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USBGF OLM 2019-04-11

April 21, 2019 by 6 Comments
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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCA--b--C-b-bbbBaaab-:1:1:1:32:3:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/8eq: -0.206
Player:
Opponent:		34.16% (G:4.44% B:0.15%)
65.84% (G:3.78% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.208...-0.204) - [77.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 5/2eq: -0.207 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		34.07% (G:4.80% B:0.16%)
65.93% (G:4.18% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.209...-0.205) - [12.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
3.xgRollout17/2eq: -0.208 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		33.98% (G:4.70% B:0.15%)
66.02% (G:3.85% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.210...-0.206) - [9.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
4.Rollout213/11 6/3eq: -0.212 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		33.86% (G:4.41% B:0.24%)
66.14% (G:4.22% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.216...-0.207) - [0.5%]
Duration: 21 minutes 22 seconds
5.Rollout213/11 7/4eq: -0.214 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		33.77% (G:4.54% B:0.17%)
66.23% (G:4.27% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.218...-0.209) - [0.1%]
Duration: 22 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 13/8
[ 9] 13/11 7/4
[ 8] 7/2
[ 4] 13/11 6/3

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

If Neil had a better board, we should just play 13/8.

With Neil having those three blots, we do not mind being hit. Being hit means we could pick up more blots and increase our chances of winning a gammon. Therefore, plays like 7/2, not fearing being hit, and 13/11 7/4 and 13/11 6/3 could easily be right. Even 13/11 5/2 has merit.

However, Neil does have a broken 5 prime so we should just go with 13/8, as it gives us more rolls to cover the blot on our 7 point, is a slot for the 8 point and gives us more rolls to make the 2 point.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCAA-b--B-b-bbbBaaab-:1:1:-1:65:3:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout18/3 8/2eq: +0.096
Player:
Opponent:		61.27% (G:5.54% B:0.18%)
38.73% (G:6.17% B:0.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.091...+0.100) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout115/10 15/9eq: +0.053 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:		60.77% (G:2.48% B:0.12%)
39.23% (G:8.20% B:0.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.049...+0.057) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 8/2.

An interesting roll since perhaps paying off the 11 number shot is right at DMP, but just perhaps. Here I will lose too many gammons when hit, as my awful homeboard will provide little defense. Therefore, with gammons counting I don’t pay off.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 92
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 123
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCAA-b--B-b--bbBabbb-:1:1:1:53:3:4:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Mon 4/22 845p Eastern time.

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-04-10

April 16, 2019 by 8 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 132
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-AAb--C-b-bbdB-aaa-:1:1:1:11:3:4:0:11:10
to play 11

1.XG Roller++13/12 9/7 3/2eq: -0.216
Player:
Opponent:		32.69% (G:3.46% B:0.07%)
67.31% (G:3.82% B:0.08%)
2.XG Roller++13/12 8/7 3/2(2)eq: -0.217 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		32.66% (G:3.11% B:0.05%)
67.34% (G:3.41% B:0.04%)
3.XG Roller++13/12 8/6 3/2eq: -0.218 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		32.67% (G:3.59% B:0.07%)
67.33% (G:4.11% B:0.09%)
4.XG Roller++13/12 9/6eq: -0.219 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		32.55% (G:3.18% B:0.06%)
67.45% (G:3.49% B:0.04%)
5.XG Roller++13/12 8/5eq: -0.221 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		32.50% (G:3.16% B:0.06%)
67.50% (G:3.56% B:0.05%)
6.XG Roller++13/11 3/2(2)eq: -0.221 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		32.46% (G:3.10% B:0.05%)
67.54% (G:3.35% B:0.04%)
7.XG Roller++13/11 8/7 3/2eq: -0.222 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		32.34% (G:3.27% B:0.06%)
67.66% (G:3.45% B:0.05%)
8.XG Roller++13/12 9/8 3/2(2)eq: -0.223 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		32.42% (G:3.12% B:0.06%)
67.58% (G:3.47% B:0.04%)
9.XG Roller++13/12 4/2 3/2eq: -0.223 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		32.46% (G:3.41% B:0.06%)
67.54% (G:3.88% B:0.09%)
10.XG Roller++13/12 9/8 4/2eq: -0.225 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		32.43% (G:3.37% B:0.06%)
67.57% (G:3.99% B:0.09%)
11.xgXG Roller++13/12 9/7 8/7eq: -0.225 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		32.32% (G:3.12% B:0.06%)
67.68% (G:3.54% B:0.04%)
12.playedXG Roller++9/6 8/7eq: -0.228 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		32.17% (G:3.09% B:0.05%)
67.83% (G:3.37% B:0.05%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 9/6 8/7
[13] 13/12 9/7 8/7
[ 4] 13/11 9/7
[ 3] 13/12 9/6
[ 1] 13/12 8/6 3/2
[ 1] 13/12(3) 9/8
[ 1] 13/12(3) 8/7
[ 1] 9/5

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 9/7

Over the board my play would have been 13/11 9/7. If we look at Neil’s three blots, that says we have a lot of freedom to just make the move that we want to make. Because of those blots, we can move a checker off our 13 point to make it harder for Neil to run of his checkers on his 15 point to safety.

We should play 13/11 then 8/7 and think about the last 1. I decided on 9/8 so the overall move is 13/11 9/7 but trying to make our board better with the ultra-flexible and slightly crazy 3/2 could also be correct. Those three blots give us a lot of freedom.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCA--b--C-b-bbdB-aaa-:1:1:-1:52:3:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedXG Roller++6/4 6/1eq: +0.159
Player:
Opponent:		65.07% (G:3.56% B:0.05%)
34.93% (G:3.89% B:0.07%)
2.XG Roller++8/6 8/3eq: +0.112 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		63.22% (G:4.00% B:0.06%)
36.78% (G:4.80% B:0.10%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4 6/1.

