USBGF OLM 2019-06-18

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 45
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 114
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BABBCB------------ace-Cd-:0:0:1:63:7:10:1:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout123/17 5/2eq: -0.514
Player:
Opponent:
24.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
75.70% (G:25.88% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.515...-0.512) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout123/14eq: -0.534 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
23.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
76.68% (G:26.34% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.535...-0.532) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 23/17 5/2
[ 4] 23/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/17 5/2

We did not hit, but 63 is still a good roll. We cover 5/2 and then play 23/17 so that we do not crunch with 33 or 22.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 23/17 5/2

Gammons don’t count. This move might even be better for money.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 45
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 105
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBB----------A-ace-Bd-:0:0:-1:61:7:10:1:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout16/Off 1/Offeq: +0.548
Player:
Opponent:
77.38% (G:32.51% B:1.97%)
22.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.546...+0.549) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 5/4eq: +0.528 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
76.42% (G:25.22% B:0.69%)
23.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.527...+0.530) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
3.Rollout16/Offeq: +0.508 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
75.42% (G:25.39% B:0.81%)
24.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.507...+0.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/0 1/0.

A difficult ace, since if I bear off two checkers I will be vulnerable to leaving two blots with 62 and 52 next roll. But note that those rolls blot if I play 5/4. If I play 1/0 my 32 is safe but my 65 blots. If I play 1/0 my 63 and 53 now play safely. However, 5/4 seems to make it easier for me to clear the 5 point which leaves me in great shape.

The deuce point game has a tendency to force checkers to the ace point behind the anchor. As a result, when you get hit, you may not have enough checkers removed to have reasonable winning chances. For this reason, it is often correct to bear checkers off the ace point when playing vs a deuce point game unless playing another ace is significantly more safe. While it doesn’t matter here, more gammons are won by bearing off. What does matter is that I cannot be cubed out if hit, so every checker I can take off prior to being hit gives me more “life after death.”


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 38
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 105
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBB----------A--ce-Bc-:0:0:1:31:7:10:1:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Mon 6/24 915p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-06-17

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ADBCB----------b-bce-Cc-:0:0:1:62:7:10:1:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout13/1eq: -0.389
Player:
Opponent:
29.65% (G:1.77% B:0.08%)
70.35% (G:18.42% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.391...-0.386) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout15/3eq: -0.486 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
24.82% (G:1.72% B:0.07%)
75.18% (G:19.28% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.489...-0.483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[41] 3/1
[ 1] 5/3


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 3/1

Preparing a closed board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 116
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AACBCB----------b-bce-Cc-:0:0:-1:65:7:10:1:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout16/1eq: -0.095
Player:
Opponent:
48.76% (G:11.68% B:0.49%)
51.24% (G:6.85% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.098...-0.092) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout18/3eq: -0.136 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
50.40% (G:15.71% B:1.08%)
49.60% (G:14.00% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.139...-0.133) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1.

I cannot leave two blots here as I fear it increases my chances to lose a gammon. Therefore, I’ll play 6/1 and hope to roll well if missed.



USBGF Members: 62 3/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 114
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BABBCB----------b-ace-Cd-:0:0:-1:44:7:10:1:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout18/Off(2)eq: +0.134
Player:
Opponent:
56.69% (G:21.77% B:0.83%)
43.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.132...+0.136) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 8/Off 5/1eq: +0.023 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
51.17% (G:15.99% B:0.38%)
48.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.021...+0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/0(2).

I can’t safety my blot, but I can take off two checkers and leave a position that has many safe rolls next turn if missed.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 45
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 114
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BABBCB------------ace-Cd-:0:0:1:63:7:10:1:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Mon 6/24 1215p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-06-16

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 73
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 123
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---DBDB----------c-bce-BbA:0:0:1:32:7:10:1:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout1Bar/22 3/1eq: -0.489
Player:
Opponent:
24.83% (G:1.40% B:0.05%)
75.17% (G:24.00% B:1.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.491...-0.487) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 17 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/23 5/2eq: -0.502 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
24.10% (G:1.53% B:0.07%)
75.90% (G:17.40% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.505...-0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] b/23 5/2
[15] b/22 3/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 3/1

I tend to find that cube actions alter more than checker play at different match scores. When evaluating either at any match score, I always think what would I do for money?

Here for money, we want to cut down Gammons so should enter bar/23 so then would have to play 5/2. However here we are not afraid of losing Gammons so we should make the move that gives us the best chance of winning. We have to consider bar/22 3/1. The big advantage of that play is that we have more numbers that escape and give us more timing. Considering bar/22 3/1 and comparing it to the money play of bar/23 5/2, I really cannot decide which is better. It has to be close, and I could be really wrong but I think that at this score we should enter bar/22 and play 3/1.

If this was a doubles tournament and my opponent felt strongly about either move, I would let them have the final say.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/23 5/2

Bar/22 brings no considerable improvement for our shot chances, since we can only expect a shot on the 3 point next roll: 13 instead of 11 shots. Neil can hit or even point on our blot on the 22 point. After we get hit, we will often fan and then get only an indirect shot with 2 or 4 rolls instead of a direct shot with 11 or more rolls. In total, bar/22 reduces our shot chances considerably. This outweighs the advantage of being more flexible and thus having less risk to crunch. The risk of crunching is not too high since we have 5s to play and, like before, 6s don’t play or escape.

In other words: Make sure you have no checker on the bar when the other guy is forced to leave a shot.



Neil Kazaross: 43 8/1


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ADBCB----------b-bce-Cc-:0:0:1:62:7:10:1:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 96
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 109
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aACADB-B----a---b-bbe-Bb-:0:0:1:54:7:10:1:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout18/4 8/3eq: -0.133
Player:
Opponent:
40.12% (G:6.27% B:0.26%)
59.88% (G:12.05% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.136...-0.130) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout123/18 8/4eq: -0.165 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
37.32% (G:8.57% B:0.45%)
62.68% (G:31.01% B:1.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.169...-0.162) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 8/4 8/3
[14] 23/18 8/4
[ 3] 6/2 6/1*
[ 1] 8/4 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4 8/3

We should cover 8/4 with the 4 then consider how to play the 5.

If we play 23/18, Neil can hit us with 6’s, 5’s, 2’s and 1’s – and those are just the direct numbers before we consider combinations.

If we play 8/3 then we only get hit with 1’s and we have killed our 6’s, this has to be the correct move.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/4 8/3

8/4 is obvious. 23/18 aims for outfield control. Is this worth taking the additional risk of leaving extra shots on 5 and abandoning the anchor? Gammons don’t count but getting hit in volatile positions is very expensive. Abandoning the anchor costs a lot since it would keep us guaranteed in the game for a long time in case we’d get hit. The risk of crunching next roll if we stay is small. 5s escape and 6s either escape or don’t play. Other rolls hit or cover. Most of all many 5s play awkward for Neil if we keep the anchor. Let us not turn Neil’s bad rolls into good rolls and play 8/3 hoping he will roll no 6 and in the best case no 1 as well.



Neil Kazaross: 61 24/23*/17
USBGF Members: 41 no play
Neil Kazaross: 44 17/15 12/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 73
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 123
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---DBDB----------c-bce-BbA:0:0:1:32:7:10:1:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 117
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACaDB-B---Aa--ab-bbd-Bb-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout112/4* eq: -0.194
Player:
Opponent:
34.91% (G:10.47% B:0.59%)
65.09% (G:24.90% B:3.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.197...-0.191) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout123/18 5/2eq: -0.347 (-0.153)
Player:
Opponent:
28.45% (G:8.17% B:0.58%)
71.55% (G:30.62% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.350...-0.344) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout112/7 5/2eq: -0.401 (-0.207)
Player:
Opponent:
27.91% (G:3.96% B:0.18%)
72.09% (G:12.51% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.404...-0.399) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 36 seconds
4.Rollout123/15eq: -0.418 (-0.223)
Player:
Opponent:
25.73% (G:6.59% B:0.44%)
74.27% (G:30.96% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.420...-0.415) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[41] 12/4*
[ 5] 23/18 5/2
[ 3] 23/15
[ 1] 12/7 5/2


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 12/4*

At any match score: Attack and go for it. Neil may miss and we will improve a lot. If he hits it does matter, but not too much since we’re down in the race, hold an anchor and can reenter on two points.



Neil Kazaross: 51 b/24 9/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 96
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 109
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aACADB-B----a---b-bbe-Bb-:0:0:1:54:7:10:1:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 107
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 128
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACbDB-B-------ab-bbd-Cb-:0:0:1:65:7:10:1:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout123/12eq: -0.154
Player:
Opponent:
37.19% (G:9.89% B:0.43%)
62.81% (G:17.41% B:1.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.157...-0.151) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 34 seconds
2.Rollout123/18 8/2eq: -0.362 (-0.208)
Player:
Opponent:
28.70% (G:6.21% B:0.27%)
71.30% (G:27.46% B:3.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.366...-0.359) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout18/3 8/2eq: -0.504 (-0.349)
Player:
Opponent:
22.77% (G:4.00% B:0.10%)
77.23% (G:15.40% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.506...-0.501) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 23/12


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/12

Playing 8/3 8/2 gives us a 5 point board, but concedes the outfield and makes it so much easier for Neil to escape.

Playing 23/12 keeps our anchor and our 8 point to block some of Neil’s rolls, so that would be my play. Even if we move the spare checker on our 23 point to say our 3 point, so we have to give up the anchor with 23/12, it is still the correct move.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 107
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 117
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACbDB-B---A---ab-bbd-Bb-:0:0:-1:54:7:10:1:11:10
to play 54

1.Rollout121/16 9/5eq: -0.012
Player:
Opponent:
56.47% (G:23.12% B:3.13%)
43.53% (G:13.72% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.013...-0.010) - [99.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.playedRollout121/12eq: -0.014 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
57.77% (G:20.55% B:2.24%)
42.23% (G:16.46% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.015...-0.013) - [0.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/12.

