opponents don’t just run away is often better than just having some builders that might make that point next time.

So I will play cautiously here with 11/3.



USBGF Members: 61 10/3
Neil Kazaross: 61 8/2* 3/2
USBGF Members: 61 b/18


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 130
             
11 point match
              pip: 123
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABcCBB-B-bB---aAc-bbb--:0:0:-1:31:3:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout113/10 8/7*eq: +0.267
Player:
Opponent:
54.64% (G:21.90% B:0.62%)
45.36% (G:7.95% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.254...+0.279) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout18/7* 7/4eq: +0.153 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
51.81% (G:17.66% B:0.39%)
48.19% (G:6.62% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.142...+0.164) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47733525
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 8/7*.

Now that my opponents have a blot in their board and I have a 4 point board, I think I need to make a decisive move to try to put the game away. So after hitting 8/7*, that means 13/10 which leaves me much better placed to make my key 5 and/or 7 points than the wimpy 7/4. If I get hit I will have usually have plenty of return shots. If the USBGF Members roll 55 from the bar, no play I can make is good.

13/10 8/7* looks to be clear, since if I wimp 7/4 I am unlikely to make any key new points soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 130
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABcCBB-B-aB-a--ac-bbb-A:0:0:1:21:3:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AAbCBC-B-bB--bbac-b--aA:0:0:1:61:3:5:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/24* 24/18*eq: +0.326
Player:
Opponent:
56.80% (G:14.39% B:0.57%)
43.20% (G:12.63% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.315...+0.338) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24* 10/4eq: -0.046 (-0.372)
Player:
Opponent:
47.73% (G:13.00% B:0.54%)
52.27% (G:13.87% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.057...-0.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/24*/18*
[ 8] b/24* 10/4


Mary Hickey recommends:

The double hit is clear, for many reasons! 1. The “safe” alternative isn’t safe at all, since it still leaves direct 3s in our board and also opens up some indirects at our loose checker on the 10 point. It also leaves our back checker in danger of being blocked effectively enough that he won’t need a second checker all that badly. So might as well make the bold play, if the safe play costs us a good blocking point and isn’t even safe! 2. The double hit gets our back checker a giant step farther down the road for home. That advantage might be negated if he hits us, but that hasn’t happened yet. When an opponent is a favorite to hit, doesn’t mean they will. 3) OK, what if one of our inner board blots does get hit this turn? It’s still very much in the game, and so are we. Meanwhile, the checker that hit it will be semi-trapped behind our block, which we kept strong by not breaking our 10 point.



Neil Kazaross: 63 b/22*
USBGF Members: 32 b/22 6/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 173
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--aBbBBC-B-bB--bbAc-bA---:0:0:-1:22:3:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 22/20 9/7*(2)eq: -0.158
Player:
Opponent:
46.61% (G:12.35% B:0.48%)
53.39% (G:11.65% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.170...-0.146) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 9/7* 7/3*eq: -0.300 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
44.39% (G:13.56% B:0.61%)
55.61% (G:15.77% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.313...-0.286) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 22/20 9/7*(2).

I am certainly hitting 9/7*. Now I look at that position and find two more 2’s to play. One choice is 7/3* trying to blitz. But with 4 checkers stuck back and only 9 in the zone, this will often fail. Better is 9/7, making my bar point and my own block while playing 22/20 giving me 6’s and 4’s to free that critical spare checker.



USBGF Members: 44 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 165
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BcBBC-B-bB---bbc-bA--A:0:0:-1:22:3:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.Rollout113/11(2) 7/5(2)eq: +0.126
Player:
Opponent:
51.97% (G:17.15% B:0.63%)
48.03% (G:9.05% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.121...+0.131) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 hours 06 minutes
2.playedRollout17/3*(2)eq: +0.112 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
51.30% (G:19.54% B:0.74%)
48.70% (G:9.67% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.107...+0.118) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 34 minutes
3.Rollout213/9(2)eq: +0.073 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
51.81% (G:15.44% B:0.70%)
48.19% (G:10.44% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.060...+0.086) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/3*(2).

This is a good outcome for me. This time I will use the method of playing doubles two checkers at a time. So lets start with 13/11(2) and compare 11/9(2) vs 7/5(2). I think making my 5 point is superior. If I make the 9 point, I still have my 5 point open and have given up my mid point with 4 checkers blocked back. Making my 9 point will often lead to me making more points but it seems better just to make the 5 point to me.

Now since I am making the 5 point lets compare the attacking 5/3*(2) to 13/11(2). Note that last turn I disdained the blitzing play in favor of a positional play but here I can attack and have a 3 point board with no blots. 25% of the time both checkers will remain on the bar and another 50% of the time one will still be on the bar after my opponents roll.

The positional approach keeping my 5 point looks good as well, but the slight defect of not having my mid pt with 4 checkers back concerns me a bit.

I can’t resist the attacking with 7/3*(2), as gammons still pay double.



USBGF Members: 52 b/23 b/20


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 157
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BcBBC-B-bB---b-cAbbA--:0:0:-1:43:3:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout120/13eq: -0.159
Player:
Opponent:
44.98% (G:12.13% B:0.42%)
55.02% (G:8.26% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.169...-0.149) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
2.Rollout123/16eq: -0.185 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
44.65% (G:10.66% B:0.39%)
55.35% (G:8.53% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.195...-0.174) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
3.Rollout18/5* 6/2*eq: -0.316 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:
43.84% (G:15.84% B:0.49%)
56.16% (G:17.65% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.331...-0.301) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/13.

