is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 84

11 point match

pip: 87 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-CBBBC-a-----Ba---bbbbbbaA:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	Bar/24* 5/1	eq: -1.127
	Player: Opponent: 5.24% (G:0.23% B:0.00%) 94.76% (G:15.79% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.128...-1.126) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/24* 13/9	eq: -1.131 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 5.25% (G:0.23% B:0.01%) 94.75% (G:16.10% B:0.78%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.132...-1.130) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 18 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24943622 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/24* 13/9
[11] b/24* 5/1


is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 108

11 point match

pip: 82 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=aCBBBC-a-A---Aa---bbbbbbA-:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10

to play 65

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/19 18/13	eq: +1.066
	Player: Opponent: 95.32% (G:10.04% B:0.26%) 4.68% (G:0.19% B:0.01%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/19 11/6	eq: +1.063 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 95.34% (G:9.64% B:0.27%) 4.66% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/14	eq: +1.049 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 95.37% (G:8.28% B:0.22%) 4.63% (G:0.21% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/19 18/13.

I think the plan is to try to catch another checker. I think that this means that I want to avoid being hit and also to try to maximize the number of rolls my opponents can roll that leave a direct shot. 18/13 appears to do just that as they have some bad 5’s and 6’s. The alternative plan is to place more pressure on the trapped blot on my ace point with 11/6 but then I usually get hit and will need a joker from the bar to hit back.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 97

11 point match

pip: 82 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-CBBBCa--A--aAa---bbbbbbA-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:11:10

to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 113

11 point match

pip: 98 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-ABABBCb----bBB--a-bcbba--:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	6/3 6/1	eq: +0.110
	Player: Opponent: 54.14% (G:3.87% B:0.12%) 45.86% (G:6.55% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.103...+0.117) - [100.0%] Duration: 45 minutes 03 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/1 5/2	eq: +0.029 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 51.85% (G:3.38% B:0.07%) 48.15% (G:8.91% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.020...+0.037) - [0.0%] Duration: 42 minutes 36 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/1 4/1	eq: -0.017 (-0.127)
	Player: Opponent: 50.91% (G:3.10% B:0.06%) 49.09% (G:9.28% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.026...-0.008) - [0.0%] Duration: 42 minutes 21 seconds
4.	Rollout1	14/6	eq: -0.069 (-0.179)
	Player: Opponent: 47.61% (G:8.26% B:0.35%) 52.39% (G:8.96% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.075...-0.064) - [0.0%] Duration: 47 minutes 02 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72304706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 6/3 6/1
[ 3] 14/6


Neil’s board is too strong to allow us to do any form of paying now. Therefore we should rearrange our checkers with in our inner board and strengthen it at the same time with 6/3 6/1. Maybe when we pay, Neil with have given up his mid-point meaning we could leave fewer shots.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 116

11 point match

pip: 98 score: 2 is Player 1

XGID=-ABABBCb—-bBB–a-ccbaa–:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10

to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

In order to make paying now correct, we would have to leave a second blot in Neil’s board

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 113

11 point match

pip: 90 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBBBBAb----bBB--a-bcbba--:0:0:-1:33:2:0:0:11:10

to play 33

1.	Rollout1	13/10 13/7 5/2	eq: -0.132
	Player: Opponent: 46.17% (G:5.77% B:0.10%) 53.83% (G:1.41% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.138...-0.126) - [100.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 8/2	eq: -0.154 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 44.83% (G:5.20% B:0.09%) 55.17% (G:1.38% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.160...-0.147) - [0.0%] Duration: 35 minutes 31 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24943622 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 13/7 5/2.

This is an easy play since I can’t hold everything and still trail substantially in the race, so I must retain the 18 point. Therefore, 13/10(2) 5/2 then 10/7 preparing to make a prime which can allow me to play for the gammon if I hit a quick shot and will prevent any jokers from the bar.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 94

11 point match

pip: 92 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBBBCAa-----Baa-aabbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	94.08% (G:18.68% B:0.38%)	94.68% (G:18.64% B:0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	5.92% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)	5.32% (G:0.61% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities	+1.069	+2.194
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+1.105	±0.003 (+1.102..+1.108)
Double/Take:	+2.161 (+1.056)	±0.006 (+2.155..+2.166)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (-0.105)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 9.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24943622 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I am clearly too good here as most rolls make a full prime and the only thing I really don’t want to roll is boxes. If some rare accident happens to me, my opponents have a crashed 5 point board, so I may survive with a 6 from the bar.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 94

11 point match

pip: 92 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-BBBBCAa-----Baa-aabbbbb-A:0:0:-1:41:2:0:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	10/6 8/7	eq: +1.151
	Player: Opponent: 95.66% (G:20.24% B:0.46%) 4.34% (G:0.08% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.148...+1.154) - [100.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/7 8/7	eq: +1.140 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 95.35% (G:19.63% B:0.47%) 4.65% (G:0.09% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.136...+1.143) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 23 seconds
3.	Rollout1	11/7 10/9	eq: +1.134 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 95.23% (G:18.89% B:0.49%) 4.77% (G:0.10% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.131...+1.137) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 20 seconds
4.	Rollout1	18/17 11/7	eq: +1.131 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 94.78% (G:19.49% B:0.42%) 5.22% (G:0.15% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.128...+1.134) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 11 seconds
5.	Rollout1	18/14 8/7	eq: +1.127 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 95.35% (G:18.12% B:0.37%) 4.65% (G:0.09% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.124...+1.130) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 27 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24943622 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 8/7.

I’ll make my prime and put a builder in an optimal spot. I will be happy to close my board here as then I can win a gammon about a quarter of the time

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 89

11 point match

pip: 86 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-CBBBC-a-----Ba---bcbbbbA-:0:0:-1:32:2:0:0:11:10

to play 32

1.	Rollout1	6/1*	eq: +1.156
	Player: Opponent: 96.19% (G:19.58% B:0.29%) 3.81% (G:0.08% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.154...+1.159) - [100.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 55 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/16 11/8	eq: +1.120 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 94.60% (G:15.81% B:0.45%) 5.40% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.118...+1.122) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 29 seconds
3.	Rollout1	11/6	eq: +1.113 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 94.62% (G:14.93% B:0.41%) 5.38% (G:0.10% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.111...+1.115) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 53 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24943622 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1*.