Well now I’ve got to go. So I’ll start with 21/16 and pause to look at the 4. 9/5 cuts down on the blot total, but I fear staying on the 16 point although 3’s are duplicated to hit and cover. If I get attacked inside, that blot may get picked up next turn. 16/12 seems a bit better to me, although now 52 hits, but at least leaves a slew of blots. 55 is also great for them after 16/12. But I still have a slight preference to run all the way.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 117
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACaDB-B---Aa--ab-bbd-Bb-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 149
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABbBC-B---bB---b-cbb-BbA:0:0:1:32:7:10:1:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 6/3eq: -0.266
Player:
Opponent:
32.96% (G:7.26% B:0.39%)
67.04% (G:28.55% B:5.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.270...-0.262) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 8/6eq: -0.295 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
31.85% (G:6.59% B:0.37%)
68.15% (G:38.35% B:8.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.299...-0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/23 5/2eq: -0.308 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
31.24% (G:6.56% B:0.40%)
68.76% (G:34.83% B:7.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.312...-0.303) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 53 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/23 8/5eq: -0.309 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
31.33% (G:6.29% B:0.26%)
68.67% (G:32.29% B:6.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.313...-0.305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 15 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/22 13/11eq: -0.315 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
31.06% (G:6.25% B:0.38%)
68.94% (G:43.38% B:11.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.319...-0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 11 seconds
6.Rollout1Bar/22 3/1eq: -0.316 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
30.49% (G:7.22% B:0.23%)
69.51% (G:35.40% B:7.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.320...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] b/23 6/3
[ 9] b/22 13/11
[ 3] b/22 3/1
[ 1] b/22 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 6/3

We would prefer to enter on the 22 point if we could but then we have no good 2 to play so let’s enter Bar/23 then play 6/3 leaving no blots.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/23 6/3

Bar/22 13/11 was my first idea. It is a typical blunder that can happen when playing in “autopilot mode”. This play is pure, does not bury a checker, has flexible distribution, gives the best chances to hit a blot in the outfield (if any and if we are not on the bar when a shot comes up) and losing a gammon does not matter. But it completely neglects the mutual game plans and the situation.

We are down in the race without any priming potential. All our game plans are based on first hitting a shot. Neil has three stripped points outside his homeboard and next roll he will be forced to leave a direct shot with many rolls. Leaving white blots around would help Neil to get home safe by putting one or more of our checkers on the bar.

Bar/22 13/11 leaves 20 shots plus 53 55 and 22 — a total of 24 rolls after which we will find at least one of our checkers on the bar with no direct shot for us and with three further blots chattered around the board. This reduces our shot chances considerably and for the same reason bar/22 8/6 is not as good as the only perfect safe play bar/23 6/3 which allows us to shoot on any shot that Neil has to give next roll.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 144
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACbBB-B---bB---b-cbb-Cb-:0:0:-1:63:7:10:1:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/4eq: +0.196
Player:
Opponent:
63.87% (G:27.66% B:5.39%)
36.13% (G:7.93% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.194...+0.197) - [69.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
2.xgRollout121/18 21/15eq: +0.195 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
65.55% (G:32.22% B:7.79%)
34.45% (G:11.27% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.193...+0.197) - [30.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: +0.178 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
63.32% (G:26.85% B:4.16%)
36.68% (G:8.56% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.177...+0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/4.

Something has to give. I have three choices. I can run both checkers and will be in fine shape if I get away with it. 6’s and 1’s are duplicated, but I don’t like the added 3 shot. Just too many rolls to hit me and without anchor I can lose a gammon. So I will retain the anchor, which puts pressure on their stripped points as well.

My 6 will be 13/7 and now I have to compare 13/10 vs. 7/4. Both leave 13 shots but 7/4 leaves only one blot and one fewer hit and cover jokers. 13/10 leaves me quite a few nice rolls to make a 5 prime when missed. However, by playing 7/4 my blot on the midpoint pressures their stripped midpoint. 7/4 looks a bit more natural to me, but it is the fact that I only leave one blot that steers me to make this play. In addition they now have fewer ways to hit me and escape that spare from my 2 point.



USBGF Members: 44 13/5(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 128
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACbDB-B---a----b-cbc-Cb-:0:0:-1:42:7:10:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/9 6/4eq: +0.239
Player:
Opponent:
66.10% (G:19.07% B:1.85%)
33.90% (G:8.09% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.235...+0.242) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout113/7eq: +0.231 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
65.48% (G:18.01% B:1.65%)
34.52% (G:7.68% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.227...+0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 6/4.

I have to further weaken my position here. Breaking my 8 point and reducing my containment is unthinkable so my 4 has to be 13/9. After 13/9 I can play 9/7 which might win the beauty contest, but leaves nine more shots and six hit/cover jokers, so 9/7 is likely not best for winning the game. So that leaves 6/4, which is so ugly it hurts my eyes but maybe when not hit, I can roll something better next turn. Perhaps their 8 point will break and I can flee from the anchor into their outfield with relative safety. If 9/7 meant fewer extra shots it would be my choice and note that it also can result in me rolling something awkward when not hit. This looks close to me, but I will go with the ugly play that gets hit 25% less often with their next roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 107
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 128
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACbDB-B-------ab-bbd-Cb-:0:0:1:65:7:10:1:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 138
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 154
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABbBC-A---bC---cbd-b-AB-:0:0:1:52:7:10:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout124/22 13/8eq: -0.243
Player:
Opponent:
33.96% (G:7.53% B:0.26%)
66.04% (G:27.10% B:3.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.248...-0.239) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 8/3eq: -0.311 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
30.91% (G:6.92% B:0.27%)
69.09% (G:29.51% B:4.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.315...-0.306) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[46] 24/22 13/8
[ 1] 13/8 3/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 13/8

A really simple choice, we need to remake the 8 point then chose a 2.

13/11 would leave a blot on the 13 point, 3/1 ruins our board, so we should just play 24/22, which splits in front of 11 checkers but gives us the best chance to get an advanced anchor.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 138
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 147
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABbBC-B---bB---cbd-bAAA-:0:0:-1:61:7:10:1:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/2* 2/1* eq: +0.111
Player:
Opponent:
60.68% (G:26.30% B:2.82%)
39.32% (G:10.00% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.106...+0.115) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.075 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
58.15% (G:20.47% B:2.61%)
41.85% (G:8.58% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.070...+0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout113/6eq: +0.039 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
56.68% (G:20.37% B:2.14%)
43.32% (G:9.16% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.035...+0.044) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2*/1*.

The point I want in this position is my 5 point, and this roll doesn’t help me in that regard. If I play 13/7, I leave a direct shot in my outfield and my ace forces me to take a builder away. I also could lose outfield control.

In spite of the score where I cannot use a gammon, it seems best to hit two checkers. If this turns into a blitz, a closeout is still an easy way to win.



USBGF Members: 42 b/23


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 148
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABbBC-B---bB---bbd-bAAaA:0:0:-1:32:7:10:1:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout16/3* 3/1eq: +0.275
Player:
Opponent:
67.91% (G:40.34% B:3.20%)
32.09% (G:8.13% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.270...+0.279) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout16/1eq: +0.124 (-0.151)
Player:
Opponent:
61.10% (G:29.92% B:1.83%)
38.90% (G:9.56% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.119...+0.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 17 seconds
3.Rollout113/8eq: +0.023 (-0.251)
Player:
Opponent:
56.50% (G:22.74% B:2.39%)
43.50% (G:10.40% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.019...+0.027) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3*/1.

I can safely pick and pass, continuing my attack and also gaining pips.



USBGF Members: 42 b/23


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 149
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABbBC-B---bB---bbc-b-BbA:0:0:-1:11:7:10:1:11:10
to play 11

1.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.236
Player:
Opponent:
65.74% (G:31.09% B:5.73%)
34.26% (G:7.64% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.234...+0.238) - [93.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
2.playedRollout17/5(2)eq: +0.234 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
65.68% (G:31.32% B:5.56%)
34.32% (G:7.71% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.233...+0.236) - [6.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/5(2).

I have two good ways to make my 5 point, and somewhat prefer the blotless play since they have a three point board and since if I get hit with seven stripped points, I may enter badly.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 149
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABbBC-B---bB---b-cbb-BbA:0:0:1:32:7:10:1:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 161
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aBaBC-B---cC---bbd-b-AAA:0:0:1:61:7:10:1:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 8/2* eq: -0.084
Player:
Opponent:
39.25% (G:12.72% B:0.65%)
60.75% (G:25.04% B:7.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.089...-0.079) - [100.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/7eq: -0.109 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
38.36% (G:12.04% B:0.79%)
61.64% (G:26.48% B:6.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.114...-0.104) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 40 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] b/24 8/2*
[ 5] b/24 13/7


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/24 13/7

I am curious as to the outcome of the rollout at high settings. XG++ hits by a small margin and a rollout at 3 ply/XG Roller prefers my play by 0.001. Over the board and even after seeing XG++, I would play b/24 8/2* for the reasons as follows:

Having only three points made and nine checkers in the zone, our own attack is of medium force. In order to hit we have to trade in our 8 point which is –being a permanent asset and blocking Neil´s checkers in our homeboard — very important. Getting hit back on the 2 or on the 8 point costs much more than getting hit on the 7 point since we weakened our position considerably by relinquishing the 8 point.

In addition, Neil’s priming and attacking threats are moderate. He has only a two point board and a bad distribution of his builders. Thus it is not too important to play a tempo move.

On the other hand the best possible outcome would be Neil fanning. But this happens only in 9 of 36 rolls and I feel better to have a stronger position in the remaining 25 rolls.

Maybe this position turns out to be a reference position for the problem of trading in the 8 point in order to hit or playing a passive game like I propose.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 154
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-ABaBC-A---cC---bbd-b-AB-:0:0:-1:54:7:10:1:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: +0.237
Player:
Opponent:
65.78% (G:24.37% B:3.81%)
34.22% (G:7.66% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.233...+0.241) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/16eq: +0.024 (-0.213)
Player:
Opponent:
59.49% (G:22.41% B:4.91%)
40.51% (G:16.11% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.019...+0.029) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 13/8.