My 4 must be played 20/16 to start freeing blocked checkers before I end up being forced to break points that I want to currently keep. Then I think 16/13 is best as I really don’t need to be hit and I want another checker closer to my board in case I can attack. This spare on my mid point may also allow me to safely hit in the outfield next roll.



USBGF Members: 61 20/13


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BbBBC-B-cC---b-c-bbA--:0:0:-1:32:3:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout123/20 13/11eq: -0.112
Player:
Opponent:
45.92% (G:10.86% B:0.24%)
54.08% (G:5.93% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.122...-0.102) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
2.Rollout123/20 6/4eq: -0.192 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
43.62% (G:9.08% B:0.17%)
56.38% (G:5.21% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.202...-0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
3.Rollout113/8eq: -0.286 (-0.174)
Player:
Opponent:
41.83% (G:10.27% B:0.25%)
58.17% (G:7.36% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.296...-0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/20 13/11.

A decent roll as I can prepare to spring my last spare with 23/20 and create a builder and some outfield coverage with 13/11 at the cost of 4 painful shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 145
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BcBBC-B-bCa--b-c-bbA--:0:0:1:32:3:5:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bDBD-B-bB--bc-d-b--A-:0:0:1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout18/3 6/4eq: -0.269
Player:
Opponent:
43.94% (G:6.06% B:0.29%)
56.06% (G:13.97% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.274...-0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 13 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 8/3eq: -0.284 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
44.15% (G:6.33% B:0.29%)
55.85% (G:16.87% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.288...-0.279) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 09 minutes
3.Rollout28/6 8/3eq: -0.333 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
42.23% (G:6.08% B:0.24%)
57.77% (G:15.12% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.343...-0.323) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
4.Rollout28/1eq: -0.348 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
41.74% (G:5.90% B:0.22%)
58.26% (G:15.39% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.358...-0.338) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 8/3 6/4
[ 3] 24/22 8/3
[ 1] 8/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/3 6/4

Stepping up with 24/22 doesn’t do much for us, since it doesn’t gain any more direct escaping numbers than we have now. It’s not all bad, because it hinders his rolling that 9 point into the bar or 5 point, but it’s also risky because his anchor enables him to attack without excessive worry of bad things like doubled gammons. Let’s look for something better!

Slotting two points behind his anchor may look kind of loose, but since the race is about even, and we have a good blocking structure, it’s unlikely he will use the opportunity our chaotic board provides to do anything much. We rate to cover at least one of them next time, if we can’t do something even better such as run our back man out.

Points behind his anchor will be good for the future of the game, especially when he has to leave his anchor later. Don’t believe a saying from the old days, that you don’t want to make points behind an anchor. What are those spare checkers on the 8 and 6 point supposed to do instead? Of course you want to use them to make points behind the anchor, and this roll lets us start the best two of them available. Start ’em now, finish ’em next time, and let him worry about them when we hit something, or he has to run a man from the anchor!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AAbCBC-B-bB--bc-d-b--A-:0:0:-1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout18/7 6/1*eq: +0.040
Player:
Opponent:
50.27% (G:15.37% B:0.48%)
49.73% (G:9.23% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.028...+0.052) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
2.Rollout19/4 8/7eq: -0.078 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
47.05% (G:12.77% B:0.42%)
52.95% (G:8.25% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.088...-0.068) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
3.Rollout19/4 6/5eq: -0.080 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
47.23% (G:12.06% B:0.42%)
52.77% (G:8.80% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.089...-0.070) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
4.Rollout113/7eq: -0.082 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:
47.30% (G:12.29% B:0.52%)
52.70% (G:8.42% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.092...-0.072) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
5.Rollout19/8 9/4eq: -0.105 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:
46.22% (G:8.51% B:0.19%)
53.78% (G:5.50% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.115...-0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/7 6/1*.

It is so important to try to make the best of a poor roll and too look at all 30 checkers. Here I see two blots in my opponents’ board, and unless I play 8/7 6/1*, I have to break a good point. Although if they return hit with an ace they can cover one blot, I need to risk that since passive alternatives look much worse. Note that the builder I put on my bar point can be used to attack or block.

8/7 6/1* is very clear.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AAbCBC-B-bB--bbac-b--aA:0:0:1:16:3:5:0:11:10
to play 16

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-D---cF-aab-d-b----:0:0:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout18/2*eq: -0.065
Player:
Opponent:
48.80% (G:9.34% B:0.50%)
51.20% (G:16.92% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.076...-0.053) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
2.Rollout18/7 6/1*eq: -0.125 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
47.62% (G:9.17% B:0.49%)
52.38% (G:18.13% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.137...-0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.playedRollout113/8 6/5eq: -0.136 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
47.66% (G:8.64% B:0.43%)
52.34% (G:17.53% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.147...-0.125) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
4.Rollout113/7eq: -0.183 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:
45.80% (G:8.81% B:0.50%)
54.20% (G:17.04% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.194...-0.172) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 13/8 6/5
[ 8] 8/2*
[ 1] 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/2*

This 51 is a dumb number, with no constructive options and no safe play either. We pretty much have to hit him, 8/2*, for the main reason that it takes half his roll and so stops him from doing things we don’t like at all, especially making his 5 point. This way, he can only do that with small and midsize doubles, and we were in trouble on those rolls anyway. Even if he hits us, we might roll something better next time, who knows?

