USBGF OLM 2019-10-07

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 174
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a--E-BAB-cB---d-db---BA:0:0:1:64:2:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 9/3* eq: -0.582
Player:
Opponent:
37.19% (G:9.36% B:0.44%)
62.81% (G:26.34% B:3.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.596...-0.568) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/15eq: -0.659 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
36.00% (G:8.29% B:0.40%)
64.00% (G:26.87% B:3.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.670...-0.648) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84819045
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] b/21 9/3*
[ 2] b/15


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 9/3*

If we go to the outfield with Bar/15, then we give Neil good 6’s and 3’s to hit us.

Sometimes the best defence, is offence, so let’s hit 9/3*. We may not be favourite, but we still need to fight to get back on top.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/21 9/3*

Hitting gains a tempo and leaves the checker on the 21 point where we want to establish an anchor. All other 6’s either remove the valuable checker from the 21 point or leave the initiative to Neil with ample opportunities to attack.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-A--E-B-B-cB---d-dbA--B-:0:0:-1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.06% (G:25.95% B:2.85%) 62.86% (G:26.39% B:3.26%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.94% (G:9.48% B:0.40%) 37.14% (G:9.42% B:0.40%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.460 +0.912
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.583±0.012 (+0.571..+0.595)
     Double/Take:+0.458 (-0.125)±0.019 (+0.439..+0.478)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.417)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84819045
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 52 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I’ve improved slightly since last turn, but don’t have close to an overwhelming position. While this would be a trivial take for them I might consider cubing at an even score. The key word is “might” so I definitely won’t cube here with a 2 point match lead. The problem is that I have two checkers back and if this turns around I don’t want to face a gammonish 4 cube with a clear match lead.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-A--E-B-B-cB---d-dbA--B-:0:0:-1:51:2:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 6/5eq: +0.421
Player:
Opponent:
60.14% (G:22.52% B:2.21%)
39.86% (G:11.53% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.408...+0.434) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 24/23eq: +0.372 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
59.41% (G:21.27% B:1.82%)
40.59% (G:11.79% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.359...+0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84819045
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 6/5.

I need to try for good points and to diversify so B/20 6/5 looks good.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-A-aE-B-B-cB---d-ccA--B-:0:0:1:43:2:4:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 10/18 330p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-10-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a--E-C-B-dC---c-db---B-:0:0:1:54:2:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/9 8/3* eq: -0.467
Player:
Opponent:
39.04% (G:11.29% B:0.55%)
60.96% (G:23.42% B:2.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.472...-0.461) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 10 minutes
2.xgRollout113/8 6/2eq: -0.483 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
38.25% (G:10.06% B:0.41%)
61.75% (G:21.23% B:1.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.488...-0.478) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 49 minutes
3.Rollout213/4eq: -0.499 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
37.86% (G:9.90% B:0.36%)
62.14% (G:21.25% B:1.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.512...-0.486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
4.Rollout213/9 6/1* eq: -0.549 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
36.91% (G:9.64% B:0.32%)
63.09% (G:23.16% B:2.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.562...-0.536) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
5.Rollout28/3* 6/2eq: -0.551 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
37.57% (G:9.79% B:0.53%)
62.43% (G:24.56% B:2.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.565...-0.536) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
6.Rollout210/1* eq: -0.584 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
35.88% (G:9.52% B:0.30%)
64.12% (G:22.25% B:1.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.596...-0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
7.Rollout28/4 6/1* eq: -0.601 (-0.135)
Player:
Opponent:
35.94% (G:9.31% B:0.30%)
64.06% (G:23.33% B:2.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.613...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
8.Rollout26/2 6/1* eq: -0.603 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent:
36.01% (G:9.31% B:0.31%)
63.99% (G:23.77% B:2.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.617...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
9.Rollout213/8 10/6eq: -0.615 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:
34.79% (G:9.06% B:0.37%)
65.21% (G:21.54% B:1.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.627...-0.603) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84819045
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84819045
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 13/9 8/3*
[ 6] 13/8 6/2
[ 4] 13/9 6/1*
[ 3] 10/1*
[ 1] 13/8 10/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 6/2

I am very unsure what to do here. I want to hit but Neil has the stronger board and we will be four pips up in the race (effectively, even in the race).

We are behind slightly in the match. I think I would just play 13/8 6/2. This is conservative and I could be wrong here.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/8 6/2

Being forced to leave a shot and without running or pointing option, hitting is normally best play, even at the cost of additional shots. Here 13/9 8/3* results in 21 shots which is considerably more than 11 shots after the recommended move. In addition the distribution would be poor with a stripped 8 point. Even if we won’t get hit we would be in trouble.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-A--E-BAB-dB---c-db---B-:0:0:-1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 61.00% (G:23.48% B:2.32%) 60.87% (G:23.81% B:2.59%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 39.00% (G:11.35% B:0.53%) 39.13% (G:11.38% B:0.58%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.369 +0.720
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.471±0.015 (+0.456..+0.486)
     Double/Take:+0.244 (-0.227)±0.019 (+0.225..+0.264)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.529)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 23.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84819045
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 46 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

No double especially with a match lead. I have only nine checkers in the zone so it isn’t common to lose my market by much. This can turn around quickly if I roll poorly.



Neil Kazaross: 53 b/22* 13/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 174
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a--E-BAB-cB---d-db---BA:0:0:1:64:2:4:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a--E-C-A-dD---cae----AA:0:0:1:31:2:4:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 13/10eq: -0.051
Player:
Opponent:
47.95% (G:13.58% B:0.54%)
52.05% (G:16.35% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.062...-0.040) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 6/3* eq: -0.138 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
45.95% (G:12.18% B:0.54%)
54.05% (G:16.73% B:1.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.150...-0.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21eq: -0.160 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
45.46% (G:11.63% B:0.45%)
54.54% (G:16.75% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.172...-0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32372117
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] b/24 13/10
[ 4] b/21
[ 4] b/24 6/3*


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/24 13/10

Neil’s blot and the fact that he has not established any point yet indicates making bold play. Making a point is better than hitting loose.



Neil Kazaross: 21 7/5 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 156
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a--E-C-B-dC---c-db---B-:0:0:1:54:2:4:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 50
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 53
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBACACA--------a---bbecb-:1:-1:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 72.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 72.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 27.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 27.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.456 +0.965
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.789 (-0.064)±0.002 (+0.787..+0.791)
played Redouble/Take:+0.853±0.002 (+0.851..+0.856)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.147)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32372117
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] Take
[ 5] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

I use the Ross Benjamin to get a 73% winning chances for Neil. In two weeks’ time my wife is away hiking with some other gals so at that time, I will do a video explaining how I do it quickly and I will use this position as an example.

Next, I do not know the live cube take point for this score but I know the dead cube take point is 26%. I know that the live cube take point is lower than the dead cube so if Neil wins 73% of the time, we must win 27% of the time so have a take for the dead cube and therefore a take for the live cube.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends:

This decision is clear! No gammons and only 3 pips down. It is only a double because of our inferior overall distribution and some more wastage through two additional checkers on the ace point. Of course we must be a little more careful because it is a redouble but this would only be a pass when it would be a close take at initial double.

We have 4 wastage pips on the ace point but Neil has one on the two point which totals in 3. I guess that the missing checkers on Neil’s 6 point and his ugly stack on his 4 point are worse than our bad distribution on or 5 and 6 point.

Our take point is only little higher than money game, since we can make use of all 4 points.



