ASK THE PRO! Q&A 8

QUESTION 8:  From Dan Pelton

I understand how a position could be a clear double/take for money;  what I don’t understand is how to use the MET to determine whether this is a take at various scores.

ANSWER:

Dear Dan:

Rather than get specific about the single position that you sent me, in order to make double and take decisions properly at different match scores we must know the take points, price of gammons, and doubling windows for each score.

Let’s take a simple racing position with no gammons, and let’s say that your winning chances are 24%.  First, how do you know when you have 24%?  There are several approaches, and depending on the position you can estimate this from reference positions, experience, or by using Trice, Keith, Kleinman, or EPC to help you.

But assuming you now have an estimate of your winning chances, all you need to know is your take point.  At 2away/2away your take point is 32 percent–it would be a big drop.  At 3away/3away, with several rolls left, you would take with 25 percent…so it would be a small drop.  At 7away/7away your take point is around 21.5 (same as money or unlimited), so you would take.

Giving the cube is easy if it’s a drop or if it’s close…just double.  But if it’s a take, then your major consideration is “market losers.”

The same concept is true for positions that have contact and possible gammons, except that it is complicated by the gammon estimates and the varying value of gammons.

So this is the short answer to your question.  The longer answer is you truly need to know and learn all your take points and gammon values, or you need to learn how to calculate take points from match equity based on risks and rewards, and then you have to make intelligent guesses and estimates of wins and gammons.

This is why match play is so much more complex and challenging than money play.  And this is why we must put in a lot of time and study to play matches well.

Thanks for the question!

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