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is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 117  
11 point match  
pip: 140 score: 4 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AbBCBBBaabBcbbbA:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:11:10  
to play 51 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/20 6/5  eq: +0.239  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/20 3/2  eq: +0.230 (0.009)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13280817 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/20 6/5
[ 5] b/20 3/2
Mary Hickey recommends: b/20 6/5
The 5 is forced, and the ace is almost as clear: 6/5 allows us to leave the point we want next slotted, but 3/2 pushes it down a spot. I don’t see any reason to make the other play–it “saves a 5”, but I don’t see us running short of 5s, whether we get hit again or not.
is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 117  
11 point match  
pip: 134 score: 4 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AbCBBBBaabBcAbbb:0:0:1:43:4:5:0:11:10  
to play 43 
1.  Rollout^{1}  12/5*  eq: 0.275  
 
2.  Rollout^{1}  13/9 12/9  eq: 0.313 (0.038)  
 
^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13280817 Moves: 4ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 12/5*.
Bombs away here, as I am happy to attack with 12/5*. This leaves 16 return shots which I might survive with a good response and 16 chances for my opponents to dance, after which I am in good shape and can hopefully cover my 5 point and soon hop a checker out with a 6 and be on the way to winning a gammon. If the score were gammon save, I think I’d have to wimp and just make my 9 point.
USBGF Members: 64 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 110  
11 point match  
pip: 139 score: 4 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AbCBBBBabBcabbbA:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10  
on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in XG Roller++  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  52.72% (G:28.81% B:0.35%)  52.56% (G:29.05% B:0.38%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  47.28% (G:9.53% B:0.38%)  47.44% (G:9.48% B:0.37%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.285  +0.598 
Cubeful Equities  
No double:  +0.224  
Double/Take:  +0.047 (0.177)  
Double/Pass:  +1.000 (+0.776)  
Best Cube action: No double / Take  
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.6% 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross does not double.
I think I now have some advantage, but I need to accomplish some of my threats prior to doubling.
Neil Kazaross: 63 21/18 8/5
USBGF Members: 64 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 101  
11 point match  
pip: 139 score: 4 is USBGF Members  
XGID=AaCBBBBaaaBcbbbbA:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:11:10  
on roll, cube action? 
Analyzed in XG Roller++  No double  Double/Take 
Player Winning Chances:  73.34% (G:47.97% B:0.43%)  73.68% (G:47.68% B:0.41%) 
Opponent Winning Chances:  26.66% (G:3.45% B:0.14%)  26.32% (G:3.60% B:0.14%) 
Cubeless Equities  +0.986  +2.049 
Cubeful Equities  
No double:  +1.038  
Double/Take:  +1.747 (+0.709)  
Double/Pass:  +1.000 (0.038)  
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass  
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 5.1% 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross does not double.
This joker followed by their dance has left me in a very powerful position from which I can win many gammons. At this score, a cubeless gammon is worth somewhat more than usual to me since it puts me at a critical score 4away from victory. When I combine that with how poorly most of the reader’s entering rolls play due to their stripped position, I think I should play on here.
64 closes my board, 6’s escape, 5’s and 7’s make my 8 point and my other rolls are OK.
I think this is too good, and if not it must be close and I may be able to offer a more interesting (i.e. one where the readers may err) cube later on.
Neil Kazaross: 66 21/3 15/9
USBGF Members: 41 no play
is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 77  
11 point match  
pip: 139 score: 4 is USBGF Members  
XGID=ACBBBBaaaBcbbcbA:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:11:10  
to play 51 
1.  XG Roller++  13/8 6/5  eq: +1.502  
 
2.  XG Roller++  13/8 9/8  eq: +1.500 (0.002)  

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 6/5.
It seems automatic to stack both checkers on the 8 pt but that gives me 6 blotting 6’s if my opponents roll anything but a 52 to escape. Maybe it is worth leaving a 22 shot with 6/5 to avoid this.
Let me do some math to see if it helps starting with stacking the 8 pt. I will be hit 6/36 x 11/36 of the time next roll on the 2 point and that is 66/1296. I expect I am a slight dog when hit so lets assume that I lose 36 of those 1296 games.
If I leave the 22 super joker I am hit 1/36 or 36/1296 of the time and will be a clear dog (but not dead yet) so let’s say I lose 22 of those games. This is looking to be worth the risk but note that 66 blots. 66 occurs 1/36 of the time and is hit 11/36 of the time and I will be a substantial dog after that and expect to lose maybe 8 of those 1296 games. Well, 22+8 is less than 36 so the math (assuming that I didn’t butcher it) seems to favor leaving 22 now.
Additionally after playing 6/5 I have one more roll (11) to make my close out. Also after 6/5 I can more safely clear my 8 pt with a roll like 43 after my opps dance and leave only 1 shot. Everything seems to be slightly in favor of playing 13/8 6/5 leaving the 22 super joker.
is Neil Kazaross score: 5 pip: 71  
11 point match  
pip: 139 score: 4 is USBGF Members  
XGID=ACBBBBabBbcbcbA:0:0:1:22:4:5:0:11:10  
to play 22 
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10