A fine roll for me anchoring and bringing down a builder and giving me a nice advantage in the game.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 138
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 154
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABbBC-A---bC---cbd-b-AB-:0:0:1:52:7:10:1:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 145
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BaBC-C---cC---bbd-b--B-:0:0:1:41:7:10:1:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/23 8/4* eq: +0.238
Player:
Opponent:
51.54% (G:20.10% B:1.60%)
48.46% (G:18.12% B:2.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.233...+0.243) - [100.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout18/4* 4/3eq: +0.186 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
48.67% (G:20.65% B:1.18%)
51.33% (G:16.29% B:2.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.182...+0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout18/4* 6/5eq: +0.183 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
49.05% (G:19.62% B:1.40%)
50.95% (G:18.40% B:3.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.178...+0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 43 seconds
4.Rollout18/4* 5/4eq: +0.164 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
48.39% (G:19.05% B:1.20%)
51.61% (G:18.62% B:3.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.159...+0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: +0.113 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
48.11% (G:14.62% B:1.30%)
51.89% (G:16.65% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.109...+0.117) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 24/23 8/4*
[14] 8/4*/3
[ 2] 24/23 24/20
[ 1] 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 8/4*

We have to fight for the 5 and 4 points. We need to attack 8/4* then the best 1 is to split 24/23, putting pressure on Neil’s 8 point. If we are hit, then having split means we have more chances of getting an anchor.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/23 8/4*

More or less reasonable alternative moves are 13/8, 24/23 13/9, 24/23 24/20, 24/20 6/5, and 8/4*/3. The problem with the non-hitting moves is that Neil can freely move and establish an anchor, make a point or attack. Most of all we do not really develop our own position. After any non-hitting move we are not favourite since Neil has so many opportunities.

Thus we have to hit for both, defence and offence. If Neil does not enter on the four point, we will be the in good shape (except if he rolls aces) and if he enters or hits back we do not lose much since the game plan for both sides is either priming or attacking instead of running due to the ample contact.

What about the ace?

4/3 plays safe but if we want to make the 4 point we cannot expect to make it without leaving a shot. And we need the 4 point badly. We rather take chances now than later. Later might be too late if Neil establishes an anchor. Later might be more dangerous if Neil improves his board. So we leave the checker on the 4 point.

6/5 is safe but does not improve our play in Neil’s homeboard.

24/23 brings maximum flexibility but includes the risk of being double hit if Neil rolls a 43, 44, 45 or 46, save of the question if Neil should double hit with all these numbers. Since we do not have too many spare checkers in the outfield we need flexibility. When we get hit only one time we will have more chances to establish an advanced anchor in Neil’s homeboard. This is worth taking some extra chances.



Neil Kazaross: 32 b/23 24/21*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 161
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aBaBC-B---cC---bbd-b-AAA:0:0:1:61:7:10:1:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 153
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--aBD-D---cC---cbe----B-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: +0.229
Player:
Opponent:
52.43% (G:17.47% B:0.99%)
47.57% (G:12.41% B:1.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.224...+0.233) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout124/16eq: +0.179 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
52.24% (G:12.99% B:0.82%)
47.76% (G:12.93% B:1.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.175...+0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout124/21 6/1* eq: +0.150 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
50.00% (G:14.62% B:0.46%)
50.00% (G:14.05% B:1.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.146...+0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
4.Rollout124/21 13/8eq: +0.144 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
50.07% (G:13.83% B:0.80%)
49.93% (G:12.88% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.140...+0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 27 seconds
5.Rollout124/21 8/3eq: +0.138 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
49.62% (G:14.17% B:0.70%)
50.38% (G:15.40% B:2.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.134...+0.142) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 53 seconds
6.Rollout18/5 6/1* eq: +0.136 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
48.59% (G:15.98% B:0.44%)
51.41% (G:14.94% B:1.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.132...+0.140) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 44 seconds
7.Rollout113/5eq: +0.133 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
48.53% (G:15.76% B:0.71%)
51.47% (G:14.02% B:1.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.128...+0.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 8/3 6/3
[ 2] 24/16
[ 1] 13/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/3

We have 10 checkers in the zone and would like to attack. Neil has 10 checkers in the attack zone and would like to attack. If we split or run then Neil would like to attack us.

So we should just make the 3 point with 8/3 6/3. This is the play for money. After doing the money analysis then we can think about how we can adjust it for the particular score. Here at 4a 1a Crawford, we would like to score a gammon so we have even more reason to play 8/3 6/3.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/3 6/3

A beginner will immediately jump on this play without considering any alternative. Make a point is normally best play since it creates a permanent asset.

Only the fact that this point is behind Neil’s advanced checker makes us look out for an alternative play. Hitting might be an alternative move but we have to hit on the ace point what is no good. Running 24/16 escapes one checker but it seems less powerful than creating a strong 3 point board with considerable gammon threats.



Neil Kazaross: 42 8/4 6/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 145
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BaBC-C---cC---bbd-b--B-:0:0:1:41:7:10:1:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sun 6/16 1100a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-06-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--aAE-C---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:51:7:10:1:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout113/8 6/5eq: +0.257
Player:
Opponent:
54.31% (G:16.60% B:0.86%)
45.69% (G:12.44% B:1.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.252...+0.262) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout16/5 6/1* eq: +0.234 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
53.05% (G:16.82% B:0.59%)
46.95% (G:13.58% B:1.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.229...+0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 13/8 6/5
[12] 6/5 6/1*
[ 1] 6/1* 5/4*
[ 1] 13/8 5/4*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 6/5

We have to play 6/5 with the 1. Then as we only have nine checkers in the zone, we should play 13/8 bringing another checker into the zone.

If we alter the position to bring another checker into the zone before the roll by moving a checker 13/8, then we would have 10 checkers in the zone which is enough to launch an attack so then we could play 6/1*.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/8 6/5

Make the 5 point and do not hit too deep (6/1*) unless you have a strong reason for doing so.



Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 153
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--aBD-D---cC---cbe----B-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout113/5* eq: +0.110
Player:
Opponent:
48.26% (G:14.09% B:0.88%)
51.74% (G:18.68% B:2.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.106...+0.115) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.Rollout18/5* 6/1* eq: +0.069 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
46.40% (G:13.73% B:0.55%)
53.60% (G:20.06% B:3.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.064...+0.074) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
3.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: +0.066 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
46.94% (G:12.36% B:0.77%)
53.06% (G:15.73% B:2.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.062...+0.070) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/5*
[10] 8/3 6/3
[ 2] 8/5* 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/5*

We need to fight for the 5 and 4 points, so here 13/5* is the best choice.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/5*

13/5*: XG says: This play seems to be best no matter what the score is. It wins more games and more gammons. How to find that out over the board? Very difficult, maybe impossible.

The general guideline In the opening (no point made yet) is as follows: Play aggressive in order to make a homeboard point, make an anchor, make an outfield point, escape one checker, stop the opponent from achieving his goals (tempo hit).

With this position we have come to a dilemma because 8/3 6/3 makes a homeboard point which is not too deep to be made in the opening in general. The merits of a permanent asset (point) add up every roll and normally outweigh the merits of a tactical play (tempo hit).

The more tactical play 8/5* exposes the checker to 22 shots resulting in black being favorite if he hits back. Only after 14 rolls of Neil we will be the favorite. We then can make the 5 point with 26 shots and have further good rolls.

The good thing about hitting even if Neil hits back is that we disturbed him from developing his position. After we make the 3 point almost all rolls play good or black: 15 rolls establish his 20 point; 14 rolls make a homeboard point or the bar point; 7 rolls escape the checker from blacks 20 point and only 1.2 and 1:5 play a little awkward.

We can conclude that 8/5* works very well in an offensive way after the 14 rolls of Neil that miss our shot and it works very well in a defensive way after the 22 rolls that hit our shot. Thus this play helps us after every possible roll of Neil!

This is not the case with 8/3 6/3: This play only works somehow well when Neil will not establish his 20 point. If he does our checkers on the three point will be kind of buried for a long time, because they are placed behind Neil’s checkers and cannot be used in order to block Neil or as landing points in a race. Of course if Neil will not make the anchor he still will have all other good rolls except 1:2 and 1:5.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa---AE-C---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:-1:31:7:10:1:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/21eq: -0.269
Player:
Opponent:
45.37% (G:12.59% B:1.89%)
54.63% (G:17.11% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.273...-0.264) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/10eq: -0.283 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
44.87% (G:14.10% B:1.70%)
55.13% (G:17.45% B:2.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.288...-0.278) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 24/23eq: -0.286 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
45.02% (G:12.55% B:1.58%)
54.98% (G:18.11% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.290...-0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76649427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21.