Spare checkers are for handling awkward rolls, so now I can hold everything for another turn. Note that I would be happy to have been able to jettison the 10 point with any safe roll as it doesn’t give me more rolls to clear the 15 point.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCA--b--C-b-bbbBaaab-:1:1:1:32:3:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-04-09

April 15, 2019 by 8 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-BAb--C-b-bcdB-aa--:1:1:1:53:3:4:0:11:10
to play 53

1.XG Roller++9/6 8/3eq: -0.250
Player:
Opponent:		31.32% (G:2.53% B:0.04%)
68.68% (G:2.98% B:0.04%)
2.XG Roller++13/5eq: -0.251 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		31.28% (G:2.36% B:0.04%)
68.72% (G:2.80% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller++13/8 6/3eq: -0.251 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		31.26% (G:2.39% B:0.04%)
68.74% (G:2.76% B:0.03%)
4.XG Roller++9/4 6/3eq: -0.251 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		31.28% (G:2.44% B:0.04%)
68.72% (G:2.89% B:0.03%)
5.XG Roller++8/5 8/3eq: -0.251 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		31.29% (G:2.46% B:0.05%)
68.71% (G:2.90% B:0.03%)
6.playedXG Roller++8/3 6/3eq: -0.252 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		31.29% (G:2.54% B:0.04%)
68.71% (G:3.05% B:0.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 8/3 6/3
[ 2] 13/5
[ 1] 9/4 6/3

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/3

To win from here we have to get a shot, hit the blot and then contain the hit checker.

Containing the hit checker is easier when we have a strong board so we should just play 8/3 6/3. XG may like some weird flexible play but making the 3 point has to be correct.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 132
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-AAb--C-b-bcdB-aa--:1:1:-1:51:3:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedXG Roller++7/1eq: +0.189
Player:
Opponent:		66.08% (G:3.33% B:0.04%)
33.92% (G:2.95% B:0.06%)
2.XG Roller++8/7 8/3eq: +0.172 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		65.49% (G:3.14% B:0.04%)
34.51% (G:3.06% B:0.06%)
3.XG Roller++6/1 2/1eq: +0.171 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		65.55% (G:2.85% B:0.03%)
34.45% (G:2.89% B:0.06%)
4.XG Roller++6/1 3/2eq: +0.167 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		65.35% (G:2.97% B:0.04%)
34.65% (G:3.04% B:0.06%)
5.XG Roller++7/2 3/2eq: +0.140 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		64.39% (G:2.95% B:0.04%)
35.61% (G:3.46% B:0.07%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/1.

Blots behind their anchor don’t really matter yet, so I play 7/1 to retain my spare on the 6 point.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 132
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBB-AAb--C-b-bbdB-aaa-:1:1:1:11:3:4:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-04-08

April 14, 2019 by 7 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-BAb--C-b-ccdB-a---:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.75% (G:2.86% B:0.07%) 71.02% (G:2.53% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.25% (G:2.30% B:0.09%) 28.98% (G:2.17% B:0.08%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.420 +0.862
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.639 (-0.026)±0.008 (+0.631..+0.647)
     Double/Take:+0.665±0.010 (+0.656..+0.675)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.335)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] Take
[ 1] Pass

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

A good double by Neil, but he must have been doubling us in, as there is no way this is a Pass.

We have contact against his 10 point and 15 point which means we will have a good chance of get a shot. We also have the start of a good board.

However, if we moved the checkers on his 15 point to his 8 and 7 point this would be a pass. Then if we moved the checkers on his 10 point back to his 11 point, even though our anchor is 6 pips away from his new point, it would still be a pass. If we went back to the original position but move the checkers on his 10 point to his 7 and 8 points, it would again be a pass. Putting all the above together, the most important part of the contact is the two checkers on Neil’s 15 point.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-BAb--C-b-ccdB-a---:1:1:-1:51:3:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedXG Roller++8/2eq: +0.228
Player:
Opponent:		67.74% (G:3.06% B:0.04%)
32.26% (G:2.55% B:0.05%)
2.XG Roller++8/7 6/1eq: +0.224 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		67.58% (G:3.22% B:0.04%)
32.42% (G:2.69% B:0.05%)
3.XG Roller++8/3 7/6eq: +0.222 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		67.58% (G:3.01% B:0.05%)
32.42% (G:2.64% B:0.05%)
4.XG Roller++7/1eq: +0.222 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		67.54% (G:3.17% B:0.04%)
32.46% (G:2.73% B:0.05%)
5.XG Roller++6/1 3/2eq: +0.221 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		67.51% (G:3.20% B:0.04%)
32.49% (G:2.79% B:0.06%)
6.XG Roller++7/2 3/2eq: +0.221 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		67.56% (G:2.89% B:0.04%)
32.44% (G:2.61% B:0.05%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2.

I want to retain spare checkers in the outfield but not play too awkwardly to my ace point yet, while I await a clearing double. This leads me to play 8/2.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-BAb--C-b-bcdB-aa--:1:1:1:53:3:4:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-04-07

April 13, 2019 by 5 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBB-BAb--D-b-ccdB-a---:0:0:1:52:3:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout113/11 8/3eq: -0.655
Player:
Opponent:		29.21% (G:2.31% B:0.10%)
70.79% (G:2.81% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.659...-0.651) - [99.9%]
Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes
2.Rollout19/7 8/3eq: -0.664 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		28.94% (G:2.29% B:0.10%)
71.06% (G:2.78% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.668...-0.660) - [0.1%]
Duration: 4 hours 54 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 9/7eq: -0.666 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		28.97% (G:2.22% B:0.08%)
71.03% (G:2.58% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.670...-0.662) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 00 minute
4.playedRollout113/6eq: -0.667 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		28.99% (G:2.21% B:0.08%)
71.01% (G:2.63% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.671...-0.664) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 36 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 13/6
[ 9] 9/7 8/3
[ 6] 13/11 8/3
[ 5] 13/8 9/7

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-BAb--C-b-ccdB-a---:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-04-06

April 13, 2019 by 10 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABCbBA--bD---ccd-Ba---:0:0:1:11:3:4:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout121/20(2) 6/4eq: -0.208
Player:
Opponent:		42.32% (G:7.10% B:0.25%)
57.68% (G:6.00% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.217...-0.199) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
2.Rollout121/20(2) 9/8 5/4eq: -0.233 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		41.56% (G:6.42% B:0.22%)
58.44% (G:5.65% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.242...-0.225) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
3.Rollout121/20(2) 9/8 6/5eq: -0.233 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		41.51% (G:6.52% B:0.22%)
58.49% (G:5.92% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.242...-0.225) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38012952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 21/20(2) 6/4
[17] 21/20(2) 9/8 6/5
[ 2] 21/20(2) 9/8 5/4

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/20(2) 6/4

We need to play 21/20(2) — this turns Neil’s spares on the 6, 7 and 8 points into ‘security staff’ (to quote Julius High). All those spares can do is sit there and do nothing.

