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USBGF OLM 2020-01-21

January 23, 2020 by 6 Comments
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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 179
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---bD-aaabb-bb-BA:1:1:1:21:10:6:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 24/23eq: -0.787
Player:
Opponent:		26.76% (G:4.57% B:0.54%)
73.24% (G:26.06% B:1.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.792...-0.782) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5* eq: -0.818 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		32.11% (G:6.15% B:0.71%)
67.89% (G:35.19% B:2.37%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.825...-0.811) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 8/7eq: -0.967 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:		26.71% (G:4.49% B:0.41%)
73.29% (G:38.51% B:2.52%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.975...-0.959) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 59 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.996 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:		23.29% (G:3.60% B:0.47%)
76.71% (G:36.01% B:2.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.003...-0.990) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 16 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/24 8/6eq: -1.038 (-0.251)
Player:
Opponent:		21.45% (G:4.09% B:0.37%)
78.55% (G:36.22% B:2.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.044...-1.032) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 19 seconds
6.Rollout1Bar/24 13/11eq: -1.058 (-0.271)
Player:
Opponent:		22.27% (G:3.64% B:0.54%)
77.73% (G:38.28% B:2.67%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.065...-1.052) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19961297
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/23 24/23 (coin flip!)
[19] b/23 6/5*
[ 2] b/24 13/11

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 24/23

First we ask ourselves what we would do for money, and the best play is bar/23 6/5. We want to avoid putting a third checker on the 24 point at all costs.

But we are not at a normal match score, we are 5 away 1 away Post Crawford and we own a Dead cube on 2. If Neil wins a Gammon we are at DMP, and if he wins a Backgammon, he wins the match. For those of you who remember the original “Lost in Space” television series, this is a “danger Will Robinson” moment. We need to avoid losing a Gammon so we are playing a Gammon Save game. And also a Backgammon Save game. So, the best safety against being Gammon is to get an Anchor and Bar/23 24/23 gives us a anchor – the best anchor on offer.

If we do not take the anchor then what is the alternative? Going into full Backgame mode? That will lose us a gammon or backgammon. Time to make the best move to minimise the points we will lose, while retaining some winning changes. We need to live to fight another day.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: b/23 24/23

The choice between the recommended defensive play b/23 24/23 and the offensive bar/23 6/5* is difficult here. In a money game, the latter would be better because Neil has no builder on his 6 point and his 5 point open. If we get hit we are still not out of the game and if things go well we can win a redoubled game.

Since we are only 1 away neither our own gammon chances nor the possible re-cube count. What counts are Neil’s gammons which will increase his match equity considerably. This is why match sores like this one are called gammon save and why we should – when in doubt – play gammon save.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 176
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---bD-aaabb-bbBA-:1:1:-1:62:10:6:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout120/14 10/8eq: +0.753
Player:
Opponent:		72.50% (G:24.66% B:1.03%)
27.50% (G:5.23% B:0.57%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.748...+0.758) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 10/8eq: +0.719 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		71.39% (G:23.63% B:1.02%)
28.61% (G:5.76% B:0.60%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.714...+0.725) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 10/8eq: +0.704 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:		69.02% (G:25.87% B:1.26%)
30.98% (G:6.83% B:0.67%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.698...+0.710) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 47 seconds
4.Rollout120/14 8/6eq: +0.683 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:		68.88% (G:24.92% B:1.03%)
31.12% (G:6.59% B:0.77%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.679...+0.688) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19961297
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/14 10/8.

I’d like to make my 5 point, but here I have to take the 8 point as a consolation prize. Then I’ll try to get a checker towards home.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 176
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-C--abD--abbb-bbBA-:1:1:1:65:10:6:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 1/24 300a Eastern time.

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-20

January 21, 2020 by 5 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 177
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C-a-cDb--b-c-bA-AA:1:1:1:61:10:6:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/18eq: -0.569
Player:
Opponent:		36.78% (G:10.96% B:1.74%)
63.22% (G:24.31% B:1.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.575...-0.563) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 22/16eq: -0.612 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		33.52% (G:9.02% B:1.37%)
66.48% (G:22.76% B:1.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.617...-0.606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24 13/7eq: -0.624 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		34.23% (G:8.48% B:1.08%)
65.77% (G:23.90% B:1.48%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.630...-0.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19961297
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] b/18
[ 7] b/24 13/7
[ 6] b/24 22/16

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/18

We need an anchor, and we need it now.

  • Bar/24 13/7 does not potentially get an anchor and leaves a double shot.
  • Bar/24 22/16 leaves a triple shot and does not start an anchor.
  • Bar/18 leaves a triple shot but it does start an anchor and so is the best move.

Morris asked a question: Why isn’t the value of a gammon this game the same that the value of a gammon will be next game if Neil wins a single game this game?

Julian Fetterlein wrote some articles about a simple way of classifying the value of Gammons. If a Gammon gets you to Crawford then it is worth 0.5, if a Gammon wins the match for you, then it is worth 1. At 5 away 1 away with the cube on 2, a Gammon gets you to Crawford so it is worth 0.5, but after a single win so that the score is 3 away 1 away with the cube is on 2, then a win, wins the match so the Gammon value should be around 1. I hope that helps Morris.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 170
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C-a-cDb--bAc-bA-A-:1:1:-1:43:10:6:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout111/7* 6/3* eq: +0.557
Player:
Opponent:		62.89% (G:23.88% B:1.20%)
37.11% (G:11.90% B:2.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.550...+0.564) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
2.Rollout111/7* 7/4eq: +0.428 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:		59.79% (G:18.69% B:0.86%)
40.21% (G:10.85% B:1.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.422...+0.434) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 6/3* eq: +0.413 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:		59.87% (G:17.70% B:0.68%)
40.13% (G:10.14% B:1.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.408...+0.418) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
4.Rollout124/21 11/7* eq: +0.400 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:		58.75% (G:18.25% B:0.78%)
41.25% (G:12.69% B:1.94%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.394...+0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
5.Rollout113/10 11/7* eq: +0.399 (-0.159)
Player:
Opponent:		57.91% (G:19.34% B:0.91%)
42.09% (G:14.82% B:2.90%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.392...+0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
6.Rollout111/8 11/7* eq: +0.395 (-0.162)
Player:
Opponent:		58.49% (G:18.51% B:0.71%)
41.51% (G:12.79% B:1.61%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.390...+0.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
7.Rollout115/11 6/3* eq: +0.388 (-0.170)
Player:
Opponent:		57.89% (G:18.99% B:0.68%)
42.11% (G:11.29% B:1.46%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.382...+0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
8.Rollout113/9 6/3* eq: +0.367 (-0.190)
Player:
Opponent:		56.19% (G:19.59% B:0.90%)
43.81% (G:15.73% B:3.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.361...+0.373) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
9.Rollout115/8eq: +0.342 (-0.215)
Player:
Opponent:		57.82% (G:15.57% B:0.48%)
42.18% (G:10.11% B:1.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.337...+0.347) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19961297
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/7* 6/3*.

Now attacking looks clearly best as I have nine in the zone and am diversified and can put two checkers on the bar.


USBGF Members: 41 b/24

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 179
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C-a-cDa--bab-ba-BA:1:1:-1:53:10:6:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout113/10 8/3eq: +0.674
Player:
Opponent:		66.19% (G:27.37% B:1.60%)
33.81% (G:9.48% B:1.83%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.668...+0.681) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
2.Rollout111/3eq: +0.639 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		65.69% (G:25.55% B:1.42%)
34.31% (G:7.88% B:1.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.633...+0.644) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 8/3eq: +0.633 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:		65.90% (G:25.08% B:1.26%)
34.10% (G:8.78% B:1.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.627...+0.639) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19961297
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 8/3.

8/3 covers nicely and then at this score, I think I should push for the gammon with 13/10. My goal is to make my 5 point and failing that I want to make my 7 and 8 points and I also want to try to win any blot hitting contest that could happen on my 7 or 8 point.


USBGF Members: 43 no play

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 179
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C-a-bDaa-aab-bb-BA:1:1:-1:64:10:6:0:11:10
to play 64

1.xgRollout115/11 13/7eq: +0.877
Player:
Opponent:		72.65% (G:33.22% B:1.91%)
27.35% (G:5.62% B:0.96%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.871...+0.884) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 53 seconds
2.playedRollout115/9 11/7eq: +0.860 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		72.76% (G:31.18% B:2.01%)
27.24% (G:5.65% B:0.82%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.854...+0.866) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
3.Rollout124/20 13/7eq: +0.851 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		73.91% (G:29.59% B:1.54%)
26.09% (G:5.05% B:0.49%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.845...+0.858) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
4.Rollout113/9 13/7eq: +0.848 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		71.79% (G:32.06% B:1.92%)
28.21% (G:6.52% B:1.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.841...+0.854) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 22 seconds
5.Rollout124/20 15/9eq: +0.847 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		74.38% (G:28.68% B:1.42%)
25.62% (G:4.90% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.841...+0.853) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19961297
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/9 11/7.

