USBGF OLM 2018-12-12

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 188
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBaBb-C-B-A-dC---b-e-A-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.41% (G:34.92% B:0.74%) 63.35% (G:35.48% B:0.57%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.59% (G:7.67% B:0.35%) 36.65% (G:7.93% B:0.37%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.550 +1.123
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.735 (-0.064)±0.010 (+0.724..+0.745)
played Double/Take:+0.799±0.016 (+0.782..+0.815)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.201)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 55121427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] Double
[ 7] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We have the stronger board, with one of Neil’s checker’s on the bar. We are up in the race by 53 pips before the roll. We have threats and at least 9 market losers with no real anti-jokers so this has to be a double.

So ship it and let Neil decide.


Neil Kazaross takes.

A sound double and one I didn’t want to see, but with my high anchor in their 3 point board, I cannot pass it when they have two unanchored checkers back. This is a fine double for them with rather good diversification and threats. I will be most unhappy if they soon make a 4th point and I cannot enter quickly.



USBGF Members: 64 8/2* 6/2
Neil Kazaross: 52 b/20
USBGF Members: 54 13/9 10/5*
Neil Kazaross: 21 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 190
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBBbAB-AA--dB---b-e-A-A--:1:-1:1:16:0:0:0:11:10
to play 16

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sun 12/16 415p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-12-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 165
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaBb-C-B---dD---b-e-A-a-A:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout1Bar/23* 23/20eq: +0.484
Player:
Opponent:
58.23% (G:27.04% B:0.68%)
41.77% (G:9.37% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.471...+0.496) - [97.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/23* 13/10eq: +0.465 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
57.70% (G:27.66% B:0.71%)
42.30% (G:9.80% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.451...+0.479) - [2.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23* 21/18eq: +0.428 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
57.34% (G:26.17% B:0.71%)
42.66% (G:10.02% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.415...+0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42875827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] b/23* 13/10
[13] b/23*/20
[ 6] b/23 21/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23*/20

Obviously we need to hit Bar/23*.

Then we should consider 13/10 and 23/20.

13/10 gives Neil a good 6 from the bar, and that is something we would rather not do. He cannot enter with a 6 so his 6’s could be very awkward.

23/20 slots the 20 point, takes aim at any checkers that Neil has to play from his 13 point (that do not go to his 8 point). 23/20 is my quick move but I cannot see a better alternative so will go with that.



Neil Kazaross: 11 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 188
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aBaBb-C-B-A-dC---b-e-A-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-Ba-C-A---eE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout124/21 13/8eq: +0.038
Player:
Opponent:
49.07% (G:18.47% B:0.38%)
50.93% (G:11.44% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.029...+0.047) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: +0.009 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
47.80% (G:19.51% B:0.29%)
52.20% (G:10.84% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.000...+0.019) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85471217
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 24/21 13/8
[ 2] 13/10 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 13/8

First we play 13/8 then consider how to play the 3. If we play 13/10, Neil can hit and escape which we do not want to happen.

24/21 confronts now when we have the stronger board. Even if Neil points on us, we will have many return shots from the bar as we can attack Neil’s rearmost checker.

So 24/21 13/8 for me.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-Ba-C-B---eD-a-c-e-A--A-:0:0:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/4* eq: -0.347
Player:
Opponent:
43.55% (G:10.27% B:0.51%)
56.45% (G:25.27% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.358...-0.337) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 10/6eq: -0.395 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
42.48% (G:8.44% B:0.45%)
57.52% (G:22.75% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.404...-0.386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
3.Rollout18/4* 6/1* eq: -0.410 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
42.06% (G:11.47% B:0.42%)
57.94% (G:27.30% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.419...-0.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
4.Rollout121/16 10/6eq: -0.434 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
41.08% (G:5.83% B:0.27%)
58.92% (G:20.18% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.444...-0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42875827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/4*.

I have three plays to consider (hitting both is too loose and strips my 8) and don’t like any of them. 21/16 10/6 is ugly and leaves 15 shots, and if missed, I am still behind in the race and often likely to blot later. Stacking 13/8 10/6 may be a bit better, but is also ugly and certainly isn’t dynamic. Since I expect to play 13/8 anyhow, I might as well look at trying for more with 8/4*. This seems counterintuitive when outboarded, but if missed I am doing fine. I have a 6 to cover my 4 point and if hit, maybe I can anchor or at least enter and make my 10 point. Being behind in the game, I’ll risk mixing it up and hit, and hope they roll a missing 6.



USBGF Members: 11 b/21*
Neil Kazaross: 64 b/21 10/4*
USBGF Members: 32 b/23 24/21*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 173
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=aB-Bb-C-B---dD---c-e-A-A--:0:0:-1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.Rollout1Bar/23 13/7eq: -0.454
Player:
Opponent:
41.40% (G:10.04% B:0.42%)
58.60% (G:25.14% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.459...-0.449) - [54.4%]
Duration: 13 hours 06 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/23 8/2* eq: -0.455 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
40.79% (G:9.97% B:0.37%)
59.21% (G:22.42% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.459...-0.450) - [45.6%]
Duration: 13 hours 08 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42875827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 8/2*.

I have two plays to consider, noting that breaking anchor is unthinkable. 13/7 is hopeful and enterprising and puts this checker in a good spot, but unfortunately it isn’t likely to remain in that spot. After 13/7, that blot is hit with 5’s and 3’s and my blot on my 23 point can be hit with 6’s and 4’s. This just seems to be too much to me, so as much as it hurts my eyes I have to play 8/2*.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 165
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 140
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaBb-C-B---dD---b-e-A-a-A:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout18/3(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.282
Player:
Opponent:
53.18% (G:24.70% B:0.69%)
46.82% (G:11.06% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.272...+0.291) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
2.Rollout113/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.210 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
53.17% (G:21.75% B:0.69%)
46.83% (G:11.10% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.199...+0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout113/3 6/1*(2) eq: +0.103 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent:
50.18% (G:21.09% B:0.74%)
49.82% (G:12.58% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.091...+0.115) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
4.Rollout113/3 8/3 6/1* eq: +0.087 (-0.195)
Player:
Opponent:
50.29% (G:19.75% B:0.70%)
49.71% (G:12.60% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.075...+0.098) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
5.Rollout113/3(2)eq: -0.003 (-0.284)
Player:
Opponent:
49.20% (G:16.31% B:0.56%)
50.80% (G:13.21% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.014...+0.008) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42875827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/3(2) 6/1*(2)
[ 3] 13/3(2)
[ 2] 13/8(2) 6/1*(2)
[ 2] 13/3 8/3 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3(2) 6/1*(2)

A nice reply to Neil’s 63 split. The standard reply is 8/3(2) 6/1*(2) and that is my choice. If Neil fans we can double him out.



