USBGF OLM 2017-03-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 109
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACcCBB-B--B----bb-bbbb-:0:0:1:33:3:5:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 13/7(2)
[ 4] 13/10 13/7 6/3
[ 1] 10/7 10/4 6/3
[ 1] 10/7(2) 6/3 4/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/10 13/7 6/3

I don’t see much difference between 13/10 13/7 6/3 and the simple 13/7(2), but I voted for the former to prevent his getting any ideas about stepping out with a 41. We want to close in on a recube, so we definitely don’t want him running that third checker — we want him to start crashing!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACcCDB-B-------bb-bbbb-:0:0:-1:41:3:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 20/16 7/6.

7/6 brings a checker to a good spot in my board. 20/16 attempts to escape my spare at the cost of a few shots that my opponents may not even want to hit with some rolls that can.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 101
             
11 point match
              pip: 97
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACbCDBaB-------ac-bbbb-:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 3/29 130p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-03-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 130
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABcCBB-B-aB-a--ac-bbb-A:0:0:1:21:3:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.316
Player:
Opponent:
43.08% (G:7.22% B:0.47%)
56.92% (G:18.12% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.327...-0.306) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 3/1eq: -0.350 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
42.56% (G:6.80% B:0.29%)
57.44% (G:19.32% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.361...-0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47733525
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/24 6/4
[ 7] b/24 3/1


Mary Hickey recommends: TBA

Check back for Mary’s commentary.



Neil Kazaross: 62 13/7 10/8
USBGF Members: 43 24/17*
Neil Kazaross: 54 b/16
USBGF Members: 65 17/6
Neil Kazaross: 55 16/1 6/1


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 106
             
11 point match
              pip: 109
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACcCBB-B--B----bb-bbbb-:0:0:1:33:3:5:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Tue 3/28 800p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-03-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 145
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BcBBC-B-bCa--b-c-bbA--:0:0:1:32:3:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout123/18eq: -0.011
Player:
Opponent:
51.37% (G:5.26% B:0.26%)
48.63% (G:13.07% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.021...-0.001) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
2.playedRollout113/10 8/6eq: -0.053 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
50.18% (G:5.94% B:0.23%)
49.82% (G:13.04% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.063...-0.042) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
3.Rollout123/20 8/6eq: -0.063 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
50.02% (G:6.58% B:0.30%)
49.98% (G:15.22% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.073...-0.052) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
4.Rollout113/8eq: -0.076 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
49.76% (G:5.92% B:0.20%)
50.24% (G:13.65% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.086...-0.066) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 13/10 8/6
[12] 23/18


Mary Hickey recommends: TBA

Check back for Mary’s commentary.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 145
             
11 point match
              pip: 135
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BcCBB-C-bBa--b-c-bbA--:0:0:-1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout111/3eq: -0.113
Player:
Opponent:
45.84% (G:10.48% B:0.27%)
54.16% (G:5.89% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.122...-0.104) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.144 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
45.07% (G:9.49% B:0.22%)
54.93% (G:5.45% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.153...-0.136) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/3.

I have a difficult choice to make and there’s only two plays to consider. Breaking the mid point for builders is a natural play that can lead to a pretty position if I can make my 5 point next turn or failing that my bar point. However this play has some defects as I will be faced with a nasty cube after being hit with 6 rolls. My mid point still has value in a holding game, and I certainly want it next turn if the USBGF Members roll 65 or even 41 since I then get an ace shot.

So this leaves 11/3. I don’t like dilly builders, but this is some more firepower to aim at the checker on my 2 point that will often remain there next turn. When one doesn’t really want to be hit, one should consider leaving no blots. By leaving no blots this turn I don’t have to worry about them next turn should I roll a number that can run my spare from my 20 point.

Note that had my opponents stepped up to my 5 point, I’d hit loose with the 3, as I have a 3 point board and that play could soon be decisive if it works. But attacking on a point so my opponents don’t just run away is often better than just having some builders that might make that point next time.

So I will play cautiously here with 11/3.



USBGF Members: 61 10/3
Neil Kazaross: 61 8/2* 3/2
USBGF Members: 61 b/18


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 130
             
11 point match
              pip: 123
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABcCBB-B-bB---aAc-bbb--:0:0:-1:31:3:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedXG Roller++13/10 8/7*eq: +0.264
Player:
Opponent:
54.60% (G:21.21% B:0.38%)
45.40% (G:7.32% B:0.30%)
2.XG Roller++8/7* 7/4eq: +0.155 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
51.53% (G:17.03% B:0.18%)
48.47% (G:6.11% B:0.25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 8/7*.

Now that my opponents have a blot in their board and I have a 4 point board, I think I need to make a decisive move to try to put the game away. So after hitting 8/7*, that means 13/10 which leaves me much better placed to make my key 5 and/or 7 points than the wimpy 7/4. If I get hit I will have usually have plenty of return shots. If the USBGF Members roll 55 from the bar, no play I can make is good.

13/10 8/7* looks to be clear, since if I wimp 7/4 I am unlikely to make any key new points soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 126
             
11 point match
              pip: 130
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ABcCBB-B-aB-a--ac-bbb-A:0:0:1:21:3:5:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AAbCBC-B-bB--bbac-b--aA:0:0:1:61:3:5:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/24* 24/18*eq: +0.326
Player:
Opponent:
56.80% (G:14.39% B:0.57%)
43.20% (G:12.63% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.315...+0.338) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24* 10/4eq: -0.046 (-0.372)
Player:
Opponent:
47.73% (G:13.00% B:0.54%)
52.27% (G:13.87% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.057...-0.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/24*/18*
[ 8] b/24* 10/4


Mary Hickey recommends:

The double hit is clear, for many reasons! 1. The “safe” alternative isn’t safe at all, since it still leaves direct 3s in our board and also opens up some indirects at our loose checker on the 10 point. It also leaves our back checker in danger of being blocked effectively enough that he won’t need a second checker all that badly. So might as well make the bold play, if the safe play costs us a good blocking point and isn’t even safe! 2. The double hit gets our back checker a giant step farther down the road for home. That advantage might be negated if he hits us, but that hasn’t happened yet. When an opponent is a favorite to hit, doesn’t mean they will. 3) OK, what if one of our inner board blots does get hit this turn? It’s still very much in the game, and so are we. Meanwhile, the checker that hit it will be semi-trapped behind our block, which we kept strong by not breaking our 10 point.



Neil Kazaross: 63 b/22*
USBGF Members: 32 b/22 6/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 173
             
11 point match
              pip: 144
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--aBbBBC-B-bB--bbAc-bA---:0:0:-1:22:3:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 22/20 9/7*(2)eq: -0.158
Player:
Opponent:
46.61% (G:12.35% B:0.48%)
53.39% (G:11.65% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.170...-0.146) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 9/7* 7/3*eq: -0.300 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
44.39% (G:13.56% B:0.61%)
55.61% (G:15.77% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.313...-0.286) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 22/20 9/7*(2).

I am certainly hitting 9/7*. Now I look at that position and find two more 2’s to play. One choice is 7/3* trying to blitz. But with 4 checkers stuck back and only 9 in the zone, this will often fail. Better is 9/7, making my bar point and my own block while playing 22/20 giving me 6’s and 4’s to free that critical spare checker.



USBGF Members: 44 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 165
             
11 point match
              pip: 151
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BcBBC-B-bB---bbc-bA--A:0:0:-1:22:3:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.Rollout113/11(2) 7/5(2)eq: +0.122
Player:
Opponent:
52.03% (G:17.04% B:0.68%)
47.97% (G:9.07% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.109...+0.134) - [97.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
2.playedRollout17/3*(2)eq: +0.104 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
51.09% (G:19.71% B:0.74%)
48.91% (G:9.70% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.092...+0.117) - [2.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
3.Rollout113/9(2)eq: +0.073 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
51.81% (G:15.44% B:0.70%)
48.19% (G:10.44% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.060...+0.086) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/3*(2).

This is a good outcome for me. This time I will use the method of playing doubles two checkers at a time. So lets start with 13/11(2) and compare 11/9(2) vs 7/5(2). I think making my 5 point is superior. If I make the 9 point, I still have my 5 point open and have given up my mid point with 4 checkers blocked back. Making my 9 point will often lead to me making more points but it seems better just to make the 5 point to me.

Now since I am making the 5 point lets compare the attacking 5/3*(2) to 13/11(2). Note that last turn I disdained the blitzing play in favor of a positional play but here I can attack and have a 3 point board with no blots. 25% of the time both checkers will remain on the bar and another 50% of the time one will still be on the bar after my opponents roll.

The positional approach keeping my 5 point looks good as well, but the slight defect of not having my mid pt with 4 checkers back concerns me a bit.

I can’t resist the attacking with 7/3*(2), as gammons still pay double.



USBGF Members: 52 b/23 b/20


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 157
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BcBBC-B-bB---b-cAbbA--:0:0:-1:43:3:5:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout120/13eq: -0.159
Player:
Opponent:
44.98% (G:12.13% B:0.42%)
55.02% (G:8.26% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.169...-0.149) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
2.Rollout123/16eq: -0.185 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
44.65% (G:10.66% B:0.39%)
55.35% (G:8.53% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.195...-0.174) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
3.Rollout18/5* 6/2*eq: -0.316 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:
43.84% (G:15.84% B:0.49%)
56.16% (G:17.65% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.331...-0.301) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/13.

