USBGF OLM 2019-03-15

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aBABB-A-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout18/2* 4/2eq: +1.183
Player:
Opponent:
78.89% (G:47.23% B:0.98%)
21.11% (G:3.57% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.177...+1.190) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 10/4eq: +1.141 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
78.11% (G:36.27% B:1.16%)
21.89% (G:3.62% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.136...+1.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 8/2* 4/2
[ 2] 13/11 10/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2* 4/2

When blitzing, we do not want our opponent to anchor, here we can stop Neil anchoring by making another point and by putting a second checker on the bar. We should play 8/2* 4/2.



Neil Kazaross: 53 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 131
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=b-BB-BB---A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:32:2:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 3/21 715a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-03-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aBABB-A-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 76.30% (G:36.08% B:1.07%) 76.46% (G:37.37% B:1.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 23.70% (G:4.08% B:0.23%) 23.54% (G:4.25% B:0.35%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.844 +1.800
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.085±0.007 (+1.078..+1.092)
     Double/Take:+1.669 (+0.584)±0.011 (+1.658..+1.680)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.085)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 12.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] No Double
[10] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

To quote myself from the last comment: “If Neil does not enter or enters without hitting, we will be too Good to double.” Neil entered without hitting so we are too Good to double.

If we were playing live against a different opponent then I might double if I thought that there was a good chance that they would take.

It is useful to go through the rolls and decide how you would play them. With every 2 except 42 (8/4 13/11) we should hit. Our worst roll is 21 which should be played 8/7 4/2*.

We just have too many rolls here to let Neil off the hook.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aBABB-A-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 3/20 800p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-03-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---aAaD-C-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:33:2:4:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/5*(2) 6/3*(2) eq: +0.907
Player:
Opponent:
71.11% (G:33.36% B:0.99%)
28.89% (G:6.50% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.896...+0.917) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 8/5*(2) eq: +0.771 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
67.17% (G:25.05% B:0.78%)
32.83% (G:6.58% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.762...+0.779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
3.XG Roller++10/4 6/3*(2) eq: +0.653 (-0.253)
Player:
Opponent:
64.42% (G:17.51% B:0.52%)
35.58% (G:5.86% B:0.17%)
4.XG Roller++13/10 8/5*(2) 6/3* eq: +0.592 (-0.314)
Player:
Opponent:
62.87% (G:25.03% B:0.85%)
37.13% (G:9.62% B:0.53%)
5.XG Roller++13/10 8/5* 6/3*(2) eq: +0.550 (-0.357)
Player:
Opponent:
62.00% (G:23.46% B:0.83%)
38.00% (G:9.57% B:0.43%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 8/5*(2) 6/3*(2)
[ 5] 10/4 8/5*(2)
[ 1] 10/4 6/3*(2)
[ 1] 13/10 8/5* 6/3*(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5*(2) 6/3*(2)

We have to hit 8/5*(2) then decide how to use the last two 3’s.

10/4 builds a good board but gives Neil the opportunity to anchor on our 3 point. For that reason, we would rather continue the attack. If Neil does not enter or enters without hitting we will be too Good to double. If Neil enter only one checker but hits, then it will be double / take. It is only if Neil enters both checkers and hits that we will not have a double.

Consider the fact that Neil has not extra inner board points, so getting hit back will not be bad.



Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aBABB-A-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 3/20 715a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-03-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C---cE-A-e-e----A-:0:0:1:52:2:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout115/10 6/4* eq: +0.075
Player:
Opponent:
51.35% (G:13.45% B:0.55%)
48.65% (G:14.54% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.062...+0.087) - [98.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 30 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 6/4* eq: +0.055 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
50.70% (G:13.43% B:0.58%)
49.30% (G:15.31% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.043...+0.068) - [1.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 41 minutes
3.Rollout115/8eq: -0.012 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
49.34% (G:9.95% B:0.33%)
50.66% (G:13.12% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.022...-0.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 13 minutes
4.XG Roller++13/11 13/8eq: -0.062 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
47.85% (G:11.01% B:0.41%)
52.15% (G:14.64% B:0.60%)
5.XG Roller++24/22 13/8eq: -0.068 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
48.17% (G:9.41% B:0.35%)
51.83% (G:14.10% B:0.44%)
6.XG Roller++6/4* 6/1* eq: -0.106 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:
47.03% (G:11.86% B:0.35%)
52.97% (G:16.61% B:0.89%)
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 15/10 6/4*
[16] 15/8
[ 1] 6/4* 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 15/10 6/4*

We have to fight for the 5 and 4 point so we should hit 6/4*. Then 6/1* is too big, so 15/10 is best.

I would make this play if the score was even or if we were ahead in the match.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--A-D-C-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:-1:52:2:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 24/22eq: -0.429
Player:
Opponent:
40.76% (G:9.36% B:0.64%)
59.24% (G:16.77% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.439...-0.419) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/1* eq: -0.467 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
39.56% (G:10.40% B:0.30%)
60.44% (G:15.52% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.479...-0.455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 8/6eq: -0.469 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
40.04% (G:9.87% B:0.45%)
59.96% (G:17.36% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.479...-0.458) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/20 13/11eq: -0.472 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
40.17% (G:10.06% B:0.59%)
59.83% (G:17.43% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.483...-0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.482 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
40.11% (G:9.26% B:0.48%)
59.89% (G:17.85% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.492...-0.473) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 24/22.

Most rolls that missed on their 4 point blot play poorly, and this 52 is no exception. If I enter with a two, I strongly dislike any playable 5. But entering on the 20 point is also dangerous. However, they are unlikely to have more than a 2 point board next turn if they can attack me. I am behind in the position and need an advanced anchor to stabilize. Hitting them would also help me as I’d gain in the race and also gain a tempo to hopefully roll well next turn. All this makes b/20 my 5.

Let’s look at 2’s.

  • 8/6 doesn’t accomplish anything.
  • 13/11 strips the midpoint and while building, I may not get to use it while fending off the attack in their board, so this blot could often be a target later.
  • 20/18 goes from one dangerous spot to another.
  • 6/4 is too loose when I will be attacked.
  • 24/22 looks to be best to me, hoping to make the 22 point anchor if attacked and I miss my shot at their 4 or 5 point. Of course, I could get quickly blitzed, but I think the risk is probably justified.

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---aAaD-C-A-cE---e-e----A-:0:0:1:33:2:4:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-03-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:63:2:4:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/15eq: -0.059
Player:
Opponent:
48.34% (G:11.05% B:0.46%)
51.66% (G:15.35% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.070...-0.049) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 30 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 13/10eq: -0.102 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
47.24% (G:10.71% B:0.44%)
52.76% (G:15.51% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.113...-0.090) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 39 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/15
[21] 24/18 13/10
[ 1] 24/21 24/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 13/10

When ahead in the match, we should run with 24/15. It leads to simpler games with fewer Gammon losses and less volatility.

Here we are behind so we want more gammons and more volatile game so 24/18 13/10 is my play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE-A-d-e----A-:0:0:-1:52:2:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout123/21 13/8eq: -0.159
Player:
Opponent:
46.81% (G:12.73% B:0.55%)
53.19% (G:12.91% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.170...-0.148) - [98.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout123/21 6/1* eq: -0.178 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
46.36% (G:13.13% B:0.44%)
53.64% (G:13.15% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.190...-0.166) - [1.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 6/1* eq: -0.189 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
45.76% (G:12.42% B:0.43%)
54.24% (G:12.38% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.200...-0.178) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 38 minutes
4.Rollout113/6eq: -0.197 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
45.70% (G:12.71% B:0.48%)
54.30% (G:12.98% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.207...-0.186) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes
5.Rollout124/22 13/8eq: -0.202 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
45.77% (G:12.35% B:0.49%)
54.23% (G:12.87% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.213...-0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/21 13/8.

The USBGF Members chose well in playing 24/15 here as in contrast to an opening 63 split, I have more shots at the checker on my 10 point and a spare on the 8 point to make any attack stronger. Had they split, I’d play my 5, 6/1* to take half a roll from them and to try to prevent them linking up on my bar point.

But here, hitting on the ace point looks wrong as they aren’t threatening that much if I don’t hit. Therefore, I play 13/8 and then I prefer 23/21. My stacked position looks awkward, but I retain a spare on my mid so it isn’t that bad yet.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C---cE-A-e-e----A-:0:0:1:52:2:4:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-03-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbCFB---a---a-accbb---:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 88.20% (G:1.12% B:0.00%) 88.93% (G:0.84% B:0.01%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 11.80% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) 11.07% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.774 +1.596
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.996 (-0.004)±0.001 (+0.994..+0.997)
     Double/Take:+1.543 (+0.543)±0.005 (+1.538..+1.549)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 43 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We double and Neil will pass. Set them up for the next game.


Neil Kazaross to play:

Neil Kazaross passes.

I am now down 27 pips and the vast majority of the time they can clear safely past my anchor so I have a huge pass.


USBGF Members win one point, and Neil now leads 7-away/9-away.



Neil Kazaross: 51 24/23 13/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:63:2:4:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-03-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbCBB---bD---aacbbb---:0:0:1:66:1:4:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout113/7(4)eq: +0.997
Player:
Opponent:
87.60% (G:1.27% B:0.00%)
12.40% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.997...+0.998) - [100.0%]
Duration: 52.3 seconds
2.Rollout113/1(2)eq: +0.959 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
75.37% (G:3.02% B:0.06%)
24.63% (G:1.98% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.953...+0.966) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[44] 13/7(4)
[ 1] 13/7(2) 8/2(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7(4)

We rolled a great number which we have to play 13/7(4), then unless Neil rolls a joker, we will double him out next turn.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbCFB---b----aacbbb---:0:0:-1:43:1:4:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/9 8/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.26% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
88.74% (G:0.81% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 54 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 8/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.25% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
88.75% (G:0.89% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.000...-1.000) - [7.1%]
Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout113/9 7/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.20% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
88.80% (G:0.83% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 43 minutes 00 second
4.Rollout18/5 6/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.21% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
88.79% (G:0.88% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.000...-1.000) - [7.1%]
Duration: 50 minutes 21 seconds
5.Rollout113/9 5/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.24% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
88.76% (G:0.92% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 30 minutes 34 seconds
6.Rollout113/6eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.13% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
88.87% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 52 minutes 41 seconds
7.xgRollout18/5 7/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.14% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
88.86% (G:0.88% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 26 minutes 37 seconds
8.Rollout17/4 6/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.14% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
88.86% (G:0.93% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 48 minutes 20 seconds
9.Rollout18/4 6/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.04% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
88.96% (G:0.88% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.000...-1.000) - [7.1%]
Duration: 47 minutes 58 seconds
10.Rollout113/10 7/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.04% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
88.96% (G:0.87% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 32 minutes 24 seconds
11.Rollout18/4 7/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
11.00% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
89.00% (G:0.86% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 27 minutes 19 seconds
12.Rollout113/10 6/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.96% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
89.04% (G:0.85% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 25 minutes 12 seconds
13.Rollout18/4 5/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.84% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
89.16% (G:0.79% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 45 minutes 00 second
14.Rollout18/1eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
10.76% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
89.24% (G:0.79% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.001...-0.999) - [7.1%]
Duration: 50 minutes 00 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 8/5.