Speaking of doubles, there is one other reason to hit in the early game when in doubt: What Marty Storer calls the “Boxcars Bonus”. A 66 is only one roll in 36 for him, but there’s no chance at all for him to stay out with it if we don’t hit him.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--AD-E---cE-aab-d-b----:0:0:-1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout123/20* 13/8eq: +0.381
Player:
Opponent:
58.06% (G:22.10% B:0.85%)
41.94% (G:8.56% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.376...+0.386) - [99.8%]
Duration: 13 hours 39 minutes
2.playedRollout123/20* 20/15eq: +0.370 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
58.58% (G:18.85% B:0.64%)
41.42% (G:8.61% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.365...+0.375) - [0.1%]
Duration: 13 hours 51 minutes
3.Rollout123/20* 9/4eq: +0.368 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
57.98% (G:21.14% B:0.74%)
42.02% (G:8.22% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.363...+0.373) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 07 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/20*/15.

After hitting 23/20*, I have two good choices for my 5. 13/8 is more aggressive as it looks to continue to go after the checker I just hit while maintaining a presence split in my opponents board in hopes of catching another checker or making their 5 point. 20/15 seems more natural as it comes forward and links to my outfield checkers. After 20/15, I don’t have to worry about loose hits on the 20 pt, but those only bother me if I roll a missing 6 from the bar.

13/8 strips my mid point, but that is only an issue if I get hit on my 9 point (4 rolls) and then when I enter I roll a number that breaks the no stripped mid point to return hit in my outfield. 13/8 also gives the USBGF Members some poor entering 4’s.

20/15 is clearly better if I get hit on the 9 pt and avoids a nasty 11 joker and also is better if they roll 65 hoping to escape.

However, I’d play to press my advantage with 13/8 if this were a gammon go type of score. However, it isn’t and therefore I will go with the play that looks most natural to me and note that I have a slight race lead now.

So 23/20*/15 is my choice after a lot of thought.



USBGF Members: 31 b/24 13/10*
Neil Kazaross: 66 no play
USBGF Members: 21 13/10
Neil Kazaross: 54 b/20 24/20
USBGF Members: 61 13/7 8/7


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 146
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bDBD-B-cB-aab-d-b--A-:0:0:-1:42:3:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/9 10/8eq: +0.137
Player:
Opponent:
52.51% (G:12.15% B:0.37%)
47.49% (G:4.97% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.128...+0.147) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: +0.087 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
51.22% (G:12.08% B:0.34%)
48.78% (G:5.49% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.076...+0.097) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 10/8.

This play is quite clear. 13/9 makes a useful point and then 10/8 lifts my blot to a point where I need builders since the 8 point will be part of any containment I can create between my 4 and 9 points. I will note that in spite of my advanced anchor in my opponents 1 point board that it is quite bad for me to be hit my side of the board here when the race is close and they have outfield points to shepherd their other checkers toward home.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bDBD-B-bB--bc-d-b--A-:0:0:1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa-Aa-dbb--A-:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:67.54% (G:33.83% B:1.98%)67.50% (G:35.88% B:2.06%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:32.46% (G:7.16% B:0.49%)32.50% (G:7.43% B:0.63%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.649+1.351
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.829 (-0.171)±0.005 (+0.824..+0.834)
xg Double/Take:+1.000 (+0.000)±0.007 (+0.994..+1.007)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14456148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:54.3%
Duration: 17 hours 09 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] Pass
[11] Take


Mary Hickey recommends: Take

Neil does have a lot going for him here! He’s ahead in the race, though not by a critical amount; he has the bigger board; and he’s got a double shot at us. That gives him all three parts of the PRaT triad: Position, Race, and Threats. Does that mean we have a pass? Yeah, unless some or all of his PRaT components are wishy-washy, or we have significant Counterplay to fight back. Here, his PRaT components look strong, and the gammon threat is real, but we do have some pennies in the pool if we can fish them out in time.

First, he may not hit us outside, and if so, we may either be shooting at him or running our back man unimpeded into our own outerboard to start some counterplay against his two back men–unless we can do something even better, of course. Also if he doesn’t hit us, there will be a few variations where we catch up in the race and win even with nobody hitting anybody.

Second, if he does hit us, we still might bounce into a deep-anchor game with long-term winning chances, or hit an indirect return shot from the bar and get some traction from there.

We won’t be fully committed to any deep anchor game we get into, either, since there are always big doubles that allow us to shift into a holding game, or again, even win the race. The odds are against those big doubles on any one roll, but the odds shift a long way if we get a dozen or more tries!

And in all these cases, our chances of getting off an effective recube have to be decent. These redoubles will be especially powerful if we have developed any gammon threat of our own, because it’s an 11 point match, we’re now at 3, and so an 8-point win would let us win out with perfect efficiency.

So much for the good stuff…what about all the gammons he might win? Yes, they are a big worry, since he already has nine in the Zone and a top-three board. That’s not a threat we can ignore, and it may be strong enough that we should pass. I’m not going to fall off my Stability Ball in surprise if that’s the case, but I’m taking anyway because I think we have enough going for us to do so. YMMV, though, since my tendency is to take bad doubles more often than I pass takes.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

The USBGF Members’ 63 play was the only play to leave with a position where they could think about taking this cube. I have the best 3 point board and will be hitting with every roll except 63 which plays fine for me: 24/18 11/8. I have a racing lead as well as blitzing or blocking threats. The only reason to take is that I have both my checkers back on the 24 point so that if the readers survive what I throw at them they may turn it around with a good roll or two.

