USBGF OLM 2018-04-25

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBBBA-----A---A-----cfA-:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 70.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.01% (G:6.46% B:0.35%) 29.95% (G:6.61% B:0.65%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.326 +0.662
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.703±0.006 (+0.697..+0.709)
     Redouble/Take:+0.478 (-0.225)±0.007 (+0.471..+0.485)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.297)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73133427
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] No Redouble
[19] Redouble


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Redouble

We cover with 18 numbers (6’s + 55) so we miss with 18 numbers. On those 18 numbers or 50% of the time, we get hit 31% of the time, so that is 50% x 30% = 15% winning chances (slightly more as we have used 30% rather than 31% for easy of calculation). If we get hit, Neil could win a Gammon here. If he hits and is unlikely to win a gammon then we could be looking at an 8 cube.

Now suppose we do cover. With our spares in the best position (one each on the 4, 5 and 6 points), Neil will win 16.5% of the time with a gap on his 1 point (reference positions are useful). Therefore, he must win a greater % than that even if we cover due to our checker on our 1 point.

Put the above 2 scenarios together and I would not be doubling or Redoubling here.


Steve Sax recommends: No Redouble

One thing we never want to do is to double or re-double if we have no market losers. An exception for that would be if you got a very strong read that your opponent is going to pass.

Barring that in this position even if we gave us a 42 to cover and close the board, it would only be the barest of passes as it rolls out to 1.009.

That’s efficient enough for me.

However, how do we know it’s only a bare pass as this isn’t your typical “hit checker” reference position.

There is a baseline reference position that you need to know to assist you in knowing the correct cube action in these types of positions.

That position is having one checker on the bar, five checkers off, six on our ace and three on our deuce. Our opponent has a closed board with spares on the six, five and four point. That is a very strong redouble and a bare take for money.

However additional skills will be needed to interpolate this reference position into the position in question today. What we need to do is to think about the differences between the reference position and the position in question and how they impact you in a positive and negative way.

(1) The first major difference is the fact that our board isn’t closed yet. That’s the biggest factor even more than the score. Half of our numbers close the board but that means that half of them don’t.

So after we don’t cover (and they won’t lift), Neil will hit 11/36 times. So a little less than 1/6 times, Neil will be in and we will be on the bar with one or more checkers. Not a position we want to arrive at especially having given up the cube.

(2) The score of the match is another factor to consider. The fact that we lead in the match generally means we should be more conservative in giving up the cube and this case is no exception.

(3) We have a piece out of play on our one point. Even if we close the board and get our two spare checkers to the six and five points, the checker on the ace point might not be efficiently borne off which will give Neil extra chances to race around the board if we have to break a point sooner than we want to.

(4) What we do have in our favor is that Neil has a gap on his one point and nine checkers behind that gap. That is a huge disadvantage should we close the board, because we rate to get a couple of checkers off before having to open a point in our board (most often the six point).

Given that, even if Neil comes in on the first roll, we will be on roll and probably be off in seven rolls. If Neil comes in with let’s say 63, he will be off in seven rolls, so even if Neil comes in on the first roll he will be an underdog and if he doesn’t come in for one, two or three additional shakes his winning chances diminish rapidly.

This is partly because Neil’s board is weak, which means that we can bear off rather aggressively. In retrospect, we might break our board when bearing off by breaking the five or four point, taking a checker off and leaving a gap.

That might not seem like optimal bear off strategy, but it does help to contain Neil a bit longer and if Neil does come in, he will have borne off an additional checker making his winning chances even more slim.

Having gone through all this analysis, there are so many variables that it’s an unreasonable goal to be responsible to know all the possible reference positions.

You’ll simply have to weigh the pros and cons and make an educated guess what’s right to do.

That may not be a satisfactory answer but it gets us closer to the correct decision than had we no knowledge of the baseline reference position.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBBBA-----A---A-----cfA-:1:1:1:43:2:1:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 4/26 1100p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-04-24

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBBBA-----A-------A-cfA-:1:1:1:11:2:1:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[42] 20/16
[ 4] 20/17 12/11
[ 1] 12/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 20/16

In this type of position where we have slotted and our opponent has a weak board then ‘Leave the slot and maximise the covers’. Here that means playing 20/16 gives us 18 covers (17 sixes + 55).



Neil Kazaross: 54 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBBBA-----A---A-----cfA-:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Wed 4/25 1100p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-04-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 26
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 102
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB-----AA-------a-cfB-:1:1:1:54:2:1:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20* 11/6eq: +0.257
Player:
Opponent:
57.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.44% (G:17.32% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.250...+0.263) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds
2.Rollout124/20* 20/15eq: +0.218 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
54.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.04% (G:14.83% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.211...+0.224) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds
3.Rollout124/19 24/20* eq: +0.171 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
53.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
46.71% (G:15.29% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.165...+0.177) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8256227
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/20* 11/6
[10] 24/20*/15
[ 5] 24/20* 24/19


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

After we hit 24/20*, do we slot 11/6 or continue 20/15 ?

I like the slot. I know from a reference position that if we have a 5 point board with spares on our 6, 5 and 4 points, that we win 21.5% when Neil has 5 checkers off and a closed board but only 16.5% with a gap on his 1 point. We will never get this as we have a spare on our 1 point so maybe Neil will win 18% of the time. This is enough to give him a tough double if we make our 6 point and keep our checkers high. This represents a way that we could win, but 20/15 needs us to get way more lucky to make the 6 point and get the spares high, so I would go with the slot now.



Neil Kazaross: 32 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 46
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 93
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCBBBBA-----A-------A-cfA-:1:1:1:11:2:1:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 36
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB---------AA---c-cfB-:1:1:1:53:2:1:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout116/11 15/12eq: -1.111
Player:
Opponent:
14.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.45% (G:40.54% B:2.75%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.115...-1.107) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds
2.Rollout116/13 15/10eq: -1.145 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
13.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.40% (G:41.56% B:2.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.148...-1.141) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds
3.Rollout116/8eq: -1.148 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
13.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.55% (G:41.49% B:2.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.152...-1.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds
4.Rollout115/7eq: -1.162 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
13.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.91% (G:41.68% B:2.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.165...-1.159) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds
5.Rollout124/21 16/11eq: -1.203 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
14.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.01% (G:51.44% B:1.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.206...-1.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds
6.Rollout124/21 15/10eq: -1.210 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:
14.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.22% (G:51.63% B:1.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.214...-1.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 11 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8256227
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 16/11 15/12
[ 3] 24/21 16/11
[ 2] 15/7
[ 1] 16/13 15/10


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 16/11 15/12

We want our 6 point and will slot it if I get the chance. If we want to slot it, then we want to put both checkers within a direct range of it to be able to slot it with the most rolls, so we should play 16/11 15/12



Neil Kazaross: 65 5/0(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 26
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 102
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB-----AA-------a-cfB-:1:1:1:54:2:1:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sun 4/22 1030a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-04-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 39
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB---------A----c-dfC-:1:1:1:62:2:1:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout124/18 15/13eq: -1.175
Player:
Opponent:
14.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.34% (G:45.38% B:3.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-1.177...-1.173) - [68.5%]
Duration: 13 minutes 38 seconds
2.playedRollout124/16eq: -1.176 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
14.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.36% (G:45.39% B:3.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-1.177...-1.174) - [31.5%]
Duration: 12 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8256227
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 24/16
[17] 24/18 15/13
[ 1] 15/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 15/13

The most important thing here is to get the third checker on our 24 point off the 24 point by playing 24/18. This reduces our chances of getting Backgammoned.

After that, between 18/16 and 15/13 there will be not much difference; I do prefer 15/13 so that if we hit a checker, we have a checker close to where Neil will enter from the bar. But how we play the 2 is a minor issue.


Steve Sax recommends: 24/18 15/13

The six is straightforward (24/18) so why is the deuce any big deal at all?

Well, one of the primary choices in backgammon is to make numbers that are bad on one side of the board good in another part of the board.

For this reason, we should move 15/13 so that if we roll 44 on the following roll we, can slot our six-point.

If we had played 24/16 instead then 44 would cause us to either play a checker past the six point and waste pips in our effort to save the gammon, or we would have to play 16/8 15/7, causing some inefficiency in both in our attempt to save the gammon and win the game as it doesn’t allow us to slot our six point.

In truth, there’s a very small difference between both plays, but if someone could give me a reason why 24/16 is best, I would be interested in hearing why.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 39
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB---------AA---c-dfB-:1:1:-1:43:2:1:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout13/Offeq: +1.124
Player:
Opponent:
85.83% (G:40.32% B:2.72%)
14.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.121...+1.127) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout15/2eq: +1.033 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
84.26% (G:36.06% B:2.24%)
15.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.030...+1.037) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8256227
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 3/0.

