USBGF OLM 2018-11-19

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Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCB---AbBbb-d-b--c--A:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 11/5eq: +0.042
Player:
Opponent:
46.16% (G:5.96% B:0.06%)
53.84% (G:2.65% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.039...+0.046) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/24 7/1eq: +0.008 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
44.68% (G:5.71% B:0.09%)
55.32% (G:3.28% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.004...+0.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/18eq: -0.001 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
43.72% (G:6.23% B:0.17%)
56.28% (G:2.48% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.004...+0.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 06 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] b/24 11/5
[14] b/18


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 11/5

After the roll we will be ahead by 10 pips. After we enter on the 24 point we should play safe with 11/5 rather than 24/18 which comes out to 4 builders aimed at us.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCCB----bBbb-d-b--c-A-:1:-1:-1:53:7:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout110/5 8/5eq: -0.007
Player:
Opponent:
55.82% (G:2.97% B:0.16%)
44.18% (G:6.19% B:0.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.010...-0.004) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 37 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.031 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
51.20% (G:1.25% B:0.03%)
48.80% (G:2.73% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.033...-0.028) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 01 second
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/5 8/5.

This is a hard choice since losing a gammon means losing the match! Therefore, making my 5 point isn’t automatic. But if I don’t make it, then I am not sure that I am even a game favorite, as I am down 2 pips and they are on roll and my containment chances are then shaky. Also plays that don’t make my 5 point leave me somewhat awkward and I could still roll something to blot and then maybe lose a gammon.

However, 3 shots may be too many. I think I get gammoned about half the time when I am hit or about 4% extra overall. At a gammon go score like this, my gammon cost is 1 as the added cost of losing a gammon is the same equity as the difference between winning and losing the game. So do I think that making my 5 point adds as much or more than 4% to my winning chances vs wimping? I think it probably does since I should be a definite favorite after making that point, as now I have real chances to contain their straggler.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 113
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 111
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBCCB----bBba-c-bb-c-A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Make Your Play!
Enter Your Checker Play or Cube Decision
Please do not include comments in your submission.

Voting to close no earlier than Thu 11/22 800a Eastern time.

USBGF OLM 2018-11-18

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC--A-AbCbb-d-c-Ab---:1:-1:1:62:7:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout113/7 9/7eq: -0.100
Player:
Opponent:
41.67% (G:3.32% B:0.08%)
58.33% (G:3.01% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.102...-0.099) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.106 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
41.41% (G:3.29% B:0.10%)
58.59% (G:3.18% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.107...-0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout111/5 9/7eq: -0.108 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
41.36% (G:3.25% B:0.07%)
58.64% (G:3.08% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.109...-0.106) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] 13/7 9/7
[ 5] 13/5
[ 2] 11/5 9/7


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/7 9/7

As we cannot escape, I think we should just make our 7 point with 13/7 9/7. Then we will have a 5 prime in place to contain any blot we hit.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 114
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCB---AbBbb-d-c-Ab---:1:-1:-1:21:7:9:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout16/4* 4/3eq: -0.012
Player:
Opponent:
54.04% (G:2.59% B:0.11%)
45.96% (G:4.62% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.015...-0.008) - [100.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout16/3eq: -0.191 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:
43.98% (G:1.69% B:0.06%)
56.02% (G:3.54% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.194...-0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 09 seconds
3.Rollout18/6 3/2eq: -0.256 (-0.245)
Player:
Opponent:
40.07% (G:1.26% B:0.02%)
59.93% (G:2.88% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.259...-0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 40 seconds
4.Rollout111/10 8/6eq: -0.294 (-0.283)
Player:
Opponent:
45.82% (G:2.78% B:0.26%)
54.18% (G:10.54% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.298...-0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4*/3.

This is all about gaining pips and not leaving shots. 6/4*/3, while somewhat awkward, caters to both of my priorities.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 121
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 118
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBCB---AbBbb-d-b--c--A:1:-1:1:61:7:9:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-17

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC----BdCb--d-e----A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.Rollout113/8eq: +0.257
Player:
Opponent:
54.55% (G:8.30% B:0.17%)
45.45% (G:2.38% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.255...+0.259) - [86.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 41 minutes
2.xgRollout113/10 11/9eq: +0.256 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
54.49% (G:8.30% B:0.20%)
45.51% (G:2.33% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.254...+0.257) - [13.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes
3.Rollout111/6eq: +0.254 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
54.49% (G:8.23% B:0.15%)
45.51% (G:2.31% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.253...+0.256) - [0.4%]
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes
4.Rollout111/9 11/8eq: +0.252 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
54.34% (G:8.24% B:0.23%)
45.66% (G:2.40% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.250...+0.253) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes
5.Rollout213/10 6/4eq: +0.251 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
54.46% (G:8.08% B:0.25%)
45.54% (G:2.34% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.247...+0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 50 seconds
6.Rollout111/8 6/4eq: +0.250 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
54.28% (G:8.25% B:0.18%)
45.72% (G:2.43% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.249...+0.252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
7.Rollout213/11 6/3eq: +0.242 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
54.33% (G:7.77% B:0.10%)
45.67% (G:2.07% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.238...+0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 43 seconds
8.Rollout211/9 6/3eq: +0.240 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
54.01% (G:8.00% B:0.14%)
45.99% (G:2.37% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.237...+0.244) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 24 seconds
9.Rollout213/10 5/3eq: +0.214 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
53.24% (G:7.44% B:0.27%)
46.76% (G:2.89% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.210...+0.217) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 21 seconds
10.Rollout26/1eq: +0.207 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
52.89% (G:7.47% B:0.19%)
47.11% (G:3.26% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.204...+0.211) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 24 seconds
11.Rollout211/8 5/3eq: +0.203 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
52.63% (G:7.54% B:0.24%)
47.37% (G:3.14% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.200...+0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 15 seconds
12.Rollout211/9 5/2eq: +0.202 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
52.72% (G:7.39% B:0.09%)
47.28% (G:3.24% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.198...+0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 06 seconds
13.Rollout213/11 5/2eq: +0.202 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
52.69% (G:7.39% B:0.19%)
47.31% (G:3.10% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.198...+0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 58 seconds
14.Rollout211/8 4/2eq: +0.198 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
52.59% (G:7.29% B:0.12%)
47.41% (G:3.24% B:0.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.194...+0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 00 second
15.Rollout213/10 4/2eq: +0.196 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:
52.27% (G:7.51% B:0.18%)
47.73% (G:3.25% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.192...+0.200) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 51 seconds
16.playedRollout224/21 11/9eq: +0.192 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
57.71% (G:1.86% B:0.04%)
42.29% (G:1.48% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.189...+0.194) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 22 seconds
17.Rollout25/2 4/2eq: +0.188 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
52.06% (G:7.35% B:0.12%)
47.94% (G:3.27% B:0.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.184...+0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 35 seconds
18.Rollout224/22 13/10eq: +0.187 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
56.03% (G:3.33% B:0.07%)
43.97% (G:1.72% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.184...+0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 28 seconds
19.Rollout224/22 11/8eq: +0.185 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
56.01% (G:3.26% B:0.08%)
43.99% (G:1.47% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.182...+0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 23 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[9] 24/21 11/9
[7] 13/10 11/9
[6] 13/8
[2] 24/22 13/10
[1] 24/22 11/8
[1] 11/9 11/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10 11/9

We have to leave our checker on the 24 point alone so Neil has some awkward rolls.

Let’s diversify our checkers by playing 13/10 11/9, giving us more chances of making our 8 or 7 points.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC--A-AdCb--d-e-A----:1:-1:-1:33:7:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout113/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.051
Player:
Opponent:
55.48% (G:2.74% B:0.09%)
44.52% (G:2.91% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.050...+0.053) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 23 minutes
2.xgRollout113/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.046 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
54.65% (G:2.80% B:0.08%)
45.35% (G:2.38% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.044...+0.047) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout28/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: -0.025 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
50.27% (G:2.08% B:0.05%)
49.73% (G:1.51% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.027...-0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 23 seconds
4.Rollout213/10(4)eq: -0.058 (-0.110)
Player:
Opponent:
48.77% (G:1.24% B:0.04%)
51.23% (G:1.69% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.065...-0.051) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 15 seconds
5.Rollout213/7(2)eq: -0.088 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:
47.57% (G:1.48% B:0.08%)
52.43% (G:1.95% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.090...-0.085) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 12 seconds
6.Rollout211/5(2)eq: -0.106 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:
45.72% (G:0.95% B:0.05%)
54.28% (G:1.04% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.108...-0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 01 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78163301
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/10(2) 6/3(2).