Now this has become basically a race so I’ll play the flexible 13/9 8/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbCFB---a---a-accbb---:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-03-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbCBB---bD---aacbbb---:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.09% (G:1.03% B:0.02%) 69.17% (G:1.01% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.91% (G:0.83% B:0.02%) 30.83% (G:0.81% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.384 +0.783
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.647±0.007 (+0.640..+0.654)
     Double/Take:+0.634 (-0.013)±0.008 (+0.626..+0.642)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.353)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:98.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] No Double
[20] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

Years ago, I came up with a rule for doubling standard holding games where your opponent holds your 7, 5 or 4 points – I called it ‘The Rule of 4’.

When you have:

  • 4 or fewer checkers on your mid-point,
  • 15% race lead,
  • A single point like the 8 or 7 point that you can move checkers to,

Then you have double. It has served me well but the danger is applying it when it does not apply. Here we have another point in the outfield so I would rely on a reference position and know that this is close to money double.

Here we are 3 points down in the match playing better player so we want to increase the volatility so we should double here.

P.S. The reason for ‘4 or fewer checkers on your mid-point’ in the Rule of 4, is with more than 4 checkers you cannot lose your market in one roll.”


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbCBB---bD---aacbbb---:0:0:1:66:1:4:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 3/14 930p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-03-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 128
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbC-B---bF---bacbba---:0:0:1:33:1:4:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/7(2)eq: +0.528
Player:
Opponent:
65.49% (G:1.06% B:0.03%)
34.51% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.521...+0.536) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
2.Rollout113/10(4)eq: +0.492 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
63.95% (G:1.49% B:0.04%)
36.05% (G:2.04% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.484...+0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
3.Rollout113/10(3) 6/3eq: +0.487 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
63.75% (G:1.49% B:0.04%)
36.25% (G:2.00% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.479...+0.495) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/7(2)
[11] 13/10(3) 6/3
[ 5] 13/10(4)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7(2)

After the roll we will be ahead in the race by 15 pips. We are not trying to block Neil in, so any move that involves making a point on our 10 point (and blocking Neil’s 5’s) has to be the wrong idea.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 128
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbCBB---bD---bacbba---:0:0:-1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.Rollout17/3 6/5eq: -0.634
Player:
Opponent:
30.73% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
69.27% (G:1.03% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.643...-0.625) - [34.6%]
Duration: 36 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout18/7 6/2eq: -0.634 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
30.76% (G:0.84% B:0.04%)
69.24% (G:1.02% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.643...-0.626) - [32.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 15 seconds
3.xgRollout18/4 7/6eq: -0.635 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
30.80% (G:0.86% B:0.02%)
69.20% (G:1.07% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.644...-0.627) - [24.9%]
Duration: 33 minutes 03 seconds
4.Rollout17/3 5/4eq: -0.639 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
30.63% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
69.37% (G:1.07% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.649...-0.630) - [6.2%]
Duration: 27 minutes 51 seconds
5.Rollout18/4 6/5eq: -0.642 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
30.90% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
69.10% (G:1.07% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.651...-0.634) - [1.4%]
Duration: 57 minutes 39 seconds
6.Rollout18/7 8/4eq: -0.643 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
30.84% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
69.16% (G:1.10% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.651...-0.635) - [0.6%]
Duration: 53 minutes 20 seconds
7.playedRollout18/3eq: -0.645 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
30.95% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
69.05% (G:1.10% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.653...-0.637) - [0.2%]
Duration: 36 minutes 15 seconds
8.Rollout17/2eq: -0.647 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
30.90% (G:0.90% B:0.03%)
69.10% (G:1.09% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.655...-0.639) - [0.1%]
Duration: 42 minutes 17 seconds
9.Rollout18/4 3/2eq: -0.648 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
30.87% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
69.13% (G:1.09% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.656...-0.640) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3.

The natural 8/3 makes the next point in line.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbCBB---bD---aacbbb---:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-03-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BbD-B---cG---c-eb-----:0:0:1:31:1:4:0:11:10
to play 31

1.Rollout16/3 4/3eq: +0.146
Player:
Opponent:
53.38% (G:1.59% B:0.06%)
46.62% (G:2.61% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.142...+0.149) - [92.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 11 minutes
2.playedRollout16/2eq: +0.142 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
53.33% (G:1.50% B:0.06%)
46.67% (G:2.76% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.139...+0.146) - [8.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 45 minutes
3.Rollout24/3 4/1eq: +0.119 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
52.70% (G:1.57% B:0.04%)
47.30% (G:2.57% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.111...+0.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
4.Rollout213/9eq: -0.020 (-0.166)
Player:
Opponent:
49.25% (G:3.25% B:0.13%)
50.75% (G:6.70% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.028...-0.012) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 6/2
[12] 6/3 4/3
[ 2] 13/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/2

We need to just make either of the slotting plays 6/2 or 6/3 4/3.

I would probably make 6/2 then if we roll 62, at least we make the 2 point but this is not a big deal either way.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--A-BbC-B---cG---c-eb-----:0:0:-1:62:1:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 6/4eq: -0.161
Player:
Opponent:
46.10% (G:2.85% B:0.07%)
53.90% (G:1.48% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.164...-0.158) - [99.9%]
Duration: 13 hours 40 minutes
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.170 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
45.89% (G:2.86% B:0.06%)
54.11% (G:1.64% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.173...-0.167) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 hours 39 minutes
3.Rollout28/2 6/4eq: -0.174 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
45.82% (G:3.36% B:0.12%)
54.18% (G:2.09% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.182...-0.167) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 6/4.

Now I play 13/7 6/4 aiming to soon make more good points.



USBGF Members: 64 13/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbC-B---bF---cadba----:0:0:-1:52:1:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout18/3 6/4eq: -0.289
Player:
Opponent:
42.22% (G:2.12% B:0.04%)
57.78% (G:1.34% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.292...-0.286) - [61.3%]
Duration: 11 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout17/2 6/4eq: -0.290 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
42.16% (G:2.24% B:0.04%)
57.84% (G:1.45% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.293...-0.287) - [21.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 28 minutes
3.Rollout18/3 7/5eq: -0.290 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
42.15% (G:2.26% B:0.04%)
57.85% (G:1.47% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.293...-0.287) - [17.7%]
Duration: 11 hours 04 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/4.

I simply cover my 4 point and slot the next point in line. I could run a checker to the midpoint in relative safety, but I think that would be a blunder when down a few pips.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 128
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABbC-B---bF---bacbba---:0:0:1:33:1:4:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-03-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bE-C---cG---dae------:0:0:1:42:1:4:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: +0.212
Player:
Opponent:
55.41% (G:1.53% B:0.06%)
44.59% (G:2.06% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.209...+0.215) - [70.6%]
Duration: 15 hours 57 minutes
2.Rollout16/4 6/2eq: +0.211 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
55.33% (G:1.48% B:0.05%)
44.67% (G:2.00% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.208...+0.214) - [29.4%]
Duration: 16 hours 37 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 8/4 6/4
[ 2] 6/4 6/2
[ 1] 13/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4 6/4

After the roll we will be up 9 pips in the race so we could just play 6/4 6/2 keeping our spare on the 8 point. If we had more of a lead this would be my play.

The default play is 8/4 6/4 which gives us a point but leaves a bad 62. If say Neil makes his 5 point and we roll 62 we would have to play 8/6 8/2.

I would not argue with either play in a chouette but here we should make the 4 point and risk the 62.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BbD-B---cG---dae------:0:0:-1:32:1:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/5 7/5eq: -0.329
Player:
Opponent:
41.06% (G:1.90% B:0.04%)
58.94% (G:1.41% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.332...-0.326) - [95.4%]
Duration: 13 hours 54 minutes
2.Rollout17/4 6/4eq: -0.333 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
40.96% (G:1.89% B:0.05%)
59.04% (G:1.46% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.336...-0.330) - [3.2%]
Duration: 13 hours 24 minutes
3.Rollout113/11 8/5eq: -0.334 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
40.95% (G:2.07% B:0.06%)
59.05% (G:1.71% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.337...-0.331) - [0.9%]
Duration: 13 hours 02 minutes
4.Rollout18/5 6/4eq: -0.334 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
40.90% (G:2.19% B:0.06%)
59.10% (G:1.84% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.337...-0.331) - [0.5%]
Duration: 13 hours 38 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 7/5.

I have a couple of plays here: (1) I can just make my 5 point, or (2) I can be more optimistic and play the flexible 8/5 6/4. Normally in this situation the more flexible play is to be strongly considered, but here I think that allows them to clearly play 13/7 6/4 with their 62. If make my 5 point, they have more risk if they play their otherwise ugly 62 by slotting instead of breaking their 8 point. Also if I slot, maybe they’ll play 65 by pulling down two checkers.