I’ll hit with 6/1*, going straight for the close out with about 25% gammon chances if I achieve it. This looks better to me than following an often difficult road to catching a 2nd checker since my opponents have a 5 point board and can often get their checkers on the mid point to safety.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 84

11 point match

pip: 87 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-CBBBC-a-----Ba---bbbbbbaA:0:0:1:14:2:0:0:11:10

to play 14

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 118

11 point match

pip: 107 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bBB--aabcbb---:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10

to play 54

1.	Rollout1	8/4 8/3	eq: +0.162
	Player: Opponent: 55.77% (G:4.32% B:0.16%) 44.23% (G:6.18% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.155...+0.169) - [100.0%] Duration: 58 minutes 23 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/1 5/1	eq: +0.137 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 55.44% (G:2.90% B:0.07%) 44.56% (G:8.50% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.129...+0.144) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
3.	Rollout1	6/2 6/1	eq: +0.137 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 55.31% (G:2.82% B:0.07%) 44.69% (G:8.08% B:0.22%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.129...+0.145) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
4.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.115 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 54.68% (G:2.95% B:0.11%) 45.32% (G:8.37% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.107...+0.123) - [0.0%] Duration: 58 minutes 41 seconds
5.	Rollout1	8/4 6/1	eq: -0.032 (-0.194)
	Player: Opponent: 50.25% (G:8.55% B:0.37%) 49.75% (G:11.71% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.039...-0.026) - [0.0%] Duration: 46 minutes 50 seconds
6.	Rollout1	14/5	eq: -0.103 (-0.265)
	Player: Opponent: 47.47% (G:3.20% B:0.10%) 52.53% (G:9.91% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.109...-0.097) - [0.0%] Duration: 59 minutes 46 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72473954 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/4 8/3
[ 4] 6/1 5/1
[ 4] 13/9 13/8
[ 3] 6/2 6/1
[ 3] 14/5
[ 1] 8/4 6/1
[ 1] 14/10 14/9


When I looked at this my gut instinct was 8/4 8/3. It sure looks ugly but does not leave a shot. I was unsure but went with that. I then checked and it was correct. What I had not fully appreciated was if I play safe and wait – Neil does not have that much timing here. He will have to damage his position by either giving up his mid-point or moving deeper into his board.

To test this I moved Neil’s spare checker on his 5 point backwards and when it gets to his 9 point, he has enough timing that 13/9 13/8 becomes our correct play.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 107 score: 2 is Player 1

XGID=-AB-ABCbB—bBB-aaabbbb—:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10

to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Steve Sax recommends: 8/4 8/3

This is a particularly difficult “pay me now, pay me later” position.

The reason is that most times, when you “pay now”, the reward is an immediate win.

Here, even if you are missed when you break the mid-point (13-9, 13-8) you still have to clear an outfield point and only be up approximately 11 or 12 pips which is far from a winning position.

And when you are hit, you have two blots in your board so Black can play extra aggressively in an effort to prime White in or even close them out.

If you break the eight-point however, your next six barring double sixes will leave a direct shot. At least in that situation you will have a four-point board and possible make a fifth point is you roll 6-5.

At that point, Black will attempt to make a fifth point in his board with his three builders. And while he is unlikely to make the new point he can at least slot it in an attempt to cover the following roll.

And even then, White will only leave a shot 10/36 times.

If he leaves a shot with (6-2, 6-3, 6-4 or 6-4) Black will hit with 15 numbers and if White leaves a shot with (6-1) Black will hit with 11 numbers.

That averages out to about one third of the time so the immediate possibility for White to leave a shot and then be hit is about 9%. That’s quite a bit less often than the 30.55% of the time White is hit if he volunteers.

So since an immediate hit is nearly as bad as a later hit you’re better off hoping to get lucky later.

If the nature of the position were such that Black was unprepared to contain a White checker if it were hit, that’s the time you want to take your chances and leave the shot.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 118

11 point match

pip: 98 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-ABABBCb----bBB--aabcbb---:0:0:-1:41:2:0:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	7/2	eq: -0.179
	Player: Opponent: 43.71% (G:6.42% B:0.21%) 56.29% (G:5.18% B:0.22%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.185...-0.173) - [96.8%] Duration: 50 minutes 03 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3	eq: -0.187 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 42.94% (G:5.80% B:0.19%) 57.06% (G:4.32% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.194...-0.181) - [3.2%] Duration: 48 minutes 39 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72473954 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/2.

Even though I sometimes get a shot next turn, I will continue with my plan to further prepare my board and slot 7/2. This should win more often than 8/3. For 7/2 to fail, I have to hit a shot and be hit back and then fail to enter a board that usually will have a blot or two in it. The problem with 8/3 is that it can leave me some difficulties playing my next roll when I don’t get a shot.

Of course after 7/2, I may also roll a hit and cover joker if my opponents blot.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 113

11 point match

pip: 98 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-ABABBCb----bBB--a-bcbba--:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10

to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 121

11 point match

pip: 111 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bB--Bbabbbb---:0:0:1:11:2:0:0:11:10

to play 11

1.	Rollout1	16/14(2)	eq: +0.193
	Player: Opponent: 56.45% (G:2.86% B:0.08%) 43.55% (G:4.86% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.186...+0.200) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.	Rollout1	16/15(2) 6/4	eq: +0.088 (-0.105)
	Player: Opponent: 53.59% (G:3.72% B:0.12%) 46.41% (G:7.02% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.081...+0.095) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 29711821 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 16/14(2)
[ 9] 16/15(2) 6/4


After the roll we will be up 18 pips in the race. Building a stronger board is not important. So when ahead in the race – Race. 16/14(2).

This adds 61 to our list of good rolls.

Steve Sax recommends: 16/14(2)

In general, when you’re ahead race and when you’re behind play for contact.

In this case, White is ahead 14 pips after the play and should just try to get home safely.

By moving (16-14 [2]) he can safety his back checkers with (1-1, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5, 6-6 and 6-1). If he makes any other play he will have far fewer rolls that clear his back point.

And if anyone is concerned about giving Black too much room to maneuver his checkers by giving up control of the sixteen and fifteen-points, notice that Black has two spare checkers on his eight point and one spare checker on his seven point so White will have likely run out of timing far before Black does.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 121

11 point match

pip: 107 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bBB--babbbb---:0:0:-1:21:2:0:0:11:10

to play 21

1.	Rollout1	8/5	eq: -0.268
	Player: Opponent: 40.58% (G:5.18% B:0.14%) 59.42% (G:2.95% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.275...-0.261) - [97.0%] Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/7 8/6	eq: -0.277 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 40.26% (G:4.96% B:0.14%) 59.74% (G:2.85% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.284...-0.270) - [2.9%] Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.	Rollout1	8/6 7/6	eq: -0.283 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 39.95% (G:4.86% B:0.14%) 60.05% (G:2.95% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.291...-0.276) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72473954 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5.