I looked deeply at a few plays and cannot seem to find anything better than the routine 15/9 11/7. This doesn’t leave that many meaningful shots since 54 is duped to make the Golden Anchor.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 137
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 179
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---bD-aaabb-bb-BA:1:1:1:21:10:6:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-19

January 20, 2020 by 7 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---b-d-b-AA-:0:0:-1:00:10:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 56.93% (G:18.94% B:0.68%) 56.94% (G:19.02% B:0.69%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 43.07% (G:12.69% B:1.43%) 43.06% (G:12.84% B:1.44%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.161 +0.425
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.423 (-0.002)±0.002 (+0.421..+0.425)
played Double/Take:+0.425±0.002 (+0.423..+0.427)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.575)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:88.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 hours 13 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[43] Take
[ 2] Drop

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

At 1 away Post Crawford this is a mandatory take. As Gary pointed out, if we alter Neil’s score by 1 point either way, this would be Double / Pass as we should then use our Free Drop.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---b-d-b-AA-:1:1:-1:41:10:6:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/2* 2/1* eq: +0.330
Player:
Opponent:		54.43% (G:19.92% B:0.73%)
45.57% (G:14.55% B:2.26%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.325...+0.335) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/9eq: +0.276 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		53.73% (G:16.81% B:0.52%)
46.27% (G:15.74% B:2.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.271...+0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.Rollout113/8eq: +0.254 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:		53.13% (G:16.11% B:0.46%)
46.87% (G:14.63% B:1.77%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.249...+0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94618352
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/2*/1*.

The right play for money is to hit two checkers, I and expect that with me wanting a gammon that hitting two is even more correct.


USBGF Members: 61 b/24*

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 180
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab----E-CA--eD---b-c-b--AA:1:1:-1:52:10:6:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 13/11eq: +0.317
Player:
Opponent:		55.04% (G:17.76% B:0.68%)
44.96% (G:15.49% B:2.60%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.312...+0.323) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: +0.288 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		54.15% (G:16.97% B:0.59%)
45.85% (G:15.80% B:2.71%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.282...+0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 24/22eq: +0.286 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		54.57% (G:16.04% B:0.58%)
45.43% (G:14.70% B:2.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.280...+0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94618352
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 13/11.

B/20 13/11 looks like the natural play. I don’t mind complications and blot hitting contests when I trail in the race and am also seeking a gammon.


USBGF Members: 64 no play
Neil Kazaross: 62 24/16*
USBGF Members: 63 b/22

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 165
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 177
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-Ca--dDa--b-c-bA-AA:1:1:-1:21:10:6:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout116/15 13/11eq: +0.460
Player:
Opponent:		61.35% (G:18.70% B:0.87%)
38.65% (G:10.45% B:1.37%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.457...+0.462) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout16/3* eq: +0.446 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		59.74% (G:20.27% B:0.90%)
40.26% (G:12.87% B:2.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.443...+0.448) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout224/23 13/11eq: +0.443 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		61.34% (G:17.44% B:0.79%)
38.66% (G:10.64% B:1.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.437...+0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94618352
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94618352
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/15 13/11.

It is important to see that while my Gammon Value will be 1 next game it is only slightly more than 1/2 this game. This causes me to think that the forceful 6/3* may not be best as that play is very loose and hard to follow up. I prefer the slower approach of 16/15 13/11, duplicating 3’s and 1’s and making the 11 point which is always useful when one’s 5 point is open and gives me safe builders. Just because I am not playing to attack this turn doesn’t mean that I won’t attack later. My choice also leaves them a quite poor 65.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 177
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C-a-cDb--b-c-bA-AA:1:1:1:61:10:6:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-18

January 19, 2020 by 7 Comments
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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:41:10:6:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.424
Player:
Opponent:		43.04% (G:12.60% B:1.55%)
56.96% (G:18.94% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.426...-0.422) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 47 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: -0.436 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		42.46% (G:11.83% B:1.61%)
57.54% (G:19.35% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.438...-0.434) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 03 minutes
3.Rollout213/8eq: -0.464 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		41.50% (G:12.76% B:1.85%)
58.50% (G:19.63% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.469...-0.459) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] 24/23 13/9
[ 3] 24/23 24/20
[ 2] 13/8

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---b-d-b-AA-:0:0:-1:00:10:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-17

January 19, 2020 by 2 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 39
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 93
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBCBB------------bb-dBe-:0:0:1:43:10:5:1:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout15/1 4/1eq: -0.878
Player:
Opponent:		13.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.40% (G:11.87% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.879...-0.876) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds
2.playedRollout16/2 4/1eq: -0.884 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		13.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.78% (G:11.79% B:0.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.886...-0.883) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 07 seconds
3.Rollout15/2 5/1eq: -0.897 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		12.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.00% (G:10.86% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.899...-0.896) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds
4.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.917 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		11.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.78% (G:11.18% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.918...-0.915) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 6/2 4/1
[14] 5/1 4/1
[ 4] 5/2 5/1
[ 2] 6/3 6/2

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 5/1 4/1

Neil could leave a shot next roll so if we hit, we would still like to be able to have a 6 point board at some point. So, we would rather leave a blot than a gap. This means that part of our roll is 4/1 with the 3.

With the 4, we could play either 6/2 or 5/1. 5/1 has the advantage that if Neil enters with 51: Bar/20* he will have to leave another blot in his board. Take the sequence we play 5/1 4/1, Neil rolls 41: 6/1, we hit 64: 23/19*/13. Now Neil rolls 51: Bar/20* 3/2* and we have a direct shot from the bar. Although this may not happen a lot, the variations add up and would push us to 5/1 4/1.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 6/2 4/1

Nothing better out there: First we it a shot, Neil will dance, maybe twice; then we close the remaining blot on the 6 point; that´s the plan, although we should avoid a gammon at this score; but winning is even more important here.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 39
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 86
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDBBBA------------bb-dBe-:0:0:-1:22:10:5:1:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout16/4(2) 5/3(2)eq: +1.036
Player:
Opponent:		96.33% (G:8.65% B:0.07%)
3.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.035...+1.037) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13.8 seconds
2.Rollout16/4(2) 3/1(2)eq: +0.932 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:		91.46% (G:8.13% B:0.02%)
8.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.931...+0.933) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.2 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4(2) 5/3(2).

6/4(2) 5/3(2) is automatic.


USBGF Members: 61 23/16
Neil Kazaross: 11 3/2*(2) 1/0(2)
USBGF Members: 41 no play
Neil Kazaross: 42 4/2 4/0
USBGF Members: 52 b/18
Neil Kazaross: 43 3/0(2)
USBGF Members: 65 18/12 16/11
Neil Kazaross: 63 3/0(2)
USBGF Members: 42 12/6
Neil Kazaross: 31 2/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 42 11/5
Neil Kazaross: 63

Neil Kazaross wins one point, and the USBGF Members lead 1-away(PC)/5-away.


Neil Kazaross: 42 8/4 6/4

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:41:10:6:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-16

January 16, 2020 by 1 Comment
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 97
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCBBBA-----------cc-cBd-:0:0:1:31:10:5:1:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout17/4 3/2eq: -0.851
Player:
Opponent:		14.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.71% (G:10.82% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.852...-0.849) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout17/4 2/1eq: -0.855 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		14.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.78% (G:11.03% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.857...-0.853) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout17/3eq: -0.872 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		13.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.54% (G:11.17% B:0.18%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.874...-0.871) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds
4.Rollout14/1 3/2eq: -0.888 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		13.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.20% (G:13.01% B:0.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.890...-0.887) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 16 seconds
5.Rollout17/6 4/1eq: -0.892 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		12.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
87.27% (G:11.61% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.893...-0.890) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds
6.Rollout15/1eq: -0.897 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		13.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.82% (G:12.68% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.898...-0.895) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 7/4 3/2
[ 4] 4/1 3/2
[ 2] 7/4 2/1
[ 1] 5/1

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/4 3/2

We need to keep our board as strong as possible for as long as possible.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 7/4 3/2

7/4 3/2 is the best play because it brings a full 6 board. This means that if we hit we win (almost) 100%. At the same time we have to run sooner or later anyway in order to save the gammon. Next roll Neil will have to do away with at least one spare checker in his higher points so the threat of getting hit without getting a shot is low and running probably will be best play next roll anyway, even if we do not have to leave a shot on the 23 point.

In general relinquishing a homeboard-point and burying checkers in holding/backgames is almost always wrong. It reduces the winning chances once you have hit considerably since the only game plan is to close out the checker that we have hit. So saving a 6 must bring considerable more shots what it does not because the chances of getting more shots require first that we roll a six and second that Neil rolls something that does not leave a shot after we leave the 2 point but would leave a shot when we hold the 2 point. I do not see any such sequence at first glance and we may call the probability of such sequence to happen “x”. If you are ambitious you might look out for a sequence yourself. I hope we all agree that it is not very likely to happen The formula Is: 11/36 (we roll a six) multiplied by “x” ( “x” would be pretty low) = additional shot chance by saving a six.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 93
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBCBB------------cc-cBd-:0:0:-1:43:10:5:1:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout16/3 5/1eq: +0.772
Player:
Opponent:		84.53% (G:6.48% B:0.07%)
15.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.771...+0.774) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
2.Rollout15/1 3/Offeq: +0.653 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:		77.43% (G:8.25% B:0.09%)
22.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.651...+0.654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3 5/1.