Note that making my 4 point is also to be considered but it can’t be far wrong to just make my 5 point so I’ll just do it.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BbD-B---cG---c-eb-----:0:0:1:31:1:4:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-03-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 9
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 4
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-D--------------------c---:1:-1:-1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 24.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.507 +1.033
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.610 (-0.389)±0.010 (+0.600..+0.621)
xg Redouble/Take:+1.000±0.017 (+0.983..+1.016)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.000)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
46656 Games rolled.
Dice Seed: 18656682
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: 5-ply
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:51.5%
Duration: 0.6 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] Pass
[12] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

This is tough so I will again do it just as I would over the board. My thinking may be flawed and I may be wrong, but here goes.

First, from memory I know that the dead cube take point is 25%.

Next, there are 32 rolls where we get to roll. On 6 rolls we win instantly, so 32 * 6 = 192. Using my rule of 8 which is in the Prime Time magazine, 190 = roughly 15.2% of the time.

Next, can we win this 9.8% of the time when Neil rolls a 2 or 1 except 22? That’s 19 rolls (some of these rolls let us win by rolling the winning double above). It feels close, so if it is close we look at the opponent factor. If we think that we are the better player we should drop, but obviously here as we are playing Neil we should take.

Let’s increase the volatility and Take.

The additional factor is that we are 1 point behind so this also points to taking.

Here is another way I would do it over the board.

Neil’s pip count is 9. To get his EPC is Pip count * 0.7 + 10 = (9 * 0.7) + 10 = 6.3 + 10 = 16.3.

XG says it is 16.4 so the above calculation is very accurate.

To work out our LTP (last take point) we need to figure out how many rolls this equates to. The formula is 7n + 1, so working backwards we subtract 1 from 16.3 = 15.3, then 15.3/7 = 2 plus 1.3/7

1.3/7 = 0.2 so we get 2.2

We subtract the constant of 3 always so 2.2 – 3 = -0.8

From Neil’s EPC of 16.3 – 0.8 = 15.5, this is our LTP.

Our EPC for this pure 2 roll position is (7*2) + 1 = 15. As this is within 1 pip of 15.5 it is a double, and as 15 is below 15.5 it is a take.


Jason Lee recommends: Take

Some relevant match equities, using the Kazaross-Rockwell Match Equity Table:

If we drop the two cube, we’ll be 10-away/7-away, which is 34.4%.

If we win a four cube, we’ll be 6-away/9-away, which is 66.8%.

If we lose a four cube, we’ll be 10-away/5-away, which is 23.3%.

Can the cube get to 8? Yes! If Neil rolls 21, we have a redouble to 8, and Neil can take, so we have to put that in:

If we win an eight cube, we’ll be 2-away/9-away, which is 90.2%.

If we lose an eight cube, we’ll be 10-away/Crawford, which is 4.1%.

Now we’ll just add up all the probabilities.

What’s our probability of winning a four cube?

  • Neil doesn’t take all three checkers off (but not counting 21) and then we roll doubles: 30/36 * 1/6
  • Neil rolls 11, 31, 41, 51, 61, we roll non doubles, and then Neil fails to bear off (any ace): 9/36 * 5/6 * 11/36
  • Neil rolls 32, 42, 52, 62, we roll non doubles, and then Neil fails to bear off (only 21 fails): 8/36 * 5/6 * 2/36
  • Total: 30/36 * 1/6 + 9/36 * 5/6 * 11/36 + 8/36 * 5/6 * 2/36= 1655 / 7776
  • Match equity when this happens: 66.8%

What’s our probability of losing a four cube?

  • Neil takes all three checkers off right now: 4/36
  • Neil gets down to a no-miss position (22, 34, 35, 36, 45, 46, 56), and we roll non doubles: 13/36 * 5/6
  • Neil rolls 11, 31, 41, 51, 61, we roll non doubles, and then Neil bears off (avoid any ace): 9/36 * 5/6 * 25/36
  • Neil rolls 32, 42, 52, 62, we roll non doubles, and then Neil bears off (avoid 21): 8/36 * 5/6 * 34/36
  • Total: 4/36 + 13/36 * 5/6 + 9/36 * 5/6 * 25/36 + 8/36 * 5/6 * 34/36 = 5689 / 7776
  • Match equity when this happens: 23.3%

What’s our probability of winning an eight cube?

  • Neil rolls 21, (Redouble to 8 and take), and we roll doubles: 2/36 * 1/6
  • Neil rolls 21, (Redouble to 8 and take), we roll non doubles, and then Neil fails to bear off (any ace/deuce except 22): 2/36 * 5/6 * 19/36
  • Total: 2/36 * 1/6 + 2/36 * 5/6 * 19/36 = 262 / 7776
  • Match equity when this happens: 90.2%

What’s our probability of losing an eight cube?

  • Neil rolls 21, (Redouble to 8 and take), we roll non doubles, and then Neil bears off (avoid ace/deuce except 22): 2/36 * 5/6 * 17/36
  • Total: 2/36 * 5/6 * 17/36 = 170 / 7776
  • Match equity when this happens: 4.1%

Therefore, when we take, our probability of winning the match is:
(1655/7776) * 66.8% + (5689/7776) * 23.3% + (262/7776) * 90.2% + (170/7776) * 4.1% = 34.4%.

If we pass, our match winning chances are 34.4%.

That means this take/pass decision rides on the edge of a coin. The Kazaross-Rockwell MET is available with more significant figures, but that’s not going to swing it. It’s not helpful to know that this is a take because the two figures differ in the 5th decimal place.

In this particular match, we know the USBGF Members are underdogs. We’ve played Neil in ten matches before this, and every time, Neil has outplayed the team in PR. That ends the decision making process for this match, it’s clear that this is a TAKE.

Is anybody going to do these calculations in the context of an OLM. Yes! Do it! However, nobody is going to do these kinds of calculations over the board.

How will you decide this in the heat of battle? We can remember this position as a reference position. Let’s run through the same calculations for money:

If we pass, we lose 2: -2

If we take, our expected winnings are:

(1655/7776) * (+4) + (5689/7776) * (-4) + (262/7776) * (+8) + (170/7776) * (-8) = -1.98

That means this position is a tiny take for money. Over the board, if we remember this reference position, then we can make adjustments.


Neil Kazaross recommends: Take

About 40 years ago I calculated many of these simple bearoffs so I know that for money I have a huge cube and they have a bare take. I can actually win a tad more than 75% but their recube vig if I roll 21 pushes them very slightly into take territory.

At this score, I don’t expect any serious differences from the money result so I think that the USBGF Members should take this. One should be happy to take what is basically a flip a coin decision for a big cube when playing vs a very strong opponent. I surely think that taking this cube is their best chance to win this match.


Neil Kazaross wins two points and leads 7-away/10-away.



USBGF Members: 65 24/13
Neil Kazaross: 54 24/20 13/8
USBGF Members: 65 24/13


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dG---d-e------:0:0:-1:64:1:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/20 13/7eq: -0.323
Player:
Opponent:
41.20% (G:1.43% B:0.04%)
58.80% (G:1.26% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.326...-0.320) - [93.2%]
Duration: 15 hours 16 minutes
2.xgRollout124/20 8/2eq: -0.326 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
41.11% (G:1.63% B:0.04%)
58.89% (G:1.48% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.329...-0.323) - [6.4%]
Duration: 14 hours 31 minutes
3.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.329 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
42.12% (G:8.92% B:0.25%)
57.88% (G:8.72% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.332...-0.325) - [0.4%]
Duration: 13 hours 17 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20687860
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 13/7.

If I anchor, I will be down 3 pips and they are on roll in a position with so many spare checkers to play, that it will usually be quite a while, if ever before they expose a blot. My Golden Point anchor will usually cause them to misplace some checkers, so I am not as bad off as if I trailed in a pure race by 3 pips. Therefore, I am sure that for money I should make my 2 point here and await contact and hope to hit. Of course, that risks getting attacked at some point along with risking jokers to point on me.

So if I don’t anchor, both sides win more gammons. This may not be the best plan for me at this score, as increased gammon rates decrease both my ability to cube and to take and especially to recube.

I’ll wimp it with 24/20 13/7.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bE-C---cG---dae------:0:0:1:42:1:4:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-03-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 54
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDAaCA--B---------bcbbcb-:1:-1:1:41:1:2:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/1eq: +0.194
Player:
Opponent:
65.09% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
34.91% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.190...+0.198) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 3/2eq: +0.171 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
63.73% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
36.27% (G:0.55% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.167...+0.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93102183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[44] 6/1
[ 5] 6/2 3/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1

Again we just need to play safe. Neil will be forced to run with any 6 or weaken his board with any 5.

So we have to play 6/2, then ask ourselves what is the best 1? This could end up as a race so we want to leave the checker on the 3 point where it is so we should play 2/1.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 49
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-EDAaC---B---------bcbbcb-:1:-1:-1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.222
Player:
Opponent:
33.63% (G:1.00% B:0.02%)
66.37% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.226...-0.218) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 5/1eq: -0.238 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
32.85% (G:1.03% B:0.02%)
67.15% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.242...-0.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds
3.Rollout16/2 5/2eq: -0.252 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
32.17% (G:0.93% B:0.01%)
67.83% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.255...-0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 44 seconds
4.Rollout15/2 5/1eq: -0.274 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
31.25% (G:0.88% B:0.01%)
68.75% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.277...-0.270) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
5.Rollout15/1 4/1eq: -0.291 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
30.27% (G:0.81% B:0.01%)
69.73% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.295...-0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds
6.Rollout16/2 4/1eq: -0.343 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
28.22% (G:0.68% B:0.01%)
71.78% (G:0.56% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.346...-0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds
7.Rollout121/18 5/1eq: -0.410 (-0.188)
Player:
Opponent:
26.01% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
73.99% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.414...-0.406) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.8 seconds
8.Rollout121/18 6/2eq: -0.421 (-0.199)
Player:
Opponent:
25.04% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
74.96% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.424...-0.417) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.8 seconds
9.Rollout121/14eq: -0.424 (-0.202)
Player:
Opponent:
24.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
75.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.426...-0.421) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93102183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3 6/2.

If I stay, I have to move 7 pips in my board which I think wastes about 3 effective pips in the race. I also have to break my closed board, but if I hit and they dance it looks like a cube. With them having so many bad rolls, I must stay.