Neil Kazaross: 54 b/21 18/13


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-Ba-C-A---eE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-08

[Previous] [Next]


Neil Kazaross: 63 24/18 13/10

Today's vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-12-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 59
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBCBA-----------dcbbcA-:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout124/18 7/6eq: -0.773
Player:
Opponent:
11.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.67% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.774...-0.773) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout124/17eq: -0.789 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
10.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.46% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.789...-0.789) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout124/18 6/5eq: -0.799 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
10.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.93% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.799...-0.798) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout124/18 5/4eq: -0.799 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
10.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.94% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.799...-0.799) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 42 seconds
5.Rollout124/18 3/2eq: -0.811 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
9.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.57% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.811...-0.811) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 12 seconds
6.Rollout124/18 4/3eq: -0.813 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
9.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.67% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.813...-0.813) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 06 seconds
7.Rollout124/18 2/1eq: -0.817 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
9.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.85% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.817...-0.817) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 20 seconds
8.Rollout17/1 5/4eq: -0.847 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
7.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.35% (G:1.58% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.847...-0.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74059911
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 24/18 7/6 (coin flip!)
[14] 7/1 5/4
[ 1] 24/17


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 7/6

If we stay on the 24 point, we will have to play 7/1, then next turn we will be forced to run if we roll a 6.

Neil can play every single roll safely this turn. So we need to decide whether we win more by staying or running. If we run 24/18 then we should play 7/6 getting a crossover which gets the other checker into our board.

Notice that Neil has a gap on his 1 point and we need two long crossovers to get our checkers into our board. I think we will have a better chance to win by running now than waiting for a possible shot at least two turns down the track. Also if we wait we will probably have damaged our board making it hard to contain any hit checkers, so let’s go now.



Neil Kazaross: 31 3/0 2/1
USBGF Members: 11 18/14
Neil Kazaross: 43 4/0 3/0
USBGF Members: 42 14/8
Neil Kazaross: 54 5/0 4/0
USBGF Members: 11 8/6 1/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 22 6/4(2) 2/0(2)
USBGF Members: 41 4/0 2/1
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 54 5/0 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 62 6/0 4/2
USBGF Members: 21 2/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 62 5/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 51


Neil Kazaross wins two points and the match.

USBGF OLM 2018-12-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCCB---A-------edabcA-:1:-1:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout111/1 7/2 6/1eq: -0.680
Player:
Opponent:
16.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.00% (G:1.40% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.681...-0.680) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout111/1 7/2(2)eq: -0.687 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
15.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.33% (G:1.23% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.687...-0.686) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 11/1 7/2 6/1
[ 2] 11/1 7/2(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

We could bring all the checkers in with 11/1 7/2(2) but that is the racing play, and I think we have a better chance of winning by making a strong board with 11/1 7/2 6/1 and hoping we get a shot and hit. If Neil rolls 66 we get a double shot. If he rolls 55 or 65 we get a single shot.



Neil Kazaross: 52 6/4 5/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 59
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBCBA-----------dcbbcA-:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCBB---A-A-b---dd-bcA-:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/6eq: -0.634
Player:
Opponent:
17.28% (G:1.02% B:0.04%)
82.72% (G:3.55% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.635...-0.633) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 59 seconds
2.xgRollout111/4eq: -0.637 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
17.14% (G:1.03% B:0.04%)
82.86% (G:3.99% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.638...-0.636) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 17 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 11/10eq: -0.637 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
17.11% (G:1.03% B:0.05%)
82.89% (G:3.90% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.638...-0.636) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout113/7 5/4eq: -0.639 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
17.03% (G:1.00% B:0.03%)
82.97% (G:3.94% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.640...-0.638) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/6
[ 2] 24/17
[ 1] 24/18 13/12
[ 1] 13/7 5/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/6

If we run we risk being hit, and if missed we will be in a losing race so we have to stay.

Our next job is to cover the blot on our 2 point. Either 11/4 or 13/6 bring another builder into direct range to cover it. 13/6 has to be better than 11/4 as 13/6 gives us 4’s to cover and 11/4 gives us 2’s to cover.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCCB---A---b---dd-bcA-:1:-1:-1:64:7:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout110/6 10/4eq: +0.253
Player:
Opponent:
64.73% (G:4.21% B:0.09%)
35.27% (G:2.07% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.251...+0.255) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout110/4 6/2eq: +0.147 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
65.81% (G:3.26% B:0.11%)
34.19% (G:8.44% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.145...+0.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 10/4.

10/6 10/4 leaves only one blot and only 11 shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCCB---A-------edabcA-:1:-1:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 85
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB---A-A-b-b-dc-bb-A:1:-1:1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.Rollout1Bar/24 11/9eq: -0.685
Player:
Opponent:
15.23% (G:0.53% B:0.02%)
84.77% (G:4.23% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.686...-0.684) - [99.6%]
Duration: 44 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/11eq: -0.686 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
15.17% (G:0.51% B:0.02%)
84.83% (G:4.16% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.687...-0.685) - [0.3%]
Duration: 45 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24 5/3eq: -0.687 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
15.14% (G:0.53% B:0.02%)
84.86% (G:4.68% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.687...-0.686) - [0.1%]
Duration: 40 minutes 29 seconds
4.playedRollout1Bar/24 4/2eq: -0.687 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
15.03% (G:0.62% B:0.02%)
84.97% (G:4.95% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.688...-0.686) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] b/24 4/2
[10] b/24 11/9
[ 9] b/24 13/11


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 4/2

We should simply play 4/2 with the 2. We want to improve our board so that if we do get the lucky shot, we have a killer board. We could have an exchange of hits reasonably soon and we might not have covered the blot on our 2 point, but we will still have a 5 prime in place. I think the benefits of improving our board strength are the most important factor here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 85
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCBB---A-A-b-b-dc-bbA-:1:-1:-1:63:7:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout18/5 8/2eq: +0.610
Player:
Opponent:
81.48% (G:3.58% B:0.08%)
18.52% (G:1.00% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.608...+0.612) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/3eq: +0.508 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
77.35% (G:4.95% B:0.09%)
22.65% (G:1.96% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.505...+0.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout18/2 5/2eq: +0.447 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent:
74.33% (G:3.96% B:0.21%)
25.67% (G:2.00% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.444...+0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 29 seconds
4.Rollout110/4 6/3eq: +0.180 (-0.430)
Player:
Opponent:
68.37% (G:5.89% B:0.31%)
31.63% (G:9.38% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.177...+0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 49 seconds
5.Rollout110/4 5/2eq: +0.151 (-0.458)
Player:
Opponent:
67.08% (G:4.93% B:0.32%)
32.92% (G:9.51% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.149...+0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds
6.Rollout110/1* eq: +0.149 (-0.461)
Player:
Opponent:
65.04% (G:9.59% B:0.18%)
34.96% (G:7.61% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.146...+0.151) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 00 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 8/2.