6/3 is clearly much safer.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 39
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 93
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBCBB------------bb-dBe-:0:0:1:43:10:5:1:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-15

January 15, 2020 by 4 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 50
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 106
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCB-----------cc-dBe-:0:0:1:54:10:5:1:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout17/3 6/1eq: -0.728
Player:
Opponent:		17.60% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
82.40% (G:6.34% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.729...-0.726) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout17/3 7/2eq: -0.746 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		16.52% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
83.48% (G:6.08% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.748...-0.745) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds
3.Rollout17/2 5/1eq: -0.751 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		16.73% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
83.27% (G:6.74% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.752...-0.749) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 29 seconds
4.Rollout123/14eq: -0.751 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		14.84% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
85.16% (G:3.78% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.752...-0.750) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 7/3 6/1
[ 8] 23/14
[ 6] 7/3 7/2

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/3 6/1

If we run 23/14 then Neil will have three builders aimed at us with which to attack. For this reason we should keep the 23 point anchor. If we move Neil’s spare checker on his 6 point to his 5 point, reducing the number of active spares to two, then we might be more inclined to run but I think we should still say.

We want our board to be as strong as possible.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 7/3 6/1

Running off the 23 point does not win the game. It provides Neil with the opportunity to point on or pick and pass our remaining checker on the 23 point. If we stay and taking into consideration the additional safety of the anchor we probably do not lose (considerable) more gammons but we win more games because Neil cannot point or pick and pass with some rolls. Thus we improve our board by slotting the 1 point.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 50
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 97
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCBBBA-----------cc-dBe-:0:0:-1:31:10:5:1:11:10
to play 31

1.playedXG Roller++3/Off 1/Offeq: +0.852
Player:
Opponent:		87.64% (G:7.88% B:0.10%)
12.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++6/5 3/Offeq: +0.776 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:		85.52% (G:5.19% B:0.04%)
14.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++6/3 1/Offeq: +0.729 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:		83.20% (G:5.15% B:0.04%)
16.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 3/0 1/0.

3/0 1/0 should win more games and gammons and is safe for now.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 97
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCBBBA-----------cc-cBd-:0:0:1:31:10:5:1:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-14

January 14, 2020 by 3 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 57
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBBAAA-------a-cd-bBe-:0:0:1:31:10:5:1:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout19/6 8/7eq: -0.683
Player:
Opponent:		19.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.10% (G:6.43% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.685...-0.681) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout19/5eq: -0.688 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		19.85% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
80.15% (G:6.76% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.690...-0.687) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 35 seconds
3.Rollout18/4eq: -0.692 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		19.68% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
80.32% (G:6.81% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.694...-0.691) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds
4.Rollout18/5 7/6eq: -0.693 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		19.44% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
80.56% (G:6.46% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.694...-0.691) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds
5.Rollout19/6 7/6eq: -0.698 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		19.06% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
80.94% (G:6.29% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.700...-0.697) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] 9/6 8/7
[ 9] 8/5 7/6
[ 1] 9/6 7/6

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/6 8/7

We may get a shot next turn, particularly if Neil rolls 66, 44 or 64. We have the chance to make a prime with 8/7, then we want a checker within range of our 1 point so 9/6.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 57
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 106
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCB---------a-cd-bBe-:0:0:-1:52:10:5:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout18/3 5/3eq: +0.720
Player:
Opponent:		82.08% (G:6.19% B:0.06%)
17.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.718...+0.721) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout18/6 5/Offeq: +0.695 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		80.64% (G:6.53% B:0.08%)
19.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.694...+0.697) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout18/1eq: +0.652 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		79.16% (G:5.46% B:0.03%)
20.84% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.650...+0.654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 5/3.

Since I need some spares on my 3 point for later issues, 8/3 5/3 looks best to me.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 50
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 106
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBCB-----------cc-dBe-:0:0:1:54:10:5:1:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-13

January 13, 2020 by 4 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 64
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 118
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBB-A--A-A---b-cd-bBd-:0:0:1:22:10:5:1:11:10
to play 22

1.xgRollout113/7 8/6eq: -0.516
Player:
Opponent:		27.59% (G:1.00% B:0.04%)
72.41% (G:5.36% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.517...-0.515) - [99.7%]
Duration: 34 minutes 08 seconds
2.playedRollout113/7 11/9eq: -0.517 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		27.50% (G:1.03% B:0.07%)
72.50% (G:5.34% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.518...-0.517) - [0.3%]
Duration: 31 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout211/7 8/4eq: -0.522 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		27.40% (G:1.07% B:0.03%)
72.60% (G:5.58% B:0.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.524...-0.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout211/5 8/6eq: -0.524 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		27.16% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
72.84% (G:5.32% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.526...-0.522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout213/9 8/4eq: -0.527 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		27.02% (G:0.89% B:0.03%)
72.98% (G:5.35% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.529...-0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 54 seconds
6.Rollout213/5eq: -0.527 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		26.90% (G:0.98% B:0.02%)
73.10% (G:5.18% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.529...-0.526) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 23 seconds
7.Rollout213/9 11/9 8/6eq: -0.530 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		26.77% (G:0.97% B:0.03%)
73.23% (G:5.20% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.532...-0.528) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 13/7 11/9
[15] 13/7 8/6
[ 6] 11/5 8/6
[ 2] 13/5
[ 1] 23/21(2) 13/9

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 8/6

The main part of this roll is 13/7.

Then we have to decide between 11/9 giving us more chances to make the 7 point and a full prime or 8/6 getting another crossover which is important as Neil is at an even away score.

We should probably go with 8/6 as it aims another builder at our 1 point, for when we have hit a checker.


Neil Kazaross: 61 8/1

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 57
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 110
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBBAAA-------a-cd-bBe-:0:0:1:31:10:5:1:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-12

January 12, 2020 by 4 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 69
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 124
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBC-A--A-A---b-dd-bBc-:0:0:1:42:10:5:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout16/2 4/2eq: -0.602
Player:
Opponent:		24.58% (G:0.73% B:0.05%)
75.42% (G:7.37% B:0.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.604...-0.600) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout111/7 4/2eq: -0.618 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		24.63% (G:1.06% B:0.04%)
75.37% (G:8.78% B:0.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.620...-0.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout113/7eq: -0.625 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		24.12% (G:1.00% B:0.05%)
75.88% (G:8.53% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.627...-0.623) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 36 seconds
4.Rollout113/9 4/2eq: -0.631 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		24.00% (G:0.93% B:0.10%)
76.00% (G:8.81% B:0.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.633...-0.629) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 19 seconds
5.Rollout18/2eq: -0.635 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		24.12% (G:0.80% B:0.04%)
75.88% (G:9.32% B:0.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.637...-0.633) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds
6.Rollout111/7 8/6eq: -0.637 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		23.72% (G:0.69% B:0.01%)
76.28% (G:8.83% B:0.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.639...-0.635) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 08 seconds
7.Rollout111/5eq: -0.639 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		23.46% (G:0.66% B:0.00%)
76.54% (G:8.55% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.641...-0.637) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 6/2 4/2
[ 1] 13/7
[ 1] 13/11 8/4

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/2 4/2

We should just make the 2 point with 6/2 4/2.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 6/2 4/2

We still go for victory with our well timed 2 point game and thus we should make the 2 point.


Neil Kazaross: 65 6/1

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 64
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 118
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBBB-A--A-A---b-cd-bBd-:0:0:1:22:10:5:1:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-11

January 11, 2020 by 6 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 131
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBC-A------AAc-dc-bBc-:0:0:1:52:10:5:1:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout115/10 4/2eq: -0.608
Player:
Opponent:		24.66% (G:0.87% B:0.03%)
75.34% (G:8.01% B:0.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.609...-0.607) - [60.2%]
Duration: 46 minutes 38 seconds
2.Rollout116/11 4/2eq: -0.608 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		24.67% (G:0.83% B:0.03%)
75.33% (G:8.05% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.609...-0.607) - [39.8%]
Duration: 54 minutes 24 seconds
3.Rollout28/3 4/2eq: -0.621 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		24.25% (G:0.81% B:0.03%)
75.75% (G:8.40% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.623...-0.619) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 14 seconds
4.playedRollout216/11 15/13eq: -0.622 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		24.09% (G:0.91% B:0.03%)
75.91% (G:8.23% B:0.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.624...-0.620) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 57 seconds
5.Rollout216/14 15/10eq: -0.623 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		24.13% (G:0.83% B:0.01%)
75.87% (G:8.35% B:0.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.625...-0.621) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 44 seconds
6.Rollout215/8eq: -0.626 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		23.99% (G:0.86% B:0.05%)
76.01% (G:8.35% B:0.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.628...-0.624) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 24 seconds
7.Rollout216/9eq: -0.628 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		23.83% (G:0.77% B:0.05%)
76.17% (G:8.28% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.630...-0.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 16/11 15/13
[ 8] 15/10 4/2
[ 7] 16/11 4/2
[ 7] 15/8
[ 1] 8/3 4/2
[ 1] 16/11 8/6
[ 1] 23/18 8/6
[ 1] 16/14 8/3

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/11 4/2

We want to improve our board, so I would slot 4/2 then over the board I would have played 16/11.