A very nice roll for me. 13/10(2) is automatic to block their 6’s and to apply pressure to their blot which may soon get pointed on. Now it seems automatic to make my 5 point with the remaining 3’s, but then I look at the position and see 5 stripped points and an awkward stack on my 6 point. I also see that my 11 point is now doing very little because my 5 pt has been made. So then I return those two checkers to the 8 point and look at making my 3 point. This seems to be considerably more flexible and also to have more potential to build a good 4 point board quickly.

What’s not to like about making my 3 point after 13/10(2)? Well, I don’t have my 5 point! But I can often make it soon, and my 11 point now functions as useful builders.

I prefer the more flexible 13/10(2) 6/3(2).


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 124
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 122
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC--A-AbCbb-d-c-Ab---:1:-1:1:26:7:9:0:11:10
to play 26

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-16

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBB-Ba-BeC--Ad-e----A-:1:-1:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.xgRollout113/3 8/3(2)eq: +0.562
Player:
Opponent:
59.67% (G:18.45% B:0.60%)
40.33% (G:4.31% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.558...+0.567) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 06 seconds
2.playedRollout116/6 8/3(2)eq: +0.548 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
62.13% (G:15.27% B:0.43%)
37.87% (G:2.70% B:0.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.544...+0.552) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout116/11 13/3 8/3eq: +0.538 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
61.54% (G:15.35% B:0.54%)
38.46% (G:2.24% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.533...+0.542) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout111/6(2) 8/3(2)eq: +0.533 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
58.68% (G:17.95% B:0.30%)
41.32% (G:4.14% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.528...+0.537) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 03 seconds
5.Rollout116/6 13/3eq: +0.494 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
60.51% (G:14.21% B:0.36%)
39.49% (G:2.77% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.490...+0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90064475
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 16/6 8/3(2)
[10] 16/11 13/3 8/3
[ 4] 16/6 13/3
[ 2] 13/3 8/3(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/3 8/3(2)

If this were a unlimited game or a normal match score then after playing 8/3(2), we should just play 16/6. But at 4 away 2 away with the cube owned by Neil, we have to consider 13/3. 13/3 must increase our Gammons won. Does it increase our Gammons lost? We do not care if it does, Gammons lost are irrelevant, if we lose the game we lose the match so Gammons lost do not count.

I would not have thought that there would be much in it, but we want to get as much equity as possible, so let’s play 13/3 with the final two 5’s as it must increase the Gammons won.



Neil Kazaross: 52 16/11 13/11


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 136
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 127
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=---BBBC----BdCb--d-e----A-:1:-1:1:32:7:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-15

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-C-C--BdC--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 55.18% (G:18.01% B:1.02%) 55.35% (G:18.67% B:1.33%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 44.82% (G:13.88% B:1.67%) 44.65% (G:14.93% B:2.11%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.047 +0.717
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.646 (-0.071)±0.013 (+0.633..+0.659)
played Double/Take:+0.717±0.014 (+0.703..+0.731)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.283)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24002543
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[26] Double
[12] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

I refer to 4 away 2 away as Super Gammon Go, and conversely 2 away 4 away as Super Gammon Save.

At Super Gammon Go, we are looking for Blitzing or Priming positions with high volatility. When we find one of those positions at Super Gammon Go, we should double.

Here we have priming and blitzing potential. It is easier to blitz when your opponent has only one checker back as they cannot anchor. We lose our market and hit in the outfield with 44, 22, 53 and 62. We also lose our market with 66, 55 and probably 33. This is more than enough to double at this score.

Neil Kazaross takes.

A fine score-based cube but one I cannot even dream to pass. The doubling window is very wide at this score where there are some gammons floating around. Note that by doubling me, they render the extra cost of gammons they may lose as meaningless.

Neil’s Rule of 80 is for this exact score. If the number of total wins the trailer can achieve plus their gammon wins is over 80% then the leader should pass. In this position there’s no way that I can expect to lose 60% of the games nor can I expect to lose 20% gammons. Therefore, I have a trivial take.

When should the trailer cube in the early game at 4-away, 2-away? A good rule of thumb is that they usually want to cube when there’s reasonable gammon chances and the total is 70% or more.

Note that the total at the start of the game is 64%. 50% wins plus 14% gammons and they clearly are favorites here with some market losers.



USBGF Members: 31 8/5 6/5
Neil Kazaross: 65 24/13
USBGF Members: 53 24/16*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=a---BBB-B--BeC--Ad-e----A-:1:-1:-1:63:7:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout1Bar/16eq: -0.826
Player:
Opponent:
35.25% (G:7.64% B:0.82%)
64.75% (G:26.55% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.832...-0.820) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.840 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
32.79% (G:8.76% B:1.13%)
67.21% (G:24.77% B:1.60%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.845...-0.834) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90064475
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/16.

Not a nice 6 for me, but I don’t want to leave a second blot vulnerable so out I come with B/16. 11 rolls miss and maybe I can survive. If hit I hope to enter and just play.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 147
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=----BBB-Ba-BeC--Ad-e----A-:1:-1:1:55:7:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-14

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:22:7:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.497
Player:
Opponent:
53.20% (G:14.76% B:0.91%)
46.80% (G:13.65% B:1.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.485...+0.509) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/4(2)eq: +0.381 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
50.55% (G:14.18% B:0.92%)
49.45% (G:15.50% B:2.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.366...+0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout124/22(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.352 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:
51.12% (G:12.30% B:0.97%)
48.88% (G:11.87% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.339...+0.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
4.Rollout113/11 8/4 6/4eq: +0.305 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:
48.71% (G:13.67% B:0.90%)
51.29% (G:16.46% B:2.79%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.291...+0.319) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
5.Rollout124/22(2) 13/11(2)eq: +0.284 (-0.213)
Player:
Opponent:
50.33% (G:11.66% B:0.64%)
49.67% (G:12.55% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.271...+0.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
6.Rollout124/20 6/4(2)eq: +0.281 (-0.216)
Player:
Opponent:
50.39% (G:11.92% B:1.15%)
49.61% (G:14.74% B:1.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.268...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24002543
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 13/11(2) 6/4(2)
[ 1] 24/22(2) 13/11(2)
[ 1] 24/22(2) 6/4(2)
[ 1] 24/20(2)
[ 1] 13/5*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11(2) 6/4(2)

The normal reply to 54 split with a 22 is 13/11(2) 6/4(2). This wins the most games and the most gammons.

At 4 away 2 away this move becomes even more correct.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BaC-C--BdC---d-e----B-:0:0:-1:65:7:9:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross plays 20/9.

My blot on the 20 point is now in mortal danger so I will move it to the 9 point, hopefully out of harm’s way and where it is a builder.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 159
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-C-C--BdC--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:00:7:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BEA--C------------edaab--:1:-1:1:53:5:9:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout16/1 3/Offeq: +0.928
Player:
Opponent:
96.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.928...+0.928) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9.3 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 6/1eq: +0.923 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
96.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.923...+0.923) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.9 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 6/1 3/0
[ 1] 6/3 6/1



Neil Kazaross: 63 6/0 3/0
USBGF Members: 22 2/0(4)
Neil Kazaross: 65 6/0 5/0
USBGF Members: 62 6/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 55 6/1 5/0(3)
USBGF Members: 52 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 32


USBGF Members win two points, and Neil Kazaross leads 2-away/4-away.



Neil Kazaross: 54 24/20 13/8

Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 7

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:22:7:9:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 40
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AFA--D------------fcbab--:1:-1:1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout16/1 2/Offeq: +0.881
Player:
Opponent:
94.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.881...+0.881) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59.8 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/1eq: +0.868 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
93.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
6.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.868...+0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.3 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 6/1 2/0
[ 1] 6/4 6/1


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/1 2/0

I like the saying ‘if in doubt, rip them off’. I have no doubt here, so we should just play 2/off.