USBGF Members: 64 9/5 9/3
Neil Kazaross: 55 21/6 5/0
USBGF Members: 64 5/1 5/0
Neil Kazaross: 61 6/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 44 5/1(2) 3/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 43 4/0 3/0
USBGF Members: 41 2/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 42 4/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 43 2/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 22 5/3 2/0(3)
USBGF Members: 52 2/0 1/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 15
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 6
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-F------------------a-c-a-:1:-1:-1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 63.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.261 +0.526
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.430±0.000 (+0.430..+0.430)
     Redouble/Take:+0.371 (-0.060)±0.000 (+0.370..+0.371)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.570)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93102183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 0.5 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I have too many chances to roll small and miss twice here over the next 3 rolls to recube this. I just don’t think I can win this often enough to justify cubing when they have a pure 3 roll position.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 15
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 6
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-F------------------a-c-a-:1:-1:-1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout15/Off 1/Offeq: +0.703
Player:
Opponent:
64.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.703...+0.703) - [50.0%]
Duration: 3.8 seconds
2.Rollout15/Off 3/2eq: +0.703
Player:
Opponent:
64.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.703...+0.703) - [50.0%]
Duration: 3.5 seconds
 
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93102183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/0 1/0.

It is never wrong to use an ace to bear off from the ace point, so I take two checkers off and will then have a nice cube if they don’t roll doubles.



USBGF Members: 51 1/0(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 9
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 4
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-D--------------------c---:1:-1:-1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross redoubles to 4.


USBGF OLM 2019-03-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 74
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBAbCCB-B---------bbbbcb-:1:-1:1:55:1:2:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout17/2(2) 6/1(2)eq: -0.069
Player:
Opponent:
50.85% (G:0.44% B:0.00%)
49.15% (G:4.07% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.072...-0.067) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout17/2 6/1(3)eq: -0.156 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
47.10% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
52.90% (G:4.57% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.159...-0.153) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] 7/2(2) 6/1(2)
[ 1] 7/2 6/1(3)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/2(2) 6/1(2)

The trickier the play, the more I need to be convinced it is correct.

I see no reason why we should leave more shots than necessary here, so 7/2(2) 6/1(2).

On Thursday I was at the Porta Nigra Invitational tournament in Trier, Germany. I was only able to play in the one day Speed Gammon event. You only had 9 seconds per move and a time bank of 2 minutes total and were playing 5 point matches. So, you would make the above move and hit your clock without wasting any time or too much thought.

I hope that Speed Gammon events become more common as side events as they are fun and fast. The particular event was well run by Tobias and the venue was in a Mercedes Benz car dealership.

I particularly liked the fact that it was Double Elimination with No rebuys and it used the Modified Swiss format for deciding who you would play next. I would love to see a 10 second per move, 2 minute time bank and 7 point matches. That would make it more skillful.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 54
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDAbCA--B---------bbbbcb-:1:-1:-1:44:1:2:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout121/5eq: -0.309
Player:
Opponent:
30.92% (G:0.90% B:0.02%)
69.08% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.312...-0.307) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds
2.Rollout121/9 6/2eq: -0.368 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
27.61% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
72.39% (G:0.46% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.371...-0.365) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds
3.Rollout121/9 5/1eq: -0.387 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
26.75% (G:0.84% B:0.01%)
73.25% (G:0.56% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.390...-0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout121/13 6/2(2)eq: -0.398 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
25.90% (G:0.74% B:0.01%)
74.10% (G:0.53% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.401...-0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 34 seconds
5.Rollout121/13 5/1(2)eq: -0.424 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
24.68% (G:0.56% B:0.01%)
75.32% (G:0.51% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.427...-0.421) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds
6.Rollout121/13 6/2 5/1eq: -0.518 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:
21.42% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)
78.58% (G:2.26% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.521...-0.515) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds
7.Rollout16/2(2) 5/1(2)eq: -0.538 (-0.229)
Player:
Opponent:
20.22% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
79.78% (G:1.24% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.541...-0.535) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 33 seconds
8.Rollout121/17 6/2(2) 5/1eq: -0.570 (-0.261)
Player:
Opponent:
20.00% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
80.00% (G:4.16% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.573...-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 33 seconds
9.Rollout121/17 21/9eq: -0.581 (-0.271)
Player:
Opponent:
18.33% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
81.67% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.584...-0.578) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
10.Rollout121/17 6/2 5/1(2)eq: -0.583 (-0.273)
Player:
Opponent:
19.53% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
80.47% (G:4.53% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.586...-0.579) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 33 seconds
11.Rollout121/13(2)eq: -0.680 (-0.370)
Player:
Opponent:
13.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.681...-0.678) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93102183
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/5.

I want to stay back and keep a closed board since they have quite a few bad 6’s and since many other rolls will force them to waste pips to avoid a blot. Therefore 21/5 is indicated for now.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 54
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DDAaCA--B---------bcbbcb-:1:-1:1:41:1:2:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-03-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BAAbBCBB----B--a-abbbbba-:1:-1:1:63:1:2:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout18/5 8/2eq: +0.318
Player:
Opponent:
69.22% (G:2.22% B:0.04%)
30.78% (G:1.21% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.315...+0.322) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 6/3eq: +0.277 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
67.22% (G:2.83% B:0.17%)
32.78% (G:2.63% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.274...+0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 08 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 8/5 8/2
[ 7] 13/7 6/3
[ 1] 8/2 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5 8/2

You usually need a really good reason to pay now, like having insufficient timing – here that does not apply and I can see no reason to pay now. Let’s delay again with 8/5 8/2, which improves our board and leaves us ahead in the race by 17 pips.



Neil Kazaross: 42 7/1
USBGF Members: 22 13/9(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 93
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 74
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBAbCCB-B------a--bbbbbb-:1:-1:-1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout19/2eq: -0.559
Player:
Opponent:
19.81% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
80.19% (G:1.44% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.562...-0.556) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout19/5 6/3eq: -0.572 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
19.02% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
80.98% (G:1.75% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.575...-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.589 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
18.20% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
81.80% (G:1.72% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.593...-0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout19/5 4/1eq: -0.590 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
18.46% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
81.54% (G:1.81% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.593...-0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 22 seconds
5.Rollout19/6 5/1eq: -0.592 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
18.36% (G:0.40% B:0.01%)
81.64% (G:1.79% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.595...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 51 seconds
6.Rollout16/3 5/1eq: -0.612 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
17.37% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)
82.63% (G:1.84% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.615...-0.609) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
7.Rollout121/14eq: -0.619 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
18.26% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
81.74% (G:2.75% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.622...-0.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/2.

Down 12 pips after this roll, I think I have to bide my time and stay with 9/2.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 74
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBAbCCB-B---------bbbbcb-:1:-1:1:55:1:2:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABbBCCB----B-aa-abbbbb--:1:-1:1:62:1:2:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout17/1 3/1eq: +0.311
Player:
Opponent:
69.26% (G:2.14% B:0.04%)
30.74% (G:1.31% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.310...+0.313) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout18/6 8/2eq: +0.303 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
68.68% (G:2.01% B:0.05%)
31.32% (G:1.11% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.301...+0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
3.Rollout213/5eq: +0.270 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
67.84% (G:1.63% B:0.03%)
32.16% (G:2.24% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.266...+0.274) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout213/11 13/7eq: +0.269 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
68.05% (G:1.46% B:0.04%)
31.95% (G:2.29% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.265...+0.273) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 40 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 7/1 3/1
[15] 13/5
[11] 8/6 8/2
[ 2] 13/11 13/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/1 3/1

Neil has a pure 5 point board. Getting hit is fatal.

So the choice is between 7/1 3/1 and 8/6 8/2. Destroying our 4 prime with 8/6 8/2 cannot be right, so by a process of elimination, the best play is 7/1 3/1.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BAAbBCBB----B-aa-abbbbb--:1:-1:-1:63:1:2:0:11:10
to play 63

1.xgRollout110/4 9/6eq: -0.323
Player:
Opponent:
30.29% (G:1.44% B:0.04%)
69.71% (G:2.38% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.324...-0.321) - [92.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout19/6 7/1eq: -0.325 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
30.26% (G:1.61% B:0.04%)
69.74% (G:2.57% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.326...-0.323) - [4.7%]
Duration: 54 minutes 32 seconds
3.playedRollout110/1eq: -0.325 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
30.42% (G:1.55% B:0.03%)
69.58% (G:2.53% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.326...-0.323) - [2.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/1.

The next thing I need to do is to close my board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BAAbBCBB----B--a-abbbbba-:1:-1:1:63:1:2:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbCCCC----B-ba-abbbba--:1:-1:1:53:1:2:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout18/5 7/2eq: +0.325
Player:
Opponent:
70.17% (G:1.89% B:0.05%)
29.83% (G:1.16% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.321...+0.329) - [99.8%]
Duration: 20 minutes 35 seconds
2.playedRollout18/3 5/2eq: +0.317 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
69.75% (G:1.86% B:0.05%)
30.25% (G:1.19% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.312...+0.321) - [0.2%]
Duration: 18 minutes 58 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 6/1eq: +0.312 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
69.56% (G:1.79% B:0.04%)
30.44% (G:1.24% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.308...+0.316) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 25 seconds
4.Rollout17/2 6/3eq: +0.312 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
69.57% (G:1.78% B:0.04%)
30.43% (G:1.24% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.308...+0.316) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 04 seconds
5.Rollout17/2 5/2eq: +0.308 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
69.44% (G:1.80% B:0.04%)
30.56% (G:1.24% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.304...+0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 00 second
6.Rollout16/1 5/2eq: +0.304 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
69.28% (G:1.90% B:0.04%)
30.72% (G:1.22% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.300...+0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 05 seconds
7.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: +0.304 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
69.33% (G:1.69% B:0.04%)
30.67% (G:1.22% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.300...+0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 31 seconds
8.Rollout113/8 6/3eq: +0.303 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
69.36% (G:3.39% B:0.29%)
30.64% (G:2.16% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.299...+0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 24 seconds
9.Rollout113/5eq: +0.300 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
69.38% (G:2.71% B:0.17%)
30.62% (G:2.10% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.296...+0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] 8/3 5/2
[ 4] 7/2 6/3
[ 3] 8/5 7/2
[ 2] 13/8 6/3
[ 2] 8/3 6/3
[ 1] 7/2 5/2
[ 1] 13/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 5/2

Make a point, slot a point sounds good to me – 8/3 5/2. We preserve a 6 so that we are not forced to break a point with a 6 before we want to.

