USBGF OLM 2019-05-17

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 115
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----B-D-B--C--b-Afcd-B-A--:0:0:1:32:7:6:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 11/9 8/5
[ 9] 16/13 11/9
[ 2] 23/21 16/13
[ 1] 11/8 6/4
[ 1] 11/9 11/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/9 6/3

I like leaving our checker on the 16 point where it is. This makes it more dangerous for Neil to make his 5 point with 61, 62 or 63. Other rolls like 41 force Neil to leave a direct shot, but it we had played 16/13 it would only be an indirect shot. So we leave the checker on the 16 point where it is to harass Neil’s 11 point.

We want to start another inner board point, but which one? Both 8/5 and 6/3 look good, but 8/5 gives up the 8 point to slot the 5 point, but 6/3 unstacks the 6 point and retains the 8 point so we should play 6/3.

We should play the two, 11/9 again unstacking a point (as my Danish visitor would have done) and giving us a direct 6 to cover the 3 point blot.”


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 11/9 8/5

Let’s stay on the 16 point for the same reason as in our last move: control of Neil’s checkers on our 14 point. We should start the 5 point with 11/9 8/5 although this leaves us with many blots, which is a problem when we get a shot before we can cover the 5 point. But establishing the 5 point is justifies taking some chances.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 115
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 157
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BAD-AA-B--b-Afcd-B-A--:0:0:-1:00:7:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


Today’s vote:

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Sat 5/25 445p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-05-16

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 170
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----B-D-Bb-Cb----dcd-BA--A:0:0:1:62:7:6:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 22/16eq: -0.675
Player:
Opponent:
31.55% (G:6.09% B:0.31%)
68.45% (G:12.74% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.687...-0.664) - [96.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 11/5eq: -0.691 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
31.80% (G:6.04% B:0.39%)
68.20% (G:14.04% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.702...-0.679) - [3.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59778233
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/23 22/16
[11] b/23 11/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 22/16

If we start the 5 point with 11/5, we are giving Neil a free hand to clear his midpoint or 16 point, or otherwise make new inner board points – maybe while hitting our two inner board blots in the process.

Compare this to running into the outfield with Bar/23 22/16. If Neil hits us from his midpoint, he has to give up his midpoint. We also may get return shots and we do have the stronger board and are behind in the race. If we are hit, then our timing for a backgame will have improved from hopeless to better, though still not great. If we just end up with a 21 point anchor plus one extra checker then we have given ourselves some more mobility.

All in all, we should resist the temptation to start the 5 point and play Bar/23 22/16.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----B-D-Bb-Cb---Adcd-B-A--:0:0:-1:55:7:6:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 16/11(2) 13/8(2).

Any play to be considered has to start with 16/11(2), reducing contact. After that it seems easy to compare three choices for the next two 5s.

  • 11/6(2) gives up my builders on the 11 point. They are important as they aim at my 5 point and also give me a clearing 52 and 62. That play is rejected.
  • 8/3(2) makes a new inside point. They are important but what I don’t like is the fact that they will leave that blot on my 9 point to harass both my stripped 11 and 13 points. This play is likely not best.
  • 13/8(2) — Ouch what a big stack on my 8 point, but my bad 63 plays OK making my 5 point and 4 prime. I’ll often survive being hit after that. I also have options to make my 5 pt with 61 and 62.

I think best is 16/11(2) 13/8(2).


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 115
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----B-D-B--C--b-Afcd-B-A--:0:0:1:32:7:6:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Fri 5/24 1155p Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2019-05-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----B-C-Cb-Cc----ccd-CA---:0:0:1:52:7:6:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout122/15eq: -0.609
Player:
Opponent:
32.17% (G:5.34% B:0.31%)
67.83% (G:9.27% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.619...-0.599) - [99.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
2.playedRollout121/16 8/6eq: -0.629 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
32.25% (G:5.82% B:0.27%)
67.75% (G:10.59% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.640...-0.618) - [0.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
3.Rollout122/20 21/16eq: -0.637 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
32.29% (G:5.90% B:0.20%)
67.71% (G:11.40% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.649...-0.625) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
4.Rollout122/20 8/3eq: -0.638 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
31.71% (G:5.76% B:0.35%)
68.29% (G:9.49% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.649...-0.628) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
5.Rollout121/16 6/4eq: -0.654 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
31.73% (G:5.60% B:0.27%)
68.27% (G:10.97% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.665...-0.642) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
6.Rollout122/20 11/6eq: -0.671 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
31.07% (G:5.45% B:0.19%)
68.93% (G:9.70% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.680...-0.661) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
7.Rollout18/6 8/3eq: -0.684 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
30.78% (G:5.73% B:0.32%)
69.22% (G:10.51% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.695...-0.672) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
8.Rollout18/3 6/4eq: -0.684 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
30.59% (G:5.57% B:0.39%)
69.41% (G:10.03% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.696...-0.673) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
9.Rollout121/14eq: -0.690 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
31.09% (G:5.23% B:0.21%)
68.91% (G:11.09% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.702...-0.678) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
10.Rollout111/4eq: -0.720 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
29.82% (G:5.19% B:0.14%)
70.18% (G:10.34% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.731...-0.708) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 21/16 8/6
[10] 22/15
[ 6] 21/14
[ 6] 22/20 8/3
[ 4] 22/20 21/16
[ 3] 11/4
[ 2] 22/20 11/6
[ 1] 11/6 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/15

We are behind in the race by 21 pips after the roll. We really need to restrain Neil if we can. The blot on our 22 point does not make it too awkward for Neil to play checkers behind us, so we should move that checker into the outfield 22/15. We would like to make the 15 point as it is 6 pips away from Neil’s 16 point. If Neil hits us from the 16 point we will have return shots with any 6 and if there is a single checker left on Neil’s 16 point, at that checker as well.

If Neil does not hit the checker we move to the 15 point then we have a spare on our 21 point which could be used to make the 15 point.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 22/15

Kimon’s cHaving re-considered the last move and the rollout result I “feel” that maybe connectivity might be the right concept here. Even though we are trailing in the race, we should not offer too many opportunities for an attack. This would lead 22/15 as possibly best move.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 161
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----B-D-Bb-Cc---Accd-BA---:0:0:-1:41:7:6:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout113/9* 9/8eq: +0.625
Player:
Opponent:
67.15% (G:11.72% B:0.34%)
32.85% (G:6.30% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.614...+0.637) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout113/8eq: +0.509 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
65.89% (G:7.95% B:0.22%)
34.11% (G:5.89% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.499...+0.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59778233
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/9*/8.

I play 13/9*/8 so they cannot make a point in my outfield. This should win more games and more gammons that not hitting.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 170
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----B-D-Bb-Cb----dcd-BA--A:0:0:1:62:7:6:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 176
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----A-D-Cb--dC---cbd-CA---:0:0:1:22:7:6:0:11:10
to play 22

1.xgRollout122/20 13/11 8/4eq: -0.606
Player:
Opponent:
33.54% (G:6.77% B:0.38%)
66.46% (G:12.60% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.618...-0.594) - [93.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
2.Rollout122/20 8/4 6/4eq: -0.619 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
32.54% (G:6.48% B:0.41%)
67.46% (G:11.23% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.631...-0.607) - [6.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
3.Rollout122/20 13/11 6/4(2)eq: -0.633 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
33.17% (G:6.78% B:0.41%)
66.83% (G:13.55% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.646...-0.621) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
4.playedRollout113/11(3) 6/4eq: -0.639 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
31.83% (G:5.79% B:0.42%)
68.17% (G:10.20% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.651...-0.626) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes
5.Rollout113/11 8/4 6/4eq: -0.653 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
32.64% (G:6.39% B:0.40%)
67.36% (G:13.10% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.665...-0.641) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
6.Rollout122/20 8/6 8/4eq: -0.658 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
31.87% (G:6.03% B:0.38%)
68.13% (G:11.27% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.671...-0.645) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
7.Rollout18/2 6/4eq: -0.669 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
31.47% (G:6.11% B:0.15%)
68.53% (G:11.41% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.681...-0.657) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 13/11(3) 6/4
[ 7] 8/2 6/4
[ 6] 22/20 8/4 6/4
[ 5] 22/20 13/11 8/4
[ 2] 22/20 13/11 6/4(2)
[ 2] 22/20 6/4 6/2
[ 1] 8/4(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/20 13/11 8/4

This is tough, and it took me a long time to get the right answer. I think I would have either timed out or made a wrong play here over the board.

