[Previous] | [Next] |

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 97 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 82 score: 2 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-CBBBCa--A--aAa---bbbbbbA-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 61 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 13/12* 9/3 | eq: -1.074 | |||

| ||||||

2. | Rollout^{1} | 13/12* 12/6* | eq: -1.141 (-0.068) | |||

| ||||||

3. | Rollout^{1} | 13/6* | eq: -1.171 (-0.097) | |||

| ||||||

^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 24943622 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

`USBGF Members vote:`

[30] **13/12* 9/3**

[ 3] 9/2

[ 2] 13/7 9/8

[ 2] 13/6*

**Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/12* 9/3**

We are not trying to close Black out here, so after 13/12* we should avoid hitting 12/6* as this gives Black 11 hitting numbers.

We are trying to make sure that no more of our checkers are hit so 9/3 safeties a checker and makes Black’s only hitting number 66.

If our checker on the 24 point was moved to the 17 point, I would still make the same play. 10 extra hitting numbers for Black is just too many.

and Steve Sax (backgammonplayer@msn.com) teach at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email. |

**Steve Sax recommends: 13/12* 9/3**

White is six-primed here. He wants to avoid having an additional checker picked up so he should make the play which minimizes that.

If he hits and plays 9-3 with the six he will be hit with one number (6-6). If he hits twice he will leave 11 numbers.

By not hitting White leaves 20 shots.

When I was a child I didn’t care for Brussels Sprouts and if given the choice I would rather eat one than 11 or 20. At least that way I would qualify for dessert while still maintaining an appetite.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 109 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 75 score: 2 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=aCBCBCa-----A-a---bbbbbbA-:0:0:-1:65:2:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 65 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | Bar/19 11/6 | eq: +1.094 | |||

| ||||||

2. | Rollout^{1} | Bar/14 | eq: +1.052 (-0.042) | |||

| ||||||

^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 24943622 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays b/19 11/6.**

I’ll keep the 19 point with 11/6 in hopes that their blot cannot make it to safety.

USBGF Members: 44 12/4 5/1(2)

Neil Kazaross: 41 6/1*

USBGF Members: 54 no play

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 93 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 60 score: 2 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-EBCCAb-----------bbbbbbaA:0:0:-1:66:2:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 66 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 19/7(2) | eq: +1.018 | |||

| ||||||

2. | Rollout^{1} | 19/13 19/1 | eq: +1.011 (-0.007) | |||

| ||||||

^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 24943622 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 19/7(2).**

I think it is worth some silliness after 19/7(2), since I can often cash if I roll the bad 44 or 55. I try for another checker with little risk as I have cube access. With cube access I think I’d just close my board.

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 69 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 60 score: 2 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-EBCCA------------dbbbbbaA:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

on roll, cube action? |

Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |

Player Winning Chances: | 94.37% (G:3.72% B:0.09%) | 94.96% (G:3.38% B:0.07%) |

Opponent Winning Chances: | 5.63% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) | 5.04% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) |

Cubeless Equities | +0.926 | +1.879 |

Cubeful Equities | ||

No double: | +1.007 | ±0.001 (+1.006..+1.008) |

Double/Take: | +1.848 (+0.841) | ±0.004 (+1.844..+1.851) |

Double/Pass: | +1.000 (-0.007) | |

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass | ||

Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.8% | ||

Rollout details | ||

1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 24943622 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||

Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |

Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |

Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross does not double.**

As I felt when I decline to close my board last turn, I think I am marginally too good here. I will accept the slight risk of 44 or 55 followed by my opponents entering and will play on here, although I will often have to cash next turn.

USBGF Members: 43 no play

Neil Kazaross: 64 7/3 7/1

Neil Kazaross: 21 7/6 7/5

Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 45 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 60 score: 2 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-EBCCA-------------bbbcbbA:0:0:-1:22:2:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

to play 22 |

1. | Rollout^{1} | 6/4 6/Off | eq: +1.041 | |||

| ||||||

2. | Rollout^{1} | 4/Off(2) | eq: +1.030 (-0.011) | |||

| ||||||

3. | Rollout^{1} | 6/4(2) 2/Off(2) | eq: +1.024 (-0.017) | |||

| ||||||

4. | Rollout^{1} | 6/4 6/2 3/1 | eq: +1.024 (-0.017) | |||

| ||||||

5. | Rollout^{1} | 6/2(2) | eq: +1.021 (-0.020) | |||

| ||||||

6. | Rollout^{1} | 6/4(2) 5/3(2) | eq: +1.016 (-0.025) | |||

| ||||||

^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Dice Seed: 24943622 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

**Neil Kazaross plays 6/4 6/0.**

Some slight risk to push for the gammon seems justified. If I play 6/4 6/0 and then roll a blotting double and get hit, I should be able to offer a strong cube from the bar. Creating a gap on my 4 point looks wrong as it will slow me down later much of the time and increase blotting risk.

USBGF Members: 52 no play

Neil Kazaross: 63 5/2 5/0

USBGF Members: 55 no play

is Neil Kazaross score: 0 pip: 29 | ||||||||||||||||

11 point match | ||||||||||||||||

pip: 40 score: 2 is USBGF Members | ||||||||||||||||

XGID=-EBCCB---------------cccb-:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:11:10 | ||||||||||||||||

on roll, cube action? |

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

**Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.**