However, with lots of time, I see that 15/10 is better because it adds 53 as a covering number but with 16/11 we are nine pips away and 63, 54 and 33 already cover. In the heat of the moment I would have missed the difference and played 16/11 as I would just take the rearmost checker I want to move, and moved it.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 124
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBC-A--A-A---c-dc-bBc-:0:0:-1:63:10:5:1:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout18/5eq: +0.629
Player:
Opponent:		76.66% (G:7.55% B:0.16%)
23.34% (G:0.68% B:0.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.627...+0.631) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout16/3eq: +0.565 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:		74.39% (G:6.13% B:0.13%)
25.61% (G:1.02% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.563...+0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5.

I see no reason to delay my bearin so 8/5 it is.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 69
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 124
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBC-A--A-A---b-dd-bBc-:0:0:1:42:10:5:1:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-10

January 10, 2020 by 6 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 90
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 142
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBC-A--------ccdcBbB--:0:0:1:65:10:5:1:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout121/16 21/15eq: -0.717
Player:
Opponent:		18.85% (G:0.86% B:0.05%)
81.15% (G:7.45% B:0.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.720...-0.715) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 52 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/1eq: -0.754 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		22.82% (G:1.02% B:0.02%)
77.18% (G:16.59% B:1.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.758...-0.751) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout121/16 8/2eq: -0.778 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:		21.02% (G:1.24% B:0.05%)
78.98% (G:15.61% B:1.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.781...-0.775) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout121/10eq: -0.783 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		20.68% (G:1.36% B:0.12%)
79.32% (G:15.45% B:0.93%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.785...-0.780) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout121/15 8/3eq: -0.793 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:		20.39% (G:1.25% B:0.04%)
79.61% (G:15.79% B:0.95%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.796...-0.790) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 21/16 21/15
[ 8] 8/2 6/1
[ 2] 21/10
[ 1] 21/16 8/2

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/16 21/15

If we leave both of our checkers on the 21 point we have to play 8/2 6/1 which leaves two inner board blots, which is too many.

If we run one checker from the 21 point, we will be attacked.

If we play 21/16 21/15, we reduce our Gammons and will play either a phantom 42 backgame or a 2 point anchor game. This has to be the correct move as the absolute minimum pip count we heed to play a 42 Backgame is 43 pips (according to Mochy). After the roll we have only 41 pips so this says abandon the Backgame and go now.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 21/16 21/15

We have a well-timed 2 point game and Neil has six points to clear including a gap In his board. Not too bad. Staying on the 21 point with one checker or 8/2 6/1 makes no sense due to our bad timing. Those plays and in particular 21/10 lose too many gammons.


Neil Kazaross: 66 7/1(3)

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 131
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBC-A------AAc-dc-bBc-:0:0:1:52:10:5:1:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-09

January 9, 2020 by 6 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 150
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBB--A---Aa--dccbBbB--:0:0:1:53:10:5:1:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout113/8 9/6eq: -0.658
Player:
Opponent:		25.79% (G:1.59% B:0.06%)
74.21% (G:13.69% B:0.76%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.661...-0.655) - [99.9%]
Duration: 18 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.665 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		25.54% (G:1.75% B:0.08%)
74.46% (G:13.87% B:0.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.669...-0.662) - [0.1%]
Duration: 16 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 4/1eq: -0.673 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		25.52% (G:1.52% B:0.04%)
74.48% (G:14.43% B:0.80%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.676...-0.669) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout19/1eq: -0.677 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		25.29% (G:1.42% B:0.03%)
74.71% (G:14.42% B:0.73%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.681...-0.674) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 46 seconds
5.Rollout113/10 9/4eq: -0.679 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		25.04% (G:1.80% B:0.13%)
74.96% (G:14.16% B:0.72%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.682...-0.676) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 13/8 9/6
[ 5] 13/5
[ 2] 9/1
[ 1] 13/8 4/1

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 9/6

The next point we want is our 2 point, and 13/8 9/6 aims three builders at our 3 point.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 13/8 9/6

Running off the 21 point is no option, so we choose the play that brings best distribution to slot/ make the 2 point next roll.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 142
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBC-A-----a--dccbBbB--:0:0:-1:62:10:5:1:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout111/5 8/6eq: +0.706
Player:
Opponent:		76.23% (G:14.27% B:0.75%)
23.77% (G:0.80% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.703...+0.709) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 7/5eq: +0.669 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		75.17% (G:13.02% B:0.60%)
24.83% (G:1.74% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.665...+0.672) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/5 8/6.

11/5 8/6 is flexible and safe.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 90
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 142
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBC-A--------ccdcBbB--:0:0:1:65:10:5:1:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-08

January 8, 2020 by 3 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 105
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 156
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACCB-----bB---cccbBbB--:0:0:1:42:10:5:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/9 5/3eq: -0.610
Player:
Opponent:		30.39% (G:2.35% B:0.14%)
69.61% (G:17.14% B:0.96%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.613...-0.606) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 4/2eq: -0.621 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		30.16% (G:2.48% B:0.33%)
69.84% (G:17.67% B:1.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.625...-0.617) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 58 seconds
3.Rollout113/7eq: -0.630 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		29.70% (G:2.09% B:0.12%)
70.30% (G:17.63% B:1.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.634...-0.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 32 seconds
4.Rollout113/11 13/9eq: -0.631 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		27.54% (G:2.13% B:0.13%)
72.46% (G:14.32% B:0.61%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.634...-0.627) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 51 seconds
5.Rollout16/2 5/3eq: -0.643 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		28.09% (G:2.41% B:0.16%)
71.91% (G:16.17% B:0.92%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.647...-0.640) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 33 seconds
6.Rollout16/2 4/2eq: -0.645 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		27.98% (G:2.19% B:0.15%)
72.02% (G:16.12% B:0.87%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.649...-0.641) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 09 seconds
7.Rollout15/1 3/1eq: -0.671 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		26.72% (G:2.28% B:0.06%)
73.28% (G:16.15% B:0.90%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.674...-0.667) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 13/9 5/3
[ 7] 13/11 13/9
[ 3] 5/1 3/1
[ 1] 6/2 4/2
[ 1] 13/7

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 105
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 150
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBB--A--bA---cccbBbB--:0:0:-1:52:10:5:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/11 13/8eq: +0.623
Player:
Opponent:		72.44% (G:13.76% B:0.88%)
27.56% (G:2.55% B:0.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.620...+0.627) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout18/3 7/5eq: +0.603 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		70.73% (G:14.86% B:0.60%)
29.27% (G:2.87% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.599...+0.606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout18/1eq: +0.592 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		69.53% (G:15.87% B:0.86%)
30.47% (G:3.46% B:0.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.588...+0.595) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 11 seconds
4.Rollout17/5 6/1eq: +0.581 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		69.24% (G:15.46% B:0.81%)
30.76% (G:3.24% B:0.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.577...+0.584) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 13/8.

I think it is best to leave only four non-fatal shots and come towards home.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 150
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCBB--A---Aa--dccbBbB--:0:0:1:53:10:5:1:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-07

January 7, 2020 by 4 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 168
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABCB-----bB--AdbccBaB--:0:0:1:33:10:5:1:11:10
to play 33

1.xgRollout116/7 13/10eq: -0.564
Player:
Opponent:		32.61% (G:3.32% B:0.24%)
67.39% (G:17.02% B:1.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.565...-0.562) - [70.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout113/7(2)eq: -0.565 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		33.18% (G:3.64% B:0.28%)
66.82% (G:17.97% B:1.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.566...-0.563) - [26.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
3.Rollout216/7 5/2eq: -0.568 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		32.22% (G:3.24% B:0.23%)
67.78% (G:16.70% B:0.97%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.572...-0.564) - [3.4%]
Duration: 24 minutes 49 seconds
4.playedRollout216/4eq: -0.577 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		31.57% (G:3.49% B:0.25%)
68.43% (G:16.44% B:0.95%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.581...-0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 19 seconds
5.Rollout216/10 6/3 5/2eq: -0.580 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		31.79% (G:3.04% B:0.49%)
68.21% (G:16.97% B:1.06%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.584...-0.575) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 24 seconds
6.Rollout216/10 5/2(2)eq: -0.586 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		31.11% (G:2.93% B:0.18%)
68.89% (G:16.39% B:1.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.590...-0.582) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 58 seconds
7.Rollout216/7 6/3eq: -0.594 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		30.48% (G:2.92% B:0.21%)
69.52% (G:16.07% B:0.87%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.598...-0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 00 second
8.Rollout213/10 13/7 5/2eq: -0.597 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		32.15% (G:2.79% B:0.20%)
67.85% (G:18.93% B:1.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.602...-0.593) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 56 seconds
9.Rollout216/10 13/10 5/2eq: -0.598 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		31.70% (G:3.08% B:0.21%)
68.30% (G:18.30% B:1.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.602...-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 54 seconds
10.Rollout216/10 13/10(2)eq: -0.602 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		29.54% (G:2.91% B:0.18%)
70.46% (G:15.19% B:0.98%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.606...-0.598) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 45 seconds
11.Rollout216/10 13/10 6/3eq: -0.602 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		31.19% (G:2.98% B:0.12%)
68.81% (G:17.78% B:1.18%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.606...-0.598) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 16/4
[ 8] 16/7 5/2
[ 3] 13/10 13/4
[ 3] 13/7(2)
[ 1] 16/10 13/10(2)
[ 1] 16/7 13/10

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/7 13/10

Large doubles kill Backgames, and I mean 66, 55 and 44 when I say large doubles. 33 is a not what we want but is survivable.