If we are playing 9/8 6/5, how are we going to win? By entering into some sort of race? After the roll we will be behind 13 pips, so that does not sound like a great idea.

If we play 6/4 we have a threatening board. If Neil hits us with any roll other than 22 we will have a return shot at the hitting checker. And Neil has an inner board blot so we should be more bold. But even if we took a checker from Neil’s 6 point and covered the blot, we should still make the same move as it is consistent with our game plan.

So when behind in the race, seek contact.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBBbBA--bD---ccdB-a---:0:0:-1:33:3:4:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout118/15(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.620
Player:
Opponent:		69.79% (G:2.91% B:0.06%)
30.21% (G:2.44% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.611...+0.629) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.Rollout118/15(2) 7/4 6/3eq: +0.426 (-0.194)
Player:
Opponent:		64.23% (G:4.06% B:0.11%)
35.77% (G:5.45% B:0.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.418...+0.434) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
3.Rollout118/15(2) 7/1eq: +0.411 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:		63.84% (G:3.83% B:0.11%)
36.16% (G:5.71% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.403...+0.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
4.Rollout118/15(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.394 (-0.226)
Player:
Opponent:		63.45% (G:3.81% B:0.12%)
36.55% (G:5.80% B:0.18%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.385...+0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
5.Rollout113/10(2) 7/4 6/3eq: +0.261 (-0.359)
Player:
Opponent:		59.72% (G:6.58% B:0.12%)
40.28% (G:6.08% B:0.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.253...+0.270) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
6.Rollout113/7(2)eq: +0.243 (-0.377)
Player:
Opponent:		59.51% (G:6.07% B:0.11%)
40.49% (G:5.73% B:0.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.235...+0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
7.Rollout113/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.235 (-0.385)
Player:
Opponent:		58.93% (G:6.43% B:0.10%)
41.07% (G:6.73% B:0.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.226...+0.244) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
8.Rollout113/10(2) 7/1eq: +0.227 (-0.393)
Player:
Opponent:		58.59% (G:6.76% B:0.14%)
41.41% (G:6.84% B:0.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.218...+0.236) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
9.Rollout17/4(3) 6/3eq: +0.118 (-0.502)
Player:
Opponent:		55.12% (G:7.97% B:0.20%)
44.88% (G:8.95% B:0.26%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.109...+0.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/15(2) 13/10(2).

A fine roll when I have a race lead. I head towards home with 18/15(2) and 13/10(2).

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBB-BAb--D-b-ccdB-a---:0:0:1:52:3:4:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-04-05

April 11, 2019 by 7 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BDbBA--cD---cbe-A--A-:0:0:1:32:3:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/21 6/4eq: -0.232
Player:
Opponent:		42.40% (G:7.73% B:0.28%)
57.60% (G:7.44% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.241...-0.222) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/11eq: -0.272 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		41.45% (G:8.30% B:0.24%)
58.55% (G:9.10% B:0.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.282...-0.261) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 5/3eq: -0.344 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:		39.88% (G:6.85% B:0.18%)
60.12% (G:8.67% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.355...-0.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
4.Rollout113/8eq: -0.354 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:		40.37% (G:9.04% B:0.42%)
59.63% (G:13.59% B:0.59%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.364...-0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
5.Rollout19/4eq: -0.364 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:		40.43% (G:9.25% B:0.37%)
59.57% (G:14.78% B:0.57%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.374...-0.354) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38012952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[48] 24/21 6/4
[ 3] 9/4

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

After Neil rolled his 61, he now has 10 checkers in the zone, whereas last turn he only had nine checkers in the zone. When your opponent has 10 checkers in the zone, that is enough firepower to successfully conduct the blitz, so we should feel the need to grab the anchor 24/21.

After 24/21 the best available to has to be 6/4.


Neil Kazaross: 63 13/7 6/3

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABCbBA--bD---ccd-Ba---:0:0:1:11:3:4:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-04-04

April 10, 2019 by 8 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=------EbCA--dD---d-e-A--A-:0:0:1:31:3:4:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.127
Player:
Opponent:		45.55% (G:11.11% B:0.36%)
54.45% (G:12.11% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.137...-0.117) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: -0.161 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		44.49% (G:8.52% B:0.29%)
55.51% (G:8.21% B:0.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.171...-0.150) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 9/8eq: -0.161 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		44.66% (G:6.95% B:0.15%)
55.34% (G:6.67% B:0.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.169...-0.152) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
4.Rollout113/9eq: -0.185 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		44.56% (G:9.12% B:0.29%)
55.44% (G:12.22% B:0.44%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.196...-0.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38012952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 8/5 6/5
[13] 24/21 6/5
[ 3] 13/9
[ 1] 9/5
[ 1] 24/21 9/8

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 6/5

There are usually 2 reasons for making an advanced anchor:

  • We are about to be attacked, so an anchor is good.
  • We are ahead in the race and would like to have our checkers as far advanced as possible so we can just run with doubles.

Here, after the roll we will be behind in the race by 6 pips and we are not in much danger of being attacked, meaning neither of the 2 reasons above exist here.

We are behind in the race so we need to seek contact. The best thing we can do is improve our board for when that contact happens by making our 5 point with 8/5 6/5. If Neil hits us with any roll except 22, we will have lots of return shots and the stronger board.


Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BDbBA--cD---cbe-A--A-:0:0:1:32:3:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-04-03

April 9, 2019 by 10 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:43:3:4:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.090
Player:
Opponent:		46.70% (G:13.43% B:0.56%)
53.30% (G:16.04% B:1.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.095...-0.085) - [94.5%]
Duration: 15 hours 44 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 13/10eq: -0.096 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		46.84% (G:11.65% B:0.51%)
53.16% (G:15.06% B:0.73%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.101...-0.092) - [3.2%]
Duration: 15 hours 40 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 24/20eq: -0.097 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		47.08% (G:10.94% B:0.50%)
52.92% (G:15.09% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.102...-0.092) - [2.1%]
Duration: 15 hours 59 minutes
4.Rollout124/21 6/2* eq: -0.104 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		46.66% (G:11.51% B:0.48%)
53.34% (G:15.06% B:0.77%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.109...-0.099) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 hours 29 minutes
5.playedRollout224/21 13/9eq: -0.109 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		46.55% (G:12.45% B:0.56%)
53.45% (G:15.73% B:0.90%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.121...-0.097) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38012952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38012952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 24/21 13/9
[13] 24/21 24/20
[ 9] 24/20 13/10
[ 3] 24/21 6/2*
[ 2] 13/10 13/9
[ 1] 13/6

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10 13/9

I know that for money without Jacoby (as it is commonly played in New Zealand), the correct move is 24/21 24/20.