We are ahead in the race so we want to advance 22/20 as it prepares to escape and makes it hard for Neil to bring any checkers into his outfield.

Next we want to improve or board with 6/4, then we have the stronger board.

Next we can play 8/6 as this still retains the 8 point, leaving us one remaining 2 to play. Playing 6/4 again just overloads the 4 point. So that leaves 13/11, which aims a builder at our 5 point and if Neil hits us, we will have returns shots and the stronger board.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 13/11 8/4 6/4

Let’s leave the last checker on the 22 point for maximum contact. Then make the 4 point with 6/4. Next, 13/11 for flexibility (getting hit doesn’t matter much and improves contact). Two more 2s which we do not want to play and choose 8/4 as least evil. This makes in total 13/11 8/4 6/4.



Neil Kazaross: 51 13/7


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 140
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----B-C-Cb-Cc----ccd-CA---:0:0:1:52:7:6:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 182
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=------E-Cba-dC---bbd-BA--A:0:0:1:42:7:6:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/21 6/4eq: -0.618
Player:
Opponent:
33.06% (G:6.63% B:0.41%)
66.94% (G:12.31% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.631...-0.605) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/21 22/20eq: -0.668 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
32.04% (G:5.74% B:0.42%)
67.96% (G:11.81% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.680...-0.655) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 8/4eq: -0.677 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
32.48% (G:6.80% B:0.43%)
67.52% (G:14.18% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.691...-0.664) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/21 8/6eq: -0.722 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
30.97% (G:5.70% B:0.44%)
69.03% (G:12.43% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.734...-0.710) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] b/21 6/4
[ 7] b/23 8/4
[ 5] b/21 22/20
[ 1] b/21 8/6
[ 1] b/23 6/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21 6/4

About a year ago I had the pleasure of playing against a visiting Danish player who had come to check out New Zealand. While playing Backgammon, we commentated on our moves so that we could each understand how we approached the game and how we thought about positions. The thing that struck me most is how often the first question he asked himself before playing was ‘can I unstack?’. It literally was the first thing he though about.

Here we want to improve our board so after we enter, we will be playing either 8/4 or 6/4 to improve our board. 8/4 strips the 8 point and leaves the 6 point stacked while 6/4 keeps a spare on our 8 point and unstacks our 6 point, making it the correct move. So if we are playing 6/4 then we have to enter with Bar/21.

It might look like we have the opportunity to play a backgame if we enter with Bar/23 8/4, this is an illusion as we would hot have the timing required for a backgame.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/21 6/4

Now the race is gone and we are unhappy to play a back game or a holding game. If timing allows, we want to establish the 23 point and play bar/23 8/4. This point becomes important, when Neil will bear in after he has cleared our 9 point and our 13 point. Neil has more pips in the outfield to play than we do. This means we will have to clear our outfield points before Neil has to, and we probably will have to leave one of our two anchors too early, allowing Neil to attack with plenty of builders.

We better avoid that trouble and play a well-timed holding game by playing bar/21, which allows us to play that checker more easy into Neil’s outfield. 6/4 seems best for the 2, preparing a homeboard point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 176
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----A-D-Cba-dC---bbd-CA---:0:0:-1:52:7:6:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout115/8eq: +0.563
Player:
Opponent:
66.10% (G:10.60% B:0.33%)
33.90% (G:6.44% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.551...+0.574) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
2.Rollout115/10 13/11eq: +0.505 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
63.89% (G:13.16% B:0.57%)
36.11% (G:8.07% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.490...+0.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/8.

I can play safely and add a new needed builder for my 5 point with 15/8. I have no need to find a “fancy” play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 176
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----A-D-Cb--dC---cbd-CA---:0:0:1:22:7:6:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 170
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-Cb--dD---bbd-BA---:0:0:1:62:7:6:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout122/14eq: -0.318
Player:
Opponent:
40.07% (G:8.55% B:0.43%)
59.93% (G:10.49% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.330...-0.306) - [99.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 06 minutes
2.playedRollout113/5eq: -0.344 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
39.55% (G:9.08% B:0.53%)
60.45% (G:11.33% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.357...-0.331) - [0.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
3.Rollout122/16 13/11eq: -0.346 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
39.84% (G:8.87% B:0.44%)
60.16% (G:11.98% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.359...-0.334) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
4.Rollout122/16 6/4eq: -0.347 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
39.60% (G:8.41% B:0.48%)
60.40% (G:11.90% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.361...-0.333) - [0.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 11 minutes
5.Rollout122/16 8/6eq: -0.361 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
39.17% (G:8.46% B:0.55%)
60.83% (G:10.81% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.374...-0.349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes
6.Rollout122/20 13/7eq: -0.382 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
38.82% (G:8.44% B:0.57%)
61.18% (G:11.57% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.396...-0.368) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 06 minutes
7.Rollout121/13eq: -0.387 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
39.94% (G:8.14% B:0.54%)
60.06% (G:14.76% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.400...-0.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/5
[18] 22/14
[ 2] 21/13
[ 2] 22/16 13/11
[ 1] 22/16 8/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 22/14

13/5 would be good except it gives Neil a good 4, and his 4’s are blocked from his 16 point.

The play that I like is 22/14. If Neil hits us from his 16 point, he has to give up the 16 point. Note that after the roll the race is exactly even.

Neil has a mini prime and it is good to get our spare checker over his prime to give us more mobility.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 22/14

After the move the race is even. Thus we are down in the race and given a choice we should opt for an attacking or priming game plan rather than for running. We cannot hit and the most reasonable priming play seems to be slotting the 5 point with 13/5. Neil has a still a weak home board, and if we get hit, our holding/ backgame chances improve. Neil’s gammon threats are not so strong since we already established the 21 point. Still, getting hit means that our racing chances will be gone until we hit back.

When we play 22/16, the best 2 to play should be 16/14. This game does nothing in terms of position, but we may get return shots if the checker is hit, and we improve outfield control if the checker is not hit. Most of all, we create good connectivity between our checkers, and there is still plenty of contact between the black and the white checkers, which means the holding game that we have already in place shall work well. After all, and since the race is still an option I would play 22/14.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---AE-Cb--dC---bbd-BA---:0:0:-1:54:7:6:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20* 20/15eq: +0.562
Player:
Opponent:
65.01% (G:13.48% B:0.53%)
34.99% (G:7.37% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.547...+0.577) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 11 minutes
2.Rollout124/20* 13/8eq: +0.515 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
63.63% (G:14.40% B:0.52%)
36.37% (G:7.97% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.500...+0.529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/20*/15.

I hit 24/20*, and then have choose between 20/15 and 13/8. 20/15 seems clear as it goes along with my plan to try to control the outfield and add another point or two to my forward structure as I try to bring my checkers home. 13/8 does create a builder, but also allows their aces to hit me loose while unstacking. 20/15 seems to be best to me, and as I now have a 29 pip race lead I want to move out and try to get all my checkers home.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 182
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=------E-Cba-dC---bbd-BA--A:0:0:1:42:7:6:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dE---bbe----B-:0:0:1:41:7:6:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.247
Player:
Opponent:
44.07% (G:12.28% B:0.95%)
55.93% (G:17.67% B:0.96%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.261...-0.232) - [99.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: -0.271 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
43.96% (G:12.09% B:1.00%)
56.04% (G:17.96% B:1.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.284...-0.257) - [1.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: -0.280 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
43.47% (G:10.23% B:0.82%)
56.53% (G:15.92% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.294...-0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[39] 24/23 13/9
[ 3] 13/9 6/5
[ 3] 13/8
[ 1] 24/23 24/20
[ 1] 24/20 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/23 13/9

At the start of every game we should be asking ourselves if the score makes us more aggressive and Gammon hungry or adverse. Here we would have to be at Gammon Go (2 away 1 away Crawford) before it would be correct to play 13/9 6/5 and even then it would be 7 milli points. As far as I am concerned if the difference between 2 plays is less than or equal to 10 milli points, it is not wrong but merely a matter of style.