Neil Kazaross: 21 9/6
USBGF Members: 51 7/2 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 53 5/0 3/0
USBGF Members: 21 2/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 54 5/0 4/0
USBGF Members: 32 3/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 62 6/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 62 6/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 66 4/0 3/0(3)
USBGF Members: 33 6/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 21 2/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 41 4/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 21 2/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 64


Neil Kazaross wins four points and leads 7-away/9-away.



USBGF Members: 63 24/18 13/10

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---cAe----A-:0:0:-1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout124/22 13/7* eq: -0.076
Player:
Opponent:
49.25% (G:14.37% B:0.73%)
50.75% (G:14.31% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.088...-0.065) - [99.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 13/7* eq: -0.101 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
48.91% (G:14.57% B:1.03%)
51.09% (G:15.25% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.114...-0.089) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32372117
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 13/7*.

A good rule of thumb when hitting a 6 split is that if you hit with an ace, bring down a builder with it to unstack the midpoin and to add another cover for the bar since the 8 point is now stripped.

Conversely, when hitting a 6 split with a 6, you split the back checkers as the new builder is less necessary and an extra spare (fourth checker here) on the midoin can be needed if hitting and rehitting continues on your bar point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a--E-C-A-dD---cae----AA:0:0:1:31:2:4:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBABaBB--B----aa----becb-:1:-1:1:63:2:0:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout110/7 10/4eq: +0.244
Player:
Opponent:
68.09% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
31.91% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.240...+0.248) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds
2.Rollout17/4 7/1eq: +0.204 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
66.25% (G:0.50% B:0.00%)
33.75% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.201...+0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88230762
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 10/7 10/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 10/7 10/4

Great roll… we should just clear the 10 point with 10/7 10/4.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 10/7 10/4

Having three checkers on the highest point and no spares on the lower points is a terrible pattern for bearing in. But bearing in against an interrupted 4 point gap after 7/4 7/1 is worse.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 56
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBACaBC-------aa----becb-:1:-1:-1:55:2:0:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 20/5 10/5.

I make my 5 point with this joker so as to best be able to bear off a checker next turn to hopefully get to a position where I am unlikely to miss again and waste a turn.



USBGF Members: 21 7/6 7/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 50
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 53
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBACACA--------a---bbecb-:1:-1:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross redoubles to 4.


Today’s vote:

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sat 10/13 800p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-10-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 91
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 83
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BAABcCBB-B----------becb-:1:-1:1:61:2:0:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/7 8/2eq: +0.515
Player:
Opponent:
78.73% (G:2.24% B:0.02%)
21.27% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.512...+0.518) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 48 seconds
2.Rollout17/6 7/1eq: +0.481 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
77.36% (G:2.68% B:0.04%)
22.64% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.478...+0.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 01 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88230762
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[40] 8/7 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/7 8/2

We should not leave a shot so we should break out 8 point with 8/7 8/2 as 8/2 covers an inner board blot.”


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/7 8/2

No shot.



Neil Kazaross: 64 20/10
USBGF Members: 65 7/1 6/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBABbBB--B----a-----becb-:1:-1:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout120/9eq: -0.357
Player:
Opponent:
27.48% (G:0.70% B:0.01%)
72.52% (G:2.09% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.361...-0.354) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout120/14 10/5eq: -0.369 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
27.18% (G:0.69% B:0.01%)
72.82% (G:2.17% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.373...-0.366) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88230762
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/9.

I slightly prefer to not have a blot in my board in case I get a shot.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DBABaBB--B----aa----becb-:1:-1:1:63:2:0:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-10-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-BBcDBB-B------a-b-bcbb-:1:-1:1:51:2:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout16/1 3/2eq: +0.515
Player:
Opponent:
78.84% (G:1.53% B:0.03%)
21.16% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.512...+0.518) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout18/7 8/3eq: +0.496 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
78.10% (G:1.65% B:0.02%)
21.90% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.493...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 05 seconds
3.Rollout16/1 4/3eq: +0.493 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
78.09% (G:1.30% B:0.01%)
21.91% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.490...+0.497) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88230762
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 6/1 3/2
[ 9] 8/7 8/3
[ 3] 6/1 4/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1 3/2

Although we are ahead in the race, we would feel a lot happier if Neil’s board was weaker, and we can make some of his rolls weaken his board if we keep our blocking points in front of his anchor.

So we should play 6/1 then decide between 4/3 and 3/2. We want to keep at least two checkers on our 4 point as it is better for the bear off so we should play 3/2.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 83
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BAABcCBB-B------a-b-bcbb-:1:-1:-1:33:2:0:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/2 6/3(2)eq: -0.568
Player:
Opponent:
19.10% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
80.90% (G:2.06% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.571...-0.565) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 6/3(2) 4/1eq: -0.594 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
18.27% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
81.73% (G:2.56% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.597...-0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 88230762
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2 6/3(2).

8/2 6/3(2) retaining a 4 point board looks forced to me.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 91
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 83
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BAABcCBB-B----------becb-:1:-1:1:61:2:0:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 10/11 715p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-09-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBbDBC-B------b-d-bbb--:1:-1:1:61:2:0:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/1* eq: +0.489
Player:
Opponent:
76.77% (G:8.33% B:0.20%)
23.23% (G:3.18% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.485...+0.493) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout110/9 10/4eq: +0.458 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
74.35% (G:10.39% B:0.27%)
25.65% (G:2.87% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.454...+0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52057252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 8/1*
[ 3] 10/9 10/4
[ 1] 10/4 7/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/1*

“Our best assets are the blocking points in front of Neil’s anchor. We have to keep them. This means that we should hit 8/1*. Look at what happens if Neil hits us with 51, 31 or 21 – they all weaken his structure by either removing a builder or leaving an indirect return shot (with 51).


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/1*

Hitting on the ace opens four alternatives: Neil hits, enters on the 2 enters on the 5 or dances. 10/9 10/4 is more simple. Neil either hits or he hits not. In both plays we leave 11 shots. Since there are 25 rolls that do not hit, we should favour the play that leaves us in a better position when we do not get hit unless one play brings enormous advantage in case we get hit, what is not the case. We probably would like 8/1* more when Neil enters on the 5 and we would surely like it more, when he dances. After 10/9 10/4, Neil’s policeman will still be in place in 100% of the rolls. Since we have more than one roll to clear the 10 point and Neil might dance what would make the clearing of the 10 point pretty save even if we have to leave an indirect shot 8/1* might be the better play. I find it very hard to find the right play over the board. With only little time left on the clock, you better flip a coin.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aA-BBbDBB-B------b-d-bbb--:1:-1:-1:55:2:0:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 8/3 6/1(2)eq: -0.565
Player:
Opponent:
18.86% (G:0.25% B:0.01%)
81.14% (G:1.36% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.568...-0.562) - [99.5%]
Duration: 13 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20 8/3(2) 6/1eq: -0.571 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
18.60% (G:0.20% B:0.01%)
81.40% (G:1.39% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.574...-0.568) - [0.5%]
Duration: 12 minutes 29 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3843013
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 8/3 6/1(2).