So what is different here. We are an even number of points away from winning the match, while Neil is an odd number of points away from winning the match. As we are also trailing, we should play the more aggressive 13/10 13/9. We want to turn the cube, win a Gammon and get to 4 away. If instead of being 8 away, we were 9 away, then we should just play 24/21 13/9.


Neil Kazaross: 65 24/18 23/18

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=------EbCA--dD---d-e-A--A-:0:0:1:31:3:4:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-04-02

April 7, 2019 by 14 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 85
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aEEBC---a----------bbbbbc-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 86.73% (G:8.76% B:0.01%) 86.82% (G:8.73% B:0.01%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 13.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 13.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.820 +1.639
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.794 (-0.206)±0.000 (+0.794..+0.795)
     Double/Take:+1.579 (+0.579)±0.002 (+1.577..+1.581)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38012952
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14.2 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] Double
[ 8] No Double

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

Now we leave a shot with 66, 55, 44, 33, 65, 64, 63, 54, 53 and 43. That’s 13 shots, or 36% of the time. If we get hit with 11 rolls or 31% of the time that’s 36% * 31% = 12% of the time. I cannot see us winning enough Gammons to justify playing on for the Gammon so we should double and collect a point.

Neil Kazaross passes.

The USBGF Members have handled the play on decisions very well this game. Each roll provides a new cube decision and now they must cash.

I must pass since while I may hit them, I can’t hit them often enough to win enough to take.

USBGF Members win one point, and now Neil leads 7-away/8-away.


Neil Kazaross: 51 24/23 13/8

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:43:3:4:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-04-01

April 7, 2019 by 8 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 85
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 54
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBCBCBC-a----------bbbbbc-:0:0:1:41:2:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/1eq: +1.062
Player:
Opponent:		97.05% (G:11.93% B:0.03%)
2.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.061...+1.063) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 4/3eq: +1.060 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		97.37% (G:10.66% B:0.03%)
2.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.059...+1.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout16/5 4/Offeq: +1.044 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		94.06% (G:15.80% B:0.06%)
5.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.043...+1.045) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 6/1
[20] 6/5 4/0
[ 4] 6/2 4/3
[ 1] 4/0 2/1

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1

We could play 4/Off 6/5 but then 66 and 55 leave a shot and most 6’s and 44 leave us odd ended. This is too risky for the small increase in Gammons.

So we have to play safe with either 6/2 4/3 or 6/1. With 6/2 4/3 we have two points with spares on them but with 6/1 we have three points with spares on top of them. Let’s play 6/1 for the increased flexibility but it will be close.


USBGF Members: 44 6/2(2) 5/1(2)
Neil Kazaross: 44 no play

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 85
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aEEBC---a----------bbbbbc-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-31

April 3, 2019 by 11 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 60
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aCCCCC-a----------bbbbbc-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 94.58% (G:10.81% B:0.05%) 94.86% (G:10.65% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 5.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 5.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.997 +2.004
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.038±0.001 (+1.037..+1.040)
     Double/Take:+1.971 (+0.933)±0.003 (+1.968..+1.974)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.038)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] No Double
[ 6] Double

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

We are up 24 pips before the roll. No roll leaves a shot. We have numbers that point on Neil. So nothing bad can happen to us but a lot of good things can. So for this roll we are again Too Good to Double.

Again, we are not committing to never redoubling, just for this turn and we will look at it again next turn.


USBGF Members: 42 5/1* 3/1

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 85
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 54
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBCBCBC-a----------bbbbbc-:0:0:1:41:2:4:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-30

April 2, 2019 by 9 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 91
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 69
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBCCCB-----------bbbbbc-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 91.36% (G:12.14% B:0.30%) 91.88% (G:11.81% B:0.31%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 8.64% (G:0.04% B:0.00%) 8.12% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.948 +1.916
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.017±0.002 (+1.014..+1.019)
     Double/Take:+1.873 (+0.856)±0.004 (+1.869..+1.877)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.017)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 20 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] No Double
[12] Double

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

We leave a shot with only 55 and 65 which is 3 rolls or 8.3% of rolls. If we leave a shot, Neil will hits us 31% of the time on the first roll. So roughly 1 roll out of 36 we will be hit. Playing on for the Gammon is easily a justifiable risk.

We should just play on as we are still Too Good to Double.


USBGF Members: 7/3 7/2
Neil Kazaross: 61 24/17

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 60
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aCCCCC-a----------bbbbbc-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-29

April 1, 2019 by 5 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBDCB-----------dbbabb-:0:0:1:61:2:4:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout15/4eq: +1.028
Player:
Opponent:		91.59% (G:12.79% B:0.31%)
8.41% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.026...+1.030) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout16/5eq: +1.007 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		89.85% (G:11.14% B:0.30%)
10.15% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.005...+1.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[45] 5/4
[ 5] 6/5

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 5/4

My gut instinct is 5/4. Some may want to play 6/5 as it guards against 55. That is true, but 6/5 makes 64 leave a shot, and as 64 occurs twice as often as 55, it is better to guard against 64 and avoid playing 6/5.

In one of his articles Bill Robertie warned against “phantom interior gaps” – not having a spare on your 4 or 3 points. He recommended putting at least one checker on your 3 and 4 points.

The other nice thing about 5/4 is that when we clear our 7 point, we will have a more diversified set of spares aimed at the 1 point when/if Neil rolls a single 6 and is forced to run. Then we will have more rolls to point on Neil’s remaining checker.