Note that we will be up 17 pips in the race after the roll.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABbBCCB----B-ba-abbbba--:1:-1:-1:22:1:2:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout110/2eq: -0.337
Player:
Opponent:
29.55% (G:1.22% B:0.03%)
70.45% (G:1.86% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.339...-0.335) - [98.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
2.Rollout210/4 9/7eq: -0.342 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
29.15% (G:1.30% B:0.03%)
70.85% (G:2.07% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.346...-0.338) - [1.3%]
Duration: 14 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout110/8 10/6 9/7eq: -0.342 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
29.35% (G:1.36% B:0.04%)
70.65% (G:2.15% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.344...-0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
4.Rollout210/8(2) 9/5eq: -0.343 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
29.07% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
70.93% (G:2.23% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.347...-0.339) - [0.4%]
Duration: 13 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout210/8 10/6 7/5eq: -0.346 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
29.08% (G:1.33% B:0.03%)
70.92% (G:2.34% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.350...-0.342) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 12 seconds
6.Rollout210/6 9/5eq: -0.347 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
29.07% (G:1.38% B:0.04%)
70.93% (G:2.37% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.351...-0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 55 seconds
7.Rollout210/6 9/7 4/2eq: -0.348 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
29.04% (G:1.40% B:0.03%)
70.96% (G:2.39% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.352...-0.344) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/2.

Now I’ll make my 5 point prime/board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 108
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 99
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABbBCCB----B-aa-abbbbb--:1:-1:1:62:1:2:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDDC---bB-a--abbbba--:1:-1:1:32:1:2:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout17/5 6/3eq: +0.315
Player:
Opponent:
69.73% (G:1.83% B:0.06%)
30.27% (G:1.00% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.313...+0.316) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
2.Rollout18/3eq: +0.309 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
69.51% (G:1.83% B:0.05%)
30.49% (G:1.02% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.308...+0.311) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
3.Rollout18/5 7/5eq: +0.308 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
69.49% (G:1.82% B:0.05%)
30.51% (G:1.03% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.306...+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
4.Rollout27/2eq: +0.306 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
69.46% (G:1.97% B:0.05%)
30.54% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.302...+0.311) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 06 seconds
5.Rollout26/1eq: +0.299 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
69.07% (G:2.02% B:0.07%)
30.93% (G:1.15% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.295...+0.303) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 7/5 6/3
[ 3] 8/3
[ 1] 8/5 7/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3

In this position we should simply play 8/3. We will be up 16 pips after the roll so we are not trying to attack Neil, but if he catches up, we would like to have made our board in order when/if we have to attack so 8/3 looks good.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbCCCC---bB-a--abbbba--:1:-1:-1:43:1:2:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.354
Player:
Opponent:
28.58% (G:1.06% B:0.03%)
71.42% (G:1.96% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.356...-0.353) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
2.Rollout110/6 5/2eq: -0.361 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
28.30% (G:1.07% B:0.02%)
71.70% (G:2.08% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.363...-0.360) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
3.Rollout110/6 7/4eq: -0.362 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
28.34% (G:1.06% B:0.03%)
71.66% (G:2.09% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.363...-0.360) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
4.Rollout110/3eq: -0.362 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
28.32% (G:1.02% B:0.03%)
71.68% (G:2.07% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.364...-0.360) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 13/9.

I am running out of time to usefully retain my midpoint without harming my board situation. They have a couple turns, assuming they cannot clear their midpoint, before my midpoint even becomes helpful to me, since they have plenty of spares.

This leads me to clear my midpoint now and remain flexible and avoid going deep into my board or being forced to blot with a 61 if I bring both checkers in. If they want to leave me a 9 shot, so be it.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbCCCC----B-ba-abbbba--:1:-1:1:53:1:2:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBCA--cC---aacbba---:1:-1:1:62:1:2:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 9/7eq: +0.443
Player:
Opponent:
75.15% (G:1.79% B:0.04%)
24.85% (G:0.88% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.439...+0.447) - [100.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 8/6eq: +0.432 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
74.66% (G:1.90% B:0.05%)
25.34% (G:0.96% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.428...+0.436) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 33 seconds
3.Rollout19/7 8/2eq: +0.431 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
74.63% (G:1.77% B:0.04%)
25.37% (G:0.90% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.427...+0.435) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 18 seconds
4.Rollout19/1eq: +0.427 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
74.44% (G:1.83% B:0.03%)
25.56% (G:0.93% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.423...+0.431) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 45 seconds
5.Rollout113/11 9/3eq: +0.379 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
72.27% (G:3.93% B:0.32%)
27.73% (G:2.55% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.374...+0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 13/7 9/7
[ 1] 9/7 8/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDDC---cB---aacbba---:1:-1:-1:33:1:2:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10 8/2 6/3eq: -0.384
Player:
Opponent:
27.24% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
72.76% (G:1.67% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.386...-0.383) - [98.8%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes
2.Rollout113/4 6/3eq: -0.387 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
27.10% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
72.90% (G:1.74% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.389...-0.386) - [0.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
3.Rollout113/10(2) 13/7eq: -0.388 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
27.06% (G:0.80% B:0.02%)
72.94% (G:1.61% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.389...-0.386) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes
4.Rollout113/7 8/5 6/3eq: -0.388 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
27.06% (G:0.85% B:0.02%)
72.94% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.389...-0.386) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
5.Rollout113/4 8/5eq: -0.388 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
27.07% (G:0.93% B:0.02%)
72.93% (G:1.87% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.389...-0.386) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
6.Rollout113/7 8/2eq: -0.389 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
27.07% (G:0.91% B:0.03%)
72.93% (G:1.96% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.391...-0.387) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
7.Rollout18/2 7/4 6/3eq: -0.390 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
27.00% (G:0.86% B:0.02%)
73.00% (G:1.81% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.392...-0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
8.Rollout213/10 8/2 7/4eq: -0.391 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
27.00% (G:0.88% B:0.02%)
73.00% (G:1.92% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.395...-0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 32 seconds
9.Rollout213/10 8/5 7/4 6/3eq: -0.391 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
27.01% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
72.99% (G:1.79% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.395...-0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 05 seconds
10.Rollout28/2 6/3 5/2eq: -0.394 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
26.93% (G:0.97% B:0.02%)
73.07% (G:1.91% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.398...-0.390) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 05 seconds
11.Rollout213/4 7/4eq: -0.395 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
26.90% (G:0.93% B:0.02%)
73.10% (G:2.07% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.399...-0.391) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 38 seconds
12.Rollout213/7 6/3 5/2eq: -0.395 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
26.92% (G:0.92% B:0.02%)
73.08% (G:2.07% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.399...-0.391) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 59 seconds
13.Rollout213/10 6/3 5/2(2)eq: -0.395 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
26.83% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
73.17% (G:1.80% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.399...-0.391) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 52 seconds
14.Rollout213/10 7/1 6/3eq: -0.396 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
26.83% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
73.17% (G:1.94% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.400...-0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 37 seconds
15.Rollout213/10 7/4 6/3 5/2eq: -0.396 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
26.86% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
73.14% (G:2.19% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.400...-0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 05 seconds
16.Rollout213/10 8/2 5/2eq: -0.397 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
26.90% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
73.10% (G:2.09% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.400...-0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 58 seconds
17.Rollout213/1eq: -0.398 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
26.73% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
73.27% (G:2.09% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.402...-0.394) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 14 seconds
18.Rollout28/5 7/1 6/3eq: -0.398 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
26.73% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
73.27% (G:2.01% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.402...-0.394) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 10 seconds
19.Rollout213/7 6/3(2)eq: -0.399 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
26.67% (G:0.92% B:0.02%)
73.33% (G:2.07% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.403...-0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 45 seconds
20.Rollout213/7 5/2(2)eq: -0.399 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
26.68% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
73.32% (G:2.07% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.403...-0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 42 seconds
21.Rollout213/4 5/2eq: -0.399 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
26.61% (G:0.77% B:0.02%)
73.39% (G:1.73% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.403...-0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds
22.Rollout213/7 6/3 4/1eq: -0.401 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
26.60% (G:0.88% B:0.02%)
73.40% (G:2.06% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.405...-0.397) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 06 seconds
23.Rollout213/10 7/4 6/3(2)eq: -0.402 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
26.64% (G:0.90% B:0.05%)
73.36% (G:2.20% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.406...-0.398) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds
24.Rollout213/10 8/5 7/1eq: -0.403 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
26.58% (G:0.81% B:0.02%)
73.42% (G:2.09% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.406...-0.399) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 05 seconds
25.Rollout213/10 8/5 6/3(2)eq: -0.403 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
26.63% (G:0.97% B:0.02%)
73.37% (G:2.31% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.407...-0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 07 seconds
26.Rollout28/2 7/4 5/2eq: -0.404 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
26.55% (G:0.92% B:0.02%)
73.45% (G:2.17% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.408...-0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 58 seconds
27.Rollout213/10 8/5 6/3 4/1eq: -0.404 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
26.58% (G:0.88% B:0.02%)
73.42% (G:2.22% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.408...-0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 32 seconds
28.Rollout28/2 7/1eq: -0.406 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
26.46% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
73.54% (G:2.29% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.410...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 36 seconds
29.Rollout213/10 7/4 5/2(2)eq: -0.408 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
26.31% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
73.69% (G:2.21% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.412...-0.404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 05 seconds
30.Rollout28/2 6/3(2)eq: -0.409 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
26.31% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
73.69% (G:2.25% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.413...-0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 22 seconds
31.Rollout213/7 8/5 4/1eq: -0.409 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
26.36% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
73.64% (G:2.26% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.413...-0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 8/2 6/3.