It looks routine just to make and keep my bar point and 5 prime. But lets slow down and take a look at the future. My opponents won’t blot next roll (the 61 that is usually a horror clears nicely). Then I will have to play, and since I need to maintain both holding points, I will have to play into my board breaking my 5 prime, unless I roll 54 to make my 2 point. This means that my target is the 2 point rather than the bar point. 8/5 better aims at my 2 point since there are 3 builders. My 6 can also be played 8/2 rather than 7/1.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 118

11 point match

pip: 107 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bBB--aabcbb---:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10

to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 129

11 point match

pip: 120 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--B--BDbC---bB--Bcacbb----:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10

to play 54

1.	Rollout1	6/1 5/1	eq: +0.053
	Player: Opponent: 53.10% (G:4.31% B:0.14%) 46.90% (G:8.44% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.045...+0.060) - [77.8%] Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/4 6/1	eq: +0.048 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 52.99% (G:5.00% B:0.16%) 47.01% (G:8.67% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.040...+0.056) - [21.6%] Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
3.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: +0.041 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 53.56% (G:4.57% B:0.15%) 46.44% (G:6.27% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.033...+0.048) - [0.6%] Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89794243 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 8/4 6/1
[ 3] 8/3 6/2
[ 2] 13/9 13/8
[ 2] 6/1 5/1
[ 2] 16/11 8/4


I have a simple rule in these holding game positions – I volunteer a shot only after I have doubled. The reason is simple, if I double I may never need to leave a shot as my opponent could pass. I want to give a good double, so plays like 13/8 13/9 means I could get hit and never get my chance to double.

So if I scratch 13/8 13/9, both of my other choices involve 6/1 so I would play that then look at the resulting position. If I play 8/4, this is good for the bear off but it makes my 6’s awkward. So I would save a 6 and play 5/1. Note that this is not because I want a strong board; that is a small bonus but largely irrelevant.

In a chouette I would be happy with either play that involves 6/1.

Steve Sax:

There are two main themes here and they come down to should White risk the shot now before your opponent has a complete prime, or delay the shot and potentially be facing a better board and prime by Black.

I personally don’t like leaving the shot here for two reasons. The first reason is that you might be able to clear one of both of your outfield points with a timely double. The second reason is that whether you are hit now or later, it’s pretty daunting.

The main advantage of leaving the shot now is that seven of the hitting numbers still give you a seven off the bar to get back into the game. Only (2-1 and 2-6) hit and make the five-prime.

However that’s a pretty steep price to pay when you can get home without the additional risk.

When taking such a risk, I look for some compelling reasons to do so. For example, if White’s timing was even worse and he didn’t have a spare checker on his eight-point, that would most likely be correct to take the risk.

Also, if Black’s containment position was weaker, say he had his three-point instead of his four-point it probably would also be correct to take the risk.

However in this case, Black is in about as strong a position as you can imagine where it’s close at all to leave the shot.

The other plays that don’t leave the shot, further weaken your timing and give you bad sixes.

You can either make your ace-point which saves a spare checker on the eight-point or you can play (8-4, 6-1) or make the ace-point, which leaves fewer blots but guarantees that if White rolls any six (barring 6-6) he will put a piece out of play.

If he plays a slower development (8-4, 6-1) he might not put a piece out of play with a six but if the position gets to a scramble you might prefer to have your checkers more consolidated and not have too many blots in your board.

Positions like these are very instructive because all of the candidate plays are quite reasonable.

What you can do as an exercise is to manipulate several of the variables to see how much of a change needs to be make before any of the three candidate plays becomes clear.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 121

11 point match

pip: 111 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-AB-ABCbB---bB--Bbabbbb---:0:0:1:11:2:0:0:11:10

to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 133

11 point match

pip: 125 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--B--ADbBB--bB--Bdacba----:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	6/1	eq: +0.096
	Player: Opponent: 54.07% (G:3.58% B:0.13%) 45.93% (G:6.71% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.093...+0.100) - [99.4%] Duration: 11 hours 52 minutes
2.	Rollout1	6/5 6/2	eq: +0.091 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 53.88% (G:3.87% B:0.15%) 46.12% (G:6.57% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.087...+0.094) - [0.6%] Duration: 11 hours 53 minutes
3.	Rollout1	5/1 2/1	eq: +0.086 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 53.73% (G:3.55% B:0.13%) 46.27% (G:6.76% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.083...+0.089) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 hours 45 minutes
4.	Rollout1	9/8 9/5	eq: +0.076 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 53.39% (G:4.17% B:0.18%) 46.61% (G:6.54% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.073...+0.079) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 hours 52 minutes
5.	Rollout2	6/2 5/4	eq: +0.056 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 53.06% (G:3.34% B:0.12%) 46.94% (G:7.35% B:0.22%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.048...+0.064) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
6.	Rollout2	9/5 6/5	eq: +0.018 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 51.63% (G:7.46% B:0.35%) 48.37% (G:8.74% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.010...+0.027) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
7.	Rollout2	8/4 6/5	eq: -0.009 (-0.105)
	Player: Opponent: 51.19% (G:7.71% B:0.32%) 48.81% (G:9.53% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.017...0.000) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
8.	Rollout2	13/9 6/5	eq: -0.052 (-0.148)
	Player: Opponent: 49.58% (G:10.00% B:0.36%) 50.42% (G:9.25% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.061...-0.043) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89794243 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89794243 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 9/8 9/5
[ 3] 6/5 6/2
[ 3] 6/1
[ 1] 13/9 6/5
[ 1] 16/11


I see this misplayed a lot so I am glad this came up.

Our game plan here is just to bring our checkers home safely and bear off quickly. So any move that plays 9/5 , I would reject. The 9 point is a landing pad, and keeping it means we can play 54 from the midpoint if we want to. Sure it is one roll but we do not have to roll it next roll, if we keep the 9 point, we will have more than 1 roll to roll it.

So I would just more my internal checker(s) to give myself a good distribution of checkers. I would like to end up with at least 2 checkers on each of the 4, 5 and 6 points. I want to avoid ending up with more than 2 checkers on the 3, 2 or 1 point – especially at this stage, when an unfortunate 6 later on would put a fourth checker on the 2 point. I was drawn to 6/5 6/2 but this does put a third checker on the 2 point and gives us 1 less playable 5 inside our board.

5/1 2/1 takes a checker off our 5 point where we want it for the bear off so scratch that. That just leaves 6/1. This puts a checker on a vacant point, keeps our checker on the 5 point, and avoids putting another checker on our 2 point. So although it looks ugly, I have to play 6/1.

Steve Sax recommends: 6/1

I like (9-5, 9-8) but xG has it as a mistake. Why is that?

I can think of a few reasons right off the top of my head.

First of all, by breaking the nine-point if White rolls 5-4 he can’t safely break his midpoint. And with a modest race lead, his ambition should be to break outfield points preferably safely.

The second reason my play could be wrong is the fact that White has bad sixes. If you notice, White already owns the two-point and other than leaving a direct shot, the only safe six to play is from (8-2).

Black’s position rates to get better and better and White is either going to need some help with a timely double or the (5-4) that would have afforded him much needed timing to get his pieces home without leaving a shot.