8/5 8/2 leaves no blots and leaves me quite a few rolls to make a needed new point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 105
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABBCBB---A-A-b---dd-bcA-:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB-----Bcb-c-bbAc---:1:-1:1:52:7:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout17/2 4/2eq: -0.179
Player:
Opponent:
39.71% (G:1.35% B:0.02%)
60.29% (G:2.01% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.181...-0.176) - [99.8%]
Duration: 11 minutes 44 seconds
2.playedRollout121/16 13/11eq: -0.184 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
39.45% (G:1.34% B:0.06%)
60.55% (G:2.07% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.187...-0.182) - [0.1%]
Duration: 13 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 4/2eq: -0.185 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
39.50% (G:1.26% B:0.05%)
60.50% (G:1.94% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.187...-0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 07 seconds
4.Rollout113/6eq: -0.185 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
39.42% (G:1.31% B:0.00%)
60.58% (G:1.66% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.188...-0.183) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 30 seconds
5.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.187 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
39.26% (G:1.41% B:0.02%)
60.74% (G:1.88% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.189...-0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 39 seconds
6.Rollout121/16 4/2eq: -0.192 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
38.98% (G:1.44% B:0.19%)
61.02% (G:2.39% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.194...-0.189) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[10] 21/16 13/11
[ 8] 7/2 4/2
[ 7] 13/6
[ 2] 13/11 13/8
[ 1] 13/8 4/2
[ 1] 21/16 4/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/2 4/2

My first thought was that we will be ahead in the race by 9 pips after the roll so let’s run. But then I starting thinking that if we play 21/16 13/11, Neil hits us with 1’s and 2’s (small numbers) while his big numbers (that do not contain 1’s or 2’s) are better than normal for racing.

Also we have fewer return shots if we run than when we stay and Neil hits us loose.

It is hard to stay on the point that your opponent wants, but here the alternative 7/2 4/2 gives us a 5 point board, so I will go with that but could be very wrong.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB---A-AcbAc-bb-c---:1:-1:-1:52:7:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout111/6 11/9* eq: +0.398
Player:
Opponent:
73.12% (G:3.61% B:0.19%)
26.88% (G:3.24% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.395...+0.400) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout111/9* 8/3eq: +0.299 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
68.10% (G:3.53% B:0.13%)
31.90% (G:3.16% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.296...+0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout111/9* 10/5eq: +0.265 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
67.69% (G:3.72% B:0.22%)
32.31% (G:4.41% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.263...+0.268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/9* 11/6.

I must hit as I trail in the race and will be an underdog if I don’t hit. 11/9* leaves only a 17-1 joker. After hitting, the only sensible 5 is 11/6 leaving me in great shape if they don’t throw their joker. The seemingly safer 8/3 leaves my position so awkward that it might end up costing me as many gammon losses as leaving the 2nd blot.



USBGF Members: 53 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 101
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB---A-Aabac-cb-c--A:1:-1:-1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/2 3/2eq: +0.584
Player:
Opponent:
81.09% (G:6.08% B:0.15%)
18.91% (G:1.90% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.581...+0.587) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 9/8eq: +0.551 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
78.46% (G:3.69% B:0.22%)
21.54% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.548...+0.553) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout111/5 10/9eq: +0.507 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
76.86% (G:3.71% B:0.12%)
23.14% (G:1.49% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.505...+0.510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2 3/2.

If this weren’t a gammon save score, I’d make the 2 point instantly to put that dilly on my 3 point to work. Here I needed to look at the safe 11/5 9/8. This still leaves 4 builders for my critical 4 point, but I remain with only a 3 point board and quite a few rolls play rather awkwardly next turn.

So if I leave the 17-1 shot again, how many more extra gammon losses will it cost me? I’m now not likely to lose a gammon unless the 2nd blot gets picked up as well and then both get closed out. If hit, I am 55.5% to enter and 4 of those rolls return hit. My other entries hide my 2nd blot. At most getting hit with a 54 will cost me 2% for gammon losses. Note that I have a 4 point board now which will help me stave off a blitz anytime I can hit from the bar.

Since I think that making my 2 point will add more than 2% to my winning chances, I am taking that risk.



USBGF Members: 63 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 94
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB---A-Aabab-cb-bb-A:1:-1:-1:63:7:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout111/5 9/6eq: +0.735
Player:
Opponent:
87.19% (G:7.09% B:0.18%)
12.81% (G:0.42% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.733...+0.738) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout111/8 9/3eq: +0.699 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
85.43% (G:6.10% B:0.14%)
14.57% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.696...+0.701) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51520148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/5 9/6.

Now with my big racing lead and smooth position, I am a big favorite, so I am not leaving any unnecessary shots. 11/5 9/6 looks good and retains 4 builders for my 4 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 85
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 108
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB---A-A-b-b-dc-bb-A:1:-1:1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCCB----bBba-c-bb-c-A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/21 6/4eq: -0.108
Player:
Opponent:
41.94% (G:2.64% B:0.04%)
58.06% (G:2.59% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.111...-0.105) - [96.7%]
Duration: 18 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 7/5eq: -0.112 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
41.89% (G:2.49% B:0.05%)
58.11% (G:2.70% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.115...-0.110) - [1.8%]
Duration: 16 minutes 32 seconds
3.Rollout124/21 5/3eq: -0.113 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
41.78% (G:2.58% B:0.11%)
58.22% (G:2.54% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.116...-0.110) - [1.4%]
Duration: 16 minutes 26 seconds
4.Rollout124/21 4/2eq: -0.130 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
41.02% (G:2.46% B:0.04%)
58.98% (G:3.32% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.133...-0.128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout124/21 3/1eq: -0.137 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
40.66% (G:2.46% B:0.09%)
59.34% (G:3.51% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.140...-0.135) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 57 seconds
6.Rollout17/2eq: -0.201 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
36.42% (G:3.53% B:0.10%)
63.58% (G:3.28% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.204...-0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 28 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 24/21 6/4
[ 4] 24/21 5/3
[ 4] 6/4 5/2
[ 1] 7/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 6/4

We would like to win this game and also gammon Neil. If we cannot gammon Neil, we need to at least win the game. Neil has 4 builders aimed at his 7 point, and if he makes it, then it will be harder to escape, so let’s step up with 24/21. We would welcome a blot hitting contest with our side having a stronger board and a 5 prime in place.

24/21 is good for just escaping and winning the race.

We should play 6/4 with the two as we cannot move the two from the 24 point so 6/4 diversifies the two.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB----bBba-c-bbAc---:1:-1:-1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout113/11 13/10eq: +0.058
Player:
Opponent:
54.00% (G:1.60% B:0.05%)
46.00% (G:1.10% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.056...+0.060) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout110/5eq: -0.089 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
47.26% (G:1.42% B:0.04%)
52.74% (G:1.71% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.091...-0.087) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 13/10.

The themes for me remain the same. Try to contain their straggler and leave few if any shots. Therefore, I play 13/11 13/10.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCBB-----Bcb-c-bbAc---:1:-1:1:52:7:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCB---AbBbb-d-b--c--A:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 11/5eq: +0.042
Player:
Opponent:
46.16% (G:5.96% B:0.06%)
53.84% (G:2.65% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.039...+0.046) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 7/1eq: +0.008 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
44.68% (G:5.71% B:0.09%)
55.32% (G:3.28% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.004...+0.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.001 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
43.72% (G:6.23% B:0.17%)
56.28% (G:2.48% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.004...+0.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/24 11/5
[14] b/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 11/5

After the roll we will be ahead by 10 pips. After we enter on the 24 point we should play safe with 11/5 rather than 24/18 which comes out to 4 builders aimed at us.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCCB----bBbb-d-b--c-A-:1:-1:-1:53:7:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout110/5 8/5eq: -0.007
Player:
Opponent:
55.82% (G:2.97% B:0.16%)
44.18% (G:6.19% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.010...-0.004) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.031 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
51.20% (G:1.25% B:0.03%)
48.80% (G:2.73% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.033...-0.028) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 01 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5 8/5.