To win this game we need to take all our checkers off before Neil does, and we have just rolled a number that lets us take a checker off, so take a checker off.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BEA--C------------fcbab--:1:-1:-1:41:5:9:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout16/5 4/Offeq: -0.939
Player:
Opponent:
3.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.939...-0.939) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30.0 seconds
2.Rollout14/Off 2/1eq: -0.939 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
3.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.939...-0.939) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26.5 seconds
3.Rollout15/Offeq: -0.941 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
2.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.941...-0.941) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.3 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/5 4/0.

I’ll take a checker off, and then the ace hardly matters, but I cannot win this game without 55 or 66 or both, so I’ll play 6/5.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 61
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 33
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BEA--C------------edaab--:1:-1:1:53:5:9:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CAB-H---a--------ecbaba-:1:-1:1:44:5:9:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout16/2(2) 4/Off(2)eq: +0.758
Player:
Opponent:
87.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.758...+0.758) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13.9 seconds
2.Rollout16/2(3) 4/Offeq: +0.752 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
87.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
12.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.752...+0.752) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.0 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 6/2(2) 4/0(2)
[ 3] 6/2(3) 4/0


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 6/2(2) 4/0(2)

We need to play 4/off(2) 6/2(2). We should just take off the maximum number of checkers unless there is a really good reason not to.

Now any 5 or 4 will not take a checker off and cause wastage by moving to the 1 or 2 points – until we clear our 6 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 49
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--EA--F---a--------ecbaba-:1:-1:-1:31:5:9:0:11:10
to play 31

1.xgRollout115/12 6/5eq: -0.865
Player:
Opponent:
6.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.865...-0.865) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6.3 seconds
2.playedRollout115/11eq: -0.865 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
6.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
93.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.865...-0.865) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3.1 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/11.

I’m far behind in pips and fully in desperation mode. 15/11 lets me take off 3 checkers with 55 and doesn’t seem worse if I roll the needed boxes. It does play a bit worse if I roll 44 but I need to cater to huge rolls.



USBGF Members: 54 6/2 6/1
Neil Kazaross: 51 11/6 1/0


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 66
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 40
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AFA--D------------fcbab--:1:-1:1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 82
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--D-B-I---a----a-a-ccbaba-:1:-1:1:32:5:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.playedRollout16/3 2/Offeq: +0.517
Player:
Opponent:
75.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.517...+0.517) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout16/4 6/3eq: +0.492 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
74.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.492...+0.492) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 6/3 2/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 82
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CAB-H---a----a-a-ccbaba-:1:-1:-1:42:5:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.xgRollout115/11 8/6eq: -0.609
Player:
Opponent:
19.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.609...-0.609) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
2.playedRollout110/6 8/6eq: -0.610 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
19.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.610...-0.610) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds
3.Rollout115/9eq: -0.615 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
19.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.615...-0.615) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 10/6 8/6.

This looks to hardly matter like many racing plays. The key is to not make clear errors.

I’ll put both checkers into my board and then I can decide whether to play one off the 6 point with a 1 or 2 next roll.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--CAB-H---a--------ecbaba-:1:-1:1:44:5:9:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-H-B-a-a--a--acbbaba-:1:-1:1:62:5:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.xgRollout18/2 6/4eq: +0.570
Player:
Opponent:
78.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
21.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.570...+0.570) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds
2.playedRollout18/6 8/2eq: +0.534 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
76.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.534...+0.534) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 8/6 8/2
[12] 8/2 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/2 6/4

Putting a 9th checker on the 6 point just seems too rich for me. As it is, any 5 we roll until we clear the 6 point, forces us to play 6/1. If we roll two 4’s before we clear the 6 point, then any 4 will have to be played 6/2. Combine bad 4’s with the already bad 5’s, then we are really giving ourselves future problems by playing the two 8/6.

We should be aiming to have an even as possible spread of checkers on the 6, 5 and 4 points. Here we cannot put any checkers on the 5 point but we can play 6/4 giving us three 4’s before we are forced to play 6/2 with any more 4’s.

So 8/2 6/4 is my recommendation.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--D-B-I---a-a--a--acbbaba-:1:-1:-1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/8 7/5eq: -0.588
Player:
Opponent:
20.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.588...-0.588) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout115/10 7/5eq: -0.589 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
20.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.589...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds
3.xgRollout110/5 7/5eq: -0.589 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
20.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.589...-0.589) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 46 seconds
4.Rollout113/6eq: -0.591 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
20.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.591...-0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds
5.Rollout113/11 10/5eq: -0.592 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
20.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.592...-0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds
6.Rollout115/10 13/11eq: -0.592 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
20.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.592...-0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 03 seconds
7.Rollout115/8eq: -0.600 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
20.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
80.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.600...-0.600) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 39 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 7/5.

I still need to diversify and get the most out of big doubles. 13/8 7/5 looks to be slightly best.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 82
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 70
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--D-B-I---a----a-a-ccbaba-:1:-1:1:32:5:9:0:11:10
to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-D-B-bDa--a--acababa-:1:-1:1:55:5:9:0:11:10
to play 55

1.playedRollout111/6(4)eq: +0.626
Player:
Opponent:
81.30% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
18.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (+0.626...+0.626) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout111/1 8/3(2)eq: +0.615 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
80.73% (G:0.06% B:0.01%)
19.27% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.614...+0.617) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
3.Rollout111/6 11/1 8/3eq: +0.610 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
80.48% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
19.52% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.609...+0.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds
4.xgRollout111/6(2) 8/3(2)eq: +0.610 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
80.25% (G:0.37% B:0.03%)
19.75% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.608...+0.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 07 seconds
5.Rollout111/1 8/3 6/1eq: +0.595 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
79.71% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
20.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.593...+0.596) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds
6.Rollout111/1(2)eq: +0.590 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
79.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
20.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.588...+0.592) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27046734
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[11] 11/6(4)
[ 8] 11/6(2) 8/3(2)
[ 3] 8/3(2) 6/1(2)
[ 2] 11/1 8/3(2)
[ 1] 11/1(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 11/6(4)

Moving checkers to the 3 point seems too deep, and the 1 point even deeper.

We have just rolled a number that lets us bring four checkers in exactly so we should just play 11/6(4).

Yes, we will have gaps but Neil will need 8 crossovers to bring all his checkers in, while we will need only 2 crossovers. I think getting all our checkers in is more important.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-H-B-b-a--a--acababa-:1:-1:-1:64:5:9:0:11:10
to play 64

1.playedRollout115/5eq: -0.586
Player:
Opponent:
20.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.586...-0.586) - [99.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout115/11 15/9eq: -0.586 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
20.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.586...-0.586) - [0.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout115/9 13/9eq: -0.591 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
20.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.591...-0.590) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds
4.Rollout115/11 10/4eq: -0.591 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
20.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.591...-0.591) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 52 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96502739
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/5.