Neil Kazaross: 53 6/3 6/1

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 91
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 69
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBCCCB-----------bbbbbc-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-28

April 1, 2019 by 5 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBDCB-----------dbbabb-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 90.82% (G:12.13% B:0.32%) 91.33% (G:11.73% B:0.31%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 9.18% (G:0.05% B:0.00%) 8.67% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.937 +1.892
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.016±0.003 (+1.013..+1.019)
     Double/Take:+1.840 (+0.824)±0.005 (+1.835..+1.844)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.016)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 21 minutes 50 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] No Double
[14] Double

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

Our worst roll is 65, but even then Neil still has to roll a 6 and we could get a shot at the blot on his 3 point. This is such a remote possibility that we must still be Too Good to Double.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBDCB-----------dbbabb-:0:0:1:61:2:4:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-27

March 31, 2019 by 4 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 109
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 81
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBCBB--A-A----aadbaaba-:0:0:1:65:2:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.Rollout112/6 7/2eq: +1.014
Player:
Opponent:		81.85% (G:20.88% B:2.30%)
18.15% (G:2.84% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.013...+1.015) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 45 minutes
2.playedRollout112/6 10/5eq: +1.010 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		90.13% (G:12.38% B:0.34%)
9.87% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.009...+1.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 26 minutes
3.Rollout112/7 10/4eq: +1.002 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		88.64% (G:11.43% B:0.30%)
11.36% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.001...+1.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
4.Rollout110/4 7/2eq: +1.001 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		81.22% (G:20.82% B:2.35%)
18.78% (G:3.12% B:0.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.000...+1.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 12/6 10/5
[ 2] 12/7 10/4
[ 1] 12/6 7/2

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 12/7 10/5

If Neil’s board was more likely to crumble then we could try 12/7 10/4 killing 6’s but here his board is just more likely to improve, so scratch that.

If we are not playing 12/7 10/4 then the 6 should be played 12/6.

I then concluded that over the board I would play 10/5. However, 7/2 could be right with Neil having 3 inner board blots as it could lead to more Gammons, especially if Neil hits us with a 6 and we return hit in his inner board or at the checker remaining on his 1 point. After the hit if we close out Neil we could pick up around 10% more Gammons. Three blots is a lot but I will go with 10/5.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 109
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBDCB---------aadbaaba-:0:0:-1:64:2:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout18/4 7/1eq: -1.020
Player:
Opponent:		9.03% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
90.97% (G:12.07% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.022...-1.017) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 7/3eq: -1.034 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		8.44% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
91.56% (G:12.50% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.036...-1.032) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 51 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 7/1.

This looks routine, as I can make a 5 point board and kill 6’s.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBDCB-----------dbbabb-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-26

March 31, 2019 by 7 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 109
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 81
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBCBB--A-A----aadbaaba-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 89.85% (G:12.30% B:0.37%) 90.22% (G:11.92% B:0.34%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 10.15% (G:0.10% B:0.00%) 9.78% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.919 +1.853
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.013±0.002 (+1.012..+1.015)
     Double/Take:+1.794 (+0.781)±0.005 (+1.789..+1.800)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.013)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 22 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] No Double
[11] Double

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

What anti-jokers do we have here? I cannot see any. Even 55 which plays 12/2 7/2(2) still leaves us in a very good position. So, this has to still be Too Good to Double.

It is always good to ask ourselves ‘should we double’ every roll that we have access to the cube.

Personally I used to have a real problem with doubling when it was Too good. I used to play in a chouette where one of the players was a millionairess, and she would take anything, especially if she was behind in the score. So I would double late when it was a Pass or Too Good and get a Take 95% of the time. When I realised that I was starting to double too late in matches, I was able to correct that leak. I still doubled her late because it was the sub-optimal play that maximised profit.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 109
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 81
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBCBB--A-A----aadbaaba-:0:0:1:65:2:4:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-25

March 30, 2019 by 5 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBB--A-AA---bbdba-b--:0:0:1:53:2:4:0:11:10
to play 53

1.Rollout113/8 10/7eq: +1.008
Player:
Opponent:		88.81% (G:11.66% B:0.32%)
11.19% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.008...+1.009) - [89.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.Rollout112/7 10/7eq: +1.008 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		88.62% (G:11.53% B:0.31%)
11.38% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.008...+1.008) - [10.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 12/9eq: +1.005 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		88.59% (G:12.21% B:0.37%)
11.41% (G:0.24% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.005...+1.006) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
4.Rollout110/2eq: +1.004 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		87.55% (G:11.27% B:0.29%)
12.45% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.004...+1.005) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 05 seconds
5.Rollout113/10 12/7eq: +1.004 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		88.15% (G:11.92% B:0.34%)
11.85% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.004...+1.004) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 04 seconds
6.playedRollout113/5eq: +1.004 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		88.78% (G:12.52% B:0.39%)
11.22% (G:0.21% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.004...+1.004) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 00 second
7.Rollout112/9 10/5eq: +1.004 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		88.41% (G:12.25% B:0.37%)
11.59% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.003...+1.004) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 43 seconds
8.Rollout112/4eq: +1.003 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		88.14% (G:12.04% B:0.35%)
11.86% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.003...+1.004) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 13/5
[ 6] 13/8 12/9
[ 4] 12/7 10/7
[ 2] 12/9 10/5
[ 1] 13/10 12/7
[ 1] 12/4
[ 1] 10/2

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/5

Most plays are pretty good here. In a chouette this is not something I would argue about.

The best approach is to keep the 6 prime and put the checkers where we want them. As a general rule, we want to avoid putting a spare on the 6 point (here that does not apply) as we will just want to be clearing it soon anyway – if we had a 52 to play we should avoid 13/7 and go with maybe 13/8 10/8.

So I see nothing wrong with just 13/5. As long as we can handle large doubles next turn it looks ok.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 81
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBCBB--A-A----bbdba-b--:0:0:-1:65:2:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout18/3 7/1eq: -1.011
Player:
Opponent:		10.44% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
89.56% (G:12.66% B:0.45%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.013...-1.009) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout17/1 6/1eq: -1.019 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		9.58% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
90.42% (G:12.63% B:0.33%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.022...-1.017) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 7/1.