This is a hard choice since losing a gammon means losing the match! Therefore, making my 5 point isn’t automatic. But if I don’t make it, then I am not sure that I am even a game favorite, as I am down 2 pips and they are on roll and my containment chances are then shaky. Also plays that don’t make my 5 point leave me somewhat awkward and I could still roll something to blot and then maybe lose a gammon.

However, 3 shots may be too many. I think I get gammoned about half the time when I am hit or about 4% extra overall. At a gammon go score like this, my gammon cost is 1 as the added cost of losing a gammon is the same equity as the difference between winning and losing the game. So do I think that making my 5 point adds as much or more than 4% to my winning chances vs wimping? I think it probably does since I should be a definite favorite after making that point, as now I have real chances to contain their straggler.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCCB----bBba-c-bb-c-A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 11/22 800a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-11-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC--A-AbCbb-d-c-Ab---:1:-1:1:62:7:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 9/7eq: -0.100
Player:
Opponent:
41.67% (G:3.32% B:0.08%)
58.33% (G:3.01% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.102...-0.099) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.106 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
41.41% (G:3.29% B:0.10%)
58.59% (G:3.18% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.107...-0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout111/5 9/7eq: -0.108 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
41.36% (G:3.25% B:0.07%)
58.64% (G:3.08% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.109...-0.106) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/7 9/7
[ 5] 13/5
[ 2] 11/5 9/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 9/7

As we cannot escape, I think we should just make our 7 point with 13/7 9/7. Then we will have a 5 prime in place to contain any blot we hit.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 114
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCB---AbBbb-d-c-Ab---:1:-1:-1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout16/4* 4/3eq: -0.012
Player:
Opponent:
54.04% (G:2.59% B:0.11%)
45.96% (G:4.62% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.015...-0.008) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout16/3eq: -0.191 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:
43.98% (G:1.69% B:0.06%)
56.02% (G:3.54% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.194...-0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 09 seconds
3.Rollout18/6 3/2eq: -0.256 (-0.245)
Player:
Opponent:
40.07% (G:1.26% B:0.02%)
59.93% (G:2.88% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.259...-0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout111/10 8/6eq: -0.294 (-0.283)
Player:
Opponent:
45.82% (G:2.78% B:0.26%)
54.18% (G:10.54% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.298...-0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4*/3.

This is all about gaining pips and not leaving shots. 6/4*/3, while somewhat awkward, caters to both of my priorities.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCB---AbBbb-d-b--c--A:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC----BdCb--d-e----A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout113/8eq: +0.257
Player:
Opponent:
54.55% (G:8.30% B:0.17%)
45.45% (G:2.38% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.255...+0.259) - [86.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 41 minutes
2.xgRollout113/10 11/9eq: +0.256 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
54.49% (G:8.30% B:0.20%)
45.51% (G:2.33% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.254...+0.257) - [13.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
3.Rollout111/6eq: +0.254 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
54.49% (G:8.23% B:0.15%)
45.51% (G:2.31% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.253...+0.256) - [0.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
4.Rollout111/9 11/8eq: +0.252 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
54.34% (G:8.24% B:0.23%)
45.66% (G:2.40% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.250...+0.253) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes
5.Rollout213/10 6/4eq: +0.251 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
54.46% (G:8.08% B:0.25%)
45.54% (G:2.34% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.247...+0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 50 seconds
6.Rollout111/8 6/4eq: +0.250 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
54.28% (G:8.25% B:0.18%)
45.72% (G:2.43% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.249...+0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
7.Rollout213/11 6/3eq: +0.242 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
54.33% (G:7.77% B:0.10%)
45.67% (G:2.07% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.238...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 43 seconds
8.Rollout211/9 6/3eq: +0.240 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
54.01% (G:8.00% B:0.14%)
45.99% (G:2.37% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.237...+0.244) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 24 seconds
9.Rollout213/10 5/3eq: +0.214 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
53.24% (G:7.44% B:0.27%)
46.76% (G:2.89% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.210...+0.217) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 21 seconds
10.Rollout26/1eq: +0.207 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
52.89% (G:7.47% B:0.19%)
47.11% (G:3.26% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.204...+0.211) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 24 seconds
11.Rollout211/8 5/3eq: +0.203 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
52.63% (G:7.54% B:0.24%)
47.37% (G:3.14% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.200...+0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 15 seconds
12.Rollout211/9 5/2eq: +0.202 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
52.72% (G:7.39% B:0.09%)
47.28% (G:3.24% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.198...+0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 06 seconds
13.Rollout213/11 5/2eq: +0.202 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
52.69% (G:7.39% B:0.19%)
47.31% (G:3.10% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.198...+0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 58 seconds
14.Rollout211/8 4/2eq: +0.198 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
52.59% (G:7.29% B:0.12%)
47.41% (G:3.24% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.194...+0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 00 second
15.Rollout213/10 4/2eq: +0.196 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
52.27% (G:7.51% B:0.18%)
47.73% (G:3.25% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.192...+0.200) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 51 seconds
16.playedRollout224/21 11/9eq: +0.192 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
57.71% (G:1.86% B:0.04%)
42.29% (G:1.48% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.189...+0.194) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 22 seconds
17.Rollout25/2 4/2eq: +0.188 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
52.06% (G:7.35% B:0.12%)
47.94% (G:3.27% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.184...+0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 35 seconds
18.Rollout224/22 13/10eq: +0.187 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
56.03% (G:3.33% B:0.07%)
43.97% (G:1.72% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.184...+0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 28 seconds
19.Rollout224/22 11/8eq: +0.185 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
56.01% (G:3.26% B:0.08%)
43.99% (G:1.47% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.182...+0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 24/21 11/9
[7] 13/10 11/9
[6] 13/8
[2] 24/22 13/10
[1] 24/22 11/8
[1] 11/9 11/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10 11/9

We have to leave our checker on the 24 point alone so Neil has some awkward rolls.

Let’s diversify our checkers by playing 13/10 11/9, giving us more chances of making our 8 or 7 points.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC--A-AdCb--d-e-A----:1:-1:-1:33:7:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.051
Player:
Opponent:
55.48% (G:2.74% B:0.09%)
44.52% (G:2.91% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.050...+0.053) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes
2.xgRollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.046 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
54.65% (G:2.80% B:0.08%)
45.35% (G:2.38% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.044...+0.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout28/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: -0.025 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
50.27% (G:2.08% B:0.05%)
49.73% (G:1.51% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.027...-0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 23 seconds
4.Rollout213/10(4)eq: -0.058 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
48.77% (G:1.24% B:0.04%)
51.23% (G:1.69% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.065...-0.051) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 15 seconds
5.Rollout213/7(2)eq: -0.088 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:
47.57% (G:1.48% B:0.08%)
52.43% (G:1.95% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.090...-0.085) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 12 seconds
6.Rollout211/5(2)eq: -0.106 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:
45.72% (G:0.95% B:0.05%)
54.28% (G:1.04% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.108...-0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 01 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10(2) 6/3(2).