A better move is the simple (6-1) which is still developmental and by the time White might leave a shot, he himself could have a four or even a five-point board.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 133

11 point match

pip: 120 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--B--BDbC---bB--Bdacba----:0:0:-1:31:2:0:0:11:10

to play 31

1.	Rollout1	8/4	eq: -0.124
	Player: Opponent: 44.83% (G:6.97% B:0.22%) 55.17% (G:4.12% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.132...-0.116) - [99.9%] Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/7 8/5	eq: -0.141 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 44.42% (G:6.94% B:0.21%) 55.58% (G:4.49% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.149...-0.133) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89794243 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4.

8/4 builds my board and is nicely distributed.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 129

11 point match

pip: 120 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--B--BDbC---bB--Bcacbb----:0:0:1:54:2:0:0:11:10

to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 136

11 point match

pip: 136 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--B---DbBB--bB--Cdaea-----:0:0:1:65:2:0:0:11:10

to play 65

1.	Rollout1	16/5	eq: +0.138
	Player: Opponent: 55.00% (G:4.37% B:0.19%) 45.00% (G:5.33% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.131...+0.146) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.	Rollout1	16/10 6/1	eq: +0.057 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 52.93% (G:4.57% B:0.16%) 47.07% (G:6.86% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.049...+0.065) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
3.	Rollout1	9/4 9/3	eq: +0.023 (-0.115)
	Player: Opponent: 51.82% (G:4.45% B:0.19%) 48.18% (G:6.93% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.015...+0.031) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89794243 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 16/5


We will be ahead in the race by 11 pips after the roll. The 5 point is a good point to start and also coming down to 2 checkers on both our 16 and 13 points means that doubles play better for us. To further see what I mean about doubles, look at how 55 and 33 play for us with 3 checkers on the 16 point (and 2 on the mid-point) and compare it to 2 checkers on both the 16 and mid points. 55 and 33 play better. I know those are only 2 rolls, but it all adds up.

16/5 and see what the dice bring us.

Steve Sax recommends: 16/5

If you can’t escape at least you can prepare to escape. By playing (16-5) White strips the outside point with a race lead.

That allows White to advance further with his escaping doubles such as (1-1, 3-3, 5-5 and 6-6).

And one more thing, if you don’t play (16-5) you have to give up an outfield point (probably the nine-point). By keeping the nine-point it gives White a better chance to bring his pieces home safely as White might elect to break his mid-point with 5-4 in the near future.

And for those of you experimental enough to consider (16-10, 6-1) that puts you in a situation of the “negative free roll”.

What that means is that Black will only hit you when it is to his advantage to do so with numbers like (3-1, 3-2 and 3-3!)

Would you play the lottery if you couldn’t win, but if someone picked the lucky six numbers you would have to pay them the grand prize?

I didn’t think so.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 136

11 point match

pip: 125 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--B--ADbBB--bB--Bdaea-----:0:0:-1:21:2:0:0:11:10

to play 21

1.	Rollout1	6/5 6/4	eq: -0.219
	Player: Opponent: 42.26% (G:5.83% B:0.20%) 57.74% (G:4.38% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.227...-0.210) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
2.	Rollout1	7/5 6/5	eq: -0.239 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 41.68% (G:5.28% B:0.19%) 58.32% (G:4.63% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.247...-0.232) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
3.	Rollout1	8/5	eq: -0.246 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 41.53% (G:5.54% B:0.17%) 58.47% (G:4.97% B:0.22%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.254...-0.239) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89794243 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 6/4.

This roll allows me to make my 5 point and slot the next point in line. I want to create a winning board/prime if I hit a shot later.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 133

11 point match

pip: 125 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--B--ADbBB--bB--Bdacba----:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:11:10

to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 152

11 point match

pip: 153 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=------EbCB--dB-aBc-e---A--:0:0:1:64:2:0:0:11:10

to play 64

1.	Rollout1	8/2 6/2	eq: -0.007
	Player: Opponent: 51.22% (G:9.96% B:0.34%) 48.78% (G:10.31% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.017...+0.004) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.	Rollout1	9/5 9/3	eq: -0.059 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 49.80% (G:9.89% B:0.34%) 50.20% (G:11.00% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.069...-0.050) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89794243 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 8/2 6/2
[ 5] 9/5 9/3


There could be some hitting going on (we hope) so we need to prepare for it. We need to have another point in our board and we need it now, and the only point that we can make is the 2 point so it will have to do.

On the good side, we have 10 checkers in the zone and after we play 8/2 6/2 we will have a better board.

Even if Neil does not leave an immediate shot, improving our board must be a good thing.

Steve Sax recommends: 8/2 6/2

When I first looked at this position I wondered, what’s the big deal? It seems like the only reasonable play is to make the two-point.

White is ahead in the race and can’t or escape, so he should at least improve his position in some concrete way.

By making the two-point White adds to the strength of his home board, and should Black leave a shot (which he does a third to half of the time) White will be better prepared to contain Black should he be hit.

Is there any other reasonable play besides making the two-point?

Well, slotting the five and three points by breaking the nine-point isn’t terribly out of line.

It comes down to the question of a bird in the hand versus two in the bush.

Is it better to have the two-point which is a weak point, or attempt to make the five and three-points?

If White makes the double slotting play and Black leaves a shot, White might hit and make a new point in his board, or roll a number that hits but can’t make a second point in his board so risking the blots might not pay off immediately.

If Black didn’t have White’s bar-point then the double slotting move might be a better choice as it could lead to White being able to prime Black in.

However, even if White is able to make his five and three points and then hit Black, White can’t prime Black in due to Black owning the 18-point.

Also, if you make the conservative “two-point”, there is nothing saying you won’t develop your middle board points more slowly. And since both sides are at a developmental stage, there is a lot of time before very crucial sequences may occur.

I suppose since it’s right to make the two-point that that that in general it’s better to for the bird in the hand. Unless of course that little birdy hasn’t been to the bathroom yet.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 152

11 point match

pip: 143 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--B---DbBB--dB-aBc-e---A--:0:0:-1:41:2:0:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	Rollout1	10/5	eq: -0.245
	Player: Opponent: 43.01% (G:8.72% B:0.32%) 56.99% (G:13.07% B:0.46%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.256...-0.235) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
2.	Rollout1	6/2* 2/1	eq: -0.285 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 42.20% (G:8.19% B:0.24%) 57.80% (G:13.72% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.294...-0.275) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
3.	Rollout1	10/6 8/7	eq: -0.313 (-0.067)
	Player: Opponent: 41.31% (G:7.93% B:0.28%) 58.69% (G:13.33% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.324...-0.302) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89794243 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5.