My 4 must be played 20/16 to start freeing blocked checkers before I end up being forced to break points that I want to currently keep. Then I think 16/13 is best as I really don’t need to be hit and I want another checker closer to my board in case I can attack. This spare on my mid point may also allow me to safely hit in the outfield next roll.



USBGF Members: 61 20/13


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BbBBC-B-cC---b-c-bbA--:0:0:-1:32:3:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout123/20 13/11eq: -0.112
Player:
Opponent:
45.92% (G:10.86% B:0.24%)
54.08% (G:5.93% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.122...-0.102) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
2.Rollout123/20 6/4eq: -0.192 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
43.62% (G:9.08% B:0.17%)
56.38% (G:5.21% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.202...-0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
3.Rollout113/8eq: -0.286 (-0.174)
Player:
Opponent:
41.83% (G:10.27% B:0.25%)
58.17% (G:7.36% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.296...-0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75810667
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/20 13/11.

A decent roll as I can prepare to spring my last spare with 23/20 and create a builder and some outfield coverage with 13/11 at the cost of 4 painful shots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 145
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BcBBC-B-bCa--b-c-bbA--:0:0:1:32:3:5:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bDBD-B-bB--bc-d-b--A-:0:0:1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout18/3 6/4eq: -0.277
Player:
Opponent:
43.85% (G:5.93% B:0.33%)
56.15% (G:13.73% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.288...-0.267) - [92.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 8/3eq: -0.289 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
44.14% (G:6.28% B:0.35%)
55.86% (G:17.14% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.300...-0.277) - [7.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
3.Rollout18/6 8/3eq: -0.333 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
42.23% (G:6.08% B:0.24%)
57.77% (G:15.12% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.343...-0.323) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
4.Rollout18/1eq: -0.348 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
41.74% (G:5.90% B:0.22%)
58.26% (G:15.39% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.358...-0.338) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 8/3 6/4
[ 3] 24/22 8/3
[ 1] 8/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/3 6/4

Stepping up with 24/22 doesn’t do much for us, since it doesn’t gain any more direct escaping numbers than we have now. It’s not all bad, because it hinders his rolling that 9 point into the bar or 5 point, but it’s also risky because his anchor enables him to attack without excessive worry of bad things like doubled gammons. Let’s look for something better!

Slotting two points behind his anchor may look kind of loose, but since the race is about even, and we have a good blocking structure, it’s unlikely he will use the opportunity our chaotic board provides to do anything much. We rate to cover at least one of them next time, if we can’t do something even better such as run our back man out.

Points behind his anchor will be good for the future of the game, especially when he has to leave his anchor later. Don’t believe a saying from the old days, that you don’t want to make points behind an anchor. What are those spare checkers on the 8 and 6 point supposed to do instead? Of course you want to use them to make points behind the anchor, and this roll lets us start the best two of them available. Start ’em now, finish ’em next time, and let him worry about them when we hit something, or he has to run a man from the anchor!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AAbCBC-B-bB--bc-d-b--A-:0:0:-1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout18/7 6/1*eq: +0.040
Player:
Opponent:
50.27% (G:15.37% B:0.48%)
49.73% (G:9.23% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.028...+0.052) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
2.Rollout19/4 8/7eq: -0.078 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
47.05% (G:12.77% B:0.42%)
52.95% (G:8.25% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.088...-0.068) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
3.Rollout19/4 6/5eq: -0.080 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
47.23% (G:12.06% B:0.42%)
52.77% (G:8.80% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.089...-0.070) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
4.Rollout113/7eq: -0.082 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:
47.30% (G:12.29% B:0.52%)
52.70% (G:8.42% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.092...-0.072) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
5.Rollout19/8 9/4eq: -0.105 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:
46.22% (G:8.51% B:0.19%)
53.78% (G:5.50% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.115...-0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/7 6/1*.

It is so important to try to make the best of a poor roll and too look at all 30 checkers. Here I see two blots in my opponents’ board, and unless I play 8/7 6/1*, I have to break a good point. Although if they return hit with an ace they can cover one blot, I need to risk that since passive alternatives look much worse. Note that the builder I put on my bar point can be used to attack or block.

8/7 6/1* is very clear.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AAbCBC-B-bB--bbac-b--aA:0:0:1:16:3:5:0:11:10
to play 16

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-D---cF-aab-d-b----:0:0:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout18/2*eq: -0.065
Player:
Opponent:
48.80% (G:9.34% B:0.50%)
51.20% (G:16.92% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.076...-0.053) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
2.Rollout18/7 6/1*eq: -0.125 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
47.62% (G:9.17% B:0.49%)
52.38% (G:18.13% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.137...-0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.playedRollout113/8 6/5eq: -0.136 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
47.66% (G:8.64% B:0.43%)
52.34% (G:17.53% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.147...-0.125) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
4.Rollout113/7eq: -0.183 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:
45.80% (G:8.81% B:0.50%)
54.20% (G:17.04% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.194...-0.172) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 13/8 6/5
[ 8] 8/2*
[ 1] 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/2*

This 51 is a dumb number, with no constructive options and no safe play either. We pretty much have to hit him, 8/2*, for the main reason that it takes half his roll and so stops him from doing things we don’t like at all, especially making his 5 point. This way, he can only do that with small and midsize doubles, and we were in trouble on those rolls anyway. Even if he hits us, we might roll something better next time, who knows?

Speaking of doubles, there is one other reason to hit in the early game when in doubt: What Marty Storer calls the “Boxcars Bonus”. A 66 is only one roll in 36 for him, but there’s no chance at all for him to stay out with it if we don’t hit him.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 134
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--AD-E---cE-aab-d-b----:0:0:-1:53:3:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout123/20* 13/8eq: +0.388
Player:
Opponent:
58.04% (G:22.21% B:0.84%)
41.96% (G:8.67% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.376...+0.400) - [91.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
2.playedRollout123/20* 20/15eq: +0.376 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
58.55% (G:18.83% B:0.66%)
41.45% (G:8.66% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.364...+0.387) - [7.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout123/20* 9/4eq: +0.369 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
57.92% (G:21.43% B:0.69%)
42.08% (G:8.25% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.356...+0.381) - [1.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/20*/15.

After hitting 23/20*, I have two good choices for my 5. 13/8 is more aggressive as it looks to continue to go after the checker I just hit while maintaining a presence split in my opponents board in hopes of catching another checker or making their 5 point. 20/15 seems more natural as it comes forward and links to my outfield checkers. After 20/15, I don’t have to worry about loose hits on the 20 pt, but those only bother me if I roll a missing 6 from the bar.

13/8 strips my mid point, but that is only an issue if I get hit on my 9 point (4 rolls) and then when I enter I roll a number that breaks the no stripped mid point to return hit in my outfield. 13/8 also gives the USBGF Members some poor entering 4’s.

20/15 is clearly better if I get hit on the 9 pt and avoids a nasty 11 joker and also is better if they roll 65 hoping to escape.

However, I’d play to press my advantage with 13/8 if this were a gammon go type of score. However, it isn’t and therefore I will go with the play that looks most natural to me and note that I have a slight race lead now.

So 23/20*/15 is my choice after a lot of thought.



USBGF Members: 31 b/24 13/10*
Neil Kazaross: 66 no play
USBGF Members: 21 13/10
Neil Kazaross: 54 b/20 24/20
USBGF Members: 61 13/7 8/7


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 146
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bDBD-B-cB-aab-d-b--A-:0:0:-1:42:3:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout113/9 10/8eq: +0.137
Player:
Opponent:
52.51% (G:12.15% B:0.37%)
47.49% (G:4.97% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.128...+0.147) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: +0.087 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
51.22% (G:12.08% B:0.34%)
48.78% (G:5.49% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.076...+0.097) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 10/8.

This play is quite clear. 13/9 makes a useful point and then 10/8 lifts my blot to a point where I need builders since the 8 point will be part of any containment I can create between my 4 and 9 points. I will note that in spite of my advanced anchor in my opponents 1 point board that it is quite bad for me to be hit my side of the board here when the race is close and they have outfield points to shepherd their other checkers toward home.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 140
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bDBD-B-bB--bc-d-b--A-:0:0:1:52:3:5:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa-Aa-dbb--A-:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:67.54% (G:33.83% B:1.98%)67.50% (G:35.88% B:2.06%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:32.46% (G:7.16% B:0.49%)32.50% (G:7.43% B:0.63%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.649+1.351
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.829 (-0.171)±0.005 (+0.824..+0.834)
xg Double/Take:+1.000 (+0.000)±0.007 (+0.994..+1.007)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14456148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:54.3%
Duration: 17 hours 09 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] Pass
[11] Take


Mary Hickey recommends: Take

Neil does have a lot going for him here! He’s ahead in the race, though not by a critical amount; he has the bigger board; and he’s got a double shot at us. That gives him all three parts of the PRaT triad: Position, Race, and Threats. Does that mean we have a pass? Yeah, unless some or all of his PRaT components are wishy-washy, or we have significant Counterplay to fight back. Here, his PRaT components look strong, and the gammon threat is real, but we do have some pennies in the pool if we can fish them out in time.

First, he may not hit us outside, and if so, we may either be shooting at him or running our back man unimpeded into our own outerboard to start some counterplay against his two back men–unless we can do something even better, of course. Also if he doesn’t hit us, there will be a few variations where we catch up in the race and win even with nobody hitting anybody.

Second, if he does hit us, we still might bounce into a deep-anchor game with long-term winning chances, or hit an indirect return shot from the bar and get some traction from there.