The correct play here for money is to split all the way up trying for a good anchor to counteract their 5 point. I don’t think this gammon save-like score will change that.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--aAE-C---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:51:7:10:1:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBBB-A--A--b---dcbAac-:1:1:1:61:7:8:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout112/5eq: -0.578
Player:
Opponent:
17.00% (G:0.77% B:0.03%)
83.00% (G:1.36% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.580...-0.576) - [95.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.playedRollout112/6 9/8eq: -0.580 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
16.93% (G:0.76% B:0.05%)
83.07% (G:1.29% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.581...-0.578) - [4.2%]
Duration: 55 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout112/6 7/6eq: -0.581 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
16.78% (G:0.42% B:0.02%)
83.22% (G:1.19% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.583...-0.580) - [0.1%]
Duration: 46 minutes 05 seconds
4.Rollout212/11 9/3eq: -0.591 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
16.71% (G:0.65% B:0.05%)
83.29% (G:1.59% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.594...-0.587) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds
5.Rollout29/3 7/6eq: -0.595 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
16.50% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
83.50% (G:1.49% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.598...-0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
6.Rollout212/11 7/1eq: -0.597 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
16.30% (G:0.63% B:0.02%)
83.70% (G:2.34% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.601...-0.593) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 57 seconds
7.Rollout27/6 7/1eq: -0.601 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
16.11% (G:0.40% B:0.01%)
83.89% (G:2.03% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.605...-0.597) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds
8.Rollout29/8 7/1eq: -0.602 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
16.24% (G:0.63% B:0.02%)
83.76% (G:2.45% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.606...-0.598) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 07 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 12/6 9/8
[ 5] 12/5
[ 1] 12/6 7/6
[ 1] 12/11 9/3
[ 1] 12/11 7/1
[ 1] 7/6 7/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 12/6 9/8

We need to stay back on the 22 point. We need to keep our 6 prime so we should move the 6 by playing 12/6, then 9/8 as it keeps the prime intact.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 12/6 9/8

The same ideas as last roll apply. No need to escape but we should not risk unnecessary gammons by playing 7/1 7/6 or 9/2 for example. A six prime is in place and there is nothing left to do but to bear in to the six point without wasting pips. 12/6 7/6 would be overplaying this idea since we can afford to keep the six prime.



Neil Kazaross: 31 6/3*/2
USBGF Members: 51 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 68
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCBA------b---ccb-bcA:1:1:-1:22:7:8:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout110/4 6/4eq: +0.867
Player:
Opponent:
93.57% (G:3.17% B:0.04%)
6.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.865...+0.869) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout110/2eq: +0.824 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
92.05% (G:3.07% B:0.04%)
7.95% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.821...+0.827) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 46 seconds
3.Rollout110/6(2)eq: +0.811 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
91.41% (G:3.54% B:0.02%)
8.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.808...+0.814) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4 6/4.

I have a nice safe play here that won’t blot next turn and will assure that I can take checkers off soon. After 10/4 6/4, the only roll that doesn’t safety my blot next turn is 21 and that roll closes my board. This play has to be better than bringing both checkers in which leaves me a blotting 66 and awkward rolls containing a 3 and a large number.



USBGF Members: 11 no play
Neil Kazaross: 62 10/2
USBGF Members: 52 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCBA----------bcd-ccA:1:1:-1:51:7:8:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/5 6/1eq: +0.925
Player:
Opponent:
96.12% (G:2.98% B:0.02%)
3.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.924...+0.927) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds
2.Rollout15/Off 1/Offeq: +0.887 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
93.57% (G:5.66% B:0.06%)
6.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.885...+0.888) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 6/1.

I should not be taking slight risks to win an unlikely gammon when they have a prime and most of their checkers in their homeboard. If I get hit, I will be forced to drop the cube because of the score unless I have many checkers off.

6/5 6/1 is clear and very safe for now.



USBGF Members: 52 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCBA-----------dd-cdA:1:1:-1:63:7:8:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout15/2 5/Offeq: +0.897
Player:
Opponent:
94.74% (G:2.80% B:0.02%)
5.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.896...+0.899) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second
2.Rollout15/Off 4/1eq: +0.886 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
94.32% (G:3.19% B:0.02%)
5.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.885...+0.887) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/2 5/0.

This is a rather standard play when I must avoid being hit and have almost no gammon chances. It should be slightly better to try to clear my 5 point next roll with 5/0 5/2.

If I play 4/1, I do have two fewer blotting rolls next turn but often will end up with the same four blotting rolls after next turn. This can be referred to as double jeopardy.



USBGF Members: 44 no play
Neil Kazaross: 53 5/2 5/0
USBGF Members: 55 b/5
Neil Kazaross: 41 4/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 53 8/3 7/4
Neil Kazaross: 31 4/0
USBGF Members: 22 7/5 6/4 2/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 61 4/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 54 5/0 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 52 4/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 31 5/4 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 64 2/0(2)


Neil Kazaross wins two points and leads Crawford/4-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:54:7:10:1:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20 13/8eq: -0.142
Player:
Opponent:
50.17% (G:16.77% B:2.49%)
49.83% (G:14.12% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.144...-0.140) - [94.9%]
Duration: 8 hours 07 minutes
2.Rollout124/15eq: -0.144 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
50.12% (G:14.66% B:2.02%)
49.88% (G:14.24% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.146...-0.142) - [5.1%]
Duration: 7 hours 56 minutes
3.Rollout213/9 13/8eq: -0.156 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
49.63% (G:17.90% B:2.53%)
50.37% (G:14.44% B:1.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.161...-0.152) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 55814307
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 55814307
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 13/8.

I almost always split an opening 54 with the only exception being when I trail at a lopsided score where I am seeking more gammon wins. That is not the case here.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 10
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:53:7:10:1:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBBAA---Aab---ccbAac-:1:1:1:61:7:8:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/12 8/2eq: -0.597
Player:
Opponent:
16.58% (G:0.73% B:0.03%)
83.42% (G:2.13% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.599...-0.595) - [57.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
2.Rollout113/6eq: -0.598 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
16.38% (G:0.68% B:0.03%)
83.62% (G:2.05% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.600...-0.596) - [23.6%]
Duration: 55 minutes 48 seconds
3.Rollout18/2 7/6eq: -0.598 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
16.51% (G:0.55% B:0.03%)
83.49% (G:2.06% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.600...-0.596) - [18.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
4.Rollout29/2eq: -0.604 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
16.52% (G:0.61% B:0.03%)
83.48% (G:2.34% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.608...-0.600) - [0.1%]
Duration: 10 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout213/7 9/8eq: -0.606 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
16.30% (G:0.69% B:0.03%)
83.70% (G:2.28% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.610...-0.601) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 13/12 8/2
[ 7] 13/7 9/8
[ 3] 13/6
[ 3] 9/2
[ 2] 22/16 13/12


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/12 8/2

After the roll, Neil will be ahead in the race by 20 pips and on roll. So a Racing Game plan should not be one we are seeking. We need to stay for the contact, so we should play 8/2 with the 6 giving us a great board and a 6 prime.

After that the 1 should probably just be played 13/12 which does get a crossover.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/7 9/8

The race is off. We stay in Neil’s home board for best shot chances. Gammon threats do not force us to run into the double shot. 13/7 9/8 makes a 6 prime with least gammon risk.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBBB-A--A-ab---ccbAac-:1:1:-1:41:7:8:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout111/6eq: +0.531
Player:
Opponent:
81.50% (G:1.23% B:0.01%)
18.50% (G:0.59% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.527...+0.535) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout111/10 6/2eq: +0.452 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
78.27% (G:0.98% B:0.02%)
21.73% (G:0.60% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.447...+0.456) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/6.

You have to bring them in to take them off, so 11/6 is clear. I may have to leave a fatal 7 shot next roll, but I also may be able to pick and pass or clear my 10 point safely or decide to stall with some rolls.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBBB-A--A--b---dcbAac-:1:1:1:61:7:8:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 93
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBBAA---Aac-b-cc-A-c-:0:0:-1:00:7:8:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.22% (G:2.78% B:0.04%) 71.92% (G:2.67% B:0.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.78% (G:1.79% B:0.15%) 28.08% (G:1.87% B:0.19%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.449 +1.319
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.804 (-0.076)±0.008 (+0.796..+0.812)
played Double/Take:+0.880±0.012 (+0.868..+0.892)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.120)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] Take
[ 6] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

We are in trouble but we could get a shot or still win the race. Neil has three checkers on his 1 point, which means he has some wastage.

We also have a strong board so any hit by us will be powerful.

Finally, we are playing a better player so we should be more inclined to take and shorten the match.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: Take

My first idea was to pass and I wrote this: We are down 11 pips in a position that is borderline in a race for money. The take point is higher than for money, since we are facing the Crawford game in case of a loss. The crucial question now is who benefits more from the existing contact, i.e. do our shot chances outweigh Neil’s attacking chances or vice versa? Neil will leave no shot this roll an we still be exposed for one or more rolls to his attack an then maybe get one indirect shot. In order to get a direct shot we will first have to survive one or more attacks. Not enough.

I missed the fact that Neil buried already three checkers on his ace point. This lack of builders weakens his attack considerably and increases our short term chances.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

I am ahead 11 pips and have a good diversification of pointing and blocking rolls and I am not likely to soon be forced to leave a direct shot. This is a must double.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 93
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBBAA---Aac-b-cc-A-c-:1:1:-1:44:7:8:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout110/2 8/4(2)eq: +0.345
Player:
Opponent:
73.67% (G:3.22% B:0.08%)
26.33% (G:2.30% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.340...+0.350) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout110/6(2) 10/2eq: +0.286 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
72.37% (G:2.44% B:0.03%)
27.63% (G:2.61% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.281...+0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/2 8/4(2).

This is lots of pips but I have to leave an 8 shot. 10/2 8/4(2) looks natural but unblocks their hitting 53 so I have to look at 10/6(2) 10/2. The safer play seems to leave me awkward and stacked and lacking my 4 point, and looks likely to run into trouble later. I think I have to leave two extra shots now. At least if I am hit, 12 rolls hit back, whereas later if hit they will often have a full prime.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBBAA---Aab---ccbAac-:1:1:1:61:7:8:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-06-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 93
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBBA----Bac-b-cc---cA:0:0:1:43:7:8:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 13/9eq: -0.868
Player:
Opponent:
28.28% (G:1.72% B:0.11%)
71.72% (G:2.81% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.881...-0.855) - [100.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 8/4eq: -0.899 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
27.90% (G:1.73% B:0.07%)
72.10% (G:3.03% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.912...-0.885) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/22 7/3eq: -0.944 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
27.40% (G:1.74% B:0.06%)
72.60% (G:3.38% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.957...-0.931) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 03 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/22 6/2eq: -0.970 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
27.17% (G:1.66% B:0.05%)
72.83% (G:3.38% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.983...-0.956) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 25 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/22 5/1eq: -1.000 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
25.54% (G:1.73% B:0.06%)
74.46% (G:6.12% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.009...-0.991) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 49 seconds
6.Rollout1Bar/21 13/10eq: -1.000 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
23.10% (G:1.05% B:0.04%)
76.90% (G:3.21% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 45 seconds
7.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -1.000 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
23.09% (G:1.13% B:0.05%)
76.91% (G:3.32% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 34 seconds
8.Rollout1Bar/21 8/5eq: -1.000 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
22.81% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
77.19% (G:3.54% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.006...-0.994) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] b/22 13/9
[ 3] b/21 13/10
[ 1] b/22 8/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 13/9

After the roll we will be behind in the race by 11 pips, with Neil on roll. We should not be racing but rather seeking contact, so we should stay back as far as possible which means we should enter on the 22 point with the 3. This means we have only three builders aimed at us not 4.