Is this enough for them to have a take? I’d pass at an even score in a long match for sure, but the score will matter somewhat here if the readers can turn this around and send me a 4 cube as I will have a somewhat higher take point than normal. Is this enough for a score-based take? I don’t know, but I suspect that this is technically a pass still.

Does reader collective skill factor mean much here? Well, currently my position is a bit more difficult to play but all I have to do usually is to hit for a couple of turns so it isn’t that difficult. If I close out the readers then any skill difference doesn’t matter, but if the readers survive my attack they still have to play the game from an inferior and often difficult position. My opinion remains that this is a practical flip a coin decision for them. It is wonderful to be able to cube when you absolutely don’t care from a perceived match equity standpoint whether your opponents take or pass. But then again, my 44 was a real joker leading to this.



Neil Kazaross wins 1 point and leads 6-away/8-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:32:3:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedBook124/21 13/11eq: -0.057
Player:
Opponent:
50.08% (G:14.22% B:0.83%)
49.92% (G:13.85% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.060...-0.053) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/22 13/10eq: -0.066 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
49.74% (G:14.17% B:0.79%)
50.26% (G:13.86% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.070...-0.062) - [0.0%]
3.Book113/11 13/10eq: -0.072 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
49.61% (G:15.72% B:0.94%)
50.39% (G:14.57% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.076...-0.067) - [0.0%]
 
1 Generated by Steven Carey on 8/10/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 13/11.

I almost always play 32 24/21 13/11 unless well behind in the match where I would be seeking more gammonish positions.



USBGF Members: 65 24/13


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C---dFa--c-e----A-:0:0:-1:54:3:5:0:11:10
to play 54

1.xgRollout124/20 13/8eq: -0.161
Player:
Opponent:
47.09% (G:11.38% B:0.56%)
52.91% (G:12.06% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.166...-0.156) - [99.4%]
Duration: 15 hours 26 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 6/1*eq: -0.170 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
46.62% (G:11.83% B:0.40%)
53.38% (G:11.99% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.175...-0.165) - [0.6%]
Duration: 17 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout124/15eq: -0.172 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
47.28% (G:10.08% B:0.44%)
52.72% (G:12.90% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.176...-0.167) - [0.1%]
Duration: 16 hours 07 minutes
4.playedRollout121/16 13/9eq: -0.183 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
46.99% (G:11.91% B:0.50%)
53.01% (G:13.36% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.188...-0.178) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 12 minutes
5.Rollout213/9 13/8eq: -0.186 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
46.44% (G:13.25% B:0.60%)
53.56% (G:13.19% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.197...-0.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
6.Rollout224/20 21/16eq: -0.191 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
47.08% (G:9.46% B:0.47%)
52.92% (G:13.04% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.203...-0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/16 13/9.

While I know many 3rd roll plays, I can’t claim to know this one. So I’ll take my shot at figuring it out looking at possible plays.

1) 24/15 is linked in the outfield, but I don’t like the diversified double hitting rolls. A similar idea with 24/20 21/16 looks worse.

2) 24/20 13/8 looks OK but vulnerable to an attack and I am sure that the USBGF Members won’t hesitate to double hit my blots that are on key points in their board. I fear too much downside if I don’t roll well from the bar.

3) 24/20 6/1* is an idea to try to protect my checkers on the 20 and 21 points, but this just doesn’t look like a good play to me.

4) I can try to stay out of serious immediate trouble with 21/16 13/9. If I am hitting with an 8 or 64 I have return shots. But I don’t like allowing my opponents to unstack their heavy mid point by hitting with 4’s. If I don’t get hit, I have a position that can easily improve over the next couple of rolls.

No play really accomplishes much and all have downsides. I will try 21/16 13/9 with this poor roll.



USBGF Members: 64 24/14*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 146
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----E-Ca--cFA-ac-e------:0:0:-1:62:3:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 16/10eq: -0.577
Player:
Opponent:
36.32% (G:7.69% B:0.24%)
63.68% (G:11.19% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.587...-0.567) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/7eq: -0.612 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
36.60% (G:8.42% B:0.34%)
63.40% (G:15.02% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.623...-0.601) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 9/3eq: -0.638 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
35.68% (G:8.53% B:0.35%)
64.32% (G:14.98% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.648...-0.627) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 16/10.

16/10 gets out of harms way and prepares to build up my board.



USBGF Members: 51 14/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 159
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-D---cF-aac-e------:0:0:-1:42:3:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.415
Player:
Opponent:
39.67% (G:9.72% B:0.35%)
60.33% (G:9.55% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.425...-0.405) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: -0.472 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
38.62% (G:8.98% B:0.35%)
61.38% (G:10.73% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.482...-0.461) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout123/21 13/9eq: -0.488 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
38.18% (G:7.77% B:0.32%)
61.82% (G:10.13% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.498...-0.478) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/4.