This play hardly matters as long as I don’t go deep into my board. I want another checker on my 5 point so 15/5 does that.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 89
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 78
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-H-B-a-a--a--acbbaba-:1:-1:1:62:5:9:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-DbB---bD---aac-baba-:1:-1:1:22:5:9:0:11:10
to play 22

1.playedRollout113/11(4)eq: +0.310
Player:
Opponent:
65.27% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
34.73% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.309...+0.312) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 36 seconds
2.Rollout113/9(2)eq: +0.252 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
61.47% (G:1.81% B:0.13%)
38.53% (G:1.59% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.250...+0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 59 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[28] 13/11(4)
[ 8] 13/9(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/11(4)

As Kit Woolsey said ‘When ahead in the race, race.’ After the roll we will be ahead in the race by 13 pips so we want to disengage and play 13/11(4).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-DbB--Db----aac-baba-:1:-1:-1:33:5:9:0:11:10
to play 33

1.Rollout118/15(2) 8/5 7/4eq: -0.201
Player:
Opponent:
39.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.05% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.202...-0.201) - [93.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 38 seconds
2.playedRollout118/15(2) 13/10 8/5eq: -0.202 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
39.92% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
60.08% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.203...-0.202) - [4.3%]
Duration: 27 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout118/15(2) 13/10(2)eq: -0.202 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
39.89% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
60.11% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.203...-0.202) - [2.7%]
Duration: 29 minutes 33 seconds
4.Rollout218/15(2) 13/10 7/4eq: -0.207 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
39.74% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
60.26% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.209...-0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
5.Rollout218/15(2) 13/10 6/3eq: -0.215 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
39.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
60.73% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.217...-0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 23 seconds
6.Rollout218/15(2) 13/7eq: -0.216 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
39.29% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
60.71% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.219...-0.214) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 10 seconds
7.Rollout218/15(2) 8/5 6/3eq: -0.217 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
39.20% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
60.80% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.219...-0.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 26 seconds
8.Rollout213/10 13/7 8/5eq: -0.220 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
39.28% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)
60.72% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.222...-0.218) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 37 seconds
9.Rollout213/10(2) 8/5 6/3eq: -0.221 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
39.28% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
60.72% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.222...-0.219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 46 seconds
10.Rollout218/12(2)eq: -0.222 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
38.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
61.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.222...-0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 15 seconds
11.Rollout213/4 8/5eq: -0.223 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
39.17% (G:0.46% B:0.01%)
60.83% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.225...-0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 57 seconds
12.Rollout218/15(2) 7/4 6/3eq: -0.223 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
38.91% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
61.09% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.225...-0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 02 seconds
13.Rollout213/7 8/5 6/3eq: -0.226 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
38.99% (G:0.47% B:0.01%)
61.01% (G:0.57% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.228...-0.225) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 03 seconds
14.Rollout213/10(2) 8/5 7/4eq: -0.230 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
38.90% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)
61.10% (G:0.73% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.232...-0.228) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 18 seconds
15.Rollout213/10 13/7 6/3eq: -0.231 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
38.73% (G:0.39% B:0.02%)
61.27% (G:0.53% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.233...-0.230) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds
16.Rollout213/10 13/4eq: -0.234 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
38.63% (G:0.46% B:0.01%)
61.37% (G:0.62% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.236...-0.233) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 18/15(2) 13/10 8/5.

I am a pip down after this roll which indicates staying but the timing will be against me as I will be held on my 18 point vs. them holding me on their 11 point with more spare pips to play after the next couple of rolls. This means I should advance my back checkers. So let’s make the best racing play.

That looks like 18/15(2) and then flexibly playing 13/10 and 8/5 crossing over and taking care of my gapped 5 point. The contact in their outfield one checker away hardly matters.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 99
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 98
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-D-B-bDa--a--acababa-:1:-1:1:55:5:9:0:11:10
to play 55

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-06

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC---eD-A-b-c-ba---:1:-1:1:62:5:9:0:11:10
to play 62

1.Rollout115/9 8/6eq: +0.470
Player:
Opponent:
70.89% (G:4.77% B:0.13%)
29.11% (G:2.22% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.469...+0.471) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 42 minutes
2.xgRollout115/9 6/4eq: +0.466 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
70.91% (G:4.36% B:0.13%)
29.09% (G:2.45% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.465...+0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 32 minutes
3.Rollout215/9 13/11eq: +0.425 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
66.65% (G:8.30% B:0.24%)
33.35% (G:4.04% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.421...+0.428) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 25 seconds
4.playedRollout215/13 8/2eq: +0.416 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
69.57% (G:2.20% B:0.07%)
30.43% (G:2.14% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.413...+0.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 10 seconds
5.Rollout215/9 4/2eq: +0.394 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
66.29% (G:6.29% B:0.14%)
33.71% (G:4.71% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.391...+0.397) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 09 seconds
6.Rollout213/5eq: +0.379 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
64.52% (G:8.09% B:0.20%)
35.48% (G:4.56% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.375...+0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 46 seconds
7.Rollout213/11 8/2eq: +0.289 (-0.181)
Player:
Opponent:
59.20% (G:9.46% B:0.30%)
40.80% (G:6.75% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.286...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[23] 15/13 8/2
[11] 15/9 8/6
[ 1] 13/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 15/9 8/6

We find ourselves in a racing game. After the roll we will be up 33 pips in the race, and if we win this game we will be 4-away 2-away. So, let’s just race with 15/9 then we should play 8/6, but I could not give a reason why I prefer 8/6 over 6/4 here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 113
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-CbB---eE---b-c-ba---:1:-1:-1:66:5:9:0:11:10
to play 66

1.playedRollout113/7(2) 8/2(2)eq: -0.253
Player:
Opponent:
38.04% (G:1.85% B:0.06%)
61.96% (G:1.22% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.255...-0.251) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout113/7(3) 8/2eq: -0.260 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
38.05% (G:2.19% B:0.09%)
61.95% (G:1.76% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.262...-0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout113/7(2) 13/1eq: -0.267 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
37.71% (G:2.00% B:0.09%)
62.29% (G:1.77% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.269...-0.264) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 55 seconds
4.Rollout113/1(2)eq: -0.269 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
37.43% (G:1.80% B:0.04%)
62.57% (G:1.56% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.271...-0.267) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 48 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/7(2) 8/2(2).

This is still a holding game, and they have a blotting 61 roll. I’ll make two useful points with 13/7(2) 8/(2) rather than trying anything more clever. I now also have better chances should this become a race.



USBGF Members: 43 13/6


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 122
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-DbB---cD----bc-bab--:1:-1:-1:65:5:9:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout113/8 7/1eq: -0.231
Player:
Opponent:
39.23% (G:1.72% B:0.04%)
60.77% (G:1.31% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.233...-0.229) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout113/2eq: -0.240 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
38.60% (G:1.47% B:0.03%)
61.40% (G:1.10% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.242...-0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 6/1eq: -0.242 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
38.63% (G:1.34% B:0.05%)
61.37% (G:1.29% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.244...-0.241) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 42 seconds
4.Rollout17/1 6/1eq: -0.248 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
38.32% (G:1.47% B:0.02%)
61.68% (G:1.30% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.250...-0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 13/8 7/1.

Now I think I should play for more flexibility. If I make my ace point, I may end up with neither my 5 or 3 points made. Therefore 13/8 7/1 stands out. If they roll the horrid 61, every hitting ace allows me to make a 4 point board and that is only a 1.7% parlay. Yes, I play for flexibility and noting the race is getting ever more close.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 111
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 106
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--C-B-DbB---bD---aac-baba-:1:-1:1:22:5:9:0:11:10
to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-05

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC---eD---c-dA-a---:1:-1:1:41:5:9:0:11:10
to play 41

1.playedRollout120/15eq: +0.415
Player:
Opponent:
66.76% (G:7.25% B:0.18%)
33.24% (G:3.64% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.411...+0.418) - [100.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout120/16 6/5eq: +0.377 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
64.90% (G:7.28% B:0.16%)
35.10% (G:3.37% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.373...+0.381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: +0.370 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:
62.85% (G:10.52% B:0.20%)
37.15% (G:5.10% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.366...+0.374) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 27 seconds
4.Rollout113/8eq: +0.365 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
64.05% (G:7.77% B:0.16%)
35.95% (G:4.08% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.362...+0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 20/15
[ 3] 13/8
[ 2] 20/16 6/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC---eD-A-c-d--a---:1:-1:-1:42:5:9:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.487
Player:
Opponent:
27.46% (G:1.88% B:0.10%)
72.54% (G:3.19% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.489...-0.484) - [100.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 6/4eq: -0.497 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
26.73% (G:1.70% B:0.08%)
73.27% (G:2.77% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.500...-0.494) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 58 seconds
3.Rollout113/7eq: -0.503 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
26.57% (G:1.71% B:0.11%)
73.43% (G:3.10% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.506...-0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/4.

