USBGF OLM 2019-02-18

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 149
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB--D-CA--eC---cae----B-:0:0:1:64:0:2:0:11:10
to play 64

1.Rollout124/18* 13/9eq: +0.638
Player:
Opponent:
63.21% (G:20.41% B:0.93%)
36.79% (G:8.20% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.626...+0.650) - [92.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
2.xgRollout124/18* 18/14eq: +0.625 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
62.45% (G:21.54% B:0.95%)
37.55% (G:8.74% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.613...+0.637) - [6.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
3.playedRollout124/18* 6/2* eq: +0.619 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
61.12% (G:25.34% B:0.82%)
38.88% (G:9.31% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.610...+0.629) - [0.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
4.Rollout18/2* 6/2eq: +0.589 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
59.88% (G:29.79% B:0.65%)
40.12% (G:8.40% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.579...+0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/18* 6/2*
[ 9] 24/18* 13/9
[ 5] 8/2* 6/2
[ 1] 24/22 24/18*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18* 13/9

We have to hit 24/18* to send one of Neil’s checkers back, to remove one of his builders and to take a lead in the race.

The problem I have with the double hit 6/2* is that it duplicates 6’s to anchor and to cover.

We do not want to give Neil good 6’s from the bar so 18/14 looks tempting but I like making the 9 point with 13/9. The 9 point is an asset and we should usually play offensively before we play defensively.

If Neil hits us with a 6 from the bar we will have lots of returns shots so that pushes me towards 13/9.



Neil Kazaross: 52 b/23* b/20


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB-aC-CA--eC---cAe----AA:0:0:1:33:0:2:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 2/22 700p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-02-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-CD-B---cDa--bbc-b-AA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout124/20 13/11eq: -0.486
Player:
Opponent:
39.41% (G:10.80% B:0.48%)
60.59% (G:22.25% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.490...-0.482) - [63.7%]
Duration: 9 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.487 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
38.83% (G:11.02% B:0.46%)
61.17% (G:20.35% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.491...-0.482) - [36.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 6/2eq: -0.493 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
39.26% (G:10.35% B:0.42%)
60.74% (G:22.19% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.498...-0.489) - [0.3%]
Duration: 10 hours 35 minutes
4.Rollout224/20 6/4eq: -0.515 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
39.14% (G:10.43% B:0.47%)
60.86% (G:25.13% B:1.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.527...-0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
5.Rollout224/22 13/9eq: -0.519 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
38.19% (G:10.82% B:0.51%)
61.81% (G:21.67% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.530...-0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
6.Rollout213/7eq: -0.535 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
37.55% (G:10.68% B:0.44%)
62.45% (G:20.86% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.545...-0.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
7.Rollout213/11 6/2eq: -0.565 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
37.20% (G:10.10% B:0.43%)
62.80% (G:22.49% B:1.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.575...-0.555) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 24/20 13/11
[17] 8/4 6/4
[ 3] 13/7
[ 3] 24/22 6/2
[ 2] 13/11 6/2
[ 1] 24/22 13/9
[ 1] 13/9 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20 13/11

This is a tough play. I would let my teammates in a chouette convince me of 8/4 6/4, 24/20 13/11 or 24/22 6/2. All have pros and all have cons. Being the Captain in a chouette where the team was split on the play would be hard.

I would find it hard to play 24/22 6/2 – we do not want to put a checker behind Neil’s anchor. I do not like 24/22 13/9 as it gives Neil a good 6 to hit and escape.

8/4 6/4 makes a good point but also gives up a good point – this is really upgrading a point but leaving Neil shots. It could be right.

Over the board I would use the saying – ‘when your opponent has an advanced anchor, you need one too’ going through my head and play 24/20 13/11. The rolls that make Neil’s 5 point do involve some that give up his 7 or 8 points so we will have return shots.

I have a low confidence in this position but looking at it with more time than I would have over the board, I am still unsure. Over the board, I would use the saying above and play 24/20 13/11.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-CD-B--AcCa--bbcAb-A--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60.71% (G:22.21% B:1.15%) 60.75% (G:23.00% B:1.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.29% (G:10.93% B:0.48%) 39.25% (G:11.24% B:0.50%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.336 +0.695
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.483±0.010 (+0.472..+0.493)
     Double/Take:+0.384 (-0.099)±0.022 (+0.363..+0.406)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.517)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I may be close to a cube here, but I don’t think I can win this enough to justify cubing. I have a nice pointing threat but then I often leave a blot which they may hit as I have to break a stripped point or they may anchor on my 2 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-CD-B--AcCa--bbcAb-A--:0:0:-1:66:0:0:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout122/16 11/5* 8/2*(2) eq: +0.748
Player:
Opponent:
67.15% (G:37.97% B:1.83%)
32.85% (G:9.49% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.739...+0.757) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 11/5* 8/2*(2) eq: +0.713 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
64.94% (G:38.82% B:1.74%)
35.06% (G:8.82% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.703...+0.722) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.Rollout122/10(2)eq: +0.662 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
68.72% (G:11.15% B:0.43%)
31.28% (G:5.77% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.654...+0.670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
4.Rollout122/16(2) 8/2*(2) eq: +0.645 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
65.11% (G:22.71% B:0.93%)
34.89% (G:7.47% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.636...+0.654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/16 11/5* 8/2*(2).

A great roll for me. If this were DMP, I’d think about coming around with 22/10(2) but that clearly won’t win enough gammons so I double hit and now evaluate the final 6. Players have misplayed the final 6 here in similar positions for decades after having been taught to just concentrate on the blitzing side of the board. But, the problem is that the blitz doesn’t always work and sometimes you get hit from the bar and the game continues and you can get over-extended or have several checkers back.

13/7 does place a new checker in the attacking zone, but it doesn’t give me a new diversified builder. As I am ahead by 29 pips after the play I must take a long look at 22/16. This risks a crushing 55 and a nasty 33, but there are many plusses to this play. If hit I may be able to enter and make the 16 point or enter and hit on the 14 point. The fact that it gives me a 65 to close my 5 point makes my play-ons stronger when they roll poorly.



USBGF Members: 41 b/24


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CD-Ba-AcC----bcab-bAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.56% (G:44.38% B:1.94%) 75.19% (G:46.63% B:1.95%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.44% (G:5.36% B:0.29%) 24.81% (G:5.99% B:0.33%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.926 +1.907
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.082±0.007 (+1.075..+1.089)
     Double/Take:+1.701 (+0.619)±0.012 (+1.689..+1.713)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.082)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 11.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I believe that I have enough good rolls to make my gammon chances adequate for me to be too good here. My position is good enough for me to be able to survive most poor sequences.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CD-Ba-AcC----bcab-bAA:0:0:-1:64:0:0:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout17/1* 5/1eq: +1.155
Player:
Opponent:
77.25% (G:57.54% B:1.77%)
22.75% (G:5.76% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.147...+1.163) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout122/16 5/1* eq: +0.906 (-0.249)
Player:
Opponent:
71.37% (G:39.04% B:1.28%)
28.63% (G:7.09% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.896...+0.916) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
3.Rollout116/10 5/1* eq: +0.769 (-0.386)
Player:
Opponent:
67.04% (G:41.42% B:1.34%)
32.96% (G:8.98% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.761...+0.777) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/1* 5/1.

Normally it is good to roll large numbers when blitzing since more checkers can end up in range of my open points. This fine roll makes the ace point and should leave me again too good unless they enter both.



USBGF Members: 11 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CD-Ba-AcC----ac-b-bbB:0:0:-1:31:0:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout113/9eq: +1.292
Player:
Opponent:
81.00% (G:65.86% B:2.29%)
19.00% (G:5.09% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.285...+1.298) - [94.6%]
Duration: 50 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout122/21 13/10eq: +1.284 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
80.56% (G:63.06% B:2.14%)
19.44% (G:4.18% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.278...+1.290) - [5.4%]
Duration: 51 minutes 07 seconds
3.Rollout122/18eq: +1.266 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
80.15% (G:58.94% B:1.90%)
19.85% (G:4.16% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.259...+1.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 51 seconds
4.Rollout116/15 13/10eq: +1.228 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
79.21% (G:63.76% B:2.05%)
20.79% (G:5.66% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.221...+1.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9.