We won’t be fully committed to any deep anchor game we get into, either, since there are always big doubles that allow us to shift into a holding game, or again, even win the race. The odds are against those big doubles on any one roll, but the odds shift a long way if we get a dozen or more tries!

And in all these cases, our chances of getting off an effective recube have to be decent. These redoubles will be especially powerful if we have developed any gammon threat of our own, because it’s an 11 point match, we’re now at 3, and so an 8-point win would let us win out with perfect efficiency.

So much for the good stuff…what about all the gammons he might win? Yes, they are a big worry, since he already has nine in the Zone and a top-three board. That’s not a threat we can ignore, and it may be strong enough that we should pass. I’m not going to fall off my Stability Ball in surprise if that’s the case, but I’m taking anyway because I think we have enough going for us to do so. YMMV, though, since my tendency is to take bad doubles more often than I pass takes.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

The USBGF Members’ 63 play was the only play to leave with a position where they could think about taking this cube. I have the best 3 point board and will be hitting with every roll except 63 which plays fine for me: 24/18 11/8. I have a racing lead as well as blitzing or blocking threats. The only reason to take is that I have both my checkers back on the 24 point so that if the readers survive what I throw at them they may turn it around with a good roll or two.

Is this enough for them to have a take? I’d pass at an even score in a long match for sure, but the score will matter somewhat here if the readers can turn this around and send me a 4 cube as I will have a somewhat higher take point than normal. Is this enough for a score-based take? I don’t know, but I suspect that this is technically a pass still.

Does reader collective skill factor mean much here? Well, currently my position is a bit more difficult to play but all I have to do usually is to hit for a couple of turns so it isn’t that difficult. If I close out the readers then any skill difference doesn’t matter, but if the readers survive my attack they still have to play the game from an inferior and often difficult position. My opinion remains that this is a practical flip a coin decision for them. It is wonderful to be able to cube when you absolutely don’t care from a perceived match equity standpoint whether your opponents take or pass. But then again, my 44 was a real joker leading to this.



Neil Kazaross wins 1 point and leads 6-away/8-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:32:3:5:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedBook124/21 13/11eq: -0.057
Player:
Opponent:
50.08% (G:14.22% B:0.83%)
49.92% (G:13.85% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.060...-0.053) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/22 13/10eq: -0.066 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
49.74% (G:14.17% B:0.79%)
50.26% (G:13.86% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.070...-0.062) - [0.0%]
3.Book113/11 13/10eq: -0.072 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
49.61% (G:15.72% B:0.94%)
50.39% (G:14.57% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.076...-0.067) - [0.0%]
 
1 Generated by Steven Carey on 8/10/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 13/11.

I almost always play 32 24/21 13/11 unless well behind in the match where I would be seeking more gammonish positions.



USBGF Members: 65 24/13


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 156
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--a-E-C---dFa--c-e----A-:0:0:-1:54:3:5:0:11:10
to play 54

1.xgRollout124/20 13/8eq: -0.164
Player:
Opponent:
46.97% (G:11.40% B:0.49%)
53.03% (G:12.19% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.176...-0.151) - [56.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
2.Rollout124/15eq: -0.166 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
47.48% (G:10.17% B:0.43%)
52.52% (G:12.94% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.178...-0.154) - [37.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 6/1*eq: -0.174 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
46.70% (G:11.69% B:0.35%)
53.30% (G:11.98% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.185...-0.162) - [5.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
4.playedRollout121/16 13/9eq: -0.184 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
46.82% (G:12.29% B:0.59%)
53.18% (G:13.47% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.197...-0.171) - [0.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
5.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: -0.186 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
46.44% (G:13.25% B:0.60%)
53.56% (G:13.19% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.197...-0.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
6.Rollout124/20 21/16eq: -0.191 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
47.08% (G:9.46% B:0.47%)
52.92% (G:13.04% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.203...-0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/16 13/9.

While I know many 3rd roll plays, I can’t claim to know this one. So I’ll take my shot at figuring it out looking at possible plays.

1) 24/15 is linked in the outfield, but I don’t like the diversified double hitting rolls. A similar idea with 24/20 21/16 looks worse.

2) 24/20 13/8 looks OK but vulnerable to an attack and I am sure that the USBGF Members won’t hesitate to double hit my blots that are on key points in their board. I fear too much downside if I don’t roll well from the bar.

3) 24/20 6/1* is an idea to try to protect my checkers on the 20 and 21 points, but this just doesn’t look like a good play to me.

4) I can try to stay out of serious immediate trouble with 21/16 13/9. If I am hitting with an 8 or 64 I have return shots. But I don’t like allowing my opponents to unstack their heavy mid point by hitting with 4’s. If I don’t get hit, I have a position that can easily improve over the next couple of rolls.

No play really accomplishes much and all have downsides. I will try 21/16 13/9 with this poor roll.



USBGF Members: 64 24/14*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 146
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----E-Ca--cFA-ac-e------:0:0:-1:62:3:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 16/10eq: -0.577
Player:
Opponent:
36.32% (G:7.69% B:0.24%)
63.68% (G:11.19% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.587...-0.567) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/7eq: -0.612 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
36.60% (G:8.42% B:0.34%)
63.40% (G:15.02% B:0.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.623...-0.601) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 9/3eq: -0.638 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
35.68% (G:8.53% B:0.35%)
64.32% (G:14.98% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.648...-0.627) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 16/10.

16/10 gets out of harms way and prepares to build up my board.



USBGF Members: 51 14/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 159
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-D---cF-aac-e------:0:0:-1:42:3:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.415
Player:
Opponent:
39.67% (G:9.72% B:0.35%)
60.33% (G:9.55% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.425...-0.405) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: -0.472 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
38.62% (G:8.98% B:0.35%)
61.38% (G:10.73% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.482...-0.461) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout123/21 13/9eq: -0.488 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
38.18% (G:7.77% B:0.32%)
61.82% (G:10.13% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.498...-0.478) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71416337
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/4.

The USBGF Members have escaped their two runners but still have what I call a 3 tower position, as they are all stacked on their 6, 8, and 13 points. I am substantially behind in the race. In general is clear for me to remain far back in my opponents board in this type of position. Therefore, my back checkers are fine where they are and I’ll just make my 4 point and get ready to hopefully hit next roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 153
             
11 point match
              pip: 140
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-D---cF-aab-d-b----:0:0:1:51:3:5:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-10

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 166
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--a-dbb--AA:0:0:1:63:3:4:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.963
Player:
Opponent:
32.40% (G:7.54% B:0.66%)
67.60% (G:34.37% B:2.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.979...-0.948) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 11/5eq: -1.000 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
31.06% (G:7.11% B:0.62%)
68.94% (G:36.54% B:2.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-1.011...-0.989) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -1.000 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
30.96% (G:7.16% B:0.54%)
69.04% (G:37.80% B:4.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-1.013...-0.987) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/22 24/18eq: -1.000 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
30.30% (G:6.65% B:0.52%)
69.70% (G:40.32% B:2.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-1.012...-0.988) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 14456148
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] b/16
[ 6] b/22 13/7
[ 3] b/22 11/5
[ 2] b/22 24/18


Mary Hickey recommends: b/16

None of our plays look good. Staying back in his board leaves him in a situation where he can roll his prime forward at the same time that he hits us, which isn’t good at all because he has enough builders to carry out a serious blocking threat, maybe even a closeout, if we don’t perform prontissimo. That would be pretty bad in itself, but it’s worse because we aren’t allowed to just pass on the 6–and every other way we can play it other than jumping out looks worse! The best of the bad lot might be 11/5, since it creates no new blots, and might allow us to end up with our 5 point when the dust settles. I don’t do that, though…I jump out 22/16, hope we aren’t hit, and then next turn run that checker to our own outer board, hoping he can help us build some kind of blocking structure of our own.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa-Aa-dbb--A-:0:0:-1:00:3:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2017-03-09

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:32:3:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/21 13/11eq: -0.203
Player:
Opponent:
44.70% (G:11.74% B:0.69%)
55.30% (G:17.66% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.215...-0.191) - [94.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 06 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 13/10eq: -0.217 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
44.09% (G:11.94% B:0.56%)
55.91% (G:17.92% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.229...-0.206) - [4.3%]
Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 6/4eq: -0.225 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
44.03% (G:12.57% B:0.77%)
55.97% (G:18.90% B:1.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.239...-0.211) - [0.8%]
Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 13/10eq: -0.226 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
43.90% (G:13.16% B:0.69%)
56.10% (G:18.19% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.237...-0.215) - [0.2%]
Duration: 5 hours 04 minutes
5.Rollout124/22 24/21eq: -0.232 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
44.17% (G:10.98% B:0.64%)
55.83% (G:17.94% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.243...-0.220) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 08 minutes
6.Rollout113/11 8/5eq: -0.284 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
43.07% (G:12.18% B:0.61%)
56.93% (G:18.86% B:1.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.297...-0.271) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40624827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/21 13/11
[ 6] 13/11 13/10
[ 4] 24/22 13/10
[ 1] 13/11 8/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 24/21 13/11

24/21 13/11 is the “book” answer, and I don’t see any reason to make an exception here. If he makes his 5 point, we want to be split so we can anchor and prevent ourselves being blocked in, and the builder on the 11 point is likely to be useful later.

BTW I agree with Neil about slotting at most scores with an opening 21, including many where the bot recommends switching over to splitting wit the ace. For example (I just checked to make sure the answer hadn’t changed!) if we were 4-0 in a match to 11, that is, 7a11a–the bot says split with an opening 21. Seriously? You won’t see me switching over with a score difference that small. I understand why at 2a11a and 3a11a we want to split, because we’re shooting for games that are less gammonish since we can’t use all four of the points on a doubled game, but earlier on, naah, bots schmots!

