OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-08-13

August 18, 2018 by Online Match Editor Leave a Comment

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 154

11 point match

pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b--a-E-CA--dD-----caAbbA-:0:0:1:41:2:3:0:11:10

to play 41

XG Roller++

21/20* 13/9

eq: +0.363

Player:
Opponent:

58.63% (G:17.26% B:1.06%)
41.37% (G:11.48% B:0.45%)

XG Roller++

24/20* 21/20

eq: +0.303 (-0.060)

Player:
Opponent:

56.98% (G:15.71% B:0.74%)
43.02% (G:9.96% B:0.31%)

XG Roller++

21/20* 8/4*

eq: +0.248 (-0.115)

Player:
Opponent:

55.55% (G:19.12% B:1.62%)
44.45% (G:14.97% B:1.03%)

XG Roller++

9/5 6/5

eq: +0.233 (-0.131)

Player:
Opponent:

56.11% (G:17.28% B:1.14%)
43.89% (G:15.14% B:0.52%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [24] 24/20* 21/20 [ 6] 21/20* 13/9 [ 2] 21/20* 8/4* [ 1] 9/5 6/5

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 174

11 point match

pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=ab--a-E-CA--dD-----cB-bb--:0:0:-1:65:2:3:0:11:10

to play 65

XG Roller++

Bar/14

eq: -0.525

Player:
Opponent:

38.40% (G:8.33% B:0.25%)
61.60% (G:19.11% B:1.10%)

XG Roller++

Bar/20 13/7

eq: -0.537 (-0.012)

Player:
Opponent:

37.92% (G:9.40% B:0.32%)
62.08% (G:20.25% B:1.52%)

XG Roller++

Bar/20 24/18

eq: -0.541 (-0.016)

Player:
Opponent:

38.33% (G:8.69% B:0.27%)
61.67% (G:21.27% B:1.29%)

XG Roller++

Bar/20 21/15

eq: -0.543 (-0.018)

Player:
Opponent:

38.33% (G:8.28% B:0.24%)
61.67% (G:19.49% B:1.13%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/14.

There are two plans here. 1) is to try to stay out of serious immediate trouble so that means B/14. 2) is to try to anchor so that means B/20 13/7. Usually when faced with these decisions I’ve tried to avoid immediate disasters, sometimes failing to make the best play.

B/14 duplicates 2’s and 9’s and leaves them quite a few non-constructive 1’s since they cannot play an ace from their two back points.

B/20 13/7 duplicates 2’s as well but leaves me far more vulnerable. However, if I get pointed on and roll a 6 from the bar, that 6, assuming I enter, can make my bar point. (After, B/14 the 6 can safety 14/8.) However, if I get attacked and don’t respond well, I will be in real trouble and facing a cube.

I’ll follow my usual style here and wimp with B/14.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b--a-E-CA-adD-----cB-bb--:0:0:1:53:2:3:0:11:10

to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Voting to close no earlier than Sun 8/19 400p Eastern time.

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-08-12

August 17, 2018 by Online Match Editor 6 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150

11 point match

pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---b-d-ab-AA:0:0:1:51:2:3:0:11:10

to play 51

XG Roller++

Bar/20 24/23

eq: -0.363

Player:
Opponent:

42.92% (G:10.68% B:0.58%)
57.08% (G:22.14% B:1.02%)

XG Roller++

Bar/20 6/5

eq: -0.365 (-0.001)

Player:
Opponent:

43.30% (G:10.95% B:0.58%)
56.70% (G:23.79% B:1.87%)

XG Roller++

Bar/24 13/8

eq: -0.374 (-0.010)

Player:
Opponent:

41.96% (G:11.35% B:0.51%)
58.04% (G:19.38% B:1.25%)

XG Roller++

Bar/20 9/8

eq: -0.393 (-0.029)

Player:
Opponent:

41.97% (G:9.82% B:0.44%)
58.03% (G:20.87% B:0.75%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [11] b/20 24/23 [10] b/24 13/8 [10] b/20 9/8 [ 7] b/20 6/5

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20 24/23

This is tricky. We do not want to enter on the 24 point as we would like to get an advanced anchor here. So, Bar/20 for the 5.

How do we play the 1? My five second answer would have been 24/23 but looking at it I really like 6/5 duplicating Neil’s 4’s. I would not argue with a partner in a consulting match, and here it would depend on my mood. I will go with Bar/20 24/23 as it was my gut instinct. This also works well as it freezes Neil’s striped 8 point.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150

11 point match

pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---b-dAabA--:0:0:-1:61:2:3:0:11:10

to play 61

XG Roller++

8/2* 6/5*

eq: +0.037

Player:
Opponent:

50.63% (G:20.14% B:1.05%)
49.37% (G:16.43% B:1.56%)

XG Roller++

13/7 6/5*

eq: -0.008 (-0.045)

Player:
Opponent:

49.73% (G:17.26% B:0.85%)
50.27% (G:15.62% B:1.29%)

XG Roller++

24/18 4/3

eq: -0.031 (-0.067)

Player:
Opponent:

49.22% (G:13.11% B:0.56%)
50.78% (G:13.61% B:0.47%)

XG Roller++

13/6

eq: -0.041 (-0.078)

Player:
Opponent:

48.05% (G:15.14% B:0.52%)
51.95% (G:13.14% B:0.66%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2* 6/5*.

This is a poor but interesting roll. I think I am supposed to attack and use my stronger board and take advantage of the fact that they have no new points yet. Playing safe with something like 24/18 4/3 seems rather passive.

So I hit 6/5*, and there’s two choices for my 6. 13/7 brings down a builder and the wild 8/2* which can lead to a quick win or to me hoping to make a backgame. Looking at all their replies I slightly prefer 8/2*. They miss with 8 rolls and then I am doing very well. They double hit me with 10 rolls and then I will need to enter and establish a second anchor quickly. Quite a few of their rolls hit me with one checker but dance with the other and then I can hope to enter and make a 3 point board and then I will be in OK shape.

In for a penny, in for a pound.



USBGF Members:  41 b/24 b/21*

Neil Kazaross:  64 b/21 8/2

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 154

11 point match

pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b--a-E-CA--dD-----caAbbA-:0:0:1:41:2:3:0:11:10

to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Voting to close no earlier than Sat 8/18 515p Eastern time.

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-08-11

August 15, 2018 by Online Match Editor 2 Comments

[Previous]

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 159

11 point match

pip: 167
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:2:3:0:11:10

to play 43

XG Roller++

24/21 13/9

eq: -0.206

Player:
Opponent:

45.80% (G:11.68% B:0.52%)
54.20% (G:17.23% B:0.83%)

XG Roller++

13/10 13/9

eq: -0.207 (-0.001)

Player:
Opponent:

45.47% (G:12.94% B:0.55%)
54.53% (G:17.39% B:1.21%)

XG Roller++

24/20 13/10

eq: -0.221 (-0.015)

Player:
Opponent:

45.53% (G:11.60% B:0.57%)
54.47% (G:17.17% B:0.82%)

XG Roller++

24/21 24/20

eq: -0.221 (-0.015)

Player:
Opponent:

45.71% (G:10.86% B:0.54%)
54.29% (G:17.43% B:0.60%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [15] 24/21 13/9 [ 9] 13/10 13/9 [ 7] 24/20 13/10 [ 1] 24/21 24/20

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

For Money, DMP, Gammon Save and Gammon Go, the correct reply after 53 8/3 6/3 then 43 is 13/10 13/9. For money it is right by 2 or 3 millipoints. But that is if you are using Jacoby. In New Zealand, Jacoby is not used for money play, so you will find out that the play at the top by 2 millipoints becomes 24/21 13/9. In XG, uncheck Jacoby and you will see this, and you will see that I did the rollouts.

Any rolls that are separated by only 2 or 3 millipoints are effectively equal. I would play 13/10 13/9 here, especially as we want to increase the volatility against Neil. I suspect at this score, that 24/21 13/9 may be right by a couple of millipoints, but even if you showed me the rollout and it was correct, I would still bring 2 checkers down from the midpoint. I am more used to playing this as a response and as an opening roll.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 159

11 point match

pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:-1:63:2:3:0:11:10

to play 63

XG Roller++

13/4*

eq: +0.134

Player:
Opponent:

52.25% (G:17.72% B:0.92%)
47.75% (G:13.15% B:0.74%)

XG Roller++

24/15

eq: +0.014 (-0.120)

Player:
Opponent:

50.58% (G:12.92% B:0.53%)
49.42% (G:13.40% B:0.50%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/4*.

I am happy to attack 13/4* just like I would after an opening 43 24/21 13/9 play. In comparison to the opening position, a 33 response for them becomes awful rather than a joker.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150

11 point match

pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---b-d-ab-AA:0:0:1:51:2:3:0:11:10

to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-08-10

August 14, 2018 by Online Match Editor Leave a Comment

[Previous]

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 54

11 point match

pip: 39
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABDC-------------bbdcca-:1:-1:1:21:2:1:0:11:10

to play 21

Rollout¹

3/Off

eq: +0.820

Player:
Opponent:

91.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.820...+0.821) - [99.9%]
Duration: 20.9 seconds

Rollout¹

4/3 2/Off

eq: +0.819 (-0.002)

Player:
Opponent:

91.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.818...+0.819) - [0.1%]
Duration: 20.3 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [23] 3/0 [ 7] 4/3 2/0

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 3/0

After removing a checker with 2/off, we should play 3/2 to maximize the number of points our checkers are on. Another way to put this is 3/off.

Over the board, I would take a checker off the 2 point then look at the position, then decide what to do next.



Neil Kazaross:  44 4/0(4)

USBGF Members:  62 5/0 2/0

Neil Kazaross:  52 5/0 2/0

USBGF Members:  31 4/0

Neil Kazaross:  65 6/0 5/0

USBGF Members:  62 5/0 4/2

Neil Kazaross:  61 6/0 1/0

USBGF Members:  65 5/0 4/0

Neil Kazaross:  33 3/0(3) 2/0

USBGF Members:  63

Neil Kazaross wins two points and now leads 8-away/9-away.