I’ll just make my 4 point and hope that their blot cannot find safety.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 146
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 121
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC---eD-A-b-c-ba---:1:-1:1:62:5:9:0:11:10
to play 62

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-04

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbB-a-dE---c-e----A-:1:-1:1:54:5:9:0:11:10
to play 54

1.playedRollout124/20 13/8eq: +0.362
Player:
Opponent:
62.41% (G:10.43% B:0.24%)
37.59% (G:4.75% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.358...+0.366) - [100.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: +0.342 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
60.00% (G:13.13% B:0.27%)
40.00% (G:5.32% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.338...+0.346) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 46 seconds
3.Rollout113/4eq: +0.320 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
59.48% (G:12.06% B:0.25%)
40.52% (G:5.98% B:0.58%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.316...+0.324) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout124/15eq: +0.289 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
59.91% (G:8.33% B:0.21%)
40.09% (G:5.51% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.286...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 24/20 13/8
[ 1] 13/9 13/8
[ 1] 13/4
[ 1] 24/15


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC-a-dD---c-eA-----:1:-1:-1:32:5:9:0:11:10
to play 32

1.xgRollout115/13 8/5* eq: -0.463
Player:
Opponent:
34.99% (G:4.81% B:0.36%)
65.01% (G:15.11% B:0.29%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.465...-0.461) - [70.6%]
Duration: 5 hours 59 minutes
2.playedRollout115/13 6/3eq: -0.463 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
30.23% (G:2.90% B:0.17%)
69.77% (G:6.22% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.465...-0.462) - [29.4%]
Duration: 6 hours 00 minute
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 15/13 6/3.

This is a difficult play at this score, as I cannot use a gammon win and hate to lose a gammon. For money, I’d hit instantly and lift 15/13 since 13/11 leaves too many blots when outboarded this much.

But here after 15/13, I took a long look at the position and replies and it just seems prudent for me to wimp with 6/3 winning fewer games but losing fewer gammons. I hope to build up my board soon.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 126
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbC---eD---c-dA-a---:1:-1:1:41:5:9:0:11:10
to play 41

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-03

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BaB-CbA---dE-A-c-e----A-:1:-1:1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.xgRollout113/11 8/3* eq: +0.359
Player:
Opponent:
56.89% (G:20.42% B:0.45%)
43.11% (G:10.40% B:1.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.354...+0.364) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: +0.339 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
57.27% (G:18.07% B:0.32%)
42.73% (G:9.11% B:0.97%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.335...+0.344) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.playedRollout115/8eq: +0.330 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
58.66% (G:14.66% B:0.25%)
41.34% (G:8.07% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.326...+0.334) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
4.Rollout124/22 13/8eq: +0.323 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
57.94% (G:15.19% B:0.31%)
42.06% (G:8.32% B:0.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.319...+0.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[20] 15/8
[11] 13/11 8/3*
[ 1] 24/22 8/3*


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BaB-CbB---dE---c-e----A-:1:-1:-1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

1.Rollout113/11 13/8eq: -0.426
Player:
Opponent:
39.14% (G:8.07% B:0.76%)
60.86% (G:19.24% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.428...-0.424) - [99.3%]
Duration: 4 hours 46 minutes
2.playedRollout122/15eq: -0.429 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
36.34% (G:5.07% B:0.38%)
63.66% (G:14.55% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.431...-0.427) - [0.7%]
Duration: 5 hours 18 minutes
3.Rollout222/20 13/8eq: -0.437 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
37.45% (G:6.28% B:0.64%)
62.55% (G:17.39% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.442...-0.433) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout213/6eq: -0.447 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
36.90% (G:6.47% B:0.50%)
63.10% (G:17.14% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.451...-0.443) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67794895
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 22/15.

If we were at a more balanced score, I’d bring down two builders hoping to establish some offense, but here, I think it prudent to hop out 22/15 leaving only 13 shots. This also aims at my outfield where I’d like to establish some presence and where I’d like to hit their lone back checker should it run out.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 157
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 135
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--B-B-CbB-a-dE---c-e----A-:1:-1:1:54:5:9:0:11:10
to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-02

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BaB-CbA---dE-A-c-e----A-:0:0:1:00:5:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 58.12% (G:17.66% B:0.37%) 58.11% (G:17.93% B:0.35%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 41.88% (G:8.88% B:0.86%) 41.89% (G:8.61% B:0.92%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.211 +0.556
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.560±0.004 (+0.556..+0.564)
played Double/Take:+0.556 (-0.003)±0.004 (+0.552..+0.561)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.440)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.7%
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58692956
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:85.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 hours 46 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[16] Double
[13] No Double


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Double

We are 6 away 2 away. We need to find a position where we can win some gammons, then double. Although this is close, I think this position will do.

We have a three point board. Neil will not be able to anchor in our board if we attack. Neil has only oine inner board point on his side of the board. We are up in the race by 22 pips before the roll. With a weak opponent, we might not double here, but that is not Neil.

Even if this is not technically correct, we should double here.


Neil Kazaross to play:

Neil Kazaross takes.

I have a very easy take here, as my bar point anchor offers good defense and they can neither win this game nor gammon me often enough to scare me into a score-based pass.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BaB-CbA---dE-A-c-e----A-:1:-1:1:52:5:9:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-11-01

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----a-EbC---dE-A-c-e----A-:0:0:1:44:5:9:0:11:10
to play 44

1.playedRollout18/4*(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0.537
Player:
Opponent:
57.37% (G:16.73% B:0.42%)
42.63% (G:9.32% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.527...+0.548) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
2.Rollout113/9(2) 8/4*(2) eq: +0.511 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
56.60% (G:16.92% B:0.46%)
43.40% (G:9.98% B:1.22%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.500...+0.521) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout113/5(2)eq: +0.442 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:
56.21% (G:14.42% B:0.36%)
43.79% (G:8.90% B:0.92%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.432...+0.452) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58692956
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[14] 8/4*(2) 6/2(2)
[ 5] 13/5(2)
[ 5] 13/9(2) 8/4*(2)
[ 3] 15/11 13/9(3)
[ 1] 15/11 8/4(3)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/4*(2) 6/2(2)

Obviously we are hitting and making the 4 point with 8/4*(2).

For money we should play 6/2(2), improving our board. If we are hit then having a 3 point board is fantastic. We will win more gammons than playing 13/9(2).

At 6 away 2 away, we should be trying to win more Gammons (hopefully with the cube turned), so 8/4*(2) 6/2(2) should be more correct.



Neil Kazaross: 21 b/22


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 164
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 142
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--BaB-CbA---dE-A-c-e----A-:0:0:1:00:5:9:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-31

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:63:5:9:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout124/15* eq: +0.273
Player:
Opponent:
52.47% (G:12.73% B:0.44%)
47.53% (G:12.57% B:1.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.263...+0.283) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/7* eq: +0.209 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
50.03% (G:13.95% B:0.59%)
49.97% (G:15.29% B:1.73%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.198...+0.221) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 13/7* eq: +0.192 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
49.37% (G:14.46% B:0.58%)
50.63% (G:16.62% B:3.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.181...+0.204) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 18 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 58692956
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] 24/15*
[ 4] 13/10 13/7*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/15*

We should hit in Neil’s outfield with 24/15*. This sets Neil back the most pips, and partially escapes one of our back checkers.



Neil Kazaross: 64 b/21 24/18


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 163
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 158
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=----a-EbC---dE-A-c-e----A-:0:0:1:44:5:9:0:11:10
to play 44

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-30

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB-BBBB-A-dA----bbbbbAB-:0:0:-1:00:5:8:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.49% (G:35.21% B:6.65%) 73.42% (G:35.69% B:15.24%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.51% (G:4.30% B:0.24%) 26.58% (G:4.32% B:0.33%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.952 +1.469
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.913 (-0.074)±0.011 (+0.902..+0.924)
     Double/Take:+0.988±0.018 (+0.970..+1.005)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.012)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14235581
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:91.3%
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[25] Pass
[ 3] Take


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: Pass

We have three checkers behind a solid prime compared to one checker behind a broken prime. That’s bad.

Neil hits us with any 1 or 62, which is 13 rolls. Even if Neil rolls a 2 and steps up and we close him out, we still have to escape 3 checkers from behind his prime.

This just looks too hard. In fact Neil is probably not too far away from being too good to double.