We have to move one of the checkers on our 13 point and leave the other one where it is – we can do this because of Neil’s blot on his 3 point. If we move this back to his 5 point then we should play 13/7(2). But here because of that blot, we can afford to leave one checker on our 13 point to make it hard for Neil to play only one checker from his 13 point.

So, I think we should play 16/7 13/10. We then have lots of covers for our 3 point blot, and the 7 point slotted.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 13/7(2)

We are in a backgame and this roll does not offer any exit. So we should play 13/7(2) to improve our board. I asked myself why XG likes 16/7 13/10 so much. Maybe because it is more flexible or if Neil will be forced to hit, getting hit on the 13 point brings more timing than getting hit on the 16 point.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 156
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACCB-----bB---dbccBaB--:0:0:-1:21:10:5:1:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout18/7 5/3eq: +0.626
Player:
Opponent:		71.29% (G:15.80% B:0.91%)
28.71% (G:2.71% B:0.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.623...+0.630) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout16/3eq: +0.608 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		70.48% (G:15.60% B:0.98%)
29.52% (G:2.74% B:0.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.604...+0.611) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/7 5/3.

This play is safe and flexible.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 105
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 156
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACCB-----bB---cccbBbB--:0:0:1:42:10:5:1:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-06

January 6, 2020 by 6 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 177
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABCB----abB---cbdcB-B-A:0:0:1:54:10:5:1:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.533
Player:
Opponent:		36.53% (G:4.82% B:0.38%)
63.47% (G:20.79% B:1.41%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.538...-0.529) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: -0.599 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		34.52% (G:4.73% B:0.46%)
65.48% (G:22.74% B:1.73%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.604...-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[44] b/16
[ 1] b/21 6/1

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/16

According to an article written by Mochy, with a 24 Backgame you need at least 43 pips of timing and after this roll we will have 51 pips of timing, so our Backgame just became feasible.

We need to keep our midpoint and stay flexible so bar/16 has to be correct. If hit we could enter badly with say 61 and then have to give up our midpoint but that is the future, for now bar/16.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: b/16

Jump the prime to avoid crunching with anti jokers or after a series of small rolls. It also increases contact: Neil might be forced to hit which improves our timing or he might even leave a shot.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 168
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABCB----abB--AcbdcB-B--:0:0:-1:63:10:5:1:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout114/8 6/3eq: +0.495
Player:
Opponent:		63.85% (G:17.16% B:0.93%)
36.15% (G:5.37% B:0.58%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.493...+0.496) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 43 minutes
2.Rollout114/5eq: +0.488 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		63.92% (G:16.51% B:0.95%)
36.08% (G:4.48% B:0.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.486...+0.490) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 11 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/8 6/3.

I have two choices for my 3. The safe 8/5 or the more enterprising 6/3. I prefer taking some risk with 6/3 since it looks like their backgame has some timing now. If they hit me they break their anchor and I may be able to counterattack from the bar, or their timing will now be messes up. If they don’t hit me, hopefully I can cover the 3 point without creating a new blot. It is the fact that some of my covering rolls expose another checker that causes me to pause and take another look at 6/3 but it just seems thematic here so I will play it as making the 3 point clearly helps my position and gammon chances.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 168
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABCB-----bB--AdbccBaB--:0:0:1:33:10:5:1:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-05

January 5, 2020 by 5 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 168
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-aB--bB---cbdcB-B--:0:0:1:43:10:5:1:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout19/5 6/3eq: -0.567
Player:
Opponent:		32.45% (G:4.67% B:0.46%)
67.55% (G:16.99% B:1.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.571...-0.563) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout19/2eq: -0.590 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		31.67% (G:4.91% B:0.63%)
68.33% (G:17.56% B:1.25%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.594...-0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 15 seconds
3.Rollout16/2 5/2eq: -0.595 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		30.90% (G:5.08% B:0.55%)
69.10% (G:16.76% B:1.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.599...-0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.596 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		30.11% (G:3.57% B:0.17%)
69.89% (G:15.60% B:0.94%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.600...-0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 25 seconds
5.Rollout113/9 6/3eq: -0.598 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		31.97% (G:3.76% B:0.15%)
68.03% (G:18.70% B:1.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.602...-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 25 seconds
6.Rollout19/6 9/5eq: -0.609 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:		29.93% (G:4.24% B:0.21%)
70.07% (G:16.39% B:0.92%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.613...-0.605) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 9/5 6/3
[12] 9/6 9/5
[ 2] 13/10 13/9
[ 2] 6/2 5/2
[ 1] 13/10 9/5
[ 1] 13/9 6/3

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/5 6/3

If we do end up playing a backgame we need to keep our mid-point, it is our “lifeline” to quote Kit Woolsey.

When I saw this my gut instinct was to play 9/5 6/3. Then I looked at the reasons for the move – it slots the next point in order, it keeps the mid-point, it gives us three builders for the now slotted 3 point and it keeps the pressure on Neil’s blot on our 8 point. So, I will go with my gut instinct.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 9/5 6/3

Do not worry about leaving shots. Now we have to play the backgame and improvement of our board has first priority.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 161
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABCB-aA--bB---cbdcB-B--:0:0:-1:21:10:5:1:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout117/16* 16/14eq: +0.572
Player:
Opponent:		64.71% (G:21.86% B:1.93%)
35.29% (G:4.17% B:0.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.568...+0.577) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout117/14eq: +0.546 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		66.54% (G:16.96% B:1.21%)
33.46% (G:6.22% B:0.37%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.542...+0.551) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout117/16* 8/6eq: +0.546 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		62.97% (G:22.49% B:1.95%)
37.03% (G:5.51% B:0.33%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.541...+0.551) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 38 seconds
4.Rollout117/16* 13/11eq: +0.540 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		62.50% (G:22.75% B:1.91%)
37.50% (G:6.35% B:0.78%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.534...+0.545) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout117/16* 5/3eq: +0.535 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		62.13% (G:22.98% B:1.91%)
37.87% (G:8.84% B:1.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.530...+0.540) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 07 seconds
6.Rollout117/15 8/7eq: +0.533 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		66.01% (G:16.75% B:1.12%)
33.99% (G:7.01% B:0.50%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.529...+0.537) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 46 seconds
7.Rollout117/15 6/5eq: +0.526 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		65.90% (G:16.36% B:1.18%)
34.10% (G:6.45% B:0.58%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.521...+0.530) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 17/16*/14.

17/16*/14 should win more gammons. I am not sure whether hitting wins more games, so I hit.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 177
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABCB----abB---cbdcB-B-A:0:0:1:54:10:5:1:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-04

January 4, 2020 by 4 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 171
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BBC--B--bB---cbdcB--AA:0:0:1:21:10:5:1:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 24/23eq: -0.447
Player:
Opponent:		39.04% (G:7.85% B:0.76%)
60.96% (G:17.96% B:1.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.452...-0.443) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 9/7eq: -0.490 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		39.38% (G:7.13% B:0.91%)
60.62% (G:21.63% B:3.69%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.495...-0.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 44 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.508 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		37.34% (G:7.19% B:0.58%)
62.66% (G:19.93% B:2.94%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.513...-0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 47 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/24 13/11eq: -0.530 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:		37.77% (G:6.24% B:0.47%)
62.23% (G:22.24% B:3.93%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.535...-0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 11 seconds
5.Rollout1Bar/22eq: -0.530 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:		36.75% (G:6.82% B:0.73%)
63.25% (G:20.87% B:1.50%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.535...-0.526) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/23 24/23
[12] b/22
[ 5] b/24 6/4
[ 1] b/24 13/11

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 24/23

Neil has 12 checkers in the zone which suggests we want to anchor up and have no blots in Neil’s inner board with Bar/23 24/23.

We may not have the timing for a Backgame, but we could get lucky and play a successful Backgame. In any case we want the security of the anchor and we lose fewer Gammons with Bar/23 24/23.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: b/23 24/23

This is no good backgame due to a massive lack of timing (we are not behind enough in the race). Having still one of Neil’s checker back in our homeboard the “offensive” play indicated by the timing would be bar/21 aiming on containing Neil’s last checker through outfield control by jumping his prime and keeping the 13 point and the 9 point.