The race for the gammon is close, so every checker I bear off helps. This should be more important than any double jeopardy issues from leaving 3 checkers on the 5 point. Also, by having more checkers off, I am more likely to survive being hit later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 36
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB---------AA---c-cfB-:1:1:1:53:2:1:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 54
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB----------a---dBeeB-:1:1:1:31:2:1:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout121/17eq: -1.027
Player:
Opponent:
17.04% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
82.96% (G:37.67% B:2.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.031...-1.022) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout15/1eq: -1.217 (-0.191)
Player:
Opponent:
9.97% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
90.03% (G:39.53% B:2.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.221...-1.214) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds
3.Rollout121/18 2/1eq: -1.228 (-0.202)
Player:
Opponent:
10.70% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
89.30% (G:41.80% B:3.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.233...-1.224) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout121/18 3/2eq: -1.233 (-0.206)
Player:
Opponent:
10.76% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
89.24% (G:42.36% B:3.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.236...-1.229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds
5.Rollout121/18 5/4eq: -1.237 (-0.211)
Player:
Opponent:
10.75% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
89.25% (G:42.55% B:3.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.241...-1.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 00 second
6.Rollout121/18 4/3eq: -1.240 (-0.213)
Player:
Opponent:
10.75% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
89.25% (G:42.94% B:3.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.244...-1.236) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 12 seconds
7.Rollout15/4 5/2eq: -1.254 (-0.227)
Player:
Opponent:
8.05% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
91.95% (G:38.83% B:2.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-1.257...-1.250) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40086916
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[46] 21/17
[ 2] 5/4 5/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/17

We have to keep a 5 point board, weakening it makes it too hard to win if we hit a blot. The 31 plays well by moving 21/17 as this also duplicates 1’s, so 21/17 for me.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 54
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 117
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB----------aA--dAeeB-:1:1:-1:54:2:1:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout19/4* 4/Offeq: +1.247
Player:
Opponent:
87.75% (G:46.33% B:3.90%)
12.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.242...+1.251) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds
2.Rollout19/Offeq: +1.140 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
87.75% (G:37.81% B:2.46%)
12.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.136...+1.144) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 44 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40086916
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/4*/off.

I am delighted to be able to pick and pass with this roll. This will increase my gammon chances, and if the hit checker cannot soon reenter on my 4 point, I may only have to leave a single shot if I later blot on my 5 point.



USBGF Members: 21 b/24 17/15
Neil Kazaross: 61 5/0 3/2


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 39
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB---------A----c-dfC-:1:1:1:62:2:1:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 129
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCBB-A--------b---dBedB-:1:1:1:62:2:1:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout121/15 3/1eq: -0.529
Player:
Opponent:
31.19% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
68.81% (G:24.96% B:1.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.535...-0.523) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 31 seconds
2.playedRollout17/1 3/1eq: -0.584 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
28.11% (G:0.95% B:0.02%)
71.89% (G:23.56% B:1.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.590...-0.579) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout124/18 3/1eq: -0.621 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
29.80% (G:1.93% B:0.05%)
70.20% (G:32.09% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.626...-0.615) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 16 seconds
4.Rollout121/19 21/15eq: -0.622 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
26.97% (G:1.35% B:0.03%)
73.03% (G:24.52% B:1.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.627...-0.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 43 seconds
5.Rollout121/13eq: -0.623 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
27.77% (G:1.53% B:0.05%)
72.23% (G:25.93% B:1.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.628...-0.617) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 55 seconds
6.Rollout121/19 7/1eq: -0.644 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
28.68% (G:2.48% B:0.06%)
71.32% (G:30.13% B:2.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.650...-0.637) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40086916
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 7/1 3/1
[18] 21/15 3/1
[ 1] 21/19 21/15
[ 1] 21/13
[ 1] 21/19 7/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 21/15 3/1

Our semi-dead checker on our 3 point belongs on our 1 point. This brings it back to life.

Next, we want to make a 6 point board so the last thing we want to do is play 7/1 creating a truly dead (there is no returning from the dead being the third checker on the 1 point) checker. That means we have to play 21/15, giving Neil 51, 52 and 21 as pick and pass numbers and 55 and 11 as great numbers. From the pick and pass numbers, we do have 54 and 43 as return shots from the bar — and a 5 point board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB----------b---dBedB-:1:1:-1:61:2:1:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout19/2eq: +0.425
Player:
Opponent:
66.93% (G:20.20% B:1.07%)
33.07% (G:0.96% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.423...+0.427) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout19/8 9/3eq: +0.414 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
66.74% (G:19.74% B:0.98%)
33.26% (G:1.05% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.412...+0.417) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40086916
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/2.

When you don’t want to be hit, the first thing to look at is to leave fewer shots. If I play 9/8 9/3, I am hit with 14 4’s (11 blocked) plus 61 and 52 to total 18 shots. If I play 9/2, all 15 5’s hit me as none are blocked but then as 53 is duplicated and 44 and 22 blocked, only 62 hits me. So that means 17 shots.

9/2 leaves 1 fewer shot, and while it looks to be slightly harder to clean up next turn, I suspect that the time to worry about next turn is next turn, as most rolls play OK when missed.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 54
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CBBBB----------a---dBeeB-:1:1:1:31:2:1:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCAA--------b--bcBecB-:1:1:1:52:2:1:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout17/2 5/3eq: -0.628
Player:
Opponent:
28.37% (G:1.31% B:0.04%)
71.63% (G:27.55% B:2.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.635...-0.622) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 25 seconds
2.playedRollout16/1 5/3eq: -0.650 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
27.89% (G:1.03% B:0.03%)
72.11% (G:28.07% B:2.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.656...-0.644) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout16/1 3/1eq: -0.694 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
26.83% (G:0.67% B:0.01%)
73.17% (G:29.21% B:2.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.700...-0.688) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 18 seconds
4.Rollout17/2 6/4eq: -0.710 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
24.11% (G:1.08% B:0.03%)
75.89% (G:25.89% B:1.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.715...-0.704) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 41 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 6/1 5/3
[ 3] 7/2 6/4
[ 2] 7/2 5/3
[ 2] 7/5 6/1
[ 1] 7/1
[ 1] 6/1 3/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1 5/3

We want the strongest board we can get so, so we should move 6/1 then I like 5/3 so that 6’s and 2’s will give us a 5 point board. There are arguments for 7/2 5/3 but if I have to put checkers to my 1 point eventually, then I want those checkers to be covering a blot and making a 5 point board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 129
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCBB-A--------b--bcBecB-:1:1:-1:41:2:1:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/5 6/2eq: +0.585
Player:
Opponent:
71.66% (G:23.90% B:1.47%)
28.34% (G:1.38% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.579...+0.590) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout19/8 9/5eq: +0.551 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
69.40% (G:25.89% B:1.96%)
30.60% (G:1.29% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.544...+0.557) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 17 seconds
3.Rollout19/5 3/2eq: +0.522 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
68.13% (G:26.03% B:2.13%)
31.87% (G:1.45% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.516...+0.528) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 40086916
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 6/2.

This is a difficult choice, but 15 shots is a lot, and I am far from home free if missed. But if I wait and clear the 6 point, I may have serious problems against a 5 point board next turn. But two more things to consider are: (1) I need to clear my 6 point at some point and (2) Perhaps they will roll something bad and have to break something.

I’ll wimp it with 6/5 6/2.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 129
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABCBB-A--------b---dBedB-:1:1:1:62:2:1:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BB-CBAA-------bc-bcBbcB-:1:1:1:42:2:1:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.532
Player:
Opponent:
30.00% (G:2.05% B:0.06%)
70.00% (G:22.85% B:1.76%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.534...-0.529) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout18/4 7/5eq: -0.541 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
29.48% (G:1.89% B:0.06%)
70.52% (G:22.64% B:1.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.543...-0.539) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
3.Rollout28/4 5/3eq: -0.564 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
29.09% (G:1.85% B:0.06%)
70.91% (G:23.61% B:1.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.569...-0.559) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 03 seconds
4.Rollout28/6 5/1eq: -0.578 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
28.57% (G:1.62% B:0.04%)
71.43% (G:23.62% B:1.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.583...-0.573) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 8/4 6/4
[10] 8/4 7/5
[ 8] 8/4 5/3
[ 6] 8/6 5/1
[ 2] 5/1 3/1
[ 1] 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4 6/4

There are only 2 real choices here 8/4 7/5 or 8/4 6/4. As both involved 8/4, over the board I would play 8/4 then try to decide how to play the 2.

We know we want to keep my anchors as long as possible, so saving a 6 on our side of the board looks like the way to go, so I think we should break the 6 point and play 6/4. I also hate creating stacks like the ones 7/5 would create.



Neil Kazaross: 8/3(3)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 136
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBCAA--------b--bcBecB-:1:1:1:52:2:1:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 88
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BB-BBAA---A---cc-bcBbbB-:1:1:1:52:2:1:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout112/7 6/4eq: -0.578
Player:
Opponent:
28.30% (G:1.86% B:0.06%)
71.70% (G:23.34% B:1.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.580...-0.576) - [52.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes
2.playedRollout112/5eq: -0.578 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
27.94% (G:1.83% B:0.06%)
72.06% (G:22.63% B:1.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.580...-0.576) - [47.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
3.Rollout212/7 8/6eq: -0.599 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
27.33% (G:1.55% B:0.04%)
72.67% (G:23.18% B:1.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.605...-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 12/5
[ 7] 12/7 8/6
[ 1] 8/3 7/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 12/5

We really want and need our 4 point in order to contain the checker we will hopefully hit. Therefore I would play 12/5 maximizing the number of builders aimed at it.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 88
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BB-CBAA-------cc-bcBbbB-:1:1:-1:43:2:1:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout19/2eq: +0.558
Player:
Opponent:
71.61% (G:21.73% B:1.58%)
28.39% (G:1.92% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.556...+0.560) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
2.Rollout19/5 8/5eq: +0.554 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
71.37% (G:22.25% B:1.66%)
28.63% (G:2.09% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.551...+0.556) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/2.

