USBGF OLM 2018-09-19

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBAA---A--bcb-cAb-c--:0:0:1:11:3:6:0:11:10
to play 11

1.Rollout112/11 8/6 5/4eq: -0.390
Player:
Opponent:
36.85% (G:2.09% B:0.03%)
63.15% (G:1.56% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.397...-0.383) - [17.6%]
Duration: 22 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 7/6eq: -0.390 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
36.75% (G:2.12% B:0.04%)
63.25% (G:1.46% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.396...-0.384) - [15.6%]
Duration: 18 minutes 36 seconds
3.Rollout18/4eq: -0.390 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
36.75% (G:2.21% B:0.04%)
63.25% (G:1.66% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.396...-0.384) - [14.7%]
Duration: 11 minutes 46 seconds
4.Rollout112/9 7/6eq: -0.391 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
36.69% (G:2.10% B:0.04%)
63.31% (G:1.38% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.398...-0.384) - [10.2%]
Duration: 20 minutes 09 seconds
5.playedRollout112/9 8/7eq: -0.391 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
36.84% (G:2.25% B:0.04%)
63.16% (G:1.53% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.397...-0.385) - [9.1%]
Duration: 24 minutes 09 seconds
6.Rollout112/11 7/4eq: -0.391 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
36.62% (G:2.19% B:0.03%)
63.38% (G:1.61% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.398...-0.385) - [9.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 22 seconds
7.Rollout112/10 8/6eq: -0.392 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
36.78% (G:2.11% B:0.04%)
63.22% (G:1.45% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.398...-0.385) - [6.1%]
Duration: 15 minutes 50 seconds
8.Rollout18/6 7/6 5/4eq: -0.392 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
36.57% (G:2.15% B:0.04%)
63.43% (G:1.50% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.399...-0.385) - [6.4%]
Duration: 18 minutes 36 seconds
9.Rollout112/11 8/6 7/6eq: -0.392 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
36.66% (G:2.19% B:0.04%)
63.34% (G:1.35% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.399...-0.385) - [6.2%]
Duration: 23 minutes 04 seconds
10.Rollout112/10 7/6 5/4eq: -0.393 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
36.70% (G:2.11% B:0.04%)
63.30% (G:1.50% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.400...-0.386) - [3.5%]
Duration: 11 minutes 54 seconds
11.Rollout112/10 8/7 5/4eq: -0.394 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
36.76% (G:2.17% B:0.04%)
63.24% (G:1.61% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.400...-0.388) - [1.3%]
Duration: 17 minutes 15 seconds
12.Rollout112/10 7/5eq: -0.397 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
36.58% (G:2.06% B:0.03%)
63.42% (G:1.55% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.403...-0.391) - [0.1%]
Duration: 15 minutes 34 seconds
13.Rollout112/11 8/5eq: -0.398 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
36.56% (G:2.13% B:0.04%)
63.44% (G:1.64% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.405...-0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 20 seconds
14.Rollout112/9 5/4eq: -0.399 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
36.46% (G:2.19% B:0.04%)
63.54% (G:1.67% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.406...-0.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 23 seconds
15.Rollout112/8eq: -0.400 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
36.33% (G:2.12% B:0.03%)
63.67% (G:1.59% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.406...-0.394) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 11 seconds
16.Rollout17/3eq: -0.405 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
36.31% (G:2.05% B:0.04%)
63.69% (G:1.75% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.411...-0.399) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 27 seconds
17.Rollout112/11 7/6 5/3eq: -0.406 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
36.32% (G:2.08% B:0.04%)
63.68% (G:1.62% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.413...-0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 41 seconds
18.Rollout17/4 5/4eq: -0.406 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
36.26% (G:1.96% B:0.04%)
63.74% (G:1.78% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.413...-0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 42 seconds
19.Rollout18/6 5/3eq: -0.409 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
36.28% (G:2.10% B:0.04%)
63.72% (G:1.72% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.415...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 00 second
20.Rollout112/10 5/3eq: -0.409 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
36.23% (G:2.06% B:0.03%)
63.77% (G:1.74% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.415...-0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 24 seconds
21.Rollout112/11 8/7 5/3eq: -0.409 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
36.27% (G:2.04% B:0.03%)
63.73% (G:1.81% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.416...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 22 seconds
22.Rollout15/1eq: -0.410 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
36.28% (G:2.33% B:0.04%)
63.72% (G:2.22% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.417...-0.404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 00 second
23.Rollout17/6 5/2eq: -0.411 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
36.07% (G:2.12% B:0.04%)
63.93% (G:1.84% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.417...-0.404) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 59 seconds
24.Rollout18/7 5/2eq: -0.414 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
36.07% (G:2.01% B:0.04%)
63.93% (G:1.94% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.420...-0.408) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 12/9 8/7
[ 8] 12/11 8/6 7/6
[ 1] 12/9 7/6
[ 1] 12/10 8/6
[ 1] 12/11 8/6 5/4
[ 1] 8/7 5/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 12/11 8/6 7/6

After the roll we will be ahead by 12 pips, so we should be trying for a racing game plan. This means we should get 2 checkers into our home board with 8/6 7/6.

For the final 1, playing 12/11 means we get another checker in with a 5 or 6.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 88
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBB-A-----bcb-cAb-c--:0:0:-1:61:3:6:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedXG Roller++9/3 4/3eq: +0.000
Player:
Opponent:
51.40% (G:0.92% B:0.01%)
48.60% (G:4.55% B:0.09%)
2.XG Roller++9/2eq: -0.062 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
48.61% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
51.39% (G:1.82% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++9/3 2/1eq: -0.114 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
47.57% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
52.43% (G:3.97% B:0.05%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/3 4/3.

I still want to try to contain their back checker so I keep my semblance of a blockade. Therefore, I’ll play 9/3 and find an ace. The most flexible and best ace for the bearoff is 4/3.



USBGF Members: 42 20/14


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 88
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 82
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBB-A----Abbb-c-abc--:0:0:-1:61:3:6:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedXG Roller++10/4 2/1eq: -0.308
Player:
Opponent:
40.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++10/4 6/5eq: -0.312 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
40.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++10/4 8/7eq: -0.313 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
40.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
59.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/4 2/1.

10/4 is basically forced so let’s look at my aces. I think 2/1 is slightly best, putting that dilly builder on a new point. Since my checkers that are beyond my open 5 point are all well placed to get there, I can play 2/1.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 82
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBB-A----Aabb-c-bbba-:0:0:1:51:3:6:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Friday 9/21 430p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-09-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBAC-----cb-b-cAc-bA-:0:0:1:66:3:6:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout124/12 8/2(2)eq: -0.289
Player:
Opponent:
39.50% (G:3.37% B:0.05%)
60.50% (G:2.17% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.295...-0.283) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout124/6 8/2eq: -0.313 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
38.83% (G:5.46% B:0.10%)
61.17% (G:2.74% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.319...-0.307) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 12 seconds
3.Rollout124/6 7/1eq: -0.365 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
36.46% (G:9.47% B:0.21%)
63.54% (G:4.29% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.371...-0.360) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 53 seconds
4.Rollout124/12 8/2 7/1eq: -0.381 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
36.62% (G:9.37% B:0.14%)
63.38% (G:5.90% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.387...-0.374) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[21] 24/12 8/2(2)
[ 9] 24/6 8/2
[ 2] 8/2(3) 7/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/12 8/2(2)

Before the roll we were behind 13 pips in the race, after the roll we will be ahead by 11 pips. Running is now a viable game plan so let’s get our back checker out of dodge by playing 24/12.

Our checker on the 20 point is still in danger and Neil will hit us if he gets a chance. We want to make any of our return hits as fatal as possible, so let’s improve our board by playing 8/2(2). Then we will have a killer 5 point board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBAA---A-cb-b-cAc-b--:0:0:-1:22:3:6:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout111/9(3) 4/2eq: -0.071
Player:
Opponent:
48.36% (G:0.85% B:0.01%)
51.64% (G:1.83% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.077...-0.065) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 52 seconds
2.Rollout111/9(3) 6/4eq: -0.133 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
46.53% (G:0.65% B:0.01%)
53.47% (G:1.46% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.139...-0.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/9(3) 4/2.

I can’t afford to hit loose since after continuing on to my 3 point, I leave 13 slightly gammonish shots. Also, this play is not decisive if it works since they can enter and still run away later. So I have play 11/9(3) and then 4/2 looks best keeping a builder.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 92
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCBAA---A--bcb-cAb-c--:0:0:1:11:3:6:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 9/20 745p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-09-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCB-C----Acb-c-e---bAA:0:0:1:65:3:6:0:11:10
to play 65

1.xgRollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.598
Player:
Opponent:
32.31% (G:4.96% B:0.12%)
67.69% (G:9.88% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.607...-0.589) - [59.9%]
Duration: 34 minutes 49 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.600 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
32.16% (G:4.48% B:0.10%)
67.84% (G:8.73% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.609...-0.591) - [40.1%]
Duration: 34 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 992 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] b/20 13/7
[10] b/20 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20 8/2

In this type of position, the default is to slot the next point in our inner board with 8/2. We will have a board with no high gaps if we make the 2 point so this looks good for me.