So we should simply play 24/23 13/9, as it is usually correct to split against a stripped 8 point once your opponent has made the bar point with 61. We are also trying to get an advanced anchor before your opponent brings more checkers into the zone.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 24/23 13/9

Although Neil has established his bar point we are still I the opening. A play that works for both sides of the board is often best. 24/23 13/9 is my play. Slotting 6/5 is wrong* not my play. Getting hit is too* expensive, we have* want to split in order to react to Neil’s increased blocking threats, and split and slot is normally not an option. Having written this, I did a rollout and I was surprised to learn that 24/23 24/20 is as good as 24/23 13/9 or even slightly better and *13/9 6/5 is not so bad as I assumed. So I modified my initial text a bit as indicated by the asterisks*. A strong reason to play 24/20 is that this play may become very dangerous after Neil will improve his position by bringing down additional builders for the 5 point and by establishing additional points.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 162
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---bbe---AA-:0:0:-1:41:7:6:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/2* 2/1* eq: +0.058
Player:
Opponent:
51.65% (G:16.82% B:0.66%)
48.35% (G:13.67% B:0.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.045...+0.070) - [99.7%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: +0.032 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
52.42% (G:13.68% B:0.66%)
47.58% (G:13.63% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.019...+0.045) - [0.3%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 13/9eq: +0.014 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
51.59% (G:15.39% B:0.75%)
48.41% (G:14.99% B:1.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (0.000...+0.028) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
4.Rollout113/8eq: +0.013 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
51.72% (G:15.22% B:0.83%)
48.28% (G:14.37% B:1.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.000...+0.025) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/2*/1*.

I recall this is a close choice for money play. My structure is more geared towards priming that blitzing, but I do have nine checkers in the zone and my bar point gives me some diversification of builders if an attack turns into a blitz. The other purpose of double hitting is to distract them from working on their side of the board while they are compelled to enter from the bar. If I am hit, I’ll just enter and play and I still have my three point mini-prime.



USBGF Members: 43 b/22 b/21
Neil Kazaross: 62 24/16*
USBGF Members: 31 b/24*/21


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 171
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 170
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa----E-Ca--dD---bbd-BA---:0:0:-1:54:7:6:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: +0.192
Player:
Opponent:
57.47% (G:9.54% B:0.35%)
42.53% (G:9.26% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.180...+0.205) - [97.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 24/20eq: +0.175 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
55.91% (G:10.04% B:0.35%)
44.09% (G:7.70% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.163...+0.187) - [2.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16.

I have two choices here. I can make the Golden Anchor on the 20 point which will lose fewer gammons, or I can make the 16 point which will win more games since it helps protect my slight race lead.

Since their forward checkers are in the starting position I don’t feel terribly threatened, yet. However, at a near gammon save score where they had elevated gammon value, I’d grab the 20 point. But here, I prefer the 16 point so as to not be hit by a 4 and to help to control the outfield. Additionally, they have some awkward numbers and perhaps will have to blot in their homeboard and maybe I can send back another checker and then have a large racing lead.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 170
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----E-Cb--dD---bbd-BA---:0:0:1:62:7:6:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 38
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDBCAB------------cAbbbb-:1:1:1:31:7:4:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout16/5 6/3eq: -0.980
Player:
Opponent:
1.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.38% (G:1.35% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.981...-0.980) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18.3 seconds
2.Rollout16/5 4/1eq: -0.985 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
1.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.41% (G:1.67% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.985...-0.984) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21.3 seconds
3.Rollout15/1eq: -0.985 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
1.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.46% (G:1.64% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.986...-0.985) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.8 seconds
4.Rollout14/1 2/1eq: -0.987 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
1.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.50% (G:1.69% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.988...-0.986) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.6 seconds
5.Rollout15/2 4/3eq: -0.987 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
1.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.55% (G:1.61% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.988...-0.986) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18.7 seconds
6.Rollout120/17 6/5eq: -0.990 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
0.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.49% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.990...-0.990) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.7 seconds
7.Rollout120/16eq: -0.990 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
0.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.50% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.990...-0.990) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.2 seconds
8.Rollout120/17 4/3eq: -0.991 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
0.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
99.55% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.991...-0.991) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.4 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 6/5 6/3
[ 9] 20/16
[ 8] 4/1 2/1
[ 4] 5/1
[ 2] 20/17 6/5
[ 1] 6/5 4/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/5 6/3

Now we want to stay as we do get a shot if Neil rolls 65 or if we stay for the roll after that and he come down to two checkers on his 6 point then 61 and 51 will also leave a shot. We would still have to win after hitting, so our chances are terrible but it could happen.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 6/5 6/3

31 a bad number in a race with no hope. Thus we waste next to nothing by waiting for a shot that we may hit a little bit more likely than next to nothing. So we play the ace 6/5. But where to play 3 and why? 6/3 loses less gammons. This is certain. Does 4/1 win so many more games that the extra risk is justified? My guess without calculating the gammon price: No. When we hit the lucky shot, slotting the 6 point makes only sense when we cover it later. It will take us at least two or more rolls. Neil will have more than 50% to hit with considerable gammon chances. When Neil does not hit, our winning chances will not improve so much, even if we make the closeout since we will have to open the 6 point very soon again. So 6/3 seems best.



Neil Kazaross: 44 6/2(3) 4/0
USBGF Members: 54 20/11
Neil Kazaross: 32 3/0 2/0
USBGF Members: 21 11/8
Neil Kazaross: 51 4/0 1/0
USBGF Members: 62 8/0


Neil Kazaross wins two points. The USBGF Members lead 4-away/5-away.



Neil Kazaross: 61 13/7 8/7

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 6
pip: 160
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---dE---bbe----B-:0:0:1:41:7:6:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 45
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 69
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDBC-B--A---------dAbbbc-:1:1:1:31:7:4:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout19/5eq: -0.942
Player:
Opponent:
2.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.19% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.943...-0.941) - [100.0%]
Duration: 34.8 seconds
2.Rollout120/17 6/5eq: -0.946 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
2.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.46% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.947...-0.946) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds
3.Rollout120/16eq: -0.950 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
2.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.65% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.951...-0.950) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds
4.Rollout120/17 9/8eq: -0.950 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
2.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.66% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.951...-0.950) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds
5.Rollout120/17 4/3eq: -0.954 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
2.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.81% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.954...-0.953) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds
6.Rollout19/6 4/3eq: -0.954 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
2.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.72% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.955...-0.953) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.2 seconds
7.Rollout19/6 2/1eq: -0.954 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
2.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.71% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.955...-0.954) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28.3 seconds
8.Rollout120/17 2/1eq: -0.955 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
2.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.84% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.955...-0.954) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds
9.Rollout120/17 3/2eq: -0.956 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
2.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.92% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.957...-0.956) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds
10.Rollout19/6 3/2eq: -0.957 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
2.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.82% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.958...-0.956) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34.5 seconds
11.Rollout16/5 6/3eq: -0.960 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
2.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.67% (G:0.99% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.961...-0.960) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.9 seconds
12.Rollout19/8 6/3eq: -0.963 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
2.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.81% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.964...-0.962) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.8 seconds
13.Rollout16/5 4/1eq: -0.964 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
2.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.74% (G:1.15% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.964...-0.963) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.2 seconds
14.Rollout16/3 2/1eq: -0.965 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
2.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.88% (G:1.01% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.966...-0.964) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34.9 seconds
15.Rollout16/3 4/3eq: -0.965 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
2.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.86% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.966...-0.964) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34.5 seconds
16.Rollout16/2eq: -0.966 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
2.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.91% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.967...-0.965) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.1 seconds
17.Rollout19/8 4/1eq: -0.967 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
1.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.22% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.968...-0.966) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21.2 seconds
18.Rollout14/1 2/1eq: -0.969 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
1.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
98.25% (G:0.54% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.970...-0.968) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39.7 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69576932
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] 9/5
[10] 20/16
[ 6] 20/17 6/5
[ 4] 4/1 2/1
[ 3] 9/6 2/1
[ 1] 20/17 9/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 20/17 6/5

I cannot see us getting a shot here so we should just hope for large doubles and make the best racing play which is either 9/5 or 20/17 6/5. I would not argue with either in a chouette. I guess I would probably play 20/17 6/5 over the board.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 9/5

Maybe we will get a lucky shot. Pick and pass makes no sense for Neil and does not count anyway since we trail so much. There is no considerable gammon danger.



Neil Kazaross: 61 6/0 1/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 38
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDBCAB------------cAbbbb-:1:1:1:31:7:4:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 48
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 80
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDBC-B------------dBbbcd-:1:1:1:65:7:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout120/9eq: -0.903
Player:
Opponent:
4.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.37% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.905...-0.902) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59.9 seconds
2.Rollout120/15 20/14eq: -0.909 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
4.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.74% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.909...-0.908) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 20/9
[15] 20/15 20/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 20/15 20/14

I always ask myself ‘how do I win from here?’, and I cannot see us winning if we wait for a shot. I can see us losing a Gammon if Neil rolls 11 but not winning.