B/20 8/3 6/1 are basically forced. Now for my final 5, I can make my ace point and be better if I hit something or play 8/3 and be a little better in the race. Since I am down 14 pips, I slightly prefer to make my ace point in case they blot at some point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-BBcDBB-B------a-b-bcbb-:1:-1:1:51:2:0:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BabDBE-B------b-dabab--:1:-1:1:22:2:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout18/4*(2) eq: +0.692
Player:
Opponent:
84.32% (G:6.45% B:0.16%)
15.68% (G:0.80% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.689...+0.695) - [100.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout110/4* 6/4eq: +0.656 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
82.16% (G:8.97% B:0.64%)
17.84% (G:1.68% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.652...+0.659) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 12 seconds
3.Rollout18/4* 6/4(2)eq: +0.652 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
82.85% (G:5.99% B:0.15%)
17.15% (G:0.98% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.649...+0.656) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout16/4*(2) 3/1(2)eq: +0.591 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
80.45% (G:6.21% B:0.12%)
19.55% (G:1.41% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.587...+0.595) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 51 seconds
5.Rollout110/8(2) 6/4*(2) eq: +0.559 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:
79.13% (G:6.66% B:0.12%)
20.87% (G:1.95% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.555...+0.562) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52057252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 8/4*(2)
[ 2] 10/4* 6/4
[ 1] 8/4* 6/4(2)
[ 1] 10/8(2) 6/4*(2)
[ 1] 10/6(2)


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/4*(2)

A very instructive position about distribution. 10/8(2) 6/4*(2) clears the 10 point but unless Neil will have to enter on our 5 point we will have awkward 4´s and 6´s to play next roll. In addition, the two blots in Neil’s homeboard indicate to take chances now rather than later. This consideration leads to 10/4* 6/4 which would have been my choice over the board. The problem with this play is bad distribution through the stack of checkers on our 8 point which might lead to problems later, after Neil has built his board. Distribution is probably the reason why, after we shift one checker from the 8 point to the 6 point, at ++ settings XG likes 10/4* 6/4 best, and after we shift to checkers from out 8 point to our 6 point, it clears the 10 point with 10/8(2) 6/4* (2).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--BBbDBC-B------b-dabab--:1:-1:-1:21:2:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 5/3eq: -0.691
Player:
Opponent:
16.19% (G:1.16% B:0.03%)
83.81% (G:8.33% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.695...-0.688) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.704 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
16.01% (G:1.16% B:0.02%)
83.99% (G:9.10% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.707...-0.701) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.715 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
15.68% (G:1.00% B:0.03%)
84.32% (G:8.81% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.717...-0.712) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52057252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 5/3.

While I’d like to make my 5 point, I think I need to enter on the 24 point for more contact and to give them a bad 54 now. Next I make my 3 point, cleaning up those blots and making a 4 point board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BBbDBC-B------b-d-bbb--:1:-1:1:61:2:0:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 124
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BabDBBaB--B---bAcabab--:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 71.33% (G:12.66% B:0.69%) 71.54% (G:13.25% B:0.69%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 28.67% (G:5.37% B:0.21%) 28.46% (G:5.62% B:0.23%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.505 +1.024
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.753 (-0.041)±0.008 (+0.745..+0.762)
played Double/Take:+0.794±0.011 (+0.783..+0.806)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.206)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52057252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] Double
[17] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We have a small lead in the race, but Neil has the better board in terms of points. We have a broken four prime and Neil does have those two inner board blots. We have pointing numbers but Neil has an anchor, so those pointing numbers count as threats but are weakened by his anchor. We have what Marc Olsen calls Freedom – our checkers are escaped.

I went back and forth on this one but finally decided to double. I have a tendency to double early so this could be wrong, but I know I would double this over the board.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: Double

Neil holds our five point, we are up only seven pips and we hold still the 13 point. This normally translates into no double. Here we shoot on two of Neil’s blots and even if Neil’s board is stronger than ours he has two additional blots in his homeboard. When we leave only an indirect shot next roll or when we hit both blots, we will have a double re-shot, if we get hit. So we will be in good shape if things go wrong and of course we may lose our market if things go well. Double, take.


Neil Kazaross takes.

A good double for them since my position is quite loose and they have many effective rolls that will have their position looking better next turn. They have some jokers and I can always dance on a three point board.

But I own their 5 point which is good insurance against quickly getting crushed and in spite of two blots in my board, it is a three point board and if I return hit somewhere and they dance, they’ll often be looking at a gammonish 4 cube.



USBGF Members: 55 18/8 13/8(2)


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BabDBEaB------b-cabab--:1:-1:-1:64:2:0:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout116/6eq: -0.568
Player:
Opponent:
20.63% (G:1.26% B:0.03%)
79.37% (G:6.10% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.570...-0.567) - [61.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
2.xgRollout116/10 8/4eq: -0.568 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
20.79% (G:1.47% B:0.03%)
79.21% (G:6.79% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.570...-0.567) - [38.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout216/10 6/2eq: -0.587 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
19.99% (G:1.27% B:0.03%)
80.01% (G:6.77% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.591...-0.583) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 31 seconds
4.Rollout216/12 8/2eq: -0.590 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
19.98% (G:1.33% B:0.03%)
80.02% (G:7.03% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.593...-0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 03 seconds
5.Rollout216/10 5/1eq: -0.593 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
19.73% (G:1.28% B:0.03%)
80.27% (G:6.80% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.597...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 36 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52057252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1316 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52057252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/6.

As I don’t care for the extra blots or to currently put a dilly builder on my 4 point, I slightly prefer 16/6 over 16/10 8/4. The building play does give me 5’s to make my 5 point, but I will likely be needing a 5 next roll, either to enter or to run from their 4 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 104
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BabDBE-B------b-dabab--:1:-1:1:22:2:0:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AabDBC---bC-A-b-d-bAb--:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout115/10 13/10eq: -0.071
Player:
Opponent:
51.19% (G:10.09% B:0.65%)
48.81% (G:17.11% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.080...-0.063) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
2.Rollout115/7eq: -0.245 (-0.174)
Player:
Opponent:
46.80% (G:8.09% B:0.39%)
53.20% (G:18.51% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.255...-0.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[46] 15/10 13/10
[ 2] 15/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 15/10 13/10

Notice how awkward Neil’s 6’s will be after we make the 10 point with 15/10 13/10. That’s all we need to see.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 15/10 13/10

Making a blocking point is better than just saving the blot with 13/7. This would apply as well if our checker on the 22 point would be already home. The point serves for blocking, as builder and as landing spot. This outweighs the problems we might have with clearing it later.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 133
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AabDBC-B-bB---b-d-bAb--:0:0:-1:43:2:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout120/16 6/3* eq: +0.018
Player:
Opponent:
47.90% (G:17.88% B:0.50%)
52.10% (G:14.18% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.007...+0.029) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.playedRollout113/9 6/3* eq: -0.008 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
47.02% (G:17.85% B:0.44%)
52.98% (G:12.02% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.020...+0.004) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
3.Rollout18/4 6/3* eq: -0.042 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
45.71% (G:16.12% B:0.33%)
54.29% (G:10.69% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.053...-0.031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52057252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9 6/3*.

6/3* is clear, but my 4 isn’t. 13/9 looks automatic but leaves many shots when the race is about even. If I lose outfield control, they may soon improve their blockade. The alternative is 20/16 which I’d play at DMP, but doesn’t seem 100% clear to me. Here I just fear their jokers if I break my anchor.



USBGF Members: 53 b/22* 8/3
Neil Kazaross: 61 b/24 9/3*
USBGF Members: 61 b/18


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 124
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-BabDBB-B-aB---bAc-bab--:0:0:-1:44:2:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout124/16 13/5eq: -0.789
Player:
Opponent:
28.39% (G:5.80% B:0.21%)
71.61% (G:13.28% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.801...-0.777) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout124/20 13/1eq: -0.817 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
26.51% (G:3.33% B:0.06%)
73.49% (G:7.54% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.827...-0.807) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout120/16(2) 13/5eq: -0.870 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
30.11% (G:8.37% B:0.32%)
69.89% (G:23.68% B:1.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.883...-0.858) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52057252
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/16 13/5.

After I play these 4’s, I am only 7 pips behind. As there is nothing clearly good to do with them I have to try to find the least bad play and hope that principles of good play can guide me.