Neil Kazaross:  53 8/3 6/3

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 159

11 point match

pip: 167
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:2:3:0:11:10

to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-08-09

August 13, 2018 by Online Match Editor Leave a Comment

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 67

11 point match

pip: 48
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=--BCEC---a---------bbccd--:1:-1:1:21:2:1:0:11:10

to play 21

Rollout¹

2/1 2/Off

eq: +0.821

Player:
Opponent:

92.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
7.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.821...+0.821) - [84.4%]
Duration: 5 minutes 37 seconds

Rollout¹

3/Off

eq: +0.821 (0.000)

Player:
Opponent:

92.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
7.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.820...+0.821) - [14.6%]
Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds

Rollout²

4/3 2/Off

eq: +0.820 (-0.001)

Player:
Opponent:

91.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.819...+0.821) - [1.1%]
Duration: 53.3 seconds

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69054464
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69054464
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [16] 3/0 [13] 4/3 2/0 [ 7] 2/1 2/0

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 2/1 2/0

First we play 2/0 then look at how best to play the 1. If we play 2/1 then we have a gap on the 2 point but any 2 can be played 4/2, so this is the correct move. I know this because years ago I read an article by Kit Woolsey called ‘The Racers Edge’. That article covers issues like this and is easily found on the internet.

If the position was slightly different, and we moved one checker from the 4 point to the 3 point then 3/0 would be correct as 2’s are more profitably played 3/1 and would be less stacked.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 67

11 point match

pip: 45
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=--BBEC---a---------bbccd--:1:-1:-1:41:2:1:0:11:10

to play 41

Rollout¹

16/12 2/1

eq: -0.895

Player:
Opponent:

4.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.896...-0.895) - [100.0%]
Duration: 49.0 seconds

Rollout¹

16/11

eq: -0.901 (-0.006)

Player:
Opponent:

4.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.902...-0.900) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.3 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/12 2/1.

Often in a nearly hopeless race it can be slightly best to assume 66 is coming. So I’ll go with 16/12 2/1, which unstacks and diversifies.



USBGF Members:  42 4/0 2/0

Neil Kazaross:  53 12/4

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 54

11 point match

pip: 39
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=--ABDC-------------bbdcca-:1:-1:1:21:2:1:0:11:10

to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-08-08

August 8, 2018 by Online Match Editor Leave a Comment

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 95

11 point match

pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-CECBB---------bbbbcab--:1:-1:1:54:2:1:0:11:10

to play 54

Rollout¹

7/3 7/2

eq: +0.166

Player:
Opponent:

63.20% (G:2.82% B:0.12%)
36.80% (G:2.74% B:0.10%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.162...+0.169) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 39 seconds

Rollout¹

6/1* 5/1

eq: +0.147 (-0.019)

Player:
Opponent:

60.99% (G:3.55% B:0.03%)
39.01% (G:3.30% B:0.12%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.144...+0.150) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 54 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [23] 7/3 7/2 [10] 6/1* 5/1

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/3 7/2

If we hit 6/1* 5/1, we get hit with any 6 plus 42. That is 13 rolls. If we play 7/3 7/2, we only get hit with 1’s or 11 rolls. The 2 rolls difference equals 5.6% increased chance of getting hit.

We would need to win a lot more gammons to justify the hit, and here hitting only wins 0.4% more gammons, so I will go with the fewest number of hits — 7/3 7/2.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 95

11 point match

pip: 61
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-aADECB----------bbbbcab--:1:-1:-1:65:2:1:0:11:10

to play 65

Rollout¹

8/3 8/2

eq: -0.586

Player:
Opponent:

19.54% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
80.46% (G:1.96% B:0.03%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.588...-0.585) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds

Rollout¹

8/3 7/1

eq: -0.595 (-0.009)

Player:
Opponent:

19.39% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
80.61% (G:2.04% B:0.04%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.597...-0.593) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62384428
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 8/2.

I have to stay on the ace point of course, as there’s plenty of chances to hit next turn and possibly in subsequent rolls. So my 5 is played 8/3 and now I have two choices for the 6. I can keep the prime for this turn with 8/2 or slot my ace point with 7/1, breaking the prime. 7/1 is slightly better for the long term as I can usually make a closed board, but 8/2 is slightly better for next roll. Since much of my chances come from hitting next roll, I slightly prefer 8/2.



USBGF Members:  51 5/0 3/2

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 84

11 point match

pip: 55
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-aBCEBB-----------bbbcbc--:1:-1:-1:54:2:1:0:11:10

to play 54

Rollout¹

7/3 7/2

eq: -0.835

Player:
Opponent:

7.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.19% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.837...-0.833) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 01 second

Rollout¹

7/3 6/1

eq: -0.853 (-0.018)

Player:
Opponent:

7.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.69% (G:2.41% B:0.05%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.855...-0.851) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62384428
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/3 7/2.

I’ll keep a 5 prime and basically winning homeboard.



USBGF Members:  61 6/5 6/0

Neil Kazaross:  62 24/16

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 67

11 point match

pip: 48
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=--BCEC---a---------bbccd--:1:-1:1:21:2:1:0:11:10

to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-08-07

August 7, 2018 by Online Match Editor 4 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 102

11 point match

pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BCBBCBA------abbbcb-b--:1:-1:1:44:2:1:0:11:10

to play 44

Rollout¹

9/5 7/3 6/2(2)

eq: +0.801

Player:
Opponent:

90.10% (G:2.70% B:0.02%)
9.90% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.798...+0.803) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 00 second

Rollout¹

9/1* 5/1(2)

eq: +0.689 (-0.112)

Player:
Opponent:

85.02% (G:3.26% B:0.01%)
14.98% (G:0.65% B:0.02%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.686...+0.692) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 58 seconds

Rollout¹

9/5 8/4 6/2(2)

eq: +0.686 (-0.115)

Player:
Opponent:

85.30% (G:2.63% B:0.03%)
14.70% (G:0.73% B:0.02%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.683...+0.688) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds

Rollout¹

9/5 7/3(3)

eq: +0.661 (-0.140)

Player:
Opponent:

84.01% (G:2.70% B:0.04%)
15.99% (G:0.65% B:0.03%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.658...+0.663) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds

Rollout¹

8/4(2) 5/1*(2)

eq: +0.644 (-0.157)

Player:
Opponent:

83.08% (G:3.27% B:0.02%)
16.92% (G:0.86% B:0.02%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.642...+0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 17 seconds

Rollout¹

9/5 8/4(2) 7/3

eq: +0.637 (-0.164)

Player:
Opponent:

82.38% (G:4.20% B:0.05%)
17.62% (G:1.01% B:0.04%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.635...+0.639) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 27 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [10] 9/5 8/4(2) 7/3 [ 6] 9/1* 5/1(2) [ 5] 9/5 7/3(3) [ 5] 9/5 7/3 6/2(2) [ 1] 9/1* 7/3 5/1

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/5 7/3 6/2(2)

This is really hard. If we put Neil on the bar, we do not win that many gammons, so instead of putting Neil on the bar, we should be focusing on a play that maximizes our winning chances. That means leaving no direct shots and hopefully no indirect shots.

Plays like 6/2(2) 5/1*(2) and 9/1* 5/1(2) all leave either indirect shots or leave indirect shots after we roll doubles. This is the type of position I would spend time with over the board as it is worth it.

Eventually I hope I would find 9/5 7/3 6/2(2), which leaves no shots, has four builders aimed at Neil’s blot and handles doubles next roll.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 102

11 point match

pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-CECBB--------abbbcb-b--:1:-1:-1:61:2:1:0:11:10

to play 61

Rollout¹

9/3 7/6

eq: -0.653

Player:
Opponent:

16.60% (G:0.92% B:0.03%)
83.40% (G:4.02% B:0.05%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.654...-0.653) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 37 seconds

Rollout¹

9/3 5/4

eq: -0.657 (-0.004)

Player:
Opponent:

16.94% (G:1.07% B:0.03%)
83.06% (G:5.15% B:0.05%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.658...-0.656) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 58 seconds

Rollout²

9/3 8/7

eq: -0.658 (-0.005)

Player:
Opponent:

17.08% (G:1.14% B:0.04%)
82.92% (G:4.95% B:0.05%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.660...-0.656) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds

Rollout²

9/3 4/3

eq: -0.671 (-0.017)

Player:
Opponent:

16.55% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
83.45% (G:5.21% B:0.06%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.673...-0.669) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 28 seconds

Rollout²

9/2

eq: -0.673 (-0.019)

Player:
Opponent:

15.70% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
84.30% (G:5.59% B:0.06%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.675...-0.670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds

Rollout²

8/7 8/2

eq: -0.676 (-0.023)

Player:
Opponent:

15.72% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)
84.28% (G:5.49% B:0.05%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.678...-0.674) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds

Rollout²

8/2 5/4

eq: -0.677 (-0.023)

Player:
Opponent:

15.81% (G:0.70% B:0.02%)
84.19% (G:6.04% B:0.06%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.679...-0.674) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds

Rollout²

8/2 7/6

eq: -0.682 (-0.029)

Player:
Opponent:

15.23% (G:0.77% B:0.02%)
84.77% (G:5.15% B:0.08%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.685...-0.680) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds

Rollout²

8/1

eq: -0.687 (-0.034)

Player:
Opponent:

15.57% (G:0.99% B:0.03%)
84.43% (G:6.18% B:0.07%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.690...-0.685) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds

10.

Rollout²

9/3 2/1

eq: -0.689 (-0.035)

Player:
Opponent:

15.46% (G:1.29% B:0.05%)
84.54% (G:6.14% B:0.08%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.692...-0.686) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 18 seconds

11.

Rollout²

7/6 7/1

eq: -0.694 (-0.040)

Player:
Opponent:

15.10% (G:0.87% B:0.03%)
84.90% (G:5.75% B:0.08%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.696...-0.691) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds

12.

Rollout²

7/1 5/4

eq: -0.707 (-0.054)

Player:
Opponent:

15.10% (G:0.91% B:0.03%)
84.90% (G:7.26% B:0.09%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.710...-0.705) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 30 seconds

13.

Rollout²

7/1 2/1

eq: -0.708 (-0.054)

Player:
Opponent:

15.14% (G:0.70% B:0.02%)
84.86% (G:7.16% B:0.10%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.710...-0.705) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds

14.

Rollout²

9/8 7/1

eq: -0.714 (-0.061)

Player:
Opponent:

14.57% (G:0.79% B:0.02%)
85.43% (G:6.78% B:0.08%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.717...-0.712) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

15.