I want to try to close all my homeboard points and also to have no gaps. I may soon end up having to break my 6 point and want to be able to keep a 5 point board when that happens. Therefore, I want to make sure to make my 3 and 4 points. This leads me to slot.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 109
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 81
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBCBB--A-A----aadbaaba-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-24

March 28, 2019 by 7 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBB--A--A--Acbea--b--:0:0:1:31:2:4:0:11:10
to play 31

1.Rollout110/6eq: +1.019
Player:
Opponent:		89.70% (G:13.06% B:0.39%)
10.30% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.018...+1.020) - [96.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
2.playedRollout116/12eq: +1.018 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		89.55% (G:13.08% B:0.41%)
10.45% (G:0.21% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.017...+1.019) - [2.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
3.Rollout113/9eq: +1.018 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		89.46% (G:13.35% B:0.45%)
10.54% (G:0.28% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.017...+1.019) - [1.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
4.xgRollout116/15 13/10eq: +1.017 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		89.52% (G:12.81% B:0.38%)
10.48% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.016...+1.017) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
5.Rollout116/13 10/9eq: +1.016 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		89.30% (G:12.55% B:0.36%)
10.70% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.016...+1.017) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
6.Rollout113/12 10/7eq: +1.016 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		89.53% (G:12.57% B:0.36%)
10.47% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.015...+1.017) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
7.Rollout116/15 10/7eq: +1.015 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		89.26% (G:12.49% B:0.36%)
10.74% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.014...+1.016) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 16/12
[12] 10/6
[ 4] 13/9
[ 2] 16/13 10/9
[ 1] 13/12 10/7

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBB--A-AA---cbea--b--:0:0:-1:41:2:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/4 6/5eq: -1.005
Player:
Opponent:		11.17% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
88.83% (G:12.39% B:0.39%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.007...-1.004) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout17/3 6/5eq: -1.010 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		10.94% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
89.06% (G:12.69% B:0.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.011...-1.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout18/3eq: -1.014 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		10.77% (G:0.22% B:0.01%)
89.23% (G:13.21% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.016...-1.013) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 06 seconds
4.xgRollout18/7 8/4eq: -1.014 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		10.99% (G:0.25% B:0.01%)
89.01% (G:13.47% B:0.45%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.017...-1.012) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/5.

8/4 6/5 builds my points in order.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBB--A-AA---bbdba-b--:0:0:1:53:2:4:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-23

March 28, 2019 by 10 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 133
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 101
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBB--A-aA---cbe---bA-:0:0:1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout124/16eq: +1.028
Player:
Opponent:		88.89% (G:14.94% B:0.56%)
11.11% (G:0.28% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.026...+1.031) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 52 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 13/7eq: +1.019 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		85.10% (G:16.56% B:0.81%)
14.90% (G:0.75% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.015...+1.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout124/22 10/4eq: +1.005 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		83.50% (G:17.55% B:0.92%)
16.50% (G:1.41% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.002...+1.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 24/16
[ 8] 24/22 13/7
[ 2] 24/22 10/4

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/16

I vote for 24/16, as we want to avoid getting trapped behind a prime and right now we have some awkward doubles – 33, 44 and 55.

If Neil hits us, it simply does not matter.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 133
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBB--A-aA--Acbe---b--:0:0:-1:53:2:4:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout113/5eq: -1.014
Player:
Opponent:		11.18% (G:0.25% B:0.01%)
88.82% (G:13.52% B:0.45%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.015...-1.013) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 6/3eq: -1.017 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		11.05% (G:0.29% B:0.01%)
88.95% (G:14.15% B:0.49%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.018...-1.016) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
3.Rollout213/8 7/4eq: -1.024 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		10.60% (G:0.24% B:0.01%)
89.40% (G:14.12% B:0.44%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.026...-1.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/5.

Now I play 13/5, happy that no more checkers will be sent back to increase my chances to lose a gammon. Slotting the 3 point is probably just as good, but I’ll try to make sure that I end up with my 5 point for now.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBB--A--A--Acbea--b--:0:0:1:31:2:4:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-22

March 26, 2019 by 6 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBA---AbBa--c-e---bA-:0:0:1:61:2:4:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/7 11/10eq: +1.034
Player:
Opponent:		85.19% (G:19.73% B:1.19%)
14.81% (G:0.73% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.031...+1.038) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 7/6eq: +0.994 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		79.18% (G:20.49% B:1.41%)
20.82% (G:2.05% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.989...+0.998) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 17 seconds
3.Rollout111/4eq: +0.985 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		78.11% (G:22.27% B:1.51%)
21.89% (G:2.80% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.981...+0.988) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout124/18 7/6eq: +0.983 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:		82.58% (G:17.24% B:0.92%)
17.42% (G:1.65% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.980...+0.986) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[49] 13/7 11/10

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 101
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBB--A-bAa--c-e---bA-:0:0:-1:64:2:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout113/7 11/7eq: -1.063
Player:
Opponent:		14.09% (G:0.54% B:0.02%)
85.91% (G:23.17% B:1.62%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.067...-1.059) - [100.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -1.094 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		11.26% (G:0.38% B:0.02%)
88.74% (G:21.45% B:1.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.098...-1.090) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.Rollout111/1* eq: -1.096 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		12.89% (G:0.32% B:0.01%)
87.11% (G:25.95% B:1.97%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.101...-1.092) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 11/7.

I have 3 plays here and I don’t like any of them.

1) I can make a big ugly awkward stack on my 2 point. This leaves only two shots which is a major plus, but it allows them to stay back and wait for my next roll which will often blot. It also gives me no chance to contain them so they’ll just play on and wait. I have to reject this play.

2) 11/1* leaves 11 shots and knocks them out of their ambush spot in the corner, but they may enter elsewhere and still make my life difficult. This play also gives me almost no chance to contain them and threaten them with cracking at some point.

3) I make my bar point. This leaves 12 shots but at least gives me something that could turn into a threat to contain. Their 55 now breaks their prime. My outfield checkers are closer to home and this could help me save a gammon. It is very difficult to play when primed with almost no counter play, but I’ll make my bar and hope.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 133
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 101
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBB--A-aA---cbe---bA-:0:0:1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-21

March 25, 2019 by 7 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBA---AbBa--c-e---bA-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 83.81% (G:20.59% B:1.41%) 84.18% (G:20.67% B:1.47%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 16.19% (G:1.15% B:0.04%) 15.82% (G:1.38% B:0.08%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.879 +1.806
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.027±0.004 (+1.023..+1.031)
     Double/Take:+1.709 (+0.681)±0.009 (+1.700..+1.717)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.027)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92234830
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] No Double
[ 7] Double

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

I went through all our rolls and nothing, not even our worst 55 looks that bad. We are still Too Good to double.