The USBGF Members have escaped their two runners but still have what I call a 3 tower position, as they are all stacked on their 6, 8, and 13 points. I am substantially behind in the race. In general is clear for me to remain far back in my opponents board in this type of position. Therefore, my back checkers are fine where they are and I’ll just make my 4 point and get ready to hopefully hit next roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-D---cF-aab-d-b----:0:0:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 166
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--a-dbb--AA:0:0:1:63:3:4:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.963
Player:
Opponent:
32.40% (G:7.54% B:0.66%)
67.60% (G:34.37% B:2.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.979...-0.948) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 11/5eq: -1.000 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
31.06% (G:7.11% B:0.62%)
68.94% (G:36.54% B:2.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.011...-0.989) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -1.000 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
30.96% (G:7.16% B:0.54%)
69.04% (G:37.80% B:4.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-1.013...-0.987) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/22 24/18eq: -1.000 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
30.30% (G:6.65% B:0.52%)
69.70% (G:40.32% B:2.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-1.012...-0.988) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 14456148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/16
[ 6] b/22 13/7
[ 3] b/22 11/5
[ 2] b/22 24/18


Mary Hickey recommends: b/16

None of our plays look good. Staying back in his board leaves him in a situation where he can roll his prime forward at the same time that he hits us, which isn’t good at all because he has enough builders to carry out a serious blocking threat, maybe even a closeout, if we don’t perform prontissimo. That would be pretty bad in itself, but it’s worse because we aren’t allowed to just pass on the 6–and every other way we can play it other than jumping out looks worse! The best of the bad lot might be 11/5, since it creates no new blots, and might allow us to end up with our 5 point when the dust settles. I don’t do that, though…I jump out 22/16, hope we aren’t hit, and then next turn run that checker to our own outer board, hoping he can help us build some kind of blocking structure of our own.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa-Aa-dbb--A-:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2017-03-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:32:3:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/21 13/11eq: -0.203
Player:
Opponent:
44.70% (G:11.74% B:0.69%)
55.30% (G:17.66% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.215...-0.191) - [94.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 06 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 13/10eq: -0.217 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
44.09% (G:11.94% B:0.56%)
55.91% (G:17.92% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.229...-0.206) - [4.3%]
Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 6/4eq: -0.225 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
44.03% (G:12.57% B:0.77%)
55.97% (G:18.90% B:1.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.239...-0.211) - [0.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 13/10eq: -0.226 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
43.90% (G:13.16% B:0.69%)
56.10% (G:18.19% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.237...-0.215) - [0.2%]
Duration: 5 hours 04 minutes
5.Rollout124/22 24/21eq: -0.232 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
44.17% (G:10.98% B:0.64%)
55.83% (G:17.94% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.243...-0.220) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 08 minutes
6.Rollout113/11 8/5eq: -0.284 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
43.07% (G:12.18% B:0.61%)
56.93% (G:18.86% B:1.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.297...-0.271) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40624827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/21 13/11
[ 6] 13/11 13/10
[ 4] 24/22 13/10
[ 1] 13/11 8/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/21 13/11

24/21 13/11 is the “book” answer, and I don’t see any reason to make an exception here. If he makes his 5 point, we want to be split so we can anchor and prevent ourselves being blocked in, and the builder on the 11 point is likely to be useful later.

BTW I agree with Neil about slotting at most scores with an opening 21, including many where the bot recommends switching over to splitting wit the ace. For example (I just checked to make sure the answer hadn’t changed!) if we were 4-0 in a match to 11, that is, 7a11a–the bot says split with an opening 21. Seriously? You won’t see me switching over with a score difference that small. I understand why at 2a11a and 3a11a we want to split, because we’re shooting for games that are less gammonish since we can’t use all four of the points on a doubled game, but earlier on, naah, bots schmots!

The bot makes it pick-’em at 8a11a and 9a11a, with a slight pull toward splitting.

But circling back to today’s problem, the book answer makes sense, so we can just roll with it.



Neil Kazaross: 44 13/5 8/4*(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 166
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--a-dbb--AA:0:0:1:63:3:4:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 18
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABA---------------dbcb-:1:-1:1:61:1:4:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout15/Off 2/1eq: +0.997
Player:
Opponent:
99.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.997...+0.997) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3.6 seconds
2.Rollout15/Off 4/3eq: +0.997 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
99.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.997...+0.997) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.2 seconds
3.Rollout15/Off 3/2eq: +0.996 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
99.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.996...+0.996) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.7 seconds
4.Rollout15/Offeq: +0.995 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
99.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.995...+0.995) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.8 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40624827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 5/0 2/1
[ 5] 5/0 4/3
[ 1] 5/0 5/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/0 2/1

Now 5/off 2/1 looks to be best, catering to those (x,1) vs (x,2) endings. When you don’t make a play like this one in the final stages, it tends to be because you have badness involving the smaller doubles, and here that’s not the case; 22 and 33 both get two checkers off after we play 2/1. We even get a bonus on double 1, which then gets two men off, but it doesn’t after 4/3. The only downside I see is that after 2/1, we don’t get two off with 32. That isn’t a big enough deal to push me off the standard ending play in the absence of recube possibilities (and often even when those possibilities exist): 5/off 2/1.