Rollout²

8/2 4/3

eq: -0.748 (-0.095)

Player:
Opponent:

14.15% (G:0.86% B:0.03%)
85.85% (G:8.34% B:0.22%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.751...-0.745) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds

16.

Rollout²

24/23 9/3

eq: -0.759 (-0.106)

Player:
Opponent:

12.34% (G:0.89% B:0.03%)
87.66% (G:4.44% B:0.04%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.761...-0.757) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds

17.

Rollout²

9/3 6/5

eq: -0.767 (-0.113)

Player:
Opponent:

12.95% (G:0.89% B:0.03%)
87.05% (G:7.74% B:0.13%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.769...-0.764) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds

18.

Rollout²

24/23 8/2

eq: -0.774 (-0.120)

Player:
Opponent:

11.81% (G:0.65% B:0.02%)
88.19% (G:5.70% B:0.06%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.776...-0.771) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 20 seconds

19.

Rollout²

8/2 6/5

eq: -0.776 (-0.122)

Player:
Opponent:

12.66% (G:0.75% B:0.02%)
87.34% (G:8.27% B:0.15%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.778...-0.773) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds

20.

Rollout²

7/1 4/3

eq: -0.792 (-0.139)

Player:
Opponent:

12.91% (G:0.93% B:0.03%)
87.09% (G:10.05% B:0.29%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.795...-0.790) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second

21.

Rollout²

24/23 7/1

eq: -0.795 (-0.141)

Player:
Opponent:

11.26% (G:0.81% B:0.03%)
88.74% (G:6.36% B:0.08%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.797...-0.792) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds

22.

Rollout²

7/1 6/5

eq: -0.797 (-0.144)

Player:
Opponent:

12.33% (G:0.86% B:0.02%)
87.67% (G:9.57% B:0.21%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.800...-0.794) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds

23.

Rollout²

24/17

eq: -0.890 (-0.236)

Player:
Opponent:

4.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.11% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.890...-0.889) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 50 seconds

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/3 5/4.

I have decent chances for a shot now and am miles behind in the race. I will rarely lose a gammon if I stay, so running is out of the question. I’ll retain my 5 prime with 9/3 5/4, although playing 7/6 for my ace is likely just as good.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 95

11 point match

pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-CECBB---------bbbbcab--:1:-1:1:54:2:1:0:11:10

to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-08-06

August 6, 2018 by Online Match Editor 5 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 139

11 point match

pip: 124
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BB-CBB---dCa--b-cbb-A--:1:-1:1:62:2:1:0:11:10

to play 62

Rollout¹

13/7 6/4

eq: -0.182

Player:
Opponent:

49.72% (G:18.73% B:0.48%)
50.28% (G:12.30% B:0.54%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.189...-0.174) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 09 seconds

Rollout¹

13/5

eq: -0.224 (-0.042)

Player:
Opponent:

48.79% (G:20.14% B:0.97%)
51.21% (G:15.88% B:0.69%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.232...-0.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 41 seconds

Rollout¹

13/7 8/6

eq: -0.259 (-0.077)

Player:
Opponent:

47.08% (G:17.54% B:0.60%)
52.92% (G:12.43% B:0.55%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.266...-0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 27 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [24] 13/7 6/4 [12] 13/5 [ 3] 13/7 8/6 [ 1] 13/11 13/7 [ 1] 13/11 7/1*

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 6/4

After the roll we will be ahead by 23 pips — this suggests we should not be priming. Therefore, we do not want to slot 13/5. It is usually unwise to slot while you are split, and here we are split in the sense that we have an exposed single checker back in Neil’s home board. If we slot and Neil misses the slot, he can hit loose on our rearmost checker. So let’s not slot with 13/5.

The 6 has to be played 13/7, then we should play 6/4 keeping our broken 5 prime intact and exposing no further blots.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 139

11 point match

pip: 116
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BC-BCB---dBa--b-cbb-A--:1:-1:-1:11:2:1:0:11:10

to play 11

Rollout¹

4/2*(2)

eq: -0.019

Player:
Opponent:

43.07% (G:12.22% B:0.43%)
56.93% (G:19.47% B:0.67%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.022...-0.016) - [72.1%]
Duration: 5 hours 03 minutes

Rollout¹

6/2*

eq: -0.020 (-0.001)

Player:
Opponent:

44.89% (G:11.90% B:0.49%)
55.11% (G:24.71% B:0.85%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.024...-0.017) - [27.9%]
Duration: 5 hours 34 minutes

Rollout²

11/9 8/7(2)

eq: -0.041 (-0.022)

Player:
Opponent:

43.41% (G:9.63% B:0.42%)
56.59% (G:20.26% B:0.48%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.048...-0.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 4/2*(2).

I had to look at this position for quite a while, and I still find this to be a difficult decision. First of all, if I don’t hit, 11/9 8/7(2) seems superior to 11/8 6/5 since I make a solid 4 prime and leave only a 61 shot. Now to compare vs. the two hitting plays. I think with my 3 point board and being far behind in the race, I am supposed to hit.

6/2* seems to be the DMP play, since I retain some priming chances if I get return hit since I may anchor. But when I don’t anchor at a routine score with gammons counting, I may get blitzed, so at this score, I think 4/2*(2) while less constructive, is safer. I will respect their board and shift points.



USBGF Members:  55 no play

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 135

11 point match

pip: 118
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BC-BCB---dBa--b-cb--b-A:1:-1:-1:63:2:1:0:11:10

to play 63

Rollout¹

13/10 11/5

eq: +0.162

Player:
Opponent:

47.60% (G:14.95% B:0.49%)
52.40% (G:15.19% B:0.56%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.155...+0.168) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 41 seconds

Rollout¹

13/10 13/7

eq: +0.105 (-0.057)

Player:
Opponent:

46.64% (G:16.23% B:0.50%)
53.36% (G:19.76% B:1.27%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.098...+0.111) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 48 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 11/5.

If I can close more points inside my board, I may be able to win with a redouble. I also don’t want to leave too many shots and blots. My builder on the 11 point isn’t aiming at any inner board points. All this means that 11/5 13/10 is clear.



USBGF Members:  54 b/16

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 126

11 point match

pip: 109
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BC-BCB---cB-aAb-cc--b--:1:-1:-1:32:2:1:0:11:10

to play 32

Rollout¹

13/10 6/4

eq: -0.530

Player:
Opponent:

23.52% (G:3.51% B:0.12%)
76.48% (G:11.10% B:0.29%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.532...-0.528) - [96.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes

Rollout¹

13/10 5/3

eq: -0.533 (-0.003)

Player:
Opponent:

23.54% (G:3.70% B:0.14%)
76.46% (G:11.55% B:0.26%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.535...-0.531) - [3.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes

Rollout²

13/10 8/6

eq: -0.538 (-0.008)

Player:
Opponent:

22.74% (G:3.35% B:0.15%)
77.26% (G:10.11% B:0.26%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.542...-0.533) - [0.1%]
Duration: 23 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 6/4.

13/10 makes a point that occasionally can result in their blot not being able to move and 6/4 starts a good inside point.



USBGF Members:  52 16/9

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 121

11 point match

pip: 102
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BC-BCBA--bB-b-b-bca-b--:1:-1:-1:42:2:1:0:11:10

to play 42

Rollout¹

8/6 8/4

eq: -0.627

Player:
Opponent:

18.60% (G:1.49% B:0.04%)
81.40% (G:7.05% B:0.11%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.629...-0.626) - [95.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute

Rollout¹

10/4

eq: -0.629 (-0.002)

Player:
Opponent:

18.64% (G:1.44% B:0.04%)
81.36% (G:7.23% B:0.11%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.631...-0.628) - [4.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes

Rollout¹

24/20 8/6

eq: -0.632 (-0.004)

Player:
Opponent:

20.28% (G:1.61% B:0.05%)
79.72% (G:11.42% B:0.17%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.633...-0.630) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes

Rollout²

8/4 5/3

eq: -0.636 (-0.009)

Player:
Opponent:

18.75% (G:1.77% B:0.04%)
81.25% (G:7.87% B:0.13%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.640...-0.632) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 45 seconds

Rollout²

24/20 10/8

eq: -0.647 (-0.020)

Player:
Opponent:

20.19% (G:1.81% B:0.06%)
79.81% (G:12.85% B:0.17%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.651...-0.643) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 39 seconds

Rollout²

10/6 8/6

eq: -0.651 (-0.024)

Player:
Opponent:

17.99% (G:1.50% B:0.03%)
82.01% (G:8.00% B:0.20%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.655...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds

Rollout²

24/20 5/3

eq: -0.652 (-0.025)

Player:
Opponent:

20.55% (G:1.87% B:0.05%)
79.45% (G:13.89% B:0.20%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.656...-0.648) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 54 seconds

Rollout²

24/20 6/4

eq: -0.661 (-0.034)

Player:
Opponent:

19.89% (G:1.84% B:0.06%)
80.11% (G:13.64% B:0.17%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.666...-0.657) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 29 seconds

Rollout²

10/6 5/3

eq: -0.662 (-0.034)

Player:
Opponent:

18.15% (G:1.82% B:0.05%)
81.85% (G:9.06% B:0.20%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.666...-0.658) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 08 seconds

10.

Rollout²

10/8 10/6

eq: -0.663 (-0.036)

Player:
Opponent:

17.68% (G:1.38% B:0.03%)
82.32% (G:8.46% B:0.13%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.667...-0.659) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 45 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4.

I don’t think that I am supposed to step up 24/20 so I will make my 4 pt and look around for a 2. Slotting my 3 pt is OK but not so easy to cover and perhaps I can hit a fly shot next turn.

I’ll go with 10/4, although 8/6 for my 2 has to be just as good.