The problem with this game plan here is that Neil´s attacking chances with already 12 well distributed checkers in the zone are too strong. With bar/21 we will offer Neil two blots and he will have ample opportunity to point on one or to hit both blots and keep us busy with dancing and re-entering with the result that we will not be able to execute our game plan and that we are liable to even lose a gammon. This is why the “defensive” play of making the 23 point prevails this time.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 168
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BBC--B--bB---cbdcB-B--:0:0:-1:51:10:5:1:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout123/17eq: +0.471
Player:
Opponent:		62.64% (G:17.15% B:1.20%)
37.36% (G:7.60% B:0.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.466...+0.475) - [100.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout123/18 8/7eq: +0.445 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		60.89% (G:17.90% B:1.38%)
39.11% (G:8.59% B:0.92%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.441...+0.450) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout123/18 6/5eq: +0.432 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		60.51% (G:17.50% B:1.27%)
39.49% (G:8.19% B:0.92%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.428...+0.437) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/17.

When one doesn’t want to use the number rolled on his side of the board he should look to play on their side of the board. Here I can hop out and leave 22 shots which is clearly fewer than the last couple of turns.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 168
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC-aB--bB---cbdcB-B--:0:0:1:43:10:5:1:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-03

January 3, 2020 by 6 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 156
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BBC--BA-bB---dbdbB--A-:0:0:1:53:10:5:1:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout124/16eq: -0.261
Player:
Opponent:		43.08% (G:9.05% B:0.71%)
56.92% (G:9.65% B:0.40%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.264...-0.257) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 36 seconds
2.playedRollout110/2* eq: -0.306 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		43.41% (G:11.42% B:0.72%)
56.59% (G:13.74% B:0.92%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.311...-0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 53 seconds
3.Rollout124/21 10/5eq: -0.311 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:		39.05% (G:7.62% B:0.46%)
60.95% (G:7.27% B:0.34%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.314...-0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 10/2*
[12] 24/21 10/5
[10] 24/16
[ 1] 24/21 6/1

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 24/16

We are down in the race with three checkers back against Neil’s one checker back. Our homeboard is stronger. This normally calls for hitting loose and thus 10/2* is a strong contender.

The fact that our back checkers are trapped behind a 4 prime and related timing aspects makes escaping more valuable here:

Hitting on the 16 point costs Neil his 13 point and we may gain total outfield control. We gain better outfield control and considerable more hits if Neil escapes without hitting next roll. Escaping also protects us against being forced to give up either our 13 point or or 9 point, which both serve to contain Neil’s last checker as well as the 9 point may serve as last point of a 6 prime. These aspects together outweigh the merits of an attacking play even though this would include the additional chance of getting a shot in Neil’s home board later by staying on the 24 point.

Place one of Neil’s checkers from the bar point on his 8 point and one one his 6 point and attacking becomes best play.


Neil Kazaross: 32 b/23* 8/5

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 171
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BBC--B--bB---cbdcB--AA:0:0:1:21:10:5:1:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-02

January 2, 2020 by 5 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 160
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BBC--B-AcB---dbcbA--B-:0:0:1:31:10:5:1:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout124/21 11/10eq: -0.395
Player:
Opponent:		37.72% (G:8.94% B:0.75%)
62.28% (G:11.80% B:0.64%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.397...-0.394) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 57 minutes
2.Rollout224/21 6/5eq: -0.403 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		37.36% (G:8.90% B:0.49%)
62.64% (G:11.87% B:0.62%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.407...-0.399) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout124/23 24/21eq: -0.404 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		37.18% (G:8.08% B:0.65%)
62.82% (G:11.62% B:0.52%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.405...-0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 58 minutes
4.Rollout224/21 9/8eq: -0.468 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:		37.28% (G:8.36% B:0.78%)
62.72% (G:16.84% B:0.98%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.473...-0.464) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 41 seconds
5.Rollout26/2* eq: -0.534 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:		36.72% (G:9.72% B:0.75%)
63.28% (G:20.81% B:4.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.539...-0.528) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 23 seconds
6.Rollout211/8 9/8eq: -0.551 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:		35.59% (G:10.56% B:1.01%)
64.41% (G:20.47% B:3.74%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.556...-0.546) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/21 11/10
[11] 24/21 6/5
[ 4] 11/8 9/8
[ 1] 24/21 9/8
[ 1] 13/10 11/10
[ 1] 6/2*

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 11/10

Neil wants to score a Gammon so we should avoid hitting 6/2*.

Neil also has 11 checkers in the zone so he will attack us if we do not play 24/21 now. So after we play 24/21 how do we play the 1?

I like 11/10 as it duplicates 53 which makes Neil’s 3 point for him.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 24/21 6/5

24/21 is clear. Those who favor hitting should consider that the anchor works perfect for the defence whereas hitting loose is a weak offence without creating a permanent asset like an anchor. The ace is tricky. 24/23 makes no sense since Neil will not break the 8 point. The only advantage is that we can leave the checkers on our 6 point and on our 11 point, where we want them to be. 6/5 leaves the checker on the 11 point and gives Neil four more rolls that leave a double shot when he will run (62 and 53). Duplication is not a consideration here. It is bad to remove the last spare from the 6 point and in particular, when we still have checkers behind Neil’s prime. This is maybe why XG seems to prefer 11/10.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 156
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BBC--BA-cB---dbcbB--A-:0:0:-1:52:10:5:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/6eq: +0.288
Player:
Opponent:		56.27% (G:12.82% B:0.79%)
43.73% (G:11.24% B:1.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.284...+0.292) - [99.1%]
Duration: 51 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout123/18 8/6eq: +0.281 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		56.79% (G:11.45% B:0.65%)
43.21% (G:12.52% B:0.95%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.277...+0.285) - [0.9%]
Duration: 50 minutes 33 seconds
3.Rollout123/18 13/11eq: +0.267 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		56.03% (G:11.54% B:0.81%)
43.97% (G:13.95% B:1.26%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.263...+0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/6.

This is a somewhat different situation than last turn, since I no longer threaten to point on them. My two is 8/6, as I don’t need a new blot on the 11 point. Now to consider my 5. Hitting loose behind their anchor when I have only a 2 point board is very wrong here.

Stepping out with the 5 leaves a whopping 30 shots, but most of the hits come from stripped points, and I may be able to return hit. But 30 shots on a point they need to make seems too much.

I’ll go with 13/8 since I have 5’s and 6’s to come out later and hopefully can roll something to pop out and leave fewer shots or better yet hit a fly shot.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 156
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BBC--BA-bB---dbdbB--A-:0:0:1:53:10:5:1:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2020-01-01

January 1, 2020 by 5 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 165
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---BBC---AAdC---cbcbA--B-:0:0:1:41:10:5:1:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout113/9 10/9eq: -0.432
Player:
Opponent:		38.78% (G:11.61% B:1.17%)
61.22% (G:16.26% B:2.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.434...-0.430) - [99.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.436 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		39.08% (G:11.64% B:0.99%)
60.92% (G:17.08% B:1.89%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.438...-0.434) - [0.2%]
Duration: 5 hours 17 minutes
3.Rollout224/23 10/6eq: -0.441 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		37.61% (G:10.59% B:0.55%)
62.39% (G:15.21% B:1.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.446...-0.437) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 26 seconds
4.Rollout224/23 11/7eq: -0.448 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		38.20% (G:10.78% B:0.67%)
61.80% (G:16.62% B:1.84%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.453...-0.443) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 28 seconds
5.Rollout210/5eq: -0.468 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		37.20% (G:10.87% B:0.73%)
62.80% (G:16.61% B:2.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.473...-0.463) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 09 seconds
6.Rollout213/9 11/10eq: -0.469 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		37.23% (G:10.56% B:1.12%)
62.77% (G:16.69% B:2.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.473...-0.464) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 13 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 13/9 10/9
[ 6] 24/23 13/9
[ 3] 10/5
[ 2] 24/23 11/7
[ 1] 24/23 10/6
[ 1] 11/7 6/5
[ 1] 13/8

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/9 10/9

What is our Game Plan here? We are not ahead in the race so we are not racing. If we split 24/23 13/9, then we give Neil a great 63 from the bar.

We are playing a containment game, so we want to make it hard for Neil to escape his last checker. If we make the 9 point with 13/9 10/9, then 63 enters but does not hit us anywhere. If Neil enters and escapes to the outfield, then we will have three builders aimed at his escaping checker. We will have builders aimed at the 8 and 7 points to make a prime.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 160
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---BBC--B-AdB---cbcbA--B-:0:0:-1:52:10:5:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: +0.460
Player:
Opponent:		62.86% (G:15.91% B:1.58%)
37.14% (G:9.87% B:0.74%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.456...+0.464) - [100.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/18eq: +0.405 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		60.50% (G:15.24% B:2.21%)
39.50% (G:12.20% B:0.95%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.400...+0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 24 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 13/8.