I’ll play 13/9, which creates a new builder for both my open points — this looks clear. I won’t worry about dodging their entering jokers until there’s nothing else to worry about.



USBGF Members: 42 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CD-Ba-AbC--a-ac-b-bbB:0:0:-1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout116/14* 14/8eq: +1.554
Player:
Opponent:
87.52% (G:75.49% B:2.89%)
12.48% (G:2.16% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.548...+1.560) - [99.7%]
Duration: 47 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout122/14* eq: +1.542 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
87.44% (G:72.62% B:2.80%)
12.56% (G:2.05% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.535...+1.548) - [0.3%]
Duration: 49 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/14*/8.

Here I hit and bring a new builder. As I can handle my blocked 55 and 33 just fine, I see no real need to play 22/16 at the expense of a new diversified builder.



USBGF Members: 11 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CD-B---bC--aaac-b-bbC:0:0:-1:51:0:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout122/16eq: +1.632
Player:
Opponent:
89.98% (G:77.08% B:2.85%)
10.02% (G:1.25% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.626...+1.638) - [100.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 53 seconds
2.xgRollout122/21 13/8eq: +1.617 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
89.46% (G:77.80% B:2.86%)
10.54% (G:1.34% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.611...+1.623) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout113/7eq: +1.582 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
88.56% (G:77.13% B:2.77%)
11.44% (G:1.73% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.576...+1.587) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/16.

Since I cannot create any more builders or close a point, it is time to hop out.



USBGF Members: 52 b/20


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-Ba--bC--aaacAb-bbB:0:0:-1:61:0:0:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout116/10 6/5* eq: +1.536
Player:
Opponent:
86.97% (G:74.78% B:2.91%)
13.03% (G:2.82% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.531...+1.541) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 6/5* eq: +1.519 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
86.42% (G:73.55% B:2.79%)
13.58% (G:2.75% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.514...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 59 seconds
3.Rollout116/9eq: +1.447 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
87.23% (G:63.01% B:1.93%)
12.77% (G:1.54% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.440...+1.453) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/10 6/5*.

I should hit loose 6/5* to try to win more gammons and then it is a close call for my 6 but since I will be quite unhappy if they roll their joker 55 after either play, I’ll just bring a new builder with 16/10.



USBGF Members: 41 no play
Neil Kazaross: 65 13/7 10/5
USBGF Members: 62 no play
Neil Kazaross: 54 8/3 7/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 71
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-B---aC--a-abbbbbbC:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.Rollout113/10eq: +1.958
Player:
Opponent:
97.16% (G:94.45% B:4.44%)
2.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.957...+1.960) - [45.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
2.playedRollout113/11 7/6eq: +1.958 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
97.08% (G:94.39% B:4.54%)
2.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.956...+1.959) - [26.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
3.xgRollout19/8 7/5eq: +1.958 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
97.07% (G:94.42% B:4.56%)
2.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.956...+1.959) - [15.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 9/8eq: +1.958 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
97.12% (G:94.50% B:4.42%)
2.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.956...+1.959) - [13.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
5.Rollout17/4eq: +1.956 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
97.14% (G:94.39% B:4.37%)
2.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.955...+1.958) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
6.Rollout19/6eq: +1.955 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
97.03% (G:94.39% B:4.40%)
2.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.953...+1.956) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 7/6.

I have many choices here, and don’t think playing safe to avoid 66 is best as that can end up awkward later. If I roll boxes after 13/11 7/6 and get hit, I can still play on unless they hit with 66. So that is my flexible choice.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 68
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-B----Ca-a--cbbbbbC:0:0:-1:22:0:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout111/5 6/4eq: +1.972
Player:
Opponent:
97.48% (G:94.84% B:4.56%)
2.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.969...+1.975) - [99.2%]
Duration: 14 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 6/4eq: +1.967 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
97.42% (G:94.78% B:4.25%)
2.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.964...+1.970) - [0.4%]
Duration: 12 minutes 28 seconds
3.xgRollout111/3eq: +1.967 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
97.28% (G:94.66% B:4.54%)
2.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.964...+1.970) - [0.3%]
Duration: 13 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout111/7 6/2eq: +1.952 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
96.89% (G:94.32% B:4.25%)
3.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.949...+1.955) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 19 seconds
5.Rollout111/7 9/7 6/4eq: +1.950 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
96.91% (G:94.18% B:4.21%)
3.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.947...+1.953) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 05 seconds
6.Rollout111/5 9/7eq: +1.945 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
96.39% (G:93.39% B:5.28%)
3.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.942...+1.949) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/5 6/4.

9/5 and 13/11 are automatic and now I slightly prefer 6/4 to 9/7 as I am sure it is more safe. I really shouldn’t be pushing too hard for a backgammon until I’ve taken a few checkers off and they remain on the bar will all three checkers.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 60
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-B----C--a--bccbbbC:0:0:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout19/Offeq: +1.961
Player:
Opponent:
96.62% (G:93.55% B:6.11%)
3.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.957...+1.964) - [88.1%]
Duration: 15 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout19/4 5/1eq: +1.958 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
97.31% (G:94.81% B:3.89%)
2.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.955...+1.961) - [11.9%]
Duration: 14 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout16/2 6/1eq: +1.947 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
97.69% (G:94.74% B:2.56%)
2.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.944...+1.950) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 24 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/0.

With cube access, I cannot resist the greedy 9/0. This is going against previous advice to not yet play for the backgammon, but if I don’t blot with 66 or 55 this will result in a safe position and if I do blot and get hit I will have several checkers off.



Neil Kazaross: 52 5/0 4/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 44
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-B----C-----bbbbcbC:0:0:-1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout15/3 5/Offeq: +1.956
Player:
Opponent:
96.16% (G:93.05% B:7.09%)
3.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.952...+1.960) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 47 seconds
2.playedRollout16/4 6/1eq: +1.899 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
94.98% (G:91.73% B:5.40%)
5.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.895...+1.903) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4 6/1.

I am not sure here. Clearing the 6 point leaves 3 blotting rolls but a position that can blot later if I roll large numbers for a couple of turns. Clearing the 5 point leaves four blotting numbers but takes a checker off and maybe safer long turn. I’ll clear the 6 point as it seems that I am more likely to be able to keep more points closed for longer with a spare on the 4 point, and if I get hit after a blotting big double I have more checkers off.



USBGF Members: 31 no play
Neil Kazaross: 22 5/3(2) 4/0
USBGF Members: 44 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 29
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-B----C-------bdccC:0:0:-1:33:0:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout13/Off(4)eq: +2.130
Player:
Opponent:
96.56% (G:89.90% B:22.90%)
3.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+2.127...+2.133) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout14/1(2) 3/Off(2)eq: +2.019 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
97.14% (G:93.08% B:9.88%)
2.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+2.016...+2.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 3/0(4).

It seems clear to get greedy and push for the backgammon, again noting my cube access if I get hit.



USBGF Members: 22 no play
Neil Kazaross: 42 4/2 4/0
USBGF Members: 44 b/21(2) b/17
Neil Kazaross: 51 2/0 1/0


Neil Kazaross wins two points and leads 9-away/11-away.



Neil Kazaross: 65 24/13
USBGF Members: 53 8/3 6/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-B---fE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:62:0:2:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout124/16eq: -0.034
Player:
Opponent:
51.43% (G:8.76% B:0.36%)
48.57% (G:13.49% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.056...-0.011) - [99.1%]
Duration: 17 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout224/18 13/11eq: -0.074 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
50.25% (G:10.36% B:0.53%)
49.75% (G:15.96% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.025 (-0.099...-0.049) - [0.9%]
Duration: 17 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 146 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 147 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/16.

It’s clear to run the last checker.