First of all, I don’t want to be hit and I do want to try to make good points so that means 13/5 is clear. Next the choice is between 20/16(2) and 24/16. I don’t want to break an anchor that might be the only thing to save me from being closed out, and I do want to move out from the back into the outfield when the points they can hit from are stripped which gives me return shots if they break a point to hit me. This is a principle that often is missed.

Thus it is clear to me.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 131
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 124
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BabDBBaB--B---bAcabab--:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-bDBC---bC-a-d-e--Ba--:0:0:1:43:2:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout122/15* eq: +0.097
Player:
Opponent:
54.82% (G:9.09% B:0.36%)
45.18% (G:12.28% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.085...+0.108) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
2.Rollout18/4 6/3eq: -0.142 (-0.239)
Player:
Opponent:
47.42% (G:7.17% B:0.24%)
52.58% (G:9.68% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.151...-0.133) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 22/15*
[ 4] 8/4 6/3
[ 1] 7/4 7/3


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 22/15*

Hitting is the play to win, no matter how many blots we leave. Keeping the anchor is weaker since Neil has no developed board yet.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--A-bDBC---bC-A-d-e--Aa--:0:0:-1:44:2:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 8/4(2) 6/2eq: +0.104
Player:
Opponent:
49.77% (G:15.70% B:0.37%)
50.23% (G:7.54% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.094...+0.114) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 20/16(2) 6/2eq: -0.064 (-0.168)
Player:
Opponent:
47.49% (G:11.66% B:0.37%)
52.51% (G:13.13% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.073...-0.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 8/4(2) 6/2.

This gives me a 3 point board and some threats.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 139
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 141
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AabDBC---bC-A-b-d-bAb--:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bEBC---cC-a-d-e--A-A-:0:0:1:32:2:0:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout124/22 6/3eq: -0.238
Player:
Opponent:
44.99% (G:6.74% B:0.25%)
55.01% (G:10.09% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.250...-0.227) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout17/4 6/4eq: -0.273 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
44.69% (G:8.22% B:0.30%)
55.31% (G:14.00% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.287...-0.260) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
3.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: -0.297 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
44.53% (G:8.24% B:0.30%)
55.47% (G:15.29% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.310...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
4.Rollout124/22 13/10eq: -0.315 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
42.87% (G:7.44% B:0.28%)
57.13% (G:10.81% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.327...-0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
5.Rollout113/8eq: -0.326 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
43.66% (G:7.40% B:0.28%)
56.34% (G:14.41% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.338...-0.314) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
 
1 789 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 24/22 6/3
[ 4] 24/22 13/10
[ 1] 13/8
[ 1] 24/22 7/4
[ 1] 24/21 22/20
[ 1] 6/4 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 6/3

We need to use the 2 to grab the 22 point anchor.

If we moved a checker from our 6 point back to our 13 point then we should play 13/10 with the 3, but as it is 13/10 strips the 13 point so let’s just play 6/3.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/22 6/3

When the opponent has established an anchor we want to catch up by making our own anchor, even if it is only the 3 point. Staying split for better shot chances is no good. Neil’s attacking threats are too strong. Better to slot the 3 point than strip the midpoint.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-bDBC---cC-a-d-e--B---:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/2eq: +0.061
Player:
Opponent:
50.14% (G:9.94% B:0.30%)
49.86% (G:7.08% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.053...+0.070) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
2.Rollout18/2 6/1eq: +0.038 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
49.58% (G:10.15% B:0.23%)
50.42% (G:7.59% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.030...+0.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 10/4eq: +0.018 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
49.19% (G:9.37% B:0.31%)
50.81% (G:8.04% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.009...+0.027) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
4.Rollout110/5 8/2eq: +0.017 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
49.10% (G:9.72% B:0.33%)
50.90% (G:8.02% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.008...+0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/2.

To me, the least undesirable play here is 13/2 leaving only a 7 shot. I could play bigger and slot something but don’t want to further stack up nor dump a checker behind their anchor while slotting in front of it.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---A-bDBC---bC-a-d-e--Ba--:0:0:1:43:2:0:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 87
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-CBBBB-A------b--BcbAbcb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 79.04% (G:8.00% B:0.15%) 80.18% (G:7.63% B:0.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 20.96% (G:4.20% B:0.07%) 19.82% (G:4.72% B:0.18%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.621 +1.291
Cubeful Equities
     No redouble:+0.886 (-0.114)±0.004 (+0.882..+0.890)
     Redouble/Take:+1.190 (+0.190)±0.007 (+1.183..+1.197)
played Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] Redouble
[ 8] No Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Redouble

We can cash now or play on. Playing on will not will us that many Gammons so let’s take the sure two points.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: Redouble

Too good or not is he question. After a closeout, our gammon chances will be maybe 10%. We need a second checker on the bar for considerable gammon chances. Neil has to enter, roll badly, leave a shot and we have to hit. After he enters Neil may also roll well and either hit a shot and win through his strong 5 point board or simply win the race in which he is still ahead. Better cash out now.


Neil Kazaross passes.

While I have chances, it is too hard to fight a 5 prime board from the bar when I have no real containment. On a bad day I can also get gammoned.


USBGF Members win two points, and lead 9-away/11-away.



Neil Kazaross: 63 24/18 13/10
USBGF Members: 61 13/7* 8/7

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 165
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----EBB---dD-a-c-e----B-:0:0:-1:52:2:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 24/22eq: -0.157
Player:
Opponent:
45.74% (G:11.42% B:0.52%)
54.26% (G:16.35% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.162...-0.153) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 42 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/8eq: -0.178 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
44.98% (G:12.76% B:0.55%)
55.02% (G:17.46% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.183...-0.173) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 38 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/20 13/11eq: -0.189 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
44.95% (G:12.28% B:0.54%)
55.05% (G:17.43% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.200...-0.178) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/20 10/8eq: -0.192 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
45.08% (G:10.87% B:0.49%)
54.92% (G:16.33% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.203...-0.181) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 24/22.

I think I know this play and should try for an advanced anchor before more builders come to help them. I’ll play B/20 24/22. But let’s look at alternatives.

B/20 10/8 seems passive. B/20 13/11 creates lots of blots and may be too loose as I will usually be hit somewhere. B/23 13/8 doesn’t slot their 5 point and stacks on my 8 point duplicating numbers like the old play of bringing two down with an opening 53.



USBGF Members: 52 24/22 13/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---a-aEBC---dC-a-c-e--A-A-:0:0:-1:52:2:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout122/20 13/8eq: +0.039
Player:
Opponent:
49.72% (G:10.18% B:0.31%)
50.28% (G:8.00% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.030...+0.049) - [99.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout122/20 6/1* eq: +0.019 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
49.00% (G:10.89% B:0.28%)
51.00% (G:9.81% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.008...+0.029) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
3.Rollout122/20 8/3* eq: -0.034 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
47.67% (G:11.63% B:0.36%)
52.33% (G:10.95% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.045...-0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
4.Rollout122/20 10/5eq: -0.069 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
46.50% (G:11.14% B:0.31%)
53.50% (G:10.44% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.080...-0.059) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
5.Rollout18/3* 3/1* eq: -0.126 (-0.166)
Player:
Opponent:
46.06% (G:12.32% B:0.34%)
53.94% (G:14.81% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.136...-0.116) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/20 13/8.

