**Money Play. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?**

**XGID=–DF-aCB———–bdbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10**

This type of position is fairly common so it is best to know how to deal with it.

First, it should be clear that Red should double. With a 15-pip lead in the race and multiple market-losing sequences not doubling here would be a double blunder.

The interesting question is whether or not can White can take. His thinking should go along these lines:

Red will leave me a shot with 62, 26, 44, 55 and 66. I will hit that 30% of the time so that is 1.5 wins out of 36.

What about the race? Red is nominally 15 pips ahead but that is not a true count. He has six checkers on his 3-pt and four checkers on his 2-pt. that will add approximately 6 pips to his adjusted pip count. In addition, he will have empty 4- and 5-pts in the bear-off so that will create further inefficiencies for him. On the down side he has only two crossovers and two pips to get his checkers home while I have 4 crossovers and 15 pips to roll before I can begin to bear-off.

In the 31 games where he doesn’t leave me a shot, can I win 7.5 of them to bring me up to the nine games I need to win to accept the double? To answer that question requires both experience and judgment but it can be made a lot easier if you have a reference document. Luckily, you will find “Backgammon Races” in the download section of my website: www.chrisbraybackgammon.com

The answer in this particular case is that White can take with relative comfort. The key to learning is then to adjust the position to find out what happens when things change. Move the spare on White’s 4-pt to his 5-pt and he can still take the double but move it to his 6-pt and the position becomes a drop.

In the initial position if we move one of the spare checkers on Red’s 3-pt to his 6-pt the position becomes double/drop because 44,55 and 66 now play safely. So small differences in the position can make a big difference to the cube action – tricky game backgammon.

Rollout Data from Extreme Gammon

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