Let’s take our chances with the race and run both checkers now with 20/15 20/14.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 48
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 69
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDBC-B--A---------dAbbcd-:1:1:-1:21:7:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout12/Off 1/Offeq: +0.876
Player:
Opponent:
94.26% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
5.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.875...+0.878) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15.3 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 1/Offeq: +0.852 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
93.03% (G:0.21% B:0.00%)
6.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.850...+0.853) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26.3 seconds
3.Rollout16/5* 5/3eq: +0.849 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
92.27% (G:1.84% B:0.01%)
7.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.847...+0.850) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 2/0 1/0.

If I just take two checkers off, I am up 24 pips and have a bit less wastage on my lower points than they do. If I pick and pass, I leave quite a few blotting rolls especially if they dance.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 45
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 69
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDBC-B--A---------dAbbbc-:1:1:1:31:7:4:0:11:10
to play 31

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 80
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDBC-B-----a----b-dBbbac-:0:0:-1:00:7:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.94% (G:1.25% B:0.01%) 75.99% (G:1.21% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.06% (G:0.28% B:0.00%) 24.01% (G:0.27% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.529 +1.056
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.807 (-0.133)±0.004 (+0.803..+0.811)
played Double/Take:+0.940±0.007 (+0.933..+0.947)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.060)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] Take
[20] Pass


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Take

I will do this as I would over the board. If we do the Keith count adjustments for Neil He is penalised 4 for the 2 extra checkers on his 1 point and 1 for the gap on his 5 point, totalling 72 + 4 + 1 = 77.

We have a penalty of 2 for the 1 extra checker on our 1 point, 3 for the 3 extra checkers on our 2 point, and 1 for the gap on our 5 point. Totalling 80 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 86.

Using Trice’s Rule of 62 we add 9 to his 77 to get 86 as the Last Point of Take (in a money game) which is equal to 78% winning chances for Neil in a straight race without contact. Neil will leave a shot next roll if he rolls 11, 22, 44, 21, 31, 42 or 62 which 11 rolls or 31% of the time. We already know that our live cube take point at 4 away 7 away is 22% which would be right on the edge and as we will hit some percentage of the time, even with our open 5 point, that means we must win at least 1% or 2% of the time so we have to take.

When I do the above calculation I actually use the Ross Benjamin count which is the most accurate and also gives 78%, but explaining that would take a lot more space. You can read his paper here https://www.math.hmc.edu/~benjamin/papers/BackgammonRacing.pdf but note that I use a method for doing this which uses memory to reduce the number of calculations.

The take away here is you have to be able to do a pip count, know the take points (or be able to calculate them), know the Keith count adjustments and have a formula to be able to get the winning percentage. And with the increasing use of clocks (which I agree with), have enough time left to do the calculations.


Neil Kazaross comments on the cube:

With my 8 pip lead I had a double after any 65 they had played. If they had run 20/9 they would have left me a few jokers and quite a few other rolls where I hit and make a 5.5 point board losing my market by lots if they dance.

Since they stayed, they had to waste pips inside their board, and my racing lead should be effectively somewhat more than 8 pips. I can often get my blot to safety if they on the anchor.



Neil Kazaross: 66 13/1 8/2(2)


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 48
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 80
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDBC-B------------dBbbcd-:1:1:1:65:7:4:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBC-BB----a----b-dBbbac-:0:0:1:65:7:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.Rollout120/9eq: -0.921
Player:
Opponent:
24.52% (G:0.45% B:0.00%)
75.48% (G:1.13% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.929...-0.913) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds
2.playedRollout17/2 7/1eq: -0.946 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
23.95% (G:0.19% B:0.01%)
76.05% (G:1.13% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.953...-0.939) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 33 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 7/2 7/1
[15] 20/9
[ 1] 20/15 20/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 20/9

Do we stay with 7/2 7/1 or go now with 20/9?

If we play 7/2 7/1, we get a stronger board and cannot be attacked this turn, but we are relying on getting and hitting a shot then containing Neil when we have an open 5 point. This does not look too promising to me.

If we run with 20/9, we will be behind by 8 pips after the roll, but if we take into account the Keith count adjustments of 4 pips for the wastage Neil has with the two extra checkers on his 1 point, then this falls to 4 pips behind after the roll. I did not count the gap on Neil’s 5 point, as we also have a gap on our 5 point and so they cancel each other out.

Running looks like the better plan to me, especially as it will help us get off the gammon.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends:

This is a common balancing task of defensive play vs. offensive play. Difficult to assess. Let us try some math:

Assuming that receiving a single shot (hit and cover either the 2 or the 5 point) when hit will leave us with better chances than in a race with the 20 point being made, we need to balance the risk of being hit with 11, 13, or 33 against the loss of race equity when be bury two checkers with 7/2 7/1. After the move we will be 8 pips down which gives us a rough estimate of 25% in a race. Playing two checkers to the deep points means that we increase our wastage in the bear off. This can be estimated using the pips vs. rolls formula from Walter Trice’s book Bootcamp. 7 x rolls + 1 = pips. Two deep checker represent 1 roll = 8 pips. Since the checkers on the 1 and 2 point count 3 pips the maximum wastage of this play would be 5 pips. The 2 point is overloaded already and thus the additional checker will produce full wastage whereas the ace point might be cleared without wastage. Let us guess the total wastage with 4. Take point calculation: 72 x 10% + 2 = 9; this means we could take a race with 81 pips. Even chances would be by 68 pips for us and the difference of 13 pips would represent roughly 22% equity (live cube). Thus wasting of 1 pip costs roughly 1.7% of equity. So we would sacrifice 7% of racing equity by playing 7/2 7/1. 11 13 and 33 with 4 rolls represent more than 10 % of the rolls. This indicates that playing safe is the better play.

Looking at the rollout shows the limits of such attempts to assess positions with mathematics. Winning chances are equal and the safe play is better because it loses less gammons. Math is complicated and due to the necessary guesses very inaccurate. When there is time in the match and I have still a fresh brain I do such calculations in order to double-check my guess or feelings about the position. The rollout result is typical for many similar positions. When you do not know/see/feel, which play is better in terms of winning chances prefer the play with less gammon risk.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 80
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BDBC-B-----a----b-dBbbac-:0:0:-1:00:7:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2019-05-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 96
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 102
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBCbBC----a------dAbbacA:0:0:1:65:7:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 7/1eq: +0.147
Player:
Opponent:
53.94% (G:9.44% B:0.40%)
46.06% (G:5.59% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.139...+0.155) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout1Bar/14eq: -0.168 (-0.315)
Player:
Opponent:
44.82% (G:10.28% B:0.56%)
55.18% (G:15.39% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.174...-0.162) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[34] b/20 7/1
[ 3] b/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20 7/1

After the roll we will only be up in the race by 5 pips, so running does not seem like a good idea. Also, there will be no duplication of 1’s like last time as Neil hits us with direct 2’s and indirect 9’s.

Now we need to just play Bar/20 7/1 and try and improve our board and hopefully roll large doubles.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: b/20 7/1

We are down in the race (about even after the move; +4 is even when the opponent is on roll). Bar/20 7/ 1 leaves us in a reasonable position, hoping to run with high doubles or to hit a shot. There is no reason to take the extra risk of leaving two blots at this moment.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 96
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBCbBB----a------dBbbac-:0:0:-1:66:7:4:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout120/8(2)eq: +0.707
Player:
Opponent:
70.22% (G:2.35% B:0.04%)
29.78% (G:1.12% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.703...+0.711) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout120/14 20/2eq: +0.468 (-0.239)
Player:
Opponent:
62.93% (G:4.62% B:0.11%)
37.07% (G:3.35% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.461...+0.475) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout120/14(2) 13/1eq: +0.396 (-0.311)
Player:
Opponent:
63.55% (G:3.29% B:0.05%)
36.45% (G:3.60% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.389...+0.402) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 20 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/8(2).

This 66 is a joker for me, as I can get close to home with a big race lead and leave only 6 shots. These 6 shots come with a cost for them as unless they hit it with 44 they have to leave 3 blots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 72
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 91
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-ACBC-BB----a----b-dBbbac-:0:0:1:65:7:4:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBCbBC----b------cBbbac-:0:0:1:52:7:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout120/13eq: +0.129
Player:
Opponent:
52.56% (G:11.28% B:0.34%)
47.44% (G:9.64% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.121...+0.137) - [100.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout17/2 4/2eq: -0.010 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:
50.14% (G:9.19% B:0.22%)
49.86% (G:8.33% B:0.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.019...-0.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 13 seconds
3.Rollout120/15 4/2eq: -0.034 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent:
49.33% (G:13.37% B:0.53%)
50.67% (G:14.00% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.042...-0.025) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 28 seconds
4.Rollout16/4 6/1eq: -0.095 (-0.224)
Player:
Opponent:
47.89% (G:6.39% B:0.13%)
52.11% (G:8.11% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.104...-0.086) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 20/13
[13] 7/2 4/2
[ 4] 6/4 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 20/13

When you gotta go, you gotta go. Neil has that blot on his 2 point, so now is the time to run 20/13. This also duplicates 1’s to hit in two places.