My two must be played 22/20 grabbing their 5 point and preventing their stack of checkers on their 6 point from attacking me. Then the best 5 should be 13/8 as I still have a spare on my mid. I see no reason to yet hit loose deep in my board. I hope they roll poorly and I can then add a good forward point and establish some advantage.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bEBC---cC-a-d-e--A-A-:0:0:1:32:2:0:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 124
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACCaB-B----A-b-cBbb-bcA-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/8 4/2eq: -0.514
Player:
Opponent:
25.38% (G:3.49% B:0.11%)
74.62% (G:13.86% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.519...-0.510) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout113/6eq: -0.583 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
23.42% (G:3.36% B:0.10%)
76.58% (G:15.76% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.587...-0.578) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 3/1eq: -0.651 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:
21.49% (G:3.37% B:0.09%)
78.51% (G:18.33% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.656...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 48 seconds
4.Rollout118/13 4/2eq: -0.653 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:
25.73% (G:5.75% B:0.28%)
74.27% (G:30.35% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.658...-0.649) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 27 seconds
5.Rollout118/16 18/13eq: -0.688 (-0.174)
Player:
Opponent:
24.63% (G:4.44% B:0.18%)
75.37% (G:29.71% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.693...-0.684) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 59 seconds
6.Rollout18/6 8/3eq: -0.723 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:
22.55% (G:3.60% B:0.10%)
77.45% (G:27.76% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.728...-0.719) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 13/8 4/2
[ 4] 13/6
[ 3] 18/16 18/13
[ 1] 8/6 8/3
[ 1] 18/13 4/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 4/2

We are behind in the race by 26 pips before the roll. Racing is not a viable game plan, we need to hit one of Neil’s checkers and put on the bar. This is easier done if we are not on the bar and ourselves. We want to improve our board with 4/2 so that when we do eventually hit that checker we have more chance of keeping him on the bar.

If we play 18/13, it will be asked who ends up on the bar. We have to play 13/8 and await developments.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/8 4/2

4/2 makes a point. This offensive move is the best defence. No heroism as regards to the 5. The gammon is on and we should play 13/8.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 117
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBaB-C------b-cBbb-bcA-:1:1:-1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout18/6 2/1* eq: +0.349
Player:
Opponent:
65.64% (G:26.19% B:0.39%)
34.36% (G:9.81% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.344...+0.355) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout13/1* 2/1eq: +0.305 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
65.46% (G:21.88% B:0.19%)
34.54% (G:9.67% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.301...+0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout120/18 2/1* eq: +0.270 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
65.48% (G:19.06% B:0.33%)
34.52% (G:9.95% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.265...+0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 50 seconds
4.Rollout18/5eq: +0.243 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
63.50% (G:14.89% B:0.64%)
36.50% (G:5.16% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.238...+0.247) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/6 2/1*.

I can’t get to safety so I have to attack noting that gammons pay double.



USBGF Members: 42 b/21 8/6


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 112
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBaC-B------b-bBcbAbba-:1:1:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout18/4* 6/1eq: +0.738
Player:
Opponent:
74.90% (G:40.57% B:0.23%)
25.10% (G:9.21% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.734...+0.742) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout120/16 6/1eq: +0.668 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
79.41% (G:16.83% B:0.23%)
20.59% (G:2.74% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.665...+0.671) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout120/15 6/2eq: +0.350 (-0.388)
Player:
Opponent:
69.33% (G:12.06% B:0.24%)
30.67% (G:5.23% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.346...+0.354) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout120/11eq: +0.270 (-0.468)
Player:
Opponent:
67.23% (G:9.07% B:0.22%)
32.77% (G:4.91% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.265...+0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4* 6/1.

In general when there’s contact and you can win a gammon, you should be happy to put your opponent on the bar vs. a 5.5 point board. If this were DMP, I’d consider playing safe as I have good chances to get home after the safe play.



USBGF Members: 51 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCBaC-B------b-aBbbabbbA:1:1:-1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.Rollout120/15 4/1eq: +0.857
Player:
Opponent:
82.59% (G:28.90% B:0.13%)
17.41% (G:3.06% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.856...+0.859) - [60.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2.playedRollout120/15 8/5eq: +0.857 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
78.42% (G:41.54% B:0.26%)
21.58% (G:5.86% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.855...+0.858) - [39.3%]
Duration: 52 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/15 8/5.

This looks like a close decision to me, but I want that closeout. If I lift I still leave three shots and may be dodging jokers coming home as well as playing with an open 4 point. An important part of my decision is that if I lift, I play 4/1 and lose any mobility from that checker if I need a spare ace coming home. Playing big leaves me 23 closeout rolls if they dance.



USBGF Members: 31 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BCB-C-B-a----b--BbcabbbA:1:1:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout115/6eq: +1.044
Player:
Opponent:
83.10% (G:44.51% B:0.15%)
16.90% (G:1.23% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.041...+1.047) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout110/6 10/5eq: +0.814 (-0.230)
Player:
Opponent:
76.43% (G:41.11% B:0.17%)
23.57% (G:4.37% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.810...+0.817) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/6.

This is automatic, as it leaves one blot and gives me a 2 to cover.



USBGF Members: 41 b/21* 3/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 90
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-CBB-C-B------b--BccAbbb-:1:1:-1:53:0:0:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 5/2eq: +0.225
Player:
Opponent:
61.18% (G:18.49% B:0.31%)
38.82% (G:3.75% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.221...+0.229) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 05 seconds
2.xgRollout1Bar/20 6/3eq: +0.214 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
61.46% (G:16.45% B:0.28%)
38.54% (G:3.67% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.210...+0.218) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 86624656
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 5/2.

5/2 leaves my spares better positioned.



USBGF Members: 11 8/5* 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 43 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 87
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-CBBBB-A------b--BcbAbcb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABCaB-C----A-bbcBbb--c-A:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 8/3eq: -0.408
Player:
Opponent:
31.40% (G:7.08% B:0.20%)
68.60% (G:21.08% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.413...-0.402) - [99.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 56 seconds
2.xgRollout1Bar/24 13/8eq: -0.417 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
29.04% (G:4.68% B:0.14%)
70.96% (G:13.86% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.422...-0.412) - [1.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/24 18/13eq: -0.573 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:
28.39% (G:7.37% B:0.41%)
71.61% (G:29.82% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.578...-0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/24 8/3
[ 9] b/24 13/8
[ 1] b/24 18/13


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 8/3

We want to keep our checker back on the 13 point to make it harder for Neil to escape his rearmost checker.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/24 13/8

We would like to leave the checker on the 13 point since we are down in the race and want to contain Neil´s last checker.

Alternative 5´s to the recommended play are 18/13 or 8/3. The first alternative leaves a triple shot with return shots and more gammons on both sides. Not a bad idea to go for the volatile solution when you are down in the race or in other trouble. But here, Neil’s attack with 14 builders is overwhelming and it is in addition too gammonish.

The latter alternative buries a checker and in exchange of keeping up the outfield control what is exactly what we want. Since we have already a strong board and only the 5 point is missing, the outfield control might prevail the number of builders we have in order to build high points. But 8/3 leaves six shots for Neil with considerable gammon chances which would make me opt for 13/8.