Neil Kazaross: 52 4/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 33 4/1 4/0 3/0

USBGF Members win two points. Neil Kazaross leads 7-away/8-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:21:3:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedBook113/11 6/5eq: -0.049
Player:
Opponent:
50.35% (G:14.47% B:0.72%)
49.65% (G:14.39% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.053...-0.045) - [77.9%]
2.Book124/23 13/11eq: -0.051 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
49.93% (G:14.21% B:0.70%)
50.07% (G:13.64% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.055...-0.048) - [22.1%]
 
1 Generated by Steven Carey on 8/11/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 6/5.

I almost always slot an opening 21.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:32:3:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 41
             
11 point match
              pip: 33
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABD-------------a-ebcc-:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout15/Off 2/1eq: +0.929
Player:
Opponent:
96.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.928...+0.929) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout15/Off 4/3eq: +0.928 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.927...+0.928) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
3.playedRollout15/4 5/Offeq: +0.928 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.927...+0.928) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69344051
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 5/0 5/4
[ 8] 5/0 2/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/0 5/4

One more hair to split! I like 5/off 5/4, avoiding weirdness where we roll a bunch of tiny numbers and somehow end up with a stack on our 5 point at the end. Still, it’s hard to see why there’d be much difference between this play and the entirely reasonable 5/off 2/1, which caters to endings where our last two checkers are arranged (x, 1) instead the less favorable (x,2), and he’s rolled enough doubles that it matters.

Which asteroid are you more worried will hit our game? Vote accordingly :0)



Neil Kazaross: 41 4/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 64 5/0 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 51 6/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 18
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABA---------------dbcb-:1:-1:1:61:1:4:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 3/8 135p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-03-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 58
             
11 point match
              pip: 46
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---CCE-------aa------ebcc-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout14/Off 3/2eq: +0.885
Player:
Opponent:
94.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.885...+0.886) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds
2.Rollout15/Offeq: +0.884 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
94.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.884...+0.884) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26357969
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 4/0 3/2
[14] 5/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 4/0 3/2

Another play that can’t matter very much. I went with 4/off 3/2 to diversify, but would not have done so if it left only one checker on the 4 point, risking a gap there. Of course it still might happen, but it’s not too likely. We have both 6s and 5s to remove checkers from the point above it, plus we might use an ace from it to restock the 4 point with another checker, so gapping doesn’t look like too great a danger. (And of course, we might gap there and not roll another 4–the gap won’t cost us if we don’t roll its number.)



Neil Kazaross: 54 12/8 11/6
USBGF Members: 63 5/0 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 53 8/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 41
             
11 point match
              pip: 33
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABD-------------a-ebcc-:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 74
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aCCF---a-----------ebcc-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout15/Offeq: +0.987
Player:
Opponent:
98.37% (G:2.06% B:0.02%)
1.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.987...+0.988) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31.6 seconds
2.Rollout15/4 5/1eq: +0.981 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
98.30% (G:1.66% B:0.01%)
1.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.981...+0.982) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.5 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26357969
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 5/0
[ 3] 5/4 5/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/0

The danger of our being hit and then losing the game if we leave “five on the end” by playing 5/off is a ghost that we can’t let scare us too much. He still can’t rebuild his board, so if we take four men off with a double–well, that’s four more men off, improving our chances for the win after a hit, and also the chances for a long-shot gammon if he misses us.

I like 5/off, but once again I’m not going sad-panda on anybody who wants to play safe (especially if they turn out to be right, LOL), as long as they considered the pros and cons of both alternatives. This can’t be a huge difference, mainly because we’re trading off very small numbers–what Marty Storer calls “viglets”.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 74
             
11 point match
              pip: 46
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aCCE---a-----------ebcc-:1:-1:-1:44:1:4:0:11:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout123/15 16/8eq: -0.922
Player:
Opponent:
3.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.34% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.922...-0.922) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds
2.playedRollout123/11 16/12eq: -0.923 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.37% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.923...-0.922) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds
3.Rollout123/7eq: -0.929 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
3.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.67% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.930...-0.929) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26357969
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/11 16/12.

The gammon is saved now. If I ever am to win this game it starts with 66 next turn so I will maximize crossovers.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 58
             
11 point match
              pip: 46
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---CCE-------aa------ebcc-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 81
             
11 point match
              pip: 55
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCCDB--------------ebcc-:1:-1:1:11:1:4:0:11:10
to play 11

1.xgRollout15/3 1/Off(2)eq: +1.039
Player:
Opponent:
97.01% (G:9.45% B:0.19%)
2.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.038...+1.040) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 40 seconds
2.playedRollout16/5(2) 1/Off(2)eq: +1.034 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
98.18% (G:6.61% B:0.12%)
1.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.034...+1.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout15/4(2) 1/Off(2)eq: +1.032 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
97.16% (G:8.46% B:0.15%)
2.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.031...+1.032) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26357969
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 6/5(2) 1/0(2)
[ 7] 5/3 1/0(2)
[ 1] 5/4(2) 1/0(2)


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/3 1/0(2)

Taking two checkers off the ace point seems clear, since it’s better for getting a gammon…but also, for just the win! Remember what I’ve often said, and you know is true: “There’s no such thing as a won race!” A couple of big sets, and he could be back in contention here with his speedboard and owning the cube.

Well, then what? Taking a little extra risk of being hit if it gains some gammons makes sense to consider, especially at this score. And the best way to get a gammon is having him not escape for a while, if we can arrange that. This makes 5/3 pretty strong here, making his almost sure-save 44s into a null number, and giving him fewer double-jump rolls also. We don’t like those because they give us no chance to point on the one he leaves behind.