USBGF Members: 54 13/9* 13/8
Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23 13/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 149
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB--D-CA--eC---cae----B-:0:0:1:64:0:2:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-BD-B---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout124/18 13/11eq: +0.253
Player:
Opponent:
55.96% (G:15.02% B:0.67%)
44.04% (G:11.48% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.242...+0.264) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 24/18eq: +0.195 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
55.08% (G:13.43% B:0.62%)
44.92% (G:12.00% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.184...+0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout113/5eq: +0.182 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
53.95% (G:16.22% B:0.67%)
46.05% (G:12.22% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.172...+0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
4.Rollout124/16eq: +0.170 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
54.31% (G:13.90% B:0.64%)
45.69% (G:12.43% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.159...+0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/18 13/11
[20] 13/5
[ 2] 24/16


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

13/5 is too passive, it gives Neil the opportunity to do too many good things. It does unstack the 13 point, but so does 24/18 13/11.

24/18 13/11 is the correct play. It duplicates 3’s for Neil to make his 10 point and to hit us on our 18 point/his 7 point. In the early game, whenever our opponent has a checker on his 10 point and not much other development, we should always consider 24/18.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-BD-B--AdD-a-cAe----A-:0:0:-1:31:0:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout110/7* 8/7eq: -0.166
Player:
Opponent:
46.25% (G:11.64% B:0.51%)
53.75% (G:15.03% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.177...-0.155) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
2.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.353 (-0.188)
Player:
Opponent:
41.55% (G:10.69% B:0.47%)
58.45% (G:16.65% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.364...-0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 22/21eq: -0.362 (-0.196)
Player:
Opponent:
40.28% (G:7.45% B:0.25%)
59.72% (G:10.10% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.372...-0.351) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/7* 8/7.

Three choices here. I can make my 5 point. I can make their 4 point. But these pale in comparison to pointing on my bar point, putting them on the bar, denying them that nice anchor and hoping to retain the initiative with a nice roll next.



USBGF Members: 62 b/23 11/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-CD-B---dD---bbe---AA-:0:0:-1:22:0:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout124/22 13/11 6/4(2)eq: +0.317
Player:
Opponent:
56.94% (G:17.86% B:0.71%)
43.06% (G:10.82% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.306...+0.328) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
2.Rollout17/5(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.240 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
55.44% (G:19.49% B:0.92%)
44.56% (G:14.52% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.229...+0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.187 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:
55.04% (G:17.40% B:1.04%)
44.96% (G:15.72% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.176...+0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 13/11 6/4(2).

A nice roll giving me the advantage. 6/4(2) is a must and then it looks prudent to anchor and play 13/11 rather than playing 7/5(2). 7/5(2) trades a good point for a better one, but I think I need to anchor before their builders attack me. 13/11 creates a builder that can only be hit by four fly shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-CD-B---cDa--bbc-b-AA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-15

[Previous] [Next]

New 11 point match!


USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---BD-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/22 13/10eq: -0.379
Player:
Opponent:
41.65% (G:10.74% B:0.50%)
58.35% (G:18.54% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.384...-0.374) - [99.6%]
Duration: 15 hours 26 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/11eq: -0.388 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
41.73% (G:10.52% B:0.50%)
58.27% (G:18.69% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.393...-0.384) - [0.4%]
Duration: 14 hours 47 minutes
3.Rollout224/22 24/21eq: -0.402 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
41.61% (G:10.13% B:0.54%)
58.39% (G:19.57% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.413...-0.390) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
4.Rollout213/11 13/10eq: -0.412 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
40.74% (G:11.62% B:0.56%)
59.26% (G:19.33% B:1.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.424...-0.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 13/10.

If you don’t know how to respond to almost any opening play with 32 playing the major split is rarely far wrong. But here I know that the minor split is slightly better, perhaps because it avoids attack on their 4 point, which they really want to add to complement their 5 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-BD-B---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 80
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 47
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaEBBB-----------acbbcba-:0:0:1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/4 6/1eq: +0.863
Player:
Opponent:
93.13% (G:5.73% B:0.17%)
6.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.862...+0.863) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44.9 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 5/Offeq: +0.783 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
89.15% (G:5.74% B:0.22%)
10.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.782...+0.784) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.6 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79126210
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 6/4 6/1
[ 3] 5/3 5/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/4 6/1

Even at a normal match score the best play is 6/4 6/1. The alternative wins so few gammons that the extra risk is just not worth it. Here when Gammons are worth nothing to us, we have even more incentive to “clear from the rear and not ask questions.” 6/4 6/1 is the two second play, and looking for alternatives, there is nothing better.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 80
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 40
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaECB------------acbbcba-:0:0:-1:51:10:0:1:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/1 3/2eq: -0.854
Player:
Opponent:
7.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.70% (G:8.38% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.854...-0.854) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout17/1eq: -0.860 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
7.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.00% (G:5.36% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.860...-0.860) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds
3.Rollout17/2 6/5eq: -0.868 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
6.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.38% (G:5.36% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.868...-0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds
4.Rollout16/1 2/1eq: -0.868 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
6.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.38% (G:8.99% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.868...-0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79126210
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1 3/2.

After some consideration it has to be worth spending a pip inside my board so as not to be forced to run away with the next 6 here when I cannot lose a gammon.



USBGF Members: 64 5/1 5/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 74
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 31
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DaEC-------------abbbbcb-:0:0:-1:31:10:0:1:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout17/4 2/1eq: -0.898
Player:
Opponent:
5.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.90% (G:9.53% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.898...-0.898) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30.3 seconds
2.Rollout17/3eq: -0.899 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
5.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.96% (G:9.06% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.899...-0.899) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.5 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50445514
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/4 2/1.

Of course I wait for the hoped for shot. So I’ll play 7/4 and then I think 2/1 is a tad better than 4/3, as while I want to stay off my ace point, having the spare on my 4 point rather than the 3 may allow me to keep more points closed longer during my bearoff and also reduces my chance to blot with an awkward large roll when I bring in my outfield checker as it comes around after hitting. That is, if I end up on my 8 point and roll 54 or 64, I don’t have to blot when coming in with a spare on my 4 point.



USBGF Members: 21 4/2* 3/2
Neil Kazaross: 55 b/5
USBGF Members: 64 4/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 51 5/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 43 3/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 66 6/0(2) 5/0(2)
USBGF Members: 22 3/1(2) 2/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 42 4/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 11 1/0(4)


USBGF Members win one point, and win the match 11-0.

USBGF OLM 2019-02-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 69
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-BBDBC---------c-ccad---:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout17/3 5/3eq: +0.852
Player:
Opponent:
92.61% (G:6.67% B:0.14%)
7.39% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.851...+0.852) - [98.4%]
Duration: 18 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout17/5 7/3eq: +0.851 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
92.56% (G:7.88% B:0.16%)
7.44% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.850...+0.852) - [1.6%]
Duration: 18 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout17/1eq: +0.836 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
91.82% (G:6.14% B:0.10%)
8.18% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.835...+0.837) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24732444
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[42] 7/3 5/3
[ 4] 7/1
[ 1] 7/5 7/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/3 5/3

7/3 5/3 looks best. It leaves no shots from the bar, but still three builders to make the 2 point. We need a really compelling reason to pay now and it’s not here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 63
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-DBCBB---------c-ccad---:0:0:-1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 8/3eq: -0.849
Player:
Opponent:
7.55% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
92.45% (G:3.87% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.849...-0.848) - [97.8%]
Duration: 15 minutes 01 second
2.xgRollout1Bar/23 6/1eq: -0.849 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
7.52% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
92.48% (G:4.97% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.850...-0.849) - [2.2%]
Duration: 14 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73329388
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 8/3.

It hardly matters, but still I refuse to strip the 6 point to slot my ace point when I need to cover my 4 point and my 2 point is open.