Two choices here, as I can either make a 5 stack on my 5 point or play 9/2. I’ve had some bad results making big stacks during the bearin when there’s this much contact and although placing a checker on the 2 point is not a good spot, I slightly prefer 9/2, as big stacks can be really inflexible.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 81
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BB-CBAA-------bc-bcBbcB-:1:1:1:42:2:1:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 100
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BA--BBB---B-b-bc-cbBbaB-:1:1:1:53:2:1:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout18/3 7/4eq: -0.552
Player:
Opponent:
28.92% (G:2.18% B:0.07%)
71.08% (G:22.57% B:1.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.554...-0.550) - [97.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
2.Rollout112/9 8/3eq: -0.555 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
28.97% (G:2.35% B:0.08%)
71.03% (G:23.06% B:1.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.558...-0.553) - [2.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
3.playedRollout18/5 8/3eq: -0.558 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
28.97% (G:2.37% B:0.08%)
71.03% (G:23.42% B:1.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.561...-0.556) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
4.Rollout212/7 8/5eq: -0.580 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
28.24% (G:2.10% B:0.07%)
71.76% (G:23.44% B:1.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.587...-0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 38 seconds
5.Rollout212/4eq: -0.585 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
27.96% (G:1.93% B:0.07%)
72.04% (G:23.10% B:1.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.591...-0.579) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 27 seconds
6.Rollout212/9 12/7eq: -0.598 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
27.72% (G:2.01% B:0.07%)
72.28% (G:23.66% B:2.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.603...-0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 8/5 8/3
[13] 12/9 8/3
[ 2] 12/9 12/7
[ 2] 8/3 7/4
[ 1] 24/21 8/3
[ 1] 21/13


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/3 7/4

We rolled a 5, so we need to cover the blot on our 3 point with 8/3.

Next, the quickest way to make another point is to slot the point we want to make. The best point is the 5 point with 8/5, unfortunately this leaves only 2’s as direct covers. If I slot the 4 point with 7/4, we can cover with direct 4’s and 3’s. As we could be getting a shot in a couple of turns, I will go with 8/3 7/4 to maximise our covers.


Steve Sax recommends: 8/3 7/4

We’re certainly going to play 8/3 to make our three point, but how to play the three?

I personally like 7/4 with the three because it slots an inside point and gives us extra covers to fill that point in.

And while we would rather make the five point than the four point at this time, the mere fact that we already have two deep points makes making the higher point less of a priority.

A question also might be asked if leaving all those blots will impair our ability to contain Neil, and while that is true, note that most of Neil’s numbers should consolidate his position by either making the two point or breaking the 11 point.

But more importantly since we are hard pressed at this time to contain Neil, he can be a little more liberal in how he plays his checkers. It’s a bit of a conundrum but to be honest, we should really shore up our home board position before thinking about hitting and attempting to contain Neil.

And while our timing isn’t great, it’s not too bad either so as Neil is down to bringing in the nine and eight points, we should have filled in the four point and probably have slotted or even make the five point by that time.

Other plays such as slotting the five or not even slotting and playing 12/9 with the three are reasonable and close in equity so it’s not a big deal but 8/3 7/4 is the play I slightly favor.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 100
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BB-ABB----B-b-bc-cbBbaB-:1:1:-1:31:2:1:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout16/2eq: +0.591
Player:
Opponent:
72.83% (G:21.90% B:1.86%)
27.17% (G:1.94% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.585...+0.596) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 3/2eq: +0.545 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
70.96% (G:22.69% B:1.93%)
29.04% (G:2.79% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.539...+0.551) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/2.

6/2 makes my 2 point and leaves no blots.



USBGF Members: 42 12/8 7/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 96
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BB-BBAA---A-b-bc-bbBbbB-:1:1:-1:62:2:1:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout111/9 11/5eq: +0.558
Player:
Opponent:
71.78% (G:21.40% B:1.56%)
28.22% (G:1.98% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.556...+0.560) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
2.xgRollout111/5 8/6eq: +0.551 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
70.56% (G:23.59% B:2.32%)
29.44% (G:2.51% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.549...+0.554) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout211/3eq: +0.486 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
69.03% (G:21.74% B:1.97%)
30.97% (G:2.92% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.480...+0.492) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/9 11/5.

Nothing fancy here, as the USBGF Members have a good 4 point board for the moment. So I prefer the blotless 11/9 11/5 vs. leaving 6 shots for the more flexible 11/5 8/6.

If they had just a 3 point board with a slotted point, I’d probably make the more flexible play since their chances to lose a gammon after hitting an indirect shot would be high due to many blots and just holding one point in my board. But here vs. a 4 point board, prudence seems clear.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 88
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 149
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BB-BBAA---A---cc-bcBbbB-:1:1:1:52:2:1:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 107
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 187
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BA--B-B----Bb-ccBcbBb-B-:1:1:1:66:2:1:0:11:10
to play 66

1.xgRollout118/12 18/6 13/7eq: -0.531
Player:
Opponent:
29.73% (G:2.62% B:0.10%)
70.27% (G:22.70% B:1.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.534...-0.529) - [98.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout118/6(2)eq: -0.535 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
29.48% (G:2.50% B:0.09%)
70.52% (G:22.54% B:1.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.537...-0.533) - [1.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
3.playedRollout118/12(2) 13/7(2)eq: -0.540 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
29.35% (G:2.65% B:0.09%)
70.65% (G:22.84% B:1.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.543...-0.538) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 14 minutes
4.Rollout218/6 13/7(2)eq: -0.573 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
30.58% (G:2.66% B:0.10%)
69.42% (G:28.53% B:2.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.580...-0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 36 seconds
5.Rollout218/12(2) 13/1eq: -0.649 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:
26.15% (G:1.66% B:0.04%)
73.85% (G:24.88% B:2.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.655...-0.642) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 55 seconds
6.Rollout218/12 18/6 8/2eq: -0.658 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:
25.86% (G:1.71% B:0.06%)
74.14% (G:25.00% B:1.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.664...-0.652) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 06 seconds
7.Rollout218/12(2) 13/7 8/2eq: -0.664 (-0.132)
Player:
Opponent:
25.65% (G:1.60% B:0.07%)
74.35% (G:24.93% B:1.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.669...-0.658) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 25 seconds
8.Rollout221/9(2)eq: -0.672 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:
24.61% (G:2.07% B:0.11%)
75.39% (G:24.27% B:2.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.679...-0.666) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 41 seconds
9.Rollout221/15(2) 13/7(2)eq: -0.684 (-0.153)
Player:
Opponent:
24.40% (G:2.00% B:0.07%)
75.60% (G:24.70% B:2.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.690...-0.678) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 31 seconds
10.Rollout218/6 13/1eq: -0.687 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:
27.72% (G:1.85% B:0.06%)
72.28% (G:31.18% B:3.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.694...-0.680) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 36 seconds
11.Rollout213/1(2)eq: -0.693 (-0.162)
Player:
Opponent:
26.43% (G:1.93% B:0.04%)
73.57% (G:29.23% B:2.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.700...-0.687) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 59 seconds
12.Rollout218/12 13/7 13/1eq: -0.699 (-0.168)
Player:
Opponent:
27.81% (G:1.85% B:0.05%)
72.19% (G:32.18% B:3.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.706...-0.691) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 13 seconds
13.Rollout221/15 21/3eq: -0.712 (-0.181)
Player:
Opponent:
24.76% (G:1.84% B:0.08%)
75.24% (G:27.16% B:2.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.718...-0.706) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 35 seconds
14.Rollout218/6 13/7 8/2eq: -0.715 (-0.183)
Player:
Opponent:
26.53% (G:1.62% B:0.04%)
73.47% (G:31.25% B:2.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.721...-0.709) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 32 seconds
15.Rollout218/12 13/7(2) 8/2eq: -0.723 (-0.191)
Player:
Opponent:
26.48% (G:1.78% B:0.06%)
73.52% (G:31.61% B:3.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.729...-0.716) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 44 seconds
16.Rollout221/15 21/9 13/7eq: -0.730 (-0.198)
Player:
Opponent:
24.22% (G:1.74% B:0.08%)
75.78% (G:27.75% B:2.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.736...-0.723) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 06 seconds
17.Rollout213/7 13/1 8/2eq: -0.744 (-0.213)
Player:
Opponent:
25.07% (G:1.61% B:0.04%)
74.93% (G:30.44% B:2.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.750...-0.737) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 48 seconds
18.Rollout221/3 13/7eq: -0.751 (-0.220)
Player:
Opponent:
24.63% (G:1.90% B:0.06%)
75.37% (G:30.26% B:3.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.758...-0.745) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 43 seconds
19.Rollout224/12 13/7(2)eq: -0.752 (-0.221)
Player:
Opponent:
21.85% (G:2.51% B:0.08%)
78.15% (G:27.06% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.758...-0.747) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 13 seconds
20.Rollout224/6 13/7eq: -0.753 (-0.222)
Player:
Opponent:
22.00% (G:2.63% B:0.08%)
78.00% (G:27.37% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.759...-0.747) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 43 seconds
21.Rollout221/9 13/7(2)eq: -0.767 (-0.236)
Player:
Opponent:
24.80% (G:2.15% B:0.12%)
75.20% (G:31.91% B:3.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.773...-0.761) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 43 seconds
22.Rollout218/12(2) 8/2(2)eq: -0.769 (-0.238)
Player:
Opponent:
22.55% (G:0.95% B:0.03%)
77.45% (G:27.01% B:2.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.775...-0.763) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 18 seconds
23.Rollout224/18 24/12 13/7eq: -0.782 (-0.251)
Player:
Opponent:
17.09% (G:1.46% B:0.05%)
82.91% (G:18.07% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.786...-0.778) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 48 seconds
24.Rollout224/12(2)eq: -0.782 (-0.251)
Player:
Opponent:
17.21% (G:1.46% B:0.05%)
82.79% (G:18.54% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.787...-0.778) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 18/12(2) 13/7(2)
[10] 18/12 18/6 13/7
[ 5] 13/1(2)
[ 4] 21/15(2) 13/7(2)
[ 2] 18/6 13/7(2)
[ 2] 24/12(2)
[ 1] 24/18(2) 13/7(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 18/12 18/6 13/7