Playing 6/5(2) instead, because you are hearing Kit Woolsey intoning from somewhere out west, “A point cleared is a point not to be feared!” can’t be a terrible play, but I just don’t think it’s quite “forcing” enough given the score. If he had a bigger board, I might go that route, but then again maybe not if he had only two checkers on whatever the higher point was. Then his smaller 4s would break that point, and that would be good, too.

So it looks to me like 5/3 1/off(2) is the way to go, reaching for a few more gammons.



Neil Kazaross: 43 23/16


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 74
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aCCF---a-----------ebcc-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 66
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBDC--A-----a--a-acbbc-:1:-1:1:65:1:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout19/4 6/Offeq: +1.014
Player:
Opponent:
95.60% (G:10.32% B:0.15%)
4.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.012...+1.017) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 5/Offeq: +0.981 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
94.54% (G:9.59% B:0.14%)
5.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.979...+0.984) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout19/3 6/1eq: +0.934 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
93.79% (G:7.03% B:0.07%)
6.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.932...+0.936) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54419437
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 9/4 6/0
[ 6] 9/3 5/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 9/4 6/0

9/4 6/off is standard here. We like having diverse spares, and we want to prepare to clear from the back, so there’s nothing not to like with this play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 55
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCCDB--------a--a-acbbc-:1:-1:-1:33:1:4:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout110/4 7/4 5/2eq: -1.047
Player:
Opponent:
2.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.02% (G:10.16% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.047...-1.046) - [99.4%]
Duration: 29 minutes 38 seconds
2.xgRollout110/1 7/4eq: -1.048 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.92% (G:10.46% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.049...-1.047) - [0.6%]
Duration: 30 minutes 40 seconds
3.Rollout110/1 4/1eq: -1.055 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
3.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.73% (G:11.56% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.056...-1.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout110/1 5/2eq: -1.061 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
2.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.05% (G:11.35% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.061...-1.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 20 seconds
5.Rollout17/1 5/2 4/1eq: -1.087 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
2.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.06% (G:13.67% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.087...-1.086) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75405437
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4 7/4 5/2.

Since I need to run a checker next turn if I roll large enough to do so to try to save the gammon, I see no need to save a 6 now nor to leave a blot in my board that can’t be covered easily.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 81
             
11 point match
              pip: 55
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCCDB--------------ebcc-:1:-1:1:11:1:4:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 71
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBCB-BA--a--aa----cbbc-:1:-1:1:32:1:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/6 8/5eq: +0.959
Player:
Opponent:
92.42% (G:11.81% B:0.40%)
7.58% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.956...+0.962) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout19/4eq: +0.870 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
90.00% (G:9.01% B:0.23%)
10.00% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.867...+0.873) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout19/6 3/1eq: +0.848 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
89.75% (G:7.77% B:0.14%)
10.25% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.845...+0.851) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81166113
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 8/6 8/5
[ 5] 9/4
[ 2] 9/6 3/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/6 8/5

We aren’t the ones that benefit from further contact, which suggests that clearing the 8 point will be correct unless it’s quite dangerous. Getting rid of the potentially dangerous gap is good too, again because contact favors Neil and not us. Leaving him four ways to hit in the outfield doesn’t look excessive, given that we still have “life after death” if he hits us. And as was the case yesterday, though not to as great a degree, one of those hits might turn out to be “the lucky shot that gets him gammoned”.

Did someone say gammons? We can still win one here, even if he never gives us a chance to close him out. A failed deuce point game saves more gammons than a failed ace point game, partly because even one pip closer to home for each back men can matter, and partly because the player tends to know sooner when it has failed or is about to, and that he therefore should make a dash for it. But the deuce point game doesn’t always save when it fails, so we should think about the benefits of starting our bearoff ASAP to give him less game-time to save the gammon. Clearing the 8 now heads us in that direction, which is one more good reason to like it, especially at the score.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 66
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBDC--A--a--aa----cbbc-:1:-1:-1:64:1:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.xgRollout113/7 10/6eq: -0.990
Player:
Opponent:
4.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.34% (G:8.60% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.991...-0.989) - [81.4%]
Duration: 38 minutes 25 seconds
2.playedRollout113/7 9/5eq: -0.990 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
4.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.21% (G:8.90% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.991...-0.989) - [18.6%]
Duration: 38 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81166113
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 9/5.

I should try to remake a 5 point board and hope for a shot soon. So I play 13/7 for a builder but there’s then little to choose between 10/6 and 9/5. I will go with 9/5 as it looks like more rolls can cover my 5th point next turn.

Note that had I rolled a 7 here, this time I’d quickly hit in spite of 13 very gammonish return shot since now, with my opponents 8 point gone, I can win this going forward after a hit more often.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 66
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBDC--A-----a--a-acbbc-:1:-1:1:65:1:4:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 74
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbC-DC-BAb-----a----cbbc-:1:-1:1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout16/4 5/4eq: +0.888
Player:
Opponent:
89.85% (G:10.91% B:0.26%)
10.15% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.885...+0.891) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout19/6eq: +0.799 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
86.66% (G:9.75% B:0.24%)
13.34% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.796...+0.802) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 6/4 5/4
[ 2] 9/6


Mary Hickey recommends: 6/4 5/4

This is the time to get rid of that gap on our 4 point, before he’s had a chance to rebuild one of the two missing high points in his board. The danger of getting hit will be greater then, and so will the chance we leave a shot, if we still have the gap when our bearoff begins. Make the point, 6/4 5/4, and let him worry about whether he’s even supposed to hit this early, if he rolls that 52! It might win the game, yes, but it also might be “the lucky shot that gets him gammoned.”