USBGF Members: 41 7/6 7/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 91
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 58
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaEBCC----------b-ccae---:0:0:-1:11:10:0:1:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout18/7 5/4 3/2(2)eq: -0.860
Player:
Opponent:
6.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.01% (G:4.29% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.861...-0.860) - [99.8%]
Duration: 32 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout15/4 3/2 3/1eq: -0.861 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
6.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.06% (G:4.57% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.862...-0.861) - [0.2%]
Duration: 29 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout13/2(2) 3/1eq: -0.865 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.26% (G:4.49% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout18/7(2) 3/2(2)eq: -0.865 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.26% (G:4.23% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 48 seconds
5.Rollout18/7 3/2 3/1eq: -0.865 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.27% (G:4.24% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 34 seconds
6.Rollout16/4 3/2(2)eq: -0.866 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.28% (G:4.36% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 02 seconds
7.Rollout18/7(2) 5/4 3/2eq: -0.866 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.28% (G:4.20% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 30 seconds
8.Rollout18/7 3/2(3)eq: -0.866 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
6.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.28% (G:4.22% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 12 seconds
9.Rollout18/7 6/4 3/2eq: -0.866 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
6.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.29% (G:4.21% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.866...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 29 seconds
10.Rollout18/7 5/4 3/1eq: -0.867 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
6.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.34% (G:4.29% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.867...-0.866) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 40 seconds
11.Rollout15/4 3/2(3)eq: -0.867 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
6.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.36% (G:4.44% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.868...-0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 31 seconds
12.Rollout13/1(2)eq: -0.870 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
6.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.48% (G:4.56% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.870...-0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 54 seconds
13.Rollout16/4 3/1eq: -0.870 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
6.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.50% (G:4.49% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.870...-0.870) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 28 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85094473
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/7 5/4 3/2(2).

Now I can fill in my board making a 5 prime and try for a 6 prime or closed board.



USBGF Members: 65 6/0 5/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 87
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 47
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaEBBB----------aacbbcb--:0:0:-1:61:10:0:1:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/1eq: -0.840
Player:
Opponent:
8.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.98% (G:6.78% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.840...-0.839) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout17/1 2/1eq: -0.841 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
7.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.06% (G:6.70% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.842...-0.841) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout17/1 6/5eq: -0.844 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
7.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.18% (G:6.42% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.844...-0.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds
4.Rollout17/1 3/2eq: -0.844 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
7.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.18% (G:6.51% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.844...-0.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
5.Rollout18/2 6/5eq: -0.847 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
7.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.35% (G:6.45% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.847...-0.847) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
6.Rollout18/2 3/2eq: -0.850 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
7.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.52% (G:6.57% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.851...-0.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79126210
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/1.

Now with my board nearly closed I’ll slot my ace point with 8/1, as I will want a closed board if I somehow can hit a shot.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 80
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 47
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaEBBB-----------acbbcba-:0:0:1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 89
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBCCC--AA-----c-ccad---:0:0:1:55:10:0:1:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout111/1* 10/5 6/1eq: +0.812
Player:
Opponent:
90.64% (G:5.10% B:0.07%)
9.36% (G:0.31% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.811...+0.814) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout110/5 7/2(3)eq: +0.807 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
90.38% (G:3.42% B:0.01%)
9.62% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.806...+0.809) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout111/6 7/2(3)eq: +0.807 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
90.34% (G:3.15% B:0.07%)
9.66% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.806...+0.808) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24732444
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 11/1* 10/5 6/1
[ 1] 11/1 7/2(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/1* 10/5 6/1

Both the non-hitting plays that involve 7/2(3) leave Neil 2 rolls to hit us. I see no reason to allow Neil to get lucky.

I like 11/1* 10/5 6/1. It may not be pretty but Neil is on the bar. Our distribution is ok, our 5’s may be awkward but we do not leave those 2 immediate shots.



Neil Kazaross: 53 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 69
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-BBDBC---------c-ccad---:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 97
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBBCB-AABb----c-ccab---:0:0:1:62:10:0:1:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout111/5 9/7eq: +0.830
Player:
Opponent:
91.54% (G:6.87% B:0.14%)
8.46% (G:0.30% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.828...+0.832) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout111/9 11/5eq: +0.825 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
91.28% (G:7.29% B:0.26%)
8.72% (G:0.26% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.823...+0.827) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout111/3eq: +0.822 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
91.13% (G:7.55% B:0.20%)
8.87% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.820...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout111/5 6/4eq: +0.822 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
91.13% (G:7.68% B:0.15%)
8.87% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.820...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 45 seconds
5.Rollout110/4 9/7eq: +0.822 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
91.10% (G:7.43% B:0.10%)
8.90% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.819...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 00 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 11/5 9/7
[ 4] 10/4 9/7
[ 3] 11/9 11/5
[ 1] 11/5 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/5 9/7

In this type of situation we should not be slot the 8 point. There is no need to take an unnecessary risk – we will be up 28 pips in the race after the roll.

So we want to maximize the builders for our 2 and 1 points. 11/5 9/7 would be the two second play and I can see nothing better.

For the record, if Neil’s rearmost checker was still on our 1 point next roll, after we play 11/5 9/7 and we rolled 64, then we should attack 7/1* 5/1 making the point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 89
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBCCC--AAb----c-ccab---:0:0:-1:55:10:0:1:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout113/3(2)eq: -0.842
Player:
Opponent:
7.88% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
92.12% (G:4.69% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.844...-0.840) - [99.3%]
Duration: 6 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout113/3 8/3 6/1eq: -0.845 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
7.71% (G:0.21% B:0.00%)
92.29% (G:5.75% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.847...-0.844) - [0.4%]
Duration: 6 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 13/3 6/1eq: -0.846 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
7.71% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
92.29% (G:5.55% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.847...-0.844) - [0.3%]
Duration: 6 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout113/3 8/3(2)eq: -0.847 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
7.65% (G:0.26% B:0.01%)
92.35% (G:4.98% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.848...-0.845) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24732444
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/3(2).

Here I play 13/3(2), following my general principle in a position like this to stay off my ace point until better points are closed.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 97
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 89
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBCCC--AA-----c-ccad---:0:0:1:55:10:0:1:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Tue 2/12 700p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-02-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--BBBCB----dBB--b-bcab---:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/11 13/9eq: +0.754
Player:
Opponent:
87.82% (G:19.72% B:0.37%)
12.18% (G:1.12% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.751...+0.757) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout114/8eq: +0.702 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
85.28% (G:21.62% B:0.63%)
14.72% (G:2.05% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.699...+0.705) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout114/10 6/4eq: +0.698 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
85.05% (G:19.43% B:0.75%)
14.95% (G:1.80% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.695...+0.700) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 18 seconds
4.Rollout113/7eq: +0.696 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
84.98% (G:21.59% B:0.56%)
15.02% (G:1.82% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.693...+0.699) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 01 second
5.Rollout114/10 13/11eq: +0.691 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
84.85% (G:19.00% B:0.34%)
15.15% (G:2.70% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.688...+0.694) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 16 seconds
6.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: +0.681 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
84.27% (G:19.87% B:0.74%)
15.73% (G:2.21% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.678...+0.684) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 55 seconds
7.Rollout17/5 7/3eq: +0.632 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:
81.81% (G:22.30% B:0.27%)
18.19% (G:2.40% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.629...+0.635) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 13/11 13/9
[ 2] 7/5 7/3
[ 1] 14/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 13/9

We have two choices here, either 14/8 or 13/11 13/9.

14/8 slots the back of the prime and if we get away with it we have a 6 prime. But 5 shots hit – 62, 21 and 22. Do we really need to do this? After the roll we will be ahead in the race by 26 pips. We could just bring checkers into our board and attack Neil’s rearmost checker if it is still there.

13/11 13/9 aims three builders at the 8 point and means that if Neil rolled a 62 from the bar and ran Bar/17, he would be coming out to a triple shot. This aims enough builders at the 8 point, especially as we are ahead in the race by so much.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 104
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--BBBCB-A-Ad-B--b-bcab---:0:0:-1:51:10:0:1:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 13/8eq: -0.772
Player:
Opponent:
11.31% (G:0.94% B:0.04%)
88.69% (G:12.90% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.775...-0.769) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 8/3eq: -0.783 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
10.80% (G:0.77% B:0.03%)
89.20% (G:13.76% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.785...-0.780) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 13/8.

I bring down another builder with 13/8.



USBGF Members: 43 14/11 14/10


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 97
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBBCB-AABc----c-bcab---:0:0:-1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/6eq: -0.833
Player:
Opponent:
8.32% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
91.68% (G:8.70% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.834...-0.832) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.836 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
8.18% (G:0.32% B:0.01%)
91.82% (G:8.17% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.837...-0.835) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout18/6 8/3eq: -0.837 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
8.12% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
91.88% (G:10.22% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.838...-0.836) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 8/3eq: -0.837 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
8.12% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
91.88% (G:9.96% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.838...-0.836) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/6.