A very nice roll for me. 13/10(2) is automatic to block their 6’s and to apply pressure to their blot which may soon get pointed on. Now it seems automatic to make my 5 point with the remaining 3’s, but then I look at the position and see 5 stripped points and an awkward stack on my 6 point. I also see that my 11 point is now doing very little because my 5 pt has been made. So then I return those two checkers to the 8 point and look at making my 3 point. This seems to be considerably more flexible and also to have more potential to build a good 4 point board quickly.

What’s not to like about making my 3 point after 13/10(2)? Well, I don’t have my 5 point! But I can often make it soon, and my 11 point now functions as useful builders.

I prefer the more flexible 13/10(2) 6/3(2).


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC--A-AbCbb-d-c-Ab---:1:-1:1:26:7:9:0:11:10
to play 26

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBB-Ba-BeC--Ad-e----A-:1:-1:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout113/3 8/3(2)eq: +0.562
Player:
Opponent:
59.67% (G:18.45% B:0.60%)
40.33% (G:4.31% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.558...+0.567) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 06 seconds
2.playedRollout116/6 8/3(2)eq: +0.548 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
62.13% (G:15.27% B:0.43%)
37.87% (G:2.70% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.544...+0.552) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout116/11 13/3 8/3eq: +0.538 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
61.54% (G:15.35% B:0.54%)
38.46% (G:2.24% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.533...+0.542) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout111/6(2) 8/3(2)eq: +0.533 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
58.68% (G:17.95% B:0.30%)
41.32% (G:4.14% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.528...+0.537) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 03 seconds
5.Rollout116/6 13/3eq: +0.494 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
60.51% (G:14.21% B:0.36%)
39.49% (G:2.77% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.490...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90064475
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 16/6 8/3(2)
[10] 16/11 13/3 8/3
[ 4] 16/6 13/3
[ 2] 13/3 8/3(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/3 8/3(2)

If this were a unlimited game or a normal match score then after playing 8/3(2), we should just play 16/6. But at 4 away 2 away with the cube owned by Neil, we have to consider 13/3. 13/3 must increase our Gammons won. Does it increase our Gammons lost? We do not care if it does, Gammons lost are irrelevant, if we lose the game we lose the match so Gammons lost do not count.

I would not have thought that there would be much in it, but we want to get as much equity as possible, so let’s play 13/3 with the final two 5’s as it must increase the Gammons won.



Neil Kazaross: 52 16/11 13/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC----BdCb--d-e----A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-C-C--BdC--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.18% (G:18.01% B:1.02%) 55.35% (G:18.67% B:1.33%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.82% (G:13.88% B:1.67%) 44.65% (G:14.93% B:2.11%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.047 +0.717
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.646 (-0.071)±0.013 (+0.633..+0.659)
played Double/Take:+0.717±0.014 (+0.703..+0.731)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.283)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24002543
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Double
[12] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

I refer to 4 away 2 away as Super Gammon Go, and conversely 2 away 4 away as Super Gammon Save.

At Super Gammon Go, we are looking for Blitzing or Priming positions with high volatility. When we find one of those positions at Super Gammon Go, we should double.

Here we have priming and blitzing potential. It is easier to blitz when your opponent has only one checker back as they cannot anchor. We lose our market and hit in the outfield with 44, 22, 53 and 62. We also lose our market with 66, 55 and probably 33. This is more than enough to double at this score.

Neil Kazaross takes.

A fine score-based cube but one I cannot even dream to pass. The doubling window is very wide at this score where there are some gammons floating around. Note that by doubling me, they render the extra cost of gammons they may lose as meaningless.

Neil’s Rule of 80 is for this exact score. If the number of total wins the trailer can achieve plus their gammon wins is over 80% then the leader should pass. In this position there’s no way that I can expect to lose 60% of the games nor can I expect to lose 20% gammons. Therefore, I have a trivial take.

When should the trailer cube in the early game at 4-away, 2-away? A good rule of thumb is that they usually want to cube when there’s reasonable gammon chances and the total is 70% or more.

Note that the total at the start of the game is 64%. 50% wins plus 14% gammons and they clearly are favorites here with some market losers.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 65 24/13
USBGF Members: 53 24/16*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---BBB-B--BeC--Ad-e----A-:1:-1:-1:63:7:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.826
Player:
Opponent:
35.25% (G:7.64% B:0.82%)
64.75% (G:26.55% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.832...-0.820) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.840 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
32.79% (G:8.76% B:1.13%)
67.21% (G:24.77% B:1.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.845...-0.834) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90064475
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16.

Not a nice 6 for me, but I don’t want to leave a second blot vulnerable so out I come with B/16. 11 rolls miss and maybe I can survive. If hit I hope to enter and just play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBB-Ba-BeC--Ad-e----A-:1:-1:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:22:7:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.497
Player:
Opponent:
53.20% (G:14.76% B:0.91%)
46.80% (G:13.65% B:1.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.485...+0.509) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/4(2)eq: +0.381 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
50.55% (G:14.18% B:0.92%)
49.45% (G:15.50% B:2.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.366...+0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout124/22(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.352 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:
51.12% (G:12.30% B:0.97%)
48.88% (G:11.87% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.339...+0.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 8/4 6/4eq: +0.305 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
48.71% (G:13.67% B:0.90%)
51.29% (G:16.46% B:2.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.291...+0.319) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
5.Rollout124/22(2) 13/11(2)eq: +0.284 (-0.213)
Player:
Opponent:
50.33% (G:11.66% B:0.64%)
49.67% (G:12.55% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.271...+0.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
6.Rollout124/20 6/4(2)eq: +0.281 (-0.216)
Player:
Opponent:
50.39% (G:11.92% B:1.15%)
49.61% (G:14.74% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.268...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24002543
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 13/11(2) 6/4(2)
[ 1] 24/22(2) 13/11(2)
[ 1] 24/22(2) 6/4(2)
[ 1] 24/20(2)
[ 1] 13/5*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11(2) 6/4(2)

The normal reply to 54 split with a 22 is 13/11(2) 6/4(2). This wins the most games and the most gammons.

At 4 away 2 away this move becomes even more correct.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-C--BdC---d-e----B-:0:0:-1:65:7:9:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 20/9.

My blot on the 20 point is now in mortal danger so I will move it to the 9 point, hopefully out of harm’s way and where it is a builder.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-C-C--BdC--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BEA--C------------edaab--:1:-1:1:53:5:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout16/1 3/Offeq: +0.928
Player:
Opponent:
96.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.928...+0.928) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9.3 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: +0.923 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
96.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.923...+0.923) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.9 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 6/1 3/0
[ 1] 6/3 6/1



Neil Kazaross: 63 6/0 3/0
USBGF Members: 22 2/0(4)
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 62 6/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 55 6/1 5/0(3)
USBGF Members: 52 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 32


USBGF Members win two points, and Neil Kazaross leads 2-away/4-away.