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 71
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBCB-BAb-----a----cbbc-:1:-1:-1:52:1:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout115/13 15/10eq: -0.901
Player:
Opponent:
9.91% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
90.09% (G:11.52% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.904...-0.898) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout115/10 9/7eq: -0.909 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
9.92% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
90.08% (G:12.32% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.912...-0.906) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout115/8eq: -0.913 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
9.91% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
90.09% (G:12.34% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.916...-0.910) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 48 seconds
4.Rollout115/10 4/2eq: -0.919 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
9.89% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
90.11% (G:13.17% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.922...-0.916) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 24 seconds
5.Rollout115/13 9/4eq: -0.932 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
8.75% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
91.25% (G:11.89% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.934...-0.929) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 26 seconds
6.Rollout19/2eq: -0.943 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
8.71% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
91.29% (G:12.72% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.945...-0.940) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
7.Rollout123/16*eq: -0.961 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
21.58% (G:1.66% B:0.03%)
78.42% (G:41.34% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.965...-0.958) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81166113
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/13 15/10.

I have rolled a number that allows me to hit and open myself up to crushing counterattacks. My usual way to handle a score-based problem is to try to solve it for money play first and then adjust for score. So if I determine that I am very unsure whether to hit for money or not, I will play safe here since it is worse for me to lose a gammon than for money and since I have less recube vig at this score.

If I hit, I am return hit with 13 rolls and I hate everyone of them as I will often lose a gammon. It is still difficult for me to win after hitting as I remain with one checker stuck in a 5 point board that can only escape with 5’s. Even if my opponents dance (44%) and I escape with a 5 (31%), I still don’t look like a favorite, as I will still be behind in pips and I have a 4 point board with 2 dead checkers. I will be at risk as soon as they enter, and if I fumble the ball and get hit after escaping I can still even be gammoned. Of course, I will be at risk of nearly instant death after hitting if I cannot get a quick 5 before my opponents enter from the bar.

So lets estimate how often I can win after hitting. It looks difficult, but I do have a 4 point board and can maybe get outfield control if I can hop out with a 5 in time. But all in all, with 2 dead checkers and a crashed board, things look bad. I doubt that I can win much over 20%. How often will I be gammoned after hitting? I am very often gammoned when ever I am hit at any time with more than one blot exposed. I expect to lose a gammon about half the time I lose the game so 40% seems to be a good figure.

So lets say that I don’t hit. I think I can still win 10%, noting that 65 and 63 blot and then I should be able to safely hit, as my opponents will have fewer counter attacking rolls. By not hitting with this 52 I can still lose a gammon but I don’t think much more than 10% of the time.

So to me it seems that hitting should gain about 10% wins at the cost of 30% extra gammons lost. Maybe I am too pessimistic but there’s some added backgammon losses after hitting as well, so it appears to me to be wrong to hit for money.

Note that for money or at a more even score in a long match the cubeful effects of winning more often mean that the cost of extra gammons lost vs extra wins gained doesn’t really trade 2:1. The usual cubeful ratio is more like 2.5:1. But here in this position that ratio may be as high as 3:1 and there’s the small chance to lose a backgammon with 3 checkers closed out as well. I really cannot see it being correct to hit for money, so there’s no way I will hit at this score.

My best play therefore is 15/13 15/10, so my blocked 44 and 43 make a new point in my board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 71
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBCB-BA--a--aa----cbbc-:1:-1:1:32:1:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AbAcDCBBB----------bcbba-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout17/6 7/3eq: +0.823
Player:
Opponent:
80.64% (G:24.36% B:0.66%)
19.36% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.818...+0.828) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout16/1eq: +0.716 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
76.81% (G:23.43% B:0.63%)
23.19% (G:1.98% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.711...+0.721) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 7/6 7/3
[ 4] 6/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/6 7/3

We have our chance to cover the 3 point, 7/6 7/3, clearing the bar point in the process. While rolling a block home from the back is a good general principle, it’s not an overriding one. Here, clearing the bar does more for us than just covering the 3 point. It also makes some of his 5s very bad, costing him his back anchor. That’s a big deal, because if he runs with a 6 and buys some time to save his board, the most likely way for him to win will be from a well-timed deuce point game, made a little better for him by our gap on the 4 point. But he can’t win that way if our play and the dice conspire to force him off it now!



Neil Kazaross: 44 5/1(2)
USBGF Members: 65 9/3 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 74
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCcDC-BA-----------cbbc-:1:-1:-1:66:1:4:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout121/15(2) 21/9eq: -0.831
Player:
Opponent:
13.22% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
86.78% (G:12.60% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.835...-0.828) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout121/9(2)eq: -1.018 (-0.187)
Player:
Opponent:
12.13% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
87.87% (G:26.72% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.022...-1.015) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/15(2) 21/9.

This is a good roll for a missing number. Hopefully I can now run off the gammon and I still retain small winning chances. It would be horrible to leave a checker on the 21 point under the gun of 4 builders greatly increasing my gammon risk, so I run all 3 out.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 74
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbC-DC-BAb-----a----cbbc-:1:-1:1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10