I play 13/6, still aiming to make points in my board and hoping that they have an accident on the way to the bank.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 97
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBBCB-AABb----c-ccab---:0:0:1:62:10:0:1:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 123
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CDBB---dBB--b-cc-b---:0:0:1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout18/3* 5/3eq: +0.474
Player:
Opponent:
74.02% (G:10.28% B:0.16%)
25.98% (G:3.63% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.471...+0.477) - [100.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: +0.403 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
70.33% (G:5.36% B:0.23%)
29.67% (G:2.24% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.400...+0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 8/3* 5/3
[ 5] 13/11 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3* 5/3

After the roll if we do not hit, we will be ahead in the race by 13 pips. If we do hit it will be 16 pips.

If we make the safe play of 13/11 13/8, we risk Neil rolling a 6 (look at how 66 plays) and trying to get into the race. So the safe play does involve some risk.

Hitting 8/3* 5/3 does involve 3 return shots from the bar. It would be my 5 second play. I then looked around to find my second best play and I still like the hit. It puts Neil on the bar.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 132
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 116
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--B-BDBA---dBB--b-cc-b---:0:0:-1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 6/4eq: -0.485
Player:
Opponent:
25.45% (G:3.53% B:0.14%)
74.55% (G:11.82% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.487...-0.482) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 8/6eq: -0.497 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
24.83% (G:3.52% B:0.10%)
75.17% (G:12.19% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.500...-0.495) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/21 5/3eq: -0.505 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
24.45% (G:3.24% B:0.12%)
75.55% (G:12.13% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.508...-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/23 8/4eq: -0.527 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
23.33% (G:3.50% B:0.12%)
76.67% (G:10.57% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.530...-0.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/23 13/9eq: -0.528 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
23.34% (G:3.07% B:0.08%)
76.66% (G:10.12% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.531...-0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 6/4.

Things are going from bad to worse for me this game, but I have to think positively and I have no fear of being gammoned. If I enter on their 2 point, They are likely to make the 8 point and block me in. So I’ll enter on the 4 point and hope to not be pointed on. If I do hit a shot, I’ll want my 4 point so I’ll try 6/4 rather than breaking my 8 point.



USBGF Members: 42 8/4* 6/4
Neil Kazaross: 53 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--BBBCB----dBB--b-bcab---:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 136
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BDBB-A-eBa--bBdc-----:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout118/16 18/14* eq: +0.305
Player:
Opponent:
65.91% (G:10.99% B:0.81%)
34.09% (G:7.57% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.301...+0.308) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout118/14* 10/8eq: +0.209 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
61.29% (G:13.17% B:1.15%)
38.71% (G:9.25% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.206...+0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 18/16 18/14*
[ 8] 18/14* 10/8
[ 3] 8/4 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 18/16 18/14*

We have to hit 18/14*, this puts us ahead in the race. Then we should play 18/16 so Neil does not have good 6’s from the bar.

What about the Julius High paradox I just mentioned? Well you only want to leave the checker on the 18 point (when your opponent has 5 or more checkers on their mid-point) when you have a chance of making the 18 point i.e. you have checkers further back than the 18 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 130
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a----BDBB-A-eBA-Ab-dc-----:0:0:-1:53:10:0:1:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.436
Player:
Opponent:
27.94% (G:2.63% B:0.10%)
72.06% (G:8.28% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.439...-0.433) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 8/3eq: -0.456 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
26.97% (G:2.60% B:0.08%)
73.03% (G:8.67% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.459...-0.453) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 13/8.

13/8 should be better than breaking the 8 point to slot.



USBGF Members: 52 16/14 10/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 123
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CDBB---dBB--c-dc-----:0:0:-1:53:10:0:1:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.463
Player:
Opponent:
26.61% (G:2.54% B:0.09%)
73.39% (G:7.46% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.466...-0.460) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.486 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
25.45% (G:2.51% B:0.11%)
74.55% (G:8.88% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.489...-0.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 01 second
3.Rollout113/10 8/3eq: -0.488 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
25.35% (G:2.70% B:0.09%)
74.65% (G:9.21% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.491...-0.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout113/8 6/3eq: -0.490 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
25.28% (G:2.61% B:0.09%)
74.72% (G:8.98% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.493...-0.487) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 27 seconds
5.Rollout113/5eq: -0.490 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
25.26% (G:2.63% B:0.10%)
74.74% (G:8.59% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.493...-0.487) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 08 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/3.

Now I just make my 3 point, adding a new point to my forward structure and hoping to hit a fly shot soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 123
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CDBB---dBB--b-cc-b---:0:0:1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C---eD-a-bBcc-A---:0:0:1:66:10:0:1:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout122/10 13/7(2)eq: +0.103
Player:
Opponent:
55.78% (G:9.66% B:0.50%)
44.22% (G:6.91% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.100...+0.106) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout113/7(4)eq: -0.017 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
49.99% (G:10.78% B:1.04%)
50.01% (G:9.74% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.021...-0.013) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
3.Rollout113/1*(2) eq: -0.022 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
49.93% (G:14.98% B:0.28%)
50.07% (G:11.01% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.025...-0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 22/10 13/7(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/10 13/7(2)

We have just rolled a fantastic number so let’s use it well.

If you want to play 13/1*(2) – think again. Even for money this is wrong.

13/7(4) looks flexible and we are still slightly behind in the race. Unfortunately, our rearmost checker is in the attack zone and Neil will attack if we give him the chance – so we deny him the chance with 22/10 13/7(2). This gives us numbers to extend our prime and to attack if Neil advances his rearmost checker. If Neil hits us with 54 or 63 we will have return shots.

Overall 21/10 13/7(2) is my 2 second play but looking more closely I do not like any of the alternatives, so I will go with that.

One of my things I learned at San Antonio was that in the longer matches I finished them hardly having used any of my time bank. So from now on, I will be using Kent Goulding’s advice and asking myself ‘what is the second best play?’. That way I will force myself to consider moves other than the obvious. I should put a disclaimer here, in San Antonio I watched a match in one of the main events where the player had the game and therefore the match won. His opponent had a 23 point anchor and a collapsed home board. The player started considering a lot of combinations of where to put his outfield checkers. Sounds good but he only had 14 seconds of his time bank left. In this situation just go with the obvious play. The player unfortunately was still considering his options when he timed out.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 140
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EBC-A-eB-a-bBcc-----:0:0:-1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout124/22 10/6eq: -0.172
Player:
Opponent:
40.85% (G:5.89% B:0.26%)
59.15% (G:9.69% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.175...-0.169) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 13/9eq: -0.188 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
39.96% (G:7.20% B:0.30%)
60.04% (G:13.25% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.191...-0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
3.Rollout113/9 10/8eq: -0.193 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
39.75% (G:6.62% B:0.28%)
60.25% (G:10.84% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.196...-0.189) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
4.Rollout124/20 10/8eq: -0.193 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
39.91% (G:4.51% B:0.22%)
60.09% (G:10.44% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.196...-0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
5.Rollout110/4eq: -0.195 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
39.68% (G:6.34% B:0.25%)
60.32% (G:10.59% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.198...-0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 43 seconds
6.Rollout124/20 6/4eq: -0.196 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
39.76% (G:4.92% B:0.22%)
60.24% (G:13.21% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.199...-0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 10/6.

Their very nice 66 makes me a clear underdog now. I believe I should move my runner up so that it directly sees daylight and can escape or hit a fly shot with some rolls. 24/20 seems to be too risky with 4 builders aimed at their best point. 24/22 looks right and that means 10/6 lifting a blot.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 65 22/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 136
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BDBB-A-eBa--bBdc-----:0:0:1:42:10:0:1:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 169
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---bAdb-AA--:0:0:1:32:10:0:1:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout113/11* 11/8eq: -0.176
Player:
Opponent:
43.05% (G:11.42% B:1.28%)
56.95% (G:19.55% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.177...-0.174) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 41 minutes
2.playedRollout123/18eq: -0.183 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
42.21% (G:7.72% B:0.52%)
57.79% (G:15.22% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.185...-0.181) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 51 minutes
3.Rollout218/15 13/11* eq: -0.214 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
41.47% (G:11.11% B:1.46%)
58.53% (G:21.89% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.218...-0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
4.Rollout213/10 13/11* eq: -0.215 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
41.91% (G:12.38% B:1.37%)
58.09% (G:24.21% B:1.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.220...-0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 23/18 (coin flip!)
[16] 18/15 13/11*
[10] 13/11* 13/10
[ 6] 13/11*/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

I definitely like the hit 13/11*. Over the board I would not play 13/10 as it strips the midpoint and leaves a lot more return shots.