13/7 will probably be close or maybe even better, certainly I would let my partners in a chouette do whichever move they wanted as it should be a close call.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBAC-----cb-c-eA--bA-:0:0:-1:00:3:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.51% (G:9.81% B:0.22%) 67.58% (G:9.98% B:0.22%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.49% (G:4.62% B:0.09%) 32.42% (G:4.63% B:0.09%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.402 +0.795
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.560
     Double/Take:+0.424 (-0.135)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.440)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 19.0%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I might have a cube for money, but with this lead in the match I will be cautious and hold off. I can lose quickly by getting hit, or later by losing race, or even to a 20 point holding game if they make that anchor.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBAC-----cb-c-eA--bA-:0:0:-1:22:3:6:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4(2)eq: +0.656
Player:
Opponent:
68.97% (G:6.23% B:0.19%)
31.03% (G:2.22% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.646...+0.666) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout110/8(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.544 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
66.96% (G:3.47% B:0.07%)
33.04% (G:1.74% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.536...+0.552) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/4(2).

8/4 6/4(2) makes a useful point and keeps my blocking points which are also threatening builders if they don’t anchor.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 116
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCBAC-----cb-b-cAc-bA-:0:0:1:66:3:6:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BCB-C----Ccb-d-f---AA-:0:0:1:55:3:6:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout123/18 13/3 8/3eq: -0.355
Player:
Opponent:
38.27% (G:7.02% B:0.18%)
61.73% (G:6.28% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.363...-0.346) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout123/18 8/3(3)eq: -0.378 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
37.44% (G:6.86% B:0.13%)
62.56% (G:6.52% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.387...-0.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
3.playedRollout113/3(2)eq: -0.411 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
36.84% (G:6.16% B:0.12%)
63.16% (G:6.59% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.420...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
4.Rollout123/18 13/8 13/3eq: -0.419 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
36.35% (G:5.85% B:0.16%)
63.65% (G:7.24% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.428...-0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 13/3(2)
[11] 23/18 13/3 8/3
[ 7] 23/13 8/3(2)
[ 1] 23/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/18 13/3 8/3

After the roll we will still be 4 pips behind in the race with Neil on roll. Therefore, we are not aiming for a racing game plan. So we should play a checker to Neil’s bar point by playing 23/18. This makes it harder for Neil to make inner points with rolls like 51, 62 and 65 as now we will have a direct shot. This is the classic ‘distraction’ play. This encourages an exchange of hits, so we need to improve our board by making our 3 point. If we make it with 8/3(3) we create a dilly builder and give up the 8 point so instead let’s play 13/3 8/3. We make the 3 point and retain the 8 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCB-C----Acb-d-f---AA-:0:0:-1:00:3:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.00% (G:6.69% B:0.17%) 63.08% (G:6.97% B:0.17%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.00% (G:5.81% B:0.11%) 36.92% (G:5.85% B:0.10%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.268 +0.520
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.392
     Double/Take:+0.081 (-0.310)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.608)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 25.3%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I wouldn’t consider cubing this for money so it must be a huge blunder at this score, where I can face a 4 cube if I roll poorly. I simply can’t win this game often enough to cube yet and need to make a good point and then reconsider.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 125
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCB-C----Acb-d-f---AA-:0:0:-1:64:3:6:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout18/2* 6/2eq: +0.599
Player:
Opponent:
67.58% (G:7.91% B:0.19%)
32.42% (G:4.15% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.591...+0.608) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 8/4eq: +0.284 (-0.316)
Player:
Opponent:
59.47% (G:6.26% B:0.19%)
40.53% (G:7.31% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.276...+0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2* 6/2.

I’ve often said, that when you really don’t want to be hit, leave fewer or better yet no shots. Therefore, I make the 2 point which also puts one of my 6 checkers on the 6 point to work. This leaves no blots and safely retains spares to make other points.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCB-C----Acb-c-e---bAA:0:0:1:56:3:6:0:11:10
to play 56

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABC-D---bCba-d-f---AA-:0:0:1:32:3:6:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout123/20 6/4eq: -0.486
Player:
Opponent:
34.93% (G:7.52% B:0.26%)
65.07% (G:13.29% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.496...-0.476) - [81.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
2.playedRollout18/5 6/4eq: -0.492 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
34.57% (G:7.38% B:0.21%)
65.43% (G:12.01% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.502...-0.483) - [18.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 6/4eq: -0.501 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
34.55% (G:7.10% B:0.26%)
65.45% (G:12.39% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.510...-0.491) - [0.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
4.Rollout123/21 13/10eq: -0.519 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
34.05% (G:7.38% B:0.29%)
65.95% (G:13.65% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.529...-0.509) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
5.Rollout123/21 8/5eq: -0.531 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
33.77% (G:7.29% B:0.24%)
66.23% (G:13.75% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.540...-0.521) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
6.Rollout124/21 6/4eq: -0.547 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
33.56% (G:6.45% B:0.20%)
66.44% (G:11.99% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.557...-0.538) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
7.Rollout113/11 8/5eq: -0.580 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
32.50% (G:6.74% B:0.22%)
67.50% (G:13.92% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.589...-0.570) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
8.Rollout123/21 6/3eq: -0.586 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
32.82% (G:6.73% B:0.22%)
67.18% (G:14.90% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.595...-0.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
9.Rollout113/10 8/6eq: -0.588 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
32.38% (G:6.62% B:0.22%)
67.62% (G:13.11% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.599...-0.578) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
10.Rollout123/18eq: -0.589 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
32.34% (G:6.28% B:0.24%)
67.66% (G:14.50% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.599...-0.580) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
11.Rollout123/20 13/11eq: -0.593 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
32.39% (G:6.74% B:0.24%)
67.61% (G:15.35% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.603...-0.582) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
12.Rollout123/20 8/6eq: -0.597 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
32.20% (G:6.63% B:0.23%)
67.80% (G:15.25% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.608...-0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
13.Rollout18/6 8/5eq: -0.605 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
31.88% (G:6.59% B:0.21%)
68.12% (G:13.22% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.614...-0.595) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
14.Rollout18/3eq: -0.608 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:
32.30% (G:6.35% B:0.21%)
67.70% (G:13.72% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.618...-0.597) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
15.Rollout124/21 13/11eq: -0.617 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
31.71% (G:6.03% B:0.22%)
68.29% (G:13.73% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.627...-0.606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
16.Rollout124/21 8/6eq: -0.627 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:
31.45% (G:5.89% B:0.21%)
68.55% (G:13.43% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.637...-0.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
17.Rollout124/22 13/10eq: -0.628 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:
31.22% (G:5.49% B:0.19%)
68.78% (G:12.12% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.638...-0.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
18.Rollout124/22 8/5eq: -0.634 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:
30.96% (G:5.50% B:0.20%)
69.04% (G:12.19% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.644...-0.623) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
19.Rollout113/11 6/3eq: -0.638 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:
31.58% (G:6.07% B:0.23%)
68.42% (G:14.83% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.648...-0.627) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
20.Rollout124/21 23/21eq: -0.658 (-0.172)
Player:
Opponent:
29.06% (G:2.95% B:0.10%)
70.94% (G:3.96% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.666...-0.649) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[12] 8/5 6/4
[11] 24/21 23/21
[ 3] 13/10 6/4
[ 2] 23/20 6/4
[ 1] 23/18
[ 1] 24/21 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/21 6/4

Anchoring up looks bad to me as Neil will tidy up his 10 point blot and then be able to reach a point where he can double.

6/4 has to be the 2, giving us a stronger board or a ‘board with bite’ to quote a friend.

8/5 looks ok, but how do we intend to win this? The question I ask myself a lot. We need to confront Neil now with 24/21. Yes, I know that is stepping under the gun with 4 builders aimed at us. But that is my move, and in a chouette if it all went wrong, I am sure the others would think me crazy but it puts Neil under pressure right now.



Neil Kazaross: 32 13/11 13/10


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 145
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BCB-C----Ccb-d-f---AA-:0:0:1:55:3:6:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BD-C---cDbb-c-e---AA-:0:0:1:52:3:6:0:11:10
to play 52

1.Rollout123/21 13/8eq: -0.696
Player:
Opponent:
29.44% (G:4.81% B:0.14%)
70.56% (G:11.94% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.706...-0.686) - [55.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
2.xgRollout123/21 8/3eq: -0.699 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
29.54% (G:5.11% B:0.21%)
70.46% (G:12.34% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.709...-0.689) - [26.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
3.playedRollout113/8 6/4eq: -0.701 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
29.48% (G:4.77% B:0.16%)
70.52% (G:11.20% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.711...-0.691) - [15.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 8/3eq: -0.707 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
29.24% (G:4.89% B:0.18%)
70.76% (G:11.37% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.717...-0.697) - [2.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
5.Rollout18/3 6/4eq: -0.709 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
29.55% (G:4.93% B:0.16%)
70.45% (G:12.07% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.718...-0.699) - [0.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
6.Rollout123/18 6/4eq: -0.718 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
29.32% (G:4.77% B:0.18%)
70.68% (G:13.51% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.728...-0.709) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
7.Rollout123/16eq: -0.719 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
29.24% (G:5.05% B:0.21%)
70.76% (G:14.09% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.729...-0.708) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
8.Rollout124/22 13/8eq: -0.719 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
28.89% (G:4.01% B:0.17%)
71.11% (G:9.99% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.729...-0.710) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
9.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.725 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
28.85% (G:4.52% B:0.16%)
71.15% (G:10.88% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.735...-0.715) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
10.Rollout113/6eq: -0.731 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
28.57% (G:4.45% B:0.20%)
71.43% (G:11.05% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.741...-0.722) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
11.Rollout124/22 8/3eq: -0.732 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
28.58% (G:4.23% B:0.16%)
71.42% (G:10.43% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.742...-0.723) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
12.Rollout123/18 13/11eq: -0.735 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
28.62% (G:4.49% B:0.21%)
71.38% (G:12.29% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.746...-0.725) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 13/8 6/4
[ 7] 8/3 6/4
[ 5] 23/18 13/11
[ 4] 24/22 13/8
[ 3] 23/21 13/8
[ 2] 23/18 6/4
[ 1] 13/11 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 6/4

We ask ourselves: how do we intend to win this game? We cannot prime Neil, and we are behind in the race by 15 pips after the roll so racing does not looks bad. The most likely way that we will win this is if we get a shot, hit the checker and contain the hit checker.