I want to make my points in order, so I need to get diversified checkers into the zone. So I would play 18/12 18/6 13/7. This leaves no shots, and gives us lots of point making potential.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 107
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BA--BBB---B-b-cc-cbBb-B-:1:1:-1:61:2:1:0:11:10
to play 61

1.xgRollout18/2 3/2eq: +0.552
Player:
Opponent:
71.10% (G:23.04% B:1.82%)
28.90% (G:2.67% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.550...+0.555) - [99.8%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
2.playedRollout19/2eq: +0.547 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
71.11% (G:22.53% B:1.77%)
28.89% (G:2.56% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.545...+0.550) - [0.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout28/2 6/5eq: +0.542 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
70.71% (G:22.94% B:1.79%)
29.29% (G:2.62% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.535...+0.548) - [0.1%]
Duration: 28 minutes 45 seconds
4.Rollout211/5 9/8eq: +0.523 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
70.16% (G:22.48% B:1.75%)
29.84% (G:2.67% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.516...+0.529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 28 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 9/2.

If I play 11/5 9/8, I am rather stacked and may have issues with my open 2 point later when my opp’s board is stronger. So I will play 8/2 and then look for the best ace. 9/8 looks more natural than 6/5.

There’s a 3rd ace I can play, and that is 3/2 giving me more builders to make my 3 point. But this has a bit more downside when it doesn’t work and the USBGF Members’ 22 is good for them.

I’ll go with the simple slot 9/2.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 100
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BA--BBB---B-b-bc-cbBbaB-:1:1:1:53:2:1:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 205
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-aaB-C---bB--ca-cbBb-CA:1:1:1:54:2:1:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 8/3eq: -0.569
Player:
Opponent:
32.71% (G:4.62% B:0.29%)
67.29% (G:33.46% B:3.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.578...-0.561) - [99.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: -0.588 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
32.64% (G:4.27% B:0.23%)
67.36% (G:34.92% B:4.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.599...-0.578) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] b/21 8/3
[ 7] b/21 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 8/3

First, I like to classify what sort of game I am playing. This is what I would call a back game where my opponent does not have a prime. This means that we will be easily able to recirculate our checkers.

Kit Woolsey wrote an article a long time ago called “Lifeline of a Backgame.” The article was all about how important it was for timing to keep your midpoint or a point close to your midpoint. So here there is no way we should give up our midpoint, so the only move available is 8/3.


Steve Sax recommends: b/21 8/3

We don’t have a pleasant five, however I would rather play 8/3 than give up the midpoint, as we at least maintain some semblance of outfield control.

It will be some bit of work to get spare checkers on the 24 and 21 points out to the midpoint and then to our eight or six points, however at the moment that’s the best we have to hope for.

We don’t have to fight too hard to contain Neil here with the blot and gap in his board, but we can try to slowly leak checkers out of Neil’s home to develop our own home board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 196
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BAaaB-B---bB--ca-cbCb-C-:1:1:-1:63:2:1:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout120/11eq: +0.513
Player:
Opponent:
66.20% (G:31.62% B:3.48%)
33.80% (G:5.16% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.509...+0.517) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout121/15 8/5eq: +0.497 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
65.21% (G:31.89% B:3.75%)
34.79% (G:4.92% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.493...+0.501) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 17 minutes
3.Rollout120/14 8/5eq: +0.495 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
64.91% (G:32.44% B:3.86%)
35.09% (G:4.89% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.491...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 29 minutes
4.Rollout121/18 20/14eq: +0.491 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
65.58% (G:31.62% B:3.67%)
34.42% (G:6.36% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.487...+0.495) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 12 minutes
5.Rollout221/18 8/2eq: +0.484 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
64.74% (G:32.71% B:3.95%)
35.26% (G:6.55% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.474...+0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
6.Rollout220/14 9/6eq: +0.462 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
64.28% (G:31.41% B:3.51%)
35.72% (G:5.88% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.453...+0.470) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
7.Rollout221/15 9/6eq: +0.459 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
64.29% (G:31.33% B:3.58%)
35.71% (G:5.90% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.450...+0.469) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/11.

Lots of plays here, but the first thing that comes to mind is 20/11, keeping my checkers in front of my opponents more forward anchor and hoping to build good blocking points, while their homeboard is a shambles that presents little threat if I am hit. Perhaps I can end up with a 5 prime soon if missed.

I don’t think 8/5 and hopping out a 6 is the best play here, as I want to make my 8 point. I also would like to make my 2 point but don’t think I should slot it and allow them to hit it with their spare on my ace point that needs to get moving.

20/11 seems clear to me.



USBGF Members: 63 24/18 21/18


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 187
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BAa-B-B---bBa-caBcbBb-B-:1:1:-1:55:2:1:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout121/11 13/8(2)eq: +0.419
Player:
Opponent:
63.27% (G:28.60% B:3.15%)
36.73% (G:3.38% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.416...+0.422) - [99.9%]
Duration: 4 hours 41 minutes
2.xgRollout121/16 13/8(2) 11/6eq: +0.412 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
62.63% (G:29.44% B:3.42%)
37.37% (G:3.88% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.408...+0.415) - [0.1%]
Duration: 4 hours 55 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/11 13/8(2).

This looks routine, although the USBGF Members will have reasonable timing for their 41 game. I should just run home. I see no reason to volunteer a shot, as I can blot on the 11 point next time if I cannot clear it safely.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 107
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 187
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BA--B-B----Bb-ccBcbBb-B-:1:1:1:66:2:1:0:11:10
to play 66

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 128
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 205
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--aB-C---cB--ca-cbBb-CA:1:1:1:62:2:1:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/17* eq: -0.465
Player:
Opponent:
34.73% (G:5.57% B:0.31%)
65.27% (G:29.59% B:2.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.474...-0.456) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 24/18eq: -0.499 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
35.85% (G:4.25% B:0.21%)
64.15% (G:33.91% B:4.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.509...-0.489) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] b/17*
[11] b/23 24/18


Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Steve Sax recommends: b/17*

Seems like a pretty simple decision for me. I hit and slow down Neil’s attempt to block us in. And while it’s true that since we have split anchors and being primed in isn’t that relevant, it does restrict our mobility to some extent.

With our deuce point made, the long term prospects of making a prime and blocking Neil in are remote, but regardless of whether we hit or not it will be our long term goal.

Thus, hitting at least gives us better chances of putting a piece back into play by escaping with tempo and attempting to get a piece free.

It doesn’t hurt too much that Neil has 5’s and 1’s to enter and hit so we have a good chance to free that back checker.

The alternative (bar/23 24/18) isn’t unreasonable and after a rollout was less than .05 wrong, but I just thought it gave Neil too much freedom to do what he wants to do, as Neil has 1’s, 2’s, 4’s and 6’s to hit.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 145
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 197
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-B--aB-C---cB--cA-cbBb-C-:1:1:-1:54:2:1:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 13/8* eq: +0.501
Player:
Opponent:
65.22% (G:32.41% B:3.84%)
34.78% (G:5.01% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.491...+0.510) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 20/15eq: +0.447 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
65.28% (G:28.52% B:2.82%)
34.72% (G:5.46% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.438...+0.456) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/16eq: +0.436 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
64.79% (G:28.83% B:2.88%)
35.21% (G:5.90% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.427...+0.445) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/20 9/5eq: +0.432 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
64.35% (G:28.67% B:2.80%)
35.65% (G:5.46% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.424...+0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/20 6/2eq: +0.427 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:
65.09% (G:27.15% B:2.42%)
34.91% (G:6.06% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.419...+0.435) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
6.Rollout1Bar/20 13/9eq: +0.421 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
64.37% (G:28.24% B:2.76%)
35.63% (G:5.67% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.413...+0.429) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/21 13/8*.