Over the board especially if I was playing Speed Gammon (which I really like) I would play 18/15 as I hate giving my opponent’s good 6’s from the bar. You cannot enter with a 6 so make it an awkward bad number for your opponent.

But after the roll we be exactly even in the race. Also years ago Julius High did some free study groups online. One of those lessons involved when to anchor on your 18 point. Essentially when your opponent has 5 or more checkers on his/her mid-point you want an anchor on your 18 point – by moving out to the 18 point with 1 checker or staying there with 1 checker. This seem counter intuitive as your opponent has more ammunition there but you have more incentive to make the 18 point. When I give lessons I call this the Julius High paradox.

So having the benefit of looking at this with more time than over the board I can see just tidying up with 11/8 has real strength. If we make the 18 point, Neil cannot prime us and it is a lot harder to blitz us.

P.S. Julius High’s study group was great. In New Zealand they started at 5 a.m. Saturday morning so I had to get up at 4:30 a.m. to be part of it, and it was worth it. I want to publicly say thank you Julius, I benefited so much from those 10 sessions.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---bBdb-A---:0:0:-1:41:10:0:1:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout114/10 6/5eq: +0.120
Player:
Opponent:
54.72% (G:14.64% B:0.52%)
45.28% (G:9.55% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.117...+0.124) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 14/13eq: +0.101 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
54.00% (G:11.43% B:0.49%)
46.00% (G:7.97% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.098...+0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 14/10eq: +0.098 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
53.64% (G:14.09% B:0.50%)
46.36% (G:9.72% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.094...+0.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
4.Rollout113/8eq: +0.085 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
53.12% (G:12.68% B:0.49%)
46.88% (G:9.33% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.082...+0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
5.Rollout124/20 6/5eq: +0.075 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
52.65% (G:11.77% B:0.53%)
47.35% (G:9.69% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.071...+0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/10 6/5.

24/20 14/13 looks like a natural play trying to escape the last checker. But it is not flexible and is too stacked. I will also be attacked on the 20 point if they can hit. I’ll go with the more complicated and flexible 14/10 6/5 which I doubt can be far wrong if it is at all. Most of their hits now come at some cost.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C---eD-a-bBcc-A---:0:0:1:66:10:0:1:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 178
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---c-e---AAA:0:0:1:63:10:0:1:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 24/18eq: -0.181
Player:
Opponent:
42.75% (G:10.34% B:1.00%)
57.25% (G:18.89% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.186...-0.177) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.195 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
42.31% (G:11.54% B:1.17%)
57.69% (G:20.50% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.199...-0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/16eq: -0.195 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
42.08% (G:10.74% B:0.88%)
57.92% (G:19.26% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.199...-0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] b/22 24/18
[ 6] b/22 13/7
[ 3] b/16


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 24/18

This is tough. I give a lesson on early game entering with a 6. Some positions obey a clear set of rules but some are really close and some are just tough. This is a tough one. By moving the checker on the 23 point to the 21 point then I would play Bar/16 due to the duplication of 4’s.

In this position, I would play Bar/22 24/18 as we come out to a double rather than triple shot (with Bar/16) and we do not reduce our 13 point to 3 (with Bar/22 13/7).

Bar/22 24/18 means that if Neil double hits, he has to hit deep in our board and he would rather double hit higher, as his 5 or 4 points are more valuable to him than his 3 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 169
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---cAe--AA--:0:0:-1:31:10:0:1:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.156
Player:
Opponent:
56.30% (G:16.20% B:0.65%)
43.70% (G:10.63% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.152...+0.159) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
2.Rollout18/7* 6/3* eq: +0.143 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
55.31% (G:18.68% B:0.96%)
44.69% (G:13.58% B:2.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.138...+0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
3.Rollout16/3* 3/2* eq: +0.123 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
54.40% (G:18.48% B:0.82%)
45.60% (G:13.26% B:1.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.118...+0.127) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 6/5.

This score is basically a DMP situation as my gammon value is small since all a gammon win does in to take away their free drop. A backgammon win would be nice but that is very unlikely. I’m virtually certain that the best DMP play is to just make my 5 point and try to then consolidate. This seems better to me with a racing lead and even if I get hit on my 14 point I should still have a slight advantage due to my 5 point. I prefer the simple plan vs adding new blots to my forward position to attack when I don’t need a gammon and when I have only a 1 point board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 169
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---bAdb-AA--:0:0:1:32:10:0:1:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 167
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:10:0:1:11:10
to play 21

1.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.017
Player:
Opponent:
50.66% (G:15.47% B:2.16%)
49.34% (G:15.72% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.021...-0.012) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.playedRollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.029 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
49.86% (G:15.12% B:1.63%)
50.14% (G:14.33% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.033...-0.025) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 24/23 13/11
[19] 13/11 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 6/5

I always just play 13/11 6/5. Here it must be a coin flip so I would do whatever my doubles partner wanted. At 2 away 4 away I also think it is a coin flip but in all cases I would just make my standard play as I am familiar with the way the game goes.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AeD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:64:10:0:1:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/14* eq: +0.111
Player:
Opponent:
53.92% (G:16.70% B:0.81%)
46.08% (G:13.81% B:1.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.106...+0.115) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
2.Rollout18/2* 6/2eq: +0.041 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
50.43% (G:18.07% B:0.70%)
49.57% (G:13.58% B:1.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.037...+0.045) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/14*.

24/14*, gains in the race, tries to escape with a checker, and sends a 3rd checker back — this is considerably stronger at any score.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 178
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--aeD---c-e---AAA:0:0:1:63:10:0:1:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 49
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 36
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCEa-------------a--cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 99.10% (G:0.09% B:0.00%) 99.10% (G:0.47% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 0.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 0.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.982 +1.498
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.995 (-0.005)±0.000 (+0.995..+0.995)
     Redouble/Take:+1.461 (+0.461)±0.000 (+1.461..+1.461)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 59.9 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] Redouble
[ 9] No Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Redouble

Now our gammon chances are so small, and we want to guard against Neil rolling an amazing sequence of doubles, so let’s redouble here. I expect Neil to pass.


Neil Kazaross passes.

Let’s assess this nearly hopeless race. They have 13 checkers and basically a speed board that can afford one miss. So sans doubles, they are off in 7 rolls. I need 18 crossovers to come home and bearoff. So that is 9 rolls assuming optimistically that I don’t miss. This means that I am MILES behind and will need them to roll poorly enough to generate two misses while at least half my rolls are useful doubles.

I doubt I can win this more than a percent or two so I have a huge pass as clearly my chances are better from 11-away/Crawford..


USBGF Members win two points, and now lead Crawford/11-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 167
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:10:0:1:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 43
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBEB-----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 98.57% (G:4.28% B:0.09%) 98.59% (G:3.74% B:0.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 1.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 1.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.994 +1.478
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+1.009±0.000 (+1.009..+1.010)
     Redouble/Take:+1.419 (+0.410)±0.000 (+1.419..+1.420)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.009)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.3%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 57.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] No Redouble
[14] Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Redouble

Every roll is a new cube decision. Here the decision is the same, we cannot roll any roll that leaves a shot this time so we roll and see if we can win a gammon – but we will ask ourselves whether we should double next roll.

Let’s not redouble as we are too good.



USBGF Members: 52 5/3 5/0
Neil Kazaross: 52 b/20 8/6


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 49
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 36
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCEa-------------a--cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBDBB----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/4 6/1eq: +0.990
Player:
Opponent:
96.87% (G:3.00% B:0.06%)
3.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.990...+0.990) - [98.9%]
Duration: 33.9 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 5/Offeq: +0.990 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
96.41% (G:4.12% B:0.08%)
3.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.990...+0.990) - [1.1%]
Duration: 1.3 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 6/4 6/1
[19] 5/3 5/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/4 6/1

Let’s just clear the 6 point here with 6/4 6/1. I do not see any reason to get to a position where we could leave a shot next roll.