Neil Kazaross: 33 9/3(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 98
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 124
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ACCaB-B----A-b-cBbb-bcA-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--A-CaB-C----C-bccBbbA-b--:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout113/3(2)eq: -0.552
Player:
Opponent:
27.82% (G:4.76% B:0.16%)
72.18% (G:23.97% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.558...-0.547) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout113/8(2) 13/3eq: -0.635 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
22.68% (G:2.24% B:0.09%)
77.32% (G:17.79% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.639...-0.630) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 38 seconds
3.Rollout118/8(2)eq: -0.714 (-0.162)
Player:
Opponent:
23.48% (G:4.24% B:0.17%)
76.52% (G:29.96% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.720...-0.709) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 17 seconds
4.Rollout118/13 18/3eq: -0.724 (-0.171)
Player:
Opponent:
24.49% (G:5.56% B:0.22%)
75.51% (G:34.26% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.729...-0.718) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 47 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 13/3(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

My first thoughts are we need to keep the 18 point so we can escape with a 3. After the roll we will only be behind in the race by 9 pips. We need to keep our board as strong as possible and we need to retain our 8 point for blocking and potential attacking. That really only leaves 13/3(2). This risks six shots at the blot on our midpoint, but it is the best we can do.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABCaB-C----A-bccBbbA-b--:1:1:-1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout19/4* 4/2eq: +0.418
Player:
Opponent:
68.46% (G:21.88% B:0.80%)
31.54% (G:6.67% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.413...+0.424) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout120/15 8/6eq: +0.402 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
69.29% (G:16.39% B:0.85%)
30.71% (G:4.96% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.397...+0.407) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout19/4* 8/6eq: +0.341 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
64.60% (G:27.11% B:0.98%)
35.40% (G:9.91% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.334...+0.348) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/4*/2.

I don’t think hitting loose is correct, so the choice is between hit and lift or coming out and 8/6 duping 3’s. My race lead isn’t huge and I get more gammons by hitting. My array of checkers on my outside points remains after I hit and lift so I will go with that.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 130
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--ABCaB-C----A-bbcBbb--c-A:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-C-BAC----C-bccBcb--a-A:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 7/2* eq: -0.436
Player:
Opponent:
31.65% (G:6.07% B:0.23%)
68.35% (G:24.41% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.443...-0.430) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: -0.483 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
31.19% (G:5.84% B:0.23%)
68.81% (G:27.50% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.490...-0.477) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] b/21 7/2*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 7/2*

As we are leaving a shot whatever we do and Neil has an inner board blot, we should play 7/2*.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-A-C-B-C----C-bccBcbA-a--:1:1:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 6/2eq: +0.506
Player:
Opponent:
72.58% (G:19.55% B:0.67%)
27.42% (G:4.60% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.501...+0.512) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20 9/5eq: +0.466 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
70.76% (G:20.97% B:0.70%)
29.24% (G:5.52% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.460...+0.472) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/16eq: +0.457 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
72.04% (G:16.11% B:0.77%)
27.96% (G:4.99% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.451...+0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 6/2.

My plan of hitting loose has worked well. Their back checker is in severe danger if they can’t rescue it with a 3.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 117
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--A-CaB-C----C-bccBbbA-b--:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=----B-BaD--A-C-bcc-db-BA--:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout122/18(2) 13/9 11/7* eq: -0.185
Player:
Opponent:
39.20% (G:7.00% B:0.29%)
60.80% (G:19.41% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.192...-0.177) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
2.playedRollout122/18(2) 11/7* 8/4eq: -0.256 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
35.76% (G:6.37% B:0.20%)
64.24% (G:17.43% B:0.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.263...-0.249) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
3.Rollout122/18 13/9(2) 11/7* eq: -0.275 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
37.96% (G:8.35% B:0.41%)
62.04% (G:24.85% B:2.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.284...-0.266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
4.Rollout122/14 13/9 11/7* eq: -0.283 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
37.50% (G:7.67% B:0.38%)
62.50% (G:24.16% B:1.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.291...-0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
5.Rollout113/9(3) 11/7* eq: -0.292 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:
34.68% (G:7.39% B:0.32%)
65.32% (G:18.30% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.300...-0.284) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 22/18(2) 11/7* 8/4
[13] 22/18(2) 13/9 11/7*
[ 3] 13/9(3) 11/7*
[ 1] 13/9(2) 11/7* 8/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

We have to hit 11/7* then make the bar point with 22/18(2).

The last 4 is really interesting. My gut instinct is 8/4 but it just looks terrible. 13/9 is the big play which seems to give us the best chance of winning. We cannot be doubled out, so I think we need to go for it here and make the big play.

If we are not hit, we will have decent outfield control and should be able to make more points quickly. 13/9 is the play that if it works, I can see us being able to possibly win this game. 8/4 look awkward.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---C-BAC----C-bccBdb--A--:1:1:-1:42:0:0:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 6/2* eq: +0.139
Player:
Opponent:
58.83% (G:20.87% B:0.80%)
41.17% (G:8.21% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.131...+0.147) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 9/5eq: +0.119 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
58.59% (G:18.14% B:0.71%)
41.41% (G:7.06% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.112...+0.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 6/2*.

The two reasonable 4’s are 9/5 and 6/2*. I prefer the attacking play since I have 14 checkers in the attack zone and could easily develop gammonish threats if they respond poorly.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-C-BAC----C-bccBcb--a-A:1:1:1:45:0:0:0:11:10
to play 45

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 177
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----D-D----Daacc-db-B--A:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2)eq: -0.308
Player:
Opponent:
36.05% (G:6.70% B:0.33%)
63.95% (G:23.41% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.316...-0.301) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/4 6/4eq: -0.334 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
34.78% (G:6.23% B:0.29%)
65.22% (G:22.50% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.342...-0.326) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] b/23 13/11 6/4(2)
[ 9] b/23 8/4 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 13/11 6/4(2)

The first two 2’s are easy: 6/4(2). If we play 13/11 then it is harder for Neil to escape his rearmost checker. This is a frequent theme when your opponent has only one checker back.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/23 13/11 6/4(2)

6/4(2) is obvious. If we were not down in the race with three against one checker behind, 8/6 would be the last 2, avoiding a stripped 6 point and the risk of getting hit. The risk of getting hit does not count too much since we are down anyway and could luckily install a backgame. Still, we do not want to get hit due to the gammon risk. The crucial point here is that we wish to contain Neil´s last checker and we will have a double or triple shot if he escapes into our outfield. Bar/21 only provides Neil with a target and will cost us probably a tempo without sufficient pay-off if he cannot make the point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-B-D--A-Caacc-db-BA--:1:1:-1:61:0:0:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout124/18 11/10eq: +0.248
Player:
Opponent:
63.22% (G:19.65% B:0.90%)
36.78% (G:7.24% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.240...+0.256) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.Rollout111/10 8/2* eq: +0.179 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
60.08% (G:22.03% B:1.07%)
39.92% (G:8.56% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.171...+0.187) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/18 11/10.

A poor roll for me, as I cannot make a good point. Any 6 other than 24/18 doesn’t help my game. But 24/18 steps into 29 shots. However, seven rolls miss.

After 24/18, I have a nice ace with 11/10 cleaning up and leaving only one blot. I will now have five points of a broken 6 prime and retain builders to improve.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 169
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=----B-BaD--A-C-bcc-db-BA--:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 177
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----D-D-a-cD-a-c-db-B--A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.71% (G:19.61% B:0.76%) 69.73% (G:20.06% B:0.79%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.29% (G:5.25% B:0.20%) 30.27% (G:5.39% B:0.22%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.546 +1.117
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.861 (-0.012)±0.005 (+0.856..+0.866)
played Double/Take:+0.873±0.006 (+0.867..+0.878)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.127)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 hours 39 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] Take
[12] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

Neil has Race, a slightly better position and threats to make new points or escape his checker on the 15 point. We also have a checker on the bar but we have our 22 point anchor and Neil as yet only has one additional inner board point. Also, the 21 point is not made and gaps in front of anchors can be treacherous. A good double but we need to take this and fight it out.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

This looks like a strong double as I lead in all departments and have many rolls to further improve.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 177
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----D-D-a-cD-a-c-db-B--A:1:1:-1:44:0:0:0:11:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout18/4(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0.477
Player:
Opponent:
69.44% (G:25.14% B:0.86%)
30.56% (G:5.22% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.474...+0.479) - [97.8%]
Duration: 7 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 15/11 8/4(2)eq: +0.472 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
69.64% (G:24.34% B:0.95%)
30.36% (G:5.28% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.470...+0.475) - [2.2%]
Duration: 8 hours 21 minutes
3.Rollout115/11 8/4(3)eq: +0.464 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
69.38% (G:24.01% B:0.77%)
30.62% (G:4.99% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.461...+0.467) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 48 minutes
4.playedRollout115/11 13/9(3)eq: +0.456 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
69.25% (G:23.68% B:0.93%)
30.75% (G:5.29% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.453...+0.459) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 23 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/11 13/9(3).