If Neil’s blot on the 2 point was covered, even with the spare on his 6 point, then it would be too dangerous to run, but here we have to leave now.

Normally, I am very cautious about leaving an anchor, but here we are ahead in the race, with Neil having that blot and the alternative is terrible.


Kimon Papachristopolous recommends: 20/13

We are up in the race and running is a good game plan; Neil’s position may easily improve by making the 2 point or splitting the checkers on the 20 point with highly increased outfield control. Duplication of aces makes the decision easy: 20/13 is best.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBCbBC----bA-----cAbbac-:0:0:-1:61:7:4:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/12* 12/6eq: +0.106
Player:
Opponent:
49.27% (G:12.82% B:0.25%)
50.73% (G:14.06% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.097...+0.115) - [100.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 13/12* eq: +0.036 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
50.73% (G:14.05% B:0.23%)
49.27% (G:17.06% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.030...+0.041) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout120/14 13/12* eq: +0.009 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
49.37% (G:12.69% B:0.19%)
50.63% (G:21.89% B:2.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.004...+0.014) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/12*/6.

13/12* is great, and then I have to decide between lifting 12/6 and building 13/7 which leaves another blot but increases my chances to make a close out due to having another builder. The play won’t make a huge difference if they enter without hitting. However, it will be considerably worse for me if they hit, as that extra blot will cost me more gammons lost.

If they dance after I lift, I think I have a strong cube at this score, so I don’t think I have to risk leaving the extra blot. Note that they dance 44.4% of the time so this consideration is meaningful.

I will safely lift. I’ll play 13/12*/6 with the plan of doubling if they dance.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 96
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 102
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBCbBC----a------dAbbacA:0:0:1:65:7:4:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBbBCB---c------bBbbac-:0:0:1:64:7:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.xgRollout120/10eq: +0.392
Player:
Opponent:
60.25% (G:14.34% B:0.54%)
39.75% (G:6.85% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.384...+0.400) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 05 seconds
2.playedRollout18/4 8/2eq: +0.320 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
58.53% (G:11.94% B:0.40%)
41.47% (G:5.55% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.311...+0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 50 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 8/4 8/2
[ 5] 20/10
[ 1] 7/3 7/1
[ 1] 20/14 7/3


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 20/10

If we moved Neil;s spare checker on his 1 point back to his 2 point giving him a 5 point board then we should play safe with 8/4 8/2, but fortunately Neil only has a 3 point board with a blot than has no direct covers. Because of this we can run and get hit and still have 20 rolls or 56% of rolls allow us to enter. 11 of those rolls hit on the 2 point.

If we run, as I will suggest, then we need to run all the way with 20/10 so that if we are missed, we have a good chance of getting that checker all the way home to be safe.

With 20/10 if Neil hits that checker then apart from any 2, 53 also hits from the bar, and 22 will give us at least one checker on the bar against a 5 point board.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBCbBC----c------bBbbac-:0:0:-1:52:7:4:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/6eq: -0.233
Player:
Opponent:
43.57% (G:6.81% B:0.16%)
56.43% (G:10.69% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.241...-0.226) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout120/13eq: -0.711 (-0.478)
Player:
Opponent:
34.26% (G:5.73% B:0.19%)
65.74% (G:19.61% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.722...-0.700) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 32 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/6.

13/6 is safe and constructive.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 103
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 97
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CBCbBC----b------cBbbac-:0:0:1:52:7:4:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BcCBB---bB---b-bBab-c-:0:0:1:65:7:4:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/8 13/7eq: +0.420
Player:
Opponent:
61.90% (G:8.95% B:0.27%)
38.10% (G:4.01% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.412...+0.428) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout120/9eq: +0.378 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
61.01% (G:10.53% B:0.50%)
38.99% (G:8.44% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.369...+0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3.Rollout17/1 6/1eq: +0.364 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
59.55% (G:13.50% B:0.23%)
40.45% (G:7.69% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.355...+0.374) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
4.Rollout18/3 8/2eq: +0.354 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
59.27% (G:13.20% B:0.43%)
40.73% (G:7.36% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.344...+0.363) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
5.Rollout17/2 7/1eq: +0.287 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent:
57.62% (G:11.60% B:0.32%)
42.38% (G:7.76% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.278...+0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 51 seconds
6.Rollout113/2eq: +0.273 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
56.91% (G:11.74% B:0.47%)
43.09% (G:6.19% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.264...+0.282) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 13/8 13/7
[ 6] 7/1 6/1
[ 5] 8/3 8/2
[ 2] 7/2 7/1
[ 2] 20/9
[ 1] 13/7 8/3
[ 1] 20/15 20/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/8 13/7

We have to have a very good reason to give up the 20 point anchor. 20/9 duplicates Neil’s 4’s to hit and cover but this is still not enough.

7/1 6/1 improves our board but leaves a shot, so let’s go with the safe 13/8 13/7 which gives up the outfield somewhat but leaves Neil no shots.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 115
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BcCCC---b----b-bBab-c-:0:0:-1:64:7:4:0:11:10
to play 64

1.Rollout120/14 8/4eq: -0.509
Player:
Opponent:
35.98% (G:5.17% B:0.12%)
64.02% (G:12.91% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.512...-0.505) - [96.4%]
Duration: 5 hours 44 minutes
2.playedRollout18/4 8/2eq: -0.513 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
36.27% (G:4.50% B:0.11%)
63.73% (G:10.63% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.517...-0.509) - [3.6%]
Duration: 5 hours 49 minutes
3.Rollout220/10eq: -0.532 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
35.56% (G:4.36% B:0.11%)
64.44% (G:10.94% B:0.48%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.540...-0.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 55 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 8/2.

A difficult roll with three reasonable choices. I do have to be guided by the fact that I am somewhat behind in the race and they have a 3 point board with builders and a decent containment structure if they can send back another blot. If I get hit somewhere, I will need to roll well from the bar or return hit, as I will be further behind in the race and they will have gained a tempo by hitting me to run home from my 5 point.

Everything I wrote just wrote settles this for me. Both 20/14 8/4 and 20/10 leave 15 shots, so I will go with 8/4 8/2, which while being awkward does build a 4 point board and leave no shots.

One is allowed to roll doubles in this game so here I wimp it up and hope for a better roll next turn.



USBGF Members: 53 8/3 6/3
Neil Kazaross: 43 20/13


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 110
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 107
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BBBbBCB---c------bBbbac-:0:0:1:64:7:4:0:11:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-05-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 133
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BcC-C---bC---c-bBba-b-:0:0:1:61:7:4:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.212
Player:
Opponent:
55.66% (G:9.03% B:0.23%)
44.34% (G:7.08% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.201...+0.222) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
2.Rollout113/6eq: +0.140 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
53.53% (G:8.65% B:0.43%)
46.47% (G:7.57% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.131...+0.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 13/7 8/7
[ 4] 20/13


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 8/7

Making the bar point 13/7 8/7 has to be the best play. We do not want to leave the anchor with 20/13.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BcCBB---bB---c-bBba-b-:0:0:-1:53:7:4:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout18/3 4/1eq: -0.437
Player:
Opponent:
38.37% (G:5.83% B:0.13%)
61.63% (G:10.63% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.446...-0.428) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.541 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
35.25% (G:4.94% B:0.11%)
64.75% (G:7.56% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.549...-0.533) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: -0.549 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
36.33% (G:4.56% B:0.09%)
63.67% (G:11.72% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.558...-0.539) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/3 4/1.