Neil Kazaross: 54 24/20 13/8

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:22:7:9:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 40
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AFA--D------------fcbab--:1:-1:1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/1 2/Offeq: +0.881
Player:
Opponent:
94.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.881...+0.881) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59.8 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/1eq: +0.868 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
93.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
6.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.868...+0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.3 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 6/1 2/0
[ 1] 6/4 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1 2/0

I like the saying ‘if in doubt, rip them off’. I have no doubt here, so we should just play 2/off.

To win this game we need to take all our checkers off before Neil does, and we have just rolled a number that lets us take a checker off, so take a checker off.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BEA--C------------fcbab--:1:-1:-1:41:5:9:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/5 4/Offeq: -0.939
Player:
Opponent:
3.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.939...-0.939) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30.0 seconds
2.Rollout14/Off 2/1eq: -0.939 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.939...-0.939) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26.5 seconds
3.Rollout15/Offeq: -0.941 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.941...-0.941) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.3 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 4/0.

I’ll take a checker off, and then the ace hardly matters, but I cannot win this game without 55 or 66 or both, so I’ll play 6/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BEA--C------------edaab--:1:-1:1:53:5:9:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CAB-H---a--------ecbaba-:1:-1:1:44:5:9:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout16/2(2) 4/Off(2)eq: +0.758
Player:
Opponent:
87.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.758...+0.758) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13.9 seconds
2.Rollout16/2(3) 4/Offeq: +0.752 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
87.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.752...+0.752) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.0 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 6/2(2) 4/0(2)
[ 3] 6/2(3) 4/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/2(2) 4/0(2)

We need to play 4/off(2) 6/2(2). We should just take off the maximum number of checkers unless there is a really good reason not to.

Now any 5 or 4 will not take a checker off and cause wastage by moving to the 1 or 2 points – until we clear our 6 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 49
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--EA--F---a--------ecbaba-:1:-1:-1:31:5:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout115/12 6/5eq: -0.865
Player:
Opponent:
6.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.865...-0.865) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6.3 seconds
2.playedRollout115/11eq: -0.865 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
6.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.865...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3.1 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/11.

I’m far behind in pips and fully in desperation mode. 15/11 lets me take off 3 checkers with 55 and doesn’t seem worse if I roll the needed boxes. It does play a bit worse if I roll 44 but I need to cater to huge rolls.



USBGF Members: 54 6/2 6/1
Neil Kazaross: 51 11/6 1/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 40
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AFA--D------------fcbab--:1:-1:1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 82
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--D-B-I---a----a-a-ccbaba-:1:-1:1:32:5:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout16/3 2/Offeq: +0.517
Player:
Opponent:
75.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.517...+0.517) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: +0.492 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
74.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.492...+0.492) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 6/3 2/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 82
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CAB-H---a----a-a-ccbaba-:1:-1:-1:42:5:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout115/11 8/6eq: -0.609
Player:
Opponent:
19.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.609...-0.609) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
2.playedRollout110/6 8/6eq: -0.610 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
19.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.610...-0.610) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds
3.Rollout115/9eq: -0.615 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
19.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.615...-0.615) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 8/6.

This looks to hardly matter like many racing plays. The key is to not make clear errors.

I’ll put both checkers into my board and then I can decide whether to play one off the 6 point with a 1 or 2 next roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CAB-H---a--------ecbaba-:1:-1:1:44:5:9:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-H-B-a-a--a--acbbaba-:1:-1:1:62:5:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout18/2 6/4eq: +0.570
Player:
Opponent:
78.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
21.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.570...+0.570) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds
2.playedRollout18/6 8/2eq: +0.534 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
76.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.534...+0.534) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 8/6 8/2
[12] 8/2 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2 6/4

Putting a 9th checker on the 6 point just seems too rich for me. As it is, any 5 we roll until we clear the 6 point, forces us to play 6/1. If we roll two 4’s before we clear the 6 point, then any 4 will have to be played 6/2. Combine bad 4’s with the already bad 5’s, then we are really giving ourselves future problems by playing the two 8/6.

We should be aiming to have an even as possible spread of checkers on the 6, 5 and 4 points. Here we cannot put any checkers on the 5 point but we can play 6/4 giving us three 4’s before we are forced to play 6/2 with any more 4’s.

So 8/2 6/4 is my recommendation.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--D-B-I---a-a--a--acbbaba-:1:-1:-1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/8 7/5eq: -0.588
Player:
Opponent:
20.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.588...-0.588) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout115/10 7/5eq: -0.589 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
20.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.589...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds
3.xgRollout110/5 7/5eq: -0.589 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
20.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.589...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 46 seconds
4.Rollout113/6eq: -0.591 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
20.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.591...-0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds
5.Rollout113/11 10/5eq: -0.592 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
20.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.592...-0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds
6.Rollout115/10 13/11eq: -0.592 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
20.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.592...-0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 03 seconds
7.Rollout115/8eq: -0.600 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
20.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.600...-0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 7/5.

I still need to diversify and get the most out of big doubles. 13/8 7/5 looks to be slightly best.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 82
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--D-B-I---a----a-a-ccbaba-:1:-1:1:32:5:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-D-B-bDa--a--acababa-:1:-1:1:55:5:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout111/6(4)eq: +0.626
Player:
Opponent:
81.30% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
18.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.626...+0.626) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout111/1 8/3(2)eq: +0.615 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
80.73% (G:0.06% B:0.01%)
19.27% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.614...+0.617) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
3.Rollout111/6 11/1 8/3eq: +0.610 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
80.48% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
19.52% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.609...+0.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds
4.xgRollout111/6(2) 8/3(2)eq: +0.610 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
80.25% (G:0.37% B:0.03%)
19.75% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.608...+0.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout111/1 8/3 6/1eq: +0.595 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
79.71% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
20.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.593...+0.596) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds
6.Rollout111/1(2)eq: +0.590 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
79.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
20.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.588...+0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27046734
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 11/6(4)
[ 8] 11/6(2) 8/3(2)
[ 3] 8/3(2) 6/1(2)
[ 2] 11/1 8/3(2)
[ 1] 11/1(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/6(4)

Moving checkers to the 3 point seems too deep, and the 1 point even deeper.

We have just rolled a number that lets us bring four checkers in exactly so we should just play 11/6(4).

Yes, we will have gaps but Neil will need 8 crossovers to bring all his checkers in, while we will need only 2 crossovers. I think getting all our checkers in is more important.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-H-B-b-a--a--acababa-:1:-1:-1:64:5:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout115/5eq: -0.586
Player:
Opponent:
20.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.586...-0.586) - [99.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout115/11 15/9eq: -0.586 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
20.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.586...-0.586) - [0.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout115/9 13/9eq: -0.591 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
20.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.591...-0.590) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds
4.Rollout115/11 10/4eq: -0.591 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
20.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.591...-0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/5.