A decent roll for me as I have good chances to escape later from the 23 point, and then I can bring down another builder rather than stepping out into a plethora of shots.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 160
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BBC--B-AcB---dbcbA--B-:0:0:1:31:10:5:1:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-12-31

December 31, 2019 by 11 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 133
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 172
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC---aAdD---cbcb---BA:0:0:1:43:10:5:1:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/10* eq: -0.474
Player:
Opponent:		37.19% (G:10.14% B:1.13%)
62.81% (G:17.02% B:2.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.479...-0.469) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
2.Rollout1Bar/21 24/21eq: -0.637 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent:		25.70% (G:3.38% B:0.30%)
74.30% (G:11.93% B:0.48%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.641...-0.634) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] b/21 13/10*

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: b/21 13/10*

Making the 21 point anchor loses fewer gammons. b/21 13/10* wins more games (much more likely).


Neil Kazaross: 44 no play

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 165
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---BBC---AAdC---cbcbA--B-:0:0:1:41:10:5:1:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-12-30

December 31, 2019 by 1 Comment
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BBC-----dE-A-cbcb---B-:0:0:1:52:10:5:1:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout124/22 15/10eq: -0.533
Player:
Opponent:		34.23% (G:7.82% B:0.65%)
65.77% (G:17.15% B:1.11%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.537...-0.529) - [100.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 29 seconds
2.playedRollout115/10 13/11eq: -0.576 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		32.20% (G:8.17% B:0.81%)
67.80% (G:17.22% B:2.18%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.581...-0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 15/10 13/11
[10] 24/22 15/10
[ 3] 15/8
[ 3] 15/10 6/4
[ 1] 13/6

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 15/10

Although it is always good to unstack, we should not play 15/10 13/11. We will be hit with nine numbers as well as 55 and 66 escaping.

Neil has a 4 prime, which may not look like much but to quote Kent Goulding, “Four in a row is more than you think.” We need to split to either escape or get an advanced anchor sometime, so let’s do it now with 24/22 so we can see daylight and maybe anchor on the 22 point. Then we should just play 15/10.

Kimon Papachristopoulos recommends: 24/22 15/10

Waiting on the 24 point is surrendering and not a good option because Neil has a two point homeboard only and our homeboard is still stronger. Yes, we are down in the race but still we do not want to get trapped behind Neil’s prime. We must move up to a point, from which we can jump the prime now, before Neil’s board and ammunition will be too strong. It might be too late next roll. 15/10 is self evident. Our main goal is to establish an anchor on the 22 point.


Neil Kazaross: 53 23/15*

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 133
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 172
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBC---aAdD---cbcb---BA:0:0:1:43:10:5:1:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-12-29

December 30, 2019 by 2 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 174
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBC-----eE---bbcb---BA:0:0:1:64:10:5:1:11:10
to play 64

1.xgRollout1Bar/21 13/7eq: -0.564
Player:
Opponent:		34.69% (G:8.78% B:0.83%)
65.31% (G:20.13% B:3.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.569...-0.559) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 56 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/15eq: -0.576 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		33.13% (G:8.11% B:0.73%)
66.87% (G:18.68% B:2.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.581...-0.571) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/15
[19] b/21 13/7

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 13/7

Bar/15 is the racing play when we are behind in the race.

We have the better board, more checkers back and are behind in the race. Magriel’s Safe vs Bold criteria indicate that we should make a Bold play, so Bar/21 13/7 for me. This also gives us a chance to anchor at the edge of Neil’s 4 prime.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/21 13/7

We want to establish the 21 point and the 7 point. We are behind in every aspect and have “nothing to lose”. This play has the best potential to turn around the game. Bar/15 cancels connectivity between our checkers, which is very bad. The downside is of course that we lose considerable more gammons but winning is so easy after this play that I would go for it. In addition, playing bar/15 will bring more difficult decisions for us in the future like split or safe a blot or run or make a point and so forth, which I would be happy to avoid.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBC-----eE-A-bbcb---B-:0:0:-1:51:10:5:1:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout124/23 13/8eq: +0.533
Player:
Opponent:		65.76% (G:17.11% B:1.40%)
34.24% (G:7.96% B:0.60%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.528...+0.537) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout113/7eq: +0.509 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		64.57% (G:17.09% B:1.55%)
35.43% (G:9.02% B:0.71%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.505...+0.513) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 13/8.

I think my 5 is 13/8, adding a builder in hopes of soon extending my prime or making it risky for them to split. Now the ace is between 8/7 and 24/23. I’ll step up in the back as since they only have seven in the zone, and no outfield points. I want better control of their outfield which is where they will often play into next roll. I also want to better be able to escape. I think my back checker faces more danger of being primed than blitzed.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 164
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BBC-----dE-A-cbcb---B-:0:0:1:52:10:5:1:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-12-28

December 29, 2019 by 6 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 163
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-BD-B---dE---bbcb---B-:0:0:1:42:10:5:1:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.472
Player:
Opponent:		38.01% (G:11.64% B:1.81%)
61.99% (G:18.21% B:2.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.477...-0.467) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
2.Rollout124/22 13/9eq: -0.484 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		38.01% (G:10.03% B:1.41%)
61.99% (G:19.17% B:1.58%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.489...-0.479) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 8/4 6/4
[ 9] 24/22 13/9
[ 1] 8/6 8/4
[ 1] 24/22 6/2

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 13/9

After the roll we will be behind in the race by 1 pip. This means we should lean towards a priming play. Neil has a 4 prime which could grow into a 5 prime. He will slot the back freely unless we split and make it more dangerous to do so. He may still slot the back of the prime, but now there is a cost.

13/9 unstacks, and slots another blocking point, so it looks good.

8/4 6/4 also looks good but 24/22 13/9 is the DMP play so that right or wrong, that is my play, and this will be close.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/4 6/4

We are forced leave a shot. A contender to the recommended move is 24/22 13/9. My play over the board would be 8/4 6/4. Homeboard points are most precious, helpful in particular in the coming exchange of hits. Since we have to leave a shot anyway, an additional homeboard point serves also as kind of defence. The downside is first of all that we have to sacrifice the valuable 8 point what reduces the benefit of making the 4 point. In addition we fail to move up to a point in Neil’s homeboard, from which we can jump his prime. Bringing one checker down by playing 13/9 is also useful because we have only eight checkers in the zone what means a lack of material. The XG analysis shows that both moves are almost equal. Interesting to note that 8/4 6/4 wins more games whereas 24/22 13/9 wins more gammons.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 157
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aBBC-A---dE---bbcb---B-:0:0:-1:54:10:5:1:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout122/17* 17/13eq: +0.551
Player:
Opponent:		66.20% (G:17.73% B:2.49%)
33.80% (G:8.44% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.546...+0.555) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout122/17* 13/9eq: +0.519 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		63.75% (G:19.14% B:2.10%)
36.25% (G:11.42% B:1.78%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.514...+0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/17*/13.

22/17* is automatic, and then I think I should just continue to the midpoint. My desire to win a gammon causes me to consider 13/9 but that leaves 10 shots when their board is better than mine. My position is good after the safer play, and I should be able to continue to develop it.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 174
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBC-----eE---bbcb---BA:0:0:1:64:10:5:1:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-12-27

December 27, 2019 by 4 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 49
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cBCDD-------------babbbc-:0:0:1:62:8:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout15/3 5/Offeq: +1.517
Player:
Opponent:		94.08% (G:48.77% B:3.58%)
5.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.513...+1.521) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 26 seconds
2.playedRollout15/Off 4/2eq: +1.483 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		92.67% (G:48.61% B:3.57%)
7.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.479...+1.487) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 5/0 4/2
[18] 5/3 5/0

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 5/3 5/0

I like 5/3 5/off as it prepares to clear the outer point. Visually it looks like a “mountain structure” as Michy would say, whereas 5/off 4/2 looks flat and hurts my eyes. After 5/3 5/off, both 64 and 54 leave shots next time but once you get past the next roll, this move is safer than 5/off 4/2 although it only leaves 65 as an immediate blotting number.

So when would 5/off 4/2 be correct? If we move Neil’s spare on the 24 point to either his 6 or 5 points then 5/off 4/2 becomes correct as we can attack when he is forced to run with a 6 as we will have four active builders aimed at our 1 point. If we put the spare on Neil’s 12 point it is still correct to play 5/off 4/2, but only by 0.008.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 5/3 5/0

5/3 is safer than 4/2 even though we will be forced to leave a shot after four rolls (54 and 64) whereas after 4/2 only two rolls (65) will force us to leave a shot. The reason is that those risks almost add up when we play 4/2: First we will have to avoid 65 and then (unless we clear the 5 point with doubles) we will have to avoid 64 and 54 after we remove the remaining spare from the 5 point.

If we play 4/2 we can keep our 4 prime probably for one more roll, i.e. for two rolls instead of for one roll. The additional risk does not pay off because it works only if Neil fails to jump this prime twice (256/1296) and since we are favourite to win a gammon unless we get hit — only a fraction of these events will result in additional gammons.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 42
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cCCCC-------------babbbc-:0:0:-1:55:8:5:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout124/19 24/9eq: -1.213
Player:
Opponent:		5.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.28% (G:28.42% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.216...-1.210) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout124/14(2)eq: -1.223 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		5.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.56% (G:28.67% B:0.47%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.226...-1.220) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/19 24/9.