An ugly shot and the only tolerable safe play is 8/3 4/1.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 127
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BcCBB---bB---b-bBab-c-:0:0:1:65:7:4:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BdC-D---bD---c-bBb--b-:0:0:1:62:7:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout18/6 8/2eq: +0.207
Player:
Opponent:
55.48% (G:9.07% B:0.33%)
44.52% (G:7.53% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.203...+0.211) - [71.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout18/2 4/2eq: +0.205 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
55.41% (G:8.89% B:0.34%)
44.59% (G:7.44% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.200...+0.209) - [20.5%]
Duration: 9 hours 26 minutes
3.Rollout18/2 6/4eq: +0.203 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
55.26% (G:9.20% B:0.39%)
44.74% (G:7.63% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.199...+0.207) - [8.5%]
Duration: 10 hours 35 minutes
4.Rollout213/7 8/6eq: +0.160 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
54.40% (G:9.30% B:0.35%)
45.60% (G:8.09% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.149...+0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[13] 8/6 8/2
[10] 8/2 4/2
[10] 8/2 6/4
[ 4] 13/7 8/6
[ 2] 13/11 8/2
[ 1] 20/18 20/14


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2 4/2

“Neil has the stronger board and more checkers back. These are 2 of Magriel’s safe versus bold criteria, indicating that Neil should play boldly which in turn means we should play more safely, so we should not leave any blots that can be hit here.

We have to do therefore play 8/2 with the 6.

With the 2 we could play 4/2, but this will weaken our board, which might be okay as we are not going to be attacking Neil any time soon, as he has two spare checkers on top of his 20 point anchor.

6/4 puts another checker behind Neil’s 20 point anchor – so we can discard that play.

Playing 8/6 with the 2 is good as it keeps our 4 point, which is useful if we do attack later on, and also it is good to have our lot of 4’s when we get to the bearoff. However, I do not like stripping our 8 point.

If we were further ahead in the race I would play definitely play 8/2 4/2, and after a lot of thought, I will suggest that play here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--A-BdD-B---bD---c-bBb--b-:0:0:-1:51:7:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout120/14eq: -0.250
Player:
Opponent:
43.39% (G:7.98% B:0.23%)
56.61% (G:10.07% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.261...-0.239) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes
2.Rollout120/15 8/7eq: -0.305 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
41.92% (G:9.26% B:0.28%)
58.08% (G:12.91% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.316...-0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
3.Rollout18/3 4/3eq: -0.338 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
41.20% (G:8.11% B:0.22%)
58.80% (G:11.50% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.348...-0.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 20/14.

I need to release a spare checker from the stacked anchor on the 20 point or I have weaken my forward structure, while likely facing the same issue next roll. So it seems clear to play 20/14 now while all they have is a 2 point board with a blot in it.



USBGF Members: 31 6/2
Neil Kazaross: 21 14/13 8/6
USBGF Members: 32 13/8


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 133
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BcC-C---cC---b-cBb--b-:0:0:-1:53:7:4:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout113/8 6/3eq: -0.192
Player:
Opponent:
44.94% (G:7.91% B:0.20%)
55.06% (G:8.96% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.202...-0.182) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout120/15 6/3eq: -0.291 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
42.46% (G:7.99% B:0.29%)
57.54% (G:10.93% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.302...-0.279) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
3.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.325 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:
41.30% (G:8.84% B:0.21%)
58.70% (G:10.79% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.336...-0.313) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 6/3.

The waiting game continues.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 135
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 133
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-BcC-C---bC---c-bBba-b-:0:0:1:61:7:4:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BdC-C---bDA--d-cB---b-:0:0:1:42:7:4:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout114/8eq: +0.278
Player:
Opponent:
57.11% (G:8.46% B:0.63%)
42.89% (G:6.42% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.268...+0.288) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout120/14eq: +0.207 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
56.23% (G:6.26% B:0.51%)
43.77% (G:8.05% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.197...+0.218) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
3.Rollout18/2eq: +0.192 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
54.93% (G:10.23% B:0.59%)
45.07% (G:8.26% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.181...+0.203) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] 14/8
[ 8] 20/14
[ 1] 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 14/8

The more I play Backgammon, the more I am cautious about leaving the 20 point anchor. It has to be really clear to me that it is the correct play.

Here we do not have enough of a race lead. If you move two of our checkers on the midpoint down to our 8 point then it becomes correct to play 20/14. But only just, and it is because we would be 18 pips ahead in the race after the roll. But in the actual position, we will only be ahead in the race by 8 pips after the roll and that is not enough.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BdC-D---bD---d-cB---b-:0:0:-1:42:7:4:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.305
Player:
Opponent:
41.94% (G:7.12% B:0.13%)
58.06% (G:9.09% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.315...-0.295) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
2.Rollout18/6 8/4eq: -0.336 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
41.14% (G:6.71% B:0.16%)
58.86% (G:9.04% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.346...-0.326) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
3.Rollout120/14eq: -0.361 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
40.59% (G:6.83% B:0.23%)
59.41% (G:9.27% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.371...-0.350) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/4.

Rather than leaving a blot in the outfield when the race is close and when they have no blot in their homeboard, I’ll just make my 4 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 150
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BdC-D---bD---c-bBb--b-:0:0:1:62:7:4:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 166
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BcC-C---cC--AcAcB---b-:0:0:1:43:7:4:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout118/14 16/13eq: +0.285
Player:
Opponent:
57.35% (G:10.78% B:0.62%)
42.65% (G:8.27% B:0.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.274...+0.296) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout116/13 8/4eq: +0.221 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
55.78% (G:11.96% B:0.90%)
44.22% (G:9.25% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.209...+0.233) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
3.Rollout120/16 18/15eq: +0.194 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
56.52% (G:10.99% B:0.79%)
43.48% (G:12.24% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.181...+0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[37] 18/14 16/13
[ 1] 16/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 18/14 16/13

We are playing a mutual holding game where we are slightly ahead in the race after the roll.

We need to keep our anchor, and make sure we have a flexible position. The move that jumps out is simply playing 18/14 16/13. We keep our 20 point anchor and do no damage to our position.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 166
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BcC-C---cDA--c-cB---b-:0:0:-1:53:7:4:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout123/20 13/8eq: -0.333
Player:
Opponent:
41.25% (G:6.60% B:0.17%)
58.75% (G:8.73% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.343...-0.322) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
2.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.366 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
40.53% (G:8.13% B:0.19%)
59.47% (G:11.34% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.378...-0.354) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
3.Rollout123/20 8/3eq: -0.368 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
40.62% (G:6.49% B:0.15%)
59.38% (G:9.32% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.379...-0.358) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/20 13/8.

I can make my 3 point, but that strips my frontal position completely and my checker back on the 23 point could get hung up. I’d prefer to make my 4 point or bar point than my 3 point.

So I think I should play 23/20 and then I prefer 13/8 for my 5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BdC-C---bDA--d-cB---b-:0:0:1:42:7:4:0:11:10
to play 42

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-27

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 175
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abD-D---dC--Ac-cAA-Ab-:0:0:1:43:7:4:0:11:10
to play 43

1.playedRollout123/20 8/4* eq: -0.143
Player:
Opponent:
47.85% (G:9.82% B:0.59%)
52.15% (G:14.02% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.156...-0.131) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout120/16 6/3eq: -0.222 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
46.89% (G:10.20% B:0.67%)
53.11% (G:16.29% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.234...-0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
3.Rollout123/16eq: -0.225 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
46.00% (G:8.78% B:0.56%)
54.00% (G:14.57% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.237...-0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 57 minutes
4.Rollout116/13 8/4* eq: -0.247 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
46.59% (G:10.07% B:0.41%)
53.41% (G:16.91% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.259...-0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
5.Rollout121/18 20/16eq: -0.274 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
46.15% (G:9.20% B:0.66%)
53.85% (G:18.31% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.288...-0.260) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[32] 23/20 8/4*
[ 9] 23/16
[ 2] 21/18 20/16
[ 1] 16/13 8/4*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 23/20 8/4*

We really want the 20 point anchor. It is good insurance in case everything goes wrong. Neil has made his 1 point so he is very attack orientated.

That only leaves two 4’s – 6/2 which is way too deep and 8/4*. The good news about 8/4* is that it unstacks the 8 point and duplicates 4’s for Neil to hit us so I will go with 23/20 8/4*.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 161
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---AbD-C---dC--Ac-cBA--b-:0:0:-1:62:7:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/7eq: -0.043
Player:
Opponent:
48.42% (G:11.00% B:0.26%)
51.58% (G:10.82% B:0.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.048...-0.038) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 hours 54 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/2eq: -0.073 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
47.63% (G:11.17% B:0.23%)
52.37% (G:11.47% B:0.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.078...-0.068) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 hours 09 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 13/7.

This type of early 62 from the bar is often a poor shot when it is blocked by their 8 point. This is just an inconvenient roll here and I need to avoid dumping a checker on my 2 point without good reason.
13/7 looks better and retains a spare on my mid and duplicates their 2’s to hit and cover. It is important to unstack and go for good points in the opening.