Neil Kazaross: 21 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 43
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBEB-----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBDBB----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 98.26% (G:5.27% B:0.11%) 98.32% (G:4.24% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 1.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 1.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.993 +1.468
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+1.013±0.000 (+1.012..+1.013)
     Redouble/Take:+1.398 (+0.385)±0.000 (+1.398..+1.399)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.013)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.2%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] No Redouble
[18] Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Redouble

If we roll say 65 and Neil responses with 66 we are still 82% favorite. If we keep the cube we must be able to gammon him a small percentage of the time.

The fact that nothing leaves a shot means we should just play on. If we move one of our checkers on the 4 point back to our 6 point then we should redouble and Neil should pass but if we move it to our 5 point we are still too good to redouble.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBDBB----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBCCC----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/4 5/Offeq: +1.013
Player:
Opponent:
98.26% (G:5.29% B:0.10%)
1.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.013...+1.013) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout16/1 5/3eq: +1.000 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
97.35% (G:4.21% B:0.04%)
2.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.000...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second
3.Rollout16/1 4/2eq: +1.000 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
96.42% (G:4.40% B:0.04%)
3.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.000...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.4 second
4.Rollout15/Off 4/2eq: +1.000 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
95.20% (G:6.00% B:0.07%)
4.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.000...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] 6/4 5/0
[ 2] 6/1 5/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/4 5/0

Let’s play 6/4 5/0 which takes a checker off and guards against doubles like 66, 55 and 44. We are even ended after this move.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBDBB----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 68
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBBCB---AA-----a----cdf-:1:1:1:42:8:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout111/9 10/6eq: +1.010
Player:
Opponent:
98.01% (G:5.56% B:0.10%)
1.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.010...+1.010) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout110/4eq: +1.008 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
97.84% (G:5.28% B:0.10%)
2.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.007...+1.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout111/5eq: +1.007 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
97.76% (G:5.38% B:0.09%)
2.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.007...+1.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout110/6 5/3eq: +1.005 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
97.39% (G:5.24% B:0.09%)
2.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.005...+1.006) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds
5.Rollout111/7 10/8eq: +1.004 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
97.57% (G:5.01% B:0.08%)
2.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.004...+1.005) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds
6.Rollout110/8 5/1eq: +1.003 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
97.30% (G:4.70% B:0.06%)
2.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.003...+1.003) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds
7.Rollout111/7 5/3eq: +1.000 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
97.17% (G:5.14% B:0.06%)
2.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.000...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.5 seconds
8.Rollout111/9 5/1eq: +1.000 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
97.11% (G:4.80% B:0.08%)
2.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.000...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6.5 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19402738
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 11/9 10/6
[15] 10/4
[ 6] 11/5
[ 4] 11/7 10/8
[ 1] 11/7 5/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/5

There are so many acceptable plays here – 10/6 5/3, 11/5, 10/4 or 10/6 11/9. I would not argue with any of them in a chouette but here over the board I would probably just play 11/5. The important question is can our move handle 66 or 55 next roll. If yes then any of the above is fine.



USBGF Members: 32 9/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBCCC----------a----cdf-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 73
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBBBB-A-A--A---a----cdf-:1:1:1:32:8:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/11 8/5eq: +1.008
Player:
Opponent:
97.82% (G:5.52% B:0.10%)
2.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.008...+1.008) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout110/7 8/6eq: +1.006 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
97.69% (G:5.17% B:0.09%)
2.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.006...+1.007) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36651371
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 13/11 8/5
[ 6] 10/7 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 8/5

In these types positions (bearing in against an opponent’s checkers on the bar), I remember something that Kit Woolsey wrote that it is better to put your spares on the 5 point rather than the 6 point. The reason is that you will want to clear the 6 point soon anyway and it is more likely high doubles will not hurt you.

Next we want to diversify our outfield checkers so that we have more choice where to put them.

So, here we should consider 13/11 8/5 and see how it handles 66 and 55. 66 is great and 55 ok so let’s go with 13/11 8/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 68
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBBCB---AA-----a----cdf-:1:1:1:42:8:0:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BCBCB-A-A--A---a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 93.09% (G:4.50% B:0.11%) 93.26% (G:3.21% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 6.91% (G:0.07% B:0.00%) 6.74% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.885 +1.273
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.964 (-0.026)±0.001 (+0.963..+0.964)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.990±0.002 (+0.988..+0.991)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.010)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36651371
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] No Double
[13] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Redouble

If we play on do we win many Gammons? No.

Is this a take? It might be at 11 away 3 away. So if one is not immediately sure, we should Redouble – this is Woolsey’s law in action.



USBGF Members: 42 5/1 3/1


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 73
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBBBBBB-A-A--A---a----cdf-:1:1:1:32:8:0:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 43
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBBB-B-A--a---a-A--cdf-:1:1:1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.xgRollout119/13* 10/7eq: +0.942
Player:
Opponent:
90.78% (G:4.18% B:0.10%)
9.22% (G:0.43% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.940...+0.944) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 55 seconds
2.playedRollout119/13* 8/5eq: +0.924 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
91.31% (G:4.32% B:0.11%)
8.69% (G:0.24% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.924...+0.925) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 24 seconds
3.Rollout119/13* 13/10eq: +0.871 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
88.64% (G:4.34% B:0.12%)
11.36% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.871...+0.872) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36651371
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 19/13* 8/5
[21] 19/13* 10/7
[ 1] 19/10



Neil Kazaross: 62 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 56
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-BCBCB-A-A--A---a----cdf-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-CC-C-B--b-----Aa-dce-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout18/3 6/4eq: -0.293
Player:
Opponent:
34.72% (G:4.30% B:0.13%)
65.28% (G:2.65% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.295...-0.291) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout110/5 6/4eq: -0.310 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
33.94% (G:3.53% B:0.11%)
66.06% (G:2.55% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.312...-0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout18/1eq: -0.326 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
33.35% (G:4.53% B:0.06%)
66.65% (G:2.87% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.329...-0.323) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 34 seconds
4.Rollout18/6 8/3eq: -0.335 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
32.53% (G:2.83% B:0.09%)
67.47% (G:1.97% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.337...-0.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 45 seconds
5.Rollout110/5 8/6eq: -0.341 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
32.09% (G:3.09% B:0.10%)
67.91% (G:1.73% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.343...-0.338) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 27 seconds
6.Rollout110/3eq: -0.352 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
31.68% (G:2.75% B:0.10%)
68.32% (G:1.92% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.354...-0.350) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9783186
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 8/3 6/4
[ 7] 10/5 6/4
[ 6] 10/3
[ 2] 8/1
[ 1] 8/6 8/3
[ 1] 10/5 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/4

The same as last move — we need the 4 point so 6/4. Then let’s maximize builders/covers for the 2 point with 8/3.



Neil Kazaross: 32 5/2 3/1
USBGF Members: 63 10/4 5/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 47
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBBB-B-A--b-----A--cdf-:1:1:-1:31:8:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout112/8eq: -0.466
Player:
Opponent:
31.58% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)
68.42% (G:11.17% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.467...-0.464) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout112/11 12/9eq: -0.496 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
29.89% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
70.11% (G:9.42% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.497...-0.494) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout112/9 2/1eq: -0.639 (-0.173)
Player:
Opponent:
23.52% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
76.48% (G:11.29% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.641...-0.637) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout112/9 3/2eq: -0.644 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:
23.26% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
76.74% (G:11.36% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.647...-0.642) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36651371
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/8.

I have to leave a double shot and fortunately have these memorized so I know 12/8 is 24 shots whereas 12/9 12/11 is 25 shots, but let’s count anyhow. 20 rolls can hit a double shot directly so we want to them see what un-duplicated combos hit.

After 12/8. 11 hits, 51 hits and 33 hits. 22 and 42 are duplicated. So 24 shots.

After 12/11 12/9, 11 hits, 21 hits, 41 hits. 23 is duplicated. So 25 shots.