I then started wondering how I could alter the position to get it to a state where we would double and Neil would pass. If Neil’s 2 point were instead his 5 point, it’s then double. But not his 4 point, which should still be Too Good to Double.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBA---AbBa--c-e---bA-:0:0:1:61:2:4:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-20

March 25, 2019 by 7 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBB---A-cC---d-e---aA-:0:0:1:32:2:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/11 10/7eq: +1.023
Player:
Opponent:		80.94% (G:25.86% B:1.95%)
19.06% (G:1.74% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.021...+1.026) - [83.1%]
Duration: 8 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout113/8eq: +1.022 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		80.33% (G:24.27% B:1.97%)
19.67% (G:1.72% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.020...+1.024) - [16.9%]
Duration: 7 hours 18 minutes
3.Rollout210/5eq: +1.014 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		78.80% (G:24.66% B:2.04%)
21.20% (G:2.03% B:0.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.009...+1.019) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
4.Rollout213/11 13/10eq: +1.012 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		79.87% (G:23.29% B:1.81%)
20.13% (G:2.12% B:0.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.008...+1.017) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
5.Rollout224/22 13/10eq: +1.009 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		81.93% (G:20.20% B:1.33%)
18.07% (G:1.64% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.004...+1.014) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
6.Rollout224/21 13/11eq: +1.007 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		82.20% (G:19.81% B:1.21%)
17.80% (G:1.89% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.003...+1.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
7.Rollout224/22 10/7eq: +1.004 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		81.09% (G:21.95% B:1.36%)
18.91% (G:2.09% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.000...+1.009) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
8.Rollout224/21 10/8eq: +1.002 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		81.32% (G:19.77% B:1.22%)
18.68% (G:2.08% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.998...+1.006) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 13/11 10/7
[12] 24/22 13/10
[ 7] 24/21 13/11
[ 7] 13/8
[ 2] 10/5
[ 1] 13/11 13/10

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 10/7

I looked at this and could not decide which I liked better from 13/8 or 13/11 10/7.

13/8 gives us three builders for the 7 point and means not all 6’s are good for Neil.

13/11 10/7 slots the 7 point and duplicates Neil’s 6’s to hit and cover. If we get hit, we should have lots of return shots.

In a chouette I would go with which ever the team wanted to play. Here if I have to make a choice, I would go with 13/11 10/7 trying to finish our opponent off as quickly as possible.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBA---AcB---d-e---aA-:0:0:-1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/11 8/2eq: -1.029
Player:
Opponent:		16.15% (G:1.13% B:0.04%)
83.85% (G:20.59% B:1.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.033...-1.024) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.Rollout18/6 8/2eq: -1.052 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		15.54% (G:0.97% B:0.03%)
84.46% (G:22.40% B:1.56%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.056...-1.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout18/2 6/4eq: -1.064 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		17.53% (G:0.96% B:0.04%)
82.47% (G:28.39% B:2.67%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.069...-1.058) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
4.Rollout113/5eq: -1.113 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:		18.71% (G:0.78% B:0.03%)
81.29% (G:37.60% B:4.57%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.121...-1.106) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
5.Rollout113/7 8/6eq: -1.135 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:		17.85% (G:0.64% B:0.02%)
82.15% (G:38.74% B:4.66%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.143...-1.127) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
6.Rollout113/7 6/4eq: -1.188 (-0.159)
Player:
Opponent:		19.11% (G:0.62% B:0.02%)
80.89% (G:45.52% B:6.72%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.196...-1.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
7.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: -1.275 (-0.247)
Player:
Opponent:		18.17% (G:0.56% B:0.02%)
81.83% (G:48.49% B:9.80%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-1.285...-1.266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
8.Rollout124/18* 18/16eq: -1.356 (-0.327)
Player:
Opponent:		16.67% (G:2.43% B:0.09%)
83.33% (G:57.51% B:2.95%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.363...-1.349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
9.Rollout124/18* 8/6eq: -1.435 (-0.407)
Player:
Opponent:		13.84% (G:1.69% B:0.08%)
86.16% (G:61.08% B:3.50%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.441...-1.429) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 8/2.

I certainly cannot hit, as I open myself up to many more gammons. I’d only have hit them with boxes. So I’ll cover with 8/2 and then I’ll risk two shots and play 13/11 to get some flexibility and hopefully make another point.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBBA---AbBa--c-e---bA-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-19

March 23, 2019 by 6 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBB---A-cC---d-e---aA-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 80.79% (G:29.23% B:2.84%) 81.25% (G:28.34% B:3.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 19.21% (G:1.17% B:0.05%) 18.75% (G:1.23% B:0.05%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.918 +1.901
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.045±0.006 (+1.038..+1.051)
     Double/Take:+1.773 (+0.728)±0.011 (+1.762..+1.784)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.045)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 5.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] No Double
[ 9] Double

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

Again we are Too Good to double here, we will win a lot of Gammons.

But we need to remember that “every roll is a cube decision” to quote Kit Woolsey.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBB---A-cC---d-e---aA-:0:0:1:32:2:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-18

March 23, 2019 by 8 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaBB-BBA-AA-cC---e-e----A-:0:0:1:53:2:4:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout19/4 7/4eq: +1.353
Player:
Opponent:		86.48% (G:52.64% B:1.40%)
13.52% (G:1.18% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.347...+1.358) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.Rollout19/1* eq: +1.306 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		81.48% (G:58.27% B:0.77%)
18.52% (G:3.52% B:0.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.301...+1.311) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[43] 9/4 7/4
[ 6] 9/1*

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/4 7/4

The dilemma of when to make your board stronger vs hitting a checker but not improving your board is a difficult one. If we move from 2 to 3 points, we only stop 5 more entering rolls but moving from 3 to 4 points blocks another 7 entering rolls and moving from 4 to 5 blocks another 9 entering rolls – that’s 25% of entering rolls. I tend to make the extra point if it is the 4th or 5th point.

So, here we can make the 5th entering roll so we should play 9/4 7/4.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaBBBBB---A-cC---e-e----A-:0:0:-1:61:2:4:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 8/2eq: -1.044
Player:
Opponent:		19.26% (G:1.26% B:0.05%)
80.74% (G:29.32% B:2.79%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.047...-1.041) - [94.4%]
Duration: 12 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/7eq: -1.047 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		19.20% (G:1.23% B:0.05%)
80.80% (G:30.07% B:2.88%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.049...-1.044) - [5.6%]
Duration: 12 hours 00 minute
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 8/2.