We should play the 4 by playing 13/9, which moves a checker closer to home. Moving to the 18 point also moves closer to home, but if we are hit there we lose all the pips.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/22 13/9

Again moving up to the 18 point leaves a triple shot for Neil. Only two of Neil’s builders point on the 23 point and we hope to exit with 6 or 4 next roll or even better hit a shot. 13/9 is self evident.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 93
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBBAA---Aac-b-cc-A-c-:0:0:-1:00:7:8:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-06-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBABA--bBba-b-db-A-b-:0:0:1:62:7:8:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout19/7 8/2eq: -0.383
Player:
Opponent:
40.05% (G:3.61% B:0.05%)
59.95% (G:4.65% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.386...-0.379) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout18/6 8/2eq: -0.393 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
39.73% (G:3.87% B:0.07%)
60.27% (G:4.78% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.396...-0.389) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout19/3 7/5eq: -0.393 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
39.47% (G:3.50% B:0.06%)
60.53% (G:4.51% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.396...-0.390) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 12 minutes
4.Rollout28/2 7/5eq: -0.403 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
39.64% (G:3.73% B:0.07%)
60.36% (G:5.02% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.412...-0.394) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 05 seconds
5.Rollout29/3 8/6eq: -0.411 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
39.30% (G:3.75% B:0.05%)
60.70% (G:4.57% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.420...-0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 58 seconds
6.Rollout28/2 4/2eq: -0.416 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
39.37% (G:3.87% B:0.11%)
60.63% (G:5.34% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.426...-0.407) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 15 seconds
7.Rollout28/6 7/1eq: -0.420 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
38.70% (G:3.90% B:0.05%)
61.30% (G:5.36% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.429...-0.411) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 18 seconds
8.Rollout29/1eq: -0.430 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
38.51% (G:3.79% B:0.05%)
61.49% (G:5.39% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.439...-0.422) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 54 seconds
9.Rollout27/1 3/1eq: -0.456 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
38.01% (G:3.70% B:0.03%)
61.99% (G:5.92% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.465...-0.448) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 12 seconds
10.Rollout213/11 13/7eq: -0.478 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
37.65% (G:3.16% B:0.08%)
62.35% (G:2.95% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.488...-0.469) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 51 seconds
11.Rollout28/2 6/4eq: -0.491 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
37.00% (G:4.39% B:0.15%)
63.00% (G:7.50% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.500...-0.482) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 19 seconds
12.Rollout29/3 4/2eq: -0.498 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
37.03% (G:4.41% B:0.09%)
62.97% (G:7.83% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.507...-0.488) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 09 seconds
13.Rollout28/2 5/3eq: -0.501 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
36.67% (G:4.50% B:0.12%)
63.33% (G:7.44% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.510...-0.491) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 27 seconds
14.Rollout29/3 6/4eq: -0.515 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
35.80% (G:5.06% B:0.18%)
64.20% (G:9.18% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.524...-0.505) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 15 seconds
15.Rollout27/1 4/2eq: -0.528 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:
35.72% (G:5.16% B:0.13%)
64.28% (G:9.52% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.538...-0.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 06 seconds
16.Rollout28/2 3/1eq: -0.534 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
35.29% (G:7.14% B:0.18%)
64.71% (G:11.13% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.543...-0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 43 seconds
17.Rollout29/3 5/3eq: -0.541 (-0.159)
Player:
Opponent:
35.07% (G:5.16% B:0.14%)
64.93% (G:10.22% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.550...-0.532) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 17 seconds
18.Rollout27/1 6/4eq: -0.544 (-0.162)
Player:
Opponent:
35.34% (G:5.54% B:0.18%)
64.66% (G:11.62% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.554...-0.535) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 35 seconds
19.Rollout27/1 5/3eq: -0.555 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent:
35.09% (G:6.67% B:0.25%)
64.91% (G:13.46% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.565...-0.545) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 06 seconds
20.Rollout222/16 9/7eq: -0.587 (-0.205)
Player:
Opponent:
35.07% (G:3.83% B:0.09%)
64.93% (G:5.38% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.596...-0.579) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 9/7 8/2
[ 3] 13/11 13/7
[ 3] 9/3 7/5
[ 2] 22/16 9/7
[ 1] 9/3 8/6
[ 1] 8/2 7/5
[ 1] 8/6 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/7 8/2

We should just play 9/7 8/2 which gives us a 5 prime, with both ends slotted.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 9/7 8/2

We would like to run, but being exposed to a triple shot after 22/16, waiting for a shot is more appealing. Two down (13/11 13/7) is worth thinking of. It is better for the race, makes the six prime and is less gammonish. But our 13 point serves as a landing point and puts pressure on Neil’s 13 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBBA---bBba-b-db-A-b-:0:0:-1:32:7:8:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout16/3* 3/1eq: +0.301
Player:
Opponent:
57.33% (G:3.17% B:0.05%)
42.67% (G:5.52% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.293...+0.310) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout110/5eq: +0.229 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
55.38% (G:2.81% B:0.04%)
44.62% (G:3.25% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.220...+0.237) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 56 seconds
3.xgRollout113/11 13/10eq: +0.226 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
55.24% (G:1.73% B:0.03%)
44.76% (G:1.90% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.216...+0.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3*/1.

This 32 leaves me with about an even race, but their checker will often be able to run away or I could end up leaving more fly shots. Therefore, best seems to be to pick and pass, leaving only two shots but killing their big racing rolls like 66. I gain 3 pips by putting them on the bar, but effectively waste at least a pip by adding a third checker to my ace point. My big gain from pick and pass come the 25% of the time they dance. This has to be worth two shots and some further awkwardness.



USBGF Members: 51 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 105
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBBA---bBba-b-cb---cA:0:0:-1:00:7:8:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.35% (G:4.60% B:0.10%) 67.91% (G:4.44% B:0.08%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.65% (G:3.58% B:0.08%) 32.09% (G:3.28% B:0.16%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.385 +1.094
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.676±0.010 (+0.666..+0.686)
     Double/Take:+0.584 (-0.093)±0.015 (+0.568..+0.599)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.324)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I have a nice advantage now, but don’t think it is good enough to double.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 105
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBBA---bBba-b-cb---cA:0:0:-1:33:7:8:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10(2) 11/5eq: +0.928
Player:
Opponent:
73.85% (G:4.27% B:0.03%)
26.15% (G:1.77% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.919...+0.938) - [99.8%]
Duration: 22 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout113/10(2) 11/8(2)eq: +0.909 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
73.36% (G:3.48% B:0.01%)
26.64% (G:1.31% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.900...+0.918) - [0.2%]
Duration: 22 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10(2) 11/5.

A nice shot for me, as I gain 12 pips and can make a flexible position with builders. 13/10(2) and 11/8 are clear, and then I slightly prefer 8/5 rather than 11/8 as it looks to be more flexible.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 93
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBBBA----Bac-b-cc---cA:0:0:1:43:7:8:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 119
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-ABb-bCa--b-db-A-b-:0:0:1:52:7:8:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/8 9/7eq: -0.196
Player:
Opponent:
44.71% (G:7.55% B:0.21%)
55.29% (G:6.28% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.201...-0.192) - [99.9%]
Duration: 5 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout19/7 9/4eq: -0.211 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
44.11% (G:7.56% B:0.22%)
55.89% (G:6.47% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.215...-0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout29/2eq: -0.212 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
44.19% (G:8.08% B:0.32%)
55.81% (G:7.45% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.221...-0.203) - [0.1%]
Duration: 52 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout29/4 8/6eq: -0.217 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
43.92% (G:7.32% B:0.21%)
56.08% (G:6.11% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.227...-0.208) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout213/6eq: -0.221 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
43.88% (G:7.49% B:0.25%)
56.12% (G:6.19% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.231...-0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 39 seconds
6.Rollout29/7 8/3eq: -0.233 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
43.61% (G:7.37% B:0.32%)
56.39% (G:6.97% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.242...-0.224) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 13/8 9/7
[14] 13/6
[ 8] 9/7 9/4
[ 2] 9/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 9/7

Let’s just make the 8 point, which bears directly on to the 2 point and then play 9/7.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/8 9/7

Since we cannot run, we’ll improve our board, play safe and keep flexibility. 9/2 slots the 2 point but leaves a direct shot when we hit an indirect shot next roll. 13/8 9/7 leaves only an indirect shot and is safer. It even means best improvement to our board because we can make a 6 prime next roll. And it keeps best flexibility by jumping Neil’s 15 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 119
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBABAb-bBa--b-db-A-b-:0:0:-1:54:7:8:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout115/11 15/10eq: +0.140
Player:
Opponent:
53.29% (G:3.76% B:0.07%)
46.71% (G:5.62% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.132...+0.148) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout111/2eq: +0.051 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
52.86% (G:6.17% B:0.20%)
47.14% (G:10.08% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.040...+0.062) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/11 15/10.