I found the hit/no hit decision to be difficult here! There’s a few things to notice. (1) I don’t really need an advanced anchor when my opponents have no offense. (2) By hitting, I only dislike their 44 return and their 11 and 21 making a 3rd point in my board. (3) If I don’t hit, I seriously doubt that they would give up my 4 point to make my 8 point. (4) Hitting should clearly win more gammons. (5) Hitting slots my 8 point with tempo and I’d be happy to make my 8 point, as then I’d block 4’s and 5’s and my opponents would have some awkward root numbers. (6) By hitting, I may end up with a 5 prime if I roll well, and that should bust their already tenuous timing.

It seems that I should hit, which goes against general principles of playing vs a backgame, but note, that my opps aren’t completely forced into a backgame if I don’t hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 205
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-aaB-C---bB--ca-cbBb-CA:1:1:1:54:2:1:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 186
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--Ba--C-C---cB--cb-d-Bb-C-:1:1:1:61:2:1:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout124/18 6/5eq: -0.346
Player:
Opponent:
36.98% (G:6.68% B:0.25%)
63.02% (G:25.61% B:2.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.354...-0.339) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 8/7eq: -0.369 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
36.43% (G:6.33% B:0.24%)
63.57% (G:25.52% B:2.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.377...-0.361) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 24/18eq: -0.402 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
34.88% (G:7.16% B:0.32%)
65.12% (G:26.91% B:1.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.410...-0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
4.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: -0.420 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
34.34% (G:6.30% B:0.23%)
65.66% (G:25.33% B:2.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.428...-0.412) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 24/18 6/5
[11] 24/18 24/23
[ 9] 13/7 8/7
[ 3] 24/18 8/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/18 6/5

We need to keep our midpoint, so we should play 24/18. The question then is how to play the 1. Over the board, I would play purely and try to build my board as quickly as possible with 6/5. If I am hit, my timing will improve and I may be able to upgrade my back anchor to another one.


Steve Sax recommends: 24/18 6/5

The six seems clear to me. The USBGF Members have two anchors in Neil’s board but the third checker on the 24 point isn’t doing us any favors.

Moving out to the 18 point gives us the opportunity to either escape that checker for home board development, making the 18 point, or getting hit and improving our timing. All are acceptable results.

As far as the ace is concerned, I slightly favor slotting the five point duplicating two’s although 8/7 does give us a slightly better checker distribution for development.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 179
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--Ba-AB-C---cB--cbAd-Bb-B-:1:1:-1:21:2:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout122/20* 8/7* eq: +0.403
Player:
Opponent:
62.45% (G:30.82% B:3.27%)
37.55% (G:5.75% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.394...+0.412) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
2.Rollout122/20* 9/8eq: +0.355 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
62.24% (G:27.49% B:2.50%)
37.76% (G:6.33% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.346...+0.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout19/7* 8/7eq: +0.341 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
62.68% (G:25.89% B:2.46%)
37.32% (G:7.56% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.332...+0.350) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
4.Rollout122/20* 6/5eq: +0.333 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
62.60% (G:25.05% B:2.10%)
37.40% (G:7.11% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.324...+0.341) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/20* 8/7*.

The routine play is to hit the checkers off of points my opponent would like to make, so that means 22/20* 8/7*. I am a bit concerned about breaking up my forward structure, but only a 44 joker from the roof hits back.

These checkers should be able to serve as builders for me to make my 5 point and then hopefully 2 point, pinning the USBGF Members into a 41 backgame while they have 6 checkers back and their 2 point made. Their 2 point is not good at all for an early backgame.



USBGF Members: 61 b/24
Neil Kazaross: 21 7/5 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 128
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 205
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B--aB-C---cB--ca-cbBb-CA:1:1:1:26:2:1:0:11:10
to play 26

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 192
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB---C-C--acB--bb-d--bACA:1:1:1:42:2:1:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 23/21eq: -0.364
Player:
Opponent:
35.60% (G:7.04% B:0.29%)
64.40% (G:24.11% B:2.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.372...-0.356) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 24/20eq: -0.457 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
34.03% (G:6.75% B:0.32%)
65.97% (G:27.89% B:3.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.465...-0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 13/11* eq: -0.467 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
34.55% (G:8.05% B:0.57%)
65.45% (G:30.08% B:4.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.476...-0.457) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] b/21 23/21
[ 4] b/21 13/11*
[ 2] b/23 24/20
[ 1] b/23 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 23/21

It looks tempting to make the 23 anchor and then play 24/20 but we will only be behind in the race by 45 pips after the roll. Mochy once wrote that you need 84 pips of timing to play a 12 backgame. So we do not have enough timing for a deep backgame.

How about Bar/21 23/21? This is more of a holding game, and a holding type of game is more appropriate here because of our lack of timing, so I will go with Bar/21 23/21.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 186
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB---C-C--acB--bb-d-Bb-C-:1:1:-1:52:2:1:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout124/22 14/9eq: +0.338
Player:
Opponent:
63.89% (G:22.76% B:1.93%)
36.11% (G:7.03% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.330...+0.347) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
2.Rollout114/9 13/11eq: +0.319 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
62.94% (G:23.97% B:2.05%)
37.06% (G:7.63% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.311...+0.328) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 14/9.

My 5 is clearly 14/9, and then I prefer 24/22 rather than leaving a few shots and stripping the midpoint with 13/11.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 186
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=--Ba--C-C---cB--cb-d-Bb-C-:1:1:1:61:2:1:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 149
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 188
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB---C-C--acB--bc-e-A-AC-:0:0:-1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.64% (G:26.35% B:2.70%) 66.24% (G:26.50% B:2.83%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.36% (G:7.14% B:0.30%) 33.76% (G:7.23% B:0.35%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.562 +1.162
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.858 (-0.065)±0.013 (+0.845..+0.871)
played Double/Take:+0.923±0.018 (+0.905..+0.941)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.077)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] Take
[ 9] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

Let’s use the Value Equation here from the Doublers point of view:

  • V = Prime + Blitz + Race + Contact
  • V = 3 + 2 + 2 – 2
  • V = 5

This is a strong double for Neil, but we do have an anchor, hopefully the ability to make another anchor, a slightly better board, and if Neil makes a point — he cannot safety the checker on his 14 point.

This is no bargain, but we have to take. If you have one element of the value equation, and the others are not overwhelming, then you have a take.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 149
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 188
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB---C-C--acB--bc-e-A-AC-:1:1:-1:53:2:1:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 6/3eq: +0.351
Player:
Opponent:
64.03% (G:24.12% B:2.10%)
35.97% (G:7.98% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.347...+0.354) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 11 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 14/9eq: +0.343 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
64.84% (G:21.61% B:1.61%)
35.16% (G:7.72% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.339...+0.346) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 30 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 6/3.

One of the reasons I cubed was to play a complicated game. Making my 3 point seems like the most complicated play and if not correct, cannot be far wrong. I need to start making points in my board and can hope, after some sequences, to roll an attacking joker next turn. This also does something at least somewhat useful with a stacked spare checker on my 6 point.



USBGF Members: 64 21/11*
Neil Kazaross: 65 b/14*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 141
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 192
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB---C-C--acB--bb-d--bACA:1:1:1:42:2:1:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB--aD-B--AcC--bc-e---AB-:0:0:1:51:2:1:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout113/8 6/5* eq: -0.257
Player:
Opponent:
44.86% (G:15.40% B:0.61%)
55.14% (G:18.01% B:1.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.262...-0.252) - [99.9%]
Duration: 13 hours 48 minutes
2.Rollout111/5* eq: -0.269 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
44.14% (G:14.79% B:0.52%)
55.86% (G:16.92% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.274...-0.264) - [0.1%]
Duration: 13 hours 28 minutes
3.Rollout223/18 6/5* eq: -0.345 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
43.60% (G:13.84% B:0.70%)
56.40% (G:20.16% B:1.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.358...-0.332) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] 13/8 6/5*
[ 6] 23/18 6/5*
[ 3] 11/5*
[ 1] 6/1* 2/1
[ 1] 24/23 11/6
[ 1] 24/18
[ 1] 23/22 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 6/5*

We have an attacking game plan so let’s attack. We will either hit with 11/5* or 13/8 6/5*.

I prefer 13/8 6/5* because:

  • it brings another checker into the zone,
  • it gives us good 6’s to carry on attacking if hit and a good 6 to cover if we are missed.

It does strip the mid point, but we have a spare on the 8 point, so we do not have to give up the 8 point if we cover or hit from it, which is important.



Neil Kazaross: 65 b/20*/14*
USBGF Members: 41 b/24 b/21


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 149
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 188
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB---C-C--acB--bc-e-A-AC-:0:0:-1:00:2:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-04-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bB---D-B---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:21:2:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.153
Player:
Opponent:
47.20% (G:15.44% B:0.93%)
52.80% (G:17.47% B:0.86%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.158...-0.148) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 hours 10 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.175 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
46.93% (G:15.46% B:0.94%)
53.07% (G:17.83% B:1.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.180...-0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 hours 52 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 24/23 13/11
[10] 13/11 6/5
[ 1] 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 13/11

We have made our 2 point, therefore we are playing an attacking or racing game.