This 44 is a nice roll, but it isn’t easy for me to play. I see four possible plays, one of which seems a bit inferior to at least one other alternative.

I can make my 4 point and this can’t be wrong by much if at all. Now at Gammon Go, my play would be instant and I’d make the 2 point as well. But here this could lead to some troubles if they enter well and I cannot clean up or my checker gets stuck back. One thing to remember about Gammon Go is you have no cost of losing a gammon.

After making my 4 point, I can play 15/11 putting that checker in a safe decent spot. Now I could lift 8/4 but I slightly prefer stepping up 24/20 risking some counterattack but really being strong if I get away with it, while having more blocking potential.

The fourth play is a different plan based upon trying to make a prime: 15/11 13/9(3). This nicely blocks their anchor on my 3 point and gives me a lovely array of builders to make a prime soon. However, a lovely array of builders isn’t the same as made points. I will be left with the obligation to make a point next time and then maybe they can develop some play vs. my back checker, noting that the will usually enter my 2 point board. However, this play looks pretty to my eyes.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 177
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----D-D----Daacc-db-B--A:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---cD-a-c-db-A-A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/22 6/5eq: -0.361
Player:
Opponent:
41.31% (G:10.04% B:0.36%)
58.69% (G:15.28% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.371...-0.350) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 8/7eq: -0.423 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
39.58% (G:9.63% B:0.35%)
60.42% (G:15.23% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.436...-0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.552 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
38.14% (G:10.18% B:0.56%)
61.86% (G:23.68% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.563...-0.541) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
4.Rollout113/10eq: -0.573 (-0.212)
Player:
Opponent:
37.65% (G:9.72% B:0.53%)
62.35% (G:22.91% B:1.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.585...-0.561) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes
5.Rollout122/21 13/11eq: -0.610 (-0.249)
Player:
Opponent:
37.19% (G:9.84% B:0.63%)
62.81% (G:24.49% B:1.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.620...-0.599) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
6.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.610 (-0.249)
Player:
Opponent:
37.63% (G:9.59% B:0.54%)
62.37% (G:26.58% B:2.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.622...-0.598) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 24/22 6/5
[ 2] 22/21 13/11
[ 1] 24/23 13/11
[ 1] 13/11 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 6/5

We really want to anchor with 24/22. Neil has 10 checkers in the zone with a spare on his 8 point so he can attack or make a point with that checker and not leave a blot. If we play 24/22 then we have to play either 8/7 or 6/5. 6/5 leaves fewer shots and starts a better point, so let’s take a deep breath and hope Neil rolls 55.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/22 6/5

24/22 is obvious. Compared to 7/5, 6/5 slots the much better point and leaves fewest shots. It is most important to establish a first additional homeboard point. The downside is that we will have some bad 6´s and 5´s to play if Neil fails to hit, but by the merits of the 5 point trump.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---AD-D---cD-a-c-db-B---:0:0:-1:54:0:0:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20* 20/15eq: +0.638
Player:
Opponent:
64.36% (G:18.92% B:0.84%)
35.64% (G:7.67% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.626...+0.650) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
2.Rollout124/20* 10/5eq: +0.547 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
62.00% (G:19.31% B:0.82%)
38.00% (G:7.81% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.536...+0.559) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
3.Rollout124/20* 13/8eq: +0.521 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent:
61.37% (G:19.46% B:0.80%)
38.63% (G:8.39% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.510...+0.533) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20*/15.

Their forward position is the same as if they slotted an opening 51. After that I am supposed to play 13/8 after hitting.

Here I see three differences in favor of 20/15. 1) Their 55 and 53 can’t hit me. 2) I don’t want to strip my midpoint. 3) This adds a builder for my 9 point and also leaves me very well diversified.

If they roll poorly I can consider cubing.



USBGF Members: 66 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 177
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----D-D-a-cD-a-c-db-B--A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-09-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout124/22 13/8eq: -0.235
Player:
Opponent:
45.02% (G:11.74% B:0.59%)
54.98% (G:17.89% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.246...-0.223) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.264 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
44.60% (G:12.74% B:0.79%)
55.40% (G:19.11% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.276...-0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 6/4eq: -0.269 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
44.48% (G:12.22% B:0.65%)
55.52% (G:18.91% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.283...-0.255) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/22 13/8
[15] 13/11 13/8
[ 2] 13/8 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

It is really import ant to know the second roll replies, and to know them by memory. It is equally important to understand why the correct move is correct.

The 5 should be played 13/8. With the 2 we should split 24/22. This challenges Neil’s checker on his 9 point. There is some duplication here as 65 already makes a good point with 10/4 9/4 but now it makes a point on our head with 9/3* 8/3. 53 is also duplicated as it could make the 5 point if we had not split with 10/5 8/5 but now 8/3* 6/3 makes the 3 point on our head. If we give our opponent rolls that are already good for them, the damage those new good rolls do is lessened. This makes the split more acceptable.



Neil Kazaross: 41 9/5 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---cD-a-c-db-A-A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-14

[Previous] [Next]

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:43:0:0:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.011
Player:
Opponent:
49.85% (G:15.71% B:0.78%)
50.15% (G:14.11% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.006...+0.016) - [74.7%]
Duration: 17 hours 42 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/9eq: +0.009 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
50.03% (G:14.41% B:0.71%)
49.97% (G:13.72% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.004...+0.014) - [25.2%]
Duration: 18 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 13/10eq: +0.002 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
49.93% (G:13.96% B:0.72%)
50.07% (G:13.78% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.003...+0.007) - [0.1%]
Duration: 18 hours 31 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80892453
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 13/9.

I usually play two down at normal scores.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 0
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 11
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 39
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCA---------------acb-:1:-1:1:42:6:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout16/Offeq: -0.991
Player:
Opponent:
0.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.991...-0.991) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.4 second
2.Rollout14/Off 3/1eq: -0.994 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
0.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.994...-0.994) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.4 second
3.Rollout14/2 4/Offeq: -0.994 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
0.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.994...-0.994) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.4 second
4.Rollout15/3 4/Offeq: -0.995 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
0.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.995...-0.995) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.5 second
 
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5611718
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[35] 6/0
[ 4] 4/0 3/1
[ 3] 4/0 4/2
[ 1] 5/3 4/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/0

First we should play 4/off. Once we do that, we have only six checkers remaining so we could win here. We will only win if we roll a large double so the two should be 6/4. This is equivalent to 6/off but that shows the thought process over the board.



Neil Kazaross: 54 3/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 32


Neil Kazaross wins two points and wins the match.