As I have to blot no matter what, I’ll just play constructively and slot my 5 point.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 147

11 point match

pip: 136 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--B---DbBB--dB--Cc-ea-----:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10

to play 65

1.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.099
	Player: Opponent: 46.40% (G:4.43% B:0.14%) 53.60% (G:3.39% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.107...-0.092) - [99.7%] Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 8/3	eq: -0.115 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 46.11% (G:4.26% B:0.14%) 53.89% (G:3.80% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.123...-0.107) - [0.3%] Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89794243 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 13/7.

13/8 13/7 tries to make good points in case an early shot somehow pops up. I can move deeper into my board later.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 136

11 point match

pip: 136 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--B---DbBB--bB--Cdaea-----:0:0:1:65:2:0:0:11:10

to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 159

11 point match

pip: 178 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a----E-Ca--eD---c-e---AAA:0:0:1:44:2:0:0:11:10

to play 44

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21 24/20 13/9*(2)	eq: +0.117
	Player: Opponent: 53.10% (G:15.47% B:0.75%) 46.90% (G:10.82% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.112...+0.122) - [96.8%] Duration: 19 hours 59 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/9* 8/4(2)	eq: +0.110 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 52.41% (G:19.63% B:0.90%) 47.59% (G:12.83% B:0.71%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.105...+0.115) - [3.2%] Duration: 17 hours 19 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/21 13/9* 6/2(2)	eq: +0.071 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 51.58% (G:18.16% B:0.87%) 48.42% (G:12.47% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.059...+0.083) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes
4.	Rollout2	Bar/21 24/16 13/9*	eq: +0.005 (-0.112)
	Player: Opponent: 50.77% (G:14.98% B:0.77%) 49.23% (G:13.45% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.007...+0.018) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes
5.	Rollout2	Bar/21 13/9*(2) 6/2	eq: -0.043 (-0.160)
	Player: Opponent: 49.71% (G:14.66% B:0.63%) 50.29% (G:13.60% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.055...-0.032) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes
6.	Rollout2	Bar/21 13/9*(3)	eq: -0.061 (-0.177)
	Player: Opponent: 49.05% (G:15.05% B:0.73%) 50.95% (G:12.82% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.072...-0.049) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
7.	Rollout2	Bar/21 13/9*(2) 8/4	eq: -0.062 (-0.178)
	Player: Opponent: 49.09% (G:15.65% B:0.73%) 50.91% (G:14.20% B:0.82%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.073...-0.050) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
8.	Rollout2	Bar/21 13/9* 9/1*	eq: -0.068 (-0.185)
	Player: Opponent: 48.52% (G:15.24% B:0.38%) 51.48% (G:13.39% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.080...-0.057) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46433025 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46433025 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] b/21 24/20 13/9*(2)
[ 7] b/21 13/9* 8/4(2)
[ 3] b/21 13/9* 6/2(2)
[ 3] b/21 13/9*/1*
[ 1] b/21 13/9*(3)


We enter Bar/21 then hit 13/9* then decide how to pay the last two 4’s.

We could play 8/4(2) making an inner board point but this leaves return shots from the bar on our side of the board.

Better is playing 13/9 and 24/20. This puts another checker into our attack zone and starts the 20 point. Even if we are hit with a Joker 33 or 11 we would have good chances of anchoring on the 21 point. This seems like the natural play to me.

Steve Sax recommends: b/21 24/20 13/9*(2)

After entering with the forced four (bar-21), I look to see what my highest priorities are.

In this case, my second four will be to hit (13-9*), which leaves two more fours.

I can either play another checker from 13-9 making the nine-point or play 8-4 twice making my four point.

If I do continue to play 13-9 and make the nine-point I’ll play 24-20 with the last four.

What is my reasoning for either play which by the way both seem reasonable?

My first choice would be to play (bar-21, 13-9*[2], 24-20). I like that because it doesn’t leave any shots on my side of the board, and still prepares to make inner board points on subsequent rolls barring a joker by Black on his next shake.

Black does have some strong shots from the bar (1-1, 2-2 and 4-4) but for the most part, White will be prepared to either improve his position on his next shake by hitting Black and sending him back (should Black have entered from the bar hitting), make a high anchor in Black’s board, or making a new point in White’s board.

The other, more aggressive move is to enter, hit and make White’s four-point. This move puts Black on the bar against a two-point board, but leaves himself vulnerable to eight return shots.

In actuality the plays are very close so not much equity is gained or sacrificed by either move so how do you know over the board which one is better?

Let’s try to compare Black’s rolls after each move to see if there is some concrete mathematical evidence for which play is stronger?

After play “A”, making the nine-point, Black has eight “good to great” rolls versus one bad roll (6-6). The stronger rolls for Black are (1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-3, 4-4 and 5-4) a net gain of seven beneficial rolls for Black.

After play “B”, making White’s four-point Black has twelve “good to great” rolls versus the four rolls that fail to enter.

Those twelve rolls include (1-1, 2-2, 3-2, 6-2, 5-3, 6-3 and 5-4).

So after subtracting the four bad rolls for Black from his twelve good rolls, that leaves a net gain of eight rolls for Black following White’s choice to make an inner board point.

That’s slightly in favor of making the nine point as you leave one fewer net good rolls for Black.

Perhaps the closeness of this ratio to some extent answers why the plays are very close in equity.

It’s not an exact science as it would take more insight or post game work to truly indicate how much equity is lost after a “good” roll for Black as compared to what equity is gained after a bad roll for Black.

I don’t know too many players that could make those calculations over the board, so perhaps this shortcut of “good rolls gained or lost” is a reasonable short cut to help determine which checker play to make.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 168

11 point match

pip: 162 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=aa----E-CB--eB---c-eAA-A--:0:0:-1:62:2:0:0:11:10

to play 62

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 24/18	eq: -0.236
	Player: Opponent: 44.32% (G:9.16% B:0.38%) 55.68% (G:16.56% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.249...-0.224) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 8/2*	eq: -0.296 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 42.56% (G:9.71% B:0.47%) 57.44% (G:17.19% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.308...-0.284) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46433025 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 24/18.

I must hop out 24/18, as 8/2* strips my 8 point and weakens my game and 13/7 is a triple shot. 24/18 also can take advantage of the fact that my opponent’s 9 and 13 points are stripped.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 160

11 point match

pip: 153 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=--a---EaCB--eB--Bc-e---A--:0:0:-1:53:2:0:0:11:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	23/18 13/10	eq: -0.135
	Player: Opponent: 45.57% (G:8.07% B:0.28%) 54.43% (G:9.65% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.146...-0.124) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
2.	Rollout1	23/18 6/3	eq: -0.181 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 44.53% (G:7.57% B:0.27%) 55.47% (G:10.32% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.191...-0.171) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
3.	Rollout1	23/18 8/5	eq: -0.210 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 43.70% (G:7.99% B:0.26%) 56.30% (G:10.83% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.221...-0.199) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 58 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46433025 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/18 13/10.