We do not have a shot now, so we should work on containing the checker when we hopefully get the shot and hit the checker. This means we should build our board now. So we should play 6/4 then play either 8/3 (my preference) or 13/8. I would agree with either in a chouette if my partners felt strongly about either play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABC-D---cCbb-c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:54:3:6:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/8 10/6eq: +0.251
Player:
Opponent:
59.60% (G:12.09% B:0.49%)
40.40% (G:10.34% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.241...+0.261) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/1* eq: +0.220 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
59.36% (G:12.12% B:0.51%)
40.64% (G:11.52% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.208...+0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 6/2* eq: +0.129 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
57.30% (G:12.00% B:0.56%)
42.70% (G:12.69% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.118...+0.141) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
4.Rollout16/2* 6/1* eq: +0.120 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
56.78% (G:13.16% B:0.63%)
43.22% (G:12.52% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.108...+0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
5.Rollout110/1* eq: +0.112 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:
56.43% (G:11.96% B:0.55%)
43.57% (G:12.94% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.101...+0.123) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
6.Rollout111/6 10/6eq: +0.025 (-0.226)
Player:
Opponent:
53.84% (G:12.13% B:0.58%)
46.16% (G:12.95% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.014...+0.036) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 10/6.

This may be my least useful roll and makes me happy that I didn’t cube. Especially at this score, I felt that I needed to make a good point first, and then consider whether to cube.

I am now up 24 pips and out-boarded as well and don’t want to be hit as all of my checkers are at least half way home. This means play to not be hit. I leave only 9 shots, with the ugly 13/8 10/6 and if hit I have quite a few return shots. This also retains my builder structure for next roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----ABC-D---bCba-d-f---AA-:0:0:1:32:3:6:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:3:6:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout124/23 13/8eq: +0.134
Player:
Opponent:
50.12% (G:13.76% B:0.58%)
49.88% (G:13.33% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.130...+0.139) - [98.6%]
Duration: 16 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: +0.126 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
49.94% (G:14.02% B:0.55%)
50.06% (G:14.45% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.121...+0.132) - [1.4%]
Duration: 17 hours 51 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/13 13/8
[13] 13/8 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 6/5

I recommend my normal opening 51, which is to slot. Even here being behind in the match it may not be correct, but that is my play. If Neil misses, we get the chance to make our 5 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:33:3:6:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout124/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.151
Player:
Opponent:
55.61% (G:14.36% B:0.54%)
44.39% (G:8.30% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.141...+0.161) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
2.Rollout124/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.124 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
54.88% (G:14.50% B:0.67%)
45.12% (G:8.56% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.114...+0.134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout113/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.069 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
54.46% (G:17.40% B:1.14%)
45.54% (G:12.51% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.057...+0.080) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21(2) 13/10(2).

The correct play for money is to make the 21 and 10 points, and at this score where I don’t want to face gammonish cubes, this also must be correct.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=----bBD-C---cD-b-c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:55:3:6:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout121/11(2)eq: +0.645
Player:
Opponent:
69.45% (G:9.60% B:0.30%)
30.55% (G:4.57% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.635...+0.656) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout121/16(2) 10/5(2)eq: +0.504 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:
65.56% (G:14.17% B:0.54%)
34.44% (G:6.85% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.494...+0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/11(2).

When ahead in the race, one should usually run. 21/11(2) leaves me ahead 22 pips and with an outfield structure of points that functions as builders as well. I call this type of game that I will now have “15 vs. 2.” If I can soon make a point or two in my board, this position shouldn’t be too hard to bring home.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----BD-C---cDbb-c-e---AA-:0:0:1:52:3:6:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-BBBB-----bF---dbe----A-:0:0:1:00:2:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 76.47% (G:35.31% B:1.52%) 76.39% (G:36.56% B:1.40%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 23.53% (G:4.24% B:0.18%) 23.61% (G:4.49% B:0.18%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.834 +1.809
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+1.096±0.007 (+1.090..+1.103)
     Double/Take:+1.726 (+0.630)±0.011 (+1.715..+1.738)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.096)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 13.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] Double
[15] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

I always try to think of what I would do in a doubling position for money, then adjust for the match score. In New Zealand, we do not use the Jacoby rule, so it is even easier to adjust as we have to consider if we are Too Good to Double.

Here we have a four point board, we have escaped one checker and our opponent has a checker on the bar. Neil has a three prime and a stripped mid-point. For money I think we are Too Good to Double.

At 9 away 5 away, I still think we are Too Good to Double, but we should double if we thought that our opponent would mistakenly take. This is dependent on the opponent, but here I do not think a player of Neil’s ability would take this, so we have to hold on to the cube.


Neil Kazaross passes.

I pass thinking that they were too good to double here. Note that many of my entering rolls expose a new blot.


USBGF Members win one point, and Neil Kazaross leads 5-away/8-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:51:3:6:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---bF---dbe----A-:0:0:1:33:2:6:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/5(2) 6/3*(2) eq: +0.999
Player:
Opponent:
72.25% (G:29.49% B:1.41%)
27.75% (G:5.21% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.993...+1.005) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout113/10(2) 6/3*(2) eq: +0.870 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:
66.78% (G:22.70% B:1.00%)
33.22% (G:7.52% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.862...+0.878) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 8/5(2) 6/3*(2)
[ 1] 13/10(2) 6/3*(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5(2) 6/3*(2)

For money, we should play 8/5(2) 6/3*(2) to win more games and more gammons. Here we are trailing 9-away/5-away, so we need to make aggressive moves which win more gammons, so we should just make the same play that we would for money.



Neil Kazaross: 33 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 151
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 138
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-BBBB-----bF---dbe----A-:0:0:1:00:2:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 35
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 41
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ECBC-B------------baabd--:0:0:-1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 97.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 97.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 2.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 2.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.950 +2.045
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+1.000 (0.000)±0.000 (+1.000..+1.000)
     Double/Take:+2.037 (+1.037)±0.001 (+2.036..+2.039)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] Pass
[ 1] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Pass

We need to use Matussek’s adjustments to the EPC to get the EPC. Matussek’s paper on EPC gave an exact formula for the number of checkers on each point, but then in the iSight paper the author outlined an approximate method. I use both methods depending on the position.

It usually takes 3 lessons to fully cover EPC, so I will not attempt to cover it completely here.

With the approximate method you take the raw Pipcount plus a constant of 5, plus 2 for every checker on the 1 point and 1 for every checker on the 2 or 3 points.

We have 41 + 5 + (2 * 5) + (1 * 5) = 61, our actual EPC is 60.7

Neil has 35 + 5 + (1 * 6) = 46 which is the actual EPC.

John O’Hagan recommended that you take 7 from each EPC and then plug the numbers in to the Kleinman count. If we subtract 7 we get our side 54, and Neil 39. I like to use the Benjamin count, which was invented by Arthur Benjamin as I have always found it more accurate than the Kleinman count. It uses the Kleinman count as its basis, and the simple way I describe it is “it’s like the Kleinman count but was more calculations to get a more accurate answer.” Here the Benjamin count = 364÷68 = 5.3

In the table for the Benjamin count 5.3 is equivalent to 94% winning chances for Neil. This makes it very easy, as our take point has to be greater than 6% so we should pass. Note that in fact Neil wins this 97.5% of the time. The effective live cube take point at 9 away 4 away is 24% from memory.

Although the Benjamin count has slightly more calculations than the Kleinman count, you can minimize the amount of calculations if you are prepared to put in the time memorizing numbers. It is not for the fainthearted, but I have never found a method more accurate. Of course, you may be seriously good at doing mathematical calculations, in which case you would need to do less memorization.

Anyway, this would be my approach over the board.


Neil Kazaross wins one point and leads 5-away/9-away.



Neil Kazaross: 51 24/23 13/8
USBGF Members: 65 24/13

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-C---dF---d-e----A-:0:0:-1:41:2:6:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout123/22 13/9eq: -0.254
Player:
Opponent:
45.87% (G:12.36% B:0.60%)
54.13% (G:12.34% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.258...-0.250) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 53 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 23/22eq: -0.266 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
45.70% (G:10.18% B:0.45%)
54.30% (G:11.85% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.270...-0.262) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 49 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/22 13/9.

