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is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 129 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 95 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-Bb-CBCBB---a-a--babbbbA--:1:1:1:42:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 42 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 7/5 7/3 | eq: -0.655 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 8/6 8/4 | eq: -0.731 (-0.076) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

`USBGF Members vote:`

[19] **8/6 8/4**

[11] 7/5 7/3

**Mary Hickey recommends: 7/5 7/3**

We only have two serious candidates here: clearing the 8 or clearing the bar. If we set up the resulting positions, we see that clearing the 8 is safe for the roll, but sure looks likely to generate a shot later. Too many stripped points, and still that gap. Clearing the bar leaves him aces to hit now, but looks to roll in better on the following turn and thereafter if he misses. It also has the advantage of killing our 6s, potentially allowing us a little more game-time to let him roll a prime-cracking number. That assumes he gets the prime, of course; he’s a big favorite to make his bar point, but it’s not certain until it’s done.

Getting a second checker closed out increases our gammon risk, but if we slot and he hits us, a closeout isn’t a given. This might instead provide us the opportunity to anchor before he gets enough material to complete a blitz. If he makes the prime, we want that opportunity, because otherwise he may succeed in recirculating checkers by means of loose hits inside until he picks up a second man, and we’d then have to get a lot luckier to anchor than we have to get right now.

So much for strategy; what about tactical considerations? 11, 51 and 31 are already prime-making numbers for him, so we aren’t “giving” him those numbers. He already has them! If he rolls 61 or 41, we make his roll better, but again, we give ourselves that chance to anchor and make a last stand versus his prime. If he gets a 21, we did “give him the roll”, but we still have our chance to anchor. Overall, since the incremental danger from our slotting right now is mitigated by the factors just noted, the danger of leaving a worse shot later is high, and that our position plays better if we’re missed, clearing the bar point looks right for the long term and is the way to go today.

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 129 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 89 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-Bb-DBDB----a-a--babbbbA--:1:1:-1:55:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 55 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 13/3 11/6 7/2* | eq: -0.097 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 11/6 8/3(2) 7/2* | eq: -0.295 (-0.198) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 13/8 11/1 7/2* | eq: -0.301 (-0.204) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 32123691 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 13/3 11/6 7/2*.**

Well the dice sometimes bring bad tidings as well as good. Here rather than rolling one of 27 prime making numbers I get this BAD 55. I can just handle it.

USBGF Members: 62 b/23* 7/1

Neil Kazaross: 43 b/18*

USBGF Members: 53 no play

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 125 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 101 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-Cb-DBDa---------b-cbbcA-A:1:1:-1:62:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 62 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 18/16 8/2* | eq: +0.856 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 8/2* 6/4 | eq: +0.835 (-0.022) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 18/10 | eq: +0.823 (-0.033) | |||

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4. | Rollout^{1} | 8/6 8/2* | eq: +0.811 (-0.046) | |||

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5. | Rollout^{1} | 18/12 6/4 | eq: +0.795 (-0.061) | |||

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6. | Rollout^{1} | 23/15 | eq: +0.742 (-0.114) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 18/16 8/2*.**

I can’t take my eye off the ball here and must continue to make strong plays. 8/2* puts a 2nd checker on the bar and might even be the best DMP play. Certainly it will win the most match ending gammons. Then the best 2 is 18/16. I am not in danger of yet cracking with a 44 or 33 so I don’t need to hop a checker into the outfield and allow some counter-play. Best is just to work to close my opponents out to try to snuff out any resistance they can offer this game.