It hardly matters what I do as long as I make a reasonable play, but the best idea should be for me to try to make a 5 prime home board for now.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDDC---bB-a--abbbba--:1:-1:1:32:1:2:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBCA--cC---aacbba---:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.34% (G:2.26% B:0.06%) 75.69% (G:1.89% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.66% (G:1.02% B:0.03%) 24.31% (G:0.90% B:0.03%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.520 +1.084
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.889 (-0.044)±0.006 (+0.883..+0.895)
played Double/Take:+0.933±0.008 (+0.924..+0.941)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.067)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] Double
[ 7] No Double


Neil Kazaross to play:

Neil Kazaross takes.

This is a rather clear take for money. In a straight race if the pip count was 120-134, I’d have a flip a coin drop/take decision. Here I am only 1 pip worse than that. Experience tells me that the value of my 21 point anchor is enough to make this a take. The anchor is blocked somewhat and may be further blocked for a while if they can make their 9 point, but the anchor also provides harassment value as they try to come home and once in a while they will have an accident and get hit.

The score has only a slight effect on my decision as my take point is fractionally higher than normal and my recube vig very slightly less. So if this were that straight 120-134 pip race I’d pass at this score. But my chances are a bit better than that so I take.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBCA--cC---aacbba---:1:-1:1:62:1:2:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBC---cC-A-b-dbb----:0:0:1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout115/9eq: +0.454
Player:
Opponent:
62.78% (G:4.14% B:0.16%)
37.22% (G:5.23% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.446...+0.463) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
2.Rollout115/10 6/5eq: +0.408 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
61.33% (G:5.12% B:0.20%)
38.67% (G:6.01% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.399...+0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
3.Rollout115/10 8/7eq: +0.376 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
60.63% (G:4.54% B:0.18%)
39.37% (G:6.09% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.368...+0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
4.Rollout115/14 13/8eq: +0.313 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
59.18% (G:4.43% B:0.19%)
40.82% (G:6.71% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.304...+0.321) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[42] 15/9
[ 2] 15/10 6/5
[ 1] 15/14 13/8
[ 1] 8/3 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBCA--cC---b-dbb----:0:0:-1:31:1:2:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/7 6/3eq: -0.939
Player:
Opponent:
24.24% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
75.76% (G:1.83% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.942...-0.935) - [64.2%]
Duration: 4 hours 19 minutes
2.xgRollout16/5 6/3eq: -0.941 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
24.20% (G:0.85% B:0.03%)
75.80% (G:1.86% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.944...-0.937) - [13.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes
3.Rollout113/9eq: -0.941 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
24.21% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
75.79% (G:1.86% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.944...-0.938) - [9.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 27 minutes
4.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: -0.942 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
24.20% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
75.80% (G:1.85% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.945...-0.938) - [5.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 10 minutes
5.Rollout16/3 4/3eq: -0.942 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
24.20% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
75.80% (G:1.86% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.945...-0.939) - [4.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes
6.Rollout113/10 8/7eq: -0.942 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
24.18% (G:0.88% B:0.03%)
75.82% (G:1.85% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.945...-0.939) - [2.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
7.Rollout26/2eq: -0.952 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
24.09% (G:0.84% B:0.03%)
75.91% (G:1.81% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.960...-0.945) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 45 seconds
8.Rollout28/4eq: -0.953 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
24.09% (G:0.83% B:0.02%)
75.91% (G:1.83% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.960...-0.946) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 22 seconds
9.Rollout213/10 4/3eq: -0.954 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
24.16% (G:0.85% B:0.02%)
75.84% (G:2.03% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.962...-0.946) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 47 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/7 6/3.

It looks normal to me to play 8/7 6/3 and try to make a 5 or 6 prime if I can hit something at some point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 120
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBCA--cC---aacbba---:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 134
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBC---dB---bBdab----:0:0:1:53:1:2:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout118/15 18/13eq: +0.471
Player:
Opponent:
63.17% (G:6.35% B:0.25%)
36.83% (G:6.11% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.463...+0.480) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: +0.376 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
60.42% (G:7.63% B:0.22%)
39.58% (G:6.26% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.367...+0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 18/15 18/13
[ 9] 8/3 6/3



Neil Kazaross: 62 13/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBC---cC-A-b-dbb----:0:0:1:51:1:2:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBB---dC---cBe-a----:0:0:1:32:1:2:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout118/13eq: +0.419
Player:
Opponent:
61.50% (G:6.00% B:0.22%)
38.50% (G:5.72% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.416...+0.423) - [91.7%]
Duration: 12 hours 32 minutes
2.xgRollout113/11 6/3eq: +0.416 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
61.43% (G:7.04% B:0.23%)
38.57% (G:5.36% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.412...+0.419) - [8.2%]
Duration: 14 hours 15 minutes
3.playedRollout113/8eq: +0.413 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
61.41% (G:6.49% B:0.19%)
38.59% (G:5.08% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.409...+0.416) - [0.1%]
Duration: 12 hours 46 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/8
[ 9] 18/13
[ 6] 13/11 6/3



Neil Kazaross: 41 8/4 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 134
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBC---dB---bBdab----:0:0:1:53:1:2:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aB-CC--A--eC---cAe--A-A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.89% (G:32.14% B:1.11%) 69.06% (G:36.68% B:1.17%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.11% (G:6.16% B:0.31%) 30.94% (G:6.93% B:0.42%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.648 +1.440
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.928 (-0.072)±0.009 (+0.920..+0.937)
     Double/Take:+1.240 (+0.240)±0.015 (+1.225..+1.255)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] Double
[ 3] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

Thinking about whether to double, I like to use the Value Equation for money, then adjust for the score.

VE = Priming Equity + Blitzing Equity + Racing Equity + Contact Equity

This can be found in Marc Olsen’s book ‘Backgammon Pure Strategy’. I give a number for each equity comparing my position to my opponent’s position. It could be a negative number if my opponent has a better advantage in that area.

So I would say:

VE = P + B + R + C = 2 + 4 + 2 + 2 = 10

This makes me realize that we lead in all areas for money. So trailing in the match by 2 points, my only question is ‘are we too good to double?’. If we are not sure that we are Too Good to Double, then should just double and make the decision our opponent’s.


Neil Kazaross passes.

Let’s compare this to the typical situation where I split an opening 54 or 52 and then get clobbered by 33 and dance. This is about a 0.84 take for me for money. However, the match position is significantly worse for me because they have a 9th checker in the zone that is a diversified builder which raises my chances to lose a gammon and also their chances to make their 4 point.

Additional factors against me in comparison are that I haven’t played 13/8 and that my back checker is more exposed on the 2 point. They do have three checkers back, but they are split and have my bar pt slotted. I doubt this is a take in a money game, so I certainly must pass with a 2-0 lead since my vig to recube to 4 will be reduced somewhat, as I’d hate an 8 cube coming back at me.


USBGF Members win one point, and now Neil Kazaross leads 9-away/10-away.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 43 24/21 13/9
USBGF Members: 66 24/18(2) 13/7(2)
Neil Kazaross: 53 24/21 9/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 139
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBDBB---dC---cBe-a----:0:0:1:32:1:2:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB-aC-CA--eC---cAe----AA:0:0:1:33:0:2:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 8/5*(3) eq: +0.681
Player:
Opponent:
62.49% (G:25.71% B:1.22%)
37.51% (G:8.70% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.670...+0.693) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/10 8/5*(2) eq: +0.643 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
62.07% (G:26.43% B:1.33%)
37.93% (G:9.64% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.631...+0.656) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 9/6 8/5*(2) eq: +0.640 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
61.41% (G:25.47% B:0.99%)
38.59% (G:9.15% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.627...+0.652) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/22 18/15 8/5*(2) eq: +0.609 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
61.13% (G:24.75% B:1.04%)
38.87% (G:9.33% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.598...+0.620) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/22 24/21 8/5*(2) eq: +0.583 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
60.74% (G:23.92% B:0.97%)
39.26% (G:9.83% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.572...+0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] b/22 8/5*(3)
[ 4] b/22 13/10 8/5*(2)
[ 2] b/22 24/21 8/5*(2)
[ 1] b/22 8/5*(2) 5/2*
[ 1] b/22 24/21 8/5*/2*
[ 1] b/22 9/6 8/5*(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/22 8/5*(3)

The first three 3’s are easy Bar/22 8/5*(2).

My gut reaction was 18/15 as we do not want to give Neil good 6’s from the bar. Unfortunately this still leaves Neil good 6’s from the bar as his checker on his 23 point is 6 away from our blot on our 8 point.

The go for gold play of 13/10 leaves 6 blots around the board. This just seemed too many for me and I settled on moving the third 3 by playing 8/5. This reduces the blot count to 4 blots and keeps three builders for the 4 point and two builders for the 2 and 1 points.

Neil can hit us with a 6 from the bar 13/7* but as we have 2 diversified checkers in his home board and a stronger home board, he would be risking a lot by doing so.

If Neil fans we should double and I think he should pass. For us to not double, Neil would have to enter by anchoring and not leave another blot say with a 52, otherwise the cube is heading his way.



Neil Kazaross: 55 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 151
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-aB-CC--A--eC---cAe--A-A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 149
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB--D-CA--eC---cae----B-:0:0:1:64:0:2:0:11:10
to play 64

1.Rollout124/18* 13/9eq: +0.628
Player:
Opponent:
63.03% (G:20.43% B:0.93%)
36.97% (G:8.13% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.623...+0.633) - [85.8%]
Duration: 11 hours 40 minutes
2.xgRollout124/18* 18/14eq: +0.624 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
62.49% (G:21.41% B:0.90%)
37.51% (G:8.59% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.620...+0.629) - [14.2%]
Duration: 10 hours 55 minutes
3.playedRollout124/18* 6/2* eq: +0.619 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
61.24% (G:25.17% B:0.83%)
38.76% (G:9.32% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.615...+0.623) - [0.1%]
Duration: 9 hours 51 minutes
4.Rollout28/2* 6/2eq: +0.589 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
59.88% (G:29.79% B:0.65%)
40.12% (G:8.40% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.579...+0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/18* 6/2*
[ 9] 24/18* 13/9
[ 5] 8/2* 6/2
[ 1] 24/22 24/18*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18* 13/9

We have to hit 24/18* to send one of Neil’s checkers back, to remove one of his builders and to take a lead in the race.