23/18 is a must, making a good anchor and minimizing any attacking threats against me. Now I have a choice of three 3’s. 8/5 is rejected as an improper slot stripping my 8 point while leaving a large stack on my 6 point. So the choice is between 6/3 leaving only 11 shots and 13/10 leaving 15 shots. I give a slight nod to 13/10 as a builder for some key points and since most of the numbers that hit leave return shots. I also lose fewer pips when hit on the 10 point rather than the 3 point.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 152

11 point match

pip: 153 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=------EbCB--dB-aBc-e---A--:0:0:1:64:2:0:0:11:10

to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 164

11 point match

pip: 135 score: 1 is USBGF Members

XGID=aa--BBC-C---cCb--cBe------:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.57% (G:31.28% B:1.13%)	75.43% (G:33.80% B:1.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.43% (G:4.18% B:0.18%)	24.57% (G:4.56% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.810	+1.692
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+1.053	±0.007 (+1.046..+1.060)
Double/Take:	+1.479 (+0.426)	±0.013 (+1.466..+1.492)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (-0.053)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 11.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 42962911 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] Double
[ 6] No Double


Let’s use the Value Equation :- VE = Prime + Blitz + Race + Contact

Prime = +2 as we have 4/5 points of a prime

Blitz = +2.5 as we have good blitzing points plus an opponent’s checker on the bar

Race = +3

Contact = +1 as Neil has no anchor, no board and is on the bar so has limited contact.

so VE = 2 + 2.5 + 3 + 1 = 8.5

One of the strange things about Backgammon in New Zealand is the Jacoby rule is not used in money play. This makes the transition to match play much easier, and means I always think “am I too good to double?”. I always like to think about a position in terms of a money game (or normal match score) then alter it to the score. Here for money without Jacoby I think this is too Good to Double but would double as I would get some takes. For Money with Jacoby you have to double and I think it would be a close pass. If this is too good to double without Jacoby (or at a Normal match score) then a 1 point lead means we must still be too Good to double. I am also confident that Neil will pass.

I could be wrong but let’s play on and re-evaluate next turn.

Neil Kazaross passes.

I have a huge pass here, and I think the USBGF Members were actually too good. I’m on the bar, and even if I roll a 32, I still will be a substantial underdog.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 167

11 point match

pip: 162 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:53:2:0:0:11:10

to play 53

1.	Rollout1	24/16*	eq: +0.218
	Player: Opponent: 54.50% (G:14.68% B:0.77%) 45.50% (G:12.68% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.206...+0.230) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/3 6/3	eq: -0.064 (-0.283)
	Player: Opponent: 47.47% (G:13.94% B:0.63%) 52.53% (G:16.04% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.076...-0.053) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46433025 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/16*.

I’m happy to hit 24/16*, which is lots better than making my 3 point.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 159

11 point match

pip: 178 score: 2 is USBGF Members

XGID=-a----E-Ca--eD---c-e---AAA:0:0:1:44:2:0:0:11:10

to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 101

11 point match

pip: 32 score: 0 is USBGF Members

XGID=-ABaC-a--------Aaa-cc-bab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.70% (G:37.39% B:1.30%)	72.63% (G:37.23% B:1.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	27.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.848	+1.728
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.848 (-0.152)	±0.006 (+0.843..+0.854)
Double/Take:	+1.502 (+0.502)	±0.008 (+1.493..+1.510)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 42962911 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] Double
[13] No Double


I will approach this as I would over the board. We know that we win 49.2% of the time with 8 checkers off and we have a checker on the bar and no gap on our 1 point. We might be missed and so not end up on the bar, therefore we have to have a greater than 50% chance of winning. The fact that Black has two gaps in his board, and a blot in one of them and we could win a Gammon means this has to be either a double or Too Good to Double. As it is not immediately obvious to me that it is too Good, I would Double and give my opponent the tough decision.

I asked myself ‘Would I double if Black had a stronger board?’ So I gave Black a closed board and I still like the double.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 92

11 point match

pip: 32 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-ABaC-a——–Aa–bbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Steve Sax recommends: Double

I would double as White and expect Neil to pass.

While White can still win a gammon, there is too great a chance he can leave a shot and be hit and then potentially lose the game.

What I would do in a situation like this is to go through White’s numbers and see how many times Black gets a single shot, a double shot and no shots. Then I try to estimate how often White will be hit and possibly lose.

White has six great rolls (1-1, 2-1, 5-5 and 6-5) which either safety the back checker or hit and cover in his home board.

His good rolls include (3-1, 2-2, 3-2, 3-3 and 6-4) which either leave only indirect shots, or a single shot. he exception is 3-3 which leaves a little more than a single shot, but in the process, hits and makes another point in his board which enhance his game winning and gammon chances.

On thirteen rolls White is in fair shape as he only leaves a single direct shot as well as an indirect shot. Those numbers include (4-1, 5-1, 4-2, 5-2, 4-3, 5-3). I also include 4-4 as a fair shake even though it leaves a double shot, as White will win a gammon if he is missed.

Another nine times, White will roll a poor shake where he will leave a double shot. Those rolls include (6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-6 and 5-4). Taking a look at (6-6) it’s a great shot if you are missed, but you will be hit 75% of the time after this highly volatile roll.

So if you look at the breakdown between “great, good, fair and poor” rolls, the ratio is “6-great, 8-good, 13-fair, and 9 poor”.

That is slightly skewed to the fair to poor end of the spectrum and while this isn’t entirely scientific, for OTB quick analysis it indicates to me that is isn’t quite “too good” but still a double and pass since White already has eight checkers off.

That is indeed the case here although there is no guarantee that if you use this rough guess “great-poor” spectrum analysis you will get the correct action.

What makes it tempting to play on is the fact that Black has two points open in his board. Should White leave a shot and then be hit, he still has a reasonable chance to escape and win the game with some small gammon aspirations still available.

Neil Kazaross passes.

This is a huge pass for me since while I win enough games to take, I get gammoned too often when I don’t hit. Hitting also doesn’t come close to guaranteeing a win. Yet my opponents don’t have a good enough game to risk playing on, and they will be unhappy to be hit especially if they roll something that hits me and I then can pick up more than one checker.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 164

11 point match

pip: 135 score: 1 is USBGF Members

XGID=aa--BBC-C---cCb--cBe------:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 127

11 point match

pip: 45 score: 0 is USBGF Members

XGID=-aBaD--a----aa-----bbbb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	38.22% (G:10.25% B:1.11%)	38.14% (G:10.22% B:1.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	61.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	61.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.119	-0.237
Cubeful Equities
No double:	-0.271	±0.009 (-0.280..-0.261)
Double/Take:	-0.789 (-0.519)	±0.017 (-0.807..-0.772)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.271)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 70582678 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 41 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] No Double
[ 5] Double


We are ahead in the race, but the good news ends there. Neil is well diversified in the outfield and 21, 22 and 23 leave an immediate shot by exposing another blot.