So, we should pass.


Neil wins one point and leads 2-away/6-away.



Neil Kazaross: 63 24/18 13/10


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 9
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:63:5:9:0:11:10
to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-29

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB-BBBA---dC----bbbbbAB-:0:0:1:53:5:8:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout113/10 13/8eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:
25.89% (G:4.35% B:0.31%)
74.11% (G:35.41% B:9.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.004...-0.996) - [91.5%]
Duration: 17 hours 30 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 7/4eq: -1.004 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
24.09% (G:3.43% B:0.18%)
75.91% (G:38.27% B:7.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-1.008...-1.000) - [8.5%]
Duration: 18 hours 43 minutes
3.Rollout213/5eq: -1.047 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
21.54% (G:3.14% B:0.16%)
78.46% (G:35.04% B:4.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-1.056...-1.039) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 49 minutes
4.Rollout213/10 8/3eq: -1.065 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
19.09% (G:2.92% B:0.09%)
80.91% (G:31.39% B:3.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.073...-1.057) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 43 minutes
5.Rollout28/5 7/2* eq: -1.091 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
20.26% (G:3.17% B:0.11%)
79.74% (G:35.91% B:5.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-1.100...-1.083) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 10 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 14235581
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 14235581
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[30] 13/10 13/8


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 13/10 13/8

I do not like any hitting play, so we should try to counter prime with 13/10 13/8.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 152
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB-BBBB-A-dA----bbbbbAB-:0:0:-1:00:5:8:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross doubles to 2.


USBGF OLM 2018-10-28

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---aBBB-C---dC---b-bbbbAB-:0:0:1:11:5:8:0:11:10
to play 11

1.Rollout18/6 4/3*(2) eq: -0.642
Player:
Opponent:
31.15% (G:7.65% B:0.34%)
68.85% (G:27.72% B:4.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.647...-0.638) - [95.2%]
Duration: 10 hours 18 minutes
2.playedRollout18/7(2) 4/3*(2) eq: -0.648 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
31.93% (G:7.12% B:0.31%)
68.07% (G:30.27% B:5.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.652...-0.644) - [4.8%]
Duration: 10 hours 53 minutes
3.Rollout224/23 8/7 4/3*(2) eq: -0.665 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
31.33% (G:7.00% B:0.37%)
68.67% (G:29.30% B:4.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.676...-0.654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
4.Rollout28/7(2) 8/6eq: -0.705 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:
29.73% (G:5.98% B:0.40%)
70.27% (G:26.28% B:3.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.716...-0.695) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes
5.Rollout224/23 8/7(3)eq: -0.709 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:
29.35% (G:5.64% B:0.20%)
70.65% (G:23.37% B:2.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.718...-0.700) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
6.Rollout224/23 8/5eq: -0.720 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
29.16% (G:5.88% B:0.28%)
70.84% (G:24.48% B:2.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.730...-0.710) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes
7.Rollout25/3*(2) eq: -0.758 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
28.58% (G:6.34% B:0.30%)
71.42% (G:28.49% B:4.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.768...-0.748) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
8.Rollout28/4eq: -0.761 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:
28.52% (G:5.70% B:0.23%)
71.48% (G:28.38% B:5.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.772...-0.750) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
9.Rollout224/23(2) 4/3*(2) eq: -0.767 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
28.03% (G:5.85% B:0.28%)
71.97% (G:25.87% B:4.90%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.779...-0.755) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33252270
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33252270
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[15] 8/7(2) 4/3*(2)
[10] 24/23 8/7 4/3*(2)
[ 4] 24/23(2) 4/3*(2)
[ 2] 24/23 8/7(3)
[ 1] 24/23 8/5
[ 1] 8/6 4/3*(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 8/7(2) 4/3*(2)

We have to hit 4/3*(2). Then over the board I would try out the options and notice that 8/7(2) gives us 6’s and 5’s to escape and 4’s and 3’s to hit if Neil enters on the 4 point. That’s good diversification so we should play 4/3*(2) 8/7(2).


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 129
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=a--B-BBBA---dC---b-bbbbAB-:0:0:-1:11:5:8:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 8/7(2)eq: +0.928
Player:
Opponent:
74.81% (G:30.56% B:4.55%)
25.19% (G:4.42% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.919...+0.937) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 3/2*(2) eq: +0.604 (-0.324)
Player:
Opponent:
66.13% (G:33.48% B:11.71%)
33.87% (G:6.48% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.589...+0.619) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24 8/7 3/2*(2) eq: +0.469 (-0.459)
Player:
Opponent:
63.30% (G:30.97% B:7.07%)
36.70% (G:8.53% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.456...+0.482) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33252270
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 8/7(2).

This beautiful roll makes a 5 prime. I’ll play b/23 8/7(2) with the plan of locking in those checkers on my ace point.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 125
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 160
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=--aB-BBBA---dC----bbbbbAB-:0:0:1:53:5:8:0:11:10
to play 53

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-13

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-C--adC---a-bbbb-BA:0:0:1:11:5:8:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 6/5(2)eq: -0.495
Player:
Opponent:
35.44% (G:8.21% B:0.33%)
64.56% (G:28.31% B:4.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.507...-0.483) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/24 8/7 6/5(2)eq: -0.715 (-0.220)
Player:
Opponent:
30.81% (G:6.15% B:0.39%)
69.19% (G:33.81% B:6.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.727...-0.704) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38603901
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[29] b/23 6/5(2)
[ 2] b/23 24/23(2)
[ 1] b/24 8/7(3)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/23 6/5(2)

One of the sayings I have is ‘3 Checkers on the 24 point is the kiss of death’. Sounds dramatic, but it always reminds me that I really want to avoid having 3 checkers on the 24 point.

The first three 3’s should obviously be played Bar/24 6/5(2), then look at how to play the last 3. 8/7 is the play that hopes not to get hit then, to make the 7 point giving us a prime. But it will be a weak prime as we will have only one of Neil’s checkers behind it.

Playing 24/23 gives us a chance to make the 18 point, escape or just make the 23 point. It has to be the better move.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--BBB-C--adC---a-bbbbAB-:0:0:-1:62:5:8:0:11:10
to play 62

1.playedRollout124/22 14/8eq: +0.619
Player:
Opponent:
67.40% (G:29.75% B:6.14%)
32.60% (G:7.22% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.607...+0.630) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
2.Rollout114/8 13/11eq: +0.493 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
64.55% (G:27.87% B:4.34%)
35.45% (G:7.68% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.483...+0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
3.Rollout124/22 8/2* eq: +0.278 (-0.341)
Player:
Opponent:
60.31% (G:26.88% B:6.00%)
39.69% (G:12.39% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.266...+0.290) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33252270
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 24/22 14/8.

A straightforward play. I make my 8 point with 14/8 and step up 24/22 before they can diversify to have more builders.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 164
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=---aBBB-C---dC---b-bbbbAB-:0:0:1:11:5:8:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-12

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-C--AdB--aa-cbb--C-:0:0:1:65:5:8:0:11:10
to play 65

1.playedRollout124/13eq: -0.354
Player:
Opponent:
37.78% (G:11.74% B:0.60%)
62.22% (G:24.31% B:3.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.365...-0.342) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 25 minutes
2.Rollout18/2* 6/1* eq: -0.476 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:
34.38% (G:13.95% B:1.20%)
65.62% (G:33.55% B:7.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.491...-0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
3.Rollout124/18 6/1* eq: -0.533 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:
34.12% (G:10.36% B:0.80%)
65.88% (G:30.34% B:6.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.547...-0.520) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 39 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38603901
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[27] 24/13
[ 2] 24/18 6/1*


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/13

Neil has 3 builders aimed at his 7 point and his 8 point slotted. We want to hit to stop him making one of those points but he has a stronger board. Because of his board we are forced to play 24/13 and hope for a better roll next time.



Neil Kazaross: 54 23/14*
USBGF Members: 64 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 143
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-C--adC--aa-cbb--BA:0:0:-1:00:5:8:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Neil Kazaross does not double.

This is a huge money pass, but at the score the USBGF Members have tremendous recube vig due to overage, my then dead cube and my then useless gammon/backgammon wins. I’ll play it safe and roll.