This play hardly matters as long as I don’t go deep into my board. I want another checker on my 5 point so 15/5 does that.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-H-B-a-a--a--acbbaba-:1:-1:1:62:5:9:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-DbB---bD---aac-baba-:1:-1:1:22:5:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/11(4)eq: +0.310
Player:
Opponent:
65.27% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
34.73% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.309...+0.312) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout113/9(2)eq: +0.252 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
61.47% (G:1.81% B:0.13%)
38.53% (G:1.59% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.250...+0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 13/11(4)
[ 8] 13/9(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11(4)

As Kit Woolsey said ‘When ahead in the race, race.’ After the roll we will be ahead in the race by 13 pips so we want to disengage and play 13/11(4).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-DbB--Db----aac-baba-:1:-1:-1:33:5:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.Rollout118/15(2) 8/5 7/4eq: -0.201
Player:
Opponent:
39.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.05% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.202...-0.201) - [93.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 38 seconds
2.playedRollout118/15(2) 13/10 8/5eq: -0.202 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
39.92% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
60.08% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.203...-0.202) - [4.3%]
Duration: 27 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout118/15(2) 13/10(2)eq: -0.202 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
39.89% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
60.11% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.203...-0.202) - [2.7%]
Duration: 29 minutes 33 seconds
4.Rollout218/15(2) 13/10 7/4eq: -0.207 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
39.74% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
60.26% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.209...-0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
5.Rollout218/15(2) 13/10 6/3eq: -0.215 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
39.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.73% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.217...-0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 23 seconds
6.Rollout218/15(2) 13/7eq: -0.216 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
39.29% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
60.71% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.219...-0.214) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 10 seconds
7.Rollout218/15(2) 8/5 6/3eq: -0.217 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
39.20% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
60.80% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.219...-0.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 26 seconds
8.Rollout213/10 13/7 8/5eq: -0.220 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
39.28% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)
60.72% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.222...-0.218) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 37 seconds
9.Rollout213/10(2) 8/5 6/3eq: -0.221 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
39.28% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
60.72% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.222...-0.219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds
10.Rollout218/12(2)eq: -0.222 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
38.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
61.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.222...-0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 15 seconds
11.Rollout213/4 8/5eq: -0.223 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
39.17% (G:0.46% B:0.01%)
60.83% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.225...-0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 57 seconds
12.Rollout218/15(2) 7/4 6/3eq: -0.223 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
38.91% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
61.09% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.225...-0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 02 seconds
13.Rollout213/7 8/5 6/3eq: -0.226 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
38.99% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)
61.01% (G:0.57% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.228...-0.225) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 03 seconds
14.Rollout213/10(2) 8/5 7/4eq: -0.230 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
38.90% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)
61.10% (G:0.73% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.232...-0.228) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 18 seconds
15.Rollout213/10 13/7 6/3eq: -0.231 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
38.73% (G:0.39% B:0.02%)
61.27% (G:0.53% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.233...-0.230) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds
16.Rollout213/10 13/4eq: -0.234 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
38.63% (G:0.46% B:0.01%)
61.37% (G:0.62% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.236...-0.233) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/15(2) 13/10 8/5.

I am a pip down after this roll which indicates staying but the timing will be against me as I will be held on my 18 point vs. them holding me on their 11 point with more spare pips to play after the next couple of rolls. This means I should advance my back checkers. So let’s make the best racing play.

That looks like 18/15(2) and then flexibly playing 13/10 and 8/5 crossing over and taking care of my gapped 5 point. The contact in their outfield one checker away hardly matters.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-D-B-bDa--a--acababa-:1:-1:1:55:5:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC---eD-A-b-c-ba---:1:-1:1:62:5:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.Rollout115/9 8/6eq: +0.470
Player:
Opponent:
70.89% (G:4.77% B:0.13%)
29.11% (G:2.22% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.469...+0.471) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 42 minutes
2.xgRollout115/9 6/4eq: +0.466 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
70.91% (G:4.36% B:0.13%)
29.09% (G:2.45% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.465...+0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 32 minutes
3.Rollout215/9 13/11eq: +0.425 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
66.65% (G:8.30% B:0.24%)
33.35% (G:4.04% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.421...+0.428) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 25 seconds
4.playedRollout215/13 8/2eq: +0.416 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
69.57% (G:2.20% B:0.07%)
30.43% (G:2.14% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.413...+0.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout215/9 4/2eq: +0.394 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
66.29% (G:6.29% B:0.14%)
33.71% (G:4.71% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.391...+0.397) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 09 seconds
6.Rollout213/5eq: +0.379 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
64.52% (G:8.09% B:0.20%)
35.48% (G:4.56% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.375...+0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 46 seconds
7.Rollout213/11 8/2eq: +0.289 (-0.181)
Player:
Opponent:
59.20% (G:9.46% B:0.30%)
40.80% (G:6.75% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.286...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 15/13 8/2
[11] 15/9 8/6
[ 1] 13/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 15/9 8/6

We find ourselves in a racing game. After the roll we will be up 33 pips in the race, and if we win this game we will be 4-away 2-away. So, let’s just race with 15/9 then we should play 8/6, but I could not give a reason why I prefer 8/6 over 6/4 here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-CbB---eE---b-c-ba---:1:-1:-1:66:5:9:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout113/7(2) 8/2(2)eq: -0.253
Player:
Opponent:
38.04% (G:1.85% B:0.06%)
61.96% (G:1.22% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.255...-0.251) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout113/7(3) 8/2eq: -0.260 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
38.05% (G:2.19% B:0.09%)
61.95% (G:1.76% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.262...-0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout113/7(2) 13/1eq: -0.267 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
37.71% (G:2.00% B:0.09%)
62.29% (G:1.77% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.269...-0.264) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 55 seconds
4.Rollout113/1(2)eq: -0.269 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
37.43% (G:1.80% B:0.04%)
62.57% (G:1.56% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.271...-0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7(2) 8/2(2).

This is still a holding game, and they have a blotting 61 roll. I’ll make two useful points with 13/7(2) 8/(2) rather than trying anything more clever. I now also have better chances should this become a race.



USBGF Members: 43 13/6


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-DbB---cD----bc-bab--:1:-1:-1:65:5:9:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/8 7/1eq: -0.231
Player:
Opponent:
39.23% (G:1.72% B:0.04%)
60.77% (G:1.31% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.233...-0.229) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout113/2eq: -0.240 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
38.60% (G:1.47% B:0.03%)
61.40% (G:1.10% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.242...-0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 6/1eq: -0.242 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
38.63% (G:1.34% B:0.05%)
61.37% (G:1.29% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.244...-0.241) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 42 seconds
4.Rollout17/1 6/1eq: -0.248 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
38.32% (G:1.47% B:0.02%)
61.68% (G:1.30% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.250...-0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 7/1.