It seems best to try to make a slight improvement on both sides of the board with 23/22 13/9.



USBGF Members: 42 8/4 6/4
Neil Kazaross: 62 13/7 9/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 148
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---bF---dbe----A-:0:0:1:33:2:6:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBBB------a-----Bdbcad--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout15/4 5/1eq: -0.558
Player:
Opponent:
32.63% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
67.37% (G:0.52% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.563...-0.553) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout15/1 2/1eq: -0.633 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
30.28% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
69.72% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.640...-0.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 5/4 5/1
[ 3] 18/13
[ 1] 18/14 2/1
[ 1] 5/1 2/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 5/4 5/1

HI Jason,

“We missed, and although I hate to tear up our board, we have to.

The way to tear it up is 5/4 5/1, as this leaves no blots. We will get a another chance to hit Neil’s blot when he does not get past us on 16 rolls (66, 33, 22, 11, 51, 42, 41, 32, 31, 21). That’s 42% of the time, and assuming we then hit 1/3 of those rolls, that’s 14% of the time overall.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ECBC-------a-----Bdbcad--:0:0:-1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 67.40% (G:0.57% B:0.01%) 67.56% (G:0.55% B:0.01%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 32.60% (G:0.06% B:0.00%) 32.44% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.354 +0.817
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.558±0.005 (+0.553..+0.563)
     Double/Take:+0.501 (-0.057)±0.007 (+0.494..+0.507)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.442)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 10.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41909390
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

Memory says that I am hit about 15% next roll due to not being able to get by this roll. This would seem to indicate that I can cube, but while I lead in the race due to their wastage, this lead isn’t overwhelming. My 66, which would be a game winner if I could move, is a complete waste of 24 pips. The score is also a factor, as if I have to eat a 4 cube after getting hit, I have little vig in recubing to 8 for the match. All in all, it seems prudent to wait. I’d cube for sure if I were certain to be able to get by their anchor, even with a 7. But, here I’ll wait and reconsider next turn if not hit.



Neil Kazaross: 55 13/3 5/0(2)
USBGF Members: 41 18/17 18/14
Neil Kazaross: 64 6/0 4/0
USBGF Members: 64 17/11 14/10
Neil Kazaross: 41 6/5 4/0
USBGF Members: 54 11/6 10/6

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 35
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 41
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ECBC-B------------baabd--:0:0:-1:00:2:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-09-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCBBA-----b-----Bcbcad--:0:0:1:42:2:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout16/2 3/1eq: -0.177
Player:
Opponent:
44.67% (G:0.76% B:0.02%)
55.33% (G:1.38% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.183...-0.172) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 5/1eq: -0.283 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
41.03% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
58.97% (G:2.34% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.289...-0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout16/2 5/3eq: -0.285 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:
41.02% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)
58.98% (G:2.45% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.291...-0.279) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds
4.Rollout15/3 5/1eq: -0.288 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
40.74% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
59.26% (G:2.27% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.294...-0.282) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 37 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 6/2 3/1
[ 1] 5/3 5/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/2 3/1

There is no way we should leave a double shot here, especially as the alternative 6/2 3/1 retains a 5 point board, so that is the play.

If we had rolled 52 then we should still keep the 18 point by playing 6/1 3/1.



Neil Kazaross: 61 13/6


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-DCBBB------a-----Bdbcad--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBBA----b-----Bcbcad--:0:0:1:63:2:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout17/1 6/3eq: -0.244
Player:
Opponent:
42.60% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
57.40% (G:1.27% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.250...-0.238) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout17/1 5/2eq: -0.281 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
41.14% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
58.86% (G:1.49% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.286...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 55 seconds
3.Rollout118/9eq: -0.289 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
40.17% (G:2.23% B:0.06%)
59.83% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.295...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 7/1 6/3
[11] 18/9
[ 1] 18/15 7/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 7/1 6/3

If we run, any 6 for Neil is now much better than if we stay.

If we run, we will be ahead in the race by 1 pip, which means we are behind in the race.

The argument against running is that Neil’s board will improve next roll so it will be harder to run later. Firstly, we do not want to run unless we roll big doubles so we will not be leaving a shot. If we play 7/1 6/3, and Neil then rolls 54, 53, 51, 43 or 42 then he still leaves an inner board blot. 54 leaves two inner board blots.

So, we should give up one inner board point to make Neil’s 6’s awkward.



Neil Kazaross: 66 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBCBBA-----b-----Bcbcad--:0:0:1:42:2:5:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BABBBC-A---b----cBcbcaa--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout18/7 6/2eq: -0.154
Player:
Opponent:
45.23% (G:1.63% B:0.04%)
54.77% (G:2.12% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.157...-0.152) - [99.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
2.Rollout16/5 6/2eq: -0.160 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
44.95% (G:1.50% B:0.03%)
55.05% (G:2.15% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.162...-0.157) - [0.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
3.Rollout26/2 5/4eq: -0.173 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
44.57% (G:1.56% B:0.04%)
55.43% (G:2.32% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.179...-0.168) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 52 seconds
4.Rollout26/1eq: -0.174 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
44.48% (G:1.65% B:0.04%)
55.52% (G:2.40% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.180...-0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 26 seconds
5.Rollout26/2 3/2eq: -0.186 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
44.31% (G:1.19% B:0.03%)
55.69% (G:2.33% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.192...-0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 33 seconds
6.Rollout26/2 4/3eq: -0.198 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
44.08% (G:1.27% B:0.03%)
55.92% (G:2.39% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.204...-0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 44 seconds
7.Rollout25/4 5/1eq: -0.203 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
43.75% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
56.25% (G:2.27% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.209...-0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 14 seconds
8.Rollout28/7 5/1eq: -0.209 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
43.83% (G:1.23% B:0.03%)
56.17% (G:2.59% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.215...-0.203) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 53 seconds
9.Rollout25/1 3/2eq: -0.215 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
43.64% (G:1.12% B:0.02%)
56.36% (G:2.52% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.221...-0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 42 seconds
10.Rollout218/13eq: -0.232 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
41.65% (G:10.12% B:0.24%)
58.35% (G:9.19% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.238...-0.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 13 seconds
11.Rollout25/1 4/3eq: -0.243 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:
42.91% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
57.09% (G:2.52% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.249...-0.237) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 01 second
12.Rollout28/4 6/5eq: -0.255 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
42.18% (G:1.74% B:0.05%)
57.82% (G:1.96% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.261...-0.249) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 13 seconds
13.Rollout28/4 3/2eq: -0.257 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
42.16% (G:1.83% B:0.05%)
57.84% (G:2.15% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.263...-0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 36 seconds
14.Rollout28/3eq: -0.260 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
42.10% (G:1.74% B:0.04%)
57.90% (G:2.01% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.266...-0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 15 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 8/7 6/2



Neil Kazaross: 66 8/2(3)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 77
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 85
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BBBBBBA----b-----Bcbcad--:0:0:1:63:2:5:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BBBC-B---b----dBdbc----:0:0:1:42:2:5:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/2eq: -0.026
Player:
Opponent:
49.45% (G:2.84% B:0.07%)
50.55% (G:2.69% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.034...-0.018) - [99.5%]
Duration: 36 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/2eq: -0.039 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
49.28% (G:1.55% B:0.03%)
50.72% (G:2.58% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.046...-0.033) - [0.4%]
Duration: 35 minutes 58 seconds
3.Rollout16/2 4/2eq: -0.042 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
49.08% (G:1.98% B:0.03%)
50.92% (G:2.57% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.049...-0.035) - [0.1%]
Duration: 31 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 8/2
[13] 6/2 4/2
[ 2] 8/6 8/4
[ 1] 8/4 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2

To Slot or Not to Slot (the 2 point) that is the question.

We should avoid slotting the 2 point (8/2) if we think we will be getting a shot next turn, so how likely are we to get a shot next turn?

I do not think Neil will pay now with 51, 52, 53, 54 or even 44. He is behind in the race and his better move is to stay put and try to hit us when we leave the 18 point. So if we will not be getting a shot next turn we should just go ahead and slot the 2 point.

Even if we move two of Neil’s checkers from his 8 point to his 3 point, I do not think he should slot with 54 (and so not slot with 51, 52, or 53) so again we should just go ahead and slot the 2 point.

Slotting in these types of positions is my default play, and I have to be convinced it is incorrect before I choose another alternative.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BABBBC-A---b----dBdbc----:0:0:-1:54:2:5:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout18/3 6/2eq: +0.032
Player:
Opponent:
51.29% (G:4.13% B:0.15%)
48.71% (G:5.96% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.026...+0.038) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 6/1eq: +0.013 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
49.97% (G:2.22% B:0.07%)
50.03% (G:3.50% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.005...+0.021) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout18/4 8/3eq: -0.036 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
48.60% (G:1.89% B:0.05%)
51.40% (G:2.32% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.043...-0.029) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/2.