Neil Kazaross: 63 9/3 6/3


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 134
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-C--adC---a-bbbb-BA:0:0:1:11:5:8:0:11:10
to play 11

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-11

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-C--aeC---a-cbb--BA:0:0:1:21:5:8:0:11:10
to play 21

1.playedRollout1Bar/24 13/11* eq: -0.323
Player:
Opponent:
38.23% (G:12.60% B:0.63%)
61.77% (G:24.85% B:4.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.336...-0.310) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 35 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.476 (-0.154)
Player:
Opponent:
35.68% (G:8.75% B:0.55%)
64.32% (G:27.51% B:5.99%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.491...-0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22eq: -0.509 (-0.186)
Player:
Opponent:
34.50% (G:8.85% B:0.43%)
65.50% (G:23.38% B:3.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.520...-0.497) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/23 24/23eq: -0.510 (-0.187)
Player:
Opponent:
34.35% (G:8.64% B:0.42%)
65.65% (G:23.08% B:3.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.522...-0.498) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38603901
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[31] b/24 13/11*
[ 4] b/23 24/23
[ 1] b/22
[ 1] b/23 6/5


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: b/24 13/11*

Although we should hate to put a third checker on the 24 point, we simply have to hit here to stop Neil making his 8 point.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 158
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=aa--B-D-C--AeB---a-cbb--C-:0:0:-1:42:5:8:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout1Bar/23 13/9eq: +0.287
Player:
Opponent:
61.31% (G:25.62% B:5.34%)
38.69% (G:13.90% B:1.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.274...+0.300) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 8/4eq: +0.220 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
59.07% (G:23.93% B:3.87%)
40.93% (G:13.64% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.208...+0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 24/20eq: +0.147 (-0.140)
Player:
Opponent:
58.05% (G:24.06% B:4.37%)
41.95% (G:15.75% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.135...+0.160) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38603901
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/23 13/9.

After entering b/23, my clearly best 4 is to bring down a builder with hopes to soon add another good point or two to my structure.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 152
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 165
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-aa-B-D-C--AdB--aa-cbb--C-:0:0:1:65:5:8:0:11:10
to play 65

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-10

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:5:8:0:11:10
to play 52

1.playedRollout113/11 13/8eq: +0.164
Player:
Opponent:
49.99% (G:14.74% B:0.65%)
50.01% (G:14.68% B:1.64%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.157...+0.170) - [99.8%]
Duration: 9 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 13/8eq: +0.151 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
50.22% (G:13.64% B:0.50%)
49.78% (G:13.67% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.144...+0.157) - [0.2%]
Duration: 8 hours 59 minutes
 
1 4064 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38603901
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[18] 13/11 13/8
[11] 24/22 13/8
[ 1] 13/8 6/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 24/22 13/8

I know that we are supposed to play 2 checkers off the midpoint, but it must be close.

I am so used to playing 24/22 13/8 that I would probably still do that. If the score was 6 away 2 away to Neil, I would definitely recommend 13/11 13/8 but here let’s stick with 24/22 13/8.



Neil Kazaross: 31 8/5 6/5
USBGF Members: 42 8/4 6/4
Neil Kazaross: 64 24/14*
USBGF Members: 66 no play


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-C--aeC---b-db---BA:0:0:-1:00:5:8:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.92% (G:21.82% B:2.89%) 64.42% (G:23.23% B:4.72%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.08% (G:8.62% B:0.31%) 35.58% (G:8.83% B:0.66%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.505 +0.788
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.486±0.012 (+0.474..+0.498)
     Double/Take:+0.114 (-0.372)±0.019 (+0.095..+0.132)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.514)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 29.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38603901
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 14 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross does not double.

Perhaps this just barely qualifies as a money double. Therefore, I have nothing close to a cube at this score.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 153
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-C--aeC---b-db---BA:0:0:-1:42:5:8:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout18/4 6/4eq: +0.479
Player:
Opponent:
64.93% (G:25.42% B:4.17%)
35.07% (G:9.94% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.466...+0.491) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout114/8eq: +0.403 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
62.85% (G:19.67% B:2.82%)
37.15% (G:9.19% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.391...+0.414) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes
3.Rollout114/10 13/11eq: +0.401 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
63.05% (G:21.16% B:2.91%)
36.95% (G:9.66% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.388...+0.413) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes
4.Rollout124/22 14/10eq: +0.339 (-0.140)
Player:
Opponent:
61.67% (G:19.84% B:2.26%)
38.33% (G:10.45% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.326...+0.352) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38603901
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/4 6/4.

I am happy to make my 4 point as they are on the bar. It is worth a few return shots to make a considerably stronger board.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 147
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 168
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-a--B-D-C--aeC---a-cbb--BA:0:0:1:21:5:8:0:11:10
to play 21

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-09

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 42
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBBE------------abbcbbb-:1:-1:1:33:3:8:0:11:10
to play 33

1.playedRollout15/2*(2) 3/Off(2)eq: +0.900
Player:
Opponent:
91.30% (G:6.18% B:0.10%)
8.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.899...+0.902) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25.8 seconds
2.Rollout15/2*(2) 4/1(2)eq: +0.824 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
90.05% (G:2.40% B:0.02%)
9.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.823...+0.826) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34.5 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38545590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 5/2*(2) 3/0(2)
[ 5] 5/2*(2) 4/1(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 5/2*(2) 3/0(2)

We should play 5/2*(2) with the first two 3’s. It is good to put Neil on the bar.

I like taking two more checkers off with 3/0(2) as the more checkers we have off the better. We will win more gammons if not hit, and more games if we are hit.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 78
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 30
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=aCB-BC------------abbcbbb-:1:-1:-1:31:3:8:0:11:10
to play 31

1.playedRollout1Bar/22 7/6eq: -0.869
Player:
Opponent:
8.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.64% (G:3.34% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.870...-0.868) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13.4 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 4/3eq: -0.887 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
8.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.79% (G:4.44% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.888...-0.885) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14.4 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38603901
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays b/22 7/6.

Now I think I need to play 7/6 rather than 4/3 as after 4/3, there are only a couple 6’s that allow me to stay next turn without breaking my board and the lost crossover could result in a bit more fluke gammons lost.



USBGF Members: 41 5/0
Neil Kazaross: 63 22/13
USBGF Members: 52 5/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 43 13/6
USBGF Members: 42 4/0 2/0
Neil Kazaross: 64 6/0 4/0
USBGF Members: 33 5/0 4/0


USBGF Members win two points. Neil leads 3-away/6-away.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 167
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 167
score: 5

is USBGF Members
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:5:8:0:11:10
to play 52

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-08

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBDC--B---b--a-db-bb--:1:-1:1:61:3:8:0:11:10
to play 61

1.Rollout110/4 6/5eq: +0.840
Player:
Opponent:
88.20% (G:6.75% B:0.12%)
11.80% (G:0.54% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.838...+0.842) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 28 seconds
2.playedRollout17/1 6/5eq: +0.834 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
88.20% (G:6.23% B:0.11%)
11.80% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.831...+0.836) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 09 seconds
3.Rollout110/9 10/4eq: +0.823 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
87.48% (G:6.67% B:0.11%)
12.52% (G:0.48% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.821...+0.826) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 57 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38545590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[22] 7/1 6/5
[ 6] 10/4 6/5
[ 1] 10/9 10/4


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 10/4 6/5

For money, I would pay later with 7/1 6/5. I hate the thought of Neil rolling a 62 and hitting us. 10/4 6/5 gives us a better distribution, but when since Neil owns the 23 point anchor we would like to strip the 7 point and clear it fast.

Here it is probably slightly wrong to play 7/1 6/5.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 82
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AbBBCCB--B---b--a-db-bb--:1:-1:-1:11:3:8:0:11:10
to play 11

1.playedRollout16/4(2)eq: -0.819
Player:
Opponent:
12.49% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
87.51% (G:6.28% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.821...-0.817) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout111/9 6/4eq: -0.826 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
12.31% (G:0.47% B:0.00%)
87.69% (G:6.65% B:0.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.829...-0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 21 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38545590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 6/4(2).