USBGF Members:  65 13/8 13/7

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 115

11 point match

pip: 91
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BC-BDCA--b--a-b-bcb-b--:1:-1:-1:41:2:1:0:11:10

to play 41

Rollout¹

13/9 8/7

eq: -0.699

Player:
Opponent:

15.27% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
84.73% (G:5.27% B:0.06%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.700...-0.697) - [63.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes

Rollout¹

10/6 8/7

eq: -0.699 (0.000)

Player:
Opponent:

15.23% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
84.77% (G:5.17% B:0.05%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.701...-0.698) - [33.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes

Rollout¹

13/12 13/9

eq: -0.701 (-0.002)

Player:
Opponent:

15.05% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
84.95% (G:5.24% B:0.05%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.702...-0.699) - [1.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes

Rollout¹

13/12 10/6

eq: -0.702 (-0.003)

Player:
Opponent:

15.02% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
84.98% (G:5.28% B:0.06%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.703...-0.700) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes

Rollout²

13/9 10/9

eq: -0.703 (-0.004)

Player:
Opponent:

15.19% (G:0.81% B:0.02%)
84.81% (G:5.68% B:0.05%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.707...-0.700) - [0.8%]
Duration: 9 minutes 35 seconds

Rollout²

13/12 8/4

eq: -0.704 (-0.005)

Player:
Opponent:

15.13% (G:0.81% B:0.03%)
84.87% (G:5.91% B:0.08%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.708...-0.700) - [0.3%]
Duration: 11 minutes 32 seconds

Rollout²

8/7 8/4

eq: -0.705 (-0.006)

Player:
Opponent:

15.23% (G:0.78% B:0.02%)
84.77% (G:5.96% B:0.06%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.708...-0.701) - [0.1%]
Duration: 10 minutes 43 seconds

Rollout²

13/9 5/4

eq: -0.706 (-0.007)

Player:
Opponent:

15.10% (G:0.78% B:0.02%)
84.90% (G:5.99% B:0.06%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.710...-0.703) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 47 seconds

Rollout²

8/3

eq: -0.707 (-0.008)

Player:
Opponent:

15.35% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
84.65% (G:6.20% B:0.06%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.710...-0.703) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds

10.

Rollout²

10/9 8/4

eq: -0.709 (-0.011)

Player:
Opponent:

15.19% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
84.81% (G:6.31% B:0.07%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.713...-0.706) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12 13/9.

Maybe I should have slotted my 3 point last turn or do it this turn, but I choose to retain the 8 point. Here 13/12 13/9 leaves me quite a few rolls to make that 3 point naturally. However, again I see little difference.



USBGF Members:  32 8/5 7/5

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 110

11 point match

pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BCBBCBA---a-aab-bcb-b--:1:-1:-1:53:2:1:0:11:10

to play 53

Rollout¹

10/7 8/3

eq: -0.828

Player:
Opponent:

10.23% (G:0.69% B:0.02%)
89.77% (G:6.64% B:0.11%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.830...-0.827) - [99.6%]
Duration: 44 minutes 20 seconds

Rollout¹

12/7 10/7

eq: -0.831 (-0.003)

Player:
Opponent:

10.01% (G:0.64% B:0.02%)
89.99% (G:6.53% B:0.10%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.832...-0.830) - [0.4%]
Duration: 43 minutes 04 seconds

Rollout²

12/9 8/3

eq: -0.842 (-0.013)

Player:
Opponent:

9.87% (G:0.81% B:0.03%)
90.13% (G:7.70% B:0.07%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.845...-0.838) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 08 seconds

Rollout²

9/6 8/3

eq: -0.843 (-0.015)

Player:
Opponent:

9.76% (G:0.81% B:0.04%)
90.24% (G:7.57% B:0.07%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.847...-0.840) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 40 seconds

Rollout²

12/7 9/6

eq: -0.847 (-0.018)

Player:
Opponent:

9.53% (G:0.77% B:0.03%)
90.47% (G:7.34% B:0.14%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.850...-0.844) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/7 10/7.

I am now primed, and it seems that my best hope is too make some sort of decent priming structure of my own. This is both to deter them from leaving a shot to walk their prime and also to deter them from hitting me loose on the ace point. So making my bar point seems best.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 102

11 point match

pip: 86
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BCBBCBA------abbbcb-b--:1:-1:1:44:2:1:0:11:10

to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-21

August 1, 2018 by Online Match Editor 6 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 147

11 point match

pip: 128
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-AB-DBB--aeC---a-cbb--A-:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.06% (G:26.09% B:0.77%)	60.30% (G:26.33% B:0.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.94% (G:9.02% B:0.44%)	39.70% (G:9.34% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.375	+0.764
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.464	±0.010 (+0.454..+0.474)
Double/Take:	+0.388 (-0.076)	±0.016 (+0.372..+0.403)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.536)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 92000801 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [19] Double [12] No Double

Neil Kazaross takes.

I have a very easy take here as if much of the time I am not hit, this is anyone’s game, and I will often be OK when hit.



USBGF Members:  31 24/23 6/3

Neil Kazaross:  53 14/11 13/8

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 139

11 point match

pip: 124
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-BB-CBB---dCa--b-cbb-A--:1:-1:1:62:2:1:0:11:10

to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-20

July 31, 2018 by Online Match Editor 4 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 155

11 point match

pip: 152
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-aB-D-B---eE-A-a-cbb--A-:0:0:1:66:2:1:0:11:10

to play 66

Rollout¹

13/1*(2)

eq: +0.182

Player:
Opponent:

52.85% (G:25.02% B:0.91%)
47.15% (G:13.85% B:0.70%)

Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.169...+0.194) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes

Rollout¹

15/3* 13/7(2)

eq: +0.119 (-0.062)

Player:
Opponent:

53.26% (G:19.07% B:1.10%)
46.74% (G:14.38% B:0.57%)

Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.107...+0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [22] 15/3* 13/7(2) [11] 13/1*(2) [ 2] 13/7(2) 8/2(2) [ 1] 15/9 13/7(3)

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/1*(2)

My gut instinct is to hit here, and the best way to do that is to also make another inner board point. The almost reflex move here for me is 13/1*(2). After this roll we will have 10 checkers in the zone, and Neil will be on the bar.

This move stops Neil from extending his prime with all his rolls, with the exception of doubles

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 158

11 point match

pip: 128
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=aa-AB-DBB---eC---a-cbb--A-:0:0:-1:65:2:1:0:11:10

to play 65

Rollout¹

Bar/14

eq: -0.462

Player:
Opponent:

39.73% (G:9.04% B:0.42%)
60.27% (G:25.68% B:0.76%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.466...-0.458) - [93.2%]
Duration: 10 hours 43 minutes

Rollout¹

Bar/20 13/7

eq: -0.466 (-0.005)

Player:
Opponent:

39.54% (G:10.72% B:0.55%)
60.46% (G:29.96% B:2.34%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.471...-0.462) - [6.8%]
Duration: 10 hours 44 minutes

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/14.

b/14 hopes to get a checker away but leaves me with an inferior game. However, the big play b/20 13/7 just seems too loose as I am almost certainly getting hit and will need to respond well.

I’ll go with the prudent b/14.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 147

11 point match

pip: 128
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-AB-DBB--aeC---a-cbb--A-:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-19

July 29, 2018 by Online Match Editor 6 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160

11 point match

pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-aB-D-B---eE---b-cc---B-:0:0:1:63:2:1:0:11:10

to play 63

Rollout¹

24/15

eq: -0.240

Player:
Opponent:

45.83% (G:10.96% B:0.50%)
54.17% (G:16.29% B:0.62%)

Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.245...-0.235) - [99.8%]
Duration: 13 hours 13 minutes

Rollout¹

24/18 13/10

eq: -0.250 (-0.010)

Player:
Opponent:

45.69% (G:13.14% B:0.73%)
54.31% (G:18.47% B:0.90%)

Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.255...-0.245) - [0.2%]
Duration: 13 hours 00 minute

Rollout²

24/18 6/3*

eq: -0.269 (-0.029)

Player:
Opponent:

45.64% (G:12.60% B:0.68%)
54.36% (G:19.23% B:0.99%)

Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.281...-0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes

Rollout²

13/4

eq: -0.294 (-0.054)

Player:
Opponent:

44.00% (G:13.64% B:0.50%)
56.00% (G:17.10% B:0.90%)

Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.305...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes

Rollout²

24/21 24/18

eq: -0.320 (-0.080)

Player:
Opponent:

44.89% (G:12.00% B:0.65%)
55.11% (G:20.63% B:0.78%)

Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.330...-0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes

Rollout²

13/7 6/3*

eq: -0.343 (-0.103)

Player:
Opponent:

43.71% (G:13.52% B:0.69%)
56.29% (G:19.40% B:1.51%)

Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.355...-0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [13] 24/15 [ 9] 24/18 13/10 [ 5] 13/7 6/3* [ 3] 13/4 [ 2] 24/18 6/3*

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/15

We have two choices here either 24/15 or 24/18 13/10. For many years with an opening 63 I ran 24/15. Many people told me it was the incorrect thing to do, but then they made incorrect replies to that opening roll so it was worth it. That did not work terribly well with players of better ability, so in the last three years I have switched to 24/18 13/10. But I am very used to playing with 24/15, and very used to playing the game after making that opening roll, so here my natural inclination is to play 24/15 here.

Here I suspect it’ll be close either way, but if we are missed after 24/15, it will be hard for Neil to run a checker into the outfield as we will have a double shot.

So I could be wrong, but 24/15 is my play.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160

11 point match

pip: 152
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-aB-D-B---eE-A-b-cc---A-:0:0:-1:41:2:1:0:11:10

to play 41

Rollout¹

8/4 5/4

eq: +0.030

Player:
Opponent:

49.07% (G:15.60% B:0.57%)
50.93% (G:13.43% B:0.64%)

Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.018...+0.041) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes

Rollout¹

13/8

eq: -0.028 (-0.058)

Player:
Opponent:

48.21% (G:13.54% B:0.46%)
51.79% (G:13.48% B:0.57%)

Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.039...-0.017) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 5/4.

Making my 4 point looks to be considerably superior to anything else that I can do with this roll.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 155

11 point match

pip: 152
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-aB-D-B---eE-A-a-cbb--A-:0:0:1:66:2:1:0:11:10

to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-18

July 28, 2018 by Online Match Editor Leave a Comment

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127

11 point match

pip: 147
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---b-ca-b-bB:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	61.16% (G:39.42% B:0.44%)	61.56% (G:40.12% B:0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.84% (G:11.40% B:0.82%)	38.44% (G:11.76% B:0.92%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.501	+1.088
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.679 (-0.185)	±0.009 (+0.670..+0.688)
Double/Take:	+0.864	±0.013 (+0.851..+0.877)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.136)

Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 92000801 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [27] Pass [ 9] Take

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

Neil misses us with 52, 42, 64, 65, 54 and 55. 55 is a particularly bad roll for Neil. Neil also has one checker behind our 4 prime. We have no other blots, and we have our 13 and 11 points. Add this all up, and we should take here.