USBGF Members: 64 no play

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 117 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-Cb-DBD--a-------a-cbbca-B:1:1:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 41 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 8/7 6/2 | eq: +1.234 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 8/4 3/2 | eq: +1.234 (0.000) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{2} | 23/22 6/2 | eq: +1.224 (-0.010) | |||

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4. | Rollout^{2} | 16/12 3/2 | eq: +1.212 (-0.022) | |||

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^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 3/2.**

I think the most natural play is 8/4 3/2 rather than 8/7 6/2 as I want spares on high points. But shouldn’t I be afraid of my 44 and play 23/22 6/2? However, that risks 11 from my opponents although I still may end up OK if they crash afterwards. Which ghost to be afraid of? Well seeing that I can handle one 44 without crashing I think I am supposed to add a builder for the close out. If I can’t move a back checker next turn and then roll 44 if won’t be the end of the world if all it costs me is to switch my 5 point for my 1 point.

USBGF Members: 65 no play

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 112 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-Cb-DBD--a---------cbcbb-B:1:1:-1:64:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 64 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 23/13 | eq: +1.322 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 23/17 16/12 | eq: +1.316 (-0.005) | |||

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^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 23/13.**

This probably doesn’t make much of a difference as long as I run out with a back checker. 23/13 allows me to hit loose with 66 and 44 if my opponents enter and by leaving the checker on the 16 point, 55 will close my board. If I instead play 16/12, I do bring that checker a bit closer to home where it soon can become a direct builder, but this doesn’t add anything next turn as I can hit loose with 65 anyhow should my opponents enter a checker.

USBGF Members: 64 no play

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 102 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-Ca-DBD--a--a------cbcbb-B:1:1:-1:31:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 31 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 16/13 6/5 | eq: +1.335 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 13/9 | eq: +1.333 (-0.002) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 23/22 16/13 | eq: +1.331 (-0.003) | |||

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4. | Rollout^{1} | 13/10 6/5 | eq: +1.331 (-0.004) | |||

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5. | Rollout^{2} | 16/15 13/10 | eq: +1.329 (-0.006) | |||

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6. | Rollout^{2} | 23/22 13/10 | eq: +1.326 (-0.009) | |||

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7. | Rollout^{2} | 16/12 | eq: +1.324 (-0.011) | |||

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^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ ^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 13/9.**

I think I have enough time to escape that 3 prime that I don’t need to yet play 23/22 and risk a 11 joker. I’ll go with 13/9, putting that checker in a good spot if I need to hit loose.

USBGF Members: 31 b/24

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 98 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 102 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-Ca-DBD--a------a--cbcbbAA:1:1:-1:63:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 63 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 23/17 4/1* | eq: +1.282 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 9/3 4/1* | eq: +1.252 (-0.030) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 23/17 4/1*.**

I am happy to hit 4/1* going after the closeout. Then I play 23/17 hopping out so I don’t risk ending up with two checkers back if the USBGF Members roll a saving ace from the bar.

USBGF Members: 33 no play

Neil Kazaross: 32 6/1

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 84 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-C--DBD-aa------a--bbbbbbB:1:1:-1:21:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 21 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 9/6 | eq: +1.527 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 17/15 9/8 | eq: +1.524 (-0.003) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 17/14 | eq: +1.524 (-0.003) | |||

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4. | Rollout^{1} | 16/14 9/8 | eq: +1.523 (-0.004) | |||

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5. | Rollout^{1} | 16/13 | eq: +1.523 (-0.004) | |||

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6. | Rollout^{1} | 16/15 9/7 | eq: +1.521 (-0.006) | |||

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7. | Rollout^{1} | 17/15 16/15 | eq: +1.521 (-0.006) | |||

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8. | Rollout^{1} | 17/16 9/7 | eq: +1.519 (-0.008) | |||

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^{1} 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 9/6.**

My gammon value is higher than normal here since I win the match exactly with a 4 point gammon. It is about 2/3 rather than the normal 1/2. Thus I will take some small risks to bear off quickly for a gammon. My ideal quick bearoff position after a closeout is usually to put one spare checker on my 6 and 5 points and then the dice decide what happens with my third spare. Therefore, 9/6 here.