The bot makes it pick-’em at 8a11a and 9a11a, with a slight pull toward splitting.

But circling back to today’s problem, the book answer makes sense, so we can just roll with it.



Neil Kazaross: 44 13/5 8/4*(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
             
11 point match
              pip: 166
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C--AcDa--a-dbb--AA:0:0:1:63:3:4:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-08

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 18
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABA---------------dbcb-:1:-1:1:61:1:4:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout15/Off 2/1eq: +0.997
Player:
Opponent:
99.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.997...+0.997) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3.6 seconds
2.Rollout15/Off 4/3eq: +0.997 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
99.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.997...+0.997) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.2 seconds
3.Rollout15/Off 3/2eq: +0.996 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
99.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.996...+0.996) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.7 seconds
4.Rollout15/Offeq: +0.995 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
99.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.995...+0.995) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.8 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40624827
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 5/0 2/1
[ 5] 5/0 4/3
[ 1] 5/0 5/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/0 2/1

Now 5/off 2/1 looks to be best, catering to those (x,1) vs (x,2) endings. When you don’t make a play like this one in the final stages, it tends to be because you have badness involving the smaller doubles, and here that’s not the case; 22 and 33 both get two checkers off after we play 2/1. We even get a bonus on double 1, which then gets two men off, but it doesn’t after 4/3. The only downside I see is that after 2/1, we don’t get two off with 32. That isn’t a big enough deal to push me off the standard ending play in the absence of recube possibilities (and often even when those possibilities exist): 5/off 2/1.



Neil Kazaross: 52 4/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 33 4/1 4/0 3/0

USBGF Members win two points. Neil Kazaross leads 7-away/8-away.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:21:3:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedBook113/11 6/5eq: -0.049
Player:
Opponent:
50.35% (G:14.47% B:0.72%)
49.65% (G:14.39% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.053...-0.045) - [77.9%]
2.Book124/23 13/11eq: -0.051 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
49.93% (G:14.21% B:0.70%)
50.07% (G:13.64% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.055...-0.048) - [22.1%]
 
1 Generated by Steven Carey on 8/11/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/11 6/5.

I almost always slot an opening 21.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:32:3:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-07

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 41
             
11 point match
              pip: 33
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABD-------------a-ebcc-:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout15/Off 2/1eq: +0.929
Player:
Opponent:
96.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.928...+0.929) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout15/Off 4/3eq: +0.928 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.927...+0.928) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
3.playedRollout15/4 5/Offeq: +0.928 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
96.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.927...+0.928) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69344051
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] 5/0 5/4
[ 8] 5/0 2/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/0 5/4

One more hair to split! I like 5/off 5/4, avoiding weirdness where we roll a bunch of tiny numbers and somehow end up with a stack on our 5 point at the end. Still, it’s hard to see why there’d be much difference between this play and the entirely reasonable 5/off 2/1, which caters to endings where our last two checkers are arranged (x, 1) instead the less favorable (x,2), and he’s rolled enough doubles that it matters.

Which asteroid are you more worried will hit our game? Vote accordingly :0)



Neil Kazaross: 41 4/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 64 5/0 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 51 6/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 30
             
11 point match
              pip: 18
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABA---------------dbcb-:1:-1:1:61:1:4:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 3/8 135p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2017-03-06

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 58
             
11 point match
              pip: 46
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---CCE-------aa------ebcc-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout14/Off 3/2eq: +0.885
Player:
Opponent:
94.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.885...+0.886) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds
2.Rollout15/Offeq: +0.884 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
94.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.884...+0.884) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26357969
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 4/0 3/2
[14] 5/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 4/0 3/2

Another play that can’t matter very much. I went with 4/off 3/2 to diversify, but would not have done so if it left only one checker on the 4 point, risking a gap there. Of course it still might happen, but it’s not too likely. We have both 6s and 5s to remove checkers from the point above it, plus we might use an ace from it to restock the 4 point with another checker, so gapping doesn’t look like too great a danger. (And of course, we might gap there and not roll another 4–the gap won’t cost us if we don’t roll its number.)



Neil Kazaross: 54 12/8 11/6
USBGF Members: 63 5/0 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 53 8/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 41
             
11 point match
              pip: 33
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AABD-------------a-ebcc-:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-05

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 74
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aCCF---a-----------ebcc-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout15/Offeq: +0.987
Player:
Opponent:
98.37% (G:2.06% B:0.02%)
1.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.987...+0.988) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31.6 seconds
2.Rollout15/4 5/1eq: +0.981 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
98.30% (G:1.66% B:0.01%)
1.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.981...+0.982) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.5 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26357969
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 5/0
[ 3] 5/4 5/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/0

The danger of our being hit and then losing the game if we leave “five on the end” by playing 5/off is a ghost that we can’t let scare us too much. He still can’t rebuild his board, so if we take four men off with a double–well, that’s four more men off, improving our chances for the win after a hit, and also the chances for a long-shot gammon if he misses us.

I like 5/off, but once again I’m not going sad-panda on anybody who wants to play safe (especially if they turn out to be right, LOL), as long as they considered the pros and cons of both alternatives. This can’t be a huge difference, mainly because we’re trading off very small numbers–what Marty Storer calls “viglets”.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 74
             
11 point match
              pip: 46
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aCCE---a-----------ebcc-:1:-1:-1:44:1:4:0:11:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout123/15 16/8eq: -0.922
Player:
Opponent:
3.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.34% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.922...-0.922) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds
2.playedRollout123/11 16/12eq: -0.923 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.37% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.923...-0.922) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds
3.Rollout123/7eq: -0.929 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
3.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.67% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.930...-0.929) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26357969
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/11 16/12.

The gammon is saved now. If I ever am to win this game it starts with 66 next turn so I will maximize crossovers.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 58
             
11 point match
              pip: 46
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---CCE-------aa------ebcc-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-04

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 81
             
11 point match
              pip: 55
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCCDB--------------ebcc-:1:-1:1:11:1:4:0:11:10
to play 11

1.xgRollout15/3 1/Off(2)eq: +1.039
Player:
Opponent:
97.01% (G:9.45% B:0.19%)
2.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.038...+1.040) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 40 seconds
2.playedRollout16/5(2) 1/Off(2)eq: +1.034 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
98.18% (G:6.61% B:0.12%)
1.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.034...+1.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout15/4(2) 1/Off(2)eq: +1.032 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
97.16% (G:8.46% B:0.15%)
2.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.031...+1.032) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 26357969
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 6/5(2) 1/0(2)
[ 7] 5/3 1/0(2)
[ 1] 5/4(2) 1/0(2)


Mary Hickey recommends: 5/3 1/0(2)

Taking two checkers off the ace point seems clear, since it’s better for getting a gammon…but also, for just the win! Remember what I’ve often said, and you know is true: “There’s no such thing as a won race!” A couple of big sets, and he could be back in contention here with his speedboard and owning the cube.

Well, then what? Taking a little extra risk of being hit if it gains some gammons makes sense to consider, especially at this score. And the best way to get a gammon is having him not escape for a while, if we can arrange that. This makes 5/3 pretty strong here, making his almost sure-save 44s into a null number, and giving him fewer double-jump rolls also. We don’t like those because they give us no chance to point on the one he leaves behind.

Playing 6/5(2) instead, because you are hearing Kit Woolsey intoning from somewhere out west, “A point cleared is a point not to be feared!” can’t be a terrible play, but I just don’t think it’s quite “forcing” enough given the score. If he had a bigger board, I might go that route, but then again maybe not if he had only two checkers on whatever the higher point was. Then his smaller 4s would break that point, and that would be good, too.

So it looks to me like 5/3 1/off(2) is the way to go, reaching for a few more gammons.



Neil Kazaross: 43 23/16


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 74
             
11 point match
              pip: 51
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aCCF---a-----------ebcc-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-03

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 66
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBDC--A-----a--a-acbbc-:1:-1:1:65:1:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout19/4 6/Offeq: +1.014
Player:
Opponent:
95.60% (G:10.32% B:0.15%)
4.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.012...+1.017) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 5/Offeq: +0.981 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
94.54% (G:9.59% B:0.14%)
5.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.979...+0.984) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout19/3 6/1eq: +0.934 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
93.79% (G:7.03% B:0.07%)
6.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.932...+0.936) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54419437
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 9/4 6/0
[ 6] 9/3 5/0


Mary Hickey recommends: 9/4 6/0

9/4 6/off is standard here. We like having diverse spares, and we want to prepare to clear from the back, so there’s nothing not to like with this play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 55
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCCDB--------a--a-acbbc-:1:-1:-1:33:1:4:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout110/4 7/4 5/2eq: -1.047
Player:
Opponent:
2.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.02% (G:10.16% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.047...-1.046) - [99.4%]
Duration: 29 minutes 38 seconds
2.xgRollout110/1 7/4eq: -1.048 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.92% (G:10.46% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.049...-1.047) - [0.6%]
Duration: 30 minutes 40 seconds
3.Rollout110/1 4/1eq: -1.055 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
3.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.73% (G:11.56% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.056...-1.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout110/1 5/2eq: -1.061 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
2.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.05% (G:11.35% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.061...-1.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 20 seconds
5.Rollout17/1 5/2 4/1eq: -1.087 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
2.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.06% (G:13.67% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.087...-1.086) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75405437
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4 7/4 5/2.