Neil Kazaross wins one point. The USBGF Members lead 9-away/10-away.



Neil Kazaross:  31 8/5 6/5

USBGF Members:  42 8/4 6/4

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b--B-D-B---eE---b-db---B-:0:0:-1:21:2:1:0:11:10

to play 21

Rollout¹

24/23 13/11

eq: +0.122

Player:
Opponent:

51.89% (G:16.56% B:0.73%)
48.11% (G:14.96% B:0.72%)

Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.111...+0.133) - [97.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes

Rollout¹

24/22 6/5

eq: +0.105 (-0.017)

Player:
Opponent:

51.74% (G:15.67% B:0.77%)
48.26% (G:14.89% B:0.68%)

Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.093...+0.117) - [2.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 6/5.

I can do two decent things with the move. 6/5 creates a builder and 24/22 splits to an anchor I wouldn’t mind making and diversifies my back checkers. I slightly prefer this to 24/23 13/11 since with my 5 point made my builder on the 11 point is less valuable. However, I do risk getting badly hurt by 55 and 33.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160

11 point match

pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a-aB-D-B---eE---b-cc---B-:0:0:1:63:2:1:0:11:10

to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-17

July 27, 2018 by Online Match Editor 3 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134

11 point match

pip: 147
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---c-ca-b-aB:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.24% (G:28.78% B:2.35%)	65.24% (G:29.57% B:2.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.76% (G:12.11% B:0.39%)	34.76% (G:12.30% B:0.42%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.494	+0.992
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.603 (-0.018)	±0.004 (+0.598..+0.607)
Double/Take:	+0.621	±0.007 (+0.613..+0.628)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.379)

Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 69245878 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 12 hours 56 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [28] No Double [ 6] Double

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

If we use O’Hagan’s Law, we have 20 rolls that hit and 44 which leaves us in a very good position. That’s 21 rolls but we need to subtract the 4 rolls that we stay on the bar giving us a net of 17 rolls. Note that O’Hagan’s Law is for an unlimited game. Here we are ahead by 2 points in the match, which may not seem like much but should make us more cautious. Balancing that is Neil is a Giant, so we need to take some chances.

I would say double but I could be wrong.



USBGF Members:  43 b/21

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134

11 point match

pip: 143
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---c-caAb-aA:0:0:-1:43:2:0:0:11:10

to play 43

Rollout¹

8/4* 4/1

eq: +0.012

Player:
Opponent:

45.68% (G:24.27% B:0.40%)
54.32% (G:19.47% B:1.26%)

Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.002...+0.022) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute

Rollout¹

8/5 8/4*

eq: -0.081 (-0.093)

Player:
Opponent:

44.83% (G:22.25% B:0.58%)
55.17% (G:24.98% B:3.21%)

Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.091...-0.071) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 48 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92000801
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4*/1.

A reasonable roll for me. As I have to leave at least one vulnerable blot anyhow, I might as well continue my blitz with 8/4*/1, leaving only 11 return shots.



USBGF Members:  61 no play

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 127

11 point match

pip: 147
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---b-ca-b-bB:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-16

July 26, 2018 by Online Match Editor 5 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153

11 point match

pip: 156
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-aa--BDBA---dD---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:2:0:0:11:10

to play 43

Rollout¹

24/20 8/5

eq: +0.170

Player:
Opponent:

54.70% (G:17.82% B:0.82%)
45.30% (G:13.18% B:0.48%)

Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.159...+0.180) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes

Rollout¹

13/9 8/5

eq: +0.120 (-0.050)

Player:
Opponent:

53.08% (G:18.57% B:0.77%)
46.92% (G:13.79% B:0.74%)

Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.108...+0.131) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77936336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [20] 24/20 8/5 [ 6] 13/9 8/5 [ 4] 24/21 6/2* [ 2] 8/4 7/4 [ 2] 13/10 6/2* [ 1] 24/20 13/10 [ 1] 24/21 24/20

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20 8/5

We need to safety the checker on our 8 point by playing 8/5, as Neil has a two point board now and rolls that hit. Then decide how to use the 4. 6/2* looks like overkill as Neil is not threatening much. 13/9 leaves Neil too many shots that hit and start to escape. That leaves 24/20 — which is good as Neil only has 9 checkers in the zone and making an anchor is always good. So my play would be 24/20 8/5.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153

11 point match

pip: 149
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-aa--CDB----dD---c-dA-b-A-:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10

to play 65

Rollout¹

23/17 13/8

eq: -0.379

Player:
Opponent:

41.04% (G:8.93% B:0.37%)
58.96% (G:19.82% B:0.64%)

Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.389...-0.369) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes

Rollout¹

23/17 6/1*

eq: -0.413 (-0.034)

Player:
Opponent:

40.05% (G:10.13% B:0.34%)
59.95% (G:21.73% B:1.03%)

Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.423...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77936336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/17 13/8.

23/17 is certainly my 6, and then I clearly prefer 13/8 rather than the basically unneeded tempo hit 6/1*. 13/8 doesn’t strip the mid, and they aren’t threatening too much so even though 6/1* duplicates their 5’s to anchor or hit, I think it is wrong to risk losing 24 pips in the race if they roll an ace.



USBGF Members:  22 13/11(2) 6/4(2)

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 142

11 point match

pip: 141
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---d-dA-b-A-:0:0:-1:53:2:0:0:11:10

to play 53

Rollout¹

8/5* 6/1*

eq: -0.616

Player:
Opponent:

34.71% (G:12.10% B:0.38%)
65.29% (G:29.03% B:2.39%)

Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.632...-0.600) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute

Rollout¹

13/5*

eq: -0.792 (-0.176)

Player:
Opponent:

31.98% (G:9.67% B:0.48%)
68.02% (G:28.33% B:1.86%)

Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.806...-0.778) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 77936336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5* 6/1*.

There’s no good play here, and any reasonable play has to start with 8/5*. After this I think 6/1* is best since it helps protect my blot on the 17 pt since now they cannot enter and hit with a 3. I have 10 checkers in the attack zone and may be able to turn this around quickly if missed. This also retains a spare on my mid point.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 134

11 point match

pip: 147
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--BCBBa--BcB---c-ca-b-aB:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-15

July 25, 2018 by Online Match Editor 6 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 161

11 point match

pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-aa---EBB---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:31:2:0:0:11:10

to play 31

Rollout¹

8/5 6/5

eq: +0.119

Player:
Opponent:

53.42% (G:16.96% B:0.71%)
46.58% (G:12.52% B:0.64%)

Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.107...+0.130) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes

Rollout¹

24/20

eq: +0.075 (-0.044)

Player:
Opponent:

52.81% (G:13.62% B:0.66%)
47.19% (G:12.23% B:0.42%)

Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.065...+0.085) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes

Rollout¹

24/23 24/21

eq: +0.056 (-0.062)

Player:
Opponent:

52.45% (G:12.80% B:0.55%)
47.55% (G:12.26% B:0.44%)

Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.046...+0.066) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77936336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [24] 8/5 [ 8] 24/23 13/10 [ 1] 24/20

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 6/5

Stick has a simple rule – every time you can make your 5 point, think very carefully about doing so. If making the 5 point is wrong, it will only be wrong by a little bit, but when it is correct, it will be correct by a lot. Here we should just make the 5 point with 8/5 6/5.

We will be hit with 17 numbers minus 4 non-hitting numbers (22, 33 and 51) plus 4 extra hitting numbers (52 and 43) so 17 numbers overall.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 161

11 point match

pip: 156
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-aa--BDBA---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:-1:53:2:0:0:11:10

to play 53

Rollout¹

8/3 6/3

eq: -0.356

Player:
Opponent:

41.06% (G:11.85% B:0.60%)
58.94% (G:21.18% B:0.86%)

Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.369...-0.344) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes

Rollout¹

24/16

eq: -0.452 (-0.096)

Player:
Opponent:

40.06% (G:9.07% B:0.48%)
59.94% (G:23.37% B:0.86%)

Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.463...-0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77936336
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/3.

I need to unstack and build my board as best as I can.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 153

11 point match

pip: 156
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-aa--BDBA---dD---c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:2:0:0:11:10

to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-14

July 24, 2018 by Online Match Editor 1 Comment

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 113
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=aB-B-BD-----BB-d-c-bcAb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.47% (G:15.86% B:0.10%)	70.92% (G:16.16% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.53% (G:5.35% B:0.23%)	29.08% (G:5.10% B:0.32%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.518	+1.072
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.776 (-0.093)	±0.005 (+0.771..+0.781)
Redouble/Take:	+0.868	±0.009 (+0.859..+0.877)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.132)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 91650867 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 59 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [30] Redouble [ 7] No Redouble

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Redouble

We escaped a checker, and now we can think about doubling.

If we use O’Hagan’s Law, we need 12 net market losers to redouble, assuming the other rolls are ok. Go through the numbers and you will see we do indeed have a net 12 market losers. And we are doing ok on the other rolls. In fact, all the rolls have positive equity, so ship it.

Neil Kazaross to play:

Neil Kazaross passes.

Even looking at the occasional fly shot I might hit next turn, I am hard pressed to come up with 20% hitting chances for me next roll and while these put me on the road to winning, they don’t guarantee a win. But what about later if they don’t get out and I enter and the can’t escape again? Well they usually can then hit my back checker somewhere.

Their non-escaping 11, 22,and 44 all make their 4 point, and put me in some gammon danger as well.

I am certainly not dead if they hop out, but being on the bar and behind in the race and with them with outfield control makes things look bleak, although sometimes I may get a fly shot or two as they come home.

All things considered this looks like a flip a coin decision, but rather than flip it, I’ll just be conservative and pass.

USBGF Members win two points and lead 9-away/11-away.