Neil has made the correct reply and is aiming for a Priming game plan, therefore we have to split to either:

  • try for an advanced anchor to counter his priming game plan, or
  • give ourselves more shots at Neil’s outfield, making it harder for him to bring more checkers into the zone.

Either way we are splitting and the safest way to do so is 24/23 13/11.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 154
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bB---D-B--AcD-aac-e---AA-:0:0:-1:64:2:1:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout124/14* eq: +0.128
Player:
Opponent:
53.19% (G:15.10% B:0.86%)
46.81% (G:16.49% B:1.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.123...+0.133) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 hours 58 minutes
2.Rollout18/2* 6/2eq: +0.109 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
51.37% (G:18.95% B:1.04%)
48.63% (G:16.17% B:1.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.104...+0.114) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 54 minutes
3.Rollout210/4 8/4eq: +0.056 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
50.41% (G:16.80% B:0.88%)
49.59% (G:16.39% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.045...+0.067) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/14*.

There are 3 possible plays to consider. (1) Making the 4 point. (2) Pointing on the 2 point. (3)Hitting on the 14 point.

First of all, pointing on the 2 point should be better than making the 4 point since it hits and takes away half a roll and retains builders to hopefully continue the attack. So now there’s only 2 plays to compare.

In response to an opening 21 split, hitting 24/14* is clear. While I don’t think it’s 100% clear here, it still gains pips and removes a builder and gets a back checker out with tempo. The drawback here is the return shots, but quite a few rolls do miss and then I can hopefully continue to improve.



USBGF Members: 21 b/24 13/11*
Neil Kazaross: 51 b/20 10/9

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 155
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aB--aD-B--AcC--bc-e---AB-:0:0:1:51:2:1:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-04-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 63
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-FB--------aa--baccbb-:1:-1:1:44:0:1:0:11:10
to play 44

1.xgRollout16/2 5/1(3)eq: +0.943
Player:
Opponent:
97.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.943...+0.943) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 10 seconds
2.playedRollout16/2(2) 5/1(2)eq: +0.941 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
97.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.941...+0.941) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds
3.Rollout15/1(4)eq: +0.937 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
97.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.936...+0.937) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 34 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 6/2(2) 5/1(2)
[15] 6/2 5/1(3)
[ 1] 5/1(4)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/2 5/1(3)

For these types of bear off questions, first I try to fill a gap if possible, then I compare the difference between the from and to points for each of the candidate plays.

So for the first 4, we should play 5/1, filling the gap.

For the second 4, the difference between the number of checkers on the 5 point and 1 point is now four checkers, while the difference between the 6 point and 2 point is one checker. So we should play 5/1 with the second 4, as that reduces the biggest difference.

For the third 4, the difference between the number of checkers on the 5 point and 1 point is now two checkers, while the difference between the 6 point and 2 point is one checker. So we should play 5/1 with the third 4, as that reduces the biggest difference.

For the fourth 4, the difference between the number of checkers on the 5 point and 1 point is now zero checkers, while the difference between the 6 point and 2 point is one checker. So we should play 6/2, reducing the biggest difference.

Putting it altogether, I would play 6/2 5/1(3). Does this always work? Most of the time, yes. The real advantage of this method is it is fast, and does not require a lot of thought.

In this particular case, whatever you choose will probably be quite close, but in other cases the method above can be correct by a significant amount.



Neil Kazaross: 33 10/4 9/6 3/0
USBGF Members: 52 5/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 55 6/1(3) 5/0
USBGF Members: 21 2/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 65 4/0(2)
USBGF Members: 53 5/0 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 65 4/0(2)
USBGF Members: 11 5/4 2/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 63 3/0(2)
USBGF Members: 53 5/0 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 53


USBGF Members win two points, and lead 9-away/10-away.



Neil Kazaross: 41 24/23 13/9
USBGF Members: 64 8/2* 6/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaB---D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:-1:31:2:1:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 13/10eq: -0.070
Player:
Opponent:
48.14% (G:14.69% B:0.68%)
51.86% (G:17.61% B:1.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.074...-0.065) - [98.2%]
Duration: 13 hours 19 minutes
2.xgRollout1Bar/22 9/8eq: -0.077 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
47.98% (G:12.96% B:0.58%)
52.02% (G:17.09% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.081...-0.072) - [1.8%]
Duration: 13 hours 17 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 13/10.

I think I remember much of the XG opening database on how to respond to an opening 64 8/2 6/2, and maybe that can help guide me here.

If I compare B/21 to B/24 13/10, this is the same decision as when one rolls 43 after your opponent opens with 64 8/2 6/2. 43 13/10 13/9 bringing down two builders is clearly best then.

But wait, I can also play B/22 9/8 here, and that transposes into a 52 response to 64 8/2 6/2. There I know that playing 52 13/11 13/8 is slightly better than splitting and that it is very close.

So now I ask myself if I’d rather roll 43 or 52 after my opponent opens 64 8/2 6/2, and I’d somewhat prefer the more ambitious 43. So based on reasoning and database memory here, 43 13/10 13/9 is better than 52 13/11 13/8, which in turn is better than 52 24/22 13/8, so I play B/24 13/10.

As far as theory goes, we usually should be less happy to split after 64 8/2 6/2 than some other point making rolls since there’s still the danger of getting attacked and blitzed. But now this is more offset by trying to make points on your side of the board with builders,
with the idea being to steer towards a prime vs. prime game where the opponent’s 2 point isn’t very useful. Note also that I trail in the race by 3 pips and that tends to push decisions like this towards making good blocking points.

Of course, splitting can work out great when my opponents roll mediocre and I either return hit or make an anchor in front of that 2 point. But I think building is slightly better, and steers towards a game plan I prefer after 64 8/2 6/2.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 2

is USBGF Members
XGID=-bB---D-B---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:21:2:1:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-03-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 67
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AAB-FC-----a--a---baccbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:1:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout16/Off 1/Offeq: +0.711
Player:
Opponent:
87.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.711...+0.712) - [97.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 04 seconds
2.xgRollout16/Off 5/4eq: +0.711 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
87.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.710...+0.711) - [3.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 03 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14413173
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 6/0 1/0
[ 8] 6/0 5/4


Jason Lee recommends: 6/0 1/0

There is a maxim known as “Magriel’s Conjecture” which states that in a non-contact position, it is never wrong to bear off with an ace. No counterexample has been found, so it’s safe to take this as a rule with which to play by. However, no formal mathematical proof has been found of this fact. Bob Koca has spent a lot of time trying to answer this question. I just talked to Bob a few days ago, and he says it’s still an open problem.

Here’s a very old rec.games.backgammon thread about the conjecture.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 67
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-FB-----a--a---baccbb-:1:-1:-1:31:0:1:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout113/9eq: -0.856
Player:
Opponent:
6.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.856...-0.855) - [90.3%]
Duration: 10 minutes 01 second
2.xgRollout113/10 6/5eq: -0.856 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
6.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.856...-0.856) - [9.7%]
Duration: 9 minutes 30 seconds
3.Rollout110/6eq: -0.862 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
6.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.863...-0.862) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 07 seconds
4.Rollout113/12 10/7eq: -0.866 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
6.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.867...-0.866) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 45 seconds
5.Rollout110/7 6/5eq: -0.867 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
6.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.868...-0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 07 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38688479
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9.

After this string of small rolls, my chances are very small. I think the diversification of 13/9 gives me the best chance. Big doubles play well and I’ll need a couple of them.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 63
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 50
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--AB-FB--------aa--baccbb-:1:-1:1:44:0:1:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-03-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABB-FD---a----a---c-ccbb-:1:-1:1:62:0:1:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout16/Off 2/Offeq: +0.495
Player:
Opponent:
78.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
22.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.495...+0.496) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/Offeq: +0.481 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
77.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
22.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.480...+0.482) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 22 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16459617
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] 6/0 2/0
[ 3] 6/0 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/0 2/0

In order for me to make a move other than taking a checker off, I need a very good reason.

So we have a gap on our 4 point, but our 4’s play ok by going to our bare 1 point. Therefore, I would just take 2 checkers off with 6/off 2/off.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AAB-FC---a----a---c-ccbb-:1:-1:-1:21:0:1:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout115/13 6/5eq: -0.713
Player:
Opponent:
12.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
87.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.713...-0.712) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout110/8 6/5eq: -0.718 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
12.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
87.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.718...-0.717) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 52 seconds
3.Rollout115/12eq: -0.731 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
11.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.732...-0.731) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 10 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14413173
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/13 6/5.

I’ll play 6/5 to fill that gap and then 15/13 will allow my next 5 to play 10/5 putting another checker on my 5 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 67
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AAB-FC-----a--a---baccbb-:1:-1:1:61:0:1:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-03-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 77
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABB-BD-D-b-------ab-ccbb-:1:-1:1:33:0:1:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout18/5(4)eq: +0.348
Player:
Opponent:
71.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.347...+0.349) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout18/5(3) 6/3eq: +0.343 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
71.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.342...+0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout18/5(2) 8/2eq: +0.336 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
71.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.335...+0.337) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 54 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16459617
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[41] 8/5(4)
[ 3] 8/5(3) 6/3
[ 1] 8/5(2) 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/5(4)

I would simply bring all checkers inside now with 8/5(4). There are cases when you should better diversify, but they usually involve putting a checker on to an empty 6, 5 or 4 point – this is not one of those positions.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABB-FD---b-------ab-ccbb-:1:-1:-1:51:0:1:0:11:10
to play 51

1.Rollout115/10 6/5eq: -0.473
Player:
Opponent:
22.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
77.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.474...-0.473) - [90.3%]
Duration: 32 minutes 32 seconds
2.playedRollout115/10 7/6eq: -0.474 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
22.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
77.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.475...-0.473) - [9.7%]
Duration: 30 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout115/14 15/10eq: -0.491 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
22.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
77.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.491...-0.490) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16459617
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/10 7/6.