In spite of their four builders, I need to go with two checkers. If I play 24/4, I bury a checker. I may really crack if I cannot hop their 4 prime next roll. I’ll have to risk getting pointed on, but some of those rolls will leave some shot chances if I dance on their now 5 point board.

The best way to run both should be 24/19 24/9.


USBGF Members: 21 3/1* 2/1
Neil Kazaross: 31 no play
USBGF Members: 63 5/0 4/1
Neil Kazaross: 61 b/18
USBGF Members: 11 2/0 1/0(2)

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 84
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 27
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AABBBaa--------a--babbbc-:0:0:-1:62:8:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout119/11eq: -1.388
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:33.43% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.389...-1.388) - [100.0%]
Duration: 54.5 seconds
2.Rollout119/13 18/16eq: -1.393 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:33.88% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.394...-1.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.9 seconds
3.Rollout119/17 18/12eq: -1.394 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:33.93% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.394...-1.394) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49.9 seconds
4.Rollout118/10eq: -1.397 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:34.16% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.397...-1.396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46.5 seconds
5.Rollout118/12 9/7eq: -1.407 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:35.09% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.408...-1.407) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.8 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 19/11.

I need to make two crossovers and there are two ways to do that. I slightly prefer 19/11 since with a checker 12 away I can handle 44 a little better if that matters. Also 55 plays a bit better.


USBGF Members: 52 5/0 2/0

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 20
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-BBA-a------a-a--babbbc-:0:0:-1:52:8:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout118/16 11/6eq: -1.358
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:30.84% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.358...-1.358) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12.4 seconds
2.Rollout118/11eq: -1.386 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:33.22% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.387...-1.385) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11.4 seconds
3.Rollout111/6 9/7eq: -1.412 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:35.51% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.413...-1.412) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11.6 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/16 11/6.

11/6 puts that checker where it belongs and then 18/16 gives me more working rolls for next turn(s).


USBGF Members: 66 5/0 4/0(2) 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 51 16/11 9/8
USBGF Members: 53 3/0 1/0

USBGF Members win two points and lead 1-away(C)/6-away.


Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7
USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 11 24/22 6/5(2)

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 163
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-BD-B---dE---bbcb---B-:0:0:1:42:10:5:1:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-12-26

December 26, 2019 by 9 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 115
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 56
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cBDED--------a----aabbbc-:0:0:1:43:8:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout14/Off 3/Offeq: +1.422
Player:
Opponent:		93.02% (G:43.23% B:3.05%)
6.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.418...+1.426) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout15/2 4/Offeq: +1.370 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		92.23% (G:41.18% B:2.83%)
7.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.365...+1.374) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 4/0 3/0
[ 1] 5/2 4/0


Neil Kazaross: 32 11/6

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 49
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cBCDD-------------babbbc-:0:0:1:62:8:5:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-12-25

December 26, 2019 by 1 Comment
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 61
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cBCDDBa-----------aabbbc-:0:0:1:32:8:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout15/Offeq: +1.351
Player:
Opponent:		90.49% (G:42.11% B:3.22%)
9.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.346...+1.357) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 23 seconds
2.playedRollout16/4 6/3eq: +1.338 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		91.60% (G:39.45% B:2.60%)
8.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.333...+1.342) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout14/2 3/Offeq: +1.313 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		89.18% (G:41.25% B:3.01%)
10.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.308...+1.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 6/4 6/3
[ 9] 5/0
[ 2] 4/2 3/0

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/4 6/3

We really should start taking checkers off rather than play 6/4 6/3.

Notice that 5/off leaves the perfect “mountain structure” that Michi describes in his book “Endgame Technique” – that is two or more spares on the 4 point and one spare on both the 3 and 5 points.

Happy Christmas to everyone, and have a great coming year – and thanks Jason for all the effort you put into the online match, and Neil for all your great insights. Kimon have a great Christmas, and the next time I am in Germany we must meet up.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 5/0

Even if we get hit we will still be favourite. Clearing the 6 point also allows Neil to escape easier and keep/ built his board what works for him. 5/0 at the same time bears off and keeps the prime which both increases our gammon chances at a small price. 4/2 3/off does the same and at the same time keeps a pattern with an even number of checkers at the end of our prime. Since only 66 will force us to leave a shot after 5/off the additional risk is low. And the distribution is smoother after playing 5/off. No gap on the 3 and no overstacked 5 point.

If Neil had a strong homeboard, clearing the 6 point would be correct.


Neil Kazaross: 43 18/11

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 115
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 56
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cBDED--------a----aabbbc-:0:0:1:43:8:5:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-12-24

December 25, 2019 by 9 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dBBCEC------------aabcac-:0:0:1:31:8:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout16/3 5/4eq: +1.635
Player:
Opponent:		95.05% (G:54.98% B:4.63%)
4.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.633...+1.636) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout15/4 5/2eq: +1.624 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		94.55% (G:54.78% B:4.65%)
5.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.623...+1.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 26 minutes
3.Rollout24/Offeq: +1.615 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		94.07% (G:54.17% B:4.71%)
5.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.611...+1.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout25/2 4/3eq: +1.592 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		93.77% (G:53.12% B:4.49%)
6.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.588...+1.596) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 6/3 5/4
[13] 5/4 5/2
[ 3] 4/0
[ 2] 5/2 4/3

Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/3 5/4

Let’s “clear from the rear, and ask no questions” to quote Kit Woolsey from an article he wrote a long time ago. Let’s play 6/3 5/4 which also creates a mountain structure.

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 5/4 5/2

4/off brings an ugly distribution with a long stack on the 5 point what might result in bad 4’s after we will have cleared the 6 point. My play over the board would be 5/4 5/2 because we will have no bad numbers next roll and spares on 4 different points. XG prefers 6/3 5/4 although 6/5 leaves a shot and there will only be spares on three different points. This might be a “pay now or later” issue due to the three blots in Neil´s homeboard. Maybe the reason is that the remaining 4 prime after we clear the 6 point is more robust.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 61
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dBCDDB------------aabcac-:0:0:-1:61:8:5:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout124/18 3/2eq: -1.382
Player:
Opponent:		9.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.13% (G:44.73% B:3.90%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.387...-1.376) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 6/5eq: -1.398 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		9.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.63% (G:45.08% B:3.64%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.404...-1.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/18 3/2.

A good roll for me as now I am unlikely to crash and may even save the gammon without hitting a blot. 24/18 is forced and most welcome. Then the ace is clearly 3/2 using that dilly builder. I can hope to remake at least a 5 point board with spare checkers as they come around to my board in following turns.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 61
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-cBCDDBa-----------aabbbc-:0:0:1:32:8:5:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM

USBGF OLM 2019-12-23

December 24, 2019 by 13 Comments
[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 73
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dBBCCBB--A--------babdaa-:0:0:1:22:8:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.xgRollout110/4 5/3eq: +1.581
Player:
Opponent:		93.31% (G:53.47% B:4.41%)
6.69% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.580...+1.583) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 13 minutes
2.Rollout110/2eq: +1.575 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		92.91% (G:53.46% B:4.48%)
7.09% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.573...+1.577) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout210/6 5/3 4/2eq: +1.555 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		92.48% (G:52.27% B:4.25%)
7.52% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.550...+1.559) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 43 seconds
4.Rollout210/6 7/3eq: +1.551 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		91.20% (G:53.03% B:5.91%)
8.80% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.545...+1.556) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout27/3(2)eq: +1.522 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		92.07% (G:51.37% B:4.87%)
7.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.517...+1.528) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 25 seconds
6.Rollout210/8 7/5 7/3eq: +1.520 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		92.25% (G:50.90% B:4.68%)
7.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.515...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 40 seconds
7.playedRollout210/6 7/5(2)eq: +1.514 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		91.89% (G:50.77% B:4.78%)
8.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.509...+1.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 10/6 7/5(2)
[ 9] 10/2
[ 2] 10/8 7/5 7/3
[ 2] 10/6 5/3 4/2
[ 1] 10/4 5/3

Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 10/2

Clearing the bar point seems to be safer but it surely wins fewer gammons because Neil can escape with a 6. Anyway we remain high favourite to win the game, no matter if we clear the bar point or not. The price for blocking Neil one more roll is low (if any; see below) and if he rolls a 6 the reward will be high. Not only that we stop him from running home. He will be forced to bury a checker deep in his homeboard and maybe crunch completely later. This is why I would choose 10/2 over the board. After an XG rollout it even turns out that keeping the bar point not only increases our gammon chances but also our winning chances. 10/2 leaves us with a better distribution than 10/4 5/3 and it is a surprise that those two plays are that close.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dBBCEC------------babdaa-:0:0:-1:52:8:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/1 3/1eq: -1.661
Player:
Opponent:		5.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.25% (G:57.80% B:5.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.666...-1.657) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/1eq: -1.684 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		5.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.96% (G:57.72% B:5.37%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.689...-1.680) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63616886
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1 3/1.

In almost any sequence where I steal this game I need to find some way to make a 5 point board.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 8

is USBGF Members
XGID=-dBBCEC------------aabcac-:0:0:1:31:8:5:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Filed Under: Match #13, OLM
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