USBGF Members:  61 13/7 8/7

Neil Kazaross:  51 24/23 13/8

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 161

11 point match

pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members

XGID=-aa---EBB---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:31:2:0:0:11:10

to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-13

July 23, 2018 by Online Match Editor 6 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 122
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=aB-B-BD-----AB-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:11:10

to play 63

Rollout¹

21/12

eq: +0.502

Player:
Opponent:

60.00% (G:15.10% B:0.17%)
40.00% (G:9.52% B:0.30%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.495...+0.509) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 44 seconds

Rollout¹

13/10 12/6

eq: +0.324 (-0.178)

Player:
Opponent:

52.96% (G:15.42% B:0.11%)
47.04% (G:8.00% B:0.47%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.318...+0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 52 seconds

Rollout¹

12/3

eq: +0.312 (-0.190)

Player:
Opponent:

52.70% (G:13.70% B:0.09%)
47.30% (G:7.90% B:0.38%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.306...+0.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 29 seconds

Rollout¹

21/18 12/6

eq: +0.303 (-0.199)

Player:
Opponent:

54.00% (G:14.78% B:0.18%)
46.00% (G:12.67% B:0.52%)

Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.298...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 08 seconds

Rollout¹

13/10 13/7

eq: +0.283 (-0.219)

Player:
Opponent:

51.01% (G:16.58% B:0.11%)
48.99% (G:7.77% B:0.45%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.278...+0.289) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 35 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [28] 21/12 [ 6] 13/7 12/9 [ 6] 13/10 13/7

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/12

Anchors are great. They protect us against being blitzed and if they are advanced enough, they protect us against being primed. But there comes a time to give up our anchor. Breaking our anchor when Neil is on the bar is probably the best time to break anchor — this includes breaking the anchor to hit. So we should run here. We will be up in the race by 9 pips after the roll.



Neil Kazaross:  65 no play

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 113
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=aB-B-BD-----BB-d-c-bcAb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-12

July 22, 2018 by Online Match Editor 3 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 122
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=aB-B-BD-----AB-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.49% (G:16.82% B:0.16%)	59.25% (G:16.96% B:0.21%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.51% (G:8.23% B:0.40%)	40.75% (G:8.39% B:0.57%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.257	+0.544
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.492	±0.007 (+0.485..+0.499)
Redouble/Take:	+0.243 (-0.249)	±0.011 (+0.232..+0.254)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.508)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 91650867 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [21] No Redouble [ 7] Redouble

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Redouble

This is much more menacing, but we still have 2 checkers to escape.

If you move one of our checkers to the 16 point then it is almost a double. Move it to the 14 point and then we have only 1 checker left to escape – then we would have a redouble. So let’s escape one checker, and then give Neil the cube.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 122
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=aB-B-BD-----AB-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:11:10

to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-11

July 21, 2018 by Online Match Editor 3 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 130
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=aB-B-AD-----AC-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	47.09% (G:11.97% B:0.10%)	47.69% (G:12.07% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	52.91% (G:9.49% B:0.42%)	52.31% (G:10.43% B:0.58%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.036	-0.067
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.148	±0.006 (+0.142..+0.154)
Redouble/Take:	-0.471 (-0.619)	±0.012 (-0.483..-0.460)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.852)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 29.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 91650867 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [20] No Redouble [ 0] Redouble



USBGF Members:  22 13/5

Neil Kazaross:  55 no play

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 122
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=aB-B-BD-----AB-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-10

July 21, 2018 by Online Match Editor 2 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113

11 point match

pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-----AF-B-a--C-d-c-cbCb---:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:11:10

to play 55

Rollout¹

8/3(2) 6/1(2)

eq: -0.568

Player:
Opponent:

20.15% (G:1.17% B:0.02%)
79.85% (G:4.28% B:0.09%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.569...-0.566) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 35 minutes

Rollout¹

13/3 6/1(2)

eq: -0.573 (-0.005)

Player:
Opponent:

19.94% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
80.06% (G:4.25% B:0.11%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.575...-0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes

Rollout²

21/6 13/8

eq: -0.578 (-0.010)

Player:
Opponent:

19.74% (G:1.03% B:0.03%)
80.26% (G:3.70% B:0.14%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.582...-0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 33 seconds

Rollout²

13/3 8/3 6/1

eq: -0.578 (-0.010)

Player:
Opponent:

19.93% (G:1.21% B:0.03%)
80.07% (G:4.84% B:0.15%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.582...-0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 26 seconds

Rollout²

13/3 8/3(2)

eq: -0.584 (-0.016)

Player:
Opponent:

19.66% (G:1.12% B:0.03%)
80.34% (G:4.57% B:0.13%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.588...-0.580) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 47 seconds

Rollout²

21/6 8/3

eq: -0.585 (-0.017)

Player:
Opponent:

19.53% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
80.47% (G:3.98% B:0.15%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.589...-0.582) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 15 seconds

Rollout²

21/11 8/3(2)

eq: -0.592 (-0.024)

Player:
Opponent:

20.02% (G:1.36% B:0.03%)
79.98% (G:6.14% B:0.16%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.596...-0.588) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 35 seconds

Rollout²

21/1

eq: -0.592 (-0.025)

Player:
Opponent:

19.44% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
80.56% (G:4.75% B:0.16%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.596...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 05 seconds

Rollout²

13/8(2) 13/3

eq: -0.602 (-0.035)

Player:
Opponent:

18.66% (G:0.88% B:0.02%)
81.34% (G:3.88% B:0.08%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.606...-0.599) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 45 seconds

10.

Rollout²

21/11 13/3

eq: -0.605 (-0.037)

Player:
Opponent:

19.62% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
80.38% (G:6.53% B:0.18%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.609...-0.601) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 41 seconds

11.

Rollout²

21/11 6/1(2)

eq: -0.610 (-0.042)

Player:
Opponent:

19.34% (G:1.15% B:0.03%)
80.66% (G:6.66% B:0.15%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.613...-0.606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 35 seconds

12.

Rollout²

13/8(3) 6/1

eq: -0.620 (-0.052)

Player:
Opponent:

17.99% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
82.01% (G:4.35% B:0.08%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.624...-0.617) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 35 seconds

13.

Rollout²

21/16 13/3 8/3

eq: -0.629 (-0.061)

Player:
Opponent:

19.62% (G:1.68% B:0.06%)
80.38% (G:9.55% B:0.30%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.633...-0.625) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 02 seconds

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [22] 8/3(2) 6/1(2) [ 3] 21/6 13/8 [ 2] 13/3 6/1(2) [ 2] 21/11 8/3(2) [ 1] 21/16 13/3 8/3 [ 1] 21/16 13/3 8/3 [ 1] 21/11 6/1(2) [ 1] 21/11 13/3 [ 1] 13/3 8/3(2)

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3(2) 6/1(2)

After the roll we will still be behind in the race by 20 pips with Neil on roll, so we should not moving any of our back checkers.

Instead, we need to concentrate on building our board so if we get a shot and hit it, we have the best board we can possibly have. Our 6 point also needs unstacking so we should just play 8/3(2) 6/1(2).

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113

11 point match

pip: 139
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-B-B-AD---a--C-d-c-cbCb---:1:1:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10

to play 21

Rollout¹

15/13 6/5

eq: +0.436

Player:
Opponent:

74.03% (G:7.24% B:0.25%)
25.97% (G:3.03% B:0.04%)

Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.432...+0.441) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 00 second

Rollout¹

15/14 10/8

eq: +0.399 (-0.037)

Player:
Opponent:

72.60% (G:7.37% B:0.24%)
27.40% (G:3.31% B:0.04%)

Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.394...+0.404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 52 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91650867
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/13 6/5.

There are only 2 plays to consider. 15/13 6/5 which leaves 15 shots but only one hit/cover roll and 15/14 10/8 which leaves 13 shots but 6 hit/cover rolls.
Hit and covers are very bad for me so this has me thinking to just leave them the one joker. Additionally, it is a bit easier for me to play safe next turn when missed if I advance 15/13. 15/14 also lets their hitting 55 play rather well.

Everything points to 15/13 6/5 being clear.



USBGF Members:  63 21/12*

Neil Kazaross:  61 no play

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 130
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=aB-B-AD-----AC-d-c-bcBb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-09

July 20, 2018 by Online Match Editor 5 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 166
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=------F-C-ba-C-b-c-cbBb--A:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:11:10

to play 43

Rollout¹

Bar/21 8/5

eq: -0.516

Player:
Opponent:

23.54% (G:2.84% B:0.08%)
76.46% (G:9.26% B:0.23%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.518...-0.514) - [99.9%]
Duration: 5 hours 36 minutes

Rollout¹

Bar/21 6/3

eq: -0.521 (-0.004)

Player:
Opponent:

23.49% (G:2.75% B:0.09%)
76.51% (G:9.46% B:0.24%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.523...-0.519) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 hours 28 minutes

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [25] b/21 8/5 [14] b/21 6/3

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 8/5

It would be nice to unstack the 6 point but the 5 point is the 5 point so we should play 8/5. In a chouette I would go with whatever the team wanted.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-----AF-B-ba-C-b-c-cbCb---:1:1:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10

to play 54

Rollout¹

15/10 14/10

eq: +0.513

Player:
Opponent:

76.23% (G:9.23% B:0.21%)
23.77% (G:2.64% B:0.08%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.511...+0.515) - [99.2%]
Duration: 5 hours 16 minutes

Rollout¹

15/11 15/10

eq: +0.509 (-0.003)

Player:
Opponent:

76.14% (G:9.50% B:0.24%)
23.86% (G:2.93% B:0.09%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.508...+0.511) - [0.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 23 minutes

Rollout²

14/5

eq: +0.479 (-0.034)

Player:
Opponent:

75.23% (G:9.05% B:0.19%)
24.77% (G:3.04% B:0.11%)

Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.475...+0.484) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 08 seconds

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/10 14/10.