My 61 has stopped the blitz, but as I must blot I expect them to play on for the gammon. I’ll play 8/2, leaving the fewest shots and leaving a position where I can hopefully avoid leaving a direct shot next roll if missed.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bBBBBB---A-cC---d-e---aA-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-17

March 21, 2019 by 12 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=b-BB-BB-A-A-cD---e-e----A-:0:0:1:41:2:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout113/9 8/7eq: +1.397
Player:
Opponent:		84.80% (G:61.31% B:0.94%)
15.20% (G:2.30% B:0.11%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.392...+1.401) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 10/9eq: +1.348 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		83.42% (G:58.97% B:0.90%)
16.58% (G:2.55% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.342...+1.354) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 13/9 8/7
[ 7] 13/8
[ 1] 10/6 8/7
[ 1] 24/23 13/9


Neil Kazaross: 51 b/24

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaBB-BBA-AA-cC---e-e----A-:0:0:1:53:2:4:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-16

March 20, 2019 by 3 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=b-BB-BB---A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:32:2:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout113/11 13/10eq: +1.298
Player:
Opponent:		82.19% (G:54.16% B:1.07%)
17.81% (G:2.86% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.292...+1.304) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
2.playedRollout113/8eq: +1.276 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		81.47% (G:53.66% B:1.02%)
18.53% (G:2.92% B:0.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.270...+1.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 13/10eq: +1.273 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		81.89% (G:50.65% B:0.94%)
18.11% (G:2.83% B:0.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.267...+1.279) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 10/7eq: +1.268 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		81.21% (G:52.30% B:0.94%)
18.79% (G:3.16% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.261...+1.274) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 13/8
[ 6] 13/11 13/10
[ 3] 13/11 10/7
[ 2] 24/22 13/10
[ 1] 24/21 13/11

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 13/10

I would probably not argue between 13/8 and 13/11 13/10 in a chouette but here or for money I would play 13/11 13/10.

First I do not like 13/8, if we make this play 44 hits from the bar. It is only 1 roll, but why leave it when you do not need to? If there was more of a benefit from playing 13/8, we could make that play, but it only gives us two builders for the 4 point. If we moved a checker 13/9 then had rolled 32, then 13/8 would be the play, as then we would have had three builders for the 4 point and this is a clear benefit.

With 13/11 13/10, if Neil enters one checker on the 4 point then we will have a first 6 to hit and then a subsequent 6 to cover. We have also added 52 and 43 to hit loose if Neil enters one checker.

13/11 13/10 would be my two second play over the board.


Neil Kazaross: 63 no play

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=b-BB-BB-A-A-cD---e-e----A-:0:0:1:41:2:4:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-15

March 20, 2019 by 16 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aBABB-A-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout18/2* 4/2eq: +1.183
Player:
Opponent:		78.89% (G:47.23% B:0.98%)
21.11% (G:3.57% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.177...+1.190) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 10/4eq: +1.141 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		78.11% (G:36.27% B:1.16%)
21.89% (G:3.62% B:0.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.136...+1.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 8/2* 4/2
[ 2] 13/11 10/4

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2* 4/2

When blitzing, we do not want our opponent to anchor, here we can stop Neil anchoring by making another point and by putting a second checker on the bar. We should play 8/2* 4/2.


Neil Kazaross: 53 no play

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=b-BB-BB---A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:32:2:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-14

March 19, 2019 by 7 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aBABB-A-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 76.30% (G:36.08% B:1.07%) 76.46% (G:37.37% B:1.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 23.70% (G:4.08% B:0.23%) 23.54% (G:4.25% B:0.35%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.844 +1.800
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.085±0.007 (+1.078..+1.092)
     Double/Take:+1.669 (+0.584)±0.011 (+1.658..+1.680)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.085)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 12.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] No Double
[10] Double

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

To quote myself from the last comment: “If Neil does not enter or enters without hitting, we will be too Good to double.” Neil entered without hitting so we are too Good to double.

If we were playing live against a different opponent then I might double if I thought that there was a good chance that they would take.

It is useful to go through the rolls and decide how you would play them. With every 2 except 42 (8/4 13/11) we should hit. Our worst roll is 21 which should be played 8/7 4/2*.

We just have too many rolls here to let Neil off the hook.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aBABB-A-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-03-13

March 19, 2019 by 6 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---aAaD-C-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:33:2:4:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/5*(2) 6/3*(2) eq: +0.907
Player:
Opponent:		71.11% (G:33.36% B:0.99%)
28.89% (G:6.50% B:0.39%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.896...+0.917) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 8/5*(2) eq: +0.771 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:		67.17% (G:25.05% B:0.78%)
32.83% (G:6.58% B:0.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.762...+0.779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
3.Rollout110/4 6/3*(2) eq: +0.668 (-0.238)
Player:
Opponent:		64.79% (G:17.63% B:0.56%)
35.21% (G:6.08% B:0.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.659...+0.677) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
4.Rollout113/10 8/5*(2) 6/3* eq: +0.607 (-0.299)
Player:
Opponent:		63.19% (G:25.38% B:0.95%)
36.81% (G:9.98% B:0.65%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.598...+0.617) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
5.Rollout113/10 8/5* 6/3*(2) eq: +0.555 (-0.351)
Player:
Opponent:		62.18% (G:23.69% B:0.81%)
37.82% (G:9.92% B:0.57%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.547...+0.564) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/5*(2) 6/3*(2)
[ 5] 10/4 8/5*(2)
[ 1] 10/4 6/3*(2)
[ 1] 13/10 8/5* 6/3*(2)

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5*(2) 6/3*(2)

We have to hit 8/5*(2) then decide how to use the last two 3’s.

10/4 builds a good board but gives Neil the opportunity to anchor on our 3 point. For that reason, we would rather continue the attack. If Neil does not enter or enters without hitting we will be too Good to double. If Neil enter only one checker but hits, then it will be double / take. It is only if Neil enters both checkers and hits that we will not have a double.

Consider the fact that Neil has not extra inner board points, so getting hit back will not be bad.


Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aBABB-A-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #11, OLM
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