Since I need to run a checker next turn if I roll large enough to do so to try to save the gammon, I see no need to save a 6 now nor to leave a blot in my board that can’t be covered easily.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 81
             
11 point match
              pip: 55
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCCDB--------------ebcc-:1:-1:1:11:1:4:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-03-01

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 71
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBCB-BA--a--aa----cbbc-:1:-1:1:32:1:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/6 8/5eq: +0.959
Player:
Opponent:
92.42% (G:11.81% B:0.40%)
7.58% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.956...+0.962) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout19/4eq: +0.870 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
90.00% (G:9.01% B:0.23%)
10.00% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.867...+0.873) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout19/6 3/1eq: +0.848 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
89.75% (G:7.77% B:0.14%)
10.25% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.845...+0.851) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81166113
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 8/6 8/5
[ 5] 9/4
[ 2] 9/6 3/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/6 8/5

We aren’t the ones that benefit from further contact, which suggests that clearing the 8 point will be correct unless it’s quite dangerous. Getting rid of the potentially dangerous gap is good too, again because contact favors Neil and not us. Leaving him four ways to hit in the outfield doesn’t look excessive, given that we still have “life after death” if he hits us. And as was the case yesterday, though not to as great a degree, one of those hits might turn out to be “the lucky shot that gets him gammoned”.

Did someone say gammons? We can still win one here, even if he never gives us a chance to close him out. A failed deuce point game saves more gammons than a failed ace point game, partly because even one pip closer to home for each back men can matter, and partly because the player tends to know sooner when it has failed or is about to, and that he therefore should make a dash for it. But the deuce point game doesn’t always save when it fails, so we should think about the benefits of starting our bearoff ASAP to give him less game-time to save the gammon. Clearing the 8 now heads us in that direction, which is one more good reason to like it, especially at the score.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 66
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBDC--A--a--aa----cbbc-:1:-1:-1:64:1:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.xgRollout113/7 10/6eq: -0.990
Player:
Opponent:
4.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.34% (G:8.60% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.991...-0.989) - [81.4%]
Duration: 38 minutes 25 seconds
2.playedRollout113/7 9/5eq: -0.990 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
4.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.21% (G:8.90% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.991...-0.989) - [18.6%]
Duration: 38 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81166113
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 9/5.

I should try to remake a 5 point board and hope for a shot soon. So I play 13/7 for a builder but there’s then little to choose between 10/6 and 9/5. I will go with 9/5 as it looks like more rolls can cover my 5th point next turn.

Note that had I rolled a 7 here, this time I’d quickly hit in spite of 13 very gammonish return shot since now, with my opponents 8 point gone, I can win this going forward after a hit more often.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 93
             
11 point match
              pip: 66
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBDC--A-----a--a-acbbc-:1:-1:1:65:1:4:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-28

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 74
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbC-DC-BAb-----a----cbbc-:1:-1:1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout16/4 5/4eq: +0.888
Player:
Opponent:
89.85% (G:10.91% B:0.26%)
10.15% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.885...+0.891) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout19/6eq: +0.799 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
86.66% (G:9.75% B:0.24%)
13.34% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.796...+0.802) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 6/4 5/4
[ 2] 9/6


Mary Hickey recommends: 6/4 5/4

This is the time to get rid of that gap on our 4 point, before he’s had a chance to rebuild one of the two missing high points in his board. The danger of getting hit will be greater then, and so will the chance we leave a shot, if we still have the gap when our bearoff begins. Make the point, 6/4 5/4, and let him worry about whether he’s even supposed to hit this early, if he rolls that 52! It might win the game, yes, but it also might be “the lucky shot that gets him gammoned.”


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 71
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBCB-BAb-----a----cbbc-:1:-1:-1:52:1:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout115/13 15/10eq: -0.901
Player:
Opponent:
9.91% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
90.09% (G:11.52% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.904...-0.898) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout115/10 9/7eq: -0.909 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
9.92% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
90.08% (G:12.32% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.912...-0.906) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout115/8eq: -0.913 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
9.91% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
90.09% (G:12.34% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.916...-0.910) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 48 seconds
4.Rollout115/10 4/2eq: -0.919 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
9.89% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
90.11% (G:13.17% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.922...-0.916) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 24 seconds
5.Rollout115/13 9/4eq: -0.932 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
8.75% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
91.25% (G:11.89% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.934...-0.929) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 26 seconds
6.Rollout19/2eq: -0.943 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
8.71% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
91.29% (G:12.72% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.945...-0.940) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
7.Rollout123/16*eq: -0.961 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
21.58% (G:1.66% B:0.03%)
78.42% (G:41.34% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.965...-0.958) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81166113
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/13 15/10.

I have rolled a number that allows me to hit and open myself up to crushing counterattacks. My usual way to handle a score-based problem is to try to solve it for money play first and then adjust for score. So if I determine that I am very unsure whether to hit for money or not, I will play safe here since it is worse for me to lose a gammon than for money and since I have less recube vig at this score.

If I hit, I am return hit with 13 rolls and I hate everyone of them as I will often lose a gammon. It is still difficult for me to win after hitting as I remain with one checker stuck in a 5 point board that can only escape with 5’s. Even if my opponents dance (44%) and I escape with a 5 (31%), I still don’t look like a favorite, as I will still be behind in pips and I have a 4 point board with 2 dead checkers. I will be at risk as soon as they enter, and if I fumble the ball and get hit after escaping I can still even be gammoned. Of course, I will be at risk of nearly instant death after hitting if I cannot get a quick 5 before my opponents enter from the bar.

So lets estimate how often I can win after hitting. It looks difficult, but I do have a 4 point board and can maybe get outfield control if I can hop out with a 5 in time. But all in all, with 2 dead checkers and a crashed board, things look bad. I doubt that I can win much over 20%. How often will I be gammoned after hitting? I am very often gammoned when ever I am hit at any time with more than one blot exposed. I expect to lose a gammon about half the time I lose the game so 40% seems to be a good figure.

So lets say that I don’t hit. I think I can still win 10%, noting that 65 and 63 blot and then I should be able to safely hit, as my opponents will have fewer counter attacking rolls. By not hitting with this 52 I can still lose a gammon but I don’t think much more than 10% of the time.

So to me it seems that hitting should gain about 10% wins at the cost of 30% extra gammons lost. Maybe I am too pessimistic but there’s some added backgammon losses after hitting as well, so it appears to me to be wrong to hit for money.

Note that for money or at a more even score in a long match the cubeful effects of winning more often mean that the cost of extra gammons lost vs extra wins gained doesn’t really trade 2:1. The usual cubeful ratio is more like 2.5:1. But here in this position that ratio may be as high as 3:1 and there’s the small chance to lose a backgammon with 3 checkers closed out as well. I really cannot see it being correct to hit for money, so there’s no way I will hit at this score.

My best play therefore is 15/13 15/10, so my blocked 44 and 43 make a new point in my board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
             
11 point match
              pip: 71
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBCB-BA--a--aa----cbbc-:1:-1:1:32:1:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-27

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AbAcDCBBB----------bcbba-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout17/6 7/3eq: +0.823
Player:
Opponent:
80.64% (G:24.36% B:0.66%)
19.36% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.818...+0.828) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout16/1eq: +0.716 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
76.81% (G:23.43% B:0.63%)
23.19% (G:1.98% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.711...+0.721) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 7/6 7/3
[ 4] 6/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 7/6 7/3

We have our chance to cover the 3 point, 7/6 7/3, clearing the bar point in the process. While rolling a block home from the back is a good general principle, it’s not an overriding one. Here, clearing the bar does more for us than just covering the 3 point. It also makes some of his 5s very bad, costing him his back anchor. That’s a big deal, because if he runs with a 6 and buys some time to save his board, the most likely way for him to win will be from a well-timed deuce point game, made a little better for him by our gap on the 4 point. But he can’t win that way if our play and the dice conspire to force him off it now!



Neil Kazaross: 44 5/1(2)
USBGF Members: 65 9/3 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 134
             
11 point match
              pip: 74
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCcDC-BA-----------cbbc-:1:-1:-1:66:1:4:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout121/15(2) 21/9eq: -0.831
Player:
Opponent:
13.22% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
86.78% (G:12.60% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.835...-0.828) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout121/9(2)eq: -1.018 (-0.187)
Player:
Opponent:
12.13% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
87.87% (G:26.72% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.022...-1.015) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/15(2) 21/9.

This is a good roll for a missing number. Hopefully I can now run off the gammon and I still retain small winning chances. It would be horrible to leave a checker on the 21 point under the gun of 4 builders greatly increasing my gammon risk, so I run all 3 out.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
             
11 point match
              pip: 74
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbC-DC-BAb-----a----cbbc-:1:-1:1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-26

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 96
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Ab-cCDBCB---------bbcaaa-:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout18/3 6/5eq: +0.689
Player:
Opponent:
76.06% (G:22.42% B:0.66%)
23.94% (G:1.86% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.685...+0.694) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout18/7 6/1eq: +0.635 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
74.16% (G:21.96% B:0.60%)
25.84% (G:2.35% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.630...+0.640) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 8/3 6/5
[13] 8/7 6/1


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/3 6/5

8/3 6/5 works for me today for the same reasons as yesterday: 1) We want to roll our forward position in smoothly, gaining the 3 point in the process so we won’t have a gap during the bearoff, and 2) His hitting rolls are mostly awful, so if he rolls an ace we don’t have to care very much. He’s not well set up to win going forward, and so will likely choose not to hit us even if he can, especially with the ace-x rolls that cost him his 6 point. If he does roll an ace, I’m sure he’d throw it back if he could, to try again for the 6 he desperately needs to preserve his board and his timing.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AbAcDCBBB---------bbcaaa-:1:-1:-1:43:1:4:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.723
Player:
Opponent:
23.11% (G:1.75% B:0.05%)
76.89% (G:23.72% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.728...-0.718) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 4/1eq: -0.754 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
22.48% (G:1.55% B:0.03%)
77.52% (G:24.83% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.759...-0.749) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout15/2 5/1eq: -0.781 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
21.01% (G:1.37% B:0.02%)
78.99% (G:24.31% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.786...-0.776) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout16/3 5/1eq: -0.792 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
21.48% (G:1.42% B:0.02%)
78.52% (G:26.33% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.798...-0.787) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout15/1 4/1eq: -0.871 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:
18.82% (G:1.08% B:0.03%)
81.18% (G:27.65% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.876...-0.866) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/3 6/2.