It certainly looks like time to pay now and duplicate 3’s and leave only 6 hit and cover rolls while their board is still awkward. If I wait and play 14/5, they can cover their slot with 24 rolls (although 22 is better played making the 4 point) and have a couple other rolls that make inside point(s) so I will face greater danger later. This play goes along with my plan from a couple of rolls ago when I attacked with 44 hoping to slow their board development.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 113

11 point match

pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-----AF-B-a--C-d-c-cbCb---:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:11:10

to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-08

July 18, 2018 by Online Match Editor 2 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 146

11 point match

pip: 171
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--a-E-C-aA-C-b-cbcbB---A:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:11:10

to play 53

Rollout¹

Bar/22 11/6

eq: -0.387

Player:
Opponent:

29.83% (G:5.54% B:0.21%)
70.17% (G:14.08% B:0.62%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.394...-0.379) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes

Rollout¹

Bar/22 13/8

eq: -0.419 (-0.032)

Player:
Opponent:

30.62% (G:6.14% B:0.28%)
69.38% (G:20.06% B:0.89%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.426...-0.412) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes

Rollout¹

Bar/22 6/1*

eq: -0.426 (-0.039)

Player:
Opponent:

30.17% (G:6.05% B:0.20%)
69.83% (G:19.26% B:0.82%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.433...-0.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [20] b/22 11/6 [12] b/22 6/1* [ 5] b/22 13/8

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 11/6

Now is not the time to leave blots. I know that I would play 11/6 quickly even though I do not like stacking the 6 point, leaving blots is worse.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 146

11 point match

pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--a-F-C-a--C-b-cbcbBA---:1:1:-1:44:0:0:0:11:10

to play 44

Rollout¹

24/16 7/3*(2)

eq: +0.421

Player:
Opponent:

71.10% (G:14.86% B:0.57%)
28.90% (G:5.03% B:0.19%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.415...+0.426) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes

Rollout¹

24/20 15/11 7/3*(2)

eq: +0.408 (-0.013)

Player:
Opponent:

70.46% (G:15.92% B:0.49%)
29.54% (G:5.31% B:0.18%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.402...+0.414) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes

Rollout¹

15/3* 7/3

eq: +0.354 (-0.066)

Player:
Opponent:

67.12% (G:19.91% B:0.65%)
32.88% (G:6.40% B:0.25%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.348...+0.361) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes

Rollout¹

24/16 15/7

eq: +0.350 (-0.071)

Player:
Opponent:

68.52% (G:15.73% B:0.59%)
31.48% (G:6.24% B:0.31%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.343...+0.356) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/16 7/3*(2).

I find this to be a difficult choice between keeping my blockade or switching to the 3 point. I’d switch instantly if there were any other blots to pick up. Lets look at the complete play. If I play 15/7, then the last two 4’s run 24/16. If I play 7/3*(2), then the best way to play the position should be to run 24/16 maintaining connectivity while they are on the bar and have very few jokers. So with that settled I play 24/16 and just have to compare 15/7 vs. 7/3*(2).

I think 15/7 would be right if my two back checkers were closer to home. But in looking at how all their rolls play I think pointing is better. My big gains come the 25% of the time they dance, as I maintain the initiative and can easily move closer to home and my gammon chances go up. If they enter with anything but a joker they can’t make a new point and their entering 5’s and 6’s don’t accomplish much. If I get hit in their outfield I have return shots and some other rolls can enter and make a point in their outfield.

I’ll hit, trying to maintain the initiative and using a 3 point board, while trying to slow them from developing their position.



USBGF Members:  65 no play

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130

11 point match

pip: 166
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=----a-F-Caa--C-b-c-cbBb--A:1:1:-1:62:0:0:0:11:10

to play 62

Rollout¹

21/15 16/14

eq: +0.551

Player:
Opponent:

76.12% (G:14.33% B:0.43%)
23.88% (G:3.27% B:0.11%)

Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.546...+0.556) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes

Rollout¹

21/13

eq: +0.527 (-0.024)

Player:
Opponent:

74.62% (G:16.17% B:0.46%)
25.38% (G:3.99% B:0.17%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.521...+0.533) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes

Rollout¹

21/15 8/6

eq: +0.520 (-0.031)

Player:
Opponent:

74.67% (G:15.05% B:0.46%)
25.33% (G:3.71% B:0.13%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.515...+0.526) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 10 seconds

Rollout¹

16/10 15/13

eq: +0.512 (-0.039)

Player:
Opponent:

74.09% (G:16.22% B:0.50%)
25.91% (G:3.98% B:0.13%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.506...+0.517) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 53 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/15 16/14.

I should just make my way towards home.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122

11 point match

pip: 166
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=------F-C-ba-C-b-c-cbBb--A:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:11:10

to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-07

July 16, 2018 by Online Match Editor 3 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152

11 point match

pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C-AAcC---cadbA--A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.15% (G:25.98% B:2.04%)	63.98% (G:27.44% B:2.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.85% (G:8.98% B:0.47%)	36.02% (G:9.31% B:0.54%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.473	+0.984
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.665 (-0.027)	±0.004 (+0.661..+0.670)
Double/Take:	+0.693	±0.007 (+0.686..+0.699)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.307)

Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38337291 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 16 hours 34 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [31] Take [ 4] Pass

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

Good double, Neil has 10 checkers in the zone and points on us with 10 numbers. He hits us in the outfield 7 numbers.

But we are not on the bar and Neil has misses. This can go many ways, we could anchor, or hit back or not be hit. It is far too early to let this go. This is an easy take.

Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

While the game has just begun I believe that I have enough threats and a strong enough position to cube. Most certainly, the USBGF Members have adequate play to make this a clear take. My real threats come from hitting something and having them dance or enter poorly. Most of my rolls can either point on them or make a 4 prime. If this gets into a blot hitting contest I have the stronger board and often will have a 4 prime as well.

Due to my attack, I (as does Grant) think 10/8 was slightly better than 13/11 for their last play.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152

11 point match

pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C-AAcC---cadbA--A-:1:1:-1:62:0:0:0:11:10

to play 62

Rollout¹

13/7 6/4*

eq: +0.355

Player:
Opponent:

64.95% (G:25.85% B:2.42%)
35.05% (G:9.37% B:0.73%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.348...+0.362) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes

Rollout¹

24/22 13/7

eq: +0.200 (-0.155)

Player:
Opponent:

61.87% (G:20.22% B:1.31%)
38.13% (G:9.87% B:0.42%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.193...+0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes

Rollout¹

7/1* 6/4*

eq: +0.195 (-0.159)

Player:
Opponent:

59.04% (G:27.71% B:2.58%)
40.96% (G:12.02% B:0.88%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.187...+0.204) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 6/4*.

I have a straight forward normal attacking play. 13/7 makes my 4 prime and then I’ll play 6/4*, hoping to extend my prime or blitz. I will be missed half the time and have a very strong advantage. The other half the time I will be hit and have a 4 prime and hope to roll decently from the bar, entering their 1 point board and hopefully accomplishing something somewhere. Additionally, they will be in extreme danger after their 4 dancing rolls.



USBGF Members:  64 b/21*/15

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 165

11 point match

pip: 153
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=ab----E-C-AAbC-A-cbcb---A-:1:1:-1:43:0:0:0:11:10

to play 43

Rollout¹

Bar/21 13/10*

eq: +0.303

Player:
Opponent:

63.71% (G:25.70% B:2.56%)
36.29% (G:10.48% B:0.88%)

Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.295...+0.312) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes

Rollout¹

Bar/21 24/21

eq: +0.111 (-0.192)

Player:
Opponent:

58.60% (G:18.84% B:0.86%)
41.40% (G:9.27% B:0.41%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.103...+0.119) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 13/10*.

Fortunately I can return hit. This is much better than anchoring and allowing them to consolidate and make new good points.



USBGF Members:  43 b/21 24/21

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 158

11 point match

pip: 156
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b--a-E-C-AAaC-a-cbcbB----:1:1:-1:33:0:0:0:11:10

to play 33

Rollout¹

24/15* 13/10

eq: +0.321

Player:
Opponent:

66.83% (G:17.25% B:0.66%)
33.17% (G:6.89% B:0.30%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.313...+0.329) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes

Rollout¹

24/21 24/15*

eq: +0.264 (-0.058)

Player:
Opponent:

64.54% (G:17.23% B:0.96%)
35.46% (G:7.53% B:0.34%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.256...+0.271) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/15* 13/10.

This looks clear to me as well as I have a play that sends back a third checker, gains nicely in the race, diversifies, and makes my 10 point while cleaning up blots and better containing their checkers that just anchored on my 4 point. Hitting is much better for me than passively anchoring somewhere.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 146

11 point match

pip: 171
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-a--a-E-C-aA-C-b-cbcbB---A:1:1:1:35:0:0:0:11:10

to play 35

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-06

July 15, 2018 by Online Match Editor 4 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152

11 point match

pip: 165
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C-A-cD---cadb---AA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10

to play 42

Rollout¹

Bar/21 10/8

eq: -0.664

Player:
Opponent:

35.60% (G:8.32% B:0.41%)
64.40% (G:24.33% B:1.00%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.669...-0.660) - [75.7%]
Duration: 12 hours 36 minutes

Rollout¹

Bar/23 13/9

eq: -0.667 (-0.002)

Player:
Opponent:

36.29% (G:9.75% B:0.50%)
63.71% (G:27.54% B:2.27%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.673...-0.660) - [24.3%]
Duration: 13 hours 12 minutes

Rollout²

Bar/21 13/11

eq: -0.689 (-0.025)

Player:
Opponent:

35.79% (G:9.02% B:0.41%)
64.21% (G:26.36% B:2.30%)

Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.703...-0.675) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes

Rollout²

Bar/21 24/22

eq: -0.697 (-0.033)

Player:
Opponent:

35.84% (G:8.60% B:0.49%)
64.16% (G:27.93% B:1.37%)

Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.713...-0.681) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 26394332
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [16] b/21 13/11 [ 8] b/23 13/9 [ 7] b/21 10/8 [ 3] b/21 24/22

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 10/8

Neil has 10 checkers in the zone so it looks like we should enter on the 23 point, but if we do that 13/9 leaves another blot and 10/6 overstacks the 6 point. So we have to enter on the 21 point. We want to avoid 13/11 as it leaves another blot when we could be attacked.

Entering on the 21 point is good because if Neil makes a prime, we could anchor at the very edge of it. We will probably be attacked so we want to have reduce the number of blots we have anywhere. This means we need to play 10/8 which tidies up the blot but does not over stack the 10 point.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152

11 point match

pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C-AAcC---cadbA--A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-05

July 14, 2018 by Online Match Editor 1 Comment

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-db---B-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:11:10

to play 63

Rollout¹

24/18 13/10

eq: -0.381

Player:
Opponent:

42.01% (G:10.47% B:0.50%)
57.99% (G:19.63% B:0.98%)

Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.386...-0.376) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 59 minutes

Rollout¹

24/15

eq: -0.394 (-0.013)

Player:
Opponent:

41.86% (G:9.39% B:0.43%)
58.14% (G:19.25% B:0.72%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.398...-0.389) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 51 minutes

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [25] 24/18 13/10 [ 7] 24/15

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 13/10

For years I always played 24/15 but it is better to split now with 24/18 13/10 while Neil has a stripped 8 point.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 158
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---bAdb---A-:0:0:-1:65:0:0:0:11:10

to play 65

Rollout¹

13/8 13/7*

eq: +0.485

Player:
Opponent:

60.21% (G:21.46% B:1.15%)
39.79% (G:10.15% B:0.54%)

Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.480...+0.490) - [99.9%]
Duration: 11 hours 48 minutes

Rollout¹

13/7* 6/1*

eq: +0.474 (-0.011)

Player:
Opponent:

58.96% (G:25.04% B:1.01%)
41.04% (G:11.20% B:0.64%)

Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.469...+0.479) - [0.1%]
Duration: 10 hours 51 minutes

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38337291
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 13/7*.

