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is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 121 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 118 score: 7 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=---BBBCB---AbBbb-d-b--c--A:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 61 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | Bar/24 11/5 | eq: +0.042 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | Bar/24 7/1 | eq: +0.008 (-0.035) | |||

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3. | Rollout^{1} | Bar/18 | eq: -0.001 (-0.043) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 78163301 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

`USBGF Members vote:`

[19] **b/24 11/5**

[14] b/18

teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email. |

**Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 11/5**

After the roll we will be ahead by 10 pips. After we enter on the 24 point we should play safe with 11/5 rather than 24/18 which comes out to 4 builders aimed at us.

is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 121 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 111 score: 7 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=---BBCCB----bBbb-d-b--c-A-:1:-1:-1:53:7:9:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 53 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 10/5 8/5 | eq: -0.007 | |||

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2. | Rollout^{1} | 13/10 13/8 | eq: -0.031 (-0.023) | |||

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^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 78163301 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 10/5 8/5.**

This is a hard choice since losing a gammon means losing the match! Therefore, making my 5 point isn’t automatic. But if I don’t make it, then I am not sure that I am even a game favorite, as I am down 2 pips and they are on roll and my containment chances are then shaky. Also plays that don’t make my 5 point leave me somewhat awkward and I could still roll something to blot and then maybe lose a gammon.

However, 3 shots may be too many. I think I get gammoned about half the time when I am hit or about 4% extra overall. At a gammon go score like this, my gammon cost is 1 as the added cost of losing a gammon is the same equity as the difference between winning and losing the game. So do I think that making my 5 point adds as much or more than 4% to my winning chances vs wimping? I think it probably does since I should be a definite favorite after making that point, as now I have real chances to contain their straggler.

is Neil Kazaross score: 9 pip: 113 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 111 score: 7 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=---BBCCB----bBba-c-bb-c-A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 32 |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10