USBGF Members: 32 21/18* 6/4


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 171
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=a-a-BbC-C---cC--AcAcB---b-:0:0:-1:32:7:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout1Bar/20eq: -0.316
Player:
Opponent:
41.80% (G:8.28% B:0.19%)
58.20% (G:11.18% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.327...-0.305) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 6/4eq: -0.358 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
40.63% (G:9.10% B:0.24%)
59.37% (G:13.30% B:0.94%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.372...-0.345) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 8/6eq: -0.392 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
39.99% (G:8.60% B:0.22%)
60.01% (G:13.25% B:1.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.405...-0.380) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 40 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 6/3eq: -0.482 (-0.166)
Player:
Opponent:
37.89% (G:8.60% B:0.24%)
62.11% (G:14.87% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.495...-0.469) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20.

This game for now will be played mostly in the outfield. B/20 puts a spare on 20 point ready to release into the outfield. I do not need to hold their 2 point at this moment.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 166
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 163
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=--a-BcC-C---cC--AcAcB---b-:0:0:1:43:7:4:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-26

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 184
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-aD-D---dC---c-cAA-AbA:0:0:1:63:7:4:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.285
Player:
Opponent:
46.46% (G:11.23% B:0.97%)
53.54% (G:19.92% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.297...-0.272) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 21/15eq: -0.313 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
45.82% (G:10.57% B:0.70%)
54.18% (G:20.34% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.326...-0.301) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 20/14eq: -0.325 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
46.09% (G:11.60% B:1.11%)
53.91% (G:21.63% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.338...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] b/16
[13] b/22 20/14
[ 4] b/22 21/15
[ 1] b/22 8/2


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/16

We can discard 20/14 as the checker on the 14 point is not connected to the checkers remaining in Neil’s home board.

Years ago I read some analysis by Bill Robertie about a similar position where he advised to look at the number that your opponent hits with and duplicate those numbers which are already good for your opponent. Here if we play 22/16, Neil hits with a 4 and anchors with a 4 so this is the correct move. If we move Neil’s checker on our 5 point to our 4 point, then we duplicate 3’s by playing 21/15 and that becomes the correct move (but it is virtually even). I have always remember that rule and it helps me quickly find the correct move without too much thought. Even when it is wrong, it is not wrong by much.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 175
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-aD-D---dC--Ac-cAA-Ab-:0:0:-1:32:7:4:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout122/20 8/5* eq: +0.147
Player:
Opponent:
50.83% (G:16.13% B:0.57%)
49.17% (G:11.13% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.141...+0.153) - [99.8%]
Duration: 19 hours 32 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 22/20eq: +0.136 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
51.75% (G:14.23% B:0.35%)
48.25% (G:10.02% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.131...+0.141) - [0.2%]
Duration: 20 hours 15 minutes
3.xgRollout18/5* 6/4* eq: +0.133 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
49.66% (G:19.77% B:1.04%)
50.34% (G:14.28% B:1.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.127...+0.139) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 hours 29 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/21 22/20.

Doubling hitting on my 5 and 4 points would be the play, if I had builders after the play. Here I must reject it. Therefore my 2 is played 22/20 and I must compare 3’s.

8/5* is great when it works out but again, I am nearly barren of builders, and often will end up with another checker back. I don’t really want a bunch of checkers back when I own my ace point so early in the game.

24/21 looks to be more prudent but doesn’t really try to accomplish anything.

Tough call especially behind in the match, but I’ll choose simplicity due to owning my ace point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 175
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----abD-D---dC--Ac-cAA-Ab-:0:0:1:43:7:4:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-25

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 173
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---aD-DA--dC---c-c-A-AbA:0:0:1:54:7:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.xgRollout1Bar/20 13/9eq: +0.057
Player:
Opponent:
53.08% (G:13.90% B:1.52%)
46.92% (G:13.61% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.044...+0.071) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 50 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/20 9/5* eq: -0.023 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
51.49% (G:14.69% B:1.16%)
48.51% (G:16.35% B:0.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.037...-0.009) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/21 13/8eq: -0.067 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
49.72% (G:14.19% B:1.16%)
50.28% (G:14.91% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.080...-0.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/21 9/4eq: -0.089 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
49.32% (G:12.01% B:0.93%)
50.68% (G:14.35% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.102...-0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 06 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/20 9/5*
[ 5] b/20 13/9
[ 4] b/21 9/4
[ 2] b/21 13/8
[ 1] b/21 23/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/20 13/9

I find it hard to make passive plays, but here I like grabbing the 9 point. Although it strips the 13 point, the 9 point is a good point to have. We will have 10 checkers in the attack zone and spares so that we can make points. This puts Neil’s checker on the 5 point under pressure.

Neil would like to attack us but he has three checkers back and only eight checkers in the attack zone so I think our three checkers on the 23, 21 and 20 points feel safe to me.



Neil Kazaross: b/22 24/20*


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 184
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a-a-aD-D---dC---c-cAA-AbA:0:0:1:36:7:4:0:11:10
to play 36

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-24

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--aE-DA--dC---c-c-A--bA:0:0:1:21:7:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 6/5* eq: -0.031
Player:
Opponent:
51.61% (G:14.79% B:1.32%)
48.39% (G:17.11% B:0.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.044...-0.019) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
2.Rollout1Bar/23 9/8eq: -0.068 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
50.16% (G:12.40% B:0.87%)
49.84% (G:14.90% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.081...-0.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[24] b/23 6/5*
[17] b/23 9/8
[ 2] b/23 21/20
[ 1] b/22


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 6/5*

This is so standard. Norm Wiggin’s called this DUeS (Destroy Useful Slots), Michi has this as Proverb #3 in his ‘Backgammon Opening Concepts’ book ‘fight for the good points – the 5, 4 and 7 points’.

We have a very high chance of being hit and we are ahead in the race after the roll but we must fight for the 5 point with Bar/23 6/5*.

If we move Neil’s checker from our 5 point to our 4 point and made the roll 32 instead, then Bar/22 6/4* would probably just beat Bar/23 9/6 but it is much clearer here where we are fighting for the 5 point rather than the 4 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 168
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 153
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaa--AD-DA--dC---c-c-A-Ab-:0:0:-1:11:7:4:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 23/20* eq: +0.036
Player:
Opponent:
48.74% (G:16.14% B:0.57%)
51.26% (G:14.19% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.022...+0.050) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 23/22 6/4* eq: -0.395 (-0.431)
Player:
Opponent:
39.96% (G:12.61% B:0.55%)
60.04% (G:20.82% B:2.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.409...-0.381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 6/4* eq: -0.402 (-0.438)
Player:
Opponent:
39.50% (G:12.83% B:0.64%)
60.50% (G:20.54% B:2.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.415...-0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/22 23/22eq: -0.409 (-0.444)
Player:
Opponent:
39.03% (G:11.25% B:0.42%)
60.97% (G:17.01% B:1.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.421...-0.396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/24 23/20*.

Bar/24 23/20* goes after the point we are both fighting for.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 173
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b---aD-DA--dC---c-c-A-AbA:0:0:1:54:7:4:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-23

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-CA--eD---b-e-a--AA:0:0:1:54:7:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.Rollout1Bar/21* 21/16eq: +0.264
Player:
Opponent:
56.38% (G:18.43% B:2.23%)
43.62% (G:11.39% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.258...+0.271) - [86.7%]
Duration: 20 hours 17 minutes
2.playedRollout1Bar/21* 13/8eq: +0.259 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
55.84% (G:20.48% B:2.50%)
44.16% (G:10.99% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.253...+0.266) - [13.3%]
Duration: 20 hours 07 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/20 24/20eq: +0.231 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
54.94% (G:14.04% B:0.86%)
45.06% (G:7.80% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.219...+0.243) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/21* 6/1* eq: +0.212 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
54.89% (G:19.56% B:1.84%)
45.11% (G:11.70% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.198...+0.226) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes
5.Rollout2Bar/21* 9/4eq: +0.117 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:
53.06% (G:16.64% B:1.95%)
46.94% (G:12.11% B:0.61%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.104...+0.131) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 28 minutes
6.Rollout2Bar/20 13/9eq: +0.081 (-0.183)
Player:
Opponent:
52.71% (G:15.92% B:1.40%)
47.29% (G:13.35% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.068...+0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 36 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] b/21* 13/8
[12] b/21* 6/1*
[10] b/21*/16
[ 2] b/20 24/20
[ 1] b/20 13/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/21* 13/8

We hit with bar/21* and then have to decide whether to play 21/16 or 13/8 bringing a 10th checker into the zone. 6/1* is too deep to move a checker at this point.