This happens to be a 3rd roll situation that I know and was discussing with David Rockwell in Novi. The best play is 13/8 13/7*.

In contrast to responding to an opening 63 24/18 13/10, now 13/8 adds a needed spare to the 8 point, whereas 6/1* is getting close to stripping the 6 point. Additionally the presence of my 5 point means that 65 and 22 no longer can hit me.

Also quite important is that my play steers towards making a 4 prime and also a priming game.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 152

11 point match

pip: 165
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C-A-cD---cadb---AA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10

to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-04

July 13, 2018 by Online Match Editor 2 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]



Neil Kazaross:  31 8/5 6/5

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 163

11 point match

pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-db---B-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:11:10

to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #9, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-03

July 13, 2018 by Online Match Editor 1 Comment

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 4

11 point match

pip: 144
score: 6

is USBGF Members

XGID=---BBBBB----AA-------A-bB-:1:1:1:65:6:7:0:11:10

to play 65

Rollout¹

21/15 13/8

eq: -2.470

Player:
Opponent:

0.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.32% (G:91.29% B:90.79%)

Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.470...-2.469) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32.3 seconds

Rollout¹

21/10

eq: -2.471 (-0.001)

Player:
Opponent:

0.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.33% (G:91.35% B:91.28%)

Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.471...-2.470) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.2 seconds

Rollout¹

13/8 12/6

eq: -2.474 (-0.004)

Player:
Opponent:

0.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.34% (G:91.50% B:91.48%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-2.474...-2.473) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59.3 seconds

Rollout¹

24/18 13/8

eq: -2.477 (-0.007)

Player:
Opponent:

0.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.35% (G:91.69% B:88.60%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-2.477...-2.476) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.1 seconds

Rollout¹

24/18 21/16

eq: -2.479 (-0.009)

Player:
Opponent:

0.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.36% (G:91.79% B:75.54%)

Conf.: ± 0.000 (-2.479...-2.478) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41.2 seconds

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37236461
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [11] 21/15 13/8 [ 6] 24/18 13/8 [ 4] 21/10 [ 4] 24/18 21/16 [ 1] 13/8 12/6

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 13/8

We have to come down to 1 checker on the 24 point so that any 1 by Neil except 11 gives us a shot.

Then it would be great to have a 6 prime, so the 5 has to be played 13/8. This means we have to play 24/18 with the 6.



Neil Kazaross:  61 2/0

USBGF Members:  54 15/10 12/8

Neil Kazaross:  53 2/0

Neil Kazaross wins four points and wins the match.

Filed Under: Match #8, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-02

July 12, 2018 by Online Match Editor 5 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 9

11 point match

pip: 151
score: 6

is USBGF Members

XGID=---BBBBA--A--A--A----AacB-:1:1:1:43:6:7:0:11:10

to play 43

Rollout¹

16/12 10/7

eq: -2.304

Player:
Opponent:

3.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.73% (G:85.44% B:82.97%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.306...-2.303) - [52.2%]
Duration: 26 minutes 22 seconds

Rollout¹

21/17 10/7

eq: -2.304 (0.000)

Player:
Opponent:

3.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.75% (G:85.44% B:81.73%)

Conf.: ± 0.002 (-2.306...-2.303) - [47.8%]
Duration: 26 minutes 27 seconds

Rollout¹

24/20 10/7

eq: -2.342 (-0.038)

Player:
Opponent:

2.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.20% (G:86.99% B:78.32%)

Conf.: ± 0.001 (-2.343...-2.341) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 11 seconds

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [16] 16/12 10/7 [ 6] 21/17 10/7 [ 5] 24/20 10/7

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/12 10/7

We need to hit to win or just get off the gammon. So we should play as though we will get a shot and hit it. Therefore we should play 10/7, making a 5 prime. After that we need to make the 8 point so we should play 16/12, bringing another checker within range to make it.

If this were for money we should try to get off the backgammon and play 24/20 21/18.



Neil Kazaross:  52 3/0 2/0

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 4

11 point match

pip: 144
score: 6

is USBGF Members

XGID=---BBBBB----AA-------A-bB-:1:1:1:65:6:7:0:11:10

to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #8, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-07-01

July 11, 2018 by Online Match Editor 5 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 13

11 point match

pip: 157
score: 6

is USBGF Members

XGID=---BBBB-A-A-----A-A--AcbB-:1:1:1:51:6:7:0:11:10

to play 51

Rollout¹

21/20 18/13

eq: -1.604

Player:
Opponent:

14.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.49% (G:61.81% B:59.44%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.607...-1.600) - [52.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes

Rollout¹

18/13 8/7

eq: -1.604 (-0.001)

Player:
Opponent:

14.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.54% (G:61.74% B:59.25%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.608...-1.601) - [37.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes

Rollout¹

16/11 8/7

eq: -1.606 (-0.002)

Player:
Opponent:

14.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.58% (G:61.76% B:59.31%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.610...-1.603) - [9.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes

Rollout¹

18/13 16/15

eq: -1.609 (-0.005)

Player:
Opponent:

14.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.59% (G:61.97% B:59.61%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.612...-1.605) - [0.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes

Rollout¹

18/17 16/11

eq: -1.613 (-0.009)

Player:
Opponent:

14.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.64% (G:62.15% B:59.51%)

Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.616...-1.609) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes

Rollout²

21/15

eq: -1.618 (-0.015)

Player:
Opponent:

14.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.75% (G:62.27% B:57.36%)

Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.627...-1.610) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 24 seconds

Rollout²

21/16 8/7

eq: -1.622 (-0.019)

Player:
Opponent:

14.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.98% (G:62.20% B:59.11%)

Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.632...-1.613) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 02 seconds

Rollout²

21/20 10/5

eq: -1.659 (-0.055)

Player:
Opponent:

13.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.49% (G:63.38% B:60.44%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.667...-1.650) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds

Rollout²

16/15 10/5

eq: -1.662 (-0.058)

Player:
Opponent:

13.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.54% (G:63.43% B:60.84%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.670...-1.653) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 10 seconds

10.

Rollout²

24/19 8/7

eq: -1.741 (-0.138)

Player:
Opponent:

11.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.18% (G:65.66% B:53.83%)

Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.750...-1.733) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 58 seconds

11.

Rollout²

24/18

eq: -1.745 (-0.141)

Player:
Opponent:

11.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.25% (G:65.71% B:50.33%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.752...-1.737) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 37 seconds

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2264756
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [14] 18/13 8/7 [ 3] 24/19 8/7 [ 2] 16/11 8/7 [ 2] 21/20 18/13 [ 2] 24/18 [ 1] 21/20 10/5 [ 1] 18/13 16/15 [ 1] 16/15 10/5 [ 1] 21/16 8/7 [ 1] 21/15



Neil Kazaross:  51 3/2 3/0

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 9

11 point match

pip: 151
score: 6

is USBGF Members

XGID=---BBBBA--A--A--A----AacB-:1:1:1:43:6:7:0:11:10

to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #8, OLM

USBGF OLM 2018-06-30

July 11, 2018 by Online Match Editor 6 Comments

[Previous]

[Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 18

11 point match

pip: 166
score: 6

is USBGF Members

XGID=---BBAB-A-AA----A-A---dcC-:1:1:1:63:6:7:0:11:10

to play 63

Rollout¹

24/21 11/5

eq: -1.857

Player:
Opponent:

10.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.61% (G:70.21% B:63.63%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.860...-1.854) - [75.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes

Rollout¹

24/18 16/13

eq: -1.862 (-0.004)

Player:
Opponent:

10.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.69% (G:70.35% B:60.98%)

Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.865...-1.858) - [2.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes

Rollout²

24/18 8/5

eq: -1.862 (-0.005)

Player:
Opponent:

10.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.69% (G:70.35% B:61.32%)

Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.869...-1.855) - [9.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 49 seconds

Rollout²

11/5 10/7

eq: -1.862 (-0.005)

Player:
Opponent:

10.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.71% (G:70.27% B:63.61%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.871...-1.854) - [12.6%]
Duration: 18 minutes 53 seconds

Rollout²

16/13 11/5

eq: -1.869 (-0.012)

Player:
Opponent:

10.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
89.89% (G:70.56% B:63.80%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.878...-1.861) - [0.3%]
Duration: 18 minutes 45 seconds

Rollout²

18/12 8/5

eq: -1.885 (-0.028)

Player:
Opponent:

9.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.15% (G:71.10% B:66.16%)

Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.893...-1.877) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 52 seconds

Rollout²

24/21 24/18

eq: -2.026 (-0.168)

Player:
Opponent:

8.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.89% (G:76.55% B:42.13%)

Conf.: ± 0.006 (-2.032...-2.019) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote: [16] 24/21 11/5 [ 8] 24/18 8/5 [ 5] 11/5 10/7 [ 2] 18/12 8/5 [ 2] 24/21 24/18 [ 1] 24/18 16/13 [ 1] 16/13 11/5

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 11/5

We need to cover the blot on our 5 point with the 6 or 3. We do not much care about whether we are backgammoned as long as we are not gammoned. We are highly likely to be gammoned if we lose, so we need to focus on ensuring we win. We will only win if we get a shot, hit a shot and contain the hit checker. We cannot control the first two parts of what we need to do but we can focus build the best board / prime that we can.

I like leaving the checker on the 8 point where it is and playing 11/5. If we can make the 8 point we can block Neil in. After that we can either play 16/13 for better coverage or there may be times when we want to only have 1 checker on our 1 point to 24/21. In a chouette I would go with how my teammates felt but probably I would play 24/21.



Neil Kazaross:  42 3/0 2/0

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 7
pip: 13

11 point match

pip: 157
score: 6

is USBGF Members

XGID=---BBBB-A-A-----A-A--AcbB-:1:1:1:51:6:7:0:11:10

to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #8, OLM