This roll makes me regret not breaking the 15 point last turn. Now I don’t really see much of a choice, as playing 11/2 leaves me stripped and their containment will just improve soon. So I have to play off 4 shots now with 15/11 15/10. One may wonder why I am having so much trouble playing safely in a position where the pip count is close. This is because just three of their checkers are positioned to harass many of mine, i.e. I basically have too many disjointed points.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBBABA--bBba-b-db-A-b-:0:0:1:62:7:8:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 128
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-ABb-bBb--b-ccAA-a-:0:0:1:62:7:8:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout121/13eq: -0.109
Player:
Opponent:
46.67% (G:6.55% B:0.15%)
53.33% (G:4.60% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.119...-0.100) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout19/3 8/6eq: -0.157 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
44.56% (G:10.45% B:0.39%)
55.44% (G:8.83% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.168...-0.147) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.Rollout19/7 8/2eq: -0.167 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
44.50% (G:11.45% B:0.39%)
55.50% (G:10.96% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.178...-0.156) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 21/13
[17] 9/7 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/13

After the roll we will be up 5 pips in the race so now we should run 21/13. If Neil attacks our remaining blot we should have rolls to hit his checker on his 1 point and a 4 point board of our own.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 21/13

The same consideration applies as discussed for the last move: When the race is still on it is better to run than to leave blots in the opponents homeboard. The threat of being pointed on with a good roll outweighs the merits of better shot chances or anchoring later.

But apparently Neil did not increase his attacking potential. The buried checker on his ace point should compensate for his better distribution on his 5 and 6 point. He as even less checkers in the zone. Why should we not stay one more time for better shot chances? Last roll, the fact that we could make the 3 point was the main reason for staying back. Due to the lack of an alternative play that provides an improvement, the defensive running play is the only play that enhances our winning chances.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 128
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-ABb-bCb--b-cc-A-a-:0:0:-1:54:7:8:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout111/6 5/1eq: +0.062
Player:
Opponent:
51.96% (G:5.72% B:0.14%)
48.04% (G:8.98% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.058...+0.067) - [65.8%]
Duration: 6 hours 12 minutes
2.xgRollout115/11 15/10eq: +0.061 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
51.45% (G:2.93% B:0.05%)
48.55% (G:5.98% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.058...+0.065) - [34.2%]
Duration: 6 hours 58 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/6 5/1.

I have to leave an indirect shot to attempt to get some more flexibility as playing two more checkers to my ace point looks awful. Fortunately some of these indirects are blocked.

11/6 5/1 leaves 3 shots and by covering my ace point, I may present more of a threat to their blot if it lingers in my board. However, this play doesn’t seem to increase my flexibility as much as clearing the 15 point does.

15/10 15/11 leaves 4 shots, but gives me some builders. It also leaves them 66 to run home and win the game. This makes this play tough and I suspect it is very close.

I’ve often said, that when you don’t want to be hit, leave fewer shots. But I’ve also mentioned many times that one must think and plan for the longer term. So lets look a little deeper.

If I clear the 15 point their blot can also run to safety with a 65. However, this play looks more flexible later on although my 65 will force me to make an ugly stack on my 5 point.

If I make my ace point and blot on my 11 point, my 62 is very ugly or I just have to bite the bullet and make my 9 point. 65 is also ugly as are some other rolls. So this would be an easy choice, except for the fact that I am leaving an extra shot. But basically it is two extra shots, since clearly the 15 point gives them a 66 that wins with the cube next turn unless I roll my own huge double. I might have a couple of jokers to roll to save me after getting hit, but the effect of clearing the 15 point is to almost leave 2 extra shots. Is it worth 5% extra immediate losses to have somewhat more flexibility later? I have my doubts, so I will play to leave fewer shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 119
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-ABb-bCa--b-db-A-b-:0:0:1:52:7:8:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-BBb-bBb--b-ebAA---:0:0:1:53:7:8:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.177
Player:
Opponent:
43.74% (G:9.73% B:0.25%)
56.26% (G:8.62% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.188...-0.166) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2.Rollout19/6 9/4eq: -0.260 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
41.66% (G:9.87% B:0.41%)
58.34% (G:11.04% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.272...-0.249) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
3.Rollout121/13eq: -0.271 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
42.55% (G:5.72% B:0.18%)
57.45% (G:5.99% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.281...-0.261) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 8/3 6/3
[ 6] 21/13


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/3

After the roll we will be ahead by 3 pips which means that we are really behind in the race. So, we should not race but seek contact.

We should simply make our 3 point. It is the next point we want to make, and it should make it harder for Neil to hit loose.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/3 6/3

Over the board I might have played 21/13. When the race is still on it is better to run than to leave blots in the opponents homeboard. The threat of being pointed on with a good roll outweighs the merits of better shot chances or anchoring later, normally.

What separates this position from “normal” positions is Neil’s bad distribution and our strong homeboard: All of his points are stripped except his 6 point and that he holds his 15 point. This brings ample opportunity to leave shots and together with the opportunity to establish a gammonish 4 point homeboard hitting a shot is worth going for. Last but not least we are on “gammon go” with four points away and should in case of doubt opt for the gammonish play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-ABb-bBb--b-ebAA---:0:0:-1:51:7:8:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/5 6/1eq: +0.053
Player:
Opponent:
52.41% (G:5.78% B:0.10%)
47.59% (G:8.26% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.042...+0.063) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
2.Rollout111/5eq: -0.117 (-0.170)
Player:
Opponent:
49.16% (G:6.91% B:0.28%)
50.84% (G:13.31% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.126...-0.108) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 6/1.

Their board is too strong for me to volunteer shots, and I have a somewhat constructive play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 128
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-ABb-bBb--b-ccAA-a-:0:0:1:62:7:8:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-BAb-cCb--b-db-A-A-:0:0:1:43:7:8:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout124/21 9/5eq: -0.349
Player:
Opponent:
40.21% (G:6.92% B:0.29%)
59.79% (G:8.74% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.353...-0.344) - [52.4%]
Duration: 8 hours 48 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 13/9eq: -0.349 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
40.63% (G:6.48% B:0.26%)
59.37% (G:8.21% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.354...-0.344) - [47.6%]
Duration: 9 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout224/21 8/4eq: -0.381 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
39.54% (G:7.59% B:0.26%)
60.46% (G:10.50% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.391...-0.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
4.Rollout224/21 6/2eq: -0.400 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
39.20% (G:7.91% B:0.30%)
60.80% (G:11.73% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.411...-0.389) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
5.Rollout224/21 22/18eq: -0.424 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
38.21% (G:7.66% B:0.48%)
61.79% (G:12.37% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.437...-0.411) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
6.Rollout222/18 9/6eq: -0.430 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
37.79% (G:7.80% B:0.48%)
62.21% (G:11.72% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.444...-0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
7.Rollout213/9 6/3eq: -0.435 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
38.22% (G:7.59% B:0.18%)
61.78% (G:10.33% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.447...-0.423) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
8.Rollout222/18 6/3eq: -0.443 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
37.51% (G:9.19% B:0.51%)
62.49% (G:14.04% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.455...-0.431) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
9.Rollout222/18 8/5eq: -0.450 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
37.16% (G:9.23% B:0.36%)
62.84% (G:13.39% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.462...-0.438) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
10.Rollout213/6eq: -0.452 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
37.64% (G:7.62% B:0.22%)
62.36% (G:9.76% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.463...-0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
11.Rollout29/5 6/3eq: -0.454 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
37.76% (G:8.05% B:0.32%)
62.24% (G:11.06% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.465...-0.443) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
12.Rollout213/9 8/5eq: -0.462 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
37.51% (G:7.77% B:0.30%)
62.49% (G:10.37% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.473...-0.451) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
13.Rollout29/2eq: -0.462 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
37.39% (G:7.80% B:0.36%)
62.61% (G:10.69% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.474...-0.450) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
14.Rollout28/5 8/4eq: -0.469 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
37.23% (G:7.52% B:0.29%)
62.77% (G:10.50% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.480...-0.458) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
15.Rollout28/4 6/3eq: -0.472 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent:
37.46% (G:7.64% B:0.22%)
62.54% (G:11.38% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.484...-0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45232853
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 24/21 13/9
[ 9] 13/9 6/3
[ 7] 8/4 6/3
[ 7] 24/21 9/5
[ 5] 9/5 6/3
[ 2] 22/18 8/5
[ 2] 22/18 6/3
[ 1] 8/5 8/4
[ 1] 24/21 8/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 13/9

We need to advance the anchor 24/21 so that we have more outfield coverage.

The 4 is more interesting. Playing 9/5 prepares to make another point, but 13/9 actually makes another point that will be good at restraining any checkers we hit.

9/5 gives us fewer rolls to make our 7 point and with it a 5 prime, but 13/9 keeps that option open.

My two second move here was to play 24/21 13/9, then I looked around but could not find anything I liked better so I will go with that.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/21 13/9

Move up to the 21 point for defense against getting trapped and for offense in order to increase shot chances.

This move is not coming under the gun, because there is no alternative constructive move. In addition our board is already strong and the race is still on. Hesitation will probably result in improved priming or attacking chances for Neil and timing problems for us due to disconnection of our checkers.



Neil Kazaross: 61 13/6


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-BBb-bBb--b-ebAA---:0:0:1:53:7:8:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBC-B-a-cDb--b-db--AA-:0:0:1:41:7:8:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout123/18eq: +0.236
Player:
Opponent:
51.12% (G:15.83% B:1.32%)
48.88% (G:14.19% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.230...+0.242) - [50.7%]
Duration: 11 hours 16 minutes
2.playedRollout123/22 13/9eq: +0.236 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
50.71% (G:16.49% B:1.04%)
49.29% (G:13.41% B:1.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.230...+0.242) - [48.3%]
Duration: 11 hours 16 minutes
3.Rollout26/1* eq: +0.217 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
48.16% (G:17.82% B:0.93%)
51.84% (G:15.13% B:1.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.201...+0.234) - [1.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
4.Rollout213/9 6/5eq: +0.191 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
49.60% (G:16.37% B:0.71%)
50.40% (G:13.57% B:1.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.176...+0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
5.Rollout213/8eq: +0.181 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
49.27% (G:16.17% B:0.71%)
50.73% (G:13.21% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.167...+0.195) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
6.Rollout224/23 13/9eq: +0.153 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
48.53% (G:15.87% B:0.81%)
51.47% (G:13.14% B:1.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.137...+0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66689336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66689336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 23/22 13/9
[ 9] 13/8
[ 8] 24/23 13/9
[ 2] 23/18
[ 2] 13/9 6/5
[ 1] 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/22 13/9

When I first saw this position, my first instinct was to attack with 6/1* but I quickly realised that this was too big. The more balanced play of 23/22 13/9 gives us builders for the 7 and 4 points, and 23/22 gives us more outfield coverage.