The problem I have with the double hit 6/2* is that it duplicates 6’s to anchor and to cover.

We do not want to give Neil good 6’s from the bar so 18/14 looks tempting but I like making the 9 point with 13/9. The 9 point is an asset and we should usually play offensively before we play defensively.

If Neil hits us with a 6 from the bar we will have lots of returns shots so that pushes me towards 13/9.



Neil Kazaross: 52 b/23* b/20


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB-aC-CA--eC---cAe----AA:0:0:1:33:0:2:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-CD-B---cDa--bbc-b-AA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout124/20 13/11eq: -0.486
Player:
Opponent:
39.41% (G:10.80% B:0.48%)
60.59% (G:22.25% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.490...-0.482) - [63.7%]
Duration: 9 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.487 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
38.83% (G:11.02% B:0.46%)
61.17% (G:20.35% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.491...-0.482) - [36.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 6/2eq: -0.493 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
39.26% (G:10.35% B:0.42%)
60.74% (G:22.19% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.498...-0.489) - [0.3%]
Duration: 10 hours 35 minutes
4.Rollout224/20 6/4eq: -0.515 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
39.14% (G:10.43% B:0.47%)
60.86% (G:25.13% B:1.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.527...-0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
5.Rollout224/22 13/9eq: -0.519 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
38.19% (G:10.82% B:0.51%)
61.81% (G:21.67% B:1.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.530...-0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
6.Rollout213/7eq: -0.535 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
37.55% (G:10.68% B:0.44%)
62.45% (G:20.86% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.545...-0.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
7.Rollout213/11 6/2eq: -0.565 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
37.20% (G:10.10% B:0.43%)
62.80% (G:22.49% B:1.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.575...-0.555) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 24/20 13/11
[17] 8/4 6/4
[ 3] 13/7
[ 3] 24/22 6/2
[ 2] 13/11 6/2
[ 1] 24/22 13/9
[ 1] 13/9 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20 13/11

This is a tough play. I would let my teammates in a chouette convince me of 8/4 6/4, 24/20 13/11 or 24/22 6/2. All have pros and all have cons. Being the Captain in a chouette where the team was split on the play would be hard.

I would find it hard to play 24/22 6/2 – we do not want to put a checker behind Neil’s anchor. I do not like 24/22 13/9 as it gives Neil a good 6 to hit and escape.

8/4 6/4 makes a good point but also gives up a good point – this is really upgrading a point but leaving Neil shots. It could be right.

Over the board I would use the saying – ‘when your opponent has an advanced anchor, you need one too’ going through my head and play 24/20 13/11. The rolls that make Neil’s 5 point do involve some that give up his 7 or 8 points so we will have return shots.

I have a low confidence in this position but looking at it with more time than I would have over the board, I am still unsure. Over the board, I would use the saying above and play 24/20 13/11.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-CD-B--AcCa--bbcAb-A--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 60.71% (G:22.21% B:1.15%) 60.75% (G:23.00% B:1.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.29% (G:10.93% B:0.48%) 39.25% (G:11.24% B:0.50%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.336 +0.695
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.483±0.010 (+0.472..+0.493)
     Double/Take:+0.384 (-0.099)±0.022 (+0.363..+0.406)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.517)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I may be close to a cube here, but I don’t think I can win this enough to justify cubing. I have a nice pointing threat but then I often leave a blot which they may hit as I have to break a stripped point or they may anchor on my 2 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-CD-B--AcCa--bbcAb-A--:0:0:-1:66:0:0:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout122/16 11/5* 8/2*(2) eq: +0.748
Player:
Opponent:
67.15% (G:37.97% B:1.83%)
32.85% (G:9.49% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.739...+0.757) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 11/5* 8/2*(2) eq: +0.713 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
64.94% (G:38.82% B:1.74%)
35.06% (G:8.82% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.703...+0.722) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.Rollout122/10(2)eq: +0.662 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
68.72% (G:11.15% B:0.43%)
31.28% (G:5.77% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.654...+0.670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
4.Rollout122/16(2) 8/2*(2) eq: +0.645 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
65.11% (G:22.71% B:0.93%)
34.89% (G:7.47% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.636...+0.654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/16 11/5* 8/2*(2).

A great roll for me. If this were DMP, I’d think about coming around with 22/10(2) but that clearly won’t win enough gammons so I double hit and now evaluate the final 6. Players have misplayed the final 6 here in similar positions for decades after having been taught to just concentrate on the blitzing side of the board. But, the problem is that the blitz doesn’t always work and sometimes you get hit from the bar and the game continues and you can get over-extended or have several checkers back.

13/7 does place a new checker in the attacking zone, but it doesn’t give me a new diversified builder. As I am ahead by 29 pips after the play I must take a long look at 22/16. This risks a crushing 55 and a nasty 33, but there are many plusses to this play. If hit I may be able to enter and make the 16 point or enter and hit on the 14 point. The fact that it gives me a 65 to close my 5 point makes my play-ons stronger when they roll poorly.



USBGF Members: 41 b/24


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CD-Ba-AcC----bcab-bAA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.56% (G:44.38% B:1.94%) 75.19% (G:46.63% B:1.95%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.44% (G:5.36% B:0.29%) 24.81% (G:5.99% B:0.33%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.926 +1.907
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.082±0.007 (+1.075..+1.089)
     Double/Take:+1.701 (+0.619)±0.012 (+1.689..+1.713)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.082)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 11.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I believe that I have enough good rolls to make my gammon chances adequate for me to be too good here. My position is good enough for me to be able to survive most poor sequences.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CD-Ba-AcC----bcab-bAA:0:0:-1:64:0:0:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout17/1* 5/1eq: +1.155
Player:
Opponent:
77.25% (G:57.54% B:1.77%)
22.75% (G:5.76% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.147...+1.163) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout122/16 5/1* eq: +0.906 (-0.249)
Player:
Opponent:
71.37% (G:39.04% B:1.28%)
28.63% (G:7.09% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.896...+0.916) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
3.Rollout116/10 5/1* eq: +0.769 (-0.386)
Player:
Opponent:
67.04% (G:41.42% B:1.34%)
32.96% (G:8.98% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.761...+0.777) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/1* 5/1.

Normally it is good to roll large numbers when blitzing since more checkers can end up in range of my open points. This fine roll makes the ace point and should leave me again too good unless they enter both.



USBGF Members: 11 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CD-Ba-AcC----ac-b-bbB:0:0:-1:31:0:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout113/9eq: +1.295
Player:
Opponent:
80.97% (G:65.81% B:2.21%)
19.03% (G:5.11% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.293...+1.298) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout122/21 13/10eq: +1.288 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
80.57% (G:63.09% B:2.07%)
19.43% (G:4.28% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.285...+1.290) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout222/18eq: +1.266 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
80.15% (G:58.94% B:1.90%)
19.85% (G:4.16% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.259...+1.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 51 seconds
4.Rollout216/15 13/10eq: +1.228 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
79.21% (G:63.76% B:2.05%)
20.79% (G:5.66% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.221...+1.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9.

I’ll play 13/9, which creates a new builder for both my open points — this looks clear. I won’t worry about dodging their entering jokers until there’s nothing else to worry about.



USBGF Members: 42 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CD-Ba-AbC--a-ac-b-bbB:0:0:-1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout116/14* 14/8eq: +1.554
Player:
Opponent:
87.52% (G:75.49% B:2.89%)
12.48% (G:2.16% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.548...+1.560) - [99.7%]
Duration: 47 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout122/14* eq: +1.542 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
87.44% (G:72.62% B:2.80%)
12.56% (G:2.05% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.535...+1.548) - [0.3%]
Duration: 49 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/14*/8.

Here I hit and bring a new builder. As I can handle my blocked 55 and 33 just fine, I see no real need to play 22/16 at the expense of a new diversified builder.



USBGF Members: 11 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-CD-B---bC--aaac-b-bbC:0:0:-1:51:0:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout122/16eq: +1.632
Player:
Opponent:
89.98% (G:77.08% B:2.85%)
10.02% (G:1.25% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.626...+1.638) - [100.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 53 seconds
2.xgRollout122/21 13/8eq: +1.617 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
89.46% (G:77.80% B:2.86%)
10.54% (G:1.34% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.611...+1.623) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout113/7eq: +1.582 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
88.56% (G:77.13% B:2.77%)
11.44% (G:1.73% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.576...+1.587) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/16.

Since I cannot create any more builders or close a point, it is time to hop out.



USBGF Members: 52 b/20


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-Ba--bC--aaacAb-bbB:0:0:-1:61:0:0:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout116/10 6/5* eq: +1.536
Player:
Opponent:
86.97% (G:74.78% B:2.91%)
13.03% (G:2.82% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.531...+1.541) - [100.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 6/5* eq: +1.519 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
86.42% (G:73.55% B:2.79%)
13.58% (G:2.75% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.514...+1.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 59 seconds
3.Rollout116/9eq: +1.447 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
87.23% (G:63.01% B:1.93%)
12.77% (G:1.54% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.440...+1.453) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/10 6/5*.

I should hit loose 6/5* to try to win more gammons and then it is a close call for my 6 but since I will be quite unhappy if they roll their joker 55 after either play, I’ll just bring a new builder with 16/10.



USBGF Members: 41 no play
Neil Kazaross: 65 13/7 10/5
USBGF Members: 62 no play
Neil Kazaross: 54 8/3 7/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 71
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-B---aC--a-abbbbbbC:0:0:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.Rollout113/10eq: +1.958
Player:
Opponent:
97.16% (G:94.45% B:4.44%)
2.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.957...+1.960) - [45.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
2.playedRollout113/11 7/6eq: +1.958 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
97.08% (G:94.39% B:4.54%)
2.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.956...+1.959) - [26.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
3.xgRollout19/8 7/5eq: +1.958 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
97.07% (G:94.42% B:4.56%)
2.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.956...+1.959) - [15.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 9/8eq: +1.958 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
97.12% (G:94.50% B:4.42%)
2.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.956...+1.959) - [13.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
5.Rollout17/4eq: +1.956 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
97.14% (G:94.39% B:4.37%)
2.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.955...+1.958) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
6.Rollout19/6eq: +1.955 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
97.03% (G:94.39% B:4.40%)
2.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.953...+1.956) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 7/6.