I’ll make my crossover first and worry about the 5 gap later.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 70
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABB-FD---a----a---c-ccbb-:1:-1:1:62:0:1:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-03-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 88
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 83
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABBbBC-C-B-------ab-ccbb-:1:-1:1:42:0:1:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout18/2eq: +0.398
Player:
Opponent:
73.29% (G:2.56% B:0.04%)
26.71% (G:0.58% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.394...+0.402) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 00 second
2.playedRollout110/8 10/6eq: +0.382 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
72.77% (G:2.02% B:0.02%)
27.23% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.378...+0.385) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16459617
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[42] 10/8 10/6
[ 8] 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2

We have the choice of 2 plays:

  • 8/2 keeping contact, which is best with us only having a small race lead,
  • 10/8 10/6 minimising contact, which is best when we have a good race lead.

After this roll we will be ahead by only 11 pips. This is almost enough to break contact, but not quite enough. Here I would play 8/2 but if we move Neil’s checker on his 7 point back to his 8 point giving us a 12 pip lead after the roll, I would then play 10/8 10/6.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 88
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 77
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABBbBD-D---------ab-ccbb-:1:-1:-1:33:0:1:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout121/15(2)eq: -0.090
Player:
Opponent:
38.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
61.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.093...-0.088) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout121/18(2) 7/4 6/3eq: -0.215 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent:
33.55% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
66.45% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.219...-0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds
3.Rollout121/18(2) 7/1eq: -0.231 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:
32.80% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
67.20% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.235...-0.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
4.Rollout121/18 21/12eq: -0.255 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:
32.09% (G:0.55% B:0.01%)
67.91% (G:1.09% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.259...-0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16459617
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 21/15(2).

If I don’t run, I have to waste pips and wreck my board and am likely to be forced to run next turn and unlikely to get a shot as well. So everything points to 21/15(2).


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 77
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABB-BD-D-b-------ab-ccbb-:1:-1:1:33:0:1:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-03-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbCC-B-C------aacbbca--:1:-1:1:42:0:1:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout110/8 5/1eq: +0.442
Player:
Opponent:
74.94% (G:1.56% B:0.02%)
25.06% (G:1.03% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.438...+0.445) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout110/6 3/1eq: +0.407 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
73.41% (G:1.78% B:0.03%)
26.59% (G:1.46% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.403...+0.410) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout15/1 3/1eq: +0.404 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
73.22% (G:1.77% B:0.02%)
26.78% (G:1.30% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.400...+0.407) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 01 second
4.Rollout110/6 5/3eq: +0.399 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
72.99% (G:1.52% B:0.02%)
27.01% (G:1.17% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.395...+0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 00 second
5.Rollout110/8 6/2eq: +0.388 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
72.49% (G:1.43% B:0.02%)
27.51% (G:1.32% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.384...+0.391) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 10/8 5/1
[11] 10/6 5/3
[ 6] 10/6 3/1
[ 4] 10/8 6/2
[ 1] 6/2 5/3
[ 1] 5/1 3/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 10/6 3/1

I got this wrong as I went with 10/6 3/1. But this leaves an immediate shot with 64 and 61. I liked the fact that you came down to an even number of checkers in the outfield.

However, playing 10/8 5/1 means that 61 and 64 no longer leave a shot. Therefore 10/8 5/1 is a much safer alternative. It looks ugly having a third checker of the 8 point, but we need to see the extra builder as giving us more flexibility.


Steve Sax recommends: 10/8 5/1

With a 21 pip lead, our objective is to clear the outside point. By playing 10/8, we have 11 numbers to clear the ten point and no bad rolls on our next shake.

Slotting isn’t a problem, as Neil will not run off the anchor with that large a race deficit. So if we can’t clear too easily but can make our ace point, a time in the not too distant future may exist where Neil will be forced off the anchor and with our five point board, we have a good chance to contain Neil.

That in addition, the USBGF Members’ large race lead will give us a pretty good chance to win the game.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 83
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABBbBC-C-B------aacbbca--:1:-1:-1:44:0:1:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout18/4 6/2 5/1(2)eq: -0.438
Player:
Opponent:
24.94% (G:0.55% B:0.01%)
75.06% (G:2.37% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.442...-0.435) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 55 seconds
2.Rollout17/3 6/2 5/1(2)eq: -0.450 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
24.50% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)
75.50% (G:2.57% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.453...-0.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 27 seconds
3.Rollout18/4 6/2(2) 5/1eq: -0.452 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
25.14% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)
74.86% (G:4.18% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.455...-0.448) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout16/2(2) 5/1(2)eq: -0.453 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
24.43% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)
75.57% (G:2.64% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.457...-0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 08 seconds
5.Rollout18/4 7/3 6/2(2)eq: -0.455 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
24.38% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)
75.62% (G:2.97% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.458...-0.451) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 56 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16459617
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/2 5/1(2).

It’s crash time, but I can still retain a 5 point board. So I’ll play 5/1(2), then 6/2 and 8/4. I could try a play killing my 6’s by bringing both checkers in from the outfield, but then I may not like being forced out with a 65 or 63.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 88
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 83
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ABBbBC-C-B-------ab-ccbb-:1:-1:1:42:0:1:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-03-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbCC-B-C------aacbbca--:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.28% (G:1.74% B:0.05%) 75.35% (G:1.72% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.72% (G:0.95% B:0.02%) 24.65% (G:0.94% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.514 +1.036
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.879 (-0.019)±0.007 (+0.872..+0.886)
played Double/Take:+0.898±0.007 (+0.890..+0.905)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.102)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 26 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[38] Double
[ 4] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

First I as would ask myself if I would double this for money? The answer would be yes as I have a 15% race lead. If I round my score to 90 then 10% of 90 is 9 and so another 5% must be half of 9 or 4.5. 9 + 4.5 = 13.5 which added to 89 is 102.5 and Neil’s pip count is 104. Therefore I have a double for money so I must have a double trailing by 1 point.

The 15% comes from the Rule of 4.


Neil Kazaross takes.

A fine double, but one I have to take in this rather basic position. If I trailed by 11 pips in a pure race I’d have a flip a coin decision. Here I trail by 4 more pips than that, but there are enough added hitting chances to take. A 64 leaves me an immediate shot and there’s significant chances for more shots. The real difficultly for my opponents is to clear their 10 point, and even if they do, there’s still that 8 point to clear.

My rear checkers are restrained and this could cause me to waste some pips on my side of the board or even get squeezed into leaving a vulnerable blot. But this is mostly mitigated by the wasted pips my anchor will often cause and the fact that the USBGF Members will often be bearing off with a dearth of checkers on their 4 point.

I’d pass if the pip count was the same, but they had the easier to clear 9 point rather than their 10 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbCC-B-C------aacbbca--:1:-1:1:42:0:1:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-03-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 101
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbBC-C----C-a-aabbcc---:0:0:1:33:0:1:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10(3) 8/5eq: +0.855
Player:
Opponent:
74.30% (G:1.72% B:0.04%)
25.70% (G:0.89% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.847...+0.862) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout113/10(3) 6/3eq: +0.809 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
73.30% (G:1.56% B:0.02%)
26.70% (G:1.11% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.802...+0.817) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout113/7(2)eq: +0.800 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
72.73% (G:3.65% B:0.28%)
27.27% (G:1.67% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.796...+0.803) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/10(3) 8/5
[17] 13/7(2)
[ 1] 13/10(3) 6/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10(3) 8/5

We could play 13/7(2), but that leaves 63 and 54 as hitting numbers for Neil.

We want to keep our spares in front of Neil’s anchor, so 13/10(3) 6/3 burying a checker is wrong.

The only play left is 13/10(3) 8/5 which is safe. This would be my play.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbCC-B-C----a-aabbcc---:0:0:-1:42:0:1:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout110/6 4/2eq: -0.904
Player:
Opponent:
24.67% (G:0.93% B:0.02%)
75.33% (G:1.75% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.907...-0.901) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout110/6 3/1eq: -0.904 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
24.61% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
75.39% (G:1.82% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.907...-0.902) - [16.7%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.Rollout18/2eq: -0.908 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
24.54% (G:0.94% B:0.02%)
75.46% (G:1.82% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.911...-0.905) - [16.7%]
Duration: 58 minutes 53 seconds
4.Rollout110/6 7/5eq: -0.913 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
24.33% (G:0.91% B:0.02%)
75.67% (G:1.72% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.916...-0.910) - [16.7%]
Duration: 55 minutes 03 seconds
5.Rollout27/1eq: -0.926 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
24.11% (G:0.86% B:0.01%)
75.89% (G:1.97% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.932...-0.919) - [16.7%]
Duration: 7 minutes 49 seconds
6.Rollout210/6 8/6eq: -0.927 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
24.02% (G:0.88% B:0.02%)
75.98% (G:1.79% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.933...-0.920) - [16.7%]
Duration: 8 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 4/2.