If our checker on our 9 point was on our 10 point so that moving a checker to the 16 point connected to the checker on the 10 point, then we should play 21/16. Since moving 21/16 does not connect to the checker on the 9 point, then we should play 13/8, bringing in more ammunition.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 183
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 155
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaa---E-DA--eC---b-e-A--A-:0:0:-1:55:7:4:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout1Bar/20 13/8 6/1*(2) eq: -0.011
Player:
Opponent:
48.01% (G:14.48% B:0.42%)
51.99% (G:13.63% B:1.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.024...+0.002) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 23/18 6/1*(2) eq: -0.126 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
46.09% (G:12.24% B:0.38%)
53.91% (G:15.60% B:1.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.139...-0.113) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/15 6/1*(2) eq: -0.169 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:
45.10% (G:12.65% B:0.47%)
54.90% (G:16.69% B:1.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.182...-0.156) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/20 13/8 6/1*(2).

A nice counter attacking roll. 6/1*(2) points on them. The final 5 is 13/8, reinforcing my 8 point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 156
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa--aE-DA--dC---c-c-A--bA:0:0:1:21:7:4:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-22

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:7:4:0:11:10
to play 43

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.049
Player:
Opponent:
49.66% (G:16.04% B:1.50%)
50.34% (G:14.25% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.054...-0.043) - [52.6%]
Duration: 17 hours 19 minutes
2.playedRollout124/21 13/9eq: -0.050 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
49.76% (G:14.75% B:1.45%)
50.24% (G:13.80% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.055...-0.044) - [33.8%]
Duration: 17 hours 07 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 13/10eq: -0.052 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
49.71% (G:14.32% B:1.35%)
50.29% (G:13.69% B:0.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.057...-0.046) - [13.2%]
Duration: 17 hours 00 minute
4.Rollout124/21 24/20eq: -0.056 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
49.67% (G:13.26% B:1.28%)
50.33% (G:13.76% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.062...-0.051) - [0.4%]
Duration: 16 hours 46 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 24/21 13/9
[15] 13/10 13/9
[ 5] 24/20 13/10


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/20 13/10

It is hard to go wrong here as long as you choose one of 24/21 13/9, 24/20 13/10, 24/20 24/21 or even 13/9 13/10.

Splitting is always good when we are ahead in a match. Here 13/9 13/10 is also good, since winning 4 points wins us the match.

I would have played 24/20 13/10 over the board, as many players get a 53 reply wrong here. You should just play 13/5* rather than make the 3 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:-1:41:7:4:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout124/23 8/4* eq: -0.135
Player:
Opponent:
46.61% (G:12.88% B:0.58%)
53.39% (G:18.26% B:2.32%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.150...-0.121) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 18 minutes
2.Rollout18/4* 6/5eq: -0.198 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
45.40% (G:12.09% B:0.53%)
54.60% (G:19.42% B:3.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.215...-0.181) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 29 minutes
3.Rollout18/4* 4/3eq: -0.209 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
44.59% (G:12.20% B:0.50%)
55.41% (G:17.67% B:2.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.223...-0.196) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
4.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: -0.211 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
44.83% (G:10.38% B:0.49%)
55.17% (G:16.14% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.225...-0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
5.Rollout124/20 6/5eq: -0.221 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:
45.22% (G:10.50% B:0.45%)
54.78% (G:17.98% B:1.81%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.236...-0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
6.Rollout113/8eq: -0.234 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
44.11% (G:10.97% B:0.42%)
55.89% (G:17.22% B:1.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.248...-0.220) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/23 8/4*.

41 is a poor shot in response to an opening 43 24/21 13/9. The best I can do is to hope they roll a poor return and I can take some initiative.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 162
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa---E-CA--eD---b-e-a--AA:0:0:1:54:7:4:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-21

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 106
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBCBBB--A---A-a--bb-bbbb-:1:1:1:21:3:4:0:11:10
to play 21

1.xgRollout113/11 9/8eq: +1.658
Player:
Opponent:
95.76% (G:62.78% B:1.18%)
4.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.657...+1.660) - [99.8%]
Duration: 36 minutes 46 seconds
2.playedRollout113/10eq: +1.656 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
95.84% (G:62.39% B:1.17%)
4.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.655...+1.657) - [0.2%]
Duration: 33 minutes 01 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[36] 13/10
[ 4] 13/11 9/8
[ 1] 13/11 3/2
[ 1] 9/6


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10

We should just play 13/10 here. This means 66 plays safely next roll and our checkers are diversified.



USBGF Members: 66 10/4 9/3 6/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 61 b/19
USBGF Members: 54 5/1 5/0
Neil Kazaross: 31 no play
USBGF Members: 66 4/0(3) 3/0
Neil Kazaross: 11 no play
USBGF Members: 54 3/0(2)
Neil Kazaross: 62 b/17
USBGF Members: 51 3/0 1/0
Neil Kazaross: 32

USBGF Members win 4 points and lead 4-away/7-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:7:4:0:11:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-20

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 106
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=bABCBCB------AAa--bb-bbbb-:1:1:1:54:3:4:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout114/9 5/1eq: +1.644
Player:
Opponent:
95.40% (G:61.89% B:1.13%)
4.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.643...+1.645) - [100.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 5/1eq: +1.641 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
95.36% (G:61.64% B:1.10%)
4.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.640...+1.642) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 12 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[33] 14/9 5/1
[ 5] 13/8 5/1
[ 1] 14/9 13/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 14/9 5/1

We have to play 5/1 then choose between 14/9 and 13/8.

Either is good and the difference will be minimal but we should play 14/9 as the further from our 6 point the checker is, the less chance of it ending up deep in our board. The higher a spare is in our board, the longer we should be able to delay opening a point in our board, which should increase our Gammon chances.

But here the difference is small.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 106
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 67
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=bBBCBBB--A---A-a--bb-bbbb-:1:1:1:21:3:4:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-19

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 105
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 82
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaBCBCC-------Ba--bb-bbbb-:1:1:1:51:3:4:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout114/13 6/1* eq: +1.444
Player:
Opponent:
87.97% (G:53.14% B:2.05%)
12.03% (G:3.65% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.443...+1.446) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.Rollout16/1* 5/4eq: +1.436 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
87.55% (G:51.52% B:1.92%)
12.45% (G:2.11% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.434...+1.438) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
3.Rollout16/1* 3/2eq: +1.427 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
87.21% (G:51.27% B:2.16%)
12.79% (G:1.99% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.425...+1.429) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 14/13 6/1*
[ 3] 6/1* 3/2
[ 2] 14/8
[ 1] 8/5 7/2
[ 1] 14/13 14/9


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends:

Now we have even more covers, so we have to hit 6/1*.

How do we play the 1? If we play 14/13 then 66 and 33 giving us 31 covering rolls. We would cover with 6/1(2) if we roll 55 next so that’s 32 rolls or 89% of the time.



Neil Kazaross: 64 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 106
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 76
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=bABCBCB------AAa--bb-bbbb-:1:1:1:54:3:4:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2019-04-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 105
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 90
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaBCBBC------ABa--bb-bbbb-:1:1:1:62:3:4:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout113/7 3/1* eq: +1.417
Player:
Opponent:
87.37% (G:52.07% B:1.50%)
12.63% (G:3.93% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.414...+1.420) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout114/8 3/1* eq: +1.390 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
86.82% (G:50.61% B:1.58%)
13.18% (G:4.79% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.386...+1.393) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds
3.playedRollout113/5eq: +1.337 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
89.58% (G:40.59% B:1.31%)
10.42% (G:1.23% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.333...+1.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 57 seconds
4.Rollout114/8 13/11eq: +1.316 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
89.45% (G:39.22% B:1.21%)
10.55% (G:1.68% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.313...+1.319) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 58 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59744817
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 13/5
[16] 13/7 3/1*
[ 2] 14/8 13/11
[ 1] 14/12 13/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 3/1*

We cannot allow Neil to anchor on our 1 point, so we have to play 3/1* and then 13/7 to give us the most covers.

For this to go wrong, Neil would have to roll two 1’s then two 6’s before we enter. This is well worth the risk.



Neil Kazaross: 42 no play


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 4
pip: 105
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 82
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aaBCBCC-------Ba--bb-bbbb-:1:1:1:51:3:4:0:11:10
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10