I have many choices here, and don’t think playing safe to avoid 66 is best as that can end up awkward later. If I roll boxes after 13/11 7/6 and get hit, I can still play on unless they hit with 66. So that is my flexible choice.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 68
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-B----Ca-a--cbbbbbC:0:0:-1:22:0:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout111/5 6/4eq: +1.972
Player:
Opponent:
97.48% (G:94.84% B:4.56%)
2.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.969...+1.975) - [99.2%]
Duration: 14 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 6/4eq: +1.967 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
97.42% (G:94.78% B:4.25%)
2.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.964...+1.970) - [0.4%]
Duration: 12 minutes 28 seconds
3.xgRollout111/3eq: +1.967 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
97.28% (G:94.66% B:4.54%)
2.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.964...+1.970) - [0.3%]
Duration: 13 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout111/7 6/2eq: +1.952 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
96.89% (G:94.32% B:4.25%)
3.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.949...+1.955) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 19 seconds
5.Rollout111/7 9/7 6/4eq: +1.950 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
96.91% (G:94.18% B:4.21%)
3.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.947...+1.953) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 05 seconds
6.Rollout111/5 9/7eq: +1.945 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
96.39% (G:93.39% B:5.28%)
3.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.942...+1.949) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/5 6/4.

9/5 and 13/11 are automatic and now I slightly prefer 6/4 to 9/7 as I am sure it is more safe. I really shouldn’t be pushing too hard for a backgammon until I’ve taken a few checkers off and they remain on the bar will all three checkers.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 60
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-B----C--a--bccbbbC:0:0:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout19/Offeq: +1.961
Player:
Opponent:
96.62% (G:93.55% B:6.11%)
3.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.957...+1.964) - [88.1%]
Duration: 15 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout19/4 5/1eq: +1.958 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
97.31% (G:94.81% B:3.89%)
2.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.955...+1.961) - [11.9%]
Duration: 14 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout16/2 6/1eq: +1.947 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
97.69% (G:94.74% B:2.56%)
2.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.944...+1.950) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 24 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/0.

With cube access, I cannot resist the greedy 9/0. This is going against previous advice to not yet play for the backgammon, but if I don’t blot with 66 or 55 this will result in a safe position and if I do blot and get hit I will have several checkers off.



Neil Kazaross: 52 5/0 4/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 44
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-B----C-----bbbbcbC:0:0:-1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout15/3 5/Offeq: +1.956
Player:
Opponent:
96.16% (G:93.05% B:7.09%)
3.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.952...+1.960) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 47 seconds
2.playedRollout16/4 6/1eq: +1.899 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
94.98% (G:91.73% B:5.40%)
5.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.895...+1.903) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4 6/1.

I am not sure here. Clearing the 6 point leaves 3 blotting rolls but a position that can blot later if I roll large numbers for a couple of turns. Clearing the 5 point leaves four blotting numbers but takes a checker off and maybe safer long turn. I’ll clear the 6 point as it seems that I am more likely to be able to keep more points closed for longer with a spare on the 4 point, and if I get hit after a blotting big double I have more checkers off.



USBGF Members: 31 no play
Neil Kazaross: 22 5/3(2) 4/0
USBGF Members: 44 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 29
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----CD-B----C-------bdccC:0:0:-1:33:0:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout13/Off(4)eq: +2.130
Player:
Opponent:
96.56% (G:89.90% B:22.90%)
3.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+2.127...+2.133) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout14/1(2) 3/Off(2)eq: +2.019 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
97.14% (G:93.08% B:9.88%)
2.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+2.016...+2.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 3/0(4).

It seems clear to get greedy and push for the backgammon, again noting my cube access if I get hit.



USBGF Members: 22 no play
Neil Kazaross: 42 4/2 4/0
USBGF Members: 44 b/21(2) b/17
Neil Kazaross: 51 2/0 1/0


Neil Kazaross wins two points and leads 9-away/11-away.



Neil Kazaross: 65 24/13
USBGF Members: 53 8/3 6/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-B--D-B---fE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:62:0:2:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout124/16eq: -0.038
Player:
Opponent:
51.43% (G:8.69% B:0.36%)
48.57% (G:13.80% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.049...-0.028) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 13/11eq: -0.099 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
50.06% (G:10.16% B:0.48%)
49.94% (G:15.93% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.110...-0.088) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/16.

It’s clear to run the last checker.



USBGF Members: 54 13/9* 13/8
Neil Kazaross: 62 b/23 13/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 2
pip: 149
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB--D-CA--eC---cae----B-:0:0:1:64:0:2:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-BD-B---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout124/18 13/11eq: +0.253
Player:
Opponent:
55.96% (G:15.02% B:0.67%)
44.04% (G:11.48% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.242...+0.264) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 24/18eq: +0.195 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
55.08% (G:13.43% B:0.62%)
44.92% (G:12.00% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.184...+0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout113/5eq: +0.182 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
53.95% (G:16.22% B:0.67%)
46.05% (G:12.22% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.172...+0.191) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
4.Rollout124/16eq: +0.170 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
54.31% (G:13.90% B:0.64%)
45.69% (G:12.43% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.159...+0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/18 13/11
[20] 13/5
[ 2] 24/16


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

13/5 is too passive, it gives Neil the opportunity to do too many good things. It does unstack the 13 point, but so does 24/18 13/11.

24/18 13/11 is the correct play. It duplicates 3’s for Neil to make his 10 point and to hit us on our 18 point/his 7 point. In the early game, whenever our opponent has a checker on his 10 point and not much other development, we should always consider 24/18.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-BD-B--AdD-a-cAe----A-:0:0:-1:31:0:0:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout110/7* 8/7eq: -0.166
Player:
Opponent:
46.25% (G:11.64% B:0.51%)
53.75% (G:15.03% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.177...-0.155) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
2.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.353 (-0.188)
Player:
Opponent:
41.55% (G:10.69% B:0.47%)
58.45% (G:16.65% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.364...-0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 22/21eq: -0.362 (-0.196)
Player:
Opponent:
40.28% (G:7.45% B:0.25%)
59.72% (G:10.10% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.372...-0.351) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/7* 8/7.

Three choices here. I can make my 5 point. I can make their 4 point. But these pale in comparison to pointing on my bar point, putting them on the bar, denying them that nice anchor and hoping to retain the initiative with a nice roll next.



USBGF Members: 62 b/23 11/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-CD-B---dD---bbe---AA-:0:0:-1:22:0:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout124/22 13/11 6/4(2)eq: +0.317
Player:
Opponent:
56.94% (G:17.86% B:0.71%)
43.06% (G:10.82% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.306...+0.328) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
2.Rollout17/5(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.240 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
55.44% (G:19.49% B:0.92%)
44.56% (G:14.52% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.229...+0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.187 (-0.130)
Player:
Opponent:
55.04% (G:17.40% B:1.04%)
44.96% (G:15.72% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.176...+0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 13/11 6/4(2).

A nice roll giving me the advantage. 6/4(2) is a must and then it looks prudent to anchor and play 13/11 rather than playing 7/5(2). 7/5(2) trades a good point for a better one, but I think I need to anchor before their builders attack me. 13/11 creates a builder that can only be hit by four fly shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b-CD-B---cDa--bbc-b-AA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-15

[Previous] [Next]

New 11 point match!


USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---BD-B---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:32:0:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/22 13/10eq: -0.379
Player:
Opponent:
41.65% (G:10.74% B:0.50%)
58.35% (G:18.54% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.384...-0.374) - [99.6%]
Duration: 15 hours 26 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/11eq: -0.388 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
41.73% (G:10.52% B:0.50%)
58.27% (G:18.69% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.393...-0.384) - [0.4%]
Duration: 14 hours 47 minutes
3.Rollout224/22 24/21eq: -0.402 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
41.61% (G:10.13% B:0.54%)
58.39% (G:19.57% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.413...-0.390) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
4.Rollout213/11 13/10eq: -0.412 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
40.74% (G:11.62% B:0.56%)
59.26% (G:19.33% B:1.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.424...-0.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81743632
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 13/10.

If you don’t know how to respond to almost any opening play with 32 playing the major split is rarely far wrong. But here I know that the minor split is slightly better, perhaps because it avoids attack on their 4 point, which they really want to add to complement their 5 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-BD-B---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-02-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 80
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 47
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BaEBBB-----------acbbcba-:0:0:1:52:10:0:1:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/4 6/1eq: +0.863
Player:
Opponent:
93.13% (G:5.73% B:0.17%)
6.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.862...+0.863) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44.9 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 5/Offeq: +0.783 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
89.15% (G:5.74% B:0.22%)
10.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.782...+0.784) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.6 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79126210
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 6/4 6/1
[ 3] 5/3 5/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/4 6/1

Even at a normal match score the best play is 6/4 6/1. The alternative wins so few gammons that the extra risk is just not worth it. Here when Gammons are worth nothing to us, we have even more incentive to “clear from the rear and not ask questions.” 6/4 6/1 is the two second play, and looking for alternatives, there is nothing better.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 80
                         
11 point match
Crawford
                          pip: 40
score: 10

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaECB------------acbbcba-:0:0:-1:51:10:0:1:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/1 3/2eq: -0.854
Player:
Opponent:
7.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.70% (G:8.38% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.854...-0.854) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout17/1eq: -0.860 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
7.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.00% (G:5.36% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.860...-0.860) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds
3.Rollout17/2 6/5eq: -0.868 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
6.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.38% (G:5.36% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.868...-0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds
4.Rollout16/1 2/1eq: -0.868 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
6.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.38% (G:8.99% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.868...-0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79126210
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/1 3/2.

After some consideration it has to be worth spending a pip inside my board so as not to be forced to run away with the next 6 here when I cannot lose a gammon.



USBGF Members: 64 5/1 5/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 74
                         
11 point match
Crawford