USBGF OLM 2019-09-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 47
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 75
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ADDF------------db-cb--:1:-1:1:61:6:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout16/5 6/Offeq: -0.894
Player:
Opponent:
5.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.894...-0.894) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds
2.playedRollout16/Off 4/3eq: -0.894 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
5.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.894...-0.894) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout16/Off 3/2eq: -0.896 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
5.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.896...-0.896) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5611718
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 6/0 4/3
[12] 6/5 6/0
[ 2] 6/0 3/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/0 6/5

After we take a checker off with 6/off, do we play 4/3 or 6/5? The conventional wisdom is that we want to even the number of checkers on the 4, 5 and 6 point as long as there is one checker on the 3 point. So here that means 6/5 but either 6/5 or 4/3 would be fine.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 6/0 4/3

Now that all checkers are in our home board we can start filling the lower points if we cannot bear off, trying to maintain the best no wastage position with descending number of checkers from the 6 point to the lower points.



Neil Kazaross: 54 6/2 5/0
USBGF Members: 64 6/0 4/0
Neil Kazaross: 53 5/0 3/0
USBGF Members: 65 6/0 5/0
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/1 6/0
USBGF Members: 62 6/4 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 54 6/1 3/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 11
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 39
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BCCA---------------acb-:1:-1:1:42:6:9:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACDF-A----------eaacb--:1:-1:1:31:6:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.905
Player:
Opponent:
4.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.905...-0.905) - [100.0%]
Duration: 56.1 seconds
2.playedRollout18/4eq: -0.905 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
4.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.905...-0.905) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.1 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 3/2eq: -0.906 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
4.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.906...-0.906) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53.5 seconds
4.Rollout18/5 4/3eq: -0.906 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
4.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.906...-0.906) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50.9 seconds
5.Rollout16/2eq: -0.911 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
4.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.911...-0.911) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5.4 seconds
6.Rollout18/7 6/3eq: -0.911 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
4.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.911...-0.911) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5.1 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83631478
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 8/4
[ 5] 8/5 4/3
[ 3] 8/5 6/5
[ 3] 8/5 3/2
[ 1] 6/2
[ 1] 8/7 6/3


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 8/4

31 is a bad number and the best we can do is place one checker on the 4 point. In this position the 4 point is our biggest problem since there are not enough checkers and we risk burying checkers and wasting pips if we roll too many 4’s before we clear the 5 point and the 6 point. Filling the lower points is not important yet.



Neil Kazaross: 41 6/5 4/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 47
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 75
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ADDF------------db-cb--:1:-1:1:61:6:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 9/13 345p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-09-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 100
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACBE-A--A-Bba-a-cbbbb--:1:-1:1:53:6:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout113/5eq: -0.391
Player:
Opponent:
30.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.391...-0.391) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
2.Rollout111/6 8/5eq: -0.393 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
30.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.393...-0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds
3.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.393 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
30.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.393...-0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 11/6eq: -0.394 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
30.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.394...-0.394) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds
5.Rollout113/10 8/3eq: -0.398 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
30.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.398...-0.397) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
6.Rollout113/8 11/8eq: -0.403 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
29.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
70.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.403...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
7.Rollout111/3eq: -0.404 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
29.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
70.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.404...-0.404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds
8.Rollout113/8 6/3eq: -0.404 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
29.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
70.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.404...-0.404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98979084
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 13/5
[15] 13/10 13/8
[ 9] 11/6 8/5
[ 2] 13/10 11/6
[ 1] 13/8 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/5

We want to move at least one checker from the midpoint. We also want to avoid putting two checkers on the same outfield point so we should avoid playing 13/10 13/8.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/5

Two crossovers and best distribution.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACCE-A--A-Aba-a-cbbbb--:1:-1:-1:44:6:9:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout111/3 10/6 8/4eq: +0.670
Player:
Opponent:
83.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
16.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.670...+0.670) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45.0 seconds
2.Rollout111/7(2) 10/6 8/4eq: +0.667 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
83.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
16.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.667...+0.667) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46.6 seconds
3.Rollout111/7 11/3 8/4eq: +0.663 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
83.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
16.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.663...+0.663) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.5 seconds
4.Rollout111/7 11/3 10/6eq: +0.660 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
83.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
16.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.660...+0.660) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.3 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98979084
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/3 10/6 8/4.

I’ll make three crossovers and hope to bear off a checker next roll.



USBGF Members: 62 11/5 8/6
Neil Kazaross: 54 11/6 4/0
USBGF Members: 41 13/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACDF-A----------ebbcb--:1:-1:-1:54:6:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout15/Off 4/Offeq: +0.829
Player:
Opponent:
91.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.829...+0.829) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second
2.Rollout16/1 4/Offeq: +0.827 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
91.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
8.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.827...+0.827) - [0.0%]
Duration: 0.3 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98979084
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 5/0 4/0.

It is almost never wrong to take checkers of the 4 or 5 points. I’ll worry about gaps later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 52
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 79
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACDF-A----------eaacb--:1:-1:1:31:6:9:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 93
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACBE-----bDaa---cbbbb--:1:-1:1:52:6:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.411
Player:
Opponent:
29.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
70.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.412...-0.411) - [100.0%]
Duration: 50.3 seconds
2.Rollout113/6eq: -0.414 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
29.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
70.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.414...-0.414) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98979084
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/6
[ 7] 13/11 13/8
[ 2] 6/1 3/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11 13/8

I like two down but would not argue with a doubles partner that wanted 13/6.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/11 13/8

Flexible distribution for bear in as described last move. 13/6 overstacks the 6 point.



Neil Kazaross: 52 13/11 13/8


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 86
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 100
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACBE-A--A-Bba-a-cbbbb--:1:-1:1:53:6:9:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-09-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 114
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACBD--b--bE-b---babbb--:1:-1:1:43:6:9:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout113/6eq: +0.090
Player:
Opponent:
54.35% (G:0.20% B:0.01%)
45.65% (G:0.21% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.088...+0.092) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: +0.063 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
52.92% (G:0.28% B:0.01%)
47.08% (G:0.30% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.061...+0.064) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98979084
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 13/6
[ 5] 6/3 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/6

I like coming down to four checkers on the midpoint so that we can clear it with 22, 33, 55 or 66. This is only four rolls but the chance to roll any of those rolls will occur for many rolls so the total chance of clearing the midpoint will be bigger.”


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/6

Leaving a direct shot makes no sense, so 6/3 6/2 is the only alternative play. But what is so bad about making a point — we might get a shot later and then we will be happy about any additional point. This is true but it will only become effective after we hit a shot. Due to the position we will not get a shot very often and due to our racing lead our main winning plan is the race. Thus a small improvement in the racing plan counts much more that a considerable improvement in the containment plan.

Even though the pipcount remains the same the suggested move enhances our running chances for three reasons:

  1. After the suggested move we will have only four checkers on the 13 point, so that we will be able to clear it with doubles.
  2. By playing 6/3 6/2 we are liable to bearing off later and to wasting pips in the future. For best racing chances we must bear in only on the 6, 5 and four point, with most checkers on the 6, medium number of Checkers on the 5 and fewest number of checkers on the 4 point. By playing like that we can bear off at the earliest moment and have least wastage.
  3. We might roll 41, 44, 11 or any roll smaller than 5 which we then have to play inside our board what would again lead to a bad distribution and later beginning of our bear off.

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACBE--b--bD-b---babbb--:1:-1:-1:55:6:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout116/11 16/6 10/5eq: +0.365
Player:
Opponent:
68.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.364...+0.365) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout116/6(2)eq: +0.362 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
68.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.362...+0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
3.Rollout116/11(2) 13/8(2)eq: +0.362 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
68.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.362...+0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 50 seconds
4.Rollout116/11(2) 10/5(2)eq: +0.361 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
68.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.361...+0.361) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98979084
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/11 16/6 10/5.

This play is smooth and flexible.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 93
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 6

is USBGF Members
XGID=---ACBE-----bDaa---cbbbb--:1:-1:1:52:6:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10