I order to double, we would have to be on the 23 point with our 4 checkers on the 4 point moved to our 3 point or 1 point and even then it would still be a take.

To use the Value Equation I would give us = Race 2 + Prime 0 + Blitz -3 + Contact -5 = -6. This would be a bad double.

Steve Sax recommends: No Double

A good reference position to remember is when White (for example) has eight checker off and is closed out he is about 50/50 to win cubeless.

That assumes White’s remaining six checkers are on the ace and deuce with no gaps and no additional blots. It also assumes Black has a closed board with spares on his high points spread out.

What does that position have to do with the position in question today?

Well there are two dramatic differences in that ideal reference position which will alter the winning percentage of White.

The first on is in Black’s favor. Instead of having four on his ace-point and two on his two-point, he has two on his two-point and four on his four-point which is an extra twelve pips to bear off.

Now I don’t know exactly how those extra pips translate to extra shakes needed to bear off all of your checkers and how that impacts your winning percentage, but assuming perfect efficiency, twelve pips is one and a half rolls.

So I’m assuming with less than optimal efficiency that would be in the neighborhood of two additional shakes to bear off all of your checkers which will alter White’s winning percentage in a dramatic but yet undetermined fashion.

The second variable in determining White’s chances is the fact that Black has his deuce-point open with five checkers to bring around to board in an attempt to close White out.

Since Black doesn’t have any attackers in the vicinity of his home board, White can come in with a deuce and roll a big double (5-5) or (6-6) and potentially escape and win a gammon.

How often that happens is also a chore to determine.

What I’m getting at is that when you get to a position that varies from your typical reference position you’re going to have to do a lot of guess work when it comes to assessing how multiple variables impact the chance from the original reference position.

One thing I do not over the board, but after I get to such an unusual position is develop a four square of reference positions that all tie the position in question to a known reference position.

In this case, the two variables are the placement of White’s checkers from his four-point to his ace-point and the other variable to chance is the five loose blots for Black to close the board out and place his spare checkers in a decent place.

What will result is four positions that can be labeled A1, A2, B1, B2.

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 127

Unlimited Game

pip: 45 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-aBaD–a—-aa—–bbbb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 57

Unlimited Game

pip: 45 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=–B-D————–cccbbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 124

Unlimited Game

pip: 33 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-DBaa–a—-aa—–bbbb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 57

Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver

pip: 33 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-DB—————-cccbbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

A1 is the position in question and B2 is the known reference position.

“A” being White’s existing position and “B” being White’s position from the known “reference position”.

“1” being Blacks existing position and “2” being Black’s position from the known reference position.

So you will then have two new reference positions, A2 and B1.

“A2” will be White’s position from the game in question and Black having a closed board with spares in good spots.

“B1” will be White’s position from the known reference position and Black’s position from the game in question.

From there you will have more evidence to make an attempt to interpolate how the two variables interact with each other and you should have a better idea how to assess equity and how small (or in this case) large changes impact overall equity in the position.

Ideally I would rather have the independent variables not be so dramatically different from the original position, but if the existing position is that far from your known reference position you might be forced to take a leap of faith in your ability to make those mental changes from what you know to what you theorize.

Since in the best scenario for White (“B1”) he’s only 55%, you can infer that the original position can’t be a double.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 127

11 point match

pip: 45 score: 0 is USBGF Members

XGID=-aBaD--a----aa-----bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	18/16 12/11	eq: +0.192
	Player: Opponent: 60.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.75% (G:9.97% B:1.18%)
2.	XG Roller++	18/15	eq: +0.191 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 60.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.74% (G:9.78% B:1.21%)
3.	XG Roller++	22/20 18/17	eq: +0.191 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 60.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.59% (G:9.59% B:1.09%)
4.	XG Roller++	22/20 12/11	eq: +0.187 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 60.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.66% (G:9.85% B:1.08%)
5.	XG Roller++	18/17 12/10	eq: +0.182 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 60.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.94% (G:10.01% B:1.19%)
6.	XG Roller++	22/19	eq: +0.181 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 59.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.05% (G:9.63% B:1.00%)
7.	XG Roller++	12/9	eq: +0.177 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 60.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.95% (G:10.13% B:1.24%)
8.	XG Roller++	13/10	eq: +0.173 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 59.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.04% (G:10.19% B:1.20%)
9.	XG Roller++	18/17 13/11	eq: +0.166 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 59.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.29% (G:10.40% B:1.23%)
10.	XG Roller++	18/16 13/12	eq: +0.157 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 59.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.43% (G:10.49% B:1.12%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/15.

My checkers are fine where they are on midpoints, and I want to keep both checkers back in my opponents’ board for now in case they enter poorly. After 18/15, my 44 can be used to hit them if the hop with 52 and my 61 can hit them if the hop with 62. This seems to give the best coverage.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 124

11 point match

pip: 45 score: 0 is USBGF Members

XGID=-aBaD-----a-aa-----bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:44:0:0:0:11:10

to play 44

1.	XG Roller++	22/10 15/11	eq: +0.252
	Player: Opponent: 60.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.18% (G:6.88% B:0.73%)
2.	XG Roller++	22/14 15/11 12/8	eq: +0.244 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 60.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.31% (G:7.38% B:0.87%)
3.	XG Roller++	22/14 15/11 13/9	eq: +0.232 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 60.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.61% (G:7.17% B:0.70%)
4.	XG Roller++	22/10 12/8	eq: +0.218 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 60.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.80% (G:7.63% B:0.84%)
5.	XG Roller++	22/18 15/11 13/9 12/8	eq: +0.218 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 60.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.73% (G:7.94% B:0.90%)
6.	XG Roller++	22/6	eq: +0.214 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 59.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.35% (G:7.49% B:0.79%)
7.	XG Roller++	22/14 15/7	eq: +0.207 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 59.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.12% (G:8.20% B:0.97%)
8.	XG Roller++	22/10 13/9	eq: +0.199 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 59.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.64% (G:7.57% B:0.77%)
9.	XG Roller++	22/14 13/9 12/8	eq: +0.198 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 59.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.31% (G:7.96% B:0.93%)
10.	XG Roller++	22/14 13/5	eq: +0.194 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 59.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.67% (G:7.85% B:0.79%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays .

I can’t reasonably keep both checkers back anymore. 22/10 15/11 gives me quadruple coverage if they hop and 4 builders for my 7 and 8 points.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 108

11 point match

pip: 45 score: 0 is USBGF Members

XGID=-aB-D-------aaaa---bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:11:0:0:0:11:10

to play 11

1.	XG Roller++	12/8	eq: +0.258
	Player: Opponent: 60.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.23% (G:6.69% B:0.72%)
2.	XG Roller++	11/8 10/9	eq: +0.248 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 60.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.30% (G:7.14% B:0.84%)
3.	XG Roller++	10/6	eq: +0.245 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 60.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.65% (G:6.90% B:0.71%)
4.	XG Roller++	13/9	eq: +0.235 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 60.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.75% (G:6.89% B:0.68%)
5.	XG Roller++	13/12 11/8	eq: +0.231 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 60.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.78% (G:6.91% B:0.65%)
6.	XG Roller++	13/11 10/8	eq: +0.230 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 60.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.88% (G:7.20% B:0.70%)
7.	XG Roller++	11/7	eq: +0.196 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 59.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.62% (G:7.87% B:0.96%)
8.	XG Roller++	12/9 11/10	eq: +0.191 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 58.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 41.14% (G:7.10% B:0.66%)
9.	XG Roller++	12/9 10/9	eq: +0.190 (-0.068)
	Player: Opponent: 58.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 41.26% (G:7.06% B:0.62%)
10.	XG Roller++	13/12 10/7	eq: +0.173 (-0.085)
	Player: Opponent: 58.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 41.08% (G:8.10% B:0.83%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/8.

As my checkers continue to get pushed forward, I think I should try to make my 8 point. I’ll risk 12/8 noting that I have quite a few return shots if I get hit. This checker is also useful to hit on the 2 point.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 104

11 point match

pip: 45 score: 0 is USBGF Members

XGID=-aB-D-------a-aa-a-bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10

to play 21

1.	XG Roller++	13/12 10/8	eq: +0.297
	Player: Opponent: 61.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 38.54% (G:5.04% B:0.48%)
2.	XG Roller++	11/8	eq: +0.288 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 61.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 38.54% (G:5.37% B:0.50%)
3.	XG Roller++	13/12 11/9	eq: +0.242 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 60.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.66% (G:6.43% B:0.70%)
4.	XG Roller++	13/12 8/6	eq: +0.227 (-0.070)
	Player: Opponent: 59.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.36% (G:6.39% B:0.64%)
5.	XG Roller++	10/9 8/6	eq: +0.224 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 59.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.31% (G:6.73% B:0.72%)
6.	XG Roller++	10/7	eq: +0.222 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 60.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.87% (G:7.59% B:0.97%)
7.	XG Roller++	13/10	eq: +0.213 (-0.084)
	Player: Opponent: 59.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.54% (G:6.92% B:0.67%)
8.	XG Roller++	8/5	eq: +0.207 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 59.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.78% (G:6.59% B:0.61%)
9.	XG Roller++	13/11 10/9	eq: +0.204 (-0.093)
	Player: Opponent: 59.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.60% (G:7.46% B:0.74%)
10.	XG Roller++	11/9 10/9	eq: +0.196 (-0.101)
	Player: Opponent: 58.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 41.01% (G:7.38% B:0.69%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/8.

10/8 covers the 8 point per plan, and then I don’t see much difference between the ones. 11/10 looks to my eye to be a tad more diversified than 13/12 so that is my ace. Both plays leave me 30 shots if they hop with 52 (assuming my counting is correct).

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 101

11 point match

pip: 45 score: 0 is USBGF Members

XGID=-aB-D-------a--a-b-bbbb-bA:0:0:-1:41:0:0:0:11:10

to play 41

1.	XG Roller++	13/12 10/6	eq: +0.289
	Player: Opponent: 61.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 38.79% (G:4.76% B:0.45%)
2.	XG Roller++	10/5	eq: +0.276 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 60.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.14% (G:4.62% B:0.39%)
3.	XG Roller++	13/8	eq: +0.265 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 60.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.53% (G:4.74% B:0.39%)
4.	XG Roller++	13/9 10/9	eq: +0.242 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 59.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.30% (G:4.74% B:0.40%)
5.	XG Roller++	13/9 8/7	eq: +0.205 (-0.084)
	Player: Opponent: 59.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.34% (G:7.44% B:0.87%)
6.	XG Roller++	13/12 8/4	eq: +0.202 (-0.087)
	Player: Opponent: 58.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 41.14% (G:5.91% B:0.57%)
7.	XG Roller++	10/6 8/7	eq: +0.187 (-0.102)
	Player: Opponent: 59.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 40.90% (G:7.52% B:0.88%)
8.	XG Roller++	10/9 8/4	eq: +0.182 (-0.107)
	Player: Opponent: 58.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 41.51% (G:6.51% B:0.77%)
9.	XG Roller++	8/3	eq: +0.180 (-0.109)
	Player: Opponent: 58.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 41.51% (G:6.63% B:0.76%)
10.	XG Roller++	24/19	eq: +0.180 (-0.109)
	Player: Opponent: 58.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 41.75% (G:5.34% B:0.42%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12 10/6.

Chance to pick up a 2nd blot are becoming less as I am forced to advance. But I still will hang back as a 21 entry or worse yet a 22 gives me a strong cube. 13/12 10/6 looks normal and diversified.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 97

11 point match

pip: 40 score: 0 is USBGF Members

XGID=aAB-C--------a---b-cbbbAb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	65.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.64% (G:6.80% B:0.52%)	34.28% (G:6.77% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.232	+0.481
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.348
Double/Take:	+0.271 (-0.078)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.652)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I think that the other blotting entries gave me a fine cube, but here as I cannot wait on the ace point for more chances to pick up the blot while attacking on my 2 point and noting that I may experience the horror of cubing and dancing, I clearly have no double.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 97

11 point match

pip: 40 score: 0 is USBGF Members

XGID=aAB-C--------a---b-cbbbAb-:0:0:-1:32:0:0:0:11:10

to play 32

1.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 4/2*	eq: -0.057
	Player: Opponent: 54.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 45.77% (G:15.02% B:1.35%)
2.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 12/10	eq: -0.106 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 48.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 51.65% (G:7.91% B:0.35%)
3.	XG Roller++	Bar/22 6/4	eq: -0.116 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 47.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 52.07% (G:8.51% B:0.47%)
4.	XG Roller++	Bar/20	eq: -0.126 (-0.069)
	Player: Opponent: 47.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 52.25% (G:8.27% B:0.40%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 4/2*.

I think it is time to let the fun start, since I will win almost every game where I can pick up a second checker. If I don’t hit, then they escape with 5’s and only blot with 32 and 11 and I am often forced to attack and take risks next turn.

Hitting will of course lose more gammons, but I think it brings an adequate number of extra wins to be worth the risk.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 113

11 point match

pip: 32 score: 0 is USBGF Members

XGID=aABaC--------a-A-b-cb-bab-:0:0:-1:33:0:0:0:11:10

to play 33