10/6 4/2 brings in a checker to a good spot and prepares to make a 5 point board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 104
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbCC-B-C------aacbbca--:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-03-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 119
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbBB-C---bC-A-a-bbcc---:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.87% (G:3.07% B:0.09%) 64.10% (G:2.97% B:0.10%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.13% (G:3.33% B:0.07%) 35.90% (G:3.36% B:0.07%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.274 +0.552
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.478±0.007 (+0.471..+0.485)
     Double/Take:+0.344 (-0.134)±0.009 (+0.335..+0.353)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.522)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] No Double
[10] Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: No Double

As a baseline in these positions, I think about whether I would double if our checker on the 15 point was on our midpoint and the pipcount was the same, say by moving a checker from our 3 point to our 5 point. Using the Rule of 4 which states that you need 4 or fewer checkers on the midpoint plus a 15% race lead to double, this means the altered position is not a double. We would need a 16 pip lead, not just the 9 pip lead we have. So if this safer altered position is not a double, then this position is not a double.


Steve Sax recommends: No Double

I certainly wouldn’t double here for quite a few reasons.

First of all, we have very few market losers. Upon closer inspection, the only market losing sequence is 44 by the USBGF Members and Neil’s 22 worst numbers based on “dice distribution.” That’s 22/1296, or less than 2%, and when you consider that the most significant market loss reaches an equity for us at 1.071, that is hardly a reason to cube.

Secondly, not only is it not a cube based on market losers, you put yourself at risk if you don’t safety the checker from the 15 point as you can find yourself losing the game rather quickly.

That occurs 96/1296 or nearly 7.4% of the time. And if we leave the shot and Neil hits and then we fail to enter, Neil will be able to cash 100% of the time (but not be strong enough to play for the gammon).

If we can’t safety and are hit, but reenters not hitting, Neil will be a favorite, but generally not be strong enough to re-double.

And even under most circumstances where we safety with a mid value dice distribution number (43 for example) and then Neil rolls an average of eight pips (62 for example), we are still a full .07 short of a cube.

That is for obvious reasons that our race lead simply isn’t large enough to warrant a cube and Neil will have plenty of shot equity as we struggle to bring our outfield pieces home.



USBGF Members: 63 15/6


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 119
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 101
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbBC-C---bC---a-bbcc---:0:0:-1:63:0:1:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout113/10 13/7eq: -0.623
Player:
Opponent:
31.84% (G:1.38% B:0.03%)
68.16% (G:2.12% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.630...-0.617) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 4/1eq: -0.654 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
31.21% (G:1.59% B:0.03%)
68.79% (G:3.21% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.661...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10 13/7.

Good backgammon play involves trying to use all 15 checkers as best as possible and also looking ahead a couple of turns. If I retain the mid point now, I have to leave two blots in my board and will almost always have to break either my board or midpoint next turn. My midpoint currently isn’t helping me to get a shot since the USBGF Members have spare checkers to move. Therefore, since it seems that there’s almost no chance for me to retain both board and midpoint for long enough, I should break the midpoint now.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 101
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbBC-C----C-a-aabbcc---:0:0:1:33:0:1:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-03-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbBB-C---bB---bBcacb---:0:0:1:53:0:1:0:11:10
to play 53

1.xgRollout113/5eq: +0.199
Player:
Opponent:
55.74% (G:10.63% B:0.30%)
44.26% (G:8.68% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.191...+0.208) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
2.playedRollout118/15 18/13eq: +0.142 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
55.24% (G:7.75% B:0.34%)
44.76% (G:9.33% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.135...+0.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: +0.099 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
52.91% (G:11.27% B:0.36%)
47.09% (G:9.70% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.091...+0.107) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
4.Rollout18/5 8/3eq: -0.053 (-0.253)
Player:
Opponent:
48.99% (G:11.55% B:0.39%)
51.01% (G:14.51% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.063...-0.044) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 58 seconds
5.Rollout113/10 8/3eq: -0.099 (-0.298)
Player:
Opponent:
48.25% (G:13.70% B:0.51%)
51.75% (G:18.73% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.108...-0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 12 seconds
6.Rollout118/13 8/5eq: -0.122 (-0.322)
Player:
Opponent:
48.71% (G:8.77% B:0.30%)
51.29% (G:14.17% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.130...-0.114) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 49 seconds
7.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: -0.166 (-0.366)
Player:
Opponent:
46.53% (G:7.25% B:0.17%)
53.47% (G:15.80% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.175...-0.157) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 18/15 18/13
[ 8] 13/5
[ 3] 6/3 6/1
[ 2] 13/10 13/8
[ 1] 18/13 8/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/5

We have to leave a blot so we need to ask ourselves ‘Which point does Neil least want to hit us from?’ Here that is the midpoint, so if we play 13/5, and Neil will be giving us return shots and we will have duplicated 1’s for him to hit and cover the blot on his 5 point. We will also still have the 18 point as a point to escape to with 61 and 52.

If however, we play 18/15 18/13, we will have let Neil hit with 3’s then cover with 1’s and 5’s. Although 3’s will be duplicated, he will have more hit and cover numbers.

13/10 13/8 gives Neil good 6’s which he does not currently have, and will allow Neil to hit from his rearmost anchor which he would like to do.

My gut instinct was to play 13/5 and going through all the options convinces me that this is the correct play.



Neil Kazaross: 51 8/3 6/5


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 119
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 110
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbBB-C---bC-A-a-bbcc---:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-03-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 137
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---AbBCAC---cC---bBd-bb---:0:0:1:54:0:1:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout113/8 7/3eq: +0.175
Player:
Opponent:
54.60% (G:8.50% B:0.28%)
45.40% (G:7.43% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.167...+0.183) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 7/3eq: +0.119 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
52.92% (G:8.79% B:0.28%)
47.08% (G:8.84% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.110...+0.127) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
3.Rollout17/2 6/2eq: +0.096 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
52.67% (G:9.15% B:0.30%)
47.33% (G:9.76% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.087...+0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 13/8 7/3
[ 2] 8/3 7/3
[ 1] 18/14 18/13


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
and
Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com)
teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 7/3

After the roll we will be ahead in the race by 7 pips.

We want to keep as many spares as possible in front of Neil’s anchor on our 21 point, so I would reject 8/3 7/3.

So it looks like we have to play 13/8 7/3. This takes the spare off the midpoint and improves our board while moving only one spare behind Neil’s anchor.


Steve Sax recommends: 13/8 7/3

While we would have liked to make our bar point, the USBGF Members can still make our three point with the four and play 13/8 with the five.

Making the four point with the four is the most constructive move available for this roll, and playing a five down from the mid point is safe and somewhat constructive as it allows us to play sixes comfortably to our two point.

Any other move either leaves a shot or at a minimum puts pieces out of play or at least in uncomfortable places.

Sometimes the obvious play is really obvious. In this case no surprises, just play 13/8 7/3 and as Stick says, “call it a day”.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 128
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BbBC-D---cB---bBd-bb---:0:0:-1:41:0:1:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout113/8eq: -0.214
Player:
Opponent:
44.01% (G:7.45% B:0.22%)
55.99% (G:8.25% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.222...-0.206) - [99.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2.xgRollout16/5 6/2eq: -0.230 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
43.64% (G:7.75% B:0.20%)
56.36% (G:8.32% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.238...-0.222) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
3.Rollout16/1eq: -0.261 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
42.78% (G:6.96% B:0.16%)
57.22% (G:8.77% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.269...-0.253) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
4.Rollout16/2 3/2eq: -0.266 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
42.89% (G:7.05% B:0.17%)
57.11% (G:8.74% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.274...-0.258) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
5.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: -0.294 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
41.61% (G:8.77% B:0.27%)
58.39% (G:9.74% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.306...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8.

Holding games are often waiting games. With the USBGF Members having a fine 3 point board, playing 13/9 6/5 looks wrong, as I don’t want to be hit and if they do hit me, they often gain tempo to help escape from their anchor. If I slot both inside points, I leave a stripped position that isn’t always easy to clean up. So I’ll just play the mundane 13/8.



USBGF Members: 64 8/2 6/2


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 130
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbBB-C---bB---cBd-bb---:0:0:-1:32:0:1:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout18/5 6/4eq: -0.209
Player:
Opponent:
44.01% (G:9.19% B:0.27%)
55.99% (G:10.22% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.217...-0.201) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2.Rollout18/3eq: -0.262 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
42.68% (G:7.52% B:0.23%)
57.32% (G:9.54% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.270...-0.253) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
3.Rollout16/1eq: -0.269 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
42.43% (G:7.63% B:0.19%)
57.57% (G:10.00% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.277...-0.261) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34097821
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/5 6/4.

Shots are hopefully coming, so I want my 5 point and the best board possible. Therefore, I slot my 5 point and don’t worry much about being stripped. 6/1 doesn’t look correct for the long term.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 1
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 0

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBbBB-C---bB---bBcacb---:0:0:1:53:0:1:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10