So what would it take to make 6/1* correct? If we bought a tenth checker into the zone, that also is a direct cover by playing 13/6, then 6/1* becomes the correct play. If we move that checker to the 8 point instead, then after the roll we will be up by 9 pips and it becomes correct to simply play 23/18.

But here with only 9 checkers in the zone, 23/22 13/9 would be my play.



Neil Kazaross: 63 24/15


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-BAb-cCb--b-db-A-A-:0:0:1:43:7:8:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdDa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:61:7:8:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout124/23 11/5eq: +0.386
Player:
Opponent:
54.94% (G:15.08% B:0.99%)
45.06% (G:11.28% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.370...+0.401) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout111/5 6/5eq: +0.352 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
53.73% (G:15.83% B:1.19%)
46.27% (G:12.27% B:1.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.338...+0.367) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
3.Rollout124/18 6/5eq: +0.339 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
55.00% (G:13.68% B:0.87%)
45.00% (G:12.40% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.326...+0.352) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 24/23 11/5
[ 6] 24/18 6/5
[ 5] 11/5 6/5
[ 2] 13/7 8/7
[ 1] 11/5 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 11/5

We should play the 6 by moving 11/5.

The 1 is more interesting. There is something to be said for 6/5, getting ready to attack, but I like the diversification that 24/23 gives. After 24/23, we will hit any lone checkers that Neil plays off his mid point.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/23 11/5

24/23 11/5: This move brings one checker closer to the attacking zone and flexibility to the other side of the board.

24/18 6/5 makes no sense since it gives black unnecessary attacking chances, and brings no checker closer to the zone.

11/5 6/5 with best distribution on our own side of the board may be a contender. Given a choice in the opening you should prefer a play that brings improvement on both sides of the board rather than a play that works better on only one side of the board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--aBD-C---dDa--c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:62:7:8:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout121/15 13/11eq: -0.591
Player:
Opponent:
43.12% (G:10.37% B:1.05%)
56.88% (G:20.18% B:1.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.597...-0.584) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout121/13eq: -0.613 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
42.15% (G:9.32% B:0.73%)
57.85% (G:19.43% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.619...-0.608) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 hours 26 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/15 13/11.

I have to play 21/15, and then the decision to lift to the 13 point or to make a point in my outfield with 13/11 occurs frequently. Making the point gives me more structure and flexibility which is important both for the short and long term. However, I don’t want to be hit on 13 rolls when they have the stronger homeboard, and their 5 point.

If their back checkers weren’t split, they’d only have two shots at my blot on my 11 point and I’d lift 15/13 but here they have 6 shots at that blot. The 11 point may be of blocking value if those split checkers anchor forward. The 11 point also will provide a secure supply of builders. Since I am only leaving 7 more shots to build an asset early in the game, I will risk making my 11 point.



USBGF Members: 42 8/4 6/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBC-B-a-cDb--c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:31:7:8:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.592
Player:
Opponent:
43.34% (G:11.21% B:1.14%)
56.66% (G:20.94% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.606...-0.578) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.Rollout115/11eq: -0.691 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
41.85% (G:9.09% B:0.85%)
58.15% (G:21.69% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.704...-0.677) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 6/5.

Last turn I chose to make an asset. This turn I can make my 5 point, which is basically my best asset. This has to be worth 13 shots since if I play 15/11 there are some bad blotting shots next turn.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBC-B-a-cDb--b-db--AA-:0:0:1:41:7:8:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:7:8:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout113/11 6/5eq: +0.200
Player:
Opponent:
50.86% (G:14.51% B:1.19%)
49.14% (G:15.48% B:2.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.183...+0.216) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: +0.152 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
50.16% (G:13.86% B:0.94%)
49.84% (G:14.09% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.136...+0.167) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/11 6/5
[ 9] 24/23 13/11


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 6/5

With a 21, I will slot at every score except when trailing Post Crawford at an even away score, then I will split.

So trailing 4 away 3 away, we should slot 13/11 6/5 as normal.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/11 6/5

We are gammon go and want the 5 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---AD-C--AeD---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:32:7:8:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/21 13/11eq: -0.465
Player:
Opponent:
44.56% (G:12.37% B:1.32%)
55.44% (G:17.55% B:1.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.471...-0.458) - [99.9%]
Duration: 13 hours 45 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 24/21eq: -0.478 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
43.86% (G:11.58% B:1.21%)
56.14% (G:17.43% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.484...-0.472) - [0.1%]
Duration: 13 hours 21 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 13/10eq: -0.479 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
43.64% (G:12.35% B:1.37%)
56.36% (G:17.25% B:1.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.485...-0.473) - [0.1%]
Duration: 14 hours 10 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 13/11.

For money play, the normal 32 response to 21 13/11 6/5 is to make the major split, trying for an advanced anchor to counter their 5 point which they will usually make. This score shouldn’t change anything, as I still want that anchor. As a general rule, if you don’t know how to respond to your opponent’s opening roll, playing 32S (24/21 13/11) is rarely far wrong unless there’s clearly something else that must be done. Here I do know what to play, and that is the major split.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--aAD-C--AdDa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:61:7:8:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 42
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 83
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBCBBB------A-----d--cbeA:1:1:1:52:7:6:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 13/11eq: -0.906
Player:
Opponent:
4.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.81% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.907...-0.905) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second
2.Rollout1Bar/20 3/1eq: -0.910 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
4.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.78% (G:0.61% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.911...-0.910) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/20 6/4eq: -0.923 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
3.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.22% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.925...-0.922) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second
4.Rollout1Bar/20 4/2eq: -0.928 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
3.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.55% (G:0.79% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.929...-0.927) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 03 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/20 5/3eq: -0.928 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
3.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.44% (G:0.97% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.929...-0.927) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds
6.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.973 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
1.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.71% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.974...-0.973) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/20 13/11
[ 7] b/20 3/1
[ 6] b/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20 13/11

Should we stay on the 20 point or continue 20/18?

If we stay what numbers would Neil hit us with? Neil should not hit with 51, 41, 31, 21 or 11. With 11 it is correct to just play 1/Off(4). So, we risk nothing by staying and may get lucky and get a shot. Added to that the fact that we are not wasting any pips with 13/11 and we should play Bar/20 13/11.

The take away here is to not just to look at the shots that could hit, but to look deeper and look at the shots that your opponent should hit with.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/20 13/11

A pick and pass will actually increase our shot chances. The race is not an option.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 42
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBCBBB----A-------dA-cbe-:1:1:-1:33:7:6:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout16/3(4)eq: +0.979
Player:
Opponent:
99.03% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
0.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.978...+0.979) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21.5 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off(2)eq: +0.902 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
95.92% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
4.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.902...+0.903) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14.0 seconds
3.Rollout16/Off 3/Off(2)eq: +0.895 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
95.21% (G:1.05% B:0.00%)
4.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.894...+0.896) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.8 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3(4).

I can almost never win a gammon from here, so I should simply play to almost certainly lock up the game.



USBGF Members: 42 20/16 11/9
Neil Kazaross: 33 3/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 32 16/14 9/6
Neil Kazaross: 65 3/0(2)
USBGF Members: 22 14/6
Neil Kazaross: 43 3/0(2)
USBGF Members: 54 5/0 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 33 3/0(2) 2/0 1/0


Neil Kazaross wins two points, and leads 3-away/4-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:7:8:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 58
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBBBB-A--------b-d-Bdad-:1:1:1:51:7:6:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout18/3 2/1eq: -0.527
Player:
Opponent:
21.92% (G:0.62% B:0.01%)
78.08% (G:0.88% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.529...-0.524) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout121/16 2/1eq: -0.546 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
21.42% (G:0.62% B:0.01%)
78.58% (G:1.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.548...-0.544) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout18/2eq: -0.551 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
19.83% (G:0.59% B:0.01%)
80.17% (G:1.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.553...-0.548) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout121/16 8/7eq: -0.561 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
20.40% (G:0.67% B:0.01%)
79.60% (G:1.12% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.563...-0.559) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 27 seconds
5.Rollout121/15eq: -0.563 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
20.05% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)
79.95% (G:1.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.565...-0.561) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds
6.Rollout121/20 8/3eq: -0.567 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
21.04% (G:1.26% B:0.02%)
78.96% (G:3.28% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.569...-0.565) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 08 seconds
7.Rollout16/1 2/1eq: -0.569 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
18.98% (G:0.44% B:0.01%)
81.02% (G:1.47% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.571...-0.566) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 8/3 2/1
[11] 21/20 8/3
[10] 21/16 2/1
[ 2] 6/1 2/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 58
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 87
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBCBBB----------b-d-Bdad-:1:1:-1:21:7:6:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout13/2 3/1eq: +0.536
Player:
Opponent:
79.01% (G:0.79% B:0.00%)
20.99% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.533...+0.539) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout13/1 2/1eq: +0.423 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
74.22% (G:0.56% B:0.00%)
25.78% (G:0.67% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.420...+0.427) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 15 seconds
3.Rollout16/3eq: +0.399 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:
72.65% (G:0.73% B:0.00%)
27.35% (G:0.80% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.396...+0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 3/2 3/1.

They have to run a checker or break their board next roll so I want to option to pick and pass. Therefore, 3/2 3/1 is automatic.