This game is going from bad to worse but at least I can clear my 6 point and kill 5’s, while making two lower points. If I cannot escape my spare on the 21 point next turn and I roll a 4, I will likely clear my 5 point and kill 4’s and retain some small chances with a 4 point board. But of course I think optimistically and hope to escape and then make a 5 point board. This was all part of my plan with my last play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 142
             
11 point match
              pip: 90
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AbAcDCBBB----------bcbba-:1:-1:1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-25

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 105
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--b-cBEBCC---------cbda---:1:-1:1:54:1:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.xgRollout19/5 8/3eq: +0.642
Player:
Opponent:
75.15% (G:20.19% B:0.62%)
24.85% (G:1.72% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.637...+0.647) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 53 seconds
2.playedRollout19/5 6/1eq: +0.599 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
73.18% (G:20.48% B:0.61%)
26.82% (G:2.36% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.594...+0.604) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 9/5 6/1
[ 8] 9/5 8/3


Mary Hickey recommends: 9/5 8/3

The only reasonable 4 is 9/5, and there are no combinations that make any other 4 work, so let’s start with that. There is a safe 5 that also unstacks, but when we are bearing in against a decent backgame, we have to consider slotting a missing point in front of either or both of his anchors. We can do that here, 8/3, to ensure to the extent possible that we own it before we start our bearoff.

The slot may look dangerous, but how bad is it, really? How likely is he to want to hit us, especially with awful rolls like 15, 14 and 12? His other aces aren’t all that special, either; if he hits us, he’s more likely to hurt his timing than help it. We have a few bad rolls from the bar, such as 24 and 14, but even those numbers leave him with a very long road to a win going forward.

So it looks like a good time to slot rather than dump a man behind him, even though there are plenty of spares on the point we’d be dumping from. Defending against games that include the deuce point have a tendency to draw checkers to the ace point anyway, so there’s no hurry to start doing that! I’d rather try to roll our block smoothly, including making the 3 point, and so prefer 9/4 8/3.

BTW the way I got started routinely considering slotting plays like this one was because I noticed that Steve Sax did it a lot. I figured he must have his reasons, and found that both logic and the bots backed up his strategy when the danger wasn’t excessive. This position looks to be one that qualifies.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 96
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Ab-cCDBCB---------cbda---:1:-1:-1:43:1:4:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout16/2 4/1eq: -0.659
Player:
Opponent:
25.26% (G:1.92% B:0.07%)
74.74% (G:22.65% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.665...-0.654) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.680 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
24.46% (G:1.92% B:0.07%)
75.54% (G:22.86% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.685...-0.674) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout15/1 4/1eq: -0.701 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
23.69% (G:1.58% B:0.04%)
76.31% (G:23.10% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.706...-0.696) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 46 seconds
4.Rollout16/3 5/1eq: -0.716 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
23.41% (G:1.56% B:0.06%)
76.59% (G:23.53% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.721...-0.711) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 23 seconds
5.Rollout16/2 5/2eq: -0.719 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
23.08% (G:1.63% B:0.05%)
76.92% (G:23.40% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.725...-0.714) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/2 4/1.

I needed a 6 and didn’t roll one. Failing a 6, a very small number would’ve been OK. This is a medium sized number, and I have to think positively and hope to escape a checker next turn. If I were sure to crash further the conventional play would be to break my 6 point now with 6/3 6/2 making certain of making my 3 point and taking less pain on 55. However, I am not close to certain to crash next turn. I may roll a 6, and if my opponents roll a 6 or most doubles they have to break their 5 prime giving me more escaping rolls.

So I prefer to play 6/2 4/1. Now, if I roll a blocked 5, I will play it 6/1 and then if I want to kill 5’s I can move the other checker from my 6 point. Of course I won’t like my choice if I roll 55 unless I can escape with it.

6/2 4/1 — thinking hopefully.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 149
             
11 point match
              pip: 96
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-Ab-cCDBCB---------bbcaaa-:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-24

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-cBEBCB-----Aa--cbca---:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.xgRollout16/5 6/1*eq: +0.750
Player:
Opponent:
75.85% (G:29.00% B:0.96%)
24.15% (G:3.45% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.748...+0.753) - [70.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 15 minutes
2.playedRollout115/9eq: +0.749 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
76.98% (G:26.36% B:0.71%)
23.02% (G:2.56% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.747...+0.752) - [30.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 37 minutes
3.Rollout18/3 6/5eq: +0.745 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
75.92% (G:28.34% B:1.02%)
24.08% (G:3.48% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.742...+0.747) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 56 minutes
4.Rollout28/7 6/1*eq: +0.734 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
75.52% (G:28.43% B:0.84%)
24.48% (G:3.53% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.728...+0.739) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 05 seconds
5.Rollout215/14 6/1*eq: +0.727 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
75.50% (G:27.84% B:0.91%)
24.50% (G:3.55% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.721...+0.733) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 29 seconds
6.Rollout215/14 8/3eq: +0.718 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
75.41% (G:27.03% B:1.03%)
24.59% (G:3.58% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.712...+0.724) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 20 seconds
7.Rollout28/2*eq: +0.710 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
74.28% (G:28.62% B:1.43%)
25.72% (G:3.88% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.704...+0.717) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 25 seconds
8.Rollout215/10 6/5eq: +0.687 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
74.64% (G:26.13% B:0.99%)
25.36% (G:3.96% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.681...+0.693) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 19 seconds
9.Rollout27/2* 2/1*eq: +0.648 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
71.07% (G:32.03% B:1.11%)
28.93% (G:7.40% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.642...+0.654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 15/9
[ 3] 15/10 6/5
[ 3] 6/5 6/1*


Mary Hickey recommends:

All our options are unsatisfactory, one way or another. If we could slot our 3 point using a checker from our overstacked 6 point, that might be the way to go, but I can’t see stripping the 8 point to do it with our 5. If we had a way to blast both his back checkers off the board without giving up our bar point and leaving a blot there, I’d look at that, too. A play like that to prevent his making a second anchor can be the right idea in these situations, if it doesn’t involve as much danger as it does here, and if the follow-up when it worked was easier. I did look at it awhile, though.

So I ended up “circling back” to the very simple and straightforward 15/9. This abandons the idea of sending him back if he runs his spare on the anchor, but we can live with that. At least it lands on a point that didn’t have a spare before, which could make it easier for us to roll our block forward.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 105
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-cBEBCC------a--cbca---:1:-1:-1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout124/23 9/4eq: -0.619
Player:
Opponent:
25.65% (G:2.18% B:0.08%)
74.35% (G:20.19% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.624...-0.614) - [99.9%]
Duration: 29 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 6/1eq: -0.630 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
25.28% (G:2.03% B:0.07%)
74.72% (G:20.43% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.635...-0.625) - [0.1%]
Duration: 27 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 9/4.

Finally I can grab a 2nd anchor before an attack comes behind my 4 point anchor! For the 5, I am staying off my ace point, so I play 9/4. I don’t need to save 6’s and I am leaving with the next one.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 156
             
11 point match
              pip: 105
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=--b-cBEBCC---------cbda---:1:-1:1:54:1:4:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-23

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBEaCC---A-Ab--cbba---:1:-1:1:62:1:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7* 9/7eq: +0.700
Player:
Opponent:
74.63% (G:26.93% B:0.98%)
25.37% (G:3.23% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.694...+0.705) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout19/7* 7/1*eq: +0.571 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:
69.48% (G:28.50% B:0.77%)
30.52% (G:6.45% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.565...+0.577) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout113/7* 7/5eq: +0.554 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:
69.64% (G:25.07% B:1.02%)
30.36% (G:4.24% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.548...+0.560) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 13/7* 9/7
[ 3] 13/7*/5


Mary Hickey recommends: 13/7* 9/7

When you want to block an opponent long enough for him to crack his board and not be as much of a threat to you later on, a prime is usually the way to go. It also tends to be easier to “roll” a block in front of an anchor if there are no gaps in it. I don’t see any reason that this position would be an exception to any of these common BG themes, so let’s make the bar and let him get out of there in time to save his board if he can.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 169
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--cBEBCB-----Ab--cbba---:1:-1:-1:52:1:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 9/4eq: -0.833
Player:
Opponent:
22.57% (G:3.23% B:0.17%)
77.43% (G:32.61% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.839...-0.827) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/1eq: -0.881 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
21.64% (G:2.76% B:0.08%)
78.36% (G:35.01% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.888...-0.875) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 9/4.