I cannot make a new point, so I should just be flexible and slot the next two points I need with 8/3 6/2. By keeping a spare on my 8 point I avoid the disaster of a blotting 61.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 95
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BABBBC-A---b----cBcbcaa--:0:0:1:41:2:5:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-BBADAB---b-b--cBcbc----:0:0:1:61:2:5:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout18/2 6/5eq: +0.058
Player:
Opponent:
52.36% (G:3.39% B:0.06%)
47.64% (G:2.71% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.055...+0.061) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 14 minutes
2.playedRollout17/1 6/5eq: +0.051 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
52.20% (G:3.40% B:0.06%)
47.80% (G:2.69% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.048...+0.054) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 56 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 7/1 6/5
[17] 8/2 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2 6/5

We don’t want to hit Neil here, so we will be happy to disengage and get into a race as we will be ahead in the race by 16 pips after the roll.

So, we want the best distribution so we should play 6/5 then 8/2 which means every one of our inner board points has at least one checker on it.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BBBC-B---b-b--cBcbc----:0:0:-1:53:2:5:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.056
Player:
Opponent:
47.82% (G:2.65% B:0.09%)
52.18% (G:3.55% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.059...-0.053) - [74.8%]
Duration: 4 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout16/1 4/1eq: -0.058 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
47.49% (G:2.40% B:0.07%)
52.51% (G:3.35% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.060...-0.055) - [25.2%]
Duration: 4 hours 21 minutes
3.playedRollout111/8 11/6eq: -0.070 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
47.11% (G:2.44% B:0.07%)
52.89% (G:2.11% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.073...-0.067) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/8 11/6.

A difficult decision for me here as I am 8 pips behind after my play. I have to decide whether to clear the 11 point or not. Clearing reduces my chances to leave a blot soon and get hit and would be my play if the race were a little closer.

Making the 3 point would be clear if I had more timing or were further behind in pips. Making the ace pt is also another option, but I don’t think those checkers belong there, so while likely close, I will choose from one of the other two options.

Taking a close look, I see that they can usually handle two rolls before anything compromising happens to them. If I retain the 11 point, I have 3 stripped outfield points and won’t like any ace except 11, and what about my subsequent turn? It seems prudent to clear now. But then the issue is that I don’t have my 3 point and that I also usually lose the game if they roll 44.

I lean towards clearing as I am afraid to have to blot vs. their good board and since I can usually still make a decent board adequate to win if I hit them later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 96
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-B-BBBC-B---b----dBdbc----:0:0:1:42:2:5:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 119
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A--B-DCB---bAbb-cBcab----:0:0:1:44:2:5:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout113/5 7/3(2)eq: +0.112
Player:
Opponent:
54.44% (G:3.91% B:0.07%)
45.56% (G:2.85% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.109...+0.115) - [97.7%]
Duration: 8 hours 52 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 7/3(2) 6/2eq: +0.107 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
54.32% (G:3.79% B:0.07%)
45.68% (G:2.92% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.104...+0.110) - [1.7%]
Duration: 8 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout113/5 7/3 6/2eq: +0.106 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
54.28% (G:3.96% B:0.07%)
45.72% (G:3.08% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.103...+0.109) - [0.3%]
Duration: 7 hours 44 minutes
4.xgRollout113/9 7/3 6/2(2)eq: +0.105 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
54.28% (G:3.78% B:0.07%)
45.72% (G:3.08% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.102...+0.108) - [0.1%]
Duration: 7 hours 06 minutes
5.Rollout113/9 8/4 7/3 6/2eq: +0.101 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
54.04% (G:4.45% B:0.09%)
45.96% (G:3.60% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.098...+0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 20 minutes
6.Rollout213/5 8/4 7/3eq: +0.098 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
53.90% (G:3.99% B:0.08%)
46.10% (G:3.25% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.090...+0.107) - [0.2%]
Duration: 53 minutes 20 seconds
7.Rollout213/5 6/2(2)eq: +0.098 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
54.05% (G:3.99% B:0.07%)
45.95% (G:3.41% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.091...+0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
8.Rollout213/5 8/4 6/2eq: +0.098 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
53.82% (G:4.46% B:0.09%)
46.18% (G:3.73% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.090...+0.106) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 17 seconds
9.Rollout213/9 8/4 7/3(2)eq: +0.094 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
53.80% (G:4.02% B:0.06%)
46.20% (G:3.19% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.086...+0.102) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
10.Rollout213/1 7/3eq: +0.091 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
53.76% (G:3.86% B:0.07%)
46.24% (G:3.27% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.083...+0.098) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
11.Rollout213/9 8/4 6/2(2)eq: +0.089 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
53.90% (G:3.49% B:0.06%)
46.10% (G:3.32% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.082...+0.097) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 15 seconds
12.Rollout213/1 6/2eq: +0.084 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
53.61% (G:3.60% B:0.06%)
46.39% (G:3.41% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.076...+0.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 35 seconds
13.Rollout213/9 7/3(3)eq: +0.078 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
53.43% (G:4.02% B:0.07%)
46.57% (G:3.33% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.070...+0.086) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 13/5 7/3(2)
[ 7] 13/5 6/2(2)
[ 1] 13/9 7/3(3)
[ 1] 13/9 7/3 6/2(2)
[ 1] 13/1 6/2
[ 1] 13/1 7/3
[ 1] 13/1 8/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/5 7/3(2)

After the roll we will be up by 20 pips. So we need to safety the blot on our 13 point. We want to have the best distribution for racing so we should play 13/5 then consider the other two 4’s.

Neil could still get back into the race by rolling large doubles so we want to keep the option of hitting him open, so we should just improve my board with 7/3(2).

In a chouette I would not argue with 13/5 7/3 6/2, putting a checker on every one of our inner board points, which assumes we will just be racing.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-BBADAB---b-bb-cBcab----:0:0:-1:65:2:5:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout110/5 10/4eq: -0.094
Player:
Opponent:
46.17% (G:2.45% B:0.11%)
53.83% (G:2.87% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.100...-0.088) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout111/6 11/5eq: -0.126 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
44.82% (G:2.49% B:0.10%)
55.18% (G:2.65% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.133...-0.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 25 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5 10/4.

I am 9 pips down after I play this roll. Thus, I think it is probably better to maintain as much contact as possible and block their 44 which will probably defeat me if they can run with it. If the pip count was close, I’d be more concerned about getting squeezed myself and would clear the 11 point, but not here.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 112
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 103
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A-BBADAB---b-b--cBcbc----:0:0:1:61:2:5:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A--AbDCB---bBb--cBcab----:0:0:1:63:2:5:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/4eq: +0.131
Player:
Opponent:
54.15% (G:8.19% B:0.21%)
45.85% (G:8.04% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.121...+0.140) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
2.xgRollout17/1 6/3eq: +0.111 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
53.84% (G:7.59% B:0.15%)
46.16% (G:9.28% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.103...+0.119) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
3.Rollout113/7 6/3eq: +0.049 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
52.16% (G:7.47% B:0.19%)
47.84% (G:8.88% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.040...+0.057) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
4.Rollout17/4 7/1eq: +0.048 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
51.40% (G:9.68% B:0.22%)
48.60% (G:10.46% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.039...+0.057) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
5.Rollout113/10 13/7eq: +0.048 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
52.29% (G:6.48% B:0.14%)
47.71% (G:6.90% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.039...+0.056) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
6.Rollout113/7 4/1eq: +0.047 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
52.11% (G:7.46% B:0.16%)
47.89% (G:8.82% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.038...+0.056) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 13/4
[13] 7/1 6/3
[ 1] 13/7 4/1
[ 1] 7/4 7/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/4

Again we should break the mid-point to get us more flexibility and timing by playing 13/4. This actually covers the 4 point, improving our board and duplicates Neil’s 1’s to both hit and cover.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 119
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A--BbDCB---bAb--cBcab----:0:0:-1:55:2:5:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout120/10(2)eq: -0.033
Player:
Opponent:
48.08% (G:2.29% B:0.11%)
51.92% (G:2.65% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.040...-0.026) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
2.Rollout120/15(2) 8/3(2)eq: -0.093 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
47.38% (G:7.13% B:0.46%)
52.62% (G:8.34% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.101...-0.085) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
3.Rollout120/15(2) 6/1(2)eq: -0.095 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
46.44% (G:3.26% B:0.24%)
53.56% (G:4.78% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.103...-0.087) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
4.Rollout120/15(2) 8/3 6/1eq: -0.101 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
46.87% (G:4.59% B:0.22%)
53.13% (G:7.12% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.109...-0.093) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
5.Rollout120/15(2) 11/6(2)eq: -0.118 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
45.70% (G:2.86% B:0.15%)
54.30% (G:3.54% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.125...-0.110) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
6.Rollout120/15(2) 13/8(2)eq: -0.123 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
44.90% (G:1.90% B:0.06%)
55.10% (G:2.32% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.131...-0.116) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/10(2).

I really have no choice but to come around to my 10 point, as anything else results in me having the worse timing. As I now trail by 4 pips and there’s quite a bit of timing remaining for them, at best I have an even game, but one that shouldn’t lose a gammon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 123
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 119
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A--B-DCB---bAbb-cBcab----:0:0:1:44:2:5:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-09-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bEDB---bBb--dBcaa----:0:0:1:62:2:5:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout113/7 6/4eq: +0.144
Player:
Opponent:
54.76% (G:6.23% B:0.18%)
45.24% (G:6.21% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.140...+0.147) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 47 minutes
2.playedRollout17/1 6/4eq: +0.135 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
54.56% (G:6.40% B:0.15%)
45.44% (G:7.63% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.132...+0.139) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 08 minutes
3.Rollout213/11 13/7eq: +0.112 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
53.80% (G:6.09% B:0.18%)
46.20% (G:5.81% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.103...+0.121) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
4.Rollout28/2 6/4eq: +0.052 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
51.64% (G:7.59% B:0.22%)
48.36% (G:8.62% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.044...+0.061) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 7/1 6/4
[ 4] 13/7 6/4
[ 3] 13/11 13/7
[ 2] 18/10
[ 1] 8/2 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 6/4

Anytime our opponent has two or more inner board blots and only their 6 point, we know we can put my checkers where we want them to be.