USBGF Members: 62 21/13


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 55
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBCBBB------A---b-d-Abbe-:1:1:-1:41:7:6:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/4* 4/3eq: +0.622
Player:
Opponent:
82.15% (G:0.97% B:0.00%)
17.85% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.620...+0.624) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout16/1eq: +0.395 (-0.227)
Player:
Opponent:
72.87% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
27.13% (G:0.47% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.392...+0.398) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4*/3.

According to plan, I should pick and pass here and leave just 3 shots now, to greatly improve my safety for later. If I just play safely 6/1, they can just move their outfield checker and wait, leaving me with many blotting rolls. Also, by hitting I take their racing 66 away from them and reduce the effects of their 55. Looking further, I really have too many chances to blot after 6/1 over the next couple of rolls and picking and passing is even more clear than I thought.



USBGF Members: 66 no play
Neil Kazaross: 62 8/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 42
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 83
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBCBBB------A-----d--cbeA:1:1:1:52:7:6:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 83
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCA---------cce-BbAb-:1:1:1:64:7:6:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout17/1 6/2eq: -0.674
Player:
Opponent:
19.00% (G:0.84% B:0.06%)
81.00% (G:7.90% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.677...-0.671) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout17/1 5/1eq: -0.688 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
18.53% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)
81.47% (G:8.04% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.691...-0.684) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout121/11eq: -0.739 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
18.89% (G:1.27% B:0.04%)
81.11% (G:11.70% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.743...-0.736) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 00 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10266586
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] 7/1 6/2
[ 3] 21/11
[ 3] 7/1 5/1
[ 1] 21/15 7/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/1 6/2

Firstly, there is no way we should leave the 21 point anchor, to do so would be to let Neil attac

So the 6 has to be 7/1. Next, we want to keep our board as strong as possible so we should play 6/2.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 7/1 6/2

This is kind of a forced move. We must not expose two blots to Neil´s attack. We keep our board.

This was my first thought. Of course I checked with XG and it turned out that the difference between both plays (21/11 is the other play) is not as clear as expected. Why? We are down in the race by far. Our game plan is hitting a shot and not winning the race. 21/11 loses more gammons. How can this play not be anything but a considerable blunder?

My guess is that the reason lies in our board which is much stronger than Neil’s board. This results in only a small increase of gammons by playing 21/11. Neil has to avoid shots and due to his weak homeboard, he is liable to leaving a shot anyway, no matter if we hold the anchor or only two blots in his homeboard. Running increases our winning chances in the race by a bit more than the increase of winning chances for Neil by the additional attacking chances. Due to the only moderate increase of gammon losses the overall loss by running is small. When the racing lead is less it may be correct to run in similar positions when the opponent has only a 3 point board although it looks scary and gammonish.

Remember: Always think twice!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 83
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBBBB----------cce-BbAb-:1:1:-1:41:7:6:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/2* 2/1eq: +0.613
Player:
Opponent:
80.10% (G:5.20% B:0.04%)
19.90% (G:0.76% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.610...+0.617) - [99.8%]
Duration: 10 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout18/3eq: +0.606 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
79.48% (G:5.42% B:0.07%)
20.52% (G:0.71% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.603...+0.610) - [0.2%]
Duration: 10 minutes 28 seconds
3.Rollout16/1eq: +0.598 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
79.49% (G:4.98% B:0.06%)
20.51% (G:0.77% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.595...+0.602) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10266586
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/2*/1.

This is a tough choice between 8/3 keeping all my checkers in play, and picking and passing in attempt to drive their blot forward so I have room to play behind it. Picking and passing looks obvious since it retains spares on my three highest points, and I want to use them to make my 5 point as soon as possible. However, burned checkers come at a cost, and a key consideration towards not hitting is that they will have to weaken somewhere if left alone. However, as I retain a second spare on my 6 point and they will often weaken after pick and pass, that is my choice.



USBGF Members: 65 b/14


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBBBB-------A--ccd-Bb-c-:1:1:-1:64:7:6:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout18/2 7/3eq: +0.508
Player:
Opponent:
77.84% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
22.16% (G:0.64% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.504...+0.511) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: +0.488 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
77.16% (G:0.88% B:0.01%)
22.84% (G:0.54% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.485...+0.492) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85523989
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2 7/3.

I want to clear my two outside points, so I play 8/2 and then look for the best 4. I’d go with 6/2 if they had to run off the anchor next turn so I could attack, but here I think 7/3 is a bit better to enable me to hopefully quickly clear both outside points.
7/3 gives me a bad 63 whereas 6/2 leaves a bad 66. This could swing things the other way, but 7/3 allows my to clear the bar point with 64 and 54 and just looks more normal to my eyes.



USBGF Members: 42 14/8
Neil Kazaross: 64 7/3 7/1


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 58
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBBBB-A--------b-d-Bdad-:1:1:1:51:7:6:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBD---A---b--cce-B-Ab-:1:1:1:43:7:6:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout123/16eq: -0.464
Player:
Opponent:
24.07% (G:1.07% B:0.03%)
75.93% (G:1.95% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.467...-0.460) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 11 seconds
2.playedRollout110/7 6/2eq: -0.502 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
24.47% (G:2.30% B:0.11%)
75.53% (G:6.17% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.506...-0.498) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 53 seconds
3.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.512 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
24.20% (G:2.11% B:0.08%)
75.80% (G:6.51% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.516...-0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 42 seconds
4.Rollout123/20 6/2eq: -0.567 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
21.08% (G:1.13% B:0.03%)
78.92% (G:4.34% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.571...-0.563) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68264084
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 10/7 6/2
[ 5] 23/16
[ 2] 23/20 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/16

If we leave our rear most checker back on the 23 point by playing 10/7 6/2, what rolls by Neil leave a shot? 63 leaves an indirect, and many rolls play awkwardly but that checker on the 23 point is not increasing our contact much.

23/16 increases our contact and forces Neil to play some of his rolls more cautiously. For example, if we play 23/16, then it forces Neil to play 61 8/1 instead of 11/5 6/5.

I like the increase in contact so let’s play 23/16.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 23/16

My first idea was to play 10/7 6/2, which continues the idea of waiting for a shot with maximum contact and improving our own homeboard . While I was typing my comment for this move I took the opportunity to think twice and I saw that we might be forced to leave the anchor on the 21 point while our last checker is still stuck on the 23 point, leaving us in a very gammonish position. Over the board I might have played 10/7 6/2 without even understanding that this play is at least doubtful. Anyhow we now have reason enough to look out for an alternative play:

Bridging the 7 pip gap between our anchor and the 14 point will bring no shots since all rolls play safe for Neil but it freezes the checkers the 14 point. If Neil rolls 61, 62 or 63 he can only make his 5 point by leaving a direct shot. All 6’s will be bad numbers for him now. After the move, we will be 19 pips down, which means that our racing chances are not completely gone and we will have some shot chances in addition, in particular when we can perpetuate Neil’s gap on his 5 point. If we get hit, we will increase contact with less risk of being forced to leave the 21 point prematurely. The double benefit of creating bad sixes for Neil and avoiding the risk of having two blots under attack in Neil’s homeboard would make me play 23/16 over the board if only I would think twice. Always think twice! Never mind how self evident the move may seem.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCA------b--cce-B-Ab-:1:1:-1:44:7:6:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout111/3(2)eq: +0.633
Player:
Opponent:
81.12% (G:4.65% B:0.04%)
18.88% (G:0.78% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.629...+0.636) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 34 seconds
2.Rollout111/7(2) 6/2*(2) eq: +0.539 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
77.21% (G:4.70% B:0.03%)
22.79% (G:1.69% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.535...+0.542) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout111/7 6/2*(3) eq: +0.374 (-0.258)
Player:
Opponent:
71.06% (G:5.15% B:0.03%)
28.94% (G:4.08% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.370...+0.378) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout17/3(2) 6/2*(2) eq: +0.363 (-0.270)
Player:
Opponent:
68.88% (G:8.77% B:0.10%)
31.12% (G:4.90% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.359...+0.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68264084
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/3(2).

A nice roll for me, and when rolling doubles that you expect to move in pairs, look at it this way. 11/7(2) is obviously the first two, and then looking at the position 7/3(2) looks considerably less awkward than pointing on the 2 point which leaves a blotting 63 for starters. So I play 11/3(2) and I like my position. I am not terribly concerned about the blot on my 2 point with this much diversification and noting that they probably only have one roll before something has to give somewhere.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 83
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCA---------cce-BbAb-:1:1:1:64:7:6:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 102
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 133
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABCD-------b-Aebd-B-Ab-:1:1:1:62:7:6:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout116/10 5/3eq: -0.480
Player:
Opponent:
25.31% (G:3.07% B:0.04%)
74.69% (G:6.70% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.485...-0.476) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout116/8eq: -0.517 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
24.75% (G:3.10% B:0.07%)
75.25% (G:8.49% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.522...-0.512) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 39 seconds
3.Rollout116/10 6/4eq: -0.527 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
24.37% (G:2.90% B:0.05%)
75.63% (G:8.50% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.532...-0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 31 seconds
4.Rollout123/15eq: -0.533 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
22.18% (G:1.33% B:0.05%)
77.82% (G:3.98% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.537...-0.529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout123/21 16/10eq: -0.535 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
21.39% (G:1.09% B:0.03%)
78.61% (G:2.60% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.538...-0.531) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68264084
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 16/10 5/3
[ 2] 23/21 16/10
[ 1] 16/10 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/10 5/3

Use the 2 to play 5/3, giving us a stronger board.

Then there is no way we should run off our 21 point anchor so the 6 has to be played with the only other legal 6 or 16/10.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 16/10 5/3

This is neither a position nor the score to play gammon save too early. We should go for victory. If Neil held the 5 point the decision would be difficult. I probably would recommend the same move due to the score.



Neil Kazaross: 21 8/7 8/6


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBBD---A---b--cce-B-Ab-:1:1:1:43:7:6:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10