Bar/23 9/4 is basically forced with this rather poor roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 111
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-cBEBCB-----Aa--cbca---:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-22

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBE-CB---B-abA-cbba---:1:-1:1:42:1:4:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout117/15* 15/11eq: +0.551
Player:
Opponent:
70.59% (G:22.73% B:0.96%)
29.41% (G:5.01% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.545...+0.557) - [100.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 38 seconds
2.playedRollout117/15* 13/9eq: +0.531 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
69.83% (G:23.04% B:0.95%)
30.17% (G:5.20% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.525...+0.537) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 17/15* 13/9
[14] 17/15*/11
[ 1] 17/11


Mary Hickey recommends: 17/15* 13/9

We want to hit because of the added gammons, so we start with 17/15*. Then we can either keep going with 15/11, or play 13/9 which looks more flexible and gives us more ways to make the 3 point safely, which could be quite important if he either enters there or makes the ace anchor. On the downside, it also leaves us with a bit more cleanup that must be done right away, or at least very soon, once he enters. 13/9 isn’t any better than 15/11 for making the bar point, but we can win without it if we have to. I don’t think the extra blot is all that big a big deal, and I like increasing our focus on the 3 point, so I like 13/9 for the 4.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 169
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--cBE-CC---A-Ab--cbba---:1:-1:-1:52:1:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/18eq: -0.592
Player:
Opponent:
28.00% (G:4.96% B:0.28%)
72.00% (G:24.01% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.598...-0.586) - [100.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 9/4eq: -0.632 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
26.74% (G:4.48% B:0.31%)
73.26% (G:24.53% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.637...-0.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74938449
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/18.

Well, now I wish that I’d passed this cube! Anyhow I need action and I am still only facing a 2 point board so out I come.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
             
11 point match
              pip: 119
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBEaCC---A-Ab--cbba---:1:-1:1:62:1:4:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-21

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBE-CB---B-abA-cbba---:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in RolloutNo doubleDouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:71.06% (G:15.76% B:0.48%)71.31% (G:16.79% B:0.54%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:28.94% (G:4.89% B:0.15%)28.69% (G:5.16% B:0.23%)
  Cubeless Equities+0.536+1.148
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.900 (-0.100)±0.003 (+0.897..+0.903)
played Double/Take:+1.007 (+0.007)±0.005 (+1.002..+1.012)
xg Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71892472
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.8%
Duration: 8 hours 45 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] Double
[12] No Double


Mary Hickey recommends: Double

Hey, he finally missed us! That doesn’t mean we automatically have a cube, but I still see one here, especially at this score. Let’s look at some possible outcomes: 1) We miss. So, we just come home as quietly as we can, and try to win the race after we get past him. This will be a rather standard holding game, which means we’re the favorites, though he’d have enough potential action to take. 2) We hit and he makes our ace, deuce, or three point. Yes, he has a backgame now, but its timing may or may not hold. But even if his timing works out perfectly, we haven’t left a shot yet, and he hasn’t hit it yet! 3) We hit and he fails to make another anchor. Now he has worse than normal holding game equity because of having so many men back. His chances of hitting and winning are probably about the same as in Item 1, but he will lose more gammons than in that case. If this happens, we will have lost our market.

Did someone say gammons? At this score, we sure could use one, and a doubled one would be even better. Time to try our luck at rolling a 2, since the risk when we miss isn’t all that high unless we roll 11, which we aren’t going to do.


Neil Kazaross takes.

This looks like a clear take at a “normal” score but at this score, my recube vig is somewhat less than normal and my cost of losing a gammon is somewhat higher than normal. Most of my opponents rolls play OK for them for now, but I think that the are awkward enough to give me some play. I should also be able to make a stronger board soon and if hit can hope for a 2nd anchor. Whether I am hit or not, I can hope to hop into the outfield and increase contact.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBE-CB---B-abA-cbba---:1:-1:1:42:1:4:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-20

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--c-F-DB-b-B--aA-cbba---:0:0:1:31:1:4:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.493
Player:
Opponent:
59.96% (G:16.86% B:0.83%)
40.04% (G:11.39% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.489...+0.498) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 24 minutes
2.xgRollout117/16* 16/13eq: +0.481 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
58.97% (G:17.47% B:0.72%)
41.03% (G:9.31% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.476...+0.486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 44 minutes
3.Rollout217/13eq: +0.432 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
60.22% (G:11.41% B:0.35%)
39.78% (G:10.40% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.423...+0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92328857
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92328857
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[17] 8/5 6/5
[13] 17/16*/13
[ 6] 17/13


Mary Hickey recommends: 8/5 6/5

We can make a blot-free play today by running our back man to the midpoint, either hitting or not hitting along the way. But that blot-free situation is unlikely to last long! Our position remains precarious, while he makes his board in order unimpeded. Today I’m making our 5 point, which still leaves a double shot, but the badness stops there. We use one of the spares from each of our two stacked points to make the best point in our board, producing a lasting asset and leaving us with what I call “passive counterplay” if we do get hit. Even if we can’t are hit and then fan or just can’t disengage our back man as quickly as we’d like, we can count on our block to give him headaches as he tries to get his four back men away from us. To me, thinking long-term here beats out immediate safety, and means making that five point and keeping it till the bearoff!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBE-CB-b-B--aA-cbba---:0:0:-1:54:1:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout114/10 14/9eq: -0.981
Player:
Opponent:
28.82% (G:5.13% B:0.22%)
71.18% (G:15.92% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.992...-0.969) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
2.xgRollout19/4 6/2eq: -1.000 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
28.89% (G:5.95% B:0.25%)
71.11% (G:17.71% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.008...-0.992) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout19/5 6/1eq: -1.000 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
27.22% (G:5.06% B:0.28%)
72.78% (G:17.12% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
4.Rollout114/9 6/2eq: -1.000 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
27.46% (G:4.50% B:0.23%)
72.54% (G:21.75% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
5.Rollout114/5eq: -1.000 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
27.68% (G:4.65% B:0.17%)
72.32% (G:22.97% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-1.007...-0.993) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
6.Rollout19/4 5/1eq: -1.000 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
24.64% (G:4.09% B:0.11%)
75.36% (G:17.23% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.005...-0.995) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 71892472
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 14/10 14/9.

I’ll play 14/10 14/9 since the alternative makes it too unlikely that I can have a good board soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
             
11 point match
              pip: 125
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--cBE-CB---B-abA-cbba---:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-19

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ab-FaDB---B--ab-cbb---A:0:0:1:52:1:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/18eq: +0.041
Player:
Opponent:
49.78% (G:13.02% B:0.59%)
50.22% (G:16.23% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.029...+0.053) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/1*eq: -0.113 (-0.154)
Player:
Opponent:
45.91% (G:13.55% B:0.49%)
54.09% (G:18.27% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.125...-0.101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 8/3*eq: -0.259 (-0.300)
Player:
Opponent:
42.47% (G:12.74% B:0.64%)
57.53% (G:20.57% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.271...-0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79797981
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] b/18
[ 1] b/23 6/1*
[ 1] b/23 8/3*


Mary Hickey recommends: b/18

Yes, I know the definition of insanity, but we have to do the same thing and hope for a different result. The more attackers he has in the Zone, the more urgent our escape becomes, even here where he doesn’t rate to close us out for a long time. Once again, we have no good Play B, so bar/18 is it.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 130
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ab-FaDB---B--abAcbb----:0:0:-1:41:1:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout122/18 8/7*eq: +0.104
Player:
Opponent:
53.88% (G:18.39% B:0.78%)
46.12% (G:13.53% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.090...+0.117) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout118/14 8/7*eq: +0.068 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
53.45% (G:18.05% B:0.90%)
46.55% (G:14.78% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.055...+0.080) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79797981
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/18 8/7*.

This is straight forward as I hit 8/7* and then play 22/18, re-establishing a presence in my opponents outfield. If they can hit from the bar (12 shots) I will be quite happy to have that 2nd anchor and I can just re-enter and play. If they don’t hit from the bar, many entries play poorly and I am also ready to continue my attack/board building.



USBGF Members: 53 b/17*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 179
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--b-FbDB---B--aAacbb----:0:0:-1:44:1:4:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 18/14(2) 7/3eq: -0.417
Player:
Opponent:
41.13% (G:10.85% B:0.39%)
58.87% (G:14.26% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.421...-0.412) - [99.9%]
Duration: 11 hours 23 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/21 18/14(2) 9/5eq: -0.426 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
40.41% (G:11.03% B:0.43%)
59.59% (G:13.27% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.431...-0.422) - [0.1%]
Duration: 10 hours 07 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79797981
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 18/14(2) 7/3.

18/14(2) is basically forced and gives me direct contact with their blot that I’d love to recapture. Now I have two choice for my final 4. 9/5 is safe, but am I really concerned with fewer blots when I already have 4 checkers back and am far behind in pips? Therefore, I think 7/3 is more to the point as when not hit I will have 28 rolls to make my 3 point and a fine 4 point board. A couple of their rolls with hitting aces are also duped for other purposes.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 163
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--c-F-DB-b-B--aA-cbba---:0:0:1:31:1:4:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-18

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 182
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ca-F-DB--bB--a--cbb---A:0:0:1:62:1:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/17eq: +0.120
Player:
Opponent:
50.65% (G:15.76% B:0.65%)
49.35% (G:14.47% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.107...+0.132) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/2eq: -0.033 (-0.153)
Player:
Opponent:
46.71% (G:15.81% B:0.71%)
53.29% (G:17.25% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.045...-0.021) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71117745
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] b/17
[ 1] b/23 8/2


Mary Hickey recommends: b/17

bar/17 walks into a double shot, but this is yet another case of “Well, what’s Play B?” We don’t want a second blot for him to start kicking around, and there are no one-blot options other than bar/17. There is a little positivity here, though: This play has the upside of getting us out of his board if he misses.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 182
             
11 point match
              pip: 129
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ca-F-DB--bB--aA-cbb----:0:0:-1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout122/21 13/8*eq: +0.008
Player:
Opponent:
52.43% (G:16.35% B:0.80%)
47.57% (G:15.43% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.005...+0.022) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
2.Rollout113/8* 9/8eq: -0.024 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
51.43% (G:16.47% B:0.81%)
48.57% (G:15.65% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.037...-0.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79797981
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/21 13/8*.