That said, 16/10 would be too big, as Neil would have too many hit and cover numbers.

13/7 6/4 is best as it starts an inner board point, and if Neil hits we will have direct shots back. If Neil had only one blot in his inner board, we should make the same move but with no inner board blots we should play 7/1 6/4.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A--AbDCB---bBb--dBcaa----:0:0:-1:31:2:5:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout18/4eq: -0.166
Player:
Opponent:
44.46% (G:8.04% B:0.29%)
55.54% (G:6.80% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.169...-0.162) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 hours 03 minutes
2.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.181 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
44.03% (G:7.68% B:0.29%)
55.97% (G:7.03% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.184...-0.177) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 29 minutes
3.Rollout18/5 4/3eq: -0.181 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
44.08% (G:7.69% B:0.29%)
55.92% (G:7.12% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.185...-0.178) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 25 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4.

Here I play 8/5 and look at the position to play my ace. Then 5/4 looks clear since I have the 11 point which aims at the 5 point. If I am forced to blot, breaking the 11 point with a 6, it is nice to be able to make my 5 point in case I return hit. Made points 6 apart don’t work very well together, i.e. the 2 and 8 points. Points made 6 behind a desired open point work well together, for example playing 13/11(2) 6/4(2) with an early 22.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-A--AbDCB---bBb--cBcab----:0:0:1:63:2:5:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bEBC---bCb--dBe------:0:0:1:61:2:5:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.126
Player:
Opponent:
54.18% (G:5.30% B:0.15%)
45.82% (G:6.00% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.123...+0.130) - [78.9%]
Duration: 14 hours 00 minute
2.Rollout113/6eq: +0.124 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
54.07% (G:5.43% B:0.15%)
45.93% (G:6.09% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.121...+0.128) - [21.1%]
Duration: 13 hours 47 minutes
3.Rollout18/1eq: +0.086 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
52.95% (G:5.68% B:0.15%)
47.05% (G:7.54% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.082...+0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 44 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 13/7 8/7
[ 5] 13/6
[ 3] 8/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

We want to keep all our checkers in front of Neil’s anchor so we should play 13/7 then look for the best 1.

8/7 avoids over stacking the 6 point so that would be the play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bEDB---bBb--dBe------:0:0:-1:21:2:5:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout16/5 6/4eq: -0.184
Player:
Opponent:
44.08% (G:6.17% B:0.22%)
55.92% (G:5.78% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.192...-0.176) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
2.Rollout16/3eq: -0.204 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
43.57% (G:6.15% B:0.25%)
56.43% (G:6.37% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.212...-0.195) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
3.Rollout18/5eq: -0.206 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
43.48% (G:6.23% B:0.26%)
56.52% (G:6.23% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.213...-0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 6/4.

I neglected building my board last roll, but I must go for it with 6/5 6/4.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bEDB---bBb--dBcaa----:0:0:1:62:2:5:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-B-A-bD---abc-abAbA:0:0:-1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.32% (G:51.42% B:1.71%) 70.50% (G:52.38% B:1.69%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.68% (G:8.14% B:0.48%) 29.50% (G:8.45% B:0.53%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.864 +1.735
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.885 (-0.115)±0.009 (+0.876..+0.894)
     Double/Take:+1.376 (+0.376)±0.015 (+1.361..+1.391)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] Pass
[ 4] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Pass

Neil has 11 checkers in the zone, 2 new inner board points, a fourth point slotted, one of our checkers on the bar, his back checkers split and we have a blot in our outer board. As compensation we have the 4 point.

I know we are behind in the match but there is no way we should take this.


Neil Kazaross leads 6-away/9-away.



Neil Kazaross: 54 24/20 13/8
USBGF Members: 66 24/18(2) 13/7(2)

Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aEBC---dC---dBe------:0:0:-1:22:2:5:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout124/20 13/11(2)eq: -0.194
Player:
Opponent:
43.88% (G:5.51% B:0.19%)
56.12% (G:5.50% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.202...-0.185) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 6/4(2)eq: -0.229 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
43.00% (G:5.55% B:0.20%)
57.00% (G:4.95% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.238...-0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20 13/11(2).

Anchoring 24/20 is a must, especially at this score, where I don’t want to face gammonish cubes. Then I slightly prefer 13/11(2) even though this strips me in the outerboard. The idea is to better restrain their checkers on my 18 point for a while. My eight forward checkers can hopefully make a couple of points later. This is a mutual holding game and I only trail by 7 pips and don’t want to nearly lose the game should they roll 44 soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 5
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 143
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-----bEBC---bCb--dBe------:0:0:1:61:2:5:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:63:2:4:0:11:10
to play 63

1.xgRollout124/18 13/10eq: +0.216
Player:
Opponent:
53.94% (G:15.96% B:0.75%)
46.06% (G:13.24% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.211...+0.220) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 hours 11 minutes
2.playedRollout124/15eq: +0.201 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
54.10% (G:14.45% B:0.71%)
45.90% (G:12.96% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.197...+0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout213/4eq: +0.169 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
52.08% (G:17.44% B:0.69%)
47.92% (G:13.43% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.158...+0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 24/15
[ 5] 24/18 13/10
[ 3] 13/4
[ 1] 24/21 8/2*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 13/10

For many years I used to play an opening 63 by running 24/15. The reason for this was I read ‘The Amazing Book of Backgammon’ by John Tremaine, where he advocated 24/15 with an opening 63. I therefore became very used to playing out the game is that this led to.

Here, my default play is 24/15, as I’m used to the type of games that it leads to. Also there is a lot of duplication of 3’s.

That’s fine but we really have to look to see if it is the best move. Any time our opponent has a checker on their 9 point (in the very early game), we should be aware that they have a very powerful builder and we should consider either a tempo hit or move that acts like a tempo hit in that it distracts them from building inner board points. Here, 24/18 13/10 is that type of distracting play.

So I find myself torn between these 2 moves, and over the board at a normal match score, I would mentally just toss a coin. Here being behind in the match we should seek complications and go for 24/18 13/10.

I am far from certain and could easily be very wrong here but that is my play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-B---dE-Aac-e----A-:0:0:-1:55:2:4:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout18/3(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.082
Player:
Opponent:
50.63% (G:24.80% B:0.55%)
49.37% (G:13.28% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.069...+0.096) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
2.Rollout123/13 6/1*(2) eq: -0.008 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
49.55% (G:15.54% B:0.29%)
50.45% (G:11.68% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.018...+0.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3(2) 6/1*(2).

There are two plays to consider, both starting with 6/1*(2), so I make that part of the play and then consider the final two 5’s. 23/13 is the more passive play leaving fewer blots and hoping to escape my remaining back checker later with my slight racing lead.

But the normal 8/3(2) has more appeal and is quite threatening. 8/3(2) does leave them five 8 shots including a nasty 44, but it takes away their 63 shot that now dances. I am doing very well after their 9 dances and their entering 1’s don’t play very well as they cannot safety their blot. Their only good entering 3 is the hitting 53. Yes, I attack with the usual 55 play in the early game.



USBGF Members: 31 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 142
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-B---dE-Aaa-c--b-bA:0:0:-1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62.18% (G:36.69% B:0.58%) 62.46% (G:38.06% B:0.75%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.82% (G:9.34% B:0.56%) 37.54% (G:9.63% B:0.62%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.527 +1.077
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.610 (-0.025)±0.004 (+0.606..+0.614)
     Double/Take:+0.636±0.007 (+0.629..+0.643)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.364)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 hours 47 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

I would cube at an even score, I’d cube in money play, but here with a 2 point lead I think I have a borderline decision since I won’t like taking a somewhat gammonish 4 cube if things turn around. No one will pass this, so I will be cautious and just roll.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 142
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-B---dE-Aaa-c--b-bA:0:0:-1:62:2:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 9/7eq: +0.281
Player:
Opponent:
54.59% (G:28.58% B:0.57%)
45.41% (G:11.19% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.269...+0.293) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 8/6eq: +0.254 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
53.68% (G:28.02% B:0.55%)
46.32% (G:11.69% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.242...+0.266) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
3.xgRollout124/16eq: +0.252 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
54.04% (G:28.10% B:0.69%)
45.96% (G:12.99% B:0.89%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.243...+0.260) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
4.Rollout124/22 13/7eq: +0.250 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
53.40% (G:28.48% B:0.43%)
46.60% (G:12.03% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.242...+0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
5.Rollout124/18 8/6eq: +0.241 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
54.37% (G:26.33% B:0.73%)
45.63% (G:12.43% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.229...+0.253) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7 9/7.

While my bar point isn’t a real part of any priming game now, it does consolidate two builders in my attack zone to pound their checker when it enters. Other plays seem to be too loose. The best way for me to maintain the initiative is to not be hit where they want to hit me.