So I play 12/8 and pray for the 1/3 of the time I am not hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 43
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBBB-B-A--a---a-A--cdf-:1:1:1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 57
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-CC-BaC-a-------a-dceA:1:1:1:62:8:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout1Bar/19 6/4eq: -0.236
Player:
Opponent:
36.96% (G:4.83% B:0.26%)
63.04% (G:2.13% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.238...-0.233) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 12 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/19 10/8eq: -0.262 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
35.56% (G:4.56% B:0.23%)
64.44% (G:1.87% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.265...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/19 5/3eq: -0.279 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
35.00% (G:4.48% B:0.19%)
65.00% (G:2.21% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.282...-0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/19 8/6eq: -0.290 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
34.62% (G:4.64% B:0.21%)
65.38% (G:2.42% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.293...-0.287) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9783186
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] b/19 10/8
[16] b/19 6/4
[ 1] b/19 8/6
[ 1] b/19 5/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/19 6/4

We are not going to win the race — we could roll 66 twice and still not win the race so we should plan to get a shot and hit a shot but then the third part of the equation is to contain the checker that we have hit. To contain the checker, we need to make our board in order from the 6 downwards. Therefore we need our 4 point and the quickest and surest way to make it is to slot it.



Neil Kazaross: 41 16/12 13/12


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-CC-C-B--b-----Aa-dce-:1:1:1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 63
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--Aa-CD-BBC-a-------a-dce-:1:1:1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout19/3* 6/3eq: +0.542
Player:
Opponent:
73.68% (G:11.48% B:0.56%)
26.32% (G:3.11% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.539...+0.546) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/3* eq: +0.466 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
71.37% (G:11.87% B:0.61%)
28.63% (G:5.26% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.462...+0.469) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] 9/3* 6/3
[ 2] 10/1
[ 1] 8/2 6/3*
[ 1] 10/4 5/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/3* 6/3

We are behind in the race by 42 pips before the roll. Our game plan cannot be racing. We need to attack and make an inner board point with 9/3* 6/3. After that we will have a 4th point slotted and 3 builders aimed at it. Neil also has an inner board blot that will still be there after Neil hits with 21, 52 and 62. Even if after we are hit, and we come in without hitting, Neil will have to get 2 checkers past us.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-AB-CC-BAC-a-------a-dce-:1:1:-1:54:8:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/16* eq: -0.228
Player:
Opponent:
42.88% (G:2.88% B:0.01%)
57.12% (G:18.15% B:1.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.231...-0.224) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: -0.669 (-0.441)
Player:
Opponent:
20.35% (G:2.48% B:0.01%)
79.65% (G:8.25% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.672...-0.666) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16*.

I am delighted to be able to hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 57
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-CC-BaC-a-------a-dceA:1:1:1:62:8:0:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-CBC---------a-dce-:1:1:1:43:8:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout110/7 6/2eq: +0.645
Player:
Opponent:
77.88% (G:15.56% B:0.65%)
22.12% (G:2.52% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.641...+0.649) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout110/7 8/4eq: +0.617 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
76.86% (G:17.28% B:0.93%)
23.14% (G:3.74% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.612...+0.621) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 14 seconds
3.playedRollout18/5 6/2eq: +0.606 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
75.62% (G:14.64% B:0.66%)
24.38% (G:1.65% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.603...+0.609) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout110/6 8/5eq: +0.529 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
72.28% (G:13.91% B:0.66%)
27.72% (G:2.05% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.525...+0.532) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 8/5 6/2
[14] 10/6 8/5
[ 3] 10/7 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 10/7 6/2

If we win a Gammon we win the match. The go for gold is the double slot of 10/7 8/4 – that is too risky for me.

We want to force Neil off his 22 point anchor. If we slot 10/7 6/2 we will have a spare on the 8 point to cover the 7 point if needed (if missed) or to use to attack if Neil hits us with 43, 42, 41 or 31. The spare on our 8 point let’s us attack Neil’s rear checker if Neil hits with 54 or 64.

We could just play quiet with 8/5 6/2 and I would not argue against that in a chouette but here we want to complicate with 10/7 6/2.



Neil Kazaross: 54 22/13


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 63
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=--Aa-CD-BBC-a-------a-dce-:1:1:1:63:8:0:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-BBB--A--A---b-ebd-:1:1:1:65:8:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout116/10 13/8eq: +0.523
Player:
Opponent:
72.37% (G:11.72% B:0.50%)
27.63% (G:2.01% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.522...+0.525) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout113/2eq: +0.518 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
72.28% (G:14.24% B:0.59%)
27.72% (G:2.89% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.517...+0.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 30 minutes
3.Rollout116/5eq: +0.517 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
72.20% (G:13.06% B:0.55%)
27.80% (G:2.54% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.515...+0.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 01 minute
4.Rollout216/10 6/1eq: +0.496 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
71.45% (G:12.99% B:0.53%)
28.55% (G:2.75% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.493...+0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 47 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32]
[ 4] 13/2
[ 4] 16/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/10 13/8

16/5 looks tempting but why leave 2 rolls that let Neil escape and puts us on the bar. It is still a good roll for Neil after we play 16/10 13/8 but now we would not be on the bar and can attack his remaining checker.

If we are to leave extra shots, we need to see a clear benefit. Here I see only the downside so let’s skip 16/5 and play 16/10 13/8.”


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-CBC---------b-ebd-:1:1:-1:32:8:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout15/3 5/2eq: -0.635
Player:
Opponent:
22.77% (G:1.58% B:0.01%)
77.23% (G:13.91% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.639...-0.632) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 15 seconds
2.playedRollout15/2 3/1eq: -0.656 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
21.93% (G:1.56% B:0.01%)
78.07% (G:14.12% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.659...-0.652) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58443348
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/2 3/1.

I think I should save a 4 so I can hang onto my anchor with 41 and 42 next turn so as not to have two checkers exposed to a 15 checker attack.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-CBC---------a-dce-:1:1:1:43:8:0:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-01-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--F-CB---B-AA---b-ecc-:1:1:1:53:8:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout115/10 13/10eq: +0.298
Player:
Opponent:
64.28% (G:12.18% B:0.49%)
35.72% (G:6.95% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.293...+0.304) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout116/11 15/12eq: +0.184 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
60.36% (G:10.82% B:0.49%)
39.64% (G:9.19% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.179...+0.189) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout116/8eq: +0.181 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
59.63% (G:10.53% B:0.46%)
40.37% (G:8.23% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.176...+0.185) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 55 seconds
4.Rollout115/12 6/1eq: +0.144 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
58.78% (G:11.96% B:0.42%)
41.22% (G:9.79% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.139...+0.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout116/13 15/10eq: +0.142 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:
57.75% (G:9.82% B:0.44%)
42.25% (G:7.97% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.137...+0.146) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 47 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[42] 15/10 13/10
[ 3] 16/8
[ 2] 15/12 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--F-CBB--A--A---b-ecc-:1:1:-1:52:8:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout122/20eq: -0.379
Player:
Opponent:
32.07% (G:6.90% B:0.05%)
67.93% (G:13.49% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.383...-0.374) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout13/1eq: -0.414 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
31.44% (G:4.78% B:0.02%)
68.56% (G:12.69% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.419...-0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/20.

I must split and try to escape and provoke contact while I still have a 4 point board.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5* 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--a-BE-BBB--A--A---b-ecc-:1:1:-1:31:8:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 2/1eq: -0.592
Player:
Opponent:
24.46% (G:2.46% B:0.01%)
75.54% (G:13.97% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.593...-0.590) - [89.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 28 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/22 3/2eq: -0.593 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
24.37% (G:2.52% B:0.01%)
75.63% (G:14.21% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.595...-0.592) - [10.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/22 5/4eq: -0.664 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
21.46% (G:2.37% B:0.01%)
78.54% (G:16.59% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.668...-0.660) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 24 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/21eq: -0.668 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
20.81% (G:3.81% B:0.04%)
79.19% (G:18.52% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.672...-0.664) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71119588
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 2/1.

Splitting looks a bit too scary with their array of builders aimed at me along with some crushing jokers. I think I have to content my self with the 3 anchor now and hope to roll 44 or hit a fly shot or win somehow as they come home to their bearoff.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-BE-BBB--A--A---b-ebd-:1:1:1:65:8:0:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10