Now I think I should play for more flexibility. If I make my ace point, I may end up with neither my 5 or 3 points made. Therefore 13/8 7/1 stands out. If they roll the horrid 61, every hitting ace allows me to make a 4 point board and that is only a 1.7% parlay. Yes, I play for flexibility and noting the race is getting ever more close.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-DbB---bD---aac-baba-:1:-1:1:22:5:9:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC---eD---c-dA-a---:1:-1:1:41:5:9:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout120/15eq: +0.415
Player:
Opponent:
66.76% (G:7.25% B:0.18%)
33.24% (G:3.64% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.411...+0.418) - [100.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout120/16 6/5eq: +0.377 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
64.90% (G:7.28% B:0.16%)
35.10% (G:3.37% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.373...+0.381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: +0.370 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
62.85% (G:10.52% B:0.20%)
37.15% (G:5.10% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.366...+0.374) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout113/8eq: +0.365 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
64.05% (G:7.77% B:0.16%)
35.95% (G:4.08% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.362...+0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 20/15
[ 3] 13/8
[ 2] 20/16 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC---eD-A-c-d--a---:1:-1:-1:42:5:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.487
Player:
Opponent:
27.46% (G:1.88% B:0.10%)
72.54% (G:3.19% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.489...-0.484) - [100.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: -0.497 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
26.73% (G:1.70% B:0.08%)
73.27% (G:2.77% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.500...-0.494) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 58 seconds
3.Rollout113/7eq: -0.503 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
26.57% (G:1.71% B:0.11%)
73.43% (G:3.10% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.506...-0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/4.

I’ll just make my 4 point and hope that their blot cannot find safety.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC---eD-A-b-c-ba---:1:-1:1:62:5:9:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbB-a-dE---c-e----A-:1:-1:1:54:5:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20 13/8eq: +0.362
Player:
Opponent:
62.41% (G:10.43% B:0.24%)
37.59% (G:4.75% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.358...+0.366) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.342 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
60.00% (G:13.13% B:0.27%)
40.00% (G:5.32% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.338...+0.346) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 46 seconds
3.Rollout113/4eq: +0.320 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
59.48% (G:12.06% B:0.25%)
40.52% (G:5.98% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.316...+0.324) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout124/15eq: +0.289 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
59.91% (G:8.33% B:0.21%)
40.09% (G:5.51% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.286...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 24/20 13/8
[ 1] 13/9 13/8
[ 1] 13/4
[ 1] 24/15


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC-a-dD---c-eA-----:1:-1:-1:32:5:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout115/13 8/5* eq: -0.463
Player:
Opponent:
34.99% (G:4.81% B:0.36%)
65.01% (G:15.11% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.465...-0.461) - [70.6%]
Duration: 5 hours 59 minutes
2.playedRollout115/13 6/3eq: -0.463 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
30.23% (G:2.90% B:0.17%)
69.77% (G:6.22% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.465...-0.462) - [29.4%]
Duration: 6 hours 00 minute
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/13 6/3.

This is a difficult play at this score, as I cannot use a gammon win and hate to lose a gammon. For money, I’d hit instantly and lift 15/13 since 13/11 leaves too many blots when outboarded this much.

But here after 15/13, I took a long look at the position and replies and it just seems prudent for me to wimp with 6/3 winning fewer games but losing fewer gammons. I hope to build up my board soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC---eD---c-dA-a---:1:-1:1:41:5:9:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BaB-CbA---dE-A-c-e----A-:1:-1:1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout113/11 8/3* eq: +0.359
Player:
Opponent:
56.89% (G:20.42% B:0.45%)
43.11% (G:10.40% B:1.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.354...+0.364) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: +0.339 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
57.27% (G:18.07% B:0.32%)
42.73% (G:9.11% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.335...+0.344) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.playedRollout115/8eq: +0.330 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
58.66% (G:14.66% B:0.25%)
41.34% (G:8.07% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.326...+0.334) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
4.Rollout124/22 13/8eq: +0.323 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
57.94% (G:15.19% B:0.31%)
42.06% (G:8.32% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.319...+0.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 15/8
[11] 13/11 8/3*
[ 1] 24/22 8/3*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BaB-CbB---dE---c-e----A-:1:-1:-1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.426
Player:
Opponent:
39.14% (G:8.07% B:0.76%)
60.86% (G:19.24% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.428...-0.424) - [99.3%]
Duration: 4 hours 46 minutes
2.playedRollout122/15eq: -0.429 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
36.34% (G:5.07% B:0.38%)
63.66% (G:14.55% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.431...-0.427) - [0.7%]
Duration: 5 hours 18 minutes
3.Rollout222/20 13/8eq: -0.437 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
37.45% (G:6.28% B:0.64%)
62.55% (G:17.39% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.442...-0.433) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout213/6eq: -0.447 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
36.90% (G:6.47% B:0.50%)
63.10% (G:17.14% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.451...-0.443) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/15.

If we were at a more balanced score, I’d bring down two builders hoping to establish some offense, but here, I think it prudent to hop out 22/15 leaving only 13 shots. This also aims at my outfield where I’d like to establish some presence and where I’d like to hit their lone back checker should it run out.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbB-a-dE---c-e----A-:1:-1:1:54:5:9:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-02

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BaB-CbA---dE-A-c-e----A-:0:0:1:00:5:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 58.12% (G:17.66% B:0.37%) 58.11% (G:17.93% B:0.35%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 41.88% (G:8.88% B:0.86%) 41.89% (G:8.61% B:0.92%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.211 +0.556
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.560±0.004 (+0.556..+0.564)
played Double/Take:+0.556 (-0.003)±0.004 (+0.552..+0.561)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.440)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.7%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58692956
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:85.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 hours 46 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] Double
[13] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We are 6 away 2 away. We need to find a position where we can win some gammons, then double. Although this is close, I think this position will do.

We have a three point board. Neil will not be able to anchor in our board if we attack. Neil has only oine inner board point on his side of the board. We are up in the race by 22 pips before the roll. With a weak opponent, we might not double here, but that is not Neil.

Even if this is not technically correct, we should double here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

Neil Kazaross takes.

I have a very easy take here, as my bar point anchor offers good defense and they can neither win this game nor gammon me often enough to scare me into a score-based pass.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BaB-CbA---dE-A-c-e----A-:1:-1:1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----a-EbC---dE-A-c-e----A-:0:0:1:44:5:9:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout18/4*(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0.537
Player:
Opponent:
57.37% (G:16.73% B:0.42%)
42.63% (G:9.32% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.527...+0.548) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
2.Rollout113/9(2) 8/4*(2) eq: +0.511 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
56.60% (G:16.92% B:0.46%)
43.40% (G:9.98% B:1.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.500...+0.521) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout113/5(2)eq: +0.442 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
56.21% (G:14.42% B:0.36%)
43.79% (G:8.90% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.432...+0.452) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58692956
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 8/4*(2) 6/2(2)
[ 5] 13/5(2)
[ 5] 13/9(2) 8/4*(2)
[ 3] 15/11 13/9(3)
[ 1] 15/11 8/4(3)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4*(2) 6/2(2)

Obviously we are hitting and making the 4 point with 8/4*(2).

For money we should play 6/2(2), improving our board. If we are hit then having a 3 point board is fantastic. We will win more gammons than playing 13/9(2).

At 6 away 2 away, we should be trying to win more Gammons (hopefully with the cube turned), so 8/4*(2) 6/2(2) should be more correct.



Neil Kazaross: 21 b/22


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BaB-CbA---dE-A-c-e----A-:0:0:1:00:5:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10