USBGF Members: 43 b/21 13/10


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-B-A-cD-A-abc-Ab-b-:0:0:-1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.57% (G:30.02% B:0.87%) 55.71% (G:30.96% B:1.01%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.43% (G:11.27% B:0.63%) 44.29% (G:11.85% B:0.74%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.310 +0.616
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.291±0.010 (+0.282..+0.301)
     Double/Take:+0.095 (-0.196)±0.017 (+0.079..+0.112)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.709)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

No cube here, as their 4 point helps them and if I cannot do well with a blitz I will soon be an underdog.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 146
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-B-A-cD-A-abc-Ab-b-:0:0:-1:63:2:4:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/10* 10/4* eq: +0.602
Player:
Opponent:
62.71% (G:41.79% B:1.42%)
37.29% (G:11.22% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.593...+0.611) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 48 seconds
2.Rollout124/15* eq: +0.220 (-0.382)
Player:
Opponent:
54.66% (G:28.22% B:0.94%)
45.34% (G:12.55% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.210...+0.230) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51276789
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10*/4*.

The double hit is very strong and will lead to many gammon wins.



USBGF Members: 32 b/23


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-B-A-bD---abc-abAbA:0:0:-1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-08-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 175
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaBa-D-B-a-bCa----bBbbb-B:0:0:-1:00:2:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.25% (G:26.45% B:0.90%) 65.18% (G:26.82% B:0.91%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.75% (G:7.63% B:0.30%) 34.82% (G:7.75% B:0.32%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.523 +1.094
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.777±0.005 (+0.771..+0.782)
xg Double/Take:+0.756 (-0.020)±0.007 (+0.750..+0.763)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.223)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.7%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 hours 34 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] Pass
[10] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

This looks scary. But consider, we have an advanced anchor. We are 56% to enter one checker every roll. We have another inner board point with our 3 point being made. Neil has 3 checkers back, and it will take time for him to bring them around. And we are behind by 1 point in the match.

When we enter both our checkers, we will be able to build our board and then hopefully get a shot. I think we should take.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

I cubed this since I was unsure whether it technically was a proper double or not. I have much work to do to bring my checkers around to home and no builders to make my ace point, and no points in my outfield as landing/blocking points. Much of the time they can enter both checkers over the next few rolls and have plenty of counter play often shooting at blots as I come towards home. Note that I have three checkers way back. Of course, none of this means that they have a good game. Their board isn’t very threatening at the moment and won’t be until they can enter two checkers and then make a point or two more. I suspect they lose a gammon at least 1/4 of the time.

When I’ve been unsure of the double, I’ve often held back in the OLM, but thoughts of holding back here didn’t cross my mind since this is a type of position where I’ve seen so many players terrified of two checkers on the bar and they pass. Yes, I was hoping to get a majority vote to pass here.

In defense of those who passed, this isn’t an easy position and it looks very scary. Just improve my position somewhat and things head towards big pass territory quickly.


Neil Kazaross leads 7-away/9-away.



USBGF Members: 42 8/4 6/4
Neil Kazaross: 41 24/23 13/9

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:63:2:4:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-Bb-D-BA--cCa----bBbbbA-:0:0:1:64:2:3:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/14* eq: +0.023
Player:
Opponent:
51.40% (G:12.94% B:0.47%)
48.60% (G:14.65% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.011...+0.035) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
2.Rollout120/14* 13/9eq: -0.048 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
50.45% (G:12.64% B:0.52%)
49.55% (G:17.90% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.059...-0.037) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/14*
[ 9] 20/14 13/9
[ 1] 24/20 9/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/14*

We are going to hit 20/14*, so over the board I would make that part of the move then look at what is the best 4.

13/9 looks like it blocks Neil’s 21 point anchor. It provides safe landing spots but it gives up the 20 point. If we play 24/20, then we retain the anchor in case something goes wrong. We will have 5’s and 4’s to make the 9 point if we are not hit on the next roll.

The longer I play Backgammon, the more I like keeping an anchor, so I will recommend 24/14*.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 148
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa-Bb-D-BA--cCA----bBbbb--:0:0:-1:52:2:3:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 21/16* eq: +0.360
Player:
Opponent:
56.68% (G:20.72% B:0.99%)
43.32% (G:11.45% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.348...+0.372) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 13/11* eq: +0.310 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
56.24% (G:18.59% B:0.78%)
43.76% (G:10.95% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.298...+0.323) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 21/16*.

This is the old “which one to hit?” problem. In general players cling to anchors too long in this situation. I think it is somewhat better for me based on my large advantage in homeboard points to make the hit that gains the most pips and removes their builder while preparing to move out and head for home. Of course, this could blow up in my face if I get hit and dance, but all I really am much afraid of is their 55 response.



USBGF Members: 42 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaBa-D-Ba--cCA----bBbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:2:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62.54% (G:24.48% B:0.92%) 62.66% (G:24.45% B:0.89%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.46% (G:8.72% B:0.40%) 37.34% (G:8.79% B:0.43%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.436 +0.912
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.633±0.014 (+0.619..+0.646)
     Double/Take:+0.557 (-0.076)±0.018 (+0.538..+0.575)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.367)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

When I was choosing between my last two plays, I also tried to decide if I could double if they danced. I came to the conclusion that I probably shouldn’t. I retain that conclusion now. While 2/3 of my rolls hit, I face a difficult road home with several back checkers and no landing points in my outfield. I think it is better to see if I can hit now, and if I do then decide what to do with the cube next turn.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaBa-D-Ba--cCA----bBbbb-A:0:0:-1:21:2:3:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout116/15 13/11* eq: +0.607
Player:
Opponent:
62.07% (G:24.14% B:0.93%)
37.93% (G:9.09% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.601...+0.612) - [69.3%]
Duration: 10 hours 50 minutes
2.xgRollout121/20 13/11* eq: +0.605 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
62.05% (G:23.98% B:0.96%)
37.95% (G:9.22% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.599...+0.610) - [30.3%]
Duration: 10 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout113/11* 11/10eq: +0.598 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
61.95% (G:23.53% B:0.92%)
38.05% (G:9.10% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.592...+0.603) - [0.4%]
Duration: 10 hours 33 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 16/15 13/11*.

I am happy to hit 13/11* and then must find the best ace. 24/23 dodges 55 completely but I don’t need an anchor there and it reduces my flexibility. 21/20 also dodges 55, but turns their 11 into a joker. 11/10 allows their 55 to point on me there. 16/15 walks into a hit from their 55, but at least I get some return shots.

There can be more important things to worry about than having a slightly better position after a 35-1 shot. But with them now having two on the roof, there’s not much else to worry about. Both 11/10 and 16/15 are flexible and diversified in the outfield. So I’ll go with 16/15.



USBGF Members: 33 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 175
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aaBa-D-B-a-bCa----bBbbb-B:0:0:-1:00:2:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-08-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---Bb-D-Ba--dD-----bBbbb-A:0:0:1:41:2:3:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout1Bar/20eq: -0.210
Player:
Opponent:
44.74% (G:9.88% B:0.31%)
55.26% (G:11.97% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.219...-0.200) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/24 13/9* eq: -0.236 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
45.43% (G:10.75% B:0.38%)
54.57% (G:16.84% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.247...-0.225) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] b/24 13/9*
[10] b/20


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20

Neil has the much stronger board so even though we are behind in the race, we do not want to get into a blot hitting contest with bar/24 13/9*. We should be patient and wait until our position improves and just play bar/20.



Neil Kazaross: 21 b/24 13/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-Bb-D-BA--cCa----bBbbbA-:0:0:1:64:2:3:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---Bb-D-Ba--dD--a--cB-bb-A:0:0:1:31:2:3:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/21eq: -0.120
Player:
Opponent:
47.31% (G:10.86% B:0.44%)
52.69% (G:12.80% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.130...-0.109) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 6/3eq: -0.196 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
45.30% (G:11.22% B:0.40%)
54.70% (G:13.88% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.205...-0.186) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] b/21
[ 4] b/24 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21

We should simply play bar/21 here, as plays like 6/3 put a checker behind Neil’s anchor which we do not want to do. 13/10 leaves a double shot so bar/21 is the play, as Neil only has eight checkers in the zone.



Neil Kazaross: 52 9/4* 6/4


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---Bb-D-Ba--dD-----bBbbb-A:0:0:1:41:2:3:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--a-E-CA-adD-----cB-bb--:0:0:1:53:2:3:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: +0.304
Player:
Opponent:
56.63% (G:17.38% B:0.90%)
43.37% (G:10.92% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.293...+0.315) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 9/4* eq: +0.221 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:
54.75% (G:16.91% B:0.97%)
45.25% (G:12.19% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.209...+0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 9/6eq: +0.204 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
54.84% (G:14.59% B:0.63%)
45.16% (G:10.79% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.193...+0.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] 8/3 6/3
[10] 13/10 9/4*
[ 4] 13/8 9/6



Neil Kazaross: 62 24/16*
USBGF Members: 32 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-Ba-D-Ba-adD-----cB-bb-A:0:0:-1:00:2:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 52.87% (G:13.07% B:0.35%) 53.02% (G:13.38% B:0.39%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 47.13% (G:12.87% B:0.49%) 46.98% (G:12.96% B:0.58%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.068 +0.162
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.106±0.011 (+0.094..+0.117)
     Double/Take:-0.262 (-0.368)±0.021 (-0.284..-0.241)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.894)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 34 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

At best I am a slight favorite. If I cubed this for money, I’d get beavered. With the USBGF Members holding my 5 point and having no more blots open and me having almost nothing to close a 4th point, I am far from a cube. If they continue to dance a for a couple more rolls, then maybe I can cube.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-Ba-D-Ba-adD-----cB-bb-A:0:0:-1:53:2:3:0:11:10
to play 53

1.Rollout116/11 14/11eq: +0.099
Player:
Opponent:
52.69% (G:13.32% B:0.50%)
47.31% (G:13.25% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.094...+0.104) - [87.4%]
Duration: 13 hours 58 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 14/9eq: +0.095 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
52.15% (G:13.02% B:0.47%)
47.85% (G:11.42% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.091...+0.100) - [12.6%]
Duration: 13 hours 44 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 14/9.