I make my 4 point and now have a 5 prime board and can now happily hit any blots they may leave.



USBGF Members: 53 10/7 10/5


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 116
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 74
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-AbBBDCC------b--a-bbbbb--:1:-1:-1:63:3:8:0:11:10
to play 63

1.playedRollout111/8 11/5eq: -0.831
Player:
Opponent:
11.41% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
88.59% (G:5.54% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.832...-0.831) - [99.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 27 seconds
2.xgRollout111/5 8/5eq: -0.833 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
11.34% (G:0.45% B:0.02%)
88.66% (G:5.55% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.834...-0.832) - [1.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout111/2eq: -0.834 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
11.43% (G:0.44% B:0.01%)
88.57% (G:5.76% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.835...-0.833) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38545590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 11/8 11/5.

There won’t be much if any meaningful difference between the top 3 plays. I’ll avoid 11/2, as I see no reason to put a checker on my 2 point yet. 11/8 11/5 retains two 6’s before I am forced to run from the 23 point, but these 6’s are forced to my 2 point and if they come with large numbers I may have to break my board. But if they roll small numbers, I really don’t want to be forced to break anchor as they’ll have builders ready to close me out. 11/5 8/5 seems less awkward and perhaps is best, but the difference has to be tiny. I think I’ll save a 2nd 6 since my 5 prime board will often result in a win if I can hit soon.



USBGF Members: 63 7/1 6/3


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 107
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 65
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-BbCBDBB---------b-bcbbb--:1:-1:-1:64:3:8:0:11:10
to play 64

1.xgRollout18/4 8/2eq: -0.807
Player:
Opponent:
12.14% (G:0.83% B:0.08%)
87.86% (G:4.91% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.809...-0.805) - [99.9%]
Duration: 5 minutes 29 seconds
2.playedRollout18/2 5/1eq: -0.811 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
12.23% (G:0.93% B:0.05%)
87.77% (G:5.41% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.813...-0.809) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.875 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
9.84% (G:0.40% B:0.03%)
90.16% (G:6.32% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.877...-0.873) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 37 seconds
4.Rollout123/13eq: -0.928 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:
8.52% (G:0.40% B:0.01%)
91.48% (G:8.46% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.930...-0.926) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout123/17 8/4eq: -0.938 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
8.45% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
91.55% (G:9.14% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.940...-0.936) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38545590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 8/2 5/1.

I certainly don’t want to run yet, so my 6 is 8/2 and then I have to decide whether to slot my ace point. If I slot, I’ll retain a 6 to play rather than being forced to run, although unless I roll 61 I will be forced to break my board if I don’t run. If I slot, I have 15 rolls to close my board vs. only 7 if I play 8/4.

But if I slot, I have to worry about covering if I hit, but I’ll have a 5 prime board and they’ll have broken their board so I may end up ok even if they return hit.

I also need to have a closed board to consider recubing for match if I get a quick hit.

I will play the slot.



USBGF Members: 62 7/5 7/1


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 97
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 57
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CbCBEB----------a-bbbbca-:1:-1:-1:53:3:8:0:11:10
to play 53

1.playedRollout123/18 8/5eq: -0.898
Player:
Opponent:
8.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.94% (G:5.19% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.899...-0.898) - [76.2%]
Duration: 13 minutes 41 seconds
2.xgRollout123/15eq: -0.899 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:
7.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.12% (G:4.92% B:0.03%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.900...-0.898) - [23.8%]
Duration: 14 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38545590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 23/18 8/5.

If I don’t run I must break my board and I don’t want to do that. If I do run there are only two builders to hit me. So I hop with 23/18 and bring in a builder for my ace point with 8/5 even though I don’t yet expect to waste pips with 5/1 to cover. But if I have hit a blot, I’ll certainly cover with a 4. Of course, I’ll cover with a 1 regardless.



USBGF Members: 61 6/5 6/0
Neil Kazaross: 61 18/12 2/1
USBGF Members: 53 5/0 3/0


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 82
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 42
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBBE-------a-----bcbbbb-:1:-1:-1:51:3:8:0:11:10
to play 51

1.playedRollout112/7 5/4eq: -0.838
Player:
Opponent:
9.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
90.42% (G:2.84% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.840...-0.837) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds
2.Rollout112/6eq: -0.849 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
8.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.45% (G:2.03% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.850...-0.847) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49.2 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38545590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 12/7 5/4.

They now have significant chances to blot over the next couple rolls, so I think it is best to not be forced to run away with my next 6. Therefore, I’ll waste a pip with 12/7 5/4 as I am very unlikely to lose a gammon anyhow and my bearoff isn’t made much worse by 5/4 if I hit.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 76
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 42
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=-CaBBE------------abbcbbb-:1:-1:1:33:3:8:0:11:10
to play 33

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

USBGF OLM 2018-10-07

[Previous] [Next]

Last vote on the OLM:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 101
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBB-BCBBB---b--abda-ab--:1:-1:1:33:3:8:0:11:10
to play 33

1.xgRollout19/6 8/5(2) 7/4eq: +0.830
Player:
Opponent:
87.91% (G:6.41% B:0.15%)
12.09% (G:0.43% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.829...+0.831) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 8/5(2)eq: +0.828 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
88.14% (G:5.83% B:0.11%)
11.86% (G:0.37% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.827...+0.829) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
3.playedRollout29/6(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.825 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:
87.69% (G:6.30% B:0.15%)
12.31% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.822...+0.827) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds
4.Rollout210/7 9/6 8/5(2)eq: +0.821 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
87.59% (G:6.28% B:0.15%)
12.41% (G:0.42% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.819...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 28 seconds
5.Rollout28/5(2) 7/1eq: +0.812 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
87.26% (G:6.05% B:0.13%)
12.74% (G:0.46% B:0.02%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.809...+0.814) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 58 seconds
6.Rollout210/7 10/4 9/6eq: +0.648 (-0.181)
Player:
Opponent:
80.25% (G:4.94% B:0.09%)
19.75% (G:1.15% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.646...+0.651) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 02 seconds
7.Rollout210/7(2) 9/6(2)eq: +0.620 (-0.209)
Player:
Opponent:
79.28% (G:4.34% B:0.07%)
20.72% (G:1.21% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.618...+0.623) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61770841
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61770841
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

USBGF Members vote:
[19] 9/6(2) 8/5(2)
[ 3] 9/6 8/5(2) 7/4
[ 2] 8/5(2) 7/1
[ 1] 10/7 10/4 9/6
[ 1] 10/7(2) 9/6(2)
[ 1] 10/4 8/5(2)
[ 1] 10/4(2)


Grant Hoffman (grant@hoffman.kiwi)
teaches at the Backgammon Learning Center, and can be contacted for lessons via email.

Grant Hoffman recommends: 9/6 8/5(2) 7/4

We obviously have to make the 5 point with 8/5(2).

The 7 point is always dangerous to own when our opponent owns the 2 point anchor – see Kit Woolsey’s excellent article ‘Bearing in Safely’. So we want to strip the 7 point with 7/4. That leaves only 9/6 as a viable fourth 3.

So 9/6 8/5(2) 7/4 is my choice.


Neil Kazaross to play:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 126
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBDC--B---b--abda-ab--:1:-1:-1:42:3:8:0:11:10
to play 42

1.playedRollout17/5 7/3eq: -0.831
Player:
Opponent:
12.01% (G:0.35% B:0.02%)
87.99% (G:6.37% B:0.12%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.833...-0.829) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.840 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
11.51% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
88.49% (G:6.25% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.842...-0.838) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 26 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38545590
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Neil Kazaross plays 7/5 7/3.

Making my 4 point seems best for closing my board eventually. But if I leave 2 blots in my board, I fear that they will leave me an indirect shot with some rolls to smooth out their position. So I think it seems best to just cover my slots.


Today’s vote:

is Neil Kazaross

score: 8
pip: 120
                         
11 point match
                          pip: 89
score: 3

is USBGF Members
XGID=--bBBBDC--B---b--a-db-bb--:1:-1:1:61:3:8:0:11:10
to play 61

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10