I’ll hit 13/8* as the only decent 5 to play. I think using my spare on the 22 point to make the 21 point is the best ace. This could result in me getting hit again on my side of the board and having more checkers sent back but that isn’t tragic here, as my opponents have considerable work to do to block them. Of course my builders could also result in me continuing my attack.



USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 176
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-bb-F-DB--aB--aa-cbb---A:0:0:-1:54:1:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.Rollout124/15eq: +0.119
Player:
Opponent:
54.58% (G:17.30% B:0.78%)
45.42% (G:13.09% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.114...+0.124) - [97.6%]
Duration: 14 hours 27 minutes
2.xgRollout122/13eq: +0.112 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
54.13% (G:18.39% B:0.86%)
45.87% (G:13.27% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.108...+0.117) - [2.4%]
Duration: 13 hours 55 minutes
3.playedRollout122/18 13/8eq: +0.097 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
53.68% (G:18.33% B:0.82%)
46.32% (G:13.18% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.092...+0.102) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 18 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79797981
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/18 13/8.

This is not an easy play since I see 3 good candidates. I could play 24/15 with the idea that my blots help protect each other as I’ll usually get many return shots when hit. However, I think it is better to stay back on the 24 point and remain more flexible and also hope to pick up a blot if my opponents roll poorly and leave a blot on the 1 or 2 points.

Therefore, my 4 will be played 22/18 as I need to get my back checkers going. Now there are two good 5’s and I’ve spent much time trying to compare 18/13, remaking the mid point, with 13/8, making my 8 point and leaving the USBGF Members a rather poor 62 and 53.

13/8 adds another builder giving me 10 checkers in the zone, and it is possible for me to do more damage to their lone checker on the bar when it enters. 13/8 also allows me to make the 18 point often and get some outfield control.

18/13 remakes the mid point but how important is that when most of my opponents checkers have gone past it and their mid point is stripped making it difficult for them to spread builders to try to further block me. 18/13 will be better if they hit me with 63 or roll a 7 and decide to come out to my bar point.

This is very difficult but I have to choose and I will go with 13/8, adding to my offense and also allowing me to often make the 18 point soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ab-FaDB---B--ab-cbb---A:0:0:1:25:1:4:0:11:10
to play 25

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-17

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 180
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-c--F-DB--cB---bacbA----:0:0:1:32:1:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout121/18* 18/16eq: +0.379
Player:
Opponent:
54.39% (G:21.99% B:1.09%)
45.61% (G:10.27% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.365...+0.393) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 11 minutes
2.Rollout121/18* 6/4eq: +0.296 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
53.37% (G:19.01% B:0.93%)
46.63% (G:12.03% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.282...+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 32 minutes
3.Rollout121/18* 8/6eq: +0.214 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:
50.68% (G:20.15% B:1.08%)
49.32% (G:11.58% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.201...+0.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 28 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89969939
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 21/18*/16


Mary Hickey recommends: 21/18*/16

Again, we have to risk “giving him his backgame” because we have no other useful way to play this 32 other than 21/18*/16. All the non-hitting options leave more blots and shots, and so risk letting him win going forward because we’re still semi-trapped in his board. At least hitting him gets us out of his board, and if we can just manage to stay out, we may have something good going soon!


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 198
             
11 point match
              pip: 128
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-c--F-DB--cB--Ab-cb-----:0:0:-1:44:1:4:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/9* 8/4(2)eq: -0.065
Player:
Opponent:
50.92% (G:15.47% B:0.80%)
49.08% (G:16.16% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.077...-0.053) - [99.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/21 22/18 13/9*(2)eq: -0.089 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
51.10% (G:14.16% B:0.72%)
48.90% (G:17.57% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.102...-0.077) - [0.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 22/14 13/9*eq: -0.094 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
51.18% (G:13.66% B:0.69%)
48.82% (G:18.06% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.108...-0.081) - [0.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71117745
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 13/9* 8/4(2).

With this nice roll, I’ll hit 13/9*, and then I clearly prefer to make my 4 point with 8/4(2). My opponents have no extra homeboard points, so I can fiddle around with my back checkers later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 182
             
11 point match
              pip: 137
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-ca-F-DB--bB--a--cbb---A:0:0:1:62:1:4:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-16

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 168
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-b--E-EB--dB---b-cbaA---:0:0:1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout122/21* 8/6eq: +0.251
Player:
Opponent:
52.17% (G:18.93% B:1.08%)
47.83% (G:11.68% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.239...+0.264) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 48 minutes
2.Rollout122/21* 6/4eq: +0.218 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
52.34% (G:16.64% B:0.91%)
47.66% (G:12.62% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.205...+0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 03 minutes
3.Rollout122/21* 13/11eq: +0.099 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
48.87% (G:17.28% B:0.90%)
51.13% (G:12.80% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.086...+0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 01 minute
4.Rollout18/5eq: -0.050 (-0.301)
Player:
Opponent:
47.43% (G:13.52% B:0.68%)
52.57% (G:17.61% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.062...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 41 minutes
5.Rollout122/21* 9/7eq: -0.051 (-0.302)
Player:
Opponent:
46.22% (G:15.19% B:0.76%)
53.78% (G:15.22% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.064...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 39 minutes
6.Rollout19/7 8/7eq: -0.059 (-0.310)
Player:
Opponent:
46.69% (G:13.84% B:0.75%)
53.31% (G:16.81% B:0.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.071...-0.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89969939
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 22/21* 8/6
[ 1] 22/21* 6/4


Mary Hickey recommends: 22/21* 8/6

Again we have a decision where only one play works with our game plan. Hitting him 22/21* and then playing the safe, if ineffectual, 8/6 keeps us paddling in place while we wait for a chance to make a constructive move.

Sending the fourth man back may allow him to set up a backgame, but fear of that outcome shouldn’t lead us to look for something that takes too much risk of other bad outcomes. He doesn’t have the backgame yet, and even if he gets it, he hasn’t won it yet.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 189
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-b--F-DB--dB---b-cbA----:0:0:-1:63:1:4:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.395
Player:
Opponent:
44.13% (G:10.24% B:0.42%)
55.87% (G:19.87% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.408...-0.382) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 24/18eq: -0.465 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
41.72% (G:8.86% B:0.41%)
58.28% (G:18.19% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.477...-0.452) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89969939
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 13/7.

My slot didn’t work out, but I will continue along the same line playing a two way game with bar/22 13/7 while my opponents still have a one point board and are very stacked.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 180
             
11 point match
              pip: 133
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-c--F-DB--cB---bacbA----:0:0:1:32:1:4:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2017-02-15

[Previous][Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
             
11 point match
              pip: 147
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=---b--E-CB-adD---c-e---A--:0:0:1:51:1:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout123/22 13/8eq: +0.465
Player:
Opponent:
60.22% (G:12.51% B:0.54%)
39.78% (G:9.24% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.454...+0.476) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout123/18 6/5eq: +0.406 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
59.65% (G:10.82% B:0.45%)
40.35% (G:10.08% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.396...+0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout113/7eq: +0.398 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
58.34% (G:13.37% B:0.54%)
41.66% (G:9.77% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.387...+0.409) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
4.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: +0.385 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
58.36% (G:12.71% B:0.51%)
41.64% (G:10.28% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.373...+0.396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79647184
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 23/22 13/8
[ 7] 13/8 6/5
[ 1] 13/7


Mary Hickey recommends: 23/22 13/8

No need for anything fancy or forcing. We want to get home quietly past his anchor and win the race, so playing quietly with 23/22 13/8 makes sense. Our chances are good to make the 5 and 4 point in front of him, or make just one and then get through the first part of our bearoff without the other, without ever taking the risk of slotting. We have plenty of rolls ahead to try, so no need to get impatient now.



Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5 6/5
USBGF Members: 32 13/11*/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 171
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--b--E-EB--dB---b-db-A---:0:0:-1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.317
Player:
Opponent:
44.59% (G:11.46% B:0.54%)
55.41% (G:15.77% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.322...-0.312) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 26 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 13/11eq: -0.335 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
43.86% (G:11.67% B:0.53%)
56.14% (G:15.38% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.340...-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 30 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.373 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
42.64% (G:10.74% B:0.50%)
57.36% (G:14.33% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.384...-0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 29 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40749428
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40749428
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 6/4.

Now that I have an anchor, I think I can afford to play more aggressively. I want to maximize long term contact and enter on the 24 point and then 6/4 has considerably more potential than 13/11 and hopefully is worth the risk.
Note that the builder on the 11 point isn’t very strong when I have my 5 point as it isn’t a builder for my 5 point. When my 8 point is stripped I also cannot play 41 making a 4 prime. Additionally, the checker on my 4 point is also a builder for the 3 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 168
             
11 point match
              pip: 136
score: 1

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-b--E-EB--dB---b-cbaA---:0:0:1:21:1:4:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10