I find two reasonable choices. I can make the 11 point, or I can anchor and play 14/9, which duplicates 4’s and aims a builder at an inside point I really want.

The 11 point has some advantages in that I currently have no points in my outfield and it gives them a bad 65. The problem with it is that it can be hard to clear later and that it doesn’t aim at any open points in my board.

Anchoring doesn’t seem critical now, but as the turns go by, the chances to get jokered and blitz sans anchor mount up. After looking at things in detail for quite a while I have a bit of a preference to anchor.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=---Bb-D-Ba--dD--a--cB-bb-A:0:0:1:31:2:3:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--a-E-CA--dD-----caAbbA-:0:0:1:41:2:3:0:11:10
to play 41

1.xgRollout121/20* 13/9eq: +0.365
Player:
Opponent:
58.62% (G:17.77% B:1.03%)
41.38% (G:12.32% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.352...+0.377) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
2.playedRollout124/20* 21/20eq: +0.319 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
57.10% (G:16.82% B:0.83%)
42.90% (G:10.78% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.307...+0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
3.Rollout19/5 6/5eq: +0.249 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
56.19% (G:18.17% B:1.16%)
43.81% (G:15.70% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.238...+0.260) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
4.Rollout121/20* 8/4* eq: +0.238 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:
55.22% (G:19.56% B:1.71%)
44.78% (G:15.62% B:1.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.223...+0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 24/20* 21/20
[ 6] 21/20* 13/9
[ 2] 21/20* 8/4*
[ 1] 9/5 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 174
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=ab--a-E-CA--dD-----cB-bb--:0:0:-1:65:2:3:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout1Bar/14eq: -0.518
Player:
Opponent:
38.59% (G:9.03% B:0.38%)
61.41% (G:19.41% B:1.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.523...-0.513) - [99.9%]
Duration: 11 hours 37 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 21/15eq: -0.529 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
38.62% (G:9.11% B:0.36%)
61.38% (G:19.85% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.534...-0.525) - [0.1%]
Duration: 11 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 24/18eq: -0.534 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
38.67% (G:9.44% B:0.38%)
61.33% (G:21.80% B:1.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.539...-0.529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 50 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.535 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
38.18% (G:10.08% B:0.42%)
61.82% (G:20.64% B:1.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.540...-0.530) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 27 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/14.

There are two plans here. 1) is to try to stay out of serious immediate trouble so that means B/14. 2) is to try to anchor so that means B/20 13/7. Usually when faced with these decisions I’ve tried to avoid immediate disasters, sometimes failing to make the best play.

B/14 duplicates 2’s and 9’s and leaves them quite a few non-constructive 1’s since they cannot play an ace from their two back points.

B/20 13/7 duplicates 2’s as well but leaves me far more vulnerable. However, if I get pointed on and roll a 6 from the bar, that 6, assuming I enter, can make my bar point. (After, B/14 the 6 can safety 14/8.) However, if I get attacked and don’t respond well, I will be in real trouble and facing a cube.

I’ll follow my usual style here and wimp with B/14.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--a-E-CA-adD-----cB-bb--:0:0:1:53:2:3:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---b-d-ab-AA:0:0:1:51:2:3:0:11:10
to play 51

1.Rollout1Bar/20 6/5eq: -0.351
Player:
Opponent:
43.47% (G:11.47% B:0.66%)
56.53% (G:24.28% B:2.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.363...-0.338) - [99.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/20 24/23eq: -0.375 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
43.00% (G:11.23% B:0.71%)
57.00% (G:23.10% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.388...-0.362) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
3.xgRollout1Bar/24 13/8eq: -0.382 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
42.02% (G:12.17% B:0.58%)
57.98% (G:20.16% B:1.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.395...-0.370) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/20 9/8eq: -0.401 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
41.95% (G:10.32% B:0.55%)
58.05% (G:21.97% B:0.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.413...-0.390) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] b/20 24/23
[10] b/24 13/8
[10] b/20 9/8
[ 7] b/20 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20 24/23

This is tricky. We do not want to enter on the 24 point as we would like to get an advanced anchor here. So, Bar/20 for the 5.

How do we play the 1? My five second answer would have been 24/23 but looking at it I really like 6/5 duplicating Neil’s 4’s. I would not argue with a partner in a consulting match, and here it would depend on my mood. I will go with Bar/20 24/23 as it was my gut instinct. This also works well as it freezes Neil’s striped 8 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---b-dAabA--:0:0:-1:61:2:3:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout18/2* 6/5* eq: +0.050
Player:
Opponent:
50.97% (G:21.04% B:1.20%)
49.03% (G:16.38% B:1.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.036...+0.064) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 6/5* eq: +0.008 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
50.02% (G:17.87% B:1.08%)
49.98% (G:15.80% B:1.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.005...+0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
3.Rollout124/18 4/3eq: -0.035 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
49.18% (G:13.68% B:0.69%)
50.82% (G:14.53% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.046...-0.024) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes
4.Rollout113/6eq: -0.043 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
48.10% (G:16.00% B:0.83%)
51.90% (G:13.53% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.053...-0.032) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2* 6/5*.

This is a poor but interesting roll. I think I am supposed to attack and use my stronger board and take advantage of the fact that they have no new points yet. Playing safe with something like 24/18 4/3 seems rather passive.

So I hit 6/5*, and there’s two choices for my 6. 13/7 brings down a builder and the wild 8/2* which can lead to a quick win or to me hoping to make a backgame. Looking at all their replies I slightly prefer 8/2*. They miss with 8 rolls and then I am doing very well. They double hit me with 10 rolls and then I will need to enter and establish a second anchor quickly. Quite a few of their rolls hit me with one checker but dance with the other and then I can hope to enter and make a 3 point board and then I will be in OK shape.

In for a penny, in for a pound.



USBGF Members: 41 b/24 b/21*
Neil Kazaross: 64 b/21 8/2


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 154
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b--a-E-CA--dD-----caAbbA-:0:0:1:41:2:3:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-08-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d--b-B-:0:0:1:43:2:3:0:11:10
to play 43

1.xgRollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.201
Player:
Opponent:
45.78% (G:13.81% B:0.64%)
54.22% (G:18.12% B:1.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.207...-0.196) - [98.7%]
Duration: 12 hours 50 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 13/9eq: -0.210 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
45.86% (G:12.45% B:0.58%)
54.14% (G:17.95% B:1.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.215...-0.205) - [1.3%]
Duration: 12 hours 59 minutes
3.Rollout224/21 24/20eq: -0.230 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
45.59% (G:11.35% B:0.53%)
54.41% (G:17.92% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.241...-0.219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
4.Rollout224/20 13/10eq: -0.231 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
45.61% (G:12.09% B:0.60%)
54.39% (G:17.96% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.242...-0.219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 24/21 13/9
[ 9] 13/10 13/9
[ 7] 24/20 13/10
[ 1] 24/21 24/20


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

For Money, DMP, Gammon Save and Gammon Go, the correct reply after 53 8/3 6/3 then 43 is 13/10 13/9. For money it is right by 2 or 3 millipoints. But that is if you are using Jacoby. In New Zealand, Jacoby is not used for money play, so you will find out that the play at the top by 2 millipoints becomes 24/21 13/9. In XG, uncheck Jacoby and you will see this, and you will see that I did the rollouts.

Any rolls that are separated by only 2 or 3 millipoints are effectively equal. I would play 13/10 13/9 here, especially as we want to increase the volatility against Neil. I suspect at this score, that 24/21 13/9 may be right by a couple of millipoints, but even if you showed me the rollout and it was correct, I would still bring 2 checkers down from the midpoint. I am more used to playing this as a response and as an opening roll.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 159
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---b-d-Ab-A-:0:0:-1:63:2:3:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/4* eq: +0.137
Player:
Opponent:
52.44% (G:18.52% B:1.12%)
47.56% (G:13.52% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.124...+0.149) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout124/15eq: +0.022 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
50.52% (G:13.71% B:0.65%)
49.48% (G:14.01% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.012...+0.033) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31549216
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/4*.

I am happy to attack 13/4* just like I would after an opening 43 24/21 13/9 play. In comparison to the opening position, a 33 response for them becomes awful rather than a joker.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 3
pip: 150
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---b-d-ab-AA:0:0:1:51:2:3:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10