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 81 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-C--DBD-aa---------cbbbbbB:1:1:-1:51:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 51 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 17/12 6/5 | eq: +1.528 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 16/10 | eq: +1.527 (-0.001) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 17/11 | eq: +1.526 (-0.001) | |||

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4. | Rollout^{1} | 17/12 16/15 | eq: +1.524 (-0.004) | |||

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5. | Rollout^{1} | 16/11 6/5 | eq: +1.516 (-0.012) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 16/10.**

16/10 looks smooth as my big doubles play fine. If I play 17/11 then my 55 is awkward.

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 75 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-C--DBD-a------a---cbbbbbB:1:1:-1:21:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 21 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 17/14 | eq: +1.528 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 17/15 10/9 | eq: +1.526 (-0.001) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 17/16 10/8 | eq: +1.524 (-0.004) | |||

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4. | Rollout^{1} | 17/15 6/5 | eq: +1.522 (-0.005) | |||

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5. | Rollout^{1} | 10/8 6/5 | eq: +1.517 (-0.011) | |||

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6. | Rollout^{1} | 10/9 6/4 | eq: +1.517 (-0.011) | |||

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7. | Rollout^{1} | 10/7 | eq: +1.516 (-0.012) | |||

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8. | Rollout^{1} | 17/16 6/4 | eq: +1.510 (-0.018) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 17/14.**

17/14 seems to be the most flexible, and of course, this play isn’t a big deal.

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 72 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-C--DBD----a---a---cbbbbbB:1:1:-1:41:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 41 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 14/10 6/5 | eq: +1.522 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 14/9 | eq: +1.520 (-0.002) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 10/5 | eq: +1.520 (-0.002) | |||

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4. | Rollout^{1} | 14/13 10/6 | eq: +1.520 (-0.002) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 10/5.**

I will risk a very small chance of disaster and push towards a gammon win with 10/5. If my opponents’ board and containment potential were better I wouldn’t risk a blotting 66.

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 67 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-C--DBD----a-------ccbbbbB:1:1:-1:53:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 53 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 14/6 | eq: +1.512 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 14/9 6/3 | eq: +1.508 (-0.004) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | 14/9 5/2 | eq: +1.500 (-0.012) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 14/6.**

14/6 isn’t the DMP play as I can get into trouble if I roll large numbers for a couple of turns, but it is the best play for the gammon and likely correct.

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 59 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-C--DBD------------dcbbbbB:1:1:-1:54:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 54 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 6/2 5/Off | eq: +1.437 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 6/2 6/1 | eq: +1.409 (-0.027) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 6/2 5/0.**

This ugly roll throws a wrench into my plans! If I play 6/2 6/1, I take none off and don’t leave a really safe position. It seems best to risk taking a checker off with 5/0 and then play 6/2 and hope to roll smaller next turn. I think the trade off of added gammon wins vs. added losses justifies this risk. If I do get hit as a result, I will usually still have a 5 point board and can hope to come around and survive.

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 50 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-C--DBD------------cbbbcbB:1:1:-1:55:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 55 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 6/1(2) 5/Off(2) | eq: +1.119 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 6/1(3) 5/Off | eq: +0.983 (-0.136) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 6/1(2) 5/0(2).**

Here comes trouble! I simply take 2 checkers off as the number of shots is 11 either way.

USBGF Members: 22 no play

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 30 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 103 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-C--DBD------------a-bbcdB:1:1:-1:63:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 63 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 6/3 4/Off | eq: +1.287 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 6/Off 3/Off | eq: +1.224 (-0.063) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 14737706 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 6/3 4/0.**

I am regretting not playing more safely with my bearin! Now I think I have to potentially waste a roll and end up with an odd number of checkers remaining, since if I take 2 checkers off I will have many rolls to leave a shot next turn and there’s a chance if I am hit to enter and then expose a blot on my 4 point. 6/3 4/0 is very safe if I am missed.

USBGF Members: 54 b/20 b/21*

Neil Kazaross: 64 no play

is Neil Kazaross score: 7 pip: 44 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 94 score: 5 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=aC--DBD-------------AAccd-:1:1:1:61:5:7:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 61 |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10